Search results for: circular economy model

Authors: Jia Zhang, Fengmei Yao, Yanjing Tan

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The accurate estimation of crop yield is of great importance for the food security. In this study, a process-based mechanism model was modified to estimate yield of C4 crop by modifying the carbon metabolic pathway in the photosynthesis sub-module of the RS-P-YEC (Remote-Sensing-Photosynthesis-Yield estimation for Crops) model. The yield was calculated by multiplying net primary productivity (NPP) and the harvest index (HI) derived from the ratio of grain to stalk yield. The modified RS-P-YEC model was used to simulate maize yield in the Northeast China Plain during the period 2002-2011. The statistical data of maize yield from study area was used to validate the simulated results at county-level. The results showed that the Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was 0.827 (P < 0.01) between the simulated yield and the statistical data, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 712 kg/ha with a relative error (RE) of 9.3%. From 2002-2011, the yield of maize planting zone in the Northeast China Plain was increasing with smaller coefficient of variation (CV). The spatial pattern of simulated maize yield was consistent with the actual distribution in the Northeast China Plain, with an increasing trend from the northeast to the southwest. Hence the results demonstrated that the modified process-based model coupled with remote sensing data was suitable for yield prediction of maize in the Northeast China Plain at the spatial scale.

Keywords: process-based model, C4 crop, maize yield, remote sensing, Northeast China Plain

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Authors: Xu Jinsheng, Tong Xin, Zheng Jian, Zhou Changsheng

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The NEPE (nitrate ester plasticized polyether) propellant is a kind of particle filling material with relatively high filling fraction. The experimental results show that the microcracks, microvoids and dewetting can cause the stress softening of the material. In this paper, a series of mechanical testing in inclusion with CCD technique were conducted to analyze the evolution of internal defects of propellant. The volume expansion function of the particle filling material was established by measuring of longitudinal and transverse strain with optical deformation measurement system. By analyzing the defects and internal damages of the material, a visco-hyperelastic constitutive model based on free energy theory was proposed incorporating damage function. The proposed constitutive model could accurately predict the mechanical properties of uniaxial tensile tests and tensile-relaxation tests.

Keywords: dewetting, constitutive model， uniaxial tensile tests, visco-hyperelastic, nonlinear

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Shin-Han Lin

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In this research, a mathematical model for integrated evaluation of green design and green manufacturing processes is presented. To design a product, there can be alternative options to design the detailed components to fulfill the same product requirement. In the design alternative cases, the components of the product can be designed with different materials and detailed specifications. If several design alternative cases are proposed, the different materials and specifications can affect the manufacturing processes. In this paper, a new concept for integrating green design and green manufacturing processes is presented. A green design can be determined based the manufacturing processes of the designed product by evaluating the green criteria including energy usage and environmental impact, in addition to the traditional criteria of manufacturing cost. With this concept, a mathematical model is developed to find the green design and the associated green manufacturing processes. In the mathematical model, the cost items include material cost, manufacturing cost, and green related cost. The green related cost items include energy cost and environmental cost. The objective is to find the decisions of green design and green manufacturing processes to achieve the minimized total cost. In practical applications, the decision-making can be made to select a good green design case and its green manufacturing processes. In this presentation, an example product is illustrated. It shows that the model is practical and useful for integrated evaluation of green design and green manufacturing processes.

Keywords: supply chain management, green supply chain, green design, green manufacturing, mathematical model

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Authors: Rizka Yunita, Mas Aji Rizki Wijayanto

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Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is the solution to explain how fluid dynamics behavior. In this work, we obtain the effect of channel width of two-dimensional fluid visualization. Using a horizontal water tunnel and flowing soap film, we got a visualization of continuous film that can be observe a graphical overview of the flow that occurs on a space or field in which the fluid flow. The horizontal water tunnel we used, divided into three parts, expansion area, parallel area that used to test the data, and contraction area. The width of channel is the boundary of parallel area with the originally width of 7.2 cm, and the variation of channel width we observed is about 1 cm and its times. To compute the velocity, vortex shedding, and other physical parameters of fluid, we used the cyclinder circular as an obstacle to create a von Karman vortex in fluid and analyzed that phenomenon by using Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV) method and comparing Reynolds number and Strouhal number from the visualization we got. More than width the channel, the film is more turbulent and have a separation zones that occurs of uncontinuous flowing fluid.

