Search results for: trends and variability of rainfall

Authors: Nkosingiphile Mbusozayo Zungu

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The purpose of the current study is to adopt informetrics methods to analyse the research on phishing from 2012 to 2021 in three selected databases in order to contribute to global cybersecurity through impactful research. The study follows a quantitative research methodology. We opted for the positivist epistemology and objectivist ontology. The analysis focuses on: (i) the productivity of individual authors, institutions, and countries; (ii) the research contributions, using co-authorship as a measure of collaboration; (iii) the altmetrics of selected research contributions; (iv) the citation patterns and research impact of research on phishing; and (v) research contributions by keywords, to discover the concepts that are related to phishing. The preliminary findings favour developed countries in terms of quantity and quality of research in the domain. There are unique research trends and patterns in the developing countries, including those in Africa, that provide opportunities for research development in the domain in the region. This study explores an important research domain by using unexplored method in the region. The study supports the SDG Agenda 2030, such as ending abuse, exploitation, trafficking, and all other forms of violence and torture of children through the use of cyberspace (SDG 16). Further, the results from this study can inform research, teaching, and learning largely in Africa. Invariably, the study contributes to cybersecurity awareness that will mitigate cybersecurity threats against vulnerable communities.

Keywords: phishing, cybersecurity, informetrics, information security

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Authors: Laila Khawaja

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In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on measuring program implementation, in part because of the great variability in how complex interventions are delivered in real-life settings. There is an increased awareness that while conducting process evaluations, one should aim to identify and understand the complexities of intervention if they are to be used for future intervention development or the strategies needed to implement the same intervention in a different setting. Complex interventions are public health interventions that are not drugs or surgical procedures but have many potential active aspects of intervention. In this paper, process evaluations are aligned with MRC guidelines to identify contextual factors related to outcomes to assess the quality of implementation. This paper briefly discusses the perceptions of research team on the implementation of the intervention of ‘Engaging Adolescents in Changing Behaviour’ (EACH-B), a school-based complex intervention study aiming to improve diet and physical activity among adolescents aged 12-13 years. Through qualitative interviews and focus groups with 10 staff members, we aimed to understand their experiences and reflections on implementing the EACH-B trial delivered in 49 Schools around Hampshire, England. Data were uploaded into NVivo, and analysis was conducted using thematic analysis. The investigation revealed two overarching themes: (a) how the communication patterns with teachers were impacted during the delivery of implementation and (b) what were the team’s strategies to keep logistics aligned with the research process that impacted the overall implementation of the trial. The paper informs adaptation strategies used by the research team to establish and maintain effective communication with the teachers as well as the thoughtfulness of the team’s logistic strategy for the successful delivery of the trial.

Keywords: complex interventions, process evaluation, adaptation strategies, randomised controlled trial

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Authors: Na Xiao

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Animal metaphors have many different connotations, ranging from loving emotions to derogatory epithets, but gender expressions using animal metaphors are often imbalanced. Generally, animal metaphors related to females tend to be negative. Little known about the reasons for the negative expressions of animal female metaphors in Chinese contexts still have not been quantified. The Modern Chinese Corpus at the Center for Chinese Linguistics at Peking University (CCL Corpus) provided the data for this research, which aims to identify the influencing variables of gender differences in the description of animal metaphors mapping humans in Chinese by observing the percentage of "tiger" metaphor, which is based on the conceptual metaphor theory. A quantitative research method was used in this study to statistically examine the gender attitude percentage of the "tiger" metaphor using corpus data. This study has proved that the tiger metaphors associated with humans in the Chinese context tend to be negative. Importantly, this study has also shown that the high proportion of tiger metaphorical idioms is what causes the high proportion of negative tiger metaphors that are related to women. This finding can be used as crucial information for future studies on other gender-related animal metaphorical idioms and can offer additional insights for understanding trends in other animal metaphors.

