Search results for: first order error analysis

Authors: Wilson Enríquez, Daniel Cardenas

Abstract:

This article proposes a filter bank format combined with the mathematical tool called polyphase decomposition and the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) with the purpose of improving the performance of the fifth-generation communication systems (5G). We started with a review of the literature and the study of the filter bank theory and its combination with DFT in order to improve the performance of wireless communications since it reduces the computational complexity of these communication systems. With the proposed technique, several experiments were carried out in order to evaluate the structures in 5G systems. Finally, the results are presented in graphical form in terms of bit error rate against the ratio bit energy/noise power spectral density (BER vs. Eb / No).

Keywords: multi-carrier system (5G), filter bank, polyphase decomposition, FIR equalizer

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Leticia Cervantes, Edith Garcia, Oscar Castillo

Abstract:

At today, there are several control problems where the main objective is to obtain the best control in the study to decrease the error in the application. Many techniques can use to control these problems such as Neural Networks, PID control, Fuzzy Logic, Optimization techniques and many more. In this case, fuzzy logic with fuzzy system and an optimization technique are used to control the case of study. In this case, Ant Lion Optimization is used to optimize a fuzzy system to control the velocity of a simple treadmill. The main objective is to achieve the control of the velocity in the control problem using the ALO optimization. First, a simple fuzzy system was used to control the velocity of the treadmill it has two inputs (error and error change) and one output (desired speed), then results were obtained but to decrease the error the ALO optimization was developed to optimize the fuzzy system of the treadmill. Having the optimization, the simulation was performed, and results can prove that using the ALO optimization the control of the velocity was better than a conventional fuzzy system. This paper describes some basic concepts to help to understand the idea in this work, the methodology of the investigation (control problem, fuzzy system design, optimization), the results are presented and the optimization is used for the fuzzy system. A comparison between the simple fuzzy system and the optimized fuzzy systems are presented where it can be proving the optimization improved the control with good results the major findings of the study is that ALO optimization is a good alternative to improve the control because it helped to decrease the error in control applications even using any control technique to optimized, As a final statement is important to mentioned that the selected methodology was good because the control of the treadmill was improve using the optimization technique.

Keywords: ant lion optimization, control problem, fuzzy control, fuzzy system

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Qiao-Yu Warren Cai

Abstract:

Due to the rise of big data, building corpora and using them to analyze ChineseL2 learners’ language output has become a trend. Various empirical research has been conducted using Chinese corpora built by different academic institutes. However, most of the research analyzed the data in the Chinese corpora usingcorpus-based qualitative content analysis with descriptive statistics. Descriptive statistics can be used to make summations about the subjects or samples that research has actually measured to describe the numerical data, but the collected data cannot be generalized to the population. Comte, a Frenchpositivist, has argued since the 19th century that human beings’ knowledge, whether the discipline is humanistic and social science or natural science, should be verified in a scientific way to construct a universal theory to explain the truth and human beings behaviors. Inferential statistics, able to make judgments of the probability of a difference observed between groups being dependable or caused by chance (Free Geography Notes, 2015)and to infer from the subjects or examples what the population might think or behave, is just the right method to support Comte’s argument in the field of TCSOL. Also, inferential statistics is a core of quantitative research, but little research has been conducted by combing corpora with inferential statistics. Little research analyzes the differences in Chinese L2 learners’ language corpus output errors by using theOne-way ANOVA so that the findings of previous research are limited to inferring the population's Chinese errors according to the given samples’ Chinese corpora. To fill this knowledge gap in the professional development of Taiwanese TCSOL, the present study aims to utilize the One-way ANOVA to analyze corpus output errors of Chinese L2 learners from America, Myanmar, and Singapore. The results show that no significant difference exists in ‘shì (是) sentence’ and word order errors, but compared with Americans and Singaporeans, it is significantly easier for Myanmar to have ‘sentence blends.’ Based on the above results, the present study provides an instructional approach and contributes to further exploration of how Chinese L2 learners can have (and use) learning strategies to lower errors.

