Search results for: coverage probability

Authors: Nayara Torres B. Acioli, José Fernando T. Jucá

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The uncontrolled emission of gases in urban residues' embankment located near urban areas is a social and environmental problem, common in Brazilian cities. Several environmental impacts in the local and global scope may be generated by atmospheric air contamination by the biogas resulted from the decomposition of solid urban materials. In Brazil, the cities of small size figure mostly with 90% of all cities, with the population smaller than 50,000 inhabitants, according to the 2011 IBGE' census, most of the landfill covering layer is composed of clayey, pure soil. The embankments undertaken with pure soil may reach up to 60% of retention of methane, for the other 40% it may be dispersed into the atmosphere. In face of this figures the oxidative covering layer is granted some space of study, envisaging to reduce this perceptual available in the atmosphere, releasing, in spite of methane, carbonic gas which is almost 20 times as less polluting than Methane. This paper exposes the results of studies on the characteristics of the soil used for the oxidative coverage layer of the experimental embankment of Solid Urban Residues (SUR), built in Muribeca-PE, Brazil, supported of the Group of Solid Residues (GSR), located at Federal University of Pernambuco, through laboratory vacuum experiments (determining the characteristics curve), granularity, and permeability, that in soil with saturation over 85% offers dramatic drops in the test of permeability to the air, by little increments of water, based in the existing Brazilian norm for this procedure. The suction was studied, as in the other tests, from the division of prospection of an oxidative coverage layer of 60cm, in the upper half (0.1 m to 0.3 m) and lower half (0.4 m to 0.6 m). Therefore, the consequences to be presented from the lixiviation of the fine materials after 5 years of finalization of the embankment, what made its permeability increase. Concerning its humidity, it is most retained in the upper part, that comprises the compound, with a difference in the order of 8 percent the superior half to inferior half, retaining the least suction from the surface. These results reveal the efficiency of the oxidative coverage layer in retaining the rain water, it has a lower cost when compared to the other types of layer, offering larger availability of this layer as an alternative for a solution for the appropriate disposal of residues.

Keywords: oxidative coverage layer, permeability, suction, saturation

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Authors: Fakhreddin Abedi, Wah June Leong

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Exponential stability of stochastic differential equations with non trivial solutions is provided in terms of Lyapunov functions. The main result of this paper establishes that, under certain hypotheses for the dynamics f(.) and g(.), practical exponential stability in probability at the small neighborhood of the origin is equivalent to the existence of an appropriate Lyapunov function. Indeed, we establish exponential stability of stochastic differential equation when almost all the state trajectories are bounded and approach a sufficiently small neighborhood of the origin. We derive sufficient conditions for exponential stability of stochastic differential equations. Finally, we give a numerical example illustrating our results.

Keywords: exponential stability in probability, stochastic differential equations, Lyapunov technique, Ito's formula

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The outdoor design weather data are usually comprised of multiple meteorological elements for a 24-hour period separately, but the dependency between the elements is not well considered, which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Considering the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, we used the copula approach to model the joint distributions of those two weather elements and suggest a new method of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of air temperature and global solar radiation. In this paper, the 10-year period hourly weather data from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan, was used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the result shows that the Joe-Frank copula fit for almost all hourly data. According to calculating the simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding probability of air temperature and global solar radiation, the results have shown that the maximum difference in design air temperature and global solar radiation of the day is about 2 degrees Celsius and 30W/m2, respectively.

Keywords: energy conservation, design weather database, HVAC, copula approach

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Authors: Peregrine James Dalziel, Philip Vu Tran

