Search results for: optimum farm plans

Authors: Rehan Waheed, Hasan Aftab Saeed, Wasim Tarar, Khalid Mahmood, Sajid Ullah Butt

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Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) shielded doors made from brass extruded channels need to be welded with shielded enclosures to attain optimum shielding performance. Control of welding induced distortion is a problem in welding dissimilar metals like steel and brass. In this research, soldering of the steel-brass joint has been proposed to avoid weld distortion. The material used for brass channel is UNS C36000. The thickness of brass is defined by the manufacturing process, i.e. extrusion. The thickness of shielded enclosure material (ASTM A36) can be varied to produce joint between the dissimilar metals. Steel sections of different gauges are soldered using (91% tin, 9% zinc) solder to the brass, and strength of joint is measured by standard test procedures. It is observed that thin steel sheets produce a stronger bond with brass. The steel sections further require to be welded with shielded enclosure steel sheets through TIG welding process. Stresses and deformation in the vicinity of soldered portion is calculated through FE simulation. Crack formation in soldered area is also studied through experimental work. It has been found that in thin sheets deformation produced due to applied force is localized and has no effect on soldered joint area whereas in thick sheets profound cracks have been observed in soldered joint. The shielding effectiveness of EMI shielded door is compromised due to these cracks. The shielding effectiveness of the specimens is tested and results are compared.

Keywords: dissimilar metal, EMI shielding, joint strength, soldering

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Authors: Tahereh Talebi, Reza Ghomashchi, Pejman Talemi, Sima Aminorroaya

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Electrophoretic deposition (EPD) of p-type Bi₂Te₃ material has been accomplished, and a high quality crack-free thick film has been achieved for thermoelectric (TE) applications. TE generators (TEG) can convert waste heat into electricity, which can potentially solve global warming problems. However, TEG is expensive due to the high cost of materials, as well as the complex and expensive manufacturing process. EPD is a simple and cost-effective method which has been used recently for advanced applications. In EPD, when a DC electric field is applied to the charged powder particles suspended in a suspension, they are attracted and deposited on the substrate with the opposite charge. In this study, it has been shown that it is possible to prepare a TE film using the EPD method and potentially achieve high TE properties at low cost. The relationship between the deposition weight and the EPD-related process parameters, such as applied voltage and time, has been investigated and a linear dependence has been observed, which is in good agreement with the theoretical principles of EPD. A stable EPD suspension of p-type Bi₂Te₃ was prepared in a mixture of acetone-ethanol with triethanolamine as a stabilizer. To achieve a high quality homogenous film on a copper substrate, the optimum voltage and time of the EPD process was investigated. The morphology and microstructures of the green deposited films have been investigated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The green Bi₂Te₃ films have shown good adhesion to the substrate. In summary, this study has shown that not only EPD of p-type Bi₂Te₃ material is possible, but its thick film is of high quality for TE applications.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, electrophoretic deposition, mechanical property, p-type Bi2Te3, Seebeck coefficient, thermoelectric materials, thick films

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Authors: Raghad Alhusari, Farag Omar, Moustafa Fadel

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A traditional greenhouse is a metal frame agricultural building used for cultivation plants in a controlled environment isolated from external climatic changes. Using greenhouses in agriculture is an efficient way to reduce the water consumption, where agriculture field is considered the biggest water consumer world widely. Controlling greenhouse environment yields better productivity of plants but demands an increase of electric power. Although various control approaches have been used towards greenhouse automation, most of them are applied to traditional greenhouses with ventilation fans and/or evaporation cooling system. Such approaches are still demanding high energy and water consumption. The aim of this research is to develop a fuzzy control system that minimizes water and energy consumption by utilizing outside weather conditions and underground heat exchanger to maintain the optimum climate of the greenhouse. The proposed control system is implemented on an experimental model of thermally isolated greenhouse structure with dimensions of 6x5x2.8 meters. It uses fans for extracting heat from the ground heat exchanger system, motors for automatic open/close of the greenhouse windows and LED as lighting system. The controller is integrated also with environmental condition sensors. It was found that using the air-to-air horizontal ground heat exchanger with 90 mm diameter and 2 mm thickness placed 2.5 m below the ground surface results in decreasing the greenhouse temperature of 3.28 ˚C which saves around 3 kW of consumed energy. It also eliminated the water consumption needed in evaporation cooling systems which are traditionally used for cooling the greenhouse environment.

Keywords: automation, earth-to-air heat exchangers, fuzzy control, greenhouse, sustainable buildings

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Authors: Mustafa Sertçelik, Turan Çalban, Hacali Necefoğlu, Sabri Çolak

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In this study, Chevreul’s salt solubility and its dissolution kinetics in ammonium chloride solutions were investigated. Chevreul’s salt that we used in the studies was obtained by using the optimum conditions (ammonium sulphide concentration; 0,4 M, copper sulphate concentration; 0,25 M, temperature; 60°C, stirring speed; 600 rev/min, pH; 4 and reaction time; 15 mins) determined by T. Çalban et al. Chevreul’s salt solubility in ammonium chloride solutions and the kinetics of dissolution were investigated. The selected parameters that affect solubility were reaction temperature, concentration of ammonium chloride, stirring speed, and solid/liquid ratio. Correlation of experimental results had been achieved using linear regression implemented in the statistical package program statistica. The effect of parameters on Chevreul’s salt solubility was examined and integrated rate expression of dissolution rate was found using kinetic models in solid-liquid heterogeneous reactions. The results revealed that the dissolution rate of Chevreul’s salt was decreasing while temperature, concentration of ammonium chloride and stirring speed were increasing. On the other hand, dissolution rate was found to be decreasing with the increase of solid/liquid ratio. Based on result of the applications of the obtained experimental results to the kinetic models, we can deduce that Chevreul’s salt dissolution rate is controlled by diffusion through the ash (or product layer). Activation energy of the reaction of dissolution was found as 74.83 kJ/mol. The integrated rate expression along with the effects of parameters on Chevreul's salt solubility was found to be as follows: 1-3(1-X)2/3+2(1-X)= [2,96.1013.(CA)3,08 .(S/L)-038.(W)1,23 e-9001,2/T].t

