Search results for: crisis scenarios cycles

Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Meddi Mohamed

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The results of applying the model WEAP 21 or 'Water Evaluation and Planning System' in Upper and Middle Cheliff are presented in cartographic and graphic forms by considering two scenarios: -Reference scenario 1961-1990, -Climate change scenarios (low and high) for 2020 and 2050. These scenarios are presented together in the results and compared them to know the impact on aquatic systems and water resources. For the low scenario for 2050, a decrease in the rate of runoff / infiltration will be 81.4 to 3.7 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. While for the high scenario for 2050, the reduction will be 87.2 to 78.9 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. Comparing the two scenarios, shows that the water supplied will increase by 216.7 Hm3 to 596 Hm3 up to 2050 if we do not take account of climate change. Whereas, if climate change will decrease step by step: from 2010 to 2026: for the climate change scenario (high scenario) by 2050, water supplied from 346 Hm3 to 361 Hm3. That of the reference scenario (1961-1990) will increase to 379.7 Hm3 in 2050. This is caused by the increased demand (increased population, irrigated area, etc ). The balance water management basin is positive for the different Horizons and different situations. If we do not take account of climate change will be the outflow of 5881.4 Hm3. This excess at the basin can be used as part of a transfer for example.

Keywords: balance water, management basin, climate change scenario, Upper and Middle Cheliff

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Nikoletta G. Karytsioti

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The European Union’s function and effectiveness are still an issue that minds, bringing about division even in the member-states interior. Recently, more serious issues have been added in the Union’s malfunction, which affects not only the Union’s function but also their residents’ safety. One of these issues is the migration crisis, which frustrates the European Union’s balances and the stability. The present paper’s aim to frame and interpret the Greek public opinion in basic migration matters, throughout the political philosophy and specifically via John Rawls ‘Theory of Justice’. The theory is deployed to examine if it may be used in a practical way, on a tangible issue and in a specific area. In order to obtain a real frame of the public opinion about the matter of migration, a questionnaire was addressed to Greek people. The sample was chosen for three main reasons: a) Greeks are experienced in the migration as they had migrated in the past, b) many young people migrated the recent years after the debt crisis, c) Greece is a reception state. Being based in the Theory of Justice and specifically in the ‘veil of ignorance’, is tried to overcome the obstacles of human nature’s subjectivity, while examining the variations in the responses per social group. The questionnaire will have demographic questions and special interest questions, related with the crisis, before and after ‘the veil of ignorance’. The paper’s originality comes from the fact that it is the first time that a philosophical theory is used to examine the migration issue in a practical manner. The main goals of the paper are three: - To examine the differences/similarities in the responses before and after the veil of ignorance, - to reveal opinions on migration crisis from E.U. citizens and - to confirm or not the practical usefulness of the Political Philosophy as a highlighting tool

Keywords: European Union, immigrants, migration crisis, political philosophy, theory of justice, veil of ignorance

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Authors: Maha ALjohani, James Blustein

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Communicating users' needs, goals and problems help designers and developers overcome challenges faced by end users. Personas are used to represent end users’ needs. In our research, creating personas allowed the following questions to be answered: Who are the potential user groups? What do they want to achieve by using the service? What are the problems that users face? What should the service provide to them? To develop realistic personas, we conducted a focus group discussion with undergraduate and graduate students and also interviewed a university librarian. The personas were created to help evaluating the Institutional Repository that is based on the DSpace system. The profiles helped to communicate users' needs, abilities, tasks, and problems, and the task scenarios used in the heuristic evaluation were based on these personas. Four personas resulted of a focus group discussion with undergraduate and graduate students and from interviewing a university librarian. We then used these personas to create focused task-scenarios for a heuristic evaluation on the system interface to ensure that it met users' needs, goals, problems and desires. In this paper, we present the process that we used to create the personas that led to devise the task scenarios used in the heuristic evaluation as a follow up study of the DSpace university repository.

