Search results for: sequential confidence estimation

Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Jaime Otavo

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Oscar del Barco, a former member of Los Montoneros, an Argentine guerrilla group of the 1970s, published a letter in 2004 that sparked a heated debate in his country about revolutionary violence. Del Barco, on the subject of «No matarás» (Thou shalt not kill) –as this debate was known– wrote to Sergio Schmucler, his addressee, the following: "There is no 'ideal' that justifies the death of a man. The founding principle of any community is 'Thou shalt not kill'. Thou shalt not kill the man because every man is sacred, and every man is all men".In this paper, the «No matarás» debate will be used to problematize two interconnected ideas that, in Colombia, underpinned the use of revolutionary violence by the guerrilla movements that emerged in the 1970s. On the one hand, an anthropological optimism; on the other, a theological scheme of converting violence into justice. Based on this, two arguments are put forward: 1) that revolutionary violence arose from an ethical-political certainty, namely: the confidence in being on the right side of history (because the violent ones were others), but 2) that its persistence over time made visible a tragic element, that is, that the bipolarity between victim and executioner, good and evil, or friend and foe that is inscribed in the class struggle is a false dilemma for in the context of revolutionary violence –as in the context of Greek tragedy–, no one ever has to make a decision, nor can he do so. For this reason, it is maintained that the fundamental aspect about guerrilla violence in Colombia is that it imposed itself as a violence of negativity which not only exceeded the capacity of the extreme left to control its revolutionary praxis but also exploited the link with the political subjectivation to which it aspired, the proletariat as the gravedigger of the bourgeoisie.

Keywords: marxism, social movements, armed struggle, debate thou shalt not kill

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Authors: Seyed Esmail Seyedi Bariran, Khairul Salleh Mohamed Sahari

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In multi-echelon supply chain networks, optimal supplier selection significantly depends on the accuracy of suppliers’ performance prediction. Different methods of multi criteria decision making such as ANN, GA, Fuzzy, AHP, etc have been previously used to predict the supplier performance but the “black-box” characteristic of these methods is yet a major concern to be resolved. Therefore, the primary objective in this paper is to implement an artificial intelligence-based gene expression programming (GEP) model to compare the prediction accuracy with that of ANN. A full factorial design with %95 confidence interval is initially applied to determine the appropriate set of criteria for supplier performance evaluation. A test-train approach is then utilized for the ANN and GEP exclusively. The training results are used to find the optimal network architecture and the testing data will determine the prediction accuracy of each method based on measures of root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R2). The results of a case study conducted in Supplying Automotive Parts Co. (SAPCO) with more than 100 local and foreign supply chain members revealed that, in comparison with ANN, gene expression programming has a significant preference in predicting supplier performance by referring to the respective RMSE and R-squared values. Moreover, using GEP, a mathematical function was also derived to solve the issue of ANN black-box structure in modeling the performance prediction.

Keywords: Supplier Performance Prediction, ANN, GEP, Automotive, SAPCO

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Authors: Munazza A. Mirza, Khawar Khurshid

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Individuals are generally associated with different learning styles, which have been explored extensively in recent past. The learning styles refer to the potential of an individual by which s/he can easily comprehend and retain information. Among various learning style models, VARK is the most accepted model which categorizes the learners with respect to their sensory characteristics. Based on the number of preferred learning modes, the learners can be categorized as uni-modal, bi-modal, tri-modal, or quad/multi-modal. Although there is a prevalent belief in the learning styles, however, the model is not being frequently and effectively utilized in the higher education. This research describes the identification model to validate teacher’s didactic practice and student’s performance linkage with the learning styles. The identification model is recommended to check the effective application and evaluation of the various learning styles. The proposed model is a guideline to effectively implement learning styles inventory in order to ensure that it will validate performance linkage with learning styles. If performance is linked with learning styles, this may help eradicate the distrust on learning style theory. For this purpose, a comprehensive study was conducted to compare and understand how VARK inventory model is being used to identify learning preferences and their correlation with learner’s performance. A comparative analysis of the findings of these studies is presented to understand the learning styles of tertiary students in various disciplines. It is concluded with confidence that the learning styles of students cannot be associated with any specific discipline. Furthermore, there is not enough empirical proof to link performance with learning styles.

