Search results for: scenario modelling

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: Bruno Vicente, Sandra Rafael, Vera Rodrigues, Sandra Sorte, Sara Silva, Ana Isabel Miranda, Carlos Borrego

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Wind comfort for pedestrians is an important condition in urban areas. In Portugal, a country with 900 km of coastline, the wind direction are predominantly from Nor-Northwest with an average speed of 2.3 m·s -1 (at 2 m height). As a result, a set of city authorities have been requesting studies of pedestrian wind comfort for new urban areas/buildings, as well as to mitigate wind discomfort issues related to existing structures. This work covers the efficiency evaluation of a set of measures to reduce the wind speed in an outdoor auditorium (open space) located in a coastal Portuguese urban area. These measures include the construction of barriers, placed at upstream and downstream of the auditorium, and the planting of trees, placed upstream of the auditorium. The auditorium is constructed in the form of a porch, aligned with North direction, driving the wind flow within the auditorium, promoting channelling effects and increasing its speed, causing discomfort in the users of this structure. To perform the wind comfort assessment, two approaches were used: i) a set of experiments using the wind tunnel (physical approach), with a representative mock-up of the study area; ii) application of the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model VADIS (numerical approach). Both approaches were used to simulate the baseline scenario and the scenarios considering a set of measures. The physical approach was conducted through a quantitative method, using hot-wire anemometer, and through a qualitative analysis (visualizations), using the laser technology and a fog machine. Both numerical and physical approaches were performed for three different velocities (2, 4 and 6 m·s-1 ) and two different directions (NorNorthwest and South), corresponding to the prevailing wind speed and direction of the study area. The numerical results show an effective reduction (with a maximum value of 80%) of the wind speed inside the auditorium, through the application of the proposed measures. A wind speed reduction in a range of 20% to 40% was obtained around the audience area, for a wind direction from Nor-Northwest. For southern winds, in the audience zone, the wind speed was reduced from 60% to 80%. Despite of that, for southern winds, the design of the barriers generated additional hot spots (high wind speed), namely, in the entrance to the auditorium. Thus, a changing in the location of the entrance would minimize these effects. The results obtained in the wind tunnel compared well with the numerical data, also revealing the high efficiency of the purposed measures (for both wind directions).

Keywords: urban microclimate, pedestrian comfort, numerical modelling, wind tunnel experiments

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Authors: Iva Dvornik, Sandro Božić, Žana Božić Brkić

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System-dynamic simulating modelling is one of the most appropriate and successful scientific methods of the complex, non-linear, natural, technical and organizational systems. In the recent practice its methodology proved to be efficient in solving the problems of control, behavior, sensitivity and flexibility of the system dynamics behavior having a high degree of complexity, all these by computing simulation i.e. “under laboratory conditions” what means without any danger for observed realities. This essay deals with the research of the gas turbine dynamic process as well as the operating pump units and transformation of gas energy into hydraulic energy has been simulated. In addition, system mathematical model has been also researched (gas turbine- centrifugal pumps – pipeline pressure system – storage vessel).

Keywords: system dynamics, modelling, centrifugal pump, turbine, gases, continuous and discrete simulation, heuristic optimisation

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Authors: Guillaume Craveur

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The evaluation of the passenger exchange time is necessary for railway operators in order to optimize and dimension rail traffic. Several influential parameters are identified and studied. Each parameter leads to a modeling completed with the buildingEXODUS software. The objective is the modelling of passenger exchanges measured by passenger counting. Population size is dimensioned using passenger counting files which are a report of the train service and contain following useful informations: number of passengers who get on and leave the train, exchange time. These information are collected by sensors placed at the top of each train door. With passenger counting files it is possible to know how many people are engaged in the exchange and how long is the exchange, but it is not possible to know passenger flow of the door. All the information about observed exchanges are thus not available. For this reason and in order to minimize inaccuracies, only short exchanges (less than 30 seconds) with a maximum of people are performed.

