Search results for: panel regression techniques
7819 The Importance of Self-Efficacy and Collective Competence Beliefs in Managerial Competence of Sports Managers'
Authors: Şenol Yanar, Sinan Çeli̇kbi̇lek, Mehmet Bayansalduz, Yusuf Can
Abstract:
Managerial competence defines as the skills that managers in managerial positions have in relation to managerial responsibilities and managerial duties. Today's organizations, which are in a competitive environment, have the desire to work with effective managers in order to be more advantageous position than the other organizations they are competing with. In today's organizations, self-efficacy and collective competence belief that determine managerial competencies of managers to assume managerial responsibility are of special importance. In this framework, the aim of this study is to examine the effects of sports managers' perceptions of self-efficacy and collective competence in managerial competence perceptions. In the study, it has also been analyzed if there is a significant difference between self-efficacy, collective competence and managerial competence levels of sports managers in terms of their gender, age, duty status, year of service and level of education. 248 sports managers, who work at the department of sports service’s central and field organization at least as a chief in the manager position, have been chosen with random sampling method and they have voluntarily participated in the study. In the study, the self-efficacy scale which was developed by Schwarzer, R. & Jerusalem, M. (1995), collective competence scale developed by Goddard, Hoy and Woolfolk-Hoy (2000) and managerial competence scale developed by Cetinkaya (2009) have been used as a data collection tool. The questionnaire form used as a data collection tool in the study includes a personal information form consisting of 5 questions; questioning gender, age, duty status, years of service and level of education. In the study, Pearson Correlation Analysis has been used for defining the correlation among self-efficacy, collective competence belief, and managerial competence levels in sports managers and regression analysis have been used to define the affect of self-efficacy and collective competence belief on the perception of managerial competence. T-test for binary grouping and ANOVA analysis have been used for more than binary groups in order to determine if there is any significant difference in the level of self-efficacy, collective and managerial competence in terms of the participants’ duty status, year of service and level of education. According to the research results, it has been found that there is a positive correlation between sports managers' self-efficacy, collective competence beliefs, and managerial competence levels. According to the results of the regression analysis, it is understood that the managers’ perception of self-efficacy and collective competence belief significantly defines the perception of managerial competence. Also, the results show that there is no significant difference in self-efficacy, collective competence, and level of managerial competence of sports managers in terms of duty status, year of service and level of education.Keywords: sports manager, self-efficacy, collective competence, managerial competence
Procedia PDF Downloads 2347818 Bridge Health Monitoring: A Review
Authors: Mohammad Bakhshandeh
Abstract:
Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is a crucial and necessary practice that plays a vital role in ensuring the safety and integrity of critical structures, and in particular, bridges. The continuous monitoring of bridges for signs of damage or degradation through Bridge Health Monitoring (BHM) enables early detection of potential problems, allowing for prompt corrective action to be taken before significant damage occurs. Although all monitoring techniques aim to provide accurate and decisive information regarding the remaining useful life, safety, integrity, and serviceability of bridges, understanding the development and propagation of damage is vital for maintaining uninterrupted bridge operation. Over the years, extensive research has been conducted on BHM methods, and experts in the field have increasingly adopted new methodologies. In this article, we provide a comprehensive exploration of the various BHM approaches, including sensor-based, non-destructive testing (NDT), model-based, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. We also discuss the challenges associated with BHM, including sensor placement and data acquisition, data analysis and interpretation, cost and complexity, and environmental effects, through an extensive review of relevant literature and research studies. Additionally, we examine potential solutions to these challenges and propose future research ideas to address critical gaps in BHM.Keywords: structural health monitoring (SHM), bridge health monitoring (BHM), sensor-based methods, machine-learning algorithms, and model-based techniques, sensor placement, data acquisition, data analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 907817 Investigation of Ascochyta Blight Resistance in Registered Turkish Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) Varieties by Using Molecular Techniques
Authors: Ibrahim Ilker Ozyigit, Fatih Tabanli, Sezin Adinir
Abstract:
In this study, Ascochyta blight resistance was investigated in 34 registered chickpea varieties, which are widely planting in different regions of Turkey. For this aim, molecular marker techniques, such as STMS, RAPD and ISSR were used. Ta2, Ta146 and Ts54 primers were used for STMS, while UBC733 and UBC681 primers for RAPD, and UBC836 and UBC858 primers for ISSR. Ta2, Ts54 and Ta146 (STMS), and UBC733 (RAPD) primers demonstrated the distinctive feature for Ascochyta blight resistance. Ta2, Ts54 and Ta146 primers yielded the quite effective results in detection of resistant and sensitive varieties. Besides, UBC 733 primer distinguished all kinds of standard did not give any reliable results for other varieties since it demonstrated all as resistant. In addition, monomorphic bands were obtained from UBC681 (RAPD), and UBC836 and UBC858 (ISSR) primers, not demonstrating reliable results in detection of resistance against Ascochyta blight disease. Obtained results informed us about both disease resistance and genetic diversity in registered Turkish chickpea varieties. This project was funded through the Scientific Research Projects of Marmara University under Grant Number FEN-C-YLP-070617-0365 and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Grant Number 113O070.Keywords: plant genetics, ISSR, RAPD, STMS
Procedia PDF Downloads 1997816 Unveiling the Potential of PANI@MnO2@rGO Ternary Nanocomposite in Energy Storage and Gas Sensing
Authors: Ahmad Umar, Sheikh Akbar, Ahmed A. Ibrahim, Mohsen A. Alhamami
Abstract:
