Search results for: Stable isotopes
1675 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance
Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru
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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 1301674 Double Beta Decay Experiments in Novi Sad
Authors: Nataša Todorović, Jovana Nikolov
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Despite the great interest in β⁻β⁻ decay, β⁺β⁺ decays are rarely investigated due to the low probability of detecting these processes with available low-level equipment. If β⁺β⁺, β⁺EC, or ECEC decay occurs in a thin sample of a material, the positrons will be stopped and annihilated inside the material, leading to the emission of two or four coincidence gamma photons energy of 511 keV. The paper presents the results of measurements of double beta decay of ⁶⁴Zn, ⁵⁰Cr, and ⁵⁴Fe isotopes. In the first experiment, 511-keV gamma rays originating from the annihilation of positrons in natural zinc were measured by a coincidence technique to obtain a non-zero value for the (0ν+2ν) half-life. In the second experiment, the result of measuring double beta decay of ⁵⁰Cr is presented, which suggests a result other than zero at 95% CL and gives the lowest limit for the half-life of this process. In the third experiment, neutrino-less ECEC decay of ⁵⁴Fe was examined. Under the decay theory, gamma rays are emitted whose energy does not coincide with the energies of gamma rays emitted by nuclei from known discrete excited states. Iron shield of an internal volume of 1 m³ and thickness of 25 cm served as a source for measuring the (0ν+2ν) process in ⁵⁴Fe, whose yield in natural iron is 5.4%. We obtain the lower limit for the half-life for ⁵⁴Fe: T(0ν, K, K)>4.4x10²⁰ yr, T(0ν, K, L)>4.1x10²⁰ yr, and T(0ν, L, L)>5.0x10²⁰ yr. For ⁵⁰Cr limit for the half-life is T(0ν+2ν)>1.3(6)x10¹⁸ yr, and for ⁶⁴Zn T(0ν+2ν, ECβ+)=1.1(0.9)x10⁹ years.Keywords: neutrinoless double beta decay, half-life, ⁶⁴Zn, ⁵⁰Cr, and, ⁵⁴Fe
Procedia PDF Downloads 1081673 Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Diamines and Their Thermally Stable Polyimides
Authors: Zill-E-Huma, Humaira Siddiqi
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This paper comprises of synthesis of thermally stable, mechanically strong polyimides. The polyimides were considered as most diverse class of polymers having unlimited applications. They were widely used as optical wave guides, in aerospace, for gas separation, as biomaterials and in electronics. Here the focus was to increase thermal stability and mechanical strength of polyimides. For this purpose two monomers were synthesized and were further polymerized via anhydrides to polyimides. The monomer diamines were synthesized by nucleophilic attack of aniline/2-fluoro aniline on hydroxy benzaldehydes. The two diamines synthesized were 3-(bis(4-aminophenyl) methyl) phenol (3OHDA) and 4-(bis(4-amino-3-fluorophenyl) methyl) phenol (2F4OHDA). These diamines were then reacted with dianhydrides to get polyimides. Two neat polyimides of both diamines with pyromellitic dianhydride (PMDA) and one neat polyimide of 4'-(Hexafluoroisopropylidene) diphthalic dianhydride (6FDA) with 3OHDA were synthesized. To compare the properties of synthesized polyimides like thermal stability, rigidity, flexibility, toughness etc. a commercial diamine oxydianiline (ODA) was used. Polyimides from oxydianiline were basically rigid. Nine different polyimide blends were synthesized from 3OHDA and commercial diamines ODA to have a better comparison of properties. TGA and mechanical testing results showed that with the increase in the percentage of 3OHDA in comparison to ODA the flexibility, toughness, strength of polyimide, thermal stability goes on increasing. So, synthesized diamines were responsible for improvement of properties of polyimides.Keywords: diamines, dianhydrides, oxydianiline, polyimides
Procedia PDF Downloads 3031672 Stability Analysis of Stagnation-Point Flow past a Shrinking Sheet in a Nanofluid
Authors: Amin Noor, Roslinda Nazar, Norihan Md. Arifin
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In this paper, a numerical and theoretical study has been performed for the stagnation-point boundary layer flow and heat transfer towards a shrinking sheet in a nanofluid. The mathematical nanofluid model in which the effect of the nanoparticle volume fraction is taken into account is considered. The governing nonlinear partial differential equations are transformed into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using a similarity transformation which is then solved numerically using the function bvp4c from Matlab. Numerical results are obtained for the skin friction coefficient, the local Nusselt number as well as the velocity and temperature profiles for some values of the governing parameters, namely the nanoparticle volume fraction Φ, the shrinking parameter λ and the Prandtl number Pr. Three different types of nanoparticles are considered, namely Cu, Al2O3 and TiO2. It is found that solutions do not exist for larger shrinking rates and dual (upper and lower branch) solutions exist when λ < -1.0. A stability analysis has been performed to show which branch solutions are stable and physically realizable. It is also found that the upper branch solutions are stable while the lower branch solutions are unstable.Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, shrinking sheet, stability analysis, stagnation-point flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 3811671 Altered TP53 Mutations in de Novo Acute Myeloid Leukemia Patients in Iran
Authors: Naser Shagerdi Esmaeli, Mohsen Hamidpour, Parisa Hasankhani Tehrani
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Background: The TP53 mutation is frequently detected in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients with complex karyotype (CK), but the stability of this mutation during the clinical course remains unclear. Material and Methods: In this study, TP53 mutations were identified in 7% of 500 patients with de novo AML and 58.8% of patients with CK in Tabriz, Iran. TP53 mutations were closely associated with older age, lower white blood cell (WBC) and platelet counts, FAB M6 subtype, unfavorable-risk cytogenetics, and CK, but negatively associated with NPM1 mutation, FLT3/ITD and DNMT3A mutation. Result: Multivariate analysis demonstrated that TP53 mutation was an independent poor prognostic factor for overall survival and disease-free survival among the total cohort and the subgroup of patients with CK. A scoring system incorporating TP53 mutation and nine other prognostic factors, including age, WBC counts, cytogenetics, and gene mutations, into survival analysis proved to be very useful to stratify AML patients. Sequential study of 420 samples showed that TP53 mutations were stable during AML evolution, whereas the mutation was acquired only in 1 of the 126 TP53 wild-type patients when therapy-related AML originated from different clone emerged. Conclusion: In conclusion, TP53 mutations are associated with distinct clinic-biological features and poor prognosis in de novo AML patients and are rather stable during disease progression.Keywords: acute myloblastic leukemia, TP53, FLT3/ITD, Iran
