Search results for: coherent forecasts

Authors: Erinda Male

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Participation of a lawyer in any criminal proceedings on behalf of an accused person or a victim is essential to a fair trial. Legal representation is particularly crucial in proceedings before international tribunals, especially in the International Criminal Court. The paper thus focuses on the importance of the legal representation of victims and defendants before the ICC, as well as on the role of the legal representative in the proceedings before the court and the principle of freedom of choice of legal representatives. Also, the paper presents a short overview of the significance of legal representatives for victims and the necessity to protect their primary role in the ICC system, and ensure that it is coherent and respectful of victims’ rights. Victim participation is an important part of the ICC Statute and it is designed to help ensure that those most affected by the crimes are able to engage with the Court. Proper and quality legal representation ensures meaningful participation of victims at stages of the proceedings before ICC. Finally, the paper acknowledges the role of legal representatives during the pre-trial, trial and post-trial phase, the different modalities in selecting the legal representatives as well as balancing victims’ participation with the right of the accused to a fair trial.

Keywords: fair trial, freedom of choice principle, international criminal court, legal representatives, victims

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Authors: Nebila Lichiheb, LaToya Myles, William Pendergrass, Bruce Hicks, Dawson Cagle

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Atmospheric transport of hazardous materials in urban areas is increasingly under investigation due to the potential impact on human health and the environment. In response to health and safety concerns, several dispersion models have been developed to analyze and predict the dispersion of hazardous contaminants. The models of interest usually rely on meteorological information obtained from the meteorological models of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). However, due to the complexity of the urban environment, NWS forecasts provide an inadequate basis for dispersion computation in urban areas. A dense meteorological network in Washington, DC, called DCNet, has been operated by NOAA since 2003 to support the development of urban monitoring methodologies and provide the driving meteorological observations for atmospheric transport and dispersion models. This study focuses on the comparison of wind observations from the DCNet station on the U.S. Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building against the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model outputs for the period 2017-2019. The goal is to develop a simple methodology for modifying NAM outputs so that the dispersion requirements of the city and its urban area can be satisfied. This methodology will allow us to quantify the prediction errors of the NAM model and propose adjustments of key variables controlling dispersion model calculation.

Keywords: meteorological data, Washington D.C., DCNet data, NAM model

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Authors: Sofiane Grira, Hichem Eleuch

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We explore the analytical soliton-pair solutions for unbalanced coupling between the two coherent lights and the atomic transitions in a dissipative three-level system in lambda configuration. The two allowed atomic transitions are interacting resonantly with two laser fields. For unbalanced coupling, it is possible to derive an explicit solution for non-linear differential equations describing the soliton-pair propagation in this three-level system with the same velocity. We suppose that the spontaneous emission rates from the excited state to both ground states are the same. In this work, we focus on such case where we consider the coupling between the transitions and the optical fields are unbalanced. The existence conditions for the soliton-pair propagations are determined. We will show that there are four possible configurations of the soliton-pair pulses. Two of them can be interpreted as a couple of solitons with same directions of polarization and the other two as soliton-pair with opposite directions of polarization. Due to the fact that solitons have stable shapes while propagating in the considered media, they are insensitive to noise and dispersion. Our results have potential applications in data transfer with the soliton-pair pulses, where a dissipative three-level medium could be a realistic model for the optical communication media.

Keywords: non-linear differential equations, solitons, wave propagations, optical fiber

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Authors: Salah Gariani, Islam Shyha, Fawad Inam, Dehong Huo

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A controlled cutting fluid impinging supply system (CUT-LIST) was developed to deliver an accurate amount of cutting fluid into the machining zone via well-positioned coherent nozzles based on a calculation of the heat generated. The performance of the CUT-LIST was evaluated against a conventional flood cutting fluid supply system during step shoulder milling of Ti-6Al-4V using vegetable oil-based cutting fluid. In this paper, the micro-hardness of the machined surface was used as the main criterion to compare the two systems. CUT-LIST provided significant reductions in cutting fluid consumption (up to 42%). Both systems caused increased micro-hardness value at 100 µm from the machined surface, whereas a slight reduction in micro-hardness of 4.5% was measured when using CUL-LIST. It was noted that the first 50 µm is the soft sub-surface promoted by thermal softening, whereas down to 100 µm is the hard sub-surface caused by the cyclic internal work hardening and then gradually decreased until it reached the base material nominal hardness. It can be concluded that the CUT-LIST has always given lower micro-hardness values near the machined surfaces in all conditions investigated.

