Search results for: Federal Reserve System (FED).

Authors: Olugbade Damola, Adekomi Adebimbo, Sofowora Olaniyi Alaba

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One of the major problems facing education in Nigeria is the provision of quality Science and Technology education. Inadequate teaching facilities, non-usage of innovative teaching strategies, ineffective classroom management, lack of students’ motivation and poor integration of ICT has resulted in the increase in percentage of students who failed Basic Science and Technology in Junior Secondary Certification Examination for National Examination Council in Nigeria. To address these challenges, the Federal Government came up with a road map on education. This was with a view of enhancing quality education through integration of modern technology into teaching and learning, enhancing quality assurance through proper monitoring and introduction of innovative methods of teaching. This led the researcher to investigate how MOODLE LMS could be used to enhance students’ learning outcomes in BST. A sample of 120 students was purposively selected from four secondary schools in Ogbomoso. The experimental group was taught using MOODLE LMS, while the control group was taught using the conventional method. Data obtained were analyzed using mean, standard deviation and t-test. The result showed that MOODLE LMS was an effective learning platform in teaching BST in junior secondary schools (t=4.953, P<0.05). Students’ attitudes towards BST was also enhanced through MOODLE LMS (t=15.632, P<0.05). The use of MOODLE LMS significantly enhanced students’ retention (t=6.640, P<0.05). In conclusion, the Federal Government efforts at enhancing quality assurance through integration of modern technology and e-learning in Secondary schools proved to have yielded good result has students found MOODLE LMS to be motivating and interactive. Attendance was improved.

Keywords: basic science and technology, MOODLE LMS, performance, quality assurance

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, M. Mortezaee

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An important and influential factor in design and determining the safety factor in Soil Nailing is the ultimate pullout capacity, or, in other words, bond strength. This important parameter depends on several factors such as material and soil texture, method of implementation, excavation diameter, friction angle between the nail and the soil, grouting pressure, the nail depth (overburden pressure), the angle of drilling and the degree of saturation in soil. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), a customary regulation in the design of nailing, is considered only the effect of the soil type (or rock) and the method of implementation in determining the bond strength, which results in non-economic design. The other regulations are each of a kind, some of the parameters affecting bond resistance are not taken into account. Therefore, in the present paper, at first the relationships and tables presented by several valid regulations are presented for estimating the ultimate pullout capacity, and then the effect of several important factors affecting on ultimate Pullout capacity are studied. Finally, it was determined, the effect of overburden pressure (in method of injection with pressure), soil dilatation and roughness of the drilling surface on pullout strength is incremental, and effect of degree of soil saturation on pullout strength to a certain degree of saturation is increasing and then decreasing. therefore it is better to get help from nail pullout-strength test results and numerical modeling to evaluate the effect of parameters such as overburden pressure, dilatation, and degree of soil saturation, and so on to reach an optimal and economical design.

Keywords: soil nailing, pullout capacity, federal highway administration (FHWA), grout

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Authors: Rudi Ryacudu, Edi Artono, Gema Wahyudi Purnama

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Oil and gas consumption in Indonesia is currently on the rise due to its nation economic improvement. Unfortunately, Indonesia’s domestic oil production cannot meet it’s own consumption and Indonesia has lost its status as Oil and Gas exporter. Even worse, our conventional oil and gas reserve is declining. Unwilling to give up, the government of Indonesia has taken measures to invite investors to invest in domestic oil and gas exploration to find new potential reserve and ultimately increase production. Yet, it has not bear any fruit. Indonesia has taken steps now to explore new unconventional oil and gas play including Shale Gas, Shale Oil and Tight Sands to increase domestic production. These new plays require definite parameters to differentiate each concept. The purpose of this paper is to provide ways in defining unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir parameters in Shale Gas, Shale Oil and Tight Sands. The parameters would serve as an initial baseline for users to perform analysis of unconventional hydrocarbon plays. Some of the on going concerns or question to be answered in regards to unconventional hydrocarbon plays includes: 1. The TOC number, 2. Has it been well “cooked” and become a hydrocarbon, 3. What are the permeability and the porosity values, 4. Does it need a stimulation, 5. Does it has pores, and 6. Does it have sufficient thickness. In contrast with the common oil and gas conventional play, Shale Play assumes that hydrocarbon is retained and trapped in area with very low permeability. In most places in Indonesia, hydrocarbon migrates from source rock to reservoir. From this case, we could derive a theory that Kitchen and Source Rock are located right below the reservoir. It is the starting point for user or engineer to construct basin definition in relation with the tectonic play and depositional environment. Shale Play concept requires definition of characteristic, description and reservoir identification to discover reservoir that is technically and economically possible to develop. These are the steps users and engineers has to do to perform Shale Play: a. Calculate TOC and perform mineralogy analysis using water saturation and porosity value. b. Reconstruct basin that accumulate hydrocarbon c. Brittlenes Index calculated form petrophysical and distributed based on seismic multi attributes d. Integrated natural fracture analysis e. Best location to place a well.