Procedia PDF Downloads 1061670 A Mathematical Analysis of Behavioural Epidemiology: Drugs Users Transmission Dynamics Based on Level Education for Susceptible Population
Authors: Firman Riyudha, Endrik Mifta Shaiful
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The spread of drug users is one kind of behavioral epidemiology that becomes a threat to every country in the world. This problem caused various crisis simultaneously, including financial or economic crisis, social, health, until human crisis. Most drug users are teenagers at school age. A new deterministic model would be constructed to determine the dynamics of the spread of drug users by considering level of education in a susceptible population. Based on the analytical model, two equilibria points were obtained; there were E₀ (zero user) and E₁ (endemic equilibrium). Existence of equilibrium and local stability of equilibria depended on the Basic Reproduction Ratio (R₀). This parameter was defined as the expected rate of secondary prevalence and primary prevalence in virgin population along spreading primary prevalence. The zero-victim equilibrium would be locally asymptotically stable if R₀ < 1 while if R₀ > 1 the endemic equilibrium would be locally asymptotically stable. The result showed that R₀ was proportional to the rate of interaction of each susceptible population based on educational level with the users' population. It is concluded that there was a need to be given a control in interaction, so that drug users population could be minimized. Numerical simulations were also provided to support analytical results.Keywords: drugs users, level education, mathematical model, stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 4751669 Engineering of Stable and Improved Electrochemical Activities of Redox Dominating Charge Storage Electrode Materials
Authors: Girish Sambhaji Gund
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The controlled nanostructure growth and its strong coupling with the current collector are key factors to achieve good electrochemical performance of faradaic-dominant electroactive materials. We employed binder-less and additive-free hydrothermal and physical vapor doping methods for the synthesis of nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co) based compounds nanostructures (NiO, NiCo2O4, NiCo2S4) deposited on different conductive substrates such as carbon nanotube (CNT) on stainless steel, and reduced graphene oxide (rGO) and N-doped rGO on nickel foam (NF). The size and density of Ni- and Co-based compound nanostructures are controlled through the strong coupling with carbon allotropes on stainless steel and NF substrates. This controlled nanostructure of Ni- and Co-based compounds with carbon allotropes leads to stable faradaic electrochemical reactions at the material/current collector interface and within the electrode, which is consequence of strong coupling of nanostructure with functionalized carbon surface as a buffer layer. Thus, it is believed that the results provide the synergistic approaches to stabilize electrode materials physically and chemically, and hence overall electrochemical activity of faradaic dominating battery-type electrode materials through buffer layer engineering.Keywords: metal compounds, carbon allotropes, doping, electrochemicstry, hybrid supercapacitor
Procedia PDF Downloads 791668 Isolation, Identification and Characterization of 1,2-Dichlorobenzene Degrading Bacteria from Consortium
Authors: Ge Cui, Mei Fang Chien, Chihiro Inoue
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In this research, enrichment culture using an inorganic liquid medium collected soil contaminated with 1,2-dichlorobenzene (1,2-DCB) in Sendai, Japan, was added 1,2-DCB as the sole carbon source to create a stable consortium. The purpose of this research is to analysis dominant microorganisms in the stable consortium and enzyme system which play a role in the degradation of DCBs. The consortium is now at 30 generation and is still being cultured. By the result of PCR-DGGE and clone library, two bacteria are dominant. The bacteria named sk1 was isolated. 40mg/l of 1,2-DCB and 40mg/l of 1,4-DCB were completely degraded after 32 hours and 50 hours, respectively, but no degradation occurred in the case of 1,3-DCB. By PCR, tecA1 (α-subunit of DCB dioxygenase) gene which plays a role degrading DCB to DCB dihydrodiol, and tecB (dehydrogenase) gene which plays a role degrading DCB dihydrodiol to dichlorocatechol were amplified from strain sk1. Bacteria named sk100 was also isolated. 40mg/l of 1,2-DCB was completely degraded after 32 hours, but no degradation occurred in case of 1,3-DCB and 1,4-DCB. By the result of the catalytic core region of dioxygenase amplified by PCR, gene played a role degrading DCB was analyzed. The results of this study concluded that the isolated strains which have not been reported are able to degrade 1,2-DCB stably, and the characterization of degradation and the genomic analysis which is now in progress is helpful to have an overall view of this microbial degradation.Keywords: DCB, 1, 2-DCB degrading strains, DCB dioxygenase, enrichment culture
Procedia PDF Downloads 2041667 Performance Evaluation of a Spouted Bed Bioreactor (SBBR) for the Biodegradation of 2, 4 Dichlorophenol
Authors: Taghreed Al-Khalid, Muftah El-Naas
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As an economical and environmentally friendly technology, biological treatment has been shown to be one of the most promising approaches for the removal of numerous types of organic water pollutants such as Chlorophenols, which are hazardous pollutants commonly encountered in wastewater generated by the petroleum and petrochemical industries. This study aimed at evaluating the performance of a spouted bed bioreactor (SBBR) for aerobic biodegradation of 2, 4 dichlorophenol (DCP) by a commercial strain of Pseudomonas putida immobilized in polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) gel particles. The SBBR is characterized by systematic intense mixing, resulting in improvement of the biodegradation rates through reducing the mass transfer limitations. The reactor was evaluated in both batch and continuous mode in order to evaluate its hydrodynamics in terms of stability and response to shock loads. The SBBR was able to maintain a stable operation and recovered quickly to its normal operating mode once the shock load had been removed. In comparison to a packed bed reactor bioreactor, the SBBR proved to be more efficient and more stable, achieving a removal percentage and throughput of 80% and 1414 g/m3day, respectively. In addition, the biodegradation of chlorophenols was mathematically modeled using a dynamic modeling approach in order to assess reaction and mass transfer limitations. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the use of the PVA immobilization technique for the biodegradation of phenols.Keywords: biodegradation, 2, 4 dichlorophenol, immobilization, polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) gel
