Search results for: bi-level optimization model
16754 Optimization and Analysis of Heat Recovery System on Gas Complex Turbo Generators
Authors: Ensieh Hajeb, Hefzollah Mohammadiyan, Mohamad Baqer Heidari
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In this paper layout plans and determine the best place to install a heat recovery boilers , gas turbines , and simulation models built to evaluate the performance of the design and operating conditions, heat recovery boiler design using model built on the basis of operating conditions , the effect of various parameters on the performance of the designed heat recovery boiler , heat recovery boiler installation was designed to evaluate the technical and economic impact on performance would be Turbo generator. Given the importance of this issue, that is the main goal of economic efficiency and reduces costs; this project has been implemented similar plans in which the target is implementation specific patterns. The project will also help us in the process of gas refineries and the actual efficiency of the process after adding a system to analyze the turbine and predict potential problems and how to fix them and appropriate measures according to the results of simulation analysis and results of the process gain. The results of modeling and the effect of different parameters on this line, the software has been ThermoFlow.Keywords: boiler, gas turbine, turbo generator, power flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 41416753 Numerical Investigation of Wastewater Rheological Characteristics on Flow Field Inside a Sewage Network
Authors: Seyed-Mohammad-Kazem Emami, Behrang Saki, Majid Mohammadian
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The wastewater flow field inside a sewage network including pipe and manhole was investigated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model. The numerical model is developed by incorporating a rheological model to calculate the viscosity of wastewater fluid by means of open source toolbox OpenFOAM. The rheological properties of prepared wastewater fluid suspensions are first measured using a BrookField LVDVII Pro+ viscometer with an enhanced UL adapter and then correlated the suitable rheological viscosity model values from the measured rheological properties. The results show the significant effects of rheological characteristics of wastewater fluid on the flow domain of sewer system. Results were compared and discussed with the commonly used Newtonian model to evaluate the differences for velocity profile, pressure and shear stress. Keywords: Non-Newtonian flows, Wastewater, Numerical simulation, Rheology, Sewage Network
Procedia PDF Downloads 13116752 Effects of the Air Supply Outlets Geometry on Human Comfort inside Living Rooms: CFD vs. ADPI
Authors: Taher M. Abou-deif, Esmail M. El-Bialy, Essam E. Khalil
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The paper is devoted to numerically investigating the influence of the air supply outlets geometry on human comfort inside living looms. A computational fluid dynamics model is developed to examine the air flow characteristics of a room with different supply air diffusers. The work focuses on air flow patterns, thermal behavior in the room with few number of occupants. As an input to the full-scale 3-D room model, a 2-D air supply diffuser model that supplies direction and magnitude of air flow into the room is developed. Air distribution effect on thermal comfort parameters was investigated depending on changing the air supply diffusers type, angles and velocity. Air supply diffusers locations and numbers were also investigated. The pre-processor Gambit is used to create the geometric model with parametric features. Commercially available simulation software “Fluent 6.3” is incorporated to solve the differential equations governing the conservation of mass, three momentum and energy in the processing of air flow distribution. Turbulence effects of the flow are represented by the well-developed two equation turbulence model. In this work, the so-called standard k-ε turbulence model, one of the most widespread turbulence models for industrial applications, was utilized. Basic parameters included in this work are air dry bulb temperature, air velocity, relative humidity and turbulence parameters are used for numerical predictions of indoor air distribution and thermal comfort. The thermal comfort predictions through this work were based on ADPI (Air Diffusion Performance Index),the PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) model and the PPD (Percentage People Dissatisfied) model, the PMV and PPD were estimated using Fanger’s model.Keywords: thermal comfort, Fanger's model, ADPI, energy effeciency
Procedia PDF Downloads 41016751 Modelling of Pervaporation Separation of Butanol from Aqueous Solutions Using Polydimethylsiloxane Mixed Matrix Membranes
Authors: Arian Ebneyamini, Hoda Azimi, Jules Thibaults, F. Handan Tezel
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In this study, a modification of Hennepe model for pervaporation separation of butanol from aqueous solutions using Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) mixed matrix membranes has been introduced and validated by experimental data. The model was compared to the original Hennepe model and few other models which are applicable for membrane gas separation processes such as Maxwell, Lewis Nielson and Pal. Theoretical modifications for non-ideal interface morphology have been offered to predict the permeability in case of interface void, interface rigidification and pore-blockage. The model was in a good agreement with experimental data.Keywords: butanol, PDMS, modeling, pervaporation, mixed matrix membranes
