Search results for: financial forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3249

Search results for: financial forecasting

1209 Grand Paris Residential Real Estate as an Effective Hedge against Inflation

Authors: Yasmine Essafi Zouari, Aya Nasreddine

Abstract:

Following a long inflationary period from the post-war era to the mid-1980s (+10.1% annually), France went through a moderate inflation period between 1986 and 2001 (+2.1% annually) and even lower inflation between 2002 and 2016 (+1.4% annually). In 2022, inflation in France increased rapidly and reached 4.5% over one year in March, according to INSEE estimates. Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. Considering a mixed-asset portfolio composed of housing assets (residential real estate in 150 Grand Paris communes) as well as financial assets, and using both correlation and regression analysis, results confirm the attribute of the direct housing investment as an inflation hedge especially particularly against its unexpected component. Further, cash and bonds were found to provide respectively a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant positive hedge against expected inflation.

Keywords: direct housing, inflation, hedging ability, optimal portfolio, Grand Paris metropolis

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
1208 Monitoring of Serological Test of Blood Serum in Indicator Groups of the Population of Central Kazakhstan

Authors: Praskovya Britskaya, Fatima Shaizadina, Alua Omarova, Nessipkul Alysheva

Abstract:

Planned preventive vaccination, which is carried out in the Republic of Kazakhstan, promoted permanent decrease in the incidence of measles and viral hepatitis B. In the structure of VHB patients prevail people of young, working age. Monitoring of infectious incidence, monitoring of coverage of immunization of the population, random serological control over the immunity enable well-timed identification of distribution of the activator, effectiveness of the taken measures and forecasting. The serological blood analysis was conducted in indicator groups of the population of Central Kazakhstan for the purpose of identification of antibody titre for vaccine preventable infections (measles, viral hepatitis B). Measles antibodies were defined by method of enzyme-linked assay (ELA) with test-systems "VektoKor" – Ig G ('Vektor-Best' JSC). Antibodies for HBs-antigen of hepatitis B virus in blood serum was identified by method of enzyme-linked assay (ELA) with VektoHBsAg test systems – antibodies ('Vektor-Best' JSC). The result of the analysis is positive, the concentration of IgG to measles virus in the studied sample is equal to 0.18 IU/ml or more. Protective level of concentration of anti-HBsAg makes 10 mIU/ml. The results of the study of postvaccinal measles immunity showed that the share of seropositive people made 87.7% of total number of surveyed. The level of postvaccinal immunity to measles in age groups differs. So, among people older than 56 the percentage of seropositive made 95.2%. Among people aged 15-25 were registered 87.0% seropositive, at the age of 36-45 – 86.6%. In age groups of 25-35 and 36-45 the share of seropositive people was approximately at the same level – 88.5% and 88.8% respectively. The share of people seronegative to a measles virus made 12.3%. The biggest share of seronegative people was found among people aged 36-45 – 13.4% and 15-25 – 13.0%. The analysis of results of the examined people for the existence of postvaccinal immunity to viral hepatitis B showed that from all surveyed only 33.5% have the protective level of concentration of anti-HBsAg of 10 mIU/ml and more. The biggest share of people protected from VHB virus is observed in the age group of 36-45 and makes 60%. In the indicator group – above 56 – seropositive people made 4.8%. The high percentage of seronegative people has been observed in all studied age groups from 40.0% to 95.2%. The group of people which is least protected from getting VHB is people above 56 (95.2%). The probability to get VHB is also high among young people aged 25-35, the percentage of seronegative people made 80%. Thus, the results of the conducted research testify to the need for carrying out serological monitoring of postvaccinal immunity for the purpose of operational assessment of the epidemiological situation, early identification of its changes and prediction of the approaching danger.

