Search results for: climate tree

Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

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Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

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Authors: Asser S. Abdelwahab, Nabil H. Abbasy, Ragi A. Hamdy

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Marine shipping has now become one of the major worldwide contributors to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Hybrid ships technology based on multiple energy sources has taken a great scope of research to get rid of ship emissions and cut down fuel expenses. Insufficiency between power generated and the demand load to withstand the transient behavior on ships during severe climate conditions will lead to a blackout. Thus, an efficient energy management system (EMS) is a mandatory scope for achieving higher system efficiency while enhancing the lifetime of the onboard storage systems is another salient EMS scope. Considering energy storage system conditions, both the battery state of charge (SOC) and temperature represent important parameters to prevent any malfunction of the storage system that eventually degrades the whole system. In this paper, a two battery packs ratio fuzzy logic control model is proposed. The overall aim is to control the charging/discharging current while including both the battery SOC and temperature in the energy management system. The full designs of the proposed controllers are described and simulated using Matlab. The results prove the successfulness of the proposed controller in stabilizing the system voltage during both loading and unloading while keeping the energy storage system in a healthy condition.

Keywords: energy storage system, power shipboard, hybrid ship, thermal runaway

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Authors: Ahsan Abdullah, Ahmed A. S. Bakshwain

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Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i) climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e. Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources, which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization (effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the three countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous live-stock population.

Keywords: prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity

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Authors: Md Mizanur Rahman, M. Aslam Alam, Muhammad Abu Yusuf

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The abundance of Jellyfish across the coasts of the Bay of Bengal is increasing sharply due to marine pollution, increased sea acidification and climate change. Jellyfish draws our attention to address the local and global stressors. This also indicates that something wrong is happening in this bay behind the scenes. This study aimed to investigate how the policy framework governing the sea can be reformed. To do so, this study evaluated the existing policy, regulatory and institutional framework. Empirical data were collected from the middle coastal zone of Bangladesh. The secondary literature on policy, legal documents, and institutional arrangements were reviewed. The causes of poor coordination among different public sectors and non-compliance of laws were identified. The key findings show that despite the existing of Department of Environment, poor coordination with other departments, and lack of logistics and technical staffs have resulted in severe marine pollution and degradation of coastal and marine living resources. The existing policies had no monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. Non-compliance of the existing laws has been fueling the problems. This study provides an integrated policy and a guideline for updating the legal and institutional mechanism to manage coastal and marine living resources sustainably in Bangladesh to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 14.

Keywords: legal, institutional, framework, jellyfish

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Authors: Muna Mohamed Omer Mirghani

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This paper responds to one of the key national development strategies and a typical challenge in the Gash Basin as well as in different parts of Sudan, namely managing water scarcity in view of climate change impacts in minor water systems sustaining over 50% of the Sudan population. While now focusing on the Gash river basin, the ultimate aim is to replicate the same approach in similar water systems in central and west Sudan. The key objective of the paper is the identification of outcome-based water governance interventions in Gash Basin, guided by the global Sustainable Development Goal six (SDG 6 on water and sanitation) and the Sudan water resource policy framework. The paper concluded that improved water resources management of the Gash Basin is a prerequisite for ensuring desired policy outcomes of groundwater use and flood risk management purposes. Analysis of various water governance dimensions in the Gash indicated that the operationalization of a Basin-level institutional reform is critically focused on informed actors and adapted practices through knowledge and technologies along with the technical data and capacity needed to make that. Adapting the devolved Institutional structure at state level is recommended to strengthen the Gash basin regulatory function and improve compliance of groundwater users.

Keywords: water governance, Gash Basin, integrated groundwater management, Sudan

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Authors: Joachim Monkelbaan, Marcia Hale

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Now that global frameworks for sustainability governance (e.g. the Sustainable Development Goals, Paris Climate Agreement and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction) are in place, the question is how these aspirations that represent major transitions can be put into practice. Water ‘infrasystems’ can play an especially significant role in strengthening regional sustainability. Infrasystems include both hard and soft infrastructure, such as pipes and technology for delivering water, as well as the institutions and governance models that direct its delivery. As such, an integrated infrasystems view is crucial for Integrative Water Management (IWM). Due to frequently contested ownership of and responsibility for water resources, these infrasystems can also play an important role in facilitating conflict and catalysing community empowerment, especially through participatory approaches to governance. In this paper, we analyze the water infrasystem of the Los Angeles region through the lens of global frameworks for sustainability governance. By complementing a solid overview of governance theories with empirical data from interviews with water actors in the LA metropolitan region (including NGOs, water managers, scientists and elected officials), this paper elucidates ways for this infrasystem to be better aligned with global sustainability frameworks. In addition, it opens up the opportunity to scrutinize the appropriateness of global frameworks when it comes to fostering sustainability action at the local level.

