Search results for: proper control and effective forest management

Authors: Neeraj Vij, Amber Brennan, Jenni Winters, Hadi Salehi, Hamy Temkit, Emily Andrisevic, Mohan V. Belthur

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Idiopathic clubfoot is a common lower extremity deformity with an incidence of 1:500. The Ponseti Method is well known as the gold standard of treatment. However, there is limited functional data demonstrating correction of the clubfoot after treatment with the Ponseti method. The purpose of this study was to study the clinical and functional outcomes after the Ponseti method with the Clubfoot Disease-Specific Instrument (CDS) and pedobarography. This IRB-approved prospective study included patients aged 3-18 who were treated for idiopathic clubfoot with the Ponseti method between January 2008 and December 2018. Age-matched controls were identified through siblings of clubfoot patients and other community members. Treatment details were collected through a chart review of the included patients. Laboratory assessment included a physical exam, gait analysis, and pedobarography. The Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument and the Clubfoot Disease-Specific Instrument were also obtained on clubfoot patients (CF). The Wilcoxson rank-sum test was used to study differences between the CF patients and the typically developing (TD) patients. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. There were a total of 37 enrolled patients in our study. 21 were priorly treated for CF and 16 were TD. 94% of the CF patients had bilateral involvement. The age at the start of treatment was 29 days, the average total number of casts was seven to eight, and the average total number of casts after Achilles tenotomy was one. The reoccurrence rate was 25%, tenotomy was required in 94% of patients, and ≥1 tenotomy was required in 25% of patients. There were no significant differences between step length, step width, stride length, force-time integral, maximum peak pressure, foot progression angles, stance phase time, single-limb support time, double limb support time, and gait cycle time between children treated with the Ponseti method and typically developing children. The average post-treatment Pirani and Dimeglio scores were 5.50±0.58 and 15.29±1.58, respectively. The average post-treatment PODCI subscores were: Upper Extremity: 90.28, Transfers: 94.6, Sports: 86.81, Pain: 86.20, Happiness: 89.52, Global: 88.6. The average post-treatment Clubfoot Disease-Specific Instrument scores subscores were: Satisfaction: 73.93, Function: 80.32, Overall: 78.41. The Ponseti Method has a very high success rate and remains to be the gold standard in the treatment of idiopathic clubfoot. Timely management leads to good outcomes and a low need for repeated Achilles tenotomy. Children treated with the Ponseti method demonstrate good functional outcomes as measured through pedobarography. Pedobarography may have clinical utility in studying congenital foot deformities. Objective measures for hours of brace wear could represent an improvement in clubfoot care.

Keywords: functional outcomes, pediatric deformity, patient-reported outcomes, talipes equinovarus

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Authors: Azwan Hamdan, Mohd Qayyum Ab Latip, Hasliza Abu Hassim, Tengku Rinalfi Putra Tengku Azizan, Hafandi Ahmad

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Animal cognition provides some evidence for self-recognition, which is described as the ability to recognize oneself as an individual separate from the environment and other individuals. The mirror self-recognition (MSR) or mark test is a behavioral technique to determine whether an animal have the ability of self-recognition or self-awareness in front of the mirror. It also describes the capability for an animal to be aware of and make judgments about its new environment. Thus, the objectives of this study are to measure and to compare the ability of wild and captive wildlife in mirror self-recognition. Wild animals from the Royal Belum Rainforest Malaysia were identified based on the animal trails and salt lick grounds. Acrylic mirrors with wood frame (200 x 250cm) were located near to animal trails. Camera traps (Bushnell, UK) with motion-detection infrared sensor are placed near the animal trails or hiding spot. For captive wildlife, animals such as Malayan sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) and chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) were selected from Zoo Negara Malaysia. The captive animals were also marked using odorless and non-toxic white paint on its forehead. An acrylic mirror with wood frame (200 x 250cm) and a video camera were placed near the cage. The behavioral data were analyzed using ethogram and classified through four stages of MSR; social responses, physical inspection, repetitive mirror-testing behavior and realization of seeing themselves. Results showed that wild animals such as barking deer (Muntiacus muntjak) and long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis) increased their physical inspection (e.g inspecting the reflected image) and repetitive mirror-testing behavior (e.g rhythmic head and leg movement). This would suggest that the ability to use a mirror is most likely related to learning process and cognitive evolution in wild animals. However, the sun bear’s behaviors were inconsistent and did not clearly undergo four stages of MSR. This result suggests that when keeping Malayan sun bear in captivity, it may promote communication and familiarity between conspecific. Interestingly, chimp has positive social response (e.g manipulating lips) and physical inspection (e.g using hand to inspect part of the face) when they facing a mirror. However, both animals did not show any sign towards the mark due to lost of interest in the mark and realization that the mark is inconsequential. Overall, the results suggest that the capacity for MSR is the beginning of a developmental process of self-awareness and mental state attribution. In addition, our findings show that self-recognition may be based on different complex neurological and level of encephalization in animals. Thus, research on self-recognition in animals will have profound implications in understanding the cognitive ability of an animal as an effort to help animals, such as enhanced management, design of captive individuals’ enclosures and exhibits, and in programs to re-establish populations of endangered or threatened species.

Keywords: mirror self-recognition (MSR), self-recognition, self-awareness, wildlife

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Authors: Rachel M. Edelstein, John D. Van Horn, Karen M. Schmidt, Sydney N. Cushing

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As a consequence of sports-related concussions, female athletes have been documented as reporting more symptoms than their male counterparts, in addition to incurring longer periods of recovery. However, the role of sex and its potential influence on symptom reporting and recovery outcomes in concussion management has not been completely explored. The present aims to investigate the relationship between female concussion symptom severity and the presence of assessment bias. The Sport Concussion Assessment Tool 3 (SCAT3), collected by the NCAA and DoD CARE Consortium, was quantified at five different time points post-concussion. N= 1,258 NCAA athletes, n= 473 female (soccer, rugby, lacrosse, ice hockey) and n=785 male athletes (football, rugby, lacrosse, ice hockey). A polytomous Item Response Theory (IRT) Graded Response Model (GRM) was used to assess the relationship between sex and symptom reporting. Differential Item Functioning (DIF) and Differential Group Functioning (DGF) were used to examine potential group-level bias. Interactions for DIF were utilized to explore the impact of sex on symptom reporting among NCAA male and female athletes throughout and after their concussion recovery. DIF was significantly detected after B-H corrections displayed in limited items; however, one symptom, “Pressure in Head” (-0.29, p=0.04 vs -0.20, p =0.04), was statistically significant at both < 6 hours and 24-48 hours. Thus, implies that at < 6 hours, males were 29% less likely to indicate “Pressure in the Head” compared to female athletes and 20% less likely at 24-48 hours. Overall, the DGF suggested significant group differences, suggesting that male athletes might be at a higher risk for returning to play prematurely (logits = -0.38, p < 0.001). However, after analyzing the SCAT 3, a clinically relevant trend was discovered. Twelve out of the twenty-two symptoms suggest higher difficulty in female athletes within three or more of the five-time points. These symptoms include Balance Problems, Blurry Vision, Confusion, Dizziness, Don’t Feel Right, Feel in Fog, Feel Slow Down, Low Energy, Neck Pain, Sensitivity to Light, Sensitivity to Noise, Trouble Falling Asleep. Despite a lack of statistical significance, this tendency is contrary to current literature stating that males may be unclear on symptoms, but females may be more honest in reporting symptoms. Further research, which includes possible modifying socioecological factors, is needed to determine whether females may consistently experience more symptoms and require longer recovery times or if, parsimoniously, males tend to present their symptoms and readiness for play differently than females. Such research will help to improve the validity of current assumptions concerning male as compared to female head injuries and optimize individualized treatments for sports-related head injuries.

