Search results for: scoring based risk assessment method

Authors: Sameen Masood, Muhammad Ali Jibran

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The frequent flood history in Pakistan has pronounced the need for disaster risk management. Various policies are formulated and steps are being taken by the government in order to cope with the flood effects. However, a much promising pro-active approach that is globally acknowledged is educating the masses regarding living with risk and uncertainty. Unfortunately, majority of the flood victims in Pakistan are poor and illiterate which also transpires as a significant cause of their distress. An illiterate population is not risk averse or equipped intellectually regarding how to prepare and protect against natural disasters. The current research utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach where the role of education (both formal and informal) and indigenous knowledge is explored with reference to disaster preparedness. The data was collected from the flood prone rural areas of Punjab. In the absence of disaster curriculum taught in formal schools, informal education disseminated by NGOs and relief and rehabilitation agencies was the only education given to the flood victims. However the educational attainment of flood victims highly correlated with their awareness regarding flood management and disaster preparedness. Moreover, lessons learned from past flood experience generated indigenous knowledge on the basis of which flood victims prepared themselves for any uncertainty. If the future policy regarding disaster preparation integrates indigenous knowledge and then delivers education on the basis of that, it is anticipated that the flood devastations can be much reduced. Education can play a vital role in amplifying perception of risk and taking precautionary measures for disaster. The findings of the current research will provide practical strategies where disaster preparedness through education has not yet been applied.

Keywords: education, disaster preparedness, illiterate population, risk management

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Authors: Marjan Moradi fard, Hossein Rassi, Masoud Houshmand

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Aim: Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting the morbidity and mortality of Iranian women. This disease is a result of collective alterations of oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes. Studies have produced conflicting results concerning the role of p53 codon 72 polymorphism (G>C) and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism (G>C) on the risk of several cancers; therefore, a research was performed to estimate the association between the p53 codon 72 polymorphism and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 45 archival breast cancer samples from Khatam hospital and 40 healthy samples were collected. Verification of each cancer reported in a relative was sought through the pathology reports of the hospital records. Then, DNA extracted from all samples by standard methods and p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes were analyzed using multiplex PCR. The tubules, mitotic activity, necrosis, polymorphism and grade of breast cancer were staged by Nottingham histological grading and immunohistochemical staining of the sections from the paraffin wax embedded tissues for the expression of ER, PR and p53 was carried out using a standard method. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Results: Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99 bp). According to the results, p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer in the study population. In this study, we established that tumors of p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype exhibited higher mitotic activity, higher polymorphism, lower necrosis, lower tubules, higher ER- and PR-negatives and lower TP53-positives than the other genotypes. Conclusion: The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype may effect breast cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes in combination with clinical parameters can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of breast cancers.

Keywords: breast cancer, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism, p53 codon 72 polymorphism, tumors, pathology reports

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a severe health problem which is common among obese individuals. The components of MetS are rather stable in adults compared to the components discussed for children. Due to the ambiguity in this group of the population, how to diagnose MetS in morbid obese (MO) children still constitutes a matter of discussion. For this purpose, a formula, which facilitates the diagnosis of MetS in MO children, was investigated. The aim of this study was to develop a formula which was capable of discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings. Study population comprised MO children. Age and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles of the children were above 99. Metabolic syndrome components were also determined. Elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP), elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), elevated triglycerides (TRG), and/or depressed high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS components for each child. Presence of at least two of these components confirmed that the case was MetS. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, there were forty-two MO children without MetS components. Second group was composed of forty-four MO children with at least two MetS components. Anthropometric measurements, including weight, height, waist, and hip circumferences, were performed following physical examination. Body mass index and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance values were calculated. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Institutional Non-Interventional Ethics Committee approved the study design. Blood pressure values were recorded. Routine biochemical analysis, including FBG, insulin (INS), TRG, HDL-C were performed. The performance and the clinical utility of the Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Metabolic Syndrome Index (DONMA MetS index) [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)*100] was tested. Appropriate statistical tests were applied to the study data. p value smaller than 0.05 was defined as significant. Metabolic syndrome index values were 41.6±5.1 in MO group and 104.4±12.8 in MetS group. Corresponding values for HDL-C values were 54.5±13.2 mg/dl and 44.2±11.5 mg/dl. There were statistically significant differences between the groups (p<0.001). Upon evaluation of the correlations between MetS index and HDL-C values, a much stronger negative correlation was found in MetS group (r=-0.515; p=0.001) in comparison with the correlation detected in MO group (r=-0.371; p=0.016). From these findings, it was concluded that the statistical significance degree of the difference between MO and MetS groups was highly acceptable for this recently introduced MetS index as expected. This was due to the involvement of all of the biochemically defined MetS components into the index. This is particularly important because each of these four parameters used in the formula is cardiac risk factor. Aside from discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings, MetS index introduced in this study is important from the cardiovascular risk point of view in MetS group of children.

Keywords: children, fasting blood glucose, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, index, insulin, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Byung Ho Jung, Dong Hoon Lim

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Logistic regression is a statistical method for analyzing a dataset in which there are one or more independent variables that determine an outcome. Logistic regression is used extensively in numerous disciplines, including the medical and social science fields. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating parameters in the logistic regression based on MapReduce framework with RHadoop that integrates R and Hadoop environment applicable to large scale data. There exist three learning algorithms for logistic regression, namely Gradient descent method, Cost minimization method and Newton-Rhapson's method. The Newton-Rhapson's method does not require a learning rate, while gradient descent and cost minimization methods need to manually pick a learning rate. The experimental results demonstrated that our learning algorithms using RHadoop can scale well and efficiently process large data sets on commodity hardware. We also compared the performance of our Newton-Rhapson's method with gradient descent and cost minimization methods. The results showed that our newton's method appeared to be the most robust to all data tested.

