Search results for: China’s 14th five-year plan
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3362

Search results for: China’s 14th five-year plan

662 Challenges and Practical Tips for Advance Care Planning and End-of-Life Communications With Cancer Patients in Global Pandemic

Authors: Poonam Goswami

Abstract:

Background: The diagnosis of a serious illness like cancer can have an impact on a patient’s emotional well-being and may result in psychological symptoms, anxiety, depression, and loss of control. Advance care planning discussions ensure patients’ values and goals of care, including patients’ freedom to choose their place of death, are respected. Unfortunately, these discussions are often delayed and are not initiated early in patients’ cancer trajectory. As a result, patients’ wishes often remains unknown until the last phase of their life. Evidence suggests that many patients inappropriately receive aggressive treatment near the end of life, which does lead to higher resource utilization, decreased quality of life, and increased cost. Additionally, the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged the health care systems worldwide and raised important ethical issues, especially regarding the potential need for rationing health care in the context of scarce resources and crisis capacity. The importance of goal concordant care is now even substantially important and is heightened in the context of this pandemic. Problem: Although there is growing evidence on the effects of the ACP on the completion of advanced directives, improved patient and family concordance for preferences for medical care, and receipt of care, there is still a lack of standardized ACP conversation strategies for patients with cancer. Methods: The Key concepts of ACP include (1) assessing patient and family readiness, (2) identifying a surrogate decision maker ( medical power of attorney), (3) exploring patient and family understanding of the disease and treatment options,(4) discussing the values and goals of care, and options for end-of-life care, (5) documenting patient preferences in the medical record, and (6) revisiting the discussions at every change in the treatment plan and /or change in clinical status, including at every hospitalization. Conclusion/Implication for practice: Advance Care Planning (ACP) and end-of-life (EOL) discussions are important for patients, families, and health care providers. Adopting the verbal and nonverbal communication strategies can help overcome the barriers to effective communication on these difficult discussions. ACP with goals of care discussions should not be delayed until the patient is hospitalized.

Keywords: advance care planning, end of life, cancer, global, pandemic

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661 Examining the Development of Complexity, Accuracy and Fluency in L2 Learners' Writing after L2 Instruction

Authors: Khaled Barkaoui

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Research on second-language (L2) learning tends to focus on comparing students with different levels of proficiency at one point in time. However, to understand L2 development, we need more longitudinal research. In this study, we adopt a longitudinal approach to examine changes in three indicators of L2 ability, complexity, accuracy, and fluency (CAF), as reflected in the writing of L2 learners when writing on different tasks before and after a period L2 instruction. Each of 85 Chinese learners of English at three levels of English language proficiency responded to two writing tasks (independent and integrated) before and after nine months of English-language study in China. Each essay (N= 276) was analyzed in terms of numerous CAF indices using both computer coding and human rating: number of words written, number of errors per 100 words, ratings of error severity, global syntactic complexity (MLS), complexity by coordination (T/S), complexity by subordination (C/T), clausal complexity (MLC), phrasal complexity (NP density), syntactic variety, lexical density, lexical variation, lexical sophistication, and lexical bundles. Results were then compared statistically across tasks, L2 proficiency levels, and time. Overall, task type had significant effects on fluency and some syntactic complexity indices (complexity by coordination, structural variety, clausal complexity, phrase complexity) and lexical density, sophistication, and bundles, but not accuracy. L2 proficiency had significant effects on fluency, accuracy, and lexical variation, but not syntactic complexity. Finally, fluency, frequency of errors, but not accuracy ratings, syntactic complexity indices (clausal complexity, global complexity, complexity by subordination, phrase complexity, structural variety) and lexical complexity (lexical density, variation, and sophistication) exhibited significant changes after instruction, particularly for the independent task. We discuss the findings and their implications for assessment, instruction, and research on CAF in the context of L2 writing.

Keywords: second language writing, Fluency, accuracy, complexity, longitudinal

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660 Analysing the Applicability of a Participatory Approach to Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: Case Study of a Housing Estate Regeneration in London

Authors: Sahar Navabakhsh, Rokia Raslan, Yair Schwartz

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Decision-making on regeneration of housing estates, whether to refurbish or re-build, has been mostly triggered by economic factors. To enable sustainable growth, it is vital that environmental and social impacts of different scenarios are also taken into account. The methodology used to include all the three sustainable development pillars is called Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA), which comprises of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for the assessment of environmental impacts of buildings. Current practice of LCA is regularly conducted post design stage and by sustainability experts. Not only is undertaking an LCA at this stage less effective, but issues such as the limited scope for the definition and assessment of environmental impacts, the implication of changes in the system boundary and the alteration of each of the variable metrics, employment of different Life Cycle Impact Assessment Methods and use of various inventory data for Life Cycle Inventory Analysis can result in considerably contrasting results. Given the niche nature and scarce specialist domain of LCA of buildings, the majority of the stakeholders do not contribute to the generation or interpretation of the impact assessment, and the results can be generated and interpreted subjectively due to the mentioned uncertainties. For an effective and democratic assessment of environmental impacts, different stakeholders, and in particular the community and design team should collaborate in the process of data collection, assessment and analysis. This paper examines and evaluates a participatory approach to LCSA through the analysis of a case study of a housing estate in South West London. The study has been conducted throughout tier-based collaborative methods to collect and share data through surveys and co-design workshops with the community members and the design team as the main stakeholders. The assessment of lifecycle impacts is conducted throughout the process and has influenced the decision-making on the design of the Community Plan. The evaluation concludes better assessment transparency and outcome, alongside other socio-economic benefits of identifying and engaging the most contributive stakeholders in the process of conducting LCSA.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, participatory LCA, life cycle sustainability assessment, participatory processes, decision-making, housing estate regeneration

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659 Community Engagement Strategies to Assist with the Development of an RCT Among People Living with HIV

Authors: Joyce K. Anastasi, Bernadette Capili

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Community Engagement Strategies to Assist with the Development of an RCT Among People Living with HIV Our research team focuses on developing and testing protocols to manage chronic symptoms. For many years, our team designed and implemented symptom management studies for people living with HIV (PLWH). We identify symptoms that are not curative and are not adequately controlled by conventional therapies. As an exemplar, we describe how we successfully engaged PLWH in developing and refining our research feasibility protocol for distal sensory peripheral neuropathy (DSP) associated with HIV. With input from PLWH with DSP, our research received National Institutes of Health (NIH) research funding support. Significance: DSP is one of the most common neurologic complications in HIV. It is estimated that DSP affects 21% to 50% of PLWH. The pathogenesis of DSP in HIV is complex and unclear. Proposed mechanisms include cytokine dysregulation, viral protein-produced neurotoxicity, and mitochondrial dysfunction associated with antiretroviral medications. There are no FDA-approved treatments for DSP in HIV. Purpose: Aims: 1) to explore the impact of DSP on the lives of PLWH, 2) to identify patients’ perspectives on successful treatments for DSP, 3) to identify interventions considered feasible and sensitive to the needs of PLWH with DSP, and 4) to obtain participant input for protocol/study design. Description of Process: We conducted a needs assessment with PLWH with DSP. From our needs assessment, we learned from the patients’ perspective detailed descriptions of their symptoms; physical functioning with DSP; self-care remedies tried, and desired interventions. We also asked about protocol scheduling, instrument clarity, study compensation, study-related burdens, and willingness to participate in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a placebo and a waitlist group. Implications: We incorporated many of the suggestions learned from the need assessment. We developed and completed a feasibility study that provided us with invaluable information that informed subsequent NIH-funded studies. In addition to our extensive clinical and research experience working with PLWH, learning from the patient perspective helped in developing our protocol and promoting a successful plan for recruitment and retention of study participants.

