Search results for: hazard index

Authors: Mebruka Mohammed, Daniel Bisrat, Asfaw Debella, Tarekegn Birhanu

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Lack of quality control standards for medicinal plants and their preparations is considered major barrier to their integration in to effective primary health care in Ethiopia. Poor quality herbal preparations led to countless adverse reactions extending to death. Denial of penetration for the Ethiopian medicinal plants in to the world’s booming herbal market is also another significant loss resulting from absence of herbal quality control system. Thus, in the present study, Gnidia stenophylla Gilg (popular antimalarial plant of south eastern Ethiopia), is standardized and a full monograph is produced that can serve as a guideline in quality control of the crude drug. Morphologically, the roots are found to be cylindrical and tapering towards the end. It has a hard, corky and friable touch with saddle brown color externally and it is relatively smooth and pale brown internally. It has got characteristic pungent odor and very bitter taste. Microscopically it has showed lignified xylem vessels, wider medullary rays with some calcium oxalate crystals, reddish brown secondary metabolite contents and slender shaped long fibres. Physicochemical standards quantified and resulted: foreign matter (5.25%), moisture content (6.69%), total ash (40.80%), acid insoluble ash (8.00%), water soluble ash (2.30%), alcohol soluble extractive (15.27%), water soluble extractive (10.98%), foaming index (100.01 ml/g), swelling index (7.60 ml/g). Phytochemically: Phenols, flavonoids, steroids, tannins and saponins were detected in the root extract; TLC and HPLC fingerprints were produced and an analytical marker was also tentatively characterized as 3-(3,4-dihydro-3,5-dihydroxy-2-(4-hydroxy-5-methylhex-1-en-2-yl)-7-methoxy-4-oxo-2H-chromen-8-yl)-5-hydroxy-2-(4-hydroxyphenyl)-7-methoxy-4H-chromen-4-one. Residue wise pesticides (i.e. DDT, DDE, g-BHC) and radiochemical levels fall below the WHO limit while Heavy metals (i.e. Co, Ni, Cr, Pb, and Cu), total aerobic count and fungal load lie way above the WHO limit. In conclusion, the result can be taken as signal that employing non standardized medicinal plants could cause many health risks of the Ethiopian people and Africans’ at large (as 80% of inhabitants in the continent depends on it for primary health care). Therefore, following a more universal approach to herbal quality by adopting the WHO guidelines and developing monographs using the various quality parameters is inevitable to minimize quality breach and promote effective herbal drug usage.

Keywords: Gnidia stenophylla Gilg, standardization/monograph, pharmacognostic, residue/impurity, quality

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Authors: B. B. S. Pereira, M. O. Souza, L. P. Zanetti, L. C. S. Oliveira, J. R. P. Moreno, M. P. Souza, V. R. Colturato, C. M. Machado

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Background: The introduction of prophylactic or preemptive therapies has effectively decreased the CMV mortality rates after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). CMV antigenemia (pp65) or quantitative PCR are methods currently approved for CMV surveillance in pre-emptive strategies. Commercial assays are preferred as cut-off levels defined by in-house assays may vary among different protocols and in general show low reproducibility. Moreover, comparison of published data among different centers is only possible if international standards of quantification are included in the assays. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) established the first international standard for CMV detection. The real time PCR COBAS Ampliprep/ CobasTaqMan (CAP/CTM) (Roche®) was developed using the WHO standard for CMV quantification. However, the cut-off for the introduction of antiviral has not been determined yet. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study to determine: 1) the sensitivity and specificity of the new CMV CAP/CTM test in comparison with pp65 antigenemia to detect episodes of CMV infection/reactivation, and 2) the cut-off of viral load for introduction of ganciclovir (GCV). Pp65 antigenemia was performed and the corresponding plasma samples were stored at -20°C for further CMV detection by CAP/CTM. Comparison of tests was performed by kappa index. The appearance of positive antigenemia was considered the state variable to determine the cut-off of CMV viral load by ROC curve. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 19 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA.). Results: Thirty-eight patients were included and followed from August 2014 through May 2015. The antigenemia test detected 53 episodes of CMV infection in 34 patients (89.5%), while CAP/CTM detected 37 episodes in 33 patients (86.8%). AG and PCR results were compared in 431 samples and Kappa index was 30.9%. The median time for first AG detection was 42 (28-140) days, while CAP/CTM detected at a median of 7 days earlier (34 days, ranging from 7 to 110 days). The optimum cut-off value of CMV DNA was 34.25 IU/mL to detect positive antigenemia with 88.2% of sensibility, 100% of specificity and AUC of 0.91. This cut-off value is below the limit of detection and quantification of the equipment which is 56 IU/mL. According to CMV recurrence definition, 16 episodes of CMV recurrence were detected by antigenemia (47.1%) and 4 (12.1%) by CAP/CTM. The duration of viremia as detected by antigenemia was shorter (60.5% of the episodes lasted ≤ 7 days) in comparison to CAP/CTM (57.9% of the episodes lasting 15 days or more). This data suggests that the use of antigenemia to define the duration of GCV therapy might prompt early interruption of antiviral, which may favor CMV reactivation. The CAP/CTM PCR could possibly provide a safer information concerning the duration of GCV therapy. As prolonged treatment may increase the risk of toxicity, this hypothesis should be confirmed in prospective trials. Conclusions: Even though CAP/CTM by ROCHE showed great qualitative correlation with the antigenemia technique, the fully automated CAP/CTM did not demonstrate increased sensitivity. The cut-off value below the limit of detection and quantification may result in delayed introduction of pre-emptive therapy.

