Search results for: extreme weather events

Authors: Gómez R. Marta, Martín M. Jesús María

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The general aim of this paper identifies the areas of highest concentration of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the incinerator through the use of dispersion models. Atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for estimating and prevent the impact of emissions from a particular source in air quality. These models allow considering different factors that influence in air pollution: source characteristics, the topography of the receiving environment and weather conditions to predict the pollutants concentration. The PCDD/Fs, after its emission into the atmosphere, are deposited on water or land, near or far from emission source depending on the size of the associated particles and climatology. In this way, they are transferred and mobilized through environmental compartments. The modelling of PCDD/Fs was carried out with following tools: Atmospheric Dispersion Model Software (ADMS) and Surfer. ADMS is a dispersion model Gaussian plume, used to model the impact of air quality industrial facilities. And Surfer is a program of surfaces which is used to represent the dispersion of pollutants on a map. For the modelling of emissions, ADMS software requires the following input parameters: characterization of emission sources (source type, height, diameter, the temperature of the release, flow rate, etc.) meteorological and topographical data (coordinate system), mainly. The study area was set at 5 Km around the incinerator and the first population center nearest to focus PCDD/Fs emission is about 2.5 Km, approximately. Data were collected during one year (2013) both PCDD/Fs emissions of the incinerator as meteorology in the study area. The study has been carried out during period's average that legislation establishes, that is to say, the output parameters are taking into account the current legislation. Once all data required by software ADMS, described previously, are entered, and in order to make the representation of the spatial distribution of PCDD/Fs concentration and the areas affecting them, the modelling was proceeded. In general, the dispersion plume is in the direction of the predominant winds (Southwest and Northeast). Total levels of PCDD/Fs usually found in air samples, are from <2 pg/m3 for remote rural areas, from 2-15 pg/m3 in urban areas and from 15-200 pg/m3 for areas near to important sources, as can be an incinerator. The results of dispersion maps show that maximum concentrations are the order of 10-8 ng/m3, well below the values considered for areas close to an incinerator, as in this case.

Keywords: atmospheric dispersion, dioxin, furan, incinerator

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Authors: Sara Melkonyan

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Over the past decades, the political (and partly legal) doctrine of remedial secession has emerged on the basis of the development of internationally recognized human rights and rights of peoples stemming from various multilateral treaties, which stipulates that aggrieved and persecuted nations have the right to secede from the parent state as a remedy for their continuous and unstoppable grievances. The 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the following events posed severe challenges for Nagorno-Karabakh and its people. Constant aggression and threat, the humanitarian crisis caused by the closure of the Lachin Corridor, the persistent threat of ethnic cleansing of Artsakhi Armenians, and the state policy that has been executed towards Artsakhi people by the Azerbaijani authorities come to prove that the Artsakhi people cannot survive under Azerbaijani control and secession may be the last resort for ending oppression. The paper tries to make parallels with similar cases and discuss the doctrine of remedial secession applied selectively among different cases. This paper aims to figure out why in some cases the secessionist movements succeeded to gain independence based on the doctrine of remedial secession, in other cases, they refused to gain recognition from the international community. Through analyzing the domestic-level and then international-level factors, the study concluded that the doctrine of remedial secession is inherently in the political realm and almost impossible to draw substantial “recipes” for warranting secession, and the latter is not applied similarly among the cases, so its success mainly depends on the geopolitical interests of the great powers involved.

Keywords: R2P, remedial secession, self-determination, conflicts

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Authors: Shymaa S. Zaher, Hesham M. Abd El-Fatah, Dina M. Ali

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Burullus Lagoon is the second largest lake, along the Mediterranean seashore. It exposed to over nutrient enrichment from fish farming and agricultural drainage wastes. This study assesses the present status phytoplankton response to different flow events, including domestic, agricultural, industrial, and fish farms discharge in the three main sectors of Burullus Lagoon, to focus on the influence of environmental variables on phytoplankton species composition inhabiting the Lagoon. Twelve sites representing the eastern, central, and western basin were selected during winter and summer 2018. Among the most abundant group, Chlorophyceae came in the first rank by 37.9% of the total phytoplankton densities, Bacillariophyceae (29.31%), Cyanophyceae (20.7%), Euglenophyceae (8.63%) and Dinophyceae (3.4%). Cyclotella menenghiana was the most abundant diatoms, while Scenedesmus quadricauda, S. acuminatus, and S. bijuga were highly recorded nearby the drains (in the middle sector). Phytoplankton in Burullus Lagoon attained the lowest values during the winter season and the highest ones during the summer season. The total count of phytoplankton in the middle and western basin of the lake was higher than that of the eastern part. Excessive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and washing out of nutrients loaded to the drainage water, leading to a significant pronounced decrease in community composition and standing crop of phytoplankton in Burullus Lake from year to year, hold the danger of shifting the lagoon ecosystem.

Keywords: Burullus Lagoon, environmental variables, phytoplankton, water pollution

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Authors: Sarmin, S., Ologuin, R.S.

