Search results for: risk modelling

Authors: Varangkana Thaotumpitak, Jarukorn Sripradite, Saharuetai Jeamsripong

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Environmental contamination from wastewater discharges originated from anthropogenic activities introduces the accumulation of enteropathogenic bacteria in aquatic animals, especially in oysters, and in shellfish harvesting areas. The consumption of raw or partially cooked oysters can be a risk for seafood-borne diseases in human. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the presence of Salmonella in oyster meat samples, and environmental factors (ambient air temperature, relative humidity, gust wind speed, average wind speed, tidal condition, precipitation and season) by using the principal component analysis (PCA). One hundred and forty-four oyster meat samples were collected from four oyster harvesting areas in Phang Nga province, Thailand from March 2016 to February 2017. The prevalence of Salmonella of each site was ranged from 25.0-36.11% in oyster meat. The results of PCA showed that ambient air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation were main factors correlated with Salmonella detection in these oysters. Positive relationship was observed between positive Salmonella in the oysters and relative humidity (PC1=0.413) and precipitation (PC1=0.607), while the negative association was found between ambient air temperature (PC1=0.338) and the presence of Salmonella in oyster samples. These results suggested that lower temperature and higher precipitation and higher relative humidity will possibly effect on Salmonella contamination of oyster meat. During the high risk period, harvesting of oysters should be prohibited to reduce pathogenic bacteria contamination and to minimize a hazard of humans from Salmonellosis.

Keywords: oyster, Phang Nga Bay, principal component analysis, Salmonella

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Authors: Amenah Galo, Mohammed Farid, Kareem Alsharkawy, Robert Warner, Karthikeyan Srinivasan, Haitham Khalil, Ruth Waters

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Introduction: The cessation of elective surgery, particularly breast reconstruction, continue to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The restructuring of medical services and staff redeployment severely affected the ability to return to normality for surgical specialties. The aim of this study is to determine the decline in breast reconstruction affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in a tertiary center. Methods: A retrospective review of breast reconstruction cases (autologous, non-autologous) or mastectomies Pre- COVID (March 2019-March 2020) and during COVID (March 2020- March 2021) at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, were collated. Data included patient demographics, BMI, previous and recent reconstruction, length of hospital stay, and mastectomies, including risk-reducing. Results: The number of patients who had breast reconstruction was significantly lower during COVID (n=62) compared to pre-COVID (n=199). The mean age (pre-COVID 51, COVID 59 years), BMI (Pre-COVID and COVID = 27), previous reconstruction (pre-COVID n=101, 51%, COVID n=33, 53%) and length hospital stay was less during COVID (3 days) compared to Pre-COVID (4 days). The proportion of risk-reducing mastectomies and reconstruction during COVID (32%, n=20) were higher than pre-COVID (21%, n=41). A higher proportion rate of autologous reconstruction (DIEP 56, TRAM 17) Pre-COVID compared to COVID (DIEP 22, TRAM 7). Implant reconstructions were higher during COVID (n=19, 31%) than pre-COVID (n=31, 16%). Conclusion: The lack of regular provision for breast reconstruction continues to decline during the pandemic. This will have a tremendous impact on waiting lists without a timeline for reconstruction to offer patients. An international survey highlights the disparities in offering breast reconstruction and strategies to rectify this issue.

Keywords: breast reconstruction, COVID-19 pandemic, mastectomy, autologous, implant

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Authors: Larissa Burruano, Sergey Grabovyj, Irina Nguen

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The study aimed to assess the level of adherence to anti retroviral therapy (ART) and to examine the relationship between adherence and risk behavior factor (drug use) among patients infected with HIV. The patients with newly diagnosed or established HIV infection under follow-up at the Sumskij Regional Centre for AIDS Prevention in Ukraine were eligible for this study. Medical records were used to measure the patient’s adherence to medication. Measurements were obtained at month 6 and at month 12 to calculate the number of medication omission during the past 30 days: (on a 2-point scale – once until three in a month – were considered adherent, three and more in a month – were considered non-adherent). Of the 50 study participants, 27 (54.0%) were men and 23 (46.0%) women. The mean age is 35.2 years (SD= 5.1). A majority of the patients (82.0%) is in the age group of 25-30 years. The main level of adherence was 74.0% and 66.0% at 6 and 12 months, respectively. The main routes of HIV transmission were drug injection among men 12 (44.4%) and sexual contact among women 11 (47.8%). Univariate analyses indicated that patients who had lower level of education were more likely to have been non-adherent at month 6- (X2 =5.1, n=50, p < .05) and at month 12 (X2 = 4.34, n=50, p < .05). Multivariate tests showed that only age (OR= 1.163 [95% CI 0.98–1.370]) was significant independent predictor of treatment adherence, while gender, education, employment status were not predictive for the risk of developing non-compliance. There was not a significant interaction between non-adherence and intravenous drug use. Consistent with these findings, younger people were more likely to have missed a dose of their medication because they had a greater sense of invulnerability than older patients. The study indicates that the socio demographic characteristic should be taken into an account in the future research regarding adherence in the case of HIV infection. If the patient anti retroviral adherence can be improved by qualitatively better medical care in all regions of the Ukraine, behavioral changes in the population can to be expected in the long term.