Procedia PDF Downloads 22116750 Estimation of the Pore Electrical Conductivity Using Dielectric Sensors
Authors: Fethi Bouksila, Magnus Persson, Ronny Berndtsson, Akissa Bahri
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Under salinity conditions, we evaluate the performance of Hilhost (2000) model to predict pore electrical conductivity ECp from dielectric permittivity and bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) using Time and Frequency Domain Reflectometry sensors (TDR, FDR). Using FDR_WET sensor, RMSE of ECp was 4.15 dS m-1. By replacing the standard soil parameter (K0) in Hilhost model by K0-ECa relationship, the RMSE of ECp decreased to 0.68 dS m-1. WET sensor could give similar accuracy to estimate ECp than TDR if calibrated values of K0 were used instead of standard values in Hilhost model.Keywords: hilhost model, soil salinity, time domain reflectometry, frequency domain reflectometry, dielectric methods
Procedia PDF Downloads 13516749 Data Model to Predict Customize Skin Care Product Using Biosensor
Authors: Ashi Gautam, Isha Shukla, Akhil Seghal
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Biosensors are analytical devices that use a biological sensing element to detect and measure a specific chemical substance or biomolecule in a sample. These devices are widely used in various fields, including medical diagnostics, environmental monitoring, and food analysis, due to their high specificity, sensitivity, and selectivity. In this research paper, a machine learning model is proposed for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings. The proposed model takes in features extracted from biosensor readings, such as biomarker concentration, skin hydration level, inflammation presence, sensitivity, and free radicals, and outputs the most appropriate skin care product for an individual. This model is trained on a dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model's performance is evaluated using several metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. The aim of this research is to develop a personalised skin care product recommendation system using biosensor data. By leveraging the power of machine learning, the proposed model can accurately predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. This is particularly useful in the skin care industry, where personalised recommendations can lead to better outcomes for consumers. The developed model is based on supervised learning, which means that it is trained on a labeled dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model uses these labeled data to learn patterns and relationships between the biosensor readings and skin care products. Once trained, the model can predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The results of this study show that the proposed machine learning model can accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The evaluation metrics used in this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the model in predicting skin care products. This model has significant potential for practical use in the skin care industry for personalised skin care product recommendations. The proposed machine learning model for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings is a promising development in the skin care industry. The model's ability to accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings can lead to better outcomes for consumers. Further research can be done to improve the model's accuracy and effectiveness.Keywords: biosensors, data model, machine learning, skin care
Procedia PDF Downloads 9716748 An Equivalent Circuit Model Approach for Battery Pack Simulation in a Hybrid Electric Vehicle System Powertrain
Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka
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The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model
Procedia PDF Downloads 29816747 4P-Model of Information Terrorism
Authors: Nataliya Venelinova
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The paper proposes a new interdisciplinary model of reconsidering the role of mass communication effects by coverage of terrorism. The idea of 4P model is based on the synergy, created by the information strategy of threat, predominantly used by terrorist groups, the effects of mediating the symbolic action of the terrorist attacks or the taking of responsibility of any attacks, and the reshaped public perception for security after the attacks being mass communicated. The paper defines the mass communication cycle of terrorism, which leads not only to re-agenda setting of the societies, but also spirally amplifying the effect of propagating fears by over-informing on terrorism attacks. This finally results in the outlining of the so called 4P-model of information terrorism: mass propaganda, panic, paranoia and pandemic.Keywords: information terrorism, mass communication cycle, public perception, security
Procedia PDF Downloads 17316746 On Disaggregation and Consolidation of Imperfect Quality Shipments in an Extended EPQ Model
Authors: Hung-Chi Chang
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For an extended EPQ model with random yield, the existent study revealed that both the disaggregating and consolidating shipment policies for the imperfect quality items are independent of holding cost, and recommended a model with economic benefit by comparing the least total cost for each of the three models investigated. To better capture the real situation, we generalize the existent study to include different holding costs for perfect and imperfect quality items. Through analysis, we show that the above shipment policies are dependent on holding costs. Furthermore, we derive a simple decision rule solely based on the thresholds of problem parameters to select a superior model. The results are illustrated analytically and numerically.Keywords: consolidating shipments, disaggregating shipments, EPQ, imperfect quality, inventory