Keywords: antibodies, blood serum, immunity, immunoglobulin

Procedia PDF Downloads 238
1207 Installing Photovoltaic Panels to Generate Optimal Energy in SPAV Hostel, Vijayawada

Authors: J. Jayasuriya

Abstract:

In this research paper, a procedure for installing and assessment of a solar PV plant to generate optimal solar energy SPAV hostel at Vijayawada city was analyzed. The hostel was experiencing power disruption and had a need for an unceasing energy source. The solar panel is one of the best solutions to obtain uninterrupted clean renewable energy for an institutional building as it neither makes din nor pollutes the atmosphere. The electricity usage per month was initially measured to discriminate the energy change. The solar array was installed with its financial and environmental assessment considering recent market prices. All the aspects related to a solar PV plant were considered for the feasibility and efficiency of PV plant near this site i.e., the orientation of the site, the size and shape of the terrace, the sun path were considered while installing panels. Various precautions were taken to intercept the factors which cause interference in energy generation, with respect to temperature, overshadowing, the wiring of panels, pollution etc. The solar panels were frequently installed, monitored and maintained properly to procure optimal energy output. Result obtained with the assessment of the proposed plant and deflation in the electric bill will show the maximal energy that can be generated in a month on that particular site.

Keywords: solar efficiency, building sustainability, PV panel, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
1206 [Keynote Talk]: Production Flow Coordination on Supply Chains: Brazilian Case Studies

Authors: Maico R. Severino, Laura G. Caixeta, Nadine M. Costa, Raísa L. T. Napoleão, Éverton F. V. Valle, Diego D. Calixto, Danielle Oliveira

Abstract:

One of the biggest barriers that companies find nowadays is the coordination of production flow in their Supply Chains (SC). In this study, coordination is understood as a mechanism for incorporating the entire production channel, with everyone involved focused on achieving the same goals. Sometimes, this coordination is attempted by the use of logistics practices or production plan and control methods. No papers were found in the literature that presented the combined use of logistics practices and production plan and control methods. The main objective of this paper is to propose solutions for six case studies combining logistics practices and Ordering Systems (OS). The methodology used in this study was a conceptual model of decision making. This model contains six phases: a) the analysis the types and characteristics of relationships in the SC; b) the choice of the OS; c) the choice of the logistics practices; d) the development of alternative proposals of combined use; e) the analysis of the consistency of the chosen alternative; f) the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact on the coordination of the production flow and the verification of applicability of the proposal in the real case. This study was conducted on six Brazilian SC of different sectors: footwear, food and beverages, garment, sugarcane, mineral and metal mechanical. The results from this study showed that there was improvement in the coordination of the production flow through the following proposals: a) for the footwear industry the use of Period Bath Control (PBC), Quick Response (QR) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP); b) for the food and beverage sector firstly the use of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), ERP, Continuous Replenishment (CR) and Drum-Buffer-Rope Order (DBR) (for situations in which the plants of both companies are distant), and secondly EDI, ERP, Milk-Run and Review System Continues (for situations in which the plants of both companies are close); c) for the garment industry the use of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) and Constant Work-In-Process (CONWIP) System; d) for the sugarcane sector the use of EDI, ERP and CONWIP System; e) for the mineral processes industry the use of Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), EDI and MaxMin Control System; f) for the metal mechanical sector the use of CONWIP System and Continuous Replenishment (CR). It should be emphasized that the proposals are exclusively recommended for the relationship between client and supplier studied. Therefore, it cannot be generalized to other cases. However, what can be generalized is the methodology used to choose the best practices for each case. Based on the study, it can be concluded that the combined use of OS and logistics practices enable a better coordination of flow production on SC.

Keywords: supply chain management, production flow coordination, logistics practices, ordering systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 192
1205 Creating Trauma-Sensitive Yoga Programs for University Students With Stress and Anxiety: Lessons From a Program in the United States

Authors: Jessica Gladden

Abstract:

Anxiety remains one of the most common mental health disorders in the United States. Many university students report having a high level of anxiety, with additional life stressors that might include being away from home for the first time, being around unfamiliar people, having new expectations placed on them, and often have financial struggles. Universities have the ability and opportunity to form programs that can involve students with activities that reduce stress and teach coping skills. This research includes one example of using a somatic based group format of yoga to teach these skills and assist students in applying these strategies to their daily lives. This study compared a group of 17 students participating in weekly yoga classes to 34 students who did not attend the program. The students who attended the program reported a larger reduction of anxiety on both the BAI and GAD-7 than the control group, and verbally reported additional benefits in relaxation and coping skills. This presentation will review the results of the program as well as detailing the steps taken in creating a yoga program for university students with stress and anxiety. This will include a discussion on the components of trauma-sensitive yoga and the concerns and strategies to consider when developing a program for students.

