Search results for: economic policy uncertainty

Authors: Anupam Das

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Although financial liberalization has been one of the most important policy prescriptions of international organizations like the World Bank and the IMF, the effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in developing countries is far from unanimous. Since the '80s, South Asian countries made a significant development in liberalization the financial sector. However, due to unavailability of a sufficient number of time series observations, the relationship between economic growth and financial development has not been investigated adequately. We aim to fill this gap by examining time series data of five developing countries from the South Asian region: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. Applying the cointegration tests and Granger causality within the vector error correction model (VECM), we do not find unanimous evidence of financial development on positive economic growth. These results are helpful for developing countries which have been trying to liberalize the financial sector in recent decades.

Keywords: economic growth, financial development, Granger causality, South Asia

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Authors: Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has significantly improved the real GDP and reduced the government fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the removal of the fuel subsidy has increased most of the local commodity prices, especially energy commodities. The findings of the study could provide some imperative inputs for policy makers, especially to identify the right policy mechanism. This is especially ensures the subsidy savings from subsidy removal could be transferred back into the domestic economy in the form of infrastructure development, compensation and increases in others sector output contributions towards a sustainable economic growth.

Keywords: CGE, deficit, energy, reform, subsidy

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Authors: Sela Adjei

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This paper aims to rationalize the need for media policy implementation and copyright enforcement to address various challenges faced within Ghana’s film industry. After Ghana transitioned to democratic rule in 1992, critics and media professionals advocated a national media policy. This advocacy subsequently resulted in agitation for media deregulation and loosening of grip on state-owned media organizations. The reinstatement of constitutional rule in 1992 paved the way for the state to lax its monopoly of the media within the democratic context of a free market economy. The National Media Commission proposed a media policy and broadcast bill which was presented to parliament but has still not been passed into law. This legislative lapse partly contributed to the influx of unregulated foreign content. Accessible foreign media content subsequently promoted a system of unfair competition that radically undermined locally produced content, putting a generation of thriving film producers out of work. Drawing on reflections from a series of structured interviews, focus group discussions and creative workshops, the findings of this study maintain that the various challenges confronting Ghanaian filmmakers is centred around inadequate funding opportunities, copyright violation and policy implementation issues. Using the film industry structure and value chain analysis, the various challenges faced by the selected film producers were discussed and critically analyzed. A significant aspect of this study is the solution-driven approach adopted in outlining the practical recommendations that will boost the aesthetic, cultural and economic value of Ghanaian film productions. Based on the discussions and conclusions drawn with the various stakeholders within Ghana’s creative industries, the paper makes a strong case for firm state regulation, copyright enforcement and policy implementation to grow Ghana’s film industry.

Keywords: film, value, copyright, media, policy, culture, regulation, economy

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Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

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Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: Amadou Banda Ndione, Charles Awono Onana

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In this paper the compartmental approach is applied to build a macroeconomic model characterized by countries. We consider a total of N countries that are subdivided into three compartments according to their economic status: D(t) denotes the compartment of developing countries at time t, E(t) stands for the compartment of emerging countries at time t while A(t) represents advanced countries at time t. The model describes the process of economic development and includes the notion of openness through collaborations between countries. Two delays appear in this model to describe the average time necessary for collaborations between countries to become efficient for their development process. Our model represents the different stages of development. It further gives the conditions under which a country can change its economic status and demonstrates the short-term positive effect of openness on economic growth. In addition, we investigate bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examine the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical part and to support discussion.

Keywords: compartmental systems, delayed dynamical system, economic development, fiscal policy, hopf bifurcation

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Authors: Giorgi Sulashvili, Vladimer Kekenadze, Olga Khutsishvili, Bela Khotenashvili, Tsiuri Phkhakadze, Besarion Tsikhelashvili