Keywords: big data, logistic regression, MapReduce, RHadoop

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Authors: Renáta Nagy, Alexandra Csongor, Vilmos Warta

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The presentation aims at eliciting insight into the results of ongoing research regarding evolving trends and attitudes towards online assessment of English and other languages. The focus pinpoints online as one of the most trending forms available during the global pandemic. The study was first initiated in 2019 in which its main target was to reveal the intriguing question of students’ and assessors’ attitudes towards online assessment. The research questions the attitudes towards the latest trends, possible online task types, and their advantages and disadvantages through an in-depth experimental process currently undergoing implementation. Material and methods include surveys, needs and wants analysis, and thorough investigations regarding candidates’ and assessors’ attitudes towards online tests in the field of languages. Over 400 respondents from more than 28 countries participated in the survey, which gives us an international and intercultural insight into how students with different cultural and educational background deal with the evolving online world. The results show the pandemic’s impact, which brought the slumbering online world of assessing roaring alive, fully operational, and now bears phenomenal relevance in today’s global education. Undeniably, the results can be used as a perspective in a vast array of contents. The survey hypothesized the generation of the 21st century expect everything readily available online, however, questions whether they are ready for this challenge are lurking in the background.

Keywords: assessment, english, intercultural, international, online, testing

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Authors: Alexandra-Veronica Luca, Letitia Petrescu

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Steel production is a major contributor to global warming potential. An average value of 1.83 tons of CO₂ is emitted for every ton of steel produced, resulting in over 3.3 Mt of CO₂ emissions each year. The present paper is focused on the investigation and comparison of two O₂ separation methods and two CO₂ capture technologies applicable to iron and steel industry. The O₂ used in steel production comes from an Air Separation Unit (ASU) using distillation or from air separation using membranes. The CO₂ capture technologies are represented by a two-stage membrane separation process and the gas-liquid absorption using methyl di-ethanol amine (MDEA). Process modelling and simulation tools, as well as environmental tools, are used in the present study. The production capacity of the steel mill is 4,000,000 tones/year. In order to compare the two CO₂ capture technologies in terms of efficiency, performance, and sustainability, the following cases have been investigated: Case 1: steel production using O₂ from ASU and no CO₂ capture; Case 2: steel production using O₂ from ASU and gas-liquid absorption for CO₂ capture; Case 3: steel production using O₂ from ASU and membranes for CO₂ capture; Case 4: steel production using O₂ from membrane separation method and gas-liquid absorption for CO₂ capture and Case-5: steel production using membranes for air separation and CO₂ capture. The O₂ separation rate obtained in the distillation technology was about 96%, and about 33% in the membrane technology. Similarly, the O₂ purity resulting in the conventional process (i.e. distillation) is higher compared to the O₂ purity obtained in the membrane unit (e.g., 99.50% vs. 73.66%). The air flow-rate required for membrane separation is about three times higher compared to the air flow-rate for cryogenic distillation (e.g., 549,096.93 kg/h vs. 189,743.82 kg/h). A CO₂ capture rate of 93.97% was obtained in the membrane case, while the CO₂ capture rate for the gas-liquid absorption was 89.97%. A quantity of 6,626.49 kg/h CO₂ with a purity of 95.45% is separated from the total 23,352.83 kg/h flue-gas in the membrane process, while with absorption of 6,173.94 kg/h CO₂ with a purity of 98.79% is obtained from 21,902.04 kg/h flue-gas and 156,041.80 kg/h MDEA is recycled. The simulation results, performed using ChemCAD process simulator software, lead to the conclusion that membrane-based technology can be a suitable alternative for CO₂ removal for steel production. An environmental evaluation using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology was also performed. Considering the electricity consumption, the performance, and environmental indicators, Case 3 can be considered the most effective. The environmental evaluation, performed using GaBi software, shows that membrane technology can lead to lower environmental emissions if membrane production is based on benzene derived from toluene hydrodealkilation and chlorine and sodium hydroxide are produced using mixed technologies.

Keywords: CO₂ capture, gas-liquid absorption, Life Cycle Assessment, membrane separation, steel production

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Authors: Simeon Mayala, Ida Herdlevær, Jonas Bull Haugsøen, Shamundeeswari Anandan, Sonia Gavasso, Morten Brun

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In this paper, we propose a minimum spanning tree-based method for segmenting brain tumors. The proposed method performs interactive segmentation based on the minimum spanning tree without tuning parameters. The steps involve preprocessing, making a graph, constructing a minimum spanning tree, and a newly implemented way of interactively segmenting the region of interest. In the preprocessing step, a Gaussian filter is applied to 2D images to remove the noise. Then, the pixel neighbor graph is weighted by intensity differences and the corresponding minimum spanning tree is constructed. The image is loaded in an interactive window for segmenting the tumor. The region of interest and the background are selected by clicking to split the minimum spanning tree into two trees. One of these trees represents the region of interest and the other represents the background. Finally, the segmentation given by the two trees is visualized. The proposed method was tested by segmenting two different 2D brain T1-weighted magnetic resonance image data sets. The comparison between our results and the standard gold segmentation confirmed the validity of the minimum spanning tree approach. The proposed method is simple to implement and the results indicate that it is accurate and efficient.