Keywords: antigenemia, CMV COBAS/TAQMAN, cytomegalovirus, antiviral cut-off

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Maidul Islam, Dibakar Roy Chowdhury, Gagan Kumar

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We investigate sensing capabilities of a planar plasmonic THz waveguide. The waveguide is comprised of one dimensional array of periodically arranged sub wavelength scale corrugations in the form of rectangular dimples in order to ensure the plasmonic response. The THz waveguide transmission is observed for polyimide (as thin film) substance filling the dimples. The refractive index of the polyimide film is varied to examine various sensing parameters such as frequency shift, sensitivity and Figure of Merit (FoM) of the fundamental plasmonic resonance supported by the waveguide. In efforts to improve sensing characteristics, we also examine sensing capabilities of a plasmonic waveguide having V shaped corrugations and compare results with that of rectangular dimples. The proposed study could be significant in developing new terahertz sensors with improved sensitivity utilizing the plasmonic waveguides.

Keywords: plasmonics, sensors, sub-wavelength structures, terahertz

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Authors: Louati Salma, Louhichi Awatef, Boujelbene Younes

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Analysis of the trade-off between competition and financial stability has been at the center of academic and policy debate for over two decades and especially since the 2007-2008 global financial crises. We use information on 10 OIC countries from 2005 to 2014 to investigate the influence of bank competition on individual bank stability and risk-taking. Alternatively, we explore whether the quality of prudential regulation may affect the nexus between competition and banking stability/risk-taking. We provide a particular attention to the Islamic banking system which principally involves with the Riba-free instruments as compared to the conventional interest-based system. We first run a dynamic panel regression (GMM), and then we apply a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) methodology to compare both banking business models.

Keywords: Lerner index, Islamic banks, non-performing loans, prudential regulations, z-score

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Authors: Sopit Tubtimhin, Chaliya Wamaloon, Anchalee Supattagorn

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Background and Significance: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed and leading cause of cancer death among women. This study aims to determine factors potentially predicting recurrence and long-term survival after the first recurrence in surgically treated patients between postmenopausal and younger women. Methods and Analysis: A retrospective cohort study was performed on 498 Thai women with invasive breast cancer, who had undergone mastectomy and been followed-up at Ubon Ratchathani Cancer Hospital, Thailand. We collected based on a systematic chart audit from medical records and pathology reports between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2011. The last follow-up time point for surviving patients was December 31, 2016. A Cox regression model was used to calculate hazard ratios of recurrence and death. Findings: The median age was 49 (SD ± 9.66) at the time of diagnosis, 47% was post-menopausal women ( ≥ 51years and not experienced any menstrual flow for a minimum of 12 months), and 53 % was younger women ( ˂ 51 years and have menstrual period). Median time from the diagnosis to the last follow-up or death was 10.81 [95% CI = 9.53-12.07] years in younger cases and 8.20 [95% CI = 6.57-9.82] years in postmenopausal cases. The recurrence-free survival (RFS) for younger estimates at 1, 5 and 10 years of 95.0 %, 64.0% and 58.93% respectively, appeared slightly better than the 92.7%, 58.1% and 53.1% for postmenopausal women [HRadj = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.95-1.64]. Regarding overall survival (OS) for younger at 1, 5 and 10 years were 97.7%, 72.7 % and 52.7% respectively, for postmenopausal patients, OS at 1, 5 and 10 years were 95.7%, 70.0% and 44.5 respectively, there were no significant differences in survival [HRadj = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.94 -1.64]. Multivariate analysis identified five risk factors for negatively impacting on survival were triple negative [HR= 2.76, 95% CI = 1.47-5.19], Her2-enriched [HR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.37-4.91], luminal B [HR = 2.29, 95 % CI=1.35-3.89], not free margin [HR = 1.98, 95%CI=1.00-3.96] and patients who received only adjuvant chemotherapy [HR= 3.75, 95% CI = 2.00-7.04]. Statistically significant risks of overall cancer recurrence were Her2-enriched [HR = 5.20, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80], triple negative [HR = 3.87, 95% CI = 1.98-7.59], luminal B [HR= 2.59, 95% CI = 1.48-4.54,] and patients who received only adjuvant chemotherapy [HR= 2.59, 95% CI = 1.48-5.66]. Discussion and Implications: Outcomes from this studies have shown that postmenopausal women have been associated with increased risk of recurrence and mortality. As the results, it provides useful information for planning the screening and treatment of early-stage breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: breast cancer, menopause status, recurrence-free survival, overall survival