Procedia PDF Downloads 1811666 A Study on Evaluation for Performance Verification of Ni-63 Radioisotope Betavoltaic Battery
Authors: Youngmok Yun, Bosung Kim, Sungho Lee, Kyeongsu Jeon, Hyunwook Hwangbo, Byounggun Choi
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A betavoltaic battery converts nuclear energy released as beta particles (β-) directly into electrical energy. Betavoltaic cells are analogous to photovoltaic cells. The beta particle’s kinetic energy enters a p-n junction and creates electron-hole pairs. Subsequently, the built-in potential of the p-n junction accelerates the electrons and ions to their respective collectors. The major challenges are electrical conversion efficiencies and exact evaluation. In this study, the performance of betavoltaic battery was evaluated. The betavoltaic cell was evaluated in the same condition as radiation from radioactive isotope using by FE-SEM(field emission scanning electron microscope). The average energy of the radiation emitted from the Ni-63 radioisotope is 17.42 keV. FE-SEM is capable of emitting an electron beam of 1-30keV. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate betavoltaic cell without radioactive isotopes. The betavoltaic battery consists of radioisotope that is physically connected on the surface of Si-based PN diode. The performance of betavoltaic battery can be estimated by the efficiency of PN diode unit cell. The current generated by scanning electron microscope with fixed accelerating voltage (17keV) was measured by using faraday cup. Electrical characterization of the p-n junction diode was performed by using Nano Probe Work Station and I-V measurement system. The output value of the betavoltaic cells developed by this research team was 0.162 μw/cm2 and the efficiency was 1.14%.Keywords: betavoltaic, nuclear, battery, Ni-63, radio-isotope
Procedia PDF Downloads 2581665 Numerical Analysis of CO₂ Storage as Clathrates in Depleted Natural Gas Hydrate Formation
Authors: Sheraz Ahmad, Li Yiming, Li XiangFang, Xia Wei, Zeen Chen
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Holding CO₂ at massive scale in the enclathrated solid matter called hydrate can be perceived as one of the most reliable methods for CO₂ sequestration to take greenhouse gases emission control measures and global warming preventive actions. In this study, a dynamically coupled mass and heat transfer mathematical model is developed which elaborates the unsteady behavior of CO₂ flowing into a porous medium and converting itself into hydrates. The combined numerical model solution by implicit finite difference method is explained and through coupling the mass, momentum and heat conservation relations, an integrated model can be established to analyze the CO₂ hydrate growth within P-T equilibrium conditions. CO₂ phase transition, effect of hydrate nucleation by exothermic heat release and variations of thermo-physical properties has been studied during hydrate nucleation. The results illustrate that formation pressure distribution becomes stable at the early stage of hydrate nucleation process and always remains stable afterward, but formation temperature is unable to keep stable and varies during CO₂ injection and hydrate nucleation process. Initially, the temperature drops due to cold high-pressure CO₂ injection since when the massive hydrate growth triggers and temperature increases under the influence of exothermic heat evolution. Intermittently, it surpasses the initial formation temperature before CO₂ injection initiates. The hydrate growth rate increases by increasing injection pressure in the long formation and it also expands overall hydrate covered length in the same induction period. The results also show that the injection pressure conditions and hydrate growth rate affect other parameters like CO₂ velocity, CO₂ permeability, CO₂ density, CO₂ and H₂O saturation inside the porous medium. In order to enhance the hydrate growth rate and expand hydrate covered length, the injection temperature is reduced, but it did not give satisfactory outcomes. Hence, CO₂ injection in vacated natural gas hydrate porous sediment may form hydrate under low temperature and high-pressure conditions, but it seems very challenging on a huge scale in lengthy formations.Keywords: CO₂ hydrates, CO₂ injection, CO₂ Phase transition, CO₂ sequestration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1351664 Coastal Modelling Studies for Jumeirah First Beach Stabilization
Authors: Zongyan Yang, Gagan K. Jena, Sankar B. Karanam, Noora M. A. Hokal
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Jumeirah First beach, a segment of coastline of length 1.5 km, is one of the popular public beaches in Dubai, UAE. The stability of the beach has been affected by several coastal developmental projects, including The World, Island 2 and La Mer. A comprehensive stabilization scheme comprising of two composite groynes (of lengths 90 m and 125m), modification to the northern breakwater of Jumeirah Fishing Harbour and beach re-nourishment was implemented by Dubai Municipality in 2012. However, the performance of the implemented stabilization scheme has been compromised by La Mer project (built in 2016), which modified the wave climate at the Jumeirah First beach. The objective of the coastal modelling studies is to establish design basis for further beach stabilization scheme(s). Comprehensive coastal modelling studies had been conducted to establish the nearshore wave climate, equilibrium beach orientations and stable beach plan forms. Based on the outcomes of the modeling studies, recommendation had been made to extend the composite groynes to stabilize the Jumeirah First beach. Wave transformation was performed following an interpolation approach with wave transformation matrixes derived from simulations of a possible range of wave conditions in the region. The Dubai coastal wave model is developed with MIKE21 SW. The offshore wave conditions were determined from PERGOS wave data at 4 offshore locations with consideration of the spatial variation. The lateral boundary conditions corresponding to the offshore conditions, at Dubai/Abu Dhabi and Dubai Sharjah borders, were derived with application of LitDrift 1D wave transformation module. The Dubai coastal wave model was calibrated with wave records at monitoring stations operated by Dubai Municipality. The wave transformation matrix approach was validated with nearshore wave measurement at a Dubai Municipality monitoring station in the vicinity of the Jumeirah First beach. One typical year wave time series was transformed to 7 locations in front of the beach to count for the variation of wave conditions which are affected by adjacent and offshore developments. Equilibrium beach orientations were estimated with application of LitDrift by finding the beach orientations with null annual littoral transport at the 7 selected locations. The littoral transport calculation results were compared with beach erosion/accretion quantities estimated from the beach monitoring program (twice a year including bathymetric and topographical surveys). An innovative integral method was developed to outline the stable beach plan forms from the estimated equilibrium beach orientations, with predetermined minimum beach width. The optimal lengths for the composite groyne extensions were recommended based on the stable beach plan forms.Keywords: composite groyne, equilibrium beach orientation, stable beach plan form, wave transformation matrix
