Search results for: traffic prediction

Authors: Ajayi Olusola Olajide, Alonge Olaide Moses

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Predicting the outcome of soccer matches poses an interesting challenge for which it is realistically impossible to successfully do so for every match. Despite this, there are lots of resources that are being expended on the correct prediction of soccer matches weekly, and all over the world. Soccer Match Result Prediction System Model (SMRPSM) is a system that is proposed whereby the results of matches between two soccer teams are auto-generated, with the added excitement of giving users a chance to test their predictive abilities. Soccer teams from different league football are loaded by the application, with each team’s corresponding manager and other information like team location, team logo and nickname. The user is also allowed to interact with the system by selecting the match to be predicted and viewing of the results of completed matches after registering/logging in.

Keywords: predicting, soccer match, outcome, soccer, matches, result prediction, system, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Shital Suresh Borse, Vijayalaxmi Kadroli

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E-commerce industries nowadays implement the latest AI, ML Techniques to improve their own performance and prediction accuracy. This helps to gain a huge profit from the online market. Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network & GWO help many e-commerce industries for up-gradation of their predictive performance. These algorithms are providing optimum results in various applications, such as stock price prediction, prediction of drug-target interaction & user ratings of similar products in e-commerce sites, etc. In this study, customer reviews will play an important role in prediction analysis. People showing much interest in buying a lot of services& products suggested by other customers. This ultimately increases net profit. In this work, a convolution neural network (CNN) is proposed which further is useful to optimize the prediction accuracy of an e-commerce website. This method shows that CNN is used to optimize hyperparameters of GWO algorithm using an appropriate coding scheme. Accurate model results are verified by comparing them to PSO results whose hyperparameters have been optimized by CNN in Amazon's customer review dataset. Here, experimental outcome proves that this proposed system using the GWO algorithm achieves superior execution in terms of accuracy, precision, recovery, etc. in prediction analysis compared to the existing systems.

Keywords: prediction analysis, e-commerce, machine learning, grey wolf optimization, particle swarm optimization, CNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Chong Zhang, Guoming Tang, Bin Ge, Jiuyang Tang

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With the fast growing road traffic and increasingly severe traffic congestion, more and more citizens choose to use the public transportation for daily travelling. Meanwhile, the shared bike provides a convenient option for the first and last mile to the public transit. As of 2016, over one thousand cities around the world have deployed the bike-sharing system. The combination of these two transportations have stimulated the development of each other and made significant contribution to the reduction of carbon footprint. A lot of work has been done on mining the riding behaviors in various bike-sharing systems. Most of them, however, treated the bike-sharing system as an isolated system and thus their results provide little reference for the public transit construction and optimization. In this work, we treat the bike-sharing and public transit as a whole and investigate the customers’ bike-and-ride behaviors. Specifically, we develop a spatio-temporal traffic delivery model to study the riding patterns between the two transportation systems and explore the traffic characteristics (e.g., distributions of customer arrival/departure and traffic peak hours) from the time and space dimensions. During the model construction and evaluation, we make use of large open datasets from real-world bike-sharing systems (the CitiBike in New York, GoBike in San Francisco and BIXI in Montreal) along with corresponding public transit information. The developed two-dimension traffic model, as well as the mined bike-and-ride behaviors, can provide great help to the deployment of next-generation intelligent transportation systems.

Keywords: riding pattern mining, bike-sharing system, public transportation, bike-and-ride behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 746

Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Haoyang Liang, Dandong Ge

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With the rapid development of Chinese cities, traffic congestion has become more and more serious. At the same time, there are many closed old residential area in Chinese cities, which seriously affect the connectivity of urban roads and reduce the density of urban road networks. After reopening the restricted old residential area, the internal roads in the original residential area were transformed into urban roads, which was of great help to alleviate traffic congestion. This paper uses the spatial syntactic theory to analyze the urban road network and compares the roads with the integration and connectivity degree to evaluate whether the opening of the roads in the residential areas can improve the urban traffic. Based on the road network system within the first loop road in Kunming, the Space Syntax evaluation model is established for status analysis. And comparative analysis method will be used to compare the change of the model before and after the road openness of the old urban residential district within the first-ring road in Kunming. Then it will pick out the areas which indicate a significant difference for the small dimensions model analysis. According to the analyzed results and traffic situation, the evaluation of road openness in the old urban residential district will be proposed to improve the urban residential districts.