Keywords: heuristic evaluation, institutional repositories, user experience, human computer interaction, user profiles, personas, task scenarios, heuristics

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Authors: Hua Chai, Qiangling Duan, Huiqi Cao, Mi Li, Jinhua Sun

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Nitrocellulose (NC), a kind of energetic material, has been widely used in the industrial and military fields. However, this material can also cause serious social disasters due to storage conditions. Thermal hazard of nitrocellulose (NC) was experimentally investigated using the CALVET heat flux calorimeter C80, and three kinds of storage conditions were considered in the experiments: (1) drying time, (2) moisture content, (3) cycles. The results showed that the heat flow curves of NC moved to the low-temperature direction firstly and then slightly moved back by increasing the drying hours. Moisture that was responsible for the appearance of small exothermic peaks was proven to be the unfavorable safety factor yet it could increase the onset temperature of the main peak to some extent. And cycles could both lower the onset temperature and the maximum heat flow but enlarged the peak temperature. Besides, relevant kinetic parameters such as the heat of reaction (ΔH) and the activation energy (Ea) were obtained and compared. It was found that all the three conditions could reduce the values of Ea and most of them produced larger reaction heat. In addition, the critical explosion temperature (Tb) of the NC samples were derived. It was clear that not only the drying time but also the cycles would increase the thermal hazard of the NC. Yet, the right amount of water helped to reduce the thermal hazard.

Keywords: C80, nitrocellulose, storage conditions, the critical explosion temperature, thermal hazard

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Authors: Ria M. Caramoan, Analiza P. Rollon, Karl N. Vergel

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The Simple Interactive Models for Better Air Quality (SIM-air) is an integrated approach model that allows the available information to support the integrated urban air quality management. This study utilized the vehicular air pollution information system module of SIM-air for the assessment of vehicular emissions in Commonwealth Avenue, Quezon City, Philippines. The main objective of the study is to assess and predict the contribution of different types of vehicles to the vehicular emissions in terms of PM₁₀, SOₓ, and NOₓ at different policy and technology scenarios. For the base year 2017, the results show vehicular emissions of 735.46 tons of PM₁₀, 108.90 tons of SOₓ, and 2,101.11 tons of NOₓ. Motorcycle is the major source of particulates contributing about 52% of the PM₁₀ emissions. Meanwhile, Public Utility Jeepneys contribute 27% of SOₓ emissions and private cars using gasoline contribute 39% of NOₓ emissions. Ambient air quality monitoring was also conducted in the study area for the standard parameters of PM₁₀, S0₂, and NO₂. Results show an average of 88.11 µg/Ncm, 47.41 µg/Ncm and 22.54 µg/Ncm for PM₁₀, N0₂, and SO₂, respectively, all were within the DENR National Ambient Air Quality Guideline Values. Future emissions of PM₁₀, NOₓ, and SOₓ are estimated at different scenarios. Results show that in the year 2030, PM₁₀ emissions will be increased by 186.2%. NOₓ emissions and SOₓ emissions will also be increased by 38.9% and 5.5%, without the implementation of the scenarios.

Keywords: ambient air quality, emissions inventory, mobile air pollution, vehicular emissions

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Authors: James P. Takona

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Most of the global population has never lived through a pandemic, and thus there is so much that remains unknown about students' capacity for resiliency under such environments and circumstances and what a timeline for full recovery will look like. The session will guide participants to focus on misinformation and disinformation in the context of recent crisis events, with specific reference to how information flows across. Particular focus will be given to the flow of information in mediated technology and platforms with particular reference to K-12 and teacher preparation program environments. The paper will draw on theories and responses from the sociology of disaster, the social psychology of rumoring, and published studies on disinformation and misinformation. Applications will be identified and applied in the context of online information-sharing during crisis events. The session will offer the application of the Center for Contagious Diseases' Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model to understand the themes and evolution of misinformation and disinformation. The paper will invite session participants to suggest and interact with raised challenges on the impact of dis-and misinformation.

Keywords: Sociology of disaster, misinformation, dis-information, Social Psychology of rumors