Keywords: flow visualization, width of channel, vortex, Reynolds number, Strouhal number

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Authors: Nikola Tomasevic, Marko Batic, Sanja Vranes

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Emerging Semantic Web technologies can be seen as the next step in evolution of the intelligent facility management systems. Particularly, this considers increased usage of open source and/or standardized concepts for data classification and semantic interpretation. To deliver such facility management systems, providing the comprehensive integration and interoperability platform in from of the facility data model is a prerequisite. In this paper, one of the possible modelling approaches to provide such integrative facility data model which was based on the ontology modelling concept was presented. Complete ontology development process, starting from the input data acquisition, ontology concepts definition and finally ontology concepts population, was described. At the beginning, the core facility ontology was developed representing the generic facility infrastructure comprised of the common facility concepts relevant from the facility management perspective. To develop the data model of a specific facility infrastructure, first extension and then population of the core facility ontology was performed. For the development of the full-blown facility data models, Malpensa and Fiumicino airports in Italy, two major European air-traffic hubs, were chosen as a test-bed platform. Furthermore, the way how these ontology models supported the integration and interoperability of the overall airport energy management system was analyzed as well.

Keywords: airport ontology, energy management, facility data model, ontology modeling

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Authors: Alberto Alfano, Sergio D’ambrosio, Darshankumar Parecha, Donatella Cimini, Chiara Schiraldi.

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The main objective of this study regards the setup of an efficient small-scale platform for the conversion of local renewable waste materials, such as whey, into added-value products, thereby reducing environmental impact and costs deriving from the disposal of processing waste products. The buffalo milk whey derived from the cheese-making process, called second cheese whey, is the main by-product of the dairy industry. Whey is the main and most polluting by-product obtained from cheese manufacturing consisting of lactose, lactic acid, proteins, and salts, making whey an added-value product. In Italy, and in particular, in the Campania region, soft cheese production needs a large volume of liquid waste, especially during late spring and summer. This project is part of a circular economy perspective focused on the conversion of potentially polluting and difficult to purify waste into a resource to be exploited, and it embodies the concept of the three “R”: reduce, recycle, and reuse. Special focus was paid to the production of health-promoting biomolecules and biopolymers, which may be exploited in different segments of the food and pharmaceutical industries. These biomolecules may be recovered through appropriate processes and reused in an attempt to obtain added value products. So, ultrafiltration and nanofiltration processes were performed to fractionate bioactive components starting from buffalo milk whey. In this direction, the present study focused on the implementation of a downstream process that converts waste generated from food and food processing industries into added value products with potential applications. Owing to innovative downstream and biotechnological processes, rather than a waste product may be considered a resource to obtain high added value products, such as food supplements (probiotics), cosmeceuticals, biopolymers, and recyclable purified water. Besides targeting gastrointestinal disorders, probiotics such as Lactobacilli have been reported to improve immunomodulation and protection of the host against infections caused by viral and bacterial pathogens. Interestingly, also inactivated microbial (probiotic) cells and their metabolic products, indicated as parabiotic and postbiotics, respectively, have a crucial role and act as mediators in the modulation of the host’s immune function. To boost the production of biomass (both viable and/or heat inactivated cells) and/or the synthesis of growth-related postbiotics, such as EPS, efficient and sustainable fermentation processes are necessary. Based on a “zero-waste” approach, wastes generated from local industries can be recovered and recycled to develop sustainable biotechnological processes to obtain probiotics as well as post and parabiotic, to be tested as bioactive compounds against gastrointestinal disorders. The results have shown it was possible to recover an ultrafiltration retentate with suitable characteristics to be used in skin dehydration, to perform films (i.e., packaging for food industries), or as a wound repair agent and a nanofiltration retentate to recover lactic acid and carbon sources (e.g., lactose, glucose..) used for microbial cultivation. On the side, the last goal is to obtain purified water that can be reused throughout the process. In fact, water reclamation and reuse provide a unique and viable opportunity to augment traditional water supplies, a key issue nowadays.

