Search results for: prediction of future records

Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R, Bhamidipati Naga Shrikarti

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In the realm of cricket, particularly within the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the ability to predict team scores accurately holds significant importance for both cricket enthusiasts and stakeholders alike. This paper presents a comprehensive study on IPL score prediction utilizing various machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), XGBoost, Multiple Regression, Linear Regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest. Through meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model selection, we aimed to develop a robust predictive framework capable of forecasting team scores with high precision. Our experimentation involved the analysis of historical IPL match data encompassing diverse match and player statistics. Leveraging this data, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to train and evaluate the performance of each model. Notably, Multiple Regression emerged as the top-performing algorithm, achieving an impressive accuracy of 77.19% and a precision of 54.05% (within a threshold of +/- 10 runs). This research contributes to the advancement of sports analytics by demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting IPL team scores. The findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive modeling techniques to provide valuable insights for cricket enthusiasts, team management, and betting agencies. Additionally, this study serves as a benchmark for future research endeavors aimed at enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of IPL score prediction models.

Keywords: indian premier league (IPL), cricket, score prediction, machine learning, support vector machines (SVM), xgboost, multiple regression, linear regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest, sports analytics

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

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Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e., meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluations of rail-pads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction, mechanical engineering design

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Authors: H. A. Mansour

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The objective of this research work is studying the water use prediction, prediction technology for water use by action agencies, and others involved in conservation, planning, and environmental assessment of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) simulation model. Models the important physical, processes governing erosion in Egypt (climate, infiltration, runoff, ET, detachment by raindrops, detachment by flowing water, deposition, etc.). Simulation of the non-uniform slope, soils, cropping/management., and Egyptian databases for climate, soils, and crops. The study included important parameters in Egyptian conditions as follows: Water Balance & Percolation, Soil Component (Tillage impacts), Plant Growth & Residue Decomposition, Overland Flow Hydraulics. It could be concluded that we can adapt the WEPP simulation model to determining the previous important parameters under Egyptian conditions.

Keywords: WEPP, adaptation, soil properties, tillage impacts, water balance, soil percolation

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Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

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Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations

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Authors: Vuk M. Popovic, Dunja D. Popovic

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Software maintenance phase is started once a software project has been developed and delivered. After that, any modification to it corresponds to maintenance. Software maintenance involves modifications to keep a software project usable in a changed or a changing environment, to correct discovered faults, and modifications, and to improve performance or maintainability. Software maintenance and management of software maintenance are recognized as two most important and most expensive processes in a life of a software product. This research is basing the prediction of maintenance, on risks and time evaluation, and using them as data sets for working with neural networks. The aim of this paper is to provide support to project maintenance managers. They will be able to pass the issues planned for the next software-service-patch to the experts, for risk and working time evaluation, and afterward to put all data to neural networks in order to get software maintenance prediction. This process will lead to the more accurate prediction of the working hours needed for the software-service-patch, which will eventually lead to better planning of budget for the software maintenance projects.

Keywords: laboratory information system, maintenance engineering, neural networks, software maintenance, software maintenance costs

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Authors: Muhammad Shahzad Iqbal, Zobia Sarwar, Salah-ud-Din

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Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) belongs to the genus Tospoviruses (family Bunyaviridae). It is one of the most devastating pathogens of tomato (Solanum Lycopersicum) and heavily damages the crop yield each year around the globe. In this study, we retrieved 329 mature miRNA sequences from two microRNA databases (miRBase and miRSoldb) and checked the putative target sites in the downloaded-genome sequence of TSWV. A consensus of three miRNA target prediction tools (RNA22, miRanda and psRNATarget) was used to screen the false-positive microRNAs targeting sites in the TSWV genome. These tools calculated different target sites by calculating minimum free energy (mfe), site-complementarity, minimum folding energy and other microRNA-mRNA binding factors. R language was used to plot the predicted target-site data. All the genes having possible target sites for different miRNAs were screened by building a consensus table. Out of these 329 mature miRNAs predicted by three algorithms, only eight miRNAs met all the criteria/threshold specifications. MC-Fold and MC-Sym were used to predict three-dimensional structures of miRNAs and further analyzed in USCF chimera to visualize the structural and conformational changes before and after microRNA-mRNA interactions. The results of the current study show that the predicted eight miRNAs could further be evaluated by in vitro experiments to develop TSWV-resistant transgenic tomato plants in the future.