Keywords: Chinese, CCL corpus, gender differences, metaphorical idioms, tigers

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Authors: Prashansa Singh, Manjot Kaur, Rohit Bajaj

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The proliferation of wireless sensor networks and Internet of Things (IoT) devices in the quickly changing digital landscape has highlighted the urgent need for strong security solutions that can handle these systems’ limited resources. A key solution to this problem is the emergence of ultralightweight security protocols, which provide strong security features while respecting the strict computational, energy, and memory constraints imposed on these kinds of devices. This in-depth analysis explores the field of ultralightweight security protocols, offering a thorough examination of their evolution, salient features, and the particular security issues they resolve. We carefully examine and contrast different protocols, pointing out their advantages and disadvantages as well as the compromises between resource limitations and security resilience. We also study these protocols’ application domains, including the Internet of Things, RFID systems, and wireless sensor networks, to name a few. In addition, the review highlights recent developments and advancements in the field, pointing out new trends and possible avenues for future research. This paper aims to be a useful resource for researchers, practitioners, and developers, guiding the design and implementation of safe, effective, and scalable systems in the Internet of Things era by providing a comprehensive overview of ultralightweight security protocols.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, machine-to-machine, MQTT broker, server, ultralightweight, TCP/IP

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Authors: Dermot O'Brien, Vasileios Christaras, Georgios Fontaras, Igor Nai Fovino, Ioannis Kounelis

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With the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT), 5G, and blockchain (BC) technologies, vehicles are becoming ever increasingly connected and are already transmitting substantial amounts of data to the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) servers. This data could be used to help detect mileage fraud and enable more accurate vehicle emissions monitoring. This would not only help regulators but could enable applications such as permitting efficient drivers to pay less tax, geofencing for air quality improvement, as well as pollution tolling and trading platforms for transport-related businesses and EU citizens. Other applications could include traffic management and shared mobility systems. BC enables the transmission of data with additional security and removes single points of failure while maintaining data provenance, identity ownership, and the possibility to retain varying levels of privacy depending on the requirements of the applied use case. This research performs simulations of vehicles interacting with European member state authorities and European Commission BC nodes that are running hyperleger fabric and explores whether the technology is currently feasible for transport applications such as the emission monitoring use-case.

Keywords: future transportation systems, technological innovations, policy approaches for transportation future, economic and regulatory trends, blockchain

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Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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Authors: Rukayya Ibrahim Muazu, Aiduan Li Borrion, Julia A. Stegemann

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Biomass briquette gasification is regarded as a promising route for efficient briquette use in energy generation, fuels and other useful chemicals, however, previous research work has focused on briquette gasification in fixed bed gasifiers such as updraft and downdraft gasifiers. Fluidised bed gasifier has the potential to be effectively sized for medium or large scale. This study investigated the use of fuel briquettes produced from blends of rice husks and corn cobs biomass residues, in a bubbling fluidised bed gasifier. The study adopted a combination of numerical equations and Aspen Plus simulation software to predict the product gas (syngas) composition based on briquette's density and biomass composition (blend ratio of rice husks to corn cobs). The Aspen Plus model was based on an experimentally validated model from the literature. The results based on a briquette size of 32 mm diameter and relaxed density range of 500 to 650 kg/m3 indicated that fluidisation air required in the gasifier increased with an increase in briquette density, and the fluidisation air showed to be the controlling factor compared with the actual air required for gasification of the biomass briquettes. The mass flowrate of CO2 in the predicted syngas composition, increased with an increase in the air flow rate, while CO production decreased and H2 was almost constant. The H2/CO ratio for various blends of rice husks and corn cobs did not significantly change at the designed process air, but a significant difference of 1.0 for H2/CO ratio was observed at higher air flow rate, and between 10/90 to 90/10 blend ratio of rice husks to corn cobs. This implies the need for further understanding of biomass variability and hydrodynamic parameters on syngas composition in biomass briquette gasification.

Keywords: aspen plus, briquettes, fluidised bed, gasification, syngas

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Authors: Wenting Zhang, Shishi Liu, Peihong Fu

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As an indicator of air quality and directly related to concentration of ground PM2.5, the spatial-temporal variation and impact factor analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been a hot spot in air pollution. This paper concerns the non-stationarity and the autocorrelation (with Moran’s I index of 0.75) of the AOD in Wuhan agglomeration (WHA), in central China, uses the geographically weighted regression (GRW) to identify the spatial relationship of AOD and its impact factors. The 3 km AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) is used in this study. Beyond the economic-social factor, land use density factors, vegetable cover, and elevation, the landscape metric is also considered as one factor. The results suggest that the GWR model is capable of dealing with spatial varying relationship, with R square, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and standard residual better than that of ordinary least square (OLS) model. The results of GWR suggest that the urban developing, forest, landscape metric, and elevation are the major driving factors of AOD. Generally, the higher AOD trends to located in the place with higher urban developing, less forest, and flat area.

