Search results for: balloon analogue risk task (BART)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8198

Search results for: balloon analogue risk task (BART)

6278 Phonological Encoding and Working Memory in Kannada Speaking Adults Who Stutter

Authors: Nirmal Sugathan, Santosh Maruthy

Abstract:

Background: A considerable number of studies have evidenced that phonological encoding (PE) and working memory (WM) skills operate differently in adults who stutter (AWS). In order to tap these skills, several paradigms have been employed such as phonological priming, phoneme monitoring, and nonword repetition tasks. This study, however, utilizes a word jumble paradigm to assess both PE and WM using different modalities and this may give a better understanding of phonological processing deficits in AWS. Aim: The present study investigated PE and WM abilities in conjunction with lexical access in AWS using jumbled words. The study also aimed at investigating the effect of increase in cognitive load on phonological processing in AWS by comparing the speech reaction time (SRT) and accuracy scores across various syllable lengths. Method: Participants were 11 AWS (Age range=19-26) and 11 adults who do not stutter (AWNS) (Age range=19-26) matched for age, gender and handedness. Stimuli: Ninety 3-, 4-, and 5-syllable jumbled words (JWs) (n=30 per syllable length category) constructed from Kannada words served as stimuli for jumbled word paradigm. In order to generate jumbled words (JWs), the syllables in the real words were randomly transpositioned. Procedures: To assess PE, the JWs were presently visually using DMDX software and for WM task, JWs were presented through auditory mode through headphones. The participants were asked to silently manipulate the jumbled words to form a Kannada real word and verbally respond once. The responses for both tasks were audio recorded using record function in DMDX software and the recorded responses were analyzed using PRAAT software to calculate the SRT. Results: SRT: Mann-Whitney test results demonstrated that AWS performed significantly slower on both tasks (p < 0.001) as indicated by increased SRT. Also, AWS presented with increased SRT on both the tasks in all syllable length conditions (p < 0.001). Effect of syllable length: Wilcoxon signed rank test was carried out revealed that, on task assessing PE, the SRT of 4syllable JWs were significantly higher in both AWS (Z= -2.93, p=.003) and AWNS (Z= -2.41, p=.003) when compared to 3-syllable words. However, the findings for 4- and 5-syllable words were not significant. Task Accuracy: The accuracy scores were calculated for three syllable length conditions for both PE and PM tasks and were compared across the groups using Mann-Whitney test. The results indicated that the accuracy scores of AWS were significantly below that of AWNS in all the three syllable conditions for both the tasks (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The above findings suggest that PE and WM skills are compromised in AWS as indicated by increased SRT. Also, AWS were progressively less accurate in descrambling JWs of increasing syllable length and this may be interpreted as, rather than existing as a uniform deficiency, PE and WM deficits emerge when the cognitive load is increased. AWNS exhibited increased SRT and increased accuracy for JWs of longer syllable length whereas AWS was not benefited from increasing the reaction time, thus AWS had to compromise for both SRT and accuracy while solving JWs of longer syllable length.

Keywords: adults who stutter, phonological ability, working memory, encoding, jumbled words

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6277 Effects of Macroprudential Policies on BankLending and Risks

Authors: Stefanie Behncke

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
6276 Addressing Supply Chain Data Risk with Data Security Assurance

Authors: Anna Fowler

Abstract:

When considering assets that may need protection, the mind begins to contemplate homes, cars, and investment funds. In most cases, the protection of those assets can be covered through security systems and insurance. Data is not the first thought that comes to mind that would need protection, even though data is at the core of most supply chain operations. It includes trade secrets, management of personal identifiable information (PII), and consumer data that can be used to enhance the overall experience. Data is considered a critical element of success for supply chains and should be one of the most critical areas to protect. In the supply chain industry, there are two major misconceptions about protecting data: (i) We do not manage or store confidential/personally identifiable information (PII). (ii) Reliance on Third-Party vendor security. These misconceptions can significantly derail organizational efforts to adequately protect data across environments. These statistics can be exciting yet overwhelming at the same time. The first misconception, “We do not manage or store confidential/personally identifiable information (PII)” is dangerous as it implies the organization does not have proper data literacy. Enterprise employees will zero in on the aspect of PII while neglecting trade secret theft and the complete breakdown of information sharing. To circumvent the first bullet point, the second bullet point forges an ideology that “Reliance on Third-Party vendor security” will absolve the company from security risk. Instead, third-party risk has grown over the last two years and is one of the major causes of data security breaches. It is important to understand that a holistic approach should be considered when protecting data which should not involve purchasing a Data Loss Prevention (DLP) tool. A tool is not a solution. To protect supply chain data, start by providing data literacy training to all employees and negotiating the security component of contracts with vendors to highlight data literacy training for individuals/teams that may access company data. It is also important to understand the origin of the data and its movement to include risk identification. Ensure processes effectively incorporate data security principles. Evaluate and select DLP solutions to address specific concerns/use cases in conjunction with data visibility. These approaches are part of a broader solutions framework called Data Security Assurance (DSA). The DSA Framework looks at all of the processes across the supply chain, including their corresponding architecture and workflows, employee data literacy, governance and controls, integration between third and fourth-party vendors, DLP as a solution concept, and policies related to data residency. Within cloud environments, this framework is crucial for the supply chain industry to avoid regulatory implications and third/fourth party risk.