Keywords: Space Syntax, Kunming, urban renovation, traffic jam

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Jan-Peter Mund, Christian Kind

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In view of the ongoing climate change and global warming, fires along railways in Germany are occurring more frequently, with sometimes massive consequences for railway operations and affected railroad infrastructure. In the absence of systematic studies within the infrastructure network of German Rail, little is known about the causes of such embankment fires. Since a further increase in these hazards is to be expected in the near future, there is a need for a sound knowledge of triggers and drivers for embankment fires as well as methodical knowledge of prediction tools. Two predictable future trends speak for the increasing relevance of the topic: through the intensification of the use of rail for passenger and freight transport (e.g..: doubling of annual passenger numbers by 2030, compared to 2019), there will be more rail traffic and also more maintenance and construction work on the railways. This research project approach uses satellite data to identify historical embankment fires along rail network infrastructure. The team links data from these fires with infrastructure and weather data and trains a machine-learning model with the aim of predicting fire hazards on sections of the track. Companies reflect on the results and use them on a pilot basis in precautionary measures.

Keywords: embankment fires, railway maintenance, machine learning, remote sensing, VIIRS data

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Parichehr Sharifi, Konrad Reschke, Hans-Liudger Dienel

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Psychological intervention generally targets changes in attitudes and behavior. Working with DUIs is part of traffic psychologists’ work. The primary goal of this field is to reduce the probability of re-conspicuous of the delinquent driver. One of these measurements in Germany is IFT courses for DUI s. The IFT course was designed by the Institute for Therapy Research. Participants are drivers who have fallen several times or once with a blood alcohol concentration of 1.6 per mill and who have completed a medical-psychological assessment (MPU) with the result of the course recommendation. The course covers four sessions of 3.5 hours each (1 hour / 60 m) and in a period of 3 to 4 weeks in the group discussion. This work analyzes interventions for the rehabilitation of DUI (Drunk Drivers offenders) offenders in groups under the aspect of activating psychological resources. From the aspect of sustainability, they should also have long-term consequences for the maintenance of unproblematic driving behavior in terms of the activation of resources. It is also addressing a selected consistency-theory-based intervention effect, activating psychological resources. So far, this has only been considered in the psychotherapeutic field but never in the field of traffic psychology. The methodology of this survey is one qualitative and three quantitative. In four sub-studies, it will be examined which measurements can determine the resources and how traffic psychological interventions can strengthen resources. The results of the studies have the following implications for traffic psychology research and practice: (1) In the field of traffic psychology intervention for the restoration of driving fitness, it can be stated that aspects of resource activation in this work have been investigated for the first time by qualitative and quantitative methods. (2) The resource activation could be confirmed based on the determined results as an effective factor of traffic psychological intervention. (3) Two sub-studies show a range of resources and resource activation options that must be given greater emphasis in traffic psychology interventions: - Social resource activation - improvement of the life skills of participants - Reactivation of existing social support options - Re-experiencing self-esteem, self-assurance, and acceptance of traffic-related behaviors. (4) In revising the IFT-§70 course, as well as other courses on recreating aptitude for DUI, new traffic-specific resource-enabling interventions against alcohol abuse should be developed to further enhance the courses through motivational, cognitive, and behavioral effects of resource activation, Resource-activating interventions can not only be integrated into behavioral group interventions but can also be applied in psychodynamic, psychodynamic (individual psychological) and other contexts of individual traffic psychology. The results are indicative but clearly show that personal resources can be strengthened through traffic psychology interventions. In the research, practice, training, and further education of traffic psychology, the aspect of primary resource activation (Grawe, 1999), therefore, always deserves the greatest attention for the rehabilitation of DUIs and Traffic safety.

