Search results for: impact models

Authors: Hameed Olalekan Bolaji

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The digital natives are driving the trends of literacy in the use of electronic devices for learning purposes. This has reconfigured the context of learning in the exploration of knowledge in a social learning environment. This study explores the impact of Ubiquitous Collaborative Mobile Learning (UCML) instructional design model in a quantitative designed-based research approach. The UCML model was a synergetic blend of four models that are relevant to the design of instructional content for a social learning environment. The UCML model serves as the treatment and instructions were transmitted via mobile device based on the principle of ‘bring your own device’ (BYOD) to promote social learning. Three research questions and two hypotheses were raised to guide the conduct of this study. A researcher-designed questionnaire was used to collate data and the it was subjected to reliability of Cronbach Alpha which yielded 0.91. Descriptive statistics of mean and standard deviation were used to answer research questions while inferential statistics of independent sample t-test was used to analyze the hypotheses. The findings reveal that the UCML model was adequately evolved and it promotes social learning its design principles through the use of mobile devices.

Keywords: collaboration, mobile device, social learning, ubiquitous

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Authors: Mahmood Heshmati, Farhang Daneshmand

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Material scientists and engineers have introduced novel materials with complex geometries due to the recent technological advances and promotion of manufacturing methods. Among them, lattice structures with graded architectures denoted by functionally graded porous materials (FGPMs) have been developed to optimize the structural response. FGPMs are achieved by tailoring the size and density of the internal pores in one or more directions that lead to the desired mechanical properties and structural responses. Also, FGPMs provide more flexible transition and the possibility of designing and fabricating structural elements with complex and variable properties. In this paper, wave propagation in lattice structures with functionally graded (FG) porosity is investigated in order to examine the ability of shock absorbing effect. The behavior of FG porous beams with different porosity distributions under impact load and the effects of porosity distribution and porosity content on the wave speed are studied. Important conclusions are made, along with a discussion of the future scope of studies on FGPMs structures.

Keywords: functionally graded, porous materials, wave propagation, impact load, finite element

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Authors: Faiqa Jalal

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The purpose of the following research paper is to discuss the differentiating meanings of culture and how popular culture has maintained a great impact on intercultural and international behavior. The following discussion leads to the notion of communicating cultural impact on behavior through advertising and sub-cultural theory in advertising. Although towards the end of the research, the complexities that develop through the above discussion, lead to the solution that ‘advertising gives meaning to the otherwise meaningless and identical objects through linking them to our basic needs’. In today’s fast paced digital world, it is difficult to define culture, literally, since its meaning tends to shift through series of different perceptions such as ‘how’ and ‘why’ it should be used. This notion can be taken towards another notion of popular culture. It is dependent on ‘attitudes, ideas, images, perspectives and other phenomena within the mainstream of a given culture’. Since popular culture is influenced by mass media, it has a way of influencing an individual’s attitude towards certain topics. For example, tattoos are a form of human decorations, that have historic significance, and a huge spectrum of meanings. Advertising is one aspect of marketing that has evolved from the time when it was ‘production oriented’, up till the time it started using different mediums to make its impact more effective. However, this impact has confused us between our needs and desires. The focus in this paper is ‘we consume to acquire a sense of social identity and status, not just for the sake of consumption’. Every culture owns different expressions, which are then used by advertisers to create its impact on the behavior of people sub-culturally and globally, as culture grows through social interaction. Advertisers furthermore play a smart role in highlighting quality of life ranging from ‘survival to well-being’. Hence, this research paper concludes by highlighting that culture is considered as a ‘basic root’ of any community that also provides solution to certain problems; however, advertisers play their part in manipulating society’s literacy and beliefs by rationalizing how relevant certain products/brands are to their beliefs.