Keywords: HIV, antiretroviral therapy, adherence, Ukraine, Eastern Europe

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Different transportation modes have key operational advantages and disadvantages, providing a variety of different transport options to users and passengers. This paper reviews key variables for the competition between air transport and other transport modes. The aim of this paper is to review the competition between air transport and other transport modes, providing results in terms of perceived cost for the users, for destinations high competitiveness for all transport modes. The competitor analysis variables include the cost and time outputs for each transport option, highlighting the level of competitiveness on high demanded Origin-Destination corridors. The case study presents the output of a such analysis for the OD corridor in Greece that connects the Capital city (Athens) with the second largest city (Thessaloniki) and the different transport modes have been considered (air, train, road). Conventional wisdom is to present an easy to handle tool for planners, managers and decision makers towards pricing policy effectiveness and demand attractiveness, appropriate to use for other similar cases.

Keywords: competitor analysis, transport economics, transport generalized cost, quantitative modelling

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Authors: Ann P. Daunic, Nancy Corbett

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Background and Significance: Researchers emphasize the role that motivation, self-esteem, and self-regulation play in children’s early adjustment to the school culture, including skills such as identifying their own feelings and understanding the feelings of others. As social-emotional growth, academic learning, and successful integration within culture and society are inextricably connected, the Social-Emotional Learning Foundations (SELF) curriculum was designed to integrate social-emotional learning (SEL) instruction within early literacy instruction (specifically, reading) for Kindergarten and first-grade students at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. Storybook reading is a typically occurring activity in the primary grades; thus SELF provides an intervention that is both theoretically and practically sound. Methodology: The researchers will report on findings from the first two years of a three-year study funded by the US Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences to evaluate the effects of the SELF curriculum versus “business as usual” (BAU). SELF promotes the development of self-regulation by incorporating instructional strategies that support children’s use of SEL related vocabulary, self-talk, and critical thinking. The curriculum consists of a carefully coordinated set of materials and pedagogy designed specifically for primary grade children at early risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. SELF lessons (approximately 50 at each grade level) are organized around 17 SEL topics within five critical competencies. SELF combines whole-group (the first in each topic) and small-group lessons (the 2nd and 3rd in each topic) to maximize opportunities for teacher modeling and language interactions. The researchers hypothesize that SELF offers a feasible and substantial opportunity within the classroom setting to provide a small-group social-emotional learning intervention integrated with K-1 literacy-related instruction. Participating target students (N = 876) were identified by their teachers as potentially at risk for emotional or behavioral issues. These students were selected from 122 Kindergarten and 100 first grade classrooms across diverse school districts in a southern state in the US. To measure the effectiveness of the SELF intervention, the researchers asked teachers to complete assessments related to social-emotional learning and adjustment to the school culture. A social-emotional learning related vocabulary assessment was administered directly to target students receiving small-group instruction. Data were analyzed using a 3-level MANOVA model with full information maximum likelihood to estimate coefficients and test hypotheses. Major Findings: SELF had significant positive effects on vocabulary, knowledge, and skills associated with social-emotional competencies, as evidenced by results from the measures administered. Effect sizes ranged from 0.41 for group (SELF vs. BAU) differences in vocabulary development to 0.68 for group differences in SEL related knowledge. Conclusion: Findings from two years of data collection indicate that SELF improved outcomes related to social-emotional learning and adjustment to the school culture. This study thus supports the integration of SEL with literacy instruction as a feasible and effective strategy to improve outcomes for K-1 students at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties.

