Search results for: failure prediction

Authors: Tonny Ograh, Joshua Ayarkwa, Dickson Osei-Asibey, Alex Acheampong, Peter Amoah

Abstract:

Theories are used to improve the conceptualization of research ideas. These theories enhance valuable elucidations that help us to grasp the meaning of research findings. Nevertheless, the use of theories to promote studies in green supplier selection in procurement decisions has attracted little attention. With the emergence of sustainable procurement, public procurement practitioners in Ghana are yet to achieve relevant knowledge on green supplier selections due to insufficient knowledge and inadequate appropriate frameworks. The flagrancy of the consequences of public procurers’ failure to integrate environmental considerations into supplier selection explains the adoption of a multi-theory approach for comprehension of the dynamics of green integration into supplier selection. In this paper, the practicality of three theories for improving the understanding of the influential factors enhancing the integration of environmental sustainability into supplier selection was reviewed. The three theories are Resource-Based Theory, Human Capital Theory and Absorptive Capacity Theory. This review uncovered knowledge management, top management commitment, and environmental management capabilities as important elements needed for the integration of environmental sustainability into supplier selection in public procurement. The theoretical review yielded a framework that conceptualizes knowledge and capabilities of practitioners relevant to the incorporation of environmental sustainability into supplier selection in public procurement.

Keywords: environmental, sustainability, supplier selection, environmental procurement, sustainable procurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: K. Petcharaporn

Abstract:

The external characteristics of tomatoes, such as freshness, color and size are typically used in quality control processes for tomatoes sorting. However, the internal mold infection of intact tomato cannot be sorted based on a visible assessment and destructive method alone. In this study, a non-destructive technique was used to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes by using transmittance visible and near infrared (VIS-NIR) spectroscopy. Spectra for 200 samples contained 100 samples for normal tomatoes and 100 samples for mold infected tomatoes were acquired in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. This data was used in conjunction with partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) method to generate a classification model for tomato quality between groups of internal mold infection of intact tomato samples. For this task, the data was split into two groups, 140 samples were used for a training set and 60 samples were used for a test set. The spectra of both normal and internally mold infected tomatoes showed different features in the visible wavelength range. Combined spectral pretreatments of standard normal variate transformation (SNV) and smoothing (Savitzky-Golay) gave the optimal calibration model in training set, 85.0% (63 out of 71 for the normal samples and 56 out of 69 for the internal mold samples). The classification accuracy of the best model on the test set was 91.7% (29 out of 29 for the normal samples and 26 out of 31 for the internal mold tomato samples). The results from this experiment showed that transmittance VIS-NIR spectroscopy can be used as a non-destructive technique to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, mold, quality, prediction, transmittance

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Etika Sukma Adiyanti, H. N. Nurul Huda Putu Ekapraja, Gugun Gunawan

Abstract:

Global warming causes climate change and sea level rise. This is a threat for coastal regions, especially for coastal settlements with activities that are influenced by this natural phenomenon. Consequences are damage of houses, humid house environment, sustainability of the houses, obstructed economic activities and domestic works, disruption of sanitation facilities, lack of electricity, failure of transport system, psychological issues and other. Icons Tambak Lorok as 'Fisherman Village' is not something familiar to residents of the city of Semarang. Especially for the housewife who every day have to buy the ingredients high in protein and omega fish auction which is adjacent to the main street market in the village of Tambak Lorok. However, there are major problems that are being experienced by this small neighborhood. In fact, this issue includes seven infrastructure that should spoil the fishermen in activity with marine life. With this research, we will investigate water urbanism and climate change resiliency in Semarang, specifically the traditional fisher community of Tambak Lorok. We intend to find out how the local people in the fisher settlement Tambak Lorok deal with water urbanism, proverty and living with floods. So, we have a good solution for this problem, Floating Stage. We think that Tambak Lorok needs a new design for the common future. With this, One Building at A Time for Tambak Lorok, will be a good solution.

