Search results for: generalized linear model (GLM)

Authors: Gokhan Kilic, Pelin Celik

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is widely used in evaluating the state and health of membrane structures. In the past, in order to collect data and send it to a data collection unit on membrane structures, wire sensors had to be put as part of the SHM process. However, this study recommends using wireless sensors instead of traditional wire ones to construct an economical, useful, and easy-to-install membrane structure health monitoring system. Every wireless sensor uses a software translation program that is connected to the monitoring server. Operational neural networks (ONNs) have recently been developed to solve the shortcomings of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), such as the network's resemblance to the linear neuron model. The results of using ONNs for monitoring to evaluate the structural health of a membrane are presented in this work.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, non-destructive testing, operational neural networks, membrane structures, dynamic monitoring

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Authors: Andreas Rudisch, Ralf Lampert, Andreas Kolbitsch

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It is a well-known fact among the engineering community that earthquakes with comparatively low magnitudes can cause serious damage to nonstructural components (NSCs) of buildings, even when the supporting structure performs relatively well. Past research works focused mainly on NSCs of nuclear power plants and industrial plants. Particular attention should also be given to architectural façade elements of old masonry buildings (e.g. ornamental figures, balustrades, vases), which are very vulnerable under seismic excitation. Large numbers of these historical nonstructural components (HiNSCs) can be found in highly frequented historical city centers and in the event of failure, they pose a significant danger to persons. In order to estimate the vulnerability of acceleration sensitive HiNSCs, the peak horizontal floor acceleration (PHFA) is used. The PHFA depends on the dynamic characteristics of the building, the ground excitation, and induced nonlinearities. Consequently, the PHFA can not be generalized as a simple function of height. In the present research work, an extensive case study was conducted to investigate the influence of induced nonlinearity on the PHFA for old masonry buildings. Probabilistic nonlinear FE time-history analyses considering three different hazard levels were performed. A set of eighteen synthetically generated ground motions was used as input to the structure models. An elastoplastic macro-model (multiPlas) for nonlinear homogenized continuum FE-calculation was calibrated to multiple scales and applied, taking specific failure mechanisms of masonry into account. The macro-model was calibrated according to the results of specific laboratory and cyclic in situ shear tests. The nonlinear macro-model is based on the concept of multi-surface rate-independent plasticity. Material damage or crack formation are detected by reducing the initial strength after failure due to shear or tensile stress. As a result, shear forces can only be transmitted to a limited extent by friction when the cracking begins. The tensile strength is reduced to zero. The first goal of the calibration was the consistency of the load-displacement curves between experiment and simulation. The calibrated macro-model matches well with regard to the initial stiffness and the maximum horizontal load. Another goal was the correct reproduction of the observed crack image and the plastic strain activities. Again the macro-model proved to work well in this case and shows very good correlation. The results of the case study show that there is significant scatter in the absolute distribution of the PHFA between the applied ground excitations. An absolute distribution along the normalized building height was determined in the framework of probability theory. It can be observed that the extent of nonlinear behavior varies for the three hazard levels. Due to the detailed scope of the present research work, a robust comparison with code-recommendations and simplified PHFA distributions are possible. The chosen methodology offers a chance to determine the distribution of PHFA along the building height of old masonry structures. This permits a proper hazard assessment of HiNSCs under seismic loads.

Keywords: nonlinear macro-model, nonstructural components, time-history analysis, unreinforced masonry

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Marija Paunović, Nebojša Ralević, Dejan Ćebić

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Actuarial assessments in insurance are inherently subjective due to various factors, including data limitations and the complexity of problems. Fuzzy mathematics and credibility theory provide robust frameworks to manage this subjectivity and uncertainty. Uncertain future events are closely linked with the credibility theory. This paper extends the properties of c−credibility measure. We generalized the c−credibility measure in fuzzy environment and proved some properties of this measure. Those properties will provide more practical applications of the c−credibility measure of fuzzy events, especially in the context of insurance.