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Authors: Awatif Boumaza, Abderraouf Hilali, Hayat Talbi, Houda Sbayou

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The methanolic extract of Zygophyllum cornutun coss, an Algerian medicinal plant, was screened to the presence of mutagenic activity and genotoxic effect using the Ames test (Salmonella/microsome) and the micronucleus assay respectively. Positive results were obtained with both tests. The Ames test showed mutagenic activity in the presence of microsomal activation, while negative result was observed without microsomal activation. In the micronucleus test, two parameters were evaluated: the frequency of the micronucleus that increased in a dose dependent way and the proliferation index that decreased according to the micronucleus frequency. Even that further studies must be carried out, the mutagenic activity and the genotoxic effect of Zygophyllum cornutum should be taken in consideration when used as therapeutic plant.

Keywords: ames test, micronucleus test, mutagenic activity, genotoxicity, Zygophyllum cornutum

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Authors: Faisal Algosair

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We examine the role of monetary policy in the presence of commodity price shocks using a Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with price and wage rigidities. The model characterizes a commodity exporter by its degree of export diversification, and explores the following monetary regimes: flexible domestic inflation targeting; flexible Consumer Price Index inflation targeting; exchange rate peg; and optimal rule. An increase in the degree of diversification is found to mitigate responses to commodity shocks. The welfare comparison suggests that a flexible exchange rate regime under the optimal rule is preferred to an exchange rate peg. However, monetary policy provides limited stabilization effects in an economy with low degree of export diversification.

Keywords: business cycle, commodity price, exchange rate, global financial cycle

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Authors: Jeong-Hyun Park, Young-Sik Park, Hyo-Teag Jung

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This paper presents static analysis deployment model for code quality on R&D Projects of SW Development. The proposed model includes the scope of R&D projects and index for static analysis of source code, operation model and execution process, environments and infrastructure system for R&D projects of SW development. There is the static analysis result of pilot project as case study based on the proposed deployment model and environment, and strategic considerations for success operation of the proposed static analysis deployment model for R&D Projects of SW Development. The proposed static analysis deployment model in this paper will be adapted and improved continuously for quality upgrade of R&D projects, and customer satisfaction of developed source codes and products.