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Objective / Introduction: Demand for radiology services from Emergency Departments (ED) continues to increase with greater demands placed on radiology staff providing reports for the management of complex cases. Queuing theory indicates that wide variability of process time with the random nature of request arrival increases the probability of significant queues. This can lead to delays in the time-to-availability of radiology reports (TTA-RR) and potentially impaired ED patient flow. In addition, greater “cognitive workload” of greater volume may lead to reduced productivity and increased errors. We sought to quantify the potential ED flow improvements obtainable from increased radiology providers serving 3 public hospitals in Melbourne Australia. We sought to assess the potential productivity gains, quality improvement and the cost-effectiveness of increased labor inputs. Methods & Materials: The Western Health Medical Imaging Department moved from single resident coverage on weekend days 8:30 am-10:30 pm to a limited period of 2 resident coverage 1 pm-6 pm on both weekend days. The TTA-RR for weekend CT scans was calculated from the PACs database for the 8 month period symmetrically around the date of staffing change. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to isolate the improvement in TTA-RR, between the two 4-months periods. Daily and hourly scan volume at the time of each CT scan was calculated to assess the impact of varying department workload. To assess any improvement in report quality/errors a random sample of 200 studies was assessed to compare the average number of clinically significant over-read addendums to reports between the 2 periods. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by comparing the marginal cost of additional staffing against a conservative estimate of the economic benefit of improved ED patient throughput using the Australian national insurance rebate for private ED attendance as a revenue proxy. Results: The primary resident on call and the type of scan accounted for most of the explained variability in time to report availability (R2=0.29). Increasing daily volume and hourly volume was associated with increased TTA-RR (1.5m (p<0.01) and 4.8m (p<0.01) respectively per additional scan ordered within each time frame. Reports were available 25.9 minutes sooner on average in the 4 months post-implementation of double coverage (p<0.01) with additional 23.6 minutes improvement when 2 residents were on-site concomitantly (p<0.01). The aggregate average improvement in TTA-RR was 24.8 hours per weekend day This represents the increased decision-making time available to ED physicians and potential improvement in ED bed utilisation. 5% of reports from the intervention period contained clinically significant addendums vs 7% in the single resident period but this was not statistically significant (p=0.7). The marginal cost was less than the anticipated economic benefit based assuming a 50% capture of improved TTA-RR inpatient disposition and using the lowest available national insurance rebate as a proxy for economic benefit. Conclusion: TTA-RR improved significantly during the period of increased staff availability, both during the specific period of increased staffing and throughout the day. Increased labor utilisation is cost-effective compared with the potential improved productivity for ED cases requiring CT imaging.

Keywords: workflow, quality, administration, CT, staffing

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Authors: Surinder Pal Singh, Sanjay Goel

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The paper presents results of an investigation conducted to study the flexural fatigue characteristics of Self Compacting Concrete (SCC) and Self Compacting Fibre Reinforced Concrete (SCFRC). In total 360 flexural fatigue tests and 270 static flexural strength tests were conducted on SCC and SCFRC specimens to obtain the fatigue test data. The variability in the distribution of fatigue life of SCC and SCFRC have been analyzed and compared with that of NVC and NVFRC containing steel fibres of comparable size and shape. The experimental coefficients of fatigue equations have been estimated to represent relationship between stress level (S) and fatigue life (N) for SCC and SCFRC containing different fibre volume fractions. The probability of failure (Pf) has been incorporated in S-N relationships to obtain families of S-N-Pf relationships. A good agreement between the predicted curves and those obtained from the test data has been observed. The fatigue performance of SCC and SCFRC has been evaluated in terms of two-million cycles fatigue strength/endurance limit. The theoretic fatigue lives were also estimated using single-log fatigue equation for 10% probability of failure to estimate the enhanced extent of theoretic fatigue lives of SCFRC with reference to SCC and NVC. The reduction in variability in the fatigue life, increased endurance limit and increased theoretiac fatigue lives demonstrates an overall better fatigue performance for SCC and SCFRC.

Keywords: fatigue life, fibre, probability of failure, self-compacting concrete

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Authors: Natalie A. Sterk, Bernard van Vuuren, Petrie Marais, Bongani Mthombeni