Keywords: female athlete, sports-related concussion, item response theory, concussion assessment

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Authors: Bernard Nnamdi Emenyeonu

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The study of communication as a fully-fledged discipline in institutions of higher education in the Sultanate of Oman is relatively young. Its evolution is associated with Oman's Renaissance beginning from 1970, which ushered in an era of modernization in which education, industrialization, expansion, and liberalization of the mass media, provision of infrastructure, and promotion of multilateral commercial ventures were considered among the top priorities of national development plans. Communication studies were pioneered by the sole government university, Sultan Qaboos University, in the 1990s, but so far, the program is taught in Arabic only. In recognition of the need to produce professionals suitably equipped to fit into the expanding media establishments in the Sultanate as well as the widening global market, the government decided to establish programs in which communication would be taught in English language. Under the supervision of the Ministry of Higher Education, six Colleges of Applied Sciences were established in Oman in 2007. These colleges offer a 4-year Bachelor degree program in communication studies that comprises six areas of specialization: Advertising, Digital Media, International Communication, Journalism, Media Management and Public Relations. Over the years, a trend has emerged where students tend to flock to particular specializations such as Public Relations and Digital Media, while others, such as Advertising and Journalism, continue to draw the least number of students. In some instances, some specializations have had to be frozen due to the dire lack of interest among new students. It has also been observed that female students are more likely to be more biased in choice of specializations. It was therefore the task of this paper to establish, through a survey and focus group interviews, the factors that influence choice of communication studies as well as particular specializations, among Omani Communication Studies undergraduates. Results of the study show that prior to entering into the communication studies program, the majority of students had no idea of what the field entailed. Whatever information they had about communication studies was sourced from friends and relatives rather than more reliable sources such as career fairs or guidance counselors. For the most part, the choice of communication studies as a major was also influenced by factors such as family, friends and prospects for jobs. Another significant finding is the strong association between gender and choice of specializations within the program, with females flocking to digital media while males tended to prefer public relations. Reasons for specialization preferences dwelt strongly on expectations of a good GPA and the promise of a good salary after graduation. Regardless of gender, most students identified careers in news reporting, public relations and advertising as unsuitable for females. Teaching and program presentation were identified as the most suitable for females. Based on these and other results, the paper not only examined the social and cultural factors that are likely to have influenced the respondent's attitude to communication studies, but also discussed the implication for curriculum development and career development in a developing society such as Oman.

Keywords: career choice, communication specialization, media education, Oman

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Authors: Alexandre Beaupré-Lavallée, Pier-André Bouchard St-Amant, Nathalie Beaulac

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The question of internal governance of universities is a political and scientific debate in the province of Quebec (Canada). Governments have called or set up inquiries on the subject on three separate occasions since the complete overhaul of the educational system in the 1960s: the Parent Commission (1967), the Angers Commission (1979) and the Summit on Higher Education (2013). All three produced reports that highlight the constant tug-of-war for authority and legitimacy within universities. Past and current research that cover Quebec universities have studied several aspects regarding internal governance: the structure as a whole or only some parts of it, the importance of certain key aspects such as collegiality or strategic planning, or of stakeholders, such as students or administrators. External governance has also been studied, though, as with internal governance, research so far as only covered well delineated topics like financing policies or overall impacts from wider societal changes such as New Public Management. The latter, NPM, is often brought up as a factor that influenced overall State policies like “steering-at-a-distance” or internal shifts towards “managerialism”. Yet, to the authors’ knowledge, there is not study that specifically maps how the Quebec State formally influences internal governance. In addition, most studies about the Quebec university system are not comparative in nature. This paper presents a portion of the results produced by a 2022- 2023 study that aims at filling these last two gaps in knowledge. Building on existing governmental, institutional, and scientific papers, we documented the legal and regulatory framework of the Quebec university system and of twenty-one other university systems in North America and Europe (2 in Canada, 2 in the USA, 16 in Europe, with the addition of the European Union as a distinct case). This allowed us to map the presence (or absence) of mandatory structures of governance enforced by States, as well as their composition. Then, using Clark’s “triangle of coordination”, we analyzed each system to assess the relative influences of the market, the State and the collegium upon the governance model put in place. Finally, we compared all 21 non-Quebec systems to characterize the province’s policies in an internal perspective. Preliminary findings are twofold. First, when all systems are placed on a continuum ranging from “no State interference in internal governance” to “State-run universities”, Quebec comes in the middle of the pack, albeit with a slight lean towards institutional freedom. When it comes to overall governance (like Boards and Senates), the dual nature of the Quebec system, with its public university and its coopted yet historically private (or ecclesiastic) institutions, in fact mimics the duality of all university systems. Second, however, is the sheer abundance of legal and regulatory mandates from the State that, while not expressly addressing internal governance, seems to require de facto modification of internal governance structure and dynamics to ensure institutional conformity with said mandates. This study is only a fraction of the research that is needed to better understand State-universities interactions regarding governance. We hope it will set the stage for future studies.

Keywords: internal governance, legislation, Quebec, universities

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Authors: Te Kīpa Kēpa B. Morgan, Oliver W. Mcmillan, Dylan N. Taute, Tumanako N. Fa'aui

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Epistemologies are ways of knowing. Indigenous Peoples are aware that they do not perceive and experience the world in the same way as others. So it is important when empowering Indigenous epistemologies, such as that of the New Zealand Māori, to also be able to represent a scientific understanding within the same analysis. A geothermal development assessment tool has been developed by adapting the Mauri Model Decision Making Framework. Mauri is a metric that is capable of representing the change in the life-supporting capacity of things and collections of things. The Mauri Model is a method of grouping mauri indicators as dimension averages in order to allow holistic assessment and also to conduct sensitivity analyses for the effect of worldview bias. R-shiny is the coding platform used for this Vision Mātauranga research which has created an expert decision support tool (DST) that combines a stakeholder assessment of worldview bias with an impact assessment of mauri-based indicators to determine the sustainability of proposed geothermal development. The initial intention was to develop guidelines for quantifying mātauranga Māori impacts related to geothermal resources. To do this, three typical scenarios were considered: a resource owner wishing to assess the potential for new geothermal development; another party wishing to assess the environmental and cultural impacts of the proposed development; an assessment that focuses on the holistic sustainability of the resource, including its surface features. Indicator sets and measurement thresholds were developed that are considered necessary considerations for each assessment context and these have been grouped to represent four mauri dimensions that mirror the four well-being criteria used for resource management in Aotearoa, New Zealand. Two case studies have been conducted to test the DST suitability for quantifying mātauranga Māori and other biophysical factors related to a geothermal system. This involved estimating mauri0meter values for physical features such as temperature, flow rate, frequency, colour, and developing indicators to also quantify qualitative observations about the geothermal system made by Māori. A retrospective analysis has then been conducted to verify different understandings of the geothermal system. The case studies found that the expert DST is useful for geothermal development assessment, especially where hapū (indigenous sub-tribal grouping) are conflicted regarding the benefits and disadvantages of their’ and others’ geothermal developments. These results have been supplemented with evaluations for the cumulative impacts of geothermal developments experienced by different parties using integration techniques applied to the time history curve of the expert DST worldview bias weighted plotted against the mauri0meter score. Cumulative impacts represent the change in resilience or potential of geothermal systems, which directly assists with the holistic interpretation of change from an Indigenous Peoples’ perspective.