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Background: Rapid population growth and land constraints in Singapore results in a possible situation in which we face a higher number of casualties and lack of operational space in healthcare facilities during disasters and HAZMAT events, collectively known as Civil Emergencies. This creates a need for available working space within hospital grounds to be amphibious or multi-functional, to ensure the institution’s capability to respond efficiently to Civil Emergencies. The Emergency Department (ED) mitigates this issue by converting the Ambulance Assembly Area used during peacetime into an Open Decontamination Facility (ODF) during Civil Emergency Response, for decontamination of casualties before they proceed to treatment areas into Ambulance Assembly Area used during peacetime. Aims: To effectively operationalize the Open Decontamination Facility (ODF) through the reduction of manual handling. Methods: From past experiences on Civil Emergency exercises, it was labor-intensive for staff to set up the Open Decontamination Facility (ODF). Manual handling to set up the Decontamination lanes by bringing down the curtains and supply of water was required to be turned on. Conclusion: The effectiveness of the design construction of an Open Decontamination Facility (ODF) is based on the use of automation of bringing down the curtains on the various lanes. The use of control panels for water supply to decontaminate patients. Safety within the ODF was considered with the installation of panic buttons, intercom for staff communication, and perimeter curtains were installed with stability arm to manage the condition with high wind velocity.

Keywords: civil emergencies, disaster, emergency department, Hazmat

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation

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Authors: Jingyi Li, Laurence Stamford, Alejandro Gallego-Schmid

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Renewable electricity has become an indispensable contributor to achieving net-zero by the mid-century to tackle climate change. Unlike solar, wind, or hydro, geothermal was stagnant in its electricity production development for decades. However, with the significant breakthrough made in recent years, especially the implementation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in various regions globally, geothermal electricity could play a pivotal role in alleviating greenhouse gas emissions. Life cycle assessment has been applied to analyze specific geothermal power generation technologies, which proposed suggestions to optimize its environmental performance. For instance, selecting a high heat gradient region enables a higher flow rate from the production well and extends the technical lifespan. Although such process-level improvements have been made, the significance of geothermal power generation technologies so far has not explicitly displayed its competitiveness on a broader horizon. Therefore, this review-based study integrates a circular economy framework into life cycle assessment, clarifying the underlying added values for geothermal power plants to complete the sustainability profile. The derived results have provided an enlarged platform to discuss geothermal power generation technologies: (i) recover the heat and electricity from the process to reduce the fossil fuel requirements; (ii) recycle the construction materials, such as copper, steel, and aluminum for future projects; (iii) extract the lithium ions from geothermal brine and make geothermal reservoir become a potential supplier of the lithium battery industry; (iv) repurpose the abandoned oil and gas wells to build geothermal power plants; (v) integrate geothermal energy with other available renewable energies (e.g., solar and wind) to provide heat and electricity as a hybrid system at different weather; (vi) rethink the fluids used in stimulation process (EGS only), replace water with CO2 to achieve negative emissions from the system. These results provided a new perspective to the researchers, investors, and policymakers to rethink the role of geothermal in the energy supply network.

Keywords: climate, renewable energy, R strategies, sustainability

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Esmaili

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One of the most important parts of the restoration process of a power network is the synchronizing of its subsystems. In this situation, the biggest concern of the system operators will be the reduction of the standing phase angle (SPA) between the endpoints of the two islands. In this regard, the system operators perform various actions and maneuvers so that the synchronization operation of the subsystems is successfully carried out and the system finally reaches acceptable stability. The most common of these actions include load control, generation control and, in some cases, changing the network topology. Although these maneuvers are simple and common, due to the weak network and extreme load changes, the restoration will be associated with low speed. One of the best ways to control the SPA is to use FACTS devices. By applying a soft control signal, these tools can reduce the SPA between two subsystems with more speed and accuracy, and the synchronization process can be done in less time. Meanwhile, the unified power controller (UPFC), a series-parallel compensator device with the change of transmission line power and proper adjustment of the phase angle, will be the proposed option in order to realize the subject of this research. Therefore, with the optimal placement of UPFC in a power system, in addition to improving the normal conditions of the system, it is expected to be effective in reducing the SPA during power system restoration. Therefore, the presented paper provides an optimal structure to coordinate the three problems of improving the division of subsystems, reducing the SPA and optimal power flow with the aim of determining the optimal location of UPFC and optimal subsystems. The proposed objective functions in this paper include maximizing the quality of the subsystems, reducing the SPA at the endpoints of the subsystems, and reducing the losses of the power system. Since there will be a possibility of creating contradictions in the simultaneous optimization of the proposed objective functions, the structure of the proposed optimization problem is introduced as a non-linear multi-objective problem, and the Pareto optimization method is used to solve it. The innovative technique proposed to implement the optimization process of the mentioned problem is an optimization algorithm called the water cycle (WCA). To evaluate the proposed method, the IEEE 39 bus power system will be used.

Keywords: UPFC, SPA, water cycle algorithm, multi-objective problem, pareto

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Authors: Sara Tokhi Arab, Rozo Noguchi, Tofeal Ahamed

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Drought is a natural disaster that occurs in a region due to a lack of precipitation and high temperatures over a continuous period or in a single season as a consequence of climate change. Precipitation deficits and prolonged high temperatures mostly affect the agricultural sector, water resources, socioeconomics, and the environment. Consequently, it causes agricultural product loss, food shortage, famines, migration, and natural resources degradation in a region. Agriculture is the first sector affected by drought. Therefore, it is important to develop an agricultural drought risk and loss assessment to mitigate the drought impact in the agriculture sector. In this context, the main purpose of this study was to assess yield loss using composite drought indices in the drought-affected vineyards. In this study, the CDI was developed for the years 2016 to 2020 by comprising five indices: the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), deviation of NDVI from the long-term mean (NDVI DEV), normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and precipitation condition index (PCI). Moreover, the quantitative principal component analysis (PCA) approach was used to assign a weight for each input parameter, and then the weights of all the indices were combined into one composite drought index. Finally, Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) were used to evaluate the yield variation in each affected vineyard. The composite drought index result indicated the moderate to severe droughts were observed across the Kabul Province during 2016 and 2018. Moreover, the results showed that there was no vineyard in extreme drought conditions. Therefore, we only considered the severe and moderated condition. According to the BRANNs results R=0.87 and R=0.94 in severe drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018 and the R= 0.85 and R=0.91 in moderate drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018, respectively. In the Kabul Province within the two years drought periods, there was a significate deficit in the vineyards. According to the findings, 2018 had the highest rate of loss almost -7 ton/ha. However, in 2016 the loss rates were about – 1.2 ton/ha. This research will support stakeholders to identify drought affect vineyards and support farmers during severe drought.