Keywords: Socio-cultural context for learning, social-emotional learning, social skills, vocabulary development

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Authors: Wael Bakhit, Salma Bakhit

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This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirical examination of the financial sector was made to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and a look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build-up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been a source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Keywords: Taylor rule, financial imbalances, central banks, econometrics

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Authors: Zainab Alghali Elsaid Muhammed

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Background : IBS is a gastrointestinal disorder characterized by a variety of symptoms that occur concurrently. It is very common and is associated with high levels of psychiatric comorbidities, all of which have a negative impact on the patient's quality of life. Abdominal pain, diarrhea, constipation, excess gas, and bloating are common symptoms of IBS. Objectives : The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence of IBS among medical students and intern doctors in Sudan, as well as the risk factors associated with it. Study design: This cross-sectional study was carried out in Sudan from April to July 2022. All participants completed a six-part online questionnaire. The ROME IV criteria questionnaire was used to make an IBS diagnosis. Participants completed the hospital anxiety and depression questionnaire in order to be diagnosed with anxiety and depression. Results : 600 participants filled out the questionnaire. The overall prevalence of IBS was found to be 42%, with females being the most affected. Intern doctors had higher IBS rates (30.0%) than medical students, but this was not statistically significant. Single status (p =0.079), good GPAs (p =0.00), had significant associations with IBS occurrence. Other significantly associated habits were sleeping less than 8 hours (p =0.013), two cups or less of coffee per day (p = 0.109), No smoking (p =0.001), and No exercise (p =0.00, IBS participants were also found to have a significant relationship with abnormal anxiety (p =0.00) and borderline depression (p=0.0156). Conclusion : The high prevalence of IBS in this study suggests that medical students and interns are unable to recognize their symptoms. The main IBS predictors in this study were suffering from anxiety or depression, having an insufficient income, sleeping less than 8 hours per day, working/ studying more than 8 hours per day, and not performing any type of exercise.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, sudan, HADS, rome IV, medical students

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Authors: Veronika Přivřelová

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Well-designed composite steel and concrete structures highlight the good material properties and lower the deficiencies of steel and concrete, in particular they make use of high tensile strength of steel and high stiffness of concrete. The most common composite steel and concrete structure is a simply supported beam, which concrete slab transferring the slab load to a beam is connected to the steel cross-section. The aim of this paper is to find the most adequate numerical model of a simply supported composite beam with the cross-sectional and material parameters based on the results of a processed parametric study and numerical analysis. The paper also evaluates the suitability of using compact concrete with the lightweight aggregates for composite steel and concrete beams. The most adequate numerical model will be used in the resent future to compare the results of laboratory tests.

Keywords: composite beams, high-performance concrete, high-strength steel, lightweight concrete slab, modeling

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Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Milena Nanova, Radul Shishkov, Martin Georgiev, Damyan Damov

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This research paper presents an in-depth exploration of the use of generative design in urban residential architecture, with a dual focus on aligning aesthetic values with legal and environmental constraints. The study aims to demonstrate how generative design methodologies can innovate residential building designs that are not only legally compliant and environmentally conscious but also aesthetically compelling. At the core of our research is a specially developed generative design framework tailored for urban residential settings. This framework employs computational algorithms to produce diverse design solutions, meticulously balancing aesthetic appeal with practical considerations. By integrating site-specific features, urban legal restrictions, and environmental factors, our approach generates designs that resonate with the unique character of urban landscapes while adhering to regulatory frameworks. The paper explores how modern digital tools, particularly computational design, and algorithmic modelling, can optimize the early stages of residential building design. By creating a basic parametric model of a residential district, the paper investigates how automated design tools can explore multiple design variants based on predefined parameters (e.g., building cost, dimensions, orientation) and constraints. The paper aims to demonstrate how these tools can rapidly generate and refine architectural solutions that meet the required criteria for quality of life, cost efficiency, and functionality. The study utilizes computational design for database processing and algorithmic modelling within the fields of applied geodesy and architecture. It focuses on optimizing the forms of residential development by adjusting specific parameters and constraints. The results of multiple iterations are analysed, refined, and selected based on their alignment with predefined quality and cost criteria. The findings of this research will contribute to a modern, complex approach to residential area design. The paper demonstrates the potential for integrating BIM models into the design process and their application in virtual 3D Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environments. The study also examines the transformation of BIM models into suitable 3D GIS file formats, such as CityGML, to facilitate the visualization and evaluation of urban planning solutions. In conclusion, our research demonstrates that a generative parametric approach based on real geodesic data and collaborative decision-making could be introduced in the early phases of the design process. This gives the designers powerful tools to explore diverse design possibilities, significantly improving the qualities of the investment during its entire lifecycle.