Keywords: decision support tool, holistic geothermal assessment, indigenous knowledge, mauri model decision-making framework

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Authors: Joana Almeida, Kendall Reid, Jonas Bengtsson

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Pallets are devices that are used for moving and storing freight and are nearly omnipresent in supply chains. The market is dominated by timber pallets, with plastic being a common alternative. Either option underpins the use of important resources (oil, land, timber), the emission of greenhouse gases and additional waste generation in most supply chains. This study uses a dynamic approach to the life cycle assessment (LCA) of pallets. It demonstrates that what ultimately defines the environmental burden of pallets in the supply chain is how often the length of its lifespan, which depends on the durability of the material and on how pallets are utilized. This study proposes a life cycle assessment (LCA) of pallets in supply chains supported by an algorithm that estimates pallet durability in function of material resilience and of logistics. The LCA runs from cradle-to-grave, including raw material provision, manufacture, transport and end of life. The scope is representative of timber and plastic pallets in the Australian and South-East Asia markets. The materials included in this analysis are: -tropical mixed hardwood, unsustainably harvested in SE Asia; -certified softwood, sustainably harvested; -conventional plastic, a mix of virgin and scrap plastic; -recycled plastic pallets, 100% mixed plastic scrap, which are being pioneered by Re > Pal. The logistical model purports that more complex supply chains and rougher handling subject pallets to higher stress loads. More stress shortens the lifespan of pallets in function of their composition. Timber pallets can be repaired, extending their lifespan, while plastic pallets cannot. At the factory gate, softwood pallets have the lowest carbon footprint. Re > pal follows closely due to its burden-free feedstock. Tropical mixed hardwood and plastic pallets have the highest footprints. Harvesting tropical mixed hardwood in SE Asia often leads to deforestation, leading to emissions from land use change. The higher footprint of plastic pallets is due to the production of virgin plastic. Our findings show that manufacture alone does not determine the sustainability of pallets. Even though certified softwood pallets have lower carbon footprint and their lifespan can be extended by repair, the need for re-supply of materials and disposal of waste timber offsets this advantage. It also leads to most waste being generated among all pallets. In a supply chain context, Re > Pal pallets have the lowest footprint due to lower replacement and disposal needs. In addition, Re > Pal are nearly ‘waste neutral’, because the waste that is generated throughout their life cycle is almost totally offset by the scrap uptake for production. The absolute results of this study can be confirmed by progressing the logistics model, improving data quality, expanding the range of materials and utilization practices. Still, this LCA demonstrates that considering logistics, raw materials and material durability is central for sustainable decision-making on pallet purchasing, management and disposal.

Keywords: carbon footprint, life cycle assessment, recycled plastic, waste

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Authors: Seung Ah Lee, Sunghyun Cho, Kyong Mee Chung

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Rapid population aging became a worldwide demographic phenomenon due to rising life expectancy and declining fertility rates. Considering the current increasing rate of population aging, it is assumed that Korean society enters into a ‘super-aged’ society in 10 years, in which people aged 65 years or older account for more than 20% of entire population. In line with this trend, ICT services aimed to help elderly people to improve the quality of life have been suggested. However, existing ICT services mainly focus on supporting health or nursing care and are somewhat limited to meet a variety of specialized needs and challenges of this population. It is pointed out that the majority of services have been driven by technology-push policies. Given that the usage of ICT services greatly vary on individuals’ socio-economic status (SES), physical and psychosocial needs, this study systematically categorized elderly population into sub-groups and identified their needs and characteristics related to ICT usage in detail. First, three assessment criteria (demographic variables including SES, cognitive functioning level, and emotional functioning level) were identified based on previous literature, experts’ opinions, and focus group interview. Second, survey questions for needs assessment were developed based on the criteria and administered to 600 respondents from a national probability sample. The questionnaire consisted of 67 items concerning demographic information, experience on ICT services and information technology (IT) devices, quality of life and cognitive functioning, etc. As the result of survey, age (60s, 70s, 80s), education level (college graduates or more, middle and high school, less than primary school) and cognitive functioning level (above the cut-off, below the cut-off) were considered the most relevant factors for categorization and 18 sub-groups were identified. Finally, 18 sub-groups were clustered into 3 groups according to following similarities; computer usage rate, difficulties in using ICT, and familiarity with current or previous job. Group 1 (‘active users’) included those who with high cognitive function and educational level in their 60s and 70s. They showed favorable and familiar attitudes toward ICT services and used the services for ‘joyful life’, ‘intelligent living’ and ‘relationship management’. Group 2 (‘potential users’), ranged from age of 60s to 80s with high level of cognitive function and mostly middle to high school graduates, reported some difficulties in using ICT and their expectations were lower than in group 1 despite they were similar to group 1 in areas of needs. Group 3 (‘limited users’) consisted of people with the lowest education level or cognitive function, and 90% of group reported difficulties in using ICT. However, group 3 did not differ from group 2 regarding the level of expectation for ICT services and their main purpose of using ICT was ‘safe living’. This study developed a systematic needs assessment tool and identified three sub-groups of elderly ICT users based on multi-criteria. It is implied that current cognitive function plays an important role in using ICT and determining needs among the elderly population. Implications and limitations were further discussed.

Keywords: elderly population, ICT, needs assessment, population aging

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Authors: Muzaffar Shaikh, Shoaib Shaikh, Mark Moyou, Gaby Hawat

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This paper presents the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in evaluating the site selection of a new plant by a corporation. Due to intense competition at a global level, multinational corporations are continuously striving to minimize production and shipping costs of their products. One key factor that plays significant role in cost minimization is where the production plant is located. In the U.S. for example, labor and land costs continue to be very high while they are much cheaper in countries such as India, China, Indonesia, etc. This is why many multinational U.S. corporations (e.g. General Electric, Caterpillar Inc., Ford, General Motors, etc.), have shifted their manufacturing plants outside. The continued expansion of the Internet and its availability along with technological advances in computer hardware and software all around the globe have facilitated U.S. corporations to expand abroad as they seek to reduce production cost. In particular, management of multinational corporations is constantly engaged in concentrating on countries at a broad level, or cities within specific countries where certain or all parts of their end products or the end products themselves can be manufactured cheaper than in the U.S. AHP is based on preference ratings of a specific decision maker who can be the Chief Operating Officer of a company or his/her designated data analytics engineer. It serves as a tool to first evaluate the plant site selection criteria and second, alternate plant sites themselves against these criteria in a systematic manner. Examples of site selection criteria are: Transportation Modes, Taxes, Energy Modes, Labor Force Availability, Labor Rates, Raw Material Availability, Political Stability, Land Costs, etc. As a necessary first step under AHP, evaluation criteria and alternate plant site countries are identified. Depending upon the fidelity of analysis, specific cities within a country can also be chosen as alternative facility locations. AHP experience in this type of analysis indicates that the initial analysis can be performed at the Country-level. Once a specific country is chosen via AHP, secondary analyses can be performed by selecting specific cities or counties within a country. AHP analysis is usually based on preferred ratings of a decision-maker (e.g., 1 to 5, 1 to 7, or 1 to 9, etc., where 1 means least preferred and a 5 means most preferred). The decision-maker assigns preferred ratings first, criterion vs. criterion and creates a Criteria Matrix. Next, he/she assigns preference ratings by alternative vs. alternative against each criterion. Once this data is collected, AHP is applied to first get the rank-ordering of criteria. Next, rank-ordering of alternatives is done against each criterion resulting in an Alternative Matrix. Finally, overall rank ordering of alternative facility locations is obtained by matrix multiplication of Alternative Matrix and Criteria Matrix. The most practical aspect of AHP is the ‘what if’ analysis that the decision-maker can conduct after the initial results to provide valuable sensitivity information of specific criteria to other criteria and alternatives.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multinational corporations, plant site selection, preference ratings