Keywords: biotech process, downstream process, probiotic growth, from waste to product, buffalo whey

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Authors: Abdelhafid Zenati, Mohamed Tadjine

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The mathematical formulation of biomedical problems is an important phase to understand and predict the dynamic of the controlled population. In this paper we perform a stability analysis of a coupled model for healthy and cancerous cells dynamics in Acute Myeloid Leukemia, this represents our first aim. Second, we illustrate the effect of the interconnection between healthy and cancer cells. The PDE-based model is transformed to a nonlinear distributed state space model (delay system). For an equilibrium point of interest, necessary and sufficient conditions of global asymptotic stability are given. Thus, we came up to give necessary and sufficient conditions of global asymptotic stability of the origin and the healthy situation and control of the dynamics of normal hematopoietic stem cells and cancerous during myelode Acute leukemia. Simulation studies are given to illustrate the developed results.

Keywords: distributed delay, global stability, modelling, nonlinear models, PDE, state space

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Authors: Abdulrahman M. Qahtani, Gary. B. Wills, Andy. M. Gravell

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Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: customisation software products, global software engineering, local decision making, requirement engineering, simulation model

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Authors: Youb Said, Fourar Ali

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To describe the influence of bottom roughness on the free surface flows by numerical modeling, a two-dimensional model was developed. The equations of continuity and momentum (Naviers Stokes equations) are solved by the finite volume method. We considered a turbulent flow in an open channel with a bottom roughness. For our simulations, the K-ε model was used. After setting the initial and boundary conditions and solve the equations set, we were able to achieve the following results: vortex forming in the hollow causing substantial energy dissipation in the obstacle areas that form the bottom roughness. The comparison of our results with experimental ones shows a good agreement in terms of the results in the rough area. However, in other areas, differences were more or less important. These differences are in areas far from the bottom, especially the free surface area just after the bottom. These disagreements are probably due to experimental constants used by the k-ε model.

Keywords: modeling, free surface flow, turbulence, bottom roughness, finite volume, K-ε model, energy dissipation

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Authors: V. Rashtchi, H. Bizhani, F. R. Tatari

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This paper presents a new online loss minimization for an induction motor drive. Among the many loss minimization algorithms (LMAs) for an induction motor, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) has the advantages of fast response and high accuracy. However, the performance of the PSO and other optimization algorithms depend on the accuracy of the modeling of the motor drive and losses. In the development of the loss model, there is always a trade off between accuracy and complexity. This paper presents a new online optimization to determine an optimum flux level for the efficiency optimization of the vector-controlled induction motor drive. An induction motor (IM) model in d-q coordinates is referenced to the rotor magnetizing current. This transformation results in no leakage inductance on the rotor side, thus the decomposition into d-q components in the steady-state motor model can be utilized in deriving the motor loss model. The suggested algorithm is simple for implementation.

Keywords: induction machine, loss minimization, magnetizing current, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Nader Khalafian, Mohsen Ghaderi

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Field observations have revealed many examples of structures which were damaged due to ground surface deformation caused by the faulting phenomena. In this paper some efforts were made in order to estimate the length and location of the ground surface where large displacements were created due to the reverse faulting. This research has conducted in two steps; (1) in the first step, a 2D explicit finite element model were developed using ABAQUS software. A subroutine for Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with strain softening model was developed by the authors in order to properly model the stress strain behavior of the soil in the fault rapture zone. The results of the numerical analysis were verified with the results of available centrifuge experiments. Reasonable coincidence was found between the numerical and experimental data. (2) In the second step, the effects of the fault dip angle (δ), depth of soil layer (H), dilation and friction angle of sand (ψ and φ) and the amount of fault offset (d) on the soil surface displacement and fault rupture path were investigated. An artificial neural network-based model (ANN), as a powerful prediction tool, was developed to generate a general model for predicting faulting characteristics. A properly sized database was created to train and test network. It was found that the length and location of the zone of displaced ground surface can be accurately estimated using the proposed model.

