Search results for: hoax prediction

Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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Authors: Georgios Koronis, Arlindo Silva

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This study seeks to understand the mechanical behavior of a natural fiber reinforced composite (epoxy/flax) in more depth, utilizing both experimental and numerical methods. It is attempted to identify relationships between the design parameters and the product performance, understand the effect of noise factors and reduce process variations. Optimization of the mechanical performance of manufactured goods has recently been implemented by numerous studies for green composites. However, these studies are limited and have explored in principal mass production processes. It is expected here to discover knowledge about composite’s manufacturing that can be used to design artifacts that are of low batch and tailored to niche markets. The goal is to reach greater consistency in the performance and further understand which factors play significant roles in obtaining the best mechanical performance. A prediction of response function (in various operating conditions) of the process is modeled by the DoE. Normally, a full factorial designed experiment is required and consists of all possible combinations of levels for all factors. An analytical assessment is possible though with just a fraction of the full factorial experiment. The outline of the research approach will comprise of evaluating the influence that these variables have and how they affect the composite mechanical behavior. The coupons will be fabricated by the vacuum infusion process defined by three process parameters: flow rate, injection point position and fiber treatment. Each process parameter is studied at 2-levels along with their interactions. Moreover, the tensile and flexural properties will be obtained through mechanical testing to discover the key process parameters. In this setting, an experimental phase will be followed in which a number of fabricated coupons will be tested to allow for a validation of the design of the experiment’s setup. Finally, the results are validated by performing the optimum set of in a final set of experiments as indicated by the DoE. It is expected that after a good agreement between the predicted and the verification experimental values, the optimal processing parameter of the biocomposite lamina will be effectively determined.

Keywords: design of experiments, flax fabrics, mechanical performance, natural fiber reinforced composites

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Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

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Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should properly evaluate their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, Neural Networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable to offer an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

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Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should evaluate properly their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, neural networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable of offering an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Berkan Ural, Arif Eser, Sinan Apaydin

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Medical image processing is generally become a challenging task nowadays. Indeed, processing of brain MRI images is one of the difficult parts of this area. This study proposes a hybrid well-defined approach which is consisted from tumor detection, extraction and analyzing steps. This approach is mainly consisted from a computer aided diagnostics system for identifying and detecting the tumor formation in any region of the brain and this system is commonly used for early prediction of brain tumor using advanced image processing and probabilistic neural network methods, respectively. For this approach, generally, some advanced noise removal functions, image processing methods such as automatic segmentation and morphological operations are used to detect the brain tumor boundaries and to obtain the important feature parameters of the tumor region. All stages of the approach are done specifically with using MATLAB software. Generally, for this approach, firstly tumor is successfully detected and the tumor area is contoured with a specific colored circle by the computer aided diagnostics program. Then, the tumor is segmented and some morphological processes are achieved to increase the visibility of the tumor area. Moreover, while this process continues, the tumor area and important shape based features are also calculated. Finally, with using the probabilistic neural network method and with using some advanced classification steps, tumor area and the type of the tumor are clearly obtained. Also, the future aim of this study is to detect the severity of lesions through classes of brain tumor which is achieved through advanced multi classification and neural network stages and creating a user friendly environment using GUI in MATLAB. In the experimental part of the study, generally, 100 images are used to train the diagnostics system and 100 out of sample images are also used to test and to check the whole results. The preliminary results demonstrate the high classification accuracy for the neural network structure. Finally, according to the results, this situation also motivates us to extend this framework to detect and localize the tumors in the other organs.

Keywords: image processing algorithms, magnetic resonance imaging, neural network, pattern recognition

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Authors: U. Ali Rahoma, Nabil Esawy, Fawzia Ibrahim Moursy, A. H. Hassan, Samy A. Khalil, Ashraf S. Khamees

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The design of any solar energy conversion system requires the knowledge of solar radiation data obtained over a long period. Satellite data has been widely used to estimate solar energy where no ground observation of solar radiation is available, yet there are limitations on the temporal coverage of satellite data. Reanalysis is a “retrospective analysis” of the atmosphere parameters generated by assimilating observation data from various sources, including ground observation, satellites, ships, and aircraft observation with the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, to develop an exhaustive record of weather and climate parameters. The evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa against high-quality surface measured data was performed using statistical analysis. The estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) distribution over six different selected locations in North Africa during ten years from the period time 2011 to 2020. The root means square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of reanalysis data of solar radiation range from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.0145 to 0.198, and 0.055 to 0.178, respectively. The seasonal statistical analysis was performed to study seasonal variation of performance of datasets, which reveals the significant variation of errors in different seasons—the performance of the dataset changes by changing the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison. The monthly mean values of data show better performance, but the accuracy of data is compromised. The solar radiation data of ERA-5 is used for preliminary solar resource assessment and power estimation. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% for the different selected sites in North Africa in the present research. The goal of this research is to give a good representation for global solar radiation to help in solar energy application in all fields, and this can be done by using gridded data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and producing a new model to give a good result.