Keywords: Chevreul's salt, copper, ammonium chloride, ammonium sulphide, dissolution kinetics

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Authors: L. Sasikala, Bhaarathi Dhurai

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Increase in antibiotic resistance bacteria leads to the development of active wound dressings, which absorb any bodily fluid, evaporation of moisture at a certain rate and can be easily removed after healing. Natural materials like chitosan, herbs, and honey have number of active materials present in them to accelerate wound healing and to arrest wound in infections. Hence with the advantages of biomaterials, a film was prepared using chitosan and honey. There are a lot of practical considerations with respect to honey. Honey exerts many beneficial actions on the wound surface only when it remains. The attempts to hold honey on the surface of the wound remain a question because honey becomes a very runny liquid when it comes to body temperature. Hence, this research was focused on development of a new form of wound dressing, by holding honey on the wound surface in different form and also which has a combined effect of manuka (Leptospermum scoparium) honey and chitosan. Chitosan-honey film was prepared using casting technique. Films were prepared in different variations; with acetic acid and with lactic acid; with and without honey. In summary, the film produced from 2% chitosan- 1% lactic acid as a solvent, with 10% honey shows optimum inclined values in all the tests, like thickness, folding endurance, weight, water vapor transmission, tensile strength, swelling ratio and antimicrobial activity, with specific reference to wound dressings. The film has water vapor transmission of 1680 g/m²/day, water absorption of 225%, tensile strength of 39.1N/mm² and elongation of 50.3%. There is a notable inhibition zone of 29 mm against S. aureus and 24 mm against E. coli in the case of chitosan-lactic acid-honey film. The film also arrests, microbes transmitting from the outside environment to wound bed, which can be used as an effective wound dressing material.

Keywords: casting technique, chitosan, honey, film, wound dressings

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Authors: Pooja Mongia Raj, Rakesh Raj, Alpana Ram

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Background: The use of multiparticulate drug delivery systems in preference to single unit dosage forms for colon targeting purposes dates back to 1985 when Hardy and co-workers showed that multiparticulate systems enabled the drug to reach the colon quickly and were retained in the ascending colon for a relatively long period of time. Methods: Site-specific colonic drug delivery system (nanoparticles) of 5-ASA were prepared and coated with pH sensitive polymer. Chitosan nanoparticles (CTNP) bearing 5-Amino salicylic acid (5-ASA) were prepared, by ionotropic gelation method. Nanoparticulate dosage form consisting of a hydrophobic core enteric coated with pH-dependent polymer Eudragit S-100 by solvent evaporation method, for the effective delivery of drug to the colon for treatment of ulcerative colitis. Results: The mean diameter of CTNP and ECTNP formulations were 159 and 661 nm, respectively. Also optimum value of polydispersity index was found to be 0.249 [count rate (kcps) was 251.2] and 0.170 [count rate (kcps) was 173.9] was obtained for both the formulations respectively. Conclusion: CTNP and Eudragit chitosan nanoparticles (ECTNP) was characterized for shape and surface morphology by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) appeared to be spherical in shape. The in vitro drug release was investigated using USP dissolution test apparatus in different simulated GIT fluids showed promising release. In vivo experiments are in further proceeding for fruitful results.

Keywords: colon targeting, nanoparticles, polymer, 5-amino salicylic acid, edragit

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Authors: Yetti Marlida, Harnentis, Yuliaty Shafan Nur

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Background: Tempoyak is a dish derived from fermented durian fruit. Tempoyak is a food consumed as a side dish when eating rice. Besides being eaten with rice, tempoyak can also be eaten directly. But this is rarely done because many cannot stand the sour taste and aroma of the tempoyak itself. In addition, tempoyak can also be used as a seasoning. The taste of tempoyak is acidic, this occurs because of the fermentation process in durian fruit meat which is the raw material. Tempoyak is already very well known in Indonesia, especially in Padang, Bengkulu, Palembang, Lampung, and Kalimantan. Besides that, this food is also famous in Malaysia. The purpose of this research is to improvement production of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) by Lactobacillus plantarum isolated from indigenous fermented durian (tempoyak). Selected Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) previously isolated from indigenous fermented durian (tempoyak) that have ability to produce γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). The study was started with identification of selected LAB by 16 S RNA, followed optimation of GABA production by culture condition using different initial pH, temperature, glutamate concentration, incubation time, carbon and nitrogen sources. Results: The result from indentification used polymerase chain reaction of 16S rRNA gene sequences and phylogenetic analysis was Lactobacillus plantarum (coded as Y3) with a sequenced length of 1400bp. The improvement of Gaba production was found highest at pH: 6.0; temperature: 30 °C; glutamate concentration: 0.4%; incubation time: 60 h; glucose and yeast extract as carbon and nitrogen sources. Conclusions: GABA can be produced with the optimum condition fermentation were 66.06 mM.

Keywords: lactic acid bacteria, γ-amino butyric acid, indigenous fermented durian, PCR

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Bayati Chaleshtari, Hadi Khoramishad

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Minimizing the stress concentration around triangular cutout in infinite perforated plates subjected to a uniform heat flux induces thermal stresses is an important consideration in engineering design. Furthermore, understanding the effective parameters on stress concentration and proper selection of these parameters enables the designer to achieve a reliable design. In the analysis of thermal stress, the effective parameters on stress distribution around cutout include fiber angle, flux angle, bluntness and rotation angle of the cutout for orthotropic materials. This paper was tried to examine effect of these parameters on thermal stress analysis of infinite perforated plates with central triangular cutout. In order to achieve the least amount of thermal stress around a triangular cutout using a novel swarm intelligence optimization technique called dragonfly optimizer that inspired by the life method and hunting behavior of dragonfly in nature. In this study, using the two-dimensional thermoelastic theory and based on the Likhnitskiiʼ complex variable technique, the stress analysis of orthotropic infinite plate with a circular cutout under a uniform heat flux was developed to the plate containing a quasi-triangular cutout in thermal steady state condition. To achieve this goal, a conformal mapping function was used to map an infinite plate containing a quasi- triangular cutout into the outside of a unit circle. The plate is under uniform heat flux at infinity and Neumann boundary conditions and thermal-insulated condition at the edge of the cutout were considered.