Keywords: passengers exchange, numerical tools, rolling stock, platforms

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Authors: Rajeshkumar Mahendrabhai Patel, Narendrakumar D. Vasava

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It is seen that higher education in India requires a high degree of attention for the quality. The Government of India has been putting its efforts to improvise the quality of higher education through different means such as need based changes in the policy of higher education, accreditation of the institutions of higher education and many others. The Social Work education in India started way back in Tata School of Social Sciences in the year 1936. Gradually the need for social work education was felt, and different institution started imparting social work education in different regions. Due to the poor educational policy of Gujarat state (The Concept of Self-Financed Education) different Universities initiated the MSW program on a self-financed basis. The present scenario of the Social work Education in Gujarat faces ample challenges and problems which need to be addressed consciously. The present paper will try to examine and analyze the challenges and problems such as curriculum, staffing, quality of teaching, the pattern of education etc. The probable responses to this scenario are also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: social work education, challenges, problems, responses, self-financed education in Gujarat

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Authors: Christopher Baiyegunhi, Oswald Gwavava

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The location/source of the Beattie magnetic anomaly (BMA) and interconnectivity of geologic structures at depth have been a topic of investigation for over 30 years. Up to now, no relationship between geological structures (interconnectivity of dolerite intrusions) at depth has been established. Therefore, the environmental impact of fracking the Karoo for shale gas could not be assessed despite the fact that dolerite dykes are groundwater localizers in the Karoo. In this paper, we shed more light to the unanswered questions concerning the possible location of the source of the BMA, the connectivity of geologic structures like dolerite dykes and sills at depth and this relationship needs to be established before the tectonic evolution of the Karoo basin can be fully understood and related to fracking of the Karoo for shale gas. The result of the magnetic investigation and modelling of four gravity profiles that crosses the BMA in the study area reveals that the anomaly, which is part of the Beattie magnetic anomaly tends to divide into two anomalies and continue to trend in an NE-SW direction, the dominant gravity signatures is of long wavelength that is due to a deep source/interface inland and shallows towards the coast, the average depth to the top of the shallow and deep magnetic sources was estimated to be approximately 0.6 km and 15 km, respectively. The BMA become stronger with depth which could be an indication that the source(s) is deep possibly a buried body in the basement. The bean-shaped anomaly also behaves in a similar manner like the BMA thus it could possibly share the same source(s) with the BMA.

Keywords: Beattie magnetic anomaly, magnetic sources, modelling, Karoo Basin

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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Authors: Oluwatosin Adewale

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The sustainability of built heritage has become a relevant issue in recent years due to the social and economic values associated with these buildings. Heritage buildings provide a means for human perception of culture and represent a legacy of long-existing history; they define the local character of the social world and provide a vital connection to the past with their associated aesthetical and communal benefits. The identified values of heritage buildings have increased the importance of conservation and the lifecycle management of these buildings. The recent developments of digital design technology in engineering and the built environment have led to the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) by the Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations (AECO) industry. BIM provides a platform for the lifecycle management of a construction project through effective collaboration among stakeholders and the analysis of a digital information model. This growth in digital design technology has also made its way into the field of architectural heritage management in the form of Historic Building Information Modelling (HBIM). A reverse engineering process for digital documentation of heritage assets that draws upon similar information management processes as the BIM process. However, despite the several scientific and technical contributions made to the development of the HBIM process, it doesn't remain easy to integrate at the most practical level of heritage asset management. The main objective identified under the scope of the study is to review the limitations and challenges faced by heritage management professionals in adopting an HBIM-based asset management procedure for historic building projects. This paper uses an exploratory study in the form of semi-structured interviews to investigate the research problem. A purposive sample of heritage industry experts and professionals were selected to take part in a semi-structured interview to appraise some of the limitations and challenges they have faced with the integration of HBIM into their project workflows. The findings from this study will present the challenges and limitations faced in applying and integrating the HBIM concept for the management of historic buildings.

Keywords: building information modelling, built heritage, heritage asset management, historic building information modelling, lifecycle management

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Authors: Andra Blumberga, Armands Gravelsins, Haralds Vigants, Dagnija Blumberga

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The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse development perspectives for wood pellet production. To reach the goal, a system dynamics model of energy wood supplies, processing, and consumption is built. Production capacity, energy consumption, changes in energy and technology efficiency, required labour source, prices of wood, energy and labour are taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out and indicate that the model constitutes the dynamic hypothesis. It is found that the more is invested into pellets production, the higher the specific profit per production unit compared to wood logs and wood chips. As a result, wood chips production is decreasing dramatically and is replaced by wood pellets. The limiting factor for pellet industry growth is availability of wood sources. This is governed by felling limit set by the government based on sustainable forestry principles.