The development of advanced materials for energy storage and gas sensing applications has gained significant attention in recent years. In this study, we synthesized and characterized PANI@MnO2@rGO ternary nanocomposites (NCs) to explore their potential in supercapacitors and gas sensing devices. The ternary NCs were synthesized through a multi-step process involving the hydrothermal synthesis of MnO2 nanoparticles, preparation of PANI@rGO composites and the assembly to the ternary PANI@MnO2@rGO ternary NCs. The structural, morphological, and compositional characteristics of the materials were thoroughly analyzed using techniques such as XRD, FESEM, TEM, FTIR, and Raman spectroscopy. In the realm of gas sensing, the ternary NCs exhibited excellent performance as NH3 gas sensors. The optimized operating temperature of 100 °C yielded a peak response of 15.56 towards 50 ppm NH3. The nanocomposites demonstrated fast response and recovery times of 6 s and 10 s, respectively, and displayed remarkable selectivity for NH3 gas over other tested gases. For supercapacitor applications, the electrochemical performance of the ternary NCs was evaluated using cyclic voltammetry and galvanostatic charge-discharge techniques. The composites exhibited pseudocapacitive behavior, with the capacitance reaching up to 185 F/g at 1 A/g and excellent capacitance retention of approximately 88.54% over 4000 charge-discharge cycles. The unique combination of rGO, PANI, and MnO2 nanoparticles in these ternary NCs offer synergistic advantages, showcasing their potential to address challenges in energy storage and gas sensing technologies.Keywords: paniI@mnO2@rGO ternary NCs, synergistic effects, supercapacitors, gas sensing, energy storage
Procedia PDF Downloads 737815 Harmonic Mitigation and Total Harmonic Distortion Reduction in Grid-Connected PV Systems: A Case Study Using Real-Time Data and Filtering Techniques
Authors: Atena Tazikeh Lemeski, Ismail Ozdamar
Abstract:
This study presents a detailed analysis of harmonic distortion in a grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system using real-time data captured from a solar power plant. Harmonics introduced by inverters in PV systems can degrade power quality and lead to increased Total Harmonic Distortion (THD), which poses challenges such as transformer overheating, increased power losses, and potential grid instability. This research addresses these issues by applying Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to identify significant harmonic components and employing notch filters to target specific frequencies, particularly the 3rd harmonic (150 Hz), which was identified as the largest contributor to THD. Initial analysis of the unfiltered voltage signal revealed a THD of 21.15%, with prominent harmonic peaks at 150 Hz, 250 Hz and 350 Hz, corresponding to the 3rd, 5th, and 7th harmonics, respectively. After implementing the notch filters, the THD was reduced to 5.72%, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in mitigating harmonic distortion without affecting the fundamental frequency. This paper provides practical insights into the application of real-time filtering techniques in PV systems and their role in improving overall grid stability and power quality. The results indicate that targeted harmonic mitigation is crucial for the sustainable integration of renewable energy sources into modern electrical grids.Keywords: grid-connected photovoltaic systems, fast Fourier transform, harmonic filtering, inverter-induced harmonics
Procedia PDF Downloads 347814 Development of Self Emulsifying Drug Delivery Systems (SEDDS) of Anticancer Agents Used in AYUSH System of Medicine for Improved Oral Bioavailability Followed by Their Pharmacological Evaluation Using Biotechnological Techniques
Authors: Meenu Mehta, Munish Garg
Abstract:
The use of oral anticancer drugs from AYUSH system of medicine is widely increased among the society due to their low cost, enhanced efficacy, increased patient preference, lack of inconveniences related to infusion and they provide an opportunity to develop chronic treatment regimens. However, oral delivery of these drugs usually laid down by the limited bioavailability of the drug, which is associated with a wide variation. As most of the cytotoxic agents have a narrow therapeutic window and are dosed at or near the maximum tolerated dose, a wide variability in the bioavailability can negatively affect treatment result. It is estimated that 40% of active substances are poorly soluble in water. The improvement of bio-availability of drugs with such properties presents one of the greatest challenges in drug formulations. There are several techniques reported in literature. Among all these Self Emulsifying Drug Delivery System (SEDDS) has gained more attention due to enhanced oral bio-availability enabling a reduction in dose. Thus, SEDDS anticancer drugs will have the increased bioavailability and efficacy. These dosage form will provide societal benefit in a cost-effective manner as compared to other oral dosage forms. Present study reflects on the formulation strategies as SEDDS for oral anticancer agents of AYUSH system for enhanced bioavailability with proven efficacy by cancer cell lines.Keywords: anticancer agents, AYUSH system, bioavailability, SEDDS
Procedia PDF Downloads 3067813 Exploratory Study of Individual User Characteristics That Predict Attraction to Computer-Mediated Social Support Platforms and Mental Health Apps
Authors: Rachel Cherner
Abstract:
Introduction: The current study investigates several user characteristics that may predict the adoption of digital mental health supports. The extent to which individual characteristics predict preferences for functional elements of computer-mediated social support (CMSS) platforms and mental health (MH) apps is relatively unstudied. Aims: The present study seeks to illuminate the relationship between broad user characteristics and perceived attraction to CMSS platforms and MH apps. Methods: Participants (n=353) were recruited using convenience sampling methods (i.e., digital flyers, email distribution, and online survey forums). The sample was 68% male, and 32% female, with a mean age of 29. Participant racial and ethnic breakdown was 75% White, 7%, 5% Asian, and 5% Black or African American. Participants were asked to complete a 25-minute self-report questionnaire that included empirically validated measures assessing a battery of characteristics (i.e., subjective levels of anxiety/depression via PHQ-9 (Patient Health Questionnaire 9-item) and GAD-7 (Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item); attachment style via MAQ (Measure of Attachment Qualities); personality types via TIPI (The 10-Item Personality Inventory); growth mindset and mental health-seeking attitudes via GM (Growth Mindset Scale) and MHSAS (Mental Help Seeking Attitudes Scale)) and subsequent attitudes toward CMSS platforms and MH apps. Results: A stepwise linear regression was used to test if user characteristics significantly predicted attitudes towards key features of CMSS platforms and MH apps. The overall regression was statistically significant (R² =.20, F(1,344)=14.49, p<.000). Conclusion: This original study examines the clinical and sociocultural factors influencing decisions to use CMSS platforms and MH apps. Findings provide valuable insight for increasing adoption and engagement with digital mental health support. Fostering a growth mindset may be a method of increasing participant/patient engagement. In addition, CMSS platforms and MH apps may empower under-resourced and minority groups to gain basic access to mental health support. We do not assume this final model contains the best predictors of use; this is merely a preliminary step toward understanding the psychology and attitudes of CMSS platform/MH app users.Keywords: computer-mediated social support platforms, digital mental health, growth mindset, health-seeking attitudes, mental health apps, user characteristics
Procedia PDF Downloads 927812 Ab-initio Calculations on the Mechanism of Action of Platinum and Ruthenium Complexes in Phototherapy
Authors: Eslam Dabbish, Fortuna Ponte, Stefano Scoditti, Emilia Sicilia, Gloria Mazzone
Abstract:
The medical techniques based on the use of light for activating the drug are occupying a prominent place in the cancer treatment due to their selectivity that contributes to reduce undesirable side effects of conventional chemotherapy. Among these therapeutic treatments, photodynamic therapy (PDT) and photoactivated chemotherapy (PACT) are emerging as complementary approaches for selective destruction of neoplastic tissue through direct cellular damage. Both techniques rely on the employment of a molecule, photosensitizer (PS), able to absorb within the so-called therapeutic window. Thus, the exposure to light of otherwise inert molecules promotes the population of excited states of the drug, that in PDT are able to produce the cytotoxic species, such as 1O2 and other ROS, in PACT can be responsible of the active species release or formation. Following the success of cisplatin in conventional treatments, many other transition metal complexes were explored as anticancer agents for applications in different medical approaches, including PDT and PACT, in order to improve their chemical, biological and photophysical properties. In this field, several crucial characteristics of candidate PSs can be accurately predicted from first principle calculations, especially in the framework of density functional theory and its time-dependent formulation, contributing to the understanding of the entire photochemical pathways involved which can ultimately help in improving the efficiency of a drug. A brief overview of the outcomes on some platinum and ruthenium-based PSs proposed for the application in the two phototherapies will be provided.Keywords: TDDFT, metal complexes, PACT, PDT
Procedia PDF Downloads 1037811 Automating and Optimization Monitoring Prognostics for Rolling Bearing
Authors: H. Hotait, X. Chiementin, L. Rasolofondraibe
Abstract:
This paper presents a continuous work to detect the abnormal state in the rolling bearing by studying the vibration signature analysis and calculation of the remaining useful life. To achieve these aims, two methods; the first method is the classification to detect the degradation state by the AOM-OPTICS (Acousto-Optic Modulator) method. The second one is the prediction of the degradation state using least-squares support vector regression and then compared with the linear degradation model. An experimental investigation on ball-bearing was conducted to see the effectiveness of the used method by applying the acquired vibration signals. The proposed model for predicting the state of bearing gives us accurate results with the experimental and numerical data.Keywords: bearings, automatization, optimization, prognosis, classification, defect detection
Procedia PDF Downloads 1207810 Controlling Cocoa Pod Borer, Conopomorpha cramerella (Snell.) and Cost Analysis Production at Cacao Plantation
Authors: Alam Anshary, Flora Pasaru, Shahabuddin
Abstract:
The Cocoa Pod Borer (CPB), Conopomorpha cramerella (Snell.) is present on most of the larger cocoa producing islands in Indonesia. Various control measures CPB has been carried out by the farmers, but the results have not been effective. This study aims to determine the effect of application of Beauveria bassiana treatments and pruning technique to the control of CPB in the cocoa plantation people. Research using completely randomized design with 4 treatments and 3 replications, treatment consists of B.bassiana, Pruning, B. bassiana+pruning (Bb + Pr), as well as the control. The results showed that the percentage of PBK attack on cocoa pods in treatment (Bb + Pr) 3.50% the lowest compared to other treatments. CPB attack percentage in treatment B.bassiana 6.15%; pruning 8.75%, and 15.20% control. Results of the analysis of production estimates, the known treatments (Bb + Pr) have the highest production (1.95 tonnes / ha). The model results estimated production is Y= 0,20999 + 0,53968X1 + 0,34298X2+ 0,31410X3 + 0,35629X4 + 0,08345X5 + 0,29732X6. Farm production costs consist of fixed costs and variable costs, fixed costs are costs incurred by the farmer that the size does not affect the results, such as taxes and depreciation of production equipment. Variable costs are costs incurred by farmers who used up in one year cocoa farming activities. The cost of production in farming cocoa without integrated techniques control of CPB is Rp. 9.205.550 million/ha, while the cost of production with integrated techniques control is Rp. 6.666.050 million/ha.Keywords: cacao, cocoa pod borer, pruning, Beauveria bassiana, production costs
Procedia PDF Downloads 2857809 The Role of Human Capital in the Evolution of Inequality and Economic Growth in Latin-America
Authors: Luis Felipe Brito-Gaona, Emma M. Iglesias
Abstract:
There is a growing literature that studies the main determinants and drivers of inequality and economic growth in several countries, using panel data and different estimation methods (fixed effects, Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Two Stages Least Squares (TSLS)). Recently, it was studied the evolution of these variables in the period 1980-2009 in the 18 countries of Latin-America and it was found that one of the main variables that explained their evolution was Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We extend this study to the year 2015 in the same 18 countries in Latin-America, and we find that FDI does not have a significant role anymore, while we find a significant negative and positive effect of schooling levels on inequality and economic growth respectively. We also find that the point estimates associated with human capital are the largest ones of the variables included in the analysis, and this means that an increase in human capital (measured by schooling levels of secondary education) is the main determinant that can help to reduce inequality and to increase economic growth in Latin-America. Therefore, we advise that economic policies in Latin-America should be directed towards increasing the level of education. We use the methodologies of estimating by fixed effects, GMM and TSLS to check the robustness of our results. Our conclusion is the same regardless of the estimation method we choose. We also find that the international recession in the Latin-American countries in 2008 reduced significantly their economic growth.Keywords: economic growth, human capital, inequality, Latin-America
Procedia PDF Downloads 2267808 Cyberfraud Schemes: Modus Operandi, Tools and Techniques and the Role of European Legislation as a Defense Strategy
Authors: Papathanasiou Anastasios, Liontos George, Liagkou Vasiliki, Glavas Euripides
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to describe the growing problem of various cyber fraud schemes that exist on the internet and are currently among the most prevalent. The main focus of this paper is to provide a detailed description of the modus operandi, tools, and techniques utilized in four basic typologies of cyber frauds: Business Email Compromise (BEC) attacks, investment fraud, romance scams, and online sales fraud. The paper aims to shed light on the methods employed by cybercriminals in perpetrating these types of fraud, as well as the strategies they use to deceive and victimize individuals and businesses on the internet. Furthermore, this study outlines defense strategies intended to tackle the issue head-on, with a particular emphasis on the crucial role played by European Legislation. European legislation has proactively adapted to the evolving landscape of cyber fraud, striving to enhance cybersecurity awareness, bolster user education, and implement advanced technical controls to mitigate associated risks. The paper evaluates the advantages and innovations brought about by the European Legislation while also acknowledging potential flaws that cybercriminals might exploit. As a result, recommendations for refining the legislation are offered in this study in order to better address this pressing issue.Keywords: business email compromise, cybercrime, European legislation, investment fraud, NIS, online sales fraud, romance scams