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Injuries to the internal structures of the thorax and abdomen remain a leading cause of death among soldiers. Body armour is a standard issue piece of military equipment designed to protect the vital organs against ballistic and stab threats. When configured for maximum protection, the excessive weight and size of the armour may limit soldier mobility and increase physical fatigue and discomfort. Providing soldiers with more armour than necessary may, therefore, hinder their ability to react rapidly in life-threatening situations. The capability to determine the optimal trade-off between the amount of essential anatomical coverage and hindrance on soldier performance may significantly enhance the design of armour systems. The current study aimed to develop and pilot a methodology for relating internal anatomical structures with actual armour plate coverage in real-time using low-dose diagnostic X-ray scanning. Several pilot scanning sessions were held at Lodox Systems (Pty) Ltd head-office in South Africa. Testing involved using the Lodox eXero-dr to scan dummy trunk rigs at various degrees and heights of measurement; as well as human participants, wearing correctly fitted body armour while positioned in supine, prone shooting, seated and kneeling shooting postures. The verification of sizing and metrics obtained from the Lodox eXero-dr were then confirmed through a verification board with known dimensions. Results indicated that the low-dose diagnostic X-ray has the capability to clearly identify the vital internal structures of the aortic arch, heart, and lungs in relation to the position of the external armour plates. Further testing is still required in order to fully and accurately identify the inferior liver boundary, inferior vena cava, and spleen. The scans produced in the supine, prone, and seated postures provided superior image quality over the kneeling posture. The X-ray-source and-detector distance from the object must be standardised to control for possible magnification changes and for comparison purposes. To account for this, specific scanning heights and angles were identified to allow for parallel scanning of relevant areas. The low-dose diagnostic X-ray provides a non-invasive, safe, and rapid technique for relating vital internal structures with external structures. This capability can be used for the re-evaluation of anatomical coverage required for essential protection while optimising armour design and fit for soldier performance.

Keywords: body armour, low-dose diagnostic X-ray, scanning, vital organ coverage

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Authors: Natsuki Tsuda, Kiyotaka Obunai, Kazuya Okubo, Hideyuki Tashiro, Yoshinori Yamaji, Hideyuki Kato

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The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of belt stiffness on the performance of the CVT unit, such as the required pulley thrust force and the ratio coverage. The CVT unit consists of the V-grooved pulleys and the rubber CVT belt. The width of the driving pulley groove was controlled by the stepper motor, while that of the driven pulley was controlled by the hydraulic pressure. The generated mechanical power on the motor was transmitted from the driving axis to the driven axis through the CVT unit. The rotational speed and the transmitting torque of both axes were measured by the tachometers and the torque meters attached with these axes, respectively. The transmitted, mechanical power was absorbed by the magnetic powder brake. The thrust force acting on both pulleys and the force between both shafts were measured by the load cell. The back face profile of the rubber CVT belt along with width direction was measured by the 2-dimensional laser displacement meter. This paper found that when the stiffness of the rubber CVT belt in the belt width direction was reduced, the thrust force required for shifting was reduced. Moreover, when the stiffness of the rubber CVT belt in the belt width direction was reduced, the ratio coverage of the CVT unit was reduced. Due to the decrement of stiffness in belt width direction, the excessive concave deformation of belt in pulley groove was confirmed. Because of this excessive concave deformation, apparent wrapping radius of belt would have been reduced. Proposed model could be effectively estimated the difference of ratio coverage due to concave deformation. The proposed model could also be utilized for designing the rubber CVT belt with optimal bending stiffness in width direction.

Keywords: CVT, countinuously variable transmission, rubber, belt stiffness, transmission

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Authors: Sakulsri Srisaracam

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Social media has become an important source of information for the public and the media profession. Some social issues raised on social media are picked up by journalists to report on other platforms. This relationship between social media and mainstream media can sometimes drive public debate or stimulate social movements. The question to examine is in what situations can social media conversations raise awareness and stimulate change on public issues. This study addresses the communication patterns of social media conversations driving covert issues into mainstream media and leading to social advocacy movements. In methodological terms, the study findings are based on a content analysis of Facebook, Twitter, news websites and television media reports on three different case studies – saving Bryde’s whale, protests against a government proposal to downsize the Office of Knowledge Management and Development in Thailand, and a dengue fever campaign. These case studies were chosen because they represent issues that most members of the public do not pay much attention to but social media conversations stimulated public debate and calls to action. This study found: 1) Collective social media conversations can stimulate public debate and encourage change at three levels – awareness, public debate, and action of policy and social change. The level depends on the communication patterns of online users and media coverage. 2) Patterns of communication have to be designed to combine social media conversations, online opinion leaders, mainstream media coverage and call to both online and offline action to motivate social change. Thus, this result suggests that social media is a powerful platform for collective communication and setting the agenda on public issues for mainstream media. However, for social change to succeed, social media should be used to mobilize online movements to move offline too.