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Authors: Sima Hajiazizi

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Tehran is a capital of Iran, with the capitals of the world to natural disasters such as earthquake and flood vulnerable has known. City has stated on three faults, Ray, Mosha, and north according to report of JICA in 2000, the most casualties and destruction was the result of active fault Ray. In 2003, the prevention and management of crisis in Tehran to conduct prevention and rehabilitation of the city, under the Ministry has active. Given the breadth and lack of appropriate access in the city, was considered decentralized management for crisis management support, in each region, in order to position the crisis management headquarters at the time of crises and implementation of programs for prevention and education of the citizens and also to position the bases given in some areas of the neighboring provinces at the time of the accident for help and a number of databases to store food and equipment needed at the time of the disaster. In this study, the bases for one, six, nine and eleven regions of Tehran in the field of management and training are evaluated. Selected areas had local accident and experience of practice for disaster management and local training has been experiencing challenges. The research approach was used qualitative research methods underlying Ground theory. At first, the information obtained through the study of documents and Semi-structured interviews by administrators, officials of training and participant observation in the classroom, line by line, and then it was coded in two stages, by comparing and questioning concepts, categories and extract according to the indicators is obtained from literature studies, subjects were been central. Main articles according to the frequency and importance of the phenomenon were called and they were drawn diagram paradigm and at the end with the intersections phenomena and their causes with indicators extracted from the texts, approach each phenomenon and the effectiveness of the bases was measured. There are two phenomenons in management; 1. The inability to manage the vast and complex crisis events and to resolve minor incidents due to the mismatch between managers. 2. Weaknesses in the implementation of preventive measures and preparedness to manage crisis is causal of situations, fields and intervening. There are five phenomenons in the field of education; 1. In the six-region participation and interest is high. 2. In eleven-region training partnerships for crisis management were to low that next by maneuver in schools and local initiatives such as advertising and use of aid groups have increased. 3. In nine-region, contributions to education in the area of crisis management at the beginning were low that initiatives like maneuver in schools and communities to stimulate and increase participation have increased sensitivity. 4. Managers have been disagreement with the same training in all areas. Finally for the issues that are causing the main issues, with the help of concepts extracted from the literature, recommendations are provided.

Keywords: crises management, crisis management support bases, vulnerability, crisis management headquarters, prevention

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Authors: Ishrat Zakia Sultana

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The solution to the Rohingya crisis has become complicated than it was anticipated. Because of consistent persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide against the Rohingya in Burma, four major influxes of the Rohingya people took place to the neighboring country Bangladesh. After the latest influx of October 2016 and August 2017, the total number of Rohingya in Bangladesh stands somewhere between 900,000 to over one million, placing Bangladesh much ahead with the number of refugees compared to Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Bidibidi in Uganda, and Zaatari in Jordan. While Bangladesh received recognition and appreciation for receiving such a large number of Rohingya, eventually finding a solution to the Rohingya crisis has become a serious problem. The host country and the Rohingya themselves long for repatriation, the most desired solution to the crisis. But going back to their own country is now almost an impossible matter due to the unwillingness of the Myanmar government. The other two options to the solution to Rohingya crisis – reintegration in the host country and third country resettlement – have drawn little attention until now. On the one hand, the geopolitical factors have been making the Rohingya crisis complex. On the other, the war and conflict between Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel have lessening the importance of the Rohingya issue and been diverting the world’s attention from the Rohingya crisis. Clearly, without the support of international community, Bangladesh finds no sustainable way to repatriate 1.1 million Rohingya. Yet, possibilities of a third country resettlement remain unexplored. In the past few years, some countries have expressed interest in accepting the Rohingya as part of third country resettlement but the number they wanted to take is like a drop in the ocean. This paper examines the roadblocks for third country resettlement of the Rohingya. It aims to look at the underlying reasons for which international community is less interested in accepting the Rohingya as refugees. Is it the racial and religious identity of the Rohingya that are considered problematic to the resettlement process? In what ways geopolitical complexities affecting the resettlement issue? How do the Rohingya view third country resettlement? This paper looks for the answers to these questions. The paper is based on qualitative study conducted from 2016-2018 and 2021-2023 in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. The camp management authority, the Rohingya themselves, and the NGOs working in the camp participated in the study.

Keywords: rohingya, refugee, resettlement, bangladesh

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Authors: Sameh Frikha, Mohamed Salah Abid

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We investigate the performance of an integrated cascade (IC) refrigeration system which uses environment friendly zeotropic mixtures. Computational calculation has been carried out by varying pressure level at the evaporator and the condenser of the system. Effects of mass flow rate of the refrigerant on the coefficient of performance (COP) are presented. We show that the integrated cascade system produces ultra-low temperatures in the evaporator by using environment friendly zeotropic mixture.