Keywords: uncertainty, fuzzy measures, c-credibility measure, c-credibility in fuzzy environment

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Authors: Iliya Bitrus Abaje

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This study examines the evidence of climate change scenario in Kaduna State from the analysis of temperature and rainfall data (1976-2015) from three meteorological stations along a geographic transect from the southern part to the northern part of the State. Different statistical methods were used in determining the changes in both the temperature and rainfall series. The result of the linear trend lines revealed a mean increase in average temperature of 0.73oC for the 40 years period of study in the State. The plotted standard deviation for the temperature anomalies generally revealed that years of temperatures above the mean standard deviation (hotter than the normal conditions) in the last two decades (1996-2005 and 2006-2015) were more than those below (colder than the normal condition). The Cramer’s test and student’s t-test generally revealed an increasing temperature trend in the recent decades. The increased in temperature is an evidence that the earth’s atmosphere is getting warmer in recent years. The linear trend line equation of the annual rainfall for the period of study showed a mean increase of 316.25 mm for the State. Findings also revealed that the plotted standard deviation for the rainfall anomalies, and the 10-year non-overlapping and 30-year overlapping sub-periods analysis in all the three stations generally showed an increasing trend from the beginning of the data to the recent years. This is an evidence that the study area is now experiencing wetter conditions in recent years and hence climate change. The study recommends diversification of the economic base of the populace with emphasis on moving away from activities that are sensitive to temperature and rainfall extremes Also, appropriate strategies to ameliorate the scourge of climate change at all levels/sectors should always take into account the recent changes in temperature and rainfall amount in the area.

Keywords: anomalies, linear trend, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: Mustafa Kamoona, Mohamed El-Sharkawy

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Although the latest Wireless Local Area Network technology Wi-Fi 802.11i standard addresses many of the security weaknesses of the antecedent Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) protocol, there are still scenarios where the network security are still vulnerable. The first security model that 802.11i offers is the Personal model which is very cheap and simple to install and maintain, yet it uses a Pre Shared Key (PSK) and thus has a low to medium security level. The second model that 802.11i provide is the Enterprise model which is highly secured but much more expensive and difficult to install/maintain and requires the installation and maintenance of an authentication server that will handle the authentication and key management for the wireless network. A central issue with the personal model is that the PSK needs to be shared with all the devices that are connected to the specific Wi-Fi network. This pre-shared key, unless changed regularly, can be cracked using offline dictionary attacks within a matter of hours. The key is burdensome to change in all the connected devices manually unless there is some kind of algorithm that coordinate this PSK update. The key idea of this paper is to propose a new algorithm that proactively and effectively coordinates the pre-shared key generation, management, and distribution in the cheap WPA/WPA2 personal security model using only a DD-WRT router.

Keywords: Wi-Fi, WPS, TLS, DD-WRT

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Elena Puica

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This paper aims to investigate the impact of Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the environment by applying a Machine Learning model while pointing out the efficiency of the technology used. The Machine Learning model was used to derive the efficiency and optimization of technology used in SCM and the environmental impact of SCM processes. The model applied is a predictive classification model and was trained firstly to determine which stage of the SCM has more outputs and secondly to demonstrate the efficiency of using advanced technology in SCM instead of recuring to traditional SCM. The outputs are the emissions generated in the environment, the consumption from different steps in the life cycle, the resulting pollutants/wastes emitted, and all the releases to air, land, and water. This manuscript presents an innovative approach to applying advanced technology in SCM and simultaneously studies the efficiency of technology and the SCM's impact on the environment. Identifying the conceptual relationships between SCM practices and their impact on the environment is a new contribution to the research. The authors can take a forward step in developing recent studies in SCM and its effects on the environment by applying technology.