Keywords: solar energy, solar radiation, ERA-5, potential energy

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Authors: Ochuko K. Overen, Golden Makaka, Edson L. Meyer, Sampson Mamphweli

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Low-cost housing provided for people with small incomes in South Africa are characterized by poor thermal performance. This is due to inferior craftsmanship with no regard to energy efficient design during the building process. On average, South African households spend 14% of their total monthly income on energy needs, in particular space heating; which is higher than the international benchmark of 10% for energy poverty. Adopting energy efficient passive solar design strategies and superior thermal building materials can create a stable thermal comfort environment indoors. Thereby, reducing energy consumption for space heating. The aim of this study is to analyse the thermal behaviour of a low-cost house integrated with passive solar design features. A low-cost passive solar house with superstructure fly ash brick walls was designed and constructed in Somerset East, South Africa. Indoor and outdoor meteorological parameters of the house were monitored for a period of one year. The ASTM E741-11 Standard was adopted to perform ventilation test in the house. In summer, the house was found to be thermally comfortable for 66% of the period monitored, while for winter it was about 79%. The ventilation heat flow rate of the windows and doors were found to be 140 J/s and 68 J/s, respectively. Air leakage through cracks and openings in the building envelope was 0.16 m3/m2h with a corresponding ventilation heat flow rate of 24 J/s. The indoor carbon dioxide concentration monitored overnight was found to be 0.248%, which is less than the maximum range limit of 0.500%. The prediction percentage dissatisfaction of the house shows that 86% of the occupants will express the thermal satisfaction of the indoor environment. With a good operation of the house, it can create a well-ventilated, thermal comfortable and nature luminous indoor environment for the occupants. Incorporating passive solar design in low-cost housing can be one of the long and immediate solutions to the energy crisis facing South Africa.

Keywords: energy efficiency, low-cost housing, passive solar design, rural development, thermal comfort

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Authors: Radin Siti Aishah Radin A Rahman, Norasmah Othman, Zaidatol Akmaliah Lope Pihie, Hariyaty Ab. Wahid

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The recent instability in economy was found to be influencing the situation in Malaysia whether directly or indirectly. Taking that into consideration, the government needs to find the best approach to balance its citizen’s socio-economic strata level urgently. Through education platform is among the efforts planned and acted upon for the purpose of balancing the effects of the influence, through the exposure of social entrepreneurial activity towards youth especially those in higher institution level. Armed with knowledge and skills that they gained, with the support by entrepreneurial culture and environment while in campus; indirectly, the students will lean more on making social entrepreneurship as a career option when they graduate. Following the issues of marketability and workability of current graduates that are becoming dire, research involving how far the willingness of student to create social innovation that contribute to the society without focusing solely on personal gain is relevant enough to be conducted. With that, this research is conducted with the purpose of identifying the level of entrepreneurial intention and social entrepreneurship among higher institution students in Malaysia. Stratified random sampling involves 355 undergraduate students from five public universities had been made as research respondents and data were collected through surveys. The data was then analyzed descriptively using min score and standard deviation. The study found that the entrepreneurial intention of higher education students are on moderate level, however it is the contrary for social entrepreneurship activities, where it was shown on a high level. This means that while the students only have moderate level of willingness to be a social entrepreneur, they are very committed to created social innovation through the social entrepreneurship activities conducted. The implication from this study can be contributed towards the higher institution authorities in prediction the tendency of student in becoming social entrepreneurs. Thus, the opportunities and facilities for realizing the courses related to social entrepreneurship must be created expansively so that the vision of creating as many social entrepreneurs as possible can be achieved.

Keywords: entrepreneurial intention, higher education institutions (HEIs), social entrepreneurship, social entrepreneurial activity, gender

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Authors: Javier Muro, Anja Linstadter, Florian Manner, Lisa Schwarz, Stephan Wollauer, Paul Magdon, Gohar Ghazaryan, Olena Dubovyk

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Monitoring the trade-off between biomass production and biodiversity in grasslands is critical to evaluate the effects of management practices across environmental gradients. New generations of remote sensing sensors and machine learning approaches can model grasslands’ characteristics with varying accuracies. However, studies often fail to cover a sufficiently broad range of environmental conditions, and evidence suggests that prediction models might be case specific. In this study, biomass production and biodiversity indices (species richness and Fishers’ α) are modeled in 150 grassland plots for three sites across Germany. These sites represent a North-South gradient and are characterized by distinct soil types, topographic properties, climatic conditions, and management intensities. Predictors used are derived from Sentinel-1 & 2 and a set of topoedaphic variables. The transferability of the models is tested by training and validating at different sites. The performance of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNN) is compared to a random forest algorithm. While biomass predictions across gradients and sites were acceptable (r2 0.5), predictions of biodiversity indices were poor (r2 0.14). DNN showed higher generalization capacity than random forest when predicting biomass across gradients and sites (relative root mean squared error of 0.5 for DNN vs. 0.85 for random forest). DNN also achieved high performance when using the Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data rather than different combinations of spectral indices, Sentinel-1 data, or topoedaphic variables, simplifying dimensionality. This study demonstrates the necessity of training biomass and biodiversity models using a broad range of environmental conditions and ensuring spatial independence to have realistic and transferable models where plot level information can be upscaled to landscape scale.