Keywords: bioenergy, biotechonomy, system dynamics modelling, wood pellets

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Authors: Joao Fialho

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The mathematical modelling of idiopathic scoliosis has been studied throughout the years. The models presented on those papers are based on the orthotic stabilization of the idiopathic scoliosis, which are based on a transversal force being applied to the human spine on a continuous form. When considering the ATT (Antalgic-Trak Technology) device, the existent models cannot be used, as the type of forces applied are no longer transversal nor applied in a continuous manner. In this device, vertical traction is applied. In this study we propose to model the idiopathic scoliosis, using the ATT (Antalgic-Trak Technology) device, and with the parameters obtained from the mathematical modeling, set up a case-by-case individualized therapy plan, for each patient.

Keywords: idiopathic scoliosis, mathematical modelling, human spine, Antalgic-Trak technology

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Authors: Salif Koné

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We analyze hydrometric data at the Koulikoro station on the Niger River; this basin drains 120600 km2 and covers three countries in West Africa, Guinea, Mali, and Ivory Coast. Two subsequent decadal cycles are highlighted (1925-1936 and 1929-1939) instead of the presumed single decadal one from literature. Moreover, the observed hydrometric data shows a multidecadal 40-year period that is confirmed when graphing a spatial coefficient of variation of runoff over decades (starting at 1901-1910). Spatial runoff data are produced on 48 grids (0.5 degree by 0.5 degree) and through semi-distributed versions of both SimulHyd model and GR2M model - variants of a French Hydrologic model – standing for Genie Rural of 2 parameters at monthly time step. Both extremal decades in terms of runoff coefficient of variation are confronted: 1951-1960 has minimal coefficient of variation, and 1981-1990 shows the maximal value of it during the three months of high-water level (August, September, and October). The mapping of the relative variation of these two decadal situations allows hypothesizing as following: the scale of variation between both extremal situations could serve to fix boundary conditions for further simulations using data from climate scenario.

Keywords: internal cycles, hydrometric data, niger river, gr2m and simulhyd framework, runoff coefficient of variation

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Authors: Umut Tac, Leyla Tavacioglu, Pelin Bolat

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Human factor has been one of the elements that cause vulnerabilities which can be resulted with accidents in maritime transportation. When the roots of human factor based accidents are analyzed, gaps in performing cognitive abilities (reaction time, attention, memory…) are faced as the main reasons for the vulnerabilities in complex environment of maritime systems. Thus cognitive processes in maritime systems have arisen important subject that should be investigated comprehensively. At this point, neurocognitive tests such as reaction time analysis tests have been used as coherent tools that enable us to make valid assessments for cognitive status. In this respect, the aim of this study is to evaluate the reaction time (response time or latency) of seafarers due to their occupational experience and age. For this study, reaction time for different maneuverers has been taken while the participants were performing a sea voyage through a simulator which was run up with a certain scenario. After collecting the data for reaction time, a statistical analyze has been done to understand the relation between occupational experience and cognitive abilities.

Keywords: cognitive abilities, human factor, neurocognitive test battery, reaction time

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Authors: Jinghua Zhang

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Shaft-tunnel junction is a typical case of the structural nonuniformity in underground structures. The shaft and the tunnel possess greatly different structural features. Even under uniform excitations, they tend to behave discrepantly. Studies on shaft-tunnel junctions are mainly performed numerically. Shaking table tests are also conducted. Although many numerical and experimental data are obtained, an analytical solution still has great merits of gaining more insights into the shaft-tunnel problem. This paper will try to remedy the situation. Since the seismic responses of shaft-tunnel junctions are very related to directions of the excitations, they are studied in two scenarios: the longitudinal-excitation scenario and the transverse-excitation scenario. The former scenario will be addressed in this paper. Given that responses of the tunnel are highly dependent on the shaft, the analytical solutions would be developed firstly for the vertical shaft. Then, the seismic responses of the tunnel would be discussed. Since vertical shafts bear a resemblance to rigid caissons, the solution proposed in this paper is derived by introducing terms of shaft-tunnel and soil-tunnel interactions into equations originally developed for rigid caissons. The validity of the solution is examined by a validation model computed by finite element method. The mutual influence between the shaft and the tunnel is introduced. The soil-structure interactions are discussed parametrically based on the proposed equations. The shaft-tunnel relative displacement and the soil-tunnel relative stiffness are found to be the most important parameters affecting the magnitudes and distributions of the internal forces of the tunnel. A hinge-joint at the shaft-tunnel junction could significantly reduce the degree of stress concentration compared with a rigid joint.