Keywords: Chinese corpus, error analysis, one-way analysis of variance, Chinese L2 learners, Americans, myanmar, Singaporeans

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Guillaume Leduc

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a broad setting under which the error of the approximation can be quantified, controlled, and for which convergence occurs at a speed of n⁻¹ for European and American options. We describe how knowledge of the error allows for arbitrarily fast acceleration of the convergence.

Keywords: random walk approximation, European and American options, rate of convergence, option pricing

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

Abstract:

Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Amine M. Benmehaia, Amine Oulmane

Abstract:

The supply response of agricultural commodities to changes in price incentives is an important issue for the success of any policy reform in the agricultural sector. This study aims to quantify the responsiveness of producers of some livestock commodities to price incentives in Algerian context. Time series analysis is used on annual data for a period of 52 years (1966-2018). Both co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) are used through the Nerlove model of partial adjustment. The study attempts to determine the long-run and short-run relationships along with the magnitudes of disequilibria in the selected commodities. Results show that the short-run price elasticities are low in cow and sheep meat sectors (8.7 and 8% respectively), while their respective long-run elasticities are 16.5 and 10.5, whereas eggs and milk have very high short-run price elasticities (82 and 90% respectively) with long-run elasticities of 40 and 46 respectively. The error correction coefficient, reflecting the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium, is statistically significant and have the expected negative sign. Its estimates are 12.7 for cow meat, 33.5 for sheep meat, 46.7 for eggs and 8.4 for milk. It seems that cow meat and milk producers have a weak feedback of about 12.7% and 8.4% respectively of the previous year's disequilibrium from the long-run price elasticity, whereas sheep meat and eggs producers adjust to correct long run disequilibrium with a high speed of adjustment (33.5% and 46.7 % respectively). The implication of this is that much more in-depth research is needed to identify those factors that affect agricultural supply and to describe the effect of factors that shift supply in response to price incentives. This could provide valuable information for government in the use of appropriate policy measures.

Keywords: Algeria, cointegration, livestock, supply response, vector error correction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Mohamed O. Babana

Abstract:

In wireless channel multipath is the propagation phenomena where the transmitted signal arrive at the receiver side with many of paths, the signal at these paths arrive with different time delay the results is random signal fading due to intersymbols interference(ISI). This paper deals with identification of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) technology, and how it is used to overcome intersymbol interference due to multipath. Also investigates the effect of Additive White Gaussian Noise Channel (AWGN) on OFDM using multi-level modulation of Phase Shift Keying (PSK), computer simulation to calculate the bit error rate (BER) under AWGN channel is applied. A comparison study is carried out to obtain the Bit Error Rate performance for OFDM to identify the best multi-level modulation of PSK.

Keywords: intersymbol interference(ISI), bit error rate(BER), modulation, multiplexing, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

Abstract:

Quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) analysis was used to predict the chromatographic behavior of s-triazine derivatives by using theoretical descriptors computed from the chemical structure. Fundamental basis of the reported investigation is to relate molecular topological descriptors with chromatographic behavior of s-triazine derivatives obtained by reversed-phase (RP) thin layer chromatography (TLC) on silica gel impregnated with paraffin oil and applied ethanol-water (φ = 0.5-0.8; v/v). Retention parameter (RM0) of 14 investigated s-triazine derivatives was used as dependent variable while simple connectivity index different orders were used as independent variables. The best QSRR model for predicting RM0 value was obtained with simple third order connectivity index (3χ) in the second-degree polynomial equation. Numerical values of the correlation coefficient (r=0.915), Fisher's value (F=28.34) and root mean square error (RMSE = 0.36) indicate that model is statistically significant. In order to test the predictive power of the QSRR model leave-one-out cross-validation technique has been applied. The parameters of the internal cross-validation analysis (r2CV=0.79, r2adj=0.81, PRESS=1.89) reflect the high predictive ability of the generated model and it confirms that can be used to predict RM0 value. Multivariate classification technique, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), has been applied in order to group molecules according to their molecular connectivity indices. HCA is a descriptive statistical method and it is the most frequently used for important area of data processing such is classification. The HCA performed on simple molecular connectivity indices obtained from the 2D structure of investigated s-triazine compounds resulted in two main clusters in which compounds molecules were grouped according to the number of atoms in the molecule. This is in agreement with the fact that these descriptors were calculated on the basis of the number of atoms in the molecule of the investigated s-triazine derivatives.