Keywords: unconventional hydrocarbon, shale gas, shale oil tight sand reservoir parameters, shale play

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Jaemyoung Lee

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We present a method to set up system functions through a near filed communication (NFC) of a smartphone. The short communication distance of the NFC which is usually less than 4 cm could prevent any interferences from other devices and establish a secure communication channel between a system and the smartphone. The proposed set-up method for system function values is demonstrated for a blacbox system in a car. In demonstration, system functions of a blackbox which is manipulated through NFC of a smartphone are controls of image quality, sound level, shock sensing level to store images, etc. The proposed set-up method for system function values can be used for any devices with NFC.

Keywords: system set-up, near field communication, smartphone, android

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Authors: B. G. Ayantunji, B. Musa, H. Mai-Unguwa, L. A. Sunmonu, A. S. Adewumi, L. Sa'ad, A. Kado

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For achieving reliable and efficient communication system, both terrestrial and satellite communication, surface refractivity is critical in planning and design of radio links. This study analyzed the impact of atmospheric parameters on Ultra High Frequency (UHF) signal strength over Gusau, North West, Nigeria. The analysis exploited meteorological data measured simultaneously with UHF signal strength for the month of June 2017 using a Davis Vantage Pro2 automatic weather station and UHF signal strength measuring devices respectively. The instruments were situated at the premise of Federal University, Gusau (6° 78' N, 12° 13' E). The refractivity values were computed using ITU-R model. The result shows that the refractivity value attained the highest value of 366.28 at 2200hr and a minimum value of 350.66 at 2100hr local time. The correlation between signal strength and refractivity is 0.350; Humidity is 0.532 and a negative correlation of -0.515 for temperature.

Keywords: refractivity, UHF (ultra high frequency) signal strength, free space, automatic weather station

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Authors: J. S. P. Barbosa, L. C. Pereira, K. R. Garcia, P. C. P. Bouchardet, S. C. T. Vieira, A. O. Gomes, S. S. Funghetto, M. G. O. Kanikowski

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For this population, height seems to be a good predictor of strength and body composition. This increase in life expectancy of the Brazilian's population is associated with sociodemographic variables, but also to more access to health services in the prevention and better living conditions. With the growth of elderly population, a problem that has been a concern to health's professionals and public health at all is the use of psychoactive substances. The purpose of this study was to identify the sociodemographic profile of the elderly people who was attended at the Center of Psychosocial Care of alcohol and other drugs in the Federal District of Brazil. 408 medical records of people aged 60 years or over were evaluated, and it is possible to know that most of them were males (85.3%), with a mean age of 64 years (DP ± 4.16), 60 and 84 years and a mean age of 64 years (DP ± 4.42); 88.2% have some family ties, are married and have children, with relatives living in masonry housing. The educational level of drug users was considered low with more emphasis on those who had elementary education being the majority retired or unemployed. Regarding the street situation, there was no significance (p = 0.084), and the women (OR = 2.98) had few chances of street situations compared to men (OR = 0.89). As for substance consumption, the highest quantity of drug consumption bids in relation to the number of illicit. It did not present significant statistical value, and there is a greater probability of consumption/abuse of legal and/or illicit drugs for both sexes (OR = 0.96) for men and (OR = 1.32) for women. In relation to the use of multiple drugs, there was no significant difference between the sexes, (OR = 1.1) male sex and (OR = 0.74) female sex. Based on the results found in the present study, it was concluded that alcohol consumption is the main agent that causes vulnerability in the elderly and predisposes the latter to the consumption of other associated drugs.

Keywords: centers of attention psychosocial alcohol and drugs, elderly, mental disorder due to drug use, street situations

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Authors: Jacob J. Shila, Xiaoyu O. Wu

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As the applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) continue to increase across the world, it is critical to understand the factors that contribute to incidents and accidents associated with these systems. Given the variety of daily applications that could utilize the operations of the UAV (e.g., medical, security operations, construction activities, landscape activities), the main discussion has been how to safely incorporate the UAV into the national airspace system. The types of UAV incidents being reported range from near sightings by other pilots to actual collisions with aircraft or UAV. These incidents have the potential to impact the rest of aviation operations in a variety of ways, including human lives, liability costs, and delay costs. One of the largest causes of these incidents cited is the human factor; other causes cited include maintenance, aircraft, and others. This work investigates the key human factors associated with UAV incidents. To that end, the data related to UAV incidents that have occurred in the United States is both reviewed and analyzed to identify key human factors related to UAV incidents. The data utilized in this work is gathered from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) drone database. This study adopts the human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) to identify key human factors that have contributed to some of the UAV failures to date. The uniqueness of this work is the incorporation of UAV incident data from a variety of applications and not just military data. In addition, identifying the specific human factors is crucial towards developing safety operational models and human factor guidelines for the UAV. The findings of these common human factors are also compared to similar studies in other countries to determine whether these factors are common internationally.

