Search results for: climate change risk perception

Authors: Esther Ushike Akashie

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No matter who you are, where you are from and irrespective of age and gender, there is a universal need for power and energy. Every year, this need grows even more urgent the more scientific and technological inventions advance. Due to this fact, we find that majority of the research related to energy and power has been focused on finding new and innovative ways to produce power. Furthermore, we observe that because of the environmental state of our world today and the impact of climate change, one of the most explored routes of study has been the use of renewable energies. In this paper, we will be looking at one of the oldest forms of renewable energy, hydroelectric energy. First off, an overview of its history, sources, technical aspects, and applications will be evaluated. After which, we will then proceed to understand the main benefits and drawbacks of this form of renewable energy and offer insights on how it can be better utilized in our world today.

Keywords: hydropower, hydroelectric energy, advantages, disadvantages

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Authors: Ibrahim Alreshidi, Aseel Albrekeit, Ruaa Alharthi

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Background: As a result of the spread of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020, many governments, including Saudi Arabia, have suspended operations in many agencies. Most dermatologists have restricted their practice, including cosmetic procedures, to ensure social distancing. On the 7th of May 2020, Saudi authorities reduced the restriction of COVID-19 virus preventative measures, allowing clinics to start accepting patients following the ministry of health protocols. Objectives: Evaluation of the public's perception and willingness to undergo cosmetic procedures during COVID-19 outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. Materials and methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study was carried out among the individuals who lack typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection in Saudi Arabia. A self-designed web-based questionnaire was developed; content face validity and a pilot study were done. The questionnaire was distributed electronically from the 8th of May until the 31st of May 2020. Results: A total of 656 individuals who lack typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection were included in this analysis. Only 10.5% of participants expressed their will to do cosmetic procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 90% of the participants believed that the COVID-19 pandemic was either somewhat serious (52.9%) or very serious (38.7%). The willingness to do cosmetic procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic remained unaltered when the price was discounted (p<0.001) and when infection control measures were ensured (p<0.001). Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the practice of cosmetic dermatology. Fear of transferring the infection to a beloved home member is the main reason to avoid these procedures. Generating well-structured safety guidelines to decrease the risk of this unusual virus transmission in dermatology practice and creating financial incentives may help increase the public willingness to do these cosmetic procedures during this pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, cosmetic procedures, questionnaire, dermatology

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Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

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Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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Authors: Aydin Azizi, Abdurrahman Tanira

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With the onset of climate change and limited fuel resources, improving fuel efficiency has become an important part of the motor industry. To maximize fuel efficiency, development of technologies must come hand-in-hand with awareness of efficient driving strategies. This study aims to explore the various driving habits that can impact fuel efficiency by reviewing available literature. Such habits include sudden and unnecessary acceleration or deceleration, improper hardware maintenance, driving above or below optimum speed and idling. By studying such habits and ultimately applying it to driving techniques, in combination with improved mechanics of the car, will optimize the use of fuel.

Keywords: fuel efficiency, driving techniques, optimum speed, optimizing fuel consumption

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Sachin, Shantanu Arya, Gunjan Mehta, Md. Shamim Ansari

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The cross-modal influence of visual information on speech perception can be illustrated by the McGurk effect which is an illusion of hearing of syllable /ta/ when a listener listens one syllable, e.g.: /pa/ while watching a synchronized video recording of syllable, /ka/. The McGurk effect is an excellent tool to investigate multisensory integration in speech perception in both normal hearing and hearing impaired populations. As the visual cue is unaffected by noise, individuals with hearing impairment rely more than normal listeners on the visual cues.However, when non congruent visual and auditory cues are processed together, audiovisual interaction seems to occur differently in normal and persons with hearing impairment. Therefore, this study aims to observe the audiovisual interaction in speech perception in Cochlear Implant users compares the same with normal hearing children. Auditory stimuli was routed through calibrated Clinical audiometer in sound field condition, and visual stimuli were presented on laptop screen placed at a distance of 1m at 0 degree azimuth. Out of 4 presentations, if 3 responses were a fusion, then McGurk effect was considered to be present. The congruent audiovisual stimuli /pa/ /pa/ and /ka/ /ka/ were perceived correctly as ‘‘pa’’ and ‘‘ka,’’ respectively by both the groups. For the non- congruent stimuli /da/ /pa/, 23 children out of 35 with normal hearing and 9 children out of 35 with cochlear implant had a fusion of sounds i.e. McGurk effect was present. For the non-congruent stimulus /pa/ /ka/, 25 children out of 35 with normal hearing and 8 children out of 35 with cochlear implant had fusion of sounds.The children who used cochlear implants for less than three years did not exhibit fusion of sound i.e. McGurk effect was absent in this group of children. To conclude, the results demonstrate that consistent fusion of visual with auditory information for speech perception is shaped by experience with bimodal spoken language during early life. When auditory experience with speech is mediated by cochlear implant, the likelihood of acquiring bimodal fusion is increased and it greatly depends on the age of implantation. All the above results strongly support the need for screening children for hearing capabilities and providing cochlear implants and aural rehabilitation as early as possible.