Keywords: fisher community, environment, climate change, settlement

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Bahlous Afef, Bouzid Kahena, Bardkis Ahlem, Mrad Mehdi, Kalai Eya, Sonia Bahri, Abdelmoula Jaouida

Abstract:

Diabetic nephropathy is the first cause of chronic renal failure and hemodialysis use in several countries including Tunisia. The role of hypertension (HT) as major risk factor for nephropathy is undeniable. The aim of our study was to determine the relationship between blood pressure and nephropathy in a population of diabetic type 2 recently discovered. Materials and methods: We conducted a prospective study focused on 60 patients with type 2 diabetes recently discovered (<5 years). Each patient have benefited from: -a full clinical examination with measurement of blood pressure - exploring a blood-glucose control and renal function -urinary exploration with the determination of proteinuria microalbuminumie of 24 hours with a immunoturbidimetric method using Architect (ABBOTT CI 8200). Results and discussion: Hypertension was present in 46.7% of cases. Twenty patients, 35% of the study population showed nephropathy. Four of these patients (6.66% of cases) had proteinuria, while 16 (26.6% of patients) had microalbuminuria (> 30mg/24 hours). Systolic blood pressure was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with the presence of nephropathy (139 +19.44) vs. for the group with normal renal function (128.65 +15.12 mmHg). Conclusion: The etiology of diabetic nephropathy is multifactorial. However, systolic blood pressure and glycemic control remains the major risk factors. Better glycemic control and treatment of hypertension allowed preventing and slowing the progression of diabetic nephropathy.

Keywords: hypertension, nephropathy, hemodialysis, diabetes

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Authors: Willie Eselebor

Abstract:

Environmental governance is not new, but may consist of a series of actions taken to establish sanity and ensure sustainable environment. While there is a growing accord linking disaster risk reduction with the management of environment and natural resources, little is known about failure to act which constitute vulnerability and how improved governance reduces risk globally. The paper reviews emerging trends in the field of application of governance tools and approaches for reducing disaster risk. The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) enjoin all stakeholders to stimulate the sustainable use and management of ecosystems, which promote the implementation of integrated environmental and natural resource planning that incorporate disaster risk reduction, including structural and non-structural measures, such as integrated management of fragile ecosystems. The methodology adopted is a case study of disaster-prone sites, prompting guided analysis on which hazards are traceable to environmental degradation, why a degraded environment reduces community resilience; how healthy ecosystems provide natural defense, and which opportunities exist to address gaps in reduction of disasters in Nigeria. The paper further analyses the interaction between disaster risk and environmental change. It is established that environmental governance remains a challenge; which implies that there is the need for a shift in traditional approaches to disaster risk management; exploring new initiatives and allowing environmental managers to be docketed as disaster risk managers in context, potentially opening up a window of dialogue on disaster risk management.

Keywords: disaster, ecosystem, environment, risk

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Authors: Strahinja Kovačević, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija Jevrić, Milica Karadžić

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The present study is based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis of eighteen compounds with anti-prion activity. The structures and anti-prion activities (expressed in response units, RU%) of the analyzed compounds are taken from CHEMBL database. In the first step of analysis 85 molecular descriptors were calculated and based on them the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were carried out in order to detect potential significant similarities or dissimilarities among the studied compounds. The calculated molecular descriptors were physicochemical, lipophilicity and ADMET (absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity) descriptors. The first stage of the QSAR analysis was simple linear regression modeling. It resulted in one acceptable model that correlates Henry's law constant with RU% units. The obtained 2D-QSAR model was validated by cross-validation as an internal validation method. The validation procedure confirmed the model’s quality and therefore it can be used for prediction of anti-prion activity. The next stage of the analysis of anti-prion activity will include 3D-QSAR and molecular docking approaches in order to select the most promising compounds in treatment of prion diseases. These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-268/2016-02 financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of AP Vojvodina.

Keywords: anti-prion activity, chemometrics, molecular modeling, QSAR

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Authors: J. M. Mayoral, M. Anaya

Abstract:

The urban and economic development of cities demands the construction of water use and flood control infrastructure. Likewise, it is necessary to determine the safety level of the structures built with the current standards and if it is necessary to define the reinforcement actions. The foregoing is even more important in structures of great importance, such as dams, since they imply a greater risk for the population in case of failure or undesirable operating conditions (e.g., seepage, cracks, subsidence). This article presents a methodology for determining the seismic integrity of dams in urban areas. From direct measurements of the dynamic properties using geophysical exploration and ambient seismic noise measurements, the seismic integrity of the concrete-faced rockfill dam selected as a case of study is evaluated. To validate the results, two accelerometer stations were installed (e.g., free field and crest of the dam). Once the dynamic properties were determined, three-dimensional finite difference models were developed to evaluate the dam seismic performance for different intensities of movement, considering the site response and soil-structure interaction effects. The seismic environment was determined from the uniform hazard spectra for several return periods. Based on the results obtained, the safety level of the dam against different seismic actions was determined, and the effectiveness of ambient seismic noise measurements in dynamic characterization and subsequent evaluation of the seismic integrity of urban dams was evaluated.

