Search results for: macroeconomics models

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Kien Vu, Jien Min Soh, Mohamed Jahangir Abubacker, Piyawut Pattamanon, Soojin Lee, Suvro Banerjee

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Recent advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI), in particular Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise to disrupt multiple industries at scale. However, LLMs also present unique challenges, notably, these so-called "hallucination" which is the generation of outputs that are not grounded in the input data that hinders its adoption into production. Common practice to mitigate hallucination problem is utilizing Retrieval Agmented Generation (RAG) system to ground LLMs'response to ground truth. RAG converts the grounding documents into embeddings, retrieve the relevant parts with vector similarity between user's query and documents, then generates a response that is not only based on its pre-trained knowledge but also on the specific information from the retrieved documents. However, the RAG system is not suitable for tabular data and subsequent data analysis tasks due to multiple reasons such as information loss, data format, and retrieval mechanism. In this study, we have explored a novel methodology that combines planning-and-execution and code generation agents to enhance LLMs' data analysis capabilities. The approach enables LLMs to autonomously dissect a complex analytical task into simpler sub-tasks and requirements, then convert them into executable segments of code. In the final step, it generates the complete response from output of the executed code. When deployed beta version on DataSense, the property insight tool of PropertyGuru, the approach yielded promising results, as it was able to provide market insights and data visualization needs with high accuracy and extensive coverage by abstracting the complexities for real-estate agents and developers from non-programming background. In essence, the methodology not only refines the analytical process but also serves as a strategic tool for real estate professionals, aiding in market understanding and enhancement without the need for programming skills. The implication extends beyond immediate analytics, paving the way for a new era in the real estate industry characterized by efficiency and advanced data utilization.

Keywords: large language model, reasoning, planning and execution, code generation, natural language processing, prompt engineering, data analysis, real estate, data sense, PropertyGuru

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Authors: Yue Huang, Yiheng Feng

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Due to the global pressure on climate and energy, many countries are vigorously promoting electric vehicles and building charging (public) charging facilities. Faced with the supply-demand gap of existing electric vehicle charging stations and unreasonable space usage in China, this paper takes the central city of Nanjing as an example, establishes a site selection model through multivariate data integration, conducts multiple linear regression SPSS analysis, gives quantitative site selection results, and provides optimization models and suggestions for charging station layout planning.

Keywords: electric vehicle, charging station, allocation optimization, urban mobility, urban infrastructure, nanjing

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: S. K. Appiah, E. N. Aidoo, D. Asamoah Owusu, M. W. Nuonabuor

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Urbanization remains one of the unique predominant factors which is linked to the destruction of urban environment and its associated cases of soil contamination by heavy metals through the natural and anthropogenic activities. These activities are important sources of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). Often, these heavy metals lead to increased levels in some areas due to the impact of atmospheric deposition caused by their proximity to industrial plants or the indiscriminately burning of substances. Information gathered on potentially hazardous levels of these heavy metals in soils leads to establish serious health and urban agriculture implications. However, characterization of spatial variations of soil contamination by heavy metals in Ghana is limited. Kumasi is a Metropolitan city in Ghana, West Africa and is challenged with the recent spate of deteriorating soil quality due to rapid economic development and other human activities such as “Galamsey”, illegal mining operations within the metropolis. The paper seeks to use both univariate and multivariate geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils and the potential risk associated with ingestion of sources of soil contamination in the Metropolis. Geostatistical tools have the ability to detect changes in correlation structure and how a good knowledge of the study area can help to explain the different scales of variation detected. To achieve this task, point referenced data on heavy metals measured from topsoil samples in a previous study, were collected at various locations. Linear models of regionalisation and coregionalisation were fitted to all experimental semivariograms to describe the spatial dependence between the topsoil heavy metals at different spatial scales, which led to ordinary kriging and cokriging at unsampled locations and production of risk maps of soil contamination by these heavy metals. Results obtained from both the univariate and multivariate semivariogram models showed strong spatial dependence with range of autocorrelations ranging from 100 to 300 meters. The risk maps produced show strong spatial heterogeneity for almost all the soil heavy metals with extremely risk of contamination found close to areas with commercial and industrial activities. Hence, ongoing pollution interventions should be geared towards these highly risk areas for efficient management of soil contamination to avert further pollution in the metropolis.