Keywords: grapes, composite drought index, yield loss, satellite remote sensing

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Authors: Shafag Dadashova

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The study discusses relativity of perception and interpretation of power, its interdependence with conformity level of an individual. It describes an autobiography as a form of epiphany. It is suggested that life-writing helps the author analyze the past and define the borders of his personal power and sources of empowerment. As all life-writings deal with behaviors, values, attitudes, relationships and emotions, their investigation requires qualitative methods to understand social norms, gender roles, religion, and their role in empowerment and disempowerment of the author. The study consists of two parts. The first part is theoretical and interrogates the notion of personal power and how writing the own life can bring to conscious empowerment. The second part presents two autobiographies by female authors from two different Muslim cultures who negotiate between the larger nationalist agenda and their own personal concerns. These autobiographies (Tehmina Durrani, Pakistani author ‘My Feudal Lord’, Banine, Azerbaijani writer 'Caucasian days' and 'Parisian days') are the end of their authors’ long silence, their revolt against the conventional norms, their decision to have an agency to confess and protest. These autobiographies are the authors’ attempts to break the established matrix of perceptions, imposed norms, and gain power to build the real picture of their identity. The study sums up with the conclusion that in spite of very similar motifs of female authors to get empowered through self-analysis, different cultures and time create specific subjectivities associated with particular historical events and geographical location.

Keywords: conformity level, empowerment, female autobiography, self-identity

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Authors: Dany I. Doughan, Nizam S. Najd

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Different governments in today’s global pandemic are approaching the challenging and complex issue of mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus differently while simultaneously considering their national economic and operational bottom lines. One of the most notable successes has been Taiwan's multifaceted virus containment approach, which resulted in a substantially lower incidence rate compared to Sweden’s chief mitigation tactic of herd immunity. From a classic Swiss Cheese Model perspective, integrating more fail-safe layers of defense against the virus in Taiwan’s approach compared to Sweden’s meant that in Taiwan, the government did not have to resort to extreme measures like the national lockdown Sweden is currently contemplating. From an optimized virus spread mitigation solution development standpoint using the Solutions Principle, the Taiwanese and Swedish solutions were desirable economically by businesses that remained open and non-economically or socially by individuals who enjoyed fewer disruptions from what they considered normal before the pandemic. Out of the two, the Taiwanese approach was more feasible long-term from a workforce management and quality control perspective for healthcare facilities and their professionals who were able to provide better, longer, more attentive care to the fewer new positive COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the Taiwanese approach was more applicable as an overall model to emulate thanks in part to its short-term and long-term multilayered approach, which allows for the kind of flexibility needed by other governments to fully or partially adapt or adopt said, model. The Swedish approach, on the other hand, ignored the biochemical nature of the virus and relied heavily on short-term personal behavioral adjustments and conduct modifications, which are not as reliable as establishing required societal norms and awareness programs. The available international data on COVID-19 cases and the published governmental approaches to control the spread of the coronavirus support a better fit into the Solutions Principle of Taiwan’s Swiss Cheese Model success story compared to Sweden’s.

Keywords: coronavirus containment and mitigation, solutions principle, Swiss Cheese Model, viral mutation

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Authors: Sharmin Sultana, Reinhard Schlickeiser

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A degenerate relativistic quantum plasma (DRQP) system (containing relativistically degenerate electrons, degenerate/non-degenerate light nuclei, and non-degenerate heavy nuclei) is considered to investigate the propagation characteristics of electrostatic solitary waves (in the ionic scale length) theoretically and numerically. The ion-acoustic solitons are found to be associated with the modified ion-acoustic waves (MIAWs) in which inertia (restoring force) is provided by mass density of the light or heavy nuclei (degenerate pressure of the cold electrons). A mechanical-motion analog (Sagdeev-type) pseudo-potential approach is adopted to study the properties of large amplitude solitary waves. The basic properties of the large amplitude MIAWs and their existence domain in terms of soliton speed (Mach number) are examined. On the other hand, a multi-scale perturbation approach, leading to an evolution equation for the envelope dynamics, is adopted to derive the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE). The criteria for the occurrence of modulational instability (MI) of the MIAWs are analyzed via the nonlinear dispersion relation of the NLSE. The possibility for the formation of highly energetic localized modes (e.g. peregrine solitons, rogue waves, etc.) is predicted in such DRQP medium. Peregrine solitons or rogue waves with amplitudes of several times of the background are observed to form in DRQP. The basic features of these modulated waves (e.g. envelope solitons, peregrine solitons, and rogue waves), which are found to form in DRQP, and their MI criteria (on the basis of different intrinsic plasma parameters), are investigated. It is emphasized that our results should be useful in understanding the propagation characteristics of localized disturbances and the modulation dynamics of envelope solitons, and their instability criteria in astrophysical DRQP system (e.g. white dwarfs, neutron stars, etc., where matters under extreme conditions are assumed to exist) and also in ultra-high density experimental plasmas.

