Search results for: Informal settlements

Authors: Folayele Oluyemi Akindeju, Tobi Joseph Ajoro

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The city as a complex system exhibiting chaotic behaviour is in a state of constant change, in response to prevailing social, economic, environmental and technological factors. Without adequate investigation and control mechanisms to tame the sporadic nature of growth in most urban areas of cities in developing regions, organic sprawling visibly manifests with its attendant problems, most especially at peri-urban areas. The Lagos Megacity region in southwest Nigeria, as one of the largest megacities in the world contends with the challenges of sprawling at the peri-urban areas especially along emerging transit corridors. Due to the seemingly unpredictable nature of this growth, this paper attempts a morphological investigation into the growth of peri-urban settlements along the Mowe-Ibafo transit corridor of the Megacity region over a temporal space of three decades (1984-2014). This study adopts the application of the Fractal Analysis and Regression Analysis methods through the correlation of population density and fractal dimension values to establish the pattern and nature of growth, due to the inadequacies of conventional methods of urban analysis which cannot deal with the unpredictability of such complex urban forms as the peri-urban areas. It was deduced that the dynamic urban expansion in the last three decades resulted in about 74.2% urban change rate between 1984 and 2000 and 63.4% urban change rate between 2000 and 2014. With the R2 value between the fractal dimension and population density been 1, the regression model indicates a positive correlation between Fractal Dimension (D) and Population Density (pop/km2), where the increase in the population density from 5740 pop/km2 to 8060 pop/km2 and later decrease to 7580 pop/km2 leads to an increase in the fractal dimension of urban growth from 1.451 in 1984 to 1.853 in 2014. This, therefore, justifies the ability to predict and determine the nature and direction of growth of complex entities and is sufficient to substantially suggest the need for adequate policy framework towards sustainable urban planning and infrastructural provision in the Peri-urban areas.

Keywords: fractal analysis, Lagos Megacity, peri-urban, sprawling, urban morphology

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Authors: Hisham Mortada

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Transition in the urban configuration of Arab cities has never been as radical and visible as it has been since the turn of the last century. The emergence of new cities near historical settlements of Arabia has spawned a series of developments in and around the old city precincts. New developments are based on advanced technology and conform to globally prevalent standards of city planning, superseding the vernacular arrangements based on traditional norms that guided so-called ‘city planning’. Evidence to this fact are the extant Arab buildings present at the urban core of modern cities, which inform us about intricate spatial organization. Organization that subscribed to multiple norms such as, satisfying gender segregation and socialization, economic sustainability, and ensuring security and environmental coherence etc., within settlement compounds. Several participating factors achieved harmony in such an inclusive city—an organization that was challenged and apparently replaced by the new planning order in the face of growing needs of globalized, economy-centric and high-tech models of development. Communities found it difficult to acclimatize with the new western planning models that were implemented at a very large scale throughout the Kingdom, which later experienced spatial re-structuring to suit users’ needs. A closer look the ancient city of Yanbu, now flanked with such new developments, allows us to differentiate and track the beginnings of this unprecedented transition in settlement formations. This paper aims to elaborate the Arabian context offered to both the ‘traditional’ and ‘modern’ planning approaches, in order to understand challenges and solutions offered by both at different times. In the process it will also establish the inconsistencies and conflicts that arose with the shift in planning paradigm, from traditional-'cultural norms’, to modern-'physical planning', in the Arabian context. Thus, by distinguishing the two divergent planning philosophies, their impact of the Arabian morphology, relevance to lifestyle and suitability to the biophysical environment, it concludes with a perspective on sustainability particularly for in case of Yanbu.

Keywords: Yanbu, traditional architecture, Hijaz, coral building, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: forest, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Tania Ali Soomro

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In 1839, the British, after the annexation of the port city of Karachi, established a new urban centre consisting of various quarters and introduced new settlements there. These quarters were out of the boundaries of fortified native old area and now contain much of the oldest parts of the city and signify the colonial history of Karachi, in particular the Saddar Bazaar and the neighboring areas of Kharadar and Mithadar. These quarters bestow a mix of functional typology built in a hybrid form of construction - an adaptation of the western architectural attributes to regional requirements and characteristics. This approach is referred to as the Anglo Vernacular, Colonial or the Domestic Gothic architectural form. This research paper investigates the historical and architectural value of one such property: the Empress Market designed by then Municipal Architect, Ar. James Strachan in 1889 as a commemorative monument for the jubilee of Her Majesty the Queen Victoria; Empress of British India, at that time. This paper presents information on the present conservation status of the market building and highlights its role as a catalyst to the community interconnection. This building has survived to present day and functioned well, despite undergoing numerous transformations. A detailed analysis of the bio-degradation (Natural-Chemical dissolution of material) and the bio-deterioration (Manmade-Negative state change of the material) of the building, based on the examination of the prevailing causes of these bio-alterations is carried out, and is presented in form of a damage atlas containing both the categories of bio-alteration/ changes occurred to the building over the time. The research methodology followed in this paper starts with the available archival analysis, physical observation, photographic documentation, the statistics review and the interviews with the direct and indirect stakeholders. The results and findings of this research portray that these bio-alterations and changes are the essential part of the life cycle of Empress Market building which illustrate the historic development of the premise and therefore ought to be given due importance (depending upon their condition) while developing the conservation plan for the building.