Keywords: mass media, popular culture, production oriented, sub-culture

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Authors: Meera Tandan, Mohan Timilsina, Martin Cormican, Akke Vellinga

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Background: In general practice, many infections are treated empirically without microbiological confirmation. Understanding susceptibility of antimicrobials during empirical prescribing can be helpful to reduce inappropriate prescribing. This study aims to apply a prediction model using a decision tree approach to predict the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of urinary tract infections (UTI) based on non-clinical features of patients over 65 years. Decision tree models are a novel idea to predict the outcome of AMR at an initial stage. Method: Data was extracted from the database of the microbiological laboratory of the University Hospitals Galway on all antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) of urine specimens from patients over the age of 65 from January 2011 to December 2014. The primary endpoint was resistance to common antimicrobials (Nitrofurantoin, trimethoprim, ciprofloxacin, co-amoxiclav and amoxicillin) used to treat UTI. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated with the outcome ‘resistant infection’. The importance of each predictor (the number of previous samples, age, gender, location (nursing home, hospital, community) and causative agent) on antimicrobial resistance was estimated. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive (NPV) and positive predictive (PPV) values were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Seventy-five percent (75%) of the data were used as a training set and validation of the model was performed with the remaining 25% of the dataset. Results: A total of 9805 UTI patients over 65 years had their urine sample submitted for AST at least once over the four years. E.coli, Klebsiella, Proteus species were the most commonly identified pathogens among the UTI patients without catheter whereas Sertia, Staphylococcus aureus; Enterobacter was common with the catheter. The validated CART model shows slight differences in the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV in between the models with and without the causative organisms. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for the model with non-clinical predictors was between 74% and 88% depending on the antimicrobial. Conclusion: The CART models developed using non-clinical predictors have good performance when predicting antimicrobial resistance. These models predict which antimicrobial may be the most appropriate based on non-clinical factors. Other CART models, prospective data collection and validation and an increasing number of non-clinical factors will improve model performance. The presented model provides an alternative approach to decision making on antimicrobial prescribing for UTIs in older patients.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, urinary tract infection, prediction, decision tree

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Authors: Łukasz Grabowski, Michał Gęca, Mirosław Wendeker

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This paper presents the simulation results of a new opposed piston diesel engine to power a light aircraft. Created in the AVL Boost, the model covers the entire charge passage, from the inlet up to the outlet. The model shows fuel injection into cylinders and combustion in cylinders. The calculation uses the module for two-stroke engines. The model was created using sub-models available in this software that structure the model. Each of the sub-models is complemented with parameters in line with the design premise. Since engine weight resulting from geometric dimensions is fundamental in aircraft engines, two configurations of stroke were studied. For each of the values, there were calculated selected operating conditions defined by crankshaft speed. The required power was achieved by changing air fuel ratio (AFR). There was also studied brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC). For stroke S1, the BSFC was lowest at all of the three operating points. This difference is approximately 1-2%, which means higher overall engine efficiency but the amount of fuel injected into cylinders is larger by several mg for S1. The cylinder maximum pressure is lower for S2 due to the fact that compressor gear driving remained the same and boost pressure was identical in the both cases. Calculations for various values of boost pressure were the next stage of the study. In each of the calculation case, the amount of fuel was changed to achieve the required engine power. In the former case, the intake system dimensions were modified, i.e. the duct connecting the compressor and the air cooler, so its diameter D = 40 mm was equal to the diameter of the compressor outlet duct. The impact of duct length was also examined to be able to reduce the flow pulsation during the operating cycle. For the so selected geometry of the intake system, there were calculations for various values of boost pressure. The boost pressure was changed by modifying the gear driving the compressor. To reach the required level of cruising power N = 68 kW. Due to the mechanical power consumed by the compressor, high pressure ratio results in a worsened overall engine efficiency. The figure on the change in BSFC from 210 g/kWh to nearly 270 g/kWh shows this correlation and the overall engine efficiency is reduced by about 8%. Acknowledgement: This work has been realized in the cooperation with The Construction Office of WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A." and is part of Grant Agreement No. POIR.01.02.00-00-0002/15 financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development.