Keywords: ecosystem services, grassland management, machine learning, remote sensing

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Ching-Yi Lu, Chien Hung, Hsieh

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The purpose of this study is to explore the difference between state-owned-enterprise employees and the civil servants regarding their future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. The researchers investigated 687 middle age and older adults (345 state-owned-enterprise employees and 342 civil servants) through survey research, to understand the relevance between and the prediction of their future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. The findings of this study are: 1.There are significant differences between these two professions regarding future-oriented thinking but not retirement planning. The results of the future-oriented thinking of civil servants are overall higher than that of the state-owned-enterprise employees. 2. There are significant differences both in the aspects of future-oriented thinking and retirement planning among civil servants of different ages. The future-oriented thinking and retirement planning of ages 55 and above are more significant than those of ages 45 or under. For the state-owned-enterprise employees, however, there is no significance found in their future-oriented thinking, but in their retirement planning. Moreover, retirement planning is higher at ages 55 or above than at other ages. 3. With regard to education, there is no correlation to future-oriented thinking or retirement planning for civil servants. For state-owned-enterprise employees, however, their levels of education directly affect their future-oriented thinking. Those with a master degree or above have greater future-oriented thinking than those with other educational degrees. As for retirement planning, there is no correlation. 4. Self-assessment of economic status significantly affects the future-oriented thinking and retirement planning of both civil servants and state-owned-enterprise employees. Those who assess themselves more affluently are more inclined to future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. 5. For civil servants, there are significant differences between their monthly income and retirement planning, but none with future-oriented thinking. As for state-owned-enterprise employees, there are significant differences between their monthly income and retirement planning as well as future-oriented thinking. State-owned-enterprise employees who have significantly higher monthly incomes (1,960 euros and above) have more significant future-oriented thinking and retirement planning than those with lower monthly incomes (1,469 euros and below). 6. The middle age and older adults of both professions have positive correlations with future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. Through stepwise multiple regression analysis, the results indicate that future-oriented thinking and retirement planning have positive predictions. The authors then present the findings of this study for state-owned-enterprises, public authorities, and older adult educational program designs in Taiwan as references.

Keywords: state-owned-enterprise employees, civil servants, future-oriented thinking, retirement planning

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Authors: Sarocha Vivatvakin, Thanaporn Ratchataswan, Thiratest Leesutipornchai, Komkrit Ruangritchankul, Somboon Keelawat, Virachai Kerekhanjanarong, Patnarin Mahattanasakul, Saknan Bongsebandhu-Phubhakdi

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In this globalization era, much attention has been drawn to various molecular biomarkers, which may have the potential to predict the progression of cancer. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is the classic member of the ErbB family of membrane-associated intrinsic tyrosine kinase receptors. EGFR expression was found in several organs throughout the body as its roles involve in the regulation of cell proliferation, survival, and differentiation in normal physiologic conditions. However, anomalous expression, whether over- or under-expression is believed to be the underlying mechanism of pathologic conditions, including carcinogenesis. Even though numerous discussions regarding the EGFR as a prognostic tool in head and neck cancer have been established, the consensus has not yet been met. The aims of the present study are to assess the correlation between the level of EGFR expression and demographic data as well as clinicopathological features and to evaluate the ability of EGFR as a reliable prognostic marker. Furthermore, another aim of this study is to investigate the probable pathophysiology that explains the finding results. This retrospective study included 30 squamous cell laryngeal carcinoma patients treated at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004. EGFR expression level was observed to be significantly downregulated with the progression of the laryngeal cancer stage. (one way ANOVA, p = 0.001) A statistically significant lower EGFR expression in the late stage of the disease compared to the early stage was recorded. (unpaired t-test, p = 0.041) EGFR overexpression also showed the tendency to increase recurrence of cancer (unpaired t-test, p = 0.128). A significant downregulation of EGFR expression was documented in advanced stage laryngeal cancer. The results indicated that EGFR level correlates to prognosis in term of stage progression. Thus, EGFR expression might be used as a prevailing biomarker for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma prognostic prediction.

Keywords: downregulation, epidermal growth factor receptor, immunohistochemistry, laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

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Authors: Lucy Lugo Mawang

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Educational Psychologists have highlighted the significance of creativity in education. Likewise, a fundamental objective of music education concern the development of students’ musical creativity potential. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between motivation strategies and musical creativity, and establish the prediction equation of musical creativity. The study used purposive sampling and census to select 201 fourth-form music students (139 females/ 62 males), mainly from public secondary schools in Kenya. The mean age of participants was 17.24 years (SD = .78). Framed upon self- determination theory and the dichotomous model of achievement motivation, the study adopted an ex post facto research design. A self-report measure, the Achievement Goal Questionnaire-Revised (AGQ-R) was used in data collection for the independent variable. Musical creativity was based on a creative music composition task and measured by the Consensual Musical Creativity Assessment Scale (CMCAS). Data collected in two separate sessions within an interval of one month. The questionnaire was administered in the first session, lasting approximately 20 minutes. The second session was for notation of participants’ creative composition. The results indicated a positive correlation r(199) = .39, p ˂ .01 between musical creativity and intrinsic music motivation. Conversely, negative correlation r(199) = -.19, p < .01 was observed between musical creativity and extrinsic music motivation. The equation for predicting musical creativity from music motivation strategies was significant F(2, 198) = 20.8, p < .01, with R2 = .17. Motivation strategies accounted for approximately (17%) of the variance in participants’ musical creativity. Intrinsic music motivation had the highest significant predictive value (β = .38, p ˂ .01) on musical creativity. In the exploratory analysis, a significant mean difference t(118) = 4.59, p ˂ .01 in musical creativity for intrinsic and extrinsic music motivation was observed in favour of intrinsically motivated participants. Further, a significant gender difference t(93.47) = 4.31, p ˂ .01 in musical creativity was observed, with male participants scoring higher than females. However, there was no significant difference in participants’ musical creativity based on age. The study recommended that music educators should strive to enhance intrinsic music motivation among students. Specifically, schools should create conducive environments and have interventions for the development of intrinsic music motivation since it is the most facilitative motivation strategy in predicting musical creativity.