Keywords: degenerate plasma, envelope solitons, modified ion-acoustic waves, modulational instability, rogue waves

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Authors: Karolin Bauer, Anna Brinkmann

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Vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure can cause significant difficulties for the affected population during crises. Securing the food supply as part of the critical infrastructure in crisis situations is an essential part of public services and a ground stone for a successful concept of civil protection. In most industrialized countries, there are currently no comparative studies regarding the food supply of the population during crisis and disaster events. In order to mitigate the potential impact in case of major disasters in Germany, it is absolutely necessary to investigate how the food supply can be secured. The research project aims to provide in-depth research on the experiences gathered during past large-scale disasters in the 34 OECD member countries in order to discover alternatives for an updated civil protection system in Germany. The basic research question is: "Which international approaches and structures of civil protection have been proven and would be useful to modernize the German civil protection with regards to the critical infrastructure and food supply?" Research findings should be extracted from an extensive literature review covering the entire research period as well as from personal and online-based interviews with experts and responsible persons from involved institutions. The capability of the research project insists on the deliberate choice to investigate previous large-scale disasters to formulate important and practical approaches to modernize civil protection in Germany.

Keywords: food supply, vulnerabilty, critical infratstructure, large-scale disaster

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Authors: J. C. Cabanillas-Noris, M. I. Martínez-Hernández, I. León-Monzón

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The selection of diffractive events in the ALICE experiment during the first data taking period (RUN-I) of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was limited by the range over which rapidity gaps occur. It would be possible to achieve better measurements by expanding the range in which the production of particles can be detected. For this purpose, the ALICE Diffractive (AD0) detector has been installed and commissioned for the second phase (RUN-II). Any new detector should be able to take the data synchronously with all other detectors and be operated through the ALICE central systems. One of the key elements that must be developed for the AD0 detector is the Detector Control System (DCS). The DCS must be designed to operate safely and correctly this detector. Furthermore, the DCS must also provide optimum operating conditions for the acquisition and storage of physics data and ensure these are of the highest quality. The operation of AD0 implies the configuration of about 200 parameters, from electronics settings and power supply levels to the archiving of operating conditions data and the generation of safety alerts. It also includes the automation of procedures to get the AD0 detector ready for taking data in the appropriate conditions for the different run types in ALICE. The performance of AD0 detector depends on a certain number of parameters such as the nominal voltages for each photomultiplier tube (PMT), their threshold levels to accept or reject the incoming pulses, the definition of triggers, etc. All these parameters define the efficiency of AD0 and they have to be monitored and controlled through AD0 DCS. Finally, AD0 DCS provides the operator with multiple interfaces to execute these tasks. They are realized as operating panels and scripts running in the background. These features are implemented on a SCADA software platform as a distributed control system which integrates to the global control system of the ALICE experiment.

Keywords: AD0, ALICE, DCS, LHC

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Authors: C. S. Seema, P. R. Prince

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The characterization of spatio-temporal inhomogeneities occurring in the ionospheric F₂ layer is remarkable since these variations are direct consequences of electrodynamical coupling between magnetosphere and solar events. The temporal and spatial variations of the F₂ layer, which occur with a period of several days or even years, mainly owe to geomagnetic and meteorological activities. The hourly F₂ layer critical frequency (foF2) over 23rd solar cycle (1996-2008) of three ionosonde stations (Wakkanai, Kokunbunji, and Okinawa) in northern hemisphere, which falls within same longitudinal span, is analyzed using continuous wavelet techniques. Morlet wavelet is used to transform continuous time series data of foF2 to a two dimensional time-frequency space, quantifying the time evolution of the oscillatory modes. The presence of significant time patterns (periodicities) at a particular time period and the time location of each periodicity are detected from the two-dimensional representation of the wavelet power, in the plane of scale and period of the time series. The mean strength of each periodicity over the entire period of analysis is studied using global wavelet spectrum. The quasi biennial, annual, semiannual, 27 day, diurnal and 12 hour variations of foF2 are clearly evident in the wavelet power spectra in all the three stations. Critical frequency oscillations with multi-day periods (2-3 days and 9 days in the low latitude station, 6-7 days in all stations and 15 days in mid-high latitude station) are also superimposed over large time scaled variations.

Keywords: continuous wavelet analysis, critical frequency, ionosphere, solar cycle

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Authors: Amichai Ben ari, Daniella Margalit

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Medical procedures, such as surgery, may have traumatic significance for some children. This study examines the relationship between maltreatment in children and the development Pediatric Medical Traumatic Stress (PMTS). To this end, differences in the level of distress of children after surgery were examined between two groups: children who were maltreated ("children at risk") and children from the control group ("children who are not at risk"). The study involved 230 parents of children who came to the hospital to undergo surgery. Parents filled out demographic questionnaires to measure socioeconomic variables and psychological questionnaires to measure the distress of the child and parent before surgery. After 6 months from the time of surgery, the parents again filled in the questionnaire measuring the child's distress. The results of the study showed that the level of distress experienced by children at risk after surgery was significantly higher relative to children who are not at risk. It was also found that the level of distress experienced by parents of children at risk in relation to their child’s surgery is significantly higher compared to parents of children who are not at risk. Finally, it was found that the variables: (1) pre-morbid psychological functioning of the child. (2) Parental and family functioning in daily life. (3) Exposure of the child to traumatic events. (4) Support factors for the family. Are variables that predict the development of PMTS in children after surgery, but only for children at risk and not for children who are not at risk. The significance of the findings in relation to the need to identify at-risk populations in the hospitals and the policies derived from them were discussed, and several directions were raised for further research.