Keywords: brain tumor, brain tumor segmentation, minimum spanning tree, segmentation, image processing

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Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi

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Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Florge Francis A. Sy

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Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas with local and systemic complications. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a higher mortality rate. Laboratory parameters like the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean platelet volume (MPV) have been associated with SAP but with conflicting results. This study aims to determine the predictive value of these parameters on the severity and in-hospital mortality of AP. This retrospective, cross-sectional study was done in a private hospital in Cebu City, Philippines. One-hundred five patients were classified according to severity based on the modified Marshall scoring. The admitting hemogram, including the NLR, RDW, and MPV, was obtained from the complete blood count (CBC). Cut-off values for severity and in-hospital mortality were derived from the ROC. Association between NLR, RDW, and MPV with SAP and mortality were determined with a p-value of < 0.05 considered significant. The mean age for AP was 47.6 years, with 50.5% being male. Most had an unknown cause (49.5%), followed by a biliary cause (37.1%). Of the 105 patients, 23 patients had SAP, and 4 died. Older age, longer in-hospital duration, congestive heart failure, elevated creatinine, urea nitrogen, and white blood cell count were seen in SAP. The NLR was associated with in-hospital mortality using a cut-off of > 10.6 (OR 1.133, 95% CI, p-value 0.003) with 100% sensitivity, 70.3% specificity, 11.76% PPV and 100% NPV (AUC 0.855). The NLR was not associated with SAP. The RDW and MPV were not associated with SAP and mortality. The admitting NLR is, therefore, an easily accessible parameter that can predict in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis. Although the present study did not show an association of NLR with SAP nor RDW and MPV with both SAP and mortality, further studies are suggested to establish their clinical value.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis, mean platelet volume, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, red cell distribution width

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Authors: Fatemehsadat Mortazavizadeh, Amin Dehghani, Majid Mirzaei, Nurulhuda Binti Mohammad Ramli, Adnan Dehghani

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Flood is Malaysia's most common and serious natural disaster. Kelantan River Basin is a tropical basin that experiences a rainy season during North-East Monsoon from November to March. It is also one of the hardest hit areas in Peninsular Malaysia during the heavy monsoon rainfall. Considering the consequences of the flood events, it is essential to develop the flood inundation map as part of the mitigation approach. In this study, the delineation of flood inundation zone in the area of Kelantan River basin using a hydrodynamic model is done by HEC-RAS, QGIS and ArcMap. The streamflow data has been generated with the weather generator based on the observation data. Then, the data is statistically analyzed with the Extreme Value (EV1) method for 2-, 5-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The minimum depth, maximum depth, mean depth, and the standard deviation of all the scenarios, including the OBS, are observed and analyzed. Based on the results, generally, the value of the data increases with the return period for all the scenarios. However, there are certain scenarios that have different results, which not all the data obtained are increasing with the return period. Besides, OBS data resulted in the middle range within Scenario 1 to Scenario 40.

Keywords: flood inundation, kelantan river basin, hydrodynamic model, extreme value analysis

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Authors: Majeda S. Hammoud

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Background and Aim: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication affecting around 14% of pregnancies globally that carries short and long-term consequences to the mother and her child. Pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity is the most consistently and strongly associated modifiable risk factor with GDM development. This analysis aimed to determine whether vitamin D status during pregnancy modulates the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity/overweight on GDM risk while stratifying by maternal age. Methods: Data from the Kuwait Birth Cohort (KBC) study were analyzed, which enrolled pregnant women in the second or third trimester of gestation. Pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) was categorized as under/normal weight (<25.0), overweight (25.0 to <30.0), and obesity (≥30.0). 25 hydroxyvitamin D levels were measured in blood samples that were collected at recruitment and categorized as deficiency (<50 nmol/L) and insufficiency/sufficiency (≥50 nmol/L). GDM status was ascertained according to international guidelines. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations, and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Results: The analyzed study sample included a total of 982 pregnant women, with a mean (SD) age of 31.4 (5.2) years. The prevalence of GDM was estimated to be 17.3% (95% CI: 14.9-19.7), and the prevalence of pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity was 37.8% (95% CI: 34.8-40.8) and 28.8% (95% CI: 26.0-31.7), respectively. The prevalence of gestational vitamin D deficiency was estimated to be 55.3% (95% CI: 52.2-58.4). The association between pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity with GDM risk differed according to maternal age and gestational vitamin D status (Pinteraction[BMI × age × vitamin D = 0.047). Among pregnant women aged <35 years, prepregnancy obesity compared to under/normal weight was associated with increased GDM risk among women with gestational vitamin D deficiency (aOR: 3.65, 95% CI: 1.50-8.86, p = 0.004) and vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency (aOR: 2.55, 95% CI: 1.16-5.61, p = 0.019). In contrast, among pregnant women aged ≥35 years, pre-pregnancy obesity compared to under/normal weight was associated with increased GDM risk among women with gestational vitamin D deficiency (aOR: 9.70, 95% CI: 2.01-46.69, p = 0.005), but not among women with vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency (aOR: 1.46, 95% CI: 0.42-5.16, p = 0.553). Conclusion: The effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk is modulated by maternal age and gestational vitamin D status, with the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity being more pronounced among older pregnant women (aged ≥35 years) with gestational vitamin D deficiency compared to those with vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency. Whereas, among younger women (aged <35 years), the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk was not modulated by gestational vitamin D status. Therefore, vitamin D supplementation among pregnant women, specifically older women with pre-pregnancy obesity, may mitigate the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk.