Keywords: reverse faulting, surface deformation, numerical, neural network

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Authors: A. M. John-Otumu, M. M. Rahman, M. C. Onuoha, E. P. Ojonugwa

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A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for predicting Lassa fever was built using Python 3.8.0 programming language, alongside Keras 2.2.4 and TensorFlow 2.6.1 libraries as the development environment in order to reduce the current high risk of Lassa fever in West Africa, particularly in Nigeria. The study was prompted by some major flaws in existing conventional laboratory equipment for diagnosing Lassa fever (RT-PCR), as well as flaws in AI-based techniques that have been used for probing and prognosis of Lassa fever based on literature. There were 15,679 blood smear microscopic image datasets collected in total. The proposed model was trained on 70% of the dataset and tested on 30% of the microscopic images in avoid overfitting. A 3x3x3 convolution filter was also used in the proposed system to extract features from microscopic images. The proposed CNN-based model had a recall value of 96%, a precision value of 93%, an F1 score of 95%, and an accuracy of 94% in predicting and accurately classifying the images into clean or infected samples. Based on empirical evidence from the results of the literature consulted, the proposed model outperformed other existing AI-based techniques evaluated. If properly deployed, the model will assist physicians, medical laboratory scientists, and patients in making accurate diagnoses for Lassa fever cases, allowing the mortality rate due to the Lassa fever virus to be reduced through sound decision-making.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, blood smear, CNN, deep learning, Lassa fever

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Authors: Malihe Motiei, Nor Hidayati Zakaria, Davide Aloini

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This study aims to present a method to develop the failure measurement model for ERP post-implementation. To achieve this outcome, the study firstly evaluates the suitability of Technology-Organization-Environment framework for the proposed conceptual model. This study explains how to discover the constructs and subsequently to design and evaluate the constructs as formative or reflective. Constructs are used including reflective and purely formative. Then, the risk dimensions are investigated to determine the instruments to examine the impact of risk on ERP failure after implementation. Two construct as formative constructs consist inadequate implementation and poor organizational decision making. Subsequently six construct as reflective construct include technical risks, operational risks, managerial risks, top management risks, lack of external risks, and user’s inefficiency risks. A survey was conducted among Iranian industries to collect data. 69 data were collected from manufacturing sectors and the data were analyzed by Smart PLS software. The results indicated that all measurements included 39 critical risk factors were acceptable for the ERP post-implementation failure model.

Keywords: critical risk factors (CRFs), ERP projects, ERP post-implementation, measurement instruments, ERP system failure measurement model

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Authors: Lakhoua Najeh

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Aims of the work: After a presentation of the functionality of an example of a mechatronic system which is a paint mixer system, we present the concepts of modeling and safe operation. This paper briefly discusses how to model and protect the functioning of a mechatronic system relying mainly on functional analysis and safe operation techniques. Methods: For the study of an example of a mechatronic system, we use methods for external functional analysis that illustrate the relationships between a mechatronic system and its external environment. Thus, we present the Safe-Structured Analysis Design Technique method (Safe-SADT) which allows the representation of a mechatronic system. A model of operating safety and automation is proposed. This model enables us to use a functional analysis technique of the mechatronic system based on the GRAFCET (Graphe Fonctionnel de Commande des Etapes et Transitions: Step Transition Function Chart) method; study of the safe operation of the mechatronic system based on the Safe-SADT method; automation of the mechatronic system based on a software tool. Results: The expected results are to propose a model and safe operation of a mechatronic system. This methodology enables us to analyze the relevance of the different models based on Safe-SADT and GRAFCET in relation to the control and monitoring functions and to study the means allowing exploiting their synergy. Conclusion: In order to propose a general model of a mechatronic system, a model of analysis, safety operation and automation of a mechatronic system has been developed. This is how we propose to validate this methodology through a case study of a paint mixer system.