Keywords: aerosol optical depth, geographically weighted regression, land use change, Wuhan agglomeration

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Authors: Sana Tahzeeb

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Role of Muslim minority in a democratic state has been the most debatable as well as attractive issue in the writings of the contemporary Muslim scholars, never discussed in the classical Islamic literature of history. Islam as a dominant religion has been the issue of academic discussions in the entire classical literature of Islamic jurisprudence the division of world into Dar al-Islam (abode of Islam), Dar al-Harb (abode of war) has been the main division on the basis of which Islam’s relation with the remaining world were defined and formulated. Now living in a global society the classical division of territories seems to be irrelevant. The new division of the same became necessary in the present situation particularly in view of the pluralistic society and need of power sharing in non-Muslim countries. It is important to note that a number of Muslim scholars of modern period examined this problem and other issues of Muslim minorities from legal point of view. Fiqh al-Aqalliyat is a newly developed discipline of Islamic jurisprudence. The rationale for this development is that there are so many issues of the Muslim minorities particularly in the European countries which are required to be discussed and examined juridically by Muslim jurists and scholars. There was also need for reinterpreting the term Dar al-Harb and relevance of its applicability to the west. The present paper shed a light on these emerging trends in Islamic world.

Keywords: fiqh al Aqalliyat, Muslim minorities, Europe, Islam

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Authors: Osa D Egonwa

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In the 21^st century, the disciplinary boundaries of past centuries that we often create through mainstream art historical classification, techniques and sources may have been eroded by visual culture, which seems to provide a more inclusive umbrella for the new ways artists go about the creative process and its resultant commodities. Over the past four decades, artists in Africa have resorted to new materials, techniques and themes which have affected our ways of research on these artists and their art. Frontline artists such as El Anatsui, Yinka Shonibare, Erasmus Onyishi are demonstrating that any material is just suitable for artistic expression. Most of times, these materials come with their own techniques/effects and visual syntax: a combination of materials compounds techniques, formal aesthetic indexes, halo effects, and iconography. This tends to challenge the categories and we lean on to view, think and talk about them. This renders our main stream art historical research methods inadequate, thus suggesting new discursive concepts, terms and theories. This paper proposed the Africanist eclectic methods derived from the dual framework of Masquerade Theory and What Comes Behind Six is More Than Seven. This paper shares thoughts/research on art historical methods, terminological re-alignments on classification/source data, presentational format and interpretation arising from the emergent trends in our subject. The outcome provides useful tools to mediate new thoughts and experiences in recent African art and visual culture.

Keywords: art historical methods, classifications, concepts, re-alignment

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisa, Winifred Essaah

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Significant worldwide trends including urbanization, industrialization, globalization, and the impending digitization have all contributed to human prosperity. However, the majority of these advancements fail to take sustainability into account, which caused the earth to manifest its retaliation in many forms. Since the world is already well-advanced, mankind needs a mature development that instills sustainability in its acts. As a result, the United Nations established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which set forth guidelines for human behavior to ensure that the ecosystem and mankind coexist as a unified, autonomous system. The study investigates the role of eco-innovation, renewable energy consumption, human capital, environmental tax, and natural resources in achieving European Union countries' sustainable development goals. The results show that eco-innovation, renewable energy consumption, human capital, and environmental tax have a negative relationship with consumption-based CO₂ emissions but a positive relationship with natural resources. These findings suggest that governments in European Union countries commit to encouraging environmentally friendly technology advances and green investment. It also stresses the need to enforce regulations that regulate the activities of polluting firms in the region with strictness.