Keywords: British colonial architecture, bio-alteration, bio-degradation, bio-deterioration, domestic gothic architectural form

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Authors: Sankhanil Das, Arunava Dasgupta, Keya Mitra

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This paper investigates the relationship between natural ecological systems and modern urban morphology. Over years, ecological conditions represented by natural resources such as natural landforms, systems of water, urban geography and land covers have been a significant driving factor of how settlements have formed, expanded and functioned. These have played a pivotal role in formation of the community character and the cultural identity of the urban spaces, and have steered cultural behavior within these settings. Such cultural behaviors have been instrumental in transforming mere spaces to places with meaning and symbolism. The natural process of city formation is principally founded upon the idea of balance and harmony, mostly in a subconscious manner. Reimaging such processes of natural evolution, this paper systematically builds a development model that generates a balance between environment and development, with specific focus on the Urban-Rural fringe areas in the Temple Town of Puri, in Eastern India. Puri represents a unique cross section of ecological landscape, cultural practices and religious symbolism with a very rich history and a vibrant heritage. While the city centre gets more and more crowded by tourists and pilgrims to accommodate related businesses, the original residents of Puri relocate to move towards the urban peripheral areas for better living conditions, gradually converting agricultural lands into non agricultural uses. This rapid spread into the rural hinterland is devoid of any connection with the rich cultural identity of Puri. These past four decades of ‘development’ has been at the cost of 810 Hectares of ecological Lake systems in the region. Invaluable ecological resources at urban rural edges are often viewed as hindrances to development and conceptualized as taking away from the image of the city. This paper attempts to understand the language of development over years on existing natural resources through topo-analysis and proposes a sustainable approach of development using different planning tools, with ecological resources as the pivotal factor of development.

Keywords: livability, sustainable development, urbanization, urban-rural edge

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Authors: Hanwei Cheng, Chengbei Xu, Yijie Wang

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More and more college students are accustomed to surfing the Internet everyday. As community members, college students have ability to express opinions and participate in social affairs, they not only accept information passively, but also voice their concerns on the Internet. We interpret the online discourses featured with anonymization, so it helps us more effectively and conveniently understand the behaviors and thoughts of college students, and educators can thus grasp the scales and directions in guiding online language. We analyzed online comments in both content and form aspects in one student forum (named Dandan, the BNU’s campus forum), and through methods of literature review and interview, we found that in term of content, college students pay attention to practical information online, emphasize on personal development and pursue hot issues; in term of form, college students' online language displays cross-border quality sometimes under the general feature of normative, and they often explore a certain topic in the form of question or discussion, and they like to show feelings in ironic and stream-of-consciousness ways. It is argued that college students intend to establish a community to facilitate personal development and meet emotional needs through the student forum, and by making comments at the forum they are also able to get involved in public affairs. We should pay attention to problems of college students' online discourse, such as boundary issues (like informal advertisement and information authenticity), emotional issues and the spread of gossip. Some possible solutions to solving online discourse problems can be applied, like we can improve access systems of student forum, clarify principles of Internet langue use, change oversimplified management approaches and use some other tactics, in order to form a mechanism of student self-regulation, also deepen the trust and cooperation between school administrators and students.

Keywords: online language, youth discourse, content and form, implication and strategy

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Authors: Marwa Ben Khalifa, Zeineb Ben Salem, Wissem Frikha

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The purpose of the present work is to study the consolidation behavior of highly compressible Tunis soft soil “TSS” by means of prefabricated vertical drains (PVD’s) associated to preloading based on laboratory and field investigations. In the first hand, the field performance of PVD’s on the layer of Tunis soft soil was analysed based on the case study of the construction of embankments of “Radès la Goulette” bridge project. PVD’s Geosynthetics drains types were installed with triangular grid pattern until 10 m depth associated with step-by-step surcharge. The monitoring of the soil settlement during preloading stage for Radès La Goulette Bridge project was provided by an instrumentation composed by various type of tassometer installed in the soil. The distribution of water pressure was monitored through piezocone penetration. In the second hand, a laboratory reduced tests are performed on TSS subjected also to preloading and improved with PVD's Mebradrain 88 (Mb88) type. A specific test apparatus was designed and manufactured to study the consolidation. Two series of consolidation tests were performed on TSS specimens. The first series included consolidation tests for soil improved by one central drain. In thesecond series, a triangular mesh of three geodrains was used. The evolution of degree of consolidation and measured settlements versus time derived from laboratory tests and field data were presented and discussed. The obtained results have shown that PVD’s have considerably accelerated the consolidation of Tunis soft soil by shortening the drainage path. The model with mesh of three drains gives results more comparative to field one. A longer consolidation time is observed for the cell improved by a single central drain. A comparison with theoretical analysis, basically that of Barron (1948) and Carillo (1942), was presented. It’s found that these theories overestimate the degree of consolidation in the presence of PVD.

Keywords: tunis soft soil, prefabricated vertical drains, acceleration of consolidation, dissipation of excess pore water pressures, radès bridge project, barron and carillo’s theories

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Authors: Djurdjica Perovic, Sanja Pekovic, Tatjana Stanovcic, Jovana Vukcevic