Keywords: machine-learning model in SCM, SCM processes, SCM and the environmental impact, technology in SCM

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

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Authors: Jiashu Shen

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Objectives: Spirometry is a basic reference for health evaluation which is widely used in clinical. Previous reference of spirometry is not applicable because of drastic changes of social and natural circumstance in China. A new reference values for the spirometry of the Chinese population is extremely needed. Method: Spirometric reference value was established using the statistical modeling method Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC, and maximal mid-expiratory flow (MMEF). Results: Data from 236,606 healthy non-smokers aged 4–90 years was collected from the MJ Health Check database. Spirometry equations for FEV1, FVC, MMEF, and FEV1/FVC were established, including the predicted values and lower limits of normal (LLNs) by sex. The predictive equations that were developed for the spirometric results elaborated the relationship between spirometry and age, and they eliminated the effects of height as a variable. Most previous predictive equations for Chinese spirometry were significantly overestimated (to be exact, with mean differences of 22.21% in FEV1 and 31.39% in FVC for males, along with differences of 26.93% in FEV1 and 35.76% in FVC for females) or underestimated (with mean differences of -5.81% in MMEF and -14.56% in FEV1/FVC for males, along with a difference of -14.54% in FEV1/FVC for females) the results of lung function measurements as found in this study. Through cross-validation, our equations were established as having good fit, and the means of the measured value and the estimated value were compared, with good results. Conclusions: Our study updates the spirometric reference equations for Chinese people of all ages and provides comprehensive values for both physical examination and clinical diagnosis.

Keywords: Chinese, GAMLSS model, reference values, spirometry

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Authors: Breno Barrreto Silva, Agnieszka Otwinowska, Katarzyna Kutylowska

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Research comparing lexical learning following the writing of sentences and longer texts with keywords is limited and contradictory. One possibility is that the recursivity of writing may enhance processing and increase lexical learning; another possibility is that the higher cognitive load of complex-text writing (e.g., essays), at least when timed, may hinder the learning of words. In our study, we selected 2 sets of 10 academic keywords matched for part of speech, length (number of characters), frequency (SUBTLEXus), and concreteness, and we asked 90 L1-Polish advanced-level English majors to use the keywords when writing sentences, timed (60 minutes) or untimed essays. First, all participants wrote a timed Control essay (60 minutes) without keywords. Then different groups produced Timed essays (60 minutes; n=33), Untimed essays (n=24), or Sentences (n=33) using the two sets of glossed keywords (counterbalanced). The comparability of the participants in the three groups was ensured by matching them for proficiency in English (LexTALE), and for few measures derived from the control essay: VocD (assessing productive lexical diversity), normed errors (assessing productive accuracy), words per minute (assessing productive written fluency), and holistic scores (assessing overall quality of production). We measured lexical learning (depth and breadth) via an adapted Vocabulary Knowledge Scale (VKS) and a free association test. Cognitive load was measured in the three essays (Control, Timed, Untimed) using normed number of errors and holistic scores (TOEFL criteria). The number of errors and essay scores were obtained from two raters (interrater reliability Pearson’s r=.78-91). Generalized linear mixed models showed no difference in the breadth and depth of keyword knowledge after writing Sentences, Timed essays, and Untimed essays. The task-based measurements found that Control and Timed essays had similar holistic scores, but that Untimed essay had better quality than Timed essay. Also, Untimed essay was the most accurate, and Timed essay the most error prone. Concluding, using keywords in Timed, but not Untimed, essays increased cognitive load, leading to more errors and lower quality. Still, writing sentences and essays yielded similar lexical learning, and differences in the cognitive load between Timed and Untimed essays did not affect lexical acquisition.