Keywords: governance, transitions, global frameworks, infrasystems

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Authors: Asma Rashid, Shazia Iram, Iftikhar Ahmad

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Mango sudden death is an emerging problem in Pakistan. As its prevalence is observed in almost all mango growing areas and severity varied from 2-5% in Punjab and 5-10% in Sindh. Symptoms on affected trees include bark splitting, discoloration of the vascular tissue, wilting, gummosis and at the end rapid death. Total of n= 45 isolates were isolated from different mango growing areas of Punjab and Sindh. Pathogenicity of these fungal isolates was tested through artificial inoculation method on different hosts (potato tubers, detached mango leaves, detached mango twigs and mango plants) under controlled conditions and all were proved pathogenic with varying degree of aggressiveness in reference to control. The findings of the present study proved that out of these four methods, potato tubers inoculation method was the most ideal as this fix the inoculums on the target site. Increased fungal growth and spore numbers may be due to soft tissues of potato tubers from which Ceratocystis isolates can easily pass. Lesion area on potato tubers was in the range of 7.09-0.14 cm2 followed by detached mango twigs which were ranged from 0.48-0.09 cm2). All pathological results were proved highly significant at P<0.05 through ANOVA but isolate to isolate showed non-significant behaviour but they have the positive effect on lesion area. Re-isolation of respective fungi was achieved with 100 percent success which results in the verification of Koch’s postulates. DNA of fungal pathogens was successfully extracted through phenol chloroform method. Amplification was done through ITS, b-tubulin gene, and Transcription Elongation Factor (EF1-a) gene primers and the amplified amplicons were sequenced and compared from NCBI which showed 99-100 % similarity with Ceratocystis manginecans. Fungus Ceratocystis manginecans formed one of strongly supported sub-clades through phylogenetic tree. Results obtained through this work would be supportive in establishment of relation of isolates with their region and will give information about pathogenicity level of isolates that would be useful to develop the management policies to reduce the afflictions in orchards caused by mango sudden death.

Keywords: artificial inoculation, mango, Ceratocystis manginecans, phylogenetic, screening

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Authors: Ana C. R. P. Ferreira, Adriano H. P. Pereira

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Given the frequent variation of mineral properties throughout the Araxá pyrochlore deposit, even if a good homogenization work has been carried out before feeding the processing plants, an operation with quality and performance’s high variety standard is expected. These results could be improved and standardized if the blend composition parameters that most influence the processing route are determined, and then the types of raw materials are grouped by them, finally presenting a great reference with operational settings for each group. Associating the physical and chemical parameters of a unit operation through benchmarking or even an optimal reference of metallurgical recovery and product quality reflects in the reduction of the production costs, optimization of the mineral resource, and guarantee of greater stability in the subsequent processes of the production chain that uses the mineral of interest. Conducting a comprehensive exploratory data analysis to identify which characteristics of the ore are most relevant to the process route, associated with the use of Machine Learning algorithms for grouping the raw material (ore) and associating these with reference variables in the process’ benchmark is a reasonable alternative for the standardization and improvement of mineral processing units. Clustering methods through Decision Tree and K-Means were employed, associated with algorithms based on the theory of benchmarking, with criteria defined by the process team in order to reference the best adjustments for processing the ore piles of each cluster. A clean user interface was created to obtain the outputs of the created algorithm. The results were measured through the average time of adjustment and stabilization of the process after a new pile of homogenized ore enters the plant, as well as the average time needed to achieve the best processing result. Direct gains from the metallurgical recovery of the process were also measured. The results were promising, with a reduction in the adjustment time and stabilization when starting the processing of a new ore pile, as well as reaching the benchmark. Also noteworthy are the gains in metallurgical recovery, which reflect a significant saving in ore consumption and a consequent reduction in production costs, hence a more rational use of the tailings dams and life optimization of the mineral deposit.