Keywords: coregionalization, heavy metals, multivariate geostatistical analysis, soil contamination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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To develop a machine learning model to predict diabetes (DM) prevalence in the U.S. population using demographic characteristics, physical indicators, and lifestyle habits, and to analyze how these factors contribute to the likelihood of diabetes. We analyzed data from 23,546 participants aged 20 and older, who were non-pregnant, from the 2009-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The dataset included key demographic (age, sex, ethnicity), physical (BMI, leg length, total cholesterol [TCHOL], fasting plasma glucose), and lifestyle indicators (smoking habits). A weighted sample was used to account for NHANES survey design features such as stratification and clustering. A classification machine learning model was trained to predict diabetes status. The target variable was binary (diabetes or non-diabetes) based on fasting plasma glucose measurements. The following models were evaluated: Logistic Regression (baseline), Random Forest Classifier, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM). Model performance was assessed using accuracy, F1-score, AUC-ROC, and precision-recall metrics. Feature importance was analyzed using SHAP values to interpret the contributions of variables such as age, BMI, ethnicity, and smoking status. The Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model outperformed other classifiers with an AUC-ROC score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis revealed the following key predictors: Age: The most significant predictor, with diabetes prevalence increasing with age, peaking around the 60s for males and 70s for females. BMI: Higher BMI was strongly associated with a higher risk of diabetes. Ethnicity: Black participants had the highest predicted prevalence of diabetes (14.6%), followed by Mexican-Americans (13.5%) and Whites (10.6%). TCHOL: Diabetics had lower total cholesterol levels, particularly among White participants (mean decline of 23.6 mg/dL). Smoking: Smoking showed a slight increase in diabetes risk among Whites (0.2%) but had a limited effect in other ethnic groups. Using machine learning models, we identified key demographic, physical, and lifestyle predictors of diabetes in the U.S. population. The results confirm that diabetes prevalence varies significantly across age, BMI, and ethnic groups, with lifestyle factors such as smoking contributing differently by ethnicity. These findings provide a basis for more targeted public health interventions and resource allocation for diabetes management.

Keywords: diabetes, NHANES, random forest, gradient boosting machine, support vector machine

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Authors: Arian Ebneyamini, Hoda Azimi, Jules Thibaults, F. Handan Tezel

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In this study, a modification of Hennepe model for pervaporation separation of butanol from aqueous solutions using Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) mixed matrix membranes has been introduced and validated by experimental data. The model was compared to the original Hennepe model and few other models which are applicable for membrane gas separation processes such as Maxwell, Lewis Nielson and Pal. Theoretical modifications for non-ideal interface morphology have been offered to predict the permeability in case of interface void, interface rigidification and pore-blockage. The model was in a good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: butanol, PDMS, modeling, pervaporation, mixed matrix membranes

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Authors: Hung-Chi Chang

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For an extended EPQ model with random yield, the existent study revealed that both the disaggregating and consolidating shipment policies for the imperfect quality items are independent of holding cost, and recommended a model with economic benefit by comparing the least total cost for each of the three models investigated. To better capture the real situation, we generalize the existent study to include different holding costs for perfect and imperfect quality items. Through analysis, we show that the above shipment policies are dependent on holding costs. Furthermore, we derive a simple decision rule solely based on the thresholds of problem parameters to select a superior model. The results are illustrated analytically and numerically.

Keywords: consolidating shipments, disaggregating shipments, EPQ, imperfect quality, inventory

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Authors: Alexis Aldo Mendoza Villarroel, Ademir Clemente Villena Zevallos, Cristian Jose Lopez Del Alamo

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With the advancement of technology it is now possible to scan entire objects and obtain their digital representation by using point clouds or polygon meshes. However, some objects may be broken or have missing parts; thus, several methods focused on this problem have been proposed based on Geometric Deep Learning, such as GCNN, ACNN, PointNet, among others. In this article an approach from a different paradigm is proposed, using metric data structures to index global descriptors in the spectral domain and allow the recovery of a set of similar models in polynomial time; to later use the Iterative Close Point algorithm and recover the parts of the incomplete model using the geometry and topology of the model with less Hausdorff distance.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction method, point cloud completion, shape completion, similarity search

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Authors: Shuo Liu

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In Chinese text classification tasks, redundant words and phrases can interfere with the formation of extracted and analyzed text information, leading to a decrease in the accuracy of the classification model. To reduce irrelevant elements, extract and utilize text content information more efficiently and improve the accuracy of text classification models. In this paper, the text in the corpus is first extracted using the TextRank algorithm for abstraction, the words in the abstract are used as nodes to construct a text graph, and then the graph attention network (GAT) is used to complete the task of classifying the text. Testing on a Chinese dataset from the network, the classification accuracy was improved over the direct method of generating graph structures using text.

