Search results for: long-term variability and trends

Authors: Radoslaw Lukasz Staniszewski

Abstract:

The aim of the research was to verify lateral extent and thickness variability of individual limestone layers within early-Jurassic medium- and thick-bedded limestone interbedded with marlstones. Location: The main research area is located in the south-central part of Poland in the south-western part of Permo-Mesozoic margin of the Holy Cross Mountains. It includes outcroppings located on the line between Mieczyn and Wola Morawicka. The analyses were carried out on six profiles (Mieczyn, Gniezdziska, Tokarnia, Wola Morawicka, Morawica and Wolica) representing three early-Jurassic links: Jasna Gora layers, grey limestone, Morawica limestone. Additionally, an attempt was made to correlate the thickness sequence from the Holy Cross Mountains to the profile from the quarry in Zawodzie located 3 km east of Czestochowa. The distance between the outermost profiles is 122 km in a straight line. Methodology of research: The Callovian-Oxfordian border was taken as the reference point during the correlation. At the same time, ammonite-based stratigraphic studies were carried out, which allowed to identify individual packages in the remote outcroppings. The analysis of data collected during fieldwork was mainly devoted to the correlation of thickness sequences of limestone layers in subsequent profiles. In order to check the objectivity of the subsequent outcroppings, the profiles have been presented in the form of the thickness functions of the subsequent layers. The generated functions were auto-correlated, and the Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated. The next step in the research was to statistically determine the percentage increment of the individual layers thickness in the subsequent profiles, and on this basis to plot the function of relative carbonate productivity. Results: The result of the above-mentioned procedures consists in illustrating the extent of 34 rock layers across the examined area in demonstrating the repeatability of their success in subsequent outcroppings. It can also be observed that the thickness of individual layers in the Holy Cross Mountains is increasing from north-west towards south-east. Despite changes in the thickness of the layers in the profiles, their relations within the sequence remain constant. The lowest matching ratio of thickness sequence calculated using the Pearson correlation coefficient formula is 0.67, while the highest is 0.84. The thickness of individual layers changes between 4% and 230% over the examined area. Interpretation: Layers in the outcroppings covered by the research show continuity throughout the examined area and it is possible to precisely correlate them, which means that the process determining the formation of the layers was regional and probably included both the fringe of the Holy Cross Mountains and the north-eastern part of the Krakow-Czestochowa Jura Upland. Local changes in the sedimentation environment affecting the productivity of the subtidal carbonate factory only cause the thickness of the layers to change without altering the thickness proportions of the profiles. Based on the percentage of changes in the thickness of individual layers in the subsequent profiles, it can be concluded that the local productivity of the subtidal carbonate factory is increasing logarithmically.

Keywords: Oxfordian, Holy Cross Mountains, carbonate factory, Limestone

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Authors: Jasna Hrncic

Abstract:

Poor family relations predict depression, but also to other mental health issues. Mediating effect of self-efficacy and differentiation of self and moderating effect of decreased accessibility and/or success of other adaptive and defensive mechanisms for overcoming social disadvantages could explain depression as a specific outcome of dysfunctional family relations. The present study analyzes the mediation effect of self-efficacy and differentiation of self from poor family functioning to depressive symptoms and the moderation effect of deprivation of liberty on the listed mediation effect. Deprivation of liberty has, as a general consequence, a decreased accessibility and/or success of many adaptive and defensive mechanisms. It is hypothesized that: 1) self-efficacy and differentiation of self will mediate between family functioning and depressiveness in the total sample, and 2) deprivation of liberty will moderate the stated relations. Cross-sectional study was conducted among 323 male juveniles in Serbia divided in three groups: 98 adolescents deprived of their liberty due to antisocial behavior (incarcerated antisocial group - IAG), 121 adolescents with antisocial behavior in their natural setting (antisocial control group - CAG) and 105 adolescents in general population (general control group - CGG). The CAG was included along with GCG to control the possible influence that comorbidity of antisocial behavior and depressiveness could have on results. Instruments for family relations assessment were: for a whole family of origin the emotional exchange scale and individuation scale from GRADIR by Knezevic, and for a relationship with mother PCS-YSR and CRPBI by barber, and intimacy, rejection, sacrifice, punishment, demands, control and internal control by Opacic and Kos. Differentiation of self (DOS) is measured by emotional self scale (Opacic), self-efficacy (SE) by general incompetence scale by Bezinovic, and depression by BDI (Back), CES-D (Radloff) and D6R (Momirovic). Two-path structural equation modeling based on most commonly reported fit indices, showed that the mediation model had unfavorable fit to our data for total sample [(χ2 (1, N = 324) = 13.73); RMSEA= .20 (90% CI= [.12, .30]); CFI= .98; NFI= .97; AIC=31.73]. Path model provided an adequate fit to the data only for AIG - and not to the data from ACG and GCG. SE and DOS mediated the relationship between PFF and depressiveness. Test of the indirect effects revealed that 23.85% of PFF influences on depressiveness is mediated by these two mediators (the quotient of mediated effect = .24). Test of specific indirect effects showed that SE mediates 22.17%, while DOS mediates 1.67% of PFF influence on depressiveness. Lack of expected mediation effect could be explained by missing other potential mediators (i.e., relationship with that father, social skills, self-esteem) and lower variability of both predictor and criterion variable due to their low levels on the whole sample and on control subsamples. Results suggested that inaccessibility and/or successfulness of other adaptive and defensive mechanisms for overcoming social disadvantages has a strong impact on the mediation effect of self/efficacy and differentiation of self from poor family functioning to depressive symptoms. Further researches could include other potential mediators and a sample of clinically depressed people.

Keywords: antisocial behavior, mediating effect, moderating effect, natural setting, incarceration

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Authors: Jaehyung An, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

Patent documents constitute an up-to-date and reliable source of knowledge for reflecting technological advance, so patent analysis has been widely used for identification of technological trends and formulation of technology strategies. But, identifying technological information from patent data entails some limitations such as, high cost, complexity, and inconsistency because it rely on the expert’ knowledge. To overcome these limitations, researchers have applied to a quantitative analysis based on the keyword technique. By using this method, you can include a technological implication, particularly patent documents, or extract a keyword that indicates the important contents. However, it only uses the simple-counting method by keyword frequency, so it cannot take into account the sematic relationship with the keywords and sematic information such as, how the technologies are used in their technology area and how the technologies affect the other technologies. To automatically analyze unstructured technological information in patents to extract the semantic information, it should be transformed into an abstracted form that includes the technological key concepts. Specific sentence structure ‘SAO’ (subject, action, object) is newly emerged by representing ‘key concepts’ and can be extracted by NLP (Natural language processor). An SAO structure can be organized in a problem-solution format if the action-object (AO) states that the problem and subject (S) form the solution. In this paper, we propose the new methodology that can extract the SAO structure through technical elements extracting rules. Although sentence structures in the patents text have a unique format, prior studies have depended on general NLP (Natural language processor) applied to the common documents such as newspaper, research paper, and twitter mentions, so it cannot take into account the specific sentence structure types of the patent documents. To overcome this limitation, we identified a unique form of the patent sentences and defined the SAO structures in the patents text data. There are four types of technical elements that consist of technology adoption purpose, application area, tool for technology, and technical components. These four types of sentence structures from patents have their own specific word structure by location or sequence of the part of speech at each sentence. Finally, we developed algorithms for extracting SAOs and this result offer insight for the technology innovation process by providing different perspectives of technology.