Keywords: architectural design, residential buildings, urban development, geodesic data, generative design, parametric models, workflow optimization

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Authors: Swadha Singh

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International Solar Alliance is the foremost treaty-based global organization concerned with tapping the potential of sun-abundant nations between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn and enables co-operation among them. As a founding member of the International Solar Alliance, India exhibits its positioning as an upcoming leader in clean energy. India has set ambitious goals and targets to expand the share of solar in its energy mix and is playing a proactive role both at the regional and global levels. ISA aims to serve multiple goals- bring about scale commercialization of solar power, boost domestic manufacturing, and leverage solar diplomacy in African countries, amongst others. Against this backdrop, this paper attempts to examine the ways in which ISA as an intergovernmental organization under Indian leadership can leverage the cause of clean energy (solar) diplomacy and effectively shape partnerships and collaborations with other developing countries in terms of sharing solar technology, capacity building, risk mitigation, mobilizing financial investment and providing an aggregate market. A more specific focus of ISA is on the developing countries, which in the absence of a collective, are constrained by technology and capital scarcity, despite being naturally endowed with solar resources. Solar rich but finance-constrained economies face political risk, foreign exchange risk, and off-taker risk. Scholars argue that aligning India’s climate change discourse and growth prospects in its engagements, collaborations, and partnerships at the bilateral, multilateral and regional level can help promote trade, attract investments, and promote resilient energy transition both in India and in partner countries. For developing countries, coming together in an action-oriented way on issues of climate and clean energy is particularly important since it is developing and underdeveloped countries that face multiple and coalescing challenges such as the adverse impact of climate change, uneven and low access to reliable energy, and pressing employment needs. Investing in green recovery is agreed to be an assured way to create resilient value chains, create sustainable livelihoods, and help mitigate climate threats. If India is able to ‘green its growth’ process, it holds the potential to emerge as a climate leader internationally. It can use its experience in the renewable sector to guide other developing countries in balancing multiple similar objectives of development, energy security, and sustainability. The challenges underlying solar expansion in India have lessons to offer other developing countries, giving India an opportunity to assume a leadership role in solar diplomacy and expand its geopolitical influence through inter-governmental organizations such as ISA. It is noted that India has limited capacity to directly provide financial funds and support and is not a leading manufacturer of cheap solar equipment, as does China; however, India can nonetheless leverage its large domestic market to scale up the commercialization of solar power and offer insights and learnings to similarly placed abundant solar countries. The paper examines the potential of and limits placed on India’s solar diplomacy.

Keywords: climate diplomacy, energy security, solar diplomacy, renewable energy

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Authors: Rita Yuniatun, Dewi Fadlilah Firdausi, Anida Hanifah, Putrisuvi Nurjannah Zalqis, Erza Nur Afrilia, Akrima Fajrin Nurimani, Andrew Luis Krishna

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Manganese (Mn) is one of the potential contaminants minerals geothermal water. Preliminary studies conducted in Ketenger village, the nearest village with Baturaden hot spring, showed that the concentration of Mn in water supply has exceeded the reference value. Mineral contamination problem in Ketenger village is not only Mn, but also other potential geothermal minerals, such as chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), sulfide (S2-), nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), and zinc (Zn). It becomes a concern because generally the residents still use ground water as the water source for their daily needs, including drinking and cooking. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the distribution of mineral contamination in drinking water and food and to estimate the health risks possibility from the exposure. Four minerals (Mn, Fe, S2-, and Cr6+) were analyzed in drinking water, carbohydrate sources, vegetables, fishes, and fruits. The test results indicate that Mn concentration in drinking water is 0.35 mg/L, has exceeded the maximum contaminant level (MCL) according to the US EPA (MCL = 0.005 mg/L), whereas other minerals still comply with the standards. In addition, we found that the average of Mn concentration in the carbohydrate sources is quite high (1.87 mg/Kg). Measurement results in Chronic Daily Intake (CDI) and the Risk Quotient (RQ) found that exposure to manganese and other geothermal minerals in drinking water and food are safe from the non-carcinogenic effects in each age group (RQ<1). So, geothermal mineral concentrations in drinking water and food has no effect on non-carcinogenic risk in Ketenger’s residents because of CDI is also influenced by other parameters such as the duration of exposure and the rate of consumption. However, it was found that intake of essential minerals (Mn and Fe) are deficient in every age group. So that, the addition of Mn and Fe intake is recommended.