Keywords: Chinese natural language processing, text classification, abstract extraction, graph attention network

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Authors: Majid Rezayi, Sh. Shahaboddin, HNM E. Mahmud, A. Yadollah, A. Saeid, A. Yatimah

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In this study, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to obtain the membrane composition model affecting the potential response of our reported polymeric PVC sensor for determining the titanium (III) ions. The performance statistics of the artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models for potential slope prediction of membrane composition of titanium (III) ion selective electrode were compared with ANFIS technique. The results show that the ANFIS model can be used as a practical tool for obtaining the Nerntian slope of the proposed sensor in this study.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference, PVC sensor, titanium (III) ions, Nerntian slope

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Authors: Phillipa Denise Peart

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Black Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) people are more at risk of developing mental health disorders because they are more exposed to unfavorable social, economic, and environmental circumstances. These include housing, education, employment, community development, stigma, and discrimination. However, the majority of BAME mental health intervention studies focus on treatment with therapeutically effective drugs and use basic economic methods to evaluate their effectiveness; as a result, little is invested in the economic assessment of psychosocial interventions in BAME mental health. The UK government’s austerity programme and reduced funds for mental health services, has increased the need for the evaluation and assessment of initiatives to focus on value for money. The No Health without Mental Health policy (2011) provides practice guidance to practitioners, but there is little or no mention of the need to provide mental health initiatives targeted at BAME communities that are effective in terms of their impact and the cost-effectiveness. This, therefore, appears to contradict with and is at odds with the wider political discourse, which suggests there should be an increasing focus on health economic evaluation. As a consequence, it could be argued that whilst such policies provide direction to organisations to provide mental health services to the BAME community, by not requesting effective governance, assurance, and evaluation processes, they are merely paying lip service to address these problems and not helping advance knowledge and practice through evidence-based approaches. As a result, BAME communities suffer due to lack of efficient resources that can aid in the recovery process. This research study explores the mental health initiatives targeted at BAME communities, and analyses the techniques used when examining the cost effectiveness of mental health initiatives for BAME mental health communities. Using critical discourse analysis as an approach and method, mental health services will be selected as case studies, and their evaluations will be examined, alongside the political drivers that frame, shape, and direct their work. In doing so, it will analyse what the mental health policies initiatives are, how the initiatives are directed and demonstrate how economic models of evaluation are used in mental health programmes and how the value for money impacts and outcomes are articulated by mental health programme staff. It is anticipated that this study will further our understanding in order to provide adequate mental health resources and will deliver creative, supportive research to ensure evaluation is effective for the government to provide and maintain high quality and efficient mental health initiatives targeted at BAME communities.

Keywords: black, Asian and ethnic minority, economic models, mental health, health policy

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Authors: Babak Daneshvar Rouyendegh

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The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: Decision-Makers (DMs), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN)

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Authors: Cheng-Chi Yu, Yu-Shiue Wang, Kei-Lin Kuo

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Active Independent Front Steering system is a steering system which can according to vehicle driving situation adjusts the relation of steering angle between inner wheel and outer wheel. In low-speed cornering, AIFS sets the steering angles of inner and outer wheel into Ackerman steering geometry to make vehicle has less cornering radius. Besides, AIFS changes the steering geometry to parallel or even anti-Ackerman steering geometry to keep vehicle stability in high-speed cornering. Therefore, based on the analysis of the vehicle steering behavior from different steering geometries, this study develops a new screw type of active independent front steering system to make vehicles best cornering performance at any speeds. The screw type of active independent front steering system keeps the pinion and separates the rack into main rack and second rack. Two racks connect by a screw. Extra screw rotated motion powered by assistant motor through coupler makes second rack move relative to main rack, which can adjust both steering ratio and steering geometry. First of all, this study distinguishes the steering geometry by using Ackerman percentage and utilizes the software of ADAMS/Car to construct diverse steering geometry models. The different steering geometries are compared at low-speed and high-speed cornering, and then control strategies of the active independent front steering systems could be formulated. Secondly, this study applies closed loop equation to analyze tire steering angles and carries out optimization calculations to make the steering geometry from traditional rack and pinion steering system near to Ackerman steering geometry. Steering characteristics of the optimum steering mechanism and motion characteristics of vehicle installed the steering mechanism are verified by ADAMS/Car models of front suspension and full vehicle respectively. By adding dual auxiliary rack and dual motor to the optimum steering mechanism, the active independent front steering system could be developed to achieve the functions of variable steering ratio and variable steering geometry. At last, this study uses ADAMS/Car and Matlab/Simulink to co-simulate the cornering motion of vehicles confirms the vehicle installed the Active Independent Front Steering (AIFS) system has better handling performance than that with Active Independent Steering (AFS) system or with Electric Power Steering (EPS) system. At low-speed cornering, the vehicles with AIFS system and with AFS system have better maneuverability, less cornering radius, than the traditional vehicle with EPS system because that AIFS and AFS systems both provide function of variable steering ratio. However, there is a slight penalty in the motor(s) power consumption. In addition, because of the capability of variable steering geometry, the vehicle with AIFS system has better high-speed cornering stability, trajectory keeping, and even less motor(s) power consumption than that with EPS system and also with AFS system.

