Search results for: SIS (Susceptible Infective Susceptible) model

Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: Khalid Alhudaib

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Potato is considered as one of the most important and potential vegetable crops in Saudi Arabia. Alfalfa mosaic virus (AMV), genus Alfamovirus, family Bromoviridae is among the broad spread of viruses in potato. During spring and fall growing seasons of potato in 2015 and 2016, several field visits were conducted in the four major growing areas of potato cultivation (Riyadh-Qaseem-Hail-Hard). The presence of AMV was detected in samples using ELISA, dot blot hybridization and/or RT-PCR. The highest occurrence of AMV was observed as 18.6% in Qaseem followed by Riyadh with 15.2% while; the lowest infection rates were recorded in Hard and Hail, 8.3 and 10.4%, respectively. The sequences of seven isolates of AMV obtained in this study were determined and the sequences were aligned with the other sequences available in the GenBank database. Analyses confirmed the low variability among AMV isolated in this study, which means that all AMV isolates may originate from the same source. Due to high incidence of AMV, other economic susceptible crops may become affected by high incidence of this virus in potato crops. This requires accurate examination of potato seed tubers to prevent the spread of the virus in Saudi Arabia. The obtained results indicated that the hybridization and ELISA are suitable techniques in the routine detection of AMV in a large number of samples while RT-PCR is more sensitive and essential for molecular characterization of AMV.

Keywords: Alfamovirus, AMV, Alfalfa mosaic virus, PCR, potato

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Authors: K. R. Thabethe, G. A. Adefolaju, M. J. Hosie

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Cervical cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer globally and it is one of three AIDS defining malignancies. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is a combination of three or more antiretroviral drugs and has been shown to play a significant role in reducing the incidence of some AIDS defining malignancies, although its effect on cervical cancer is still unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between cervical cancer and HAART. This was achieved by studying the expression of two signalling molecules expressed in cervical cancer; MUC1 and P65. Following the 24 hour treatment of a cervical cancer cell line, HCS-2, with drugs which are commonly used as part of HAART at their clinical plasma concentrations, real-time qPCR and immunofluorescence were used in order to study gene and protein expression. A one way ANOVA followed by a Tukey Kramer Post Hoc test was conducted using JMP 11 software on both sets of data. The drug classified as a protease inhibitor (PI) (i.e. LPV/r) reduced MUC1 and P65 gene and protein expression more than the other drug tested. PIs are known to play a significant role in cell death, therefore the cells were thought to be more susceptible to cell death following treatment with PIs. In conclusion, the drugs used, especially the PI showed some anticancer effects by facilitating cell death through decreased gene and protein expression of MUC1 and P65 and present promising agents for cancer treatment.

Keywords: cervical cancer, haart, MUC1, P65

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Authors: Rayhaneh Amooaghaie, Maryam Norouzi

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In this study, the effects of nTiO₂ on seed germination and growth of six plant species (wheat, soybean, tomato, canola, cucumber, and lettuce) were evaluated in petri dish (direct exposure) and in soil in a greenhouse experiment (soil exposure). Data demonstrate that under both culture conditions, low or mild concentrations of nTiO₂ either stimulated or had no effect on seed germination, root growth and vegetative biomass while high concentrations had an inhibitory effect. However, results showed that the impacts of nTiO₂ on plant growth in soil were partially consistent with those observed in pure culture. Based on both experiment sets, among above six species, lettuce and canola were the most susceptible and the most tolerant species to nTiO₂ toxicity. However, results revealed the impacts of nTiO₂ on plant growth in soil were less than petri dish exposure probability due to dilution in soil and complexation/aggregation of nTiO₂ that would lead to lower exposure of plants. The high concentrations of nTiO₂ caused significant reductions in fresh and dry weight of aerial parts and root and chlorophyll and carotenoids contents of all species which also coincided with further accumulation of malondialdehyde (MDA). These findings suggest that decreasing growth might be the result of an nTiO₂-induced oxidative stress and disturbance of photosynthesis systems.

Keywords: chlorophyll, lipid peroxidation, nano TiO₂, seed germination

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Authors: Sundaresan Sivapatham, B. Prabhu

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Cancer results from a multistage, multi-mechanism carcinogenesis process that involves mutagenic, cell death and epigenetic mechanisms, during the three distinguishable but closely allied stages: initiation, promotion, and progression. Chemoprevention is promising in the realm of cancer prevention and it has been shown to reduce the risk of development of carcinoma in highly susceptible individuals such as those with known genetic mutations or high level of risk factors. The present study is aimed at the need of early detection of bladder cancer in order to improve performance in the treatment of this disease. Consumption of certain natural products like DIM is associated with a reduction in cancer incidence in humans. The study showed the protective effects of Diindolylmethane in N-Butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine treated rats. Results of the study had shown the changes in the tumor markers, biomarkers and histopathological alterations in experimental rats when compared to control rats. The protective effects of DIM were shown from the results of cell proliferation, apoptotic markers and histopathological findings when compared with experimental control animals. Hence, our results speculate that the tumor markers, apoptotic markers, histopathological changes and cell proliferation index measured as PCNA serves as an indicator suggestive of protective effects of DIM in BBN induced urinary bladder carcinogenesis.