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Tourism development in rural areas calls for a discussion of strategies that would attract more tourists. Several scholars argue that rural areas may become more attractive to tourists by leveraging their cultural heritage. The present paper explores the development of sustainable heritage tourism practices in transitional societies of the Western Balkans, specifically targeting Montenegrin rural areas. It addresses the sustainable tourism as a shift in business paradigm, enhancing the centrality of the host community, fostering the encounters with local culture, customs and heritage and minimizing the environmental and social impact. Disseminating part of the results of the interdisciplinary KATUN project, the paper explores the diversification of economic activities related to the cultural heritage of katuns (temporary settlements in Montenegrin mountainous regions where the agricultural households stay with livestock during the summer season) through sustainable agro-tourism. It addresses the role of heritage tourism in creating more dynamic economy of under-developed mountain areas, new employment opportunities, sources of income for the local community and more balanced regional development, all based on the principle of sustainability. Based on the substantial field research (including interviews with over 50 households and tourists, as well as the number of stakeholders such as relevant Ministries, business communities and media representatives), the paper analyses the strategies employed in raising the awareness and katun-sensitivity of both national and international tourists and stimulating their interest in sustainable agriculture, rural tourism and cultural heritage of Montenegrin mountain regions. Studying the phenomena of responsible tourism and tourists’ consumerist consciousness in Montenegro through development of katuns should allow evaluating stages of sustainability and cultural heritage awareness, closely intertwined with the EU integration processes in the country. Offering deeper insight at the relationship between rural tourism, sustainable agriculture and cultural heritage, the paper aims to understand if cultural heritage of the area is valuable for agro-tourism development and in which context.

Keywords: heritage tourism, sustainable tourism, added value, Montenegro

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Authors: Jakia Rajoana

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The aim of this paper is to examine the role of women entrepreneurs in bringing about sustainable rural tourism (SRT) development in Sundarbans area of Bangladesh. Theoretically, it draws upon empowerment and entrepreneurial marketing concepts. Women entrepreneurship development and lack of empowered women as role models is an important issue for developing economies in South Asia. Despite the substantial role women play in rural economy of Sundarbans, their contribution remains overlooked as enterprises led by them are run on an informal basis and their business acumen is not taken seriously both by their families and society at large. Studies on SRT fail to engage in sufficient depth with the term applied in this paper as ‘invisible women on the margins’ who run their enterprises with no formal training or societal/familial support. Moreover, the link between their (non) tourism enterprise and their empowerment remains under-theorized. Thus empirically, this research seeks to fill a significant gap by focusing on a considerably under-researched Sundarbans region. Methodologically, this study follows a qualitative research design using visual ethnographic approach. Participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and documentation are the primary data collection instruments in three coastal communities – Munshigonj, Burigoalini and Gabura – in the Sundarbans area. By focusing on the narratives of these under-investigated women, this work aims to provide in-depth and nuanced insights into salient issues on marginal communities experience from rural women’s perspectives. Initial findings illustrate that the Sundarbans women have low income due to no or little education. In addition, socio-cultural and religious factors also restrict the scope of their extensive contribution to workplace. In addition, physical and social violence which is a common occurrence for these women inhibits their agency and contributes to their disempowerment.

Keywords: gender, empowerment, entrepreneurial marketing, sustainable rural tourism, Sundarbans

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Authors: Alejandro Arnaldo Barroso Martinez

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Unlike sex, which is constituted by anatomic-physiological differences, gender is a social construction. Our thoughts and behaviors as females and males are not etched in stone by our biology but rather from how society expects us to think and behave based on our sex assignment in the womb. Social expectations, values, and roles are taken on by individuals and shape the ways considered acceptable and linked to our bodies, feelings, and interpersonal relationships. Furthermore, these evolve into dire consequences for those who do not meet these disciplinary, economic, and cultural standards. Then, the social learning of gender identity implies the individual’s psychological sense of being, and it might be highly linked to a sense of life and suicide attempts. As a result, suicide has been considered a gender issue with differences in the rates and means used by men and women worldwide. Nevertheless, there has been a misunderstanding of the meaning of being male or female in a particular context and how it becomes a risk process for suicide attempts. For this reason, the general objective of the current research is to explain how this process occurs in Cuba. From a Critical Sociology and Social Psychology, a qualitative methodology was developed through six case studies and qualitative in-depth interviews. The analysis is focused on the sequence and interplay between two dimensions of meaning: signifiers and voices. Findings show that the risk process of suicide attempts in Cuba means some patriarchal beliefs and practices as part of informal educational models and some positivist practices in mental health attention. Findings also show that community relations create a sense of belonging, and it is a protection against suicide attempts in Cuba. Those frames of signifiers and voices explain in both males and females but differently when and how they are suffering from isolation, violence, the normalization of emotional awareness, and emotional distress expression. Suicide prevention programs should take gender learning into account as a cultural process.

Keywords: social constructions, gender identity, meanings, suicide attempt

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Authors: Olufunmilayo Folaranmi

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This research was carried out to examine the impact of socio-cultural factors on the management and utilization of solid waste in Ibadan Metropolis. A descriptive survey research design was adopted for the study while a systematic and stratified random sampling technique was used to select 300 respondents which were categorized into high, middle and low-density areas. Four hypothesis were tested using chi-square test on variables of unavailability of waste disposal facilities and waste management, negligence of contractors to liaise with community members, lack of adequate environmental education and waste management and utilization, low level of motivation of sanitation workers with solid wastes management, lack of community full participation with solid waste management and utilization. Results showed that significant effect of waste disposal facilities on solid waste management and utilization (X2 +16.6, P < .05). Also, there is a significant relationship between negligence of the contractors to liaise with community elites with improper disposal (X2 = 87.5, P < .05). The motivation of sanitation workers is significantly related to solid waste management (X2 = 70.4, P < .05). Adequate environmental education and awareness influenced solid waste management. There was also a significant relationship between lack of community participation with waste management disposal and improper waste disposal. Based on the findings from the study it was recommended that the quality of life in urban centers should be improved, social welfare of the populace enhanced and environment should be adequately attended to. Poverty alleviation programmes should be intensified and made to live beyond the life of a particular administration, micro-credit facilities should be available to community members to promote their welfare. Lastly, sustained environmental education programmes for citizens at all levels of education, formal and informal through the use of agencies like Ethical and Attitudinal Reorientation Commission (EARCOM) and the National Orientation Agency (NOA).