Keywords: risk, seismic, soil-structure interaction, urban dams

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

Abstract:

This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes; it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to affect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, long short-term memory network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares

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Authors: Mai M. Helmy

Abstract:

Although the role of either nitric oxide (NO) or endothelin receptors modulation in the severity of cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity has been recognized in previous studies including our own, the possible interaction between the two pathways remains obscure. In this study, we tested the possible interaction between the nitrergic and endothelin pathways in cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in male rats. Sprague Dawley male rats (200 to 250 g) were divided into four groups: Control (given a single dose of normal saline, i.p.), cisplatin (6 mg/kg, i.p.), cisplatin+Sildenafil (2 mg/kg, i.p.), cisplatin+Sildenafil+BQ-123 (1 mg/kg, i.p.). Each of the co-administered drugs was given in two doses; one hour before and one day after the cisplatin dose. Acute cisplatin administration resulted in significant increases in BUN and serum creatinine levels at 96 h following cisplatin injection. Increased levels of MDA, TNF-α and caspase-3, decreased nitrite/nitrate level and SOD activity in kidney homogenates were also observed following cisplatin injection. According to the obtained results, the co-adminstration of sildenafil alone with cisplatin offered a reno-protective effect comparable to that obtained following the concurrent administration of both sildenafil and the selective ETAR antagonist BQ-123. Thus, the current study is the first to reveal that the presence of an intact NO/cGMP system may offer a moderate reno-protective effect against cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity even in the presence of ETAR-mediated vasoconstriction, suggesting the absence of obvious functional interaction between the nitrergic and endothelin pathways in cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in male rats.

Keywords: BQ-123, cisplatin, endothelin-1, nephrotoxicity, sildenafil

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Authors: Michal Urzynicok, Krzysztof Kwiecinski

Abstract:

The development of materials used in the power generation industry for the production of boilers and their parts is characterized by high steam parameters, which present new challenges. Implementation of new combinations of alloying elements that lead to the best possible mechanical properties, including creep resistance, greatly affects new steels' weldability. All new grades have to undergo many different examinations, in regards to bending and welding, in order to enable the development of fabrication technologies, ensuring failure-free production and assembly of boiler components. 12% Cr martensitic steels like THOR™ 115 or VM-12 SHC are characterized by high oxidation resistance in high-temperature environments. At the moment, VM-12 SHC can be found in many boilers where both headers and superheater coils were produced. As this material is very difficult to obtain, a search for a proper replacement has begun. A new creep strength-enhanced ferritic steel for service in supercritical and ultra-supercritical boiler applications was developed by Tenaris in Italy and it is designated as Thor™115 (Tenaris High Oxidation Resistance). As high demand in power plants occurred to replace some parts of existing installations fabricated from VM12-SHC with other alternatives, a new development of welding procedures has begun to prepare fabricators for the challenges of joining old components with new THOR™ 115 material. This paper covers the first research of welding of dissimilar joints made out of VM12-SHC and THOR™ 115.

Keywords: thor, vm12, dissimilar welding, weldability

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Kenneth O. Otasowie, Matthew Ikuabe, Clinton Aigbavboa, Ayodeji Oke

Abstract:

The quantity surveying (QS) profession is one of the professions in the construction industry, and it is saddled with the responsibility of measuring the number of materials as well as the workmanship required to get work done in the industry. This responsibility is vital to the success of a construction project as it determines if a project will be completed on time, within budget, and up to the required standard. However, the practice has been criticised severally for failure to accurately execute her responsibility. The need to reduce errors, inaccuracies and omissions has made the adoption of modern technologies such as building information modeling (BIM) inevitable in its practice. Nevertheless, there are barriers to the adoption of BIM in QS practice in South Africa (SA). Thus, this study aims to investigate these barriers. A survey design was adopted. A total number of one hundred and fifteen (115) questionnaires were administered to quantity surveyors in Guateng Province, SA, and ninety (90) were returned and found suitable for analysis. Collected data were analysed using percentage, mean item score, standard deviation, one-sample t-test, and Kruskal-Wallis. The findings show that lack of BIM expertise, lack of government enforcement, resistance to change, and no client demand for BIM are the most significant barriers to the adoption of BIM in QS practice. As a result, this study recommends that trainings on BIM technology be prioritised, and government must take the lead in BIM adoption in the country, particularly in public projects.