Keywords: human factors, incidents and accidents, safety, UAS, UAV

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Authors: Víctor Cecilio, Roberto Gómez, J. Alberto Escobar, Héctor Guerrero

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The study of the structural behavior of a support/pier of an elevated viaduct in Mexico City is presented. Detection of foundation piles with uncertain integrity prompted the review of possible situations that could jeopardy the structural safety of the pier. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the structural conditions of the support, taking into account the type of anomaly reported and the depth at which it is located, the position of the pile with uncertain integrity in the foundation system, the stratigraphy of the surrounding soil and the geometry and structural characteristics of the pier. To carry out the above, dynamic analysis, spectral modal, and step-by-step, with elastic and inelastic material models, were performed. Results were evaluated in accordance with the standards used for the design of the original structural project and with the Construction Regulations for Mexico’s Federal District (RCDF-2017, 2017). Comments on the response of the analyzed models are issued, and the conclusions are presented from a structural point of view.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, inelastic models, dubious foundation, bridge pier

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Authors: Zakir Husain, Neem Sagar, Neeraj Gupta

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Due to the increased penetration of renewable energy resources in the distribution system, the system is no longer passive in nature. In this paper, a steady state analysis of the distribution system has been done with the inclusion of wind generation. The modeling of wind turbine generator system and wind generator has been made to obtain the average active and the reactive power injection into the system. The study has been conducted on a IEEE-33 bus system with two wind generators. The present research work is useful not only to utilities but also to customers.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution network, radial network, wind turbine generating system

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Authors: Mark Darius Juszczak

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While epistemology, as a sub-field of philosophy, is generally concerned with theoretical questions about the nature of knowledge, the explosion in digital media technologies has resulted in an exponential increase in the storage and transmission of human information. That increase has resulted in a particular non-linear dynamic – digital epistemological functions are radically altering how and what we know. Neither the rate of that change nor the consequences of it have been well studied or taken into account in developing state-level strategies for epistemological functions. At the current time, US Federal policy, like that of virtually all other countries, maintains, at the national state level, clearly defined boundaries between various epistemological agencies - agencies that, in one way or another, mediate the functional use of knowledge. These agencies can take the form of patent and trademark offices, national library and archive systems, departments of education, departments such as the FTC, university systems and regulations, military research systems such as DARPA, federal scientific research agencies, medical and pharmaceutical accreditation agencies, federal funding for scientific research and legislative committees and subcommittees that attempt to alter the laws that govern epistemological functions. All of these agencies are in the constant process of creating, analyzing, and regulating knowledge. Those processes are, at the most general level, epistemological functions – they act upon and define what knowledge is. At the same time, however, there are no high-level strategic epistemological directives or frameworks that define those functions. The only time in US history where a proxy state-level epistemological strategy existed was between 1961 and 1969 when the Kennedy Administration committed the United States to the Apollo program. While that program had a singular technical objective as its outcome, that objective was so technologically advanced for its day and so complex so that it required a massive redirection of state-level epistemological functions – in essence, a broad and diverse set of state-level agencies suddenly found themselves working together towards a common epistemological goal. This paper does not call for a repeat of the Apollo program. Rather, its purpose is to investigate the minimum structural requirements for a national state-level epistemological strategy in the United States. In addition, this paper also seeks to analyze how the epistemological work of the multitude of national agencies within the United States would be affected by such a high-level framework. This paper is an exploratory study of this type of framework. The primary hypothesis of the author is that such a function is possible but would require extensive re-framing and reclassification of traditional epistemological functions at the respective agency level. In much the same way that, for example, DHS (Department of Homeland Security) evolved to respond to a new type of security threat in the world for the United States, it is theorized that a lack of coordination and alignment in epistemological functions will equally result in a strategic threat to the United States.

Keywords: strategic security, epistemological functions, epistemological agencies, Apollo program

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Authors: Yekini Nureni Asafe, Haastrup Victor Adeleye, Ikotun Abiodun Motunrayo, Ojo Olanrewaju

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Web Based Criminal Diary is a web based application whereby data of criminals been convicted by a judge in the court of law in Nigeria are shown to the entire public. Presently, criminal records are kept manually in Nigeria, which means when a person needs to be investigated to know if the person has a criminal record in the country, there is need to pass through different manual processes. With the use of manual record keeping, the criminal records can easily be manipulated by people in charge. The focus of this research work is to design a web-based application system for criminal record in Nigeria, towards elimination of challenges (such as loss of criminal records, in-efficiency in criminal record keeping, data manipulation, and other attendant problems of paper-based record keeping) which surrounds manual processing currently in use. The product of this research work will also help to minimize crime rate in our country since the opportunities and benefits lost as a result of a criminal record create will a lifelong barriers for anyone attempting to overcome a criminal past in our country.