Keywords: learning academic words, writing essays, cognitive load, english as an L2

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Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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Brain activity can be measured by acquiring and analyzing EEG signals from an individual. In fact, the human brain response to external and internal stimuli is mapped in his EEG signals. During years some methods such as Fourier transform, wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, etc. have been used to analyze the EEG signals in order to find the effect of stimuli, especially external stimuli. But each of these methods has some weak points in analysis of EEG signals. For instance, Fourier transform and wavelet transform methods are linear signal analysis methods which are not good to be used for analysis of EEG signals as nonlinear signals. In this research we analyze the brain response to visual stimuli by extracting information in the form of various measures from EEG signals using a software developed by our research group. The used measures are Jeffrey’s measure, Fractal dimension and Hurst exponent. The results of these analyses are useful not only for fundamental understanding of brain response to visual stimuli but provide us with very good recommendations for clinical purposes.

Keywords: visual stimuli, brain response, EEG signal, fractal dimension, hurst exponent, Jeffrey’s measure

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

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Authors: K. A. Adepoju, O. I. Shittu, A. U. Chukwu

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In this paper, a new four-parameter generalized version of the Fisher Snedecor distribution called Beta- F distribution is introduced. The comprehensive account of the statistical properties of the new distributions was considered. Formal expressions for the cumulative density function, moments, moment generating function and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as its Fisher information, were obtained. The flexibility of this distribution as well as its robustness using cancer remission time data was demonstrated. The new distribution can be used in most applications where the assumption underlying the use of other lifetime distributions is violated.

Keywords: fisher-snedecor distribution, beta-f distribution, outlier, maximum likelihood method

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Authors: Edwin Calderon-Mendoza, Patrick Schweitzer, Serge Weber

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Series arc faults appear frequently and unpredictably in low voltage distribution systems. Many methods have been developed to detect this type of faults and commercial protection systems such AFCI (arc fault circuit interrupter) have been used successfully in electrical networks to prevent damage and catastrophic incidents like fires. However, these devices do not allow series arc faults to be located on the line in operating mode. This paper presents a location algorithm for series arc fault in a low-voltage indoor power line in an AC 230 V-50Hz home network. The method is validated through simulations using the MATLAB software. The fault location method uses electrical parameters (resistance, inductance, capacitance, and conductance) of a 49 m indoor power line. The mathematical model of a series arc fault is based on the analysis of the V-I characteristics of the arc and consists basically of two antiparallel diodes and DC voltage sources. In a first step, the arc fault model is inserted at some different positions across the line which is modeled using lumped parameters. At both ends of the line, currents and voltages are recorded for each arc fault generation at different distances. In the second step, a fault map trace is created by using signature coefficients obtained from Kirchhoff equations which allow a virtual decoupling of the line’s mutual capacitance. Each signature coefficient obtained from the subtraction of estimated currents is calculated taking into account the Discrete Fast Fourier Transform of currents and voltages and also the fault distance value. These parameters are then substituted into Kirchhoff equations. In a third step, the same procedure described previously to calculate signature coefficients is employed but this time by considering hypothetical fault distances where the fault can appear. In this step the fault distance is unknown. The iterative calculus from Kirchhoff equations considering stepped variations of the fault distance entails the obtaining of a curve with a linear trend. Finally, the fault distance location is estimated at the intersection of two curves obtained in steps 2 and 3. The series arc fault model is validated by comparing current registered from simulation with real recorded currents. The model of the complete circuit is obtained for a 49m line with a resistive load. Also, 11 different arc fault positions are considered for the map trace generation. By carrying out the complete simulation, the performance of the method and the perspectives of the work will be presented.

Keywords: indoor power line, fault location, fault map trace, series arc fault

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Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

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Authors: Arturo Galván, Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martínez, Israel Enrique Herrera Díaz, José Ramón Gasca Tirado