Keywords: static analysis, code quality, coding rules, automation tool

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Authors: Onabajo Paul

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The testing and assessment of physical fitness of school-aged adolescents in Nigeria has been going on for several decades. Originally, these tests strictly focused on identifying health and physical fitness status and comparing the results of adolescents with others. There is a considerable interest in health and performance fitness of adolescents in which results attained are compared with criteria representing positive health rather than simply on score comparisons with others. Despite the fact that physical education program is being studied in secondary schools and physical activities are encouraged, it is observed that regular assessment of students’ fitness level and health status seems to be scarce or not being done in these schools. The purpose of the study was to assess the heath and performance fitness of adolescents in middle-income schools in Lagos State. A total number of 150 students were selected using the simple random sampling technique. Participants were measured on hand grip strength, sit-up, pacer 20 meter shuttle run, standing long jump, weight and height. The data collected were analyzed with descriptive statistics of means, standard deviations, and range and compared with fitness norms. It was concluded that majority 111(74.0%) of the adolescents achieved the healthy fitness zone, 33(22.0%) were very lean, and 6(4.0%) needed improvement according to the normative standard of Body Mass Index test. For muscular strength, majority 78(52.0%) were weak, 66(44.0%) were normal, and 6(4.0%) were strong according to the normative standard of hand-grip strength test. For aerobic capacity fitness, majority 93(62.0%) needed improvement and were at health risk, 36(24.0%) achieved healthy fitness zone, and 21(14.0%) needed improvement according to the normative standard of PACER test. Majority 48(32.0%) of the participants had good hip flexibility, 38(25.3%) had fair status, 27(18.0%) needed improvement, 24(16.0%) had very good hip flexibility status, and 13(8.7%) of the participants had excellent status. Majority 61(40.7%) had average muscular endurance status, 30(20.0%) had poor status, 29(18.3%) had good status, 28(18.7%) had fair muscular endurance status, and 2(1.3%) of the participants had excellent status according to the normative standard of sit-up test. Majority 52(34.7%) had low jump ability fitness, 47(31.3%) had marginal fitness, 31(20.7%) had good fitness, and 20(13.3%) had high performance fitness according to the normative standard of standing long jump test. Based on the findings, it was concluded that majority of the adolescents had better Body Mass Index status, and performed well in both hip flexibility and muscular endurance tests. Whereas majority of the adolescents performed poorly in aerobic capacity test, muscular strength and jump ability test. It was recommended that to enhance wellness, adolescents should be involved in physical activities and recreation lasting 30 minutes three times a week. Schools should engage in fitness program for students on regular basis at both senior and junior classes so as to develop good cardio-respiratory, muscular fitness and improve overall health of the students.

Keywords: adolescents, health-related fitness, performance-related fitness, physical fitness

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Authors: Sitti Rahmawati

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Payment system of cataract surgery implemented by professional attendant of doctor and nurse has been increasing, through health insurance program and this has become one of the factors that affects a lot of government in the budget establishment. This system has been implemented in purpose of quality and expenditure control, i.e., controlling health overpayment to obtain benefit (moral hazard) by the user of insurance or health service provider. The increasing health cost becomes the main issue that hampers the society to receive required health service in cash payment-system. One of the efforts that should be taken by the government in health payment is by securing health insurance through society's health insurance. The objective of the study is to learn the capability of a patient to pay cataract eye operation for the elders. Method of study sample population in this study was patients who obtain health insurance board card for the society that was started in the first of tri-semester (January-March) 2015 and claimed in Indonesian software-Case Based Group as a purposive sampling of 40 patients. Results of the study show that total unit cost analysis of surgery service unit was obtained $75 for unit cost without AFC and salary of nurse and doctor. The operation tariff that has been implemented today at Anutapura hospitals in eye department is tariff without AFC and the salary of the employee is $80. The operation tariff of the unit cost calculation with double distribution model at $65. Conclusion, the calculation result of actual unit cost that is much greater causes incentive distribution system provided to an ophthalmologist at $37 and nurse at $20 for one operation. The surgery service tariff is still low; consequently, the hospital receives low revenue and the quality of health insurance in eye operation department is relatively low. In purpose of increasing the service quality, it requires adequately high cost to equip medical equipment and increase the number of professional health attendant in serving patients in cataract eye operation at hospital.

Keywords: economic evaluation, cataract operation, health attendant, health insurance system

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Authors: Werner Grommes

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The institute of occupational safety and health works in a working group for building a normative standard for illuminated warning vests and did a lot of experiments and measurements as basic work (cooperation). Intelligent car headlamps are able to suppress conventional warning vests with retro-reflective stripes as a disturbing light. Illuminated warning vests are therefore required for occupational safety. However, they must not pose any danger to the wearer or other persons. Here, the risks of the batteries (lithium types), the maximum brightness (glare) and possible interference radiation from the electronics on the implant carrier must be taken into account. The all-around visibility, as well as the required range, play an important role here. For the study, many luminance measurements of already commercially available LEDs and electroluminescent warning vests, as well as their electromagnetic interference fields and aspects of electrical safety, were measured. The results of this study showed that LED lighting is all far too bright and causes strong glare. The integrated controls with pulse modulation and switching regulators cause electromagnetic interference fields. Rechargeable lithium batteries can explode depending on the temperature range. Electroluminescence brings even more hazards. A test method was developed for the evaluation of visibility at distances of 50, 100, and 150 m, including the interview of test persons. A measuring method was developed for the detection of glare effects at close range with the assignment of the maximum permissible luminance. The electromagnetic interference fields were tested in the time and frequency ranges. A risk and hazard analysis were prepared for the use of lithium batteries. The range of values for luminance and risk analysis for lithium batteries were discussed in the standards working group. These will be integrated into the standard. This paper gives a brief overview of the topics of illuminated warning vests, which takes into account the risks and hazards for the vest wearer or others