Keywords: NLP, patent analysis, SAO, semantic-analysis

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Authors: Yemane Tadesse Gebreslassie, Fisseha Guesh Gebremeskel

Abstract:

Nanotechnology has made remarkable advancements in recent years, revolutionizing various scientific fields, industries, and research institutions through the utilization of metal and metal oxide nanoparticles. Among these nanoparticles, copper oxide nanoparticles (CuO NPs) have garnered significant attention due to their versatile properties and wide-range applications, particularly, as effective antimicrobial and anticancer agents. CuO NPs can be synthesized using different methods, including physical, chemical, and biological approaches. However, conventional chemical and physical approaches are expensive, resource-intensive, and involve the use of hazardous chemicals, which can pose risks to human health and the environment. In contrast, biological synthesis provides a sustainable and cost-effective alternative by eliminating chemical pollutants and allowing for the production of CuO NPs of tailored sizes and shapes. This comprehensive review focused on the green synthesis of CuO NPs using various biological resources, such as plants, microorganisms, and other biological derivatives. Current knowledge and recent trends in green synthesis methods for CuO NPs are discussed, with a specific emphasis on their biomedical applications, particularly in combating cancer and microbial infections. This review highlights the significant potential of CuO NPs in addressing these diseases. By capitalizing on the advantages of biological synthesis, such as environmental safety and the ability to customize nanoparticle characteristics, CuO NPs have emerged as promising therapeutic agents for a wide range of conditions. This review presents compelling findings, demonstrating the remarkable achievements of biologically synthesized CuO NPs as therapeutic agents. Their unique properties and mechanisms enable effective combating against cancer cells and various harmful microbial infections. CuO NPs exhibit potent anticancer activity through diverse mechanisms, including induction of apoptosis, inhibition of angiogenesis, and modulation of signaling pathways. Additionally, their antimicrobial activity manifests through various mechanisms, such as disrupting microbial membranes, generating reactive oxygen species, and interfering with microbial enzymes. This review offers valuable insights into the substantial potential of biologically synthesized CuO NPs as an alternative approach for future therapeutic interventions against cancer and microbial infections.

Keywords: copper oxide nanoparticles, green synthesis, nanotechnology, microbial infection

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Authors: Stefan Ninković

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the different theoretical approaches and relevant empirical evidence and thus, recognize some of the most pressing challenges faced by school leaders. This paper starts from the fact that the new mission of the school is characterized by the need for stronger coordination among students' academic, social and emotional learning. In this sense, school leaders need to focus their commitment, vision and leadership on the issues of students' attitudes, language, cultural and social background, and sexual orientation. More specifically, they should know what a good teaching is for student’s at-risk, students whose first language is not dominant in school, those who’s learning styles are not in accordance with usual teaching styles, or who are stigmatized. There is a rather wide consensus around the fact that the traditionally popular concept of instructional leadership of the school principal is no longer sufficient. However, in a number of "pro-leadership" circles, including certain groups of academic researchers, consultants and practitioners, there is an established tendency of attributing school principal an extraordinary influence towards school achievements. On the other hand, the situation in which all employees in the school are leaders is a utopia par excellence. Although leadership obviously can be efficiently distributed across the school, there are few findings that speak about sources of this distribution and factors making it sustainable. Another idea that is not particularly new, but has only recently gained in importance is related to the fact that the collective capacity of the school is an important resource that often remains under-cultivated. To understand the nature and power of collaborative school cultures, it is necessary to know that these operate in a way that they make their all collective members' tacit knowledge explicit. In this sense, the question is how leaders in schools can shape collaborative culture and create social capital in the school. Pressure exerted on schools to systematically collect and use the data has been accompanied by the need for school leaders to develop new competencies. The role of school leaders is critical in the process of assessing what data are needed and for what purpose. Different types of data are important: test results, data on student’s absenteeism, satisfaction with school, teacher motivation, etc. One of the most important tasks of school leaders are data-driven decision making as well as ensuring transparency of the decision-making process. Finally, the question arises whether the existing models of school leadership are compatible with the current social and economic trends. It is necessary to examine whether and under what conditions schools are in need for forms of leadership that are different from those that currently prevail. Closely related to this issue is also to analyze the adequacy of different approaches to leadership development in the school.

Keywords: educational changes, leaders, leadership, school

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Authors: Darren J. Ellis

Abstract:

This paper investigates the key industry-level consequences and future prospects for the global airline industry of the requirement for airlines to have a home base. This industry context results in geographical location playing a central role in determining how and where international airlines can operate, and the extent to which their international networks can develop. Data from a five stage mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry’s likely future trajectory conducted in 2013 and 2014 are utilized to better understand the likelihood and consequences of home base requirements changing in future. Expert views and forecasts were collected to gauge core industry trends over a ten year timeframe. Attempts to change or bypass this industry requirement have not been successful to date outside of the European single air market. Europe remains the only prominent exception to the general rule in this regard. Most of the industry is founded on air space sovereignty, the nationality rule, and the bilateral system of traffic rights. Europe’s exceptionalism has seen it evolve into a single air market with characteristics similar to a nation-state, rather than to become a force for wider industry change and regional multilateralism. Europe has indeed become a key actor in global aviation, but Europe seems to now be part of the industry’s status quo, not a vehicle for substantially wider multilateralism around the world. The findings from this research indicate that the bilateral system is not viewed by most study experts as disappearing or substantially weakening in the foreseeable future. However, regional multilateralism was also viewed as progressively taking hold in the industry in future, demonstrating that for most industry experts the two are not seen as mutually exclusive but rather as being able to co-exist with each other. This reality ensures that geographical location will continue to play an important role in the global airline industry in future and that, home base requirements will not disappear any time soon either. Even moves in some aviation jurisdictions to dilute nationality requirements for airlines, and instead replace ownership and control restrictions with principal place of business tests, do not ultimately free airlines from their home base. Likewise, an expansion of what constitutes home base to include a regional grouping of countries – again, a currently uncommon reality in global aviation – does not fundamentally weaken the continued relevance of geographical location to the global industry’s future growth and development realities and prospects.