Keywords: cochlear implant, congruent stimuli, mcgurk effect, non-congruent stimuli

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Authors: Duygu Dere, Mert Ergeneci, Kaan Gokcesu

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Google Trends data has gained increasing popularity in the applications of behavioral finance, decision science and risk management. Because of Google’s wide range of use, the Trends statistics provide significant information about the investor sentiment and intention, which can be used as decisive factors for corporate and risk management fields. However, an anomaly, a significant increase or decrease, in a certain query cannot be detected by the state of the art applications of computation due to the random baseline noise of the Trends data, which is modelled as an Additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Since through time, the baseline noise power shows a gradual change an adaptive thresholding method is required to track and learn the baseline noise for a correct classification. To this end, we introduce an online method to classify meaningful deviations in Google Trends data. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method can successfully classify various anomalies for plenty of different data.

Keywords: adaptive data processing, behavioral finance , convex optimization, online learning, soft minimum thresholding

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Shoufeng Cao, Kim Bryceson, Damian Hine

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The existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) research is currently chaotic and somewhat disorganized, and the topic has been addressed conceptually more often than empirically. This paper, using both qualitative and quantitative data, employs a modified Meta-study method to investigate the SCRM empirical research published in quality journals over the period of 12 years (2004-2015). The purpose is to outline the extent research trends and the employed research methodologies (i.e., research method, data collection and data analysis) across the sub-field that will guide future research. The synthesized findings indicate that empirical study on risk ripple effect along an entire supply chain, industry-specific supply chain risk management and global/export supply chain risk management has not yet given much attention than it deserves in the SCRM field. Besides, it is suggested that future empirical research should employ multiple and/or mixed methods and multi-source data collection techniques to reduce common method bias and single-source bias, thus improving research validity and reliability. In conclusion, this paper helps to stimulate more quality empirical research in the SCRM field via identifying promising research directions and providing some methodology guidelines.

Keywords: empirical research, meta-study, methodology guideline, research direction, supply chain risk management

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Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

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It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

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Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Igor Medved, Anton Trnik, Libor Vozar

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Phase-change materials (PCMs) are of great interest in the applications where a temperature level needs to be maintained and/or where there is demand for thermal energy storage. Examples are storage of solar energy, cold, and space heating/cooling of buildings. During a phase change, the enthalpy vs. temperature plot of PCMs shows a jump and there is a distinct peak in the heat capacity plot. We present a theoretical description from which these jumps and peaks can be obtained. We apply our theoretical results to fit experimental data with very good accuracy for selected materials and changes between two phases. The development is based on the observation that PCMs are polycrystalline; i.e., composed of many single-crystalline grains. The enthalpy and heat capacity are thus interpreted as averages of the contributions from the individual grains. We also show how to determine the baseline and excess part of the heat capacity and thus the latent heat corresponding to the phase change.