Keywords: children at risk, pediatric medical traumatic stress (PMTS), PTSD, medical procedures

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Authors: Ashit Syngle, Nidhi Garg, Pawan Krishan

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Background: Endothelial Progenitor Cells (EPCs) are depleted and contribute to increased cardiovascular (CV) risk in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Statins exert a protective effect in CAD partly by promoting EPC mobilization. This vasculoprotective effect of statin has not yet been investigated in RA. We aimed to investigate the effect of rosuvastatin on EPCs in RA. Methods: 50 RA patients were randomized to receive 6 months of treatment with rosuvastatin (10 mg/day, n=25) and placebo (n=25) as an adjunct to existing stable antirheumatic drugs. EPCs (CD34+/CD133+) were quantified by Flow Cytometry. Inflammatory measures included DAS28, CRP and ESR were measured at baseline and after treatment. Lipids and pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1) were estimated at baseline and after treatment. Results: At baseline, inflammatory measures and pro-inflammatory cytokines were elevated and EPCs depleted among both groups. At baseline, EPCs inversely correlated with DAS28 and TNF-α in both groups. EPCs increased significantly (p < 0.01) after treatment with rosuvastatin but did not show significant change with placebo. Rosuvastatin exerted positive effect on lipid spectrum: lowering total cholesterol, LDL, non HDL and elevation of HDL as compared with placebo. At 6 months, DAS28, ESR, CRP, TNF-α and IL-6 improved significantly in rosuvastatin group. Significant negative correlation was observed between EPCs and DAS28, CRP, TNF-α, and IL-6 after treatment with rosuvastatin. Conclusion: First study to show that rosuvastatin improves inflammation and EPC biology in RA possibly through its anti-inflammatory and lipid lowering effect. This beneficial effect of rosuvastatin may provide a novel strategy to prevent cardiovascular events in RA.

Keywords: RA, Endothelial Progenitor Cells, rosuvastatin, cytokines

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Wei-Kuang Liu, Ya-Hsu Chiang

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In the coming of an aging society, the issues of living quality, health care, and social security for the elderly have been gradually taken seriously. In order to maintain favorable living condition, urban societies are also facing the challenge of disasters caused by extreme climate change. However, in the practice of disaster prevention, elderly people are always weak due to their physiological conditions. That is to say, in the planning of resilient urbanism, the aging society is relatively in need of more care. Thus, this research aims to map areas where have high-density elderly population and fragile environmental condition in Taiwan, and to understand the actual situation of disaster prevention management in these areas, so as to provide suggestions for the development of intellectual resilient urban management. The research takes the cities of Taoyuan and Taichung as examples for explorations. According to GIS mapping of areas with high aging index, high-density population and high flooding potential, the communities of Sihai and Fuyuan in Taoyuan and the communities of Taichang and Nanshih in Taichung are highlighted. In these communities, it can be found that there are more elderly population and less labor population with high-density living condition. In addition, they are located in the areas where they have experienced severe flooding in the recent past. Based on a series of interviews with community organizations, there is only one community out of the four using flood information mobile app and Line messages for the management of disaster prevention, and the others still rely on the traditional approaches that manage the works of disaster prevention by their community security patrol teams and community volunteers. The interview outcome shows that most elderly people are not interested in learning the use of intellectual devices. Therefore, this research suggests to keep doing the GIS mapping of areas with high aging index, high-density population and high flooding potential for grasping the high-risk communities and to help develop smart monitor and forecast systems for disaster prevention practice in these areas. Based on case-study explorations, the research also advises that it is important to develop easy-to-use bottom-up and two-way immediate communication mechanism for the management of aging society’s disaster prevention.

Keywords: aging society, disaster prevention, GIS, resilient, Taiwan

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Authors: K. C. Iyer, T. Gupta, Y. M. Bindal

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Head office overhead (HOOH) is an indirect cost and is recovered through individual project billings by the contractor. Delay in a project impacts the absorption of HOOH cost allocated to that particular project and thus diminishes the expected profit of the contractor. This unabsorbed HOOH cost is later claimed by contractors as damages. The subjective nature of the available formulae to compute unabsorbed HOOH is the difficulty that contractors and owners face and thus dispute it. The paper attempts to bring together the rationale of various HOOH formulae by gathering contractor’s HOOH cost data on all of its project, using case study approach and comparing variations in values of HOOH using scenario analysis. The case study approach uses project data collected from four construction projects of a contractor in India to calculate unabsorbed HOOH costs from various available formulae. Scenario analysis provides further variations in HOOH values after considering two independent situations mainly scope changes and new projects during the delay period. Interestingly, one of the findings in this study reveals that, in spite of HOOH getting absorbed by additional works available during the period of delay, a few formulae depict an increase in the value of unabsorbed HOOH, neglecting any absorption by the increase in scope. This indicates that these formulae are inappropriate for use in case of a change to the scope of work. Results of this study can help both parties in deciding on an appropriate formula more objectively, considering the events on a project causing the delay and contractor's position in respect of obtaining new projects.

Keywords: absorbed and unabsorbed overheads, head office overheads, scenario analysis, scope variation

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Authors: Lucas Caldas, Pablo Paulse, Karla Hora