Keywords: public issues, mainstream media, social media, social movement

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

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Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: wind fragility, glass window, high rise building, wind disaster

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Authors: Punnoose A. K.

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This paper presents an approach for identifying noisy speech recording using a multi-layer perception (MLP) trained to predict phonemes from acoustic features. Characteristics of the MLP posteriors are explored for clean speech and noisy speech at the frame level. Appropriate density functions are used to fit the softmax probability of the clean and noisy speech. A function that takes into account the ratio of the softmax probability density of noisy speech to clean speech is formulated. These phoneme independent scoring is weighted using a phoneme-specific weightage to make the scoring more robust. Simple thresholding is used to identify the noisy speech recording from the clean speech recordings. The approach is benchmarked on standard databases, with a focus on precision.

Keywords: noisy speech identification, speech pre-processing, noise robustness, feature engineering

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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This paper propose the method for optimal scheduling for battery energy storage system with reliability constraint of energy storage system in reliability aspect. The optimal scheduling problem is solved by dynamic programming with proposed transition matrix. Proposed optimal scheduling method guarantees the minimum fuel cost within specific reliability constraint. For evaluating proposed method, the timely capacity outage probability table (COPT) is used that is calculated by convolution of probability mass function of each generator. This study shows the result of optimal schedule of energy storage system.

Keywords: energy storage system (ESS), optimal scheduling, dynamic programming, reliability constraints

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Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

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Authors: Samuel Ato Dadzie

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The objective of this study is to examine the influence of eclectic paradigm on motivational strategy of foreign subsidiaries in Ghana. This study uses binary regression model, and the analysis was based on 75 manufacturing investments made by MNEs from different countries in 1994–2008. The results indicated that perceived market size increases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) in Ghana, while perceived cultural distance between Ghana and foreign firm’s home countries decreased the probability of foreign firms undertaking an market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Furthermore, extensive international experience decreases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Most of the studies done by earlier researchers were based on the advanced and emerging countries and offered support for the theory, which was used in generalizing the result that multinational corporations (MNCs) normally used the theory regarding investment strategy outside their home country. In using the same theory in the context of Ghana, the result does not offer strong support for the theory. This means that MNCs that come to Sub-Sahara Africa cannot rely much on eclectic paradigm for their motivational strategies because prevailing economic conditions in Ghana are different from that of the advanced and emerging economies where the institutional structures work.

Keywords: foreign subsidiary, motives, Ghana, foreign direct investment

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Authors: Janya Sainui

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As a rapid growth of digital videos and data communications, video summarization that provides a shorter version of the video for fast video browsing and retrieval is necessary. Key frame extraction is one of the mechanisms to generate video summary. In general, the extracted key frames should both represent the entire video content and contain minimum redundancy. However, most of the existing approaches heuristically select key frames; hence, the selected key frames may not be the most different frames and/or not cover the entire content of a video. In this paper, we propose a method of video summarization which provides the reasonable objective functions for selecting key frames. In particular, we apply a statistical dependency measure called quadratic mutual informaion as our objective functions for maximizing the coverage of the entire video content as well as minimizing the redundancy among selected key frames. The proposed key frame extraction algorithm finds key frames as an optimization problem. Through experiments, we demonstrate the success of the proposed video summarization approach that produces video summary with better coverage of the entire video content while less redundancy among key frames comparing to the state-of-the-art approaches.

Keywords: video summarization, key frame extraction, dependency measure, quadratic mutual information

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Authors: Ali Mustafa Elshawesh, Mohamed Abdulali

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The paper presents an approach to dimension circuit switched networks and find the relationship between the parameters of the circuit switched networks on the condition of specific probability of call blocking. Our work is creating a Simulation code based on Erlang (B) formula to draw graphs which show two curves for each graph; one of simulation and the other of calculated. These curves represent the relationships between average number of calls and average call duration with the probability of call blocking. This simulation code facilitates to select the appropriate parameters for circuit switched networks.