Keywords: analytical solution, longitudinal excitation, numerical validation , shaft-tunnel junction

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Authors: Avi Harel

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Most accidents are commonly attributed in hindsight to human errors, yet most methodologies for safety focus on technical issues. According to the Black Swan theory, this paradox is due to insufficient data about the ways systems fail. The article presents a study of the sources of errors, and proposes a methodology for utility-oriented design, comprising methods for coping with each of the sources identified. Accident analysis indicates that errors typically result from difficulties of operating in exceptional conditions. Therefore, following STAMP, the focus should be on preventing exceptions. Exception analysis indicates that typically they involve an improper account of the operational scenario, due to deficiencies in the system integration. The methodology proposes a model, which is a formal definition of the system operation, as well as principles and guidelines for safety-oriented system integration. The article calls to develop and integrate tools for recording and analysis of the system activity during the operation, required to implement validate the model.

Keywords: accidents, complexity, errors, exceptions, interaction, modeling, resilience, risks

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Authors: Benjamin Mauck, Kevin Winter

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The city of Cape Town in South Africa, has shown consistent economic and population growth in the last few decades and that growth is expected to continue to increase into the future. These projected economic and population growth rates are set to place additional pressure on the city’s already strained water supply system. Thus, given Cape Town’s water scarcity, increasing water demands and stressed water supply system, coupled with global awareness around the issues of sustainable development, environmental protection and climate change, alternative water management strategies are required to ensure water is sustainably managed. Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) is an approach to sustainable urban water management that attempts to assign a resource value to all forms of water in the urban context, viz. stormwater, wastewater, potable water and groundwater. WSUD employs a wide range of strategies to improve the sustainable management of urban water such as the water reuse, developing alternative available supply sources, sustainable stormwater management and enhancing the aesthetic and recreational value of urban water. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is one WSUD strategy which has proven to be a successful reuse strategy in a number of places around the world. MAR is the process where an aquifer is intentionally or artificially recharged, which provides a valuable means of water storage while enhancing the aquifers supply potential. This paper investigates the feasibility of implementing MAR in the sandy, unconfined Cape Flats Aquifer (CFA) in Cape Town. The main objective of the study is to assess if MAR is a viable strategy for stormwater management on the Cape Flats, aiding the prevention or mitigation of the seasonal flooding that occurs on the Cape Flats, while also improving the supply potential of the aquifer. This involves the infiltration of stormwater into the CFA during the wet winter months and in turn, abstracting from the CFA during the dry summer months for fit-for-purpose uses in order to optimise the recharge and storage capacity of the CFA. The fully-integrated MIKE SHE model is used in this study to simulate both surface water and groundwater hydrology. This modelling approach enables the testing of various potential recharge and abstraction scenarios required for implementation of MAR on the Cape Flats. Further MIKE SHE scenario analysis under projected future climate scenarios provides insight into the performance of MAR as a stormwater management strategy under climate change conditions. The scenario analysis using an integrated model such as MIKE SHE is a valuable tool for evaluating the feasibility of the MAR as a stormwater management strategy and its potential to contribute towards improving Cape Town’s water security into the future.