Keywords: management, social welfare, socio-cultural factors, solid waste

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Authors: Fiona Gibson

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This study is on sustainable capacity building in tourism management of the touristic destination of forts and castles within the Accra Metropolis, of the Greater Accra Region of Ghana, notably, the Christianbough Castle, the James and Ussher Forts. These forts and castle mentioned above have a rich colonial historical past that emerged from the 17th century onwards on the Gulf Coast of Guinea of the West Africa Sub-Region. Unfortunately, apart from the Christianbough Castle, which used to be the seat of government until recently, the environment of James and Ussher Forts are in a deployable state of decay due to years of neglect. Jamestown and Usshertown fishing communities with historical colonial past of a rich touristic heritage sites are predominantly indigenous Gas who speak only the Ga language, one of the languages of the six local languages spoken in Ghana, as a medium for sustainable tourism management. The purpose of this study is to investigate the reasons for years of decay and neglect, using both qualitative and quantitative research approach for individual interviews, to develop a rich picture of life situational story of the people of James and Ussher Forts environs and finding solutions to their predicaments through internal generated funds for sustainability of tourism management within the communities. The study recommends nation-wide educational campaigns and programmes on culture of maintenance and management for sustainable tourism development and management at all historical heritage sites in the country, specifically with the aim of promoting tourism in Ghana, using the indigenous local languages. The study also recommends formal and informal education for the residents, especially the youth to help them learn skills, either through local training or the formal education and this call for collaboration between the government of Ghana and other local and international bodies.

Keywords: sustainable capacity building, tourism management, forts, castles

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Authors: Sharifullah Ahmed

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Residual settlement of cohesionless or non-plastic soil of different strength underlying highway embankment overlain by stronger soil layer highway embankment is studied. A parametric study is carried out for different height of embankment and for different ESAL factor. The sum of elastic settlements of cohesionless subsoil due to axle induced stress and due to self-weight of pavement layers is termed as the residual settlement. The values of residual settlement (Sr) for different heights of road embankment (He) are obtained and presented as design charts for different SPT Value (N60) and ESAL factor. For rigid pavement and flexible pavement in approach to bridge or culvert, the tolerable residual settlement is 0.100m. This limit is taken as 0.200m for flexible pavement in general sections of highway without approach to bridge or culvert. A simplified guideline is developed for design of highway embankment underlain by very loose to loose cohesionless subsoil overlain by a stronger soil layer for limiting value of the residual settlement. In the current research study range of ESAL factor is 1-10 and range of SPT value (N60) is 1-10. That is found that, ground improvement is not required if the overlying stronger layer is minimum 1.5m and 4.0m for general road section of flexible pavement except bridge or culvert approach and for rigid pavement or flexible pavement in bridge or culvert approach. Tables and charts are included in the prepared guideline to obtain minimum allowable height of highway embankment to limit the residual settlement with in mentioned tolerable limit. Allowable values of the embankment height (He) are obtained corresponding to tolerable or limiting level of the residual settlement of loose subsoil for different SPT value, thickness of stronger layer (d) and ESAL factor. The developed guideline is may be issued to be used in assessment of the necessity of ground improvement in case of cohesionless subsoil underlying highway embankment overlain by stronger subsoil layer for limiting residual settlement. The ground improvement is only to be required if the residual settlement of subsoil is more than tolerable limit.

Keywords: axle pressure, equivalent single axle load, ground improvement, highway embankment, tolerable residual settlement

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Authors: Raj Mukta Sundaram

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The location of Ayodhya is distinctly described along river Sarayu in the epic Ramayan. On the contrary, even elaborate descriptions of Lanka and its environs are still proving elusive to human ingenuity to find a direct correlation on the ground. His-torically, there were hardly any attempts to locate Lanka, but some speculations have been made very recently, of which Sri Lanka has gained widespread public ac-ceptance for obvious reasons, such as Sri and Lanka. This belief is almost secured by the impression of Ram Setu on the satellite images, which has led the government to initiate a scientific mission to determine its age. In fact, other viewpoints believe Lanka to be somewhere far-flung along the equator, and another has long proclaimed it to be in central regions of India, but both are diminished by contemporary belief. This study emanates from the fact that Sri Lanka has no correlation to epic, and more importantly, satellite images are deceptive. So the objectives are twofold - firstly, to interpret the text from a holistic approach by analyzing the ecosystem, settlements, geological as-pects, and most importantly, the timeline of key events. Secondly, it explains the pit-falls in the rationale behind contemporary belief. At the outset, it categorically rejects the notion of Ram Setu, which, in geological terms, is merely a part of the continental shelf developed millions of years ago. It also refutes the misconception created by the word “Sri,” which is, in fact, an official name adopted by the country in the seventies with no correlation whatsoever with the events of Ramayana. Likewise, the study ar-gues for the establishment of a prosperous kingdom on a remote island with adverse climatic conditions for any civilization at that time. Eventually, the study demonstrates that travel time for the distances covered by Lord Rama does not corroborate with the description in the epic. It all leads to one conclusion that Lanka cannot be in Sri Lanka. Rather, it needs to be somewhere in the central-eastern parts of India. That region jus-tifies the environs and timelines for the journeys undertaken by Lord Rama, besides the fact that the tribes of the region show strong allegiance to Ravana. The study strongly recommends looking into the central-east region of India for the golden abode of a demon king and rejuvenating tourism of a scenic and culturally rich region hitherto marred by disturbances.