Keywords: impinging supply system, micro-hardness, shoulder milling, Ti-6Al-4V, vegetable oil-based cutting fluid

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Vitor S. Mendonca, Maria Luisa S. Schmidt

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The Brazilian medical profession is viewed as being error-free, so healthcare professionals who commit an error are condemned there. Medical errors occur frequently in the Brazilian healthcare system, so identifying better options for handling this issue has become of interest primarily for physicians. The purpose of this study is to better understand the tensions involved in the fear of making an error due to the harm and risk this would represent for those involved. A qualitative study was performed by means of the narratives of the lived experiences of ten acting physicians in the State of Sao Paulo. The concept and characterization of errors were discussed, together with the fear of making an error, the near misses or error in itself, how to deal with errors and what to do to avoid them. The analysis indicates an excessive pressure in the medical profession for error-free practices, with a well-established physician-patient relationship to facilitate the management of medical errors. The error occurs, but a lack of information and discussion often leads to its concealment due to fear or possible judgment by society or peers. The establishment of programs that encourage appropriate medical conduct in the event of an error requires coherent answers for humanization in Brazilian medical science. It is necessary to improve the discussion about medical errors and disseminate models of communication and notification of errors in Brazil.

Keywords: medical error, narrative, physician-patient relationship, qualitative research

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Authors: G. Punithavathy

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The research proposes a statistical model for the distributed acoustic sensor interrogation units that broadcast a laser pulse into the fiber optics, where interactions within the fiber determine the localized acoustic energy that causes light reflections known as backscatter. The backscattered signal's amplitude and phase can be calculated using explicit equations. The created model makes amplitude signal spectrum and autocorrelation predictions that are confirmed by experimental findings. Phase signal characteristics that are useful for researching optical time domain reflectometry (OTDR) system sensing applications are provided and examined, showing good agreement with the experiment. The experiment was successfully done with the use of Python coding. In this research, we can analyze the entire distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) component parts separately. This model assumes that the fiber is in a static condition, meaning that there is no external force or vibration applied to the cable, that means no external acoustic disturbances present. The backscattered signal consists of a random noise component, which is caused by the intrinsic imperfections of the fiber, and a coherent component, which is due to the laser pulse interacting with the fiber.

Keywords: distributed acoustic sensing, optical fiber devices, optical time domain reflectometry, Rayleigh scattering

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Authors: S. Pramanik

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Since the early ages, the Hindu temples have been interpreted through various Vedic philosophies. These temples are visited by pilgrims which demonstrate the rituals and religious belief of communities, reflecting a variety of actions and behaviors. Darsana— a direct seeing, is a part of the pilgrimage activity. During the process of Darsana, a devotee is prepared for entry in the temple to realize the cognizing Truth culminating in visualizing the idol of God, placed at the Garbhagriha (sanctum sanctorum). For this, the pilgrim must pass through a sequential arrangement of spaces. During the process of progress, the pilgrims visualize the spaces differently from various points of views. The viewpoints create a variety of spatial patterns in the minds of pilgrims coherent to the Hindu philosophies. The space organization and its order are perceived by various techniques of spatial analysis. A temple, as examples of Kalinga stylistic variations, has been chosen for the study. This paper intends to demonstrate some visual patterns generated during the process of Darsana (visibility) and its accessibility by Point Isovist Studies and Visibility Graph Analysis from the entrance (Simha Dwara) to The Sanctum sanctorum (Garbhagriha).

Keywords: Hindu temple architecture, point isovist, space syntax analysis, visibility graph analysis

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Authors: Abdon O. Makore

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The study analyses policy and institutional implications with regard to the successful implementation of IPTS in Harare. IPTS has widely been recommended as a rich solution to chaotic public transport operations, yet studies to determine the suitability or applicability of this concept have not been done in light of the existing transport institutions and policy framework in Harare. A predominantly qualitative research approach was employed backed by a deep scrutiny of the NTP and other subsidiary legislations and plans in place so as to ascertain the views and perceptions of various stakeholders regarding the proposed concept. As such, key informant interviews, unstructured interviews, and questionnaires were vital tools in gathering data and these were effectively buttressed by observations, photography, and documentary analysis. The study revealed from a policy perspective that there are high prospects for the implementation of IPTS in Harare as the existing NTP, subsidiary legislations and plans do have provisions for the concept backed by keen interest of all responsible urban public transport authorities. However, there is lack of coherent and systematic approach among other responsible institutions, as such recommendations formulated advocated for institutional integration and strong political will for the ultimate success of the concept.