Keywords: infinite perforated plate, complex variable method, thermal stress, optimization method

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Authors: Thel Phyu Phyu Soe

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Myanmar started its new political movement in 2011, opening up to trade, encouraging foreign investment, deepening its financial sectors. The tourism is one of the key sectors to make reform process from the perspective of green economy and green growth. The Inle Lake, second largest lake, famous for broad diversity of cultural and natural assets, become one of the country’s main tourism destination. In the study area, local livelihoods are based on a combination of farming (mainly floating garden) wage labor, tourism, and small business. But the Inle lake water body or water surface area decreased by 96.44 km² within 20 years, from 67.98 km² in 1990 to 56.63 km² in 2010. Floating garden cultivation (hydro phonic farm) is a distinguished characteristic of Inle Lake. Two adjacent villages (A and B) were selected to compare the relationship between tourism access and agricultural production. Ground truthing, focus group discussion, and in-depth questionnaires with floating gardeners were carried out. In A village, 57% of the respondents relied tourism as their major income sources, while almost all the households in B village relied floating gardens as major livelihood. Both satellite image interpretation and community studies highlighted that around 80% of the floating garden become fallow after severe drought in 2010 and easy income access to tourism related activities. The villagers can get 20-30 US$ for round trip guiding to major tourist attraction places.Even though tourism is the major livelihood options for the A village, the poorest households (less than 1500 US$ per year) are those who didn’t own transportation property for tourism related activities. In B village, more than 70% of the households relied floating gardens as their major income sources and less participated in tourism related activities because they don’t have motorboat stand connected to the major tourist attraction areas. Access to tourism related activities (having boat stand where they can guide tourists by boat and sell local products and souvenirs) have much impacted on changes in local people livelihood options. However, tourism may have impacts that are beneficial for one group of a society, but which are negative for another. Income inequality and negative impacts can only be managed effectively if they have been identified, measured and evaluated. The severe drought in 2010, instability of lake water level, high expenses for agriculture assisted the local people to participate in easy access tourism related activities.

Keywords: diminishing, floating garden, livelihood, tourism-related income

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Authors: Hussein M. Elmehdi

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In this paper, we present the results of our recent experiments done to examine the effect of air bubbles, which were introduced to bio-samples during preparation, on the rheological properties of soft biological materials. To effectively achieve this, we three samples each prepared with differently. Our soft biological systems comprised of three types of flour dough systems made from different flour varieties with variable protein concentrations. The samples were investigated using ultrasonic waves operated at low frequency in transmission mode. The sample investigated included dough made from bread flour, wheat flour and all-purpose flour. During mixing, the main ingredient of the samples (the flour) was transformed into cohesive dough comprised of the continuous dough matrix and air pebbles. The rheological properties of such materials determine the quality of the end cereal product. Two ultrasonic parameters, the longitudinal velocity and attenuation coefficient were found to be very sensitive to properties such as the size of the occluded bubbles, and hence have great potential of providing quantitative evaluation of the properties of such materials. The results showed that the magnitudes of the ultrasonic velocity and attenuation coefficient peaked at optimum mixing times; the latter of which is taken as an indication of the end of the mixing process. There was an agreement between the results obtained by conventional rheology and ultrasound measurements, thus showing the potential of the use of ultrasound as an on-line quality control technique for dough-based products. The results of this work are explained with respect to the molecular changes occurring in the dough system as the mixing process proceeds; particular emphasis is placed on the presence of free water and bound water.

Keywords: ultrasound, soft biological materials, velocity, attenuation

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Authors: Süleyman Hakan Yilmaz, Yasemin Gülsen Yilmaz

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The Gezi Park protests of 2013 have significantly changed the Turkish agenda and its effects have been felt historically. The protests, which rapidly spread throughout the country, were triggered by the proposal to recreate the Ottoman Army Barracks to function as a shopping mall on Gezi Park located in Istanbul’s Taksim neighbourhood despite the oppositions of several NGOs and when trees were cut in the park for this purpose. Once the news that construction vehicles entered the park on May 27 spread on social media, activists moved into the park to stop the demolition, against whom the police used disproportioned force. With this police intervention and the then prime-minister Tayyip Erdoğan's insistent statements about the construction plans, the protests turned into anti-government demonstrations, which then spread to the rest of the country, mainly in big cities like Ankara and Izmir. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ June 23rd reports, 2.5 million people joined the demonstrations in 79 provinces, that is all of them, except for the provinces of Bayburt and Bingöl, while even more people shared their opinions via social networks. As a result of these events, 8 civilians and 2 security personnel lost their lives, namely police chief Mustafa Sarı, police officer Ahmet Küçükdağ, citizens Mehmet Ayvalıtaş, Abdullah Cömert, Ethem Sarısülük, Ali İsmail Korkmaz, Ahmet Atakan, Berkin Elvan, Burak Can Karamanoğlu, Mehmet İstif, and Elif Çermik, and 8163 more were injured. Besides being a turning point in Turkish history, the Gezi Park protests also had broad repercussions in both in Turkish and in global media, which focused on Turkey throughout the events. Our study conducts content analysis of three Turkish reporting newspapers with varying ideological standpoints, Hürriyet, Cumhuriyet ve Yeni Şafak, in order to reveal their basic approach to columns casting in context of the Gezi Park protests. Columns content relating to the Gezi protests were treated and analysed for this purpose. The aim of this study is to understand the social effects of the Gezi Park protests through media samples with varying political attitudes towards news casting.