Keywords: mechatronic systems, system modeling, safe operation, Safe-SADT

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Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

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The ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on the Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to take into account other important criteria. From these models, we will consider the ZF model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index can affect the ABC items classification. We will then focus on the weights assigned to each index and propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model

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Authors: Arjun Paul, Adrijit Goswami

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In our present work, an economic order quantity inventory model with shortages is developed where holding cost is expressed as linearly increasing function of time and demand rate is a ramp type function of time. The items considered in the model are deteriorating in nature so that a small fraction of the items is depleted with the passage of time. In order to consider a more realistic situation, the deterioration rate is assumed to follow a continuous uniform distribution with the parameters involved being triangular fuzzy numbers. The inventory manager offers his customer a discount in case he is willing to backorder his demand when there is a stock-out. The optimum ordering policy and the optimum discount offered for each backorder are determined by minimizing the total cost in a replenishment interval. For better illustration of our proposed model in both the crisp and fuzzy sense and for providing richer insights, a numerical example is cited to exemplify the policy and to analyze the sensitivity of the model parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy deterioration rate, price discount on backorder, ramp type demand, shortage, time varying holding cost

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Authors: Arash Gharibi

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Mankind has always used models to solve problems. Essentially, models are simplified versions of reality, whose need stems from having to deal with complexity; many processes or phenomena are too complex to be described completely. Thus a fundamental model requirement is that it contains the characteristic features that are essential in the context of the problem to be solved or described. Models are used in virtually every scientific domain to deal with various problems. During the recent decades, the number of models has increased exponentially. Publication of models as part of original research has traditionally been in in scientific periodicals, series, monographs, agency reports, national journals and laboratory reports. This makes it difficult for interested groups and communities to stay informed about the state-of-the-art. During the modeling process, many important decisions are made which impact the final form of the model. Without a record of these considerations, the final model remains ill-defined and open to varying interpretations. Unfortunately, the details of these considerations are often lost or in case there is any existing information about a model, it is likely to be written intuitively in different layouts and in different degrees of detail. In order to overcome these issues, different domains have attempted to implement their own approaches to preserve their models’ information in forms of model documentation. The most frequently cited model documentation approaches show that they are domain specific, not to applicable to the existing models and evolutionary flexibility and intrinsic corrections and improvements are not possible with the current approaches. These issues are all because of a lack of unified standards for model documentation. As a way forward, this research will propose a new standard for capturing and managing models’ information in a unified way so that interoperability and reusability of models become possible. This standard will also be evolutionary, meaning members of modeling realm could contribute to its ongoing developments and improvements. In this paper, the current 3 of the most common metamodels are reviewed and according to pros and cons of each, a new metamodel is proposed.

Keywords: metamodel, modeling, interoperability, reuse

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Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk, F. A. El-Hussiny

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Elastic scattering of α-particles from 9Be and 11B nuclei at different alpha energies have been analyzed. Optical model parameters (OMPs) of α-particles elastic scattering by these nuclei at different energies have been obtained. In the present calculations, the real part of the optical potential are derived by folding of nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction into nuclear matter density distribution of the projectile and target nuclei using computer code FRESCO. A density-dependent version of the M3Y interaction (CDM3Y6), which is based on the G-matrix elements of the Paris NN potential, has been used. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depth (JR, JW) have been calculated and found to be energy dependent. Good agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical predictions in the whole angular range. In double folding (DF) calculations, the obtained normalization coefficient Nr is in the range 0.70–1.32.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, double folding model, density distribution