Keywords: aircraft, diesel, engine, simulation

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Authors: Michael Leo L. Dela Cruz, Khryslyn G. Arano, Eden May B. Dela Pena, Leslie Joy Diaz

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Arsenic adsorbents were continuously being researched to ease the detrimental impact of arsenic to human health. A comparative study on the adsorption mechanism of arsenic on iron modified nanoclays was undertaken. Iron intercalated montmorillonite (Fe-MMT) and montmorillonite supported zero-valent iron (ZVI-MMT) were the adsorbents investigated in this study. Fe-MMT was produced through ion-exchange by replacing the sodium intercalated ions in montmorillonite with iron (III) ions. The iron (III) in Fe-MMT was later reduced to zero valent iron producing ZVI-MMT. Adsorption study was performed by batch technique. Obtained data were fitted to intra-particle diffusion, pseudo-first order, and pseudo-second-order models and the Elovich equation to determine the kinetics of adsorption. The adsorption of arsenic on Fe-MMT followed the intra-particle diffusion model with intra-particle rate constant of 0.27 mg/g-min0.5. Arsenic was found to be chemically bound on ZVI-MMT as suggested by the pseudo-second order and Elovich equation. The derived pseudo-second order rate constant was 0.0027 g/mg-min with initial adsorption rate computed from the Elovich equation was 113 mg/g-min.

Keywords: adsorption mechanism, arsenic, montmorillonite, zero valent iron

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Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

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Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA

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Authors: Paras Ram, Vikas Kumar

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The transmission of Malaria with seasonal were studied through the use of mathematical models. The data from the annual number of Malaria cases reported to the Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand during the period 1997-2011 were analyzed. The transmission of Malaria with seasonal was studied by formulating a mathematical model which had been modified to describe different situations encountered in the transmission of Malaria. In our model, the population was separated into two groups: the human and vector groups, and then constructed a system of nonlinear differential equations. Each human group was divided into susceptible, infectious in hot season, infectious in rainy season, infectious in cool season and recovered classes. The vector population was separated into two classes only: susceptible and infectious vectors. The analysis of the models was given by the standard dynamical modeling.

Keywords: ferrofluid, magnetic field, porous medium, rotating disk, Neuringer-Rosensweig Model

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Authors: Julia Ive, Lucia Specia

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Understanding and detecting toxicity is an important problem to support safer human interactions online. Our work focuses on the important problem of contextual toxicity detection, where automated classifiers are tasked with determining whether a short textual segment (usually a sentence) is toxic within its conversational context. We use “toxicity” as an umbrella term to denote a number of variants commonly named in the literature, including hate, abuse, offence, among others. Detecting toxicity in context is a non-trivial problem and has been addressed by very few previous studies. These previous studies have analysed the influence of conversational context in human perception of toxicity in controlled experiments and concluded that humans rarely change their judgements in the presence of context. They have also evaluated contextual detection models based on state-of-the-art Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. Counterintuitively, they reached the general conclusion that computational models tend to suffer performance degradation in the presence of context. We challenge these empirical observations by devising better contextual predictive models that also rely on NLP data augmentation techniques to create larger and better data. In our study, we start by further analysing the human perception of toxicity in conversational data (i.e., tweets), in the absence versus presence of context, in this case, previous tweets in the same conversational thread. We observed that the conclusions of previous work on human perception are mainly due to data issues: The contextual data available does not provide sufficient evidence that context is indeed important (even for humans). The data problem is common in current toxicity datasets: cases labelled as toxic are either obviously toxic (i.e., overt toxicity with swear, racist, etc. words), and thus context does is not needed for a decision, or are ambiguous, vague or unclear even in the presence of context; in addition, the data contains labeling inconsistencies. To address this problem, we propose to automatically generate contextual samples where toxicity is not obvious (i.e., covert cases) without context or where different contexts can lead to different toxicity judgements for the same tweet. We generate toxic and non-toxic utterances conditioned on the context or on target tweets using a range of techniques for controlled text generation(e.g., Generative Adversarial Networks and steering techniques). On the contextual detection models, we posit that their poor performance is due to limitations on both of the data they are trained on (same problems stated above) and the architectures they use, which are not able to leverage context in effective ways. To improve on that, we propose text classification architectures that take the hierarchy of conversational utterances into account. In experiments benchmarking ours against previous models on existing and automatically generated data, we show that both data and architectural choices are very important. Our model achieves substantial performance improvements as compared to the baselines that are non-contextual or contextual but agnostic of the conversation structure.