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Authors: Budur Almutairi

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Introduction: There is an alarming increase in the number of diabetic patients in Saudi Arabia during the last twenty years. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the country ranks seventh in the world for the rate of diabetes. It is also estimated that around 7 million of the population are diabetic and almost around 3 million have pre-diabetes. The prevalence is more in urban area than in rural and more in women than in men and it is closely associated with the parallel rise in obesity rates. Diabetes is found to be contributing to the increasing mortality, morbidity and vascular complications and becoming a significant cause of medical complications and even death. The trends shown by the numbers are worrying as the prevalence is steadily doubling every two decades and particularly in Saudi Arabia, this could soon reach 50% in those over 50 years of age. The economic growth and prosperity have shown notable changes in the lifestyle of the people. Most importantly, along with an increased consumption of fast foods and sugar-rich carbonated soft drinks, eating habits became less healthy and the level of physical activity is decreased. The simultaneous technological advancement and the introduction of new mechanical devices like, elevators, escalators, remotes and vehicles pushed people to a situation of leading a more sedentary life. This study is attempting to evaluate the success of the campaign that introduced through popular social media in the country. Methodology: The Ministry of Health (MoH) has initiated a novel method of campaign activity to generate discussion among public about diabetes. There were mythical monsters introduced through popular social media with disguised messages about the condition of diabetes has generated widespread discussions about the disease among the general public. The characters that started appearing in social media About 600 retweets of the original post was testimonial for the success of the Twitter campaign. The second most successful form of campaign was a video that adopted a very popular approach of using Dark Comedy in which, the diabetes was represented through a twisted negative character that talks about his meticulous plans of how he is going to take the common people into his clutches. This fictional character gained more popularity when introduced into twitter and people started interacting with him raising various questions and challenging his anti-social activities. Major findings: The video generated more than 3,200,000 views ranking 9th in You Tube’s most popular video in Saudi Arabia and was shared 7000 times in a single week. Also, the hashtag got over 4,500,000impressions and over one million visits. Conclusion: Diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia is emerging as an epidemic of massive proportions, threatening to negate the benefits of modernization and economic revival. It is highly possible that healthy practices connected with the prevention and management of DM can easily be implemented in a manner that does not conflict with the cultural milieu of Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: campaign, diabetes, Saudi, social media

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Authors: Jack L. Harris, Marya L. Doerfel, Hyunsook Youn, Minkyung Kim, Kautuki Sunil Jariwala

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Organizational resilience refers to the ability to sustain business or general work functioning despite wide-scale interruptions. We focus on organization and businesses as a pillar of their communities and how they attempt to sustain work when a natural disaster impacts their surrounding regions and economies. While it may be more common to think of resilience as a trait possessed by an organization, an emerging area of research recognizes that for organizations and businesses, resilience is a set of processes that are constituted through communication, social networks, and organizing. Indeed, five processes, robustness, rapidity, resourcefulness, redundancy, and external availability through social media have been identified as critical to organizational resilience. These organizing mechanisms involve multi-level coordination, where individuals intersect with groups, organizations, and communities. Because the nature of such interactions are often networks of people and organizations coordinating material resources, information, and support, they necessarily require some way to coordinate despite being displaced. Little is known, however, if physical and digital spaces can substitute one for the other. We thus are guided by the question, is digital space sufficient when disaster creates a scarcity of physical space? This study presents a cross-case comparison based on field research from four different regions of the United States that were impacted by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Sandy (2012), Maria (2017), and Harvey (2017). These four cases are used to extend the science of resilience by examining multi-level processes enacted by individuals, communities, and organizations that together, contribute to the resilience of disaster-struck organizations, businesses, and their communities. Using field research about organizations and businesses impacted by the four hurricanes, we code data from interviews, participant observations, field notes, and document analysis drawn from New Orleans (post-Katrina), coastal New Jersey (post-Sandy), Houston Texas (post-Harvey), and the lower keys of Florida (post-Maria). This paper identifies an additional organizing mechanism, networked gathering spaces, where citizens and organizations, alike, coordinate and facilitate information sharing, material resource distribution, and social support. Findings show that digital space, alone, is not a sufficient substitute to effectively sustain organizational resilience during a disaster. Because the data are qualitative, we expand on this finding with specific ways in which organizations and the people who lead them worked around the problem of scarce space. We propose that gatherings after disaster are a sixth mechanism that contributes to organizational resilience.

Keywords: communication, coordination, disaster management, information and communication technologies, interorganizational relationships, resilience, work

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Authors: Domenico Carmelo Mongelli

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The context is that of great uncertainty in the 27 countries belonging to the European Union which has adopted an epochal measure: the elimination of internal combustion engines for the traction of road vehicles starting from 2035 with complete replacement with electric vehicles. If on the one hand there is great concern at various levels for the unpreparedness for this change, on the other the Scientific Community is not preparing accurate studies on the problem, as the scientific literature deals with single aspects of the issue, moreover addressing the issue at the level of individual countries, losing sight of the global implications of the issue for the entire EU. The aim of the research is to fill these gaps: the technological, plant engineering, environmental, economic and employment aspects of the energy transition in question are addressed and connected to each other, comparing the current situation with the different scenarios that could exist in 2035 and in the following years until total disposal of the internal combustion engine vehicle fleet for the entire EU. The methodologies adopted by the research consist in the analysis of the entire life cycle of electric vehicles and batteries, through the use of specific databases, and in the dynamic simulation, using specific calculation codes, of the application of the results of this analysis to the entire EU electric vehicle fleet from 2035 onwards. Energy balance sheets will be drawn up (to evaluate the net energy saved), plant balance sheets (to determine the surplus demand for power and electrical energy required and the sizing of new plants from renewable sources to cover electricity needs), economic balance sheets (to determine the investment costs for this transition, the savings during the operation phase and the payback times of the initial investments), the environmental balances (with the different energy mix scenarios in anticipation of 2035, the reductions in CO2eq and the environmental effects are determined resulting from the increase in the production of lithium for batteries), the employment balances (it is estimated how many jobs will be lost and recovered in the reconversion of the automotive industry, related industries and in the refining, distribution and sale of petroleum products and how many will be products for technological innovation, the increase in demand for electricity, the construction and management of street electric columns). New algorithms for forecast optimization are developed, tested and validated. Compared to other published material, the research adds an overall picture of the energy transition, capturing the advantages and disadvantages of the different aspects, evaluating the entities and improvement solutions in an organic overall picture of the topic. The results achieved allow us to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the energy transition, to determine the possible solutions to mitigate these weaknesses and to simulate and then evaluate their effects, establishing the most suitable solutions to make this transition feasible.

Keywords: engines, Europe, mobility, transition

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Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

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Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

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Authors: Elias Jemal Abdella

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The Blue Nile River is an important shared resource of Ethiopia, Sudan and also, because it is the major contributor of water to the main Nile River, Egypt. Despite the potential benefits of regional cooperation and integrated joint basin management, all three countries continue to pursue unilateral plans for development. Besides, there is great uncertainty about the likely impacts of climate change in water availability for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Blue Nile Basin. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the upper Blue Nile basin, western Ethiopia. Three models were combined, a dynamic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model (RCM) that is used to determine climate projections for the Upper Blue Nile basin for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the period 2021-2050. The outputs generated from multimodel ensemble of four (4) CORDEX-RCMs (i.e., rainfall and temperature) were used as input to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model which was setup, calibrated and validated with observed climate and hydrological data. The outputs from the SWAT model (i.e., projections in river flow) were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water resources model which was used to determine the water resources implications of the changes in climate. The WEAP model was set-up to simulate three development scenarios. Current Development scenario was the existing water resource development situation, Medium-term Development scenario was planned water resource development that is expected to be commissioned (i.e. before 2025) and Long-term full Development scenario were all planned water resource development likely to be commissioned (i.e. before 2050). The projected change of mean annual temperature for period (2021 – 2050) in most of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 -2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC, implying that an increase in evapotranspiration loss. Subbasins which already distressed from drought may endure to face even greater challenges in the future. Projected mean annual precipitation varies from subbasin to subbasin; in the Eastern, North Eastern and South western highland of the basin a likely increase of mean annual precipitation up to 7% whereas in the western lowland part of the basin mean annual precipitation projected to decrease by 3%. The water use simulation indicates that currently irrigation demand in the basin is 1.29 Bm3y-1 for 122,765 ha of irrigation area. By 2025, with new schemes being developed, irrigation demand is estimated to increase to 2.5 Bm3y-1 for 277,779 ha. By 2050, irrigation demand in the basin is estimated to increase to 3.4 Bm3y-1 for 372,779 ha. The hydropower generation simulation indicates that 98 % of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planned dams are constructed.