Keywords: security by design, data security architecture, cybersecurity framework, data security assurance

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
6275 Predictors and Prevention of Sports’ Injuries among Male Professional Footballers in Nigeria

Authors: Timothy A. Oloyede

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The study assessed the influence of playing field, climatic conditions, rate of exposure to matches, skill level and competition level on the occurrence and severity of football injuries. The prospective outline of the study was as follows: after a baseline examination and measurements were performed ascertaining possible predictors of injury, all players were followed up weekly for one year to register subsequent injuries and complaints. Four hundred and thirty-five out of 455 subjects completed the weekly follow-ups over one year. Multiple regression analysis was employed to analyse the data collected. Results showed that playing field, climatic conditions, rate of exposure to matches skill level and competition level were predictors of injuries among the professional footballer. Playing on natural grass, acclimatization, reduction of physical overload, among others, were strategies postulated for preventing injuries.

Keywords: sports’ injuries, predictors of sports’ injuries, intrinsic risk factors, extrinsic risk factors, injury mechanism, professional footballer

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
6274 Computer-Aided Depression Screening: A Literature Review on Optimal Methodologies for Mental Health Screening

Authors: Michelle Nighswander

Abstract:

Suicide can be a tragic response to mental illness. It is difficult for people to disclose or discuss suicidal impulses. The stigma surrounding mental health can create a reluctance to seek help for mental illness. Patients may feel pressure to exhibit a socially desirable demeanor rather than reveal these issues, especially if they sense their healthcare provider is pressed for time or does not have an extensive history with their provider. Overcoming these barriers can be challenging. Although there are several validated depression and suicide risk instruments, varying processes used to administer these tools may impact the truthfulness of the responses. A literature review was conducted to find evidence of the impact of the environment on the accuracy of depression screening. Many investigations do not describe the environment and fewer studies use a comparison design. However, three studies demonstrated that computerized self-reporting might be more likely to elicit truthful and accurate responses due to increased privacy when responding compared to a face-to-face interview. These studies showed patients reported positive reactions to computerized screening for other stigmatizing health conditions such as alcohol use during pregnancy. Computerized self-screening for depression offers the possibility of more privacy and patient reflection, which could then send a targeted message of risk to the healthcare provider. This could potentially increase the accuracy while also increasing time efficiency for the clinic. Considering the persistent effects of mental health stigma, how these screening questions are posed can impact patients’ responses. This literature review analyzes trends in depression screening methodologies, the impact of setting on the results and how this may assist in overcoming one barrier caused by stigma.

Keywords: computerized self-report, depression, mental health stigma, suicide risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
6273 Identification of Training Topics for the Improvement of the Relevant Cognitive Skills of Technical Operators in the Railway Domain

Authors: Giulio Nisoli, Jonas Brüngger, Karin Hostettler, Nicole Stoller, Katrin Fischer

Abstract:

Technical operators in the railway domain are experts responsible for the supervisory control of the railway power grid as well as of the railway tunnels. The technical systems used to master these demanding tasks are constantly increasing in their degree of automation. It becomes therefore difficult for technical operators to maintain the control over the technical systems and the processes of their job. In particular, the operators must have the necessary experience and knowledge in dealing with a malfunction situation or unexpected event. For this reason, it is of growing importance that the skills relevant for the execution of the job are maintained and further developed beyond the basic training they receive, where they are educated in respect of technical knowledge and the work with guidelines. Training methods aimed at improving the cognitive skills needed by technical operators are still missing and must be developed. Goals of the present study were to identify which are the relevant cognitive skills of technical operators in the railway domain and to define which topics should be addressed by the training of these skills. Observational interviews were conducted in order to identify the main tasks and the organization of the work of technical operators as well as the technical systems used for the execution of their job. Based on this analysis, the most demanding tasks of technical operators could be identified and described. The cognitive skills involved in the execution of these tasks are those, which need to be trained. In order to identify and analyze these cognitive skills a cognitive task analysis (CTA) was developed. CTA specifically aims at identifying the cognitive skills that employees implement when performing their own tasks. The identified cognitive skills of technical operators were summarized and grouped in training topics. For every training topic, specific goals were defined. The goals regard the three main categories; knowledge, skills and attitude to be trained in every training topic. Based on the results of this study, it is possible to develop specific training methods to train the relevant cognitive skills of the technical operators.