Keywords: gestational diabetes mellitus, vitamin D, obesity, body mass index

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Authors: Evangelos G. Karvelas, Christos Liosis, Andreas Theodorakakos, Theodoros E. Karakasidis

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In the present work, a numerical method for the estimation of the appropriate gradient magnetic fields for optimum driving of the particles into the desired area inside the human body is presented. The proposed method combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Discrete Element Method (DEM) and Covariance Matrix Adaptation (CMA) evolution strategy for the magnetic navigation of nanoparticles. It is based on an iteration procedure that intents to eliminate the deviation of the nanoparticles from a desired path. Hence, the gradient magnetic field is constantly adjusted in a suitable way so that the particles’ follow as close as possible to a desired trajectory. Using the proposed method, it is obvious that the diameter of particles is crucial parameter for an efficient navigation. In addition, increase of particles' diameter decreases their deviation from the desired path. Moreover, the navigation method can navigate nanoparticles into the desired areas with efficiency approximately 99%.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CFD, covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy, discrete element method, DEM, magnetic navigation, spherical particles

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Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Aweke A. Mitiku, Endashaw Amuka

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Background: Under-five mortality is the likelihood that a baby will pass away before turning exactly 5 years old, represented as a percentage per 1,000 live births. Exploring the spatial distribution and identifying the temporal pattern is important to reducing under-five child mortality globally, including in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality and the spatiotemporal variation in Ethiopian administrative zones. Method: This study used the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data, which were collected using a two-stage sampling method. A total of 43,029 (10,873 in 2000, 9,861 in 2005, 11,654 in 2011, and 10,641 in 2016) weighted sample under-five child mortality was used. The space-time dynamic model was employed to account for spatial and time effects in 65 administrative zones in Ethiopia. Results: From the result of a general nesting spatial-temporal dynamic model, there was a significant space-time interaction effect [γ = -0.1444, 95 % CI (-0.6680, -0.1355)] for under-five mortality. The increase in the percentages of mothers illiteracy [𝛽 = 0.4501, 95% CI (0.2442, 0.6559)], not vaccinated[𝛽= 0.7681, 95% CI (0.5683, 0.9678)], unimproved water[𝛽= 0.5801, CI (0.3793, 0.7808)] were increased death rates for under five children while increased percentage of contraceptive use [𝛽= -0.6609, 95% CI (-0.8636, -0.4582)] and ANC visit > 4 times [𝛽= -0.1585, 95% CI(-0.1812, -0.1357)] were contributed to the decreased under-five mortality rate at the zone in Ethiopia. Conclusions: Even though the mortality rate for children under five has decreased over time, still there is still higher in different zones of Ethiopia. There exists spatial and temporal variation in under-five mortality among zones. Therefore, it is very important to consider spatial neighbourhoods and temporal context when aiming to avoid under-five mortality.

Keywords: under-five children mortality, space-time dynamic, spatiotemporal, Ethiopia

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Authors: Hamed Saremi, Suzan Taghavy, Seyed Mohammad Hanif Sanjari, Mostafa Kahali

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One of the challenges in manufacturing and service companies to provide a product or service is recognized Brand to consumers in target markets. They provide most of their processes under the same capacity. But the constant threat of devastating internal and external resources to prevent a rise Brands and more companies are recognizing the stages are bankrupt. This paper has tried to identify and analyze effective indicators of brand equity and focuses on indicators and presents a model of intelligent create a model to prevent possible damage. In this study, the identified indicators of brand equity are based on literature study and according to expert opinions, set of indicators By techniques DEMATEL Then to used Multi-Step Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference system (ANFIS) to design a multi-stage intelligent system for assessment of brand equity.

Keywords: brand, cosmetic product, ANFIS, DEMATEL

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Authors: Benoit Jauniaux, Azzam Ismail

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Objectives: The aims were to identify all incident adult cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) in the City of Leeds, UK, and to estimate the risk of cancer in IIMs as compared with the general population. Methods: Cases of IIMs were ascertained by review of all muscle biopsy reports from the Neuropathology Laboratory. A review of medical records was undertaken for each case to review the clinical diagnosis and collect epidemiological data such as age, ethnicity, sex, and comorbidities, including cancer. Leeds denominator population numbers were publicly obtainable. Results: Two hundred and six biopsy reports were identified, and after review, 50 incident cases were included in the study between June 2010 and January 2021. Out of the 50 cases, 27 were male, and 23 were female. The mean incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds throughout the study period was 7.42/1 000 000 person years. The proportion of IIMs cases with a confirmed malignancy was 22%. Compared to the general population, the relative risk of cancer was significantly greater in the IIMs population(31.56, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds was consistent with data from previous literature, however, disagreement exists between different methods of IIMs case inclusion due to varying clinical criteria and definitions. IIMs are associated with increased risk of cancer however, the pathogenesis of this relationship still requires investigating. This study supports the practice of malignancy screening and long-term surveillance in patients with IIMs.

Keywords: idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, myositis, polymyositis, dermatomyositis, malignancy, epidemiology, incidence rate, relative risk

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Authors: Feijoo E. Colomine Duran, Carlos E. Peñaloza Corredor

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There modeling component selection financial investment (Portfolio) a variety of problems that can be addressed with optimization techniques under evolutionary schemes. For his feature, the problem of selection of investment components of a dichotomous relationship between two elements that are opposed: The Portfolio Performance and Risk presented by choosing it. This relationship was modeled by Markowitz through a media problem (Performance) - variance (risk), ie must Maximize Performance and Minimize Risk. This research included the study and implementation of multi-objective evolutionary techniques to solve these problems, taking as experimental framework financial market equities Colombia Stock Exchange between 2009-2015. Comparisons three multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, namely the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) and Indicator-Based Selection in Multiobjective Search (IBEA) were performed using two measures well known performance: The Hypervolume indicator and R_2 indicator, also it became a nonparametric statistical analysis and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The comparative analysis also includes an evaluation of the financial efficiency of the investment portfolio chosen by the implementation of various algorithms through the Sharpe ratio. It is shown that the portfolio provided by the implementation of the algorithms mentioned above is very well located between the different stock indices provided by the Colombia Stock Exchange.