Keywords: illuminated warning vest, optical tests and measurements, risks, hazards, optical glare effects, LED, E-light, electric luminescent

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Authors: Bader Alhumaidi Alsubaei, Zahid H. Akash, Ali Imam Sunny

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The heat transfer coefficient can be improved passively by using a dimpled surface on the tube. The contact area where heat transfer takes place can be enlarged and turbulence will be purposefully produced inside the duct; as a consequence, higher heat transfer quality will be achieved by employing an extended inner or outer surface (dimpled surface). In order to compare the rate and quality of heat transfer between a regular-shaped pipe and a dimpled pipe, a dimpled tube with a fixed dimple radius was created. Numerical analysis of the plain and dimpled pipes was performed using ANSYS. A 23% increase in Nusselt number was seen for dimpled tubes compared to plain tubes. In comparison to plain tubes, dimpled tubes' increase in thermal performance index was found to be between 8% and 10%. An increase in pressure drop of 18% was noted.

Keywords: heat transfer, dimpled tube, CFD, ANSYS

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Authors: Reda A. Elkhyat, Mahmoud Nasr, Amel A. Tammam, Mohamed A. Ghazy

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Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are a unique group of emerging contaminants continuously introduced into the aquatic ecosystem at concentrations capable of inducing adverse effects on humans and aquatic organisms, even at trace levels ranging from ppt to ppm. Amongst the common pharmaceutical emerging pollutants detected in several aquatic environments, acetaminophen has been recognized for its high toxicity. Once released into the aquatic environment, acetaminophen could be degraded by the microbial community and adsorption/ uptake by the plants. Although many studies have investigated the hazard risks of acetaminophen pollutants on aquatic animals, the number of studies demonstrating its removal efficiency and effects on the aquatic plant still needs to be expanded. In this context, this study aims to apply the aquatic plant-based phytoremediation system to eliminate this emerging contaminant from domestic wastewater. The phytoremediation experiment was performed in a hydroponic system containing Eichhornia crassipes and operated under the natural environment at 25°C to 30°C. This system was subjected to synthetic domestic wastewater with the maximum initial chemical oxygen demand (COD) of 390 mg/L and three different acetaminophen concentrations of 25, 50, and 200 mg/L. After 17 d of operation, the phytoremediation system achieved removal efficiencies of about 100% and 85.6±4.2% for acetaminophen and COD, respectively.Moreover, the Eichhornia crassipes could withstand the toxicity associated with increasing the acetaminophen concentrations from 25 to 200 mg/L. This high treatment performance could be assigned to the well-adaptation of the water hyacinth to the phytoremediation factors. Moreover, it has been proposed that this phytoremediation system could be largely supported by phytodegradation and plant uptaking mechanisms; however, detecting the generated intermediates, metabolites, and degradation products are still under investigation. Applying this free-floating plant in wastewater treatment and reducing emerging contaminants would meet the targets of SDGs 3, 6, and. 14. The cost-benefit analysis was performed for the phytoremediation system. The phytoremediation system is financially viable as the net profit was 2921 US $/ y with a payback period of nine years.

Keywords: domestic wastewater, emerging pollutants, hydrophyte Eichhornia crassipes, paracetamol removal efficiency, sustainable development goals (SDGs)

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Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Shinji Kawakura, Ryosuke Shibasaki

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We have been grouping and developing various kinds of practical, promising sensing applied systems concerning agricultural advancement and technical tradition (guidance). These include advanced devices to secure real-time data related to worker motion, and we analyze by methods of various advanced statistics and human dynamics (e.g. primary component analysis, Ward system based cluster analysis, and mapping). What is more, we have been considering worker daily health and safety issues. Targeted fields are mainly common farms, meadows, and gardens. After then, we observed and discussed time-line style, changing data. And, we made some suggestions. The entire plan makes it possible to improve both the aforementioned applied systems and farms.