Keywords: learning style, VARK, sensory preferences, identification model, didactic practices

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Authors: DEVASHISH KHULBE, MANU PATHAK

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The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like spatio-temporal popularity of various cuisines can be analyzed. Tracking the popularity of food types and retail locations across space and time can also be useful for business owners and restaurant investors. In this work, we present an approach using off-the shelf machine learning techniques to identify trends and popularity of cuisine types in an area using geo-tagged data from social media, Google images and Yelp. After adjusting for time, we use the Kernel Density Estimation to get hot spots across the location and model the dependencies among food cuisines popularity using Bayesian Networks. We consider the Manhattan borough of New York City as the location for our analyses but the approach can be used for any area with social media data and information about retail businesses.

Keywords: Web Mining, Geographic Information Systems, Business popularity, Spatial Data Analyses

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

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The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, stick model

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Authors: Qian Zhang, Dongkai Shen, Yan Shi

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A new mechanical ventilator with automatic secretion clearance function can improve the secretion clearance safely and efficiently. However, in recent modeling studies on various mechanical ventilators, it was considered that human had one lung, and the coupling effect of double lungs was never illustrated. In this paper, to expound the coupling effect of double lungs, a mathematical model of a ventilation system of a bi-level positive airway pressure (BiPAP) controlled ventilator with secretion clearance was set up. Moreover, an experimental study about the mechanical ventilation system of double lungs on BiPAP ventilator was conducted to verify the mathematical model. Finally, the coupling effect of double lungs of the mathematical ventilation was studied by simulation and orthogonal experimental design. This paper adds to previous studies and can be referred to optimization methods in medical researches.

Keywords: double lungs, coupling effect, secretion clearance, orthogonal experimental design

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Authors: S. Zolghadri, M. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, F. Abbasi-Davani

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In this study, the absorbed dose of human organs after injection of ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC was studied based on the biodistribution of the complex in adenocarcinoma breast cancer bearing mice. For this purpose, the biodistribution of the radiolabelled complex was studied and compartmental modeling was applied to calculate the absorbed dose with high precision. As expected, ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC illustrated a notable specific uptake in tumor and pancreas, organs with high level of somatostatin receptor on their surface and the effectiveness of the radio-conjugate for targeting of the breast adenocarcinoma tumors was indicated. The elicited results of modeling were the exponential equations, and those are utilized for obtaining the cumulated activity data by taking their integral. The results also exemplified that non-target absorbed-doses such as the liver, spleen and pancreas were approximately 0.008, 0.004, and 0.039, respectively. While these values were so much lower than target (tumor) absorbed-dose, it seems due to this low toxicity, this complex is a good agent for therapy.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu, breast cancer, compartmental modeling, dosimetry

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Authors: Tomas Menard

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The design of control-law for engineering systems has been investigated for many decades. While many results are concerned with continuous systems with continuous output, nowadays, many controlled systems have to transmit their output measurements through network, hence making it discrete-time. But it is well known that the sampling of a system whose control-law is based on the continuous output may render the system unstable, especially when this sampling period is long compared to the system dynamics. The control design then has to be adapted in order to cope with this issue. In this paper, we consider systems which can be modeled as double integrator with uncertainty on the input since many mechanical systems can be put under such form. We present a control scheme based on an observer using only discrete time measurement and which provides continuous time estimation of the state, combined with a continuous control law, which stabilized a system with second-order dynamics even in the presence of uncertainty. It is further shown that arbitrarily long sampling periods can be dealt with properly setting the control scheme parameters.

Keywords: dynamical system, control law design, sampled output, observer design

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Authors: Magdi M. E. Zumrawi, Mohamed Awad

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Determination of Resilient Modulus (M_R) is quite important for characterizing materials in pavement design and evaluation. The main focus of this study is to develop a correlation that predict the resilient modulus of subgrade soils from simple and easy measured soil index properties. To achieve this objective, three subgrade soils representing typical Khartoum soils were selected and tested in the laboratory for measuring resilient modulus. Other basic laboratory tests were conducted on the soils to determine their physical properties. Several soil samples were prepared and compacted at different moisture contents and dry densities and then tested using resilient modulus testing machine. Based on experimental results, linear relationship of M_R with the consistency factor ‘F_c’ which is a combination of dry density, void ratio and consistency index had been developed. The results revealed that very good linear relationship found between the M_R and the consistency factor with a coefficient of linearity (R²) more than 0.9. The consistency factor could be used for the prediction of the M_R of compacted subgrade soils with precise and reliable results.