Keywords: cognitive skills, cognitive task analysis, technical operators in the railway domain, training topics

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
6272 Factors of Social Network Platform Usage and Privacy Risk: A Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology2 Model

Authors: Wang Xue, Fan Liwei

Abstract:

The trust and use of social network platforms by users are instrumental factors that contribute to the platform’s sustainable development. Studying the influential factors of the use of social network platforms is beneficial for developing and maintaining a large user base. This study constructed an extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) moderating model with perceived privacy risks to analyze the factors affecting the trust and use of social network platforms. 444 participants completed our 35 surveys, and we verified the survey results by structural equation model. Empirical results reveal the influencing factors that affect the trust and use of social network platforms, and the extended UTAUT2 model with perceived privacy risks increases the applicability of UTAUT2 in social network scenarios. Social networking platforms can increase their use rate by increasing the economics, functionality, entertainment, and privacy security of the platform.

Keywords: perceived privacy risk, social network, trust, use, UTAUT2 model

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6271 Approaches to Tsunami Mitigation and Prevention: Explaining Architectural Strategies for Reducing Urban Risk

Authors: Hedyeh Gamini, Hadi Abdus

Abstract:

Tsunami, as a natural disaster, is composed of waves that are usually caused by severe movements at the sea floor. Although tsunami and its consequences cannot be prevented in any way, by examining past tsunamis and extracting key points on how to deal with this incident and learning from it, a positive step can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements and reduce the risk of this phenomenon in architecture and urbanism. The method is reviewing and has examined the documents written and valid internet sites related to managing and reducing the vulnerability of human settlements in face of tsunami. This paper has explored the tsunamis in Indonesia (2004), Sri Lanka (2004) and Japan (2011), and of the study objectives has been understanding how they dealt with tsunami and extracting key points, and the lessons from them in terms of reduction of vulnerability of human settlements in dealing with the tsunami. Finally, strategies to prevent and reduce the vulnerability of communities at risk of tsunamis have been offered in terms of architecture and urban planning. According to what is obtained from the study of the recent tsunamis, the authorities' quality of dealing with them, how to manage the crisis and the manner of their construction, it can be concluded that to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements against tsunami, there are generally four ways that are: 1-Construction of tall buildings with opening on the first floor so that water can flow easily under and the direction of the building should be in a way that water passes easily from the side. 2- The construction of multi-purpose centers, which could be used as vertical evacuation during accidents. 3- Constructing buildings in core forms with diagonal orientation of the coastline, 4- Building physical barriers (natural and synthetic) such as water dams, mounds of earth, sea walls and creating forests

Keywords: tsunami, architecture, reducing vulnerability, human settlements, urbanism

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6270 Idea Thinking Integrated Typology Technology of 6 Sigma, TRIZ, and Visual Planning

Authors: Dongkyu Lee, Doan-Quoc Hoan, Soomi Shin

Abstract:

This study shows an easy R&D innovation-activity methodology which embodies the methodological strategy of supplementing the disadvantages of 6 sigma by TRIZ and considers the acceptance of employees through the change in the concept of innovation-activity methodology from the focus of chapter development to that of stepwise executed task.

Keywords: idea thinking, 6 sigma, triz, visual planning, R&D, innovation-activity

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6269 Groundwater Arsenic Contamination in Gangetic Jharkhand, India: Risk Implications for Human Health and Sustainable Agriculture

Authors: Sukalyan Chakraborty

Abstract:

Arsenic contamination in groundwater has been a matter of serious concern worldwide. Globally, arsenic contaminated water has caused serious chronic human diseases and in the last few decades the transfer of arsenic to human beings via food chain has gained much attention because food represents a further potential exposure pathway to arsenic in instances where crops are irrigated with high arsenic groundwater, grown in contaminated fields or cooked with arsenic laden water. In the present study, the groundwater of Sahibganj district of Jharkhand has been analysed to find the degree of contamination and its probable associated risk due to direct consumption or irrigation. The present study area comprising of three blocks, namely Sahibganj, Rajmahal and Udhwa in Sahibganj district of Jharkhand state, India, situated in the western bank of river Ganga has been investigated for arsenic contamination in groundwater, soil and crops predominantly growing in the region. Associated physicochemical parameters of groundwater including pH, temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved oxygen (DO), oxidation reduction potential (ORP), ammonium, nitrate and chloride were assessed to understand the mobilisation mechanism and chances of arsenic exposure from soil to crops and further into the food chain. Results suggested the groundwater to be dominantly Ca-HCO3- type with low redox potential and high total dissolved solids load. Major cations followed the order of Ca ˃ Na ˃ Mg ˃ K. The concentration of major anions was found in the order of HCO3− > Cl− > SO42− > NO3− > PO43− varied between 0.009 to 0.20 mg L-1. Fe concentrations of the groundwater samples were below WHO permissible limit varying between 54 to 344 µg L-1. Phosphate concentration was high and showed a significant positive correlation with arsenic. As concentrations ranged from 7 to 115 µg L-1 in premonsoon, between 2 and 98 µg L-1 in monsoon and 1 to 133µg L-1 in postmonsoon season. Arsenic concentration was found to be much higher than the WHO or BIS permissible limit in majority of the villages in the study area. Arsenic was also seen to be positively correlated with iron and phosphate. PCA results demonstrated the role of both geological condition and anthropogenic inputs to influence the water quality. Arsenic was also found to increase with depth up to 100 m from the surface. Calculation of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects of the arsenic concentration in the communities exposed to the groundwater for drinking and other purpose indicated high risk with an average of more than 1 in a 1000 population. Health risk analysis revealed high to very high carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk for adults and children in the communities dependent on groundwater of the study area. Observation suggested the groundwater to be considerably polluted with arsenic and posing significant health risk for the exposed communities. The mobilisation mechanism of arsenic also could be identified from the results suggesting reductive dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides due to high phosphate concentration from agricultural input arsenic release from the sediments along river Ganges.