Keywords: bladder cancer, N-Butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine, diindolylmethane, histopathology

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Authors: Maryam Vaezjalali, Foad Davoodbeglou, Mehrnaz Mesdaghi, Hossein Goudarzi, Fariba Shojaei, Hourieh Aram

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Introduction: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes chronic infection in human population, with high mortality. Some people are more susceptible to this infection. One of the high risk communities is mentally retarded children, who are institutionalized. Special conditions in these centers predispose children for HBV infection and transmission to healthy people. In this study our objective was to determine the prevalence of HBV infection among institutionalized mentally retarded children and study its associated risk factors. Materials and methods: In this study, 250 mentally retarded children (younger than 14 years old) were included. They were living in 5 nursing institutions, located in different parts of Tehran. HBsAg was measured in the sera of these patients by ELISA method. Results: Among 250 children, 20 children (8%) were HBsAg positive. HBV infection in girls was more than boys (11% to 5.6%). Among the types of mental retardation, children with cerebral palsy had the highest positive result for HBsAg. The most HBV infection (28.5%) was seen in children with longest duration of being institutionalized (10 to 11 years). Vaccinated children were more HBsAg positive (8.7%) than non-vaccinated children (5.3%). However, no significant relationship was observed between any of these factors and HBsAg positivity. Conclusion: Despite improvement of people’s health condition and implementation of HBV vaccination, the prevalence of HBV infection is high in institutionalized mentally retarded children, which highlights the need for active measures to reduce this infection among this high risk population.

Keywords: hepatitis B virus, HBV vaccine, intellectually disabled children, mentally retarded

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Authors: P. Sindhumole, K. Soumya, R. Renjimol

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Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the major staple food crop over the world. It is prone to a number of biotic and abiotic stresses, out of which Bacterial Leaf Blight (BLB), caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae, is the most rampant. Management of this disease through chemicals or any other means is very difficult. The best way to control BLB is by the development of Host Plant Resistance. BLB resistance is not an activity of a single gene but it involves a cluster of more than thirty genes reported. Among these, Xa5 and Xa13 genes are two important ones, which can be diagnosed through marker assisted selection using closely linked molecular markers. During 2014, the first phase of field screening using forty traditional rice genotypes was carried out and twenty resistant symptomless genotypes were identified. Molecular characterisation of these genotypes using RM 122 SSR marker revealed the presence of Xa5 gene in thirteen genotypes. Forty-two traditional rice genotypes were used for the second phase of field screening for BLB resistance. Among these, sixteen resistant genotypes were identified. These genotypes, along with two susceptible check genotypes, were subjected to marker assisted selection for Xa13 gene, using the linked STS marker RG-136. During this process, presence of Xa13 gene could be detected in ten resistant genotypes. In future, these selected genotypes can be directly utilised as donors in Marker assisted breeding programmes for BLB resistance in rice.

Keywords: oryza sativa, SSR, STS, marker, disease, breeding

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Authors: Mehran Asadi, Afrand Agah

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In data mining, partitioning is used as a fundamental tool for classification. With the help of partitioning, we study the structure of data, which allows us to envision decision rules, which can be applied to classification trees. In this research, we used online social network dataset and all of its attributes (e.g., Node features, labels, etc.) to determine what constitutes an above average chance of being a divergent node. We used the R statistical computing language to conduct the analyses in this report. The data were found on the UC Irvine Machine Learning Repository. This research introduces the basic concepts of classification in online social networks. In this work, we utilize overfitting and describe different approaches for evaluation and performance comparison of different classification methods. In classification, the main objective is to categorize different items and assign them into different groups based on their properties and similarities. In data mining, recursive partitioning is being utilized to probe the structure of a data set, which allow us to envision decision rules and apply them to classify data into several groups. Estimating densities is hard, especially in high dimensions, with limited data. Of course, we do not know the densities, but we could estimate them using classical techniques. First, we calculated the correlation matrix of the dataset to see if any predictors are highly correlated with one another. By calculating the correlation coefficients for the predictor variables, we see that density is strongly correlated with transitivity. We initialized a data frame to easily compare the quality of the result classification methods and utilized decision trees (with k-fold cross validation to prune the tree). The method performed on this dataset is decision trees. Decision tree is a non-parametric classification method, which uses a set of rules to predict that each observation belongs to the most commonly occurring class label of the training data. Our method aggregates many decision trees to create an optimized model that is not susceptible to overfitting. When using a decision tree, however, it is important to use cross-validation to prune the tree in order to narrow it down to the most important variables.