Keywords: Gezi Park, media, news casting, columns

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Authors: Sabuj Kanti Mazumder, Mazlan Abd Ghaffar, Simon Kumar Das

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In this study, we analyzed the effects of water temperature and diet on the growth properties and gastric emptying period of juvenile Malabar blood snapper (Lutjanus malabaricus) over a 30day experimental period. Fish were collected from a local hatchery of Pulau Ketam, Selangor, Malaysia and immediately transferred to flow-through sea water system and subjected to four different temperatures (22, 26, 30, and 34 °C) and two diets (formulated pellet and shrimp). Body weight gain, food consumption, food conversion ratio, food consumption efficiency, specific growth rate, relative growth rate, daily growth rate, and gastric emptying period were significantly influenced by temperature and diet (P<0.05). The best food conversion ratio was with the shrimp group recorded at 30°C (1.33±0.08). The highest growth rate was observed in the shrimp group at 30°C (3.97±0.57% day-1), and the lowest was observed in the formulated pellet group at 22°C (1.63±0.29% day-1). No significant difference was observed between the groups subjected to temperatures of 26 and 30°C. Similarly, the lowest gastric emptying period was detected in the shrimp group at 30°C (16h), where the proportion of meal residues in the stomach decreased from 100% to less than 8% after 12h of starvation. A significantly longer gastric emptying period was observed in the formulated pellet group at 22°C (28h). Overall, the best results were observed on shrimp group subjected to a 30°C temperature. The data obtained from this study suggest that a shrimp diet fed on L. malabaricus at 30°C will optimize the commercial production of this commercially important fish species.

Keywords: aquaculture, diet, digestion rate, growth, Malabar blood snapper

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Authors: Zainab Bibi, Afsheen Aman, Shah Ali Ul Qader

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Endo-β-1,4-xylanases [EC 3.2.1.8] are one of the major groups of enzymes that are involved in degradation process of xylan and have several applications in food, textile and paper processing industries. Due to broad utility of endo-β-1,4-xylanase, researchers are focusing to increase the productivity of this hydrolase from various microbial species. Harsh industrial condition, faster reaction rate and efficient hydrolysis of xylan with low risk of contamination are critical requirements of industry that can be fulfilled by synthesizing the enzyme with efficient properties. In the current study, a newly isolated thermophile Geobacillus stearothermophilus KIBGE-IB29 was used in order to attain the maximum production of endo-1,4-β-xylanase. Bacterial culture was isolated from soil, collected around the blast furnace site of a steel processing mill, Karachi. Optimization of various nutritional and physical factors resulted the maximum synthesis of endo-1,4-β-xylanase from a thermophile. High production yield was achieved at 60°C and pH-6.0 after 24 hours of incubation period. Various nitrogen sources viz. peptone, yeast extract and meat extract improved the enzyme synthesis with 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.1% optimum concentrations. Dipotassium hydrogen phosphate (0.25%), potassium dihydrogen phosphate (0.05%), ammonium sulfate (0.05%) and calcium chloride (0.01%) were noticed as valuable salts to improve the production of enzyme. The thermophilic nature of isolate, with its broad pH stability profile and reduced fermentation time indicates its importance for effective xylan saccharification and for large scale production of endo-1,4-β-xylanase.

Keywords: geobacillus, optimization, production, xylanase

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Authors: Rahul Kumar, Pavuluri Srinivasa Rao

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This study investigates the effect of ultrasound-assisted high pressure (HP) treatment on the soaking characteristic of soybeans and extracted soy milk quality. The soybean (variety) was subjected to sonication (US) at ambient temperature for 15 and 30 min followed by HP treatment in the range of 200-400 MPa for dwell times 5-10 min. The bean samples were also compared with HPP samples (200-400 MPa; 5-10 mins), overnight soaked samples(12-15 h) and thermal treated samples (100°C/30 min) followed by overnight soaking for 12-15 h soaking. Rapid soaking within 40 min was achieved by the combined US-HPP treatment, and it reduced the soaking time by about 25 times in comparison to overnight soaking or thermal treatment followed by soaking. Reducing the soaking time of soybeans is expected to suppress the development of undesirable beany flavor of soy milk developed during normal soaking milk extraction. The optimum moisture uptake by the sonicated-pressure treated soybeans was 60-62% (w.b) similar to that obtained after overnight soaking for 12-15 h or thermal treatment followed by overnight soaking. pH of soy milk was not much affected by the different US-HPP treatments and overnight soaking which centered around the range of 6.6-6.7 much like the normal cow milk. For milk extracted from thermally treated soy samples, pH reduced to 6.2. Total soluble solids were found to be maximum for the normal overnight soaked soy samples, and it was in the range of 10.3-10.6. For the HPP treated soy milk, the TSS reduced to 7.4 while sonication further reduced it to 6.2. TSS was found to be getting reduced with increasing time of ultrasonication. Further reduction in TSS to 2.3 was observed in soy milk produced from thermally treated samples following overnight soaking. Our results conclude that thermally treated beans' milk is less stable and more acidic, soaking is very rapid compared to overnight soaking hence milk productivity can be enhanced with less development of undesirable beany flavor.

Keywords: beany flavor, high pressure processing, high pressure, soybean, soaking, milk, ultrasound, wet basis

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Authors: Tadele Tesfay Teame, Tsegaye Abrehame, Hágen István Zsombor

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Liquidity is one of the main concerns for banks, and thus achieving the optimum level of liquidity is critical. The main objective of this study is to discover the driving force of selected private commercial banks’ liquidity. In order to achieve the objective explanatory research design and quantitative research approach were used. Data has been collected from a secondary source of the sampled Ethiopian private commercial banks’ financial statements, the National Bank of Ethiopia, and the Minister of Finance, the sample covering the period from 2011 to 2022. Bank-specific and macroeconomic variables were analyzed by using the balanced panel fixed effect regression model. Bank’s liquidity ratio is measured by the total liquid asset to total deposits. The findings of the study revealed that bank size, capital adequacy, loan growth rate, and non-performing loan had a statistically significant impact on private commercial banks’ liquidity, and annual inflation rate and interest rate margin had a statistically significant impact on the liquidity of Ethiopian private commercial banks measured by L1 (bank liquidity). Thus, banks in Ethiopia should not only be concerned about internal structures and policies/procedures, but they must consider both the internal environment and the macroeconomic environment together in developing their strategies to efficiently manage their liquidity position and private commercial banks to maintain their financial proficiency shall have bank liquidity management policy by assimilating both bank-specific and macro-economic variables.