Keywords: managed aquifer recharge, stormwater management, cape flats aquifer, MIKE SHE

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Authors: R. V. Suresh Reddi, Vishnu S. Das, Mathew Leslie

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The weather systems within the Arabian Sea is very dynamic in terms of monsoon and cyclone events. The storms generated in the Arabian Sea are more likely to progress in the north-west or west direction towards Oman. From the database of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the number of cyclones that hit the Oman coast or pass within close vicinity is noteworthy and therefore they must be considered when looking at coastal/port engineering design and development projects. This paper provides a case study of two cyclones, i.e., Nanauk (2014) and Ashobaa (2015) to assess the impact on storm surge off the Oman coast. These two cyclones have been selected since they are comparable in terms of maximum wind, cyclone duration, central pressure and month of occurrence. They are of similar strength but differ in track, allowing the impact of proximity to the coast to be considered. Of the two selected cyclones, Ashobaa is the 'extreme' case with close proximity while Nanauk remains further offshore and is considered as a more typical case. The available 'best-track' data from JTWC is obtained for the 2 selected cyclones, and the cyclone winds are generated using a 'Cyclone Wind Generation Tool' from MIKE (modelling software) from DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute). Using MIKE 21 Hydrodynamic model powered by DHI the storm surge is estimated at selected offshore locations along the Oman coast.

Keywords: costal engineering, cyclone, storm surge, modelling

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Authors: Tosin Deborah Akanbi, Adeyemi Oluwaseun Adepoju, Hameed Olusegun Adebambo, Akinloye Fatai Lawal

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a process that starts with the development of a sequential 3D design and encourages data administration, organization, and visualization throughout the life span of a facility (drawings, construction, and supervision). The implementation of building information modelling has been slow in recent years, and this is due to some prominent barriers that hinder its adoption. In this regard, the study aims to examine the significant barriers that influence the adoption of building information modelling in the Lagos state construction industry. Data were gathered through a questionnaire survey with 332 construction professionals in the study area. Three online structured interviews were conducted to support and validate the findings of the quantitative analysis. The results revealed that interest (lack of awareness and understanding of BIM, absence of in-house BIM competent professionals, and unavailability of BIM competent professionals in the labour market), legal (lack of policies and regulations on copyright ownership and lack of enforcement from government agencies and industry leaderships) and professional (people’s inability or refusal to learn new technologies and processes, waste in time and human resource and lack of clarity of professional roles in BIM) barriers are the major barriers influencing the adoption of BIM. The results also revealed that six final themes were generated, namely: finance barriers, industry barriers, interest barriers, leadership barriers, legal barriers, and professional barriers. Thus, there is a need for policymakers to design and implement policies (regulatory, economic, and information) to promote financial schemes to support construction firms and professionals and to reduce financial barriers. It is also important for the government to lay down rules and regulations that must be enforced among the construction professionals and firms in the Lagos state construction industry.

Keywords: BIM barriers, BIM adoption characteristics, construction industry, Lagos State Nigeria

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Authors: C. W. F. Che Wan Putra, M. Alshawi, M. S. Al Ahbabi, M. Jabakhanji

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Much of the waste that is generated throughout the life-cycle of a building is mainly related to project stakeholders not having access to information that others have created. This results in waste and high costs. Over the past decade, however, the industry reacted to these challenges by adopting effective procurement approaches, such as partnering and design and build, to improve collaboration and communication among projects’ stakeholders. Most recently, there is a focus on creating and reusing digital project information of stakeholders throughout the life-cycle to facilitate the exchange of information among partners. This shift is based around BIM (Building Information Modelling) and collaborative environment (IPD). The power of collaborative BIM goes beyond improving efficiency. Sustainability, perhaps the most important challenge for the design and construction community, is at the intersection of BIM and collaborative project delivery, drawing strength from both. Due to these benefits, a research study has been carried out to investigate the need of BIM and IPD, on a large scale construction project which is procured on a traditional approach, i.e. design-bid-build. A qualitative research work including a semi-structured interview with project partners was conducted on a typical project in the UAE, whereby the selected project suffered from severe delays and cost overrun. This paper aims to bring about clear evidence to what most likely to happen to a typical construction project in spite of employing very good consultants, project manager and contractors and how these problems could have been avoided if BIM and IPD were deployed.