Keywords: integrated public transport system, policy, legislation, institutions

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Authors: Torsten Mielitz, Dietmar Schulz, York C. Roth

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Market forecasts show a significant increase in the demand for aircraft within the next two decades and production rates will be adapted accordingly. Improvements and optimizations in the industrial system are becoming more important to cope with future challenges in manufacturing and assembly. Highest quality standards have to be met for aerospace parts, whereas cost effective production in industrial systems and methodologies are also a key driver. A look at other industries like e.g., automotive shows well established processes to streamline existing manufacturing systems. In this paper, the implementation of 'PULL' principles in an existing manufacturing process chain for a large scale composite part is presented. A nonlinear extrapolation based on 'Little's Law' showed a risk of a significant increase of parts needed in the process chain to meet future demand. A project has been set up to mitigate the risk whereas the methodology has been changed from a traditional milestone approach in the beginning towards an agile way of working in the end in order to facilitate immediate benefits in the shop-floor. Finally, delivery rates could be increased avoiding more semi-finished parts in the process chain (work in progress & inventory) by the successful implementation of the 'PULL' philosophy in the shop-floor between the work stations. Lessons learned during the running project as well as implementation and operations phases are discussed in order to share best practices.

Keywords: aerospace composite part manufacturing, PULL principles, shop-floor implementation, lessons learned

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Authors: Sakir Tasdemir, Mustafa Altin, Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Sadiye Didem Boztepe Erkis, Ismail Saritas, Selma Tasdemir

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Artificial intelligence applications are commonly used in industry in many fields in parallel with the developments in the computer technology. In this study, a fire room was prepared for the resistance of wooden construction elements and with the mechanism here, the experiments of polished materials were carried out. By utilizing from the experimental data, an artificial neural network (ANN) was modeled in order to evaluate the final cross sections of the wooden samples remaining from the fire. In modelling, experimental data obtained from the fire room were used. In the system developed, the first weight of samples (ws-gr), preliminary cross-section (pcs-mm2), fire time (ft-minute), fire temperature (t-oC) as input parameters and final cross-section (fcs-mm2) as output parameter were taken. When the results obtained from ANN and experimental data are compared after making statistical analyses, the data of two groups are determined to be coherent and seen to have no meaning difference between them. As a result, it is seen that ANN can be safely used in determining cross sections of wooden materials after fire and it prevents many disadvantages.

Keywords: artificial neural network, final cross-section, fire retardant polishes, fire safety, wood resistance.

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Authors: Anjalika Fernando, Banuka Athuraliya

