Search results for: non-linear regression models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10074

Search results for: non-linear regression models

9834 Performance Investigation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Attitude Control Based on Modified PI-D and Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion

Authors: Ebrahim H. Kapeel, Ahmed M. Kamel, Hossam Hendy, Yehia Z. Elhalwagy

Abstract:

Interest in autopilot design has been raised intensely as a result of recent advancements in Unmanned Aerial vehicles (UAVs). Due to the enormous number of applications that UAVs can achieve, the number of applied control theories used for them has increased in recent years. These small fixed-wing UAVs are suffering high non-linearity, sensitivity to disturbances, and coupling effects between their channels. In this work, the nonlinear dynamic inversion (NDI) control law is designed for a nonlinear small fixed-wing UAV model. The NDI is preferable for varied operating conditions, there is no need for a scheduling controller. Moreover, it’s applicable for high angles of attack. For the designed flight controller validation, a nonlinear Modified PI-D controller is performed with our model. A comparative study between both controllers is achieved to evaluate the NDI performance. Simulation results and analysis are proposed to illustrate the effectiveness of the designed controller based on NDI.

Keywords: attitude control, nonlinear PID, dynamic inversion

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9833 Some Efficient Higher Order Iterative Schemes for Solving Nonlinear Systems

Authors: Sandeep Singh

Abstract:

In this article, two classes of iterative schemes are proposed for approximating solutions of nonlinear systems of equations whose orders of convergence are six and eight respectively. Sixth order scheme requires the evaluation of two vector-functions, two first Fr'echet derivatives and three matrices inversion per iteration. This three-step sixth-order method is further extended to eighth-order method which requires one more step and the evaluation of one extra vector-function. Moreover, computational efficiency is compared with some other recently published methods in which we found, our methods are more efficient than existing numerical methods for higher and medium size nonlinear system of equations. Numerical tests are performed to validate the proposed schemes.

Keywords: Nonlinear systems, Computational complexity, order of convergence, Jarratt-type scheme

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9832 Model Averaging for Poisson Regression

Authors: Zhou Jianhong

Abstract:

Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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9831 Establishment of the Regression Uncertainty of the Critical Heat Flux Power Correlation for an Advanced Fuel Bundle

Authors: L. Q. Yuan, J. Yang, A. Siddiqui

Abstract:

A new regression uncertainty analysis methodology was applied to determine the uncertainties of the critical heat flux (CHF) power correlation for an advanced 43-element bundle design, which was developed by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to achieve improved economics, resource utilization and energy sustainability. The new methodology is considered more appropriate than the traditional methodology in the assessment of the experimental uncertainty associated with regressions. The methodology was first assessed using both the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and the Taylor Series Method (TSM) for a simple linear regression model, and then extended successfully to a non-linear CHF power regression model (CHF power as a function of inlet temperature, outlet pressure and mass flow rate). The regression uncertainty assessed by MCM agrees well with that by TSM. An equation to evaluate the CHF power regression uncertainty was developed and expressed as a function of independent variables that determine the CHF power.

Keywords: CHF experiment, CHF correlation, regression uncertainty, Monte Carlo Method, Taylor Series Method

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9830 Duality in Multiobjective Nonlinear Programming under Generalized Second Order (F, b, φ, ρ, θ)− Univex Functions

Authors: Meraj Ali Khan, Falleh R. Al-Solamy

Abstract:

In the present paper, second order duality for multiobjective nonlinear programming are investigated under the second order generalized (F, b, φ, ρ, θ)− univex functions. The weak, strong and converse duality theorems are proved. Further, we also illustrated an example of (F, b, φ, ρ, θ)− univex functions. Results obtained in this paper extend some previously known results of multiobjective nonlinear programming in the literature.