Keywords: clinical trial development, peripheral neuropathy, traditional medicine, HIV, AIDS

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658 Expert Supporting System for Diagnosing Lymphoid Neoplasms Using Probabilistic Decision Tree Algorithm and Immunohistochemistry Profile Database

Authors: Yosep Chong, Yejin Kim, Jingyun Choi, Hwanjo Yu, Eun Jung Lee, Chang Suk Kang

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For the past decades, immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been playing an important role in the diagnosis of human neoplasms, by helping pathologists to make a clearer decision on differential diagnosis, subtyping, personalized treatment plan, and finally prognosis prediction. However, the IHC performed in various tumors of daily practice often shows conflicting and very challenging results to interpret. Even comprehensive diagnosis synthesizing clinical, histologic and immunohistochemical findings can be helpless in some twisted cases. Another important issue is that the IHC data is increasing exponentially and more and more information have to be taken into account. For this reason, we reached an idea to develop an expert supporting system to help pathologists to make a better decision in diagnosing human neoplasms with IHC results. We gave probabilistic decision tree algorithm and tested the algorithm with real case data of lymphoid neoplasms, in which the IHC profile is more important to make a proper diagnosis than other human neoplasms. We designed probabilistic decision tree based on Bayesian theorem, program computational process using MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc., USA) and prepared IHC profile database (about 104 disease category and 88 IHC antibodies) based on WHO classification by reviewing the literature. The initial probability of each neoplasm was set with the epidemiologic data of lymphoid neoplasm in Korea. With the IHC results of 131 patients sequentially selected, top three presumptive diagnoses for each case were made and compared with the original diagnoses. After the review of the data, 124 out of 131 were used for final analysis. As a result, the presumptive diagnoses were concordant with the original diagnoses in 118 cases (93.7%). The major reason of discordant cases was that the similarity of the IHC profile between two or three different neoplasms. The expert supporting system algorithm presented in this study is in its elementary stage and need more optimization using more advanced technology such as deep-learning with data of real cases, especially in differentiating T-cell lymphomas. Although it needs more refinement, it may be used to aid pathological decision making in future. A further application to determine IHC antibodies for a certain subset of differential diagnoses might be possible in near future.

Keywords: database, expert supporting system, immunohistochemistry, probabilistic decision tree

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657 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Recommended for the Conservation of Biodiversity in Western Ghats, India

Authors: Mukesh Lal Das, Muthukumar Muthuchamy

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Climate change Adaptation strategy (AS) is a scientific approach to dealing with the impacts of climate change (CC). Efforts are being made to contain the global emission of greenhouse gas within threshold limits, thereby limiting the rise of global temperature to an optimal level. Global Climate change is a spontaneous process; therefore, reversing the damage would take decades. The climate change adaptation strategy recommended by various stakeholders could be a key to resilience for biodiversity. The Indian Government has constituted the panel to synthesize the climate change action report at the federal and state levels. This review scavenged the published literature on the Western Ghats hotspots. And highlight the adaptation strategy recommended by diverse scientific actors to conserve biodiversity. It also reviews the grey literature adopted by state and federal governments and its effectiveness in mitigating the impacts on biodiversity. We have narrowed the scope of interest to the state action report by 6 Indian states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which host Western Ghats global biodiversity hotspot. Western Ghats(WGs) act as the water tower to the peninsular part of India, and its extensive watershed caters to the water demand of the Industry sector, Agriculture and urban community. Conservation of WGs is the key to the prosperity of Peninsular India. The global scientific community suggested more than 600+ Climate change adaptation strategies for the policymakers, stakeholders, and other state actors to take proactive actions. The preliminary analysis of the federal and the state action plan on climate change in the wake of CC indicate inadequacy in motion as per recommended scientific adaptation strategies. Tamil Nadu and Kerala state constitute nine effective adaptation strategies out of the 40+ recommended for Western Ghats conservation. And other four states' adaptation strategies are deficient, confusing and vague. Western Ghats' resilience capacity will soon or might have reached its threshold, and the frequency of severe drought and flash floods might upsurge manifold in the decades to come. The lack of a clear roadmap to climate change adaptation strategies in the federal and state action stirred us to identify the gap and address it by offering a holistic approach to WGs biodiversity conservation.

Keywords: adaptation strategy, biodiversity conservation, climate change, resilience, Western Ghats

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656 Towards Sustainable African Urban Design Concepts

Authors: Gerald Steyn

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Sub-Saharan Africa is the world's fastest urbanizing region, but approximately 60 to 70 percent of urban African households are poor and living in slums. Although influential global institutions such as the World Bank propagate a new approach to housing and land policies, sustainable African urban concepts have yet to be applied significantly or even convincingly conceptualized. Most African city planners, urban designers, architects, policymakers, and developers have been trained in Western curriculums and continue to practice and plan according to such formal paradigms. Only a few activists promote Post-Colonial Afrocentric urbanism, recognizing the imperative of foregrounding the needs of low-income people. There is a vast body of authoritative literature on analyzing poverty and slums in sub-Saharan Africa and on promoting the need for land and city planning reform. However, of the latter, only a few venture beyond advising and sometimes outlining policy changes. The current study moves beyond a purely theoretical discourse into the realm of practice by designing replicable diagrammatic concepts at different urban scales. The guiding philosophy was that land-use concepts and urban requirements favoring low-income households must be fully integrated into the larger conurbation. Information was derived from intensive research over two decades, involving literature surveys and observations during regular travels into East and Southern Africa. Appropriate existing urban patterns, particularly vernacular and informal, were subsequently analyzed and reimagined as precedents to inform and underpin the represented design concepts. Five interrelated concepts are proposed, ranging in scale from (1) regional to (2) cities and (3) urban villages to (4) neighborhoods and (5) streets. Each concept is described, first in terms of its context and associated issues of concern, followed by a discussion of the patterns available to inform a possible solution, and finally, an explanation and graphic illustration of the proposal. Since each of the five concepts is unfolded from existing informal and vernacular practices studied in situ, the approach is entirely bottom-up. Contrary to an idealized vision of the African city, this study proposes actual concepts for critical assessment by peers in the tradition of architectural research in design.