Keywords: Consistency factor, resilient modulus, subgrade soil, properties

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Authors: Anna Guitart Atienza, Ana Fernández del Río, Madhav Nekkar, Jelena Ljubicic, África Periáñez, Eura Shin, Lauren Bellhouse

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The use of digital devices in healthcare or mobile health (mHealth) has increased in recent years due to the advances in digital technology, making it possible to nudge healthy behaviors through individual interventions. In addition, mHealth is becoming essential in poor-resource settings due to the widespread use of smartphones in areas where access to professional healthcare is limited. In this work, we evaluate mHealth interventions in low-income countries with a focus on causal inference. Counterfactuals estimation and other causal computations are key to determining intervention success and assisting in empirical decision-making. Our main purpose is to personalize treatment recommendations and triage patients at the individual level in order to maximize the entire intervention's impact on the desired outcome. For this study, collected data includes mHealth individual logs from front-line healthcare workers, electronic health records (EHR), and external variables data such as environmental, demographic, and geolocation information.

Keywords: causal inference, mHealth, intervention, personalization

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Authors: Majid Al-Busafi, Alexe Cristina Ioana, Alexe Dan Iulian

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The specific competition and pre-competition stress in professional track and field determined an increasing engagement, from a biological and psychological point of view, of the middle distance and long distance runners, to obtain the top performances that would get them to win in a competition. Under these conditions, if the psychological stress is not properly managed, the negative effects can lead to a total drop in self-confidence, and can affect the value, the talent, and the self-trust, which generates an even higher stress. One of the means at our disposal is the psychological training, specially adapted to the athlete's individual characteristics, to the characteristics of the athletic event, or of the competition. This paper aims to highlight certain original aspects regarding the effects of a specific psychological training program on the mood states characterized by psychological activation, vigor, vitality. The subjects were represented by 12 professional middle distance and long distance runners, subjected to an applicative intervention to which they have participated voluntarily, over the course of 6 months (a competition season). The results indicated that The application of a psychological training program, adapted to the track and field competition system, over a period of time characterized by high competition stress, can determine an increase in the states of vigor and psychological activation, at the same time diminishing those moods that have negative effects on the performance, in the middle distance and long distance running events. This conclusion confirms the hypothesis of this research.

Keywords: competition stress, psychological training, track and field, vigor-activity

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Authors: Riad

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As present world needs more and more energy in a low cost way, it needs to find out the optimal way of power generation. In the sense of low cost, renewable energy is one of the greatest sources of power generation. Water vapour of sea/river/lake can be used for power generation by using the greenhouse effect in a large flat type water chamber floating on the water surface. The water chamber will always be kept half filled. When water evaporates by sunlight, the high pressured gaseous water will be stored in the chamber. By passing through a pipe and by using aerodynamics it can be used for power generation. The water level of the chamber is controlled by some means. As a large amount of water evaporates, an estimation can be highlighted, approximately 3 to 4 thousand gallons of water evaporates from per acre of surface (this amount will be more by greenhouse effect). This large amount of gaseous water can be utilized for power generation by passing through a pipe. This method can be a source of power generation.

Keywords: renewable energy, greenhouse effect, water chamber, water vapour

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Authors: Yasir Khan

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The continued growth in international students coming to China for higher education had a significant positive impact on trade and GDP in China. Student mobility may expend trade with their country of origin, owing to superior knowledge, or preferential access to market opportunities. We test this hypothesis using Chinese trade data from 1999 to 2017. In fully-modify (OLS) and dynamic (OLS) testing estimation, we find that a 1.24 percent increase in student inward mobility is associated with a 1 percent increase in Chinese export trade. On the other hand, we find that a 1.18 percent increase in the student inward mobility to China is associated with a 1 percent increase in import trade. In addition, we find that a 1.13 percent increase in international student inward mobility is associated with a 1 percent increase in the GDP. The outcome suggests that international students have a strong influence on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports and imports trade. However, the study holds that the government should attach great attachment and importance to the role of international students in the export and import trade.