Keywords: duality, multiobjective programming, univex functions, univex

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9829 Non-Parametric Regression over Its Parametric Couterparts with Large Sample Size

Authors: Jude Opara, Esemokumo Perewarebo Akpos

Abstract:

This paper is on non-parametric linear regression over its parametric counterparts with large sample size. Data set on anthropometric measurement of primary school pupils was taken for the analysis. The study used 50 randomly selected pupils for the study. The set of data was subjected to normality test, and it was discovered that the residuals are not normally distributed (i.e. they do not follow a Gaussian distribution) for the commonly used least squares regression method for fitting an equation into a set of (x,y)-data points using the Anderson-Darling technique. The algorithms for the nonparametric Theil’s regression are stated in this paper as well as its parametric OLS counterpart. The use of a programming language software known as “R Development” was used in this paper. From the analysis, the result showed that there exists a significant relationship between the response and the explanatory variable for both the parametric and non-parametric regression. To know the efficiency of one method over the other, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used, and it is discovered that the nonparametric regression performs better than its parametric regression counterparts due to their lower values in both the AIC and BIC. The study however recommends that future researchers should study a similar work by examining the presence of outliers in the data set, and probably expunge it if detected and re-analyze to compare results.

Keywords: Theil’s regression, Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, OLS

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9828 AutoML: Comprehensive Review and Application to Engineering Datasets

Authors: Parsa Mahdavi, M. Amin Hariri-Ardebili

Abstract:

The development of accurate machine learning and deep learning models traditionally demands hands-on expertise and a solid background to fine-tune hyperparameters. With the continuous expansion of datasets in various scientific and engineering domains, researchers increasingly turn to machine learning methods to unveil hidden insights that may elude classic regression techniques. This surge in adoption raises concerns about the adequacy of the resultant meta-models and, consequently, the interpretation of the findings. In response to these challenges, automated machine learning (AutoML) emerges as a promising solution, aiming to construct machine learning models with minimal intervention or guidance from human experts. AutoML encompasses crucial stages such as data preparation, feature engineering, hyperparameter optimization, and neural architecture search. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the principles underpinning AutoML, surveying several widely-used AutoML platforms. Additionally, the paper offers a glimpse into the application of AutoML on various engineering datasets. By comparing these results with those obtained through classical machine learning methods, the paper quantifies the uncertainties inherent in the application of a single ML model versus the holistic approach provided by AutoML. These examples showcase the efficacy of AutoML in extracting meaningful patterns and insights, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize the way we approach and analyze complex datasets.

Keywords: automated machine learning, uncertainty, engineering dataset, regression

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9827 The Soliton Solution of the Quadratic-Cubic Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation

Authors: Sarun Phibanchon, Yuttakarn Rattanachai

Abstract:

The quadratic-cubic nonlinear Schrodinger equation can be explained the weakly ion-acoustic waves in magnetized plasma with a slightly non-Maxwellian electron distribution by using the Madelung's fluid picture. However, the soliton solution to the quadratic-cubic nonlinear Schrodinger equation is determined by using the direct integration. By the characteristics of a soliton, the solution can be claimed that it's a soliton by considering its time evolution and their collisions between two solutions. These results are shown by applying the spectral method.

Keywords: soliton, ion-acoustic waves, plasma, spectral method

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9826 Optimum Design of Alkali Activated Slag Concretes for Low Chloride Ion Permeability and Water Absorption Capacity

Authors: Müzeyyen Balçikanli, Erdoğan Özbay, Hakan Tacettin Türker, Okan Karahan, Cengiz Duran Atiş

Abstract:

In this research, effect of curing time (TC), curing temperature (CT), sodium concentration (SC) and silicate modules (SM) on the compressive strength, chloride ion permeability, and water absorption capacity of alkali activated slag (AAS) concretes were investigated. For maximization of compressive strength while for minimization of chloride ion permeability and water absorption capacity of AAS concretes, best possible combination of CT, CTime, SC and SM were determined. An experimental program was conducted by using the central composite design method. Alkali solution-slag ratio was kept constant at 0.53 in all mixture. The effects of the independent parameters were characterized and analyzed by using statistically significant quadratic regression models on the measured properties (dependent parameters). The proposed regression models are valid for AAS concretes with the SC from 0.1% to 7.5%, SM from 0.4 to 3.2, CT from 20 °C to 94 °C and TC from 1.2 hours to 25 hours. The results of test and analysis indicate that the most effective parameter for the compressive strength, chloride ion permeability and water absorption capacity is the sodium concentration.