Procedia PDF Downloads 37616745 Composite Forecasts Accuracy for Automobile Sales in Thailand
Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol
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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements
Procedia PDF Downloads 36216744 Kinetic Modelling of Fermented Probiotic Beverage from Enzymatically Extracted Annona Muricata Fruit
Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Ambindei Agwanande, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha
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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1 as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated, and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics
Procedia PDF Downloads 8216743 Achieving Process Stability through Automation and Process Optimization at H Blast Furnace Tata Steel, Jamshedpur
Authors: Krishnendu Mukhopadhyay, Subhashis Kundu, Mayank Tiwari, Sameeran Pani, Padmapal, Uttam Singh
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Blast Furnace is a counter current process where burden descends from top and hot gases ascend from bottom and chemically reduce iron oxides into liquid hot metal. One of the major problems of blast furnace operation is the erratic burden descent inside furnace. Sometimes this problem is so acute that burden descent stops resulting in Hanging and instability of the furnace. This problem is very frequent in blast furnaces worldwide and results in huge production losses. This situation becomes more adverse when blast furnaces are operated at low coke rate and high coal injection rate with adverse raw materials like high alumina ore and high coke ash. For last three years, H-Blast Furnace Tata Steel was able to reduce coke rate from 450 kg/thm to 350 kg/thm with an increase in coal injection to 200 kg/thm which are close to world benchmarks and expand profitability. To sustain this regime, elimination of irregularities of blast furnace like hanging, channeling, and scaffolding is very essential. In this paper, sustaining of zero hanging spell for consecutive three years with low coke rate operation by improvement in burden characteristics, burden distribution, changes in slag regime, casting practices and adequate automation of the furnace operation has been illustrated. Models have been created to comprehend and upgrade the blast furnace process understanding. A model has been developed to predict the process of maintaining slag viscosity in desired range to attain proper burden permeability. A channeling prediction model has also been developed to understand channeling symptoms so that early actions can be initiated. The models have helped to a great extent in standardizing the control decisions of operators at H-Blast Furnace of Tata Steel, Jamshedpur and thus achieving process stability for last three years.Keywords: hanging, channelling, blast furnace, coke
Procedia PDF Downloads 19516742 Uncertainty of the Brazilian Earth System Model for Solar Radiation
Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini
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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 25016741 An Empirical Investigation of Mobile Banking Services Adoption in Pakistan
Authors: Aijaz A. Shaikh, Richard Glavee-Geo, Heikki Karjaluoto
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Adoption of Information Systems (IS) is receiving increasing attention such that its implications have been closely monitored and studied by the IS management community, industry and professional gatekeepers. Building on previous research regarding the adoption of technology, this paper develops and validates an integrated model of the adoption of mobile banking. The model originates from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). This paper intends to offer a preliminary scrutiny of the antecedents of the adoption of mobile banking services in the context of a developing country. Data was collected from Pakistan. The findings showed that an integrated TAM and TPB model greatly explains the adoption intention of mobile banking; and perceived behavioural control and its antecedents play a significant role in predicting adoption Theoretical and managerial implications of findings are presented and discussed.Keywords: developing country, mobile banking service adoption, technology acceptance model, theory of planned behavior
Procedia PDF Downloads 41916740 A Type-2 Fuzzy Model for Link Prediction in Social Network
Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi
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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets
Procedia PDF Downloads 32616739 An Empirical Dynamic Fuel Cell Model Used for Power System Verification in Aerospace
Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel
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In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, real time emulation, testing
Procedia PDF Downloads 33616738 Three-Dimensional Numerical Model of an Earth Air Heat Exchanger under a Constrained Urban Environment in India: Modeling and Validation
Authors: V. Rangarajan, Priyanka Kaushal