Keywords: finance, optimization, portfolio, Markowitz, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Daphine Namara, Jeremy I. Schwartz, Andrew K. Tusubira, Willi McFarland, Caroline Birungi, Fred C. Semitala, Martin Muddu

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Emerging evidence suggests a possible association between hyperglycemia and dolutegravir (DTG), a preferred first-line antiretroviral agent in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a need for rigorous studies to validate this association in the face of increasing DTG use and the burden of non-communicable diseases among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a case-control study to assess the risk of hyperglycemia associated with the use of DTG among PLHIV attending Mulago ISS Clinic in Kampala. Cases had hyperglycemia, while controls had no hyperglycemia, as confirmed by fasting plasma glucose and oral glucose tolerance tests. Demographic, laboratory, and clinical data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires and medical record abstraction. The analysis compared cases and controls on DTG use prior to diagnosis of hyperglycemia while controlling for potential confounders using multivariable logistic regression. We included 204 cases and 231 controls. In multivariable analysis, patients with prior DTG use had seven times greater odds of subsequent diagnosis of hyperglycemia compared to those who had non-DTG-based regimens (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.01, 95% CI 1.96-25.09). The odds of hyperglycemia also increased with age (56 years and above vs. 18-35, aOR 12.38, 95% CI 3.79-40.50) and hypertension (aOR 5.78, 95% CI 2.53-13.21). Our study demonstrates a strong association between prior DTG exposure and subsequent diagnosis of hyperglycemia. Given the benefits of DTG, wide-scale use, and the growing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in SSA, there is a need for systematic screening for hyperglycemia and consideration of alternate regimens for those at risk for DM.

Keywords: HIV, hyperglycemia, doluteravir, diabetes

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Authors: Syed Jamil H. Kazmi, Faiza Sarwar

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The Indus delta of Sindh Province forms the largest creeks zone of Pakistan. The Sindh coast starts from the mouth of Hab River and terminates at Sir Creek area. In this paper, we have considered the major creeks from the site of Bin Qasim Port in Karachi to Jetty of Keti Bunder in Thatta District. A general decline in the mangrove forest has been observed that within a span of last 25 years. The unprecedented human interventions damage the creeks habitat badly which includes haphazard urban development, industrial and sewage disposal, illegal cutting of mangroves forest, reduced and inconsistent fresh water flow mainly from Jhang and Indus rivers. These activities not only harm the creeks habitat but affected the fish stock substantially. Fishing is the main livelihood of coastal people but with the above-mentioned threats, it is also under enormous pressure by fish catches resulted in unchecked overutilization of the fish resources. This pressure is almost unbearable when it joins with deleterious fishing methods, uncontrolled fleet size, increase trash and by-catch of juvenile and illegal mesh size. Along with these anthropogenic interventions study area is under the red zone of tropical cyclones and active seismicity causing floods, sea intrusion, damage mangroves forests and devastation of fish stock. In order to sustain the natural resources of the Indus Creeks, this study was initiated with the support of FAO, WWF and NIO, the main purpose was to develop a Geo-Spatial dataset for fish stock assessment. The study has been spread over a year (2013-14) on monthly basis which mainly includes detailed fish stock survey, water analysis and few other environmental analyses. Environmental analysis also includes the habitat classification of study area which has done through remote sensing techniques for 22 years’ time series (1992-2014). Furthermore, out of 252 species collected, fifteen species from estuarine and marine groups were short-listed to measure the weight, health and growth of fish species at each creek under GIS data through SPSS system. Furthermore, habitat suitability analysis has been conducted by assessing the surface topographic and aspect derivation through different GIS techniques. The output variables then overlaid in GIS system to measure the creeks productivity. Which provided the results in terms of subsequent classes: extremely productive, highly productive, productive, moderately productive and less productive. This study has revealed the Geospatial tools utilization along with the evaluation of the fisheries resources and creeks habitat risk zone mapping. It has also been identified that the geo-spatial technologies are highly beneficial to identify the areas of high environmental risk in Sindh Creeks. This has been clearly discovered from this study that creeks with high rugosity are more productive than the creeks with low levels of rugosity. The study area has the immense potential to boost the economy of Pakistan in terms of fish export, if geo-spatial techniques are implemented instead of conventional techniques.

Keywords: fish stock, geo-spatial, productivity analysis, risk

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Authors: Takuya Sumi, Syoko Nukaya, Takashi Kaburagi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

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We propose an unconstrained measurement system for scratching motion based on mathematical model of unconstrained bed sensing method which could measure the bed vibrations due to the motion of the person on the bed. In this paper, we construct mathematical model of the unconstrained bed monitoring system, and we apply the unconstrained bed sensing method to the system for detecting scratching motion. The proposed sensors are placed under the three bed feet. When the person is lying on the bed, the output signals from the sensors are proportional to the magnitude of the vibration due to the scratching motion. Hence, we could detect the subject’s scratching motion from the output signals from ceramic sensors. We evaluated two scratching motions using the proposed system in the validity experiment as follows: First experiment is the subject’s scratching the right side cheek with his right hand, and; second experiment is the subject’s scratching the shin with another foot. As the results of the experiment, we recognized the scratching signals that enable the determination when the scratching occurred. Furthermore, the difference among the amplitudes of the output signals enabled us to estimate where the subject scratched.