Keywords: spatial analysis, Ramayan, heritage, tourism

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Authors: Beryl Rene R. Lopez, Lesley Anne M. Lipat, Rhogene Barbette C. Lirio, Laurice Joy H. Llanes, Karl Philippe M. Llapitan, Einstein James R. Lopez, Socorro S. GuanHing

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Background: Measles remain as one of the most common childhood diseases despite the availability of the vaccine that is safe and cost-effective. Because of morbidity and mortality associated with the recent measles outbreak in the Philippines, there is an increasing concern from the health care professionals. Objective: The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the compliance of Filipino mothers to measles vaccination and their health beliefs when grouped according to the given socio-demographic factors using a researcher-made questionnaire. Research Methodology: This research utilized the descriptive-correlational research design. With the use of purposive sampling technique, the study involved 200 Filipino mothers aged 18 years old and above excluding those who are healthcare professionals with children aged 2-3 years old with either urban or rural as their settlements. Pre-testing was done prior to the actual data gathering. A questionnaire composed of 26 items involving socio-demographic, compliance, and health beliefs was distributed to the sample population. Statistical analysis was done with the use of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) for the first research question and Structural Equation Model (SEM) for the second research question. Results: Four dimensions were generated with the use of EFA namely: Vulnerability-Oriented Beliefs (VOB), Knowledge-Oriented Beliefs (KOB), Accessibility-Oriented Beliefs (AOB), and Outcomes-Oriented Beliefs (OOB). These were then correlated with the mothers’ socio-demographic factors (age, educational attainment, the area of residence, the number of children, and family income) and their compliance to the measles vaccination schedule. Results showed significant and direct relationships between area of residence and compliance, family income and compliance, KOB and compliance, education and KOB, KOB and VOB, KOB and OOB, AOB and KOB, AOB and OOB, AOB and VOB, and lastly, OOB and VOB. Conclusion: The Knowledge – Oriented Belief dimension greatly influence compliance to measles vaccination. Other determinants of compliance like the area of residence, educational attainment, and family income significantly increase the Filipino mothers’ likelihood of compliance to measles vaccination, which have implications to health education.

Keywords: socio-demographic, health beliefs, compliance, measles vaccination

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Authors: Thomas Nally, Jane Ireland, Roxanne Khan, Philip Birch

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Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), a significant societal problem, affects individuals worldwide. However, the strategies victims use to keep safe are under-researched. IPV is significantly under-reported, and services often are not able to be accessed by all victims. Thus they are likely to use their own strategies to manage their victimization before being able to seek support. Two studies were completed to understand these strategies. A systematic review of the literature and study completed with professionals who work with victims was undertaken to understand this area. In study one, a systematic review of the literature (n=61 papers), were analyzed using Thematic Analysis. The results indicated that victims use a large array of behaviors to increase their sense of safety and coping with emotions but also experience significant barriers to help-seeking. In study 2, sixty-nine professionals completed a measure exploring the likelihood and effectiveness of various victim strategies regarding increasing their sense of safety. Strategies included in the measure were obtained from those identified in study 1. Findings indicated that professionals perceived victims of IPV to be more likely to employ safety strategies and coping behaviors that may be ineffective but not help-seeking behaviors. Further, the responses were analyzed using Cluster Analysis. Safety strategies resulted in five clusters; perpetrator-directed strategies, prevention strategies, cognitive reappraisal, safety planning and avoidance strategies. Help-Seeking resulted in six clusters; information or practical support, abuse-related support, emotional support, secondary support and informal support. Finally, coping resulted in four clusters; emotional coping, self-directed coping, thought recording/change and cognitive coping. Both studies indicate that victims may use a variety of strategies to manage their safety besides seeking help. Professionals working with victims, using a strength-based approach, should understand what is used and is effective for victims who are unable to leave the relationships or access external support.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, help-seeking, professional support, victims, victim coping, victim safety

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Authors: Ibrahim Darwish, Noora Abu Ain

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Referring to female relatives by male Jordanian speakers in public is governed by various linguistic and social constraints. Although Jordanian society is less conservative than it was a few decades ago, women are still considered the weaker link in society and men still believe that they need to protect them. Conservative Jordanians often avoid referring to their female relatives overtly, i.e., using their real names. Instead, they use covert names, such as pseudonyms, nicknames, pet names, etc. The reason behind such language use has to do with how Arab men, in general, see women as part of their honor. This study intends to investigate to what extent Jordanian males hide their female relatives’ names in public domains. The data was collected from spontaneous informal voice-recorded interviews carried out in the village of Saham in the far north of Jordan. Saham’s dialect is part of a larger Horani dialect used by speakers along a wide area that stretches from Salt in the south to the Syrian borders in the north of Jordan. The voice-recorded interviews were originally carried out as an audio record of some customs and traditions in the village of Saham in 2013. During most of these interviews, the researchers observed how the male participants indirectly referred to their female relatives. Instead of using real names, the male speakers used broad terms to refer to their female relatives, such al-Beit ‘the home,’ al-ciyaal ‘the kids’, um-x ‘the mother of x,’ etc. All tokens related to the issue in question were collected, analyzed and quantified about three age cohorts: young, middle-aged and old speakers. The results show that young speakers are more direct in referring to their female relatives than the other two age groups. This can point to a possible change in progress in the speech community of Saham. It is argued that due to contact with other urban speech communities, the young speakers in Saham do not feel the need to hide the real names of their female relatives as they consider them as equals. Indeed, the young generation is more open to the idea of women's rights and call for expanding Jordanian women’s roles in Jordanian society.