Keywords: s-triazines, QSRR, chemometrics, chromatography, molecular descriptors

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: João Rato, Nuno Costa

Abstract:

The human verbal communication is a two-way process which requires a mutual understanding that will result in some considerations. This kind of communication, also called dialogue, besides the supposed human agents it can also be performed between human agents and machines. The interaction between Men and Machines, by means of a natural language, has an important role concerning the improvement of the communication between each other. Aiming at knowing the performance of some speech recognition systems, this document shows the results of the accomplished tests according to the Word Error Rate evaluation method. Besides that, it is also given a set of information linked to the systems of Man-Machine communication. After this work has been made, conclusions were drawn regarding the Speech Recognition Systems, among which it can be mentioned their poor performance concerning the voice interpretation in noisy environments.

Keywords: automatic speech recognition, man-machine conversation, speech recognition, spoken dialogue systems, word error rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Aprajeeta Jha, Punyadarshini P. Tripathy

Abstract:

Drying is one of the most critical unit operations for prolonging the shelf-life of food grains in order to ensure global food security. Photovoltaic integrated solar dryers can be a sustainable solution for replacing energy intensive thermal dryers as it is capable of drying in off-sunshine hours and provide better control over drying conditions. But, performance and reliability of PV based solar dryers depend hugely on climatic conditions thereby, drastically affecting process parameters. Therefore, to ensure quality and prolonged shelf-life of paddy, optimization of process parameters for solar dryers is critical. Proper moisture distribution within the grains is most detrimental factor to enhance the shelf-life of paddy therefore; modeling of mass transport can help in providing a better insight of moisture migration. Hence, present work aims at optimizing the process parameters and to develop a 3D finite element model (FEM) for predicting moisture profile in paddy during solar drying. Optimization of process parameters (power level, air velocity and moisture content) was done using box Behnken model in Design expert software. Furthermore, COMSOL Multiphysics was employed to develop a 3D finite element model for predicting moisture profile. Optimized model for drying paddy was found to be 700W, 2.75 m/s and 13% wb with optimum temperature, milling yield and drying time of 42˚C, 62%, 86 min respectively, having desirability of 0.905. Furthermore, 3D finite element model (FEM) for predicting moisture migration in single kernel for every time step has been developed. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE) and standard error (SE) were found to be 0.003, 0.0531 and 0.0007, respectively, indicating close agreement of model with experimental results. Above optimized conditions can be successfully used to dry paddy in PV integrated solar dryer in order to attain maximum uniformity, quality and yield of product to achieve global food and energy security

Keywords: finite element modeling, hybrid solar drying, mass transport, paddy, process optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Óscar Alfonso Gómez Sepúlveda, Julián Ernesto Jaramillo, Diego Camilo Durán

Abstract:

The global climate crisis has affected different aspects of human life, and in an effort to reverse the effects generated, we seek to optimize and improve the equipment and plants that produce high emissions of CO₂, being possible to achieve this through numerical simulations. These equipments include biomass combustion chambers. The objective of this research is to visualize the thermal behavior of a gas chamber that is used in the process of obtaining vegetable extracts. The simulation is carried out with OpenFOAM taking into account the conservation of energy, turbulence, and radiation; for the purposes of the simulation, combustion is omitted and replaced by heat generation. Within the results, the streamlines generated by the primary and secondary flows are analyzed in order to visualize whether they generate the expected effect, and the energy is used to the maximum. The inclusion of radiation seeks to compare its influence and also simplify the computational times to perform mesh analysis. An analysis is carried out with simplified geometries and with experimental data to corroborate the selection of the models to be used, and it is obtained that for turbulence, the appropriate one is the standard k - w. As a means of verification, a general energy balance is made and compared with the results of the numerical analysis, where the error is 1.67%, which is considered acceptable. From the approach to improvement options, it was found that with the implementation of fins, heat can be increased by up to 7.3%.