Keywords: contextual toxicity detection, data augmentation, hierarchical text classification models, natural language processing

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Authors: D. Romero Espitia

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Research on peacebuilding has taken a critical turn into examining the neoliberal and hegemonic conception of peace operations. Alternative peacebuilding models have been analyzed, but the scholarly discussion fails to bring them together or form connections between them. The objective of this paper is to rethink peacebuilding by extracting the positive aspects of the various peacebuilding models, connecting them with the local context, and therefore promote emancipation in contemporary peacebuilding efforts. Moreover, local ownership has been widely labelled as one, if not the core principle necessary for a successful peacebuilding project. Yet, definitions of what constitutes the 'local' remain debated. Through a qualitative review of literature, this paper unpacks the contemporary conception of peacebuilding in nexus with 'local ownership' as manifested through civil society. Using Colombia as a case study, this paper argues that a new peacebuilding framework, one that reconsiders the terms of engagement between international and national actors, is needed in order to foster effective peacebuilding efforts in contested transitional states.

Keywords: civil society, Colombia, emancipation, peacebuilding

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Authors: Moses Aron, Elias Mwakilama, Jimmy Namangale

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Spending more time on long queues for a basic service remains a common challenge to most developing countries, including Malawi. For health sector in particular, Out-Patient Department (OPD) experiences long queues. This puts the lives of patients at risk. However, using queuing analysis to under the nature of the problems and efficiency of service systems, such problems can be abated. Based on a kind of service, literature proposes different possible queuing models. However, unlike using generalized assumed models proposed by literature, use of real time case study data can help in deeper understanding the particular problem model and how such a model can vary from one day to the other and also from each case to another. As such, this study uses data obtained from one urban HC for BP, Pediatric and General OPD cases to investigate an average queuing time for patients within the system. It seeks to highlight the proper queuing model by investigating the kind of distributions functions over patient’s arrival time, inter-arrival time, waiting time and service time. Comparable with the standard set values by WHO, the study found that patients at this HC spend more waiting times than service times. On model investigation, different days presented different models ranging from an assumed M/M/1, M/M/2 to M/Er/2. As such, through sensitivity analysis, in general, a commonly assumed M/M/1 model failed to fit the data but rather an M/Er/2 demonstrated to fit well. An M/Er/3 model seemed to be good in terms of measuring resource utilization, proposing a need to increase medical personnel at this HC. However, an M/Er/4 showed to cause more idleness of human resources.

Keywords: health care, out-patient department, queuing model, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Saurav S. Rath, Birendra K. David

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Generic pharmaceutical industry has to operate in strict timelines of product development and scale-up from lab to plant. Hence, detailed product & process understanding and implementation of appropriate mechanistic modelling and Quality-by-design (QbD) approaches are imperative in the product life cycle. This work provides example cases of such efforts in topical dosage products. Topical products are typically in the form of emulsions, gels, thick suspensions or even simple solutions. The efficacy of such products is determined by characteristics like rheology and morphology. Defining, and scaling up the right manufacturing process with a given set of ingredients, to achieve the right product characteristics presents as a challenge to the process engineer. For example, the non-Newtonian rheology varies not only with CPPs and CMAs but also is an implicit function of globule size (CQA). Hence, this calls for various mechanistic models, to help predict the product behaviour. This paper focusses on such models obtained from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with population balance modelling (PBM) and constitutive models (like shear, energy density). In a special case of the use of high shear homogenisers (HSHs) for the manufacture of thick emulsions/gels, this work presents some findings on (i) scale-up algorithm for HSH using shear strain, a novel scale-up parameter for estimating mixing parameters, (ii) non-linear relationship between viscosity and shear imparted into the system, (iii) effect of hold time on rheology of product. Specific examples of how this approach enabled scale-up across 1L, 10L, 200L, 500L and 1000L scales will be discussed.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, morphology, quality-by-design, rheology