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Shipping containers are present in different Brazilian cities, firstly used for transportation purposes, but which become waste materials and an environmental burden in their end-of-life cycle. In the last decade, in Brazil, some buildings made partly or totally from shipping containers started to appear, most of them for commercial and office uses. Although the use of a reused container for buildings seems a sustainable solution, it is very important to measure the thermal and energy aspects when they are used as such. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the thermal and energy performance of an office building totally made from a 12-meter-long, High Cube 40’ shipping container in different Brazilian Bioclimatic Zones. Four different constructive solutions, mostly used in Brazil were chosen: (1) container without any covering; (2) with internally insulated drywall; (3) with external fiber cement boards; (4) with both drywall and fiber cement boards. For this, the DesignBuilder with EnergyPlus was used for the computational simulation in 8760 hours. The EnergyPlus Weather File (EPW) data of six Brazilian capital cities were considered: Curitiba, Sao Paulo, Brasilia, Campo Grande, Teresina and Rio de Janeiro. Air conditioning appliance (split) was adopted for the conditioned area and the cooling setpoint was fixed at 25°C. The coefficient of performance (CoP) of air conditioning equipment was set as 3.3. Three kinds of solar absorptances were verified: 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 of exterior layer. The building in Teresina presented the highest level of energy consumption, while the one in Curitiba presented the lowest, with a wide range of differences in results. The constructive option of external fiber cement and drywall presented the best results, although the differences were not significant compared to the solution using just drywall. The choice of absorptance showed a great impact in energy consumption, mainly compared to the case of containers without any covering and for use in the hottest cities: Teresina, Rio de Janeiro, and Campo Grande. This study brings as the main contribution the discussion of constructive aspects for design guidelines for more energy-efficient container buildings, considering local climate differences, and helps the dissemination of this cleaner constructive practice in the Brazilian building sector.

Keywords: bioclimatic zones, Brazil, shipping containers, thermal and energy performance

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Authors: Jie-Ying Wu, Kuo-Hao Weng, Jin-Cheng Fu

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This study proposes changes to land use for the purposes of water retention and runoff reduction, with the aim of reducing the frequency of flooding. This study uses the Zhuoshui River in Taiwan as a case study, designing different land use planning strategies, and setting up various detention spaces. The HEC-HMS model developed by the Hydrology Research Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is used to calculate the decrease in runoff using various planning strategies, during five precipitation events of increasing return periods. This study finds that a maximum decrease in runoff of 14 million square meters can result by changing the form of land cover and storm detention in non-urban agricultural and river zones. This is due to the fact that non-urban land accounts for 96% of the area under study. Greatest efficacy was demonstrated in a two-year return period, with results ranging from 16% to 52%. The efficacy of a 100-year return period rated from 3% to 8%. Urban area detentions consist of agricultural paddy fields, storm water ponds and rainwater retention systems in building basements. Although urban areas can provide one million cubic meters of runoff storage, this result is insignificant due to the fact that urban area constitutes only 4% of the study area. By changing land cover, a 2-year return period has a 9% efficacy, and a 100-year return period has a 2% efficacy.

Keywords: flood detention space, land-use, spatial planning, Zhuoshuei River, Taiwan

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Authors: Asma Mehan

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Under the thrust of technological changes, population growth and vehicular traffic, Iranian historical squares have lost their significance and they are no longer the main social nodes of the society. This research focuses on how historical public squares can inspire designers to enhance social interactions among citizens in Iranian urban context. Moreover, the recent master plan of Tehran demonstrates the lack of public spaces designed for the purpose of people’s social gatherings. For filling this gap, first the current situation of 7 selected primary historical public squares in Tehran including Sabze Meydan, Arg, Topkhaneh, Baherstan, Mokhber-al-dole, Rah Ahan and Hassan Abad have been compared. Later, the influencing elements on social interactions of the public squares such as subjective factors (human relationships and memories) and objective factors (natural and built environment) have been investigated. As a conclusion, some strategies are proposed for improving social interactions in historical public squares like; holding cultural, national, athletic and religious events, defining different and new functions in public squares’ surrounding, increasing pedestrian routs, reviving the collective memory, demonstrating the historical importance of square, eliminating visual obstacles across the square, organization the natural elements of the square, appropriate pavement for social activities. Finally, it is argued that the combination of all influencing factors which are: human interactions, natural elements and built environment criteria will lead to enhance the historical public squares’ potential for social interaction.

Keywords: historical square, Iranian public square, social interaction, Tehran

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Authors: Ramon Alberto Paredes Camacho, Li Lu

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Sustainable batteries are possible through the development of cheaper and greener alternatives whose most feasible option is epitomized by Sodium-Ion Batteries (SIB). Na₃V₂(PO₄)₂F₃ (NVPF) an important member of the Na-superionic-conductor (NASICON) materials, has recently been in the spotlight due to its interesting electrochemical properties when used as cathode namely, high specific capacity of 128 mA h g-¹, high energy density of 507 W h Kg-¹, increased working potential at which vanadium redox couples can be activated (with an average value around 3.9 V), and small volume variation of less than 2%. These traits grant NVPF an excellent perspective as a cathode material for the next generation of sodium batteries. Unfortunately, because of its low inherent electrical conductivity and a high energy barrier that impedes the mobilization of all the available Na ions per formula, the overall electrochemical performance suffers substantial degradation, finally obstructing its industrial use. Many approaches have been developed to remediate these issues where nanostructural design, carbon coating, and ion doping are the most effective ones. This investigation is focused on enhancing the electrochemical response of NVPF by doping metal ions in the crystal lattice, substituting vanadium atoms. A facile sol-gel process is employed, with citric acid as the chelator and the carbon source. The optimized conditions circumvent fluorine sublimation, ratifying the material’s purity. One of the reasons behind the large ionic improvement is the attraction of extra Na ions into the crystalline structure due to a charge imbalance produced by the valence of the doped ions (+2), which is lower than the one of vanadium (+3). Superior stability (higher than 90% at a current density of 20C) and capacity retention at an extremely high current density of 50C are demonstrated by our doped NVPF. This material continues to retain high capacity values at low and high temperatures. In addition, full cell NVPF//Hard Carbon shows capacity values and high stability at -20 and 60ºC. Our doping strategy proves to significantly increase the ionic and electronic conductivity of NVPF even at extreme conditions, delivering outstanding electrochemical performance and paving the way for advanced high-potential cathode materials.