Keywords: CFD analysis, biomass, heat transfer, radiation, OpenFOAM

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: M. Z. Kurian, M. V. Chidananda Murthy, H. S. Guruprasad

Abstract:

An approach to super-resolve the low-resolution (LR) image is presented in this paper which is very useful in multimedia communication, medical image enhancement and satellite image enhancement to have a clear view of the information in the image. The proposed Advanced B-Spline method generates a high-resolution (HR) image from single LR image and tries to retain the higher frequency components such as edges in the image. This method uses B-Spline technique and Crispening. This work is evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively using Mean Square Error (MSE) and Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). The method is also suitable for real-time applications. Different combinations of decimation and super-resolution algorithms in the presence of different noise and noise factors are tested.

Keywords: advanced b-spline, image super-resolution, mean square error (MSE), peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR), resolution down converter

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Mohammad Heidari

Abstract:

In this paper a method for high strength steel is proposed of residual stresses in autofrettaged tubes by combination of artificial neural networks is presented. Many different thick walled cylinders that were subjected to different conditions were studied. At first, the residual stress is calculated by analytical solution. Then by changing of the parameters that influenced in residual stresses such as percentage of autofrettage, internal pressure, wall ratio of cylinder, material property of cylinder, bauschinger and hardening effect factor, a neural network is created. These parameters are the input of network. The output of network is residual stress. Numerical data, employed for training the network and capabilities of the model in predicting the residual stress has been verified. The output obtained from neural network model is compared with numerical results, and the amount of relative error has been calculated. Based on this verification error, it is shown that the radial basis function of neural network has the average error of 2.75% in predicting residual stress of thick wall cylinder. Further analysis of residual stress of thick wall cylinder under different input conditions has been investigated and comparison results of modeling with numerical considerations shows a good agreement, which also proves the feasibility and effectiveness of the adopted approach.

Keywords: thick walled cylinder, residual stress, radial basis, artificial neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Beema Akbar, Varun P. Gopi, V. Suresh Babu

Abstract:

Colon cancer causes the deaths of about half a million people every year. The common method of its detection is histopathological tissue analysis, it leads to tiredness and workload to the pathologist. A novel method is proposed that combines both structural and statistical pattern recognition used for the detection of colon cancer. This paper presents a comparison among the different classifiers such as Multilayer Perception (MLP), Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) and k-star by using classification accuracy and error rate based on the percentage split method. The result shows that the best algorithm in WEKA is MLP classifier with an accuracy of 83.333% and kappa statistics is 0.625. The MLP classifier which has a lower error rate, will be preferred as more powerful classification capability.

Keywords: colon cancer, histopathological image, structural and statistical pattern recognition, multilayer perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 575

Authors: Marylene N. Tizon

Abstract:

English instructors pay attention on errors committed by students as errors show whether they know or master their oral skills and what difficulties they may have in the process of learning the English language. This descriptive quantitative study aimed at identifying and categorizing the oral presentation errors of the purposively chosen 118 English 2A students enrolled during the first semester of school year 2013 – 2014. The analysis of the data for this study was undertaken using the errors committed by the students in their presentation. Marking and classifying of errors were made by first classifying them into linguistic grammatical errors then all errors were categorized further into Surface Structure Errors Taxonomy with the use of Frequency and Percentage distribution. From the analysis of the data, the researcher found out: Errors in tenses of the verbs (71 or 16%) and in addition 167 or 37% were most frequently uttered by the students. And Question and negation mistakes (12 or 3%) and misordering errors (28 or 7%) were least frequently enunciated by the students. Thus, the respondents in this study most frequently enunciated errors in tenses and in addition while they uttered least frequently the errors in question, negation, and misordering.