Keywords: liquidity, Ethiopian private commercial banks, liquidity ratio, panel data regression analysis

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Authors: Elena Kalcheva, Ahmad Taki, Yuri Hadi

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Urban regeneration often includes residential high-rises as a way of optimum use of land. However, high-rises are in many cases connected to placelessness, this is not due to some intrinsic characteristic of the typology, but more to a failure to provide meaningful places in connection to them. The reason to study the Isle of the Dogs regeneration is the successful process that led to vibrant area with strong identity and social sustainability. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify the gaps into the sound strategy for the development of the area and in its implementation which will make the place more sustainable. The paper addresses four research questions: are the residential high-rises supporting a proper physical form; is there deployed properly scaled mix of land uses and functions in connection with residential high-rises; are there possible quality activities in quality places near the residential high-rises; and is there a strong sense of place created with the residential high-rise buildings and their surroundings. The methodology relies on observational survey of the researched area together with structured questions, to evaluate the external qualities of the residential high-rises and their surroundings. Visual information can help identify the mistakes and the omissions of the provided project examples. It can provide insight on how can be improved imageability, legibility and human scale. In this connection, the paper argues that although the quality of the architecture of the high-rises is superb, there is a failure to create meaningful, high quality public realm in connection with them. As such, it does not function as well as the designers intended to do: the functional quality of the public realm is quite low. The implications of the study suggest that actions need to take place in order to improve and foster further regeneration of the area.

Keywords: high-rises, isle of the dogs, public realm, regeneration

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Authors: Wassim Jerbi, Abderrahmen Guermazi, Hafedh Trabelsi

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The optimum use of coverage in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is very important. LEACH protocol called Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy, presents a hierarchical clustering algorithm for wireless sensor networks. LEACH is a protocol that allows the formation of distributed cluster. In each cluster, LEACH randomly selects some sensor nodes called cluster heads (CHs). The selection of CHs is made with a probabilistic calculation. It is supposed that each non-CH node joins a cluster and becomes a cluster member. Nevertheless, some CHs can be concentrated in a specific part of the network. Thus, several sensor nodes cannot reach any CH. to solve this problem. We created an O-LEACH Orphan nodes protocol, its role is to reduce the sensor nodes which do not belong the cluster. The cluster member called Gateway receives messages from neighboring orphan nodes. The gateway informs CH having the neighboring nodes that not belong to any group. However, Gateway called (CH') attaches the orphaned nodes to the cluster and then collected the data. O-Leach enables the formation of a new method of cluster, leads to a long life and minimal energy consumption. Orphan nodes possess enough energy and seeks to be covered by the network. The principal novel contribution of the proposed work is O-LEACH protocol which provides coverage of the whole network with a minimum number of orphaned nodes and has a very high connectivity rates.As a result, the WSN application receives data from the entire network including orphan nodes. The proper functioning of the Application requires, therefore, management of intelligent resources present within each the network sensor. The simulation results show that O-LEACH performs better than LEACH in terms of coverage, connectivity rate, energy and scalability.

Keywords: WSNs; routing; LEACH; O-LEACH; Orphan nodes; sub-cluster; gateway; CH’

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Authors: Charles St. Geste, Michael Neumann, Catherine Twohig

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Our primary aim is to examine farmer-centered participatory action learning as a tool to improve agricultural production, build resilience to climate shocks and, more broadly, advance community-driven solutions for sustainable development in rural communities across Haiti. For over six years, sixty plus farmers from Deslandes, Haiti, organized in three traditional work groups called konbits, have designed and tested low-input agroecology techniques as part of the Konbit Vanyan Kapab Pwoje Agroekoloji. The project utilizes a participatory action learning approach, emphasizing social inclusion, building on local knowledge, experiential learning, active farmer participation in trial design and evaluation, and cross-community sharing. Mixed methods were used to evaluate changes in knowledge and adoption of agroecology techniques, confidence in advancing agroecology locally, and innovation among Konbit Vanyan Kapab farmers. While skill and knowledge in application of agroecology techniques varied among individual farmers, a majority of farmers successfully adopted techniques outside of the trial farms. The use of agroecology techniques on trial and individual farms has doubled crop production in many cases. Farm income has also increased, and farmers report less damage to crops and property caused by extreme weather events. Furthermore, participatory action strategies have led to greater local self-determination and greater capacity for sustainable community development. With increased self-confidence and the knowledge and skills acquired from participating in the project, farmers prioritized sharing their successful techniques with other farmers and have developed a farmer-to-farmer training program that incorporates participatory action learning. Using adult education methods, farmers, trained as agroecology educators, are currently providing training in sustainable farming practices to farmers from five villages in three departments across Haiti. Konbit Vanyan Kapab farmers have also begun testing production of value-added food products, including a dried soup mix and tea. Key factors for success include: opportunities for farmers to actively participate in all phases of the project, group diversity, resources for application of agroecology techniques, focus on group processes and overcoming local barriers to inclusive decision-making.