Keywords: international student mobility, China, export, import, GDP, FMOLS, DOLS

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Authors: Sabitha Rahim

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In the context of teaching vocabulary of English as Foreign Language (EFL), the confluence of memory and retention is one of the most significant factors in students' language acquisition. The progress of students engaged in foreign language acquisition is often stymied by vocabulary attrition, which leads to learners' lack of confidence and motivation. However, among other factors, little research has investigated the importance of neuroplasticity in Foreign Language acquisition and how underused neural pathways lead to the loss of plasticity, thereby affecting the learners’ vocabulary retention and motivation. This research explored the effect of enhancing vocabulary acquisition of EFL students in the Foundation Year at King Abdulaziz University through various methods and neuroplasticity exercises that reinforced their attention, motivation, and engagement. It analyzed the results to determine if stimulating the brain of EFL learners by various physical and mental activities led to the improvement in short and long term memory in vocabulary retention. The main data collection methods were student surveys, assessment records of teachers, student achievement test results, and students' follow-up interviews. A key implication of this research is for the institutions to consider having multiple varieties of student activities promoting brain plasticity within the classrooms as an effective tool for foreign language acquisition. Building awareness among the faculty and adapting the curriculum to include activities that promote brain plasticity ensures an enhanced learning environment and effective language acquisition in EFL classrooms.

Keywords: language acquisition, neural paths, neuroplasticity, vocabulary attrition

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Authors: G. N. Tiwari, Shyam

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Photovoltaic thermal (PVT) roof type greenhouse dryer installed above the wind tower of SODHA BERS COMPLEX, Varanasi has been analyzed for all types of weather conditions. The product to be dried has been kept at three different trays. The upper tray receives energy from the PV cover while the bottom tray receives thermal energy from the hot air of the wind tower. The annual energy estimation has been done for the all types of weather condition of composite climate of northern India. It has been found that maximum energy saving is observed for c type of weather condition whereas minimum energy saving is observed for a type of weather condition. The energy saving on overall thermal energy basis and exergy basis are 1206.8 kWh and 360 kWh respectively for c type of weather condition. The energy saving from all types of weather condition are found to be 3175.3 kWh and 957.6 kWh on overall thermal energy and overall exergy basis respectively.

Keywords: exergy, greenhouse, photovoltaic thermal, solar dryer

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Authors: Nicole Merkle, Stefan Zander

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Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) describes a technological and methodological stack of (e.g. formal model-theoretic semantics, rule-based reasoning and machine learning), different aspects regarding the behavior, activities and characteristics of humans. Hence, a semantic representation of the user environment and its relevant elements are required in order to allow assistive agents to recognize situations and deduce appropriate actions. Furthermore, the user and his/her characteristics (e.g. physical, cognitive, preferences) need to be represented with a high degree of expressiveness in order to allow software agents a precise evaluation of the users’ context models. The correct interpretation of these context models highly depends on temporal, spatial circumstances as well as individual user preferences. In most AAL approaches, model representations of real world situations represent the current state of a universe of discourse at a given point in time by neglecting transitions between a set of states. However, the AAL domain currently lacks sufficient approaches that contemplate on the dynamic adaptions of context-related representations. Semantic representations of relevant real-world excerpts (e.g. user activities) help cognitive, rule-based agents to reason and make decisions in order to help users in appropriate tasks and situations. Furthermore, rules and reasoning on semantic models are not sufficient for handling uncertainty and fuzzy situations. A certain situation can require different (re-)actions in order to achieve the best results with respect to the user and his/her needs. But what is the best result? To answer this question, we need to consider that every smart agent requires to achieve an objective, but this objective is mostly defined by domain experts who can also fail in their estimation of what is desired by the user and what not. Hence, a smart agent has to be able to learn from context history data and estimate or predict what is most likely in certain contexts. Furthermore, different agents with contrary objectives can cause collisions as their actions influence the user’s context and constituting conditions in unintended or uncontrolled ways. We present an approach for dynamically updating a semantic model with respect to the current user context that allows flexibility of the software agents and enhances their conformance in order to improve the user experience. The presented approach adapts rules by learning sensor evidence and user actions using probabilistic reasoning approaches, based on given expert knowledge. The semantic domain model consists basically of device-, service- and user profile representations. In this paper, we present how this semantic domain model can be used in order to compute the probability of matching rules and actions. We apply this probability estimation to compare the current domain model representation with the computed one in order to adapt the formal semantic representation. Our approach aims at minimizing the likelihood of unintended interferences in order to eliminate conflicts and unpredictable side-effects by updating pre-defined expert knowledge according to the most probable context representation. This enables agents to adapt to dynamic changes in the environment which enhances the provision of adequate assistance and affects positively the user satisfaction.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, machine learning, semantic web, software agents