Keywords: court of law, criminal, criminal diary, criminal evidence, Nigeria, web-based

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Authors: Suraj Kumar Mukti

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Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system is a management tool to integrate all departments in an organization. It integrates business processes, manages resources efficiently and provides an appropriate decision support system to management. ERP system implementation is a typical and time taking process as well as money consuming process. Articles related to key success factors of ERP system implementation are available in the literature, but rare authors have focused on roadmap of successful ERP system implementation. Postponement is better if the organization is not ready to implement ERP system in better way; hence checking of organization’s preparation to adopt new system is an important prerequisite to ensure the success of ERP system implementation in an organization. Then comes what will be called as success of ERP system implementation. Benefits achieved by ERP system may be categorized into two categories; viz. tangible and intangible benefits. This research article presents a roadmap to ensure the success of ERP system implementation and benefits achieved through the new system as in success indicator. A case study is presented to evaluate the success and benefit achieved through the new system. The article gives a comprehensive approach to academicians and a roadmap to the organizations seeking to implement the ERP system.

Keywords: ERP system, decision support system, tangible, intangible

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Authors: Samuel Holder

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Mass incarceration in the United States is a human rights issue, not merely a civil rights problem. It is a human rights problem not only because the United States has a high rate of incarceration, but more importantly because of who is jailed, for what purpose they are jailed and, ultimately, the manner in which they are jailed. To sustain the scale of the criminal justice system, one of the darker policies involves a multi-tiered strategy of fee- and fine-collection, targeting, usually, the most vulnerable and poor, many of whom run into the law via small offenses that do not rise to the level of felonies. This paper advances the notion that this debt collection-to-incarceration pipeline is tantamount to a modern-day debtors’ prison system. This article seeks to confront the thorny issue of incarceration via criminal justice debt from a human rights and cause-lawyering position. It will argue that a two-pronged cause-lawyering strategy: the first focused on traditional litigation along constitutional grounds, and the second, an advocacy approach rooted in grassroots campaigns, designed to shift the normative operation and understanding of the rights of marginalized and racialized offenders. Ultimately, the argument suggests that this approach will be effective in combatting the (often highly privatized) criminal justice debt system and bring the roles of 'incapacitation, rehabilitation, deterrence, and retribution' back into the criminal justice legal conversation. Part I contextualizes and historicizes the role of fees, penalties, and fines in American criminal justice. Part II examines the emergence of private industry in the criminal justice system, and its role in the acceleration of profit-driven criminal justice debt collection and incarceration. Part III addresses the failures of the federal and state law and legislation in combatting predatory incarceration and debt collection in the criminal justice system, particularly as waged against the indigent and/or ethnically or racially marginalized. Part IV examines the potential for traditional cause-lawyering litigation along constitutional grounds, using case studies across contexts for illustration. Finally, Part V will review the radical cause-lawyer’s role in the normative struggle in redefining prisoners’ rights and the rights of the marginalized (and racialized) as they intersect at the crossroads of criminal justice debt. This paper will conclude with recommendations for litigation and advocacy, drawing on hypotheses advanced, and informed by case studies from a variety of both national and international jurisdictions.

Keywords: cause-lawyering, criminal justice debt, human rights, judicial fees

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Authors: Mark Lokanan

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The paper analyzes the processing of complaints against investment brokers and dealer members through the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) from 2008 to 2017. IIROC is the self-regulatory organization (SRO) that is responsible for policing investment dealers and brokerage firms that trade in Canada’s securities market. Data from the study came from IIROC's enforcement annual reports for the years examined. The case processing is evaluated base on the misconduct funnel that was originally designed for street crime and applies to the enforcement of investment fraud. The misconduct funnel is used as a framework to examine IIROC’s claim that it brought in more complaints (funnel in) than government regulators and shows how these complaints are funneled out and funneled away as they are processed through IIROC’s enforcement system. The results indicate that IIROC is ineffective in disciplining its members and is unable to handle the more serious quasi-criminal and improper sales practices offenses. It is hard not to see the results of the paper being used by the legislator in Ottawa to show the importance of a federal securities regulatory agency such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.

Keywords: investment fraud, securities regulation, compliance, enforcement

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Authors: Kushakov Kholmurodjon, Muhammadjonov Akbarshox

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This present paper is devoted to a system of second-order nonlinear differential equations with a special right-hand side, exactly, the linear part and a third-order polynomial of a special form. It is shown that for some relations between the parameters, there is a second-order curve in which trajectories leaving the points of this curve remain in the same place. Thus, the curve is invariant with respect to the given system. Moreover, this system is invariant under a non-degenerate linear transformation of variables. The form of this curve, depending on the relations between the parameters and the eigenvalues of the matrix, is proved. All solutions of this system of differential equations are shown analytically.