Keywords: CDI, contaminant, geothermal minerals, manganese, RQ

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Authors: Keiko Tamura, Munenari Inoguchi, Michiyo Tsuji

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When disasters occur, in order to raise the speed of each decision making and response, it is common that delegation of authority is carried out. This tendency is particularly evident when the department or branch of the organization are separated by the physical distance from the main body; however, there are some issues to think about. If the department or branch is too dependent on the head office in the usual condition, they might feel lost in the disaster response operation when they are face to the situation. Avoiding this problem, an organization should decide how to delegate the authority and also who accept the responsibility for what before the disaster. This paper will discuss about the method which presents an approach for executing the delegation of authority process, implementing authorities, management by objectives, and preparedness plans and agreement. The paper will introduce the examples of efforts for the three research centers of Niigata University, Japan to arrange organizations capable of taking necessary actions for disaster response. Each center has a quality all its own. One is the center for carrying out the research in order to conserve the crested ibis (or Toki birds in Japanese), the endangered species. The another is the marine biological laboratory. The third one is very unique because of the old growth forests maintained as the experimental field. Those research centers are in the Sado Island, located off the coast of Niigata Prefecture, is Japan's second largest island after Okinawa and is known for possessing a rich history and culture. It takes 65 minutes jetfoil (high-speed ferry) ride to get to Sado Island from the mainland. The three centers are expected to be easily isolated at the time of a disaster. A sense of urgency encourages 3 centers in the process of organizational restructuring for enhancing resilience. The research team from the risk management headquarters offer those procedures; Step 1: Offer the hazard scenario based on the scientific evidence, Step 2: Design a risk management organization for disaster response function, Step 3: Conduct the participatory approach to make consensus about the overarching objectives, Step 4: Construct the unified operational action plan for 3 centers, Step 5: Simulate how to respond in each phase based on the understanding the various phases of the timeline of a disaster. Step 6: Document results to measure performance and facilitate corrective action. This paper shows the result of verifying the output and effects.

Keywords: delegation of authority, disaster response, risk management, unified command

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Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

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World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

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Authors: Oleg Oborin

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This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

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Authors: Analise Borg, Paul Micallef

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Over the past few years, the online multimedia collection has grown at a fast pace. Several companies showed interest to study the different ways to organize the amount of audio information without the need of human intervention to generate metadata. In the past few years, many applications have emerged on the market which are capable of identifying a piece of music in a short time. Different audio effects and degradation make it much harder to identify the unknown piece. In this paper, an audio fingerprinting system which makes use of a non-parametric based algorithm is presented. Parametric analysis is also performed using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). The feature extraction methods employed are the Mel Spectrum Coefficients and the MPEG-7 basic descriptors. Bin numbers replaced the extracted feature coefficients during the non-parametric modelling. The results show that non-parametric analysis offer potential results as the ones mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: audio fingerprinting, mapping algorithm, Gaussian Mixture Models, MFCC, MPEG-7

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Authors: Jennifer Holbein, Maritza Wiedel

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Background: Aging is associated with an increased risk of falls in older adults, and as a result, falls have become public health crises. However, the incidence of falls can be reduced through healthy aging and the implementation of a regular exercise and strengthening program. Public health and healthcare professionals authorize the use of evidence‐based, exercise‐focused fall interventions, but there are major obstacles to translating and disseminating research findings into healthcare practices. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of an intervention, A Matter of Balance, in terms of demand, acceptability, and implementation into current exercise programs. Subjects: Seventy-five participants from rural communities, above the age of sixty, were randomized to an intervention or attention-control of the standardized senior fitness test. Methods: Subject completes the intervention, which combines two components: (1) motivation and (2) fall-reducing physical activities with protocols derived from baseline strength and balanced assessments. Participants (n=75) took part in the program after completing baseline functional assessments as well as evaluations of their personal knowledge, health outcomes, demand, and implementation interventions. After 8-weeks of the program, participants were invited to complete follow-up assessments with results that were compared to their baseline functional analyses. Out of all the participants in the study who complete the initial assessment, approximately 80% are expected to maintain enrollment in the implemented prescription. Furthermore, those who commit to the program should show mitigation of fall risk upon completion of their final assessment.