Keywords: building information modelling (BIM), integrated project delivery (IPD), collaborative environment, case study

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Authors: Olusola Akintunde Adediran

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This study examined differential effect of Gender difference in social interaction skill of pupils with autism using token economy and video modeling as intervention strategies. A pretest, posttest, control group, quasi-experimental research design was adopted in the study. 17 participants (11 males and 6 females) were selected purposively from 5 centres in Ibadan and randomized into three groups (token economy, video modeling and control groups). Two instruments were used in the study; Autism Spectrum Rating Scale (ASRS) for 299.00 Autistic Disorder (r = 0.82) and Children’s Self-report Social Skill Scale (CS4) (r= 0.93). A descriptive statistics was used to analyse the participants social interaction data based on intervention and gender, while inferential statistics of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and scheffe post-hoc measure was used to anlayse three null hypotheses tested at 0.05 level of significance. The results obtained indicated that there was a significant main effect of treatment on social interaction of participants, but there was no significant of main effect of gender on the social interaction of participants, hence, (F(2,14) = .741; p > .05, eta = .050). Lastly, there was no significant interaction effect of treatment and gender of the participants, hence (F(2,10) = 2.177; p > .05, eta 2 = 202). The study has contributed to the frontiers of knowledge by establishing that social interaction of autism is attainable when token economy and video modelling are used as treatment intervention, hence, they should be adopted by the teachers, curriculum planners and other stakeholders.

Keywords: social interaction, token economy, video modelling, autism, gender

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Authors: Thandeka Y. S. Jwara, Paul Musonge

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Traditionally, the complexity associated with implementing and controlling biological nutrient removal (BNR) in wastewater works (WWW) has been primarily in terms of balancing competing requirements for nitrogen and phosphorus removal, particularly with respect to the use of influent chemical oxygen demand (COD) as a carbon source for the microorganisms. Successful BNR optimization and modelling using WEST (Worldwide Engine for Simulation and Training) depend largely on the accurate fractionation of the influent COD. The different COD fractions have differing effects on the BNR process, and therefore, the influent characteristics need to be well understood. This study presents the fractionation results of primary wastewater effluent COD at one of South Africa’s wastewater works treating 65ML/day of mixed industrial and domestic effluent. The method used for COD fractionation was the oxygen uptake rate/respirometry method. The breakdown of the results of the analysis is as follows: 70.5% biodegradable COD (bCOD) and 29.5% of non-biodegradable COD (iCOD) in terms of the total COD. Further fractionation led to a readily biodegradable soluble fraction (SS) of 75%, a slowly degradable particulate fraction (XS) of 24%, a particulate non-biodegradable fraction (XI) of 50.8% and a non-biodegradable soluble fraction (SI) of 49.2%. The fractionation results demonstrate that the primary effluent has good COD characteristics, as shown by the high level of the bCOD fraction with Ss being higher than Xs. This means that the microorganisms have sufficient substrate for the BNR process and that these components can now serve as inputs to the WEST Model for the plant under study.

Keywords: chemical oxygen demand, COD fractionation, wastewater modelling, wastewater optimization

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Authors: Boubaker Fezzani, Ridha Ben Cheikh, Tarek Rouissi

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In this work the original ADM1, implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB/Simulink, was modified and adapted and applied to reproduce the experimental results of the mesophilic anaerobic digestion of Esperto paper industry wastewater in a batch digester. The data set from lab-scale experiment runs were used to calibrate and validate the model. The simulations’ results indicated that the modified ADM1 was able to predict reasonably well the steady state results of gas flows, methane and carbon dioxide contents, pH and total volatile fatty acids (TVFA) observed with all influents concentrations.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, mathematical modelling, Simulation, ADM1, batch digester, esparto paper industry effluent, mesophilic temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Sarwat Jahan, Asker Rajin Rahman

Abstract:

Management of offtake of any fluvial river is very sensitive in terms of long-term sustainability where the variation of water flow and sediment transport range are wide enough throughout a hydrological year. The Gorai River is a major distributary of the Ganges River in Bangladesh and is termed as a primary source of fresh water for the South-West part of the country. Every year, significant siltation of the Gorai offtake disconnects it from the Ganges during the dry season. As a result, the socio-economic and environmental condition of the downstream areas has been deteriorating for a few decades. To improve the overall situation of the Gorai offtake and its dependent areas, a study has been conducted by the Institute of Water Modelling, Bangladesh, in 2022. Using the mathematical morphological modeling tool MIKE 21C of DHI Water & Environment, Denmark, simulated results revealed the need for dredging/river training structures for offtake management at the Gorai offtake to ensure significant dry season flow towards the downstream. The dry season flow is found to increase significantly with the proposed river interventions, which also improves the environmental conditions in terms of salinity of the South-West zone of the country. This paper summarizes the primary findings of the analyzed results of the developed mathematical model for improving the existing condition of the Gorai River.