Keywords: airline industry, air space sovereignty, geographical location, home base

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Authors: Pappu Kumar, Ajai Singh, Anshuman Singh

Abstract:

There are different water user sectors such as rural, urban, mining, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture, commercial forestry, industry, power generation which are present in the catchment in Subarnarekha River Basin and Ranchi city. There is an inequity issue in the access to water. The development of the rural area, construction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, the requirement of unmet water demand and the consideration of environmental flows, the revitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes is going to increase the water demands in almost all the water-stressed catchment. The WEAP Model was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development. The WEAP model can be used for both urban and rural areas and can address a wide range of issues including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, river flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project cost-benefit analyses. This model is a tool for integrated water resource management and planning like, forecasting water demand, supply, inflows, outflows, water use, reuse, water quality, priority areas and Hydropower generation, In the present study, efforts have been made to access the utility of the WEAP model for water supply and demand analysis for Ranchi city. A detailed works have been carried out and it was tried to ascertain that the WEAP model used for generating different scenario of water requirement, which could help for the future planning of water. The water supplied to Ranchi city was mostly contributed by our study river, Hatiya reservoir and ground water. Data was collected from various agencies like PHE Ranchi, census data of 2011, Doranda reservoir and meteorology department etc. This collected and generated data was given as input to the WEAP model. The model generated the trends for discharge of our study river up to next 2050 and same time also generated scenarios calculating our demand and supplies for feature. The results generated from the model outputs predicting the water require 12 million litter. The results will help in drafting policies for future regarding water supplies and demands under changing climatic scenarios.

Keywords: WEAP model, water demand analysis, Ranchi, scenarios

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Authors: Kirsty Biggs, Peter Larsen-Disney

Abstract:

Background: The UK cervical screening programme significantly reduces cancer mortality through the early detection of abnormal cells. Despite this, over a quarter of eligible women choose not to attend their appointment. Objective: To qualitatively explore patients’ barriers to attending cervical smear appointments and identify key trends of cervical screening behaviour, knowledge, and attitudes in primary and secondary care. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate smear services in Brighton and Hove using questionnaires in general practice and colposcopy. 226 patients participated in the voluntary questionnaire between 10/11/2017 and 02/02/2018. 118 patients were recruited from general practice surgeries and 108 from the colposcopy department. Women were asked about their smear knowledge, self-perceived risks factors, prior experiences and reasons for non-attendance. Demographic data was also collected. Results: Approximately a third of women did not engage in smear testing services. This was consistent across primary and secondary care groups. Over 90% were aware of the role of the screening process in relation to cervical cancer; however, over two thirds believed the smear was also a tool to screen for other pathologies. The most commonly cited reasons for non-attendance were negative emotions or previous experiences. Inconvenient appointment times were also commonly described. In a comparison of attenders versus non-attenders previous negative experiences (p < 0.01) and number of identified risk factors (p = 0.02) were statistically significant with non-attenders describing more prior negative smears and identifying more risk factors. Smear knowledge, risk perception and perceived importance of screening were not significant. Negative previous experiences were described in relation to poor bedside manner, pain, embarrassment and staff competency. Conclusions: In contrary to the literature, our white Caucasian cohort experienced significant barriers to accessing smear services. Women’s prior negative experiences are overriding their perceived importance to attend the screening programme; therefore, efforts need to focus on improving clinical experiences through auditing tools, training and providing a supportive appointment setting. Positive changes can also be expected by improving appointment availabilities with extended hours and self-booking systems.

Keywords: barriers, cervical, Papanicolaou, screening, smear

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Authors: Titir Bhattacharya, Tanika Chakraborty, Prabal K. De

Abstract:

Maternal and child health continue to be a significant policy focus in developing countries, including India. An emerging model in health care is the creation of public and private partnerships. Since the construction of physical infrastructure is costly, governments at various levels have tried to implement social health insurance schemes where a trust calculates insurance premiums and medical payments. Typically, qualifying families get full subsidization of the premium and get access to private hospitals, in addition to low cost public hospitals, for their tertiary care needs. We analyze one such pioneering social insurance scheme in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP). The Rajiv Aarogyasri program (RA) was introduced by the Government of AP on a pilot basis in 2007 and implemented in 2008. In this paper, we first examine the extent to which access to reproductive health care changed. For example, the RA scheme reimburses hospital deliveries leading us to expect an increase in institutional deliveries, particularly in private hospitals. Second, we expect an increase in institutional deliveries to also improve child health outcomes. Hence, we estimate if the program improved infant and child mortality. We use District Level Health Survey data to create annual birth cohorts from 2000-2015. Since AP was the only state in which such a state insurance program was implemented, the neighboring states constituted a plausible control group. Combined with the policy timing, and the year of birth, we employ a difference-indifference strategy to identify the effects of RA on the residents of AP. We perform several checks against threats to identification, including testing for pre-treatment trends between the treatment and control states. We find that the policy significantly lowered infant and child mortality in AP. We also find that deliveries in private hospitals increased, and government hospitals decreased, showing a substitution effect of the relative price change. Finally, as expected, out-of-pocket costs declined for the treatment group. However, we do not find any significant effects for usual preventive care such as vaccination, showing that benefits of insurance schemes targeted at the tertiary level may not trickle down to the primary care level.

Keywords: public health insurance, maternal and child health, public-private choice

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Authors: In-Lee Choi, Min Jae Jeong, Jun Pill Baek, Ho-Min Kang

Abstract:

As the consumption trends of vegetables become different from the past, it is increased using vegetable more convenience such as fresh-cut vegetables, sprouts, baby vegetables rather than an existing hole piece of vegetables. Selected baby vegetables have various functional materials but they have short shelf life. This study was conducted to improve storability by using suitable laser ablation OTR (oxygen transmission rate) films. Baby vegetable of endive (Cichorium endivia L.) and pak choi (Brassica rapa chinensis) for this research, around 10 cm height, cultivated in glass greenhouse during 3 weeks. Harvested endive and pak choi were stored at 8 ℃ for 5 days and were packed by PP (Polypropylene) container and covered different types of laser ablation OTR film (DaeRyung Co., Ltd.) such as 1,300 cc, 10,000 cc, 20,000 cc, 40,000 cc /m2•day•atm, and control (perforated film) with heat sealing machine (SC200-IP, Kumkang, Korea). All the samples conducted 5 times replication. Statistical analysis was carried out using a Microsoft Excel 2010 program and results were expressed as standard deviations. The fresh weight loss rate of both baby vegetables were less than 0.3 % in treated films as maximum weight loss rate. On the other hands, control in the final storage day had around 3.0 % weight loss rate and it followed decreasing quantity. Endive had less 2.0 % carbon dioxide contents as maximum contents in 20,000 cc and 40,000 cc. Oxygen contents was maintained between 17 and 20 % in endive, 19 and 20 % in pak choi. Ethylene concentration of both vegetables maintained little lower contents in 20,000 cc treatments than others at final storage day without statistical significance. In the case of hardness, 40,000 cc film was shown little higher value at both baby vegetables without statistical significance. Visual quality was good at 10,000 cc and 20,000 cc in endive and pak choi, and off-flavor was not appeard any off-flavor in both vegetables. Chlorophyll (SPAD-502, Minolta, Japan) value of endive was shown as similar result with initial in all treatments except 20,000 cc as little lower. And chlorophyll value of pak choi decreased in all treatments compared with initial value but was not shown significantly difference each other. Color of leaves (CR-400, Minolta, Japan) changed significantly in 40,000 cc at endive. In an event of pak choi, all the treatments started yellowing by increasing hunter b value, among them control increased substantially. As above the result, 10,000 cc film was most reasonable packaging film for storing at endive and 20,000 cc at pak choi with good quality.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, shelf-life, visual quality, pak choi