Keywords: Blue Nile River, climate change, hydropower, SWAT, WEAP

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Authors: Kaori Narita, Juan de Dios Tena Horrillo, Claudio Detotto

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Decisions on replacement of leaders are of significance and high prevalence in any organization, and concerns many of its stakeholders, whether it is a leader in a political party or a CEO of a firm, as indicated by high media coverage of such events. This merits an investigation into the consequences and implications of a leadership change on the performances and behavior of organizations and their workers. Sport economics provides a fruitful field to explore these issues due to the high frequencies of managerial changes in professional sports clubs and the transparency and regularity of observations of team performance and players’ abilities. Much of the existing research on managerial change focuses on how this affects the performance of an organization. However, there is scarcely attention paid to the consequences of such events on the behavior of individuals within the organization. Changes in behavior and attitudes of a group of workers due to a managerial change could be of great interest in management science, psychology, and operational research. On the other hand, these changes cannot be observed in the final outcome of the organization, as this is affected by many other unobserved shocks, for example, the stress level of workers with the need to deal with a difficult situation. To fill this gap, this study shows the first attempt to evaluate the impact of managerial change on players’ behaviors such as attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts. The data used in this study is from the top tier Italian football league (“Serie A”), where an average of 13 within season replacements of head coaches were observed over the period of seasons from 2000/2001 to 2017/18. The preliminary estimation employs Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) and club-season Fixed Effect (FE) in order to assess the marginal effect of having a new manager on the number of shots, corners and red/yellow cards after controlling for a home-field advantage, ex ante abilities and current positions in the league of a team and their opponent. The results from this preliminary estimation suggest that the teams do not show a significant difference in their behaviors before and after the managerial change. To build on these preliminary results, other methods, including propensity score matching and non-linear model estimates, will be used. Moreover, the study will further investigate these issues by considering other measurements of attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts, such as possessions, a number of fouls and the athletic performance of players, respectively. Finally, the study is going to investigate whether these results vary over the characteristics of a new head coach, for example, their age and experience as a manager and a player. Thus far, this study suggests that certain behaviours of individuals in an organisation are not immediately affected by a change in leadership. To confirm this preliminary finding and lead to a more solid conclusion, further investigation will be conducted in the aforementioned manner, and the results will be elaborated in the conference.

Keywords: behaviour, effort, manager characteristics, managerial change, sport economics

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Authors: M. Siedlikowski, F. Rauch, A. Tsimicalis

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Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a genetic disorder of childhood onset that causes frequent fractures after minimal physical stress. To date, OI research has focused on medically- and surgically-oriented outcomes with little attention on the perspective of the affected child. It is a challenge to elicit the child’s voice in health care, in other words, their own perspective on their symptoms, but software development offers a way forward. Sisom (Norwegian acronym derived from ‘Si det som det er’ meaning ‘Tell it as it is’) is an award-winning, rigorously tested, interactive, computerized tool that helps children with chronic illnesses express their symptoms to their clinicians. The successful Sisom software tool, that addresses the child directly, has not yet been adapted to attend to symptoms unique to children with OI. The purpose of this study was to develop a Sisom paper prototype for children with OI by seeking the perspectives of end users, particularly, children with OI and clinicians. Our descriptive qualitative study was conducted at Shriners Hospitals for Children® – Canada, which follows the largest cohort of children with OI in North America. Purposive sampling was used to recruit 12 children with OI over three cycles. Nine clinicians oversaw the development process, which involved determining the relevance of current Sisom symptoms, vignettes, and avatars, as well as generating new Sisom OI components. Data, including field notes, transcribed audio-recordings, and drawings, were deductively analyzed using content analysis techniques. Guided by the following framework, data pertaining to symptoms, vignettes, and avatars were coded into five categories: a) Relevant; b) Irrelevant; c) To modify; d) To add; e) Unsure. Overall, 70.8% of Sisom symptoms were deemed relevant for inclusion, with 49.4% directly incorporated, and 21.3% incorporated with changes to syntax, and/or vignette, and/or location. Three additions were made to the ‘Avatar’ island. This allowed children to celebrate their uniqueness: ‘Makes you feel like you’re not like everybody else.’ One new island, ‘About Me’, was added to capture children’s worldviews. One new sub-island, ‘Getting Around’, was added to reflect accessibility issues. These issues were related to the children’s independence, their social lives, as well as the perceptions of others. In being consulted as experts throughout the co-creation of the Sisom OI paper prototype, children coded the Sisom symptoms and provided sound rationales for their chosen codes. In rationalizing their codes, all children shared personal stories about themselves and their relationships, insights about their OI, and an understanding of the strengths and challenges they experience on a day-to-day basis. The child’s perspective on their health is a basic right, and allowing it to be heard is the next frontier in the care of children with genetic diseases. Sisom OI, a methodological breakthrough within OI research, will offer clinicians an innovative and child-centered approach to capture this neglected perspective. It will provide a tool for the delivery of health care in the center that established the worldwide standard of care for children with OI.

Keywords: child health, interactive computerized communication tool, participatory approach, symptom management

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Authors: Devansh Desai, Rahul Nigam

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Crop water stress (W) at a given growth stage starts to set in as moisture availability (M) to roots falls below 75% of maximum. It has been found that ratio of crop evapotranspiration (ET) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an indicator of moisture adequacy and is strongly correlated with ‘M’ and ‘W’. The spatial variability of ET0 is generally less over an agricultural farm of 1-5 ha than ET, which depends on both surface and atmospheric conditions, while the former depends only on atmospheric conditions. Solutions from surface energy balance (SEB) and thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing are now known to estimate latent heat flux of ET. In the present study, ET and moisture adequacy index (MAI) (=ET/ET0) have been estimated over two contrasting western India agricultural farms having rice-wheat system in semi-arid climate and arid grassland system, limited by moisture availability. High-resolution multi-band TIR sensing observations at 65m from ECOSTRESS (ECOsystemSpaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station) instrument on-board International Space Station (ISS) were used in an analytical SEB model, STIC (Surface Temperature Initiated Closure) to estimate ET and MAI. The ancillary variables used in the ET modeling and MAI estimation were land surface albedo, NDVI from close-by LANDSAT data at 30m spatial resolution, ET0 product at 4km spatial resolution from INSAT 3D, meteorological forcing variables from short-range weather forecast on air temperature and relative humidity from NWP model. Farm-scale ET estimates at 65m spatial resolution were found to show low RMSE of 16.6% to 17.5% with R2 >0.8 from 18 datasets as compared to reported errors (25 – 30%) from coarser-scale ET at 1 to 8 km spatial resolution when compared to in situ measurements from eddy covariance systems. The MAI was found to show lower (<0.25) and higher (>0.5) magnitudes in the contrasting agricultural farms. The study showed the potential need of high-resolution high-repeat spaceborne multi-band TIR payloads alongwith optical payload in estimating farm-scale ET and MAI for estimating consumptive water use and water stress. A set of future high-resolution multi-band TIR sensors are planned on-board Indo-French TRISHNA, ESA’s LSTM, NASA’s SBG space-borne missions to address sustainable irrigation water management at farm-scale to improve crop water productivity. These will provide precise and fundamental variables of surface energy balance such as LST (Land Surface Temperature), surface emissivity, albedo and NDVI. A synchronization among these missions is needed in terms of observations, algorithms, product definitions, calibration-validation experiments and downstream applications to maximize the potential benefits.