Keywords: extrinsic music motivation, intrinsic music motivation, musical creativity, music composition

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Authors: Percy Galvez, Anatoly Petukhin, Paul Somerville, Ken Miyakoshi, Kojiro Irikura, Daniel Peter

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Physics-based dynamic rupture modelling is necessary for estimating parameters such as rupture velocity and slip rate function that are important for ground motion simulation, but poorly resolved by observations, e.g. by seismic source inversion. In order to generate a large number of physically self-consistent rupture models, whose rupture process is consistent with the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of past earthquakes, we use multicycle simulations under the heterogeneous rate-and-state (RS) friction law for a 45deg dip-slip fault. We performed a parametrization study by fully dynamic rupture modeling, and then, a set of spontaneous source models was generated in a large magnitude range (Mw > 7.0). In order to validate rupture models, we compare the source scaling relations vs. seismic moment Mo for the modeled rupture area S, as well as average slip Dave and the slip asperity area Sa, with similar scaling relations from the source inversions. Ground motions were also computed from our models. Their peak ground velocities (PGV) agree well with the GMPE values. We obtained good agreement of the permanent surface offset values with empirical relations. From the heterogeneous rupture models, we analyzed parameters, which are critical for ground motion simulations, i.e. distributions of slip, slip rate, rupture initiation points, rupture velocities, and source time functions. We studied cross-correlations between them and with the friction weakening distance Dc value, the only initial heterogeneity parameter in our modeling. The main findings are: (1) high slip-rate areas coincide with or are located on an outer edge of the large slip areas, (2) ruptures have a tendency to initiate in small Dc areas, and (3) high slip-rate areas correlate with areas of small Dc, large rupture velocity and short rise-time.

Keywords: earthquake dynamics, strong ground motion prediction, seismic engineering, source characterization

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Authors: Suraj Mehrotra

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The stock market is a volatile, bustling marketplace that is a cornerstone of economics. It defines whether companies are successful or in spiral. A thorough understanding of it is important - many companies have whole divisions dedicated to analysis of both their stock and of rivaling companies. Linking the world of finance and artificial intelligence (AI), especially the stock market, has been a relatively recent development. Predicting how stocks will do considering all external factors and previous data has always been a human task. With the help of AI, however, machine learning models can help us make more complete predictions in financial trends. Taking a look at the stock market specifically, predicting the open, closing, high, and low prices for the next day is very hard to do. Machine learning makes this task a lot easier. A model that builds upon itself that takes in external factors as weights can predict trends far into the future. When used effectively, new doors can be opened up in the business and finance world, and companies can make better and more complete decisions. This paper explores the various techniques used in the prediction of stock prices, from traditional statistical methods to deep learning and neural networks based approaches, among other methods. It provides a detailed analysis of the techniques and also explores the challenges in predictive analysis. For the accuracy of the testing set, taking a look at four different models - linear regression, neural network, decision tree, and naïve Bayes - on the different stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, United Healthcare, Exxon Mobil, J.P. Morgan & Chase, and Johnson & Johnson, the naïve Bayes model and linear regression models worked best. For the testing set, the naïve Bayes model had the highest accuracy along with the linear regression model, followed by the neural network model and then the decision tree model. The training set had similar results except for the fact that the decision tree model was perfect with complete accuracy in its predictions, which makes sense. This means that the decision tree model likely overfitted the training set when used for the testing set.

Keywords: machine learning, testing set, artificial intelligence, stock analysis

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Authors: Zeinu Ahmed Rabba, Derek D Stretch

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Remote sensing contributes valuable information to streamflow estimates. Usually, stream flow is directly measured through ground-based hydrological monitoring station. However, in many developing countries like Ethiopia, ground-based hydrological monitoring networks are either sparse or nonexistent, which limits the manage water resources and hampers early flood-warning systems. In such cases, satellite remote sensing is an alternative means to acquire such information. This paper discusses the application of remotely sensed rainfall data for streamflow modeling in Gilgel Ghibe basin in Ethiopia. Ten years (2001-2010) of two satellite-based precipitation products (SBPP), TRMM and WaterBase, were used. These products were combined with the PyTOPKAPI hydrological model to generate daily stream flows. The results were compared with streamflow observations at Gilgel Ghibe Nr, Assendabo gauging station using four statistical tools (Bias, R², NS and RMSE). The statistical analysis indicates that the bias-adjusted SBPPs agree well with gauged rainfall compared to bias-unadjusted ones. The SBPPs with no bias-adjustment tend to overestimate (high Bias and high RMSE) the extreme precipitation events and the corresponding simulated streamflow outputs, particularly during wet months (June-September) and underestimate the streamflow prediction over few dry months (January and February). This shows that bias-adjustment can be important for improving the performance of the SBPPs in streamflow forecasting. We further conclude that the general streamflow patterns were well captured at daily time scales when using SBPPs after bias adjustment. However, the overall results demonstrate that the simulated streamflow using the gauged rainfall is superior to those obtained from remotely sensed rainfall products including bias-adjusted ones.