Keywords: agroecology, participatory action learning, rural Haiti, sustainable community development

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Authors: Muhammad Umar Kiani, Muhammad Shahbaz

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Performance of any vehicle can be predicted by its design/modeling and optimization. Design optimization leads to efficient performance. Followed by horizontal launch, the air launch re-entry vehicle undergoes a launch maneuver by introducing a carefully selected angle of attack profile. This angle of attack profile is the basic element to complete a specified mission. Flight program of said vehicle is optimized under the constraints of the maximum allowed angle of attack, lateral and axial loads and with the objective of reaching maximum altitude. The main focus of this study is the endo-atmospheric phase of the ascent trajectory. A three degrees of freedom trajectory model is simulated in MATLAB. The optimization process uses evolutionary algorithm, because of its robustness and efficient capacity to explore the design space in search of the global optimum. Evolutionary Algorithm based trajectory optimization also offers the added benefit of being a generalized method that may work with continuous, discontinuous, linear, and non-linear performance matrix. It also eliminates the requirement of a starting solution. Optimization is particularly beneficial to achieve maximum advantage without increasing the computational cost and affecting the output of the system. For the case of launch vehicles we are immensely anxious to achieve maximum performance and efficiency under different constraints. In a launch vehicle, flight program means the prescribed variation of vehicle pitching angle during the flight which has substantial influence reachable altitude and accuracy of orbit insertion and aerodynamic loading. Results reveal that the angle of attack profile significantly affects the performance of the vehicle.

Keywords: endo-atmospheric, evolutionary algorithm, efficient performance, optimization process

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Authors: Malalage Mudara Peiris

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Objectives of the study are: the biosynthesis of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) using Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter baumannii and Staphylococcus aureus, characterization of silver nanoparticles and determination of antimicrobial activity against E. coli, P. aeruginosa, S. aureus, MRSA, and C. Albicans. Methods: E. coli (ATCC 25922), A. baumanii (clinical strain), S. aureus (clinical strain) cultured in nutrient broth medium were used for biosynthesis of AgNPs. Culture conditions (AgNO3 concentration, pH, incubation time and temperature) were optimized. Characterization of synthesized NPs was done by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The antimicrobial activity of the synthesized NPs was studied using the good diffusion assay against E. coli, S. aureus, MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus), P. aeruginosa and C. Albicans. Results: All the selected bacteria produced silver nanoparticles at alkaline pH above 0.3 g/L AgNO3 concentration. The optimum reaction temperature was 60oC. According to the UV-Visible spectroscopy, the maximum absorbance was found to be around 420 - 430 nm indicating the presence of AgNPs. According to the good diffusion results, AgNPs produced by S. aureus resulted in the larger zone of inhibition (ZOI) against the selected pathogens, while AgNPs produced by E. coli showed comparatively smaller ZOI. In general, biosynthesized AgNPs were highly effective against gram-negative bacteria compared to gram-positive bacterial and fungal species. Conclusions: Green AgNPs produced by each bacterium show antimicrobial activity against the selected pathogens. AgNPs produced by S. aureus are the most effective NPs among tested AgNPs, while AgNPs produced by E. coli are the least effective. Further characterization of NPs is required to study the physical properties of silver NPs.

Keywords: green nanotechnology, silver nanoparticles, bacteria, antimicrobial activity

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Authors: Soma Sarkar

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A number of authors have recently argued that there are strong links between ecosystem services and sustainable development, particularly development efforts that aim to reduce rural poverty. We see two distinct routes by which the science of ecosystem services can contribute to both nature conservation and sustainable development. First, a thorough accounting of ecosystem services and a better understanding of how and at what rates ecosystems produce these services can be used to motivate payment for nature conservation. At least part of the generated funds can be used to compensate people who suffer lost economic opportunities to protect these services. For example, if rural poor are asked to take actions that reduce farm productivity to protect and regulate water supply, those farmers could be compensated for the reduced productivity they experience. When the benefits of natural ecosystems are explicitly quantified, those benefits are more valued both by the people who directly interact with the ecosystems and the governmental and other agencies that would have to pay for substitute sources of these services if these ecosystems should become impaired. Appreciating the value of ecosystem services can motivate increased conservation investment to prevent having to pay for substitutes later. This approach could be characterized as a ‘‘government investment’’ approach because the payments will generally come from beneficiaries outside of the local area, and a governmental or other agency is typically responsible for collecting and redistributing the funds. Second, a focus on the conservation of ecosystem services could improve the success of projects that attempt to both conserve nature and improve the welfare of the rural poor by fostering markets for the goods and services that local people produce or extract from ecosystems. These projects could be characterized as more ‘‘community based’’ because the goal is to foster the more organic, or grassroots, development of cottage industries, such as ecotourism, or the production of non-timber forest products, that are enhanced by better protection of local ecosystems. Using this framework, we discuss the factors that may have contributed to failure or success for several projects in the district of Purulia, one of the most backward districts of India and inhabited by indigenous group of people. A large majority of people in this district are dependent on environment based incomes for their sustenance. The erosion of natural resource base owing to poor governance in the district has led to the reductions in the household incomes of these people. The scale of our analysis is local or project level. The plight of poor has little to do with the production functions of ecosystem services. But for rural poor, at the local level, the status of ecosystem services can make a big difference in their daily lives.

Keywords: ecosystem services, governance, rural poor, community based natural resource management

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Authors: F. Farzan Nasab, H. J. M. Geijselaers, I. Baran, A. De Boer

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A method is introduced for the coupled skin-rib optimization of a wing box where mass minimization is the objective and local buckling is the constraint. The structure is made of composite materials where continuity of plies in multiple adjacent panels (blending) has to be satisfied. Blending guarantees the manufacturability of the structure; however, it is a highly challenging constraint to treat and has been under debate in recent research in the same area. To fulfill design guidelines with respect to symmetry, balance, contiguity, disorientation and percentage rule of the layup, a reference for the stacking sequences (stacking sequence table or SST) is generated first. Then, an innovative fully gradient-based optimization approach in relation to a specific SST is introduced to obtain the optimum thickness distribution all over the structure while blending is fulfilled. The proposed optimization approach aims to turn the discrete optimization problem associated with the integer number of plies into a continuous one. As a result of a wing box deflection, a rib is subjected to load values which vary nonlinearly with the amount of deflection. The bending stiffness of a skin affects the wing box deflection and thus affects the load applied to a rib. This indicates the necessity of a coupled skin-rib optimization approach for a more realistic optimized design. The proposed method is examined with the optimization of the layup of a composite stiffened skin and rib of a wing torsion box subjected to in-plane normal and shear loads. Results show that the method can successfully prescribe a valid design with a significantly cheap computation cost.

