Search results for: water resources yield and planning model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 30192

Search results for: water resources yield and planning model

3492 The Relation between the Organizational Trust Level and Organizational Justice Perceptions of Staff in Konya Municipality: A Theoretical and Empirical Study

Authors: Handan Ertaş

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to determine the relationship between organizational trust level and organizational justice of Municipality officials. Correlational method has been used via descriptive survey model and Organizational Justice Perception Scale, Organizational Trust Inventory and Interpersonal Trust Scale have been applied to 353 participants who work in Konya Metropolitan Municipality and central district municipalities in the study. Frequency as statistical method, Independent Samples t test for binary groups, One Way-ANOVA analyses for multi-groups and Pearson Correlation analysis have been used to determine the relation in the data analysis process. It has been determined in the outcomes of the study that participants have high level of organizational trust, “Interpersonal Trust” is in the first place and there is a significant difference in the favor of male officials in terms of Trust on the Organization Itself and Interpersonal Trust. It has also been understood that officials in district municipalities have higher perception level in all dimensions, there is a significant difference in Trust on the Organization sub-dimension and work status is an important factor on organizational trust perception. Moreover, the study has shown that organizational justice implementations are important in raising trust of official on the organization, administrator and colleagues, and there is a parallel relation between Organizational Trust components and Organizational Trust dimensions.

Keywords: organizational trust level, organizational justice perceptions, staff, Konya

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3491 Identification of Tangible and Intangible Heritage and Preparation of Conservation Proposal for the Historic City of Karanja Laad

Authors: Prachi Buche Marathe

Abstract:

Karanja Laad is a city located in the Vidarbha region in the state of Maharashtra, India. It has a huge amount of tangible and intangible heritage in the form of monuments, precincts, a group of structures, festivals and procession route, which is neglected and lost with time. Three different religions Hinduism, Islam and Jainism along with associations of being a birthplace of Swami Nrusinha Saraswati, an exponent of Datta Sampradaya sect and the British colonial layer have shaped the culture and society of the place over the period. The architecture of the town Karanja Laad has enhanced its unique historic and cultural value with a combination of all these historic layers. Karanja Laad is also a traditional trading historic town with unique hybrid architectural style and has a good potential for developing as a tourist place along with the present image of a pilgrim destination of Datta Sampradaya. The aim of the research is to prepare a conservation proposal for the historic town along with the management framework. Objectives of the research are to study the evolution of Karanja town, to identify the cultural resources along with issues of the historic core of the city, to understand Datta sampradaya, and contribution of Saint Nrusinha Saraswati in the religious sect and his association as an important personality with Karanja. The methodology of the research is site visits to the Karanja city, making field surveys for documentation and discussions and questionnaires with the residents to establish heritage and identify potential and issues within the historic core thereby establishing a case for conservation. Field surveys are conducted for town level study of land use, open spaces, occupancy, ownership, traditional commodity and community, infrastructure, streetscapes, and precinct activities during the festival and non-festival period. Building level study includes establishing various typologies like residential, institutional commercial, religious, and traditional infrastructure from the mythological references like waterbodies (kund), lake and wells. One of the main issues is that the loss of the traditional footprint as well as the traditional open spaces which are getting lost due to the new illegal encroachments and lack of guidelines for the new additions to conserve the original fabric of the structures. Traditional commodities are getting lost since there is no promotion of these skills like pottery and painting. Lavish bungalows like Kannava mansion, main temple Wada (birthplace of the saint) have a huge potential to be developed as a museum by adaptive re-use which will, in turn, attract many visitors during festivals which will boost the economy. Festival procession routes can be identified and a heritage walk can be developed so as to highlight the traditional features of the town. Overall study has resulted in establishing a heritage map with 137 heritage structures identified as potential. Conservation proposal is worked out on the town level, precinct level and building level with interventions such as developing construction guidelines for further development and establishing a heritage cell consisting architects and engineers for the upliftment of the existing rich heritage of the Karanja city.

Keywords: built heritage, conservation, Datta Sampradaya, Karanja Laad, Swami Nrusinha Saraswati, procession route

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3490 The Impact of Transformational Leadership and Interpersonal Interaction on Mentoring Function

Authors: Ching-Yuan Huang, Rhay-Hung Weng, Yi-Ting Chen

Abstract:

Mentoring functions will improve new nurses' job performance, provide support with new nurses, and then reduce the turnover rate of them. This study explored the impact of transformational leadership and interpersonal interaction on mentoring functions. We employed a questionnaire survey to collect data and selected a sample of new nurses from three hospitals in Taiwan. A total of 306 valid surveys were obtained. Multiple regression model analysis was conducted to test the study hypothesis. Inspirational motivation, idealized influence, and individualized consideration had a positive influence on overall mentoring function, but intellectual stimulation had a positive influence on career development function only. Perceived similarity and interaction frequency also had positive influences on mentoring functions. When the shift overlap rate exceeded 80%, mentoring function experienced a negative result. The transformational leadership of mentors actually would improve the mentoring functions among new staff nurses. Perceived similarity and interaction frequency between mentees and mentors also had a positive influence on mentoring functions. Managers should enhance the transformational leadership of mentors by designing leadership training and motivation programs. Furthermore, nursing managers should promote the interaction between new staff nurses and their mentors, but the shift overlap rate should not exceed 80%.

Keywords: interpersonal interaction, mentoring function, mentor, new nurse, transformational leadership

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3489 Fraud Detection in Credit Cards with Machine Learning

Authors: Anjali Chouksey, Riya Nimje, Jahanvi Saraf

Abstract:

Online transactions have increased dramatically in this new ‘social-distancing’ era. With online transactions, Fraud in online payments has also increased significantly. Frauds are a significant problem in various industries like insurance companies, baking, etc. These frauds include leaking sensitive information related to the credit card, which can be easily misused. Due to the government also pushing online transactions, E-commerce is on a boom. But due to increasing frauds in online payments, these E-commerce industries are suffering a great loss of trust from their customers. These companies are finding credit card fraud to be a big problem. People have started using online payment options and thus are becoming easy targets of credit card fraud. In this research paper, we will be discussing machine learning algorithms. We have used a decision tree, XGBOOST, k-nearest neighbour, logistic-regression, random forest, and SVM on a dataset in which there are transactions done online mode using credit cards. We will test all these algorithms for detecting fraud cases using the confusion matrix, F1 score, and calculating the accuracy score for each model to identify which algorithm can be used in detecting frauds.