Keywords: mineral clustering, machine learning, process optimization, pyrochlore processing

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Authors: Amritha Nair, Fleur Visser, Ian Maddock, Jonas Schoelynck

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Inland waters such as streams sustain a rich variety of species and are essentially hotspots for biodiversity. Submerged aquatic vegetation, also known as SAV, forms an important part of ecologically healthy river systems. Direct and indirect human influences, such as climate change are putting stress on aquatic plant communities, ranging from the invasion of non-native species and grazing, to changes in the river flow conditions and temperature. There is a need to monitor SAV, because they are in a state of deterioration and their disappearance will greatly impact river ecosystems. Like terrestrial plants, SAV can show visible signs of stress. However, the techniques used to map terrestrial vegetation from its spectral reflectance, are not easily transferable to a submerged environment. Optical remote sensing techniques are employed to detect the stress from remotely sensed images through multispectral imagery and Structure from Motion photogrammetry. The effect of the overlying water column in the form of refraction, attenuation of visible and near infrared bands in water, as well as highly moving targets, are NIR) key challenges that arise when remotely mapping SAV. This study looks into the possibility of mapping the changes in spectral signatures from SAV and their response to certain stresses.

Keywords: submerged aquatic vegetation, structure from motion, photogrammetry, multispectral, spectroscopy

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Authors: Yi-Hao Pai, Wen-Feng Chen

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The planting area of Pomelo in Hualien, Taiwan amounts to thousands of hectares. Especially in the blooming season of Pomelo, it is an important producing area for Pomelo honey, and it is also a good test field for promoting the "Under-forest Economy". However, in the current Pomelo garden planting and management operations, the large amount of agricultural waste generated by the pruning of the branches causes environmental sanitation concerns, which can lead to the hiding of pests or the infection of the Pomelo tree, and indirectly increase the health risks of bees. Therefore, how to deal with the pruning of the branches and avoid open burning is a topic of social concern in recent years. In this research, afeasibility study evaluating energy conversion efficiency through agricultural waste gasification from the Pomelo garden, Taiwan, is demonstrated. we used a high-temperature gasifier to convert the pruning of the branches into syngas and biochar. In terms of syngas composition and calorific value assessment, we use the biogas monitoring system for analysis. Then, we used Raman spectroscopy and electron microscopy (EM) to diagnose the microstructure and surface morphology of biochar. The results indicate that the 1 ton of pruning of the branches can produce 1797.03m3 of syngas, corresponding to a calorific value of 9.1MJ/m3. The main components of the gas include CH4, H2, CO, and CO2, and the corresponding gas composition ratio is 16.8%, 7.1%, 13.7%, and 24.5%. Through the biomass syngas generator with a conversion efficiency of 30% for power generation, a total of 1,358kWh can be obtained per ton of pruning of the branches. In the research of biochar, its main characteristics in Raman spectroscopy are G bands and D bands. The first-order G and D bands are at 1580 and 1350 cm⁻¹, respectively. The G bands originates from the in-plane tangential stretching of the C−C bonds in the graphitic structure, and theD band corresponds to scattering from local defects or disorders present in carbon. The area ratio of D and G peaks (D/G) increases with the decrease of reaction temperature. The larger the D/G, the higher the defect concentration and the higher the porosity. This result is consistent with the microstructure displayed by SEM. The study is expected to be able to reuse agricultural waste and promote the development of agricultural and green energy circular economy.

Keywords: agricultural waste, gasification, energy conversion, pomelo garden

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Authors: Ahmad El Hajjar, Joanna Eid, Salima Bouchemella, Tariq Ouahbi, Benoit Duchemin, Said Taibi

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In our present society, raw earth presents an alternative as an energy-saving building material for dealing with climate and environmental issues. Nevertheless, it has a sensitivity to water, due to the presence of fines, which has a direct effect on its consistency. This can be expressed during desiccation, by shrinkage deformations resulting in cracking that begins once the internal tensile stresses developed, due to suction, exceed the tensile strength of the material. This work deals with the evolution of the strain of clay samples, from the beginning of shrinkage until the initiation of crack, using the DIC (Digital Image Correlation) technique. In order to understand the origin of cracking, desiccation is studied for different boundary conditions and depending on the intrinsic characteristics of the material. On the other hand, a study of restrained shrinkage is carried out on the ring test to investigate the ultimate tensile strength from which the crack begins in the dough of clay. The purpose of this test is to find the type of reinforcement adapted to thwart in the cracking of the material. A microscopic analysis of the damaged area is necessary to link the macroscopic mechanisms of cracking to the various physicochemical phenomena at the microscopic scale in order to understand the different microstructural mechanisms and their impact on the macroscopic shrinkage.