Keywords: aging population, exercise, falls, functional assessment, healthy aging

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Authors: Phong Le Ha

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In many cities the entire world, the relationship between cities and rivers is always considered as a fundament of urban history research because of their profound interactions. This kind of relationship makes the river zones become extremely sensitive in many aspects. One of the most important aspect is their roles in the drainage of cities. In this paper we will examine an extraordinary case of Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam and Red river zones. This river has contradictory impacts to this city: It is considered as a source of life of the inhabitants who live along its two banks, however, the risk of inundation caused by the complicated hydrology system of this river is always a real threat to the cities that it flows through. Morphologically, Red river was connected to the inner rivers system that made Hanoi a complete form of a river city. This structure combined with the topography of Hanoi helps this city to assure a stable drainage system in which the river zones in the north of Hanoi play some extreme important roles. Nevertheless, in the late 20 years, Hanoi's strong urbanization and the instability of Red river's complicated hydrology make the very remarkable transformations in the relationship river-city and in the river zones: The connection between the river and the city declines; the system of inner lakes are progressively replaced by habitat land; in the river zones, the infrastructure system can't adapt to the transformations of the new quarters which have the origin of the agricultural villages. These changes bring out many chances for the urban development, but also many risks and problems, particularly in the environment and technical sides. Among these, pluvial and used water evacuation is one of the most severe problems. The disappear of inner-city lakes, the high dike and the topographical changes of Hanoi blow up the risk of inundation of this city. In consequences, the riverine zones, particularly in the north of Hanoi, where the two most important water evacuation rivers of Hanoi meet each other, are burdened with the drainage pressure. The unique water treatment plant in this zone seems to be overcharged in receiving each day about 40000m3 of used water (not include pluvial water). This kind of problem leads also to another risk related to the environmental pollution (water pollution and air pollution). So, in order to better understand the situation and to propose the solutions to resolve the problems, an interdisciplinary research covering many different fields such urban planning, architecture, geography, and especially drainage and environment has been carried out. In general, this paper will analyze an important part of the research : the process of urban transformation of Hanoi (changes in urban morphology, infrastructure system, evolution of the dike system, ...) and the hydrological changes of Red river which cause the drainage and environmental problems. The conclusions of these analyses will be the solid base of the following researches focusing on the solutions of a sustainable development.

Keywords: drainage, environment, Hanoi, infrastructure, red rivers, urbanization

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Authors: Yao Song

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Objectives: We aimed to explore the clinicodemographic characteristics and prognosis of grey zone squamous cell cancer (GZSCC) located in the overlapping or ambiguous area of the oral cavity and oropharynx and to identify valuable factors that would improve its differential diagnosis and prognosis. Methods: Information of GZSCC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was compared to patients with an oral cavity (OCSCC) and oropharyngeal (OPSCC) squamous cell carcinomas with corresponding HPV status, respectively. Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analysis were applied to assess associations between clinical characteristics and overall survival (OS). A predictive model integrating age, gender, marital status, HPV status, and staging variables was conducted to classify GZSCC patients into three risk groups and verified internally by 10-fold cross validation. Results: A total of 3318 GZSCC, 10792 OPSCC, and 6656 OCSCC patients were identified. HPV-positive GZSCC patients had the best 5-year OS as HPV-positive OPSCC (81% vs. 82%). However, the 5-year OS of HPV-negative/unknown GZSCC (43%/42%) was the worst among all groups, indicating that HPV status and the overlapping nature of tumors were valuable prognostic predictors in GZSCC patients. Compared with the strategy of dividing GZSCC into two groups by HPV status, the predictive model integrating more variables could additionally identify a unique high-risk GZSCC group with the lowest OS rate. Conclusions: GZSCC patients had distinct clinical characteristics and prognoses compared with OPSCC and OCSCC; integrating HPV status and other clinical factors could help distinguish GZSCC and predict their prognosis.

Keywords: GZSCC, OCSCC, OPSCC, HPV

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Authors: Jiaqian Yin, Ruoling Chen, David Churchill, Huijuan Zou, Peipei Guo, Chunmei Liang, Xiaoqing Peng, Zhikang Zhang, Weiju Zhou, Yunxia Cao

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Purpose: This study aimed to explore the interaction of male and female age on implantation failure from in vitro fertilisation (IVF)/ intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments in couples following their first cycles using the Anhui Maternal-Child Health Study (AMCHS). Methods: The AMCHS recruited 2042 infertile couples who were physically fit for in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment at the Reproductive Centre of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between May 2017 to April 2021. This prospective cohort study analysed the data from 1910 cohort couples for the current paper data analysis. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the effect of male and female age on implantation failure after controlling for confounding factors. Male age and female age were examined as continuous and categorical (male age: 20-<25, 25-<30, 30-<35, 35-<40, ≥40; female age: 20-<25, 25-<30, 30-<35, 35-<40, ≥40) predictors. Results: Logistic regression indicated that advanced maternal age was associated with increased implantation failure (P<0.001). There was evidence of an interaction between maternal age (30-<35 and ≥ 35) and paternal age (≥35) on implantation failure. (p<0.05). Only when the male was ≥35 years of increased maternal age was associated with the risk of implantation failure. Conclusion: In conclusion, there was an additive effect on implantation failure with advanced parental age. The impact of advanced maternal age was only seen in the older paternal age group. The delay of childbearing in both men and women will be a serious public issue that may contribute to a higher risk of implantation failure in patients needing assisted reproductive technology (ART).