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The article dealt with the South Caucasus is a complex economic policy, which consists of strands: The process of deepening economic integration in the South Caucasus region; deepening economic integration with the EU in the framework of "Neighbourhood policy with Europe" and in line with the Maastricht criteria; the development of bilateral trade and economic relations with many countries of the world community; the development of sufficient conditions for the integration of the South Caucasus region in the world to enter the market. According to the author, to determine the place of Georgia in the regional policy of the South Caucasus, it is necessary to consider two views about Georgia: The first is the view of Georgia, as a part of global economic and political processes and the second look at Georgia, as a country located in the geo-economic and geopolitical space of the South Caucasus. Such approaches reveal the place of Georgia in two dimensions; in the global and regional economies. In the countries of South Caucasus, the tourism has been developing fast and has a great social and economic importance. Tourism influences deeply on the social and economic growth of the regions of the country. Tourism development formulates thousand new jobs, fixes the positions of small and middle businesses, ensures the development of the education and culture of the population. In the countries of South Caucasus, the Tourist Industry can be specified as the intersectoral complex, which consists of travel transport and it’s technical service network, tourist enterprises which are specialized in various types, wide network services. Tourists have a chance to enjoy all of these services. At the transitional stage of shifting to the market economy, tourism is among the priorities in the development of the national economy of our country. It is true that the Georgian tourism faces a range of problems at present, but its recognition and the necessity for its development may be considered as a fact. Besides, we would underline that the revitalization of the Georgian tourism is not only the question of time. This area can bring a lot of benefits as to private firms, as to specific countries. It also has many negative effects were conducted fundamental research and studies to consider both, positive and negative impacts of tourism. In the future such decisions will be taken that will bring, the maximum benefit at minimum cost, in order for tourism to take its place in Georgia it is necessary to understand the role of the tourism sector in the economic structure.

Keywords: transitional stage, national economy, Georgian tourism, positive and negative impacts

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Authors: Gaafar Muhammed, N. T. Ersoy

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The role of electricity in the economic development of any country is undeniable. The main goal of utilizing renewable sources in electricity generation, especially in the emerging countries, is to improve electricity access, economic development and energy sustainability. Germany’s recent transition from conventional to renewable energy technologies is overwhelming, this might not be associated with its abundant natural resources but owing to the policies in place. In line with the fast economic and technological developments recorded in recent years, Germany currently produces approximately 1059 GW of its energy from renewable sources. Hence, at the end of 2016, Germany is among the world leaders in terms of installed renewable energy capacity. As one of the most important factors that lead to renewable energy utilization in any nation is an effective policy, this study aims at examining the effect of policies on renewable energy (RE) development in Germany. Also, the study will focus on the evolution of the adopted feed-in tariff policies, as this evolution has affected the renewable energy capacity in Germany over a period of 15 years (2000 to 2015). The main contribution of the study is to establish a link between the feed-in tariff and the increase of RE in Germany’s energy mix. This is done by analyzing the characteristics of various feed-in tariff mechanisms adopted through the years. These characteristics include the feed-in-tariff rate, degression, special conditions, supported technology, etc. Then, the renewable energy development in Germany has been analyzed through the years along with the targets and the progress in reaching these targets. The study reveals that Germany’s renewable energy support policies (especially feed-in tariff) lead to several benefits and contribute towards the targets existing for renewable energy.

Keywords: feed-in tariff, Germany, policy, penewable energy

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Authors: Arbolino Roberta, Boffardi Raffaele

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Achieving the highest effectiveness for the National Plans for Recovery and Resilience (NPRR) while strengthening the objectives of cohesion and reduction of intra-EU unbalances is only possible by means of strategic, coordinated, and coherent policy planning. Therefore, the present research aims at assessing and quantifying the potential impact of NPRRs across the twenty-seven European Member States in terms of economic convergence, considering disaggregated data on industrial, construction, and service sectors. The first step of the research involves a performance analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators describing the trends of twenty-seven EU economies before the pandemic outbreak. Subsequently, in order to define the potential effect of the resources allocated, we perform an impact analysis of previous similar EU investment policies, estimating national-level sectoral elasticity associated with the expenditure of the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 Cohesion programmes funds. These coefficients are then exploited to construct adjustment scenarios. Finally, convergence analysis is performed on the data used for constructing scenarios in order to understand whether the expenditure of funds might be useful to foster economic convergence besides driving recovery. The results of our analysis show that the allocation of resources largely mirrors the aims of the policy framework underlying the NPRR, thus reporting the largest investments in both those sectors most affected by the economic shock (services) and those considered fundamental for the digital and green transition. Notwithstanding an overall positive effect, large differences exist among European countries, while no convergence process seems to be activated or fostered by these interventions.