Keywords: machine learning, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, decision tree, k nearest neighbour, random forest, XGBOOST, logistic regression, support vector machine

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3488 Fault Tolerant Control System Using a Multiple Time Scale SMC Technique and a Geometric Approach

Authors: Ghodbane Azeddine, Saad Maarouf, Boland Jean-Francois, Thibeault Claude

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new design of an active fault-tolerant flight control system against abrupt actuator faults. This overall system combines a multiple time scale sliding mode controller for fault compensation and a geometric approach for fault detection and diagnosis. The proposed control system is able to accommodate several kinds of partial and total actuator failures, by using available healthy redundancy actuators. The overall system first estimates the correct fault information using the geometric approach. Then, and based on that, a new reconfigurable control law is designed based on the multiple time scale sliding mode technique for on-line compensating the effect of such faults. This approach takes advantages of the fact that there are significant difference between the time scales of aircraft states that have a slow dynamics and those that have a fast dynamics. The closed-loop stability of the overall system is proved using Lyapunov technique. A case study of the non-linear model of the F16 fighter, subject to the rudder total loss of control confirms the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: actuator faults, fault detection and diagnosis, fault tolerant flight control, sliding mode control, multiple time scale approximation, geometric approach for fault reconstruction, lyapunov stability

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3487 Protective Effects of Vitamin C and Vitamin E on Experimentally Induced Testicular Torsion and Detorsion in Rat Model

Authors: Anu Vinod Ranade

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Aim: To evaluate and compare the effects of Vitamin C and Vitamin E on experimentally induced testicular torsion and detorsion in rats. Methods: Forty Male Wistar Albino rats were divided into five groups. Animals in the Group I underwent Sham operation, Group II consisted of animals that were subjected to torsion for three hours followed by detorsion for 24 hours without any treatment. While Group III, IV and V were orally pretreated with Vitamin C (40mg/kg.bw), vitamin E (100mg/kg.bw) and a combination of Vitamin C and vitamin E respectively for a period of 30 days. The testes of the experimental groups were manually rotated to 720° clockwise for three hours and counter rotated for 24 hours to induce ischemia and reperfusion. Sequential biopsies were performed and the testes were collected at the end of 24 hours of detrosion for morphological evaluation. Result: There was a significant decrease in the standard tubular diameter and the epithelial height of the seminiferous tubules in the untreated group when compared to Sham controls. The standard tubular diameter and seminiferous epithelial height showed near normal values when animals were pretreated with Vitamin C and Vitamin E individually or in combination. Conclusion: The results showed that pretreatment of with antioxidants vitamin E and vitamin C when administered prior to testicular torsion in rats significantly reduced the torsion and detorsion induced histopathlogical injury.

Keywords: vitamin C, vitamin E, standard tubular diameter, standard epithelial height, testicular torsion

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3486 Loan Supply and Asset Price Volatility: An Experimental Study

Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

Abstract:

This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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3485 The Effects of Metformin And PCL-sorafenib Nanoparticles Co-treatment on MCF-7 Cell Culture Model of Breast Cancer

Authors: Emad Heydarnia, Aref Sepasi, Nika Asefi, Sara Khakshournia, Javad Mohammadnejad

Abstract:

Background: Despite breakthrough therapeutics in breast cancer, it is one of the main causes of mortality among women worldwide. Thus, drug therapies for treating breast cancer have recently been developed by scientists. Metformin and Sorafenib are well-known therapeutic in breast cancer. In the present study, we combined Sorafenib and PCL-sorafenib with metformin to improve drug absorption and promote therapeutic efficiency. Methods: The MCF-7 cells were treated with Metformin, Sorafenib, or PCL-sorafenib. The growth inhibitory effect of these drugs and cell viability were assessed using MTT and flow cytometry assays, respectively. The expression of targeted genes involved in cell proliferation, signaling, and the cell cycle was measured by Real-time PCR. Results: The results showed that MCF-7 cells treated with Metformin/Sorafenib and PCL-sorafenib/Metformin co-treatment contributed to 50% viability compared to untreated group. Moreover, PI and Annexin V staining tests showed that the cells viability for Metformin/Sorafenib and PCL-sorafenib/Metformin was 38% and 17%, respectively. Furthermore, Sorafenib/Metformin and PCL-sorafenib/Metformin leads to p53 gene expression increase by which they can increase ROS, thereby decreasing GPX4 gene expression. In addition, they affected the expression of BCL2, and BAX genes and altered the cell cycle. Conclusion: Together, the combination of PCL-sorafenib/Metformin and Sorafenib/Metformin increased Sorafenib absorption at lower doses and also leads to apoptosis and oxidative stress increases in MCF-7 cells.

Keywords: breast cancer, metformin, nanotechnology, sorafenib

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3484 Income Diversification of Small Holder Farmers in Bosso Local Government Area of Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: Oladipo Joseph Ajayi, Yakubu Muhammed, Caleb Galadima

Abstract:

This study was conducted to examine the income diversification of smallholder farmers in Bosso Local Government area of Niger state, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the farmers, identify the sources of income among the farmers, determine the pattern of income diversification and evaluate the determinants of income diversification of farmers in the study area. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 94 respondents for the study. Primary data were used, and these were collected with aid of a well structured interview schedule. Descriptive statistics, diversity index, and Tobit regression model were employed to analyze the data. The mean age of the farmers was 44 years. The average household size was 8 members per household, and the average farming experience was 12 years. 21.27 percent did not have formal education. It was further found that 69.1 percent of the respondents had an income diversity index of 0.3-0.4. This indicated that their level of income diversification was moderately low. The determinants of income diversification in the study area were education, household size, marital status, and primary income. These variables were positively related to income diversification. The study revealed that diversification into various income sources has helped to increase household income to sustain the family demands even though their level of income diversification was low within the study area.