Keywords: sodium-ion batteries, cathode materials, NASICON, Na3V2(PO4)2F3, Ion doping

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Authors: Helida Thays Gomes Soares, Conceicao De Maria Pinheiro Correia, Fabiano Maciel Soares, Kleymer Silva

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There is great discussion around populational increase in urban areas of the global south, and, consequently, the growth of inappropriate housing and the different ways humans have found to solve housing problems around the world. Sao Luís, the capital of the state of Maranhao is a good example. The 1.6 million inhabitant metropole is a colonial tropical city that shelters 22% of the population of Maranhão, brazilian state that still carries the scars of slavery in past centuries. In 2016, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistic found that 20% of Maranhão’s inhabitants were living in houses with external walls made of non-durable materials, like recycled wood, cardboard or soil. Out of this problematic, this study aims to propose interventions not only in the physical structure of irregular housing, but also to serve as a guide to intervene in the way eco-friendly, communitarian housing is seen by extreme poor zones inside metropolitan regions around big cities in the global south. The adaptation and reuse of industrial containers from the Harbor of Itaqui for housing is also an aim of the project. The great volume of discarded industrial containers may be an opportunity to solve housing deficit in the city. That way, through field research in São Luís’ neighborhoods mostly occupied by inappropriate housing, the study intends to raise ethnographical and physical values that help to shape new uses of industrial containers and recycled building materials, bringing the community into the process of shaping new-housing for local housing programs, changing the mindset of a concrete/brick model of building. The study used a general feasibility analysis of local engineers regarding strength of the locally used container for construction purposes, and also researched in-loco the current impressions of risky areas inhabitants of housing, traditional housing and the role they played as city shapers, evaluating their perceptions of what means to live and how their houses represent their personality.

Keywords: container housing, civil construction, housing deficit, participatory design, sustainability

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Authors: Morteza Esfandiari, Shabnam Jabari, Heather MacGrath, David Coleman

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Flood is a severe issue in different places in the world as well as the city of Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada. The downtown area of Fredericton is close to the Saint John River, which is susceptible to flood around May every year. Recently, the frequency of flooding seems to be increased, especially after the fact that the downtown area and surrounding urban/agricultural lands got flooded in two consecutive years in 2018 and 2019. In order to have an explicit vision of flood span and damage to affected areas, it is necessary to use either flood inundation modelling or satellite data. Due to contingent availability and weather dependency of optical satellites, and limited existing data for the high cost of hydrodynamic models, it is not always feasible to rely on these sources of data to generate quality flood maps after or during the catastrophe. Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND), a state-of-the-art topo-hydrological index, normalizes the height of a basin based on the relative elevation along with the stream network and specifies the gravitational or the relative drainage potential of an area. HAND is a relative height difference between the stream network and each cell on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM). The stream layer is provided through a multi-step, time-consuming process which does not always result in an optimal representation of the river centerline depending on the topographic complexity of that region. HAND is used in numerous case studies with quite acceptable and sometimes unexpected results because of natural and human-made features on the surface of the earth. Some of these features might cause a disturbance in the generated model, and consequently, the model might not be able to predict the flow simulation accurately. We propose to include a previously existing stream layer generated by the province of New Brunswick and benefit from culvert maps to improve the water flow simulation and accordingly the accuracy of HAND model. By considering these parameters in our processing, we were able to increase the accuracy of the model from nearly 74% to almost 92%. The improved model can be used for generating highly accurate flood maps, which is necessary for future urban planning and flood damage estimation without any need for satellite imagery or hydrodynamic computations.

Keywords: HAND, DTM, rapid floodplain, simplified conceptual models

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Authors: Jaehoon Ha, Byungmo Kang, Kilho Hong, Jungsoo Park

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Electro-optical (EO) stabilized platforms have been widely used for surveillance and reconnaissance on various types of vehicles, from surface ships to unmanned air vehicles (UAVs). EO stabilized platforms usually consist of an assembly of structure, bearings, and motors called gimbals in which a gyroscope is installed. EO elements such as a CCD camera and IR camera, are mounted to a gimbal, which has a range of motion in elevation and azimuth and can designate and track a target. In addition, a laser range finder (LRF) can be added to the gimbal in order to acquire the precise slant range from the platform to the target. Recently, a versatile functionality of target localization is needed in order to cooperate with the weapon systems that are mounted on the same platform. The target information, such as its location or velocity, needed to be more accurate. The accuracy of the target information depends on diverse component errors and alignment errors of each component. Specially, the type of moving platform can affect the accuracy of the target information. In the case of flying platforms, or UAVs, the target location error can be increased with altitude so it is important to measure altitude as precisely as possible. In the case of surface ships, target location error can be increased with obliqueness of the elevation angle of the gimbal since the altitude of the EO stabilized platform is supposed to be relatively low. The farther the slant ranges from the surface ship to the target, the more extreme the obliqueness of the elevation angle. This can hamper the precise acquisition of the target information. So far, there have been many studies on EO stabilized platforms of flying vehicles. However, few researchers have focused on ship-borne EO stabilized platforms of the surface ship. In this paper, we deal with a target localization method when an EO stabilized platform is located on the mast of a surface ship. Especially, we need to overcome the limitation caused by the obliqueness of the elevation angle of the gimbal. We introduce a well-known approach for target localization using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) and present the problem definition showing the above-mentioned limitation. Finally, we want to show the effectiveness of the approach that will be demonstrated through computer simulations.