Keywords: NPRR, policy evaluation, cohesion policy, scenario Nalsysi

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Authors: Nattapol Pourprasert

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This study has an objective to analyze foreign policy of member states in globalization current, aiming to answer that the foreign policy of member states have been changed or remained the same and there are any factors affecting changing of foreign policy of the member states. From the study results, it is found that the foreign policy of Thailand is a friendly foreign policy with all states. The policy of Indonesia is more opened because of a change in leader, allowing more democratic development in the country; the government has proceeded with friendly foreign policy with the states in order to bring funds into the state. The foreign policy of Malaysia is not much changed as there is no changing in the leader; the policy of Malaysia has reconciled relations with main city of Indian and Chinese residing in the country in order to bring investments into the country and to relieve tensions in the country. The foreign policy of the Philippines has proceeded with policy under the ASEAN framework and emphasized on international Islam communities. The foreign policy of Singapore has the least changed as the Singapore's policy focuses on internal trade since the state was found. As for the foreign policy of Brunei Darussalam, Brunei has a little role in the international stage; the state having closest relationship as from the view of history is Singapore as the Singaporean has invested in retailing business in Brunei. The foreign policy of Vietnam has emphasized on an omnidirectional foreign policy in order to compete with several states in global stage. The foreign policy of Myanmar has proceeded with a friendly foreign policy with all ASEAN member states, the East-west Corridor transportation line from Myanmar through Thailand and Lao to Vietnam has been developed. As for the foreign policy of Lao, In 2001, the Thai government and Lao government held a discussion which Thailand reaffirmed the position not to support the anti-Lao group. The foreign policy of Cambodia has proceeded with more openness, having good relation with China, Russia and USA as these states has invested in the state, especially the US company.

Keywords: globalization, public policy analysis, foreign policy, ASEAN member states

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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Authors: T. Vandeyar

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The purpose of this study is to explore how Government policy on ICT influences teaching and learning in South African schools. An instrumental case study using backward mapping principles as a strategy of inquiry was used. Utilizing a social constructivist lens and guided by a theoretical framework of a sociocultural approach to policy analysis, this exploratory qualitative research study set out to investigate how teachers appropriate government policy on ICT in South African schools. Three major findings emanated from this study. First, although teachers were ignorant of the national e-education policy their professionalism and agency were key in formulating and implementing an e-education policy in practice. Second, teachers repositioned themselves not as recipients or reactors of the e-education policy but as social and cultural actors of policy appropriation and formulation. Third, the lack of systemic support to teachers catalyzed improved school and teacher collaborations, teachers became drivers of ICT integration through collaboration, innovation, institutional practice and institutional leadership.

Keywords: ICT, teachers as change agents, practice as policy, teacher's beliefs, teacher's attitudes

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Authors: J. Kloypayan, W. Pimpakan

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The pipe taper thread measurement and uncertainty normally used the four-wire probe according to the JIS B 0262. Besides, according to the EA-10/10 standard, the pipe thread could be measured using the three-wire probe. This research proposed to use the three-wire probe measuring the pitch diameter of the pipe taper thread. The measuring accessory component was designed and made, then, assembled to one side of the ULM 828 CiM machine. Therefore, this machine could be used to measure and calibrate both the pipe thread and the pipe taper thread. The equations and the expanded uncertainty for pitch diameter measurement were formulated. After the experiment, the results showed that the pipe taper thread had the pitch diameter equal to 19.165 mm and the expanded uncertainty equal to 1.88µm. Then, the experiment results were compared to the results from the National Institute of Metrology Thailand. The equivalence ratio from the comparison showed that both results were related. Thus, the proposed method of using the three-wire probe measured the pitch diameter of the pipe taper thread was acceptable.