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Authors: H. Shola Adeosun, D. Adeoye Odedeji, F. Ajoke Adebiyi

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This study examines the impact of media on the electoral process in Nigeria and the roles played by the media in the reform process. Survey research method was adopted as research methodology, and this enables the researcher to use questionnaire, and oral interview to elicit primary data from the respondents was interpreted, analysed and interpreted with statistical tools such as tables, figures, and percentages. The hypothesis formulated were tested with chi-square. The findings revealed that there is significant relationship between the media and electoral reform process in the 2011 and 2015 general elections in Nigeria. The study recommends that electoral committee should implement virile electoral system with the peaceful voting environment. The media should intensify efforts to expose violation of electoral laws; media should play an advocacy role for dialogue and debate on the reform recommendations. The study recommends that media should unite the nation through their reports on peace, national security, national integration and ethnoreligious tolerance and that adequate training should be given to media practitioners on how to report issues relating to elections.

Keywords: evaluation, impact, media, electoral reform process

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Authors: Filomena Lopes, Sandra Fernandes

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Active learning strategies are at the center of any change process aimed to improve the development of student skills. This paper aims to analyse the impact of teaching strategies, including problem-based learning (PBL), in the curricular unit of information system for management, based on students’ perceptions of how they contribute to develop the desired learning outcomes of the curricular unit. This course is part of the 1st semester and 3rd year of the graduate degree program in management at a private higher education institution in Portugal. The methodology included an online questionnaire to students (n=40). Findings from students reveal a positive impact of the teaching strategies used. In general, 35% considered that the strategies implemented in the course contributed to the development of courses’ learning objectives. Students considered PBL as the learning strategy that better contributed to enhance the courses’ learning outcomes. This conclusion brings forward the need for further reflection and discussion on the impact of student feedback on teaching and learning processes.

Keywords: higher education, active learning strategies, skills development, student assessment

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Authors: Puneet Katyal, Punit Kumar

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A great deal of efforts has been done in the field of thermal effects in electrohydrodynamic lubrication (TEHL) during the last five decades. The focus was primarily on the development of an efficient numerical scheme to deal with the computational challenges involved in the solution of TEHL model; however, some important aspects related to the accurate description of lubricant properties such as viscosity, rheology and thermal conductivity in EHL point contact analysis remain largely neglected. A few studies available in this regard are based upon highly complex mathematical models difficult to formulate and execute. Using a simplified thermal EHL model for point contacts, this work sheds some light on the importance of accurate characterization of the lubricant properties and demonstrates that the computed TEHL characteristics are highly sensitive to lubricant properties. It also emphasizes the use of appropriate mathematical models with experimentally determined parameters to account for correct lubricant behaviour.

Keywords: TEHL, shear thinning, rheology, conductivity

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Authors: Seyed Hamed Hashemi Sohi, Gerald Jo Denoga

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Machining or metal cutting is one of the most widely used production processes in industry. The quality of the process and the resulting machined product depends on parameters like tool geometry, material, and cutting conditions. However, the relationships of these parameters to the cutting process are often based mostly on empirical knowledge. In this study, computer modeling and simulation using LS-DYNA software and a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) methodology, was performed on the orthogonal metal cutting process to analyze three-dimensional deformation of AISI 1045 medium carbon steel during machining. The simulation was performed using the following constitutive models: the Power Law model, the Johnson-Cook model, and the Zerilli-Armstrong models (Z-A). The outcomes were compared against the simulated results obtained by Cenk Kiliçaslan using the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the empirical results of Jaspers and Filice. The analysis shows that the SPH method combined with the Zerilli-Armstrong constitutive model is a viable alternative to simulating the metal cutting process. The tangential force was overestimated by 7%, and the normal force was underestimated by 16% when compared with empirical values. The simulation values for flow stress versus strain at various temperatures were also validated against empirical values. The SPH method using the Z-A model has also proven to be robust against issues of time-scaling. Experimental work was also done to investigate the effects of friction, rake angle and tool tip radius on the simulation.