Procedia PDF Downloads 2631663 Nanoemulsion Formulation of Ethanolic Extracts of Propolis and Its Antioxidant Activity
Authors: Rachmat Mauludin, Dita Sasri Primaviri, Irda Fidrianny
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Propolis contains several antioxidant compounds which can be used in topical application to protect skin against free radical, prevent skin cancer and skin aging. Previous study showed that 70% ethanolic extract of propolis (EEP) provided the greatest antioxidant activity. Since EEP has very small solubility in water, the extract was prepared in nanoemulsion (NE). Nanoemulsion is chosen as cosmetic dosage forms according to its properties namely to decrease the risk of skin’s irritation, increase penetration, prolong its time to remain in our skin, and improve stability. Propolis was extracted using reflux methods and concentrated using rotavapor. EEP was characterized with several tests such as phytochemical screening, density, and antioxidant activity using DPPH method. Optimation of total surfactant, co-surfactant, oil, and amount of EEP that can be included in NE were required to get the best NE formulation. The evaluations included to organoleptic observation, globul size, polydispersity index, morphology using TEM, viscosity, pH, centrifuge, stability, Freeze and Thaw test, radical scavenging activity using DPPH method, and primary irritation test. The yield extracts was 11.12% from raw propolis contained of steroid/triterpenoid, flavonoid, and saponin based on phytochemical screening. EEP had the value of DPPH scavenging activity 61.14% and IC50 0.41629 ppm. The best NE formulation consisted of 26.25% Kolliphor RH40; 8.75% glycerine; 5% rice bran oil; and 3% EEP. NE was transparant, had globul size of 21.9 nm; polydispersity index of 0.338; and pH of 5.67. Based on TEM morphology, NE was almost spherical and has particle size below 50 nm. NE propolis revealed to be physically stable after stability test within 63 days at 25oC, centrifuged for 30 mins at 13.000 rpm, and passed 6 cycles of Freeze and Thaw test without separated. NE propolis reduced 58% of free radical DPPH similar to antioxidant activity of the original extracts. Antioxidant activity of NE propolis is relatively stable after stored for 6 weeks. NE Propolis was proven to be safe by primary irritation test with the value of primary irritation index (OECD) was 0. The best formulation for NE propolis contained of 26.25% Kolliphor RH40; 8.75% glycerine; 5% rice bran oil; and 3% EEP with globul size of 21.9 nm and polydispersity index of 0.338. NE propolis was stable and had antioxidant activity similar to EEP.Keywords: propolis, antioxidant, nanoemulsion, irritation test
Procedia PDF Downloads 3051662 Indoor Microclimate in a Historic Library: Considerations on the Positive Effect of Historic Books on the Stability of Indoor Relative Humidity
Authors: Magda Posani, Maria Do Rosario Veiga, Vasco Peixoto De Freitas
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The presented research considers the hygrothermal data acquired in the municipal library of Porto. The library is housed in an XVIII century convent and, among all the rooms in the construction, one, in particular, was chosen for the monitoring campaign because of the presence of a great number of historic books. Temperature and relative humidity, as well as CO₂ concentration, were measured for six consecutive months, in the period December 24th - June 24th. The indoor environment of the building is controlled with a heating and cooling system that is turned on only during the opening hours of the library. The ventilation rate is low because the windows are kept closed, and there is no forced ventilation. The micro-climate is analyzed in terms of users’ comfort and degradation risks for historic books and valuable building surfaces. Through a comparison between indoor and outdoor measured hygrothermal data, indoor relative humidity appears very stable. The influence of the hygroscopicity of books on the stabilization of indoor relative humidity is therefore investigated in detail. The paper finally discusses the benefits given by the presence of historic books in libraries with intermittent heating and cooling. The possibility of obtaining a comfortable and stable indoor climate with low use of HVAC systems in these conditions, while avoiding degradation risks for books and historic building components, is further debated.Keywords: books, historic buildings, hygroscopicity, relative humidity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1521661 A Study of Two Disease Models: With and Without Incubation Period
Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, J. O. Adekunle
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The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.Keywords: asymptotic stability, Hartman-Grobman stability criterion, incubation period, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, Runge-Kutta method
Procedia PDF Downloads 1751660 Temperature-Stable High-Speed Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers with Strong Carrier Confinement
Authors: Yun Sun, Meng Xun, Jingtao Zhou, Ming Li, Qiang Kan, Zhi Jin, Xinyu Liu, Dexin Wu
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Higher speed short-wavelength vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs) working at high temperature are required for future optical interconnects. In this work, the high-speed 850 nm VCSELs are designed, fabricated and characterized. The temperature dependent static and dynamic performance of devices are investigated by using current-power-voltage and small signal modulation measurements. Temperature-stable high-speed properties are obtained by employing highly strained multiple quantum wells and short cavity length of half wavelength. The temperature dependent photon lifetimes and carrier radiative times are determined from damping factor and resonance frequency obtained by fitting the intrinsic optical bandwidth with the two-pole transfer function. In addition, an analytical theoretical model including the strain effect is development based on model-solid theory. The calculation results indicate that the better high temperature performance of VCSELs can be attributed to the strong confinement of holes in the quantum wells leading to enhancement of the carrier transit time.Keywords: vertical cavity surface emitting lasers, high speed modulation, optical interconnects, semiconductor lasers