Keywords: pipe taper thread, three-wire probe, measure and calibration, the universal length measuring machine

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Authors: Vladimir A. Grachev

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Today, in the context of rapidly developing technosphere and hourly emerging new technologies, the industrial and environmental safety issue is ever more pressing. The article is devoted to the relationship of social, environmental, and industrial policies with industrial safety, occupational health and safety, environmental safety, and environmental protection. The author assesses the up-to-day situation through system analysis and on the basis of the existing practices. A complex system of the policies implementation without "gaps" and missing links ensures preservation of human lives, health and a favorable living environment. The author demonstrates that absence of an "environmental safety" high-priority link can lead to a significant loss of human lives and health and the global changes in the environment. The role of implementing the environmental policy of enterprises and organizations, and of economic sectors in the implementation of national environmental policy is shown. It was established that the system for implementing environmental policy should be based on a system analysis.

Keywords: environmental protection, environmental safety, industrial safety, occupational health and safety

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Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variables, statistics

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Authors: G. T. Aigarinova

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This article considers the legal issues of food security as a major component of national security of the republic. The problem of food security is the top priority of the economic policy strategy of any state, the effectiveness of this solution influences social, political, and ethnic stability in society. Food security and nutrition is everyone’s business. Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. By analyzing the existing legislation in the area of food security, the author identifies weaknesses and gaps, suggesting ways to improve it.

Keywords: food security, national security, agriculture, public resources, economic security

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Authors: Parisa Bagheri Tookanlou

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In this paper, we analyze a product line design problem faced by a manufacturing firm where the product line consists of a customized product in addition to a standard product and is offered in a market in which customers are heterogeneous on aesthetic attributes of the product. The customization level of a product is defined by the fraction of aesthetic attributes of the product that the manufacturer chooses to customize. In contrast to the existing literature on product line design that predominantly assumes deterministic demand, we consider the presence of demand uncertainty and frame the product line design problem in a single period (news vendor) setting. We examine the effect of demand uncertainty on product line decisions. Furthermore, we also examine how product line decisions are influenced by channel structure. While we use the centralized channel as a benchmark, we consider the decentralized dual channel where the customized product is sold through an online channel owned by the manufacturer and the standard product is sold through a retailer. We introduce a supply contract between the manufacturer and the retailer for improving channel efficiency and coordinate the distribution channel.

Keywords: product line design, demand uncertainty, customization level, distribution channel

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Osiris Jorge Parcero, Néstor Gandelman, Flavia Roldán, Josef Montag

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This paper uses cross-country unbalanced panel data of up to 146 countries over the period 1996 to 2015 to be the first study to identify potential determinants of a country’s relative research output in Economics versus Business. More generally, it is also one of the first studies comparing Economics and Business. The results show that better policy-related data availability, higher income inequality, and lower ethnic fractionalization relatively favor economics. The findings are robust to two alternative fixed effects specifications, three alternative definitions of economics and business, two alternative measures of research output (publications and citations), and the inclusion of meaningful control variables. To the best of our knowledge, our paper is also the first to demonstrate the importance of policy-related data as drivers of economic research. Our regressions show that the availability of this type of data is the single most important factor associated with the prevalence of economics over business as a research domain. Thus, our work has policy implications, as the availability of policy-related data is partially under policy control. Moreover, it has implications for students, professionals, universities, university departments, and research-funding agencies that face choices between profiles oriented toward economics and those oriented toward business. Finally, the conclusions show potential lines for further research.

Keywords: research output, publication performance, bibliometrics, economics, business, policy-related data