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This paper presents a comprehensive approach for converting Sinhala Sign Language (SSL) into grammatically correct sentences using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques in real-time. While previous studies have explored various aspects of SSL translation, the research gap lies in the absence of grammar checking for SSL. This work aims to bridge this gap by proposing a two-stage methodology that leverages deep learning models to detect signs and translate them into coherent sentences, ensuring grammatical accuracy. The first stage of the approach involves the utilization of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model to recognize and interpret SSL signs. By training the LSTM model on a dataset of SSL gestures, it learns to accurately classify and translate these signs into textual representations. The LSTM model achieves a commendable accuracy rate of 94%, demonstrating its effectiveness in accurately recognizing and translating SSL gestures. Building upon the successful recognition and translation of SSL signs, the second stage of the methodology focuses on improving the grammatical correctness of the translated sentences. The project employs a Neural Machine Translation (NMT) architecture, consisting of an encoder and decoder with LSTM components, to enhance the syntactical structure of the generated sentences. By training the NMT model on a parallel corpus of Sinhala wrong sentences and their corresponding grammatically correct translations, it learns to generate coherent and grammatically accurate sentences. The NMT model achieves an impressive accuracy rate of 98%, affirming its capability to produce linguistically sound translations. The proposed approach offers significant contributions to the field of SSL translation and grammar correction. Addressing the critical issue of grammar checking, it enhances the usability and reliability of SSL translation systems, facilitating effective communication between hearing-impaired and non-sign language users. Furthermore, the integration of deep learning techniques, such as LSTM and NMT, ensures the accuracy and robustness of the translation process. This research holds great potential for practical applications, including educational platforms, accessibility tools, and communication aids for the hearing-impaired. Furthermore, it lays the foundation for future advancements in SSL translation systems, fostering inclusive and equal opportunities for the deaf community. Future work includes expanding the existing datasets to further improve the accuracy and generalization of the SSL translation system. Additionally, the development of a dedicated mobile application would enhance the accessibility and convenience of SSL translation on handheld devices. Furthermore, efforts will be made to enhance the current application for educational purposes, enabling individuals to learn and practice SSL more effectively. Another area of future exploration involves enabling two-way communication, allowing seamless interaction between sign-language users and non-sign-language users.In conclusion, this paper presents a novel approach for converting Sinhala Sign Language gestures into grammatically correct sentences using NLP techniques in real time. The two-stage methodology, comprising an LSTM model for sign detection and translation and an NMT model for grammar correction, achieves high accuracy rates of 94% and 98%, respectively. By addressing the lack of grammar checking in existing SSL translation research, this work contributes significantly to the development of more accurate and reliable SSL translation systems, thereby fostering effective communication and inclusivity for the hearing-impaired community

Keywords: Sinhala sign language, sign Language, NLP, LSTM, NMT

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Authors: Elisabet Liljeblad, Tomas Karlsson, Torbjorn Sundberg, Anita Kullen

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The magnetospheric magnetic field data from the MESSENGER spacecraft is investigated to establish the presence of ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in connection to 131 previously observed nonlinear Kelvin-Helmholtz waves (KHWs) at Mercury. Distinct ULF signatures are detected in 44 out of the 131 magnetospheric traversals prior to or after observing a KHW. In particular, 39 of these 44 ULF events are highly coherent at the frequency of maximum power spectral density. The waves observed at the dayside, which appears mainly at the duskside and naturally following the KHW occurrence asymmetry, are significantly different to the events behind the dawn-dusk terminator and have the following distinct wave characteristics: they oscillate clearly in the perpendicular (azimuthal) direction to the mean magnetic field with a wave normal angle more in the parallel than the perpendicular direction, increase in absolute ellipticity with distance from noon, are almost exclusively right-hand polarized, and are observed mainly for frequencies in the range 0.02-0.04 Hz. These results indicate that the dayside ULF waves are likely to shear Alfvén waves driven by KHWs at the magnetopause, which in turn manifests the importance of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in terms of mass transport throughout the Mercury magnetosphere.

Keywords: ultra-low frequency waves, kelvin-Helmholtz instability, magnetospheric processes, mercury, messenger, energy and momentum transfer in planetary environments

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Authors: Ikediobi Lottanna Samuel

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Days are gone when perpetrators of core international crimes hide under the cloak of sovereignty to go with impunity. The principle of international criminal responsibility is a reality. This move to end impunity for violation of human rights has led to the creation of international and hybrid tribunals, a permanent international criminal court, and increased prosecution of human rights violations in domestic courts. This article examines the attempts by the international community to bring perpetrators of heinous crimes to book. The work reveals the inadequacy of the current international mechanism for prosecuting core international crimes in order to end the culture of impunity and entrench the culture of accountability. It also identifies that ad hoc international criminal tribunals and the international criminal court face similar challenges ranging from lack of cooperation by nation states, non-existence of hierarchy of crimes, lack of effective enforcement mechanism, limited prosecutorial capacity and agenda, difficulty in apprehending suspects, difficulty in blending different legal tradition, absence of a coherent sentencing guideline, distant location of courts, selective indictment, etc. These challenges adversely affect the functioning of these courts. It is suggested that a more helpful way to end impunity would be to have a more robust and synergistic relationship between national, regional, and international approaches to prosecuting core international crimes.