Keywords: grammatical error, oral presentation error, surface structure errors taxonomy, descriptive quantitative design, Philippines, Asia

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Rafsan Al Mamun, Md. Motaharul Islam, Rabana Tajrin, Nabiha Noor, Shafinaz Qader

Abstract:

In an attempt to enrich the lives of billions of people by providing proper information, security and a way of communicating with others, the need for efficient and improved satellites is constantly growing. Thus, there is an increasing demand for better error detection and correction (EDAC) schemes, which are capable of protecting the data onboard the satellites. The paper is aimed towards detecting and correcting such errors using a special algorithm called the Hamming Code, which uses the concept of parity and parity bits to prevent single-bit errors onboard a satellite in Low Earth Orbit. This paper focuses on the study of Low Earth Orbit satellites and the process of generating the Hamming Code matrix to be used for EDAC using computer programs. The most effective version of Hamming Code generated was the Hamming (16, 11, 4) version using MATLAB, and the paper compares this particular scheme with other EDAC mechanisms, including other versions of Hamming Codes and Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC), and the limitations of this scheme. This particular version of the Hamming Code guarantees single-bit error corrections as well as double-bit error detections. Furthermore, this version of Hamming Code has proved to be fast with a checking time of 5.669 nanoseconds, that has a relatively higher code rate and lower bit overhead compared to the other versions and can detect a greater percentage of errors per length of code than other EDAC schemes with similar capabilities. In conclusion, with the proper implementation of the system, it is quite possible to ensure a relatively uncorrupted satellite storage system.

Keywords: bit-flips, Hamming code, low earth orbit, parity bits, satellite, single error upset

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

Abstract:

The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

Procedia PDF Downloads 581

Authors: Y. T. Lee, J. H. Na, S. H. Kim, S. U. Hong

Abstract:

In this study, an experimental research for estimation of slab depth, column size and location of rebar of concrete specimen is conducted using the Impact Echo Method (IE) based on stress wave among non-destructive test methods. Estimation of slab depth had total length of 1800×300 and 6 different depths including 150 mm, 180 mm, 210 mm, 240 mm, 270 mm and 300 mm. The concrete column specimen was manufactured by differentiating the size into 300×300×300 mm, 400×400×400 mm and 500×500×500 mm. In case of the specimen for estimation of rebar, rebar of ∅22 mm was used in a specimen of 300×370×200 and arranged at 130 mm and 150 mm from the top to the rebar top. As a result of error rate of slab depth was overall mean of 3.1%. Error rate of column size was overall mean of 1.7%. Mean error rate of rebar location was 1.72% for top, 1.19% for bottom and 1.5% for overall mean showing relative accuracy.

Keywords: impact echo method, estimation, slab depth, column size, rebar location, concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Emad A. Mohammed

Abstract:

The concept of hydraulic flow units (HFU) has been used for decades in the petroleum industry to improve the prediction of permeability. This concept is strongly related to the flow zone indicator (FZI) which is a function of the reservoir rock quality index (RQI). Both indices are based on reservoir porosity and permeability of core samples. It is assumed that core samples with similar FZI values belong to the same HFU. Thus, after dividing the porosity-permeability data based on the HFU, transformations can be done in order to estimate the permeability from the porosity. The conventional practice is to use the power law transformation using conventional HFU where percentage of error is considerably high. In this paper, neural network technique is employed as a soft computing transformation method to predict permeability instead of power law method to avoid higher percentage of error. This technique is based on HFU identification where Amaefule et al. (1993) method is utilized. In this regard, Kozeny and Carman (K–C) model, and modified K–C model by Hasan and Hossain (2011) are employed. A comparison is made between the two transformation techniques for the two porosity-permeability models. Results show that the modified K-C model helps in getting better results with lower percentage of error in predicting permeability. The results also show that the use of artificial intelligence techniques give more accurate prediction than power law method. This study was conducted on a heterogeneous complex carbonate reservoir in Oman. Data were collected from seven wells to obtain the permeability correlations for the whole field. The findings of this study will help in getting better estimation of permeability of a complex reservoir.