Keywords: alkali activation, slag, rapid chloride permeability, water absorption capacity

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9825 Method of Parameter Calibration for Error Term in Stochastic User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Model

Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

Abstract:

Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, stochastic user equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning

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9824 Exactly Fractional Solutions of Nonlinear Lattice Equation via Some Fractional Transformations

Authors: A. Zerarka, W. Djoudi

Abstract:

We use some fractional transformations to obtain many types of new exact solutions of nonlinear lattice equation. These solutions include rational solutions, periodic wave solutions, and doubly periodic wave solutions.

Keywords: fractional transformations, nonlinear equation, travelling wave solutions, lattice equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 641
9823 Coverage Probability Analysis of WiMAX Network under Additive White Gaussian Noise and Predicted Empirical Path Loss Model

Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

Abstract:

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis

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9822 Performance of Stiffened Slender Built up Steel I-Columns

Authors: M. E. Abou-Hashem El Dib, M. K. Swailem, M. M. Metwally, A. I. El Awady

Abstract:

The present work illustrates a parametric study for the effect of stiffeners on the performance of slender built up steel I-columns. To achieve the desired analysis, finite element technique is used to develop nonlinear three-dimensional models representing the investigated columns. The finite element program (ANSYS 13.0) is used as a calculation tool for the necessary nonlinear analysis. A validation of the obtained numerical results is achieved. The considered parameters in the study are the column slenderness ratio and the horizontal stiffener's dimensions as well as the number of stiffeners. The dimensions of the stiffeners considered in the analysis are the stiffener width and the stiffener thickness. Numerical results signify a considerable effect of stiffeners on the performance and failure load of slender built up steel I-columns.

Keywords: columns, local buckling, slender, stiffener, thin walled section

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9821 Automatic and High Precise Modeling for System Optimization

Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

Abstract:

To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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9820 Monitoring Large-Coverage Forest Canopy Height by Integrating LiDAR and Sentinel-2 Images

Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

Abstract:

Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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9819 Using Machine Learning to Classify Different Body Parts and Determine Healthiness

Authors: Zachary Pan

Abstract:

Our general mission is to solve the problem of classifying images into different body part types and deciding if each of them is healthy or not. However, for now, we will determine healthiness for only one-sixth of the body parts, specifically the chest. We will detect pneumonia in X-ray scans of those chest images. With this type of AI, doctors can use it as a second opinion when they are taking CT or X-ray scans of their patients. Another ad-vantage of using this machine learning classifier is that it has no human weaknesses like fatigue. The overall ap-proach to this problem is to split the problem into two parts: first, classify the image, then determine if it is healthy. In order to classify the image into a specific body part class, the body parts dataset must be split into test and training sets. We can then use many models, like neural networks or logistic regression models, and fit them using the training set. Now, using the test set, we can obtain a realistic accuracy the models will have on images in the real world since these testing images have never been seen by the models before. In order to increase this testing accuracy, we can also apply many complex algorithms to the models, like multiplicative weight update. For the second part of the problem, to determine if the body part is healthy, we can have another dataset consisting of healthy and non-healthy images of the specific body part and once again split that into the test and training sets. We then use another neural network to train on those training set images and use the testing set to figure out its accuracy. We will do this process only for the chest images. A major conclusion reached is that convolutional neural networks are the most reliable and accurate at image classification. In classifying the images, the logistic regression model, the neural network, neural networks with multiplicative weight update, neural networks with the black box algorithm, and the convolutional neural network achieved 96.83 percent accuracy, 97.33 percent accuracy, 97.83 percent accuracy, 96.67 percent accuracy, and 98.83 percent accuracy, respectively. On the other hand, the overall accuracy of the model that de-termines if the images are healthy or not is around 78.37 percent accuracy.