Keywords: clayey soil, shrinkage, strain, cracking, digital image correlation

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Authors: Taylor Kolody, Farkhund Iqbal, Rabia Batool, Benjamin Fung, Mohammed Hussaeni, Saiqa Aleem

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The rising threat of climate change has led to an increase in public awareness and care about our collective and individual environmental impact. A key component of this impact is our use of cars and other polluting forms of transportation, but it is often difficult for an individual to know how severe this impact is. While there are applications that offer this feedback, they require manual entry of what transportation mode was used for a given trip, which can be burdensome. In order to alleviate this shortcoming, a data from the 2016 TRIPlab datasets has been used to train a variety of machine learning models to automatically recognize the mode of transportation. The accuracy of 89.6% is achieved using single deep neural network model with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architecture applied directly to trip data points over 4 primary classes, namely walking, public transit, car, and bike. These results are comparable in accuracy to results achieved by others using ensemble methods and require far less computation when classifying new trips. The lack of trip context data, e.g., bus routes, bike paths, etc., and the need for only a single set of weights make this an appropriate methodology for applications hoping to reach a broad demographic and have responsive feedback.

Keywords: classification, gated recurrent unit, recurrent neural network, transportation

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Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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Authors: Phimsupha Kokchang, Divine Ifransca Wijaya

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The energy transition is crucial for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable development and resilience. As the energy transition advances, generation Z is entering the economic world and will soon be responsible for taking care of the environment. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing generation Z’s pro-environmental behavior to support the energy transition. The theory of planned behavior approach was combined with the pro-environmental behavior concept to examine generation Z’s support toward the energy transition through participating in activism, using energy from renewable sources, opting for energy-efficient utilities or vehicles, and influencing others. Data were collected through an online questionnaire of 400 respondents aged 18-26 living in Jakarta, Indonesia. Partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) using SmartPLS 3.0 software was used to analyze the reliability and validity of the measurement model. The results show that attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control positively correlate with generation Z’s pro-environmental behavior to support the energy transition. This finding could enhance understanding and provide insights to formulate effective strategies and policies to increase generation Z’s support towards the energy transition. This study contributes to the energy transition discussion as it is included in the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as pro-environmental behavior and theory of planned behavior literature.

Keywords: energy transition, pro-environmental behavior, theory of planned behavior, generation Z

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes, farmers' approaches to risk management

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Authors: Ali Ates, Sadık Ata, Kevser Dincer

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In this study, performance of the driver seat‘s localized cooling and heating in a standard car air conditioning system was experimentally investigated and modeled with Rule-Based Mamdani-Type Fuzzy (RBMTF) modeling technique. Climate function at automobile is an important variable for thermal comfort. In the experimental study localized heating and cooling performances have been examined with the aid of a mechanism established to a vehicle. The equipment’s used in the experimental setup/mechanism have been provided and assembled. During the measurement, the status of the performance level has been determined. Input parameters revolutions per minute and time; output parameters car seat cooling temperature, car back cooling temperature, car seat heating temperature, car back heating temperature were described by RBMTF if-the rules. Numerical parameters of input and output variables were fuzzificated as linguistic variables: Very Very Low (L1), Very Low (L2), Low (L3), Negative Medium (L4), Medium (L5), High (L7), Very High (L8) and Very Very High (L9) linguistic classes. The comparison between experimental data and RBMTF is done by using statistical methods like absolute fraction of variance (R2). The actual values and RBMTF results indicated that RBMTF could be successfully used in standard car air conditioning system.

Keywords: air conditioning system, cooling-heating, RMBTF modelling, car seat

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Authors: Donna L. Roberts

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Heroin has appeared on the drug scene before. Yet the current opioid crisis differs in significant ways. In order to address the grave challenges, this epidemic poses, the unique precipitating and sustaining conditions must be thoroughly examined. This research explored the various aspects of the political, economic, and social conditions that created a 'perfect storm' for the evolution and maintenance of the current opioid crisis. Specifically, the epidemiology, demographics, and progression of addiction inherent in the current crisis were compared to the patterns of past opioid use. Additionally, the role of pharmaceutical companies and prescribing physicians, the nature and pharmaceutical properties of the available substances and the changing socioeconomic climate were considered. Results indicated that the current crisis differs significantly with respect to its evolution, magnitude, prevalence, and widespread societal effects. Precipitated by a proliferation of prescription medication and sustained by the availability of cheaper, more potent street drugs, including new versions of synthetic opioids, the current crisis presents unprecedented challenges affecting a wider and more diverse segment of society. The unique aspects of this epidemic demand unique approaches to addressing the problem. Understanding these differences is a key step in working toward a practical and enduring solution.