Keywords: averaging, enthalpy jump, heat capacity peak, phase change

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Authors: Heping Wang

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Social interaction has increased as a result of rapid economic expansion. Particularly in China, gift exchanges have developed into a social tradition of showing gratitude. Most gifts, on the other hand, are lavishly presented or overpacked to impress or demonstrate respect to the gift receiver. Overpackaging wastes enormous resources and produces a lot of municipal solid waste (MSW), which can seriously harm the environment if it is not handled properly. The purpose of this study is to investigate consumers' perceptions, preferences, and perspectives regarding gifts overpackaging in order to identify potential solutions for reducing gifts overpackaging to achieve sustainable packaging objectives. The research was conducted by means of an online survey focusing on residents in Shanghai, China, and the data was quantitatively analyzed by SPSS software. According to research, consumers' perception of excessive packaging is approximately 3.5 points out of 5, and this perception has a significant impact on consumers' behavioral intentions; The preferences of givers and receivers for gift packaging are significantly different in three aspects; Customers prefer incentives for eco-packaging when it comes to measures to reduce gift overpackaging. Finally, the study also identifies suitable gift packaging options for customers.

Keywords: gift packaging, consumer perception, consumer preference, consumer perspective, overpackaging, solutions

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Authors: Raana Babadi Fathipour

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Over the past decades, the climatic CO2 concentration and worldwide normal temperature have been expanding, and this drift is anticipated to before long gotten to be more extreme. This situation of climate alter escalate abiotic stretch components (such as dry spell, flooding, saltiness, and bright radiation) that debilitate timberland and related environments as well as trim generation. These variables can contrarily influence plant development and advancement with a ensuing lessening in plant biomass aggregation and surrender, in expansion to expanding plant defenselessness to biotic stresses. As of late, biostimulants have ended up a hotspot as an viable and economical elective to reduce the negative impacts of stresses on plants. In any case, the larger part of biostimulants has destitute solidness beneath natural conditions, which leads to untimely debasement, shortening their organic movement. To unravel these bottlenecks, small scale- and nano-based definitions containing biostimulant atoms and/or microorganisms are picking up consideration as they illustrate a few points of interest over their routine details. In this survey, we center on the embodiment of plant development controllers and plant acquainted microorganisms as a technique to boost their application for plant assurance against abiotic stresses. We moreover address the potential restrictions and challenges confronted for the execution of this innovation, as well as conceivable outcomes with respect to future inquire about.

Keywords: bio stimulants, Seed priming, nano biotechnology, plant growth-promoting, rhizobacteria, plant growth regulators, microencapsulation

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Authors: Farnoosh Faal

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Institutional and organizational change in social housing organizations can have a significant impact on both the organizations themselves and their stakeholders. This paper provides an overview of the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organizations and their stakeholders, including tenants, employees, and other community members. The paper examines the different types of institutional and organizational change that can occur in social housing organizations, such as changes in management structure, funding models, and service delivery methods. It also explores the potential benefits and drawbacks of these changes, including changes in efficiency, service quality, and tenant satisfaction. The paper further discusses the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organization stakeholders, including the effects on employee morale, tenant engagement, and community relationships. The paper highlights the importance of effective stakeholder engagement and communication in ensuring a smooth transition to new organizational models and systems. Finally, the paper discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by institutional and organizational change in social housing organizations and provides recommendations for organizations looking to navigate these changes successfully. These recommendations include prioritizing stakeholder engagement, investing in staff training and development, and maintaining a focus on the needs and priorities of tenants and communities. Overall, this paper emphasizes the importance of considering the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organizations and their stakeholders and highlights strategies for managing these changes in a way that maximizes benefits and minimizes negative impacts.

Keywords: social housing organizations, stakeholder engagement, institutional change, challenges, opportunities

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Vipulkumar Jagodana

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Recently the use of renewable sources has increased, these sources include fuel cell, photo voltaic, and wind turbine. Islanding occurs when one portion of grid is isolated from remaining grid. Use of the renewable sources can provide continuous power to isolated portion in islanding condition. One of the common renewable sources is wind generation using wind turbine. The efficiency of wind generation can be increased in combination with conventional sources. When islanding occurs, few parameters change which may be frequency, voltage, active power, and harmonics. According to large change in one of these parameters islanding is detected. In this paper, two passive methods Rate of Change of Frequency (ROCOF) and Rate of change of Power (ROCOP) have been implemented for islanding detection of small wind-turbine. Islanding detection of both methods have been simulated in PSCAD. Simulation results show at different islanding inception angle response of ROCOF and ROCOP.