Keywords: tomato spotted wild virus (TSWV), Solanum lycopersicum, plant virus, miRNAs, microRNA target prediction, mRNA

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Authors: Jeff Clarine, Chang-Shyh Peng, Daisy Sang

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Bioassay is the measurement of the potency of a chemical substance by its effect on a living animal or plant tissue. Bioassay data and chemical structures from pharmacokinetic and drug metabolism screening are mined from and housed in multiple databases. Bioassay prediction is calculated accordingly to determine further advancement. This paper proposes a four-step preprocessing of datasets for improving the bioassay predictions. The first step is instance selection in which dataset is categorized into training, testing, and validation sets. The second step is discretization that partitions the data in consideration of accuracy vs. precision. The third step is normalization where data are normalized between 0 and 1 for subsequent machine learning processing. The fourth step is feature selection where key chemical properties and attributes are generated. The streamlined results are then analyzed for the prediction of effectiveness by various machine learning algorithms including Pipeline Pilot, R, Weka, and Excel. Experiments and evaluations reveal the effectiveness of various combination of preprocessing steps and machine learning algorithms in more consistent and accurate prediction.

Keywords: bioassay, machine learning, preprocessing, virtual screen

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

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Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: central machine learning, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local machine learning, wireless sensor networks, WSN

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Authors: Tomyslav Sledevič, Artūras Serackis, Gintautas Tamulevičius, Dalius Navakauskas

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This paper presents a comparative evaluation of features extraction algorithm for a real-time isolated word recognition system based on FPGA. The Mel-frequency cepstral, linear frequency cepstral, linear predictive and their cepstral coefficients were implemented in hardware/software design. The proposed system was investigated in the speaker-dependent mode for 100 different Lithuanian words. The robustness of features extraction algorithms was tested recognizing the speech records at different signals to noise rates. The experiments on clean records show highest accuracy for Mel-frequency cepstral and linear frequency cepstral coefficients. For records with 15 dB signal to noise rate the linear predictive cepstral coefficients give best result. The hard and soft part of the system is clocked on 50 MHz and 100 MHz accordingly. For the classification purpose, the pipelined dynamic time warping core was implemented. The proposed word recognition system satisfies the real-time requirements and is suitable for applications in embedded systems.

Keywords: isolated word recognition, features extraction, MFCC, LFCC, LPCC, LPC, FPGA, DTW

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Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Rajakumar Arul, Kottilingam Kottursamy, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Sathya Pavithra, Swaminathan Venkatraman

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Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) utilizes the IEEE 802.1X mechanism for authentication. However, this mechanism incurs considerable delay during handoffs. This delay during handoffs results in service disruption which becomes a severe bottleneck. To overcome this delay, our article proposes a key caching mechanism based on user path prediction. If the user mobility follows that path, the user bypasses the normal IEEE 802.1X mechanism and establishes the necessary authentication keys directly. Through analytical and simulation modeling, we have proved that our mechanism effectively decreases the handoff delay thereby achieving fast authentication.

Keywords: authentication, authorization, and accounting (AAA), handoff, mobile, user path prediction (UPP) and user pattern

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Authors: Lateefat Amao, Misagh Faezipour

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Implementing electronic health records (EHR) in healthcare is a pivotal transition aimed at digitizing and optimizing patient health information management. The expectations associated with this transition are high, even towards other health information systems (HIS) and health technology. This multifaceted process involves careful planning and execution to improve the quality and efficiency of patient care, especially as healthcare technology is a sensitive niche. Key considerations include a thorough needs assessment, judicious vendor selection, robust infrastructure development, and training and adaptation of healthcare professionals. Comprehensive training programs, data migration from legacy systems and models, interoperability, as well as security and regulatory compliance are imperative for healthcare staff to navigate EHR systems adeptly. The purpose of this work is to offer a comprehensive review of the literature on EHR implementation. It explores the impact of this health technology on health practices, highlights challenges and barriers to its successful utility, and offers practical strategies that can impact its success in healthcare. This paper provides a thorough review of studies on the adoption of EHRs, emphasizing the wide range of experiences and results connected to EHR use in the medical field, especially across different types of healthcare organizations.