Keywords: Erlang B formula, call blocking, telephone system dimension, Markov model, link capacity

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Background: Ensuring patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) access to hospitals that could perform percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in time is an important concern of healthcare managers. One commonly used the method to assess the coverage of population access to PCI hospital is the use GIS-estimated linear distance (crow's fly distance) between the district centroid and the nearest PCI hospital. If the distance is within a given distance (such as 20 km), the entire population of that district is considered to have appropriate access to PCI. The premise of using district centroid to estimate the coverage of population resident in that district is that the people live in the district are evenly distributed. In reality, the population density is not evenly distributed within the administrative district, especially in rural districts. Fortunately, the Taiwan government released basic statistical area (on average 450 population within the area) recently, which provide us an opportunity to estimate the coverage of population access to PCI services more accurate. Objectives: We aimed in this study to compare the population covered by a give PCI hospital according to traditional administrative district versus basic statistical area. We further examined if the differences between two geographic units used would be larger in a rural area than in urban area. Method: We selected two hospitals in Tainan City for this analysis. Hospital A is in urban area, hospital B is in rural area. The population in each traditional administrative district and basic statistical area are obtained from Taiwan National Geographic Information System, Ministry of Internal Affairs. Results: Estimated population live within 20 km of hospital A and B was 1,515,846 and 323,472 according to traditional administrative district and was 1,506,325 and 428,556 according to basic statistical area. Conclusion: In urban area, the estimated access population to PCI services was similar between two geographic units. However, in rural areas, the access population would be overestimated.

Keywords: accessibility, basic statistical area, modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)

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Authors: Vahid Bairami Rad

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Wireless communications offer organizations and users many benefits such as portability and flexibility, increased productivity, and lower installation costs. Wireless networks serve as the transport mechanism between devices and among devices and the traditional wired networks (enterprise networks and the internet). Wireless networks are many and diverse but are frequently categorized into three groups based on their coverage range: WWAN, WLAN, and WPAN. WWAN, representing wireless wide area networks, includes wide coverage area technologies such as 2G cellular, Cellular Digital Packet Data (CDPD), Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM), and Mobitex. WLAN, representing wireless local area networks, includes 802.11, Hyper lan, and several others. WPAN, represents wireless personal area network technologies such as Bluetooth and Infrared. The security services are provided largely by the WEP (Wired Equivalent Privacy) protocol to protect link-level data during wireless transmission between clients and access points. That is, WEP does not provide end-to-end security but only for the wireless portion of the connection.

Keywords: wireless lan, wired equivalent privacy, wireless network security, wlan security

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Parjapati, Ajai Jain

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This paper presents optimization of makespan for ‘n’ jobs and ‘m’ machines flexible job shop scheduling problem with sequence dependent setup time using genetic algorithm (GA) approach. A restart scheme has also been applied to prevent the premature convergence. Two case studies are taken into consideration. Results are obtained by considering crossover probability (pc = 0.85) and mutation probability (pm = 0.15). Five simulation runs for each case study are taken and minimum value among them is taken as optimal makespan. Results indicate that optimal makespan can be achieved with more than one sequence of jobs in a production order.

Keywords: flexible job shop, genetic algorithm, makespan, sequence dependent setup times

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Authors: Anantha S. Babbili

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This paper analyzes the current media practices dominant in global journalistic practices within the framework of world press theories of Libertarian, Authoritarian, Communist, and Social Responsibility to evaluate their efficacy in addressing their role in the coverage of the coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. The global media flows, determinants of news coverage, and international awareness and the Western view of the world will be critically analyzed within the context of the prevalent news values that underpin free press and media coverage of the world. While evaluating the global discourse paramount to a sustained and dispassionate understanding of world events, this paper proposes an ethical framework that brings clarity devoid of sensationalism, partisanship, right-wing and left-wing interpretations to a breaking and dangerous development of a pandemic. As the world struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic with death climbing close to 6,000 from late January to mid-March, 2020, the populations of the developed as well as the developing nations are beset with news media renditions of the crisis that are contradictory, confusing and evoking anxiety, fear and hysteria. How are we to understand differing news standards and news values? What lessons do we as journalism and mass media educators, researchers, and academics learn in order to construct a better news model and structure of media practice that addresses science, health, and media literacy among media practitioners, journalists, and news consumers? As traditional media struggles to cover the pandemic to its audience and consumers, social media from which an increasing number of consumers get their news have exerted their influence both in a positive way and in a negative manner. Even as the world struggles to grasp the full significance of the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been feverishly battling an additional challenge related to the pandemic in what it termed an 'infodemic'—'an overabundance of information, some accurate and some not, that makes it hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it.' There is, indeed, a need for journalism and news coverage in times of pandemics that reflect social responsibility and ethos of public service journalism. Social media and high-tech information corporations, collectively termed GAMAF—Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook – can team up with reliable traditional media—newspapers, magazines, book publishers, radio and television corporates—to ease public emotions and be helpful in times of a pandemic outbreak. GAMAF can, conceivably, weed out sensational and non-credible sources of coronavirus information, exotic cures offered for sale on a quick fix, and demonetize videos that exploit peoples’ vulnerabilities at the lowest ebb. Credible news of utility delivered in a sustained, calm, and reliable manner serves people in a meaningful and helpful way. The world’s consumers of news and information, indeed, deserve a healthy and trustworthy news media – at least in the time of pandemic COVID-19. Towards this end, the paper will propose a practical model for news media and journalistic coverage during times of a pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, international news flow, social media, social responsibility