Keywords: african urban concepts, post-colonial afrocentric urbanism, sub-saharan africa, sustainable african urban design

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655 Improving the Constructability of Highway Design Plans

Authors: R. Edward Minchin Jr.

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The U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Every Day Counts Program (EDC) has resulted in state DOTs putting evermore emphasis on speeding up the delivery of highway and bridge construction projects for use by the driving public. This has resulted in an increase in the use of alternative construction delivery systems such as design-build (D-B), construction manager at-risk (CMR) or construction manager/general contractor (CM/GC), and adding alternative technical concepts (ATCs) to traditional design-bid-build (DBB) contracts. ATCs have exhibited great potential for delivering substantial benefits like cost savings, increased constructability, and quicker project delivery. Previous research has found that knowledge of project constructability was lacking in state Department of Transportation (DOT) planning, programming, and environmental staffs. Many agencies have therefore relied on a set of ‘acceptable’ design solutions over the years of working with their local resource agencies. The result is that the permitting process for several government agencies has become increasingly restrictive with the result that the DOTs and their industry partners lose the ability to innovate after a permit is approved. The intent of this paper is to report on the research team’s progress in this ongoing effort furnish the United States government with a uniform set of guidelines for the application of constructability reviews during all phases of project development and delivery. The research uses surveys and interviews to determine which states have implemented formal programs to ensure that the constructor is furnished with a set of contract documents that affords said constructor with the best possible opportunity to successfully construct the project with the highest quality standards, within the contract duration and without exceeding the construction budget. Once these states are identified, workshops are held all over the nation, resulting in the team learning the best current practices and giving the team the ability to recommend new practices that will improve the process. The plan is for the FHWA to encourage or require state DOTs to use these practices on all federally funded highway and bridge construction projects. The project deliverable is a Guidebook for FHWA to use in disseminating the recommended practices to the states.

Keywords: alternative construction delivery, alternative technical concepts, constructability, construction design plans

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654 Investigating Chinese Students' Perceptions of and Responses to Teacher Feedback: Multiple Case Studies in a UK University

Authors: Fangfei Li

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Studies on teacher feedback have produced a wide range of findings in aspects of characteristics of good feedback, factors influencing the quality of feedback and teachers’ perspectives on teacher feedback. However, perspectives from students on how they perceive and respond to teacher feedback are still under scrutiny. Especially for Chinese overseas students who come from a feedback-sparse educational context in China, they might have different experiences when engaging with teacher feedback in the UK Higher Education. Therefore, the research aims to investigate and shed some new light on how Chinese students engage with teacher feedback in the UK higher education and how teacher feedback could enhance their learning. Research questions of this study are 1) What are Chinese overseas students’ perceptions of teacher feedback in courses of the UK higher education? 2) How do they respond to the teacher feedback they obtained? 3) What factors might influence their’ engagement with teacher feedback? Qualitative case studies of five Chinese postgraduate students in a UK university have been conducted by employing various types of interviews, such as background interviews, scenario-based interviews, stimulated recall interviews and retrospective interviews to address the research inquiries. Data collection lasted seven months, covering two phases – the pre-sessional language programme and the first semester of the Master’s degree programme. Research findings until now indicate that some factors, such as tutors’ handwriting, implicit instruction and value comments, influence students understanding and internalizing tutor feedback. Except for difficulties in understanding tutor feedback, students’ responses to tutor feedback are also influenced by quantity and quality of tutor-student communication, time constraints and trust to tutor feedback, etc. Findings also reveal that tutor feedback is able to improve students’ learning in aspects of promoting reflection on professional knowledge, promoting students’ communication with peers and tutors, increasing problem awareness and writing with the reader in mind. This paper will mainly introduce the research topic, the methodological procedure and research findings gained until now.

Keywords: Chinese students, students’ perceptions, teacher feedback, the UK higher education

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653 Study on Eco-Feedback of Thermal Comfort and Cost Efficiency for Low Energy Residence

Authors: Y. Jin, N. Zhang, X. Luo, W. Zhang

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China with annual increasing 0.5-0.6 billion squares city residence has brought in enormous energy consumption by HVAC facilities and other appliances. In this regard, governments and researchers are encouraging renewable energy like solar energy, geothermal energy using in houses. However, high cost of equipment and low energy conversion result in a very low acceptable to residents. So what’s the equilibrium point of eco-feedback to reach economic benefit and thermal comfort? That is the main question should be answered. In this paper, the objective is an on-site solar PV and heater house, which has been evaluated as a low energy building. Since HVAC system is considered as main energy consumption equipment, the residence with 24-hour monitoring system set to measure temperature, wind velocity and energy in-out value with no HVAC system for one month of summer and winter. Thermal comfort time period will be analyzed and confirmed; then the air-conditioner will be started within thermal discomfort time for the following one summer and winter month. The same data will be recorded to calculate the average energy consumption monthly for a purpose of whole day thermal comfort. Finally, two analysis work will be done: 1) Original building thermal simulation by computer at design stage with actual measured temperature after construction will be contrastive analyzed; 2) The cost of renewable energy facilities and power consumption converted to cost efficient rate to assess the feasibility of renewable energy input for residence. The results of the experiment showed that a certain deviation exists between actual measured data and simulated one for human thermal comfort, especially in summer period. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness is high for a house in targeting city Guilin now with at least 11 years of cost-covering. The conclusion proves that an eco-feedback of a low energy residence is never only consideration of its energy net value, but also the cost efficiency that is the critical factor to push renewable energy acceptable by the public.