Keywords: barriers, BIM, quantity surveying practice, South Africa

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Authors: Claudia Donoso

Abstract:

This study compares the restriction of mobility of migrants and asylum seekers during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and Ecuador. Based on the discourse analysis of anti-migrant rhetoric in press articles, migrant stories in the press, reports, and border control practices, the study examines the Ecuadorian government’s response to the migration flow of Venezuelans and the United States enforcement practices against Latin American asylum seekers. By exploring Giorgio Agamben’s concept of bare life, the article argues that this failure to protect mobility rights is due to the United States and Ecuador’s views of forced migrants as bare life and carriers of the virus, justifying xenophobia, resistance to humanitarian international law, and exceptionalism. By drawing on a feminist intersectional approach, the study adds to recent research on the securitization of forced migration and challenge the race/ethnicity, immigration status, class, and nationality-based discrimination of the measures undertaken during the pandemic. The article illustrates how the treatment of forced migrants as bare life was aggravated by their intersectional inequalities. It concludes by providing recommendations that could be enforced by the US and Ecuadorian governments to protect the right to freedom of mobility.

Keywords: bare life, intersectionality, mobility rights, COVID-19, Ecuador, United States

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: K. Petcharaporn, N. Prathengjit

Abstract:

The external characteristics of tomatoes, such as freshness, color and size are typically used in quality control processes for tomatoes sorting. However, the internal mold infection of intact tomato cannot be sorted based on a visible assessment and destructive method alone. In this study, a non-destructive technique was used to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes by using transmittance visible and near infrared (VIS-NIR) spectroscopy. Spectra for 200 samples contained 100 samples for normal tomatoes and 100 samples for mold infected tomatoes were acquired in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. This data was used in conjunction with partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) method to generate a classification model for tomato quality between groups of internal mold infection of intact tomato samples. For this task, the data was split into two groups, 140 samples were used for a training set and 60 samples were used for a test set. The spectra of both normal and internally mold infected tomatoes showed different features in the visible wavelength range. Combined spectral pretreatments of standard normal variate transformation (SNV) and smoothing (Savitzky-Golay) gave the optimal calibration model in training set, 85.0% (63 out of 71 for the normal samples and 56 out of 69 for the internal mold samples). The classification accuracy of the best model on the test set was 91.7% (29 out of 29 for the normal samples and 26 out of 31 for the internal mold tomato samples). The results from this experiment showed that transmittance VIS-NIR spectroscopy can be used as a non-destructive technique to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, mold, quality, prediction, transmittance

Procedia PDF Downloads 502

Authors: Albert Suryaprawira

Abstract:

Patients requiring correction of severe Class III skeletal discrepancy historically has been among the most challenging treatments for orthodontists. Correction of an aesthetic and functional problem is crucially important. This is a case report of an adult male aged 18 years who complained of difficulty in chewing and speaking. Patient has a prominent profile with mandibular excess. The pre-treatment cephalometric radiograph was taken to analyse the skeletal problem and to measure the amount of bone movement and the prediction soft tissue response. The panoramic radiograph was also taken to analyse bone quality, bone abnormality, third molar impaction, etc. Before the surgery, the pre-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to re-evaluate the plan and to settle the final amount of bone cut. After the surgery, the post-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to confirm the result with the plan. The superimposition between those radiographs was performed to analyse the outcome. It includes the superimposition of the cranial base, maxilla, and mandible. Superimposition is important to describe the amount of hard and soft tissue movement. It is also important to predict the possibility of relapse after the surgery. The patient needs to understand all the surgical plan, outcome and relapse prevention. The surgery included mandibular set back by bilateral sagittal split osteotomies. Although the discrepancy was severe using this combination of treatment and the use of radiographic superimposition, an aesthetically pleasing and stable result was achieved.

Keywords: cephalometric, mandibular set back, orthognathic, superimposition

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Authors: Adil Kaval, Digdem Muge Siyez

Abstract:

With the negative effects of internet use in a person's life, the use of the Internet has become an issue. This subject was mostly considered as internet addiction, and it was investigated. In literature, it is noteworthy that some theoretical models have been proposed to explain the reasons for internet addiction. In addition to these theoretical models, it may be thought that the coping style for stressing events can be a predictor of internet addiction. It was aimed to test with logistic regression the effect of high school students' coping styles on internet addiction levels. Sample of the study consisted of 770 Turkish adolescents (471 girls, 299 boys) selected from high schools in the 2017-2018 academic year in İzmir province. Internet Addiction Test, Coping Scale for Child and Adolescents and a demographic information form were used in this study. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicated that the model of coping styles predicted internet addiction provides a statistically significant prediction of internet addiction. Gender does not predict whether or not to be addicted to the internet. The active coping style is not effective on internet addiction levels, while the avoiding and negative coping style are effective on internet addiction levels. With this model, % 79.1 of internet addiction in high school is estimated. The Negelkerke pseudo R2 indicated that the model accounted for %35 of the total variance. The results of this study on Turkish adolescents are similar to the results of other studies in the literature. It can be argued that avoiding and negative coping styles are important risk factors in the development of internet addiction.