Keywords: islanding, adopted methods, PSCAD simulation, comparison

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Giulia I. Pintea

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The Roma people are a nomadic ethnic group native to India, and they are one of the most prevalent minorities in Europe. In the past, Roma were enslaved and they were imprisoned in concentration camps during the Holocaust; today, Roma are subject to hate crimes and are denied access to healthcare, education, and proper housing. The aim of this project is to analyze how the public perception of the Roma people may be influenced by antiziganist and pro-Roma institutions in Europe. In order to carry out this project, we used social network analysis to build two large social networks: The antiziganist network, which is composed of institutions that oppress and racialize Roma, and the pro-Roma network, which is composed of institutions that advocate for and protect Roma rights. Measures of centrality, density, and modularity were obtained to determine which of the two social networks is exerting the greatest influence on the public’s perception of Roma in European societies. Furthermore, data on hate crimes on Roma were gathered from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). We analyzed the trends in hate crimes on Roma for several European countries for 2009-2015 in order to see whether or not there have been changes in the public’s perception of Roma, thus helping us evaluate which of the two social networks has been more influential. Overall, the results suggest that there is a greater and faster exchange of information in the pro-Roma network. However, when taking the hate crimes into account, the impact of the pro-Roma institutions is ambiguous, due to differing patterns among European countries, suggesting that the impact of the pro-Roma network is inconsistent. Despite antiziganist institutions having a slower flow of information, the hate crime patterns also suggest that the antiziganist network has a higher impact on certain countries, which may be due to institutions outside the political sphere boosting the spread of antiziganist ideas and information to the European public.

Keywords: applied mathematics, oppression, Roma people, social network analysis

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Jonas Palmer, Leon Brüning, Lukas Himmelsbach

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The worldwide ambitions to transform the transportation sector are increasingly affecting the safety conditions for all traffic participants and the required infrastructure. To contribute to the transformation and for health aspects, individuals search for carbon-free alternatives that include physical excitation. Especially e-bikes experience a growing demand within the last few years and consequently change the safety requirements. E-cyclists are exposed to amplified risks due to higher velocity in comparison to classic cyclists. Furthermore, cyclists suffer from a lack of infrastructure, rider assistance systems as well as awareness of other road users. For minimizing the risk of accidents, it is crucial to identify, develop and implement safety measures for cyclists. The paper aims to contribute to future research with delivering an overview of the latest publications and to subsequently identify essential research gaps. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the areas of technical adjustments as well as legal aspects and the correlation of both. The review`s insights can intensify the awareness of safety issues related to e-bikes and promote the development and implementation of appropriate measures.

Keywords: e-bike safety measures, future mobility, risk management, road safety

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Authors: Khosro Shafie Motlaghi, Amir Reza Salemian

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In arid and semi-arid regions like our country Evapotranspiration is the greatestportion of water resource. Therefor knowlege of its changing and other climate parameters plays an important role for planning, development, and management of water resource. In this search the Trend of long changing of Evapotranspiration (ET0), average temprature, monthly rainfall were tested. To dose, all synoptic station s in iran were divided according to the climate with Domarton climate. The present research was done in semi-arid climate of Iran, and in which 14 synoptic with 30 years period of statistics were investigated with 3 methods of minimum square error, Mann Kendoll, and Vald-Volfoytz Evapotranspiration was calculated by using the method of FAO-Penman. The results of investigation in periods of statistic has shown that the process Evapotranspiration parameter of 24 percent of stations is positive, and for 2 percent is negative, and for 47 percent. It was without any Trend. Similary for 22 percent of stations was positive the Trend of parameter of temperature for 19 percent , the trend was negative and for 64 percent, it was without any Trend. The results of rainfall trend has shown that the amount of rainfall in most stations was not considered as a meaningful trend. The result of Mann-kendoll method similar to minimum square error method. regarding the acquired result was can admit that in future years Some regions will face increase of temperature and Evapotranspiration.