Keywords: active front steering system, active independent front steering system, steering geometry, steering ratio

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Authors: Giuliana Murfet, Heidi Behrens

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Chronic disease is Australia’s biggest health concern and obesity the leading risk factor for many. Obesity and chronic disease have a higher representation in rural Tasmania, where levels of socio-disadvantage are also higher. People living outside major cities have less access to health services and poorer health outcomes. To help primary healthcare professionals manage obesity, the Australian NHMRC evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for management of overweight and obesity in adults were developed. They include recommendations for practice and models for obesity management. To our knowledge there has been no research conducted that investigates translation of these guidelines into practice in rural-regional areas; where implementation can be complicated by limited financial and staffing resources. Also, the systematic review that informed the guidelines revealed a lack of evidence for chronic disease models of obesity care. The aim was to establish and evaluate a multidisciplinary model for obesity management in a group of adult people with type 2 diabetes in a dispersed rural population in Australia. Extensive stakeholder engagement was undertaken to both garner support for an obesity clinic and develop a sustainable model of care. A comprehensive nurse practitioner-led outpatient model for obesity care was designed. Multidisciplinary obesity clinics for adults with type 2 diabetes including a dietitian, psychologist, physiotherapist and nurse practitioner were set up in the north-west of Tasmania at two geographically-rural towns. Implementation was underpinned by the NHMRC guidelines and recommendations focused on: assessment approaches; promotion of health benefits of weight loss; identification of relevant programs for individualising care; medication and bariatric surgery options for obesity management; and, the importance of long-term weight management. A clinical pathway for adult weight management is delivered by the multidisciplinary team with recognition of the impact of and adjustments needed for other comorbidities. The model allowed for intensification of intervention such as bariatric surgery according to recommendations, patient desires and suitability. A randomised controlled trial is ongoing, with the aim to evaluate standard care (diabetes-focused management) compared with an obesity-related approach with additional dietetic, physiotherapy, psychology and lifestyle advice. Key barriers and enablers to guideline implementation were identified that fall under the following themes: 1) health care delivery changes and the project framework development; 2) capacity and team-building; 3) stakeholder engagement; and, 4) the research project and partnerships. Engagement of not only local hospital but also state-wide health executives and surgical services committee were paramount to the success of the project. Staff training and collective development of the framework allowed for shared understanding. Staff capacity was increased with most taking on other activities (e.g., surgery coordination). Barriers were often related to differences of opinions in focus of the project; a desire to remain evidenced based (e.g., exercise prescription) without adjusting the model to allow for consideration of comorbidities. While barriers did exist and challenges overcome; the development of critical partnerships did enable the capacity for a potential model of obesity care for rural regional areas. Importantly, the findings contribute to the evidence base for models of diabetes and obesity care that coordinate limited resources.

Keywords: diabetes, interdisciplinary, model of care, obesity, rural regional

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Authors: Keith Schofield, Leigh Morland

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Storytelling is an established means of leadership and management development and is also considered a form of leadership of self and others in its own right. This study focuses on the utility of storytelling in the development of management narratives in an MBA programme; sources include programme participants as well as international recruiters, whose voices are often only heard in terms of economic contribution and globalisation. For many MBA candidates, the return to study requires the development of a new identity which complements their professional identity; each candidate has their own journey and expectations, the use of story can enable candidates to explore their aspirations and assumptions and give voice to previously unspoken ideas. For international recruitment, the story of market development and change must be captured if MBAs are to remain fit for purpose. If used effectively, story acts as a form of critical reflection that can inform the learning journeys of individuals, emerging identities as well as the ongoing design and development of programmes. The landscape of management education is shifting; the MBA begins to attract a different kind of candidate, some are younger than before, others are seeking validation for their existing work practices, yet more are entrepreneurial and wish to capitalise on an institutional experience to further their career. There is a shift in context, creating uncertainty and ambiguity for programme managers and recruiters, thus requiring institutions to create a new MBA narrative. This study utilises Lego SeriousPlay as the means to engaging programme participants and international agents in telling the story of their MBA. We asked MBA participants to tell the story of their leadership and management aspirations and compare these to stories of their development journeys, allowing for critical reflection of their respective development gaps. We asked international recruiters, who act as university agents and promote courses in the student’s country of origin, to explore their mental models of MBA candidates and their learning agenda. The purpose of this process was to explore the agent’s perception of the MBA programme and to articulate the student journey from a recruitment perspective. The paper’s unique contribution is in combining these stories in order to explore the assumptions that determine programme design. Data drawn from reflective statements together with images of Lego ‘builds’ created the opportunity for reflection between the mental models of these groups. Findings will inform the design of the MBA journey and experience; we review the extent to which the changing identities of learners are congruent with programme design. Data from international recruiters also determines the extent to which marketing and recruitment strategies identify with would be candidates.