Procedia PDF Downloads 1261659 Starting Order Eight Method Accurately for the Solution of First Order Initial Value Problems of Ordinary Differential Equations
Authors: James Adewale, Joshua Sunday
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In this paper, we developed a linear multistep method, which is implemented in predictor corrector-method. The corrector is developed by method of collocation and interpretation of power series approximate solutions at some selected grid points, to give a continuous linear multistep method, which is evaluated at some selected grid points to give a discrete linear multistep method. The predictors were also developed by method of collocation and interpolation of power series approximate solution, to give a continuous linear multistep method. The continuous linear multistep method is then solved for the independent solution to give a continuous block formula, which is evaluated at some selected grid point to give discrete block method. Basic properties of the corrector were investigated and found to be zero stable, consistent and convergent. The efficiency of the method was tested on some linear, non-learn, oscillatory and stiff problems of first order, initial value problems of ordinary differential equations. The results were found to be better in terms of computer time and error bound when compared with the existing methods.Keywords: predictor, corrector, collocation, interpolation, approximate solution, independent solution, zero stable, consistent, convergent
Procedia PDF Downloads 5011658 Instant Location Detection of Objects Moving at High Speed in C-OTDR Monitoring Systems
Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev
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The practical efficient approach is suggested to estimate the high-speed objects instant bounds in C-OTDR monitoring systems. In case of super-dynamic objects (trains, cars) is difficult to obtain the adequate estimate of the instantaneous object localization because of estimation lag. In other words, reliable estimation coordinates of monitored object requires taking some time for data observation collection by means of C-OTDR system, and only if the required sample volume will be collected the final decision could be issued. But it is contrary to requirements of many real applications. For example, in rail traffic management systems we need to get data off the dynamic objects localization in real time. The way to solve this problem is to use the set of statistical independent parameters of C-OTDR signals for obtaining the most reliable solution in real time. The parameters of this type we can call as 'signaling parameters' (SP). There are several the SP’s which carry information about dynamic objects instant localization for each of C-OTDR channels. The problem is that some of these parameters are very sensitive to dynamics of seismoacoustic emission sources but are non-stable. On the other hand, in case the SP is very stable it becomes insensitive as a rule. This report contains describing the method for SP’s co-processing which is designed to get the most effective dynamic objects localization estimates in the C-OTDR monitoring system framework.Keywords: C-OTDR-system, co-processing of signaling parameters, high-speed objects localization, multichannel monitoring systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 4701657 Micelles Made of Pseudo-Proteins for Solubilization of Hydrophobic Biologicals
Authors: Sophio Kobauri, David Tugushi, Vladimir P. Torchilin, Ramaz Katsarava
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Hydrophobic / hydrophilically modified functional polymers are of high interest in modern biomedicine due to their ability to solubilize water-insoluble / poorly soluble (hydrophobic) drugs. Among the many approaches that are being developed in this direction, one of the most effective methods is the use of polymeric micelles (PMs) (micelles formed by amphiphilic block-copolymers) for solubilization of hydrophobic biologicals. For therapeutic purposes, PMs are required to be stable and biodegradable, although quite a few amphiphilic block-copolymers are described capable of forming stable micelles with good solubilization properties. For obtaining micelle-forming block-copolymers, polyethylene glycol (PEG) derivatives are desirable to use as hydrophilic shell because it represents the most popular biocompatible hydrophilic block and various hydrophobic blocks (polymers) can be attached to it. Although the construction of the hydrophobic core, due to the complex requirements and micelles structure development, is the very actual and the main problem for nanobioengineers. Considering the above, our research goal was obtaining biodegradable micelles for the solubilization of hydrophobic drugs and biologicals. For this purpose, we used biodegradable polymers– pseudo-proteins (PPs)(synthesized with naturally occurring amino acids and other non-toxic building blocks, such as fatty diols and dicarboxylic acids) as hydrophobic core since these polymers showed reasonable biodegradation rates and excellent biocompatibility. In the present study, we used the hydrophobic amino acid – L-phenylalanine (MW 4000-8000Da) instead of L-leucine. Amino-PEG (MW 2000Da) was used as hydrophilic fragments for constructing the suitable micelles. The molecular weight of PP (the hydrophobic core of micelle) was regulated by variation of used monomers ratios. Micelles were obtained by dissolving of synthesized amphiphilic polymer in water. The micelle-forming property was tested using dynamic light scattering (Malvern zetasizer NanoZSZEN3600). The study showed that obtaining amphiphilic block-copolymer form stable neutral micelles 100 ± 7 nm in size at 10mg/mL concentration, which is considered as an optimal range for pharmaceutical micelles. The obtained preliminary data allow us to conclude that the obtained micelles are suitable for the delivery of poorly water-soluble drugs and biologicals.Keywords: amino acid – L-phenylalanine, pseudo-proteins, amphiphilic block-copolymers, biodegradable micelles
Procedia PDF Downloads 1341656 Dynamic Modeling of the Exchange Rate in Tunisia: Theoretical and Empirical Study
Authors: Chokri Slim
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The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models