Keywords: adolescents, coping, internet addiction, regression analysis

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Authors: Hasan Husnu Korkmaz, Serra Zerrin Korkmaz

Abstract:

The reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures composed of beams, columns, shear walls and the slabs. The other members are assumed to be nonstructural. Especially the brick infill walls which are used to separate the rooms or spaces are just handled as dead loads. On the other hand, if these infills are constructed within the frame bays, they also have higher shear and compression capacities. It is a well-known fact that, brick infills increase the lateral rigidity of the structure and thought to be a reserve capacity in the design. But, brick infills can create unfavorable failure or damage modes in the earthquake action such as soft story or short columns. The increase in the lateral rigidity also causes an over estimation of natural period of the structure and the corresponding earthquake loads in the design are less than the actual ones. In order to obtain accurate and realistic design results, the infills must be modelled in the structural design and their capacities must be included. Unfortunately, in Turkish Earthquake Code, there is no design methodology for the engineers. In this paper, finite element modelling of infilled reinforced concrete structures are studied. The proposed or used method is compared with the experimental results of a previous study. The effect of infills on the structural response is expressed within the paper.

Keywords: seismic loading, brick infills, finite element analysis, reinforced concrete, earthquake code

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Authors: Mohammed Abubakar Mawoli

Abstract:

Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is a useful tool for predicting entrepreneurial intentions among individuals or groups of people. In view of the Nigerian government’s renewed educational policies and programs to prepare Nigerian undergraduates towards self-reliance and employers of labor after graduation, it becomes pertinent to empirically examine and predict the undergraduate’s entrepreneurial intentions at graduation. Thus, this study primarily examines the undergraduates entrepreneurial intentions using TPB, which includes perceived desirability, perceived social norm, and perceived feasibility factors. In so doing, a questionnaire research method was adopted in which 219 copies of a questionnaire distributed to final year undergraduates were belonging to five departments with a total population of 487 students. A combination of relative frequency, mean standard deviation and multiple regression statistical tools were employed for data analysis. The study found that TPB components exert a significant composite effect on undergraduate’s entrepreneurial intentions. Based on individual contribution of the independent variables, Perceived Desirability is the strongest predictor of the undergraduate’s entrepreneurial intentions, while Perceived Social Norm is a strong predictor of the undergraduate’s entrepreneurial intentions. However, Perceived Feasibility is not a strong predictor of student’s entrepreneurial intentions. The study therefore, recommends that the Perceived desirability, which is formed and shaped by ones level of education and skills acquisition, be improved upon to create the expected positive impact on graduates entrepreneurial intentions and possible venture creation.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intentions, planned behaviour, prediction, Nigeria

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Authors: P. Byrnes, F. A. DiazDelaO

Abstract:

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) has become widely recognised as one of the leading algorithms in machine learning for both regression and binary classification. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions, referred to as support vectors. Despite its popularity amongst practitioners, SVM has some limitations, with the most significant being the generation of point prediction as opposed to predictive distributions. Stemming from this issue, a probabilistic model namely, Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines (PCVM), has been proposed which respects the original functional form of SVM whilst also providing a predictive distribution. As physical system designs become more complex, an increasing number of classification tasks involving industrial applications consist of more than two classes. Consequently, this research proposes a framework which allows for the extension of PCVM to a multi class setting. Additionally, the original PCVM framework relies on the use of type II maximum likelihood to provide estimates for both the kernel hyperparameters and model evidence. In a high dimensional multi class setting, however, this approach has been shown to be ineffective due to bad scaling as the number of classes increases. Accordingly, we propose the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods to provide a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. The proposed framework will be validated against current multi class classifiers through synthetic and real life implementations.