Keywords: traffic safety, psychological resources, activating of resources, intervention programs for alcohol offenders, empowerment

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Asmir Gogic, Aljo Mujcic, Sandra Ibric, Nermin Suljanovic

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Ubiquity of natural disasters during last few decades have risen serious questions towards the prediction of such events and human safety. Every disaster regardless its proportion has a precursor which is manifested as a disruption of some environmental parameter such as temperature, humidity, pressure, vibrations and etc. In order to anticipate and monitor those changes, in this paper we propose an overall system for disaster prediction and monitoring, based on wireless sensor network (WSN). Furthermore, we introduce a modified and simplified WSN routing protocol built on the top of the trickle routing algorithm. Routing algorithm was deployed using the bluetooth low energy protocol in order to achieve low power consumption. Performance of the WSN network was analyzed using a real life system implementation. Estimates of the WSN parameters such as battery life time, network size and packet delay are determined. Based on the performance of the WSN network, proposed system can be utilized for disaster monitoring and prediction due to its low power profile and mesh routing feature.

Keywords: bluetooth low energy, disaster prediction, mesh routing protocols, wireless sensor networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Asanka U. K. Godamunne

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Road traffic accidents (RTA) are a leading cause of death globally as well as in Sri Lanka and results in a large proportion of disability especially among young people. Ninety-percent of world’s road traffic deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The gross disparities in injury outcomes relate to immediate post-crash and hospital management. Emergency management, methods of patient transportation following road traffic accidents and safety measures are important factors to reduce mortality and morbidity. Studies in this area are limited in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this research was to assess the emergency management and proper method of transportation of road traffic accident victims. This offers the best way to explore the ways to reduce the mortality and morbidity and raise the public awareness. This study was conducted as a descriptive cross-sectional study. All the consecutive road traffic accident victims admitted to surgical wards at District General Hospital, Matale, Sri Lanka, over a period of three months were included in the study. Data from 387 victims were analyzed. The majority were in the 20-30 year age group. Seventy six percent of the patients were males. Motorcycles and trishaws were most affected. First-aid was given to only 2% of patients and it was given by non-medical persons. A significant proportion of patients (75%) were transported to the hospital by trishaws and only 1% transported by ambulance. About 86% of the patients were seated while transport and 14% were flat. Limbs and head were the most affected areas of the body. As per this study, immediate post-crash management and patient transportation were not satisfactory. There is a need to strengthen certain road safety laws and make sure people follow them.

Keywords: emergency management, patient transportation, road traffic accident victims, Sri Lanka

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Ma Lei-Lei, Zhou You

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Aiming at the problems of low detection accuracy of deep learning algorithm in traffic sign detection, this paper proposes improved EfficientDet based traffic sign detection algorithm. Multi-head self-attention is introduced in the minimum resolution layer of the backbone of EfficientDet to achieve effective aggregation of local and global depth information, and this study proposes an improved feature fusion pyramid with increased vertical cross-layer connections, which improves the performance of the model while introducing a small amount of complexity, the Balanced L1 Loss is introduced to replace the original regression loss function Smooth L1 Loss, which solves the problem of balance in the loss function. Experimental results show, the algorithm proposed in this study is suitable for the task of traffic sign detection. Compared with other models, the improved EfficientDet has the best detection accuracy. Although the test speed is not completely dominant, it still meets the real-time requirement.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, transformer, feature pyramid networks, loss function

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Azzedine Hamza, Chouaib Chakour, Messaoud Ramdani

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Energy demand prediction plays a crucial role in achieving next-generation power systems for agricultural greenhouses. As a result, high prediction quality is required for efficient smart grid management and therefore low-cost energy consumption. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of a hybrid data-driven model in day-ahead energy demand prediction. The proposed model consists of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The DWT is employed to decompose the original signal in a set of subseries and then an ANFIS is used to generate the forecast for each subseries. The proposed hybrid method (DWT-ANFIS) was evaluated using a greenhouse energy demand data for a week and compared with ANFIS. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was demonstrated that discret wavelet transform can improve agricultural greenhouse energy demand modeling.