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Authors: Hanee Ryu

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The former president Lee Myung-bak's administration of Korea presented “green growth” as a catchphrase from 2008. He declared “low-carbon, green growth” the nation's vision for the next decade according to United Nation Framework on Climate Change. The government designed omnidirectional policy for low-carbon and green growth with concentrating all effort of departments. The structural change was expected because this slogan is the identity of the government, which is strongly driven with the whole department. After his administration ends, the purpose of this paper is to quantify the policy effect and to compare with the value of the other OECD countries. The major target values under direct policy objectives were suggested, but it could not capture the entire landscape on which the policy makes changes. This paper figures out the policy impacts through comparing the value of ex-ante between the one of ex-post. Furthermore, each index level of Korea’s low-carbon and green growth comparing with the value of the other OECD countries. To measure the policy effect, indicators international organizations have developed are considered. Environmental Sustainable Index (ESI) and Environmental Performance Index (EPI) have been developed by Yale University’s Center for Environmental Law and Policy and Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and Joint Research Center of European Commission. It has been widely used to assess the level of natural resource endowments, pollution level, environmental management efforts and society’s capacity to improve its environmental performance over time. Recently OCED publish the Green Growth Indicator for monitoring progress towards green growth based on internationally comparable data. They build up the conceptual framework and select indicators according to well specified criteria: economic activities, natural asset base, environmental dimension of quality of life and economic opportunities and policy response. It considers the socio-economic context and reflects the characteristic of growth. Some selected indicators are used for measuring the level of changes the green growth policies have induced in this paper. As results, the CO2 productivity and energy productivity show trends of declination. It means that policy intended industry structure shift for achieving carbon emission target affects weakly in the short-term. Increasing green technologies patents might result from the investment of previous period. The increasing of official development aids which can be immediately embarked by political decision with no time lag present only in 2008-2009. It means international collaboration and investment to developing countries via ODA has not succeeded since the initial stage of his administration. The green growth framework makes the public expect structural change, but it shows sporadic effect. It needs organization to manage it in terms of the long-range perspectives. Energy, climate change and green growth are not the issue to be handled in the one period of the administration. The policy mechanism to transfer cost problem to value creation should be developed consistently.

Keywords: comparing ex-ante between ex-post indicator, green growth indicator, implication for green growth policy, measuring policy effect

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Authors: Navid Mohammadzadeh, Huy Truong-Ba, Michael Cholette

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The solar tower (ST) plant is a promising technology to exploit large-scale solar irradiation. With thermal energy storage, ST plant has the potential to shift generation to high electricity price periods. However, the size of storage limits the dispatchability of the plant, particularly when it should compete with uncertainty in forecasts of solar irradiation and electricity prices. The purpose of this study is to explore the size of storage when Rolling Horizon Control (RHC) is employed for dispatch scheduling. To this end, RHC is benchmarked against perfect knowledge (PK) forecast and two day-ahead dispatching policies. With optimisation of dispatch planning using PK policy, the optimal achievable profit for a specific size of the storage is determined. A sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted, and the size of storage for RHC and day-ahead policies is determined with the objective of reaching the profit obtained from the PK policy. A case study is conducted for a hypothetical ST plant with thermal storage located in South Australia and intends to dispatch under two market scenarios: 1) fixed price and 2) wholesale spot price. The impact of each individual source of uncertainty on storage size is examined for January and August. The exploration of results shows that dispatching with RH controller reaches optimal achievable profit with ~15% smaller storage compared to that in day-ahead policies. The results of this study may be applied to the CSP plant design procedure.

Keywords: solar tower plant, spot market, thermal storage system, optimized dispatch planning, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Aurelia Samuel

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Socio-economic modelling approaches linked to water management have contributed to impact assessments of agricultural policies and management practices on water quality at catchment level. With an increasing interest in informing water management policy that considers complex links between socioeconomic factors, climate change, agricultural production, and water quality, several models have been developed and applied in the literature to capture these relationships. This paper offers an overview of socio-economic approaches that have been incorporated within an integrated framework. It also highlights how data gaps on socio-economic factors have been addressed using forecasting techniques. Findings of the review show that while integrated frameworks have the potential to account for complexities within dynamic systems, they generally do not provide direct, measurable financial impact of socio-economic factors on biophysical water parameters that affect water quality. The paper concludes with a recommendation that modelling framework is kept simple to make it more transparent and easier to capture the most important relationship.