Keywords: advanced statistical analysis, wearable sensing system, tradition of skill, supporting for workers, detecting crisis

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie

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This study optimized the performance of plastic extrusion process of drip irrigation pipes using fuzzy goal programming. Two main responses were of main interest; roll thickness and hardness. Four main process factors were studied. The L₁₈ array was then used for experimental design. The individual-moving range control charts were used to assess the stability of the process, while the process capability index was used to assess process performance. Confirmation experiments were conducted at the obtained combination of optimal factor setting by fuzzy goal programming. The results revealed that process capability was improved significantly from -1.129 to 0.8148 for roll thickness and from 0.0965 to 0.714 and hardness. Such improvement results in considerable savings in production and quality costs.

Keywords: fuzzy goal programming, extrusion process, process capability, irrigation plastic pipes

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Authors: Andrea Szabo Nagy, Zsofia Csanadi

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the concentration levels of common inorganic gases, benzene and particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅) in ambient air of Győr (Hungary) based on the latest published monitoring data. The concentrations of PM10-bound heavy metals (Pb, Cd, As and Ni) and some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were also assessed. The levels of pollutants were compared with the Hungarian and EU limit or target values defined for health protection and the WHO air quality guidelines (AQGs) or estimated reference levels. Based on the Hungarian or the EU air quality standards and using the Hungarian Air Quality Index it was found that mainly an excellent (SO₂, CO, C₆H₆, heavy metals) or good (NO₂, O₃, PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP)) air quality was observed in the urban area of Győr for the year 2016. The annual mean pollutant concentrations (excluding BaP) were not exceeded or just reached the WHO AQGs or reference levels.

Keywords: aerosols, air pollutant, air quality, health protection

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Authors: A. Boateng, La Gil-Alana, M. Lesaoana; Hj. Siweya, A. Belete

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This study examines long memory or long-range dependence in the CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa using Whittle methods and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Standard I(0)/I(1) methods such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests were also employed. Our findings indicate that long memory exists in the CPI inflation rates of both countries. After processing fractional differencing and determining the short memory components, the models were specified as ARFIMA (4,0.35,2) and ARFIMA (3,0.49,3) respectively for Ghana and South Africa. Consequently, the CPI inflation rates of both countries are fractionally integrated and mean reverting. The implication of this result will assist in policy formulation and identification of inflationary pressures in an economy.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates, Whittle method, long memory, ARFIMA model

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar

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The rate of penetration is (RoP) one of the vital factors in the cost and time of tunnel boring projects; therefore, predicting it can lead to a substantial increase in the efficiency of the project. RoP is heavily dependent geological properties of the project site and TBM properties. In this study, 151-point data from Queen’s water tunnel is collected, which includes unconfined compression strength, peak slope index, angle with weak planes, and distance between planes of weaknesses. Since the size of the data is small, it was observed that it is imbalanced. To solve that problem synthetic minority oversampling technique is utilized. The model based on the model tree is proposed, where each leaf consists of a support vector machine model. Proposed model performance is then compared to existing empirical equations in the literature.

Keywords: Model tree, SMOTE, rate of penetration, TBM(tunnel boring machine), SVM

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: E. Botchway, C. Godfrey, V. Anderson, C. Catroppa

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Introduction: Sleep disturbances are common after childhood traumatic brain injury (TBI). This systematic review aimed to assess the prevalence, types, and predictors of sleep disturbances in childhood TBI. Methods: Medline, Pubmed, PsychInfo, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched. Out of the 547 articles assessed, 15 met selection criteria for this review. Results: Sleep disturbances were common in children and adolescents with TBI, irrespective of injury severity. Excessive daytime sleepiness and insomnia were the most common sleep disturbances reported. Sleep disturbance was predicted by sex, injury severity, pre-existing sleep disturbances, younger age, pain, and high body mass index. Conclusions: Sleep disturbances are highly prevalent in childhood TBI, regardless of the injury severity. Routine assessment of sleep in survivors of childhood TBI is recommended.

Keywords: traumatic brain injury, sleep diatiurbances, childhood, systematic review

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Authors: Ayantika Biswas

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Hypertension still remains one of the most important preventable contributors to adult mortality and morbidity and a major public health challenge worldwide. Studying regional and rural-urban differences in prevalence and assessment of the contributions of different indicators is essential in determining the drivers of this condition. The 2015-16 National Family Health Survey data has been used for the study. Bivariate analysis, multinomial regression analysis, concentration indices and decomposition of concentration indices assessing contribution of factors has been undertaken in the present study. An overall concentration index of 0.003 has been found for hypertensive population, which shows its concentration among the richer wealth quintiles. The contribution of factors like age 45 to 49 years, years of schooling between 5 to 9 years are factors that are important contributors to inequality in hypertension occurrence. Studies should be conducted to find approaches to prevent or delay the onset of the condition.