Keywords: prosecution, criminal, international, tribunal, justice, ad hoc

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Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

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Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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Authors: Salim Yusif

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Fiber optic technology has revolutionized telecommunications and data transmission, providing unmatched speed, bandwidth, and reliability. This paper presents the latest advancements in fiber optic technology, focusing on innovations in fiber materials, transmission techniques, and network architectures that enhance the performance of high-speed data transmission systems. Key advancements include the development of ultra-low-loss optical fibers, multi-core fibers, advanced modulation formats, and the integration of fiber optics into next-generation network architectures such as Software-Defined Networking (SDN) and Network Function Virtualization (NFV). Additionally, recent developments in fiber optic sensors are discussed, extending the utility of optical fibers beyond data transmission. Through comprehensive analysis and experimental validation, this research offers valuable insights into the future directions of fiber optic technology, highlighting its potential to drive innovation across various industries.

Keywords: fiber optics, high-speed data transmission, ultra-low-loss optical fibers, multi-core fibers, modulation formats, coherent detection, software-defined networking, network function virtualization, fiber optic sensors

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Authors: Hao Li, Guy Y. Cornejo Maceda, Yiqing Li, Jianguo Tan, Marek Morzynski, Bernd R. Noack

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We propose an automated analysis of the flow control behaviour from an ensemble of control laws and associated time-resolved flow snapshots. The input may be the rich database of machine learning control (MLC) optimizing a feedback law for a cost function in the plant. The proposed methodology provides (1) insights into the control landscape, which maps control laws to performance, including extrema and ridge-lines, (2) a catalogue of representative flow states and their contribution to cost function for investigated control laws and (3) visualization of the dynamics. Key enablers are classification and feature extraction methods of machine learning. The analysis is successfully applied to the stabilization of a mixing layer with sensor-based feedback driving an upstream actuator. The fluctuation energy is reduced by 26%. The control replaces unforced Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices with subsequent vortex pairing by higher-frequency Kelvin-Helmholtz structures of lower energy. These efforts target a human interpretable, fully automated analysis of MLC identifying qualitatively different actuation regimes, distilling corresponding coherent structures, and developing a digital twin of the plant.

Keywords: machine learning control, mixing layer, feedback control, model-free control

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Authors: Fatemeh Nejati, Farah Habib, Sayeh Goudarzi

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Architecture and structure have always been closely interrelated so that they should be integrated into a unified, coherent and beautiful universe, while in the contemporary era, both structures and architecture proceed separately. The purpose of architecture is the art of creating form and space and order for human service, and the goal of the structural engineer is the transfer of loads to the structure, too. This research seeks to achieve the goal by looking at the relationship between the form of architecture and structure from its inception to the present day to the Global Identification and Management Plan. Finally, by identifying the main components of the design of the structure in interaction with the architectural form, an effective step is conducted in the Professional training direction and solutions to professionals. Therefore, after reviewing the evolution of structural and architectural coordination in various historical periods as well as how to reach the form of the structure in different times and places, components are required to test the components and present the final theory that one hundred to be tested in this regard. Finally, this research indicates the fact that the form of architecture and structure has an aesthetic link, which is influenced by a number of components that could be edited and has a regular order throughout history that could be regular. The research methodology is analytic, and it is comparative using analytical and matrix diagrams and diagrams and tools for conducting library research and interviewing.

Keywords: architecture, structural form, structural and architectural coordination, effective components, aesthetics

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Nadia Pourabbas Tahvildari

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National identity is formed in the process of time and in the community while influenced by the historical events. The country which has a more coherent national and historical identity would be successful as well as strengthening solidarity and social cohesion. Among the international community where the various likes challenge the subject of identity, taking into consideration the components which using identity seems to be very critical. Handicrafts as reflecting the historical and cultural characteristics of the product location can be used as an important component in order to introduce the culture and identity to be evaluated. As one of the most durable crafts for man, handicrafts have played a continuous role in sustaining human culture. Today without the presence of handicrafts, restoration of culture and national identity and religious beliefs of the past clans and people, is not only difficult but is even impossible also. Due to its brilliant historical experience and having rich culture and civilization, Iran has accomplished to the high competence in the field of traditional arts and handicrafts. This article is a scientific approach which by using descriptive – analytic method based on library studies tried to address the issue of handicrafts looking to examine the position of the industry to consolidate the national identity. Studies indicate that Iran as one of the original human habitats in the field of handicrafts has adequate enrichment and in case there will be an appropriate planning and investment away from oil-based industry, it would be beneficent. Furthermore, the quality and variety of handicrafts can be used as an essential yardstick for the consolidation of Iran national identity in the age of globalization.