Keywords: sustainable development, Eco-innovation, renewable energy, CO₂ emissions

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Authors: Charles Amoo, Joshua New, Bill Eckman

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Buildings in the United States account for a significant proportion of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and this trend is expected to continue as well as rise in the near future. Low-income households, in particular, bear a disproportionate burden of high building energy consumption and spending due to high energy costs. Energy efficiency improvements need to reach an average of 4% per year in this decade in order to meet global net zero emissions target by 2050, but less than 1 % of U.S. buildings are improved each year. The government has recognized the importance of technology in addressing this issue, and energy efficiency programs have been developed to tackle the problem. The Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), the largest residential whole-house energy efficiency program in the U.S., is specifically designed to reduce energy costs for low-income households. Under the WAP, energy auditors must follow specific audit procedures and use Department of Energy (DOE) approved energy audit tools or software. This article proposes an expanded framework of factors that should be considered in energy audit software that is approved for use in energy efficiency programs, particularly for low-income households. The framework includes more than 50 factors organized under 14 assessment criteria and can be used to qualitatively and quantitatively score different energy audit software to determine their suitability for specific energy efficiency programs. While the tool can be useful for developers to build new tools and improve existing software, as well as for energy efficiency program administrators to approve or certify tools for use, there are limitations to the model, such as the lack of flexibility that allows continuous scoring to accommodate variability and subjectivity. These limitations can be addressed by using aggregate scores of each criterion as weights that could be combined with value function and direct rating scores in a multicriteria decision analysis for a more flexible scoring.

Keywords: buildings, energy efficiency, energy audit, software

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Authors: Massimo Imparato

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The study aims to identify the background of the contemporary trends in the design of commercial outdoors, and the reasons for the radical change in the traditional relationship between architecture and interior design, where the latter is taking over the construction of the visual narrative framing the users’ experience, which was ruled in the past by the architectural discourse. The design of commercial interiors, in fact, influences the way in which their outdoor spaces are organized and used more than ever before, and reflects the multi-faceted changes in the consumers’ behaviors and their interaction with the built environment. The study starts with the analysis of the evolution of sheltered outdoor spaces to achieve a broader understanding of the shift of meaning of subjects such as private and public domains, and to consider the varied ways of interaction/integration between the building and its exterior space. The study identifies the major social, physical and cultural aspects influencing the design of contemporary commercial outdoor spaces, suggests a new framework for their understanding and draws the methodological guidelines for the development of a structured approach to the design of commercial outdoors. The purpose of the paper is to stress the influence of the design of interiors into the public realm, to indicate new directions in this field of research, and to provide new methodological tools for interior design professionals.

Keywords: interior design, landscape design, visual narrative, outdoor design

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Authors: Yu Chen

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This paper investigates the influence of flaw on failure process of rock-like material under uniaxial compression. In laboratory, the uniaxial compression tests of intact specimens and a series of specimens within single flaw were conducted. The inclination angle of flaws includes 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75° and 90°. Based on the laboratory tests, the corresponding models of numerical simulation were built and loaded in PFC2D. After analysing the crack initiation and failure modes, deformation field, and energy mechanism for both laboratory tests and numerical simulation, it can be concluded that the influence of flaws on the failure process is determined by its inclination. The characteristic stresses increase as flaw angle rising basically. The tensile cracks develop from gentle flaws (α ≤ 30°) and the shear cracks develop from other flaws. The propagation of cracks changes during failure process and the failure mode of a specimen corresponds to the orientation of the flaw. A flaw has significant influence on the transverse deformation field at the middle of the specimen, except the 75° and 90° flaw sample. The input energy, strain energy and dissipation energy of specimens show approximate increase trends with flaw angle rising and it presents large difference on the energy distribution.

Keywords: failure pattern, particle deformation field, energy mechanism, PFC

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Authors: Asna Anchalan, Anjana Bhagyanathan

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Urban green space plays an important role in providing health (physical and mental well-being), economic, and environmental benefits for urban residents and neighborhoods. Ensuring equitable distribution of urban green space is vital to ensure equal access to these benefits. This study is developing a methodology for assessing spatial equity of urban green spaces in the Indian context. Through a systematic literature review, the research trends, parameters, data, and tools being used are identified. After 2020, the research in this domain is increasing rapidly, where COVID-19 acted as a catalyst. Indian documents use various terminologies, definitions, and classifications of urban green spaces. The terminology, definition, and classification for this study are done after reviewing several Indian documents, master plans, and research papers. Parameters identified for assessing spatial equity are availability, proximity, accessibility, and socio-economic disparity. Criteria for evaluating each parameter were identified from diverse research papers. There is a research gap identified as a comprehensive approach encompassing all four parameters. The outcome of this study led to the development of a methodology that addresses the gaps, providing a practical tool applicable across diverse Indian cities.