Keywords: addiction, drug abuse, opioids, opioid crisis

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Authors: Man-Yun Liu, Emily Chia-Yu Su

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the public health crisis of the 21st century. AD is a degenerative brain disease and the most common cause of dementia, a costly disease on the healthcare system. Unfortunately, the cause of AD is poorly understood, furthermore; the treatments of AD so far can only alleviate symptoms rather cure or stop the progress of the disease. Currently, there are several ways to diagnose AD; medical imaging can be used to distinguish between AD, other dementias, and early onset AD, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Compared with other diagnostic tools, blood (plasma) test has advantages as an approach to population-based disease screening because it is simpler, less invasive also cost effective. In our study, we used blood biomarkers dataset of The Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) which was funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) to do data analysis and develop a prediction model. We used independent analysis of datasets to identify plasma protein biomarkers predicting early onset AD. Firstly, to compare the basic demographic statistics between the cohorts, we used SAS Enterprise Guide to do data preprocessing and statistical analysis. Secondly, we used logistic regression, neural network, decision tree to validate biomarkers by SAS Enterprise Miner. This study generated data from ADNI, contained 146 blood biomarkers from 566 participants. Participants include cognitive normal (healthy), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and patient suffered Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Participants’ samples were separated into two groups, healthy and MCI, healthy and AD, respectively. We used the two groups to compare important biomarkers of AD and MCI. In preprocessing, we used a t-test to filter 41/47 features between the two groups (healthy and AD, healthy and MCI) before using machine learning algorithms. Then we have built model with 4 machine learning methods, the best AUC of two groups separately are 0.991/0.709. We want to stress the importance that the simple, less invasive, common blood (plasma) test may also early diagnose AD. As our opinion, the result will provide evidence that blood-based biomarkers might be an alternative diagnostics tool before further examination with CSF and medical imaging. A comprehensive study on the differences in blood-based biomarkers between AD patients and healthy subjects is warranted. Early detection of AD progression will allow physicians the opportunity for early intervention and treatment.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, blood-based biomarkers, diagnostics, early detection, machine learning

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Authors: A. O. Idris, J. Virgone, A. I. Ibrahim, D. David, E. Vergnault

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In hot countries, the major challenge is the air conditioning. The increase in energy consumption by air conditioning stems from the need to live in more comfortable buildings, which is understandable. But in Djibouti, one of the countries with the most expensive electricity in the world, this need is exacerbated by an architecture that is inappropriate and unsuitable for climatic conditions. This paper discusses the design of the roof which is the surface receiving the most solar radiation. The roof determines the general behavior of the building. The study presents Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling and analysis of the energy performance of a double skin ventilated roof. The particularity of this study is that it considers the climate of Djibouti characterized by hot and humid conditions in winter and very hot and humid in summer. Roof simulations are carried out using the Ansys Fluent software to characterize the flow and the heat transfer induced in the ventilated roof in steady state. This modeling is carried out by comparing the influence of several parameters such as the internal emissivity of the upper surface, the thickness of the insulation of the roof and the thickness of the ventilated channel on heat gain through the roof. The energy saving potential compared to the current construction in Djibouti is also presented.

Keywords: building, double skin roof, CFD, thermo-fluid analysis, energy saving, forced convection, natural convection

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Authors: Francisco Reyes, Hector Ramirez

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In the coastal zones are home to mangrove swamps, coral reefs, and seagrass ecosystems, which are the most biodiverse and fragile on the planet. These areas support a great diversity of marine life; they are also extraordinarily important for humans in the provision of food, water, wood, and other associated goods and services; they also contribute to climate regulation. The lack of an automated model that generates information on the dynamics of changes in coastlines and coastal erosion is identified as a central problem. Coastlines were determined from 1984 to 2020 on the Google Earth platform Engine from Landsat and Sentinel images, using the Normalized Differential Water Index (MNDWI) and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) v5.0. Starting from the 2020 coastline, the 10-year prediction (Year 2031) was determined with the erosion of 238.32 hectares and an accretion of 181.96 hectares, while the 20-year prediction (Year 2041) will be presented an erosion of 544.04 hectares and an accretion of 133.94 hectares. The erosion and accretion of Playa Muelle in the municipality of Puerto Colombia were established, which will register the highest value of erosion. The coverage that presented the greatest change was that of artificialized Territories.