Keywords: dynamic system, ellipse, hyperbola, Hess system, polar coordinate system

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Authors: Patrick Oehler, Nicholas Folger

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Following a new public management approach, Germany has widely reformed its higher education system around the turn of the millennium. Aimed at preparing the country’s publicly funded universities and applied science colleges for a century of glory, the reforms led to the introduction of rigid performance measurement and management practices, which disrupted the inert system on all levels. Yet, many of the new policies met significant resistance, and some of them had to be reversed over time. Ever since Germany has struggled to find a balance between its pre- and its post-millennial approach to performance measurement and management. This contribution combines insights of a joint research project, which was created and funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research with the aim to better understand the effects of its performance measurement and management policies, including those the ministry had implemented over the previous decades. The research project combines researchers from 17 German research institutions who employed a wide range of theories from various disciplines and very diverse research methods to explain performance measurement and management and their consequences on the behavior of various stakeholders in higher education systems. In these projects, performance measurement and management have been researched from three angles—education, research, and third mission. The collaborative project differentiated functional and dysfunctional elements of common performance measurement and management practices, and identified key problems with these practices, such as (1) oversimplification of performance indicators, (2) ‘overmeasurement’ of performance in general, (3) excessive use of quantitative indicators, and (4), a myopic focus on research-focused indicators and a negligence of measures targeting education and third mission. To address these issues, the collaborative project developed alternative approaches to performance measurement and management, including suggestions for qualitative performance measures, improved supervision, review, and evaluations methods, and recommendations how to better balance education, research, and third mission. The authors would like to share the rich findings of the joint research project with an international audience and discuss their implications for alternative higher education systems.

Keywords: performance measurement, performance management, new public management, performance evaluation

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Authors: Farhad Ghasemi

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Along with transforming the international system into a complex and chaotic system, the fundamental question arises: how can deterrence be reconstructed conceptually and theoretically in this system model? The deterrence system is much more complex today than it was seven decades ago. This article suggests that the perception of deterrence as a linear system is a fundamental mistake because it does not consider the new dynamics of the international system, including network power dynamics. The author aims to improve this point by focusing on complexity and chaos theories, especially their nonlinearity and cascading failure principles. This article proposes that the perception of deterrence as a linear system is a fundamental mistake, as the new dynamics of the surrounding international system do not take into account. The author recognizes deterrence as a nonlinear system and introduces it as a concept in strategic studies.

Keywords: complexity, international system, deterrence, linear deterrence, nonlinear deterrence

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Authors: Dipanshu Sur, Ratnabali Chakravorty, Rimi Pal, Siddhartha Chatterjee, Joyshree Chaterjee, Amal Mallik

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Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disease in reproductive women with a complex hormonal disturbance that affects the menstrual cycle and leads to metabolic consequences in later life. Hyperandrogenaemia is noticeable features of PCOS and influence the process of folliculogenesis in women. The levels of Antimüllerian Hormone (AMH) reflect the number of pre-antral follicles and thus are a marker of oocyte pool – germinal reserve of the ovary for reproduction. Besides its utilization in IVF (In-vitro fertilization), determination of AMH may serve as an additional marker in the diagnostics of PCOS, where increased AMH levels reflect the severity of the disease. The positive correlation of serum AMH with the number of antral follicles was found also in patients with PCOS. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between AMH androgens and whether AMH contributes to altered folliculogenesis in non-obese women with PCOS. Methods: We designed a prospective study which included a total of 65 IVF individuals. It enrolled 26 cases of PCOS based on 2003 Rotterdam criteria and 39 ovulatory normal- non PCOS, healthy, age-matched controls. AMH levels and ovarian morphology were assessed. The relationships between AMH and androgenaemia in patients with and without PCOS were studied. Results: Mean age of PCOS patients were slightly higher than controls (32±4 and 28±3 years, respectively). AMH generally increased with antral follicle count (AFC) [P=0.001], testosterone, and luteinising hormone, and decreased with age, and serum sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). No significant relationships were found between circulating AMH levels and BMI between PCOS and non-PCOS patients. The calculation of AMH production per antral follicle (AMH/AF) showed that there was a significant difference in median AMH/AF between PCOS and non-PCOS (P =0.001). Both PCOS and non-PCOS groups showed a very similar increase in AMH with increases in AFC, but the PCOS patients had consistently higher AMH across all AFC levels. Conclusions: These observations indicate that there is a connection between AMH and androgens levels between PCOS and non-PCOS East Indian women. Excessive granulosa cell activity may be implicated in the abnormal follicular dynamic of the syndrome. They are higher in women with PCOS and, on the other hand, very low in women with an ovarian failure.