Keywords: handicrafts, Iran national identity, globalization, cultural heritage

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: climate change, Coastal Vulnerability Index, global warming, sea level rise

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Authors: Mamadou Dione, Eric Matzner-lober, Philippe Alexandre

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The Energy Transition Act defined by the French State has precise implications on Renewable Energies, in particular on its remuneration mechanism. Until then, a purchase obligation contract permitted the sale of wind-generated electricity at a fixed rate. Tomorrow, it will be necessary to sell this electricity on the Market (at variable rates) before obtaining additional compensation intended to reduce the risk. This sale on the market requires to announce in advance (about 48 hours before) the production that will be delivered on the network, so to be able to predict (in the short term) this production. The fundamental problem remains the variability of the Wind accentuated by the geographical situation. The objective of the project is to provide, every day, short-term forecasts (48-hour horizon) of wind production using weather data. The predictions of the GFS model and those of the ECMWF model are used as explanatory variables. The variable to be predicted is the production of a wind farm. We do two approaches: a direct approach that predicts wind generation directly from weather data, and an integrated approach that estimâtes wind from weather data and converts it into wind power by power curves. We used machine learning techniques to predict this production. The models tested are random forests, CART + Bagging, CART + Boosting, SVM (Support Vector Machine). The application is made on a wind farm of 22MW (11 wind turbines) of the Compagnie du Vent (that became Engie Green France). Our results are very conclusive compared to the literature.

Keywords: forecast aggregation, machine learning, spatio-temporal dynamics modeling, wind power forcast

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Authors: Alexandros Pournaras, Anastasia Papadopoulou, Serafim Kontos, Anastasios Karakostas

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The air quality of modern cities is an important concern, as poor air quality contributes to human health and environmental issues. Reliable air quality forecasting has, thus, gained scientific and governmental attention as an essential tool that enables authorities to take proactive measures for public safety. In this study, the potential of Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast PM2.5 at local scale is investigated in the city of Thessaloniki, the second largest city in Greece, which has been struggling with the persistent issue of air pollution. ML models, with proven ability to address timeseries forecasting, are employed to predict the PM2.5 concentrations and the respective Air Quality Index 5-days ahead by learning from daily historical air quality and meteorological data from 2014 to 2016 and gathered from two stations with different land use characteristics in the urban fabric of Thessaloniki. The performance of the ML models on PM2.5 concentrations is evaluated with common statistical methods, such as R squared (r²) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), utilizing a portion of the stations’ measurements as test set. A multi-categorical evaluation is utilized for the assessment of their performance on respective AQIs. Several conclusions were made from the experiments conducted. Experimenting on MLs’ configuration revealed a moderate effect of various parameters and training schemas on the model’s predictions. Their performance of all these models were found to produce satisfactory results on PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, their application on untrained stations showed that these models can perform well, indicating a generalized behavior. Moreover, their performance on AQI was even better, showing that the MLs can be used as predictors for AQI, which is the direct information provided to the general public.

Keywords: Air Quality, AQ Forecasting, AQI, Machine Learning, PM2.5

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Authors: Khalid Mahmud

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In this paper, an analytic approach is presented to evaluate the Bit Error Rate (BER) and round trip distance for a UWB chipless RFID system using diversity technique at the reader receiver using different modulation technique. The analysis is carried out with multiresonator based chipless RFID tags using frequency range from 3 GHz − 6 GHz and bandwidth of 500 M Hz in outdoor non-line-of-sight (NLOS) environment. SISO configuration is used to communicate from the reader to the tag and SIMO configuration is used do vice versa. Maximal Ratio Combining (MRC) technique is used in the reader. MPSK, DQPSK, DBPSK, BPSK, QPSK and DMPSK modulation techniques are considered with coherent demodulation to evaluate the BER performance. From the numerical analysis of the results, it is found that at a given BER maximum possible round trip distance can be achieved using DMPSK modulation technique. In addition, it has been proved that, while using DMPSK modulation technique, the application of diversity has very little effect on the overall improvement in reader receiver sensitivity and achievable distance. Finally the method not only proves to be a very good way for tag detection in case of a chipless RFID system but also gives a clear insight regarding the interrelationship between BER, read range, reader received power, number of receiving antenna in outdoor NLOS environment.