Keywords: diversification, income, households, smallholder farmers

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3483 Electrodynamic Principles for Generation and Wireless Transfer of Energy

Authors: Steven D. P. Moore

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An electrical discharge in the air induces an electromagnetic (EM) wave capable of wireless transfer, reception, and conversion back into electrical discharge at a distant location. Following Norton’s ground wave principles, EM wave radiation (EMR) runs parallel to the Earth’s surface. Energy in an EMR wave can move through the air and be focused to create a spark at a distant location, focused by a receiver to generate a local electrical discharge. This local discharge can be amplified and stored but also has the propensity to initiate another EMR wave. In addition to typical EM waves, lightning is also associated with atmospheric events, trans-ionospheric pulse pairs, the most powerful natural EMR signal on the planet. With each lightning strike, regardless of global position, it generates naturally occurring pulse-pairs that are emitted towards space within a narrow cone. An EMR wave can self-propagate, travel at the speed of light, and, if polarized, contain vector properties. If this reflective pulse could be directed by design through structures that have increased probabilities for lighting strikes, it could theoretically travel near the surface of the Earth at light speed towards a selected receiver for local transformation into electrical energy. Through research, there are several influencing parameters that could be modified to model, test, and increase the potential for adopting this technology towards the goal of developing a global grid that utilizes natural sources of energy.

Keywords: electricity, sparkgap, wireless, electromagnetic

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3482 Medicompills Architecture: A Mathematical Precise Tool to Reduce the Risk of Diagnosis Errors on Precise Medicine

Authors: Adriana Haulica

Abstract:

Powered by Machine Learning, Precise medicine is tailored by now to use genetic and molecular profiling, with the aim of optimizing the therapeutic benefits for cohorts of patients. As the majority of Machine Language algorithms come from heuristics, the outputs have contextual validity. This is not very restrictive in the sense that medicine itself is not an exact science. Meanwhile, the progress made in Molecular Biology, Bioinformatics, Computational Biology, and Precise Medicine, correlated with the huge amount of human biology data and the increase in computational power, opens new healthcare challenges. A more accurate diagnosis is needed along with real-time treatments by processing as much as possible from the available information. The purpose of this paper is to present a deeper vision for the future of Artificial Intelligence in Precise medicine. In fact, actual Machine Learning algorithms use standard mathematical knowledge, mostly Euclidian metrics and standard computation rules. The loss of information arising from the classical methods prevents obtaining 100% evidence on the diagnosis process. To overcome these problems, we introduce MEDICOMPILLS, a new architectural concept tool of information processing in Precise medicine that delivers diagnosis and therapy advice. This tool processes poly-field digital resources: global knowledge related to biomedicine in a direct or indirect manner but also technical databases, Natural Language Processing algorithms, and strong class optimization functions. As the name suggests, the heart of this tool is a compiler. The approach is completely new, tailored for omics and clinical data. Firstly, the intrinsic biological intuition is different from the well-known “a needle in a haystack” approach usually used when Machine Learning algorithms have to process differential genomic or molecular data to find biomarkers. Also, even if the input is seized from various types of data, the working engine inside the MEDICOMPILLS does not search for patterns as an integrative tool. This approach deciphers the biological meaning of input data up to the metabolic and physiologic mechanisms, based on a compiler with grammars issued from bio-algebra-inspired mathematics. It translates input data into bio-semantic units with the help of contextual information iteratively until Bio-Logical operations can be performed on the base of the “common denominator “rule. The rigorousness of MEDICOMPILLS comes from the structure of the contextual information on functions, built to be analogous to mathematical “proofs”. The major impact of this architecture is expressed by the high accuracy of the diagnosis. Detected as a multiple conditions diagnostic, constituted by some main diseases along with unhealthy biological states, this format is highly suitable for therapy proposal and disease prevention. The use of MEDICOMPILLS architecture is highly beneficial for the healthcare industry. The expectation is to generate a strategic trend in Precise medicine, making medicine more like an exact science and reducing the considerable risk of errors in diagnostics and therapies. The tool can be used by pharmaceutical laboratories for the discovery of new cures. It will also contribute to better design of clinical trials and speed them up.

Keywords: bio-semantic units, multiple conditions diagnosis, NLP, omics

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3481 Development of Deep Neural Network-Based Strain Values Prediction Models for Full-Scale Reinforced Concrete Frames Using Highly Flexible Sensing Sheets

Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

Abstract:

Structural Health monitoring systems (SHM) are commonly used to identify and assess structural damage. In terms of damage detection, SHM needs to periodically collect data from sensors placed in the structure as damage-sensitive features. This includes abnormal changes caused by the strain field and abnormal symptoms of the structure, such as damage and deterioration. Currently, deploying sensors on a large scale in a building structure is a challenge. In this study, a highly stretchable strain sensors are used in this study to collect data sets of strain generated on the surface of full-size reinforced concrete (RC) frames under extreme cyclic load application. This sensing sheet can be switched freely between the test bending strain and the axial strain to achieve two different configurations. On this basis, the deep neural network prediction model of the frame beam and frame column is established. The training results show that the method can accurately predict the strain value and has good generalization ability. The two deep neural network prediction models will also be deployed in the SHM system in the future as part of the intelligent strain sensor system.

Keywords: strain sensing sheets, deep neural networks, strain measurement, SHM system, RC frames

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3480 Numerical Modelling of Dust Propagation in the Atmosphere of Tbilisi City in Case of Western Background Light Air

Authors: N. Gigauri, V. Kukhalashvili, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli, L. Gverdtsiteli

Abstract:

Tbilisi, a large city of the South Caucasus, is a junction point connecting Asia and Europe, Russia and republics of the Asia Minor. Over the last years, its atmosphere has been experienced an increasing anthropogenic load. Numerical modeling method is used for study of Tbilisi atmospheric air pollution. By means of 3D non-linear non-steady numerical model a peculiarity of city atmosphere pollution is investigated during background western light air. Dust concentration spatial and time changes are determined. There are identified the zones of high, average and less pollution, dust accumulation areas, transfer directions etc. By numerical modeling, there is shown that the process of air pollution by the dust proceeds in four stages, and they depend on the intensity of motor traffic, the micro-relief of the city, and the location of city mains. In the interval of time 06:00-09:00 the intensive growth, 09:00-15:00 a constancy or weak decrease, 18:00-21:00 an increase, and from 21:00 to 06:00 a reduction of the dust concentrations take place. The highly polluted areas are located in the vicinity of the city center and at some peripherical territories of the city, where the maximum dust concentration at 9PM is equal to 2 maximum allowable concentrations. The similar investigations conducted in case of various meteorological situations will enable us to compile the map of background urban pollution and to elaborate practical measures for ambient air protection.