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Authors: Amanda Madden

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The purpose of this research was to identify students understanding of well-being and perceptions of the effective components of school-based well-being programs they have participated in during their time in secondary school. With one in four adolescents suffering from some form of mental health disorder, which has the potential to directly impact their academic ability, schools have moved towards a more holistic approach to education, resulting in the growth of school-based well-being programs. There is limited research on the effectiveness of school-based well-being programs, with fewer studies examining students’ perspectives on their well-being. A mixed-method design was utilized, framed by a social constructivist methodology. Quantitative data was collected through a researcher-developed self-report survey, and qualitative data were collected through one-on-one interviews and a semi-structured focus group undertaken with Year 12 students from three independent co-educational schools in Western Australia. Preliminary findings indicate that participants have experienced a minimal impact, either positively or negatively, on their well-being from school-based well-being programs. The data detailed that adolescents consider happiness, positive attitude, good physical health, balance, emotional fulfillment and confidence components of well-being. The findings also highlighted sports, positive family relationships, positive friendships, and pets positively enhanced well-being. This research suggests that researchers and educational leaders should consider students’ understanding of well-being in the development of school-based well-being assessments and interventions. Students are the recipients of school-based well-being programs and are best placed to inform what they will and will not respond to in the determination of appropriate well-being content.

Keywords: wellbeing, school based wellbeing, adolescents, wellbeing interventions

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Authors: Berihun Dachew, Abdullah Mamun, Joemer Maravilla, Rosa Alati

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Background: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are a major cause of maternal and childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, its effect on offspring mental and behavioural disorders is unclear. Aims:The aim of this study was to provide the best scientific evidence regarding the association between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and offspring mental and behavioural problems. Methods: We systematically searched Scopus, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE, CINAH and PsycINFO databases. A total of 23 studies (11 included in meta-analysis) were identified. A qualitative analysis was conducted by summarizing, comparing, and contrasting the abstracted data for all included studies. For quantitative analysis, relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was used as pooled effect size. Heterogeneity was assessed by measuring Cochran’s Q and I2 test statistics. Results: Of the 23 studies included in this review, 15 studies found that hypertensive disorders of pregnancy had a negative impact for at least one mental or behavioural problem. The pooled effect of 11 studies included in the meta-analysis showed that preeclampsia was associated with increased risk of offspring schizophrenia (RR=1.37; 95% CI, 1.08-1.72). Conclusions: Intrauterine exposure to pre-eclampsia increased the risk of schizophrenia among offspring. However, we found inconclusive finding on the effect of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and other mental and behavioural problems. Further high quality, large sample, mother child cohort studies are needed to further progress this area of research.