Keywords: coefficient of performance, environment friendly zeotropic mixture, integrated cascade, ultra low temperature, vapor compression refrigeration cycles

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Authors: S. V. Vasilenkov, O. N. Demina

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Chernobyl NPP accident is the biggest in history of nuclear energetic. Bryansk region of Russia was exposed by the most intensive radiation pollution. For that, we made some researches in order to find the methods of soil rehabilitation on territories, polluted by radionuclides with the means of Cesium 137 leaching by watering. For experiments we took the soil from the upper more polluted 10 cm layer of different species. Cesium 137 leaching was made by different methods in washing columns. Washout of Cesium was made by periodical cycles in terms of 4-6 days. In experiments with easy argillaceous soil with start specific radioactivity 4158 bk/kg through 17 cycles the effective reducing was achieved and contained 1512 bk/kg. Besides, results of researches showed, that in the first 6-10 cycles we can see reducing of washing rate but after application of intensificators: ultrasound water processing, aerification, application of fertilizers (KCl), lime, freezing, we can see increasing of Cesium 137 leaching. The experimental investigations in washout of Cesium (Cs) – 137 from the soil were carried out in the field and laboratorial conditions during its freezing and melting. The experiments showed, that washout of Cesium (Cs) – 137 from the soil is rather high after freezing, than non-frozen soil is. And it conforms to washout of Cesium, made under the influence of the intensificaters. This fact allows to recommend chip and easy to construct technically arrangement for regulation of the snow-melt runoff for rehabilitation of the radioactive impoundment.

Keywords: pollution, radiation, Cesium 137 leaching, agriculture

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Authors: Himanshu Kumar Gupta

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The Jaisalmer Basin is one of the parts of the Rajasthan basin in northwestern India. The presence of five major unconformities/hiatuses of varying span i.e. at the top of Archean basement, Cambrian, Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Eocene have created the foundation for constructing a sequence stratigraphic framework. Based on basin formative tectonic events and their impact on sedimentation processes three first-order sequences have been identified in Rajasthan Basin. These are Proterozoic-Early Cambrian rift sequence, Permian to Middle-Late Eocene shelf sequence and Pleistocene - Recent sequence related to Himalayan Orogeny. The Permian to Middle Eocene I order sequence is further subdivided into three-second order sequences i.e. Permian to Late Jurassic II order sequence, Early to Late Cretaceous II order sequence and Paleocene to Middle-Late Eocene II order sequence. In this study, Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous sequence was identified and log-based interpretation of smaller order T-R cycles have been carried out. A log profile from eastern margin to western margin (up to Shahgarh depression) has been taken. The depositional environment penetrated by the wells interpreted from log signatures gave three major facies association. The blocky and coarsening upward (funnel shape), the blocky and fining upward (bell shape) and the erratic (zig-zag) facies representing distributary mouth bar, distributary channel and marine mud facies respectively. Late Jurassic Formation (Baisakhi-Bhadasar) and Early Cretaceous Formation (Pariwar) shows a lesser number of T-R cycles in shallower and higher number of T-R cycles in deeper bathymetry. Shallowest well has 3 T-R cycles in Baisakhi-Bhadasar and 2 T-R cycles in Pariwar, whereas deeper well has 4 T-R cycles in Baisakhi-Bhadasar and 8 T-R cycles in Pariwar Formation. The Maximum Flooding surfaces observed from the stratigraphy analysis indicate major shale break (high shale content). The study area is dominated by the alternation of shale and sand lithologies, which occurs in an approximate ratio of 70:30. A seismo-geological cross section has been prepared to understand the stratigraphic thickness variation and structural disposition of the strata. The formations are quite thick to the west, the thickness of which reduces as we traverse towards the east. The folded and the faulted strata indicated the compressional tectonics followed by the extensional tectonics. Our interpretation is supported with seismic up to second order sequence indicates - Late Jurassic sequence is a Highstand Systems Tract (Baisakhi - Bhadasar formations), and the Early Cretaceous sequence is Regressive to Lowstand System Tract (Pariwar Formation).