Keywords: air pollution, dust, numerical modeling, urban

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3479 Making the Right Call for Falls: Evaluating the Efficacy of a Multi-Faceted Trust Wide Approach to Improving Patient Safety Post Falls

Authors: Jawaad Saleem, Hannah Wright, Peter Sommerville, Adrian Hopper

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Introduction: Inpatient falls are the most commonly reported patient safety incidents, and carry a significant burden on resources, morbidity, and mortality. Ensuring adequate post falls management of patients by staff is therefore paramount to maintaining patient safety especially in out of hours and resource stretched settings. Aims: This quality improvement project aims to improve the current practice of falls management at Guys St Thomas Hospital, London as compared to our 2016 Quality Improvement Project findings. Furthermore, it looks to increase current junior doctors confidence in managing falls and their use of new guidance protocols. Methods: Multifaceted Interventions implemented included: the development of new trust wide guidelines detailing management pathways for patients post falls, available for intranet access. Furthermore, the production of 2000 lanyard cards distributed amongst junior doctors and staff which summarised these guidelines. Additionally, a ‘safety signal’ email was sent from the Trust chief medical officer to all staff raising awareness of falls and the guidelines. Formal falls teaching was also implemented for new doctors at induction. Using an established incident database, 189 consecutive falls in 2017were retrospectively analysed electronically to assess and compared to the variables measured in 2016 post interventions. A separate serious incident database was used to analyse 50 falls from May 2015 to March 2018 to ascertain the statistical significance of the impact of our interventions on serious incidents. A similar questionnaire for the 2017 cohort of foundation year one (FY1) doctors was performed and compared to 2016 results. Results: Questionnaire data demonstrated improved awareness and utility of guidelines and increased confidence as well as an increase in training. 97% of FY1 trainees felt that the interventions had increased their awareness of the impact of falls on patients in the trust. Data from the incident database demonstrated the time to review patients post fall had decreased from an average of 130 to 86 minutes. Improvement was also demonstrated in the reduced time to order and schedule X-ray and CT imaging, 3 and 5 hours respectively. Data from the serious incident database show that ‘the time from fall until harm was detected’ was statistically significantly lower (P = 0.044) post intervention. We also showed the incidence of significant delays in detecting harm ( > 10 hours) reduced post intervention. Conclusions: Our interventions have helped to significantly reduce the average time to assess, order and schedule appropriate imaging post falls. Delays of over ten hours to detect serious injuries after falls were commonplace; since the intervention, their frequency has markedly reduced. We suggest this will lead to identifying patient harm sooner, reduced clinical incidents relating to falls and thus improve overall patient safety. Our interventions have also helped increase clinical staff confidence, management, and awareness of falls in the trust. Next steps include expanding teaching sessions, improving multidisciplinary team involvement to aid this improvement.

Keywords: patient safety, quality improvement, serious incidents, falls, clinical care

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3478 An Exploration of Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics Competition from the Perspective of Arts

Authors: Qiao Mao

Abstract:

There is a growing number of studies concerning STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) and STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics). However, the research is little on STEAM competitions from Arts' perspective. This study takes the annual PowerTech STEAM competition in Taiwan as an example. In this activity, students are asked to make wooden bionic mechanical beasts on the spot and participate in a model and speed competition. This study aims to explore how Arts influences STEM after it involves in the making of mechanical beasts. A case study method is adopted. Through expert sampling, five prize winners in the PowerTech Youth Science and Technology Creation Competition and their supervisors are taken as the research subjects. Relevant data which are collected, sorted out, analyzed and interpreted afterwards, derive from observations, interview and document analyses, etc. The results of the study show that in the PowerTech Youth Science and Technology Creation Competition, when Arts involves in STEM, (1) it has an impact on the athletic performance, balance, stability and symmetry of mechanical beasts; (2) students become more interested and more creative in making STEAM mechanical beasts, which can promote students' learning of STEM; (3) students encounter more difficulties and problems when making STEAM mechanical beasts, and need to have more systematic thinking and design thinking to solve problems.

Keywords: PowerTech, STEAM contest, mechanical beast, arts' role

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3477 A Computational Study on Flow Separation Control of Humpback Whale Inspired Sinusoidal Hydrofoils

Authors: J. Joy, T. H. New, I. H. Ibrahim

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A computational study on bio-inspired NACA634-021 hydrofoils with leading-edge protuberances has been carried out to investigate their hydrodynamic flow control characteristics at a Reynolds number of 14,000 and different angles-of-attack. The numerical simulations were performed using ANSYS FLUENT and based on Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver mode incorporated with k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model. The results obtained indicate varying flow phenomenon along the peaks and troughs over the span of the hydrofoils. Compared to the baseline hydrofoil with no leading-edge protuberances, the leading-edge modified hydrofoils tend to reduce flow separation extents along the peak regions. In contrast, there are increased flow separations in the trough regions of the hydrofoil with leading-edge protuberances. Interestingly, it was observed that dissimilar flow separation behaviour is produced along different peak- or trough-planes along the hydrofoil span, even though the troughs or peaks are physically similar at each interval for a particular hydrofoil. Significant interactions between adjacent flow structures produced by the leading-edge protuberances have also been observed. These flow interactions are believed to be responsible for the dissimilar flow separation behaviour along physically similar peak- or trough-planes.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, flow separation control, hydrofoils, leading-edge protuberances

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3476 Contribution at Dimensioning of the Energy Dissipation Basin