Keywords: financial impact, integrated framework, socio-economic modelling, water quality

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Authors: Pedro G. Rodrigues, Maria J. Bárrios, Sara A. Ambrósio

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The digitalisation of health is a profoundly transformative economic, political, and social process. As is often the case, such processes need to be carefully managed if misunderstandings, policy misalignments, or outright conflicts between the government and a wide gamut of stakeholders with competing interests are to be avoided. Thus, ensuring open lines of communication where all parties know what each other’s concerns are is key to good governance, as well as efficient and effective policymaking. This project aims to make a small but still significant contribution in this regard in that we seek to determine the extent to which health managers’ perceptions of what is a priority for digital health in Portugal are aligned with official policy perspectives. By applying state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology first to the indexed literature on digital health and then to a set of official policy documents on the same topic, followed by a survey directed at health managers working in public and private hospitals in Portugal, we obtain two priority rankings that, when compared, will allow us to produce a synthesis and toolkit on digital health policy in Portugal, with a view to identifying areas of policy convergence and divergence. This project is also particularly peculiar in the sense that sophisticated digital methods related to text analytics are employed to study good governance aspects of digitalisation applied to health care.

Keywords: digital health, health informatics, text analytics, governance, natural language understanding

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Authors: Sunny Nwakanma

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The emergence of the new economy has created a new world order for skill acquisition, economic activities and employment. It has dramatically changed the way we live, learn, work and even think about work. It has also created new opportunities as well as challenges and uncertainty. This paper will not only demystify the new economy and present its instrumentality in the acceleration of skill acquisition in technical education, but will also highlight industrial and occupational changes brought about by the synergy between information and communication technology revolution and the global economic system. It advocates among other things, the use of information and communication technology mediated instruction in technical education as it provides the flexibility to meet diverse learners’ need anytime and anywhere and facilitate skill acquisition.

Keywords: new economy, technical education, skill acquisition, information and communication technology

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Authors: Mingzhu Lyu, Runlei Ren, Xinyu Dai, Jiaxuan Pi, Kanghua Li

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The study of video game policy in China has been divided into two branches: "pedagogy" and "game industry". The binary perspective of policy reveals the "contradictory" side of policy performance. Based on this suspicion, this paper constructs a three-dimensional sequence of time, content and institutions of game policy, and establishes the "contradictory" aspects of policy performance between 1949 and 2019. A central-level database of game policies, clarifying that our game policies follow a shift from reactive response to proactive guidance, stigmatization and de-stigmatization, the evolutionary logic. The study found that the central government has always maintained a strict requirement and prudent guidance for game policy, and the deep contradictions in game policy stem from the essential conflict between the natural amusement of games and the seriousness of the educational system, and the Chinese government's use of the understanding of the public and private domains and the Managing of the conflict.

Keywords: game industry, gaming policy, public domain, private domain

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Authors: Philippe Gugler

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This contribution reflects some important questions regarding inter alia the economic development occurring in the light of the ASEAN’s goal of creating the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. We observe a continuing economic growth of GDP per capita over recent years despite the negative effects of the world economic crisis. IMF forecasts indicate that this trend will continue. The paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of economic growth trends of ASEAN countries.

Keywords: ASEAN, convergence, divergence, economic growth, globalization, integration

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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The Indian diaspora in Thailand is as ethnically diverse as any other country. Although a relatively small community, the Indian diaspora has long established its roots, some with their fifth generation now living in Thailand. The community has a solid social and economic standing recognized by the host country but lacks connections with its ethnic roots in the home country. The biggest dilemma faced by the younger generation of the Indian diasporic community is the identity crisis. Regardless of being born and brought up in Thailand and possessing Thai citizenship, they do not get recognition as Thais by their Thai counterparts. However, with the Act Asia Policy of the Indian government, there has been an increase in social and political activities organized by old and new Indian associations, bringing new hopes of recognizing the Thai-Indian diasporic community.

Keywords: Indian, Thailand, diaspora, Act East Policy, Thai

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Authors: Hanadi Mubarak AL-Mubaraki, Michael Busler

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Innovation is the process of making changes, differences, and novelties in the products and services, adding values and business practices to create economic and social benefit. The purpose of this paper is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of innovation programs in developed and developing countries. We used a mixed-methods approach, quantitative as survey and qualitative as a multi-case study to examine innovation best practices in developed and developing countries. In addition, four case studies of innovation organisations based on the best practices and successful implementation in the developed and developing countries are selected for examination. The research findings provide guidance, suggestions, and recommendations for future implementation in developed and developing countries for practitioners such as policy makers, governments, funded organizations, and strategic institutions. In conclusion, innovation programs are vital tools for economic growth, knowledge, and technology transfer based on the several indicators such as creativity, entrepreneurship, role of government, role of university, strategic focus, new products, survival rate, job creation, start-up companies, and number of patents. The authors aim to conduct future research which will include a comparative study of innovation case studies between developed and developing countries for policy implications worldwide. The originality of this study makes a contribution to the current literature about the innovation best practice in developed and developing countries.