Keywords: online social networks, data mining, social cloud computing, interaction and collaboration

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Authors: Mostafa A. Amer, I. A. El-Samra, I. I. Abou-ElSeoud, S. M. El-Abd, N. K. Shawertamimi

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Tomato Fusarium wilt disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. Lycopercisi (FOL) is considered one of the most destructive diseases in Egypt. Effect of some biotic inducers such as Bacillus megaterium var. phosphaticum, Glomus intraradices and Glomus macrocarpum at seven different mixed treatments, was tested for their ability to induce resistance in tomato plants against the disease. According to pathogenicity tests, all the tested isolates of FOL showed wilt symptoms on both of the tested cultivars; however, they considerably varied in percentages of disease incidence (DI) and disease severity (DS). Castle Rock was more susceptible than Peto 86, which was relatively resistant. Pretreatment of both cultivars, under greenhouse conditions, with the tested biotic inducers alone or in combination with each other's, significantly increased the induction of chitinase, β-1,3-glucanase, peroxidase, and polyphenoloxidase and reduced disease incidence and severity, compared with untreated noninoculated (C1) and untreated inoculated (C2) controls. Application of a combination of BMP, with GI and GM was the most effective in increasing the induction rated of the tested enzymes, compared with the other treatments. Induction of enzymes in most of the tested bioinducers treatments gradually increased, attaining maximum values after 48 or/and 72 hrs after challenging with FOL, then gradually declined. GI was the least effective bioinducer.

Keywords: F. oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici, defense enzymes, induced systemic resistance, ISR, B. megaterium var. phosphaticum, G. macrocarpum, G. intraradices

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Authors: Ruben Dario Tovar-Valencia, Eshan Ganju, Fei Han, Monica Prezzi, Rodrigo Salgado

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Particle breakage occurs even in strong silica sand particles. There is compelling evidence that suggests that particle breakage causes changes in several properties such as permeability, peak strength, dilatancy and critical state friction angle. Current pile design methods that are based on soil properties do not account for particle breakage that occurs during driving or jacking of displacement piles. This may lead to significant overestimation of pile capacity in sands dominated by particles susceptible to breakage, such as carbonate sands. The objective of this paper is to study the influence of shear displacement on particle breakage and friction angle of carbonate sands, and to furthermore quantify the change in friction angle observed with different levels of particle breakage. To study the phenomenon of particle breakage, multiple ring shear tests have been performed at different levels of vertical confinement on a thoroughly characterized carbonate sand to find i) the shear displacement necessary to reach stable friction angles and ii) the effect of particle breakage on the mobilized friction angle of the tested sand. The findings of this study can potentially be used to update the current pile design methods by developing a friction angle which is a function of shear displacement and breakage characteristics of the sand instead of being a constant value.

Keywords: breakage, carbonate sand, friction angle, pile design, ring shear test

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Authors: Young-Ji Kim, Jin-Hyeong Park, Hong-Seok Kim, Jung-Whan Chon, Kwang-Yeop Kim, Dong-Hyeon Kim, Il-Byeong Kang, Da-Na Jeong, Jin-Hyeok Yim, Ho-Seok Jang, Kwang-Young Song, Kun-Ho Seo

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Stenotrophomonas maltophilia is one of the emerging opportunistic pathogens, and also known to have extensive drug resistance intrinsically including carbepenems which is last resort for most serious infections. One possible way for S. maltophilia to infect human is via wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). In the period between October 2016 and February 2017, effluent samples of WWTP from 3 different pig farms were collected once a month and screened for isolation of S. maltophilia. Total 16 strains of S. maltophilia were isolated and, the antibiotic susceptibility phenotypes were determined by Vitek 2 system for 16 antibiotics, ampicillin (AMP), amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (AMC), piperacillin/tazobactam (TZP), cefazolin (CZ), cefoxitin (FOX), cefotaxime (CTX), ceftazidime (CAZ), cefepime (FEP), aztreonam (AZT), ertapenem (ETP), imipenem (IMP), amikacin (AK), gentamicin (GN), ciprofloxacin (CIP), tigecycline (TGC) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (SXT). All isolates showed high resistance to AMP (100%), CZ (100%), FOX (100%), CTX (100%), CAZ (100%), FEP (94%), AZT (100%), ETP (100%), IMP (100%), AK (100%), GN (100%) whereas were susceptible to CIP (0%), TGC (0%), SXT (6%). All strains harbored at least one of the antibiotic resistance determinant such as spgM, rmlA, and rpfF. Some isolates had similar MLST (multilocus sequence typing) types with clinical isolates, suggesting WWTP could have potential role in the transmission of S. maltophilia to aquatic environment and, possibly, to humans.