Keywords: thermal remote sensing, land surface temperature, crop water stress, evapotranspiration

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Authors: Sara S. Fouad, Omneya Messallam

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Egypt has countless prestigious buildings and diversity of cultural heritage which are located in many cities. Most of the researchers, archaeologists, stakeholders and governmental bodies are paying more attention to the big cities such as Cairo and Alexandria, due to the country’s centralization nature. However, there are other historic cities that are grossly neglected and in need of emergency conservation. For instance, Port Said which is a former colonial city that was established in nineteenth century located at the edge of the northeast Egyptian coast between the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal. This city is chosen because it presents one of the important Egyptian archaeological sites that archive Egyptian architecture of the 19^th and 20^th centuries. The historic urban fabric is divided into three main districts; the Arab, the European (Al-Afrang), and Port Fouad. The European district is selected to be the research case study as it has culture diversity, significant buildings, and includes the largest number of the listed heritage buildings in Port Said. Based on questionnaires and interviews, since 2003 several initiative trials have been taken by Alliance Francaise, the National Organization for Urban Harmony (NOUH), some Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and few number of community residents to highlight the important city legacy and protect it from being demolished. Unfortunately, the limitation of their participation in decision-making policies is considered a crucial threat facing sustainable heritage conservation. Therefore, encouraging the local community to participate in their architecture heritage conservation would create a self-confident one, capable of making decisions for the city’s future development. This paper aims to investigate the role of the local inhabitants in protecting their buildings heritage through listing the community level of participations twice (2012 and 2018) in preserving their heritage based on the ladder citizen participation approach. Also, it is to encourage community participation in order to promote city architecture conservation, heritage management, and sustainable development. The methodology followed in this empirical research involves using several data assembly methods such as structural observations, questionnaires, interviews, and mental mapping. The questionnaire was distributed among 92 local inhabitants aged 18-60 years. However, the outset of this research at the beginning demonstrated the majority negative attitude, motivation, and confidence of the local inhabitants’ role to safeguard their architectural heritage. Over time, there was a change in the negative attitudes. Therefore, raising public awareness and encouraging community participation by providing them with a real opportunity to take part in the decision-making. This may lead to a positive relationship between the community residents and the built heritage, which is essential for promoting its preservation and sustainable development.

Keywords: buildings preservation, community participation, heritage conservation, local inhabitant, ladder of citizen participation

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: S. M. A. Ismail, M. I. Ibrahim, H. Masdar, F. M. Effendi, M. F. Suhaimi, A. Suun

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Introduction: It is generally known that the rehabilitation process is as important as the reconstruction surgery. Several literature has focused on how early the rehabilitation modalities can be initiated after the surgery to ensure a safe return of patients to sports or at least regaining the pre-injury level of function following an ACL reconstruction. Objectives: The main objective is to study and evaluate the outcome of early balance exercises and agility training in sports rehabilitation for patients post ACL reconstruction. To compare between early balance exercises and agility training as intervention and control. (material or non-material). All of them were recruited for material exercise (balance exercises and agility training with strengthening) and strengthening only rehabilitation protocol (non-material). Followed the prospective intervention trial. Materials and Methods: Post-operative ACL reconstruction patients performed in Selayang and Sg Buloh Hospitals from 2012 to 2014 were selected for this study. They were taken from Malaysian Knee Ligament Registry (MKLR) and all patients had single bundle reconstruction with autograft hamstring tendon (semitendinosus and gracilis). ACL injury from any type of sports were included. Subjects performed various type of physical activity for rehabilitation in every 18 week for a different type of rehab activity. All subject attended all 18 sessions of rehabilitation exercises and evaluation was done during the first, 9th and 18th session. Evaluation format were based on clinical assessment (anterior drawer, Lachmann, pivot shift, laxity with rolimeter, the end point and thigh circumference) and scoring (Lysholm Knee scoring and Tegner Activity Level scale). Rehabilitation protocol initiated from 24 week after the surgery. Evaluation format were based on clinical assessment (anterior drawer, Lachmann, pivot shift, laxity with rolimeter, the end point and thigh circumference) and scoring (Lysholm Knee scoring and Tegner Activity Level scale). Results and Discussion: 100 patients were selected of which 94 patients are male and 6 female. Age range is 18 to 54 year with the average of 28 years old for included 100 patients. All patients are evaluated after 24 week after the surgery. 50 of them were recruited for material exercise (balance exercises and agility training with strengthening) and 50 for strengthening only rehabilitation protocol (non-material). Demographically showed 85% suffering sports injury mainly from futsal and football. 39 % of them have abnormal BMI (26 – 38) and involving of the left knee. 100% of patient had the basic radiographic x-ray of knee and 98% had MRI. All patients had negative anterior drawer’s, Lachman test and Pivot shift test during the post ACL reconstruction after the complete rehabilitation. There was 95 subject sustained grade I injury, 5 of grade II and 0 of grade III with 90% of them had soft end-point. Overall they scored badly on presentation with 53% of Lysholm score (poor) and Tegner activity score level 3/10. After completing 9 weeks of exercises, of material group 90% had grade I laxity, 75% with firm end-point, Lysholm score 71% (fair) and Tegner activity level 5/10 comparing non-material group who had 62% of grade I laxity , 54% of firm end-point, Lyhslom score 62 % (poor) and Tegner activity level 4/10. After completed 18 weeks of exercises, of material group maintained 90% grade I laxity with 100 % with firm end-point, Lysholm score increase 91% (excellent) and Tegner activity level 7/10 comparing non-material group who had 69% of grade I laxity but maintained 54% of firm end-point, Lysholm score 76% (fair) and Tegner activity level 5/10. These showed the improvement were achieved fast on material group who have achieved satisfactory level after 9th cycle of exercises 75% (15/20) comparing non-material group who only achieved 54% (7/13) after completed 18th session. Most of them were grade I. These concepts are consolidated into our approach to prepare patients for return to play including field testing and maintenance training. Conclusions: The basic approach in ACL rehabilitation is to ensure return to sports at post-operative 6 month. Grade I and II laxity has favourable and early satisfactory outcome base on clinical assessment and Lysholm and Tegner scoring point. Reduction of laxity grading indicates satisfactory outcome. Firm end-point showed the adequacy of rehabilitation before starting previous sports game. Material exercise (balance exercises and agility training with strengthening) were beneficial and reliable in order to achieve favourable and early satisfactory outcome comparing strengthening only (non-material).We have identified that rehabilitation protocol varies between different patients. Therefore future post ACL reconstruction rehabilitation guidelines should look into focusing on rehabilitation techniques instead of time.