Keywords: anti-Mullerian hormone, polycystic ovary syndrome, antral follicle count, androgens

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Authors: Nora Arbaoui, Rachid Tadili

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This study focuses on a solar system designed to heat an agricultural greenhouse. This solar system is based on the heating of a transfer fluid that circulates inside the greenhouse through a solar copper coil integrated into the roof of the greenhouse. The thermal energy stored during the day will be released during the night to improve the microclimate of the greenhouse. This system was tested in a small agricultural greenhouse in order to ameliorate the different operational parameters. The climatic and agronomic results obtained with this system are significant in comparison with a greenhouse with no heating system.

Keywords: solar system, agricultural greenhouse, heating, storage, drying

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Authors: Amal M. Alrayes

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Data and system quality play a central role in organizational success, and the quality of any existing information system has a major influence on the effectiveness of overall system performance.Given the importance of system and data quality to an organization, it is relevant to highlight their importance on organizational performance in the Kingdom of Bahrain. This research aims to discover whether system quality and data quality are related, and to study the impact of system and data quality on organizational success. A theoretical model based on previous research is used to show the relationship between data and system quality, and organizational impact. We hypothesize, first, that system quality is positively associated with organizational impact, secondly that system quality is positively associated with data quality, and finally that data quality is positively associated with organizational impact. A questionnaire was conducted among public and private organizations in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The results show that there is a strong association between data and system quality, that affects organizational success.

Keywords: data quality, performance, system quality, Kingdom of Bahrain

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Authors: Gary Young, David Zepeda, Gilbert Nyaga

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This study investigated whether vertical integration of hospitals and physicians is associated with better care for patients with cardiac conditions. A dramatic change in the U.S. hospital industry is the integration of hospital and physicians through hospital acquisition of physician practices. Yet, there is little evidence regarding whether this form of vertical integration leads to better operational performance of hospitals. The study was conducted as an observational investigation based on a pooled, cross-sectional database. The study sample comprised over hospitals in the State of California. The time frame for the study was 2010 to 2012. The key performance measure was hospitals’ degree of compliance with performance criteria set out by the federal government for managing patients with cardiac conditions. These criteria relate to the types of clinical tests and medications that hospitals should follow for cardiac patients but hospital compliance requires the cooperation of a hospital’s physicians. Data for this measure was obtained from a federal website that presents performance scores for U.S. hospitals. The key independent variable was the percentage of cardiologists that a hospital employs (versus cardiologists who are affiliated but not employed by the hospital). Data for this measure was obtained from the State of California which requires hospitals to report financial and operation data each year including numbers of employed physicians. Other characteristics of hospitals (e.g., information technology for cardiac care, volume of cardiac patients) were also evaluated as possible complements or substitutes for physician employment by hospitals. Additional sources of data included the American Hospital Association and the U.S. Census. Empirical models were estimated with generalized estimating equations (GEE). Findings suggest that physician employment is positively associated with better hospital performance for cardiac care. However, findings also suggest that information technology is a substitute for physician employment.

Keywords: physician employment, hospitals, verical integration, cardiac care

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Authors: Claudia Rodriguez-Espinosa, Erika Elizabeth Pérez Múzquiz

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Since the creation of the “Pueblos Mágicos” program in 2001, a series of social and cultural events had directly affected the heritage conservation of the 121 registered localities until 2018, when the federal government terminated the program. Many studies have been carried out that seek to analyze from different perspectives and disciplines the consequences that these appointments have generated in the “Pueblos Mágicos.” Multidisciplinary groups such as the one headed by Carmen Valverde and Liliana López Levi, have brought together specialists from all over the Mexican Republic to create a set of diagnoses of most of these settlements, and although each one has unique specificities, there is a constant in most of them that has to do with the loss of cultural heritage and that is related to transculturality. There are several factors identified that have fostered a cultural loss, as a direct reflection of the economic crisis that prevails in Mexico. It is important to remember that the origin of this program had as its main objective to promote the growth and development of local economies since one of the conditions for entering the program is that they have less than 20,000 inhabitants. With this goal in mind, one of the first actions that many “Pueblos Mágicos” carried out was to improve or create an infrastructure to receive both national and foreign tourists since this was practically non-existent. Creating hotels, restaurants, cafes, training certified tour guides, among other actions, have led to one of the great problems they face: globalization. Although by itself it is not bad, its impact in many cases has been negative for heritage conservation. The entry into and contact with new cultures has led to the undervaluation of cultural traditions, their transformation and even their total loss. This work seeks to present specific cases of transformation and loss of cultural heritage, as well as to reflect on the problem and propose scenarios in which the negative effects can be reversed. For this text, 36 “Pueblos Mágicos” have been selected for study, based on those settlements that are cited in volumes I and IV (the first and last of the collection) of the series produced by the multidisciplinary group led by Carmen Valverde and Liliana López Levi (researchers from UNAM and UAM Xochimilco respectively) in the project supported by CONACyT entitled “Pueblos Mágicos. An interdisciplinary vision”, of which we are part. This sample is considered representative since it forms 30% of the total of 121 “Pueblos Mágicos” existing at that moment. With this information, the elements of its intangible heritage loss or transformation have been identified in every chapter based on the texts written by the participants of that project. Finally, this text shows an analysis of the effects that this federal program, as a public policy applied to 132 populations, has had on the conservation or transformation of the intangible cultural heritage of the “Pueblos Mágicos.” Transculturality, globalization, the creation of identities and the desire to increase the flow of tourists have impacted the changes that traditions (main intangible cultural heritage) have had in the 18 years that the federal program lasted.