Keywords: Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Carbapenem resistance, waste water treatment plant, pig farm

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Authors: Mohd Kamil Vakil

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Air Pollution is caused by the introduction of chemicals in the biosphere. Primary pollutants on reaction with the components of the earth produce Secondary Pollutants like Smog. Ozone is the main ingredient of Smog. The ground level ozone is created by the chemical reactions between Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in the presence of Sunlight. This ozone can enter inside and call as indoor ozone. The automobile emissions in both moving and idling conditions contribute to the indoor ozone formation. During engine ignition and shutdown, motor vehicles emit the ozone forming pollutants like NOx and VOCs, and the phenomena are called Cold Start and Hot-Soak respectively. Subjects like Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and asthma associated with chronic respiratory diseases are susceptible to the harmful effects of Indoor Ozone. The most common cause of COPD other than smoking is the long-term contract with harmful pollutants like ground-level ozone. It is estimated by WHO that COPD will become the third leading cause of all deaths worldwide by 2030. In this paper, the cold-start and hot-soak vehicle emissions are studied in the context of accumulation of oxides of nitrogen at the outer walls of the building which may cause COPD. The titanium oxide coated building material is further discussed as an absorber of NOx when applied to the walls and roof.

Keywords: indoor air quality, cold start emission, hot-soak, ozone

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Authors: H. Fraga, J. A. Santos

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Vitiviniculture in Portugal is a key socio-economic sector, with a strong connection to local traditions and culture. Despite being a relatively small country, with prevailing Mediterranean environments, Portugal comprises an exceptionally large diversity of growth conditions (Terroirs). The vineyard area in Portugal is over 190 thousand hectares, being the eleventh wine producer and ninth wine exporter worldwide. Owing to the strong impact of weather and climate conditions on grapevine physiological development, grape berry quantity and quality show important inter-annual variability. Grapevines are also susceptible to climate change, as their responses will be unavoidably different under future climates. These impacts may change wine typicity of a given region or even its viticultural suitability. The current study reveals that the projected warming and drying trends for Portugal under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are projected to 1) significantly shift current grapevine growing thermal conditions (e.g., heat and chill accumulation), 2) enhance water stress, 3) anticipate phenological timings and 4) modify yields. Moreover, the present study provides some hints regarding the effectiveness of mulching and irrigation as climate change adaptation measures. Our results show that the effectiveness of these adaptation measures will strongly rest on the strength of the climate change signal at a local scale, thus emphasizing the need for local-to-regional climate change assessments.

Keywords: viticulture, climate change, adaptation measures, Portugal

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Authors: Rifqi Irvansyah, Abdullah Abdullah, Yunita Idris, Bunga Raihanda

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Banda Aceh is particularly susceptible to heightened vulnerability during natural disasters due to its concentrated exposure to multi-hazard risks. Despite urgent priorities during the aftermath of natural disasters, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, several public facilities, including school buildings, sustained damage yet continued operations without adequate repairs, even though they were submerged by the tsunami. This research aims to evaluate the consequences of column damage induced by tsunami inundation on the structural integrity of buildings. The investigation employs interaction diagrams for columns to assess their capacity, taking into account factors such as rebar deterioration and corrosion. The analysis result shows that one-fourth of the K1 columns on the first floor fall outside of the column interaction diagram, indicating that the column structure cannot handle the load above it, as evidenced by the presence of Pu and Mu, which are greater than the column's design strength. This suggests that the five columns of K1 should be cause for concern, as the column's capacity is decreasing. These results indicate that the structure of the building cannot sustain the applied load because the column cross-section has deteriorated. In contrast, all K2 columns meet the design strength, indicating that the column structure can withstand the structural loads.

Keywords: tsunami inundation, column damage, column interaction diagram, mitigation effort

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Authors: Eri Sulyanti, Trimurti Habazar, Eti Farda Husen, Abdi Dharma, Nasril Nasir

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In this study, combination of some biocontrol agents with different mechanisms was an alternative to improve the effectiveness of the biological control agents. Single and combined applications of indigenous Pseudomonas fluorescens and Arbuscular Mychorrhizae Fungi (AM Fungi) isolates were tested to induce the resistance on susceptible Cavendish banana against F.oxysporum f. sp. cubense race 4 under greenhouse conditions. These isolates originally isolated from healthy banana rhizosphere at endemic Fusarium wilt areas in the centre of production banana in West Sumatra. These researches were conducted with Randomized Block Design with 16 treatments and 10 replications. The treatments were three indigenous isolates of Pseudomonas fluorescens (Par1-Cv, Par4-Rj1, Par2-Jt1) and 3 isolates of AM Fungi (Gl1BuA4, Gl2BuA6, and Gl1KeP3. The biocontrol agents were applied as single agents and combination two of them. This study demonstrated that the application of combination biocontrol organisms Pseudomonas fluorescens and AM Fungi provided were more effective than single application. The combination of Par1-Cv and Gl1BuA4 isolates was the most effective to control Fusarium wilt and followed by the combination of Par1-Cv and Gl2BuA6 and Par2-Jt1 and Gl1P3.