Keywords: wavelet transform, ANFIS, energy consumption prediction, greenhouse

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Yiannis G. Smirlis

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The classification and the prediction of efficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is an important issue, especially in large scale problems or when new units frequently enter the under-assessment set. In this paper, we contribute to the subject by proposing a grid structure based on interval segmentations of the range of values for the inputs and outputs. Such intervals combined, define hyper-rectangles that partition the space of the problem. This structure, exploited by Interval DEA models and a dominance relation, acts as a DEA pre-processor, enabling the classification and prediction of efficiency scores, without applying any DEA models.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, interval DEA, efficiency classification, efficiency prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Mohammed Seid, Aklilu Azazh, Fikre Enquselassie, Engida Yisma

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Background: Road traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people. More than a million people die each year on the world’s roads, and the risk of dying as a result of a road traffic injury is highest in the Africa. Methods: A prospective hospital-based study was undertaken to assess injury characteristics and outcome of road traffic accident among victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results: A total of 230 road traffic accident victims were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 165 (71.7%) and the male/female ratio was 2.6:1. The victims’ ages ranged from 14 to 80 years with the mean and standard deviations of 32.15 and ± 14.38 years respectively. Daily laborers (95 (41.3%)) and students (28 (12.2%)) were the majority of road traffic accident victims. Long-distance travelling Minibus (16.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crash followed by followed by Taxi (14.8%) and pedestrians (62.6%) accounted for the majority of road traffic accident. Head (50.4%) and musculoskeletal (extremities) (47.0%) were the most common body region injured. Fractures (78.0%) and open wounds (56.5%) were the most common type of injuries sustained. Treatment of fracture was the most common procedure performed in 57.7 % of the victims. The overall length of hospital stay (LOS) ranged from 1 day to 61 days with mean (± standard deviation) of 7.12 ± 10.5 days and the mortality rate was 7.4 %. A significant higher proportion of victims aged 14-55 years were had less likelihood of death compared to those victims aged more than 55 years of age [Adjusted OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.82)]. Conclusions: This study showed diverse injury characteristics and high morbidity and mortality among the victims attending Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings reflect that road traffic accident is a major public health problem. Urgent road traffic accident preventive measures and prompt treatment of the victims are warranted in order to reduce morbidity and mortality among the victims.

Keywords: road traffic accident, injury characteristics, outcome, Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Jamerson Felipe Pereira Lima, Jeane Cecília Bezerra de Melo

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The difficulty and cost related to obtaining of protein tertiary structure information through experimental methods, such as X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy, helped raising the development of computational methods to do so. An approach used in these last is prediction of tridimensional structure based in the residue chain, however, this has been proved an NP-hard problem, due to the complexity of this process, explained by the Levinthal paradox. An alternative solution is the prediction of intermediary structures, such as the secondary structure of the protein. Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Bayesian statistics, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others, were used to predict protein secondary structure. Due to its good results, artificial neural networks have been used as a standard method to predict protein secondary structure. Recent published methods that use this technique, in general, achieved a Q3 accuracy between 75% and 83%, whereas the theoretical accuracy limit for protein prediction is 88%. Alternatively, to achieve better results, support vector machines prediction methods have been developed. The statistical evaluation of methods that use different AI techniques, such as ANNs and SVMs, for example, is not a trivial problem, since different training sets, validation techniques, as well as other variables can influence the behavior of a prediction method. In this study, we propose a prediction method based on artificial neural networks, which is then compared with a selected SVM method. The chosen SVM protein secondary structure prediction method is the one proposed by Huang in his work Extracting Physico chemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure (2013). The developed ANN method has the same training and testing process that was used by Huang to validate his method, which comprises the use of the CB513 protein data set and three-fold cross-validation, so that the comparative analysis of the results can be made comparing directly the statistical results of each method.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, protein secondary structure, protein structure prediction, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 584

Authors: Raphael Tuor, Denis Lalanne

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The ATM research community is missing suitable tools to design, test, and validate new UI prototypes. Important stakes underline the implementation of both DSS and XAI methods into current systems. ML-based DSS are gaining in relevance as ATFM becomes increasingly complex. However, these systems only prove useful if a human can understand them, and thus new XAI methods are needed. The human-machine dyad should work as a team and should understand each other. We present xSky, a configurable benchmark tool that allows us to compare different versions of an ATC interface in conflict detection tasks. Our main contributions to the ATC research community are (1) a conflict detection task simulator (xSky) that allows to test the applicability of visual prototypes on scenarios of varying difficulty and outputting relevant operational metrics (2) a theoretical approach to the explanations of AI-driven trajectory predictions. xSky addresses several issues that were identified within available research tools. Researchers can configure the dimensions affecting scenario difficulty with a simple CSV file. Both the content and appearance of the XAI elements can be customized in a few steps. As a proof-of-concept, we implemented an XAI prototype inspired by the maritime field.