Keywords: economic development, entrepreneurship, innovation program, developed countries

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Authors: Athira Vinod

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Under the Right to Education Act (2009), the Indian government introduced an affirmative action policy aimed at the reservation of seats in private schools at the entry-level and free primary education for children from lower socio-economic backgrounds. Using exogenous variation in the status of being in a lower social category (disadvantaged groups) and the year of starting school, this study investigates the effect of exposure to the policy on the expenditure on private education. It employs a difference-in-difference strategy with the help of repeated cross-sectional household data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of India. It also exploits regional variation in exposure by combining the household data with administrative data on schools from the District Information System for Education (DISE). The study compares the outcome across two age cohorts of disadvantaged groups, starting school at different times, that is, before and after the policy. Regional variation in exposure is proxied with a measure of enrolment rate under the policy, calculated at the district level. The study finds that exposure to the policy led to an average reduction in annual private school fees of ₹223. Similarly, a 5% increase in the rate of enrolment under the policy in a district was associated with a reduction in annual private school fees of ₹240. Furthermore, there was a larger effect of the policy among households with a higher demand for private education. However, the effect is not due to fees waived through direct enrolment under the policy but rather an increase in the supply of low-fee private schools in India. The study finds that after the policy, 79,870 more private schools entered the market due to an increased demand for private education. The new schools, on average, charged a lower fee than existing schools and had a higher enrolment of children exposed to the policy. Additionally, the district-level variation in the enrolment under the policy was very strongly correlated with the entry of new schools, which not only charged a low fee but also had a higher enrolment under the policy. Results suggest that few disadvantaged children were admitted directly under the policy, but many were attending private schools, which were largely low-fee. This implies that disadvantaged households were willing to pay a lower fee to secure a place in a private school even if they did not receive a free place under the policy.

Keywords: affirmative action, disadvantaged groups, private schools, right to education act, school fees

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Authors: Teboho J. Mosikari, Johannes T. Tsoku, Diteboho L. Xaba

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The increase of capital mobility across emerging economies has become an interesting topic for many economic policy makers. The current study tests the validity of Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for 5 BRICS countries. The sample period of the study runs from 2001 to 2014. The study uses the following parameter estimates well known as the Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS). The results of the study show that investment and savings are cointegrated in the long run. The parameters estimated using FMOLS and DOLS are 0.85 and 0.74, respectively. These results imply that policy makers within BRICS countries have to consider flexible monetary and fiscal policy instruments to influence the mobility of capital with the bloc.

Keywords: Feldstein and Horioka puzzle, saving and investment, panel models, BRICS countries

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Authors: Medhin Haftom Hailu

Abstract:

The advancement of information technology has significantly impacted Ethiopia's economy, driving innovation, productivity, job creation, and global connectivity. This research examined the impact of contemporary information and communication technologies on Ethiopian economic progress. The study examined eight variables, including mobile, internet, and fixed-line penetration rates, and five macroeconomic control variables. The results showed a positive and strong effect of ICT on economic growth in Ethiopia, with 1% increase in mobile, internet, and fixed line services penetration indexes resulting in an 8.03, 10.05, and 30.06% increase in real GDP. The Granger causality test showed that all ICT variables Granger caused economic growth, but economic growth Granger caused mobile penetration rate only. The study suggests that coordinated ICT infrastructure development, increased telecom service accessibility, and increased competition in the telecom market are crucial for Ethiopia's economic growth. Ethiopia is attempting to establish a digital economy through massive investment in ensuring ICT quality and accessibility. Thus, the research could enhance in understanding of the economic impact of ICT expansion for successful ICT policy interventions for future research.

Keywords: economic growth, cointegration and error correction, ICT expansion, granger causality, penetration

Procedia PDF Downloads 69