Keywords: cost efficiency, eco-feedback, low energy residence, thermal comfort

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652 The Role of the Coach in Elite Equestrian Sport

Authors: Victoria Lewis, L. Dumbell

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The British Equestrian Federation (BEF) aims to develop a holistic coach education and certification program, moving away from traditional autocratic instruction in line with the UK Coaching Framework. This framework is based on generic coaching science research where the coach is cited as a pivotal aspect in developing sporting success. Theoretic knowledge suggests that the role of the sports coach is to develop the physical, tactical, technical and psychological attributes of the athlete and is responsible for the planning, organization and delivery of the training plan and competition schedule. However, to the best of the author’s knowledge, there is no empirical evidence to suggest that is the role required in equestrian sport as the rider takes responsibility for many of these tasks. This research aimed to address the void in current knowledge by gaining an understanding of coaching in equestrian sport in order to improve coaching education system through awareness of the role of the coach. Objectives were to examine the relationship between coach and rider at elite level in equestrian sport providing empirical evidence to suggest that the rider is, in part, ‘self –coached’. To identify the elite equestrian coaches’ role in coaching these ‘self-coached riders. A qualitative method using semi-structured interviews was used. A sample of elite coaches (N=3) and elite riders (N=3) were interviewed. Analysis of the transcripts revealed a total of 534 meaning units that were further grouped into sub-themes and general themes from the coaches’ perspective and the riders’ perspective. This led to the development of a final thematic structure revealing major dimensions that characterized coaching in elite equestrian sport. It was found that the riders at the elite level coach themselves the majority of the time, therefore, can be considered as ‘self-coached’ athletes. However, they do use elite coaches in a mentoring and consultancy role, where they seek guidance from the coach on specific problems, to sound ideas off or to seek reassurance that what they are doing is correct. Findings from this research suggest that the rider-coach relationship at the elite level is a professional one, based on trust and respect, but not a close relationship as seen in other sports. The results show the imperative need for the BEF to educate coaches in coaching the self-coached rider at the elite level, particularly in terms of mentoring skills. As well as incorporating rider education aimed at developing the independent, self-coached riders.

Keywords: coaching, elite sport, equestrian, self coached

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651 Quick Response Codes in Physio: A Simple Click to Long-Term Oxygen Therapy Education

Authors: K. W. Lee, C. M. Choi, H. C. Tsang, W. K. Fong, Y. K. Cheng, L. Y. Chan, C. K. Yuen, P. W. Lau, Y. L. To, K. C. Chow

Abstract:

QR (Quick Response) Code is a matrix barcode. It enables users to open websites, photos and other information with mobile devices by just snapping the code. In usual Long Term Oxygen Therapy arrangement, piles of LTOT related information like leaflets from different oxygen service providers are given to patients to choose an appropriate plan according to their needs. If these printed materials are transformed into electronic format (QR Code), it would be more environmentally-friendly. More importantly, electronic materials including LTOT equipment operation and dyspnoea relieving techniques also empower patients in long-term disease management. The objective to this study is to investigate the effect of QR code in patient education on new LTOT users. This study was carried out in medical wards of North District Hospital. Adult patients and relatives who followed commands, were able to use smartphones with internet services and required LTOT arrangement on hospital discharge were recruited. In LTOT arrangement, apart from the usual LTOT education booklets which included patients’ personal information (e.g. oxygen titration and six-minute walk test results etc.), extra leaflets consisted of 1. QR codes of LTOT plans from different oxygen service providers, 2. Education materials of dyspnoea management and 3. Instructions on LTOT equipment operation were given. Upon completion of LTOT arrangement, a questionnaire about the use of QR code on patient education was filled in by patients or relatives. A total of 10 new LTOT users were recruited from November 2017 to January 2018. Initially, 70% of them did not know anything about the QR code, but all of them understood its operation after a simple demonstration. 70% of them agreed that it was convenient to use (20% strongly agree, 40% agree, 10% somewhat agree). 80% of them agreed that QR code could facilitate the retrieval of more LTOT related information (10% strongly agree, 70% agree) while 90% agreed that we should continue delivering QR code leaflets to new LTOT users in the future (30% strongly agree, 40% agree, 20% somewhat agree). It is proven that QR code is a convenient and environmentally-friendly tool to deliver information. It is also relatively easy to be introduced to new users. It has received welcoming feedbacks from current users.

Keywords: long-term oxygen therapy, physiotherapy, patient education, QR code

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650 Achieving Design-Stage Elemental Cost Planning Accuracy: Case Study of New Zealand

Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum

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649 Triassic Magmatism in Southern Beishan Orogen, Northwest China: Zircon U–Pb Geochronology, Petrogenesis and Tectonic Implications

Authors: Zengda Li

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The tectonic evolution of the Beishan orogen, which forms part of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, remains debated. This study reports the identification of three Triassic granitic plutons representing two distinct stages of magmatism in southern Beishan orogen. Zircon U–Pb dating constrains the early stage as 238–237 Ma and the late stage as 229–227 Ma. The granitoids belong to high-K calc-alkaline and shoshonitic series and exhibit alkalic-calcic and calc-alkalic features, and are weakly peraluminous rocks. Most of these granitoids are highly fractionated I-type and A-type granites. They have relatively high Isr values (0.7049–0.7086) and weak negative εNd(t) values of −1.5 to −2.1, with young Nd model ages of 1.04–0.91 Ga, indicating a crustal contribution. They also show markedly positive zircon εHf(t) values (+3.4 to +11.8) and two-stage Hf model ages of 1.06–0.69 Ga, indicating a mixture of mantle and crustal components. The lithospheric mantle beneath this region incorporating older subducted materials was metasomatized by fluids or melts. Partial melting of the metasomatized lithospheric mantle resulted in underplated magmas, which provided the heat and material input to generate the granitoids. The Middle Triassic granitic plutons show moderate negative Eu anomalies, enrichment of LILEs and depletion in Nb, Ta, and Ti suggesting partial melting of crustal components in response to the underplated mantle-derived magmas, probably linked to lithospheric delamination and asthenospheric upwelling. The Late Triassic granitic plutons show characteristics of post-orogenic granite with strong negative anomalies of Eu, Ba, Nb, Sr, P, and Ti, indicating fractional crystallization and crustal contamination during the emplacement process.

Keywords: Triassic, magmatism, geochronology, petrogenesis, Beishan orogen

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648 Exploring Exposed Political Economy in Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts in Bangladesh

Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate related disasters such as flood and cyclone. Exploring from the semi-structured in-depth interviews of 38 stakeholders and literature review, this study examined the public spending distribution process in DRR. This paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy-enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts of Department of Disaster Management (DDM) such as distribution of flood centres, cyclone centres and 40 days employment generation programs. Enclosure refers to when DRR projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when DRR projects limit affected people’s access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of DRR projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when DRR projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In line with United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Hyogo and Sendai Frameworks, in the case of Bangladesh, DRR policies implemented under the country’s national five-year plan, disaster-related acts and rules. These policies and practices have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of DRR exist at both the national and local scales. DRR related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, DRR related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of DRR need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, disaster risk reduction, fund distribution, political economy

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647 An Evaluation of the Lae City Road Network Improvement Project