Keywords: metal cutting, smoothed particle hydrodynamics, constitutive models, experimental, cutting forces analyses

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Xiaocong Liu, Huazhen Wang, Ting He, Xiaozheng Li, Weihan Zhang, Jian Chen

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The utilization of electronic medical record (EMR) data to establish the disease diagnosis model has become an important research content of biomedical informatics. Deep learning can automatically extract features from the massive data, which brings about breakthroughs in the study of EMR data. The challenge is that deep learning lacks semantic knowledge, which leads to impracticability in medical science. This research proposes a method of incorporating lexical-semantic knowledge from abundant entities into a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for pediatric disease diagnosis. Firstly, medical terms are vectorized into Lexical Semantic Vectors (LSV), which are concatenated with the embedded word vectors of word2vec to enrich the feature representation. Secondly, the semantic distribution of medical terms serves as Semantic Decision Guide (SDG) for the optimization of deep learning models. The study evaluate the performance of LSV-SDG-CNN model on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. Additionally, CNN, LSV-CNN, and SDG-CNN are designed as baseline models for comparison. The experimental results show that LSV-SDG-CNN model outperforms baseline models on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. The best configuration of the model yielded an F1 score of 86.20%. The results clearly demonstrate that CNN has been effectively guided and optimized by lexical-semantic knowledge, and LSV-SDG-CNN model improves the disease classification accuracy with a clear margin.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, electronic medical record, feature representation, lexical semantics, semantic decision

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Authors: Gordon Newlove Asamoah

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This study’s objective is to determine the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on Ghana using computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. The trade data for the simulation was drawn from the standard GTAP database version 10. The study estimated the Ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) for the Ghanaian sectors which were used for the analysis. Simulations were performed to remove import tariffs and export taxes for 90% of the tariff lines as well as 50% of the NTMs for all the AfCFTA participating countries. The NTMs' reduction was simulated using these two mechanisms: iceberg costs, also known as import augmenting technological change (AMS), and exporter costs (AXS). The study finds that removing the tariffs and NTMs in the AfCFTA regions has a positive impact on Ghana’s GDP, export and import volumes, terms of trade and welfare as measured by the equivalent variations. However, Ghana recorded a deficit of US$4766.69 million as a trade balance due to its high importation bills. This is not by chance, as Ghana is an importer of high-value-added goods but an exporter of basic agricultural raw materials with low export earnings. The study also finds much larger positive impacts for the AfCFTA regions for both importers and exporters when the NTMs that work as iceberg costs and export costs are reduced. It further finds that by reducing the export cost that increases the cost of intermediate inputs, trade among the AfCFTA regions (intra-AfCFTA trade) is enhanced.

Keywords: impact, AfCFTA, NTMs, Ghana, CGE

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Olalekan Bamidele Aruleba

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This research assessed the impact of manpower training and development in the construction industry. The aim is to determine the effect of training and development on employees for effective organizational growth in the construction industry to identify the training method for each category of employee in the construction industry, challenges to training and development of workers in the construction industry and impact of manpower training and development on employees and employers. Data for the study were obtained through a well-structured questionnaire administered to building professionals in Nigeria construction firm. Eighty (80) questionnaires were distributed among building professionals in three selected local governments within Ondo State and sixty-four (64) were returned. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and ranking. Findings of the study revealed that in house training and in-service training methods were preferred by most construction industry. It concluded that the attitude of top management and lack of fund was seen as the significant challenges militating against training of employees. The study recommended that manpower training and development must be sustained by all stakeholders in the industry in order to improve workers' productivity; the organization should adopt the right method in training each category of employees and carry out the need assessment for training to avoid training wrong employees.

Keywords: construction, development, manpower, training

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

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As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: Won Il Jung, Gene Lee, Luis Rabelo

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Since many weapon systems are getting more complex and diverse, various problems occur in terms of the acquisition cost, time, and performance limitation. As a matter of fact, the experiment execution in real world is costly, dangerous, and time-consuming to obtain Required Operational Characteristics (ROC) for a new weapon acquisition although enhancing the fidelity of experiment results. Also, until presently most of the research contained a large amount of assumptions so therefore a bias is present in the experiment results. At this moment, the new methodology is proposed to solve these problems without a variety of assumptions. ROC of the new weapon system is developed through the new methodology, which is a way to analyze big data generated by simulating various scenarios based on virtual and constructive models which are involving 6 Degrees of Freedom (6DoF). The new methodology enables us to identify unbiased ROC on new weapons by reducing assumptions and provide support in terms of the optimal weapon systems acquisition.