Keywords: gender differences, Horan, proper names, social constraints

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Authors: Shinta Holdsworth, Jan Axmacher, Darren J. Mann

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Beetles represent the most diverse insect taxon, and they contribute significantly to a wide range of vital ecological functions. Examples include decomposition by bark beetles, nitrogen recycling and dung processing by dung beetles or pest control by predatory ground beetles. Nonetheless, research into the distribution patterns, species richness and functional diversity of beetles particularly from tropical regions remains extremely limited. In our research, we aim to investigate the distribution and diversity patterns of beetles and the roles they play in small tropical island ecosystems in the Kepulauan Seribu Marine National Park and on Java. Our research furthermore provides insights into the effects anthropogenic activities have on the assemblage composition and diversity of beetles on the small islands. We recorded a substantial number of highly abundant small island species, including a substantial number of unique small island species across the study area, highlighting these islands’ potential importance for the regional conservation of genetic resources. The highly varied patterns observed in relation to the use of different trapping types - pitfall traps and flight interception traps (FITs) - underscores the need for complementary trapping strategies that combine multiple methods for beetle community surveys in tropical islands. The significant impacts of human activities have on the small island beetle faunas were also highlighted in our research. More island beetle species encountered in settlement than forest areas shows clear trend of positive links between anthropogenic activities and the overall beetle species richness. However, undisturbed forests harboured a high number of unique species, also in comparison to disturbed forests. Finally, our study suggests that, with regards to different feeding guilds, the diversity of herbivorous beetles on islands is strongly affected by the different levels of forest cover encountered.

Keywords: beetle diversity, forest disturbance, island biogeography, island settlement

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Authors: Erkingul Soltanaeva, Omyrkhan Abdimanuly, Alua Temirbolat

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In this article, the public and social functions of literature and art in the Republic of Kazakhstan were analyzed on the basis of formal and informal literary organizations. The external and internal, subjective and objective factors which influenced the modern literary process were determined. The literary forces, their consolidation, types of organization in the art of word were examined. The periods of the literary process as planning, organization, promotion, and evaluation and their leading forces and approaches were analyzed. The right point of view to the language and mentality of the society force will influence to the literary process. The Ministry of Culture, the Writers' Union of RK and various non-governmental organizations are having different events for the promotion of literary process and to glorify literary personalities in the entire territory of Kazakhstan. According to the cultural plan of different state administration, there was a big program in order to publish their literary encyclopedia, to glorify and distribute books of own poets and writers of their region to the country. All of these official measures will increase the reader's interest in the book and will also bring up people to the patriotic education and improve the status of the native language. The professional literary publications such as the newspaper ‘Kazakh literature’, magazine ‘Zhuldyz’, and journal ‘Zhalyn’ materials which were published in the periods 2013-2015 on the basis of statistical analysis of the Kazakh literature topical to the issues and the field of themes are identified and their level of connection with the public situations are defined. The creative freedom, relations between society and the individual, the state of the literature, the problems of advantages and disadvantages were taken into consideration in the same articles. The level of functions was determined through the public role of literature, social feature, personal peculiarities. Now the stages as the literature management planning, organization, motivation, as well as the evaluation are forming and developing in Kazakhstan. But we still need the development of literature management to satisfy the actual requirements of the today’s agenda.

Keywords: literature management, material, literary process, social functions

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Authors: Emmanuel Olasope Bamigboye, Ismail Oladeji Oladosu

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Local people of south-western Nigeria like in other climes, continue to be confronted with the vagaries of changing environments. Through the modification of existing practice and shifting resource base, their strategies for coping with change have enabled them to successfully negotiate the shifts in climate change and the environment. This article analyses indigenous adaptation strategies for climate change with a view to enhancing sustainable crop farming in south –western Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 340 respondents from the two major ecological zones (Forest and Derived Savannah) for good geographical spread. The article draws on mixed methods of qualitative research, literature review, field observations, informal interview and multinomial logit regression to capture choice probabilities across the various options of climate change adaptation options among arable crop farmers. The study revealed that most 85.0% of the arable crop farmers were males. It also showed that the use of local climate change adaptation strategies had no relationship with the educational level of the respondents as 77.3% had educational experiences at varying levels. Furthermore, the findings showed that seven local adaptation strategies were commonly utilized by arable crop farmers. Nonetheless, crop diversification, consultation with rainmakers and involvement in non-agricultural ventures were prioritized in the order of 1-3, respectively. Also, multinomial logit analysis result showed that at p ≤ 0.05 level of significance, household size (P<0.08), sex (p<0.06), access to loan(p<0.16), age(p<0.07), educational level (P<0.17) and functional extension contact (P<0.28) were all important in explaining the indigenous climate change adaptation utilized by the arable crops farmers in south-western Nigeria. The study concluded that all the identified local adaptation strategies need to be integrated into the development process for sustainable climate change adaptation.

Keywords: crop diversification, climate change, adaptation option, sustainable, small farmers

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Authors: Lateef Hakim Zai Khyber, Syed Rashid Ali

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In the post 9/11 era, a new trend has developed of terrorist profiling on the basis of the ethnic, religious, political, psychological, social, and economic background of the terrorists to anticipate and assess the possible risk and to prevent and prosecute the suspected before they commit any violent act. The same profiling approach was adopted in different militant or terrorist de-radicalization and rehabilitation programs across the world in order to evaluate and identify the reasons and causes for joining terrorism in terms of push and pull factors. This paper attempts to explore and investigate the profiles of the detainees in the Sabaoon de-radicalization and Emancipation program, which aimed at de-radicalizing the former militants of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan in the Swat valley of Pakistan. This research attempted to use qualitative methods for collecting data, including a number of formal and informal open-ended interviews with the former staff members of Sabaoon to explore various aspects of the program, such as various approaches used at Sabaoon for terrorist profiling. It conducts a thorough examination of the profiles of the terrorist through their socioeconomic, ideological, emotional, intellectual, and psychological conditions and orientations, personal details, family issues, social preferences, etc. The study finds out that the majority of the terrorists belonged to the marginalized groups or lower class, including underprivileged tenants and poor laborers, of society having no access to land. They possess almost the same profiles, including low socioeconomic status, absence of a father or strict behavior of parents, large and combined families, lack of education, lack of religious understanding, etc. They also possess some common traits such as anxiety disorder, emotional instability, aggressive impulses and insecurity, depression, inferiority complex, lack of critical thinking and logical reasoning, authority-seeking behavior, and revenge-seeking behavior.