Keywords: yoga, trauma-sensitive yoga, anxiety, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
1204 Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating Ground Motion Parameters

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
1203 Present State of Local Public Transportation Service in Local Municipalities of Japan and Its Effects on Population

Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

Abstract:

We are facing regional problems to low birth rate and longevity in Japan. Under this situation, there are some local municipalities which lose their vitality. The aims of this study are to clarify the present state of local public transportation services in local municipalities and relation between local public transportation services and population quantitatively. We conducted a questionnaire survey concerning regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the present state of convenience in use of public transportation and local public transportation services. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that we should some sort of measures concerning public transportation services. Convenience in use of public transportation becomes an object of public concern in many rural regions. It is also clarified that some local municipalities introduce a demand bus for the purpose of promotion of administrative and financial efficiency. They also introduce a demand taxi in order to secure transportation to weak people in transportation and eliminate of blank area related to public transportation services. In addition, we construct a population model which includes explanatory variables of present states of local public transportation services. From this result, we can clarify the relation between public transportation services and population quantitatively.

Keywords: public transportation, local municipality, regional analysis, regional issue

Procedia PDF Downloads 382
1202 Risk Factor of Anal Incontinence among Women in Makassar

Authors: Azizah Nurdin, Trika Irianta, Mardiah Tahir, Maisuri T. Chalid

Abstract:

Background: Studies of anal incontinence in the general population are rare however its financial healthcare cost is significant. Women attended Hasanuddin University Teaching Hospital and its networking in Makassar, Indonesia was surveyed between February to April 2015 about their obstetrical and gynecological history. Aims: To establish obstetrical risk factor of anal incontinence among women in Makassar. Methods: In a cross sectional face to face interview study, 135 women aged 30 years or more were selected randomly. Participants were asked to complete an anal incontinence questionnaire. Results: From a total sample of 135 respondents, 42,2 % reported has flatulence incontinence. Parity, history of anal sphincter laceration, history of having large baby, history of assisted vaginal delivery were shown have no significant association with anal incontinence, while history of episiotomy was shown have a significant association with anal incontinence (p value < 0.05). The risk of flatulence incontinence was higher among women with history of episiotomy (OR : 2,85, 95 % CI = 1,58- 5,13) Conclusions: This study has confirmed that fecal incontinence is a fairly common symptom. Flatulence incontinence is the most frequent even. An obstetrical factor like episiotomy is one of risk factor that could be avoided in order to prevent anal incontinence.

Keywords: anal incontinence, flatulence incontinence, obstetrical risk factor, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
1201 The Role of Interactive White Boards towards Achieving Transactional Learning in the Context of Open Distance Learning

Authors: M. Van Zyl, M. H. A. Combrinck, E. J. Spamer

Abstract:

Due to the need for higher education in South Africa, the country experiences a rapid growth in open distance learning, especially in rural areas. It is difficult for people to enrol fulltime at contact universities, owing to work and financial constraints. The Unit for Open Distance Learning (UODL) at the North-West University (NWU), Potchefstroom campus, South Africa was established in 2013 with its main function to deliver open distance learning programmes to 30 000 students from the Faculties of Education Sciences, Theology and Health Sciences. With the use of interactive whiteboards (IWBs), the NWU and UODL are now able to deliver lectures to students concurrently at 60 regional open learning centres across Southern Africa as well as to an unlimited number of individuals with Internet access worldwide. Although IWBs are not new, our initiative is to use them more extensively in order to create more contact between lecturers and students. To be able to ensure and enhance quality education it is vital to determine students’ perceptions on the delivery of programmes by means of IWBs. Therefore, the aim of the study is to explore students’ perceptions for the use of IWBs in the delivery of programmes in terms of Moore’s Theory of Transactional Distance.