Keywords: urban green space, spatial equity, accessibility, proximity, methodology

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Authors: Tanu Malik, Eusebe Gnonlonfoun, Eudes L. Anihouvi

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The rise of nutrition-related diseases, increase of health care cost, and the social perception that food could directly affect health have naturally created an environment conducive to the development of foods and beverages with an asserted health benefit. Consumer habits have turned considerably healthier in recent years and led to the demand for fortified and enhanced foods that could adequately provide health benefits beyond necessary nutrients for humans when they are consumed as part of the diet and regularly. These trends have developed a global market for functional foods, that grows annually and undoubtedly requires to be diversified. Product development appears thus as a key research priority for both the food industry and science sectors. The health benefits of these functional foods are summarized in two possible ways: either indirectly as a desired result of biogenic effect or through the direct interaction of ingested live microorganisms with the host (probiotic effect). This paper reviews functional foods and their beneficial health effects with a key focus on probiotics for the possible expansion of their use by the food industry in order to develop non-dairy based probiotics foods. Likewise, it reveals the need for more researches oriented towards an accurate understanding of the possible interaction between probiotic strains and the matrix and, on the other hand, the interaction between probiotic strains and some enzymes used during food manufacturing.

Keywords: functional foods, food industry, health benefits, probiotics

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Authors: Muhammad Kashif

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The primary aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of financial technology (FinTech) on sustainable finance. The sample for this study spans from 2010 to 2021, encompassing data from 89 countries worldwide. The study employed two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression approach with the instrumental variables and validated the findings using a two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings indicate that fintech has a significant favorable impact on sustainable finance. While other factors such as institutional quality, socio-economic condition, and renewable energy have a significant and beneficial influence on the trajectory of sustainable finance, except globalization's impact is positive but insignificant. Furthermore, fintech is crucial in driving the transition toward a sustainable future characterized by a lower carbon economy. The study found that fintech has extensive application across various sectors of sustainable finance and has substantial potential to create long-term positive effects on sustainable finance. Fintech can integrate extensively with other technologies to facilitate diversified growth in sustainable finance. Additionally, this study highlights fintech-related trends and research opportunities in sustainable finance, showing how these can promote each other worldwide with important policy implications for countries looking to advance sustainable finance through technology.

Keywords: sustainable development goals (SDGs), financial technology (FinTech), genuine savings index (GSI), financial stability index, sustainable finance

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Authors: Andrew Sutherland

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In many ways, opera is not a natural domain for children. It is hardly surprising that from the thousands of works, comparatively few include roles for children. There are several possibilities for this, the dramatic themes in opera are often about the human condition from the adult perspective; the need for developed voices to project in large, theatrical spaces underpinned by orchestral accompaniment does not naturally suit the child’s voice, and enabling children to cope with long runs of performances on top of their education requires vocal and physical stamina. In more recent times, the involvement of children contributes another layer of difficulty in terms of having access to young singers while adhering to laws that protect their working rights. Despite these points, children have been in opera since its inception in a variety of ways, but their contribution is often undervalued or ignored by musicologists and even the industry itself. In this paper, the phenomenon of children in opera from the late 16th century to the present day is explored through empirical, socio-musicological observations with reference to score analysis. Conclusions are drawn regarding the changing attitudes of composers when scoring for children’s voices in relation to societal developments. From the use of ‘kindertruppen’ in the pre-enlightenment period to Handel’s virtuosic writing for William Savage, to the darkness of the inter-war eras which saw a proliferation of operatic characters for children and the post-war era which saw children as the new frontier of building audiences for opera, the links between changes in society and the inclusion, portrayal and scoring for children in opera are largely congruent.

Keywords: children, musical analysis, opera, sociology

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Authors: Mohammed Bashir Uddin

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Human trafficking remains as a persistent problem in many parts of the world. It is considered by many countries as an issue of a threat to national security. Border enforcement to prevent trafficking has been the main incentive, which eventually causes human insecurity for vulnerable people, especially for women. This research argues that focus needs to be placed on the political economy of trafficking, hence on the supply and demand sides of trafficking from a broader socio-economic perspective. Trafficking is a global phenomenon with its contemporary origins in the international capitalist market system. This research investigates particularly the supply-demand nexus on the backdrop of globalization and its impact on human security. It argues that the nexus varies across the countries, particularly the demand side. While prostitution has been the sole focus of the demand side in all countries in Asia, the paper argues that organ trade, bonded labor, cheap and exploitable labor through false recruitment (male trafficking) and adoption are some of the rising demands that explore new trends of trafficking, which could be better explained through international political economy (IPE). Following a qualitative research method, the paper argues that although demands vary in destination countries, they are the byproducts of IPE which have different socio-economic impacts both on trafficked individuals and the states.