Keywords: big data, required operational characteristics (ROC), virtual and constructive models, weapon acquisition

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Authors: A. Bahar Ganiyeva, M. Sabuhi Tanriverdiyev

Abstract:

The article analyzes state support and policy mechanisms aimed at driving tourism as one of the vibrant and rapidly developing economies. State programs and long-range strategic roadmaps and previous programs execution, results and their impact on the particular countries economy have been raised during the research. This theme provides a useful framework for discussions with a wider range of stakeholders as the implications arising are of importance both for academics and practitioners engaged in hospitality and tourism development and research. The impact that tourism has on sustainable regional development in emerging markets is highly substantial. For Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Russia, with their rich natural resources and cultural heritage, tourism can be an important basis for economic expansion, and a way to form an acceptable image of the countries as safe, open, hospitable, and complex.

Keywords: Sustainable tourism, hospitality, destination, strategic roadmap, tourism, economy, growth, state support, mechanism, policy formation, state program

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Authors: Foruzan Taheri, Seyedeh Negar Hosseinian, Katayoon Alizadeh

Abstract:

The small countryside city of Shandiz, with a population of about 13.297 is located 35 km to the west of the Mashhad metropolitan. Due to Shandiz’s natural beauty, suitable climate, and its close proximity to Mashhad which is the largest city in the eastern half of the country, many people own second houses in this area. In addition to this, Shandiz hosts millions of visitors annually. Its economic role, which is parallel and complementary to Mashhad, has caused population growth, the increase of activities, and physical expansion, all of which exceed the city’s capacity. The aim of this descriptive and analytical study was to evaluate the impact of city expansion on the environment and aid in preventing further harm to the natural environment of this perimeter. Data were collected from population and housing statistics during a different period of time-based on GIS. Results show that the existence of an integrated environmental management system in order to coordinate development projects and the expansion of tourism programs that meet environmental conditions are necessary and achieving sustainable development with quality of life in this area without considering environmental limitations and capabilities cannot be sustained.

Keywords: population growth, tourism, physical development, environmental impact, Shandiz City

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Authors: Aroona Hashmi

Abstract:

Parental Involvement is a strategic key to both traditional and contemporary way of ‘face-to-face’ schooling, including public/private schools and home schooling. Present research is destined to find out whether this connection happens in Pakistani schools, a land which faces educational hurdles. This study aims to find out the parental involvement in schooling of female students and its impact on their achievement at elementary level. In this study quantitative research approach is used. Survey is conducted by utilizing reliable and valid instrument named as Parental Involvement Project Questionnaire (PIP). A stratified random sampling technique applied to select twenty schools in total from District Lahore. Schools were selected from public and private sectors. All selected schools were registered with Punjab Examination Commission (PEC), therefore standardized tests are conducted by PEC for class 8 every year in Punjab province, Pakistan. In total 1000 students and their 1000 parents constituted the sample. Data were analyzed by using SPSS version 17. T-test and Regression was applied to independent samples to test the null hypotheses. The result of this study indicated that parents of female students showed more involvement as compared to parents of male students at elementary level. There was significant difference in the impact of parental involvement on achievement of female students and male students i.e. there was more impact of parental involvement found on achievement of female students as compared to male students.