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This study investigates the effectiveness of a typical Earth Air Heat Exchanger (EATHE) for energy efficient space cooling in an urban environment typified by space and soil-related constraints that preclude an optimal design. It involves the development of a three-dimensional numerical transient model that is validated by measurements at a live site in India. It is found that the model accurately predicts the soil temperatures at various depths as well as the EATHE outlet air temperature. The study shows that such an EATHE, even when designed under constraints, does provide effective space cooling especially during the hot months of the year.Keywords: earth air heat exchanger (EATHE), India, MATLAB, model, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 32216737 The Role of Uncertainty in the Integration of Environmental Parameters in Energy System Modeling
Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid
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Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 8316736 Urban Design via Estimation Model for Traffic Index of Cities Based on an Artificial Intelligence
Authors: Seyed Sobhan Alvani, Mohammad Gohari
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By developing cities and increasing the population, traffic congestion has become a vital problem. Due to this crisis, urban designers try to present solutions to decrease this difficulty. On the other hand, predicting the model with perfect accuracy is essential for solution-providing. The current study presents a model based on artificial intelligence which can predict traffic index based on city population, growth rate, and area. The accuracy of the model was evaluated, which is acceptable and it is around 90%. Thus, urban designers and planners can employ it for predicting traffic index in the future to provide strategies.Keywords: traffic index, population growth rate, cities wideness, artificial neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 4016735 Multi Objective Simultaneous Assembly Line Balancing and Buffer Sizing
Authors: Saif Ullah, Guan Zailin, Xu Xianhao, He Zongdong, Wang Baoxi
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Assembly line balancing problem is aimed to divide the tasks among the stations in assembly lines and optimize some objectives. In assembly lines the workload on stations is different from each other due to different tasks times and the difference in workloads between stations can cause blockage or starvation in some stations in assembly lines. Buffers are used to store the semi-finished parts between the stations and can help to smooth the assembly production. The assembly line balancing and buffer sizing problem can affect the throughput of the assembly lines. Assembly line balancing and buffer sizing problems have been studied separately in literature and due to their collective contribution in throughput rate of assembly lines, balancing and buffer sizing problem are desired to study simultaneously and therefore they are considered concurrently in current research. Current research is aimed to maximize throughput, minimize total size of buffers in assembly line and minimize workload variations in assembly line simultaneously. A multi objective optimization objective is designed which can give better Pareto solutions from the Pareto front and a simple example problem is solved for assembly line balancing and buffer sizing simultaneously. Current research is significant for assembly line balancing research and it can be significant to introduce optimization approaches which can optimize current multi objective problem in future.Keywords: assembly line balancing, buffer sizing, Pareto solutions
Procedia PDF Downloads 49116734 Frailty Models for Modeling Heterogeneity: Simulation Study and Application to Quebec Pension Plan
Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem
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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study
Procedia PDF Downloads 35916733 The Non-Stationary BINARMA(1,1) Process with Poisson Innovations: An Application on Accident Data
Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer
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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML
Procedia PDF Downloads 12916732 Approximate Spring Balancing for Swimming Pool Lift Mechanism to Reduce Actuator Torque
Authors: Apurva Patil, Sujatha Srinivasan
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Reducing actuator loads is important for applications in which human effort is required for actuation. The potential benefit of applying spring balancing to rehabilitation devices which work against gravity on a nonhorizontal plane is well recognized, but practical applications have been elusive. Although existing methods provide exact spring balance, they require additional masses or auxiliary links, or all the springs used originate from the ground, which makes the resulting device bulky and space-inefficient. This paper uses a method of static balancing of mechanisms with conservative loads such as gravity and spring loads using non-zero-free-length springs and no auxiliary links. Application of this method to a manually operated swimming pool lift mechanism which lowers and raises the physically challenged users into or out of the swimming pool is presented here. Various possible configurations using extension and compression springs as well as gas spring in the mechanism are compared. This work involves approximate spring balancing of the mechanism using minimization of potential energy variance. It uses the approach of flattening the potential