Keywords: analysis, algorithm, SANN, ET0

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Authors: Solange Adechian, Michèle Balage, Didier Remond, Carole Migné, Annie Quignard-Boulangé, Agnès Marset-Baglieri, Sylvie Rousset, Yves Boirie, Claire Gaudichon, Dominique Dardevet, Laurent Mosoni

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Studies have shown that timing of protein intake, leucine content, and speed of digestion significantly affect postprandial protein utilization. Our aim was to determine if one can spare lean body mass during energy restriction by varying the quality and the timing of protein intake. Obese volunteers followed a 6-wk restricted energy diet. Four groups were compared: casein pulse, casein spread, milk-soluble protein (MSP, = whey) pulse, and MSP spread (n = 10-11 per group). In casein groups, caseins were the only protein source; it was MSP in MSP groups. Proteins were distributed in four meals per day in the proportion 8:80:4:8% in the pulse groups; it was 25:25:25:25% in the spread groups. We measured weight, body composition, nitrogen balance, 3-methylhistidine excretion, perception of hunger, plasma parameters, adipose tissue metabolism, and whole body protein metabolism. Volunteers lost 7.5 ± 0.4 kg of weight, 5.1 ± 0.2 kg of fat, and 2.2 ± 0.2 kg of lean mass, with no difference between groups. In adipose tissue, cell size and mRNA expression of various genes were reduced with no difference between groups. Hunger perception was also never different between groups. In the last week, due to a higher inhibition of protein degradation and despite a lower stimulation of protein synthesis, postprandial balance between whole body protein synthesis and degradation was better with caseins than with MSP. It seems likely that the positive effect of caseins on protein balance occurred only at the end of the experiment.

Keywords: lean body mass, fat mass, casein, whey, protein metabolism

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Authors: Sherif Sabri, Suzy Fawzi, Sanaa Abdelshafy, Ayman Nagah

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Introduction: Static derangements in lactate homeostasis during ICU stay have become established as a clinically useful marker of increased risk of hospital and ICU mortality. Lactate indices or kinetic alteration of the anaerobic metabolism make it a potential parameter to evaluate disease severity and intervention adequacy. This is an inexpensive and simple clinical parameter that can be obtained by a minimally invasive means. Aim of work: Comparing the predictive value of dynamic indices of hyperlactatemia in the first twenty four hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with other static values are more commonly used. Patients and Methods: This study included 40 critically ill patients above 18 years old of both sexes with Hyperlactamia (≥ 2 m mol/L). Patients were divided into septic group (n=20) and low oxygen transport group (n=20), which include all causes of low-O2. Six lactate indices specifically relating to the first 24 hours of ICU admission were considered, three static indices and three dynamic indices. Results: There were no statistically significant differences among the two groups regarding age, most of the laboratory results including ABG and the need for mechanical ventilation. Admission lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group [37.5±11.4 versus 30.6±7.8 P-value 0.034]. Maximum lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group P-value (0.044). On the other hand absolute lactate (mg) was higher in septic group P-value (< 0.001). Percentage change of lactate was higher in the septic group (47.8±11.3) than the low-oxygen transport group (26.1±12.6) with highly significant P-value (< 0.001). Lastly, time weighted lactate was higher in the low-oxygen transport group (1.72±0.81) than the septic group (1.05±0.8) with significant P-value (0.012). There were statistically significant differences regarding lactate indices in survivors and non survivors, whether in septic or low-oxygen transport group. Conclusion: In critically ill patients, time weighted lactate and percent in lactate change in the first 24 hours can be an independent predictive factor in ICU mortality. Also, a rising compared to a falling blood lactate concentration over the first 24 hours can be associated with significant increase in the risk of mortality.

Keywords: critically ill patients, lactate indices, mortality in intensive care, anaerobic metabolism