Keywords: parental involvement, achievement, schooling, elementary level, PEC

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Authors: Samuel Richard Marcourt

Abstract:

The economic impact of community sports facilities can be examined through various dimensions, such as job creation, tourism, local business development, and property values. The aim of the study is to evaluate the economic impacts of community sports facilities on residents who lived within 500m radii of 4 Astro Turf soccer facilities in Ghana. The results of the study were based on the responses from in-depth semi-structured interviews with 16 purposively selected participants aged between 25 and 55 years. Participants’ responses revealed that community sports facilities create direct and indirect benefits for residents. Further, the direct benefits include job creation and employment among residents in the locality. Again, the promotion of local entrepreneurship and small business development, as well promotion of tourism, were indirect benefits. Consequently, the study provides useful data for stakeholders, including The Ministry of Sports, Ghana Football Association (GFA), and Government and non-governmental organizations, to construct more community sports facilities to assist in reducing the level of unemployment in Ghanaian communities.

Keywords: economic impact, community sports facilities, Astro turf, residents

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Authors: Jing-Gang Xie

Abstract:

The research, in this case, considers the integration of the Quantum Field Theory and the General Relativity Theory. As two successful models in explaining behaviors of particles, they are incompatible since they work at different masses and scales of energy, with the evidence that regards the description of black holes and universe formation. It is so considering previous efforts in merging the two theories, including the likes of the String Theory, Quantum Gravity models, and others. In a bid to prove an actionable experiment, the paper’s approach starts with the derivations of the existing theories at present. It goes on to test the derivations by applying the same initial assumptions, coupled with several deviations. The resulting equations get similar results to those of classical Newton model, quantum mechanics, and general relativity as long as conditions are normal. However, outcomes are different when conditions are extreme, specifically with no breakdowns even for less than Schwarzschild radius, or at Planck length cases. Even so, it proves the possibilities of integrating the two theories.

Keywords: general relativity theory, particles, photons, Quantum Gravity Model, gravitational frequency shift

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Authors: Caroline Correia, Stefani Perna, John Gaughan, Elizabeth Cerceo

Abstract:

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented changes to how hospitals function on a daily basis. Increased personal protective equipment (PPE) usage and measures to pre-package, separate, and decontaminate have the potential to increase the waste load. However, limiting non-essential surgeries drastically reduces operating room (OR) waste, and restricting visitation policies to contain outbreaks may help conserve resources. The impact of these policy changes with increased disposable PPE usage on hospital production of waste is unknown. Methods: Waste produced in pounds (lbs) was measured for January through June during both 2019 and 2020 through Stericycle in Cooper University Hospital in Camden, NJ. This timeframe was selected since the pandemic began in January 2020 in the US. The total waste produced during this time was 328,623 lbs in 2019 and 306,454 lbs in 2020. Using Poisson counts (α=.05), less waste was produced in 2020 (p < 0.001). The amount of sharps and regulated medical waste (grossly bloody items) were both significantly decreased as well (p < 0.0001, p=0.0002), and these account for 10-15% of the total waste produced. Discussion: Despite the increased usage of disposable PPE, overall hospital waste was decreased during the pandemic as compared to prior. As surgeries are estimated to be responsible for up to one-half of waste produced by hospitals, it is possible that constraint on elective procedures contributed to the decreased waste in all three categories; estimates of a 35% decrease in surgical volume would be expected to impact waste production. The effects of the pandemic on waste production should continue to be monitored to understand the environmental impact as health systems resume backlogged surgeries at a higher volume.

Keywords: COVID-19, hospital, surgery, waste

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Authors: Mohammad Abu Nassar, Mahmoud Al Khalilah, Hussein Abu Nassar

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to examine whether corporate tax avoidance practices can impact firm value in the Jordanian context. The study employs a quantitative approach using s sample of (124) industrial and services companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for the period from 2010 to 2019. Multiple linear regression analysis has been applied to test the study's hypothesis. The study employs effective tax rate and book-tax difference to measure tax avoidance and Tobin's Q factor to measure firm value. The results of the study revealed that tax avoidance practices, when measured using effective tax rates, do not significantly impact firm value. When the book-tax difference is used to measure tax avoidance, the study results showed a negative impact on firm value. The result of the study has not supported the traditional view of tax avoidance as a transfer of wealth from the government to shareholders for industrial and services companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange, indicating that Jordanian firms should not use tax avoidance strategies to enhance their value.

Keywords: tax avoidance, effective tax rate, book-tax difference, firm value, Amman stock exchange

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