Keywords: post anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, single bundle, hamstring tendon, sports rehabilitation, balance exercises, agility balance

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Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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Authors: Stavros T. Ponis, George D. Plakas-Koumadorakis, Sotiris P. Gayialis

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Augmented Reality (AR) can be defined as a technology, which takes the capabilities of computer-generated display, sound, text and effects to enhance the user's real-world experience by overlaying virtual objects into the real world. By doing that, AR is capable of providing a vast array of work support tools, which can significantly increase employee productivity, enhance existing job training programs by making them more realistic and in some cases introduce completely new forms of work and task executions. One of the most promising AR industrial applications, as literature shows, is the use of Head Worn, monocular or binocular Displays (HWD) to support logistics and production operations, such as order picking, part assembly and maintenance. This paper presents the initial results of an ongoing research project for the introduction of a dedicated AR-HWD solution to the picking process of a Distribution Center (DC) in Greece operated by a large Telecommunication Service Provider (TSP). In that context, the proposed research aims to determine whether gamification elements should be integrated in the functional requirements of the AR solution, such as providing points for reaching objectives and creating leaderboards and awards (e.g. badges) for general achievements. Up to now, there is a an ambiguity on the impact of gamification in logistics operations since gamification literature mostly focuses on non-industrial organizational contexts such as education and customer/citizen facing applications, such as tourism and health. To the contrary, the gamification efforts described in this study focus in one of the most labor- intensive and workflow dependent logistics processes, i.e. Customer Order Picking (COP). Although introducing AR in COP, undoubtedly, creates significant opportunities for workload reduction and increased process performance the added value of gamification is far from certain. This paper aims to provide insights on the suitability and usefulness of AR-enhanced gamification in the hard and very demanding environment of a logistics center. In doing so, it will utilize a review of the current state-of-the art regarding gamification of production and logistics processes coupled with the results of questionnaire guided interviews with industry experts, i.e. logisticians, warehouse workers (pickers) and AR software developers. The findings of the proposed research aim to contribute towards a better understanding of AR-enhanced gamification, the organizational change it entails and the consequences it potentially has for all implicated entities in the often highly standardized and structured work required in the logistics setting. The interpretation of these findings will support the decision of logisticians regarding the introduction of gamification in their logistics processes by providing them useful insights and guidelines originating from a real life case study of a large DC operating more than 300 retail outlets in Greece.

Keywords: augmented reality, technology acceptance, warehouse management, vision picking, new forms of work, gamification

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Authors: Ishan Naidu, Jessica Ryvlin, Devin Videlefsky

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Introduction: Back pain is a leading cause of years lived with disability and economic burden, exceeding over $20 billion in healthcare costs not including indirect costs such as absence from work and caregiving. The multifactorial nature of back pain leads to treatment modalities administered by a variety of specialists, which are often disjointed. Multiple studies have found that patients receiving delayed physical therapy for lower back pain had higher medical-related costs from increased health service utilization as well as a reduced improvement in pain severity compared to early management. Uncoordinated health care delivery can exacerbate the physical and economic toll of the chronic condition, thus improvements in interdisciplinary, shared decision-making may improve outcomes. Objective: To assess whether a multidisciplinary spine clinic (MSC), consisting of orthopedic surgery, neurosurgery, pain medicine, and physiatry, alters interventional and non-interventional planning and treatment compared to a traditional unidisciplinary spine clinic (USC) including only orthopedic surgery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with patients initially presenting for spine care to orthopedic surgeons between July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019. Time to treatment recommendation, time to treatment and rates of treatment recommendations were assessed, including physical therapy, injections and surgery. Treatment rates were compared between MSC and USC using Pearson’s chi-square test logistic regression. Time to treatment recommendation and time to treatment were compared using log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard regression. All analyses were repeated for the propensity score (PS) matched subsample. Results: This study included 1,764 patients, with 692 at MSC and 1,072 at USC. Patients in MSC were more likely to be recommended injection when compared to USC (8.5% vs. 5.4%, p=0.01). When adjusted for confounders, the likelihood of injection recommendation remained greater in MSC than USC (Odds ratio [OR]=2.22, 95% CI: (1.39, 3.53), p=0.001). MSC was also associated with a shorter time to receiving injection recommendation versus USC (median: 21 vs. 32 days, log-rank: p<0.001; hazard ratio [HR]=1.90, 95% CI: (1.25, 2.90), p=0.003). MSC was associated with a higher likelihood of injection treatment (OR=2.27, 95% CI: (1.39, 3.73), p=0.001) and shorter lead time (HR=1.98, 95% CI: (1.27, 3.09), p=0.003). PS-matched analyses yielded similar conclusions. Conclusions: Care delivered at a multidisciplinary spine clinic was associated with a higher likelihood of recommending injection and a shorter lead time to injection administration when compared to a traditional unidisciplinary spine surgery clinic. Multidisciplinary clinics may facilitate coordinated care amongst different specialties resulting in increased utilization of less invasive treatment modalities while also improving care efficiency. The multidisciplinary clinic model is an important advancement in care delivery and communication, which can be used as a powerful method of improving patient outcomes as treatment guidelines evolve.

Keywords: coordinated care, epidural steroid injection, multi-disciplinary, non-invasive

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Authors: Ben Morrow, Patrick O'Hara, Natalie Ban, Tunai Marques, Molly Fraser, Christopher Bone

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Relative to commercial fisheries, recreational fisheries are often poorly understood and pose various challenges for monitoring frameworks. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, Pacific salmon are heavily targeted by recreational fishers while also being a key source of nutrient flow and crucial prey for a variety of marine and terrestrial fauna, including endangered Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus orca). Although commercial fisheries were historically responsible for the majority of salmon retention, recreational fishing now comprises both greater effort and retention. The current monitoring scheme for recreational salmon fisheries involves aerial-roving creel surveys. However, this method has been identified as costly and having low predictive power as it is often limited to sampling fragments of fluid and temporally dynamic fisheries. This study used imagery from two shore-based autonomous cameras in a highly active recreational fishery around Sooke, BC, and evaluated their efficacy in supplementing existing aerial-roving surveys for monitoring a recreational salmon fishery. This study involved continuous monitoring and high temporal resolution (over one million images analyzed in a single fishing season), using a deep learning-based vessel detection algorithm and a custom image annotation tool to efficiently thin datasets. This allowed for the quantification of peak-season effort from a busy harbour, species-specific retention estimates, high levels of detected fishing events at a nearby popular fishing location, as well as the proportion of the fishery management area represented by cameras. Then, this study demonstrated how it could substantially enhance the temporal resolution of a fishery through diel activity pattern analyses, scaled monthly to visualize clusters of activity. This work also highlighted considerable off-season fishing detection, currently unaccounted for in the existing monitoring framework. These results demonstrate several distinct applications of autonomous cameras for providing enhanced detail currently unavailable in the current monitoring framework, each of which has important considerations for the managerial allocation of resources. Further, the approach and methodology can benefit other studies that apply shore-based camera monitoring, supplement aerial-roving creel surveys to improve fine-scale temporal understanding, inform the optimal timing of creel surveys, and improve the predictive power of recreational stock assessments to preserve important and endangered fish species.

Keywords: cameras, monitoring, recreational fishing, stock assessment

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Authors: Madison Hall

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The Assisted Colonization of Polar Bears to Antarctica requires a careful analysis of treaties to understand existing legal barriers to Ursus maritimus transport and movement. An absence of land-based migration routes prevent polar bears from accessing southern polar regions on their own. This lack of access is compounded by current treaties which limit human intervention and assistance to ford these physical and legal barriers. In a time of massive planetary extinctions, Assisted Colonization posits that certain endangered species may be prime candidates for relocation to hospitable environments to which they have never previously had access. By analyzing existing treaties, this paper will examine how polar bears are limited in movement by humankind’s legal barriers. International treaties may be considered codified reflections of anthropocentric values of the best knowledge and understanding of an identified problem at a set point in time, as understood through the human lens. Even as human social values and scientific insights evolve, so too must treaties evolve which specify legal frameworks and structures impacting keystone species and related biomes. Due to costs and other myriad difficulties, only a very select number of species will be given this opportunity. While some species move into new regions and are then deemed invasive, Assisted Colonization considers that some assistance may be mandated due to the nature of humankind’s role in climate change. This moral question and ethical imperative against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, drives the question forward; what is the potential for successfully relocating a select handful of charismatic and ecologically important life forms? Is it possible to reimagine a different, but balanced Antarctic ecosystem? Listed as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a result of the ongoing loss of critical habitat by melting sea ice, polar bears have limited options for long term survival in the wild. Our current regime for safeguarding animals facing extinction frequently utilizes zoos and their breeding programs, to keep alive the genetic diversity of the species until some future time when reintroduction, somewhere, may be attempted. By exploring the potential for polar bears to be relocated to Antarctica, we must analyze the complex ethical, legal, political, financial, and biological realms, which are the backdrop to framing all questions in this arena. Can we do it? Should we do it? By utilizing an environmental ethics perspective, we propose that the Ecological Commons of the Arctic and Antarctic should not be viewed solely through the lens of human resource management needs. From this perspective, polar bears do not need our permission, they need our assistance. Antarctica therefore represents a second, if imperfect chance, to buy time for polar bears, in a world where polar regimes, not yet fully understood, are themselves quickly changing as a result of climate change.