Keywords: Jaisalmer Basin, sequence stratigraphy, system tract, T-R cycle

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Authors: Mirjana Dokmanovic

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The paper will introduce main findings of the research of the responses of the Central European and South Eastern European (CEE/SEE) countries to the global economic and financial crisis in 2008 from human rights and gender perspectives. The research methodology included desk research and qualitative analysis of the available data, studies, statistics, and reports produced by the governments, the UN agencies, international financial institutions (IFIs) and international network of civil society organizations. The main conclusion of the study is that the governments in the region missed to assess the impacts of their anti-crisis policies both ex ante and ex post from the standpoint of human rights and gender equality. Majority of the countries have focused their efforts solely on prompting up the banking and financial sectors, and construction business sectors. The tremendous debt which the states have accumulated for the rescue of banks and industries lead to further cuts in social expenses and reduction of public services. Decreasing state support to health care and social protection and declining family incomes made social services unaffordable for many families. Thus, the economic and financial crisis stirred up the care crisis that was absorbed by women’s intensifying unpaid work within a family and household to manage household survival strategy. On the other hand, increased burden of the care work weakened the position of women in the labour market and their opportunities to find a job. The study indicates that the artificial separation of the real economy and the sphere of social reproduction still persist. This has created additional burden of unpaid work of women within a family. The aim of this paper is to introduce the lessons learnt for future: (a) human rights may not be derogated in the times of crisis; (b) the obligation of states to mitigate negative impacts of economic policies to population, particularly to vulnerable groups, must be prioritized; (c) IFIs and business sector must be liable as duty bearers with respect to human rights commitments.

Keywords: CEE/SEE region, global financial and economic crisis, international financial institutions, human rights commitments, principle of non-derogability of human rights

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: limit cycles, nonlinear dynamical system, real time obstacle avoidance, safety margin

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Authors: Sharifa Alduraibi, Abir El Sadik, Ahmed Elzainy, Alaa Alduraibi, Ahmed Alsolai

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Introduction: Problem-based learning (PBL) is an active student-centered educational modality, influenced by the students' interest that required continuous motivation to improve their engagement. The new era of professional information technology facilitated the utilization of educational multimedia, such as videos, soundtracks, and photographs promoting students' learning. The aim of the present study was to introduce multimedia-enriched PBL scenarios for the first time in college of medicine, Qassim University, as an incentive for better students' engagement. In addition, students' performance and satisfaction were evaluated. Methodology: Two multimedia-enhanced PBL scenarios were implemented to the third years' students in the urinary system block. Radiological images, plain CT scan, and X-ray of the abdomen and renal nuclear scan correlated with their pathological gross photographs were added to the scenarios. One week before the first sessions, pre-recorded orientation videos for PBL tutors were submitted to clarify the multimedia incorporated in the scenarios. Other two traditional PBL scenarios devoid of multimedia demonstrating the pathological and radiological findings were designed. Results and Discussion: Comparison between the formative assessments' results by the end of the two PBL modalities was done. It revealed significant increase in students' engagement, critical thinking and practical reasoning skills during the multimedia-enhanced sessions. Students' perception survey showed great satisfaction with the new strategy. Conclusion: It could be concluded from the current work that multimedia created technology-based teaching strategy inspiring the student for self-directed thinking and promoting students' overall achievement.

Keywords: multimedia, pathology and radiology images, problem-based learning, videos

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Authors: Arun Prasad, P. B. Ramudu, Deep Shikha, Deep Jyoti Singh

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A number of studies have been conducted recently to investigate the influence of randomly oriented fibers on some engineering properties of cohesive soils.Freezing and thawing of soil affects the strength, durability and permeability of soil adversely. Experiments were carried out in order to investigate the effect of inclusion of randomly distributed polypropylene fibers on the strength, hydraulic conductivity and durability of local soil (CL) subjected to freeze–thaw cycles. For evaluating the change in strength of soil, a series of unconfined compression tests as well as tri-axial tests were carried out on reinforced and unreinforced soil samples. All the samples were subjected to seven cycles of freezing and thawing. Freezing was carried out at a temperature of - 15 to -18 °C; and thawing was carried out by keeping the samples at room temperature. The reinforcement of soil samples was done by mixing with polypropylene fibers, 12 mm long and with an aspect ratio of 240. The content of fibers was varied from 0.25 to 1% by dry weight of soil. The maximum strength of soil was found in samples having a fiber content of 0.75% for all the samples that were prepared at optimum moisture content (OMC), and if the OMC was increased (+2% OMC) or decreased (-2% OMC), the maximum strength observed at 0.5% fiber inclusion. The effect of fiber inclusion and freeze–thaw on the hydraulic conductivity was studied increased from around 25 times to 300 times that of the unreinforced soil, without subjected to any freeze-thaw cycles. For studying the increased durability of soil, mass loss after each freeze-thaw cycle was calculated and it was found that samples reinforced with polypropylene fibers show 50-60% less loss in weight than that of the unreinforced soil.