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Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

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Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

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Authors: Dzhavidan Zeinalov, Bugra Sen, Firangiz Aslanova

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Most text-to-speech models cannot operate well in low-resource languages and require a great amount of high-quality training data to be considered good enough. Yet, with the improvements made in ASR systems, it is now much easier than ever to collect data for the design of custom text-to-speech models. In this work, our work on using the ASR model to collect data to build a viable text-to-speech system for one of the leading financial institutions of Azerbaijan will be outlined. NVIDIA’s implementation of the Tacotron 2 model was utilized along with the HiFiGAN vocoder. As for the training, the model was first trained with high-quality audio data collected from the Internet, then fine-tuned on the bank’s single speaker call center data. The results were then evaluated by 50 different listeners and got a mean opinion score of 4.17, displaying that our method is indeed viable. With this, we have successfully designed the first text-to-speech model in Azerbaijani and publicly shared 12 hours of audiobook data for everyone to use.

Keywords: Azerbaijani language, HiFiGAN, Tacotron 2, text-to-speech, transfer learning, whisper

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Authors: Angela Luft, Sebastian Bremen, Nicolae Balc

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Additive manufacturing processes have entered large parts of the industry and their range of application have progressed and grown significantly in the course of time. A major advantage of additive manufacturing is the innate flexibility of the machines. This corelates with the ongoing demand of creating highly flexible production environments. However, the potential of additive manufacturing technologies to enhance the flexibility of production systems has not yet been truly considered and quantified in a systematic way. In order to determine the potential of additive manufacturing technologies with regards to the strategic flexibility design in production systems, an integrated evaluation model has been developed, that allows for the simultaneous consideration of both conventional as well as additive production resources. With the described model, an operational scope of action can be identified and quantified in terms of mix and volume flexibility, process complexity, and machine capacity that goes beyond the current cost-oriented approaches and offers a much broader and more holistic view on the potential of additive manufacturing. A respective evaluation model is presented this paper.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, capacity planning, production systems, strategic production planning, flexibility enhancement

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Authors: O.O. Ehinmowo, A.I. Fatuase, D.F. Oke

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Nigeria is endowed with resources that could boost the economy as well as generate income and provide jobs to the teaming populace. One of the keys of attaining this is by making the environment conducive for the entrepreneurs to excel in their respective enterprises so that more income could be accrued to the entrepreneurs. This study therefore examines income inequality among selected entrepreneurs in Ondo State, Nigeria using primary data. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 200 respondents for the study with the aid of structured questionnaire and personal interview. The data collected were subjected to descriptive statistics, Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient and Double - Log regression model. Results revealed that majority of the entrepreneurs (63%) were males and 90% were married with an average age of 44 years. About 40% of the respondents spent at most 12 years in school with 81% of the respondents had 4-6 members per household, while hair dressing (43.5%) and fashion designing (31.5%) were the most common enterprises among the sampled respondents. The findings also showed that majority of the entrepreneurs in hairdressing, fashion designing and laundry service earned below N200,000 per annum while the majority of those in restaurant and food vending earned between N400,000 – N600,000 followed by the entrepreneurs in pure water enterprise where majority earned N800,000 and above per annum. The result of the Gini coefficient (0.58) indicated that there was presence of inequality among the entrepreneurs which was also affirmed by the Lorenz curve. The Regression results showed that gender, household size and number of employees significantly affected the income of the entrepreneurs in the study area. Therefore, more female households should be encouraged into entrepreneurial businesses and government should give incentive cum conductive environment that could bridge the disparity in the income of the entrepreneurs in their various enterprises.

Keywords: entrepreneurs, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Lorenz curve

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Authors: Motalleb Byzedi, Seyedeh Chaman Naderi Korvandan

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Regarding annual statistics of groundwater level resources about current piezometers at Qorveh plains, both ARMA & PARMA modeling methods were applied in this study by the using of SAMS software. Upon performing required tests, a model was used with minimum amount of Akaike information criteria and suitable model was selected for piezometers. Then it was possible to make necessary estimations by using these models for future fluctuations in each piezometer. According to the results, ARMA model had more facilities for modeling of aquifer. Also it was cleared that eastern parts of aquifer had more failures than other parts. Therefore it is necessary to prohibit critical parts along with more supervision on taking rates of wells.