Keywords: Gorai river, mathematical modelling, offtake, siltation, salinity

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

Abstract:

The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modelling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modelling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modelling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.

Keywords: content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series

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Authors: K. Bokreta, D. Benanaya

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

Keywords: economic growth, monetary policy, fiscal policy, VECM

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Asad Abbas, Muhammad Fezan Afzal, Muhammad Latif Anjum, Muhammad Azmat

Abstract:

The Internet of Things (IoT) is used to link up real objects that use the internet to interact. IoT applications allow handling and operating the equipment in accordance with environmental needs, such as transportation and healthcare. IoT devices are linked together via a number of agents that act as a middleman for communications. The operation of a heat sensor differs indoors and outside because agent applications work with environmental variables. In this article, we suggest using Software Product Line (SPL) to model IoT agents and applications' features on an XML-based basis. The contextual diversity within the same domain of application can be handled, and the reusability of features is increased by XML-based feature modelling. For the purpose of managing contextual variability, we have embraced XML for modelling IoT applications, agents, and internet-connected devices.

Keywords: IoT agents, IoT applications, software product line, feature model, XML

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

Abstract:

Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Abhishek Mangal, Kunal Tongaria, S. Mandal, Devendra Mohan

Abstract:

Carbonation of reinforced concrete structures has emerged as one of the major challenges for Civil engineers across the world. With increasing emissions from various activities, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been eve rising, enhancing its penetration in porous concrete, reaching steel bars and ultimately leading to premature failure. Several literatures have been published dealing with the various interdependent variables related to carbonation. However, with innumerable variability a generalization of these data proves to be a troublesome task. This paper looks into this carbonation anomaly in concrete structures caused by various external variables such as relative humidity, concentration of CO2, curing period and ambient temperature. Significant discussions and comparisons have been presented on the basis of various studies conducted with an aim to predict the depth of carbonation as a function of these multidimensional parameters using various numerical and statistical modelling techniques.

Keywords: carbonation, curing, exposure conditions, relative humidity

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Marsudi, Noor Hidayat, Ratno Bagus Edy Wibowo

Abstract:

This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and treatment are both important for the disease management. In modelling of the spread of AIDS, the population is divided into six subpopulations, namely susceptible population, susceptible population who change their behavior due to education condom campaign, infected population, pre-AIDS population, treated population and full-blown AIDS population. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. A sensitivity analysis discovers parameters that have a high impact on effective reproduction number and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate and verify our analytic results.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, condom campaign, antiretroviral treatment, effective reproduction number, stability and sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Behrang Dadfar, Hossein Bidhendi, Jimmy Susetyo, John Paul Abbatangelo

Abstract:

Finding structural demand under various conditions that a structure may experience during its service life is an important step towards structural life-cycle analysis. In this paper, structural demand for the precast concrete tunnel lining (PCTL) segments of Toronto’s 60-year-old subway tunnels is investigated. Numerical modelling was conducted using FLAC3D, a finite difference-based software capable of simulating ground-structure interaction and ground material’s flow in three dimensions. The specific structural details of the segmental tunnel lining, such as the convex shape of the PCTL segments at radial joints and the PCTL segment pockets, were considered in the numerical modelling. Also, the model was developed in a way to accommodate the flexibility required for the simulation of various deterioration scenarios, shapes, and patterns that have been observed over more than 20 years. The soil behavior was simulated by using plastic-hardening constitutive model of FLAC3D. The effect of the depth of the tunnel, the coefficient of lateral earth pressure as well as the patterns of deterioration of the segments were studied. The structural capacity under various deterioration patterns and the existing loading conditions was evaluated using axial-flexural interaction curves that were developed for each deterioration pattern. The results were used to provide recommendations for the next phase of tunnel lining rehabilitation program.

Keywords: precast concrete tunnel lining, ground-structure interaction, numerical modelling, deterioration, tunnels

Procedia PDF Downloads 146