Keywords: Ethiopia, PyTOPKAPI model, remote sensing, streamflow, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), waterBase

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Authors: Rami Faraj, Cezary Graczykowski, Błażej Popławski, Grzegorz Mikułowski, Rafał Wiszowaty

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Progress in the field of sensors, electronics and computing results in more and more often applications of adaptive techniques for dynamic response mitigation. When it comes to systems excited with mechanical impacts, the control system has to take into account the significant limitations of actuators responsible for system adaptation. The paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the problem of appropriate design and implementation of adaptation techniques and mechanisms. Two case studies are presented in order to compare completely different adaptation schemes. The first example concerns a double-chamber pneumatic shock absorber with a fast piezo-electric valve and parameters corresponding to the suspension of a small unmanned aerial vehicle, whereas the second considered system is a safety air cushion applied for evacuation of people from heights during a fire. For both systems, it is possible to ensure adaptive performance, but a realization of the system’s adaptation is completely different. The reason for this is technical limitations corresponding to specific types of shock-absorbing devices and their parameters. Impact mitigation using a pneumatic shock absorber corresponds to much higher pressures and small mass flow rates, which can be achieved with minimal change of valve opening. In turn, mass flow rates in safety air cushions relate to gas release areas counted in thousands of sq. cm. Because of these facts, both shock-absorbing systems are controlled based on completely different approaches. Pneumatic shock-absorber takes advantage of real-time control with valve opening recalculated at least every millisecond. In contrast, safety air cushion is controlled using the semi-passive technique, where adaptation is provided using prediction of the entire impact mitigation process. Similarities of both approaches, including applied models, algorithms and equipment, are discussed. The entire study is supported by numerical simulations and experimental tests, which prove the effectiveness of both adaptive impact mitigation techniques.

Keywords: adaptive control, adaptive system, impact mitigation, pneumatic system, shock-absorber

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Authors: Swati Swati, Yuhang Chen, Robert Reuben

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Coronary stents are devices resembling the shape of a tube which are placed in coronary arteries, to keep the arteries open in the treatment of coronary arterial diseases. Coronary stents are routinely deployed to clear atheromatous plaque. The stent essentially applies an internal pressure to the artery because its structure is cylindrically symmetrical and this may introduce some abnormalities in final arterial shape. The goal of the project is to develop segmented circumferential arterial compliance measuring devices which can be deployed (eventually) in vivo. The segmentation of the device will allow the mechanical asymmetry of any stenosis to be assessed. The purpose will be to assess the quality of arterial tissue for applications in tailored stents and in the assessment of aortic aneurism. Arterial distensibility measurement is of utmost importance to diagnose cardiovascular diseases and for prediction of future cardiac events or coronary artery diseases. In order to arrive at some generic outcomes, a preliminary experimental set-up has been devised to establish the measurement principles for the device at macro-scale. The measurement methodology consists of a strain gauge system monitored by LABVIEW software in a real-time fashion. This virtual instrument employs a balloon within a gelatine model contained in a split cylinder with strain gauges fixed on it. The instrument allows automated measurement of the effect of air-pressure on gelatine and measurement of strain with respect to time and pressure during inflation. Compliance simple creep model has been applied to the results for the purpose of extracting some measures of arterial compliance. The results obtained from the experiments have been used to study the effect of air pressure on strain at varying time intervals. The results clearly demonstrate that with decrease in arterial volume and increase in arterial pressure, arterial strain increases thereby decreasing the arterial compliance. The measurement system could lead to development of portable, inexpensive and small equipment and could prove to be an efficient automated compliance measurement device.

Keywords: arterial compliance, atheromatous plaque, mechanical symmetry, strain measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Anusha P. Wijesundara, Dulap I. Rathnayake, Nihal D. Perera