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Nattabhorn Leamcharaskul

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This study aims to examine determining factors of the dynamics of poverty in Thailand by using panel data of 3,567 households in 2007-2017. Four techniques of estimation are employed to analyze the situation of poverty across households and time periods: the multinomial logit model, the sequential logit model, the quantile regression model, and the difference in difference model. Households are categorized based on their experiences into 5 groups, namely chronically poor, falling into poverty, re-entering into poverty, exiting from poverty and never poor households. Estimation results emphasize the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as unexpected events on the economic status of a household. It is found that remittances have positive impact on household’s economic status in that they are likely to lower the probability of falling into poverty or trapping in poverty while they tend to increase the probability of exiting from poverty. In addition, not only receiving a secondary source of household income can raise the probability of being a never poor household, but it also significantly increases household income per capita of the chronically poor and falling into poverty households. Public work programs are recommended as an important tool to relieve household financial burden and uncertainty and thus consequently increase a chance for households to escape from poverty.

Keywords: difference in difference, dynamic, multinomial logit model, panel data, poverty, quantile regression, remittance, sequential logit model, Thailand, transfer

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Authors: Peristera Baziana

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In this paper, we present a network configuration for a WDM LANs of passive star topology that assume that the set of data WDM channels is split into two separate sets of channels, with different access rights over them. Especially, a synchronous transmission WDMA access algorithm is adopted in order to increase the probability of successful transmission over the data channels and consequently to reduce the probability of data packets transmission cancellation in order to avoid the data channels collisions. Thus, a control pre-transmission access scheme is followed over a separate control channel. An analytical Markovian model is studied and the average throughput is mathematically derived. The performance is studied for several numbers of data channels and various values of control phase duration.

Keywords: access algorithm, channels division, collisions avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing

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Authors: Temenuzhka Spasova, Nadya Yanakieva

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Snow modulates the hydrological cycle and influences the functioning of ecosystems and is a significant resource for many populations whose water is harvested from cold regions. Snow observations are important for validating climate models. The accumulation and rapid melt of snow are two of the most dynamical seasonal environmental changes on the Earth’s surface. The actuality of this research is related to the modern tendencies of the remote sensing application in the solution of problems of different nature in the ecological monitoring of the environment. The subject of the study is the dynamic during the different seasons on Livingstone Island, South Shetland Islands in Antarctica and on Svalbard in Arctic. The objects were analyzed and mapped according to the Еuropean Space Agency data (ESA), acquired by sensors Sentinel-1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), Sentinel 2 MSI and GIS. Results have been obtained for changes in snow coverage during the summer-winter transition and its dynamics in the two hemispheres. The data used is of high time-spatial resolution, which is an advantage when looking at the snow cover. The MSI images are with different spatial resolution at the Earth surface range. The changes of the environmental objects are shown with the SAR images and different processing approaches. The results clearly show that snow and snow melting can be best registered by using SAR data via hh- horizontal polarization. The effect of the researcher on aerospace data and technology enables us to obtain different digital models, structuring and analyzing results excluding the subjective factor. Because of the large extent of terrestrial snow coverage and the difficulties in obtaining ground measurements over cold regions, remote sensing and GIS represent an important tool for studying snow areas and properties from regional to global scales.