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In recent years, one of the methods most used for the construction of tunnels in soft soil is the shield-driven tunneling. The advantage of this construction technique is that it allows excavating the tunnel while at the same time a primary lining is placed, which consists of precast segments. There are joints between segments, also called longitudinal joints, and joints between rings (called as circumferential joints). This is the reason because of this type of constructions cannot be considered as a continuous structure. The effect of these joints influences in the rigidity of the segmental lining and therefore in its structural response. A parametric study was performed to take into account the effect of different parameters in the structural response of typical segmental tunnels built in soft soil by using non-linear numerical models based on Finite Element Method by means of the software package ANSYS v. 11.0. In the first part of this study, two types of numerical models were performed. In the first one, the segments were modeled by using beam elements based on Timoshenko beam theory whilst the segment joints were modeled by using inelastic rotational springs considering the constitutive moment-rotation relation proposed by Gladwell. In this way, the mechanical behavior of longitudinal joints was simulated. On the other hand for simulating the mechanical behavior of circumferential joints elastic springs were considered. As well as, the stability given by the soil was modeled by means of elastic-linear springs. In the second type of models, the segments were modeled by means of three-dimensional solid elements and the joints with contact elements. In these models, the zone of the joints is modeled as a discontinuous (increasing the computational effort) therefore a discrete model is obtained. With these contact elements the mechanical behavior of joints is simulated considering that when the joint is closed, there is transmission of compressive and shear stresses but not of tensile stresses and when the joint is opened, there is no transmission of stresses. This type of models can detect changes in the geometry because of the relative movement of the elements that form the joints. A comparison between the numerical results with two types of models was carried out. In this way, the hypothesis considered in the simplified models were validated. In addition, the numerical models were calibrated with (Lab-based) experimental results obtained from the literature of a typical tunnel built in Europe. In the second part of this work, a parametric study was performed by using the simplified models due to less used computational effort compared to complex models. In the parametric study, the effect of material properties, the geometry of the tunnel, the arrangement of the longitudinal joints and the coupling of the rings were studied. Finally, it was concluded that the mechanical behavior of segment and ring joints and the arrangement of the segment joints affect the global behavior of the lining. As well as, the effect of the coupling between rings modifies the structural capacity of the lining.

Keywords: numerical models, parametric study, segmental tunnels, structural response

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Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: Cansu Tari, Ute Poerschke

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Sustainable campus design and planning in Higher Education requires an entire action plan and coordination of physical, educational, and social systems. Many institutions in the world are defining their sustainable development path and some are following existing green building and sustainable campus rating/ranking systems, guidelines. In the context of higher education, Turkish universities have limited academic, social and financial support related to sustainable living, building, and campus studies. While some research has been conducted in the last 60 years by farsighted academics, most of these works are based on individuals’ or small organizations’ own interests and efforts, and they are not known enough by the population of universities and possible prospective investors. Regarding the recent fast and uncontrolled growth in the Turkish Higher Education environment, setting a campus sustainability indicator set is a necessity for sustainable development of universities. The main objective of this paper is to specify the applicable sustainability indicators in the national context of Turkey, and propose a model guideline for sustainable Turkish university campuses. The analysis of Turkish legislation on environmental issues, special conditions of Turkish Higher Education system, and Turkey’s environmental risks and challenges set the backbone of the study and distinguish the set of indicators from generalized guidelines. Finally, the paper outlines some concrete suggestions for Turkish Universities to integrate sustainability efforts in their regional context. It will be useful for campus sustainability managers and planners, interested in developing action plans in their national and regional scope.

Keywords: campus sustainability, sustainability indicators, Turkish universities, national campus sustainability action plan

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: M. Kharazmi, M. Zakeri, M. Packirisamy, J. Faraji

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Micro/Nanorobotics or manipulation of nanoparticles by Atomic Force Microscopic (AFM) is one of the most important solutions for controlling the movement of atoms, particles and micro/nano metrics components and assembling of them to design micro/nano-meter tools. Accurate modelling of manipulation requires identification of forces and mechanical knowledge in the Nanoscale which are different from macro world. Due to the importance of the adhesion forces and the interaction of surfaces at the nanoscale several friction models were presented. In this research, friction and normal forces that are applied on the AFM by using of the dynamic bending-torsion model of AFM are obtained based on Hurtado-Kim friction model (HK), Johnson-Kendall-Robert contact model (JKR) and Greenwood-Williamson roughness model (GW). Finally, the effect of standard deviation of asperities height on the normal load, friction force and friction coefficient are studied.