Keywords: pseudomonad fluorescens (Pf), arbuscular mychorrhizae fungi (AM Fungi) indigenous isolates, fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense, soil rhizosphere

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Authors: Huang Yong, Chen Qianting, Zhao Shurong

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In order to identify the role and effect of Characteristic Towns as an important means to promote urban-rural integration, this paper uses Flow Theory and complex network analysis methods to jointly construct the identification path of urban-rural integration capabilities of Characteristic Towns. Take the National Characteristic Towns of Yunnan Province as the empirical objects to identify their role laws. The study found that in the implementation of the National Characteristic Town Project in Yunnan Province, (1) the population is more susceptible to the impact of the Characteristic Town Project than the technical elements, but the stability is poor; (2) The flow capacity of urban and rural technical elements is weak, and the quality of the enterprise cooperation network in general; (3) Compared with the batch of Characteristic Towns in 2016, its ability to promote urban-rural integration is higher in 2017; (4) The role of the Characteristic Town Project on urban-rural integration focuses on the improvement of the number of urban and rural flow elements. This paper analyzes the mode of the role of Characteristic Towns on urban-rural integration from the perspective of ‘flow,’ establishes a research paradigm for evaluating the role of Characteristic Towns in urban-rural integration capabilities, and builds a path for the application of Characteristic Towns to support the realization of urban-rural integration goals.

Keywords: characteristic town, urban-rural integration, flow theory, complex network analysis

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Authors: Minakshi Jain, I. P. Singh

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The mountain system makes the one fifth of the world’s landscape and is the home to the 600 million people. Though hills and mountains contain about 10 percent of the total population of the country, yet almost half of the country’s population living in or adjacent to the mountain areas depend directly or indirectly on the resources of the hills. Mountain environments are essential to the survival of the global ecosystems, as they sustain the economy of India through its perennial river system and precious forest wealth. Hill areas, with distinct climate, diverse vegetation and valuable flora & fauna are distinguished primarily by unique eco-system, rich both in bio-diversity and visual resources. These areas have special significance in terms of environment and economy. Still the irony is that these mountain ecosystems are fragile and highly susceptible to disturbance, with a low ability to rebound and heal after damage. Hills are home to endangered species, biological diversity and an essential part of the ecosystem. They are extremely sensitive to any human related development. Natural systems are the most ignored in the hills. The way the cities and towns have encroached them today has the serious repercussions on the climate. Amidst immense resources and constraints of nature, the town had a fantastic diversity of cultural and ethnic characteristics nurtured through ages along river basin and valley strung across the length and breadth of this Himalayan setting.

Keywords: eco-system, bio-diversity, urban sprawl, vernacular landscape

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Authors: Fikadu Kifle Hailegeorgis

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Common bean is one of the most important sources of protein in Ethiopia and other developing countries. However, the Mexican bean weevil, Zabrotes subfasciatus (Boheman), is a major factor in the storage of common beans that causes losses. Studies were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of botanical powders of Jatropha curcas (L.), Neem/Azadrachta indica, and Parthenium hysterophorus (L) on local common bean varieties against Z subfasciatus at Melkassa Agriculture Research Center. Twenty local common bean varieties were evaluated twice against Z. Subfasciatus in a completely randomized design in three replications at the rate of 0.2g/250g of seed for each experiment. Malathion and untreated were used as standard checks. The result indicated that RAZ White and Round Yellow showed high resistance variety in experiments while Batu and Black showed high susceptible variety in experiments. Jatropha seed powder was the most effective against Z. subfasciatus. Parthenium seed powders and neem leaf powders also indicate promising results. Common beans treated with botanicals significantly (p<0.05) had a higher germination percentage than that of the untreated seed. In general, the results obtained indicated that using bean varieties (RAZ white and Round yellow) and botanicals (Jatropha) seed powder gave the best control of Z. subfasciatus.

Keywords: botanicals, malathion, resistant varieties, Z. subfasciatus

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Authors: Pauliasi Tony Fakahau

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This paper provides an overview of the impact of the revenue reform programme on vulnerable communities in the Kingdom of Tonga. Economic turmoil and mismanagement during the late 1990s forced the government to seek technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank to undertake a comprehensive Economic and Public Sector Reform (EPSR) programme. The EPSR is a Western model recommended by donor agencies as the solution to Tonga’s economic challenges. The EPSR programme included public sector reform, private sector growth, and revenue generation. Tax reform was the main tool for revenue generation, which set out to strengthen tax compliance and administration as well as implement a value-added consumption tax. The EPSR is based on Western values and ideology but failed to recognise that Tongan cultural values are important to the local community. Two participant groups were interviewed. Participant group one consisted of 51 people representing vulnerable communities. Participant group two consisted of six people from the government and business sector who were from the elite of Tongan society. The Kakala Research Methodology provided the framework for the research, and the Talanoa Research Method was used to conduct semi-structured interviews in the homes of the first group and in the workplaces of the second group. The research found a heavy burden of the consumption tax on the purchasing power of participant group one (vulnerable participants), having an impact on nearly every financial transaction they made. Participant group ones’ main financial priorities were kavenga fakalotu (obligations to the church), kavenga fakafāmili (obligations to the family) and kavenga fakafonua (obligations to cultural events for the village, nobility, and royalty). The findings identified inequalities of the revenue reform, especially from consumption tax, for vulnerable people and communities compared to the elite of society. The research concluded that government and donor agencies need ameliorating policies to reduce the burden of tax on vulnerable groups more susceptible to the impact of revenue reform.