Keywords: probabilistic classification vector machines, multi class classification, MCMC, support vector machines

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Authors: Amal Hentati, Mbarka Selmi, Tarek Kormi, Julien Baroth, Barthelemy Harthong

Abstract:

The impact of uncertainties on the performance assessment of shallow foundations is often significant. The need of the geotechnical engineers to a more objective and rigorous description of soil variations permitting to quantify these uncertainties and to incorporate them into calculation methods led to the development of reliability approaches. In this context, a mechanical-reliability coupling was developed in this paper, using a program coded in Matlab and the finite element software Abaqus, for the bearing capacity assessment of shallow foundations. The reliability analysis, based on the finite element method, assumed both soil cohesion and friction angle as uncertain parameters characterized by normal or lognormal probability distributions. The inherent spatial variability of both soil properties was, then, taken into account using 1D stationary random fields. The application of the proposed methodology to a shallow foundation subjected to a centered vertical loading permitted to highlight the proposed process interest. Findings proved the insufficiency of the conventional approach to predict the foundation failure and a high sensitivity of the ultimate loads to the soil properties uncertainties, mainly those related to the friction angle, was noted. Moreover, an asymmetry of both displacement and velocity fields was obtained.

Keywords: mechanical-reliability coupling, finite element method, shallow foundation, random fields, spatial variability

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Authors: Hee-Chang Lim

Abstract:

The study aims to understand the surface pressure distribution around the bodies such as the suction pressure in the leading edge on the top and side-face when the aspect ratio of bodies and the wind direction are changed, respectively. We carried out the wind tunnel measurement and numerical simulation around a series of rectangular bodies (40^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×80^w×80^h, 160^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×40^w×80^h and 80^d×160^w×80^h in mm³) placed in a deep turbulent boundary layer. Based on a modern numerical platform, the Navier-Stokes equation with the typical 2-equation (k-ε model) and the DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) turbulence model has been calculated, and they are both compared with the measurement data. Regarding the turbulence model, the DES model makes a better prediction comparing with the k-ε model, especially when calculating the separated turbulent flow around a bluff body with sharp edged corner. In order to observe the effect of wind direction on the pressure variation around the cube (e.g., 80^d×80^w×80^h in mm), it rotates at 0º, 10º, 20º, 30º, and 45º, which stands for the salient wind directions in the tunnel. The result shows that the surface pressure variation is highly dependent upon the approaching wind direction, especially on the top and the side-face of the cube. In addition, the transverse width has a substantial effect on the variation of surface pressure around the bodies, while the longitudinal length has little or no influence.

Keywords: rectangular bodies, wind direction, aspect ratio, surface pressure distribution, wind-tunnel measurement, k-ε model, DES model, CFD

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Authors: Hyunsik Park

Abstract:

As the rate of cerebrovascular disease increases in old populations, the prevalence rate of vascular dementia would be expected. Therefore, authors designed this study to find out the possibility of somatosensory evoked potentials(SSEP) as a parameter for early diagnosis and prognosis prediction of vascular dementia in cortical vascular dementia patients. 21 patients who met the criteria for vascular dementia according to DSM-IV,ICD-10and NINDS-AIREN with the history of recent cognitive impairment, fluctuation progression, and neurologic deficit. We subdivided these patients into two groups; a mild dementia and a severe dementia groups by MMSE and CDR score; and analysed comparison between normal control group and patient control group who have been cerebrovascular attack(CVA) history without dementia by using N20 latency and amplitude of median nerve. In this study, mild dementia group showed significant differences on latency and amplitude with normal control group(p-value<0.05) except patient control group(p-value>0.05). Severe dementia group showed significant differences both normal control group and patient control group.(p-value<0.05, <001). Since no significant difference has founded between mild dementia group and patient control group, SSEP has limitation to use for early diagnosis test. However, the comparison between severe dementia group and others showed significant results which indicate SSEP can predict the prognosis of vascular dementia in cortical vascular dementia patients.

Keywords: SSEP, cortical vascular dementia, N20 latency, N20 amplitude

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Authors: Basavaraj R. Endigeri, Shriharsh Desphande

Abstract:

Optimization and reduction of stress concentration around holes in a uniaxially loaded plate is one of the important design criteria in many of the engineering applications. These stress risers will lead to failure of the component at the region of high stress concentration which has to be avoided by means of providing auxiliary holes on either side of the parent hole. By literature survey it is known that till date, there is no analytical solution documented to reduce the stress concentration by providing auxiliary holes expect for fever geometries. In the present work, plate with a hole subjected to uniaxial load is analyzed with the numerical method to determine the optimum sizes and locations for the auxillary holes for different center hole diameter to plate width ratios. The introduction of auxiliary holes at a optimum location and radii with its effect on stress concentration is also represented graphically. The finite element analysis package ANSYS 8.0 is used to carry out analysis and optimization is performed to determine the location and radii for optimum values of auxiliary holes to reduce stress concentration. All the results for different diameter to plate width ratio are presented graphically. It is found from the work that introduction of auxiliary holes on either side of central circular hole will reduce stress concentration factor by a factor of 19 to 21 percentage.