Keywords: critical reflection, programme management, recruitment, storytelling

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Authors: Mehdi Janbaz

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The global financial crisis and the credit crunch that followed magnified the importance of credit risk management and its crucial role in the stability of all financial sectors and the whole of the system. Many believe that risks faced by the sovereign sector are highly interconnected with banking risks and most likely to trigger and reinforce each other. This study aims to examine (1) the impact of banking and interbank risk factors on the sovereign credit risk of Eurozone, and (2) how the EU Credit Default Swaps spreads dynamics are affected by the Crude Oil price fluctuations. The hypothesizes are tested by employing fitting risk measures and through a four-staged linear modeling approach. The sovereign senior 5-year Credit Default Swap spreads are used as a core measure of the credit risk. The monthly time-series data of the variables used in the study are gathered from the DataStream database for a period of 2008-2019. First, a linear model test the impact of regional macroeconomic and market-based factors (STOXX, VSTOXX, Oil, Sovereign Debt, and Slope) on the CDS spreads dynamics. Second, the bank-specific factors, including LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3-month LIBOR rate and Euro 3-month overnight index swap rates) and Euribor, are added to the most significant factors of the previous model. Third, the global financial factors including EURO to USD Foreign Exchange Volatility, TED spread (the difference between 3-month T-bill and the 3-month LIBOR rate based in US dollars), and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Crude Oil Volatility Index are added to the major significant factors of the first two models. Finally, a model is generated by a combination of the major factor of each variable set in addition to the crisis dummy. The findings show that (1) the explanatory power of LIBOR-OIS on the sovereign CDS spread of Eurozone is very significant, and (2) there is a meaningful adverse co-movement between the Crude Oil price and CDS price of Eurozone. Surprisingly, adding TED spread (the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in US dollars.) to the analysis and beside the LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3M LIBOR and Euro 3M OIS) in third and fourth models has been increased the predicting power of LIBOR-OIS. Based on the results, LIBOR-OIS, Stoxx, TED spread, Slope, Oil price, OVX, FX volatility, and Euribor are the determinants of CDS spreads dynamics in Eurozone. Moreover, the positive impact of the crisis period on the creditworthiness of the Eurozone is meaningful.

Keywords: CDS, crude oil, interbank risk, LIBOR-OIS, OVX, sovereign credit risk, TED

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Authors: Julio Brégains, Ángel Carro, José-Manuel Andión

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Virtual 3D objects constitute invaluable tools for teaching practical engineering subjects at all -from basic to advanced- educational levels. For instance, they can be equipped with animation or informative labels, manipulated by mouse movements, and even be immersed in a real environment through augmented reality. In this paper, we present the investigation and description of a set of applications prepared for creating, editing, and making use of interactive 3D models to represent electric and electronic devices and systems. Several examples designed with the described tools are exhibited, mainly to show their capabilities as educational technological aids, applicable not only to the field of electricity and electronics but also to a much wider range of technical areas.

Keywords: educational technology, Google model viewer, ICT educational tools, interactive teaching, new tools for teaching

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Authors: Farzad Hosseini Hossein Abadi, Cristina Prieto Sierra, Cesar Álvarez Díaz

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Predicting streamflow accurately in flashy catchments prone to floods is a major research and operational challenge in hydrological modeling. Recent advancements in deep learning, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have shown to be promising in achieving accurate hydrological predictions at daily and hourly time scales. In this work, a multi-timescale LSTM (MTS-LSTM) network was applied to the context of regional hydrological predictions at an hourly time scale in flashy catchments. The case study includes 40 catchments allocated in the Basque Country, north of Spain. We explore the impact of hyperparameters on the performance of streamflow predictions given by regional deep learning models through systematic hyperparameter tuning - where optimal regional values for different catchments are identified. The results show that predictions are highly accurate, with Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) and Kling-Gupta (KGE) metrics values as high as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively. A principal component analysis reveals that a hyperparameter related to the length of the input sequence contributes most significantly to the prediction performance. The findings suggest that input sequence lengths have a crucial impact on the model prediction performance. Moreover, employing catchment-scale analysis reveals distinct sequence lengths for individual basins, highlighting the necessity of customizing this hyperparameter based on each catchment’s characteristics. This aligns with well known “uniqueness of the place” paradigm. In prior research, tuning the length of the input sequence of LSTMs has received limited focus in the field of streamflow prediction. Initially it was set to 365 days to capture a full annual water cycle. Later, performing limited systematic hyper-tuning using grid search, revealed a modification to 270 days. However, despite the significance of this hyperparameter in hydrological predictions, usually studies have overlooked its tuning and fixed it to 365 days. This study, employing a simultaneous systematic hyperparameter tuning approach, emphasizes the critical role of input sequence length as an influential hyperparameter in configuring LSTMs for regional streamflow prediction. Proper tuning of this hyperparameter is essential for achieving accurate hourly predictions using deep learning models.