Keywords: interactive white board, open distance learning, technology, transactional learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
1200 A Probabilistic Theory of the Buy-Low and Sell-High for Algorithmic Trading

Authors: Peter Shi

Abstract:

Algorithmic trading is a rapidly expanding domain within quantitative finance, constituting a substantial portion of trading volumes in the US financial market. The demand for rigorous and robust mathematical theories underpinning these trading algorithms is ever-growing. In this study, the author establishes a new stock market model that integrates the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the statistical arbitrage. The model, for the first time, finds probabilistic relations between the rational price and the market price in terms of the conditional expectation. The theory consequently leads to a mathematical justification of the old market adage: buy-low and sell-high. The thresholds for “low” and “high” are precisely derived using a max-min operation on Bayes’s error. This explicit connection harmonizes the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Statistical Arbitrage, demonstrating their compatibility in explaining market dynamics. The amalgamation represents a pioneering contribution to quantitative finance. The study culminates in comprehensive numerical tests using historical market data, affirming that the “buy-low” and “sell-high” algorithm derived from this theory significantly outperforms the general market over the long term in four out of six distinct market environments.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance, Bayes' decision, algorithmic trading, risk control, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 59
1199 Risk Assessment of Flood Defences by Utilising Condition Grade Based Probabilistic Approach

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

Abstract:

Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 218
1198 Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism

Authors: Covadonga Mallada Fernández

Abstract:

Economic development and globalization of international markets have created a favourable atmosphere for the emergence of new forms of crime such as money laundering or financing of terrorism, which may contribute to destabilized and damage economic systems. In particular, money laundering have acquired great importance since the 11S attacks, what has caused on the one hand, the establishment and development of preventive measures and, on the other hand, a progressive hardening of penal measures. Since then, the regulations imposed to fight against money laundering have been viewed as key components also in the fight against terrorist financing. Terrorism, at the beginning, was a “national” crime connected with internal problems of the State (for instance the RAF in Germany or ETA in Spain) but in the last 20 years has started to be an international problem that is connected with the defence and security of the States. Therefore, the new strategic concept for the defense and security of NATO has a comprehensive list of security threats to the Alliance, such as terrorism, international instability, money laundering or attacks on cyberspace, among others. With this new concept, money laundering and terrorism has become a priority in the national defense. In this work we will analyze the methods to combat these new threats to the national security. We will study the preventive legislations to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism, the UIF that exchange information between States, and the hawala-Banking.

Keywords: control of financial flows, money laundering, terrorism, financing of terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 441
1197 The Aspect of Urban Inequality after Urban Redevelopment Projects

Authors: Sungik Kang, Ja-Hoon Koo

Abstract:

Globally, urban environments have become unequal, and cities have been segmented by income class. It is predicted that urban inequality has arisen by urban redevelopment and reconstruction projects that improve the urban environment and innovate cities. This study aims to analyze the occurrence and characteristics of urban inequality by using the housing price and sale price and demonstrating the correlation with the urban redevelopment project. This study measures 14 years of urban inequality index for 25 autonomous districts in Seoul and analyzes the correlation between urban inequality with urban redevelopment projects. As a conclusion of this study, first, the urban inequality index of Seoul has been continuously rising since 2015. Trends from 2006 to 2019 have been in U-curved shape in between 2015. In 2019, Seoul's urban inequality index was 0.420, a level similar to that of the 2007 financial crisis. Second, the correlation between urban redevelopment and urban inequality was not statistically significant. Therefore, we judged that urban redevelopment's scale or project structure has nothing with urban inequality. Third, while district designation of urban reconstruction temporarily alleviates urban inequality, the completion of the project increases urban inequality. When designating a district, urban inequality is likely to decrease due to decreased outdated housing transactions. However, the correlation with urban inequality increases as expensive houses has been placed after project completion.

Keywords: urban inequality, urban redevelopment projects, urban reconstruction projects, housing price inequality, panel analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 192
1196 Key Success Factors for Malaysian SMES Companies’ Entrepreneurial Leader

Authors: Zainal Abu Zarim, Hafizah Omar Zaki

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to analyse the success factors of entrepreneurs in the Malaysian SMEs in the urge to discover their entrepreneurial leadership characteristics. Data has been collected from top 50 SME award winning companies. The study has used the qualitative approach to data collection, where interviews are dispersed on these selected companies. From these 50 SMEs, only 25 accepted the interview request where one entrepreneur from each SME answered the questions. To successfully run this study, we administered some questions based on Hornaday 42 characteristics of an entrepreneurs, as well some structured questions to determine a successful of a company. The result shows that, entrepreneurs are confident, determine, diligent, flexible, responsive to challenges, responsible, foresight, courageous, aggressive, and committed. Consistent to this, several elements that makes the company successful includes (1) strong financial control, (2) continuous improvement, (3) product quality and product safety as top priority, (4) hard work and team work, and (5) eagerness in taking challenges. These results has deemed that entrepreneurs in many aspects are also leaders that are risk averse and determine, and are eager to work on continuous improvement in a financially strong company.