Procedia PDF Downloads 3641655 Harnessing Sunlight for Clean Water: Scalable Approach for Silver-Loaded Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles
Authors: Satam Alotibi, Muhammad J. Al-Zahrani, Fahd K. Al-Naqidan, Turki S. Hussein, Moteb Alotaibi, Mohammed Alyami, Mahdy M. Elmahdy, Abdellah Kaiba, Fatehia S. Alhakami, Talal F. Qahtan
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Water pollution is a critical global challenge that demands scalable and effective solutions for water decontamination. In this captivating research, we unveil a groundbreaking strategy for harnessing solar energy to synthesize silver (Ag) clusters on stable titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanoparticles dispersed in water, without the need for traditional stabilization agents. These Ag-loaded TiO₂ nanoparticles exhibit exceptional photocatalytic activity, surpassing that of pristine TiO₂ nanoparticles, offering a promising solution for highly efficient water decontamination under sunlight irradiation. To the best knowledge, we have developed a unique method to stabilize TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles in water without the use of stabilization agents. This breakthrough allows us to create an ideal platform for the solar-driven synthesis of Ag clusters. Under sunlight irradiation, the stable dispersion of TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles acts as a highly efficient photocatalyst, generating electron-hole pairs. The photogenerated electrons effectively reduce silver ions derived from a silver precursor, resulting in the formation of Ag clusters. The Ag clusters loaded on TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles exhibit remarkable photocatalytic activity for water decontamination under sunlight irradiation. Acting as active sites, these Ag clusters facilitate the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) upon exposure to sunlight. These ROS play a pivotal role in rapidly degrading organic pollutants, enabling efficient water decontamination. To confirm the success of our approach, we characterized the synthesized Ag-loaded TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles using cutting-edge analytical techniques, such as transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and spectroscopic methods. These characterizations unequivocally confirm the successful synthesis of Ag clusters on stable TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles without traditional stabilization agents. Comparative studies were conducted to evaluate the superior photocatalytic performance of Ag-loaded TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles compared to pristine TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles. The Ag clusters loaded on TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles exhibit significantly enhanced photocatalytic activity, benefiting from the synergistic effect between the Ag clusters and TiO₂ nanoparticles, which promotes ROS generation for efficient water decontamination. Our scalable strategy for synthesizing Ag clusters on stable TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles without stabilization agents presents a game-changing solution for highly efficient water decontamination under sunlight irradiation. The use of commercially available TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles streamlines the synthesis process and enables practical scalability. The outstanding photocatalytic performance of Ag-loaded TiO₂ P25 nanoparticles opens up new avenues for their application in large-scale water treatment and remediation processes, addressing the urgent need for sustainable water decontamination solutions.Keywords: water pollution, solar energy, silver clusters, TiO₂ nanoparticles, photocatalytic activity
Procedia PDF Downloads 691654 Effect of Intrinsic Point Defects on the Structural and Optical Properties of SnO₂ Thin Films Grown by Ultrasonic Spray Pyrolysis Method
Authors: Fatiha Besahraoui, M'hamed Guezzoul, Kheira Chebbah, M'hamed Bouslama
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SnO₂ thin film is characterized by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and Photoluminescence Spectroscopies. AFM images show a dense surface of columnar grains with a roughness of 78.69 nm. The PL measurements at 7 K reveal the presence of PL peaks centered in IR and visible regions. They are attributed to radiative transitions via oxygen vacancies, Sn interstitials, and dangling bonds. A bands diagram model is presented with the approximate positions of intrinsic point defect levels in SnO₂ thin films. The integrated PL measurements demonstrate the good thermal stability of our sample, which makes it very useful in optoelectronic devices functioning at room temperature. The unusual behavior of the evolution of PL peaks and their full width at half maximum as a function of temperature indicates the thermal sensitivity of the point defects present in the band gap. The shallower energy levels due to dangling bonds and/or oxygen vacancies are more sensitive to the temperature. However, volume defects like Sn interstitials are thermally stable and constitute deep and stable energy levels for excited electrons. Small redshifting of PL peaks is observed with increasing temperature. This behavior is attributed to the reduction of oxygen vacancies.Keywords: transparent conducting oxide, photoluminescence, intrinsic point defects, semiconductors, oxygen vacancies
Procedia PDF Downloads 851653 Smart Energy Storage: W₁₈O₄₉ NW/Ti₃C₂Tₓ Composite-Enabled All Solid State Flexible Electrochromic Supercapacitors
Authors: Muhammad Hassan, Kemal Celebi
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Developing a highly efficient electrochromic energy storage device with sufficient color fluctuation and significant electrochemical performance is highly desirable for practical energy-saving applications. Here, to achieve a highly stable material with a large electrochemical storage capacity, a W₁₈O₄₉ NW/Ti₃C₂Tₓ composite has been fabricated and deposited on a pre-assembled Ag and W₁₈O₄₉ NW conductive network by Langmuir-Blodgett technique. The resulting hybrid electrode composed of 15 layers of W₁₈O₄₉ NW/Ti₃C₂Tₓ exhibits an areal capacitance of 125 mF/cm², with a fast and reversible switching response. An optical modulation of 98.2% can be maintained at a current density of 5 mAcm⁻². Using this electrode, we fabricated a bifunctional symmetric electrochromic supercapacitor device having an energy density of 10.26 μWh/cm² and a power density of 0.605 mW/cm², with high capacity retention and full columbic efficiency over 4000 charge-discharge cycles. Meanwhile, the device displays remarkable electrochromic characteristics, including fast switching time (5 s for coloring and 7 s for bleaching) and a significant coloration efficiency of 116 cm²/C with good optical modulation stability. In addition, the device exhibits remarkable mechanical flexibility and fast switching while being stable over 100 bending cycles, which is promising for real-world applications.Keywords: MXene, nanowires, supercapacitor, ion diffusion, electrochromic, coloration efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 761652 Participation in IAEA Proficiency Test to Analyse Cobalt, Strontium and Caesium in Seawater Using Direct Counting and Radiochemical Techniques