Authors: Murray Matarab Konzang

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Lae Port Development Project, Four Lane Highway and other development in the extraction industry which have direct road link to Lae City are predicted to have significant impact on its road network system. This paper evaluates Lae roads improvement program with forecast on planning, economic and the installation of bypasses to ease congestion, effective and convenient transport service for bulk goods and reduce travel time. Land-use transportation study and plans for local area traffic management scheme will be considered. City roads are faced with increased number of traffic and some inadequate road pavement width, poor transport plans, and facilities to meet this transportation demand. Lae also has drainage system which might not hold a 100 year flood. Proper evaluation, plan, design and intersection analysis is needed to evaluate road network system thus recommend improvement and estimate future growth. Repetitive and cyclic loading by heavy commercial vehicles with different axle configurations apply on the flexible pavement which weakens and tear the pavement surface thus small cracks occur. Rain water seeps through and overtime it creates potholes. Effective planning starts from experimental research and appropriate design standards to enable firm embankment, proper drains and quality pavement material. This paper will address traffic problems as well as road pavement, capacities of intersections, and pedestrian flow during peak hours. The outcome of this research will be to identify heavily trafficked road sections and recommend treatments to reduce traffic congestions, road classification, and proposal for bypass routes and improvement. First part of this study will describe transport or traffic related problems within the city. Second part would be to identify challenges imposed by traffic and road related problems and thirdly to recommend solutions after the analyzing traffic data that will indicate current capacities of road intersections and finally recommended treatment for improvement and future growth.

Keywords: Lae, road network, highway, vehicle traffic, planning

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646 The Flood Disaster Management of Communities in Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand

Authors: Eakarat Boonreang, Anothai Harasarn

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The objectives of this study are to investigate the flood disaster management capacity of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, and to recommend the sustainable flood management approaches of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. The selected population consisted of the community leaders and committees, the executives of local administrative organizations, and the head of Ubon Ratchathani provincial office of disaster prevention and mitigation. The data was collected by in-depth interview, focus group, and observation. The data was analyzed and classified in order to determine the communities’ capacity in flood disaster management. The results revealed that communities’ capacity were as follows, before flood disaster, the community leaders held a meeting with the community committees in order to plan disaster response and determined evacuation routes, and the villagers moved their belongings to higher places and prepared vehicles for evacuation. During flood disaster, the communities arranged motorboats for transportation and villagers evacuated to a temporary evacuation center. Moreover, the communities asked for survival bags, motorboats, emergency toilets, and drinking water from the local administrative organizations and the 22nd Military Circle. After flood disaster, the villagers cleaned and fixed their houses and also collaborated in cleaning the temple, school, and other places in the community. The recommendation approaches for sustainable flood disaster management consisted of structural measures, such as the establishment of reservoirs and building higher houses, and non-structural measures such as raising awareness and fostering self-reliance, establishing disaster management plans, rehearsal of disaster response procedures every year, and transferring disaster knowledge among younger generations. Moreover, local administrative organizations should formulate strategic plans that focus on disaster management capacity building at the community level, particularly regarding non-structural measures. Ubon Ratchathani provincial offices of disaster prevention and mitigation should continually monitor and evaluate the outcomes of community based disaster risk management program, including allocating more flood disaster management-related resources among local administrative organizations and communities.

Keywords: capacity building, community based disaster risk management, flood disaster management, Thailand

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645 Identifying the Challenges and Opportunities of Using Lesson Study in English Language Teaching Through the Lenses of In-Service Ecuadorian EFL Teachers

Authors: Cherres Sara, Cajas Diego

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This paper explores how EFL teachers understand the process of Lesson Study in Ecuadorian schools and the challenges and opportunities that it brings to the improvement of their teaching practice. Using a narrative research methodology, this study presents the results of the application of the four steps of Lesson Study carried out by seven teachers in four different schools located in the Southern part of Ecuador during four months. Before starting the implementation of the lesson study, 30 teachers were trained on this model. This training was opened to EFL teachers working in public and private schools without any charge. The criteria to select these teachers were first, to be minimum a one-year in-service teacher, second, to have a b2 level of English, and third, to be able to commit to follow the course guidelines. After the course, seven teachers decided to continue with the implementation of the Lesson Study in their respective institutions. During the implementation of the Lesson Study, data was collected through observations, in-depth interviews and teachers’ planning meetings; and analyzed using a thematic analysis. The results of this study are presented using the lenses of seven EFL teachers that explained the challenges and opportunities that the implementation of Lesson Study conveyed. The challenges identified were the limited capacity of reflection and recognition of the activities that required improvement after the class, limited capacity to provide truthful peer feedback, teachers wrong notions about their performance in their classes, difficulties to follow a collaborative lesson plan; and, the disconnection between class activities and the class content. The opportunities identified were teachers’ predisposition to collaborate, teachers’ disposition to attend professional development courses, their commitment to work extra hours in planning meetings, their openness and their desired to be observed in their classes; and, their willingness to share class materials and knowledge. On the other hand, the results show that there is a disconnection between teachers’ knowledge of ELT and its proper application in class (from theory to practice). There are also, rigid institutional conceptions of teaching that do not allow teaching innovations. The authors concluded that there is a disconnection between teachers’ knowledge of ELT and its proper application in class (from theory to practice). There are also, rigid institutional conceptions of teaching that do not allow teaching innovations for example: excessive institutional paperwork and activities that are not connected to the development of students’ competences.

Keywords: ELT, lesson study, teachers’ professional development, teachers’ collaboration

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644 In Vitro Propagation of Aloe vera and Aloe littoralis Plants: Gamma Radiation, Biochemical and Genetic Changes

Authors: Z. Nourmohammadi, F. Farahani, M. Shaker

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Aloe is an important commercial crop available in a wide range of species and varieties in international markets. The applications of this plant have been recorded in the ancient cultures of India, Egypt, Greece, Rome and China. Aloe has been used for centuries and is currently being actively studied for medicinal purposes. Aloe is propagated through lateral buds, which is slow, very expensive and low income practice. Nowadays, it has been cultured by in vitro propagation for rapid multiplication of plants, genetic improvement of crops, obtaining disease-free clones and for progressive valuable germplasm. The present study focused on the influence of different phytohormones on rapid in vitro propagation of Aloe plants. We also investigated the effect of gamma radiation on biochemical characters as well as genetic changes. Shoot tip of 2-3 cm were collected from offshoot of Aloe barbadensis and Aloe littoralis, and were inoculated with MS medium containing various concentrations of BA (0.5, 1, 2 mg/l), IAA (0.5, 1 mg/l). The best treatment for a highest shoot number and bud proliferation was MS medium containing 2 mg/l BAP and 0.5 mg/l IAA in A. barbadensis and A. littoralis. Maximum percentage of proliferated shoot buds (90% and 95%) from a single explant were obtained in MS medium after 4-5 weeks of the second and the first subcultures, respectively. Different genome sizes were also indicated among treatments and subcultures. The mixoploids identified in flow cytometery histograms in different treatments. The effect of gamma radiation on A. littoralis showed that by increasing the dose of gamma radiation, amounts of chlorophyll A, B, carotenoids, total protein content and superoxide dismutase were significantly increased compared to control plants. Genetic variation analysis also revealed significant genetic differences between control and gamma radiation treated regenerated plants by AMOVA test. Higher genetic heterozygocity was observed in radiation treated plants. Our findings may provide useful method for improving of Aloe plant proliferation with increasing of useful material such as antioxidant enzymes.