Keywords: body part, healthcare, machine learning, neural networks

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9818 Semiparametric Regression Of Truncated Spline Biresponse On Farmer Loyalty And Attachment Modeling

Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

Abstract:

Regression analysis is a statistical method that is able to describe and predict causal relationships between individuals. Not all relationships have a known curve shape; often, there are relationship patterns that cannot be known in the shape of the curve; besides that, a cause can have an impact on more than one effect, so that between effects can also have a close relationship in it. Regression analysis that can be done to find out the relationship can be brought closer to the semiparametric regression of truncated spline biresponse. The purpose of this study is to examine the function estimator and determine the best model of truncated spline biresponse semiparametric regression. The results of the secondary data study showed that the best model with the highest order of quadratic and a maximum of two knots with a Goodness of fit value in the form of Adjusted R2 of 88.5%.

Keywords: biresponse, farmer attachment, farmer loyalty, truncated spline

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9817 Modified Tendon Model Considered Structural Nonlinearity in PSC Structures

Authors: Yangsu Kwon, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

Abstract:

Nonlinear tendon constitutive model for nonlinear analysis of pre-stressed concrete structures are presented. Since the post-cracking behavior of concrete structures, in which bonded reinforcements such as tendons and/or reinforcing steels are embedded, depends on many influencing factors(the tensile strength of concrete, anchorage length of reinforcements, concrete cover, and steel spacing) that are deeply related to the bond characteristics between concrete and reinforcements, consideration of the tension stiffening effect on the basis of the bond-slip mechanism is necessary to evaluate ultimate resisting capacity of structures. In this paper, an improved tendon model, which considering the slip effect between concrete and tendon, and effect of tension stiffening, is suggested. The validity of the proposed models is established by comparing between the analytical results and experimental results in pre-stressed concrete beams.

Keywords: bond-slip, prestressed concrete, tendon, ultimate strength

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9816 Management of Femoral Neck Stress Fractures at a Specialist Centre and Predictive Factors to Return to Activity Time: An Audit

Authors: Charlotte K. Lee, Henrique R. N. Aguiar, Ralph Smith, James Baldock, Sam Botchey

Abstract:

Background: Femoral neck stress fractures (FNSF) are uncommon, making up 1 to 7.2% of stress fractures in healthy subjects. FNSFs are prevalent in young women, military recruits, endurance athletes, and individuals with energy deficiency syndrome or female athlete triad. Presentation is often non-specific and is often misdiagnosed following the initial examination. There is limited research addressing the return–to–activity time after FNSF. Previous studies have demonstrated prognostic time predictions based on various imaging techniques. Here, (1) OxSport clinic FNSF practice standards are retrospectively reviewed, (2) FNSF cohort demographics are examined, (3) Regression models were used to predict return–to–activity prognosis and consequently determine bone stress risk factors. Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of FNSF attending Oxsport clinic between 01/06/2020 and 01/01/2020 were selected from the Rheumatology Assessment Database Innovation in Oxford (RhADiOn) and OxSport Stress Fracture Database (n = 14). (1) Clinical practice was audited against five criteria based on local and National Institute for Health Care Excellence guidance, with a 100% standard. (2) Demographics of the FNSF cohort were examined with Student’s T-Test. (3) Lastly, linear regression and Random Forest regression models were used on this patient cohort to predict return–to–activity time. Consequently, an analysis of feature importance was conducted after fitting each model. Results: OxSport clinical practice met standard (100%) in 3/5 criteria. The criteria not met were patient waiting times and documentation of all bone stress risk factors. Importantly, analysis of patient demographics showed that of the population with complete bone stress risk factor assessments, 53% were positive for modifiable bone stress risk factors. Lastly, linear regression analysis was utilized to identify demographic factors that predicted return–to–activity time [R2 = 79.172%; average error 0.226]. This analysis identified four key variables that predicted return-to-activity time: vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, femoral neck DEXA T value, and history of an eating disorder/disordered eating. Furthermore, random forest regression models were employed for this task [R2 = 97.805%; average error 0.024]. Analysis of the importance of each feature again identified a set of 4 variables, 3 of which matched with the linear regression analysis (vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, and femoral neck DEXA T value) and the fourth: age. Conclusion: OxSport clinical practice could be improved by more comprehensively evaluating bone stress risk factors. The importance of this evaluation is demonstrated by the population found positive for these risk factors. Using this cohort, potential bone stress risk factors that significantly impacted return-to-activity prognosis were predicted using regression models.