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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Construction industry, as one of the main contributor in depletion of natural resources, influences climate change. This paper discusses incremental and evolutionary development of the proposed models for optimization of a life-cycle analysis to explicit strategy for evaluation systems. The main categories are virtually irresistible for introducing uncertainties, uptake composite structure model (CSM) as environmental management systems (EMSs) in a practice science of evaluation small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The model simplified complex systems to reflect nature systems’ input, output and outcomes mode influence “framework measures” and give a maximum likelihood estimation of how elements are simulated over the composite structure. The traditional knowledge of modeling is based on physical dynamic and static patterns regarding parameters influence environment. It unified methods to demonstrate how construction systems ecology interrelated from management prospective in procedure reflects the effect of the effects of engineering systems to ecology as ultimately unified technologies in extensive range beyond constructions impact so as, - energy systems. Sustainability broadens socioeconomic parameters to practice science that meets recovery performance, engineering reflects the generic control of protective systems. When the environmental model employed properly, management decision process in governments or corporations could address policy for accomplishment strategic plans precisely. The management and engineering limitation focuses on autocatalytic control as a close cellular system to naturally balance anthropogenic insertions or aggregation structure systems to pound equilibrium as steady stable conditions. Thereby, construction systems ecology incorporates engineering and management scheme, as a midpoint stage between biotic and abiotic components to predict constructions impact. The later outcomes’ theory of environmental obligation suggests either a procedures of method or technique that is achieved in sustainability impact of construction system ecology (SICSE), as a relative mitigation measure of deviation control, ultimately.

Keywords: sustainability, environmental impact assessment, environemtal management, construction ecology

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Authors: Hanee Ryu

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The former president Lee Myung-bak's administration of Korea presented “green growth” as a catchphrase from 2008. He declared “low-carbon, green growth” the nation's vision for the next decade according to United Nation Framework on Climate Change. The government designed omnidirectional policy for low-carbon and green growth with concentrating all effort of departments. The structural change was expected because this slogan is the identity of the government, which is strongly driven with the whole department. After his administration ends, the purpose of this paper is to quantify the policy effect and to compare with the value of the other OECD countries. The major target values under direct policy objectives were suggested, but it could not capture the entire landscape on which the policy makes changes. This paper figures out the policy impacts through comparing the value of ex-ante between the one of ex-post. Furthermore, each index level of Korea’s low-carbon and green growth comparing with the value of the other OECD countries. To measure the policy effect, indicators international organizations have developed are considered. Environmental Sustainable Index (ESI) and Environmental Performance Index (EPI) have been developed by Yale University’s Center for Environmental Law and Policy and Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and Joint Research Center of European Commission. It has been widely used to assess the level of natural resource endowments, pollution level, environmental management efforts and society’s capacity to improve its environmental performance over time. Recently OCED publish the Green Growth Indicator for monitoring progress towards green growth based on internationally comparable data. They build up the conceptual framework and select indicators according to well specified criteria: economic activities, natural asset base, environmental dimension of quality of life and economic opportunities and policy response. It considers the socio-economic context and reflects the characteristic of growth. Some selected indicators are used for measuring the level of changes the green growth policies have induced in this paper. As results, the CO2 productivity and energy productivity show trends of declination. It means that policy intended industry structure shift for achieving carbon emission target affects weakly in the short-term. Increasing green technologies patents might result from the investment of previous period. The increasing of official development aids which can be immediately embarked by political decision with no time lag present only in 2008-2009. It means international collaboration and investment to developing countries via ODA has not succeeded since the initial stage of his administration. The green growth framework makes the public expect structural change, but it shows sporadic effect. It needs organization to manage it in terms of the long-range perspectives. Energy, climate change and green growth are not the issue to be handled in the one period of the administration. The policy mechanism to transfer cost problem to value creation should be developed consistently.

Keywords: comparing ex-ante between ex-post indicator, green growth indicator, implication for green growth policy, measuring policy effect

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Izabela L. Ciesielska-Wrόbel

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This paper presents finite element models of the fingertip skin which have been created to simulate the contact of textile objects with the skin to gain a better understanding of the perception of textiles through the skin, so-called Hand of Textiles (HoT). Many objective and subjective techniques have been developed to analyze HoT, however none of them provide exact overall information concerning the sensation of textiles through the skin. As the human skin is a complex heterogeneous hyperelastic body composed of many particles, some simplifications had to be made at the stage of building the models. The same concerns models of woven structures, however their utilitarian value was maintained. The models reflect only friction between skin and woven textiles, deformation of the skin and fabrics when “touching” textiles and heat transfer from the surface of the skin into direction of textiles.

Keywords: fingertip skin models, finite element models, modelling of textiles, sensation of textiles through the skin

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