Keywords: characteristics of entrepreneurs, success of a company, key success factors, Malaysian SMEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 581
1195 Foreign Real Estate Investment and the Australian Residential Property Market: A Study on Chinese Investors

Authors: Peng Yew Wong

Abstract:

House prices in the Australian capital cities were at record levels subsequent to Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008 and many believed that foreign investors, especially the Chinese investors, were the main reason for the Australian capital cities’ house prices escalation. This research conducted an Australian cross border semi-structured interviews in Shanghai, China to uncover historical evidence and emerging trend supporting the existence of a significant relationship between overseas investors and residential housing markets performance in Australia subsequent to the GFC 2008. Some unique investment strategies of private investors from China which emphasised on non-capitalist factors such as early education were identified, alongside with some insights on the significant China government policies that have incentivised the cross border investments from China. It is believed that this understanding will assist policy makers to effectively manage the overheated Australian residential property market without compromising the steady flow of FREI.

Keywords: Australian housing market, residential property, foreign real estate investment, education, China investor

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
1194 Board Regulation and Its Impact on Composition and Effects: Evidence from German Cooperative Banks

Authors: Markus Stralla

Abstract:

This study employs a GMM framework to examine the impact of potential regulatory intervention regarding the occupations of supervisory board members in cooperative banking. To achieve insights, the study proceeds in two different ways. First, it investigates the changes in board structure prior and following to the German Act to Strengthen Financial Market and Insurance Supervision (FinVAG). Second, the study estimates the influence of Ph.D.Share, professional concentration and supervisory power on bank-risk changes in consideration of the implementation of FinVAG. Therefore, the study is based on a sample of 246 German cooperative banks from 2006-2011 while applying four different measures of bank risk, namely credit-, equity-, liquidity-risk, and Z-Score, with the former three also being addressed in FinVAG. Results indicate that the implementation of FinVAG results in (most likely unintentional) structural changes, especially at the expense of farmers, and affects all risk measures and relations between risk measures and supervisory board characteristics in a risk-reducing and therefore intended way. To disentangle the complex relationship between board characteristics and risk measures, the study utilizes two-step system GMM estimator to account for unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity in order to reduce endogeneity problems. The findings may be especially relevant for stakeholders, regulators, supervisors and managers.

Keywords: bank governance, bank risk-taking, board of directors, regulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 418
1193 Evaluation of Institutionalization in Public Hospitals: A Province Example

Authors: Manar Aslan, Ayse Yildiz

Abstract:

The study was conducted descriptively to assess their hospital institutionalization of upper and mid-level managers of 18 hospitals affiliated to Public Hospitals Association. In its simplest form institutionalization is whatever the subject matter, is dominated by the rules of articulated and determined behavior in all kinds of business, interaction, and communication. Hospital service is a type of service carried out chained together. It should not be forgotten that this kind of services is carried out without barrier, and who and what to do with definite lines, hospital management is a process, and this process can be achieved through institutionalization. With the establishment of the Public Hospitals Unions in Turkey, all the state hospitals in the provinces have been gathered under this roof. One of the goals is to establish control mechanisms to ensure that hospitals reach pre-determined financial, medical, and administrative standards. In this way, the preparations for the institutionalization of units and hospital enterprises will be completed. The data of the study were collected by institutionalization management attitude scale (cronbach alpha: 0.98) of composed of 5 sub-dimensions and 52 questions in 18 hospitals’ managers (N=310) in the largest province in Turkey. The results of the study revealed that the total score taken by managers at the institutionalization scale was 200.80, and this was close to the maximum score. In addition, it was determined that the difference between the mean score of the scale and its sub-dimensions with the gender, the hospitals, and the management position.