Keywords: terrorist profiling, Sabaoon, de-radicalization, rehabilitation, Swat, Pakistan, juvenile militants

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Authors: Waepa Wanhussen

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The Ministry of Public Health has established policies accelerating health promotion to prevent public health problems in five border provinces of Thailand. One of these policies employs the religion to guide the community development and solve health issues consistent with the lifestyle and culture of those people. This policy is an important strategy to solve the problems due to the unrest and conflicts in the southern border provinces. This participatory action research aimed to develop mosques as healthy religion places in Narathiwat Province. In the development, the participatory action, consisting of 5 stages, was conducted from October 2012 - May 2013. Stage I: Conducting a survey for problems and needs for developing healthy religion places by employing community participation. Stage II: Analyzing problems and situations at a workshop containing informal interviews and group conversations with 200 participants (health providers at district level, Imams (the Muslim leaders), and community leaders). Stage III: Planning for developing healthy religion places by health providers, Imams, community leaders. Stage IV: Implementing the plan according to the conditions of problems and needs of the community in order to develop healthy religion places. Stage V: Evaluating the implementation by using the instrument, a criteria of being healthy religion place, for collecting data. Data were analyzed by using percentage. It was found that out of 630 mosques 575 (90.12%) passed the criteria of being a healthy religion place. Among these mosques, 190 mosques (30.15%) were in good and very good level, in which, after the implementation, the number of being good and very good healthy mosques increased by 22.58%. The researcher suggested that the developing sustainably healthy religion places require the participation of residences in the community and agencies such as local government, the Islamic Council of Narathiwat Province, and Council of Culture of Narathiwat Province. The healthy religion places can be used to strengthen and sustain health promotion and disease prevention in the community as health learning centers.

Keywords: healthy religion places, development of community participation, nursing informatics, health

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Authors: Amaraporn Puraya, Roongtiva Boonpracom, Somsak Thojampa, Sirikanok Klankhajhon, Kittisak Kumpeera

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The objective of this qualitative research was to study the elderly health care process by community participation. Data were collected by quality research methods, including secondary data study, observation, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions and analyzed by content analysis, reflection and review of information. The research results pointed out that the important elderly health care process by community participation consisted of 2 parts, namely the community participation development process in elderly health care and the outcomes from the participation development process. The community participation development process consisted of 4 steps as follows: 1) Building the leadership team, an important social capital of the community, which started from searching for both formal and informal leaders by giving the opportunity for public participation and creating clear agreements defining roles, duties and responsibilities; 2) investigating the problems and the needs of the community, 3) designing the elderly health care activities under the concept of self-care potential development of the elderly through participation in community forums and meetings to exchange knowledge with common goals, plans and operation and 4) the development process of sustainable health care agreement at the local level, starting from opening communication channels to create awareness and participation in various activities at both individual and group levels as well as pushing activities/projects into the community development plan consistent with the local administration policy. The outcomes from the participation development process were as follows. 1) There was the integration of the elderly for doing the elderly health care activities/projects in the community managed by the elderly themselves. 2) The service system was changed from the passive to the proactive one, focusing on health promotion rather than treating diseases or illnesses. 3) The registered nurses / the public health officers can provide care for the elderly with chronic illnesses through the implementation of activities/projects of elderly health care so that the elderly can access the services more. 4) The local government organization became the main mechanism in driving the elderly health care process by community participation.

Keywords: elderly health care process, community participation, elderly, Thailand

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Authors: Lonna Mabandla, Godfrey Musvoto

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Transportation is a catalytic feature in cities. Transport and land use activity are interdependent and have a feedback loop between how land is developed and how transportation systems are designed and used. This recursive relationship between land use and transportation is reflected in how public transportation routes internal to the inner-city enhance accessibility, therefore creating spaces that are conducive to business activity, while the business activity also informs public transportation routes. It is for this reason that the focus of this research is on public transportation within inner-city areas where the dynamic is evident. Durban is the chosen case study where the dominating form of public transportation within the central business district (CBD) is minibus taxis. The paradox here is that minibus taxis still form part of the informal economy even though they are the leading form of public transportation in South Africa. There have been many attempts to formalise this industry to follow more regulatory practices, but minibus taxis are privately owned, therefore complicating any proposed intervention. The argument of this study is that the application of collaborative planning through a sustainable partnership between the public and private sectors will improve the social and environmental sustainability of public transportation. One of the major challenges that exist within such collaborative endeavors is power dynamics. As a result, a key focus of the study is on power relations. Practically, power relations should be observed over an extended period, specifically when the different stakeholders engage with each other, to reflect valid data. However, a lengthy data collection process was not possible to observe during the data collection phase of this research. Instead, interviews were conducted focusing on existing procedural planning practices between the inner-city minibus taxi association (South and North Beach Taxi Association), the eThekwini Transport Authority (ETA), and the eThekwini Town Planning Department. Conclusions and recommendations were then generated based on these data.