Authors: M. Aouimeur

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The environmental risks of a dam and particularly the security in the Valley downstream of it,, is a very complex problem. Integrated management and risk-sharing become more and more indispensable. The definition of "vulnerability “concept can provide assistance to controlling the efficiency of protective measures and the characterization of each valley relatively to the floods's risk. Security can be enhanced through the integrated land management. The social sciences may be associated to the operational systems of civil protection, in particular warning networks. The passage of extreme floods in the site of the dam causes the rupture of this structure and important damages downstream the dam. The river bed could be damaged by erosion if it is not well protected. Also, we may encounter some scouring and flooding problems in the downstream area of the dam. Therefore, the protection of the dam is crucial. It must have an energy dissipator in a specific place. The basin of dissipation plays a very important role for the security of the dam and the protection of the environment against floods downstream the dam. It allows to dissipate the potential energy created by the dam with the passage of the extreme flood on the weir and regularize in a natural manner and with more security the discharge or elevation of the water plan on the crest of the weir, also it permits to reduce the speed of the flow downstream the dam, in order to obtain an identical speed to the river bed. The problem of the dimensioning of a classic dissipation basin is in the determination of the necessary parameters for the dimensioning of this structure. This communication presents a simple graphical method, that is fast and complete, and a methodology which determines the main features of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for sizing the classic dissipation basin. This graphical method takes into account the constraints imposed by the reality of the terrain or the practice such as the one related to the topography of the site, the preservation of the environment equilibrium and the technical and economic side.This methodology is to impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump as a hypothesis (free design) to determine all the others parameters of classical dissipation basin. We can impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump that is equal to a selected value or to a certain percentage of the upstream total head created by the dam. With the parameter DH+ =(DH/k),(k: critical depth),the elaborate graphical representation allows to find the other parameters, the multiplication of these parameters by k gives the main characteristics of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for the dimensioning of classic dissipation basin.This solution is often preferred for sizing the dissipation basins of small concrete dams. The results verification and their comparison to practical data, confirm the validity and reliability of the elaborate graphical method.

Keywords: dimensioning, energy dissipation basin, hydraulic jump, protection of the environment

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3475 Governing Ecosystem Services for Poverty Reduction: Empirical Evidences from Purulia District, India

Authors: Soma Sarkar

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A number of authors have recently argued that there are strong links between ecosystem services and sustainable development, particularly development efforts that aim to reduce rural poverty. We see two distinct routes by which the science of ecosystem services can contribute to both nature conservation and sustainable development. First, a thorough accounting of ecosystem services and a better understanding of how and at what rates ecosystems produce these services can be used to motivate payment for nature conservation. At least part of the generated funds can be used to compensate people who suffer lost economic opportunities to protect these services. For example, if rural poor are asked to take actions that reduce farm productivity to protect and regulate water supply, those farmers could be compensated for the reduced productivity they experience. When the benefits of natural ecosystems are explicitly quantified, those benefits are more valued both by the people who directly interact with the ecosystems and the governmental and other agencies that would have to pay for substitute sources of these services if these ecosystems should become impaired. Appreciating the value of ecosystem services can motivate increased conservation investment to prevent having to pay for substitutes later. This approach could be characterized as a ‘‘government investment’’ approach because the payments will generally come from beneficiaries outside of the local area, and a governmental or other agency is typically responsible for collecting and redistributing the funds. Second, a focus on the conservation of ecosystem services could improve the success of projects that attempt to both conserve nature and improve the welfare of the rural poor by fostering markets for the goods and services that local people produce or extract from ecosystems. These projects could be characterized as more ‘‘community based’’ because the goal is to foster the more organic, or grassroots, development of cottage industries, such as ecotourism, or the production of non-timber forest products, that are enhanced by better protection of local ecosystems. Using this framework, we discuss the factors that may have contributed to failure or success for several projects in the district of Purulia, one of the most backward districts of India and inhabited by indigenous group of people. A large majority of people in this district are dependent on environment based incomes for their sustenance. The erosion of natural resource base owing to poor governance in the district has led to the reductions in the household incomes of these people. The scale of our analysis is local or project level. The plight of poor has little to do with the production functions of ecosystem services. But for rural poor, at the local level, the status of ecosystem services can make a big difference in their daily lives.

Keywords: ecosystem services, governance, rural poor, community based natural resource management

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3474 Machine Learning Algorithms for Rocket Propulsion

Authors: Rômulo Eustáquio Martins de Souza, Paulo Alexandre Rodrigues de Vasconcelos Figueiredo

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In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in applying artificial intelligence techniques, particularly machine learning algorithms. Machine learning is a data-analysis technique that automates the creation of analytical models, making it especially useful for designing complex situations. As a result, this technology aids in reducing human intervention while producing accurate results. This methodology is also extensively used in aerospace engineering since this is a field that encompasses several high-complexity operations, such as rocket propulsion. Rocket propulsion is a high-risk operation in which engine failure could result in the loss of life. As a result, it is critical to use computational methods capable of precisely representing the spacecraft's analytical model to guarantee its security and operation. Thus, this paper describes the use of machine learning algorithms for rocket propulsion to aid the realization that this technique is an efficient way to deal with challenging and restrictive aerospace engineering activities. The paper focuses on three machine-learning-aided rocket propulsion applications: set-point control of an expander-bleed rocket engine, supersonic retro-propulsion of a small-scale rocket, and leak detection and isolation on rocket engine data. This paper describes the data-driven methods used for each implementation in depth and presents the obtained results.

Keywords: data analysis, modeling, machine learning, aerospace, rocket propulsion

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3473 Evaluation of Antarctic Bacteria as Potential Producers of Cellulolytic Enzymes of Industrial Interest

Authors: Claudio Lamilla, Andrés Santos, Vicente Llanquinao, Jocelyn Hermosilla, Leticia Barrientos

Abstract:

The industry in general is very interested in improving and optimizing industrial processes in order to reduce the costs involved in obtaining raw materials and production. Thus, an interesting and cost-effective alternative is the incorporation of bioactive metabolites in such processes, being an example of this enzymes which catalyze efficiently a large number of enzymatic reactions of industrial and biotechnological interest. In the search for new sources of these active metabolites, Antarctica is one of the least explored places on our planet where the most drastic cold conditions, salinity, UVA-UVB and liquid water available are present, features that have shaped all life in this very harsh environment, especially bacteria that live in different Antarctic ecosystems, which have had to develop different strategies to adapt to these conditions, producing unique biochemical strategies. In this work the production of cellulolytic enzymes of seven bacterial strains isolated from marine sediments at different sites in the Antarctic was evaluated. Isolation of the strains was performed using serial dilutions in the culture medium at M115°C. The identification of the strains was performed using universal primers (27F and 1492R). The enzyme activity assays were performed on R2A medium, carboxy methyl cellulose (CMC)was added as substrate. Degradation of the substrate was revealed by adding Lugol. The results show that four of the tested strains produce enzymes which degrade CMC substrate. The molecular identifications, showed that these bacteria belong to the genus Streptomyces and Pseudoalteromonas, being Streptomyces strain who showed the highest activity. Only some bacteria in marine sediments have the ability to produce these enzymes, perhaps due to their greater adaptability to degrade at temperatures bordering zero degrees Celsius, some algae that are abundant in this environment and have cellulose as the main structure. The discovery of new enzymes adapted to cold is of great industrial interest, especially for paper, textiles, detergents, biofuels, food and agriculture. These enzymes represent 8% of industrial demand worldwide and is expected to increase their demand in the coming years. Mainly in the paper and food industry are required in extraction processes starch, protein and juices, as well as the animal feed industry where treating vegetables and grains helps improve the nutritional value of the food, all this clearly puts Antarctic microorganisms and their enzymes specifically as a potential contribution to industry and the novel biotechnological applications.

Keywords: antarctic, bacteria, biotechnological, cellulolytic enzymes

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3472 Assessment of Rock Masses Performance as a Support of Lined Rock Cavern for Isothermal Compressed Air Energy Storage

Authors: Vathna Suy, Ki-Il Song

Abstract:

In order to store highly pressurized gas such as an isothermal compressed air energy storage, Lined Rock Caverns (LRC) are constructed underground and supported by layers of concrete, steel and rock masses. This study aims to numerically investigate the performance of rock masses which serve as a support of Lined Rock Cavern subjected to high cyclic pressure loadings. FLAC3D finite different software is used for the simulation since the software can effectively model the behavior of concrete lining and steel plate with its built-in structural elements. Cyclic pressure loadings are applied onto the inner surface of the cavern which then transmitted to concrete, steel and eventually to the surrounding rock masses. Changes of stress and strain are constantly monitored throughout all the process of loading operations. The results at various monitoring locations are then extracted and analyzed to assess the response of the rock masses, specifically on its ability to absorb energy during loadings induced by the changes of cyclic pressure loadings inside the cavern. By analyzing the obtained data of stress-strain relation and taking into account the behavior of materials under the effect of strain-dependency, conclusions on the performance of rock masses subjected to high cyclic loading conditions are drawn.

Keywords: cyclic loading, FLAC3D, lined rock cavern (LRC), strain-dependency

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
3471 Optimization and Evaluation of Different Pathways to Produce Biofuel from Biomass

Authors: Xiang Zheng, Zhaoping Zhong

Abstract:

In this study, Aspen Plus was used to simulate the whole process of biomass conversion to liquid fuel in different ways, and the main results of material and energy flow were obtained. The process optimization and evaluation were carried out on the four routes of cellulosic biomass pyrolysis gasification low-carbon olefin synthesis olefin oligomerization, biomass water pyrolysis and polymerization to jet fuel, biomass fermentation to ethanol, and biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuel. The environmental impacts of three biomass species (poplar wood, corn stover, and rice husk) were compared by the gasification synthesis pathway. The global warming potential, acidification potential, and eutrophication potential of the three biomasses were the same as those of rice husk > poplar wood > corn stover. In terms of human health hazard potential and solid waste potential, the results were poplar > rice husk > corn stover. In the popular pathway, 100 kg of poplar biomass was input to obtain 11.9 kg of aviation coal fraction and 6.3 kg of gasoline fraction. The energy conversion rate of the system was 31.6% when the output product energy included only the aviation coal product. In the basic process of hydrothermal depolymerization process, 14.41 kg aviation kerosene was produced per 100 kg biomass. The energy conversion rate of the basic process was 33.09%, which can be increased to 38.47% after the optimal utilization of lignin gasification and steam reforming for hydrogen production. The total exergy efficiency of the system increased from 30.48% to 34.43% after optimization, and the exergy loss mainly came from the concentration of precursor dilute solution. Global warming potential in environmental impact is mostly affected by the production process. Poplar wood was used as raw material in the process of ethanol production from cellulosic biomass. The simulation results showed that 827.4 kg of pretreatment mixture, 450.6 kg of fermentation broth, and 24.8 kg of ethanol were produced per 100 kg of biomass. The power output of boiler combustion reached 94.1 MJ, the unit power consumption in the process was 174.9 MJ, and the energy conversion rate was 33.5%. The environmental impact was mainly concentrated in the production process and agricultural processes. On the basis of the original biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuel, the enzymatic hydrolysis lignin residue produced by cellulose fermentation to produce ethanol was used as the pyrolysis raw material, and the fermentation and pyrolysis processes were coupled. In the coupled process, 24.8 kg ethanol and 4.78 kg upgraded liquid fuel were produced per 100 kg biomass with an energy conversion rate of 35.13%.

Keywords: biomass conversion, biofuel, process optimization, life cycle assessment

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3470 Industrial Applications of Additive Manufacturing and 3D Printing Technology: A Review from South Africa Perspective

Authors: Micheal O. Alabi

Abstract:

Additive manufacturing (AM) is the official industry standard term (ASTM F2792) for all applications of the technology which is also known as 3D printing technology. It is defined as the process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model data, and it is usually layer upon layer, as opposed to subtractive manufacturing methodologies. This technology has gained significant interest within the academic, research institute and industry because of its ability to create complex geometries with customizable material properties. Despite the late adoption of the technology, additive manufacturing has been active in South Africa for past 21 years and it is predicted that additive manufacturing technology will play a significant and game-changing role in the fourth industrial revolution and in particular it promises to play an ever-growing role in efforts to re-industrialize the economy of South Africa. At the end of 2006, there are approximately ninety 3D printers in South Africa and in 2015 it was estimated that there are 3500 additive manufacturing systems and 3D printers in circulation in South Africa. A reasonable number of these additive manufacturing machines are in the high end of the market, in science councils and higher education institutions and this shows that the future of additive manufacturing in South Africa is very brighter compared to other African countries. This paper reviews the past and current industrial applications of additive manufacturing in South Africa from the academic research and industry perspective and what are the benefits of this technology to manufacturing companies and industrial sectors in the country.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, 3D printing technology, industrial applications, manufacturing