Keywords: arsenic, physicochemical parameters, mobilisation, health effects

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6268 Comparing of Hypogonadism Frequency between Metabolic Syndrome Men with Normal Men

Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Seyed Bahman Ghaderian, Homeira Rashidi, Mahmoud Mapar

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Background and Objective The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is considered the most important public health threat of the 21st century. This syndrome is characterized by a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including increased central abdominal obesity, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein, high blood pressure, increased fasting glucose, and hyperinsulinemia. MetS has been associated with hypogonadism and erectile dysfunction (ED), and MetS may be considered a risk factor for ED. The aim of this study was finding an association between metabolic syndrome and hypogonadism in Khouzestan, Iran. Subjects and Methods: In this study, 60 patients divided into two groups consisted of 30 cases (with metabolic syndrome) and 30 controls. Total and free Serum Testosterone and FBS in all of them were measured. Data was analyzed with SPSS20 program. Results: There was a significant difference between two groups about free Testosterone (P=0.01), FBS (P=0.002) and LH (P=0.03). Conclusion: According to this finding, it is thought the prevalence of hypogonadism in men with metabolic syndrome is more than the general population.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, fasting blood sugar, hypogonadism, testosterone

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6267 Resilience and Mindfulness as Individual Resources Building Communication Skills for Physicians

Authors: Malgorzata Sekulowicz, Krystyna Boron-Krupinska, Paulina Morga, Blazej Cieslik

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Burnout is highly prevalent in health care employees, especially in physicians. It significantly reduces the efficiency of these employees, which can have negative consequences for both physicians and patients. Resilience and mindfulness enhancing positive emotions, leading to sustainable development and personal commitment, can have a significant impact on burnout. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the relationship between burnout symptoms and mindfulness and resilience among physicians. The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey study among seventy-four polish physicians. Participants filled out the following psychometric tools: the Maslach Burnout Inventory - Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS), Five Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ), Areas of Work-Life Survey (AWS), International Personality Item Pool (IPIP), the Resilience Assessment Scale (SPP-25) and the Mini-COPE Inventory. The relationship between burnout and resilience and mindfulness was assessed with path analysis. Analyzing the relationship between MBI-HSS components and mindfulness, a significant negative correlation of the FFMQ score with emotional exhaustion (-0.50, p < 0.05) and depersonalization (-0.43, p < 0.05) and a positive correlation with personal accomplishment (0.50, p < 0.05) was demonstrated. Analyzing resilience, a statistically significant relationship of SPP-25 with all tested components of MBI-HSS was demonstrated: emotional exhaustion (-0.54, p < 0.05), depersonalization (-0.31, p < 0.05) and personal accomplishment (0.35, p < 0.05). In the group of medical doctors, the higher the level of mindfulness and resilience, the lower the risk of burnout. Furthermore, the more frequently used active coping strategies (planning, acceptance), the lower the risk of burnout, while the use of passive, evasive strategies increases the risk of burnout. It may be worth considering implementing mindfulness intervention to effectively manage burnout symptoms in this group.

Keywords: burnout, medical doctors, mindfulness, physicians, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
6266 Process for Analyzing Information Security Risks Associated with the Incorporation of Online Dispute Resolution Systems in the Context of Conciliation in Colombia

Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

Abstract:

The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
6265 Model Averaging in a Multiplicative Heteroscedastic Model

Authors: Alan Wan

Abstract:

In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 385
6264 Comparative Study of Flood Plain Protection Zone Determination Methodologies in Colombia, Spain and Canada

Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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6263 Treatment of Feline Infectious Peritonitis in Cats with Molnupiravir: Clinical Observations and Outcomes For 54 Cases