Keywords: blending, buckling optimization, composite panels, wing torsion box

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Authors: Ogemdi Chinwendu Anika, Anna Strzelecka, Yadira Bajón-Fernández, Raffaella Villa

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Anaerobic digestion (AD) has been used since time in memorial to take care of organic wastes in the environment, especially for sewage and wastewater treatments. Recently, the rising demand/need to increase renewable energy from organic matter has caused the AD substrates spectrum to expand and include a wider variety of organic materials such as agricultural residues and farm manure which is annually generated at around 140 billion metric tons globally. The problem, however, is that agricultural wastes are composed of materials that are heterogeneous and too difficult to degrade -particularly lignin, that make up about 0–40% of the total lignocellulose content. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of varying concentrations of lignin on biogas yields and their subsequent response to a commercial yeast-based bioadditive in batch anaerobic digesters. The experiments were carried out in batches for a retention time of 56 days with different lignin concentrations (200 mg, 300 mg, 400 mg, 500 mg, and 600 mg) treated to different conditions to first determine the concentration of the bioadditive that was most optimal for overall process improvement and yields increase. The batch experiments were set up using 130 mL bottles with a working volume of 60mL, maintained at 38°C in an incubator shaker (150rpm). Digestate obtained from a local plant operating at mesophilic conditions was used as the starting inoculum, and commercial kraft lignin was used as feedstock. Biogas measurements were carried out using the displacement method and were corrected to standard temperature and pressure using standard gas equations. Furthermore, the modified Gompertz equation model was used to non-linearly regress the resulting data to estimate gas production potential, production rates, and the duration of lag phases as indicatives of degrees of lignin inhibition. The results showed that lignin had a strong inhibitory effect on the AD process, and the higher the lignin concentration, the more the inhibition. Also, the modelling showed that the rates of gas production were influenced by the concentrations of the lignin substrate added to the system – the higher the lignin concentrations in mg (0, 200, 300, 400, 500, and 600) the lower the respective rate of gas production in ml/gVS.day (3.3, 2.2, 2.3, 1.6, 1.3, and 1.1), although the 300 mg increased by 0.1 ml/gVS.day over that of the 200 mg. The impact of the yeast-based bioaddition on the rate of production was most significant in the 400 mg and 500 mg as the rate was improved by 0.1 ml/gVS.day and 0.2 ml/gVS.day respectively. This indicates that agricultural residues with higher lignin content may be more responsive to inhibition alleviation by yeast-based bioadditive; therefore, further study on its application to the AD of agricultural residues of high lignin content will be the next step in this research.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, renewable energy, lignin valorisation, biogas

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Authors: Naser Valipour Motlagh, Majid Aliabadi, Elnaz Rahmani, Samira Ghorbanpour

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Strawberry is one of the most favored fruits all along the world. But due to its vulnerability to microbial contamination and short life storage, there are lots of problems in industrial production and transportation of this fruit. Therefore, lots of ideas have tried to increase the storage life of strawberries especially through proper packaging. This paper works on efficient packaging as well. The primary material used is produced through simple mixing of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and silver nanoparticles in different weight fractions of 0.5 and 1% in presence of dicumyl peroxide as a cross-linking agent. Final packages were made in a twin-screw extruder. Then, their effect on the quality maintenance of strawberry is evaluated. The SEM images of nano-silver packages show the distribution of silver nanoparticles in the packages. Total bacteria count, mold, yeast and E. coli are measured for microbial evaluation of all samples. Texture, color, appearance, odor, taste and total acceptance of various samples are evaluated by trained panelists and based on 9-point hedonic scale method. The results show a decrease in total bacteria count and mold in nano-silver packages compared to the samples packed in polyethylene packages for the same storage time. The optimum concentration of silver nanoparticles for the lowest bacteria count and mold is predicted to be around 0.5% which has attained the most acceptance from the panelist as well. Moreover, organoleptic properties of strawberry are preserved for a longer period in nano-silver packages. It can be concluded that using nano-silver particles in strawberry packages has improved the storage life and quality maintenance of the fruit.

Keywords: antimicrobial properties, polyethylene, silver nanoparticles, strawberry

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: K. W. Lee, C. M. Choi, H. C. Tsang, W. K. Fong, Y. K. Cheng, L. Y. Chan, C. K. Yuen, P. W. Lau, Y. L. To, K. C. Chow

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QR (Quick Response) Code is a matrix barcode. It enables users to open websites, photos and other information with mobile devices by just snapping the code. In usual Long Term Oxygen Therapy arrangement, piles of LTOT related information like leaflets from different oxygen service providers are given to patients to choose an appropriate plan according to their needs. If these printed materials are transformed into electronic format (QR Code), it would be more environmentally-friendly. More importantly, electronic materials including LTOT equipment operation and dyspnoea relieving techniques also empower patients in long-term disease management. The objective to this study is to investigate the effect of QR code in patient education on new LTOT users. This study was carried out in medical wards of North District Hospital. Adult patients and relatives who followed commands, were able to use smartphones with internet services and required LTOT arrangement on hospital discharge were recruited. In LTOT arrangement, apart from the usual LTOT education booklets which included patients’ personal information (e.g. oxygen titration and six-minute walk test results etc.), extra leaflets consisted of 1. QR codes of LTOT plans from different oxygen service providers, 2. Education materials of dyspnoea management and 3. Instructions on LTOT equipment operation were given. Upon completion of LTOT arrangement, a questionnaire about the use of QR code on patient education was filled in by patients or relatives. A total of 10 new LTOT users were recruited from November 2017 to January 2018. Initially, 70% of them did not know anything about the QR code, but all of them understood its operation after a simple demonstration. 70% of them agreed that it was convenient to use (20% strongly agree, 40% agree, 10% somewhat agree). 80% of them agreed that QR code could facilitate the retrieval of more LTOT related information (10% strongly agree, 70% agree) while 90% agreed that we should continue delivering QR code leaflets to new LTOT users in the future (30% strongly agree, 40% agree, 20% somewhat agree). It is proven that QR code is a convenient and environmentally-friendly tool to deliver information. It is also relatively easy to be introduced to new users. It has received welcoming feedbacks from current users.