Keywords: public policies, cultural tourism, heritage preservation, pueblos mágicos program

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Authors: Anuphan Suttimarn, Natcha Wattanaprapa, Suwaree Yordchim

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The aim of this study is to develop the online journal system using a web application to manage the journal service of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University in order to improve the journal management of the university. The main structures of the system process consist of 1. journal content management system 2. membership system of the journal and 3. online submission or review process. The investigators developed the system based on a web application using open source OJS software and phpMyAdmin to manage a research database. The system test showed that this online system 'Online Journal System (OJS)' could shorten the time in the period of submission article to journal and helped in managing a journal procedure efficiently and accurately. The quality evaluation of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat online journal system (SSRUOJS) undertaken by experts and researchers in 5 aspects; design, usability, security, reducing time, and accuracy showed the highest average value (X=4.30) on the aspect of reducing time. Meanwhile, the system efficiency evaluation was on an excellent level (X=4.13).

Keywords: online journal system, Journal management, Information system development, OJS

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Authors: Xuezhang Hou

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In the present paper, a hybrid hyperbolic dynamic system formulated by partial differential equations with initial and boundary conditions is considered. First, the system is transformed to an abstract evolution system in an appropriate Hilbert space, and spectral analysis and semigroup generation of the system operator is discussed. Subsequently, a sliding model control problem is proposed and investigated, and an equivalent control method is introduced and applied to the system. Finally, a significant result that the state of the system can be approximated by an ideal sliding mode under control in any accuracy is derived and examined.

Keywords: hyperbolic dynamic system, sliding model control, semigroup of linear operators, partial differential equations

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Authors: Robert Rorie, Lisa Fern

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The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) poses a variety of technical challenges to UAS developers and aviation regulators. In response to growing demand for access to civil airspace in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has produced a roadmap identifying key areas requiring further research and development. One such technical challenge is the development of a ‘detect and avoid’ system (DAA; previously referred to as ‘sense and avoid’) to replace the ‘see and avoid’ requirement in manned aviation. The purpose of the DAA system is to support the pilot, situated at a ground control station (GCS) rather than in the cockpit of the aircraft, in maintaining ‘well clear’ of nearby aircraft through the use of GCS displays and alerts. In addition to its primary function of aiding the pilot in maintaining well clear, the DAA system must also safely interoperate with existing NAS systems and operations, such as the airspace management procedures of air traffic controllers (ATC) and collision avoidance (CA) systems currently in use by manned aircraft, namely the Traffic alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) II. It is anticipated that many UAS architectures will integrate both a DAA system and a TCAS II. It is therefore necessary to explicitly study the integration of DAA and TCAS II alerting structures and maneuver guidance formats to ensure that pilots understand the appropriate type and urgency of their response to the various alerts. This paper presents a concept of interoperability for the two systems. The concept was developed with the goal of avoiding any negative impact on the performance level of TCAS II (understanding that TCAS II must largely be left as-is) while retaining a DAA system that still effectively enables pilots to maintain well clear, and, as a result, successfully reduces the frequency of collision hazards. The interoperability concept described in the paper focuses primarily on facilitating the transition from a late-stage DAA encounter (where a loss of well clear is imminent) to a TCAS II corrective Resolution Advisory (RA), which requires pilot compliance with the directive RA guidance (e.g., climb, descend) within five seconds of its issuance. The interoperability concept was presented to 10 participants (6 active UAS pilots and 4 active commercial pilots) in a medium-fidelity, human-in-the-loop simulation designed to stress different aspects of the DAA and TCAS II systems. Pilot response times, compliance rates and subjective assessments were recorded. Results indicated that pilots exhibited comprehension of, and appropriate prioritization within, the DAA-TCAS II combined alert structure. Pilots demonstrated a high rate of compliance with TCAS II RAs and were also seen to respond to corrective RAs within the five second requirement established for manned aircraft. The DAA system presented under test was also shown to be effective in supporting pilots’ ability to maintain well clear in the overwhelming majority of cases in which pilots had sufficient time to respond. The paper ends with a discussion of next steps for research on integrating UAS into civil airspace.