Keywords: climate changes, GIS, remote sensing, SAR images, snow coverage

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Authors: Samuel O. Oduyela

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Over the last ten years, many studies have examined the media coverage of terrorism across the world. Nevertheless, most of these studies have been inclined to the western narrative, more so in relation to the international media. This study departs from that partiality to explore the Nigerian press and its coverage of the Boko Haram. The study intends to illustrate how the Nigerian press has reported its homegrown terrorism within its borders. On 14 April 2014, the Shekau-led Boko Haram kidnapped over 200 female students from Chibok in the Borno State. This study analyses a structured sample of news stories, feature articles, editorial comments, and opinions from the Nation newspaper. The study examined the representation of the Chibok girls kidnaps by concentrating on four main viewpoints. The news framing of the Chibok girls’ kidnap under Presidents Goodluck Jonathan (2014) and Mohammadu Buhari (2016-2018), the sourcing model present in the news reporting of the kidnap and the challenges Nation reporters face in reporting Boko Haram. The study adopted the use of qualitative news framing analysis to provide further insights into significant developments established from the examination of news contents. The study found that the news reportage mainly focused on the government response to Chibok girls kidnap, international press and Boko Haram. Boko Haram was also framed, as a political conspiracy, as prevailing, and as instilling fear. Political, and economic influence appeared to be a significant determinant of the reportage. The study found that the Nation newspaper's portrayal of the crisis under President Jonathan differed significantly from under President Buhari. While the newspaper framed the action of President Jonathan as lacklustre, dismissive, and confusing, it was less critical of President Buhari's government's handling of the crisis. The Nation newspaper failed to promote or explore non-violent approaches. News reports of the kidnap, thus, were presented mainly from a political and ethnoreligious perspective. The study also raised questions of what roles should journalists play in covering conflicts? Should they merely report comments on and interpret it, or should they be actors in the resolution or, more importantly, the prevention of conflicts? The study underlined the need for the independence of the media, more training for journalists to advance a more nuanced and conflict-sensitive news coverage in the Nigerian context.

Keywords: boko haram, chibok girls kidnap, conflict in nigeria, media framing

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Authors: Miriam I. Lautenschläger, Max H. Scheiwe, Kay A. Weidenmann, Frank Henning, Peter Elsner

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Due to increasing environmental awareness jute fibers are more often used in fiber reinforced composites. In the Sheet Molding Compound (SMC) process, the mold cavity is filled via material flow allowing more complex component design. But, the difficulty of using jute fibers in this process is the decreased capacity of fiber movement in the mold. A comparative flow study with jute nonwoven reinforced SMC was conducted examining the influence of the fiber volume content, the grammage of the jute nonwoven textile and a mechanical modification of the nonwoven textile on the flowability. The nonwoven textile reinforcement was selected to support homogeneous fiber distribution. Trials were performed using two SMC paste formulations differing only in filler type. Platy-shaped kaolin with a mean particle size of 0.8 μm and ashlar calcium carbonate with a mean particle size of 2.7 μm were selected as fillers. Ensuring comparability of the two SMC paste formulations the filler content was determined to reach equal initial viscosity for both systems. The calcium carbonate filled paste was set as reference. The flow study was conducted using a jute nonwoven textile with 300 g/m² as reference. The manufactured SMC sheets were stacked and centrally placed in a square mold. The mold coverage was varied between 25 and 90% keeping the weight of the stack for comparison constant. Comparing the influence of the two fillers kaolin yielded better results regarding a homogeneous fiber distribution. A mold coverage of about 68% was already sufficient to homogeneously fill the mold cavity whereas for calcium carbonate filled system about 79% mold coverage was necessary. The flow study revealed a strong influence of the fiber volume content on the flowability. A fiber volume content of 12 vol.-% and 25 vol.-% were compared for both SMC formulations. The lower fiber volume content strongly supported fiber transport whereas 25 vol.-% showed insignificant influence. The results indicate a limiting fiber volume content for the flowability. The influence of the nonwoven textile grammage was determined using nonwoven jute material with 500 g/m² and a fiber volume content of 20 vol.-%. The 500 g/m² reinforcement material showed inferior results with regard to fiber movement. A mold coverage of about 90 % was required to prevent the destruction of the nonwoven structure. Below this mold coverage the 500 g/m² nonwoven material was ripped and torn apart. Low mold coverages led to damage of the textile reinforcement. Due to the ripped nonwoven structure the textile was modified with cuts in order to facilitate fiber movement in the mold. Parallel cuts of about 20 mm length and 20 mm distance to each other were applied to the textile and stacked with varying orientations prior to molding. Stacks with unidirectional orientated cuts over stacks with cuts in various directions e.g. (0°, 45°, 90°, -45°) were investigated. The mechanical modification supported tearing of the textile without achieving benefit for the flowability.