Procedia PDF Downloads 987807 Dynamic Conformal Arc versus Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy for Image Guided Stereotactic Radiotherapy of Cranial Lesion
Authors: Chor Yi Ng, Christine Kong, Loretta Teo, Stephen Yau, FC Cheung, TL Poon, Francis Lee
Abstract:
Purpose: Dynamic conformal arc (DCA) and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) are two treatment techniques commonly used for stereotactic radiosurgery/radiotherapy of cranial lesions. IMRT plans usually give better dose conformity while DCA plans have better dose fall off. Rapid dose fall off is preferred for radiotherapy of cranial lesions, but dose conformity is also important. For certain lesions, DCA plans have good conformity, while for some lesions, the conformity is just unacceptable with DCA plans, and IMRT has to be used. The choice between the two may not be apparent until each plan is prepared and dose indices compared. We described a deviation index (DI) which is a measurement of the deviation of the target shape from a sphere, and test its functionality to choose between the two techniques. Method and Materials: From May 2015 to May 2017, our institute has performed stereotactic radiotherapy for 105 patients treating a total of 115 lesions (64 DCA plans and 51 IMRT plans). Patients were treated with the Varian Clinac iX with HDMLC. Brainlab Exactrac system was used for patient setup. Treatment planning was done with Brainlab iPlan RT Dose (Version 4.5.4). DCA plans were found to give better dose fall off in terms of R50% (R50% (DCA) = 4.75 Vs R50% (IMRT) = 5.242) while IMRT plans have better conformity in terms of treatment volume ratio (TVR) (TVR(DCA) = 1.273 Vs TVR(IMRT) = 1.222). Deviation Index (DI) is proposed to better facilitate the choice between the two techniques. DI is the ratio of the volume of a 1 mm shell of the PTV and the volume of a 1 mm shell of a sphere of identical volume. DI will be close to 1 for a near spherical PTV while a large DI will imply a more irregular PTV. To study the functionality of DI, 23 cases were chosen with PTV volume ranged from 1.149 cc to 29.83 cc, and DI ranged from 1.059 to 3.202. For each case, we did a nine field IMRT plan with one pass optimization and a five arc DCA plan. Then the TVR and R50% of each case were compared and correlated with the DI. Results: For the 23 cases, TVRs and R50% of the DCA and IMRT plans were examined. The conformity for IMRT plans are better than DCA plans, with majority of the TVR(DCA)/TVR(IMRT) ratios > 1, values ranging from 0.877 to1.538. While the dose fall off is better for DCA plans, with majority of the R50%(DCA)/ R50%(IMRT) ratios < 1. Their correlations with DI were also studied. A strong positive correlation was found between the ratio of TVRs and DI (correlation coefficient = 0.839), while the correlation between the ratio of R50%s and DI was insignificant (correlation coefficient = -0.190). Conclusion: The results suggest DI can be used as a guide for choosing the planning technique. For DI greater than a certain value, we can expect the conformity for DCA plans to become unacceptably great, and IMRT will be the technique of choice.Keywords: cranial lesions, dynamic conformal arc, IMRT, image guided radiotherapy, stereotactic radiotherapy
Procedia PDF Downloads 2417806 Late Bronze Age Pigments: Characterization of Mycenaean Pottery with Multi-Analytical Approach
Authors: Elif Doğru, Bülent Kızılduman, Huriye İcil
Abstract:
Throughout history, Cyprus has been involved in various commercial and cultural relationships with different civilizations, owing to its strategic location. Particularly during the Late Bronze Age, Cyprus emerged as a significant region engaged in interactions with the Mycenaeans and other Mediterranean civilizations. Presently, findings from archaeological excavations provide valuable insights into Cyprus' cultural history and its connections with other civilizations. Painted Mycenaean ceramics discovered during the excavations at Kaleburnu-Kral Tepesi (Galinaporni-Vasili), dated to the Late Bronze Age in Cyprus, are considered significant archaeological findings that carry traces of the art and culture of that era, reflecting the island's commercial and cultural connections. Considering these findings, there is a need for archaeometric studies to aid in the understanding of the commercial and cultural ties at Kaleburnu-Kral Tepesi. In line with this need, analytical studies have been initiated concerning the provenance and production techniques of the Mycenaean ceramics discovered in the excavations at Kaleburnu-Kral Tepesi, dated to the Late Bronze Age. In the context of origin analysis studies, it is advocated that understanding the techniques and materials used for the figures and designs applied on Mycenaean ceramics would significantly contribute to a better comprehension of historical contexts. Hence, the adopted approach involves not only the analysis of the ceramic raw material but also the characterization of the pigments on the ceramics as a whole. In light of this, in addition to the studies aimed at determining the provenance and production techniques of the Mycenaean ceramic bodies, the characterization of the pigments used in the decorations of the relevant ceramics has been included in the research scope. Accordingly, this study aims to characterize the pigments used in the decorations of Mycenaean ceramics discovered at Kaleburnu-Kral Tepesi, dated to the Late Bronze Age. The X-Ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), and Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) methods have been employed to determine the surface morphology and chemical properties of the Mycenaean pigments. The characterization has been conducted through the combination of multiple analytical methods. The characterization of the pigments of Mycenaean ceramics aims to enhance the scientific perspective adopted for understanding the contributions of Mycenaean ceramics found in Cyprus to the island's culture, by providing scientific data on the types and origins of pigments used during the Late Bronze Age.Keywords: mycenaean, ceramic, provenance, pigment
Procedia PDF Downloads 747805 The Relationship between Self-Injurious Behavior and Manner of Death
Authors: Sait Ozsoy, Hacer Yasar Teke, Mustafa Dalgic, Cetin Ketenci, Ertugrul Gok, Kenan Karbeyaz, Azem Irez, Mesut Akyol
Abstract:
Self-mutilating behavior or self-injury behavior (SIB) is defined as: intentional harm to one’s body without intends to commit suicide”. SIB cases are commonly seen in psychiatry and forensic medicine practices. Despite variety of SIB methods, cuts in the skin is the most common (70-97%) injury in this group of patients. Subjects with SIB have one or more other comorbidities which include depression, anxiety, depersonalization, and feeling of worthlessness, borderline personality disorder, antisocial behaviors, and histrionic personality. These individuals feel a high level of hostility towards themselves and their surroundings. Researches have also revealed a strong relationship between antisocial personality disorder, criminal behavior, and SIB. This study has retrospectively evaluated 6,599 autopsy cases performed at forensic medicine institutes of six major cities (Ankara, Izmir, Diyarbakir, Erzurum, Trabzon, Eskisehir) of Turkey in 2013. The study group consisted of all cases with SIB findings (psychopathic cuts, cigarette burns, scars, and etc.). The relationship between causes of death in the study group (SIB subjects) and the control group was investigated. The control group was created from subjects without signs of SIB. Mann-Whitney U test was used for age variables and Chi-square test for categorical variables. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used in order to analyze group differences in respect to manner of death (natural, accident, homicide, suicide) and analysis of risk factors associated with each group was determined by the Binomial logistic regression analysis. This study used SPSS statistics 15.0 for all its statistical and calculation needs. The statistical significance was p <0.05. There was no significant difference between accidental and natural death among the groups (p=0.737). Also there was a unit increase in number of cuts in psychopathic group while number of accidental death decreased (95% CI: 0.941-0.993) by 0.967 times (p=0.015). In contrast, there was a significant difference between suicidal and natural death (p<0.001), and also between homicidal and natural death (p=0.025). SIB is often seen with borderline and antisocial personality disorder but may be associated with many psychiatric illnesses. Studies have shown a relationship between antisocial personality disorders with criminal behavior and SIB with suicidal behavior. In our study, rate of suicide, murder and intoxication was higher compared to the control group. It could be concluded that SIB can be used as a predictor of possibility of one’s harm to him/herself and other people.Keywords: autopsy, cause of death, forensic science, self-injury behaviour
Procedia PDF Downloads 5107804 Role of Psychological Capital in Organizational and Personal Outcomes: An Exploratory Study of Medical Professionals in Pakistan
Authors: Shazia Almas, Jaffar Iqbal, Nazia Almas
Abstract:
In most of the South Asian countries like Pakistan medical profession is one the most valued and respectful professions yet being a medical professional requires an enormous amount of responsibilities and work overload at the same time which possibly can be in contrast with family role of a doctor. Job and family are two primary spheres of a person's life no matter whatever the profession one adopts and the type of family one is running. There is a bi-directional relationship between job and family. The type and nature of work, time schedules, working shifts in medical profession are very demanding in the countries like Pakistan where number of patients is far more higher than the number of doctors available. The work life also have significant impact on family life and vice versa. Because of the sensitivity and interdependency of these relations, today’s overarching and competing demands remain dissatisfactory. The main objective of the current research is to investigate how interpersonal relationships affect work and work affects interpersonal relationships of medical professionals. In line with identifying these facts, the current study aimed to examine the predictive role of psychological capital (self-efficacy, hope, optimism, and resilience), in organizational outcome (job satisfaction) and personal outcome (family satisfaction) amongst male and medical professionals. A total of 350 participants from public and private sector hospitals of Pakistan were recruited through simple random and stratified sampling techniques, with age ranges from 26-50 years. The questionnaire including established and certified self-report measures of Psychological Capital Questionnaire, Job Satisfaction, and Family Satisfaction were adopted to collect the data. The reliability and validity of mentioned instruments were established through Cronbach’s alpha and factor analyses (exploratory and confirmatory) respectively using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) by AMOS. The proposed hypotheses were tested using Pearson’s Correlation and Regression analyses for predicting effect whereas, t-Test was deployed to verify the difference between male and female health professionals. The results revealed that self-efficacy and optimism predicted job satisfaction while, self-efficacy, hope, and resilience predicted family satisfaction. Moreover, the results depicted significant gender differences in job satisfaction where females were higher on job satisfaction as compared to male medical professionals but no significant differences were observed in levels of family satisfaction between both genders. The study has implications for social, organizational and work policy designers. The study also paves for more researches with positive psychological approach to promote work-family harmony.Keywords: family satisfaction, job satisfaction, medical professionals, psychological capital
Procedia PDF Downloads 2507803 A Small Graphic Lie. The Photographic Quality of Pierre Bourdieu’s Correspondance Analysis
Authors: Lene Granzau Juel-Jacobsen
Abstract:
The problem of beautification is an obvious concern of photography, claiming reference to reality, but it also lies at the very heart of social theory. As we become accustomed to sophisticated visualizations of statistical data in pace with the development of software programs, we should not only be inclined to ask new types of research questions, but we also need to confront social theories based on such visualization techniques with new types of questions. Correspondence Analysis, GIS analysis, Social Network Analysis, and Perceptual Maps are current examples of visualization techniques popular within the social sciences and neighboring disciplines. This article discusses correspondence analysis, arguing that the graphic plot of correspondence analysis is to be interpreted much similarly to a photograph. It refers no more evidently or univocally to reality than a photograph, representing social life no more truthfully than a photograph documents. Pierre Bourdieu’s theoretical corpus, especially his theory of fields, relies heavily on correspondence analysis. While much attention has been directed towards critiquing the somewhat vague conceptualization of habitus, limited focus has been placed on the equally problematic concepts of social space and field. Based on a re-reading of the Distinction, the article argues that the concepts rely on ‘a small graphic lie’ very similar to a photograph. Like any other piece of art, as Bourdieu himself recognized, the graphic display is a politically and morally loaded representation technique. However, the correspondence analysis does not necessarily serve the purpose he intended. In fact, it tends towards the pitfalls he strove to overcome.Keywords: datavisualization, correspondance analysis, bourdieu, Field, visual representation
Procedia PDF Downloads 687802 Hydrofracturing for Low Temperature Waxy Reservoirs: Problems and Solutions
Authors: Megh Patel, Arjun Chauhan, Jay Thakkar
Abstract:
Hydrofracturing is the most prominent but at the same time expensive, highly skilled and time consuming well stimulation technique. Due to high cost and skilled labor involved, it is generally carried out as the consummate solution among other well stimulation techniques. Considering today’s global petroleum market, no gaffe or complications could be entertained during fracturing, as it would further hamper the current dwindling economy. The literature would be dealing with the challenges encountered during fracturing low temperature waxy reservoirs and the prominent solutions to overcome such teething troubles. During fracturing treatment for, shallow and high freezing point waxy oil reservoirs, the first line problems are to overcome uncompleted breakdown, uncompleted cleanup of fracturing fluids and cold damages to the formations by injecting cold fluid (fluid at ambient conditions). Injecting fracturing fluids at ambient conditions have the tendency to decrease the near wellbore reservoir temperature below the freezing point of oil reservoir and hence leading to wax deposition around the wellbore thereby hampering the fluid production as well as fracture propagation. To overcome such problems, solutions such as hot fracturing fluid injection, encapsulated heat generating hydraulic fracturing fluid system, and injection of wax inhibitor techniques would be discussed. The paper would also be throwing light on changes in rheological properties occurred during heating fracturing fluids and solutions to deal with it taking economic considerations into account.Keywords: hydrofracturing, waxy reservoirs, low temperature, viscosity, crosslinkers