Authors: S. Visetpotjanakit, C. Khrautongkieo
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Radiation monitoring in the environment and foodstuffs is one of the main responsibilities of Office of Atoms for Peace (OAP) as the nuclear regulatory body of Thailand. The main goal of the OAP is to assure the safety of the Thai people and environment from any radiological incidents. Various radioanalytical methods have been developed to monitor radiation and radionuclides in the environmental and foodstuff samples. To validate our analytical performance, several proficiency test exercises from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have been performed. Here, the results of a proficiency test exercise referred to as the Proficiency Test for Tritium, Cobalt, Strontium and Caesium Isotopes in Seawater 2017 (IAEA-RML-2017-01) are presented. All radionuclides excepting ³H were analysed using various radioanalytical methods, i.e. direct gamma-ray counting for determining ⁶⁰Co, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs and developed radiochemical techniques for analysing ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs using AMP pre-concentration technique and 90Sr using di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (HDEHP) liquid extraction technique. The analysis results were submitted to IAEA. All results passed IAEA criteria, i.e. accuracy, precision and trueness and obtained ‘Accepted’ statuses. These confirm the data quality from the OAP environmental radiation laboratory to monitor radiation in the environment.Keywords: international atomic energy agency, proficiency test, radiation monitoring, seawater
Procedia PDF Downloads 1711651 Co-Precipitation Method for the Fabrication of Charge-Transfer Molecular Crystal Nanocapsules
Authors: Rabih Al-Kaysi
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When quasi-stable solutions of 9-methylanthracene (pi-electron donor, 0.0005 M) and 1,2,4,5-Tetracyanobenzene (pi-electron acceptor, 0.0005 M) in aqueous sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS, 0.025 M) were gently mixed, uniform-shaped rectangular charge-transfer nanocrystals precipitated out. These red colored charge-transfer (CT) crystals were composed of a 1:1-mole ratio of acceptor/ donor and are highly insoluble in water/SDS solution. The rectangular crystals morphology is semi hollow with symmetrical twin pockets reminiscent of nanocapsules. For a typical crop of nanocapsules, the dimensions are 21 x 6 x 0.5 microns with an approximate hollow volume of 1.5 x 105 nm3. By varying the concentration of aqueous SDS, mixing duration and incubation temperature, we can control the size and volume of the nanocapsules. The initial number of CT seed nanoparticles, formed by mixing the D and A solutions, determined the number and dimensions of the obtained nanocapsules formed after several hours of incubation under still conditions. Prolonged mixing of the donor and acceptor solutions resulted in plenty of initial seeds hence smaller nanocapsules. Short mixing times yields less seed formation and larger micron-sized capsules. The addition of Doxorubicin in situ with the quasi-stable solutions while mixing leads to the formation of CT nanocapsules with Doxorubicin sealed inside. The Doxorubicin can be liberated from the nanocapsules by cracking them using ultrasonication. This method can be extended to other binary CT complex crystals as well.Keywords: charge-transfer, nanocapsules, nanocrystals, doxorubicin
Procedia PDF Downloads 2131650 A 10-Year In-Depth Follow-up of Post-lingual Hearing Loss Patients with Chinese Domestic Cochlear Implants
Authors: Jianan Li, Lusen Shi, Haiqiao Du, Wei Chen, Qian Wang, Shuoshuo Kang, Shiming Yang
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Background: Follow-up of cochlear implant effectiveness is mainly focused on 3 years postoperatively, and studies with more than 5 years of observation are rare, especially for local Chinese brands. Objectives: Nurotron (Chinese domestic cochlear implant brand) CI recipients who participated in the clinical trial in 2009 were followed-up for 10 years prospectively, providing data to guide doctors and patients. Material and Methods: From December 2009 to April 2010, 57 subjects underwent Nurotron Venus CI surgery at multiple centers and were continued to be followed up and assessed at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 years after switching on. Results: All recipients were successfully implanted with CIs with no difficulty in subsequent use, with one reported case of re-implantation 9 years after implantation. The aided hearing thresholds were significantly improved one month after switching on (p<0.0001) and remained stable afterward for 10 years. Speech recognition scores were significantly higher than pre-operative results (p<0.05) and continued to improve till 3 years after switching on. At 10 years of post-operation, most subjects had improved QOL scores in most sub-items. Conclusions and Significance: Nurotron Venus CI System provides long-term, stable results in hearing speech assistance capabilities and can improve the quality of life of CI recipients.Keywords: cochlear implantation, hearing loss, post lingual, follow up
Procedia PDF Downloads 151649 Isotopes Used in Comparing Indigenous and International Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Varieties
Authors: Raluca Popescu, Diana Costinel, Elisabeta-Irina Geana, Oana-Romina Botoran, Roxana-Elena Ionete, Yazan Falah Jadee 'Alabedallat, Mihai Botu
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Walnut production is high in Romania, different varieties being cultivated dependent on high yield, disease resistance or quality of produce. Walnuts have a highly nutritional composition, the kernels containing essential fatty acids, where the unsaturated fraction is higher than in other types of nuts, quinones, tannins, minerals. Walnut consumption can lower the cholesterol, improve the arterial function and reduce inflammation. The purpose of this study is to determine and compare the composition of walnuts of indigenous and international varieties all grown in Romania, in order to identify high-quality indigenous varieties. Oil has been extracted from the nuts of 34 varieties, the fatty acids composition and IV (iodine value) being afterwards measured by NMR. Furthermore, δ13C of the extracted oil had been measured by IRMS to find specific isotopic fingerprints that can be used in authenticating the varieties. Chemometrics had been applied to the data in order to identify similarities and differences between the varieties. The total saturated fatty acids content (SFA) varied between n.d. and 23% molar, oleic acid between 17 and 35%, linoleic acid between 38 and 59%, linolenic acid between 8 and 14%, corresponding to iodine values (IV - total amount of unsaturation) ranging from 100 to 135. The varieties separated in four groups according to the fatty acids composition, each group containing an international variety, making possible the classification of the indigenous ones. At both ends of the unsaturation spectrum, international varieties had been found.Keywords: δ13C-IRMS, fatty acids composition, 1H-NMR, walnut varieties