Keywords: parental age, infertility, cohort study, IVF

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Authors: Zhuoqun Sun, Francisco Sierra, A. Booth

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With BIM rapidly implemented in the design and construction stage of a project, researchers begin to focus on improving the operation and maintenance stage with the aid of BIM. Since the increasing amount of electronic equipment installed in the building, building management system becomes mainstream for controlling a building, especially in higher education institutions that can play an important role in terms of reducing carbon emission and improving energy efficiency. Currently, an approach to integrate BIM and BMS to improve HEIs facility management has not been established yet. Thus, this paper aims to analyse the benefits, issues, and trends of BIM and BMS integration and their application in HEIs. A systematic literature review was carried out on SCOPUS by applying the PRISMA methodology. 73 articles have been chosen based on keywords, abstracts, and the full content of the articles. The benefit and existed issues from the articles are analysed. The review shows the need to develop a tool to improve facility management through BIM BMS integration.

Keywords: BIM, BMS, HEIs, review

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Authors: Eric Asare, Jamie Evans, Mark Newton, Emiliano Bilotti

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Two types of filler shapes (sphere and flakes) and three different sizes are employed to study the size effect on PTC. The composite is prepared using a mini-extruder with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as the matrix. A computer modelling is used to fit the experimental results. The percolation threshold decreases with decreasing filler size and this was observed for both the spherical particles as well as the flakes. This was caused by the decrease in interparticle distance with decreasing filler size. The 100 µm particles showed a larger PTC intensity compared to the 5 µm particles for the metal coated glass sphere and flake. The small particles have a large surface area and agglomeration and this makes it difficult for the conductive network to e disturbed. Increasing the filler content decreased the PTC intensity and this is due to an increase in the conductive network within the polymer matrix hence more energy is needed to disrupt the network.

Keywords: positive temperature coefficient (PTC) effect, conductive polymer composite (CPC), electrical conductivity

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Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews

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In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R² = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R² = 0.78, P < 0.0001).

Keywords: debonding, fibre reinforced polymers (FRP), pull-out test, stepwise regression analysis

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Authors: Artur Krukowski, Emmanouela Vogiatzaki

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The article presents results from the AF3 project “Advanced Forest Fire Fighting” focused on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)-based 3D surveillance and 3D area mapping using high-resolution photogrammetric methods from multispectral imaging, also taking advantage of the 3D scanning techniques from the SCAN4RECO project. We also present a proprietary embedded sensor system used for the detection of fire ignitions in the forest using near-infrared based scanner with weight and form factors allowing it to be easily deployed on standard commercial micro-UAVs, such as DJI Inspire or Mavic. Results from real-life pilot trials in Greece, Spain, and Israel demonstrated added-value in the use of UAS for precise and reliable detection of forest fires, as well as high-resolution 3D aerial modeling for accurate quantification of human resources and equipment required for firefighting.

Keywords: forest wildfires, surveillance, fuel volume estimation, firefighting, ignition detectors, 3D modelling, UAV

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Authors: Rıza Gürhan Korkut, Metin Çelik, Süleyman Özkaynak

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The early-stage design and development projects for the freight village initiatives require a comprehensive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data. Considering the literature review on structural and operational management requirements, this study proposed an original taxonomy on criterion structure to assess freight village conceptualization. The potential challenges and uncertainties of the developed taxonomy are extended. Besides requirement analysis, this study is also expected to contribute to forthcoming research on benchmarking of freight villages in different regions. The methodology used in this research is a systematic review on several articles as per their modelling approaches, sustainability, entities and decisions made together with the uncertainties and features of their models taken into consideration. The major findings of the study that are the categories for assessing the projects attributes on their environmental, socio-economical, accessibility and location aspects.