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Authors: Yemane Tadesse Gebreslassie, Fisseha Guesh Gebremeskel

Abstract:

Nanotechnology has made remarkable advancements in recent years, revolutionizing various scientific fields, industries, and research institutions through the utilization of metal and metal oxide nanoparticles. Among these nanoparticles, copper oxide nanoparticles (CuO NPs) have garnered significant attention due to their versatile properties and wide-range applications, particularly, as effective antimicrobial and anticancer agents. CuO NPs can be synthesized using different methods, including physical, chemical, and biological approaches. However, conventional chemical and physical approaches are expensive, resource-intensive, and involve the use of hazardous chemicals, which can pose risks to human health and the environment. In contrast, biological synthesis provides a sustainable and cost-effective alternative by eliminating chemical pollutants and allowing for the production of CuO NPs of tailored sizes and shapes. This comprehensive review focused on the green synthesis of CuO NPs using various biological resources, such as plants, microorganisms, and other biological derivatives. Current knowledge and recent trends in green synthesis methods for CuO NPs are discussed, with a specific emphasis on their biomedical applications, particularly in combating cancer and microbial infections. This review highlights the significant potential of CuO NPs in addressing these diseases. By capitalizing on the advantages of biological synthesis, such as environmental safety and the ability to customize nanoparticle characteristics, CuO NPs have emerged as promising therapeutic agents for a wide range of conditions. This review presents compelling findings, demonstrating the remarkable achievements of biologically synthesized CuO NPs as therapeutic agents. Their unique properties and mechanisms enable effective combating against cancer cells and various harmful microbial infections. CuO NPs exhibit potent anticancer activity through diverse mechanisms, including induction of apoptosis, inhibition of angiogenesis, and modulation of signaling pathways. Additionally, their antimicrobial activity manifests through various mechanisms, such as disrupting microbial membranes, generating reactive oxygen species, and interfering with microbial enzymes. This review offers valuable insights into the substantial potential of biologically synthesized CuO NPs as an alternative approach for future therapeutic interventions against cancer and microbial infections.

Keywords: biological synthesis, copper oxide nanoparticles, microbial infection, nanotechnology

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Authors: Banu Baybars Hawks

Abstract:

To date, academic attention in social sciences remains inadequate with regard to research and analysis of public opinion in Turkey. Most of the existing research has assessed the public opinion during political election periods. Therefore, it is of great interest to find out what the public thinks about current issues in Turkey, and how to interpret the results to be able to reveal whether they may have any reflections on social, political, and cultural structure of the country. Accordingly, the current study seeks to fill the gap in the social sciences literature in English regarding Turkey’s social and political stand which may be perceived to be very different by other nations. Without timely feedback from public surveys, various programs for improving different services and institutions functioning in the country might not achieve their expected goal, nor can decisions about which programs to implement be made rationally. Additionally, the information gathered may not only yield important insights into public’s opinion regarding current agenda in Turkey, but also into the correlates shaping public policies. Agenda-setting studies including agenda-building, agenda melding, reversed agenda-setting and information diffusion studies will be used to explain the roles of factors and actors in the formation of public opinion in Turkey. Knowing the importance of public agenda in the agenda setting and building process, this paper aims to reveal the social and political tendencies of the Turkish public. For that purpose, a survey will be carried out in December of 2014 to determine the social and political trends in Turkey for that same year. The subjects for the study, which utilize a questionairre in one-on-one interviews, will include 1,000 individuals aged 18 years and older from 26 cities representing general population. A stratified random sampling frame will be used. The topics covered by the survey include: The most important current problem in Turkey; the Economy; Terror; Approaches to the Kurdish Issue; Evaluations of the Government and Opposition Parties; Evaluations of Institutional Efficiency; Foreign Policy; the Judicial System/Constitution; Democracy and the Media; and, Social Relations/Life in Turkey. Since the beginning of the 21st century, Turkey has been undergoing a rapid transformation. The reflections of the changes can be seen in all areas from economics to politics. It is my hope that findings of this study may shed light on the important aspects of institutions, variables setting the agenda, and formation process of public opinion in Turkey.

Keywords: public opinion, media, agenda setting, information diffusion, government, freedom, Turkey

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

Abstract:

Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

Abstract:

Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

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Authors: Gaelle Candel, David Naccache

Abstract:

t-SNE is an embedding method that the data science community has widely used. It helps two main tasks: to display results by coloring items according to the item class or feature value; and for forensic, giving a first overview of the dataset distribution. Two interesting characteristics of t-SNE are the structure preservation property and the answer to the crowding problem, where all neighbors in high dimensional space cannot be represented correctly in low dimensional space. t-SNE preserves the local neighborhood, and similar items are nicely spaced by adjusting to the local density. These two characteristics produce a meaningful representation, where the cluster area is proportional to its size in number, and relationships between clusters are materialized by closeness on the embedding. This algorithm is non-parametric. The transformation from a high to low dimensional space is described but not learned. Two initializations of the algorithm would lead to two different embeddings. In a forensic approach, analysts would like to compare two or more datasets using their embedding. A naive approach would be to embed all datasets together. However, this process is costly as the complexity of t-SNE is quadratic and would be infeasible for too many datasets. Another approach would be to learn a parametric model over an embedding built with a subset of data. While this approach is highly scalable, points could be mapped at the same exact position, making them indistinguishable. This type of model would be unable to adapt to new outliers nor concept drift. This paper presents a methodology to reuse an embedding to create a new one, where cluster positions are preserved. The optimization process minimizes two costs, one relative to the embedding shape and the second relative to the support embedding’ match. The embedding with the support process can be repeated more than once, with the newly obtained embedding. The successive embedding can be used to study the impact of one variable over the dataset distribution or monitor changes over time. This method has the same complexity as t-SNE per embedding, and memory requirements are only doubled. For a dataset of n elements sorted and split into k subsets, the total embedding complexity would be reduced from O(n²) to O(n²=k), and the memory requirement from n² to 2(n=k)², which enables computation on recent laptops. The method showed promising results on a real-world dataset, allowing to observe the birth, evolution, and death of clusters. The proposed approach facilitates identifying significant trends and changes, which empowers the monitoring high dimensional datasets’ dynamics.