Keywords: detect and avoid, interoperability, traffic alert and collision avoidance system (TCAS II), unmanned aircraft systems

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Authors: Arjun K., Arumugam Sankaran, Sanjay Kumar, Mousumi Das

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The paper analyses the existence of endogenous growth scenario emanating from the demographic dividend in India during the liberalization period starting from 1980. Demographic dividend creates a fertile ground for the cultivation of human and knowledge capitals contributing to technological progress which can be measured using total factor productivity. The relationship among total factor productivity, human and knowledge capitals are examined in an open endogenous framework for the period 1980-2016. The control variables such as foreign direct investment, trade openness, energy consumption are also employed. The data are sourced from Reserve Bank of India, World Bank, International Energy Agency and The National Science and Technology Management Information System. To understand the dynamic association among variables, ARDL bounds approach to cointegration followed by Toda-Yamamoto causality test are used. The results reveal a short run and long run relationship among the variables supported by the existence of causality. This calls for an integrated policy to build and augment human capital and research and development activities to sustain and pace up growth and development in the nation.

Keywords: demographic dividend, young population, open endogenous growth models, human and knowledge capital

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Authors: Bello, A., Muhammed Ibrahim Abba., Abdullahi, M., Dauda, Sabo, & Shittu, A. T.

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This study investigated the Predictors of Lecturers Knowledge Sharing Acceptance on Open Educational Resources (OER) in North-East Nigerian in Universities. The study population comprised of 632 lecturers of Federal Universities in North-east Nigeria. The study sample covered 338 lecturers who were selected purposively from Adamawa, Bauchi and Borno State Federal Universities in Nigeria. The study adopted a prediction correlational research design. The instruments used for data collection was the questionnaire. Experts in the field of educational technology validated the instrument and tested it for reliability checks using Cronbach’s alpha. The constructs on lecturers’ acceptance to share OER yielded a reliability coefficient of; α = .956 for Performance Expectancy, α = .925; for Effort Expectancy, α = .955; for Social Influence, α = .879; for Facilitating Conditions and α = .948 for acceptance to share OER. the researchers contacted the Deanery of faculties of education and enlisted local coordinators to facilitate the data collection process at each university. The data was analysed using multiple sequential regression statistic at a significance level of 0.05 using SPSS version 23.0. The findings of the study revealed that performance expectancy (β = 0.658; t = 16.001; p = 0.000), effort expectancy (β = 0.194; t = 3.802; p = 0.000), social influence (β = 0.306; t = 5.246; p = 0.000), collectively indicated that the variables have a predictive capacity to stimulate lecturer’s acceptance to share their resources on OER repository. However, the finding revealed that facilitating conditions (β = .053; t = .899; p = 0.369), does not have a predictive capacity to stimulate lecturer’s acceptance to share their resources on OER repository. Based on these findings, the study recommends among others that the university management should consider adjusting OER policy to be centered around actualizing lecturers career progression.

Keywords: acceptance, lecturers, open educational resources, knowledge sharing

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Authors: M. S. Sarkar, J. A. Johnson, S. Sen, G. K. Saha, K. Ramesh

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There is growing recognition of several important roles played by tigers for maintaining sustainable biodiversity at diverse ecosystems in South and South-East Asia. Only <3200 individuals are left in the wild because of poaching and habitat loss. Thus, restoring wild population is an emerging as well as important conservation initiative, but such efforts still remain challenging due to their elusive and solitary behavior. After careful translocation of few individuals, how reintroduced individuals colonize into suitable habitat and achieve stable stage population through reproduction is vital information for forest managers and policy makers of its 13 distribution range countries. Four wild and two captive radio collared tigers were reintroduced at Panna Tiger Reserve, Madhya-pradesh, India during 2009-2014. We critically examined their settlement behavior and population growth over the period. Results from long term telemetry data showed that male explored larger areas rapidly in short time span, while females explored small area in long time period and with significant high rate of movement in both sexes during exploratory period. Significant difference in home range sizes of tigers were observed in exploratory and settlement period. Though all reintroduced tigers preferred densely vegetated undisturbed forest patches within the core area of tiger reserve, a niche based k select analysis showed that individual variation in habitat selection was prominent among reintroduced tigers. Total 18 litter of >42 known cubs were born with low mortality rate, high maternity rate, high observed growth rate and short generation time in both the sexes. The population achieved its carrying capacity in a very short time span, marking success of this current tiger conservation programme. Our study information could provide significant insights on the tiger biology of translocated tigers with implication for future conservation strategies that consider translocation based recovery in their range countries.

Keywords: reintroduction, tiger, home range, demography

Procedia PDF Downloads 195