Keywords: permeability, hydraulic flow units, artificial intelligence, correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

Abstract:

For an operator in a nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. The possibility of human errors may be low, but the risk of them would be unimaginably enormous. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze the influence of any factors which may raise the possibility of human errors. During the past decades, not a few research results showed that performance of human operators may vary over time due to lots of factors. Among them, stress is known to be an indirect factor that may cause human errors and result in mental illness. Until now, not a few assessment tools have been developed to assess stress level of human workers. However, it still is questionable to utilize them for human performance anticipation which is related with human error possibility, because they were mainly developed from the viewpoint of mental health rather than industrial safety. Stress level of a person may go up or down with work time. In that sense, if they would be applicable in the safety aspect, they should be able to assess the variation resulted from work time at least. Therefore, this study aimed to compare their applicability for safety purpose. More than 10 kinds of work stress tools were analyzed with reference to assessment items, assessment and analysis methods, and follow-up measures which are known to close related factors with work stress. The results showed that most tools mainly focused their weights on some common organizational factors such as demands, supports, and relationships, in sequence. Their weights were broadly similar. However, they failed to recommend practical solutions. Instead, they merely advised to set up overall counterplans in PDCA cycle or risk management activities which would be far from practical human error prevention. Thus, it was concluded that application of stress assessment tools mainly developed for mental health seemed to be impractical for safety purpose with respect to human performance anticipation, and that development of a new assessment tools would be inevitable if anyone wants to assess stress level in the aspect of human performance variation and accident prevention. As a consequence, as practical counterplans, this study proposed a new scheme for assessment of work stress level of a human operator that may vary over work time which is closely related with the possibility of human errors.

Keywords: human error, human performance, work stress, assessment tool, time-variant, accident prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 673

Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

Abstract:

Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: P. V. Pramila , V. Mahesh

Abstract:

Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients esulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF 25, PEF,FEF 25-75, FEF50, and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF 25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects). It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV, multivariate adaptive regression splines pulmonary function test, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Lawrence A. Farinola

Abstract:

Four point implicit schemes for the approximation of the first and pure second order derivatives for the solution of the Dirichlet problem for one dimensional Schrodinger equation with respect to the time variable t were constructed. Also, special four-point implicit difference boundary value problems are proposed for the first and pure second derivatives of the solution with respect to the spatial variable x. The Grid method is also applied to the mixed second derivative of the solution of the Linear Schrodinger time-dependent equation. It is assumed that the initial function belongs to the Holder space C⁸⁺ᵃ, 0 < α < 1, the Schrodinger wave function given in the Schrodinger equation is from the Holder space Cₓ,ₜ⁶⁺ᵃ, ³⁺ᵃ/², the boundary functions are from C⁴⁺ᵃ, and between the initial and the boundary functions the conjugation conditions of orders q = 0,1,2,3,4 are satisfied. It is proven that the solution of the proposed difference schemes converges uniformly on the grids of the order O(h²+ k) where h is the step size in x and k is the step size in time. Numerical experiments are illustrated to support the analysis made.

Keywords: approximation of derivatives, finite difference method, Schrödinger equation, uniform error

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: M. Vassou, A. Karasimos

Abstract:

A primary concern in the field of Second Language Acquisition (SLA) research is to determine the innate mechanisms of second language learning and acquisition through the systematic study of a learner's interlanguage. Errors emerge while a learner attempts to communicate using the target-language and can be seen either as the observable linguistic product of the latent cognitive and language process of mental representations or as an indispensable learning mechanism. Therefore, the study of the learner’s erroneous forms may depict the various strategies and mechanisms that take place during the language acquisition process resulting in deviations from the target-language norms and difficulties in communication. Mapping the erroneous utterances of a late adult learner in the process of acquiring Greek as a second language constitutes one of the main aims of this study. For our research purposes, we created an error-tagged learner corpus composed of the participant’s written texts produced throughout a period of a 4- year instructed language acquisition. Error analysis and interlanguage theory constitute the methodological and theoretical framework, respectively. The research questions pertain to the learner's most frequent errors per linguistic category and per year as well as his choices concerning the Greek Article System. According to the quantitative analysis of the data, the most frequent errors are observed in the categories of the stress system and syntax, whereas a significant fluctuation and/or gradual reduction throughout the 4 years of instructed acquisition indicate the emergence of developmental stages. The findings with regard to the article usage bespeak fossilization of erroneous structures in certain contexts. In general, our results point towards the existence and further development of an established learner’s (inter-) language system governed not only by mother- tongue and target-language influences but also by the learner’s assumptions and set of rules as the result of a complex cognitive process. It is expected that this study will contribute not only to the knowledge in the field of Greek as a second language and SLA generally, but it will also provide an insight into the cognitive mechanisms and strategies developed by multilingual learners of late adulthood.