Keywords: coastline, coastal erosion, MNDWI, Google Earth Engine, Colombia

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Authors: Anis Eloud, Mohamed Ben Amor

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Tunisia is a semi-arid country on ¾ of its territory. It is characterized by the scarcity of water resources and accentuated by climate variability. The potential water resources are estimated at 4.6 million m3 / year, of which 2.7 million m3 / year represent surface water and 1.9 million m3 / year feed all the layers that make up the renewable groundwater resources. Water available in Tunisia easily exceed health or agricultural salinity standards. Barely 50% of water resources are less than 1.5 g / l divided at 72% of surface water salinity, 20% of deep groundwater and only 8% in groundwater levels. Southern Tunisia has the largest web "of water in the country, these waters are characterized by a relatively high salinity may exceed 4 gl-1. This is the "root of many problems encountered during their operation. In the region of Djérid, Albian wells are numerous. These wells debit a geothermal water with an average flow of 390 L / s. This water is characterized by a relatively high salinity and temperature of which is around 65 ° C at the source. Which promotes the formation of limescale deposits within the water supply pipe and the cooling loss thereby increasing the load in direct relation with enormous expense and circuits to replace these lines when completely plugged. The present work is a study of geothermal water quality of the region Djérid from physico-chemical analyzes.

Keywords: water quality, salinity, geothermal, supply pipe

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Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

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Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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Authors: Rania Sherif Abd El-Azim

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The role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in business has evolved and led to an era where industry leaders can no longer overlook the importance of being participative corporate citizens. This is not only because of the media’s skeptical attitude toward whether or not companies’ CSR efforts are sincere but also due to key stakeholders’ ability to hold companies to a higher standard than ever before as companies can gain competitive advantage through CSR. These programs result in addressing global challenges, such as climate, and poverty, or simply improving employee retention, so it has become increasingly clear that CSR is not just the new trend for companies but a necessary tool that organizations must integrate into their overall business strategies to build a stronger reputation as well as to also increase credibility among their key audience and enhance customers’ willingness to repurchase, pay premium price and enhancing positive word of mouth. According to the literature review, the link between CSR and competitive advantage at the firm level has long been an important topic for both CSR researchers and practitioners. Thus CSR can play an important role in enhancing the firm's competitive advantage, which seems an attractive area to investigate specially in Egypt. So, this paper will investigate the role of corporate social responsibility in enhancing the firm competitive advantage.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, competitive advantage, corporate reputation, customers' willingness to repurchase, willingness to pay premium price, positive word of mouth

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Authors: Titinan Pothong, Prasit Wangpakapattanawong, Stephen Elliott

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Shifting cultivation is an indigenous agricultural practice among upland people and has long been one of the major land-use systems in Southeast Asia. As a result, fallows and secondary forests have come to cover a large part of the region. However, they are increasingly being replaced by monocultures, such as corn cultivation. This is believed to be a main driver of deforestation and forest degradation, and one of the reasons behind the recurring winter smog crisis in Thailand and around Southeast Asia. Accurate biomass estimation of trees is important to quantify valuable carbon stocks and changes to these stocks in case of land use change. However, presently, Thailand lacks proper tools and optimal equations to quantify its carbon stocks, especially for secondary evergreen forests, including fallow areas after shifting cultivation and smaller trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) of less than 5 cm. Developing new allometric equations to estimate biomass is urgently needed to accurately estimate and manage carbon storage in tropical secondary forests. This study established new equations using a destructive method at three study sites: approximately 50-year-old secondary forest, 4-year-old fallow, and 7-year-old fallow. Tree biomass was collected by harvesting 136 individual trees (including coppiced trees) from 23 species, with a DBH ranging from 1 to 31 cm. Oven-dried samples were sent for carbon analysis. Wood density was calculated from disk samples and samples collected with an increment borer from 79 species, including 35 species currently missing from the Global Wood Densities database. Several models were developed, showing that aboveground biomass (AGB) was strongly related to DBH, height (H), and wood density (WD). Including WD in the model was found to improve the accuracy of the AGB estimation. This study provides insights for reforestation management, and can be used to prepare baseline data for Thailand’s carbon stocks for the REDD+ and other carbon trading schemes. These may provide monetary incentives to stop illegal logging and deforestation for monoculture.