Keywords: filler, flowability, jute fiber, nonwoven, sheet molding compound

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Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

Abstract:

A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

Abstract:

Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

Abstract:

For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Kavita Bodke

Abstract:

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is experiencing growth, necessitating the development of distinct methodologies to address its expanding scope effectively. In this study, we developed automatic structure damage identification, which incorporates three unique types of a building’s structural integrity. The first pertains to the presence of fractures within the structure, the second relates to the issue of dampness within the structure, and the third involves corrosion inside the structure. This study employs image classification techniques to discern between intact and impaired structures within structural data. The aim of this research is to find automatic damage detection with the probability of each damage class being present in one image. Based on this probability, we know which class has a higher probability or is more affected than the other classes. Utilizing photographs captured by a mobile camera serves as the input for an image classification system. Image classification was employed in our study to perform multi-class and multi-label classification. The objective was to categorize structural data based on the presence of cracks, moisture, and corrosion. In the context of multi-class image classification, our study employed three distinct methodologies: Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and CNN. For the task of multi-label image classification, the models employed were Rasnet, Xceptionet, and Inception.

Keywords: SHM, CNN, deep learning, multi-class classification, multi-label classification

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Authors: Dolly Kumari, H. Lhungdim

Abstract:

Maternal health is one of the crucial health indicators for any country. 5th goal of Millennium Development Goals is also emphasising on improvement of maternal health. Soon after Independence government of India realizing the importance of maternal and child health care services, and took steps to strengthen in 1st and 2nd five year plans. In past decade the other health indicator which is life expectancy at birth has been observed remarkable improvement. But still maternal mortality is high in India and in some states it is observe much higher than national average. Government of India pour lots of fund and initiate National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to improve maternal health in country by providing affordable and accessible health care services. Accredited Social Heath Activist (ASHA) is one of the key components of the NRHM. Mainly ASHAs are selected female aged 25-45 years from village itself and accountable for the monitoring of maternal health care for the same village. ASHA are trained to works as an interface between the community and public health system. This study tries to assess the role of ASHA in utilizing maternal health care services and to see the level of awareness about benefits given under JSY scheme and utilization of those benefits by eligible women. For the study concurrent evaluation data from National Rural health Mission (NRHM), initiated by government of India in 2005 has been used. This study is based on 78205 currently married women from 70 different districts of India. Descriptive statistics, chi2 test and binary logistic regression have been used for analysis. The probability of institutional delivery increases by 2.03 times (p<0.001) while if ASHA arranged or helped in arranging transport facility the probability of institutional delivery is increased by 1.67 times (p<0.01) than if she is not arranging transport facility. Further if ASHA facilitated to get JSY card to the pregnant women probability of going for full ANC is increases by 1.36 times (p<0.05) than reference. However if ASHA discuses about institutional delivery and approaches to get register than probability of getting TT injection is 1.88 and 1.64 times (p<0.01) higher than that if she did not discus. Further, Probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 years. The probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 year of age than before 18 years, it is also 1.28 times (p<0.001) and 1.32 times (p<0.001) higher among women have 1 to 8 year of schooling and with 9 and above years of schooling respectively than the women who never attended school. Those women who are working have 1.13 times (p<0.001) higher probability of getting benefits from JSY scheme than not working women. Surprisingly women belongs to wealthiest quintile are .53times (P<0.001) less aware about JSY scheme. Results conclude that work done by ASHA has great influence on maternal health care utilization in India. But results also show that still substantial numbers of needed population are far from utilization of these services. Place of delivery is significantly influenced by referral and transport facility arranged by ASHA.

Keywords: institutional delivery, JSY beneficiaries, referral faculty, public health

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