Keywords: fiber reinforcement, freezingand thawing, hydraulic conductivity, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Victoria Wolf, Renata Dobrucka, Robert Prezkop, Stephan Haubold

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The COVID-19 causes a worldwide crisis and has an impact in every dimension of the economy. Organizations with the ability to adapt to new developments and which innovate solutions for the disrupted world during and after the Corona crises have the opportunity to not only survive the crisis but rather to use new trends to implement new business models and gain advantage. In this context, startups seem to have better opportunities to manage the Corona crisis through their innovation-based nature. The main result of this paper is the understanding that by applying a startup orientated innovation (SOCI) strategy, established companies can be motivated to meet the challenge of COVID-19 in a similar way like startups. This result can be achieved by describing the role of innovation and a SOCI strategy as helpful methods for organizations to meet the coming challenges during and after the COVID-19 epidemics. In addition to this, this paper presents a practical application of SOCI through the PANDA approach of the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in Germany and discuss it in the context of COVID-19 as an exemplary successful real-world implementation of SOCI strategy.

Keywords: Covid-19, innovation, open innovation, startup, soci framework

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Marcus Walter, Norbert Nitzsche, Dirk Odenthal, Steffen Müller

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This contribution presents a friction estimator for industrial purposes which identifies Coulomb friction in a steering system. The estimator only needs a few, usually known, steering system parameters. Friction occurs on almost every mechanical system and has a negative influence on high-precision position control. This is demonstrated on a steering angle controller for highly automated driving. In this steering system the friction induces limit cycles which cause oscillating vehicle movement when the vehicle follows a given reference trajectory. When compensating the friction with the introduced estimator, limit cycles can be suppressed. This is demonstrated by measurements in a series vehicle.

Keywords: friction estimation, friction compensation, steering system, lateral vehicle guidance

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdizadeh, Sara Miri

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Due to the recent events surrounding the global health crisis and the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the activities of many businesses and start-up companies have been disrupted. It solves many economic problems and can reduce unemployment in countries because governments can take advantage of their potential without direct investment. However, with the help of their innovative ideas and new technologies, these companies can develop and grow the economy. But it is essential to consider that there will be no guarantee of their success in the event of unforeseen events, as the coronavirus outbreak in the last two years has seriously damaged these companies and, like other businesses, challenges and stagnation have started. The startup companies' challenge in the face of coronavirus begins with its impact on customers. Changing customer behavior can affect their products and distribution channels. On the other hand, to prevent countless losses in this crisis, startup companies require creative solutions to address challenges in various areas of human capital, supply chain management, sales and marketing, and so on. Therefore, all business leaders must consider and plan for the current crisis and the future; after overcoming these conditions and returning to regular business routines, it will no longer be an option, and new situations will prevail in a competitive environment. The essential strategies for developing and growing startups during the Coronavirus outbreak can be connecting with the global startup ecosystem, hosting webinars, providing podcasts and free question and answer sessions, mentoring services to growing teams, and consulting pointed out this to firms for digitalization.

Keywords: business, COVID-19, digitalization, startups

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Donna L. Roberts

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2019 marked 23 years since Purdue Pharma launched its flagship drug, OxyContin, that unleashed an unprecedented epidemic touching both celebrities and common citizens, metropolitan, suburbia and rural areas and all levels of socioeconomic status. From rural Appalachia to East LA individuals, families and communities have been devastated by a trajectory of addiction that often began with the legitimate prescription of a pain killer for anything from a tooth extraction to a sports injury to recovery from surgery or chronic arthritis. Far from being a serendipitous progression of events, the proliferation of this new breed of 'miracle drug' was instead a carefully crafted marketing program aimed at both the medical community and common citizens. This research represents and in-depth investigation of the evolution of the marketing, distribution and promotion of prescription opioids by pharmaceutical companies and its relationship to the propagation of the opioid crisis. Specifically, key components of Purdue Pharma’s aggressive marketing campaign, including its bonus system and sales incentives, were analyzed in the context of the sociopolitical environment that essential created the proverbial 'perfect storm' for the changing manner in which pain is treated in the U.S. The analyses of these series of events clearly indicate their role in first, the increase in prescription of opioids for non-terminal pain relief and subsequently, the incidence of related addiction, overdose, and death. Through this examination of the conditions that facilitated and maintained this drug crisis, perhaps we can begin to chart a course toward its resolution.