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Bathymetric information is fundamental importance to coastal and marine planning and management, nautical navigation, and scientific studies of marine environments. Satellite-derived bathymetry data provide detailed information in areas where conventional sounding data is lacking and conventional surveys are inaccessible. The two empirical approaches of log-linear bathymetric inversion model and non-linear bathymetric inversion model are applied for deriving bathymetry from high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery. This study compares these two approaches by means of geographical error analysis for the site Kankesanturai using WorldView-2 satellite imagery. Based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method calibrated the parameters of non-linear inversion model and the multiple-linear regression model was applied to calibrate the log-linear inversion model. In order to calibrate both models, Single Beam Echo Sounding (SBES) data in this study area were used as reference points. Residuals were calculated as the difference between the derived depth values and the validation echo sounder bathymetry data and the geographical distribution of model residuals was mapped. The spatial autocorrelation was calculated by comparing the performance of the bathymetric models and the results showing the geographic errors for both models. A spatial error model was constructed from the initial bathymetry estimates and the estimates of autocorrelation. This spatial error model is used to generate more reliable estimates of bathymetry by quantifying autocorrelation of model error and incorporating this into an improved regression model. Log-linear model (R²=0.846) performs better than the non- linear model (R²=0.692). Finally, the spatial error models improved bathymetric estimates derived from linear and non-linear models up to R²=0.854 and R²=0.704 respectively. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was calculated for all reference points in various depth ranges. The magnitude of the prediction error increases with depth for both the log-linear and the non-linear inversion models. Overall RMSE for log-linear and the non-linear inversion models were ±1.532 m and ±2.089 m, respectively.

Keywords: log-linear model, multi spectral, residuals, spatial error model

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Authors: Frida Carrillo Morales, Maria Maricela Carrasco Yépez, Saúl Rojas Hernández

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Naegleria fowleri is the causative agent of primary amebic meningoencephalitis, this disease is acute and fulminant that affects humans. It has been reported that despite the existence of therapeutic options against this disease, its mortality rate is 97%. Therefore, the need arises to have vaccines that confer protection against this disease and, in addition to developing adjuvants to enhance the immune response. In this regard, in our work group, we obtained a peptide designed from the membrane protein MP2CL5 of Naegleria fowleri called Smp145 that was shown to be immunogenic; however, it would be of great importance to enhance its immunological response, being able to co-administer it with a non-toxic adjuvant. Therefore, the objective of this work was to carry out the bioinformatic design of a peptide of the Naegleria fowleri membrane protein MP2CL5 conjugated with a non-toxic modified adjuvant from the native A1 structure of Cholera Toxin. For which different bioinformatics tools were used to obtain a model with a modification in amino acid 61 of the A1 subunit of the CT (CTA1), to which the Smp145 peptide was added and both molecules were joined with a 13-glycine linker. As for the results obtained, the modification in CTA1 bound to the peptide produces a reduction in the toxicity of the molecule in in silico experiments, likewise, the prediction in the binding of Smp145 to the receptor of B cells suggests that the molecule is directed in specifically to the BCR receptor, decreasing its native enzymatic activity. The stereochemical evaluation showed that the generated model has a high number of adequately predicted residues. In the ERRAT test, the confidence with which it is possible to reject regions that exceed the error values was evaluated, in the generated model, a high score was obtained, which determines that the model has a good structural resolution. Therefore, the design of the conjugated peptide in this work will allow us to proceed with its chemical synthesis and subsequently be able to use it in the mouse meningitis protection model caused by N. fowleri.

Keywords: immunology, vaccines, pathogens, infectious disease

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Authors: Benbiao Song, Yan Gao, Zhuo Liu

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Geostatistical modeling is the key technic for reservoir characterization, the quality of geological models will influence the prediction of reservoir performance greatly, but few studies have been done to quantify the factors impacting geostatistical reservoir modeling accuracy. In this study, 16 fluvial prototype models have been established to represent different geological complexity, 6 cases range from 16 to 361 wells were defined to reproduce all those 16 prototype models by different methodologies including SIS, object-based and MPFS algorithms accompany with different constraint parameters. Modeling accuracy ratio was defined to quantify the influence of each factor, and ten realizations were averaged to represent each accuracy ratio under the same modeling condition and parameters association. Totally 5760 simulations were done to quantify the relative contribution of each factor to the simulation accuracy, and the results can be used as strategy guide for facies modeling in the similar condition. It is founded that data density, geological trend and geological complexity have great impact on modeling accuracy. Modeling accuracy may up to 90% when channel sand width reaches up to 1.5 times of well space under whatever condition by SIS and MPFS methods. When well density is low, the contribution of geological trend may increase the modeling accuracy from 40% to 70%, while the use of proper variogram may have very limited contribution for SIS method. It can be implied that when well data are dense enough to cover simple geobodies, few efforts were needed to construct an acceptable model, when geobodies are complex with insufficient data group, it is better to construct a set of robust geological trend than rely on a reliable variogram function. For object-based method, the modeling accuracy does not increase obviously as SIS method by the increase of data density, but kept rational appearance when data density is low. MPFS methods have the similar trend with SIS method, but the use of proper geological trend accompany with rational variogram may have better modeling accuracy than MPFS method. It implies that the geological modeling strategy for a real reservoir case needs to be optimized by evaluation of dataset, geological complexity, geological constraint information and the modeling objective.