Keywords: unconstrained bed sensing method, scratching, body movement, itchy, piezoceramics

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Authors: Sungsoo Na, Chanho Park

Abstract:

Lung cancer is one of the most common severe diseases driving to the death of a human. Lung cancer can be divided into two cases of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-SCLC (NSCLC), and about 80% of lung cancers belong to the case of NSCLC. From several studies, the correlation between epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and NSCLCs has been investigated. Therefore, EGFR inhibitor drugs such as gefitinib and erlotinib have been used as lung cancer treatments. However, the treatments result showed low response (10~20%) in clinical trials due to EGFR mutations that cause the drug resistance. Patients with resistance to EGFR inhibitor drugs usually are positive to KRAS mutation. Therefore, assessment of EGFR and KRAS mutation is essential for target therapies of NSCLC patient. In order to overcome the limitation of conventional therapies, overall EGFR and KRAS mutations have to be monitored. In this work, the only detection of EGFR will be presented. A variety of techniques has been presented for the detection of EGFR mutations. The standard detection method of EGFR mutation in ctDNA relies on real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Real-time PCR method provides high sensitive detection performance. However, as the amplification step increases cost effect and complexity increase as well. Other types of technology such as BEAMing, next generation sequencing (NGS), an electrochemical sensor and silicon nanowire field-effect transistor have been presented. However, those technologies have limitations of low sensitivity, high cost and complexity of data analyzation. In this report, we propose a label-free and high-sensitive detection method of lung cancer using quartz crystal microbalance based platform. The proposed platform is able to sense lung cancer mutant DNA with a limit of detection of 1nM.

Keywords: cancer DNA, resonance frequency, quartz crystal microbalance, lung cancer

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Authors: Ashraf Eid

Abstract:

Many formulas are set to estimate the pile load capacity based on the in-situ pile load tests. However, discrepancy is obvious between the results of these applications. Some formulas are more adequate than others with respect to soil formation and its characteristics. In this research, attempts were undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of the most well-known formulas based on a series of pile load tests carried out in Port Said city in the northeast of Egypt for major residential projects. Comparisons were undertaken between the different formulas supported by the results of in-situ Cone Penetration Tests (CPT). Based on this study, a guide for engineers for using the proper formula can be adopted with consideration of soil type and characteristics. The Egyptian Code which relies on the results of some formulas is involved in the study as a guiding aspect in the pile design.

Keywords: pile load formula, load test of piles, CPT, Egyptian code

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Authors: Dina Kon Mushid, Sage Ngoie, Tshimbalanga Madiba, Kabutakapua Kakanda

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Slope stability assessment is still the biggest challenge in mining activities and civil engineering structures. The slope in an opencast mine frequently reaches multiple weak layers that lead to the instability of the pit. Faults and soft layers throughout the rock would increase weathering and erosion rates. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the stability of the complex strata to figure out how stable they are. In the Dikuluwe-Mashamba (DIMA) area, the lithology of the stratum is a set of metamorphic rocks whose parent rocks are sedimentary rocks with a low degree of metamorphism. Thus, due to the composition and metamorphism of the parent rock, the rock formation is different in hardness and softness, which means that when the content of dolomitic and siliceous is high, the rock is hard. It is softer when the content of argillaceous and sandy is high. Therefore, from the vertical direction, it appears as a weak and hard layer, and from the horizontal direction, it seems like a smooth and hard layer in the same rock layer. From the structural point of view, the main structures in the mining area are the Dikuluwe dipping syncline and the Mashamba dipping anticline, and the occurrence of rock formations varies greatly. During the folding process of the rock formation, the stress will concentrate on the soft layer, causing the weak layer to be broken. At the same time, the phenomenon of interlayer dislocation occurs. This article aimed to evaluate the stability of metasedimentary rocks of the Dikuluwe-Mashamba (DIMA) open-pit mine using limit equilibrium and stereographic methods Based on the presence of statistical structural planes, the stereographic projection was used to study the slope's stability and examine the discontinuity orientation data to identify failure zones along the mine. The results revealed that the slope angle is too steep, and it is easy to induce landslides. The numerical method's sensitivity analysis showed that the slope angle and groundwater significantly impact the slope safety factor. The increase in the groundwater level substantially reduces the stability of the slope. Among the factors affecting the variation in the rate of the safety factor, the bulk density of soil is greater than that of rock mass, the cohesion of soil mass is smaller than that of rock mass, and the friction angle in the rock mass is much larger than that in the soil mass. The analysis showed that the rock mass structure types are mostly scattered and fragmented; the stratum changes considerably, and the variation of rock and soil mechanics parameters is significant.

Keywords: slope stability, weak layer, safety factor, limit equilibrium method, stereography method

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Reda Madi

Abstract:

The problem of natural disasters in general and flooding in particular is a topic which marks a memorable action in the world and specifically in cities and large urban areas. Torrential floods and faster flows pose a major problem in urban area. Indeed, a better management of risks of floods becomes a growing necessity that must mobilize technical and scientific means to curb the adverse consequences of this phenomenon, especially in the Saharan cities in arid climate. The aim of this study is to deploy a basic calculation approach based on a hydrologic and hydraulic quantification for locating the black spots in urban areas generated by the flooding and to locate the areas that are vulnerable to flooding. The principle of flooding method is applied to the city of Ghardaia to identify vulnerable areas to inundation and to establish maps management and prevention against the risks of flooding.