Keywords: healthcare, electronic health records, EHR implementation, patient care, interoperability

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Authors: Kiyoumars Roushangar, Saeid Sadaghian

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Although accurate sediment load prediction is very important in planning, designing, operating and maintenance of water resources structures, the transport mechanism is complex, and the deterministic transport models are based on simplifying assumptions often lead to large prediction errors. In this research, firstly, two intelligent ANN methods, Radial Basis and General Regression Neural Networks, are adopted to model of total sediment load transport into Madani Dam reservoir (north of Iran) using the measured data and then applicability of the sediment transport methods developed by Engelund and Hansen, Ackers and White, Yang, and Toffaleti for predicting of sediment load discharge are evaluated. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the GRNN model gives better estimates than the sediment rating curve and mentioned classic methods.

Keywords: sediment transport, dam reservoir, RBF, GRNN, prediction

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Authors: Alexandre Barbosa de Almeida, Telma Woerle de Lima Soares

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Protein structure prediction is a challenging task in the bioinformatics field. The biological function of all proteins majorly relies on the shape of their three-dimensional conformational structure, but less than 1% of all known proteins in the world have their structure solved. This work proposes a deep learning model to address this problem, attempting to predict some aspects of the protein conformations. Throughout a process of multiobjective dominance, a recurrent neural network was trained to abstract the particular bias of each individual multiobjective algorithm, generating a heuristic that could be useful to predict some of the relevant aspects of the three-dimensional conformation process formation, known as protein folding.

Keywords: Ab initio heuristic modeling, multiobjective optimization, protein structure prediction, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Danladi Ali, Abdullahi Mukaila

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In this work, GSM signal strength (power) was monitored in an indoor environment. Samples of the GSM signal strength was measured on mobile equipment (ME). One-dimensional multilevel wavelet is used to predict the fading phenomenon of the GSM signal measured and neural network clustering to determine the average power received in the study area. The wavelet prediction revealed that the GSM signal is attenuated due to the fast fading phenomenon which fades about 7 times faster than the radio wavelength while the neural network clustering determined that -75dBm appeared more frequently followed by -85dBm. The work revealed that significant part of the signal measured is dominated by weak signal and the signal followed more of Rayleigh than Gaussian distribution. This confirmed the wavelet prediction.

Keywords: decomposition, clustering, propagation, model, wavelet, signal strength and spectral efficiency

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Authors: Francis Mark A. Fernandez, Chelca Ubay, Armithan Suguitan

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Regions or provinces in a definite state certainly contribute to the economy of their mainland. These regions or provinces are the ones supplying the mainland with different resources and assets. Thus, with a certain region separating from the mainland would indeed impinge the heart of an entire state to develop and expand. With these, the researchers decided to study on the effects of the separation of one’s region to its mainland and the consequences that will take place if the mainland would rule out the region to separate from them. The researchers wrote this paper to present the causes of the separation of Catalonia from Spain and the prediction regarding the pursuance of this region to revolt from its mainland, Spain. In conducting this research, the researchers utilized two analyses, namely: qualitative and quantitative. In qualitative, numerous of information regarding the existing experiences of the citizens of Catalonia were gathered by the authors to give certainty to the prediction of the researchers. Besides this undertaking, the researchers will also gather needed information and figures through books, journals and the published news and reports. In addition, to further support this prediction under qualitative analysis, the researchers intended to operate the Phenomenological research in which the examiners will exemplify the lived experiences of each citizen in Catalonia. Moreover, the researchers will utilize one of the types of Phenomenological research which is hermeneutical phenomenology by Van Manen. In quantitative analysis, the researchers utilized the regression analysis in which it will ascertain the causality in an underlying theory in understanding the relationship of the variables. The researchers assigned and identified different variables, wherein the dependent variable or the y which represents the prediction of the researchers, the independent variable however or the x represents the arising problems that grounds the partition of the region, the summation of the independent variable or the ∑x represents the sum of the problem and finally the summation of the dependent variable or the ∑y is the result of the prediction. With these variables, using the regression analysis, the researchers will be able to show the connections and how a single variable could affect the other variables. From these approaches, the prediction of the researchers will be specified. This research could help different states dealing with this kind of problem. It will further help certain states undergoing this problem by analyzing the causes of these insurgencies and the effects on it if it will obstruct its region to consign their full-pledge autonomy.