Keywords: logistics centers, freight village, operational management, taxonomy

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Authors: Boularas El Alia, H. Rezk-Allah, S. Chaoui, A. Chama, B. Rezk-Allah

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Aims: To assess the current exposure to the PHA among various workers in the sector of asphalt and road paving. Methods: The assessment of the exposure to PHA has been performed on workers (n=14) belonging to two companies, allocated into several activities such as road paving, manufacturing of coated bituminous warm, manufacturing of asphalt cut-back, manufacturing of emulsion of asphalt. A group of control subjects (n=18) was associated. The internal exposure to PHA was investigated by measurement of the urinary excretion of 2-naphtol, urine metabolite of naphtalene, one of the biomarkers of total PHA exposure. Urine samples were collected from the exposed workers, at the beginning of the week, at the beginning of the work shift (BWBS) and at the end of the work shift, at the end of the week (ESEW). In the control subjects, single samples of urine were collected after the end of the work shift.Every subject was invited to answer a questionnaire for the collection of technical and medical data as well as smoking habits and food intake. The concentration of 2-naphtol in the hydrolysate of urine was determined spectrophotometrically, after its reaction with the Fast Blue BB salt (diazotized 4-benzoylamino-2,5-diethoxyaniline). Results: For all the workers included in the study, the 2-urinary naphtol concentrations were higher than those in the control subjects (Median=9,55 µg/g creatinine) whether it is at (BWBS) (Md=16,2 µg/g creatinine) or at (ESEW) (n=18,Median=32,22 µg/g creatinine). Considerable differences are observed according to the category of job. The concentrations are also higher among smokers. Conclusion:The results show a significant exposure, mainly during manual laying, reveals an important risk particularly for the respiratory system.Considering the current criteria, carcinogenic risk due to the PHA seems not insignificant.

Keywords: PHA, asphalt, assessment, occupational, exposure

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Authors: Yuexin Liu, Gordon B. Mills, Russell R. Broaddus, John N. Weinstein

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The lethality of endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC) is primarily attributable to the high-stage diseases. However, there are no available biomarkers that predict EEC patient staging at the time of diagnosis. We aim to develop a predictive scheme to help in this regards. Using reverse-phase protein array expression profiles for 210 EEC cases from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), we constructed a Protein Scoring of EEC Staging (PSES) scheme for surgical stage prediction. We validated and evaluated its diagnostic potential in an independent cohort of 184 EEC cases obtained at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to examine the association of PSES score with patient outcome, and Ingenuity pathway analysis was used to identify relevant signaling pathways. Two-sided statistical tests were used. PSES robustly distinguished high- from low-stage tumors in the TCGA cohort (area under the ROC curve [AUC]=0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.82) and in the validation cohort (AUC=0.67; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.76). Even among grade 1 or 2 tumors, PSES was significantly higher in high- than in low-stage tumors in both the TCGA (P = 0.005) and MDACC (P = 0.006) cohorts. Patients with positive PSES score had significantly shorter progression-free survival than those with negative PSES in the TCGA (hazard ratio [HR], 2.033; 95% CI, 1.031 to 3.809; P = 0.04) and validation (HR, 3.306; 95% CI, 1.836 to 9.436; P = 0.0007) cohorts. The ErbB signaling pathway was most significantly enriched in the PSES proteins and downregulated in high-stage tumors. PSES may provide clinically useful prediction of high-risk tumors and offer new insights into tumor biology in EEC.

Keywords: endometrial carcinoma, protein, protein scoring of EEC staging (PSES), stage

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Authors: Segen Asayehegn

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Introduction: In Tigray, Ethiopia, next to cervical cancer, breast cancer is one of the most common cancer health problems for women. Objectives: This article is proposed to identify the prospective and potential risk factors affecting the time-to-first-recurrence of breast cancer patients in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: The data were taken from the patient’s medical record that registered from January 2010 to January 2020. The study considered a sample size of 1842 breast cancer patients. Powerful non-parametric and parametric shared frailty survival regression models (FSRM) were applied, and model comparisons were performed. Results: Out of 1842 breast cancer patients, about 1290 (70.02%) recovered/cured the disease. The median cure time from breast cancer is found at 12.8 months. The model comparison suggested that the lognormal parametric shared a frailty survival regression model predicted that treatment, stage of breast cancer, smoking habit, and marital status significantly affects the first recurrence of breast cancer. Conclusion: Factors like treatment, stages of cancer, and marital status were improved while smoking habits worsened the time to cure breast cancer. Recommendation: Thus, the authors recommend reducing breast cancer health problems, the regional health sector facilities need to be improved. More importantly, concerned bodies and medical doctors should emphasize the identified factors during treatment. Furthermore, general awareness programs should be given to the community on the identified factors.

Keywords: acceleration factor, breast cancer, Ethiopia, shared frailty survival models, Tigray

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Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie

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To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.

Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 182