energy distribution over the workspace and fuses it with numerical optimization. The results show the considerable reduction in actuator torque requirement with practical spring design and arrangement. Although the method provides only an approximate balancing, it is versatile, flexible in choosing appropriate control variables that are relevant to the design problem and easy to implement. The true potential of this technique lies in the fact that it uses a very simple optimization to find the spring constant, free length of the spring and the optimal attachment points subject to the optimization constraints. Also, it uses physically realizable non-zero-free-length springs directly, thereby reducing the complexity involved in simulating zero-free-length springs from non-zero-free-length springs. This method allows springs to be attached inside the mechanism, which makes the implementation of spring balancing practical. Because auxiliary linkages can be avoided, the resultant swimming pool lift mechanism is compact. The cost benefits and reduced complexity can be significant advantages in the development of this user-actuated swimming pool lift for developing countries.Keywords: gas spring, rehabilitation device, spring balancing, swimming pool lift
Procedia PDF Downloads 24116731 An Efficient Algorithm for Solving the Transmission Network Expansion Planning Problem Integrating Machine Learning with Mathematical Decomposition
Authors: Pablo Oteiza, Ricardo Alvarez, Mehrdad Pirnia, Fuat Can
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To effectively combat climate change, many countries around the world have committed to a decarbonisation of their electricity, along with promoting a large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES). While this trend represents a unique opportunity to effectively combat climate change, achieving a sound and cost-efficient energy transition towards low-carbon power systems poses significant challenges for the multi-year Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) problem. The objective of the multi-year TNEP is to determine the necessary network infrastructure to supply the projected demand in a cost-efficient way, considering the evolution of the new generation mix, including the integration of RES. The rapid integration of large-scale RES increases the variability and uncertainty in the power system operation, which in turn increases short-term flexibility requirements. To meet these requirements, flexible generating technologies such as energy storage systems must be considered within the TNEP as well, along with proper models for capturing the operational challenges of future power systems. As a consequence, TNEP formulations are becoming more complex and difficult to solve, especially for its application in realistic-sized power system models. To meet these challenges, there is an increasing need for developing efficient algorithms capable of solving the TNEP problem with reasonable computational time and resources. In this regard, a promising research area is the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for solving large-scale mixed-integer optimization problems, such as the TNEP. In particular, the use of AI along with mathematical optimization strategies based on decomposition has shown great potential. In this context, this paper presents an efficient algorithm for solving the multi-year TNEP problem. The algorithm combines AI techniques with Column Generation, a traditional decomposition-based mathematical optimization method. One of the challenges of using Column Generation for solving the TNEP problem is that the subproblems are of mixed-integer nature, and therefore solving them requires significant amounts of time and resources. Hence, in this proposal we solve a linearly relaxed version of the subproblems, and trained a binary classifier that determines the value of the binary variables, based on the results obtained from the linearized version. A key feature of the proposal is that we integrate the binary classifier into the optimization algorithm in such a way that the optimality of the solution can be guaranteed. The results of a study case based on the HRP 38-bus test system shows that the binary classifier has an accuracy above 97% for estimating the value of the binary variables. Since the linearly relaxed version of the subproblems can be solved with significantly less time than the integer programming counterpart, the integration of the binary classifier into the Column Generation algorithm allowed us to reduce the computational time required for solving the problem by 50%. The final version of this paper will contain a detailed description of the proposed algorithm, the AI-based binary classifier technique and its integration into the CG algorithm. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposal, we evaluate the algorithm in case studies with different scenarios, as well as in other power system models.Keywords: integer optimization, machine learning, mathematical decomposition, transmission planning
Procedia PDF Downloads 8516730 The Discriminate Analysis and Relevant Model for Mapping Export Potential
Authors: Jana Gutierez Chvalkovska, Michal Mejstrik, Matej Urban
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There are pending discussions over the mapping of country export potential in order to refocus export strategy of firms and its evidence-based promotion by the Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and other permitted vehicles of governments. In this paper we develop our version of an applied model that offers “stepwise” elimination of unattractive markets. We modify and calibrate the model for the particular features of the Czech Republic and specific pilot cases where we apply an individual approach to each sector.Keywords: export strategy, modeling export, calibration, export promotion