Keywords: qorveh plain, groundwater level, ARMA, PARMA

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Yi Wang, Xun Liang

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This paper introduces a model of internet public opinion waves, which describes the message propagation and measures the influence of a detected event. We collect data on public opinion propagation from different platforms on the internet, including micro-blogs and news. Then, we compare the spread of public opinion to the seismic waves and correspondently define the P-wave and S-wave and other essential attributes and characteristics in the process. Further, a model is established to evaluate the magnitude scale of the events. In the end, a practical example is used to analyze the influence of network public opinion and test the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: internet public opinion waves (IPOW), magnitude scale, cross-platform, information propagation

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Authors: Yiqi Wu, Simon Tait, Andrew Nichols

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Management of UK railway drainage assets is challenging due to the large amounts of historical assets with long asset life cycles. A major concern for asset managers is to maintain the required performance economically and efficiently while complying with the relevant regulation and legislation. As the majority of the drainage assets are buried underground and are often difficult or costly to examine, it is important for asset managers to understand and model the degradation process in order to foresee the upcoming reduction in asset performance and conduct proactive maintenance accordingly. In this research, a Markov chain approach is used to model the deterioration process of rail drainage assets. The study is based on historical condition scores and characteristics of drainage assets across the whole railway network in England, Scotland, and Wales. The model is used to examine the effect of various characteristics on the probabilities of degradation, for example, the regional difference in probabilities of degradation, and how material and shape can influence the deterioration process for chambers, channels, and pipes.

Keywords: deterioration, degradation, markov models, probability, railway drainage

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Authors: Mohammed Agbali, Claudia Trillo, Yusuf Arayici, Terrence Fernando

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The wide-spread adoption of the Smart City concept has introduced a new era of computing paradigm with opportunities for city administrators and stakeholders in various sectors to re-think the concept of urbanization and development of healthy cities. With the world population rapidly becoming urban-centric especially amongst the emerging economies, social innovation will assist greatly in deploying emerging technologies to address the development challenges in core sectors of the future cities. In this context, sustainable health-care delivery and improved quality of life of the people is considered at the heart of the healthy city agenda. This paper examines the Boston innovation landscape from the perspective of smart services and innovation ecosystem for sustainable development, especially in transportation and healthcare. It investigates the policy implementation process of the Healthy City agenda and eHealth economy innovation based on the experience of Massachusetts’s City of Boston initiatives. For this purpose, three emerging areas are emphasized, namely the eHealth concept, the innovation hubs, and the emerging technologies that drive innovation. This was carried out through empirical analysis on results of public sector and industry-wide interviews/survey about Boston’s current initiatives and the enabling environment. The paper highlights few potential research directions for service integration and social innovation for deploying emerging technologies in the healthy city agenda. The study therefore suggests the need to prioritize social innovation as an overarching strategy to build sustainable Smart Cities in order to avoid technology lock-in. Finally, it concludes that the Boston example of innovation economy is unique in view of the existing platforms for innovation and proper understanding of its dynamics, which is imperative in building smart and healthy cities where quality of life of the citizenry can be improved.