Keywords: Alea, Beni Mzab, cartography, HEC-RAS, inundation, torrential, vulnerability, wadi

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Authors: T. Hansen

Abstract:

Many consumers are uncertain of what financial borrowing behavior may serve their interests in the best way. This is important since consumers’ risky financial decisions may not only negatively affect their short-term liquidity but may haunt them for years after they are made. Obviously, this is especially critical for young adults who often carry large amounts of student loans or credit card debt, which in turn may hinder their future ability to obtain financial healthiness. Even though factors such as financial knowledge, attitudes towards risk, gender, and motivations of borrowing, among others, are known to influence consumer borrowing behavior, no existing model comprehensibly describes the mechanisms behind young adults’ risky borrowing behavior. This is unfortunate since a better understanding of the relationships between such factors and young adults’ risky borrowing behavior may be of value to financial service providers and financial authorities aiming to improve young adults’ borrowing behavior. This research extends prior research by developing a conceptual framework for the purpose of understanding young adults’ risky borrowing behavior. The study is based on two survey samples comprising 488 young adults aged 18-25 who have not obtained a risky loan (sample 1) and 214 young adults aged 18-25 who already have obtained a risky loan (sample 2), respectively. The results suggest several psychological, sociological, and behavioral factors that may influence young adults’ intentional risky borrowing behavior, which in turn is shown to affect actualized risky borrowing behavior. We also found that the relationship between intentional risky borrowing behavior and actualized risky borrowing behavior is negatively moderated by perceived risk – but not by perceived complexity. In particular, the results of this study indicate that public policy makers, banks and financial educators should seek to eliminate less desirable social norms on how to behave financially. In addition, they should seek to enhance young adults’ risky borrowing perceived risk, thereby preventing that intentional risky borrowing behavior translates into actualized risky behavior.

Keywords: financial services, risky borrowing behavior, young adults, financial knowledge, social norms, perceived risk, financial trust, public financial policy

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Authors: Maryam Hamlehdar, Guillermo A. Narsilio

Abstract:

To enhance the feasibility of utilising geothermal hot sedimentary aquifers (HSAs) for clean hydrogen production, one approach is the implementation of solar-integrated geothermal energy systems. This detailed modelling study conducts a thermo-economic assessment of an advanced Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC)-based hydrogen production system that uses low-temperature geothermal reservoirs, with a specific focus on hot sedimentary aquifers (HSAs) over a 30-year period. In the proposed hybrid system, solar-thermal energy is used to raise the water temperature extracted from the geothermal production well. This temperature increase leads to a higher steam output, powering the turbine and subsequently enhancing the electricity output for running the electrolyser. Thermodynamic modeling of a parabolic trough solar (PTS) collector is developed and integrated with modeling for a geothermal-based configuration. This configuration includes a closed regenerator cycle (CRC), proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser, and thermoelectric generator (TEG). Following this, the study investigates the impact of solar energy use on the temperature enhancement of the geothermal reservoir. It assesses the resulting consequences on the lifecycle performance of the hydrogen production system in comparison with a standalone geothermal system. The results indicate that, with the appropriate solar collector area, a combined solar-geothermal hydrogen production system outperforms a standalone geothermal system in both cost and rate of production. These findings underscore a solar-assisted geothermal hybrid system holds the potential to generate lower-cost hydrogen with enhanced efficiency, thereby boosting the appeal of numerous low to medium-temperature geothermal sources for hydrogen production.

Keywords: clean hydrogen production, integrated solar-geothermal, low-temperature geothermal energy, numerical modelling

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Authors: Omid Giahi, Ebrahim Darvishi, Mahdi Akbarzadeh

Abstract:

Introduction: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is one of the most prevalent work-related musculoskeletal disorders in which a lot of risk factors are involved that. The present study focuses on the relation between personal, psycho-social and occupational risk factors and LBP severity in industrial workers. Materials and Methods: This research was a case-control study which was conducted in Kurdistan province. 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 39.9 ± 10.45) with LBP were selected as the case group, and 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 37.2 ± 8.5) without LBP were assigned into the control group. All participants were selected from various industrial units, and they had similar occupational conditions. The required data including demographic information (BMI, smoking, alcohol, and family history), occupational (posture, mental workload (MWL), force, vibration and repetition), and psychosocial factors (stress, occupational satisfaction and security) of the participants were collected via consultation with occupational medicine specialists, interview, and the related questionnaires and also the NASA-TLX software and REBA worksheet. Chi-square test, logistic regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to analyze the data. For analysis of data, IBM Statistics SPSS 24 and Mplus6 software have been used. Results: 114 (77%) of the individuals were male and 86 were (23%) female. Mean Career length of the Case Group and Control Group were 10.90 ± 5.92, 9.22 ± 4.24, respectively. The statistical analysis of the data revealed that there was a significant correlation between the Posture, Smoking, Stress, Satisfaction, and MWL with occupational LBP. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) derived from a logistic regression model were 2.7 (1.27-2.24) and 2.5 (2.26-5.17) and 3.22 (2.47-3.24) for Stress, MWL, and Posture, respectively. Also, the SEM analysis of the personal, psycho-social and occupational factors with LBP revealed that there was a significant correlation. Conclusion: All three broad categories of risk factors simultaneously increase the risk of occupational LBP in the workplace. But, the risks of Posture, Stress, and MWL have a major role in LBP severity. Therefore, prevention strategies for persons in jobs with high risks for LBP are required to decrease the risk of occupational LBP.