Procedia PDF Downloads 49816729 Control of an SIR Model for Basic Reproduction Number Regulation
Authors: Enrique Barbieri
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The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread
Procedia PDF Downloads 11116728 Open Innovation Strategy (OIS) Paradigm and an OIS Capabilities Model
Authors: Anastasis D. Petrou
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Innovation and strategy discussions do highlight open innovation as a new paradigm in business. Yet, a number of stumbling blocks in the form of closed innovation principles weaved into the fabric of a traditional business model stand in the way of the new paradigm’s momentum to increase value in various business contexts. The paper argues that businesses considering an engagement with the open innovation paradigm would need to take steps to improve their multiplicative, absorptive and relational capabilities, respectively. The needed improvements would amount to a business model evolutionary transformation and eventually bring about a paradigm overhaul in business. The transformation is worth staging over time to ensure that open innovation is developed across interconnected and partnered areas of strategic importance. This article develops an open innovation strategy (OIS) capabilities model, and employs examples from different industries to briefly discuss OIS’s potential to augment business value in a number of suggested areas for future research.Keywords: close innovation, open innovation paradigm, open innovation strategy (OIS) paradigm, OIS capabilities model, multiplicative capability, absorptive capability, relational capability
Procedia PDF Downloads 52016727 Developing a Comprehensive Green Building Rating System Tailored for Nigeria: Analyzing International Sustainable Rating Systems to Create Environmentally Responsible Standards for the Nigerian Construction Industry and Built Environment
Authors: Azeez Balogun
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Inexperienced building score practices are continually evolving and vary across areas. Yet, a few middle ideas stay steady, such as website selection, design, energy efficiency, water and material conservation, indoor environmental great, operational optimization, and waste discount. The essence of green building lies inside the optimization of 1 or more of those standards. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of 7 extensively recognized sustainable score structures—BREEAM, CASBEE, green GLOBES, inexperienced superstar, HK-BEAM, IGBC green homes, and LEED—based totally on the perceptions and opinions of stakeholders in Nigeria certified in green constructing rating systems. The purpose is to pick out and adopt an appropriate green building rating device for Nigeria. Numerous components of those systems had been tested to determine the high-quality health of the Nigerian built environment. The findings imply that LEED, the important machine within the USA and Canada, is the most suitable for Nigeria due to its sturdy basis, extensive funding, and confirmed blessings. LEED obtained the highest rating of eighty out of one hundred points on this assessment.Keywords: structure, built surroundings, inexperienced building score gadget, Nigeria Inexperienced Constructing Council, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 2816726 Application of Bacteriophage and Essential Oil to Enhance Photocatalytic Efficiency
Authors: Myriam Ben Said, Dhekra Trabelsi, Faouzi Achouri, Marwa Ben Saad, Latifa Bousselmi, Ahmed Ghrabi
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This present study suggests the use of biological and natural bactericide, cheap, safe to handle, natural, environmentally benign agents to enhance the conventional wastewater treatment process. In the same sense, to highlight the enhancement of wastewater photocatalytic treatability, we were used virulent bacteriophage(s) and essential oils (EOs). The pre-phago-treatment of wastewater with lytic phage(s), leads to a decrease in bacterial density and, consequently, limits the establishment of intercellular communication (QS), thus preventing biofilm formation and inhibiting the expression of other virulence factors after photocatalysis. Moreover, to increase the photocatalytic efficiency, we were added to the secondary treated wastewater 1/1000 (w/v) of EO of thyme (T. vulgaris). This EO showed in vitro an anti-biofilm activity through the inhibition of plonctonic cell mobility and their attachment on an inert surface and also the deterioration of the sessile structure. The presence of photoactivatable molecules (photosensitizes) in this type of oil allows the optimization of photocatalytic efficiency without hazards relayed to dyes and chemicals reagent. The use of ‘biological and natural tools’ in combination with usual water treatment process can be considered as a safety procedure to reduce and/or to prevent the recontamination of treated water and also to prevent the re-expression of virulent factors by pathogenic bacteria such as biofilm formation with friendly processes.Keywords: biofilm, essential oil, optimization, phage, photocatalysis, wastewater
Procedia PDF Downloads 15416725 Electricity Demand Modeling and Forecasting in Singapore
Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh
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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 640