Keywords: air traffic control, air traffic simulation, conflict detection, explainable artificial intelligence, explainability, human-automation collaboration, human factors, information visualization, interpretability, trajectory prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Mohammad Rahmani Rezaiyeh, Mojtaba Rahmani Rezaiyeh, Mehrdad Rahmani Rezaiyeh

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Smart speed bump is a new invention and I am invented it. Smart speed bump is a system that can change the position of speed bumps either active or passive in necessary situations. The basic system of smart speed bumps is based on a robotic system which includes mechanic, electronic and artificial intelligence. The smart speed bump is capable of smart decision making and can change its position by anticipating the peak of terrific hours. It can be noted to the advantages of this system such as preventing the waste of petrol while crossing speed bumps, traffic management, accelerating, flowing and securing traffic, reducing accidents and judicial records.

Keywords: invention, smart, robotic system, speed bump, traffic, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, prediction modeling, rail track degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Vijay Kr. Yadav, Nilam Rathi

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Accurate prediction of glucose level for diabetes mellitus is required to avoid affecting the functioning of major organs of human body. This study describes the fundamental assumptions and two different methodologies of the Blood glucose prediction. First is based on the back-propagation algorithm of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and second is based on the Neuro-Fuzzy technique, called Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Errors between proposed methods further discussed through various statistical methods such as mean square error (MSE), normalised mean absolute error (NMAE). The main objective of present study is to develop mathematical model for blood glucose prediction before 12 hours advanced using data set of three patients for 60 days. The comparative studies of the accuracy with other existing models are also made with same data set.

Keywords: back-propagation, diabetes mellitus, fuzzy inference system, neuro-fuzzy

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Fan Li, Chun-Hsien Chen, Li Pheng Khoo

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Operators of vessel traffic service (VTS) center provides three different types of services; namely information service, navigational assistance and traffic organization to vessels. To provide these services, operators monitor vessel traffic through computer interface and provide navigational advice based on the information integrated from multiple sources, including automatic identification system (AIS), radar system, and closed circuit television (CCTV) system. Therefore, this information is crucial in VTS operation. However, what information the VTS operator actually need to efficiently and properly offer services is unclear. The aim of this study is to investigate into information requirements for VTS operation. To achieve this aim, field observation was carried out to elicit the information requirements for VTS operation. The study revealed that the most frequent and important tasks were handling arrival vessel report, potential conflict control and abeam vessel report. Current location and vessel name were used in all tasks. Hazard cargo information was particularly required when operators handle arrival vessel report. The speed, the course, and the distance of two or several vessels were only used in potential conflict control. The information requirements identified in this study can be utilized in designing a human-computer interface that takes into consideration what and when information should be displayed, and might be further used to build the foundation of a decision support system for VTS.

Keywords: vessel traffic service, information requirements, hierarchy task analysis, field observation

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder

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This study investigates how the site specific traffic data differs from the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Software default values. Two Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) stations were installed in Interstate-40 (I-40) and Interstate-25 (I-25) to developed site specific data. A computer program named WIM Data Analysis Software (WIMDAS) was developed using Microsoft C-Sharp (.Net) for quality checking and processing of raw WIM data. A complete year data from November 2013 to October 2014 was analyzed using the developed WIM Data Analysis Program. After that, the vehicle class distribution, directional distribution, lane distribution, monthly adjustment factor, hourly distribution, axle load spectra, average number of axle per vehicle, axle spacing, lateral wander distribution, and wheelbase distribution were calculated. Then a comparative study was done between measured data and AASHTOWare default values. It was found that the measured general traffic inputs for I-40 and I-25 significantly differ from the default values.