Keywords: finite element method, optimization, stress concentration factor, auxiliary holes

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Authors: Jitendra Aswani

Abstract:

In the first section of this study, impact of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the synchronization of fourteen Asian Stock Markets (ASM’s) of countries like Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Philippines and Sri Lanka, has been analysed using the network science and its metrics like degree of node, clustering coefficient and network density. Then in the second section of this study by introducing the US stock market in existing network and developing a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) spread of crisis from the US stock market to Asian Stock Markets (ASM) has been explained. Data used for this study is adjusted the closing price of these indices from 6th January, 2000 to 15th September, 2013 which further divided into three sub-periods: Pre, during and post-crisis. Using network analysis, it is found that Asian stock markets become more interdependent during the crisis than pre and post crisis, and also Hong Kong, India, South Korea and Japan are systemic important stock markets in the Asian region. Therefore, failure or shock to any of these systemic important stock markets can cause contagion to another stock market of this region. This study is useful for global investors’ in portfolio management especially during the crisis period and also for policy makers in formulating the financial regulation norms by knowing the connections between the stock markets and how the system of these stock markets changes in crisis period and after that.

Keywords: global financial crisis, Asian stock markets, network science, Kruskal algorithm

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Authors: Nail Nazarov, Vladimir Zobov, Alexandra Vyshtakalyuk, Vyacheslav Semenov, Irina Galyametdinova, Vladimir Reznik

Abstract:

There have been studied effects of xymedon and six new pyrimidine derivatives, that are close and distant analogs of xymedon, on rats' working capacity in the test 'swimming to failure'. It has been shown that a single administration of the studied compounds did not have a statistically significant effect in the test. In the conditions of multiple intraperitoneal administration of the studied pyrimidine derivatives, the compound L-ascorbate, 1-(2-hydroxyethyl)-4.6-dimethyl-1.2-dihydropyrimidine-2-one had the lowest toxicity and the most pronounced actoprotective effect. Introduction in the dose of 20 mg/kg caused a statistically significant increase 440 % in the duration of swimming of rats on the 14th day of the experiment compared with the control group. Multiple administration of the compound in the conditions of physical load did not affect leucopoiesis but stimulates erythropoiesis resulting in an increase in the number of erythrocytes and a hemoglobin level. The substance introduction under mixed exhausting loads prevented such changes of blood biochemical parameters as reduction of glucose, increased of urea and lactic acid levels, what indicates improvement in the animals' tolerability of loads and an anti-catabolic effect of the compound. Absence of hepato and cardiotoxic effects of the substance has been shown. This work was performed with the financial support of Russian Science Foundation (grant № 14-50-00014).

Keywords: actoprotectors, physical working capacity, pyrimidine derivatives, xymedon

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Authors: Halefom Kidane

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This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

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Authors: Sabyasachi Biswas, Indrajit Ghosh

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The random and heterogeneous behavior of vehicles in India puts up a greater challenge for researchers. Stop-and-go modeling at signalized intersections under heterogeneous traffic conditions has remained one of the most sought-after fields. Vehicles are often caught up in the dilemma zone and are unable to take quick decisions whether to stop or cross the intersection. This hampers the traffic movement and may lead to accidents. The purpose of this work is to develop a stop and go prediction model that depicts the drivers’ decision during the yellow time at signalised intersections. To accomplish this, certain traffic parameters were taken into account to develop surrogate model. This research investigated the Stop and Go behavior of the drivers by collecting data from 4-signalized intersections located in two major Indian cities. Model was developed to predict the drivers’ decision making during the yellow phase of the traffic signal. The parameters used for modeling included distance to stop line, time to stop line, speed, and length of the vehicle. A Kriging base surrogate model has been developed to investigate the drivers’ decision-making behavior in amber phase. It is observed that the proposed approach yields a highly accurate result (97.4 percent) by Gaussian function. It was observed that the accuracy for the crossing probability was 95.45, 90.9 and 86.36.11 percent respectively as predicted by the Kriging models with Gaussian, Exponential and Linear functions.