Keywords: addiction, opioid, opioid crisis, Purdue Pharma

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: M. N. Islam, B. Boswell, Y. R. Ginting

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The influence of canned cycles and cutting parameters on hole quality in cryogenic drilling has been investigated experimentally and analytically. A three-level, three-parameter experiment was conducted by using the design-of-experiment methodology. The three levels of independent input parameters were the following: for canned cycles—a chip-breaking canned cycle (G73), a spot drilling canned cycle (G81), and a deep hole canned cycle (G83); for feed rates—0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 mm/rev; and for cutting speeds—60, 75, and 100 m/min. The selected work and tool materials were aluminum 6061-6T and high-speed steel (HSS), respectively. For cryogenic cooling, liquid nitrogen (LN2) was used and was applied externally. The measured output parameters were the three widely used quality characteristics of drilled holes—diameter error, circularity, and surface roughness. Pareto ANOVA was applied for analyzing the results. The findings revealed that the canned cycle has a significant effect on diameter error (contribution ratio 44.09%) and small effects on circularity and surface finish (contribution ratio 7.25% and 6.60%, respectively). The best results for the dimensional accuracy and surface roughness were achieved by G81. G73 produced the best circularity results; however, for dimensional accuracy, it was the worst level.

Keywords: circularity, diameter error, drilling canned cycle, pareto ANOVA, surface roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Murat Çolak, Elifnaz Tanyıldızı

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Today, human mobility with globalization has increased the interaction between countries significantly; although this contact has advanced societies in terms of civilization, it has also increased the likelihood of pandemics. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused the most loss of life among them, turned into a global epidemic by covering the whole world in a short time. While there was an explosion in demand in some businesses around the world, some businesses temporarily stopped or had to stop their activities. The businesses affected by the crisis had to adapt to the new legal regulations but had to make changes in matters such as their working styles, human resources practices, and policies. One of the measures taken into account is the reduction of the workforce. The current COVID-19 crisis has posed serious challenges for many organizations and has generated an unprecedented wave of termination notices. This study examined examples of companies affected by the pandemic process and changed their working policies after the pandemic. This study aims to reveal the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on human resources policies and employees and how these situations will affect businesses in the future.

Keywords: human resource management, crisis management, COVID-19, business function

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Zbigniew Olczykowski

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The paper presents the impact of work on the electric arc furnace power grid. The arc furnace operating will be modeled at different power conditions of steelworks. The paper will describe how to determine the increase in voltage fluctuations caused by working in parallel arc furnaces. The analysis of indicators characterizing the quality of electricity recorded during several cycles of measurement made at the same time at three points grid, with different power and different short-circuit rated voltage, will be carried out. The measurements analysis presented in this paper were conducted in the mains of one of the Polish steel. The indicators characterizing the quality of electricity was recorded during several cycles of measurement while making measurements at three points of different power network short-circuit power and various voltage ratings. Measurements of power quality indices included the one-week measurement cycles in accordance with the EN-50160. Data analysis will include the results obtained during the simultaneous measurement of three-point grid. This will determine the actual propagation of interference generated by the device. Based on the model studies and measurements of quality indices of electricity we will establish the effect of a specific arc on the mains. The short-circuit power network’s minimum value will also be estimated, this is necessary to limit the voltage fluctuations generated by arc furnaces.