Procedia PDF Downloads 3151648 The Comparison of the Effect of Mindfulness-Based Relaxation Training and Trans Cranial Electrical Stimulation and Their Combination on Decreasing Physiological Distress in Patients with Type-2 Diabetes
Authors: Gholam Hossein Javanmard, Roghayeh Mohammadi Garegozlo
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The present study was a randomized three-group double-blind clinical trial with repeated measures designs which aimed to determine the pure effect and combined effect of mindfulness based-relaxation (MBR) technique and Transcranial Electrical Simulation (tCES) on psychological distress decreasing of patients with type-2 diabetes. The sample of the study consisted of 30 patients with type-2 diabetes who were selected from the Diabetes Association of Bonab city in Iran. The participants were matched and then randomly assigned to the three groups of 10 subjects (MBR, CES, MBR+CES). The subjects received interventions related to their group in 10 individual sessions. Pre-test, post-test, and one-month follow-up were conducted using DASS-42. Analysis of variance with repeated measures showed a significant change in psychological distress. Multivariate covariance analysis and the paired interpersonal comparative test of Ben Foruni indicated that both interventions of MBR and CES have a similar effect on psychological distress decreasing in the post-test and follow-up phase. But, the combined therapy of MBR+CES was more efficient, and it had a more stable effect. However, all three interventions, especially combined intervention of MBR+CES, as efficient and stable treatment, are suggested for improving the psychological status of diabetic patients.Keywords: mindfulness based-relaxation, transcranial electrical simulation, type 2 diabetes, psychological distress
Procedia PDF Downloads 1311647 Improving the Bioprocess Phenotype of Chinese Hamster Ovary Cells Using CRISPR/Cas9 and Sponge Decoy Mediated MiRNA Knockdowns
Authors: Kevin Kellner, Nga Lao, Orla Coleman, Paula Meleady, Niall Barron
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Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells are the prominent cell line used in biopharmaceutical production. To improve yields and find beneficial bioprocess phenotypes genetic engineering plays an essential role in recent research. The miR-23 cluster, specifically miR-24 and miR-27, was first identified as differentially expressed during hypothermic conditions suggesting a role in proliferation and productivity in CHO cells. In this study, we used sponge decoy technology to stably deplete the miRNA expression of the cluster. Furthermore, we implemented the CRISPR/Cas9 system to knockdown miRNA expression. Sponge constructs were designed for an imperfect binding of the miRNA target, protecting from RISC mediated cleavage. GuideRNAs for the CRISPR/Cas9 system were designed to target the seed region of the miRNA. The expression of mature miRNA and precursor were confirmed using RT-qPCR. For both approaches stable expressing mixed populations were generated and characterised in batch cultures. It was shown, that CRISPR/Cas9 can be implemented in CHO cells with achieving high knockdown efficacy of every single member of the cluster. Targeting of one miRNA member showed that its genomic paralog is successfully targeted as well. The stable depletion of miR-24 using CRISPR/Cas9 showed increased growth and specific productivity in a CHO-K1 mAb expressing cell line. This phenotype was further characterized using quantitative label-free LC-MS/MS showing 186 proteins differently expressed with 19 involved in proliferation and 26 involved in protein folding/translation. Targeting miR-27 in the same cell line showed increased viability in late stages of the culture compared to the control. To evaluate the phenotype in an industry relevant cell line; the miR-23 cluster, miR-24 and miR-27 were stably depleted in a Fc fusion CHO-S cell line which showed increased batch titers up to 1.5-fold. In this work, we highlighted that the stable depletion of the miR-23 cluster and its members can improve the bioprocess phenotype concerning growth and productivity in two different cell lines. Furthermore, we showed that using CRISPR/Cas9 is comparable to the traditional sponge decoy technology.Keywords: Chinese Hamster ovary cells, CRISPR/Cas9, microRNAs, sponge decoy technology
Procedia PDF Downloads 1981646 FEM Based Numerical Simulation and Analysis of a Landslide Triggered by the Fluctuations of Ground-Water Levels
Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Akihiko Wakai, Shigeru Ogita, Yorihiro Tanaka, Kazushige Hayashi, Shinro Abe
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In this study, the newly developed finite element methods are used for numerical analysis ofa landslide triggered by the fluctuations of ground-water levels in different cases I-IV. In case I, the ground-water level is fixed in such a way that the overall factor of safety (Fs) would be greater or equal to 1 (i.e., stable condition). Then, the ground-water level is gradually increased up to 1.0 m for, making the overall factor of safety (Fs) less than one (i.e., stable or moving condition). Then, the newly developed finite element model is applied for numerical simulation of the slope for each case. Based on the numerical analysis results of each Cases I-IV, the details of the deformation pattern and shear strain pattern are compared to each other. Moreover, the change in mobilized shear strength and local factor of safety along the slip surface of the landslide for each case are discussed to understand the triggering behaviors of a landslide due to the increased in ground water level. It is expected that this study will help to better understand the role of groundwater fluctuation for triggering of a landslide or slope failure disasters, and it would be also helpful for the judgment of the countermeasure works for the prevention and mitigation of landslide and slope failure disasters in near future.Keywords: finite element method, ground water fluctuations, constitutive model, landslides, long-term disaster management system
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