Keywords: computing paradigm, emerging technologies, equitable healthcare, healthy cities, open data, smart city, social innovation

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Authors: Emmanuel Dele Balogun

Abstract:

This paper analyzes, using descriptive statistics and econometrics data which span the period 1981 to 2014 to gauge the effects of trade policy incentives on economic growth in Nigeria. It argues that the provided incentives penalize economic growth during pre-trade liberalization eras, but stimulated a rapid increase in total factor productivity during the post-liberalization period of 2000 to 2014. The trend analysis shows that Nigeria maintained high tariff walls in economic regulation eras which became low in post liberalization era. The protections were in favor of infant industries, which were mainly appendages of multinationals but against imports of competing food and finished consumer products. The trade openness index confirms the undue exposure of Nigeria’s economy to the vagaries of international market shocks; while banking sector recapitalization and new listing of telecommunications companies deepened the financial markets in post-liberalization era. The structure of economic incentives was biased in favor of construction, trade and services, but against the real sector despite protectionist policies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates show that the Nigerian economy suffered stagnation in pre-liberalization eras, but experienced rapid growth rates in post-liberalization eras. The regression results relating trade policy incentives to TFP growth rate yielded a significant but negative intercept suggesting that a non-interventionist policy could be detrimental to economic progress, while protective tariff which limits imports of competing products could spur productivity gains in domestic import substitutes beyond factor growth with market liberalization. The main constraint to the effectiveness of trade policy incentives is the failure of benefiting industries to leverage on the domestic factor endowments of the nation. This paper concludes that there is the need to review the current economic transformation strategies urgently with a view to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the most viable options that could make for rapid success.

Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic incentives, total factor productivity, trade policies

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Authors: Natalia Ortega

Abstract:

Safety Culture (SCU) involves various perceptual, psychological, behavioral, and managerial factors. It has been shown that creating and maintaining an SCU is one way to reduce and prevent accidents and fatalities. In the construction sector, safety attitude, knowledge, and a supportive environment are predictors of safety behavior. The highest possible proportion of safety behavior among employees can be achieved by improving their safety attitude and knowledge. Accordingly, top management's commitment to safety is vital in shaping employees' safety attitude; therefore, the first step to improving employees' safety attitude is the genuine commitment of top management to safety. One of the factors affecting the successful implementation of health and safety promotion programs is the construction industry's subcontracting model. The contractual model's complexity, combined with the need for coordination among diverse stakeholders, makes it challenging to implement, manage, and follow up on health and well-being initiatives. The Systems theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) concept has expanded global consideration in recent years, increasing research attention. STAMP focuses attention on the role of constraints in safety management. The findings discover a growth of the research field from the definition in 2004 by Leveson and is being used across multiple domains. A systematic literature review of this novel model aims to meet the safety goals for human space exploration with a powerful and different approach to safety management, safety-driven design, and decision-making. Around two hundred studies have been published about applying the model. However, every single model for safety requires time to transform into research and practice, be tested and debated, and grow further and mature.

Keywords: stamp, risk management, accident prevention, safety culture, systems thinking, construction industry, safety

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Authors: Samar Alkindy

Abstract:

Purpose: The BIM model has been used to support the planning of different construction projects in the industry by showing the different stages of the construction process. The model has been instrumental in identifying some of the common errors in the construction process through the spatial arrangement. The continuous use of the BIM model in the construction industry has resulted in various radical changes such as virtual prototyping. Construction virtual prototyping is a highly advanced technology that incorporates a BIM model with realistic graphical simulations, and facilitates the simulation of the project before a product is built in the factory. The paper presents virtual prototyping in the construction industry by examining its application, challenges and benefits to a construction project. Methodology approach: A case study was conducted for this study in four major construction projects, which incorporate virtual construction prototyping in several stages of the construction project. Furthermore, there was the administration of interviews with the project manager and engineer and the planning manager. Findings: Data collected from the methodological approach shows a positive response for virtual construction prototyping in construction, especially concerning communication and visualization. Furthermore, the use of virtual prototyping has increased collaboration and efficiency between construction experts handling a project. During the planning stage, virtual prototyping has increased accuracy, reduced planning time, and reduced the amount of rework during the implementation stage. Irrespective of virtual prototyping being a new concept in the construction industry, the findings outline that the approach will benefit the management of construction projects.

Keywords: construction operations, construction planning, process simulation, virtual prototyping

Procedia PDF Downloads 229