Keywords: aboveground biomass, allometric equation, carbon stock, secondary forest

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Authors: Debit Datta, Jeffrey J. Coleman, Scott A. Enebak, Lori G. Eckhardt

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Pinus taeda, commonly known as loblolly pine, is a crucial timber species native to the southeastern USA. An emerging problem has been encountered for the past few years, which is better to be known as loblolly pine needle defoliation (LPND), which is threatening the ecological health of southeastern forests and economic vitality of the region’s timber industry. Currently, more than 1000 hectares of loblolly plantations in Alabama are affected with similar symptoms and have created concern among southeast landowners and forest managers. However, it is still uncertain whether LPND results from one or the combination of several fungal pathogens. Therefore, the objectives of the study were to identify and characterize the fungi associated with LPND in the southeastern USA and document the damage being done to loblolly pine as a result of repeated defoliation. Identification of fungi was confirmed using classical morphological methods (microscopic examination of the infected needles), conventional and species-specific priming (SSPP) PCR, and ITS sequencing. To date, 17 species of fungi, either cultured from pine needles or formed fruiting bodies on pine needles, were identified based on morphology and genetic sequence data. Among them, brown-spot pathogen Lecanostica acicola has been frequently recovered from pine needles in both spring and summer. Moreover, Ophistomatoid fungi such as Leptographium procerum, L. terebrantis are associated with pine decline have also been recovered from root samples of the infected stands. Trees have been increasingly and repeatedly chlorotic and defoliated from 2019 to 2020. Based on morphological observations and molecular data, emerging loblolly pine needle defoliation is due in larger part to the brown-spot pathogen L. acoicola followed by pine decline pathogens L. procerum and L. terebrantis. Root pathogens were suspected to emerge later, and their cumulative effects contribute to the widespread mortality of the trees. It is more likely that longer wet spring and warmer temperatures are favorable to disease development and may be important in the disease ecology of LPND. Therefore, the outbreak of the disease is assumed to be expanded over a large geographical area in a changing climatic condition.

Keywords: brown-spot fungi, emerging disease, defoliation, loblolly pine

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Authors: Katarina Lazarević, Mirjana Todosijević, Tijana Vulević, Natalija Momirović, Ranka Erić

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Due to increasing demand, climate change, and world population growth, natural resources are getting exploit fast. One of the most important natural resources is soil, which is susceptible to degradation. Erosion as one of the forms of land degradation is also one of the most global environmental problems. Ecosystem services are often defined as benefits that nature provides to humankind. Soil, as the foundation of basic ecosystem functions, provides benefits to people, erosion control, water infiltration, food, fuel, fibers… This research is using the ecosystem approach as a strategy for natural resources management for promoting sustainability and conservation. The research was done on the Topčiderska River basin (Belgrade, Serbia). The InVEST Sediment Delivery Ratio model was used, to quantify erosion intensity with a spatial distribution output map of overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream. InVEST SDR, a spatially explicit model, is using a method based on the concept of hydrological connectivity and (R) USLE model. This, combined with socio-economic and law and policy analysis, gives a full set of information to decision-makers helping them to successfully manage and deliver sustainable ecosystems.

Keywords: ecosystem services, InVEST model, soil erosion, sustainability

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Authors: Changzhi Jiang, Chunyu Ding, Yan Su, Jiawei Li, Ravi Sharma, Yuanzhou Liu, Jiangwan Xu

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Early Mars is believed to have had extensive liquid water activity, which has now predominantly transitioned to a frozen state, with the majority of water stored in polar ice caps. It has long been deemed that the shallow subsurface of Mars' mid-to-low latitudes is devoid of liquid water. However, geological features observed at the Tianwen-1 landing site hint potential subsurface water. Our research indicates that the shallow subsurface at the Tianwen-1 landing site consists primarily of diluvium deposits containing liquid brine and brine ice, which exhibits diurnal thermal convection processes. Here we report the relationship between the loss tangent and temperature of materials within 5 meters depth of the subsurface at the Tianwen-1 landing site, as in-situ detected by high-frequency radar and climate station onboard the Zhurong rover. When the strata temperature exceeds ~ 240 K, the mixed brine ice transitions to liquid brine, significantly increasing the loss tangent from an average of ~ 0.0167 to a maximum of ~ 0.0448. This finding indicates the presence of substantial subsurface water in Mars' mid-to-low latitudes, influencing the shallow subsurface heat distribution and contributing to the current Martian hydrological cycle.