Keywords: arc furnaces, long-term flicker, measurement and modeling of power quality, voltage fluctuations

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Leja Salciute

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Mental health difficulties are one of the reasons for abnormal feeding behaviour. This is especially evident in a crisis situation. Abnormal feeding behaviour occurs when individuals use food as a method to provide relief for these negative emotions. The study aimed to discover an association between emotional regulation, mental health difficulties and disruption in feeding behaviours in the UK in times of crisis. A mixed-methods design was used. Abnormal feeding behaviour was measured using the Binge Eating Disorder Screener-7, SCOFF scale, Crisis impact scale, Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale and demographics. The sample comprised 342 participants with a history of excessive overeating. The participants (male= 198, female= 141 and other= 3) came from the general population and they were aged 16 and over. Participants ranged in age from 16 to 89. Findings from the survey concluded that difficulties with emotion regulation were found to be associated with abnormal feeding behaviours. Mental health difficulties correlated significantly with changes in individuals’ lives, such as work or routines. Individuals differed in their abnormal feeding behaviour in terms of their age, that is, younger individuals showed less struggle with their eating patterns while older individuals faced greater struggles with their abnormal feeding behaviour. Emotion regulation significantly influenced abnormal feeding behaviour. Results from qualitative data suggest four common themes that were identified: demonstration of gratitude, negative emotions, disruptions to social life, and financial loss. For example, participants developed and gained an awareness of being grateful for the simple things in life even when participants experienced hardships. The results also suggested that emotional eating acted like a sedative that allowed the participant to run away from their painful reality. Crisis situation negatively affected relationships among participants and induced negativity related to social interaction. Finally, the respondents highlighted that the presence of uncertainty made it hard to plan ahead and look forward to the future. Although respondents experienced negative emotions and financial losses, some of them still managed to allocate time for themselves and enjoy their time off during crisis. However, majority of respondents referred to their inability to control their external circumstances and turned to and relied upon food overconsumption instead. This had a negative effect on their mental health and presented disruptions in feeding behaviour. It was recommended for individuals in times of crisis to seek psychological support in the form of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT).

Keywords: binge eating, maladaptive eating behaviours, mental health, negative emotions in crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Edison A. Bonifaz

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In this work, a numerical procedure is proposed to design dense multi-material structures using the Directed Energy Deposition (DED) process. A thermo-mechanical finite element model to predict thermal cycles and residual stresses is presented. A numerical layer build-up procedure coupled with a moving heat flux was constructed to minimize strains and residual stresses that result in the multi-layer deposition of an AISI 316 austenitic steel on an AISI 304 austenitic steel substrate. To simulate the DED process, the automated interface of the ABAQUS AM module was used to define element activation and heat input event data as a function of time and position. Of this manner, the construction of ABAQUS user-defined subroutines was not necessary. Thermal cycles and thermally induced stresses created during the multi-layer deposition metal AM pool crystallization were predicted and validated. Results were analyzed in three independent metal layers of three different experiments. The one-way heat and material deposition toolpath used in the analysis was created with a MatLab path script. An optimal combination of feedstock and heat input printing parameters suitable for fabricating multi-material dense structures in the directed energy deposition metal AM process was established. At constant power, it can be concluded that the lower the heat input, the lower the peak temperatures and residual stresses. It means that from a design point of view, the one-way heat and material deposition processing toolpath with the higher welding speed should be selected.

Keywords: event series, thermal cycles, residual stresses, multi-pass welding, abaqus am modeler

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Petra Buzkova, Milos Kopa

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Reliability of the credit default swap market had been questioned repeatedly during the EMU debt crisis. The article examines whether this development influenced sovereign EMU CDS prices in general. We regress the CDS market price on a model risk neutral CDS price obtained from an adopted reduced form valuation model in the 2009-2013 period. We look for a break point in the single-equation and multi-equation econometric models in order to show the changes in relations between CDS market and model prices. Our results differ according to the risk profile of a country. We find that in the case of riskier countries, the relationship between the market and model price changed when market participants started to question the ability of CDS contracts to protect their buyers. Specifically, it weakened after the change. In the case of less risky countries, the change happened earlier and the effect of a weakened relationship is not observed.

Keywords: chow stability test, credit default swap, debt crisis, reduced form valuation model, seemingly unrelated regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Jiri Barta, Jiří F. Urbanek

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This paper deals with a protection of the national and European infrastructure. It is issue nowadays. The paper deals with the perspectives and possibilities of "smart solutions" to critical infrastructure protection. The research project deals with computers aided technologies are used from the perspective of new, better protection of selected infrastructure objects. Protection is focused on communication and information channels. These communication and information channels are very important for the functioning of the system of protection of critical infrastructure elements.

Keywords: interoperability, communication systems, controlling proces, critical infrastructure, crisis workplaces, continuity

Procedia PDF Downloads 299