Keywords: Greek as a second language, error analysis, interlanguage, late adult learner

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 504

Authors: Jae-Yong Lee, Gyu-Hyun Bae, Yun-Soo Chung, Dae-Sub Kim, Jae-Sung Bae

Abstract:

In general, fabric is heat-treated using a stenter machine in order to dry and fix its shape. It is important to shape before the heat treatment because it is difficult to revert back once the fabric is formed. To produce the product of right shape, camera type weft straightener has been applied recently to capture and process fabric images quickly. It is more powerful in determining the final textile quality rather than photo-sensor. Positioning in front of a stenter machine, weft straightener helps to spread fabric evenly and control the angle between warp and weft constantly as right angle by handling skew and bow rollers. To process this tricky procedure, the structural analysis should be carried out in advance, based on which, its control technology can be drawn. A structural analysis is to figure out the specific contact/slippage characteristics between fabric and roller. We already examined the applicability of camera type weft straightener to plain weave fabric and found its possibility and the specific working condition of machine and rollers. In this research, we aimed to explore another applicability of camera type weft straightener. Namely, we tried to figure out camera type weft straightener can be used for fabrics. To find out the optimum condition, we increased the number of rollers. The analysis is done by ANSYS software using Finite Element Analysis method. The control function is demonstrated by experiment. In conclusion, the structural analysis of weft straightener is done to identify a specific characteristic between roller and fabrics. The control of skew and bow roller is done to decrease the error of the angle between warp and weft. Finally, it is proved that camera type straightener can also be used for the special fabrics.

Keywords: camera type weft straightener, structure analysis, control, skew and bow roller

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

Abstract:

The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

Abstract:

The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Matteo Bonaventura, Giancarlo Giudici

Abstract:

This paper analyses the valuation process of companies listed on the Italian Exchange in the period 2000-2009 at their Initial Public Offering (IPO). One the most common valuation techniques declared in the IPO prospectus to determine the offer price is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. We develop a ‘reverse engineering’ model to discover the short term profitability implied in the offer prices. We show that there is a significant optimistic bias in the estimation of future profitability compared to ex-post actual realization and the mean forecast error is substantially large. Yet we show that such error characterizes also the estimations carried out by analysts evaluating non-IPO companies. The forecast error is larger the faster has been the recent growth of the company, the higher is the leverage of the IPO firm, the more companies issued equity on the market. IPO companies generally exhibit better operating performance before the listing, with respect to comparable listed companies, while after the flotation they do not perform significantly different in term of return on invested capital. Pre-IPO book building activity plays a significant role in partially reducing the forecast error and revising expectations, while the market price of the first day of trading does not contain information for further reducing forecast errors.

Keywords: initial public offerings, DCF, book building, post-IPO profitability drop

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

Abstract:

Nowadays reversible logic has received many attentions as one of the new fields for reducing the power consumption. On the other hand, the processing systems have weaknesses against different external effects. In this paper, some error detecting reversible logic serial multipliers are proposed by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. This way, the new designs are presented for signed parity-preserving serial multipliers based on the Booth's algorithm by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates. The experimental results show that the proposed 4×4 multipliers in this paper reach up to 20%, 35%, and 41% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, quantum cost, and gate count, respectively, as the reversible logic criteria, compared to previous designs. Furthermore, all the proposed designs have been generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Booth’s algorithm, error detection, multiplication, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic

Procedia PDF Downloads 228