Keywords: fluvial facies, geostatistics, geological trend, modeling strategy, modeling accuracy, variogram

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Authors: Meghdad Payan, Kostas Senetakis, Arman Khoshghalb, Nasser Khalili

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Dynamic properties of soils, especially at the range of very small strains, are of particular interest in geotechnical engineering practice for characterization of the behavior of geo-structures subjected to a variety of stress states. This study reports on the small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with particular emphasis on the effect of non-plastic fines content on the small strain shear modulus (Gmax), Young’s Modulus (Emax), material damping (Ds,min) and Poisson’s Ratio (v). Several clean sands with a wide range of grain size characteristics and particle shape are mixed with variable percentages of a silica non-plastic silt as fines content. Prepared specimens of sand-silt mixtures at different initial void ratios are subjected to sequential torsional and flexural resonant column tests with elastic dynamic properties measured along an isotropic stress path up to 800 kPa. It is shown that while at low percentages of fines content, there is a significant difference between the dynamic properties of the various samples due to the different characteristics of the sand portion of the mixtures, this variance diminishes as the fines content increases and the soil behavior becomes mainly silt-dominant, rendering no significant influence of sand properties on the elastic dynamic parameters. Indeed, beyond a specific portion of fines content, around 20% to 30% typically denoted as threshold fines content, silt is controlling the behavior of the mixture. Using the experimental results, new expressions for the prediction of small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures are developed accounting for the percentage of silt and the characteristics of the sand portion. These expressions are general in nature and are capable of evaluating the elastic dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with any types of parent sand in the whole range of silt percentage. The inefficiency of skeleton void ratio concept in the estimation of small-strain stiffness of sand-silt mixtures is also illustrated.

Keywords: damping ratio, Poisson’s ratio, resonant column, sand-silt mixture, shear modulus, Young’s modulus

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

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Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity, and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil, and climate parameters of the fig orchards, are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive, and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), the concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P, and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques, i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (principal component analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis metric for clustering), and k-nearest neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Umamaheswari Shanmugam, Silvia Ronchi

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Software, artificial intelligence, and machine learning can improve healthcare through innovative and advanced technologies that can use the large amount and variety of data generated during healthcare services every day; one of the significant advantages of these new technologies is the ability to get experience and knowledge from real-world use and to improve their performance continuously. Healthcare systems and institutions can significantly benefit because the use of advanced technologies improves the efficiency and efficacy of healthcare. Software-defined as a medical device, is stand-alone software that is intended to be used for patients for one or more of these specific medical intended uses: - diagnosis, prevention, monitoring, prediction, prognosis, treatment or alleviation of a disease, any other health conditions, replacing or modifying any part of a physiological or pathological process–manage the received information from in vitro specimens derived from the human samples (body) and without principal main action of its principal intended use by pharmacological, immunological or metabolic definition. Software qualified as medical devices must comply with the general safety and performance requirements applicable to medical devices. These requirements are necessary to ensure high performance and quality and protect patients' safety. The evolution and the continuous improvement of software used in healthcare must consider the increase in regulatory requirements, which are becoming more complex in each market. The gap between these advanced technologies and the new regulations is the biggest challenge for medical device manufacturers. Regulatory requirements can be considered a market barrier, as they can delay or obstacle the device's approval. Still, they are necessary to ensure performance, quality, and safety. At the same time, they can be a business opportunity if the manufacturer can define the appropriate regulatory strategy in advance. The abstract will provide an overview of the current regulatory framework, the evolution of the international requirements, and the standards applicable to medical device software in the potential market all over the world.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, SaMD, regulatory, clinical evaluation, classification, international requirements, MDR, 510k, PMA, IMDRF, cyber security, health care systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Siddharth Ahuja, T. M. Muruganandam

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An analytical investigation is performed to study the unsteady response of a one-dimensional, non-linear dynamic shock system to external downstream pressure perturbations in a supersonic flow in a varying area duct. For a given pressure ratio across a wind tunnel, the normal shock's location can be computed as per one-dimensional steady gas dynamics. Similarly, for some other pressure ratio, the location of the normal shock will change accordingly, again computed using one-dimensional gas dynamics. This investigation focuses on the small-time interval between the first steady shock location and the new steady shock location (corresponding to different pressure ratios). In essence, this study aims to shed light on the motion of the shock from one steady location to another steady location. Further, this study aims to create the foundation of the Unsteady Gas Dynamics field enabling further insight in future research work. According to the new pressure ratio, a pressure pulse, generated at the exit of the tunnel which travels and perturbs the shock from its original position, setting it into motion. During such activity, other numerous physical phenomena also happen at the same time. However, three broad phenomena have been focused on, in this study - Traversal of a Wave, Fluid Element Interactions and Wave Interactions. The above mentioned three phenomena create, alter and kill numerous waves for different conditions. The waves which are created by the above-mentioned phenomena eventually interact with the shock and set it into motion. Numerous such interactions with the shock will slowly make it settle into its final position owing to the new pressure ratio across the duct, as estimated by one-dimensional gas dynamics. This analysis will be extremely helpful in the prediction of inlet 'unstart' of the flow in a supersonic engine intake and its prominence with the incoming flow Mach number, incoming flow pressure and the external perturbation pressure is also studied to help design more efficient supersonic intakes for engines like ramjets and scramjets.