Keywords: target localization, ship-borne electro-optical stabilized platform, unscented kalman filter

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Authors: Aadita Chaudhury

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Since at least the early 2000s, DNA profiling has achieved a preeminent status in forensic investigations into criminal acts. While the criminal justice system has a long history of using forensic evidence and testing them through establish technoscientific means, the primacy of DNA in establishing 'truth' or reconstructing a series of events is unparalleled in the history of forensic science. This paper seeks to elucidate the ways in which DNA profiling has become the most authoritative instrument of 'truth' in criminal investigations, and how it is used in the legal process to ascertain culpability, create the notion of infallible evidence, and advance the search for justice. It is argued that DNA profiling has created a paradigm shift in how the legal system and the general public understands crime and culpability, but not without limitations. There are indications that even trace amounts of DNA evidence can point to causal links in a criminal investigation, however, there still remains many rooms to create confusion and doubt from empirical evidence within the narrative of crimes. Many of the shortcomings of DNA-based forensic investigations are explored and evaluated with regards to claims of the authority of biological evidence and implications for the public understanding of the elusive concepts of truth and justice in the present era. Public misinformation about the forensic analysis processes could produce doubt or faith in the judgements rooted in them, depending on other variables presented at the trial. A positivist understanding of forensic science that is shared by the majority of the population does not take into consideration that DNA evidence is far from definitive, and can be used to support any theories of culpability, to create doubt and to deflect blame.

Keywords: DNA profiling, epistemology of forensic science, philosophy of forensic science, sociology of scientific knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Alireza Abbassi Monjezi, Mohammad Hasan Shaheed

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Flood, caused by excessive rainfall, monsoon, cyclone and tsunami is a common disaster in many countries of the world especially sea connected low-lying countries. A stand-alone self-powered water filtration module for decontamination of floodwater has been designed and modeled. A combination forward osmosis – low pressure reverse osmosis (FO-LPRO) system powered by solar photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) energy is investigated which could overcome the main barriers to water supply for remote areas and ensure off-grid filtration. The proposed system is designed to be small scale and portable to provide on-site potable water to communities that are no longer themselves mobile nor can be reached quickly by the aid agencies. FO is an osmotically driven process that uses osmotic pressure gradients to drive water across a controlled pore membrane from a feed solution (low osmotic pressure) to a draw solution (high osmotic pressure). This drops the demand for high hydraulic pressures and therefore the energy demand. There is also a tendency for lower fouling, easier fouling layer removal and higher water recovery. In addition, the efficiency of the PVT unit will be maximized through freshwater cooling which is integrated into the system. A filtration module with the capacity of 5 m3/day is modeled to treat floodwater and provide drinking water. The module can be used as a tool for disaster relief, particularly in the aftermath of flood and tsunami events.

Keywords: flood resilience, membrane desalination, portable water treatment, solar energy

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Authors: Maedeh Pourmajidian, Joseph R. McDermid

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Advanced High Strength Steels are revolutionizing both the steel and automotive industries due to their high specific strength and ability to absorb energy during crash events. This allows manufacturers to design vehicles with significantly increased fuel efficiency without compromising passenger safety. To maintain the structural integrity of the fabricated parts, they must be protected from corrosion damage through continuous hot-dip galvanizing process, which is challenging due to selective oxidation of Mn and Si on the surface of this AHSSs. The effects of process atmosphere oxygen partial pressure and small additions of Sn on the selective oxidation of a medium-Mn C-6Mn-2Si advanced high strength steel was investigated. Intercritical annealing heat treatments were carried out at 690˚C in an N2-5%H2 process atmosphere under dew points ranging from –50˚C to +5˚C. Surface oxide chemistries, morphologies, and thicknesses were determined at a variety of length scales by several techniques, including SEM, TEM+EELS, and XPS. TEM observations of the sample cross-sections revealed the transition to internal oxidation at the +5˚C dew point. EELS results suggested that the internal oxides network was composed of a multi-layer oxide structure with varying chemistry from oxide core towards the outer part. The combined effect of employing a known surface active element as a function of process atmosphere on the surface structure development and the possible impact on reactive wetting of the steel substrates by the continuous galvanizing zinc bath will be discussed.

Keywords: 3G AHSS, hot-dip galvanizing, oxygen partial pressure, selective oxidation

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Authors: V. Linfante

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Catwalks are one of the key moments in fashion: the first and most relevant display where brands stage their collections, products, ideas, and style. The garment is 'the star' of the catwalk and must show itself not just as a product but as a result of a design process endured for several months. All contents developed within this process become ingredients for connecting scenography, music, lights, and direction into a unique fashion narrative. According to the spirit of different ages, fashion shows have been transformed and shaped into peculiar formats: from Pandoras to presentations organized by Parisian couturiers, across the 'marathons' typical of the beginning of modern fashion system, coming up to the present structure of fashion weeks, with their complex organization and related creative and technical businesses. The paper intends to introduce the evolution of the fashion system through its unique process of seasonally staging and showing its production. The paper intends to analyse the evolution of the fashion shows from the intimacy of ballrooms at the beginning of the 20th century, passing through the enthusiasm attitude typical from the '70s and the '80s, to finally depict our present. In this last scenario, catwalks are not anymore a standard collections presentation but become one of the most exciting expression of contemporary culture (and sub-cultures), going from sophisticated performances (as Karl Lagerfeld's Chanel shows) to real artistic happenings (as the events of Victor&Rolf, Alexander McQueen, OFF_WHITE, Vetements, and Martin Margiela), often involving contemporary architecture, digital world, technology, social media, performing art and artists.

Keywords: branding, communication, fashion, new media, performing art

Procedia PDF Downloads 132