Keywords: institutionalization, hospital, manager, evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 210
1192 A Stochastic Volatility Model for Optimal Market-Making

Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

Abstract:

The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
1191 Optimization of Syngas Quality for Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

Authors: Ali Rabah

Abstract:

This research received no grant or financial support from any public, commercial, or none governmental agency. The author conducted this work as part of his normal research activities as a professor of Chemical Engineering at the University of Khartoum, Sudan. Abstract While fossil oil reserves have been receding, the demand for diesel and gasoline has been growing. In recent years, syngas of biomass origin has been emerging as a viable feedstock for Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis, a process for manufacturing synthetic gasoline and diesel. This paper reports the optimization of syngas quality to match FT synthesis requirements. The optimization model maximizes the thermal efficiency under the constraint of H2/CO≥2.0 and operating conditions of equivalent ratio (0 ≤ ER ≤ 1.0), steam to biomass ratio (0 ≤ SB ≤ 5), and gasification temperature (500 °C ≤ Tg ≤ 1300 °C). The optimization model is executed using the optimization section of the Model Analysis Tools of the Aspen Plus simulator. The model is tested using eleven (11) types of MSW. The optimum operating conditions under which the objective function and the constraint are satisfied are ER=0, SB=0.66-1.22, and Tg=679 - 763°C. Under the optimum operating conditions, the syngas quality is H2=52.38 - 58.67-mole percent, LHV=12.55 - 17.15 MJ/kg, N2=0.38 - 2.33-mole percent, and H2/CO≥2.15. The generalized optimization model reported could be extended to any other type of biomass and coal. Keywords: MSW, Syngas, Optimization, Fischer-Tropsch.

Keywords: syngas, MSW, optimization, Fisher-Tropsh

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
1190 Practical Strategies: Challenges in Transforming Theoretical Know-How into Practice for Offering Value-Added Amenities and Services

Authors: Mohammad Ayub Khan

Abstract:

With increased market segmentation and competition in the hotel industry, a hotel’s ability to constantly renovate its services and amenities is a business practice that can be termed as an attitude that is not only flexible but also malleable as a result of which a hotel/property is continually poised to face the ever-changing nature of the hospitality industry and upgrades that keep the hotel or brand in competition with current competitors. One such challenge is to competitively and creatively market value-added amenities, upgraded technology, and marketing all of these as a package to not only stay relevant in the market but also to retain and enhance revenues to ensure the future financial health of a hotel. This delicate balance between staying relevant and financially viable is a crucial challenge that this poster will explore, analyze, and present by specifically looking at the ability of a hotel/brand to effectively translate its theoretical need and practice of constantly staying updated, including strategically renovating, upgrading, modifying its services, into a tangible business practice. In what ways do hotels face this challenge? In what areas of the hotel is this business concept/action most effective and profitable are just some questions that this paper will attempt to answer.

Keywords: hospitality theory, renovations, value-added amenities, strategic planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
1189 The Governance of Islamic Banks in Morocco: Meaning, Strategic Vision and Purposes Attributed to the Governance System

Authors: Lalla Nezha Lakmiti, Abdelkahar Zahid

Abstract:

Due to the setbacks on the international scene and the wave of cacophonic financial scandals affecting large international groups, the new Islamic finance industry is not immune despite its initial resistance. The purpose of this paper is to understand and analyze the meaning of the Corporate Governance (CG) concept in Moroccan Islamic banking systems with specific reference to their institutions. The research objective is to identify also the path taken and adopted by these banks recently set up in Morocco. The foundation is rooted in shari'a, in particular, no stakeholder (the shareholding approach) must be harmed, and the ethical value is reflected into these parties’ behavior. We chose a qualitative method, semi-structured interviews where six managers provided answers about their banking systems. Since these respondents held a senior position (directors) within their organizations, it is felt that they are well placed and have the necessary knowledge to provide us with information to answer the questions asked. The results identified the orientation of participating banks and assessing how governance works, while determining which party is fovoured: shareholders, stakeholders or both. This study discusses the favorable condition to the harmonization of the regulations and therefore a better integration between Islamic finance and conventional ones in the economic context of Morocco.