Keywords: LSTMs, streamflow, hyperparameters, hydrology

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Authors: Hamid Gholami

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During the years, the language teaching methods have been the offshoots of schools of thought in psychology. The methods were mainly influenced by their contemporary psychological approaches, as Audiolingualism was based on behaviorism and Communicative Language Teaching on constructivism. In 1950s, the text books were full of repetition exercises which were encouraged by Behaviorism. In 1980s they got filled with communicative exercises as suggested by constructivism. The trend went on to nowadays that sees no specific method as prevalent since none of the schools of thought seem to be illustrative of the complexity in human being learning. But some changes can be notable; some textbooks are giving more and more space to repetition exercises at least to enhance some aspects of language proficiency, namely collocations, rhythm and intonation, and conversation models. These changes may mark the reemergence of one of the once widely accepted schools of thought in psychology; behaviorism.

Keywords: language teaching methods, psychology, schools of thought, Behaviorism

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Authors: Gram Y. Rivas Sanchez

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The seismic design codes in the world allow the analysis of structures considering an elastic-linear behavior; however, against earthquakes, the structures exhibit non-linear behaviors that induce damage to their elements. For this reason, it is necessary to use non-linear methods to analyze these structures, being the dynamic methods that provide more reliable results but require a lot of computational costs; on the other hand, non-linear static methods do not have this disadvantage and are being used more and more. In the present work, the nonlinear static analysis (pushover) of RC frame buildings of three, five, and seven stories is carried out considering models of concentrated plasticity using plastic hinges; and the seismic performance points are determined using ATC-40, FEMA 356, and FEMA 440 guidelines. Using this last standard, the highest inelastic displacements and basal shears are obtained, providing designs that are more conservative.

Keywords: pushover, nonlinear, RC building, FEMA 440, ATC 40

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Authors: Si Chen, Caroline Wiltshire, Bin Li

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This study statistically models the surface f0 contour and the underlying pitch target of a well-studied third sandhi tone of Mandarin Chinese. Although the growth curve analysis on the surface f0 contours indicates non-neutralization of this sandhi tone (T3) and the base T2, their underlying pitch targets do show neutralization. These results in Mandarin are also consistent with the perception of native speakers, where they cannot distinguish the third T3 from the base T2, compensating contextual variation. It is possible to use the proposed statistical procedure of testing underlying pitch targets to verify tone sandhi processes in other tonal languages.

Keywords: growth curve analysis, Mandarin Chinese, tone sandhi, underlying pitch target

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Authors: Pui-Lai To, Chechen Liao, Tzu-Ling Lin

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Virtual communities have created a range of new social spaces in which to meet and interact with one another. Both as a stand-alone model or as a supplement to sustain competitive advantage for normal business models, building virtual communities has been hailed as one of the major strategic innovations of the new economy. However for a virtual community to evolve, the biggest challenge is how to make members actively give information or provide advice. Even in busy virtual communities, usually, only a small fraction of members post information actively. In order to investigate the determinants of information giving willingness of those contributors who usually actively provide their opinions, we proposed a model to understand the reasons for contribution in communities. The study will definitely serve as a basis for the future growth of information giving in virtual communities.

Keywords: information giving, social identity, trust, virtual community

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Authors: Christopher Deekia Nwimae, Nigel Simms, Liyun Lao

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Erosion in pipe bends caused by particles is a major obstacle in the oil and gas fields and might cause the breakdown of production equipment. This work studied the effects imposed by flow velocity and impact of solid particles diameter in an elbow; erosion rate was verified with experimental data using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. Two-way coupled Euler-Lagrange and discrete phase model was employed to calculate the air/solid particle flow in an elbow. One erosion model and three-particle rebound models were used to predict the erosion rate on the 90° elbows. The generic erosion model was used in the CFD-based erosion model, and after comparing it with experimental data, results showed agreement with the CFD-based predictions as observed.

Keywords: erosion, prediction, elbow, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: B. Güney, Ç. Teke

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In recent years, rapid and correct decision making is crucial for both people and enterprises. However, uncertainty makes decision-making difficult. Fuzzy logic is used for coping with this situation. Thus, fuzzy linear programming models are developed in order to handle uncertainty in objective function and the constraints. In this study, a problem of a factory in food industry is investigated, required data is obtained and the problem is figured out as a fuzzy linear programming model. The model is solved using Zimmerman approach which is one of the approaches for fuzzy linear programming. As a result, the solution gives the amount of production for each product type in order to gain maximum profit.