Keywords: long-term oxygen therapy, physiotherapy, patient education, QR code

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum

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Authors: Ahmed F. Azmy, Amal E. Saafan, Tamer M. Essam, Magdy A. Amin, Shaban H. Ahmed

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Bacterial strains capable of degradation of malathion from the domestic sewage were isolated by an enrichment culture technique. Three bacterial strains were screened and identified as Acinetobacter baumannii (AFA), Pseudomonas aeruginosae (PS1),andPseudomonas mendocina (PS2) based on morphological, biochemical identification and 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Acinetobacter baumannii AFA was the most efficient malathion degrading bacterium, so used for further biodegradation study. AFA was able to grow in mineral salt medium (MSM) supplemented with malathion (100 mg/l) as a sole carbon source, and within 14 days, 84% of the initial dose was degraded by the isolate measured by high performance liquid chromatography. Strain AFA could also degrade other organophosphorus compounds including diazenon, chlorpyrifos and fenitrothion. The effect of different culture conditions on the degradation of malathion like inoculum density, other carbon or nitrogen sources, temperature and shaking were examined. Degradation of malathion and bacterial cell growth were accelerated when culture media were supplemented with yeast extract, glucose and citrate. The optimum conditions for malathion degradation by strain AFA were; an inoculum density of 1.5x 1012CFU/ml at 30°C with shaking. A specific polymerase chain reaction primers were designed manually using multiple sequence alignment of the corresponding carboxylesterase enzymes of Acinetobacter species. Sequencing result of amplified PCR product and phylogenetic analysis showed low degree of homology with the other carboxylesterase enzymes of Acinetobacter strains, so we suggested that this enzyme is a novel esterase enzyme. Isolated bacterial strains may have potential role for use in bioremediation of malathion contaminated.

Keywords: Acinetobacter baumannii, biodegradation, malathion, organophosphate pesticides

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Mohammad Nassiri, Farhad Ahmadi

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This research was carried out to investigate the effects of copper oxide nanoparticles (nano-CuO) on performance and gut morphology of broiler chickens. A total of 240 one-day-old male chickens (Ross-308) were randomly divided in a completely randomized design, the inclusion of 4 groups of 60 birds with 4 replicates and 15 birds in each. Experimental diets were as follow: T1 control (basal diets, without nano-CuO but contain 9.1 mg Cu/kg from CuO), T2, T3, and T4 basal diet supplementation with 30, 60, and 90 mg nano-CuO/kg, respectively. Feed intake (FI) and gain weight as weekly recorded and on d 21 feed conversion ratio (FCR) were calculated. Furthermore, at the end of the trial (21 d), four birds per treatment (one bird/replicate) randomly selected and after removed blood samples, they slaughtered and then to the analysis of gut morphological. A segment (10 cm) from the middle part of duodenum and jejunum was removed and put in the formalin 10% (pH = 7). The results revealed that nano-CuO had significantly increased body weight (P = 0.029, but feed intake (P = 0.017), and feed conversion ratio (P = 0.031) decreased in the birds that fed 90 mg nano-CuO when compared to control and the other groups. Total antioxidant capacity (P = 0.041), superoxide dismutase (P = 0.036), and glutathione peroxidase (P = 0.048) were more in the birds fed diet inclusion of 60 and 90 mg nano-CuO (T4) than other treatments. The lowest malonaldehyde (MDA) level was observed in T3 (P = 0.23) and T4 (P = 0.028) decreased (P = 0.17). The villi height and villi height to crypt depth (VH/CD ratio) numerically increased (P = 0.09) in the bird fed 90 mg nano-CuO in comparison with other treatments. According to present results, it could be concluded that dietary nano-CuO improved performance parameters and antioxidant status of broiler chickens during starter period. As well, the optimum improvement observed in the birds fed diet inclusion of 90 mg nano-CuO/kg.

Keywords: antioxidant, broilers, copper, performance, nanoparticles

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Authors: Mesfin Angaw Tesfay

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L-Xylulose is a potentially valuable rare sugar used as starting material for antiviral and anticancer drug development in pharmaceutical industries. L-Xylulose exist in a very low concentration in nature and have to be synthesized from cheap starting materials such as xylitol through biotechnological approaches. In this study, cofactor engineering and deep eutectic solvent were applied to improve the efficiency of L-xylulose production from xylitol. A water-forming NAD+ regeneration enzyme (NADH oxidase) from Streptococcus mutans ATCC 25175 was introduced into E. coli with xylitol-4-dehydrogenase (XDH) of Pantoea ananatis resulting in recombinant cells harboring the vector pETDuet-xdh-SmNox. Further, three deep eutectic solvents (DES) including, Choline chloride/glycerol (ChCl/G), Choline chloride/urea (ChCl/U), and Choline chloride/ethylene glycol (ChCl/EG) have been employed to facilitate the conversion efficiency of L-xylulose from xylitol. The co-expression system exhibited optimal activity at a temperature of 37 ℃ and pH 8.5, and the addition of Mg2+ enhanced the catalytic activity by 1.19-fold. Co-expression of NADH oxidase with XDH enzyme resulted in increased L-xylulose concentration and productivity from xylitol as well as the intracellular NAD+ concentration. Two of the DES used (ChCl/U and ChCl/EG) show positive effects on product yield and the ChCl/G has inhibiting effects. The optimum concentration of ChCl/U was 2.5%, which increased the L-xylulose yields compared to the control without DES. In a 1 L fermenter the final concentration and productivity of L-xylulose from 50 g/L of xylitol reached 48.45 g/L, and 2.42 g/L.h respectively, which was the highest report. Overall, this study is a suitable approach for large-scale production of L-xylulose from xylitol using the engineered E. coli cell.

Keywords: Xylitol-4-dehydrogenase, NADH oxidase, L-xylulose, Xylitol, Coexpression, DESs

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 407