Keywords: aloe, antioxidant enzyme, micropropagation, gamma radiation, genetic variation

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643 University Clusters Using ICT for Teaching and Learning

Authors: M. Roberts Masillamani

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There is a phenomenal difference, as regard to the teaching methodology adopted at the urban and the rural area colleges. However, bright and talented student may be from rural back ground even. But there is huge dearth of the digitization in the rural areas and lesser developed countries. Today’s students need new skills to compete and successful in the future. Education should be combination of practical, intellectual, and social skills. What does this mean for rural classrooms and how can it be achieved. Rural colleges are not able to hire the best resources, since the best teacher’s aim is to move towards the city. If city is provided everywhere, then there will be no rural area. This is possible by forming university clusters (UC). The University cluster is a group of renowned and accredited universities coming together to bridge this dearth. The UC will deliver the live lectures and allow the students’ from remote areas to actively participate in the classroom. This paper tries to present a plan of action of providing a better live classroom teaching and learning system from the city to the rural and the lesser developed countries. This paper titled “University Clusters using ICT for teaching and learning” provides a true concept of opening live digital classroom windows for rural colleges, where resources are not available, thus reducing the digital divide. This is different from pod casting a lecture or distance learning and eLearning. The live lecture can be streamed through digital equipment to another classroom. The rural students can collaborate with their peers and critiques, be assessed, collect information, acquire different techniques in assessment and learning process. This system will benefit rural students and teachers and develop socio economic status. This will also will increase the degree of confidence of the Rural students and teachers. Thus bringing about the concept of ‘Train the Trainee’ in reality. An educational university cloud for each cluster will be built remote infrastructure facilities (RIF) for the above program. The users may be informed, about the available lecture schedules, through the RIF service. RIF with an educational cloud can be set by the universities under one cluster. This paper talks a little more about University clusters and the methodology to be adopted as well as some extended features like, tutorial classes, library grids, remote laboratory login, research and development.

Keywords: lesser developed countries, digital divide, digital learning, education, e-learning, ICT, library grids, live classroom windows, RIF, rural, university clusters and urban

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642 How Childhood Trauma Changes the Recovery Models

Authors: John Michael Weber

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The following research results spanned six months and 175 people addicted to some form of substance, from alcohol to heroin. One question was asked, and the answers were amazing and consistent. The following work is the detailed results of this writer’s answer to his own question and the 175 that followed. A constant pattern took shape throughout the bio-psycho-social assessments, these addicts had “first memories,” the memories were vivid and took place between the ages of three to six years old, to a person those first memories were traumatic. This writer’s personal search into his childhood was not to find an excuse for the way he became, but to explain the reason for becoming an addict. To treat addiction, these memories that have caused Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), must be recognized as the catalyst that sparked a predisposition. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), integrated with treatment specifically focused on PTSD, gives the addict a better chance at recovery sans relapse. This paper seeks to give the findings of first memories of the addicts assessed and provide the best treatment plan for such an addict, considering, the childhood trauma in congruence with treatment of the Substance Use Disorder (SUD). The question posed was concerning what their first life memory wa It is the hope of this author to take the knowledge that trauma is one of the main catalysts for addiction, will allow therapists to provide better treatment and reduce relapse from abstinence from drugs and alcohol. This research led this author to believe that if treatment of childhood trauma is not a priority, the twelve steps of Alcoholics Anonymous, specifically steps 4 and 5, will not be thoroughly addressed and odds for relapse increase. With this knowledge, parents can be educated on childhood trauma and the effect it has on their children. Parents could be mindful of the fact that the things they perceive as traumatic, do not match what a child, in the developmental years, absorbs as traumatic. It is this author’s belief that what has become the status quo in treatment facilities has not been working for a long time. It is for that reason this author believes things need to change. Relapse has been woven into the fabric of standard operating procedure and that, in this authors view, is not necessary. Childhood Trauma is not being addressed early in recovery and that creates an environment of inevitable relapse. This paper will explore how to break away from the status -quo and rethink the current “evidencebased treatments.” To begin breaking away from status-quo, this ends the Abstract, with hopes an interest has been peaked to read on.

Keywords: childood, trauma, treatment, addiction, change

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641 The Effects of Virtual Reality Technology in Maternity Delivery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Nuo Xu, Sijing Chen

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Background: Childbirth is considered a critical traumatic event throughout our lives, positively or negatively impacting the mother's physiology, psychology, and even the whole family. Adverse birth experiences, such as labor pain, anxiety, and fear can negatively impact the mother. Studies had shown that the immersive nature of VR can distract attention from pain and increase focus on interventions for pain relief. However, the existing studies that applied VR to maternal delivery were still in their infancy and showed disparate results, and the small sample size is not representative, so this review analyzed the effects of VR in labor, such as on maternal pain and anxiety, with a view to providing a basis for future applications. Search strategy: We searched Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wan-Fang database from the building to November 17, 2021. Selection Criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that intervened the pregnant women aged 18-35 years with gestational >34 weeks and without complications with VR technology were contained within this review. Data Collection and Analysis: Two researchers completed the study selection, data extraction, and assessment of study quality. For quantitative data we used MD or SMD, and RR (risk ratio) for qualitative data. Random-effects model and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used. Main Results: 12 studies were included. Using VR could relieve pain during labor (MD=-1.81, 95% CI (-2.04, -1.57), P< 0.00001) and active period (SMD=-0.41, 95% CI (-0.68, -0.14), P= 0.003), reduce anxiety (SMD=-1.39, 95% CI (-1.99, -0.78), P< 0.00001) and improve satisfaction (RR = 1.32; 95% CI (1.10, 1.59); P = 0.003), but the effect on the duration of first (SMD=-1.12, 95% CI (-2.38, 0.13), P=0.08) and second (SMD=-0.22, 95% CI (-0.67, 0.24), P=0.35) stage of labor was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Compared with conventional care, VR technology can relieve labor pain and anxiety and improve satisfaction. However, extensive experimental validation is still needed.