Keywords: food industry, fuzzy linear programming, fuzzy logic, linear programming

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Authors: H. Benmoussa, A. A. El Kalam, A. Ait Ouahman

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The design and implementation of intrusion detection systems (IDS) remain an important area of research in the security of information systems. Despite the importance and reputation of the current intrusion detection systems, their efficiency and effectiveness remain limited as they should include active defense approach to allow anticipating and predicting intrusions before their occurrence. Consequently, they must be readapted. For this purpose we suggest a new generation of distributed intrusion detection system based on preventive detection approach and using intelligent and mobile agents. Our architecture benefits from mobile agent features and addresses some of the issues with centralized and hierarchical models. Also, it presents advantages in terms of increasing scalability and flexibility.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection System (IDS), preventive detection, mobile agents, distributed architecture

Procedia PDF Downloads 584

Authors: Saahith M. S., Sivakami R.

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In the realm of football analytics, particularly focusing on predicting football player performance, the ability to forecast player success accurately is of paramount importance for teams, managers, and fans. This study introduces an elaborate examination of predicting football player performance through the integration of data visualization methods and machine learning algorithms. The research entails the compilation of an extensive dataset comprising player attributes, conducting data preprocessing, feature selection, model selection, and model training to construct predictive models. The analysis within this study will involve delving into feature significance using methodologies like Select Best and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to pinpoint pertinent attributes for predicting player performance. Various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), will be explored to develop predictive models. The evaluation of each model's performance utilizing metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared will be executed to gauge their efficacy in predicting player performance. Furthermore, this investigation will encompass a top player analysis to recognize the top-performing players based on the anticipated overall performance scores. Nationality analysis will entail scrutinizing the player distribution based on nationality and investigating potential correlations between nationality and player performance. Positional analysis will concentrate on examining the player distribution across various positions and assessing the average performance of players in each position. Age analysis will evaluate the influence of age on player performance and identify any discernible trends or patterns associated with player age groups. The primary objective is to predict a football player's overall performance accurately based on their individual attributes, leveraging data-driven insights to enrich the comprehension of player success on the field. By amalgamating data visualization and machine learning methodologies, the aim is to furnish valuable tools for teams, managers, and fans to effectively analyze and forecast player performance. This research contributes to the progression of sports analytics by showcasing the potential of machine learning in predicting football player performance and offering actionable insights for diverse stakeholders in the football industry.

Keywords: football analytics, player performance prediction, data visualization, machine learning algorithms, random forest, decision tree, linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, model evaluation, top player analysis, nationality analysis, positional analysis

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Authors: J. Berčík, A. Mravcová, A. Rusková, P. Jurčišin, R. Virágh

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The online world is changing every day. With this comes the emergence and development of new business models. One of them is the sale of several types of products in one place. This type of sales in the form of online marketplaces has undergone a positive development in recent years and represents a kind of alternative to brick-and-mortar shopping centres. The main philosophy is to buy several products under one roof. Examples of popular e-commerce marketplaces are Amazon, eBay, and Allegro. Their share of total e-commerce turnover is expected to even double in the coming years. The paper highlights possibilities for testing web applications and online marketplace using emerging methods like stationary eye cameras (eye tracking) and facial analysis (FaceReading).

Keywords: emerging methods, consumer neuroscience, e-commerce, marketplace, user experience, user interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Paolo Grasso, Sai Kalyan Yelike, Federico Benzi, Mathieu Le Cam

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The cabin air quality (CAQ) in commercial aircraft is of prime interest, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Current Environmental Control Systems (ECS) rely on a prescribed fresh airflow per passenger to dilute contaminants. An adaptive ECS strategy is proposed, leveraging air sensing and filtration technologies to ensure a better CAQ. This paper investigates the CAQ level achieved in commercial aircraft’s cabin during various flight scenarios. The modeling and simulation analysis is performed in a Modelica-based environment describing the dynamic behavior of the system. The model includes the following three main systems: cabin, recirculation loop and air-conditioning pack. The cabin model evaluates the thermo-hygrometric conditions and the air quality in the cabin depending on the number of passengers and crew members, the outdoor conditions and the conditions of the air supplied to the cabin. The recirculation loop includes models of the recirculation fan, ordinary and novel filtration technology, mixing chamber and outflow valve. The air-conditioning pack includes models of heat exchangers and turbomachinery needed to condition the hot pressurized air bled from the engine, as well as selected contaminants originated from the outside or bled from the engine. Different ventilation control strategies are modeled and simulated. Currently, a limited understanding of contaminant concentrations in the cabin and the lack of standardized and systematic methods to collect and record data constitute a challenge in establishing a causal relationship between CAQ and passengers' comfort. As a result, contaminants are neither measured nor filtered during flight, and the current sub-optimal way to avoid their accumulation is their dilution with the fresh air flow. However, the use of a prescribed amount of fresh air comes with a cost, making the ECS the most energy-demanding non-propulsive system within an aircraft. In such a context, this study shows that an ECS based on a reduced and adaptive fresh air flow, and relying on air sensing and filtration technologies, provides promising results in terms of CAQ control. The comparative simulation results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive ECS brings substantial improvements to the CAQ in terms of both controlling the asymptotic values of the concentration of the contaminant and in mitigating hazardous scenarios, such as fume events. Original architectures allowing for adaptive control of the inlet air flow rate based on monitored CAQ will change the requirements for filtration systems and redefine the ECS operation.