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3469 Antimicrobial Activity, Phytochemistry and Toxicity Of Extracts Of Naturally Growing and Cultivated Aloe Turkanensis

Authors: Zachary Muthii Rukenya, James Mbaria, Peter Mbaabu, Kiama Stephen Gitahi, Ronald Onzago

Abstract:

Aloe turkanensis is one of the widely used medicinal shrub and in Kenya the plant is mainly found in Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia, Turkana and West Pokot Counties where it is used in ethno-medicine and ethno-veterinary medicine. The Turkana community uses the plant products to manage malaria, wounds, stomach ache, constipation, pain, skin infection, poultry diseases and retained afterbirth in cows. This evaluated the efficacy and safety of the plant obtained from Turkana County, Kenya. Preliminary data on the use of the plant in the county was collected through observation, photographing and interviews. A sample of the whole plant was harvested in Natira sublocation, in ex-Turkana west district in February 2012 after identification by Aloe-working group herbalists who voluntarily provided information on its medicinal uses. Botanical identification was done at Kenya Forest Research Centre in Karura where voucher specimen was deposited. Cold maceration using 70% methanol and distilled water was used for extraction. Bioassays were to determine the effects of the plant extracts on brine shrimp and selected bacterial and fungal cultures. The extracts were tested in-vitro activity against standard cultures of B. cereus (ATCC 11778), S. aureus (ATCC25923), P. aeroginosa (ATCC 27853), E. coli (ATCC 25922) and a human infections clinical isolate of C. albicans. The extracts of Aloe turkanensis inhibited the growth B. cereus (100-200 mg/ml), S. aureus (50-100 mg/ml), P. aeroginosa (200mg/ml), E. coli (400mg/ml) while C. albicans was not affected. The extracts also inhibited the growth of S. aureus and B. cereus with mean diameters of inhibition zones being 19.75±1 mm and 18.5±05 mm reapectively. Phytochemical screening showed the presence of alkaloids, tarpenoids, steroids, quinones, saponins and tannins in the plant extracts. The extract was found to be non-toxic at a concentration of 1000µg/ml with a 100% survival of Brine Shrimp larva. It was concluded that Aloe turkanensis growing the study area has metabolites that inhibit the growth of microorganisms and is however, there is need for further studies to validate the in-vivo bioactivity of the plant and more generate adequate toxicological data.to support conservation, value chain addition of its products and widespread use as a herbal remedy.

Keywords: Aloe turkanensis, bioactivity, cultivated, human infections

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
3468 A Quasi Z-Source Based Full Bridge Isolated DC-DC Converter as a Power Module for PV System Connected to HVDC Grid

Authors: Xinke Huang, Huan Wang, Lidong Guo, Changbin Ju, Runbiao Liu, Guoen Cao, Yibo Wang, Honghua Xu

Abstract:

Grid connected photovoltaic (PV) power system is to be developed in the direction of large-scale, clustering. Large-scale PV generation systems connected to HVDC grid have many advantages compared to its counterpart of AC grid, and DC connection is the tendency. DC/DC converter as the most important device in the system, has become one of the hot spots recently. The paper proposes a Quasi Z-Source(QZS) based Boost Full Bridge Isolated DC/DC Converter(BFBIC) topology as a basis power module and combination through input parallel output series(IPOS) method to improve power capacity and output voltage to match with the HVDC grid. The topology has both traditional voltage source and current source advantages, it permit the H-bridge short through and open circuit, which adopt utility duty cycle control and achieved input current and output voltage balancing through input current sharing control strategy. A ±10kV/200kW system model is built in MATLAB/SIMULINK to verify the proposed topology and control strategy.

Keywords: PV Generation System, Cascaded DC/DC converter, HVDC, Quasi Z Source Converter

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3467 The Stability of Vegetable-Based Synbiotic Drink during Storage

Authors: Camelia Vizireanu, Daniela Istrati, Alina Georgiana Profir, Rodica Mihaela Dinica

Abstract:

Globally, there is a great interest in promoting the consumption of fruit and vegetables to improve health. Due to the content of essential compounds such as antioxidants, important amounts of fruits and vegetables should be included in the daily diet. Juices are good sources of vitamins and can also help increase overall fruit and vegetable consumption. Starting from this trend (introduction into the daily diet of vegetables and fruits) as well as the desire to diversify the range of functional products for both adults and children, a fermented juice was made using probiotic microorganisms based on root vegetables, with potential beneficial effects in the diet of children, vegetarians and people with lactose intolerance. The three vegetables selected for this study, red beet, carrot, and celery bring a significant contribution to functional compounds such as carotenoids, flavonoids, betalain, vitamin B and C, minerals and fiber. By fermentation, the functional value of the vegetable juice increases due to the improved stability of these compounds. The combination of probiotic microorganisms and vegetable fibers resulted in a nutrient-rich synbiotic product. The stability of the nutritional and sensory qualities of the obtained synbiotic product has been tested throughout its shelf life. The evaluation of the physico-chemical changes of the synbiotic drink during storage confirmed that: (i) vegetable juice enriched with honey and vegetable pulp is an important source of nutritional compounds, especially carbohydrates and fiber; (ii) microwave treatment used to inhibit pathogenic microflora did not significantly affect nutritional compounds in vegetable juice, vitamin C concentration remained at baseline and beta-carotene concentration increased due to increased bioavailability; (iii) fermentation has improved the nutritional quality of vegetable juice by increasing the content of B vitamins, polyphenols and flavonoids and has a good antioxidant capacity throughout the shelf life; (iv) the FTIR and Raman spectra have highlighted the results obtained using physicochemical methods. Based on the analysis of IR absorption frequencies, the most striking bands belong to the frequencies 3330 cm⁻¹, 1636 cm⁻¹ and 1050 cm⁻¹, specific for groups of compounds such as polyphenols, carbohydrates, fatty acids, and proteins. Statistical data processing revealed a good correlation between the content of flavonoids, betalain, β-carotene, ascorbic acid and polyphenols, the fermented juice having a stable antioxidant activity. Also, principal components analysis showed that there was a negative correlation between the evolution of the concentration of B vitamins and antioxidant activity. Acknowledgment: This study has been founded by the Francophone University Agency, Project Réseau régional dans le domaine de la santé, la nutrition et la sécurité alimentaire (SaIN), No. at Dunarea de Jos University of Galati 21899/ 06.09.2017 and by the Sectorial Operational Programme Human Resources Development of the Romanian Ministry of Education, Research, Youth and Sports trough the Financial Agreement POSDRU/159/1.5/S/132397 ExcelDOC.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, fermentation, synbiotic drink from vegetables, stability during storage