Keywords: hypertension, decomposition, inequalities, India

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Authors: Saber A. El-Shafai, Waleed M. Zahid

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An up-flow submerged biofilm reactor packed with sponge was investigated for sewage treatment. The reactor was operated two cycles as single aerobic (1-1 at 3.5 L/L.d HLR and 1-2 at 3.8 L/L.day HLR) and four cycles as single anaerobic/aerobic reactor; 2-1 and 2-2 at low HLR (3.7 and 3.5 L/L.day) and 2-3 and 2-4 at high HLR (5.1 and 5.4 L/L.day). During the aerobic cycles, 50% effluent recycling significantly reduces the system performance except for phosphorous. In case of the anaerobic/aerobic reactor, the effluent recycling, significantly improves system performance at low HLR while at high HLR only phosphorous removal was improved. Excess sludge production was limited to 0.133 g TSS/g COD with better sludge volume index (SVI) in case of anaerobic/aerobic cycles; (54.7 versus 58.5 ml/g).

Keywords: aerobic, anaerobic/aerobic, up-flow, submerged biofilm, sponge

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Authors: Saeed Delara, Kendra MacKay

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Varying methodologies are considered for pile design for both Russian and Western approaches. Although both approaches rely on toe and side frictional resistances, different calculation methods are proposed to estimate pile capacity. The Western approach relies on compactness (internal friction angle) of soil for cohesionless soils and undrained shear strength for cohesive soils. The Russian approach relies on grain size for cohesionless soils and liquidity index for cohesive soils. Though most recommended methods in the Western approaches are relatively simple methods to predict pile settlement, the Russian approach provides a detailed method to estimate single pile and pile group settlement. Details to calculate pile axial capacity and settlement using the Russian and Western approaches are discussed and compared against field test results.

Keywords: pile capacity, pile settlement, Russian approach, western approach

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Authors: Mohamed R. Al-Mulla, Bader Al-Bader, Firouz K. Ghaaedi, Francisco Sepulveda

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Surface electromyography (sEMG) is utilised in numerous studies on muscle activity. In the beginning, single electrodes were utilised; however, the newest approach is to use an array of electrodes or a grid of electrodes to improve the accuracy of the recorded reading. This research focuses on electrode placement on the biceps brachii, using an array of electrodes placed longitudinal and diagonally on the muscle belly. Trials were conducted on four healthy males, with sEMG signal acquisition from fatiguing isometric contractions. The signal was analysed using the power spectrum density. The separation between the two classes of fatigue (non-fatigue and fatigue) was calculated using the Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI). Results show that higher separability between the fatigue content of the sEMG signal when placed longitudinally, in the same direction as the muscle fibers.

Keywords: array electrodes, biceps brachii, electrode placement, EMG, isometric contractions, muscle fatigue

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Authors: Ene Rosemary Ndidiamaka, Nwangwu Florence Chinyere

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The physiochemical properties of the melon seed oil was studied to determine its potentials as viable feed stock for biodisel production. The melon seed was extracted by solvent extraction using n-hexane as the extracting solvent. In this research, methanol was the alcohol used in the production of biodiesel, although alcohols like ethanol, propanol may also be used. Sodium hydroxide was employed for the catalysis. The melon seed oil was characterized for specific gravity, pH, ash content, iodine value, acid value, saponification value, peroxide value, free fatty acid value, flash point, viscosity, and refractive index using standard methods. The melon seed oil had very high oil content. Specific gravity and flash point of the oil is satisfactory. However, moisture content of the oil exceeded the stipulated ASRTM standard for biodiesel production. The overall results indicates that the melon seed oil is suitable for single-stage transesterification process to biodiesel production.