Keywords: cabin air quality, commercial aircraft, environmental control system, ventilation

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Johannes Günther

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Time Sensitive Networking (TSN), standardized in the IEEE 802.1 standard, has been lent increasing attention in the context of mission critical systems. Such mission critical systems, e.g., in the automotive domain, aviation, industrial, and smart factory domain, are responsible for coordinating complex functionalities in real time. In many of these contexts, a reliable data exchange fulfilling hard time constraints and quality of service (QoS) conditions is of critical importance. TSN standards are able to provide guarantees for deterministic communication behaviour, which is in contrast to common best-effort approaches. Therefore, the superior QoS guarantees of TSN may aid in the development of new technologies, which rely on low latencies and specific bandwidth demands being fulfilled. TSN extends existing Ethernet protocols with numerous standards, providing means for synchronization, management, and overall real-time focussed capabilities. These additional QoS guarantees, as well as management mechanisms, lead to an increased attack surface for potential malicious attackers. As TSN guarantees certain deadlines for priority traffic, an attacker may degrade the QoS by delaying a packet beyond its deadline or even execute a denial of service (DoS) attack if the delays lead to packets being dropped. However, thus far, security concerns have not played a major role in the design of such standards. Thus, while TSN does provide valuable additional characteristics to existing common Ethernet protocols, it leads to new attack vectors on networks and allows for a range of potential attacks. One answer to these security risks is to deploy defense mechanisms according to a moving target defense (MTD) strategy. The core idea relies on the reduction of the attackers' knowledge about the network. Typically, mission-critical systems suffer from an asymmetric disadvantage. DoS or QoS-degradation attacks may be preceded by long periods of reconnaissance, during which the attacker may learn about the network topology, its characteristics, traffic patterns, priorities, bandwidth demands, periodic characteristics on links and switches, and so on. Here, we implemented and tested several MTD-like defense strategies against different attacker models of varying capabilities and budgets, as well as collaborative attacks of multiple attackers within a network, all within the context of TSN networks. We modelled the networks and tested our defense strategies on an OMNET++ testbench, with networks of different sizes and topologies, ranging from a couple dozen hosts and switches to significantly larger set-ups.

Keywords: network security, time sensitive networking, moving target defense, cyber security

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Theofanis Fotis, Nineta Polemi

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The European Union (EU) directive Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act in Article 9 requires that risk management of AI systems includes both technical and human oversight, while according to NIST_AI_RFM (Appendix C) and ENISA AI Framework recommendations, claim that further research is needed to understand the current limitations of social threats and human-AI interaction. AI threats within social contexts significantly affect the security and trustworthiness of the AI systems; they are interrelated and trigger technical threats as well. For example, lack of explainability (e.g. the complexity of models can be challenging for stakeholders to grasp) leads to misunderstandings, biases, and erroneous decisions. Which in turn impact the privacy, security, accountability of the AI systems. Based on the NIST four fundamental criteria for explainability it can also classify the explainability threats into four (4) sub-categories: a) Lack of supporting evidence: AI systems must provide supporting evidence or reasons for all their outputs. b) Lack of Understandability: Explanations offered by systems should be comprehensible to individual users. c) Lack of Accuracy: The provided explanation should accurately represent the system's process of generating outputs. d) Out of scope: The system should only function within its designated conditions or when it possesses sufficient confidence in its outputs. Biases may also stem from historical data reflecting undesired behaviors. When present in the data, biases can permeate the models trained on them, thereby influencing the security and trustworthiness of the of AI systems. Social related AI threats are recognized by various initiatives (e.g., EU Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI), standards (e.g. ISO/IEC TR 24368:2022 on AI ethical concerns, ISO/IEC AWI 42105 on guidance for human oversight of AI systems) and EU legislation (e.g. the General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679, the NIS 2 Directive 2022/2555, the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities 2022/2557, the EU AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act). Measuring social threats, estimating the risks to AI systems associated to these threats and mitigating them is a research challenge. In this paper it will present the efforts of two European Commission Projects (FAITH and THEMIS) from the HorizonEurope programme that analyse the social threats by building cyber-social exercises in order to study human behaviour, traits, cognitive ability, personality, attitudes, interests, and other socio-technical profile characteristics. The research in these projects also include the development of measurements and scales (psychometrics) for human-related vulnerabilities that can be used in estimating more realistically the vulnerability severity, enhancing the CVSS4.0 measurement.

Keywords: social threats, artificial Intelligence, mitigation, social experiment

Procedia PDF Downloads 67