Procedia PDF Downloads 2587801 Mechanisms to Combat Maritime Terrorism in the Law of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and International Law
Authors: Khaleed Alsufyyan
Abstract:
This doctoral research has been successfully approved by a specialist upgrade panel, and it presents the proposition that the KSA policy for combating maritime terrorism is inadequate and current governance frameworks, including laws, are insufficiently developed to respond effectively and fairly to maritime terrorism. It will examine the legal system in the KSA in terms of effectiveness fairness, as well as investigate this proposition to determine what factors have contributed to such a deficiency. The main focus of this research will draw upon the policies, laws, and practices of the KSA, as well as UK and international laws and policies, to assess whether it is feasible to apply them in the context of the KSA. This thesis will recommend strategies regarding maritime terrorism to enrich the legal and policy frameworks and address the current and future dynamics of maritime terrorism adequately. To derive suitable improvements, UK policies, laws, and practices will be considered for policy transfer purposes. As for studies focused on the KSA, since the KSA is a Muslim state, it will be important to assess the impact of Islamic Law or Sharia Law subject to the doctrines of fairness and effectiveness to comprehend how the KSA’s legal system operates and determine the boundaries it sets for the response to maritime terrorism. This thesis will propose that more reforms are needed to effectively and fairly deal with maritime terrorism based on the prevailing understanding of Sharia law. The research will address the international perspectives on the problem of maritime terrorism and international cooperation of the KSA regarding maritime terrorism and consider the need for further developments.Keywords: maritime terrorism, maritime security, combat maritime terrorism in the KSA, protecting maritime transport against terrorism
Procedia PDF Downloads 877800 Forecast Combination for Asset Classes: Insights on Market Efficiency and Arbitrage
Authors: Rodrigo Baggi Prieto Alvarez, Jorge Miguel Bravo
Abstract:
The Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have transformed asset allocation, allowing investors to gain exposure to diverse asset classes with a single instrument. In turn, forecast combination models have emerged as advantageous methods for improving prediction accuracy. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits that prices fluctuate randomly, making abnormal returns unattainable, empirical evidence reveals autocorrelation in stock returns, challenging the EMH's strict interpretation. This raises the question of whether econometric models, machine learning methods and forecast combinations can predict asset prices more effectively. Also, comparing forecasts with futures market prices may reveal potential arbitrage opportunities, offering insights into market inefficiencies. Using ETFs indices from January 1st, 2015, to September 30th, 2024, across equity markets (S&P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI Developed Markets and MSCI Emerging Markets), fixed income (7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Developed Markets Treasury Bond, Emerging Markets Treasury Bond and U.S. Corporate Bonds), commodity (Gold Shares ETF) and crypto (ProShares Bitcoin ETF), this paper tests the predictive accuracy of traditional econometric models (ARIMA, ETS), machine learning (SVM, Random Forest, XGBoost) and forecast combinations (ARIMA-SVR, ARIMA-ANN, Ridge Regression and LASSO). Preliminary results suggest that ensemble methods can indeed outperform simple models, indicating that combinations like the Ridge Regression and LASSO are superior to econometric and machine learning models individually. Also, prediction accuracy is better for fixed income ETFs, aligned with the lower volatility of these assets, while models show higher forecast error for crypto and equity ETFs. Finally, initial comparisons between forecasts and the futures market prices reveal potential inefficiencies, suggesting opportunities for spot-futures index arbitrage. Providing empirical evidence on the application of forecasting models to a significant group of financial assets, these findings contribute to discussions on market efficiency and highlight the role of ensemble methods in improving asset price predictability and portfolio management.Keywords: ETF, asset prediction, forecast combination, EMH, spot-futures index arbitrage
Procedia PDF Downloads 07799 Decision Support: How Explainable A.I. Can Improve Transparency and Trust with Human Users
Authors: Devon Brown, Liu Chunmei
Abstract:
This paper will present an analysis as part of the researchers dissertation topic focusing on the intersection of affective and analytical directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in the context of Decision Support Systems (DSS). The researcher’s work involves analyzing decision theory models like Affective and Bayesian Decision theory models and how they could be implemented under an Affective Computing Framework using Information Fusion and Human-Centered Design. Additionally, the researcher is beginning research on an Affective-Analytic Decision Framework (AADF) model for their dissertation research and are looking to merge logic and analytic models with empathetic insights into affective DAGs. Data-collection efforts begin Fall 2024 and in preparation for the efforts this paper looks to analyze previous research in this area and introduce the AADF framework and propose conceptual models for consideration. For this paper, the research emphasis is placed on analyzing Bayesian networks and Markov models which offer probabilistic techniques during uncertainty in decision-making. Ideally, including affect into analytic models will ensure algorithms can increase user trust with algorithms by including emotional states and the user’s experience with the goal of developing emotionally intelligent A.I. systems that can start to navigate the complex fabric of human emotion during decision-making.Keywords: decision support systems, explainable AI, HCAI techniques, affective-analytical decision framework
Procedia PDF Downloads 207798 Recent Advances in Pulse Width Modulation Techniques and Multilevel Inverters
Authors: Satish Kumar Peddapelli
Abstract:
This paper presents advances in pulse width modulation techniques which refers to a method of carrying information on train of pulses and the information be encoded in the width of pulses. Pulse Width Modulation is used to control the inverter output voltage. This is done by exercising the control within the inverter itself by adjusting the ON and OFF periods of inverter. By fixing the DC input voltage we get AC output voltage. In variable speed AC motors the AC output voltage from a constant DC voltage is obtained by using inverter. Recent developments in power electronics and semiconductor technology have lead improvements in power electronic systems. Hence, different circuit configurations namely multilevel inverters have become popular and considerable interest by researcher are given on them. A fast Space-Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) method for five-level inverter is also discussed. In this method, the space vector diagram of the five-level inverter is decomposed into six space vector diagrams of three-level inverters. In turn, each of these six space vector diagrams of three-level inverter is decomposed into six space vector diagrams of two-level inverters. After decomposition, all the remaining necessary procedures for the three-level SVPWM are done like conventional two-level inverter. The proposed method reduces the algorithm complexity and the execution time. It can be applied to the multilevel inverters above the five-level also. The experimental setup for three-level diode-clamped inverter is developed using TMS320LF2407 DSP controller and the experimental results are analysed.Keywords: five-level inverter, space vector pulse wide modulation, diode clamped inverter, electrical engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 3887797 Synthesis and Characterisation of Bio-Based Acetals Derived from Eucalyptus Oil
Authors: Kirstin Burger, Paul Watts, Nicole Vorster
Abstract:
Green chemistry focuses on synthesis which has a low negative impact on the environment. This research focuses on synthesizing novel compounds from an all-natural Eucalyptus citriodora oil. Eight novel plasticizer compounds are synthesized and optimized using flow chemistry technology. A precursor to one novel compound can be synthesized from the lauric acid present in coconut oil. Key parameters, such as catalyst screening and loading, reaction time, temperature, residence time using flow chemistry techniques is investigated. The compounds are characterised using GC-MS, FT-IR, 1H and 13C-NMR techniques, X-ray crystallography. The efficiency of the compounds is compared to two commercial plasticizers, i.e. Dibutyl phthalate and Eastman 168. Several PVC-plasticized film formulations are produced using the bio-based novel compounds. Tensile strength, stress at fracture and percentage elongation are tested. The property of having increasing plasticizer percentage in the film formulations is investigated, ranging from 3, 6, 9 and 12%. The diastereoisomers of each compound are separated and formulated into PVC films, and differences in tensile strength are measured. Leaching tests, flexibility, and change in glass transition temperatures for PVC-plasticized films is recorded. Research objective includes using these novel compounds as a green bio-plasticizer alternative in plastic products for infants. The inhibitory effect of the compounds on six pathogens effecting infants are studied, namely; Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Shigella sonnei, Pseudomonas putida, Salmonella choleraesuis and Klebsiella oxytoca.Keywords: bio-based compounds, plasticizer, tensile strength, microbiological inhibition , synthesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1867796 Preprocessing and Fusion of Multiple Representation of Finger Vein patterns using Conventional and Machine Learning techniques
Authors: Tomas Trainys, Algimantas Venckauskas
Abstract:
Application of biometric features to the cryptography for human identification and authentication is widely studied and promising area of the development of high-reliability cryptosystems. Biometric cryptosystems typically are designed for patterns recognition, which allows biometric data acquisition from an individual, extracts feature sets, compares the feature set against the set stored in the vault and gives a result of the comparison. Preprocessing and fusion of biometric data are the most important phases in generating a feature vector for key generation or authentication. Fusion of biometric features is critical for achieving a higher level of security and prevents from possible spoofing attacks. The paper focuses on the tasks of initial processing and fusion of multiple representations of finger vein modality patterns. These tasks are solved by applying conventional image preprocessing methods and machine learning techniques, Convolutional Neural Network (SVM) method for image segmentation and feature extraction. An article presents a method for generating sets of biometric features from a finger vein network using several instances of the same modality. Extracted features sets were fused at the feature level. The proposed method was tested and compared with the performance and accuracy results of other authors.Keywords: bio-cryptography, biometrics, cryptographic key generation, data fusion, information security, SVM, pattern recognition, finger vein method.
Procedia PDF Downloads 1507795 A Comprehensive Analysis of Factors Leading to Fatal Road Accidents in France and Its Overseas Territories
Authors: Bouthayna Hayou, Mohamed Mouloud Haddak
Abstract:
In road accidents in French overseas territories have been understudied, with relevant data often collected late and incompletely. Although these territories account for only 3% to 4% of road traffic injuries in France, their unique characteristics merit closer attention. Despite lower mobility and, consequently, lower exposure to road risks, the actual road risk in Overseas France is as high or even higher than in Metropolitan France. Significant disparities exist not only between Metropolitan France and Overseas territories but also among the overseas territories themselves. The varying population densities in these regions do not fully explain these differences, as each territory has its own distinct vulnerabilities and road safety challenges. This analysis, based on BAAC data files from 2005 to 2018 for both Metropolitan France and the overseas departments and regions, examines key variables such as gender, age, type of road user, type of obstacle hit, type of trip, road category, traffic conditions, weather, and location of accidents. Logistic regression models were built for each region to investigate the risk factors associated with fatal road accidents, focusing on the probability of being killed versus injured. Due to insufficient data, Mayotte and the Overseas Communities (French Polynesia and New Caledonia) were not included in the models. The findings reveal that road safety is worse in the overseas territories compared to Metropolitan France, particularly for vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and motorized two-wheelers. These territories present an accident profile that sits between that of Metropolitan France and middle-income countries. A pressing need exists to standardize accident data collection between Metropolitan and Overseas France to allow for more detailed comparative analyses. Further epidemiological studies could help identify the specific road safety issues unique to each territory, particularly with regard to socio-economic factors such as social cohesion, which may influence road safety outcomes. Moreover, the lack of data on new modes of travel, such as electric scooters, and the absence of socio-economic details of accident victims complicate the evaluation of emerging risk factors. Additional research, including sociological and psychosocial studies, is essential for understanding road users' behavior and perceptions of road risk, which could also provide valuable insights into accident trends in peri-urban areas in France.Keywords: multivariate logistic regression, overseas France, road safety, road traffic accident, territorial inequalities
Procedia PDF Downloads 107794 Automatic Multi-Label Image Annotation System Guided by Firefly Algorithm and Bayesian Method
Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Mohamed A. El-Iskandarani, Guitar M. Shawkat
Abstract:
Nowadays, the amount of available multimedia data is continuously on the rise. The need to find a required image for an ordinary user is a challenging task. Content based image retrieval (CBIR) computes relevance based on the visual similarity of low-level image features such as color, textures, etc. However, there is a gap between low-level visual features and semantic meanings required by applications. The typical method of bridging the semantic gap is through the automatic image annotation (AIA) that extracts semantic features using machine learning techniques. In this paper, a multi-label image annotation system guided by Firefly and Bayesian method is proposed. Firstly, images are segmented using the maximum variance intra cluster and Firefly algorithm, which is a swarm-based approach with high convergence speed, less computation rate and search for the optimal multiple threshold. Feature extraction techniques based on color features and region properties are applied to obtain the representative features. After that, the images are annotated using translation model based on the Net Bayes system, which is efficient for multi-label learning with high precision and less complexity. Experiments are performed using Corel Database. The results show that the proposed system is better than traditional ones for automatic image annotation and retrieval.Keywords: feature extraction, feature selection, image annotation, classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 5867793 Computationally Efficient Stacking Sequence Blending for Composite Structures with a Large Number of Design Regions Using Cellular Automata
Authors: Ellen Van Den Oord, Julien Marie Jan Ferdinand Van Campen
Abstract:
This article introduces a computationally efficient method for stacking sequence blending of composite structures. The computational efficiency makes the presented method especially interesting for composite structures with a large number of design regions. Optimization of composite structures with an unequal load distribution may lead to locally optimized thicknesses and ply orientations that are incompatible with one another. Blending constraints can be enforced to achieve structural continuity. In literature, many methods can be found to implement structural continuity by means of stacking sequence blending in one way or another. The complexity of the problem makes the blending of a structure with a large number of adjacent design regions, and thus stacking sequences, prohibitive. In this work the local stacking sequence optimization is preconditioned using a method found in the literature that couples the mechanical behavior of the laminate, in the form of lamination parameters, to blending constraints, yielding near-optimal easy-to-blend designs. The preconditioned design is then fed to the scheme using cellular automata that have been developed by the authors. The method is applied to the benchmark 18-panel horseshoe blending problem to demonstrate its performance. The computational efficiency of the proposed method makes it especially suited for composite structures with a large number of design regions.Keywords: composite, blending, optimization, lamination parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 2277792 Python Implementation for S1000D Applicability Depended Processing Model - SALERNO
Authors: Theresia El Khoury, Georges Badr, Amir Hajjam El Hassani, Stéphane N’Guyen Van Ky
Abstract:
The widespread adoption of machine learning and artificial intelligence across different domains can be attributed to the digitization of data over several decades, resulting in vast amounts of data, types, and structures. Thus, data processing and preparation turn out to be a crucial stage. However, applying these techniques to S1000D standard-based data poses a challenge due to its complexity and the need to preserve logical information. This paper describes SALERNO, an S1000d AppLicability dEpended pRocessiNg mOdel. This python-based model analyzes and converts the XML S1000D-based files into an easier data format that can be used in machine learning techniques while preserving the different logic and relationships in files. The model parses the files in the given folder, filters them, and extracts the required information to be saved in appropriate data frames and Excel sheets. Its main idea is to group the extracted information by applicability. In addition, it extracts the full text by replacing internal and external references while maintaining the relationships between files, as well as the necessary requirements. The resulting files can then be saved in databases and used in different models. Documents in both English and French languages were tested, and special characters were decoded. Updates on the technical manuals were taken into consideration as well. The model was tested on different versions of the S1000D, and the results demonstrated its ability to effectively handle the applicability, requirements, references, and relationships across all files and on different levels.Keywords: aeronautics, big data, data processing, machine learning, S1000D
Procedia PDF Downloads 1577791 Farmers Willingness to Pay for Irrigated Maize Production in Rural Kenya
Authors: Dennis Otieno, Lilian Kirimi Nicholas Odhiambo, Hillary Bii
Abstract:
Kenya is considered to be a middle level income country and usuaaly does not meet household food security needs especially in North and South eastern parts. Approximately half of the population is living under the poverty line (www, CIA 1, 2012). Agriculture is the largest sector in the country, employing 80% of the population. These are thereby directly dependent on the sufficiency of outputs received. This makes efficient, easy-accessible and cheap agricultural practices an important matter in order to improve food security. Maize is the prime staple food commodity in Kenya and represents a substantial share of people’s nutritional intake. This study is the result of questionnaire based interviews, Key informant and focus group discussion involving 220 small scale maize farmers Kenyan. The study was located to two separated areas; Lower Kuja, Bunyala, Nandi, Lower Nzoia, Perkerra, Mwea Bura, Hola and Galana Kulalu in Kenya. The questionnaire captured the farmers’ use and perceived importance of the use irrigation services and irrigated maize production. Viability was evaluated using the four indices which were all positive with NPV giving positive cash flows in less than 21 years at most for one season output. The mean willingness to pay was found to be KES 3082 and willingness to pay increased with increase in irrigation premiums. The economic value of water was found to be greater than the willingness to pay implying that irrigated maize production is sustainable. Farmers stated that viability was influenced by high output levels, good produce quality, crop of choice, availability of sufficient water and enforcement the last two factors had a positive influence while the other had negative effect on the viability of irrigated maize. A regression was made over the correlation between the willingness to pay for irrigated maize production using scheme and plot level factors. Farmers that already use other inputs such as animal manure, hired labor and chemical fertilizer should also have a demand for improved seeds according to Liebig's law of minimum and expansion path theory. The regression showed that premiums, and high yields have a positive effect on willingness to pay while produce quality, efficient fertilizer use, and crop season have a negative effect.Keywords: maize, food security, profits, sustainability, willingness to pay
Procedia PDF Downloads 2207790 Time of Week Intensity Estimation from Interval Censored Data with Application to Police Patrol Planning
Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter
Abstract:
Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 66