Keywords: biodiesel, catalyst, melon seed, transesterification

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Jia-Shu Li

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To design a product with the given product requirement and design objective, there can be alternative ways to propose the detailed design specifications of the product. In the design modeling stage, alternative design cases with detailed specifications can be modeled to fulfill the product requirement and design objective. Therefore, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to perform an evaluation of the alternative design cases for deciding the final design. The purpose of this research is to develop a product evaluation model for evaluating the alternative design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain. The criteria in the functional design group include primary function, expansion function, improved function, and new function. The criteria in the Kansei group include geometric shape, dimension, surface finish, and layout. The criteria in the design for supply chain group include material, manufacturing process, assembly, and supply chain operation. From the point of view of value and cost, the criteria in the functional design group and Kansei design group represent the design value of the product. The criteria in the design for supply chain group represent the supply chain and manufacturing cost of the product. It is required to evaluate the design value and the supply chain cost to determine the final design. For the purpose of evaluating the criteria in the three criteria groups, a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is presented to evaluate a weighted index by calculating the total relational values among the three groups. A method using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to compare and rank the design alternative cases according to the weighted index using the total relational values of the criteria. The final decision of a design case can be determined by using the ordered ranking. For example, the design case with the top ranking can be selected as the final design case. Based on the criteria in the evaluation, the design objective can be achieved with a combined and weighted effect of the design value and manufacturing cost. An example product is demonstrated and illustrated in the presentation. It shows that the design evaluation model is useful for integrated evaluation of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain to determine the best design case and achieve the design objective.

Keywords: design for supply chain, design evaluation, functional design, Kansei design, fuzzy analytic network process, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution

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Authors: Ali A. Aldosari

Abstract:

Change detection of Earth surface features is extremely important for better understanding of our environment in order to promote better decision making. Al-Jawf is remarkable for its abundant agricultural water where there is fertile agricultural land due largely to underground water. As result, this region has large areas of cultivation of dates, olives and fruits trees as well as other agricultural products such as Alfa Alfa and wheat. However this agricultural area was declined due to the reduction of government supports in the last decade. This reduction was not officially recorded or measured in this region at large scale or governorate level. Remote sensing data are primary sources extensively used for change detection in agriculture applications. This study is applied the technology of GIS and used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which can be used to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal changes in the agriculture areas in the Aljouf region.

Keywords: spatial analysis, geographical information system, change detection

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Authors: Amirhossein Dodankeh, Hadi Dabiryan, Saeed Hamze

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Using fabrics to reinforce composites considerably leads to improved mechanical properties, including resistance to the impact load and the energy absorption of composites. Warp-knitted spacer fabrics (WKSF) are fabrics consisting of two layers of warp-knitted fabric connected by pile yarns. These connections create a space between the layers filled by pile yarns and give the fabric a three-dimensional shape. Today because of the unique properties of spacer fabrics, they are widely used in the transportation, construction, and sports industries. Polyurethane (PU) foams are commonly used as energy absorbers, but WKSF has much better properties in moisture transfer, compressive properties, and lower heat resistance than PU foam. It seems that the use of warp-knitted spacer fabric reinforced PU foam (WKSFRF) can lead to the production and use of composite, which has better properties in terms of energy absorption from the foam, its mold formation is enhanced, and its mechanical properties have been improved. In this paper, the energy absorption efficiency (EAE) of WKSFRF under low-velocity impact is investigated experimentally. The contribution of the effect of each of the structural parameters of the WKSF on the absorption of impact energy has also been investigated. For this purpose, WKSF with different structures such as two different thicknesses, small and large mesh sizes, and position of the meshes facing each other and not facing each other were produced. Then 6 types of composite samples with different structural parameters were fabricated. The physical properties of samples like weight per unit area and fiber volume fraction of composite were measured for 3 samples of any type of composites. Low-velocity impact with an initial energy of 5 J was carried out on 3 samples of any type of composite. The output of the low-velocity impact test is acceleration-time (A-T) graph with a lot deviation point, in order to achieve the appropriate results, these points were removed using the FILTFILT function of MATLAB R2018a. Using Newtonian laws of physics force-displacement (F-D) graph was drawn from an A-T graph. We know that the amount of energy absorbed is equal to the area under the F-D curve. Determination shows the maximum energy absorption is 2.858 J which is related to the samples reinforced with fabric with large mesh, high thickness, and not facing of the meshes relative to each other. An index called energy absorption efficiency was defined, which means absorption energy of any kind of our composite divided by its fiber volume fraction. With using this index, the best EAE between the samples is 21.6 that occurs in the sample with large mesh, high thickness, and meshes facing each other. Also, the EAE of this sample is 15.6% better than the average EAE of other composite samples. Generally, the energy absorption on average has been increased 21.2% by increasing the thickness, 9.5% by increasing the size of the meshes from small to big, and 47.3% by changing the position of the meshes from facing to non-facing.

Keywords: composites, energy absorption efficiency, foam, geometrical parameters, low-velocity impact, warp-knitted spacer fabric

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