Keywords: concept drift, data visualization, dimension reduction, embedding, monitoring, reusability, t-SNE, unsupervised learning

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Authors: Ahlem Dhahri, Waleed Omri, Audrey Becuwe, Abdelwahed Omri

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In industrial processes, decision-making ranges across different scales, from process control to supply chain management. The purchasing decision-making process in the supply chain is presently gaining more attention as a critical contributor to the company's strategic success. Given the scarcity of thorough summaries in the prior studies, this bibliometric analysis aims to adopt a meticulous approach to achieve quantitative knowledge on the constantly evolving subject of purchasing decision-making in supply chain management. Through bibliometric analysis, we examine a sample of 358 peer-reviewed articles from the Scopus database. VOSviewer and Gephi software were employed to analyze, combine, and visualize the data. Data analytic techniques, including citation network, page-rank analysis, co-citation, and publication trends, have been used to identify influential works and outline the discipline's intellectual structure. The outcomes of this descriptive analysis highlight the most prominent articles, authors, journals, and countries based on their citations and publications. The findings from the research illustrate an increase in the number of publications, exhibiting a slightly growing trend in this field. Co-citation analysis coupled with content analysis of the most cited articles identified five research themes mentioned as follows integrating sustainability into the supplier selection process, supplier selection under disruption risks assessment and mitigation strategies, Fuzzy MCDM approaches for supplier evaluation and selection, purchasing decision in vendor problems, decision-making techniques in supplier selection and order lot sizing problems. With the help of a graphic timeline, this exhaustive map of the field illustrates a visual representation of the evolution of publications that demonstrate a gradual shift from research interest in vendor selection problems to integrating sustainability in the supplier selection process. These clusters offer insights into a wide variety of purchasing methods and conceptual frameworks that have emerged; however, they have not been validated empirically. The findings suggest that future research would emerge with a greater depth of practical and empirical analysis to enrich the theories. These outcomes provide a powerful road map for further study in this area.

Keywords: bibliometric analysis, citation analysis, co-citation, Gephi, network analysis, purchasing, SCM, VOSviewer

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Chenxiao Yang, Li Li

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In this decade, the sportswear market rapidly expanded while numerous sports brands are conducting fierce competitions to hold their market shares and trying to act as a leader in professional competition sports areas to set the trends. Thus, various advancing sports equipment is being deeply explored to improving athletes’ performance in fierce competitions. Although there is plenty protective equipment such as cuff, running legging, etc., on the market, there is still blank in the field of sportswear during prerace warm-up this important time gap, especially for those competitions host in cold environment. Because there is always time gaps between warm-up and race due to event logistics or unexpected weather factors. Athletes will be exposed to chilly condition for an unpredictable long period of time. As a consequence, the effects of warm-up will be negated, and the competition performance will be degraded. However, reviewing the current market, there is none effective sports equipment provided to help athletes against this harsh environment or the rare existing products are so blocky or heavy to restrict the actions. An ideal thermal-protective sportswear should be light, flexible, comfort and aesthetic at the same time. Therefore, this design research adopted the textile circular knitting methodology to integrate soft silver-coated conductive yarns (ab. SCCYs), elastic nylon yarn and polyester yarn to develop the proposed electrical, thermal sportswear, with the strengths aforementioned. Meanwhile, the relationship between heating performance, stretch load, and energy consumption were investigated. Further, a simulation model was established to ensure providing sufficient warm and flexibility at lower energy cost and with an optimized production, parameter determined. The proposed circular knitting technology and simulation model can be directly applied to instruct prototype developments to cater different target consumers’ needs and ensure prototypes’’ safety. On the other hand, high R&D investment and time consumption can be saved. Further, two prototypes: a kneecap and an elbow guard, were developed to facilitate the transformation of research technology into an industrial application and to give a hint on the blur future blueprint.

Keywords: cold environment, silver-coated conductive yarn, electrical thermal textile, stretchable

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Authors: Martina Katalin Szabó, Bernadett Lipóczi, Csenge Guba, István Uveges

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In this study, an exhaustive analysis was carried out about the historical development of negative emotive intensifiers in the Hungarian language via NLP methods. Intensifiers are linguistic elements which modify or reinforce a variable character in the lexical unit they apply to. Therefore, intensifiers appear with other lexical items, such as adverbs, adjectives, verbs, infrequently with nouns. Due to the complexity of this phenomenon (set of sociolinguistic, semantic, and historical aspects), there are many lexical items which can operate as intensifiers. The group of intensifiers are admittedly one of the most rapidly changing elements in the language. From a linguistic point of view, particularly interesting are a special group of intensifiers, the so-called negative emotive intensifiers, that, on their own, without context, have semantic content that can be associated with negative emotion, but in particular cases, they may function as intensifiers (e.g.borzasztóanjó ’awfully good’, which means ’excellent’). Despite their special semantic features, negative emotive intensifiers are scarcely examined in literature based on large Historical corpora via NLP methods. In order to become better acquainted with trends over time concerning the intensifiers, The exhaustively analysed a specific historical corpus, namely the Magyar TörténetiSzövegtár (Hungarian Historical Corpus). This corpus (containing 3 millions text words) is a collection of texts of various genres and styles, produced between 1772 and 2010. Since the corpus consists of raw texts and does not contain any additional information about the language features of the data (such as stemming or morphological analysis), a large amount of manual work was required to process the data. Thus, based on a lexicon of negative emotive intensifiers compiled in a previous phase of the research, every occurrence of each intensifier was queried, and the results were stored in a separate data frame. Then, basic linguistic processing (POS-tagging, lemmatization etc.) was carried out automatically with the ‘magyarlanc’ NLP-toolkit. Finally, the frequency and collocation features of all the negative emotive words were automatically analyzed in the corpus. Outcomes of the research revealed in detail how these words have proceeded through grammaticalization over time, i.e., they change from lexical elements to grammatical ones, and they slowly go through a delexicalization process (their negative content diminishes over time). What is more, it was also pointed out which negative emotive intensifiers are at the same stage in this process in the same time period. Giving a closer look to the different domains of the analysed corpus, it also became certain that during this process, the pragmatic role’s importance increases: the newer use expresses the speaker's subjective, evaluative opinion at a certain level.

Keywords: historical corpus analysis, historical linguistics, negative emotive intensifiers, semantic changes over time

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Authors: Ho Yin Wickson Cheung, Liora Malki-Epshtein

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Outdoor air pollution presents a significant challenge for public health globally, especially in urban areas, with road traffic acting as the primary contributor to air pollution. Several studies have documented the antagonistic relation between traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and the impact on health, especially to the vulnerable group of population, particularly young pupils. Generally, TRAP could cause damage to their brain, restricting the ability of children to learn and, more importantly, causing detrimental respiratory issues in later life. Butlittle is known about the specific exposure of children at school during the school day and the impact this may have on their overall exposure to pollution at a crucial time in their development. This project has set out to examine the air quality across primary schools in South-East London and assesses the variability of data found based on their geographic location and surroundings. Nitrogen dioxide, PM contaminants, and carbon dioxide were collected with diffusion tubes and portable monitoring equipment for eight schools across three local areas, that are Greenwich, Lewisham, and Tower Hamlets. This study first examines the geographical features of the schools surrounding (E.g., coverage of urban road structure and green infrastructure), then utilize three different methods to capture pollutants data. Moreover, comparing the obtained results with existing data from monitoring stations to understand the differences in air quality before and during the pandemic. Furthermore, most studies in this field have unfortunately neglected human exposure to pollutants and calculated based on values from fixed monitoring stations. Therefore, this paper introduces an alternative approach by calculating human exposure to air pollution from real-time data obtained when commuting within related areas (Driving routes and field walking). It is found that schools located highly close to motorways are generally not suffering from the most air pollution contaminants. Instead, one with the worst traffic congested routes nearby might also result in poor air quality. Monitored results also indicate that the annual air pollution values have slightly decreased during the pandemic. However, the majority of the data is currently still exceeding the WHO guidelines. Finally, the total human exposures for NO2 during commuting in the two selected routes were calculated. Results illustrated the total exposure for route 1 were 21,730 μm/m3 and 28,378.32 μm/m3, and for route 2 were 30,672 μm/m3 and 16,473 μm/m3. The variance that occurred might be due to the difference in traffic volume that requires further research. Exposure for NO2 during commuting was plotted with detailed timesteps that have shown their peak usually occurred while commuting. These have consolidated the initial assumption to the extremeness of TRAP. To conclude, this paper has yielded significant benefits to understanding air quality across schools in London with the new approach of capturing human exposure (Driving routes). Confirming the severity of air pollution and promoting the necessity of considering environmental sustainability for policymakers during decision making to protect society's future pillars.