Keywords: autonomy, liberty, prediction, separation

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Authors: D. Mohammadzadeh S., J. Bolouri Bazaz

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This paper presents a new prediction model for compression index of fine-grained soils using multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. The proposed model relates the soil compression index to its liquid limit, plastic limit and void ratio. Several laboratory test results for fine-grained were used to develop the models. Various criteria were considered to check the validity of the model. The parametric and sensitivity analyses were performed and discussed. The MGGP method was found to be very effective for predicting the soil compression index. A comparative study was further performed to prove the superiority of the MGGP model to the existing soft computing and traditional empirical equations.

Keywords: new prediction model, compression index soil, multi-gene genetic programming, MGGP

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Authors: Biruhi Tesfaye, Avinash M. Potdar

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The laboratory test process to determine the California bearing ratio (CBR) of black cotton soils is not only overpriced but also time-consuming as well. Hence advanced prediction of CBR plays a significant role as it is applicable In pavement design. The prediction of CBR of treated soil was executed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which is a Computational tool based on the properties of the biological neural system. To observe CBR values, combined eggshell and waste glass was added to soil as 4, 8, 12, and 16 % of the weights of the soil samples. Accordingly, the laboratory related tests were conducted to get the required best model. The maximum CBR value found at 5.8 at 8 % of eggshell waste glass powder addition. The model was developed using CBR as an output layer variable. CBR was considered as a function of the joint effect of liquid limit, plastic limit, and plastic index, optimum moisture content and maximum dry density. The best model that has been found was ANN with 5, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layer correspondingly. The performance of selected ANN has been 0.99996, 4.44E-05, 0.00353 and 0.0067 which are correlation coefficient (R), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The research presented or summarized above throws light on future scope on stabilization with waste glass combined with different percentages of eggshell that leads to the economical design of CBR acceptable to pavement sub-base or base, as desired.

Keywords: CBR, artificial neural network, liquid limit, plastic limit, maximum dry density, OMC

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Amir Mabhout, Toktam Ghafarian, Amirhossein Farzin, Zahra Makki, Sajjad Alizadeh, Amirhossein Ghavi

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The high number of Netflix subscribers makes it attractive for data scientists to extract valuable knowledge from the viewers' behavioural analyses. This paper presents a set of statistical insights into viewers' viewing history. After that, a deep learning model is used to predict the future watching behaviour of the users based on previous watching history within the Netflixlatte data pool. Netflixlatte in an aggregated and anonymized data pool of 320 Netflix viewers with a length 250 000 data points recorded between 2008-2022. We observe insightful correlations between the distribution of viewing time and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The presented deep learning model predicts future movie and TV series viewing habits with an average loss of 0.175.

Keywords: data analysis, deep learning, LSTM neural network, netflix

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Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: Yveta Pohnětalová

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The topic of possible forms of future schools according to rapid changes of life in the 21st century has become to reach several economic and social prognoses. In our research, we have tried to find out what the future school form is according to pupils’ parent’s view. School is a part of life of each person and based on own experience there is a certain individual picture created about a possible look of future education. The aim of our quantitative research was to find out how parents of first grade primary school pupils see the ideal school of the future. The quantitative research realized at the Faculty of Education of the University of Hradec Králové (Czech Republic). By statistical analysis of gained data from 120 respondents, there have been several views of schools of future identified in terms of mission and also the way of education. But a common indicator according to addressed parents would be more focused on the overall personality development rather than the field practice which is related to a realistic idea that school of the future is not and will not be the only source of education.

Keywords: parents’ approach, school of the future, survey, ways of education

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Authors: Sheetla Prasad

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The focus issue of this article is to determine the mechanism of mind with geometrical analysis of human face. Research paradigm has been designed for study of spatial dynamic of face and it was found that different shapes of face have their own function for determine the action of mind. The functional ratio (FR) of face has determined the behaviour operation of human beings. It is not based on the formulistic approach of prediction but scientific dogmatism and mathematical analysis is the root of the prediction of behaviour. For analysis, formulae were developed and standardized. It was found that human psyche is designed in three forms; manipulated, manifested and real psyche. Functional output of the psyche has been determined by degree of energy flow in the psyche and reserve energy for future. Face is the recipient and transmitter of energy but distribution and control is the possible by mind. Mind directs behaviour. FR indicates that the face is a power house of energy and as per its geometrical domain force of behaviours has been designed and actions are possible in the nature of individual. The impact factor of this study is the promotion of human capital for job fitness objective and minimization of criminalization in society.