Authors: T. M. Clark, S. J. Coggins, R. Malik, J. King, R. Korman

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Objectives: This observational study investigated the use of molnupiravir for treatment of cats with naturally occurring feline infectious peritonitis. Methods: From September 2022 to February 2024, 66 cats diagnosed with FIP across 32 veterinary practices, mainly in Australia, were enrolled. Of these, 54 cats met the inclusion criteria. Complete remission was defined by the resolution of clinical signs and normalisation of A:G ratio (to ≥0.6). Presumptive remission was defined as sustained resolution of FIP-related clinical signs for at least 100 days post cessation of antiviral therapy. Results: In Cohort 1, 18 cats were treated with molnupiravir monotherapy. Thirteen achieved complete remission and three attained presumptive remission, resulting in an overall remission rate of 89% and a provisional cure rate of 72%, with three relapses. Cohort 2 included 29 cats treated with a short induction course of GS-441524 and/or remdesivir before switching to molnupiravir; 23 attained complete remission, and two achieved presumptive remission. The overall cure rate was 86% with no relapses. Seven cats in cohort 3 were initially treated with extended courses of GS-441524, remdesivir, and/or mefloquine and experienced treatment failure or relapse. Molnupiravir was introduced as a rescue therapy; 6 achieved complete remission and 1 achieved presumed remission, resulting in a 100% cure rate with no relapses. Few adverse effects were reported, with the most notable including neutropenia, transient elevations in hepatic enzymes, and polydipsia/polyuria. Conclusion and Relevance: Molnupiravir as a monotherapy, or in combination with other antivirals, represents an accessible, effective treatment for FIP when given at a dosage of 10-15 mg/kg BID. Success occurred across various presentations of FIP, including cases with ocular and neurological involvement.

Keywords: feline infectious peritonitis, FIP, molnupiravir, nucleoside analogue, antiviral

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6262 Application of a Lighting Design Method Using Mean Room Surface Exitance

Authors: Antonello Durante, James Duff, Kevin Kelly

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The visual needs of people in modern work based buildings are changing. Self-illuminated screens of computers, televisions, tablets and smart phones have changed the relationship between people and the lit environment. In the past, lighting design practice was primarily based on providing uniform horizontal illuminance on the working plane, but this has failed to ensure good quality lit environments. Lighting standards of today continue to be set based upon a 100 year old approach that at its core, considers the task illuminance of the utmost importance, with this task typically being located on a horizontal plane. An alternative method focused on appearance has been proposed, as opposed to the traditional performance based approach. Mean Room Surface Exitance (MRSE) and Target-Ambient Illuminance Ratio (TAIR) are two new metrics proposed to assess illumination adequacy in interiors. The hypothesis is that these factors will be superior to the existing metrics used, which are horizontal illuminance led. For the six past years, research has examined this, within the Dublin Institute of Technology, with a view to determining the suitability of this approach for application to general lighting practice. Since the start of this research, a number of key findings have been produced that centered on how occupants will react to various levels of MRSE. This paper provides a broad update on how this research has progressed. More specifically, this paper will: i) Demonstrate how MRSE can be measured using HDR images technology, ii) Illustrate how MRSE can be calculated using scripting and an open source lighting computation engine, iii) Describe experimental results that demonstrate how occupants have reacted to various levels of MRSE within experimental office environments.

Keywords: illumination hierarchy (IH), mean room surface exitance (MRSE), perceived adequacy of illumination (PAI), target-ambient illumination ratio (TAIR)

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6261 Association between Physical Inactivity and Sedentary Behaviours with Risk of Hypertension among Sedentary Occupation Workers: A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Hanan Badr, Fahad Manee, Rao Shashidhar, Omar Bayoumy

Abstract:

Introduction: Hypertension is the major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and stroke and a universe leading cause of disability-adjusted life years and mortality. Adopting an unhealthy lifestyle is thought to be associated with developing hypertension regardless of predisposing genetic factors. This study aimed to examine the association between recreational physical activity (RPA), and sedentary behaviors with a risk of hypertension among ministry employees, where there is no role for occupational physical activity (PA), and to scrutinize participants’ time spent in RPA and sedentary behaviors on the working and weekend days. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 2562 employees working at ten randomly selected ministries in Kuwait. To have a representative sample, the proportional allocation technique was used to define the number of participants in each ministry. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data about participants' socio-demographic characteristics, health status, and their 24 hours’ time use during a regular working day and a weekend day. The time use covered a list of 20 different activities practiced by a person daily. The New Zealand Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (NZPAQ-SF) was used to assess the level of RPA. The scale generates three categories according to the number of hours spent in RPA/week: relatively inactive, relatively active, and highly active. Gender-matched trained nurses performed anthropometric measurements (weight and height) and measuring blood pressure (two readings) using an automatic blood pressure monitor (95% accuracy level compared to a calibrated mercury sphygmomanometer). Results: Participants’ mean age was 35.3±8.4 years, with almost equal gender distribution. About 13% of the participants were smokers, and 75% were overweight. Almost 10% reported doctor-diagnosed hypertension. Among those who did not, the mean systolic blood pressure was 119.9±14.2 and the mean diastolic blood pressure was 80.9±7.3. Moreover, 73.9% of participants were relatively physically inactive and 18% were highly active. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a significant inverse association with the level of RPA (means of blood pressure measures were: 123.3/82.8 among relatively inactive, 119.7/80.4 among relatively active, and 116.6/79.6 among highly active). Furthermore, RPA occupied 1.6% and 1.8% of working and weekend days, respectively, while sedentary behaviors (watching TV, using electronics for social media or entertaining, etc.) occupied 11.2% and 13.1%, respectively. Sedentary behaviors were significantly associated with high levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Binary logistic regression revealed that physical inactivity (OR=3.13, 95% CI: 2.25-4.35) and sedentary behaviors (OR=2.25, CI: 1.45-3.17) were independent risk factors for high systolic and diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for other covariates. Conclusions: Physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyle were associated with a high risk of hypertension. Further research to examine the independent role of RPA in improving blood pressure levels and cultural and occupational barriers for practicing RPA are recommended. Policies should be enacted in promoting PA in the workplace that might help in decreasing the risk of hypertension among sedentary occupation workers.