Keywords: behavioural disorders, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, mental disorders, offspring

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Authors: Harisudha Kuresan, Dhanalakshmi Samiappan, T. Rama Rao

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In modern telecommunication applications, Glottal Closure Instants location finding is important and is directly evaluated from the speech waveform. Here, we study the GCI using Speech Event Detection using Residual Excitation and the Mean Based Signal (SEDREAMS) algorithm. Speech coding uses parameter estimation using audio signal processing techniques to model the speech signal combined with generic data compression algorithms to represent the resulting modeled in a compact bit stream. This paper proposes a sub-band coder SBC, which is a type of transform coding and its performance for GCI detection using SEDREAMS are evaluated. In SBCs code in the speech signal is divided into two or more frequency bands and each of these sub-band signal is coded individually. The sub-bands after being processed are recombined to form the output signal, whose bandwidth covers the whole frequency spectrum. Then the signal is decomposed into low and high-frequency components and decimation and interpolation in frequency domain are performed. The proposed structure significantly reduces error, and precise locations of Glottal Closure Instants (GCIs) are found using SEDREAMS algorithm.

Keywords: SEDREAMS, GCI, SBC, GOI

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Authors: Mohammad Tahir Yousafzai, Nighat Nisar, Rehana Khalil

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The aim of this study is to assess the practices of sharp injuries and factors leading to it among medical practitioners in slum areas of Karachi, Pakistan. A cross sectional study was conducted in slum areas of Landhi Town Karachi. All medical practitioners (317) running the private clinics in the areas were asked to participate in the study. Data was collected on self administered pre-tested structured questionnaires. The frequency with percentage and 95% confidence interval was calculated for at least one sharp injury (SI) in the last one year. The factors leading to sharp injuries were assessed using multiple logistic regressions. About 80% of private medical practitioners consented to participate. Among these 87% were males and 13% were female. The mean age was 38±11 years and mean work experience was 12±9 years. The frequency of at least one sharp injury in the last one year was 27%(95% CI: 22.2-32). Almost 47% of Sharp Injuries were caused by needle recapping, less work experience, less than 14 years of schooling, more than 20 patients per day, administering more than 30 injections per day, reuse of syringes and needle recapping after use were significantly associated with sharp injuries. Injection practices were found inadequate among private medical practitioners in slum areas of Karachi, and the frequency of Sharp Injuries was found high in these areas. There is a risk of occupational transmission of blood borne infections among medical practitioners warranting an urgent need for launching awareness and training on standard precautions for private medical practitioners in the slum areas of Karachi.

Keywords: injection practices, private practitioners, sharp injuries, blood borne infections

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Authors: Mohd Khairezan Rahmat

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Since the impetus of becoming a develop country by the year 2020, the Malaysian government have been proactive in strengthening the integration of ICT into the national educational system. Teacher-education programs have the responsibility to prepare the nation future teachers by instilling in them the desire, confidence, and ability to fully utilized the potential of ICT into their instruction process. In an effort to fulfill this responsibility, teacher-education program are beginning to create alternatives means for preparing cutting-edge teachers. One of the alternatives is the student’s learning portal. In line with this mission, this study investigates the Faculty of Education, University Teknologi MARA (UiTM) pre-service teachers’ perception of usefulness, attitude, and ability toward the usage of the university learning portal, known as iLearn. The study also aimed to predict factors that might hinder the pre-service teachers’ decision to used iLearn as their platform in learning. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), was employed in analyzed the survey data. The suggested findings informed that pre-service teacher’s successful integration of the iLearn was highly influenced by their perception of usefulness of the system. The findings also suggested that the more familiar the pre-service teacher with the iLearn, the more possibility they will use the system. In light of similar study, the present findings hope to highlight the important to understand the user’s perception toward any proposed technology.

Keywords: e-learning, prediction factors, pre-service teacher, structural equation modeling (SEM)

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Authors: Jerico M. Consolacion, Maria Cynthia R. Oliveros

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The Philippine White Mallard duck was compared with Pekin duck for potential meat production. A total of 50 ducklings were randomly assigned to five (5) pens per treatment after one month of brooding. Each pen containing five (5) ducks was considered as a replicate. The ducks were raised until 12 weeks of age and slaughtered at the end of the growing period. Meat from both breeds was analyzed. The data were subjected to the Independent-Sample T-test at 5% level of confidence. Results showed that post-mortem pH (0, 20 minutes, 50 minutes, 1 hour and 20 minutes, 1 hour and 50 minutes, and 24 hours ) did not differ significantly (P>0.05) between breeds. However, Pekin ducks (89.84±0.71) had a significantly higher water-holding capacity than Philippine White Mallard ducks (87.93±0.63) (P<0.05). Also, meat color (CIE L, a, b) revealed that no significant differences among the lightness, redness, and yellowness of the skin (breast) in both breeds (P>0.05) except for the yellowness of the lean muscles of the Pekin duck breast. Pekin duck meat (1.15±0.04) had significantly higher crude fat content than Philippine White Mallard (0.47±0.58). The study clearly showed that breed is a factor and provided some pronounced effects among the parameters. However, these results are considered as preliminary information on the meat quality of Philippine White Mallard duck. Hence, further studies are needed to understand and fully utilize it for meat production and develop different meat products from this breed.