Keywords: virtual reality, delivery, labor pain, anxiety, meta-analysis, systematic review

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640 Autistic Traits and Multisensory Integration–Using a Size-Weight Illusion Paradigm

Authors: Man Wai Lei, Charles Mark Zaroff

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Objective: A majority of studies suggest that people with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) have multisensory integration deficits. However, normal and even supranormal multisensory integration abilities have also been reported. Additionally, little of this work has been undertaken utilizing a dimensional conceptualization of ASD; i.e., a broader autism phenotype. Utilizing methodology that controls for common potential confounds, the current study aimed to examine if deficits in multisensory integration are associated with ASD traits in a non-clinical population. The contribution of affective versus non-affective components of sensory hypersensitivity to multisensory integration was also examined. Methods: Participants were 147 undergraduate university students in Macau, a Special Administrative Region of China, of Chinese ethnicity, aged 16 to 21 (Mean age = 19.13; SD = 1.07). Participants completed the Autism-Spectrum Quotient, the Sensory Perception Quotient, and the Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile, in order to measure ASD traits, non-affective, and affective aspects of sensory/perceptual hypersensitivity, respectively. In order to explore multisensory integration across visual and haptic domains, participants were asked to judge which one of two equally weighted, but different sized cylinders was heavier, as a means of detecting the presence of the size-weight illusion (SWI). Results: ASD trait level was significantly and negatively correlated with susceptibility to the SWI (p < 0.05); this correlation was not associated with either accuracy in weight discrimination or gender. Examining the top decile of the non-normally distributed SWI scores revealed a significant negative association with sensation avoiding, but not other aspects of effective or non-effective sensory hypersensitivity. Conclusion and Implications: Within the normal population, a greater degree of ASD traits is associated with a lower likelihood of multisensory integration; echoing was often found in individuals with a clinical diagnosis of ASD, and providing further evidence for the dimensional nature of this disorder. This tendency appears to be associated with dysphoric emotional reactions to sensory input.

Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder, dimensional, multisensory integration, size-weight illusion

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639 Walls against Legal Identity: A Qualitative Study on Children of Refugees without Birth Registration in Malaysia

Authors: Rodziana M. Razali, Tamara J. Duraisingham

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Malaysia is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol despite receiving the largest share of refugee inflows in Southeast Asia aside from Thailand. In Peninsular Malaysia, the majority of refugees and asylum seekers are from Myanmar, with Rohingya refugees recording the highest number compared to all other ethnicities. In the eastern state of Sabah, the presence of refugees who have long established themselves in the state is connected to those who escaped military persecution in southern Philippines in the 1970’s and 1980’s. A combination of legal and non-legal factors has created and sustained an adverse atmosphere of deprivation of legal identity for children of migrants including refugees born in Malaysia. This paper aims to qualitatively analyse the barriers to birth registration as the cornerstone of every person’s legal identity for children of refugees born in this country, together with the associated human rights implications. Data obtained through semi-structured interviews with refugees in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah and Rohingya refugees in Peninsular Malaysia shall be studied alongside secondary sources. Results show that births out of medical facilities, suspension of birth records, illiteracy, lack of awareness on the importance and procedures of birth registration, inability to meet documentary requirements, as well as fear of immigration enforcement, are the key factors hindering birth registration. These challenges exist against the backdrop of restrictive integration policy to avoid destabilising demographic and racial balance, political sentiment stirring xenophobic prejudices, as well as other economic and national security considerations. With no proof of their legal identity, the affected children grow up in a legal limbo, facing multiple human rights violations across generations. This research concludes that the country’s framework and practice concerning birth registration is in need of serious reform and improvement to reflect equality and universality of access to its birth registration system. Such would contribute significantly towards meeting its commitments to the post-2015 sustainable development agenda that pledges to 'Leave no one behind', as well as its recently announced National Human Rights Action Plan.

Keywords: birth registration, children, Malaysia, refugees

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638 Effects of Macroprudential Policies on BankLending and Risks

Authors: Stefanie Behncke

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This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

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637 Understanding Complexity at Pre-Construction Stage in Project Planning of Construction Projects

Authors: Mehran Barani Shikhrobat, Roger Flanagan

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The construction planning and scheduling based on using the current tools and techniques is resulted deterministic in nature (Gantt chart, CPM) or applying a very little probability of completion (PERT) for each task. However, every project embodies assumptions and influences and should start with a complete set of clearly defined goals and constraints that remain constant throughout the duration of the project. Construction planners continue to apply the traditional methods and tools of “hard” project management that were developed for “ideal projects,” neglecting the potential influence of complexity on the design and construction process. The aim of this research is to investigate the emergence and growth of complexity in project planning and to provide a model to consider the influence of complexity on the total project duration at the post-contract award pre-construction stage of a project. The literature review showed that complexity originates from different sources of environment, technical, and workflow interactions. They can be divided into two categories of complexity factors, first, project tasks, and second, project organisation management. Project tasks may originate from performance, lack of resources, or environmental changes for a specific task. Complexity factors that relate to organisation and management refer to workflow and interdependence of different parts. The literature review highlighted the ineffectiveness of traditional tools and techniques in planning for complexity. However, this research focus on understanding the fundamental causes of the complexity of construction projects were investigated through a questionnaire with industry experts. The results were used to develop a model that considers the core complexity factors and their interactions. System dynamics were used to investigate the model to consider the influence of complexity on project planning. Feedback from experts revealed 20 major complexity factors that impact project planning. The factors are divided into five categories known as core complexity factors. To understand the weight of each factor in comparison, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis method is used. The comparison showed that externalities are ranked as the biggest influence across the complexity factors. The research underlines that there are many internal and external factors that impact project activities and the project overall. This research shows the importance of considering the influence of complexity on the project master plan undertaken at the post-contract award pre-construction phase of a project.

Keywords: project planning, project complexity measurement, planning uncertainty management, project risk management, strategic project scheduling

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636 A History of Taiwan’s Secret Nuclear Program

Authors: Hsiao-ting Lin

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This paper analyzes the history of Taiwan’s secret program to develop its nuclear weapons during the Cold War. In July 1971, US President Richard Nixon shocked the world when he announced that his national security adviser Henry Kissinger had made a secret trip to China and that he himself had accepted an invitation to travel to Beijing. This huge breakthrough in the US-PRC relationship was followed by Taipei’s loss of political legitimacy and international credibility as a result of its UN debacle in the fall that year. Confronted with the Nixon White House’s opening to the PRC, leaders in Taiwan felt being betrayed and abandoned, and they were obliged to take countermeasures for the sake of national interest and regime survival. Taipei’s endeavor to create an effective nuclear program, including the possible development of nuclear weapons capabilities, fully demonstrates the government’s resolution to pursue its own national policy, even if such a policy was guaranteed to undermine its relations with the United States. With hindsight, Taiwan’s attempt to develop its own nuclear weapons did not succeed in sabotaging the warming of US-PRC relations. Worse, it was forced to come to a full stop when, in early 1988, the US government pressured Taipei to close related facilities and programs on the island. However, Taiwan’s abortive attempt to develop its nuclear capability did influence Washington’s and Beijing’s handling of their new relationship. There did develop recognition of a common American and PRC interest in avoiding a nuclearized Taiwan. From this perspective, Beijing’s interests would best be served by allowing the island to remain under loose and relatively benign American influence. As for the top leaders on Taiwan, such a policy choice demonstrated how they perceived the shifting dynamics of international politics in the 1960s and 1970s and how they struggled to break free and pursue their own independent national policy within the rigid framework of the US-Taiwan alliance during the Cold War.