Keywords: tax reform, tonga vulnerable community revenue, revenue reform, public sector reform

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Authors: Antonio A. M. Laudani, Igor O. Golosnoy, Ole T. Thomsen

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Rotor blades of large, modern wind turbines are highly susceptible to downward lightning strikes, as well as to triggering upward lightning; consequently, it is necessary to equip them with an effective lightning protection system (LPS) in order to avoid any damage. The performance of existing LPSs is affected by carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) structures, which lead to lightning-induced damage in the blades, e.g. via electrical sparks. A solution to prevent internal arcing would be to electrically bond the LPS and the composite structures such that to obtain the same electric potential. Nevertheless, elevated temperatures are achieved at the joint interfaces because of high contact resistance, which melts and vaporises some of the epoxy resin matrix around the bonding. The produced high-pressure gasses open up the bonding and can ignite thermal sparks. The objective of this paper is to predict the current density distribution and the temperature field in the adhesive joint cross-section, in order to check whether the resin pyrolysis temperature is achieved and any damage is expected. The finite element method has been employed to solve both the current and heat transfer problems, which are considered weakly coupled. The mathematical model for electric current includes Maxwell-Ampere equation for induced electric field solved together with current conservation, while the thermal field is found from heat diffusion equation. In this way, the current sub-model calculates Joule heat release for a chosen bonding configuration, whereas the thermal analysis allows to determining threshold values of voltage and current density not to be exceeded in order to maintain the temperature across the joint below the pyrolysis temperature, therefore preventing the occurrence of outgassing. In addition, it provides an indication of the minimal number of bonding points. It is worth to mention that the numerical procedures presented in this study can be tailored and applied to any type of joints other than adhesive ones for wind turbine blades. For instance, they can be applied for lightning protection of aerospace bolted joints. Furthermore, they can even be customized to predict the electromagnetic response under lightning strikes of other wind turbine systems, such as nacelle and hub components.

Keywords: carbon fibre reinforced polymer, equipotential bonding, finite element method, FEM, lightning protection system, LPS, wind turbine blades

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Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

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Authors: Reza Hosseinpourpia, Stergios Adamopoulos, Carsten Mai

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Medium density fiberboard (MDF) is a common category of wood-based panels that are widely used in the furniture industry. Fine lignocellulosic fibres are combined with a synthetic resin, mostly urea formaldehyde (UF), and joined together under heat and pressure to form panels. Like solid wood, MDF is a hygroscopic material; therefore, its moisture content depends on the surrounding relative humidity and temperature. In addition, UF is a hydrophilic resin and susceptible to hydrolysis under certain conditions of elevated temperatures and humidity, which cause dimensional instability of the panels. The latter directly affect the performance of final products such as furniture, when they are used in situations of high relative humidity. Existing water-repellent formulations, such as paraffin, present limitations related to their non-renewable nature, cost and highest allowed added amount. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to test the suitability of renewable water repellents as alternative chemicals for enhancing the dimensional stability of MDF panels. A small amount of tall oil based formulations were used as water-repellent agents in the manufacturing of laboratory scale MDF. The effects on dimensional stability, internal bond strength and formaldehyde release of MDF were tested. The results indicated a good potential of tall oil as a bio-based substance of water repellent formulations for improving the dimensional stability of MDF.

Keywords: dimensional stability, medium density fiberboard, tall oil, urea formaldehyde

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Authors: Karim Saeidi

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Safflower capsule fly, Acanthiophilus helianthi Rossi (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a key pest of safflower in Iran. The toxicity of Methidathion, Malathion, Deltamethrin, and Lufenuron to adult males and females of Acanthiophilus helianthi was studied under laboratory conditions. Malathion was the most toxic among the tested compounds followed by Methidathion, Lufenuron, and Deltamethrin to Acanthiophilus helianthi at 24 h post treatment, the respective LC50 values were 0.40 ppm, 0.68 ppm, 10.99 ppm, and 11.75 ppm for males and 0.46 ppm, 0.97 ppm, 13.45 ppm, and 16.32 ppm for females. At 48 h post treatment, Malathion was the most toxic followed by Methidathion, Deltamethrin, and Lufenuron to Acanthiophilus helianthi, LC50 values were 0.08 ppm, 0.54 ppm, 1.80 ppm, and 1.96 ppm for males and 0.34 ppm, 0.64 ppm, 1.88 ppm, and 2.37 ppm for females. At 72 h post treatment, Malathion was the most toxic followed by Methidathion, Lufenuron, and Deltamethrin to Acanthiophilus helianthi LC50 values were 0.04 ppm, 0.33 ppm, 0.44 ppm, and 0.71 ppm for males and 0.09 ppm, 0.36 ppm, 0.75 ppm, and 0.82 ppm for females. It is observed that LC50 values for treated adult females increased more than in the treated adult males at 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h post treatment. It means that the adult males were more susceptible to the tested insecticides than the adult females.