Keywords: corporate governance, Islamic Banks, stakeholders, shareholders

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
1188 A Real-World Roadmap and Exploration of Quantum Computers Capacity to Trivialise Internet Security

Authors: James Andrew Fitzjohn

Abstract:

This paper intends to discuss and explore the practical aspects of cracking encrypted messages with quantum computers. The theory of this process has been shown and well described both in academic papers and headline-grabbing news articles, but with all theory and hyperbole, we must be careful to assess the practicalities of these claims. Therefore, we will use real-world devices and proof of concept code to prove or disprove the notion that quantum computers will render the encryption technologies used by many websites unfit for purpose. It is time to discuss and implement the practical aspects of the process as many advances in quantum computing hardware/software have recently been made. This paper will set expectations regarding the useful lifespan of RSA and cipher lengths and propose alternative encryption technologies. We will set out comprehensive roadmaps describing when and how encryption schemes can be used, including when they can no longer be trusted. The cost will also be factored into our investigation; for example, it would make little financial sense to spend millions of dollars on a quantum computer to factor a private key in seconds when a commodity GPU could perform the same task in hours. It is hoped that the real-world results depicted in this paper will help influence the owners of websites who can take appropriate actions to improve the security of their provisions.

Keywords: quantum computing, encryption, RSA, roadmap, real world

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
1187 Challenges for Municipal Solid Waste Management in India: A Case Study of Eluru, Andhra Pradesh

Authors: V. V. Prasada Rao P., K. Venkata Subbaiah, J. Sudhir Kumar

Abstract:

Most Indian cities or townships are facing greater challenges in proper disposal of their municipal solid wastes, which are growing exponentially with the rising urban population and improvement in the living standards. As per the provisional figures, 377 million people live in the urban areas accounting for 31.16 % of the Country’s total population, and expected to grow by 3.74% every year. In India, the municipal authority is liable for the safe management & disposal of Municipal Solid Wastes. However, even with the current levels of MSW generation, a majority of the local governments are unable to comply with their constitutional responsibility due to reasons ranging from cultural aspects to technological and financial constraints. In contrast, it is expected that the MSW generation in India is likely to increase from 68.8 MTD in 2011 to 160.5 MTD by 2041. Thus, the immediate challenge before the urban local bodies in India is to evolve suitable strategies not only to cope up with the current levels, but also to address the anticipated generation levels of MSW. This paper discusses the reasons for the low levels of enforcement of MSW Rules and suggests effective management strategies for the safe disposal of MSW.

Keywords: biodegradable waste, dumping sites, management strategy, municipal solid waste (MSW), MSW rules, vermicompost

Procedia PDF Downloads 285
1186 Maintenance Management Practice for Building

Authors: Harold Jideofor Nnachetam

Abstract:

Maintenance management in Nigeria Polytechnic faced many issues due to poor service delivery, inadequate finance, and poor maintenance plan and maintenance backlogs. The purpose of this study is to improve the conventional method practices which tend to be ineffective in Nigeria Polytechnic. The case study was conducted with eight Polytechnics in Nigeria. The selected Polytechnic is based on conventional method practices and its major problems, attempt to implement computerized technology and the willingness of staff to share their experiences. All feedbacks from respondents through semi-structured interview were recorded using video camera and transcribed verbatim. The overall findings of this research indicated; poor service delivery, inadequate financial, poor maintenance planning and maintenance backlogs. There is also need to overcome less man power competencies of maintenance management practices which existed with all eight Polytechnics. In addition, the study also found that the Polytechnics still use conventional maintenance management processes in managing building facility condition. As a result, the maintenance management staff was not able to improve the maintenance management performance at the Polytechnics. The findings are intended to be used for maintenance management practices at Nigeria Polytechnics in order to provide high-quality of building facility with safe and healthy environments.

Keywords: maintenance management, conventional method, maintenance management system, Nigeria polytechnic

Procedia PDF Downloads 301
1185 A Methodology for Optimisation of Water Containment Systems

Authors: Amir Hedjripour

Abstract:

The required dewatering configuration for a contaminated sediment dam is discussed to meet no-spill criteria for a defined Average Recurrence Interval (ARI). There is an option for the sediment dam to pump the contaminated water to another storage facility before its capacity is exceeded. The system is subjected to a range of storm durations belonging to the design ARI with concurrent dewatering to the other storage facility. The model is set up in 1-minute time intervals and temporal patterns of storm events are used to de-segregate the total storm depth into partial durations. By running the model for selected storm durations, the maximum water volume in the dam is recorded as the critical volume, which indicates the required storage capacity for that storm duration. Runoff from upstream catchment and the direct rainfall over the dam open area are calculated by taking into account the time of concentration for the catchment. Total 99 different storm durations from 5 minutes to 72 hours were modelled together with five dewatering scenarios from 50 l/s to 500 l/s. The optimised dam/pump configuration is selected by plotting critical points for all cases and storage-dewatering envelopes. A simple economic analysis is also presented in the paper using Present-Value (PV) analysis to assist with the financial evaluation of each configuration and selection of the best alternative.