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, contact model, friction coefficient, Greenwood-Williamson model

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: Abdul-Monim Batiha, Manar AlAzzam, Mohammed ALBashtawy, Loai Tawalbeh, Ahmad Tubaishat, Fadwa N. Alhalaiqa

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Background: Obesity is the major modifiable risk factor for many chronic illnesses especially high blood pressure. Objectives: To evaluate the relationship between anthropometric indices and high blood pressure, and which one was most strongly correlated with high blood pressure in Jordanian population. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with a total 622 students and workers from three Jordanian universities. Results: Nearly half of the participant are overweight (34.7%) and obese (15.4%) and hypertension was detected among 138 (22.2%) of the participants. Linear correlation was significant (p<0.01) between both systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure for all anthropometric indices, except for A body shape index and diastolic blood pressure was significant at p< 0.05. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the influence of age and anthropometric measurements. Conclusions: The waist circumference was the only independent predictor of hypertension, showing that this simple measurement may be an importance marker of high blood pressure in Jordanian population.

Keywords: anthropometric indices, Jordan, blood pressure, cross-sectional study, obesity, hypertension, waist circumference

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

Abstract:

The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

Abstract:

The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

Abstract:

Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Neoclis Hadjigeorgiou, Spyridon Angelopoulos, Evangelos V. Hristoforou, Paul P. Sotiriadis

Abstract:

The increasing demand for accurate and reliable magnetic measurements over the past decades has paved the way for the development of different types of magnetic sensing systems as well as of more advanced measurement techniques. Anisotropic Magneto Resistance (AMR) sensors have emerged as a promising solution for applications requiring high resolution, providing an ideal balance between performance and cost. However, certain issues of AMR sensors such as non-linear response and measurement noise are rarely discussed in the relevant literature. In this work, an analog closed loop compensation system is proposed, developed and tested as a means to eliminate the non-linearity of AMR response, reduce the 1/f noise and enhance the sensitivity of magnetic sensor. Additional performance aspects, such as cross-axis and hysteresis effects are also examined. This system was analyzed using an analytical model and a P-Spice model, considering both the sensor itself as well as the accompanying electronic circuitry. In addition, a commercial closed loop architecture Flux-Gate sensor (calibrated and certified), has been used for comparison purposes. Three different experimental setups have been constructed for the purposes of this work, each one utilized for DC magnetic field measurements, AC magnetic field measurements and Noise density measurements respectively. The DC magnetic field measurements have been conducted in laboratory environment employing a cubic Helmholtz coil setup in order to calibrate and characterize the system under consideration. A high-accuracy DC power supply has been used for providing the operating current to the Helmholtz coils. The results were recorded by a multichannel voltmeter The AC magnetic field measurements have been conducted in laboratory environment employing a cubic Helmholtz coil setup in order to examine the effective bandwidth not only of the proposed system but also for the Flux-Gate sensor. A voltage controlled current source driven by a function generator has been utilized for the Helmholtz coil excitation. The result was observed by the oscilloscope. The third experimental apparatus incorporated an AC magnetic shielding construction composed of several layers of electric steel that had been demagnetized prior to the experimental process. Each sensor was placed alone and the response was captured by the oscilloscope. The preliminary experimental results indicate that closed loop AMR response presented a maximum deviation of 0.36% with respect to the ideal linear response, while the corresponding values for the open loop AMR system and the Fluxgate sensor reached 2% and 0.01% respectively. Moreover, the noise density of the proposed close loop AMR sensor system remained almost as low as the noise density of the AMR sensor itself, yet considerably higher than that of the Flux-Gate sensor. All relevant numerical data are presented in the paper.

Keywords: AMR sensor, chopper, closed loop, electronic noise, magnetic noise, memory effects, flux-gate sensor, linearity improvement, sensitivity improvement

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

Abstract:

The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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