Keywords: collaborative planning, sustainability, public transport, minibus taxis

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Authors: Shirin Zubair

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Keeping in view the segregation of space(s) experienced by young women and men at puberty in Pakistan and the socially constructed and performative aspect of gender identity by Western theorists of gender and self, this paper will explore Pakistani youth’s differential, gendered performances. Specifically focused on Pakistani youth’s perceptions and experiences of sexuality, extramarital and same-sex relationships in constructing and performing gendered identities as manifested through their talk, the research will also draw upon recent theories of space in cultural studies and postcolonial discourses. The data cited has been culled from two different studies conducted at universities in the city of Multan. Informal, unstructured group discussions of women and men aged between twenty and twenty nine years of age were recorded separately among groups of friends and cohorts studying at two different universities. The findings clearly show both young women and men doing the boundary work in identity construction in private and public spaces: talking of sexuality, sexual desire and sexual relationships, women tend to safely couch their articulations in euphemisms: distance themselves from the Western concepts of sexual liberation ; while young men’s exhibitionism in boasting of their sexual prowess and sexual encounters as well as the use of sexually explicit and tabooed words frequently in their intimate conversations shows a clear departure from and a contestation of the normative public discourses. Further the findings illustrate that young men conform to the patriarchal ideologies by constructing heterosexual identities whereas young women initiate discourse on same-sex relationships. The data also reveals that the private identities of these young Pakistanis are different from their public identities, as it is in their intimate conversations and private (or safe) spaces that they talk about their pre-marital sexual activities and love affairs. These intimate and safe spaces thus emerge as subversion and contestation of their public identity, as sex and sexuality are tabooed subjects in public discourses.

Keywords: sexuality, gender, identity, performance

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Authors: Henok Hailemariam, Frank Wuttke

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Collapsible soils are weak soils that appear to be stable in their natural state, normally dry condition, but rapidly deform under saturation (wetting), thus generating large and unexpected settlements which often yield disastrous consequences for structures unwittingly built on such deposits. In this study, a prediction model for the relative subsidence of stressed collapsible soils based on dielectric permittivity measurement is presented. Unlike most existing methods for soil subsidence prediction, this model does not require moisture content as an input parameter, thus providing the opportunity to obtain accurate estimation of the relative subsidence of collapsible soils using dielectric measurement only. The prediction model is developed based on an existing relative subsidence prediction model (which is dependent on soil moisture condition) and an advanced theoretical frequency and temperature-dependent electromagnetic mixing equation (which effectively removes the moisture content dependence of the original relative subsidence prediction model). For large scale sub-surface soil exploration purposes, the spatial sub-surface soil dielectric data over wide areas and high depths of weak (collapsible) soil deposits can be obtained using non-destructive high frequency electromagnetic (HF-EM) measurement techniques such as ground penetrating radar (GPR). For laboratory or small scale in-situ measurements, techniques such as an open-ended coaxial line with widely applicable time domain reflectometry (TDR) or vector network analysers (VNAs) are usually employed to obtain the soil dielectric data. By using soil dielectric data obtained from small or large scale non-destructive HF-EM investigations, the new model can effectively predict the relative subsidence of weak soils without the need to extract samples for moisture content measurement. Some of the resulting benefits are the preservation of the undisturbed nature of the soil as well as a reduction in the investigation costs and analysis time in the identification of weak (problematic) soils. The accuracy of prediction of the presented model is assessed by conducting relative subsidence tests on a collapsible soil at various initial soil conditions and a good match between the model prediction and experimental results is obtained.

Keywords: collapsible soil, dielectric permittivity, moisture content, relative subsidence

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Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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Authors: Ransford Kwaku Afeadie

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Purpose – The health challenges that characterises most of the migrants’ urban slums raise a lot of concern for their well-being. Health-seeking behaviour becomes an important step towards maintaining a healthy life. The importance of contextual issues is necessary to help meet specific community health needs and programmes. Therefore, this study aims to bridge the knowledge gap by investigating health-seeking behaviour disparity among rural-urban labour migrant slum dwellers before and after migration to the urban slums of Madina in the Greater Accra Region, Ghana. Design/methodology/approach – The author used explanatory sequential approach of research investigation. Questionnaire and interview guides were used to collect data from the respondents; however, in the absence of an existing reliable sampling frame, the various communities were selected by the use of cluster sampling proportional to size. At the second stage, a simple random sampling was used to select the various household heads. A total of 241 questionnaires were retrieved from the respondents representing a response rate of 100%. The author used the purposive sampling technique to conduct eight in-depth interviews and six key informants’ interviews. Findings – The author found various discrepancies in many of the activities that could fulfill substantial health-seeking behaviour in the slum as compared to migrant’s places of origin. The reason for coming to the slum amidst many settlements needs and low education background are the factors that accounted for this. This study, therefore, contradicts the proposition held by the health belief model. It is, therefore, important to note that contextual issues are key, in this case, rural-urban migrant slums present a different dynamic that must be taken into account when designing health programmes for such settings. Originality/value – Many, if not all the, studies on health-seeking behaviour have focused on urban slums without taking into account urban migrants’ slums. Such a failure to take into account the variations of the health needs of migrants’ urban slum settings can eventually lead to a mismatch of health programmes meant to address their challenges. Therefore, this study brings to the fore such variations that must be taken into account when designing health programmes. The study also indicates that even with the same people, there were disparities in terms of health-seeking behaviour in the slum and at places of origin.

Keywords: health-seeking behaviour, rural–urban migration, urban slums, health belief model

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Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

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Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

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