Keywords: industrial workers occupational, low back pain, occupational risk factors, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Jesmin Akter, Chang Hyuk Ahn, Ilho Kim, Fumitake Nishimura, Jaiyeop Lee

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This study aimed to compare two pre-treatment and two RNA extraction methods, namely PEG, and Nano bubble, Viral RNA Soil, and Mini Kit, in terms of their efficiency in detecting SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV in influent and 1st sedimentation samples from a wastewater treatment plant. The extracted RNA samples were quantified and evaluated for purity, yield, and integrity. The results indicated that the nanobubble PEG method provided the highest yield of RNA, while the QIAamp Viral RNA Mini Kit produced the purest RNA samples. In terms of sensitivity and specificity, all these methods were able to detect SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV in both influent and 1st sedimentation samples. However, the nanobubble PEG method showed slightly higher sensitivity compared to the other methods. These findings suggest that the choice of RNA extraction method should depend on the downstream application and the quality of the RNA required. The study also highlights the potential of wastewater-based epidemiology as an effective and non-invasive method for monitoring the spread of infectious diseases in a community.

Keywords: influent, PMMoV, SARS-CoV-2, wastewater based epidemiology

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Authors: Manpreet Kaur, Badaruddoza, Sandeep Kaur Brar

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The increasing prevalence of adolescent obesity is one of the major causes to be hypertensive in adulthood. Various statistical methods have been applied to examine the performance of anthropometric indices for the identification of adverse cardiovascular risk profile. The present work was undertaken to determine the significant traditional risk factors through principal component factor analysis (PCFA) among population based Punjabi adolescents aged 10-18 years. Data was collected among adolescent children from different schools situated in urban areas of Punjab, India. Principal component factor analysis (PCFA) was applied to extract orthogonal components from anthropometric and physiometric variables. Association between components were explained by factor loadings. The PCFA extracted four factors, which explained 84.21%, 84.06% and 83.15% of the total variance of the 14 original quantitative traits among boys, girls and combined subjects respectively. Factor 1 has high loading of the traits that reflect adiposity such as waist circumference, BMI and skinfolds among both sexes. However, waist circumference and body mass index are the indicator of abdominal obesity which increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The loadings of these two traits have found maximum in girls adolescents (WC=0.924; BMI=0.905). Therefore, factor 1 is the strong indicator of atherosclerosis in adolescents. Factor 2 is predominantly loaded with blood pressures and related traits (SBP, DBP, MBP and pulse rate) which reflect the risk of essential hypertension in adolescent girls and combined subjects, whereas, factor 2 loaded with obesity related traits in boys (weight and hip circumferences). Comparably, factor 3 is loaded with blood pressures in boys and with height and WHR in girls, while factor 4 contains high loading of pulse pressure among boys, girls and combined group of adolescents.

Keywords: adolescent obesity, cvd, hypertension, punjabi population

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Authors: Marta Nawrocka

Abstract:

In each of the legal proceedings, in which expert evidence is carried out, a major concern is the assessment of the evidential value of expert reports. Judicial institutions, while making decisions, rely heavily on the expert reports, because they usually do not possess 'special knowledge' from a certain fields of science which makes it impossible for them to verify the results presented in the processes. In handwriting studies, the standards of analysis are developed. They unify procedures used by experts in comparing signs and in constructing expert reports. However, the methods used by experts are usually of a qualitative nature. They rely on the application of knowledge and experience of expert and in effect give significant range of margin in the assessment. Moreover, the standards used by experts are still not very precise and the process of reaching the conclusions is poorly understood. The above-mentioned circumstances indicate that expert opinions in the field of handwriting analysis, for many reasons, may not be sufficiently reliable. It is assumed that this state of affairs has its source in a very low level of intersubjectivity of measuring scales and analysis procedures, which consist elements of this kind of analysis. Intersubjectivity is a feature of cognition which (in relation to methods) indicates the degree of consistency of results that different people receive using the same method. The higher the level of intersubjectivity is, the more reliable and credible the method can be considered. The aim of the conducted research was to determine the degree of intersubjectivity of the methods used by the experts from the scope of handwriting analysis. 30 experts took part in the study and each of them received two signatures, with varying degrees of readability, for analysis. Their task was to distinguish graphic characteristics in the signature, estimate the evidential value of the found characteristics and estimate the evidential value of the signature. The obtained results were compared with each other using the Alpha Krippendorff’s statistic, which numerically determines the degree of compatibility of the results (assessments) that different people receive under the same conditions using the same method. The estimation of the degree of compatibility of the experts' results for each of these tasks allowed to determine the degree of intersubjectivity of the studied method. The study showed that during the analysis, the experts identified different signature characteristics and attributed different evidential value to them. In this scope, intersubjectivity turned out to be low. In addition, it turned out that experts in various ways called and described the same characteristics, and the language used was often inconsistent and imprecise. Thus, significant differences have been noted on the basis of language and applied nomenclature. On the other hand, experts attributed a similar evidential value to the entire signature (set of characteristics), which indicates that in this range, they were relatively consistent.

Keywords: forensic sciences experts, handwriting analysis, inter-rater reliability, reliability of methods

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Authors: B. Kishore Kumar, Rakesh Pogula, T. Kishore Kumar

Abstract:

The steepness of an audio signal which is produced by the musical instruments, specifically percussive instruments is the perception of how high tone or low tone which can be considered as a frequency closely related to the fundamental frequency. This paper presents a novel method for silence removal and segmentation of music signals produced by the percussive instruments and the performance of proposed method is studied with the help of MATLAB simulations. This method is based on two simple features, namely the signal energy and the spectral centroid. As long as the feature sequences are extracted, a simple thresholding criterion is applied in order to remove the silence areas in the sound signal. The simulations were carried on various instruments like drum, flute and guitar and results of the proposed method were analyzed.

Keywords: percussive instruments, spectral energy, spectral centroid, silence removal

Procedia PDF Downloads 415