Keywords: air pollution, schools, pupils, congestion

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Authors: Stefanie Santorsola, Natasha Frank

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Improving healthcare safety necessitates examining current trends and beliefs about safety and devising strategies to improve. Errors in healthcare continue to increase and be experienced by patients, which is preventable and directly correlated to a breakdown in healthcare communication. TeamSTEPPS is an evidence-based process designed to improve the quality and safety of healthcare by improving communication and team processes. Communication is at the core of effective team collaboration and is vital for patient safety. TeamSTEPPS offers insights and strategies for improving communication and teamwork and reducing preventable errors to create a safer healthcare environment for patients. The academic, clinical, and educational environment for nursing students is vital in preparing them for professional practice by providing them with foundational knowledge and abilities. This environment provides them with a prime opportunity to learn about errors and the importance of effective communication to enhance patient safety, as nursing students are often unprepared to deal with errors. Proactively introducing and discussing errors through a supportive culture during the nursing student’s academic beginnings has the potential to carry key concepts into practice to improve and enhance patient safety. TeamSTEPPS has been used globally and has collectively positively impacted improvements in patient safety and teamwork. A workshop study was introduced in winter 2023 of registered practical nurses (RPN) students bridging to the baccalaureate nursing program; the majority of the RPNs in the bridging program were actively employed in a variety of healthcare facilities during the semester. The workshop study did receive academic institution ethics board approval, and participants signed a consent form prior to participating in the study. The premise of the workshop was to introduce TeamSTEPPS and a variety of strategies to these students and have students keep a reflective journal to incorporate the presented communication strategies in their practicum setting and keep a reflective journal on the effect and outcomes of the strategies in the healthcare setting. Findings from the workshop study supported the objective of the project, resulting in students verbalizing notable improvements in team functioning in the healthcare environment resulting from the incorporation of enhanced communication strategies from TeamSTEPPS that they were introduced to in the workshop study. Implication for educational institutions is the potential of further advancing the safety literacy and abilities of nursing students in preparing them for entering the workforce and improving safety for patients.

Keywords: teamstepps, education, patient safety, communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Catarina Ferreira Rebelo, Luis Madeira de Carvalho, Fernando González González

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The order Passeridae corresponds to the richest and most abundant group of birds, with approximately 6500 species, making it possible to assert that two out of every three bird species are passerines. They are globally distributed and exhibit remarkable morphological and ecological variability. While numerous species of parasites have been identified and described in wild birds, there has been little focus on passeriformes. Seventeen passerines admitted to GREFA, a Wildlife Rehabilitation Center, throughout the months of October, November and December 2022 were analyzed. The species included Aegithalos caudatus, Anthus pratensis, Carduelis chloris, Certhia brachydactyla, Erithacus rubecula, Fringilla coelebs, Parus ater, Passer domesticus, Sturnus unicolor, Sylvia atricapilla, Turdus merula and Turdus philomelos. Data regarding past history was collected, and necropsies were conducted to identify the cause of death and body condition and determine the presence of parasites. Additionally, samples of intestinal content were collected for direct/fecal smear, flotation and sedimentation techniques. Sixteen (94.1%) passerines were considered positive for the presence of parasitic forms in at least one of the techniques used, including parasites detected in necropsy. Adult specimens of both sexes and tritonymphs of Monojoubertia microhylla and ectoparasites of the genus Ornithonyssus were identified. Macroscopic adult endoparasitic forms were also found during necropsies, including Diplotriaena sp., Serratospiculum sp. and Porrocaecum sp.. Parasitism by coccidia was observed with no sporulation. Additionally, eggs of nematodes from various genera were detected, such as Diplotriaena sp., Capillaria sp., Porrocaecum sp., Syngamus sp. and Strongyloides sp., eggs of trematodes, specifically the genus Brachylecithum and cestode oncospheres, whose genera were not identified. To our knowledge, the respiratory nematode Serratospiculum sp. found in this study is being reported for the first time in passerines in the Iberian Peninsula, along with the application of common coprological techniques for the identification of eggs in the intestinal content. The majority of parasites identified utilize intermediary hosts present in the diet of the passerines sampled. Furthermore, the discovery of certain parasites with a direct life cycle could potentially exert greater influence, particularly in specific scenarios such as within nests or during the rehabilitation process in wildlife centers. These parasites may impact intraspecific competition, increase susceptibility to predators or lead to death. However, their cost to wild birds is often not clear, as individuals can endure various parasites without significant harm. Furthermore, wild birds serve as important sources of parasites across different animal groups, including humans and other mammals. This study provides invaluable insights into the parasitic fauna of these birds, not only serving as a cornerstone for future epidemiological investigations but also enhancing our comprehension of these avian species.

Keywords: birds, parasites, passerines, wild, spain

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Authors: Prescilla Lambert, Christophe Roos, Mounim Lebrini