Keywords: physical activity, sedentary behaviors, hypertension, workplace

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6260 Influence of Ligature Tightening on Bone Fracture Risk in Interspinous Process Surgery

Authors: Dae Kyung Choi, Won Man Park, Kyungsoo Kim, Yoon Hyuk Kim

Abstract:

The interspinous process devices have been recently used due to its advantages such as minimal invasiveness and less subsidence of the implant to the osteoporotic bone. In this paper, we have analyzed the influences of ligature tightening of several interspinous process devices using finite element analysis. Four types of interspinous process implants were inserted to the L3-4 spinal motion segment based on their surgical protocols. Inferior plane of L4 vertebra was fixed and 7.5 Nm of extension moment were applied on superior plane of L3 vertebra with 400N of compressive load along follower load direction and pretension of the ligature. The stability of the spinal unit was high enough than that of intact model. The higher value of pretension in the ligature led the decrease of dynamic stabilization effect in cases of the WallisTM, DiamTM, Viking, and Spear®. The results of present study could be used to evaluate surgical option and validate the biomechanical characteristics of the spinal implants.

Keywords: interspinous process device, bone fracture risk, lumbar spine, finite element analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 400
6259 Cooperative Robot Application in a Never Explored or an Abandoned Sub-Surface Mine

Authors: Michael K. O. Ayomoh, Oyindamola A. Omotuyi

Abstract:

Autonomous mobile robots deployed to explore or operate in a never explored or an abandoned sub-surface mine requires extreme effectiveness in coordination and communication. In a bid to transmit information from the depth of the mine to the external surface in real-time and amidst diverse physical, chemical and virtual impediments, the concept of unified cooperative robots is seen to be a proficient approach. This paper presents an effective [human → robot → task] coordination framework for effective exploration of an abandoned underground mine. The problem addressed in this research is basically the development of a globalized optimization model premised on time series differentiation and geometrical configurations for effective positioning of the two classes of robots in the cooperation namely the outermost stationary master (OSM) robots and the innermost dynamic task (IDT) robots for effective bi-directional signal transmission. In addition, the synchronization of a vision system and wireless communication system for both categories of robots, fiber optics system for the OSM robots in cases of highly sloppy or vertical mine channels and an autonomous battery recharging capability for the IDT robots further enhanced the proposed concept. The OSM robots are the master robots which are positioned at strategic locations starting from the mine open surface down to its base using a fiber-optic cable or a wireless communication medium all subject to the identified mine geometrical configuration. The OSM robots are usually stationary and function by coordinating the transmission of signals from the IDT robots at the base of the mine to the surface and in a reverse order based on human decisions at the surface control station. The proposed scheme also presents an optimized number of robots required to form the cooperation in a bid to reduce overall operational cost and system complexity.

Keywords: sub-surface mine, wireless communication, outermost stationary master robots, inner-most dynamic robots, fiber optic

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6258 An Ergonomic Evaluation of Three Load Carriage Systems for Reducing Muscle Activity of Trunk and Lower Extremities during Giant Puppet Performing Tasks

Authors: Cathy SW. Chow, Kristina Shin, Faming Wang, B. C. L. So

Abstract:

During some dynamic giant puppet performances, an ergonomically designed load carrier system is necessary for the puppeteers to carry a giant puppet body’s heavy load with minimum muscle stress. A load carrier (i.e. prototype) was designed with two small wheels on the foot; and a hybrid spring device on the knee in order to assist the sliding and knee bending movements respectively. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of three load carriers including two other commercially available load mounting systems, Tepex and SuitX, and the prototype. Ten male participants were recruited for the experiment. Surface electromyography (sEMG) was used to collect the participants’ muscle activities during forward moving and bouncing and with and without load of 11.1 kg that was 60 cm above the shoulder. Five bilateral muscles including the lumbar erector spinae (LES), rectus femoris (RF), bicep femoris (BF), tibialis anterior (TA), and gastrocnemius (GM) were selected for data collection. During forward moving task, the sEMG data showed smallest muscle activities by Tepex harness which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the prototype and SuitX which were significantly higher on left LES 68.99% and 64.99%, right LES 26.57% and 82.45%; left RF 87.71% and 47.61%, right RF 143.57% and 24.28%; left BF 80.21% and 22.23%, right BF 96.02% and 21.83%; right TA 6.32% and 4.47%; left GM 5.89% and 12.35% respectively. The result above reflected mobility was highly restricted by tested exoskeleton devices. On the other hand, the sEMG data from bouncing task showed the smallest muscle activities by prototype which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the Tepex harness and SuitX which were significantly lower on lLES 6.65% and 104.93, rLES 23.56% and 92.19%; lBF 33.21% and 93.26% and rBF 24.70% and 81.16%; lTA 46.51% and 191.02%; rTA 12.75% and 125.76%; IGM 31.54% and 68.36%; rGM 95.95% and 96.43% respectively.

Keywords: exoskeleton, giant puppet performers, load carriage system, surface electromyography

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6257 Margin-Based Feed-Forward Neural Network Classifiers

Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

Abstract:

Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labeled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open data sets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labeled and more high-dimension data set in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, classifier, structural risk

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6256 Establishing a Model of the Environmental Behavior of College Students: The Example of Global Climate Change

Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

Abstract:

Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

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6255 Synthesis and Anticancer Evaluation of Substituted 2-(3,4-Dimethoxyphenyl) Benzazoles

Authors: Cigdem Karaaslan, Yalcin Duydu, Aylin Ustundag, Can Ozgur Yalcın, Hakan Goker

Abstract:

Benzazole nucleus is found in the structure of many compounds as anticancer agents. Bendamustine (Alkylating agent), Nocodazole (Mitotic inhibitor), Veliparib (PARP inhibitor), Glasdegib (SMO inhibitor) are clinically used as anticancer therapeutics which bearing benzimidazole moiety. Based on the principle of bioisosterism in the present work, 23 compounds belonging to 2-(3,4-dimethoxy-phenyl) benzazoles and imidazopyridine series were synthesized and evaluated for their anticancer activities. N-(5-Chloro-2-hydroxyphenyl)-3,4-dimethoxybenzamide, was obtained by the amidation of 2-hydroxy-5-chloroaniline with 3,4-dimethoxybenzoic acid by using 1,1'-carbonyldiimidazole. Cyclization of benzamide derivative to benzoxazole, was achieved by p-toluenesulfonic acid. Other 1H-benz (or pyrido) azoles were prepared by the reaction between 2-aminothiophenol, o-phenylenediamine, o-pyridinediamine with sodium metabisulfite adduct of 3,4-dimethoxybenzaldehyde. The NMR assignments of the dimethoxy groups were established by the Nuclear Overhauser Effect Spectroscopy. A compound named, 5(4),7(6)-Dichloro-2-(3,4-dimethoxy) phenyl-1H-benzimidazole, bearing two chlorine atoms at the 5(4) and 7(6) positions of the benzene moiety of benzimidazole was found the most potent analogue, against A549 cells with the GI50 value of 1.5 µg/mL. In addition, 2-(3,4-Dimethoxyphenyl)-5,6-dimethyl-1H-benzimi-dazole showed remarkable cell growth inhibition against MCF-7 and HeLa cells with the GI₅₀ values of 7 and 5.5 µg/mL, respectively. It could be concluded that introduction of di-chloro atoms at the phenyl ring of 2-(3,4-dimethoxyphenyl)-1H-benzimidazoles increase significant cytotoxicity to selected human tumor cell lines in comparison to other all benzazoles synthesized in this study. Unsubstituted 2-(3,4-dimethoxyphenyl) imidazopyridines also gave the good inhibitory profile against A549 and HeLa cells.

Keywords: 3, 4-Dimethoxyphenyl, 1H-benzimidazole, benzazole, imidazopyridine

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6254 Entrepreneurship Education: The Impact in Today’s World

Authors: Oghenerume V. Edah, Damilola T. Aladejana

Abstract:

Entrepreneurship Education is the process of developing and acquiring entrepreneur skills on how to identify a new business and launching the business with the realization of yielding profit optimally. It’s the process of knowing how to take risk and handle challenges that accompanies a new business without the mindset of closing it when it fails. It includes steps to take when a business is recognized, combined with acquiring resources (e.g. finances, labor, land) in the face of risk and launching the new business. Additionally, Entrepreneurship is defined as the ability and willingness to set a business in the event of making profit. It is the act of starting up a business to solve big problems or present a new life-changing solution in the society to generate profit. It’s a process where a business opportunity is identified; planned, acquired and needful steps are taken to launch a business. This involves taking up financial risk, acquiring natural resources, combined with land, capital and building up a team of people who would individually contribute or add value in order to make the new business a success. Moreover, Education is the learning of new skills or value. It’s the acquiring of knowledge and capability of doing new things. It is been able to differentiate what you know and what you don’t know yet. In this modern world, the emergence of entrepreneurship education has been magnificent. An average of 60 percent humans wants to start a business or become an entrepreneur without knowing the steps on how to startup. Moreover, many of them are good starters and they end up failing when the business is not managed well. The introduction of Entrepreneur Education in our world today would change the face of business phenomenally. It would involve the acquisition of entrepreneur skills, knowledge and attitude towards initiating a business venture. The impact of Entrepreneurship Education in our world today would increase the chances of business success because it would generate better entrepreneurs. The skills, values, concept and processes acquired through learning have changed the face of business to a positive direction globally and the impact can be felt. Entrepreneurship can be taught and also can be learnt. Like any skills it can be known.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, education, business, entrepreneur, skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
6253 The Effects of High Velocity Low Amplitude Thrust Manipulation versus Low Velocity Low Amplitude Mobilization in Treatment of Chronic Mechanical Low Back Pain

Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Ibrahim M. I. Hamoda,  Mona H. Gamal Eldein, Ibrahim Magdy Elnaggar

Abstract:

Background: High-velocity low amplitude thrust (HVLAT) manipulation and low-velocity low amplitude (LVLA) mobilization are an effective treatment for low back pain (LBP). Purpose: This study compared the effects of HVLAT versus LVLA on pain, functional deficits and segmental mobility in treatment of chronic mechanical LBP. Methods: Ninety patients suffering from chronic mechanical LBP are classified to three groups; Thirty patients treated by HVLAT (group I), thirty patients treated by LVLA (group II) and thirty patients as control group (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 28.00±2.92, 27.83±2.28 and 28.07±3.05 years and BMI 27.98±2.60, 28.80±2.40 and 28.70±2.53 kg/m2 for group I, II and III respectively. The Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), the Oswestry low back pain disability questionnaire and modified schoper test were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted two weeks before and after treatment with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The treatment program group one was two weeks single session per week, and for group II two sessions per week for two weeks. Results: The One-way ANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and Oswestry score compared with group II two weeks after treatment. Moreover, the mobility in modified schoper increased significantly and the pain scores and Oswestry scores decreased significantly after treatment in group I and II compared with control group. Interpretation/Conclusion: HVLAT is preferable to LVLA mobilization, possibly due to a beneficial neurophysiological effect by Stimulating mechanically sensitive neurons in the lumbar facet joint capsule.

Keywords: low back pain, manipulation, mobilization, low velocity

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6252 Examining the Development of Complexity, Accuracy and Fluency in L2 Learners' Writing after L2 Instruction

Authors: Khaled Barkaoui

Abstract:

Research on second-language (L2) learning tends to focus on comparing students with different levels of proficiency at one point in time. However, to understand L2 development, we need more longitudinal research. In this study, we adopt a longitudinal approach to examine changes in three indicators of L2 ability, complexity, accuracy, and fluency (CAF), as reflected in the writing of L2 learners when writing on different tasks before and after a period L2 instruction. Each of 85 Chinese learners of English at three levels of English language proficiency responded to two writing tasks (independent and integrated) before and after nine months of English-language study in China. Each essay (N= 276) was analyzed in terms of numerous CAF indices using both computer coding and human rating: number of words written, number of errors per 100 words, ratings of error severity, global syntactic complexity (MLS), complexity by coordination (T/S), complexity by subordination (C/T), clausal complexity (MLC), phrasal complexity (NP density), syntactic variety, lexical density, lexical variation, lexical sophistication, and lexical bundles. Results were then compared statistically across tasks, L2 proficiency levels, and time. Overall, task type had significant effects on fluency and some syntactic complexity indices (complexity by coordination, structural variety, clausal complexity, phrase complexity) and lexical density, sophistication, and bundles, but not accuracy. L2 proficiency had significant effects on fluency, accuracy, and lexical variation, but not syntactic complexity. Finally, fluency, frequency of errors, but not accuracy ratings, syntactic complexity indices (clausal complexity, global complexity, complexity by subordination, phrase complexity, structural variety) and lexical complexity (lexical density, variation, and sophistication) exhibited significant changes after instruction, particularly for the independent task. We discuss the findings and their implications for assessment, instruction, and research on CAF in the context of L2 writing.

Keywords: second language writing, Fluency, accuracy, complexity, longitudinal

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
6251 Modelling the Dynamics of Corporate Bonds Spreads with Asymmetric GARCH Models

Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

Abstract:

This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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6250 Derivation of a Risk-Based Level of Service Index for Surface Street Network Using Reliability Analysis

Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

Abstract:

Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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6249 Identifying Diabetic Retinopathy Complication by Predictive Techniques in Indian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 186