Keywords: globalization, human security, human trafficking, political economy

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Authors: Dong Tran, Thanh Dac Van, Ly Le

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Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) play an important role in host immune evasion across influenza virus evolution process. The correlation between HA and NA evolution in respect to epitopic evolution and drug interaction has yet to be investigated. In this study, combining of sequence to structure evolution and statistical analysis on epitopic/binding site specificity, we identified potential therapeutic features of HA and NA that show specific antibody binding site of HA and specific binding distribution within NA active site of current inhibitors. Our approach introduces the use of sequence variation and molecular interaction to provide an effective strategy in establishing experimental based distributed representations of protein-protein/ligand complexes. The most important advantage of our method is that it does not require complete dataset of complexes but rather directly inferring feature interaction from sequence variation and molecular interaction. Using correlated sequence analysis, we additionally identified co-evolved mutations associated with maintaining HA/NA structural and functional variability toward immunity and therapeutic treatment. Our investigation on the HA binding specificity revealed unique conserved stalk domain interacts with unique loop domain of universal antibodies (CR9114, CT149, CR8043, CR8020, F16v3, CR6261, F10). On the other hand, NA inhibitors (Oseltamivir, Zaninamivir, Laninamivir) showed specific conserved residue contribution and similar to that of NA substrate (sialic acid) which can be exploited for drug design. Our study provides an important insight into rational design and identification of novel therapeutics targeting universally recognized feature of influenza HA/NA.

Keywords: influenza virus, hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), sequence evolution

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Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Rachel Wachtendonk, John Calambokidis, Kiirsten Flynn

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Large marine mammals can serve as an indicator of the overall state of the environment due to their long lifespan and apex position in marine food webs. Reductions in prey, driven by changes in environmental conditions can have resounding impacts on the trophic system as a whole; this can manifest in reduced fat stores that are visible on large whales. Poor health can lead to reduced survivorship and fitness, both of which can be detrimental to a recovering population. A non-invasive technique was used for monitoring blue whale health and for seeing if it changes with ocean conditions. Digital photographs of blue whales taken in the NE Pacific by Cascadia Research and collaborators from 2005-2018 (n=3,545) were scored for overall body condition based on visible vertebrae and body shape on a scale of 0-3 where a score of 0 indicated best body condition and a score of 3 indicated poorest. The data was analyzed to determine if there were patterns in the health of whales across years and whether overall poor health was related to oceanographic conditions and predictors of prey abundance on the California coast. The year was a highly significant factor in body condition (Chi-Square, p<0.001). The proportion of whales showing poor body condition (scores 2 & 3) overall was 33% but by year varied widely from a low of 18% (2008) to a high of 55% (2015). The only two years where >50% of animals had poor body condition were 2015 and 2017 (no other year was above 45%). The 2015 maximum proportion of whales in poor body condition coincide with the marine heat wave that affected the NE Pacific 2014-16 and impacted other whale populations. This indicates that the scoring method was an effective way to evaluate blue whale health and how they respond to a changing ocean.

Keywords: blue whale, body condition, environmental variability, photo-identification

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Amirreza Razzaghipour Sorkhab

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Hearing loss is one of the greatest common chronic health situations of older people. Hearing aids are the common treatment, and they recover the quality of life in older adults. Even so, comparatively few older adults with simple, mild to moderate, adult-onset, sensorineural hearing loss use hearing aids. It shouldn’t be expected that more expensive hearing aids always produce better outcomes. Given the importance of quality pledge, approaches of quantifying hearing aid fitting achievement are needed. Studies showed an important reduction in handicap following 3 weeks of hearing aid use, signifying the feasibility of using the Hearing Hindrance Inventory for the Elderly as an outcome measure for hearing aid success after a brief interval of hearing aid use. The results showed important development of the quality of life after three months of using a hearing aid in all members and improvement of their most important problems, i.e., the communication and exchange of data. Hearing loss can impair the conversation of information and so decreases the quality of life. Hearing aids have progressivemeaningfully over the past decade, chiefly due to the growing of digital technology. The next decade should see an even greater number of innovations to hearing aid technology. Development in digital hearing aids will be driven by investigate advances in the next fields such as wireless technology, hearing science, and cognitive scienceMoreover, emerging trends such as connectivity and individuation will also drive new technology. We hope that the advancement of technology will be enough to meet the needs of people with hearing aids.