Keywords: safflower, Methidathion, Deltamethrin, Lufenuron, Malathion, Tephritidae, safflower capsule fly, Acanthiophilus helianthi

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Authors: Ana Maria De Azevedo

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We are living a remarkable period, responsible for the thriving of the human population to unprecedented levels. Still, it is empirically obvious that sustaining such a huge population puts a tremendous pressure on our planet. Once Land resources grow scarcer, there is a mounting pressure to find alternatives to support basic human needs elsewhere. Occupying most of our planet, it’s therefore natural that, is not a so distant future, humankind look for such basic subsistence means at the Ocean. Thus, once the Ocean becomes essential to Human subsistence, it is predictable it's moving to the foreground of Geopolitics. Both future technologies and uses of the Ocean, as bidding for the exploration of its resources away from the natural territory of influence of a Country, are susceptible of raising the risk of conflict between traditional political adversaries and/or the dilemma of having to balance economic interests, with various security and defense concerns. Those empirical observations suggest the need to further research on this perspective shift of the main Geopolitical axis to the Ocean, the new sources of conflict that can result thereon, and how to address them. The author suggests a systematic analysis of this problematic, to attain a political and legal international consensus, namely on what concerns updating of the 'United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea' of 10 December 1982, and/or its annexes. To proceed with the present research, the primary analysis was based on a quantitative observation, but reasoning thereon relied essentially on a qualitative process of prospective scenarios assessment.

Keywords: marine resources, ocean geopolitics, security and defense, sustainable development

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Authors: Toake Endoh

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Cross-border migration of people is a critical driver for sustainable economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the region is susceptible to mega-scale natural disasters, such as tsunami, earthquakes, and typhoons. When migrants are stranded in a foreign country by a disaster, who should be responsible for their safety and security? What legal or moral foundation is there to advocate for the protection and assistance of “migrants at risk (M@R)”? How can the states practice “good governance” in their response to displacement of the foreign migrants? This paper inquires how to protect foreign migrants displaced by a natural disaster under international law and proposes protective actions to be taken by of migrant-receiver governments. First, the paper discusses the theoretical foundation for protection of M@R and argues that the nation-states are charged of responsibility to protect at-risk foreigners as “internally displaced persons” in the light of the United Nations’ Guiding Principles of Internal Displacement (1998). Second, through the case study of the Kobe Earthquake in Japan (1995), the Tsunami in Thailand (2004), and the Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. (2005), the paper evaluates how effectively (or poorly) institutions and state actors addressed the specific vulnerability felt by M@R in these crises.

Keywords: internal displaced persons, natural disaster, international migration, responsibility to protect

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Authors: Sohail Ahmed, Ahmad Raza

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Physical properties of maize grains were correlated with levels of the life history of Sitotroga cerealella (Oliv.) (Gelechiidae: Lepidoptera) in no choice test to find out relative resistance in different varieties. Eight maize varieties /lines (EV-6089, Sahiwal-2002, Golden, 34N43, EV-1098, Sultan, China-1, EV-20) including seven yellow and one white were obtained from Maize and Millet Research Institute, Yousaf Wala, Sahiwal, Punjab, Pakistan. Freshly laid eggs (one day old) of S. cerealella were obtained and cultured on a susceptible maize variety for two generations for later on shifting to test varieties. Results showed that maximum moth emergence (10.33), fecundity (35.66), hatching (87.66%), moth weight (5.05 mg), development time (36.0 days) damage (93.35%) and grain weight loss (38.84%) was found in varieties, 34N43 and Golden, Sultan, Sahiwal 2002, 34N43, EV-6089, 34N43 and EV-1089, respectively. Varieties had significant difference with other varieties in these parameters (P<0.05). The varieties had positive as well as negative correlation between hardness index, grain weight and bulk density with the biological parameters of S. cerealella, percent grain damage and weight loss. Possible involvement of these grain properties in the resistance of maize grains towards S. cerealella is discussed.