Keywords: functional ratio, manipulated psyche, manifested psyche, real psyche

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Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

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Authors: Heichia Wang, Yalan Chao

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Social inequality is a persistent problem. One of the ways to solve this problem is through education. At present, vulnerable groups are often less geographically accessible to educational resources. However, compared with educational resources, communication equipment is easier for vulnerable groups. Now that information and communication technology (ICT) has entered the field of education, today we can accept the convenience that ICT provides in education, and the mobility that it brings makes learning independent of time and place. With mobile learning, teachers and students can start discussions in an online chat room without the limitations of time or place. However, because liquidity learning is quite convenient, people tend to solve problems in short online texts with lack of detailed information in a lack of convenient online environment to express ideas. Therefore, the ICT education environment may cause misunderstanding between teachers and students. Therefore, in order to better understand each other's views between teachers and students, this study aims to clarify the essays of the analysts and classify the students into several types of learning questions to clarify the views of teachers and students. In addition, this study attempts to extend the description of possible omissions in short texts by using external resources prior to classification. In short, by applying a short text classification, this study can point out each student's learning problems and inform the instructor where the main focus of the future course is, thus improving the ICT education environment. In order to achieve the goals, this research uses convolutional neural network (CNN) method to analyze short discussion content between teachers and students in an ICT education environment. Divide students into several main types of learning problem groups to facilitate answering student problems. In addition, this study will further cluster sub-categories of each major learning type to indicate specific problems for each student. Unlike most neural network programs, this study attempts to extend short texts with external resources before classifying them to improve classification performance. In short, by applying the classification of short texts, we can point out the learning problems of each student and inform the instructors where the main focus of future courses will improve the ICT education environment. The data of the empirical process will be used to pre-process the chat records between teachers and students and the course materials. An action system will be set up to compare the most similar parts of the teaching material with each student's chat history to improve future classification performance. Later, the function of short text classification uses CNN to classify rich chat records into several major learning problems based on theory-driven titles. By applying these modules, this research hopes to clarify the main learning problems of students and inform teachers that they should focus on future teaching.

Keywords: ICT education improvement, social equality, short text analysis, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

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As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

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Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

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Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Leyla López

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an algorithm that predicts the arrival of a secondary user (SU) to a base station (BS) in a cognitive network based on infrastructure, requesting a Best Effort (BE) or Real Time (RT) type of service with a determined bandwidth (BW) implementing neural networks. The algorithm dynamically uses a neural network construction technique using the geometric pyramid topology and trains a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) based on the historical arrival of an SU to estimate future applications. This will allow efficiently managing the information in the BS, since it precedes the arrival of the SUs in the stage of selection of the best channel in CRN. As a result, the software application determines the probability of arrival at a future time point and calculates the performance metrics to measure the effectiveness of the predictions made.

Keywords: cognitive radio, base station, best effort, MLPNN, prediction, real time

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

Abstract:

Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, gain

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Jia-Shiun Chen, Quoc-Viet Huynh

Abstract:

This work develops a flexible-body dynamic model of an all-terrain vehicle (ATV), capable of recovering dynamic stresses while the ATV travels on random bumpy roads. The fatigue life of components is forecasted as well. While considering the interaction between dynamic forces and structure deformation, the proposed model achieves a highly accurate structure stress prediction and fatigue life prediction. During the simulation, stress time history of the ATV structure is retrieved for life prediction. Finally, the hot sports of the ATV frame are located, and the frame life for combined road conditions is forecasted, i.e. 25833.6 hr. If the usage of vehicle is eight hours daily, the total vehicle frame life is 8.847 years. Moreover, the reaction force and deformation due to the dynamic motion can be described more accurately by using flexible body dynamics than by using rigid-body dynamics. Based on recommendations made in the product design stage before mass production, the proposed model can significantly lower development and testing costs.

Keywords: flexible-body dynamics, veicle, dynamics, fatigue, durability

Procedia PDF Downloads 368