Keywords: eating disorder, bone stress risk factor, femoral neck stress fracture, vitamin D

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9815 Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Projections over Uganda by Numerical Models Using Bias Correction

Authors: Isaac Mugume

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

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9814 Efficient Estimation for the Cox Proportional Hazards Cure Model

Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

Abstract:

While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

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9813 X-Bracing Configuration and Seismic Response

Authors: Saeed Rahjoo, Babak H. Mamaqani

Abstract:

Concentric bracing systems have been in practice for many years because of their effectiveness in reducing seismic response. Depending on concept, seismic design codes provide various response modification factors (R), which itself consists of different terms, for different types of lateral load bearing systems but configuration of these systems are often ignored in the proposed values. This study aims at considering the effect of different x-bracing diagonal configuration on values of ductility dependent term in R computation. 51 models were created and nonlinear push over analysis has been performed. The main variables of this study were the suitable location of X–bracing diagonal configurations, which establishes better nonlinear behavior in concentric braced steel frames. Results show that some x-bracing diagonal configurations improve the seismic performance of CBF significantly and explicit consideration of lateral load bearing systems seems necessary.

Keywords: bracing configuration, concentrically braced frame (CBF), push over analyses, response reduction factor

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9812 Apricot Insurance Portfolio Risk

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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9811 Observer-Based Leader-Following Consensus of Nonlinear Fractional-Order Multi-Agent Systems

Authors: Ali Afaghi, Sehraneh Ghaemi

Abstract:

The coordination of the multi-agent systems has been one of the interesting topic in recent years, because of its potential applications in many branches of science and engineering such as sensor networks, flocking, underwater vehicles and etc. In the most of the related studies, it is assumed that the dynamics of the multi-agent systems are integer-order and linear and the multi-agent systems with the fractional-order nonlinear dynamics are rarely considered. However many phenomena in nature cannot be described within integer-order and linear characteristics. This paper investigates the leader-following consensus problem for a class of nonlinear fractional-order multi-agent systems based on observer-based cooperative control. In the system, the dynamics of each follower and leader are nonlinear. For a multi-agent system with fixed directed topology firstly, an observer-based consensus protocol is proposed based on the relative observer states of neighboring agents. Secondly, based on the property of the stability theory of fractional-order system, some sufficient conditions are presented for the asymptotical stability of the observer-based fractional-order control systems. The proposed method is applied on a five-agent system with the fractional-order nonlinear dynamics and unavailable states. The simulation example shows that the proposed scenario results in the good performance and can be used in many practical applications.

Keywords: fractional-order multi-agent systems, leader-following consensus, nonlinear dynamics, directed graphs

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9810 Second Order Cone Optimization Approach to Two-stage Network DEA

Authors: K. Asanimoghadam, M. Salahi, A. Jamalian

Abstract:

Data envelopment analysis is an approach to measure the efficiency of decision making units with multiple inputs and outputs. The structure of many decision making units also has decision-making subunits that are not considered in most data envelopment analysis models. Also, the inputs and outputs of the decision-making units usually are considered desirable, while in some real-world problems, the nature of some inputs or outputs are undesirable. In this thesis, we study the evaluation of the efficiency of two stage decision-making units, where some outputs are undesirable using two non-radial models, the SBM and the ASBM models. We formulate the nonlinear ASBM model as a second order cone optimization problem. Finally, we compare two models for both external and internal evaluation approaches for two real world example in the presence of undesirable outputs. The results show that, in both external and internal evaluations, the overall efficiency of ASBM model is greater than or equal to the overall efficiency value of the SBM model, and in internal evaluation, the ASBM model is more flexible than the SBM model.