Keywords: decision-making decision, dilemma zone, surrogate model, Kriging

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Authors: Rafael Ricieri, Rogerio Barros

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Objective: This study is to report a case of massive necrotizing enterocolitis in a six-month-old patient, requiring ileostomy and protective jejunostomy as a damage control measure in the first exploratory laparotomy surgery in massive enterocolitis without a previous diagnosis. Methods: This study is a case report of success in making and closing a protective jejunostomy. However, the low number of publications on this staged and risky measure of surgical resolution encouraged the team to study the indication and especially the correct time for closing the patient's protective jejunostomy. The main study instrument will be the six-month-old patient's medical record. Results: Based on the observation of the case described, it was observed that the time for the closure of the described procedure (protective jejunostomy) varies according to the level of compromise of the health status of your patient and of an individual of each person. Early closure, or failure to close, can lead to a favorable problem for the patient since several problems can result from this closure, such as new intestinal perforations, hydroelectrolyte disturbances. Despite the risk of new perforations, we suggest closing the protective jejunostomy around the 14th day of the procedure, thus keeping the patient on broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy and absolute fasting, thus reducing the chances of new intestinal perforations. Associated with the closure of the jejunostomy, a gastric tube for decompression is necessary, and care in an intensive care unit and electrolyte replacement is necessary to maintain the stability of the case.

Keywords: jejunostomy, ileostomy, enterocolitis, pediatric surgery, gastric surgery

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Authors: Jitendra Narayan Panda, Jayashree Bijwe, Raj K. Pandey

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PAEK (Polyaryl ether ketone) being a high-performance polymer, is currently being explored for its tribo-potential by incorporating various fibers, solid lubricants. In this work, influence of amount (30 and 40 %) of short glass fibers (GF) in two composites containing PAEK (60 and 50 %) and synthetic graphite (10 %) on mechanical and tribological behaviour was studied. The composites were developed by injection molding and evaluated in adhesive wear mode (pin on disc configuration) against mild steel disc. The load and speed were selected as variable input parameters while coefficient of friction (µ), specific wear rate (K0) and PVlimit (pressure × velocity) values were selected as output parameters for performance evaluation. Although higher amount of GF lead to better mechanical properties, tribological properties were not in tune to this. Overall, µ and K0 for both composites were in the range 0.04-0.08 and 3-8x 10-16 m3/Nm respectively and decreased with increase in applied PV values till failure was observed. PVlimit was indicated by 112 and 100 MPa m/s. Such high PVlimit values are not reported for any polymer composites running in dry conditions in the literature. The mechanical properties of the C40 composite (40 % GF) proved superior to C30 composite (30 % GF). However, all tribological properties of C40 were inferior to C30. It exhibited higher µ, higher K0 and slightly lower PVlimit value. The higher % fibers proved detrimental for tribo-performance and worn surface analysis by SEM & EDAX was done on the discs & pins to understand wear mechanisms.

Keywords: PAEK composites, pin-on-disk, PV limit, friction

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Authors: Dong Il Shim, Geehong Choi, Donghwi Lee, Namkyu Lee, Hyung Hee Cho

Abstract:

Effective cooling technology is required to secure thermal stability in extreme heat generated systems such as integrated electronic devices and power generated systems. Pool boiling heat transfer is one of the powerful cooling mechanisms using phase change phenomena. Critical heat flux (CHF) and heat transfer coefficient (HTC) are main factors to evaluate the performance of boiling heat transfer. CHF is the limitation of boiling heat transfer before film boiling which occurs thermal failure. Surface wettability is an important surface characteristic of boiling heat transfer. A hydrophilic surface has higher CHF through effective working fluid supply to local hot spots. A hydrophobic surface promotes the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB) to enhance HTC. In this study, superbiphilic surfaces, which is combined with superhydrophillic and superhydrophobic, are applied on boiling experiments to maximize boiling performance. We conducted pool boiling heat transfer using DI water at a saturated temperature and recorded bubble dynamics using a high-speed camera with 2000 fps. As a result, superbiphilic patterned surfaces promote ONB and enhance both CHF and HTC. This study demonstrates the enhanced boiling performance using superbiphilic surfaces by effective nucleation and separation of liquid/vapor pathway. We expect that further enhancement of heat transfer could be achieved in future work using optimized patterned surfaces.

Keywords: boiling heat transfer, wettability, critical heat flux, heat transfer coefficient

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