Keywords: sitotroga cerealella, hardness index, grain damage, maize, varieties

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Authors: Amanuel Bekuma, Rebecca Swift, Sarah Jackson, Ben Biddulph

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Economic loss to frost damage is increasing over the past years in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. Agronomic, genetic, and climatic works have still found a weak correlation between temperature and frost damage. One possibility that has not been explored within the Australian cropping system is whether ice nucleation active bacteria (INB) either present in situ on crop residue or introduced by rainfall could be responsible for the increased sensitivity of cereal plants to frost at different stages of development. This study investigated upper and lower leaf canopy, stubble, and soil as a potential site of ice nucleation activity (INA) and tracked the changes in INA during the plant development. We found that older leaves of wheat are the primary sites of ice nucleation (-4.7 to -6.3°C) followed by stubble (-5.7 to -6.7°C) which increases the risk of frost damage during heading and flowering (the most susceptible stages). However, healthy and green upper canopy leaves (flag and flag-2) and the soil have lower INA (< -11°C) during the frost-sensitive stage of wheat. We anticipate the higher INA on the stubble and older leaves to be due to the presence of biologically active ice-nucleating bacteria (INB), known to cause frost injury to sensitive plants at -5°C. Stubble retained or applied during the growing season further exacerbates additional frost risk by potentially increasing the INB load. The implications of the result for stubble and frost risk management in a frost-prone landscape will be discussed.

Keywords: frost, ice-nucleation-activity, stubble, wheat

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Authors: Neimenuo Kengurusie

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Human trafficking is considered a form of slavery in modern day era and a gross violation of human rights and one of the most organized crimes of the day transcending cultures, geography and time. Human trafficking is a highly complex phenomenon involving many actors like victims, survivors, their families, communities and third parties that recruit, transport and exploit the trafficked victims. It takes different forms such as child trafficking, trafficking for labour, trafficking for sexual exploitation, trafficking for organ transplantation etc. and affects virtually every corner of the world. This research draws on a variety of sources, including books, articles, journals, newspaper reports, human rights reports, online materials and interviews. In India, particularly the North East region, the issue of human trafficking has become a concern regionally, nationally and internationally. The focus of this paper is on the North Eastern part of India as it is a socially and economically backward region of the country which makes women and children susceptible to trafficking. Women and children from these regions are trafficked within and outside the state. Therefore, the paper seeks to explore the issue of human trafficking, especially trafficking of women and children in North East India, which receives insufficient attention in literature. The paper seeks to analyze and understand the trend and patterns of trafficking and the mechanisms that reinforces the process and perpetuates the phenomenon of trafficking considering the nature and scope of the problem. The paper also analyzes the anti-trafficking laws initiated by India and the North East states in particular for combating human trafficking in North East India.

Keywords: children, human trafficking, North East India, women

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Authors: Mehdi Nasr-Esfahani, Leila Mohammad Bagheri, Ava Nasr-Esfahani

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Root and collar rot disease caused by Phytophthora capsici (Leonian) is one of the most serious diseases in pepper, Capsicum annuum L. In this study, a diverse collection of 37 commercial edible and ornamental pepper genotypes infected with P. capsici were investigated for biomass parameters and enzymatic activity of peroxidase or peroxide reductases (EC), superoxide dismutase (SOD), polyphenol oxidase (PPOs), catalase (CAT) and phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL). Seven candidate DEG genes were also evaluated on resistant and susceptible pepper cultivars, through measuring product formation, using spectrophotometry and real-time polymerase chain reaction. All the five enzymes and seven defense-gene candidates were up-regulated in all inoculated pepper accessions to P. capsici. But, the enzymes and DEG genes were highly expressed in resistant cv. 19OrnP-PBI, 37ChillP-Paleo, and “23CherryP-Orsh". The expression level of enzymes were 1.5 to 5.6-fold higher in the resistant peppers, than the control non-inoculated genotypes. Also, the transcriptional levels of related candidate DEG genes were 3.16 to 5.90-fold higher in the resistant genotypes. There was a direct and high correlation coefficient between resistance, bio-mass parameters, enzymatic activity, and resistance gene expression. The related enzymes and candidate genes expressed herein will provide a basis for further gene cloning and functional verification studies, and also will aid in an understanding of the regulatory mechanism of pepper resistance to P. capsici.

Keywords: AP2/ERF, cDNA, enzymes, MIP gene, q-RTPCR, XLOC

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Authors: Anita, Sari Septiani Tangke, Rusdina Bte Ladju, Nasrum Massi

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New diagnostic tools are urgently needed to interrupt the transmission of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility (MODS) assay is a rapid, accurate and simple liquid culture method to detect multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). MODS were evaluated to determine a lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin for detection of MDR-TB. Direct drug-susceptibility testing was performed with the use of the MODS assay. Drug-sensitive control strains were tested daily. The drug concentrations that used for both isoniazid and rifampin were at the same concentration: 0.16, 0.08 and 0.04μg per milliliter. We tested 56 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates and the control strains M. tuberculosis H37RV. All concentration showed same result. Of 53 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates, 14 were MDR-TB, 38 were susceptible with isoniazid and rifampin, 1 was resistant with isoniazid only. Drug-susceptibility testing was performed with the use of the proportion method using Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) system as reference. The result of MODS assay using lower concentration was significance (P<0.001) compare with the reference methods. A lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin can be used to detect MDR-TB. Operational cost and application can be more efficient and easier in resource-limited environments. However, additional studies evaluating the MODS using lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin must be conducted with a larger number of clinical isolates.

Keywords: isoniazid, MODS assay, MDR-TB, rifampin

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