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For several years, the Caribbean islands and West Africa have had to deal with the massive arrival of the brown seaweed Sargassum. Overall, this macroalgae, which constitutes a habitat for a great diversity of marine organisms, is also an additional stress factor for the marine environment (e.g., coral reefs). In addition, the accumulation followed by the significant decomposition of the Sargassum spp. biomass on the coast leads to the release of toxic gases (H₂S and NH₃), which calls into question the functioning of the economic, health and tourist life of the island and the other interested territories. Originally, these algae are formed by the eutrophication of the oceans accentuated by global warming. Unfortunately, scientists predict a significant recurrence of these Sargassum strandings for years to come. It is therefore more than necessary to find solutions by putting in place a sustainable management plan for this phenomenon. Martinique, a small island in the Caribbean arc, is one of the many areas impacted by Sargassum seaweed strandings. Since 2011, there has been a constant increase in the degradation of the materials present in this region, largely due to toxic/corrosive gases released by the algae decomposition. In order to protect the structures and the vulnerable building materials while limiting the use of synthetic/petroleum based molecules as much as possible, research is being conducted on molecules of natural origin. Thus, thanks to the chemical composition, which comprise molecules with interesting properties, algae such as Sargassum could potentially help to solve many issues. Therefore, this study focuses on the green extraction and characterization of molecules from the species Sargassum fluitans and Sargassum natans present in Martinique. The secondary metabolites found in these extracts showed variability in yield rates due to local climatic conditions. The tests carried out shed light on the anticorrosive and antibacterial potential of the algae. These extracts can thus be described as natural inhibitors. The effect of variation in inhibitor concentrations was tested in electrochemistry using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curves. The analysis of electrochemical results obtained by direct immersion in the extracts and self-assembled molecular layers (SAMs) for Sargassum fluitans III, Sargassum natans I and VIII species was conclusive in acid and alkaline environments. The excellent results obtained reveal an inhibitory efficacy of 88% at 50mg/L for the crude extract of Sargassum fluitans III and efficacies greater than 97% for the chemical families of Sargassum fluitans III. Similarly, microbiological tests also suggest a bactericidal character. Results for Sargassum fluitans III crude extract show a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 0.005 mg/mL on Gram-negative bacteria and a MIC greater than 0.6 mg/mL on Gram-positive bacteria. These results make it possible to consider the management of local and international issues while valuing a biomass rich in biodegradable molecules. The next step in this study will therefore be the evaluation of the toxicity of Sargassum spp..

Keywords: Sargassum, secondary metabolites, anticorrosive, antibacterial, natural inhibitors

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: U. Isyaku, C. Upton, J. Dickinson

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Critical institutional approach for understanding pathways to shared prosperity among forest communities enabled questioning the underlying rational choice assumptions that have dominated traditional institutional thinking in natural resources management. Common pool resources framing assumes that communities as social groups share collective interests and values towards achieving greater development. Hence, policies related to natural resources management in the global South prioritise economic prosperity by focusing on how to maximise material benefits and improve the livelihood options of resource dependent communities. Recent trends in commodification and marketization of ecosystem goods and services into tradable natural capital and incentivising conservation are structured in this paradigm. Several researchers however, have problematized this emerging market-based model because it undermines cultural basis for protecting natural ecosystems. By exploring how forest people’s motivations for conservation differ within the context of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) project in Nigeria, we aim to provide an alternative approach to conceptualising prosperity beyond the traditional economic thinking. Through in depth empirical work over seven months with five communities in Nigeria’s Cross River State, Q methodology was used to uncover communities’ perspectives and meanings of forest values that underpin contemporary and historic conservation practices, expected benefits, and willingness to participate in the REDD+ process. Our study finds six discourses about forest and conservation values that transcend wealth creation, poverty reduction and livelihoods. We argue that communities’ decisions about forest conservation consist of a complex mixture of economic, emotional, moral, and ecological justice concerns that constitute new meanings and dimensions of prosperity. Prosperity is thus reconfigured as having socio-cultural and psychological pathways that could be derived through place identity and attachment, connectedness to nature, family ties, and ability to participate in everyday social life. We therefore suggest that natural resources policy making and development interventions should consider institutional arrangements that also include the psycho-cultural dimensions of prosperity among diverse community groups.

Keywords: critical institutionalism, Q methodology, REDD+, shared prosperity

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Authors: Staci McGill, Morgan Hayes, Robert Coleman, Kimberly Tumlin

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The interaction and relationships between horses and humans have been shown to be positive for physical, mental, and emotional wellbeing, however equine spaces where these interactions occur do include some environmental risks. There are 1.7 million jobs associated with the equine industry in the United States in addition to recreational riders, owners, and volunteers who interact with horses for substantial amounts of time daily inside built structures. One specialized facility, an “indoor arena” is a semi-indoor structure used for exercising horses and exhibiting skills during competitive events. Typically, indoor arenas have a sand or sand mixture as the footing or surface over which the horse travels, and increasingly, silica sand is being recommended due to its durable nature. It was previously identified in a semi-qualitative survey that the majority of individuals using indoor arenas have environmental concerns with dust. 27% (90/333) of respondents reported respiratory issues or allergy-like symptoms while riding with 21.6% (71/329) of respondents reporting these issues while standing on the ground observing or teaching. Frequent headaches and/or lightheadedness was reported in 9.9% (33/333) of respondents while riding and in 4.3% 14/329 while on the ground. Horse respiratory health is also negatively impacted with 58% (194/333) of respondents indicating horses cough during or after time in the indoor arena. Instructors who spent time in indoor arenas self-reported more respiratory issues than those individuals who identified as smokers, highlighting the health relevance of understanding these unique structures. To further elucidate environmental concerns and self-reported health issues, 35 facility assessments were conducted in a cross-sectional sampling design in the states of Kentucky and Ohio (USA). Data, including air speeds, were collected in a grid fashion at 15 points within the indoor arenas and then mapped spatially using krigging in ARCGIS. From the spatial maps, standard variances were obtained and differences were analyzed using multivariant analysis of variances (MANOVA) and analysis of variances (ANOVA). There were no differences for the variance of the air speeds in the spaces for facility orientation, presence and type of roof ventilation, climate control systems, amount of openings, or use of fans. Variability of the air speeds in the indoor arenas was 0.25 or less. Further analysis yielded that average air speeds within the indoor arenas were lower than 100 ft/min (0.51 m/s) which is considered still air in other animal facilities. The lack of air movement means that dust clearance is reliant on particle size and weight rather than ventilation. While further work on respirable dust is necessary, this characterization of the semi-indoor environment where animals and humans interact indicates insufficient air flow to eliminate or reduce respiratory hazards. Finally, engineering solutions to address air movement deficiencies within indoor arenas or mitigate particulate matter are critical to ensuring exposures do not lead to adverse health outcomes for equine professionals, volunteers, participants, and horses within these spaces.

Keywords: equine, indoor arena, ventilation, particulate matter, respiratory health

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Authors: Natasha Gabriella, Josef-Peter Schöggl, Alfred Posch

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Being a mature industry, pulp and paper industry (PPI) possess strength points coming from its existing infrastructure, technology know-how, and abundant availability of biomass. However, the declining trend of the wood-based products sales sends a clear signal to the industry to transform its business model in order to increase its profitability. With the emerging global attention on bio-based economy and circular economy, coupled with the low price of fossil feedstock, the PPI starts to integrate biorefinery as a value-added business model to keep the industry’s competitiveness. Nonetheless, biorefinery as an innovation exposes the PPI with some barriers, of which the uncertainty of the promising product becomes one of the major hurdles. This study aims to assess factors that affect the diffusion and development of forest biorefinery in the PPI, including drivers, barriers, advantages, disadvantages, as well as the most promising bio-based products of forest biorefinery. The study examines the identified factors according to the layer of business environment, being the macro-environment, industry, and strategic group level. Besides, an overview of future state of the identified factors is elaborated as to map necessary improvements for implementing forest biorefinery. A two-phase Delphi method is used to collect the empirical data for the study, comprising of an online-based survey and interviews. Delphi method is an effective communication tools to elicit ideas from a group of experts to further reach a consensus of forecasting future trends. Collaborating a total of 50 experts in the panel, the study reveals that influential factors are found in every layers of business of the PPI. The politic dimension is apparent to have a significant influence for tackling the economy barrier while reinforcing the environmental and social benefits in the macro-environment. In the industry level, the biomass availability appears to be a strength point of the PPI while the knowledge gap on technology and market seem to be barriers. Consequently, cooperation with academia and the chemical industry has to be improved. Human resources issue is indicated as one important premise behind the preceding barrier, along with the indication of the PPI’s resistance towards biorefinery implementation as an innovation. Further, cellulose-based products are acknowledged for near-term product development whereas lignin-based products are emphasized to gain importance in the long-term future.