Keywords: crude fat, meat color, meat pH, water-holding capacity

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Authors: Harshith Gowda K. S, Tejaskumar N, Shubhanga R. B, Gowtham N, Deekshith Gowda H. S

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Phasor measurement units (PMU) are playing an important role in the current power system for state estimation. It is necessary to have complete observability of the power system while minimizing the cost. For this purpose, the optimal location of the phasor measurement units in the power system is essential. In a bus system, zero injection buses need to be evaluated to minimize the number of PMUs. In this paper, the optimization problem is formulated using mixed integer programming to obtain the optimal location of the PMUs with increased observability. The formulation consists of with and without zero injection bus as constraints. The formulated problem is simulated using a CPLEX solver in the GAMS software package. The proposed method is tested on IEEE 30, IEEE 39, IEEE 57, and IEEE 118 bus systems. The results obtained show that the number of PMUs required is minimal with increased observability.

Keywords: PMU, observability, mixed integer programming (MIP), zero injection buses (ZIB)

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Authors: Riktesh Srivastava

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Online Shopping have established an astonishing evolution in the last few years. And it is now apparent that B2C architecture is becoming progressively imperative channel for even traditional brick and mortar type traders as well. In this completion knowing customers and predicting behavior are extremely important. More important, when any customer logs onto the B2C architecture, the traces of their buying patterns can be stored and used for future predictions. Such a prediction is called Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). Earlier, we used Net Present Value to do so, however, it ignores two important aspects of B2C architecture, “market risks” and “big amount of customer data”. Now, we use RFM- Recency, Frequency and Monetary Value to estimate the CLV, and as the term exemplifies, market risks, is well sheltered. Big Data Analysis is also roofed in RFM, which gives real exploration of the Big Data and lead to a better estimation for future cash flow from customers. In the present paper, 6 factors (collected from varied sources) are used to determine as to what attracts the customers to the B2C architecture. For these 6 factors, RFM is computed for 3 years (2013, 2014 and 2015) respectively. CLV and Revenue are the two parameters defined using RFM analysis, which gives the clear picture of the future predictions.

Keywords: CLV, RFM, revenue, recency, frequency, monetary value

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Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

Abstract:

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.

Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance

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Authors: Yu Liang, Wei Wei

Abstract:

Spatial representation of numbers and numerical magnitude are important for preschoolers’ mathematical ability. Mental number line, a typical index to measure numbers spatial representation, and numerical comparison are both related to arithmetic obviously. However, they seem to rely on different mechanisms and probably influence arithmetic through different mechanisms. In line with this idea, preschool children were trained with two tasks to investigate which one is more important for approximate arithmetic. The training of numerical processing and number line estimation were proved to be effective. They both improved the ability of approximate arithmetic. When the difficulty of approximate arithmetic was taken into account, the performance in number line training group was not significantly different among three levels. However, two harder levels achieved significance in numerical comparison training group. Thus, comparing spatial representation ability, symbolic approximation arithmetic relies more on numerical magnitude. Educational implications of the study were discussed.