Keywords: AASHTOWare, traffic, weigh-in-motion, axle load distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Ravinder Bahl, Jamini Sharma

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The paper demonstrates analysis of the cervical cancer based on a probabilistic model. It involves technique for classification and prediction by recognizing typical and diagnostically most important test features relating to cervical cancer. The main contributions of the research include predicting the probability of recurrences in no recurrence (first time detection) cases. The combination of the conventional statistical and machine learning tools is applied for the analysis. Experimental study with real data demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach for the said cause.

Keywords: cervical cancer, recurrence, no recurrence, probabilistic, classification, prediction, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi

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Bankruptcy prediction models have been implemented for continuous evaluation and monitoring of firms. With the huge number of bankruptcy models, an extensive number of studies have focused on answering the question that which of these models are superior in performance. In practice, one of the drawbacks of existing comparative studies is that the relative assessment of alternative bankruptcy models remains an exercise that is mono-criterion in nature. Further, a very restricted number of criteria and measure have been applied to compare the performance of competing bankruptcy prediction models. In this research, we overcome these methodological gaps through implementing an extensive range of criteria and measures for comparison between dynamic and static bankruptcy models, and through proposing a multi-criteria framework to compare the relative performance of bankruptcy models in forecasting firm distress for UK firms.

Keywords: bankruptcy prediction, data envelopment analysis, performance criteria, performance measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

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In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides，a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

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Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Fujian Wang, Shubin Ruan, Meiwei Dai

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Speed dispersion has tight relation to traffic safety. In this paper, several kinds of indicating parameters (the standard speed deviation, the coefficient of variation, the deviation of V85 and V15, the mean speed deviations, and the difference between adjacent car speeds) are applied to investigate the characteristics of speed dispersion, where V85 and V15 are 85th and 15th percentile speed, respectively. Their relationships are into full investigations and the results show that: there exists a positive relation (linear) between mean speed and the deviation of V85 and V15; while a negative relation (quadratic) between traffic flow and standard speed deviation. The mean speed deviation grows exponentially with mean speed while the absolute speed deviation between adjacent cars grows linearly with the headway. The results provide some basic information for traffic management.

Keywords: headway, indicating parameters, speed dispersion, urban expressway

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Authors: Eric A. Morris, Xia Liu, Yee Ka Wong, Greg J. Evans, Jeff R. Brook

Abstract:

Air quality monitoring stations tend to be widely distributed and are often located far from major roadways, thus, determining where, when, and which traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) have the greatest impact on public health becomes a matter of extrapolation. Compact, multipollutant sensor systems are an effective solution as they enable several TRAPs to be monitored in a geospatially dense network, thus filling in the gaps between conventional monitoring stations. This work describes two applications of one such system named AirSENCE for gathering actionable air quality data relevant to smart city infrastructures. In the first application, four AirSENCE devices were co-located with traffic monitors around the perimeter of a city block in Oshawa, Ontario. This study, which coincided with the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 and subsequent lockdown measures, demonstrated a direct relationship between decreased traffic volumes and TRAP concentrations. Conversely, road construction was observed to cause elevated TRAP levels while reducing traffic volumes, illustrating that conventional smart city sensors such as traffic counters provide inadequate data for inferring air quality conditions. The second application used two AirSENCE sensors on opposite sides of a major 2-way commuter road in Toronto. Clear correlations of TRAP concentrations with wind direction were observed, which shows that impacted areas are not necessarily static and may exhibit high day-to-day variability in air quality conditions despite consistent traffic volumes. Both of these applications provide compelling evidence favouring the inclusion of air quality sensors in current and future smart city infrastructure planning. Such sensors provide direct measurements that are useful for public health alerting as well as decision-making for projects involving traffic mitigation, heavy construction, and urban renewal efforts.

Keywords: distributed sensor network, continuous ambient air quality monitoring, Smart city sensors, Internet of Things, traffic-related air pollutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta

Abstract:

Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.

Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, cross-correlation, avalanches, prediction method

Procedia PDF Downloads 354