Keywords: network DEA, conic optimization, undesirable output, SBM

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9809 Study of the Nonlinear Optic Properties of Thin Films of Europium Doped Zinc Oxide

Authors: Ali Ballouch, Nourelhouda Choukri, Zouhair Soufiani, Mohamed El Jouad, Mohamed Addou

Abstract:

For several years, significant research has been developed in the areas of applications of semiconductor wide bandgap such as ZnO in optoelectronics. This oxide has the advantage of having a large exciton energy (60 meV) three times higher than that of GaN (21 meV) or ZnS (20 meV). This energy makes zinc oxide resistant for laser irradiations and very interesting for the near UV-visible optic, as well as for studying physical microcavities. A high-energy direct gap at room temperature (Eg > 1 eV) which makes it a potential candidate for emitting devices in the near UV and visible. Our work is to study the nonlinear optical properties, mainly the nonlinear third-order susceptibility of europium doped Zinc oxide thin films. The samples were prepared by chemical vapor spray method (Spray), XRD, SEM technique, THG were used for characterization. In this context, the influence of europium doping on the nonlinear optical response of the Zinc oxide was investigated. The nonlinear third-order properties depend on the physico-chemical parameters (crystallinity, strain, and surface roughness), the nature and the level of doping, temperature.

Keywords: ZnO, characterization, non-linear optical properties, optoelectronics

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9808 Comprehensive Investigation of Solving Analytical of Nonlinear Differential Equations at Chemical Reactions to Design of Reactors by New Method “AGM”

Authors: Mohammadreza Akbari, Pooya Soleimani Besheli, Reza khalili, Sara Akbari, Davood Domiri Ganji

Abstract:

In this symposium, our aims are accuracy, capabilities and power at solving of the complicate non-linear differential at the reaction chemical in the catalyst reactor (heterogeneous reaction). Our purpose is to enhance the ability of solving the mentioned nonlinear differential equations at chemical engineering and similar issues with a simple and innovative approach which entitled ‘’Akbari-Ganji's Method’’ or ‘’AGM’’. In this paper we solve many examples of nonlinear differential equations of chemical reactions and its investigate. The chemical reactor with the energy changing (non-isotherm) in two reactors of mixed and plug are separately studied and the nonlinear differential equations obtained from the reaction behavior in these systems are solved by a new method. Practically, the reactions with the energy changing (heat or cold) have an important effect on designing and function of the reactors. This means that possibility of reaching the optimal conditions of operation for the maximum conversion depending on nonlinear nature of the reaction velocity toward temperature, results in the complexity of the operation in the reactor. In this case, the differential equation set which governs the reactors can be obtained simultaneous solution of mass equilibrium and energy and temperature changing at concentration.

Keywords: new method (AGM), nonlinear differential equation, tubular and mixed reactors, catalyst bed

Procedia PDF Downloads 366
9807 Application of Regularized Low-Rank Matrix Factorization in Personalized Targeting

Authors: Kourosh Modarresi

Abstract:

The Netflix problem has brought the topic of “Recommendation Systems” into the mainstream of computer science, mathematics, and statistics. Though much progress has been made, the available algorithms do not obtain satisfactory results. The success of these algorithms is rarely above 5%. This work is based on the belief that the main challenge is to come up with “scalable personalization” models. This paper uses an adaptive regularization of inverse singular value decomposition (SVD) that applies adaptive penalization on the singular vectors. The results show far better matching for recommender systems when compared to the ones from the state of the art models in the industry.

Keywords: convex optimization, LASSO, regression, recommender systems, singular value decomposition, low rank approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 437
9806 Seismic Soil-Pile Interaction Considering Nonlinear Soil Column Behavior in Saturated and Dry Soil Conditions

Authors: Mohammad Moeini, Mehrdad Ghyabi, Kiarash Mohtasham Dolatshahi

Abstract:

This paper investigates seismic soil-pile interaction using the Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) approach. Three soil types are considered to cover all the possible responses, as well as nonlinear site response analysis using finite element method in OpenSees platform. Excitations at each elevation that are output of the site response analysis are used as the input excitation to the soil pile system implementing multi-support excitation method. Spectral intensities of acceleration show that the extent of the response in sand is more severe than that of clay, in addition, increasing the PGA of ground strong motion will affect the sandy soil more, in comparison with clayey medium, which is an indicator of the sensitivity of soil-pile systems in sandy soil.

Keywords: BNWF method, multi-support excitation, nonlinear site response analysis, seismic soil-pile interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 376
9805 Measuring Enterprise Growth: Pitfalls and Implications

Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

Abstract:

Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 239