Keywords: approximate arithmetic, mental number line, numerical magnitude, preschooler

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Authors: Christine O. Wangia, Jennifer A. Orwa, Francis W. Muregi, Patrick G. Kareru, Kipyegon Cheruiyot, Eric Guantai

Abstract:

Ruellia (syn. Dipteracanthus) species are wild perennial creepers belonging to the Acanthaceae family. These species are reported to possess anti-inflammatory, analgesic, antioxidant, gastroprotective, anticancer, and immuno-stimulant properties. Phytochemical screening of both aqueous and methanolic extracts of Ruellia species revealed the presence of saponins. Saponins have been reported to possess anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, immuno-stimulant, antihepatotoxic, antibacterial, anticarcinogenic, and antiulcerogenic activities. The objective of this study was to quantify and analyze the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra of saponins in crude extracts of three Kenyan Ruellia species namely Ruellia prostrata (RPM), Ruellia lineari-bracteolata (RLB) and Ruellia bignoniiflora (RBK). Sequential organic extraction of the ground whole plant material was done using petroleum ether (PE), chloroform, ethyl acetate (EtOAc), and absolute methanol by cold maceration, while aqueous extraction was by hot maceration. The plant powders and extracts were mixed with spectroscopic grade KBr and compressed into a pellet. The infrared spectra were recorded using a Shimadzu FTIR spectrophotometer of 8000 series in the range of 3500 cm^-1 - 500 cm^-1. Quantitative determination of the saponins was done using standard procedures. Quantitative analysis of saponins showed that RPM had the highest quantity of crude saponins (2.05% ± 0.03), followed by RLB (1.4% ± 0.15) and RBK (1.25% ± 0.11), respectively. FTIR spectra revealed the spectral peaks characteristic for saponins in RPM, RLB, and RBK plant powders, aqueous and methanol extracts; O-H absorption (3265 - 3393 cm^-1), C-H absorption ranging from 2851 to 2924 cm^-1, C=C absorbance (1628 - 1655 cm^-1), oligosaccharide linkage (C-O-C) absorption due to sapogenins (1036 - 1042 cm^-1). The crude saponins from RPM, RLB and RBK showed similar peaks to their respective extracts. The presence of the saponins in extracts of RPM, RLB and RBK may be responsible for some of the biological activities reported in the Ruellia species.1

Keywords: Ruellia bignoniiflora, Ruellia linearibracteolata, Ruellia prostrata, Saponins

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Malika Kharouf, Aly Chkeir, Khac Tuan Huynh

Abstract:

Detecting change points in time series data is a challenging problem, especially in scenarios where there is limited prior knowledge regarding the data’s distribution and the nature of the transitions. We present a method designed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of high-dimensional time series data, where the number of variables closely matches the data length. Our objective is to achieve unbiased test statistic estimation under the null hypothesis. We delve into the utilization of Random Matrix Theory to analyze the behavior of our test statistic within a high-dimensional context. Specifically, we illustrate that our test statistic converges pointwise to a normal distribution under the null hypothesis. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed approach, we conduct evaluations on a simulated dataset. Furthermore, we employ our method to examine changes aimed at detecting frailty in the elderly.

Keywords: change point detection, hypothesis tests, random matrix theory, frailty in elderly

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: A. S. Haruna, M. U. Tambawal, A. A. Salawu

Abstract:

The psychological impact of peer influence on its individual group members, can make them resist HIV/AIDS counselling and testing. This study investigated the correlate of peer influence and resistance to HIV/AIDS counselling and testing among students in tertiary institutions in Kano state, Nigeria. To achieve this, three null hypotheses were postulated and tested. Cross-Sectional Survey Design was employed in which 1512 sample was selected from a student population of 104,841.Simple Random Sampling was used in the selection. A self-developed 20-item scale called Peer Influence and Psychological Resistance Inventory (PIPRI) was used for data collection. Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMCC) via test-retest method was applied to estimate a reliability coefficient of 0.86 for the scale. Data obtained was analyzed using t-test and PPMCC at 0.05 level of confidence. Results reveal 26.3% (397) of the respondents being influenced by their peer group, while 39.8% showed resistance. Also, the t-tests and PPMCC statistics were greater than their respective critical values. This shows that there was a significant gender difference in peer influence and a difference between peer influence and resistance to HIV/AIDS counselling and testing. However, a positive relationship between peer influence and resistance to HIV/AIDS counselling and testing was shown. A major recommendation offered suggests the use of reinforcement and social support for positive attitudes and maintenance of safe behaviour among students who patronize HIV/AIDS counselling.

Keywords: peer group influence, HIV/AIDS counselling and testing, psychological resistance, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 391