Keywords: water on mars, mars exploration, in-situ radar detection, tianwen-1 mission

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Authors: Sohanur Rahman, Elisabeth Sinnewe, Larelle (Ellie) Chapple, Sarah Osborne

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Greater political attention to global climate change exposes firms to a higher level of political uncertainty, which can lead to adverse capital market consequences. However, a higher level of discourse on environment-specific political risk (EPR) between management and investors can mitigate information asymmetry, followed by less stock price crash risk. This study examines whether EPR discourse in discourse in the earnings conference calls (ECC) reduces firm-level stock price crash risk in the US market. This research also explores if adverse disclosures via media channels further moderates the association between EPR on crash risk. Employing a dataset of 28,933 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2020, the empirical analysis reveals that EPR discourse in ECC reduces future stock price crash risk. However, adverse disclosures via media channels can offset the favourable effect of EPR discourse on crash risk. The results are robust to the potential endogeneity concern in a quasi-natural experiment setting.

Keywords: earnings conference calls, environment, environment-specific political risk discourse, environmental disclosures, information asymmetry, reputation risk, stock price crash risk

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Authors: J. Alvarez Muñoz, Dominguez Lepe J. A.

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A suitable mixing time of the concrete, allows form a homogeneous mass, quality that leads to greater compressive strength and durability. Although there are recommendations as ASTM C94 standard these mention the time and the number of minimum and maximum speed for a ready-mix concrete of good quality, the specific behavior that would have a concrete mixed on site to variability of the mixing time is unknown. In this study was evaluated the behavior a design of mixture structural of f´c=250 kg/cm2, elaborate on site with limestone aggregate in warm sub-humid climate, subjected to different mixing times. Based on the recommendation for ready-mixed concrete ASTM C94, different times were set at 70, 90, 100, 110, 120, 140 total revolutions. A field study in which 14 works were observed where structural concrete made on site was used, allowed to set at 24 the number of revolutions to the reference mixture. For the production of concrete was used a hand feed concrete mixer with drum speed 28 RPM, the ratio w/c was 0.36 corrected, with a slump of 5-6 cm, for all mixtures. The compressive strength tests were performed at 3, 7, 14, and 28 days. The most outstanding results show increases in resistance in the mixtures of 24 to 70 revolutions between 8 and 17 percent and 70 to 90 revolutions of 3 to 8 percent. Increasing the number of revolutions at 110, 120 and 140, there was a reduction of the compressive strength of 0.5 to 8 percent. Regarding mixtures consistencies, they had a slump of 5 cm to 24, 70 and 90 rpm and less than 5 cm from 100 revolutions. Clearly, those made with more than 100 revolutions mixtures not only decrease the compressive strength but also the workability.

Keywords: compressive strength, concrete, mixing time, workability

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Authors: Devansh Desai, Chamandeep Kaur, Nirmal Kullu, George Christopher

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Study of aerosols has become very important tool in assuming the climatic changes over a region.Spectral and temporal variability’s in aerosol optical depth(AOD) and size distribution are investigated using ground base measurements over Ahmedabad during the months of January(2013) to may (2013). Angstrom coefficient (ἁ) was found to be higher in winter season (January to march) indicating the dominance of fine mode aerosol concentration over Ahmedabad, and the Angstrom coefficient (ἁ) was found to be lower indicating the dominance of coarse mode aerosol concentration over Ahmedabad. The different values of alpha are observed when calculated over different wavelength ranges indicating bimodal aerosol size distribution. Discrimination of aerosol size during different seasons is made using the coefficient of polynomial fit (ἁ1 and ἁ2) which shows the presence of changing dominant aerosol types as a function of season over Ahmedabad. The ἁ2- ἁ1 value is used to get the confirmation on the dominant aerosol mode over Ahmedabad in both seasons. During pre-monsoon about 90% of AOD spectra is dominated by coarse mode aerosols and during winter about 60% of AOD spectra is dominated by fine mode aerosols. This characterization of aerosols is important in assessing the response of different aerosols type in radiative forcing and over climate of Ahmedabad.

Keywords: radiative forcing, aerosol optical depth, fine mode, coarse mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 496