Keywords: contaminated water, optimisation, pump, sediment dam

Procedia PDF Downloads 352
1184 Measuring Audit Quality Using Text Analysis: An Empirical Study of Indian Companies

Authors: Leesa Mohanty, Ashok Banerjee

Abstract:

Better audit quality signifies the financial statements of the auditee firm reflect true and fair view of their actual state of affairs, which reduces information asymmetry between management and shareholders, as a result, helps protect interests of shareholders. This study examines the impact of joint audit on audit quality. It is motivated by the ongoing debate where The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI), the regulatory body governing auditors, has advocated the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the mandatory use of joint audit in private banks to enhance the quality of audit. Earlier, the Government of India had rejected the plea by ICAI for mandatory joint audits in large companies stating it is not a viable option for promoting domestic firms. We introduce a new measure of audit quality. Drawing from the domain of text analytics, we use relevant phrases in audit reports to gauge audit quality and demonstrate that joint audit improves audit quality. We also, for robustness, use prevalent proxy for audit quality (Big N Auditor, ratio of audit fees to total fees) and find negative effect of joint audit on audit quality. We, therefore highlight that different proxy for audit quality show opposite effect of joint audit.

Keywords: audit fees, audit quality, Big N. Auditor, joint audit

Procedia PDF Downloads 332
1183 Comparison of Urban Regeneration Strategies in Asia and the Development of Neighbourhood Regeneration in Malaysia

Authors: Wan Jiun Tin

Abstract:

Neighborhood regeneration has gained its popularity despite market-led urban redevelopment is still the main strategy in most of the countries in Asia. Area-based approach of neighborhood regeneration with the focus on people, place and system which covers the main sustainable aspects shall be studied as part of the solution. Project implementation in small scale without fully depending on the financial support from the government and main stakeholders is the advantage of neighborhood regeneration. This enables the improving and upgrading of living conditions to be ongoing even during the economy downturn. In addition to that, there will be no specific selection on the development areas as the entire nation share the similar opportunity to upgrade and to improve their neighborhood. This is important to narrow the income disparities in urban. The objective of this paper is to review and to summarize the urban regeneration in developed countries with the focus on Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. The aim is to determine the direction of sustainable urban regeneration in Malaysia for post-Vision 2020 through the introduction of neighborhood regeneration. This paper is conducted via literature review and observations in those selected countries. In conclusion, neighborhood regeneration shall be one of the approach of sustainable urban regeneration in Malaysia. A few criteria have been identified and to be recommended for the adaptation in Malaysia.

Keywords: area-based regeneration, public participation, sustainable urban regeneration, urban redevelopment

Procedia PDF Downloads 258
1182 PPPs as Panacea to Delivery of Public Sector Construction Project in Zimbabwe

Authors: Ringisai Abigail Mawondo-Dhliwayo, Kahilu Kajimo-Shakantu

Abstract:

Due to financial challenges which governments in general face, it is becoming more difficult for many to continually use their limited resources to undertake infrastructural development. Governments increasingly now need other delivery approaches, in particular, the Public-Private Partnerships which make it possible for the public sector to achieve infrastructural development without incurring any/minimum cost. The literature reviewed outlined that benefits of PPPs include timely delivery of quality projects with cost limits. The methodology utilized for the empirical study comprised six interviews and sixty questionnaires which were undertaken and administered by construction consultants and government officials involved in PPPs projects. The results obtained showed that PPPs are not widely used in Zimbabwe although the need for their use exists. The study also found some challenges which prevent or derail the rate at which PPPs are utilized, of which the primary one was a political influence. It is concluded that despite limitations, PPPs remain the most effective and viable option for the delivery of government projects. The study recommends that policy and framework for the implementation of PPPs be developed. More useful information could have been obtained if final users of PPPs projects were included in the sample for data collection.

Keywords: construction projects, procurement, public private partnerships, public sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
1181 The Martingale Options Price Valuation for European Puts Using Stochastic Differential Equation Models

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
1180 Churn Prediction for Savings Bank Customers: A Machine Learning Approach

Authors: Prashant Verma

Abstract:

Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 125