Keywords: analytical investigation, compression and expansion waves, fluid element interactions, shock trajectory, supersonic flow, unsteady gas dynamics, varying area duct, wave interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Suchithra V., Shreedhanya, Kavya Menon, Vidya Niranjan

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Skin metagenomics has a wide range of applications with direct relevance to the health of the organism. It gives us insight to the diverse community of microorganisms (the microbiome) harbored on the skin. In the recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the interaction between skin microbiome and the human body plays a prominent role in immune system development, cancer development, disease pathology, and many other biological implications. Next Generation Sequencing has led to faster and better understanding of environmental organisms and their mutual interactions. This project is studying the human skin microbiome of different individuals having varied skin conditions. Bacterial 16S rRNA data of skin microbiome is downloaded from SRA toolkit provided by NCBI to perform metagenomics analysis. Twelve samples are selected with two controls, and 3 different categories, i.e., sex (male/female), skin type (moist/intermittently moist/sebaceous) and occlusion (occluded/intermittently occluded/exposed). Quality of the data is increased using Cutadapt, and its analysis is done using FastQC. USearch, a tool used to analyze an NGS data, provides a suitable platform to obtain taxonomy classification and abundance of bacteria from the metagenome data. The statistical tool used for analyzing the USearch result is METAGENassist. The results revealed that the top three abundant organisms found were: Prevotella, Corynebacterium, and Anaerococcus. Prevotella is known to be an infectious bacterium found on wound, tooth cavity, etc. Corynebacterium and Anaerococcus are opportunist bacteria responsible for skin odor. This result infers that Prevotella thrives easily in sebaceous skin conditions. Therefore it is better to undergo intermittently occluded treatment such as applying ointments, creams, etc. to treat wound for sebaceous skin type. Exposing the wound should be avoided as it leads to an increase in Prevotella abundance. Moist skin type individuals can opt for occluded or intermittently occluded treatment as they have shown to decrease the abundance of bacteria during treatment.

Keywords: bacterial 16S rRNA , next generation sequencing, skin metagenomics, skin microbiome, taxonomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: T. Almutairi, K. Naudi, N. Nairn, X. Ju, B. Eng, J. Whitters, A. Ayoub

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Purpose: At present Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) imaging does not record dental morphology accurately due to the scattering produced by metallic restorations and the reported magnification. The aim of this pilot study is the development and validation of a new method for the replacement of the distorted dentition of CBCT scans with the dental image captured by the digital intraoral camera. Materials and Method: Six dried skulls with orthodontics brackets on the teeth were used in this study. Three intra-oral markers made of dental stone were constructed which were attached to orthodontics brackets. The skulls were CBCT scanned, and occlusal surface was captured using TRIOS® 3D intraoral scanner. Marker based and surface based registrations were performed to fuse the digital intra-oral scan(IOS) into the CBCT models. This produced a new composite digital model of the skull and dentition. The skulls were scanned again using the commercially accurate Laser Faro® arm to produce the 'gold standard' model for the assessment of the accuracy of the developed method. The accuracy of the method was assessed by measuring the distance between the occlusal surfaces of the new composite model and the 'gold standard' 3D model of the skull and teeth. The procedure was repeated a week apart to measure the reproducibility of the method. Results: The results showed no statistically significant difference between the measurements on the first and second occasions. The absolute mean distance between the new composite model and the laser model ranged between 0.11 mm to 0.20 mm. Conclusion: The dentition of the CBCT can be accurately replaced with the dental image captured by the intra-oral scanner to create a composite model. This method will improve the accuracy of orthognathic surgical prediction planning, with the final goal of the fabrication of a physical occlusal wafer without to guide orthognathic surgery and eliminate the need for dental impression.

Keywords: orthognathic surgery, superimposition, models, cone beam computed tomography

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Zahid Khalil, Saad Ul Haque, Asif Khan

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Decision making about identifying suitable sites for any project by considering different parameters is difficult. Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) can make it easy for those projects. This technology has proved to be an efficient and adequate in acquiring the desired information. In this study, GIS and MCA were employed to identify the suitable sites for small dams in Dadu Tehsil, Sindh. The GIS software is used to create all the spatial parameters for the analysis. The parameters that derived are slope, drainage density, rainfall, land use / land cover, soil groups, Curve Number (CN) and runoff index with a spatial resolution of 30m. The data used for deriving above layers include 30-meter resolution SRTM DEM, Landsat 8 imagery, and rainfall from National Centre of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and soil data from World Harmonized Soil Data (WHSD). Land use/Land cover map is derived from Landsat 8 using supervised classification. Slope, drainage network and watershed are delineated by terrain processing of DEM. The Soil Conservation Services (SCS) method is implemented to estimate the surface runoff from the rainfall. Prior to this, SCS-CN grid is developed by integrating the soil and land use/land cover raster. These layers with some technical and ecological constraints are assigned weights on the basis of suitability criteria. The pairwise comparison method, also known as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is taken into account as MCA for assigning weights on each decision element. All the parameters and group of parameters are integrated using weighted overlay in GIS environment to produce suitable sites for the Dams. The resultant layer is then classified into four classes namely, best suitable, suitable, moderate and less suitable. This study reveals a contribution to decision-making about suitable sites analysis for small dams using geospatial data with minimal amount of ground data. This suitability maps can be helpful for water resource management organizations in determination of feasible rainwater harvesting structures (RWH).

Keywords: Remote sensing, GIS, AHP, RWH

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 217