Keywords: polar bear, climate change, environmental ethics, Arctic, Antarctica, assisted colonization, treaty

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Authors: Purushottam P. Khatiwada, Bikash Paudel, Ram B. Rana, Parshuram Biswakarma, Roshan Pudasaini

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Nepal has been putting its efforts into securing food and nutrition security for its citizens adopting different models and approaches. Home Garden approach, that integrates vegetables, fruits, small livestock, poultry along with other components like fish, honeybee, mushroom, spices for the promotion of nutritional security of resource-poor and disadvantaged groups was implemented during March 2009 to July 2013 spreading over 16 districts of Nepal covering 115 farmers groups, directly working with 3500 households. Sustained long-term impact of development interventions targeted to the resource-poor and disadvantaged groups has been a recurrent issue for donors, policymakers and practitioners alike. Considering the issue, a post-project evaluation was carried out in a selected project group (Dangibari of Jhapa) after four years of project completion in 2017 in order to evaluate the impact and understand the factors associated with its success. Qualitative information was collected through focus group discussion with group members and associated local institutions. For quantitative information, a quick survey was carried out to the same group members only selecting few indicators. The results are compared with the data obtained from the baseline study conducted by the project in March 2009. The impact of project intervention was evident as compared to the benchmarks established during the baseline, even after four years of project completion. The area under home garden is increased to 729 m² from 386 m² and average food self-sufficiency months increased to 10.22 from 8.11. Seven to eleven fruit species are maintained in the home gardens. An average number of vegetable species grown increased to 15.85 from 9.86. It has resulted in an increase in vegetables self-sufficient month to 8.74 from 4.74 and a huge increase in cash income NPR 6142.8 (USD 59.6) from NPR 385.7 (USD 3.9) from the sale of surplus vegetables. Coaching and mentoring including nutrition sensitization by the project staff at the beginning, inputs and technical support during the project implementation phase and projects effort on the institutional building of disadvantaged farmers were the key drivers of home garden sustainability and expansion. Specifically, package of home garden management trainings provided by the project staff, availability of group funds for buying inputs even after the project, uniting home garden group members in a cooperative, resource leveraging by local institutions through group lobbying, farmers innovations for maintaining home garden diversity and continuous backstopping support by few active members as local resource persons to other members are some additional factors contributing to sustain and/or improve the home garden status by the resource-poor and disadvantaged group.

Keywords: food-based nutrition, home garden, resource-poor and disadvantaged group, sustained impact

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. Individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) Which impact has the individual risk-willingness on BMI decisions? And ii) how do group interaction effects impact BMI decisions? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, the applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, decision-making, group biases, group decisions, group-interaction effects, risk-willingness

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Authors: Meng Wang

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Historically, young members (children) in the society have been oppressed by adults through direct violent acts. Direct violence was evident in rampant child labor and child maltreatment cases. After acknowledging the rights of children from the United Nations, it is believed in public that children have been protected against direct physical violence. Nevertheless, at present, this paper argues from Foucauldian and disability study standpoints that similar to the old times, children are oppressed objects in the context of child play, which is constructed by adults to substitute direct violence in regulating children. Particularly, this paper suggests that on the one hand, preschool play is a new way that adults adopt to oppress preschoolers and regulate the society as a whole; on the other hand, preschoolers are taught how to play as an acquired skill and master self-regulation through play. There is a line of contemporary research that centers on child play from social constructivism perspective. Yet, current teaching practices pertaining to child play including guided child play and free play, in fact, serve the interest of adults and society at large. By acknowledging and deconstructing the prevalence of 'evidence-based best practice' in early childhood education field within western society, reconstruction of child-adult power relation could be achieved and alternative truth could be found in early childhood education. To support the argument of this paper, an on-going observational case study is conducted in a preschool setting in the United States. Age range of children is 2.5 to 4 years old. Approximately 10 children (5 boys) are participating in this case study. Observation is conducted throughout the weekdays as children follow through the classroom routine with a lead and an assistant teacher. Classroom teachers are interviewed pertaining to their classroom management strategies. Preliminary research finding of this case study suggested that preschool teachers tended to utilize scenarios from preschoolers’ dramatic play to impart core cultural values to young children. These values were pre-determined by adults. In addition, if young children have failed to follow teachers' guidance in terms of playing in a correct way, children ran the risk of being excluded from the play scenario by peers and adults. Furthermore, this study tended to indicate that through child play, preschoolers are obliged to develop an internal violence system, that is self-regulation skill to regulate their own behavior; and if this internal system is unestablished based on various assessments by adults, then potentially there will be consequences of negative labeling and disabling toward young children intended by adults. In conclusion, this paper applies Foucauldian analysis into the context of child play. At present, within preschool, child play is not free as it seems to be. Young children are expected to perform cultural tasks through their play activities designed by adults. Adults utilize child play as technologies of governmentality to further predict and regulate future society at large.

Keywords: child play, developmentally appropriate practice, DAP, poststructuralism, technologies of governmentality

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Guo Bingkun

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With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous improvement of urbanization level, people's living standards have undergone tremendous changes, and more and more people are gathering in cities. The demand for urban residents' housing has been greatly released in the past decade. The demand for housing and related construction land required for urban development has brought huge pressure to urban operations, and land prices have also risen rapidly in the short term. On the other hand, from the comparison of the eastern and western regions of China, there are also great differences in urban socioeconomics and land prices in the eastern, central and western regions. Although judging from the current overall market development, after more than ten years of housing market reform and development, the quality of housing and land use efficiency in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However, the current contradiction between land demand for urban socio-economic development and land supply, especially the contradiction between land supply and demand for urban residential land, has not been effectively alleviated. Since land is closely linked to all aspects of society, changes in land prices will be affected by many complex factors. Therefore, this paper studies the factors that may affect urban residential land prices and compares them among eastern, central and western cities, and finds the main factors that determine the level of urban residential land prices. This paper provides guidance for urban managers in formulating land policies and alleviating land supply and demand. It provides distinct ideas for improving urban planning and improving urban planning and promotes the improvement of urban management level. The research in this paper focuses on residential land prices. Generally, the indicators for measuring land prices mainly include benchmark land prices, land price level values, parcel land prices, etc. However, considering the requirements of research data continuity and representativeness, this paper chooses to use residential land price level values. Reflects the status of urban residential land prices. First of all, based on the existing research at home and abroad, the paper considers the two aspects of land supply and demand and, based on basic theoretical analysis, determines some factors that may affect urban housing, such as urban expansion, taxation, land reserves, population, and land benefits. Factors of land price and correspondingly selected certain representative indicators. Secondly, using conventional econometric analysis methods, we established a model of factors affecting urban residential land prices, quantitatively analyzed the relationship and intensity of influencing factors and residential land prices, and compared the differences in the impact of urban residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions. Compare similarities. Research results show that the main factors affecting China's urban residential land prices are urban expansion, land use efficiency, taxation, population size, and residents' consumption. Then, the main reason for the difference in residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions is the differences in urban expansion patterns, industrial structures, urban carrying capacity and real estate development investment.

Keywords: urban housing, urban planning, housing prices, comparative study

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Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

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In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 127