Keywords: taiwan, richard nixon, nuclear program, chiang Kai-shek, chiang ching-kuo

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635 A Life History of a Female Counselor Participated in Sewol Ferry Disaster Counseling Korea: Based on Qualitative Analysis of Mandelbaum's Life History

Authors: Donghun Lee, Jiyoung Shin, Youjin Kim, Jin Joo Kim

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The sinking of Sewol ferry occurred in Korea on the morning of 16 April 2014 while carrying 476 people. In all, 304 passengers, mostly secondary school students from Danwon High School in Ansan City died in the disaster. The sinking of Sewol ferry has resulted in widespread social and political turmoil within South Korea. Many criticize the actions of the captain and crews of the ferry as well as the ferry operator and the regulators who oversaw its operations. However, huge criticism has been directed at the South Korean government for its national disaster response system. This disaster has made Korean government build up a new disaster management and psychological support system. The purpose of this study was to understand developmental and change process of a female counselor in her late fifties participated in Sewol ferry disaster counseling for a year. She has participated in providing as a counselor counseling and psychological support for the victims' families of Sewol ferry disaster, additionally as a director of community youth counseling center operated by local government by establishing governmental psychological supports plan for recovering collective trauma in the community, through which she have gotten self-reflection of whole her life. For in-depth interview data analysis, Mandelbaum’s three conceptual frameworks were employed; dimensions, turnings, and adaptation. The result of the study indicates extracted categories of life dimension, turning point and adaptation. The details of these categories are ‘having a self-image in youth’, ‘marriage in fairy-tale’, ‘unexpected death of husband’, ‘taking a step forward from darkness’, the way of counselor’, nice grown child’, ‘Sewol ferry disaster’ in life dimension, ‘death in front of life’, ‘milestone in life, counseling’ in turning points, ‘before Sewol ferry disaster’, ‘after Sewol ferry disaster’ in adaptation. Life history methods revealed the counselor’s internal developmental process by analyzing what Sewol ferry disaster influenced on an individual life, especially a counselor's one, what changes she went through, and how she adapted herself to that. Based on the results, discussions and suggestions are provided.

Keywords: development and change, disaster counseling, identity of female counselor, Mandelbaum’s life history, Sewol ferry

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634 Heavy Oil Recovery with Chemical Viscosity-Reduction: An Innovative Low-Carbon and Low-Cost Technology

Authors: Lin Meng, Xi Lu, Haibo Wang, Yong Song, Lili Cao, Wenfang Song, Yong Hu

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China has abundant heavy oil resources, and thermal recovery is the main recovery method for heavy oil reservoirs. However, high energy consumption, high carbon emission and high production costs make heavy oil thermal recovery unsustainable. It is urgent to explore a replacement for developing technology. A low Carbon and cost technology of heavy oil recovery, chemical viscosity-reduction in layer (CVRL), is developed by the petroleum exploration and development research institute of Sinopec via investigated mechanisms, synthesized products, and improved oil production technologies, as follows: (1) Proposed a cascade viscous mechanism of heavy oil. Asphaltene and resin grow from free molecules to associative structures further to bulk aggregations by π - π stacking and hydrogen bonding, which causes the high viscosity of heavy oil. (2) Aimed at breaking the π - π stacking and hydrogen bond of heavy oil, the copolymer of N-(3,4-dihydroxyphenethyl) acryl amide and 2-Acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid was synthesized as a viscosity reducer. It achieves a viscosity reduction rate of>80% without shearing for heavy oil (viscosity < 50000 mPa‧s), of which fluidity is evidently improved in the layer. (3) Synthesized hydroxymethyl acrylamide-maleic acid-decanol ternary copolymer self-assembly plugging agent. The particle size is 0.1 μm-2 mm adjustable, and the volume is 10-500 times controllable, which can achieve the efficient transportation of viscosity reducer to enriched oil areas. CVRL has applied 400 wells until now, increasing oil production by 470000 tons, saving 81000 tons of standard coal, reducing CO2 emissions by 174000 tons, and reducing production costs by 60%. It promotes the transformation of heavy oil towards low energy consumption, low carbon emissions, and low-cost development.

Keywords: heavy oil, chemical viscosity-reduction, low carbon, viscosity reducer, plugging agent

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633 Evaluation of Reservoir Quality in Cretaceous Sandstone Complex, Western Flank of Anambra Basin, Southern Nigeria

Authors: Bayole Omoniyi

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This study demonstrates the value of outcrops as analogues for evaluating reservoir quality of sandbody in a typical high-sinuosity fluvial system. The study utilized data acquired from selected outcrops in the Campanian-Maastrichtian siliciclastic succession of the western flank of Anambra Basin, southern Nigeria. Textural properties derived from outcrop samples were correlated and compared with porosity and permeability using established standard charts. Porosity was estimated from thin sections of selected samples to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. Following facies classification, 14 distinct facies were grouped into three facies associations (FA1-FA3) and were subsequently modeled as discrete properties in a block-centered Cartesian grid on a scale that captures geometry of principal sandbodies. Porosity and permeability estimated from charts were populated in the grid using comparable geostatistical techniques that reflect their spatial distribution. The resultant models were conditioned to facies property to honour available data. The results indicate a strong control of geometrical parameters on facies distribution, lateral continuity and connectivity with resultant effect on porosity and permeability distribution. Sand-prone FA1 and FA2 display reservoir quality that varies internally from channel axis to margin in each succession. Furthermore, isolated stack pattern of sandbodies reduces static connectivity and thus, increases risk of poor communication between reservoir-quality sandbodies. FA3 is non-reservoir because it is mud-prone. In conclusion, the risk of poor communication between sandbodies may be effectively accentuated in reservoirs that have similar architecture because of thick lateral accretion deposits, usually mudstone, that tend to disconnect good-quality point-bar sandbodies. In such reservoirs, mudstone may act as a barrier to impede flow vertically from one sandbody to another and laterally at the margins of each channel-fill succession in the system. The development plan, therefore, must be designed to effectively mitigate these risks and the risk of stratigraphic compartmentalization for maximum hydrocarbon recovery.

Keywords: analogues, architecture, connectivity, fluvial

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