Keywords: hearing loss, hearing aid, hearing aid technology, health

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Authors: Utsav Swarnkar, Rabi Pathak, Rina Maiti

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the thermoregulatory role of sweating by comprehensively analyzing the evaporation process and its thermal cooling impact on local skin temperature at various time intervals. Traditional experimental methods struggle to fully capture these intricate phenomena. Therefore, numerical simulations play a crucial role in assessing sweat production rates and associated thermal cooling. This research utilizes transient computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to enhance our understanding of the evaporative cooling process on human skin. We conducted a simulation employing the k-w SST turbulence model. This simulation includes a scenario where sweat evaporation occurs over the skin surface, and at particular time intervals, temperatures at different locations have been observed and its effect explained. During this study, sweat evaporation was monitored on the skin surface following the commencement of the simulation. Subsequent to the simulation, various observations were made regarding temperature fluctuations at specific points over time intervals. It was noted that points situated closer to the periphery of the droplets exhibited higher levels of heat transfer and lower temperatures, whereas points within the droplets displayed contrasting trends.

Keywords: CFD, sweat, evaporation, multiphase flow, local heat loss

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Authors: Sami M. Alshareef

Abstract:

In the rapidly evolving energy landscape, the integration of renewable energy sources and the electrification of transportation are essential steps toward achieving sustainability goals. However, these advancements introduce new challenges, particularly in maintaining frequency stability due to variable photovoltaic (PV) generation and the growing demand for fast charging stations. The variability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to weather conditions can disrupt the balance between generation and load, resulting in frequency deviations. To ensure the stability of power systems, it is imperative to develop effective under frequency load-shedding schemes. This research proposal presents an adaptive under-frequency load shedding scheme based on the power swing equation, designed explicitly for the IEEE-9 Bus Test System, that includes PV generation and fast charging stations. This research aims to address these challenges by developing an advanced scheme that dynamically disconnects fast charging stations based on power imbalances. The scheme prioritizes the disconnection of stations near affected areas to expedite system frequency stabilization. To achieve these goals, the research project will leverage the power swing equation, a widely recognized model for analyzing system dynamics during under-frequency events. By utilizing this equation, the proposed scheme will adaptively adjust the load-shedding process in real-time to maintain frequency stability and prevent power blackouts. The research findings will support the transition towards sustainable energy systems by ensuring a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply while enhancing the resilience and stability of power systems during under-frequency events.

Keywords: load shedding, fast charging stations, pv generation, power system resilience

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Authors: Mst. Nilufa Sultana, Shatirah Akib, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf, Mohamed Roseli Zainal Abidin

Abstract:

Most people today are aware that global Climate change, is not just a scientific theory but also a fact with worldwide consequences. Global climate change is due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, high population growth and current vulnerability of the climatic condition. Water is becoming scarce as a result of global climate change. To mitigate the problem arising due to global climate change and its drought effect, harvesting rainwater from green roofs, an environmentally-friendly and versatile technology, is becoming one of the best assessment criteria and gaining attention in Malaysia. This paper addresses the sustainability of green roofs and examines the quality of water harvested from green roofs in comparison to rainwater. The factors that affect the quality of such water, taking into account, for example, roofing materials, climatic conditions, the frequency of rainfall frequency and the first flush. A green roof was installed on the Humid Tropic Centre (HTC) is a place of the study on monitoring program for urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA), Eco-Hydrological Project in Kualalumpur, and the rainwater was harvested and evaluated on the basis of four parameters i.e., conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and temperature. These parameters were found to fall between Class I and Class III of the Interim National Water Quality Standards (INWQS) and the Water Quality Index (WQI). Some preliminary treatment such as disinfection and filtration could likely to improve the value of these parameters to class I. This review paper clearly indicates that there is a need for more research to address other microbiological and chemical quality parameters to ensure that the harvested water is suitable for use potable water for domestic purposes. The change in all physical, chemical and microbiological parameters with respect to storage time will be a major focus of future studies in this field.