Keywords: forest biorefinery, pulp and paper, bio-based product, Delphi method

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Authors: Leslie Nobler

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African fabrics based specifically on the Dutch Wax Print, or Ankara, popularized during Africa's colonial era, have had an enormous impact on western fashion (especially in the US and UK), in the last half-decade. The trend has had an effect on the world of visual arts as well, which circuitously, also heavily impacts fashion design. In fashion, and notably in celebrity apparel choices, this is in part due to ‘identity’ and taking pride in one's African roots; in the visual arts, artists such as Yinka Shonibare and Njideka Akunyili Crosby are making statements about identity politics, colonialism up through post-colonialism, and racism. The ‘global village’ brought on by the internet has driven this proliferation, as have improvements in the printing technology with which the Ankara print is made, combining wax-resist with roller printing. The newest patterns can now be designed authentically in western African and easily sent electronically to Europe for printing. Examples of Ankara's new reach across the Atlantic abound. They have taken several paths, which the paper will detail. Briefly, the first is its greater utilization in the fashion world, from authentic textile shops in African American neighborhoods to copied (knocked-off) low-end reproductions in discount chains. Secondly, we are seeing far more uses of these textiles/patterns in important works of fine arts from major museums, in Philadelphia to Palm Beach to the Mass MOCA (in the US), all the way to the Israel Museum in Jerusalem, and everywhere in between. And lastly, but quite significantly, we see this trend throughout social media thanks to Instagram, Pinterest and celebrity photos –even at the recent royal wedding. What shall sustain this major new design direction is that Ankara changes with and adapts to the times. Some of it is now printed in West Africa, often in the Nigeria area. And some may be designed in Europe or even at knock-off apparel studios in NY or Asia. But it stays utterly relevant because the motifs are based on objects and scenes in everyday life. In my design studio and university design classes, this idea is first and foremost, from our big spiritual eye motifs to drawings of our art supplies to the ‘politically-loaded’ chain patterns. This first-hand creativity experience becomes part of the research of this paper, along with historic and contemporary sources of inquiry, both through a literature/image search and anecdotal experience into what is behind this exciting and surprising trend.

Keywords: African wax print, Ankara, identity (politics), textile design, surface design

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Cristina Galiana Carballo, Ibon Doval Martínez

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Urban boundaries often result in a controversial limit between countryside and city in Europe. This territory is normally defined by the very limited land uses and the abundance of open space. The dimension and dynamics of peri-urbanization in the last decades have increased this land stock, which has influenced/impacted in several factors in terms of economic costs (maintenance, transport), ecological disturbances of the territory and changes in inhabitant´s behaviour. In an increasingly urbanised world and a growing urban population, cities also face challenges such as Climate Change. In this context, new near-future corrective trends including circular economies for local food supply or decentralised waste management became key strategies towards more sustainable urban models. Those new solutions need to be planned and implemented considering the potential conflict with current land uses. The city of Vitoria-Gasteiz (Basque Country, Spain) has triplicated land consumption per habitant in 10 years, resulting in a vast extension of low-density urban type confronting rural land and threatening agricultural uses, landscape and urban sustainability. Urban planning allows managing and optimum use allocation based on soil vocation and socio-ecosystem needs, while peri-urban space arises as an opportunity for developing different uses which do not match either within the compact city, not in open agricultural lands, such as medium-size agrocomposting systems or biomass plants. Therefore, a qualitative multi-criteria methodology has been developed for Vitoria-Gasteiz city to assess the spatial definition of peri-urban land. Therefore, a qualitative multi-criteria methodology has been developed for Vitoria-Gasteiz city to assess the spatial definition of peri-urban land. Climate change and circular economy were identified as frameworks where to determine future land, soil vocation and urban planning requirements which eventually become estimations of required local food and renewable energy supply along with alternative waste management system´s implementation. By means of it, it has been developed an urban planning proposal which overcomes urban-non urban dichotomy in Vitoria-Gasteiz. The proposal aims to enhance rural system and improve urban sustainability performance through the normative recognition of an agricultural peri-urban belt.

Keywords: landscape ecology, land-use management, periurban, urban planning

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Authors: Pichaya Poonlarp, Danai Boonyakiat, C. Chuamuangphan, M. Chanta

Abstract:

Current consumers’ behavior trends have changed towards more health awareness, the well-being of society and interest of nature and environment. The Royal Project Foundation is, therefore, well aware of organic agriculture. The project only focused on using natural products and utilizing its highland biological merits to increase resistance to diseases and insects for the produce grown. The project also brought in basic knowledge from a variety of available research information, including, but not limited to, improvement of soil fertility and a control of plant insects with biological methods in order to lay a foundation in developing and promoting farmers to grow quality produce with a high health safety. This will finally lead to sustainability for future highland agriculture and a decrease of chemical use on the highland area which is a source of natural watershed. However, there are still shortcomings of the postharvest management in term of quality and losses, such as bruising, rottenness, wilting and yellowish leaves. These losses negatively affect the maintenance and a shelf life of organic vegetables. Therefore, it is important that a research study of the appropriate and effective postharvest management is conducted for an individual organic vegetable to minimize product loss and find root causes of postharvest losses which would contribute to future postharvest management best practices. This can be achieved through surveys and data collection from postharvest processes in order to conduct analysis for causes of postharvest losses of organic pak-choi, baby pak-choi, and choy sum. Consequently, postharvest losses reduction strategies of organic vegetables can be achieved. In this study, postharvest losses of organic pak choi, baby pak-choi, and choy sum were determined at each stage of the supply chain starting from the field after harvesting, at the Development Center packinghouse, at Chiang Mai packinghouse, at Bangkok packing house and at the Royal Project retail shop in Chiang Mai. The results showed that postharvest losses of organic pak-choi, baby pak-choi, and choy sum were 86.05, 89.05 and 59.03 percent, respectively. The main factors contributing to losses of organic vegetables were due to mechanical damage and underutilized parts and/or short of minimum quality standard. Good practices had been developed after causes of losses were identified. Appropriate postharvest handling and management, for example, temperature control, hygienic cleaning, and reducing the duration of the supply chain, postharvest losses of all organic vegetables should be able to remarkably reduced postharvest losses in the supply chain.

Keywords: postharvest losses, organic vegetables, handling improvement, shelf life, supply chain

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