Keywords: EGC, MRC, BER, read range, diversity

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Authors: S. El Hasini, M. El Azzouzi, M. De Nobili, K. Azim, A. Zouahri

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Soil salinization is one of the most severe environmental hazards which threaten sustainable agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions, including Morocco. In this regard the application of organic matter to saline soil has confirmed its effectiveness. The present study was aimed to examine the effect of humic acid which represent, among others, the important component of organic matter that contributes to reduce soil salinity. In fact, different composts taken from Agadir (Morocco), with different C/N ratio, were tested. After extraction and purification of humic acid, the interaction with Na2CO3 was carried out. The reduction of salinity is calculated as a value expressed in mg Na2CO3 equivalent/g HA. The results showed that humic acid had generally a significant effect on salinity. In that respect, the hypothesis proposed that carboxylic groups of humic acid create bonds with excess sodium in the soil to form a coherent complex which descends by leaching operation. The comparison between composts was based on C/N ratio, it showed that the compost with the lower ratio C/N had the most important effect on salinity reduction, whereas the compost with higher C/N ratio was less effective. The study is attended also to evaluate the quality of each compost by determining the humification index, we noticed that the compost which have the lowest C/N (20) ratio was relatively less stable, where a greater predominance of the humified substances, when the compost with C/N ratio is 35 exhibited higher stability.

Keywords: compost, humic acid, organic matter, salinity

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Wu Wei-Ting, Liu Po-Yen, Chang Chin-Tzu, Cheng Wei-Chun

Abstract:

Three types of low-temperature phase transformations in an Fe-12.5 Mn-6.53 Al-1.28 C (wt %) alloy have been studied. The steel underwent solution heat treatment at 1100℃ and isothermal holding at low temperatures. γ’ phase appears in the austenite matrix in the air-cooled steel. Coherent ultra-fine particles of γ’ phase precipitated uniformly in the austenite matrix after the air-cooling process. These ultra-fine particles were very small and only could be detected by TEM through dark-field images. After short periods of isothermal holding at low temperatures these particles of γ’ phase grew and could be easily detected by TEM. A pro-eutectoid reaction happened after isothermal holding at temperatures below 875 ℃. Proeutectoid κ-carbide and ferrite appear in the austenite matrix as grain boundary precipitates and cellular precipitates. The cellular precipitates are composed of lamellar κ-carbide and austenite. The lamellar κ-carbide grains are always accompanied by layers of austenite twins. The presence of twin layers adhering to the κ-carbide plates might be attributed to the lower activation energy for the precipitation of κ-carbide plates in the austenite. The final form of phase transformation is the eutectoid reaction for the decomposition of supersaturated austenite into stable κ-carbide and ferrite phases at temperatures below 700℃. The ferrite and κ-carbide are in the form of pearlite lamellae.

Keywords: austenite, austenite twin layers, κ-carbide, twins

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

Abstract:

Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: R. A. C. K. Gunathilaka, P. T. D. Peiris, O. S. M. Jayawardane, S. M. A. I. Kulathunga

Abstract:

Waste management is one of the predominant aspects of resource utilization and sustainability. The absence of a proper waste management system may lead to adverse troubles and catastrophic tragedies ultimately. Sri Lanka has faced different predicaments for a long time due to the unavailability of a systematic manner in the waste management process. The main objective of this research is to design an efficient waste management system for an urban area in Sri Lanka. The research was dispersed into three categories as biodegradable, non-biodegradable, and hazardous waste. Different waste materials were researched for each category by probing the entire process from the beginning to final disposal for perceiving the prevailing problems in the waste management system. The distinctive segment of this research is comparing efficient foreign waste management strategies with efficacious approaches on increasing public commitment to uncovering cognizable ways of implementing such a system in the Sri Lankan context. Waste management systems in Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, USA, Maldives, and China incorporated their exemplary plan of action on tackling the waste problem in diverse sectors were studied. Ultimately, three coherent models were proposed for each category pertaining to the concepts of circular economy and lean manufacturing from the inception to the final disposal of the waste. This research also includes concealed financial opportunities regarding waste management.

Keywords: circular economy, efficient waste management system, lean manufacturing, sustainability, urban area

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta

Abstract:

Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.

Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume

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Authors: Hayriye Anıl, Görkem Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations since geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning, and, time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Natural Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was estimated for the first one and two weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 87