Keywords: Green roofs, INWQS, MSMA-SME, rainwater harvesting, water treatment, water quality parameter, WQI

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Jamileh Vasheghani Farahani

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to show the current active faults and active tectonic of the area by three seismic networks in Tehran region: 1-Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), 2-Broadband Iranian National Seismic Network Center (BIN), 3-Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC). In this study, we analyzed microearthquakes happened in Tehran city and its surroundings using the Tehran networks from 1996 to 2015. We found some active faults and trends in the region. There is a 200-year history of historical earthquakes in Tehran. Historical and instrumental seismicity show that the east of Tehran is more active than the west. The Mosha fault in the North of Tehran is one of the active faults of the central Alborz. Moreover, other major faults in the region are Kahrizak, Eyvanakey, Parchin and North Tehran faults. An important seismicity region is an intersection of the Mosha and North Tehran fault systems (Kalan village in Lavasan). This region shows a cluster of microearthquakes. According to the historical and microseismic events analyzed in this research, there is a seismic gap in SE of Tehran. The empirical relationship is used to assess the Mmax based on the rupture length. There is a probability of occurrence of a strong motion of 7.0 to 7.5 magnitudes in the region (based on the assessed capability of the major faults such as Parchin and Eyvanekey faults and historical earthquakes).

Keywords: Iran, major faults, microseismicity, Tehran

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Juan Carlos Rubio Romero, Francico Salguero Caparros, Virginia Herrera-Pérez

Abstract:

No one is in the slightest doubt about the high levels of risk involved in work in the construction industry. They are even higher in structural construction work. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) is a semi-structured interview technique that uses cognitive tests to identify the different disturbances that workers have to deal with in their work activity. At present, the vision of safety focused on daily performance and things that go well for safety and health management is facing the new paradigm known as Resilience Engineering. The aim of this study has been to describe the variability in formwork labour on concrete structures in the construction industry and, from there, to find out the resilient attitude of workers to unexpected events that they have experienced during their working lives. For this purpose, a series of semi-structured interviews were carried out with construction employees with extensive experience in formwork labour in Spain by applying the Critical Decision Method. This work has been the first application of the Critical Decision Method in the field of construction and, more specifically, in the execution of structures. The results obtained show that situations categorised as unthought-of are identified to a greater extent than potentially unexpected situations. The identification during these interviews of both expected and unexpected events provides insight into the critical decisions made and actions taken to improve resilience in daily practice in this construction work. From this study, it is clear that it is essential to gain more knowledge about the nature of the human cognitive process in work situations within complex socio-technical systems such as construction sites. This could lead to a more effective design of workplaces in the search for improved human performance.

Keywords: resilience engineering, construction industry, unthought-of situations, critical decision method

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Collins Ogbu, Godwin Johnny Akpan, James NDA Jacob

Abstract:

The debilitating outcomes of violent conflict, consummated by rural armed banditry have nonetheless, occasioned the need for the mapping of crime zones in Nigeria. As a step towards understanding the scourge of armed bandits, ungoverned spaces have been uncovered as the most dominant excuse for rural crimes and fierce confrontations. From the creeks of the Niger Delta to the forest of Sambisa, Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) have proliferated to the vagaries of national insecurity. While the trends present indications of State fragility, the paucity of governance in these so-called ungoverned spaces has persistently reflected a Hobbesian state of nature, where the fittest survives. This study, therefore, interrogates the demographic implications of these ungoverned spaces by specifically identifying the most immediate features of the characters in the areas under investigation. The Farmers-Herders Crises, Niger-Delta Militancy, Boko-Haram Insurgency, Armed Robbery, Kidnapping and Cattle Rustling all define the major focus. In undertaking this study, anecdotal sources will be relied on, while extant information on the concept of ungoverned spaces will be content-analyzed. It is hoped that the knowledge gathered, as a result, will ultimately aid in proffering a dependable panacea to the crises of rural armed banditry in Nigeria.

Keywords: ungoverned spaces, rural armed banditry, state fragility, conflicts

Procedia PDF Downloads 166