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3466 Analysis of Impact of Air Pollution over Megacity Delhi Due to Agricultural Biomass Burning in the Neighbouring States

Authors: Ankur P. Sati, Manju Mohan

Abstract:

The hazardous combination of smoke and pollutant gases, smog, is harmful for health. There are strong evidences that the Agricultural waste burning (AWB) in the Northern India leads to adverse air quality in Delhi and its surrounding regions. A severe smog episode was observed over Delhi, India during November 2012 which resulted in very low visibility and various respiratory problems. Very high values of pollutants (PM10 as high as 989 µg m-3, PM2.5 as high as 585 µg m-3 an NO2 as high as 540 µg m-3) were measured all over Delhi during the smog episode. Ultra Violet Aerosol Index (UVAI) from Aura satellite and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) are used in the present study along with the output trajectories from HYSPLIT model and the in-situ data. Satellite data also reveal that AOD, UVAI are always at its highest during the farmfires duration in Punjab region of India and the extent of these farmfires may be increasing. It is observed that during the smog episode all the AOD, UVAI, PM2.5 and PM10 values surpassed those of the Diwali period (one of the most polluted events in the city) by a considerable amount at all stations across Delhi. The parameters used from the remote sensing data and the ground based observations at various stations across Delhi are very well in agreement about the intensity of Smog episode. The analysis clearly shows that regional pollution can have greater contributions in deteriorating the air quality than the local under adverse meteorological conditions.

Keywords: smog, farmfires, AOD, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
3465 Determining the Functionality of Urban Wildlife with Large Megafauna: A Case Study from Chobe District, Northern Botswana

Authors: Tempe S. F. Adams, Michael J. Chase, Tracey L. Rogers, Keith E. A. Leggett

Abstract:

Transfrontier wildlife corridors can be successful conservation tools, connecting protected areas and reducing the impact of habitat fragmentation on mobile species. Urban wildlife corridors have been proposed as a potential mitigation tool to facilitate the passage of elephants through towns without causing conflict with urban communities. However, because such corridors are typically narrow and close to human development, wildlife (particularly large mammals) may be less likely to use them. We used remote-sensor camera traps and global positioning system collars to identify the movement patterns of African elephants Loxondonta africana through narrow, urban corridors in Botswana. The corridors were in three types of human-dominated land-use designations with varying levels of human activity: agricultural, industrial and open space recreational land. We found that elephants used the corridors within all three land-use designations and we identified, using a model selection approach, that season, time of day and rainfall were important factors in determining the presence of elephants in the corridors. Elephants moved more slowly through the narrow corridors compared with their movement patterns through broader, wide-ranging corridors. Our results indicate that urban wildlife corridors are useful for facilitating elephants to pass through urban areas.

Keywords: camera traps, conservation, human-elephant coexistence, land management, urban wildlife corridors

Procedia PDF Downloads 293
3464 Random Forest Classification for Population Segmentation

Authors: Regina Chua

Abstract:

To reduce the costs of re-fielding a large survey, a Random Forest classifier was applied to measure the accuracy of classifying individuals into their assigned segments with the fewest possible questions. Given a long survey, one needed to determine the most predictive ten or fewer questions that would accurately assign new individuals to custom segments. Furthermore, the solution needed to be quick in its classification and usable in non-Python environments. In this paper, a supervised Random Forest classifier was modeled on a dataset with 7,000 individuals, 60 questions, and 254 features. The Random Forest consisted of an iterative collection of individual decision trees that result in a predicted segment with robust precision and recall scores compared to a single tree. A random 70-30 stratified sampling for training the algorithm was used, and accuracy trade-offs at different depths for each segment were identified. Ultimately, the Random Forest classifier performed at 87% accuracy at a depth of 10 with 20 instead of 254 features and 10 instead of 60 questions. With an acceptable accuracy in prioritizing feature selection, new tools were developed for non-Python environments: a worksheet with a formulaic version of the algorithm and an embedded function to predict the segment of an individual in real-time. Random Forest was determined to be an optimal classification model by its feature selection, performance, processing speed, and flexible application in other environments.

Keywords: machine learning, supervised learning, data science, random forest, classification, prediction, predictive modeling

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3463 A Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equation Model for Financial Bubbles and Crashes with Finite-Time Singularities

Authors: Haowen Xi

Abstract:

We propose and solve exactly a class of non-linear generalization of the Black-Scholes process of stochastic differential equations describing price bubble and crashes dynamics. As a result of nonlinear positive feedback, the faster-than-exponential price positive growth (bubble forming) and negative price growth (crash forming) are found to be the power-law finite-time singularity in which bubbles and crashes price formation ending at finite critical time tc. While most literature on the market bubble and crash process focuses on the nonlinear positive feedback mechanism aspect, very few studies concern the noise level on the same process. The present work adds to the market bubble and crashes literature by studying the external sources noise influence on the critical time tc of the bubble forming and crashes forming. Two main results will be discussed: (1) the analytical expression of expected value of the critical time is found and unexpected critical slowing down due to the coupling external noise is predicted; (2) numerical simulations of the nonlinear stochastic equation is presented, and the probability distribution of Prob(tc) is found to be the inverse gamma function.

Keywords: bubble, crash, finite-time-singular, numerical simulation, price dynamics, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 119