Search results for: predictive modelling

Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

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Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Abdulrahman S. Alqahtani

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The revolution of computing and networks could revolutionise terrorism in the same way that it has brought about changes in other aspects of life. The modern technological era has faced countries with a new set of security challenges. There are many states and potential adversaries who have the potential and capacity in cyberspace, which makes them able to carry out cyber-attacks in the future. Some of them are currently conducting surveillance, gathering and analysis of technical information, and mapping of networks and nodes and infrastructure of opponents, which may be exploited in future conflicts. This poster presents the results of the quantitative study (survey) to test the validity of the proposed theoretical framework for the cyber terrorist threats. This theoretical framework will help to in-depth understand these new digital terrorist threats. It may also be a practical guide for managers and technicians in critical infrastructure, to understand and assess the threats they face. It might also be the foundation for building a national strategy to counter cyberterrorism. In the beginning, it provides basic information about the data. To purify the data, reliability and exploratory factor analysis, as well as confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were performed. Then, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was utilised to test the final model of the theory and to assess the overall goodness-of-fit between the proposed model and the collected data set.

Keywords: cyberterrorism, critical infrastructure, , national security, theoretical framework, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Jonathan A. Sánchez Muñoz, Gustavo Flores Eraña, Juan M. Silva

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Mexican Mezcal industry has reached attention during the last decade due to it has been a popular beverage demanded by North American and European markets, reaching popularity due to its crafty character. Despite its wide demand, productive processes are still made with rudimentary equipment, and there is a lack of evidence to improve kiln energy efficiency. Tec21 is a challenge-based learning curricular model implemented by Tecnológico de Monterrey since 2019, where each formation unit requires an industrial partner. “Problem processes solution” is a formation unity designed for mechatronics engineers, where students apply the acquired knowledge in thermofluids and apply electronic. During five weeks, students are immersed in an industrial problem to obtain a proper level of competencies according to formation unit designers. This work evaluates the competencies acquired by the student through qualitative research methodology. Several evaluation instruments (report, essay, and poster) were selected to evaluate etic argumentation, principles of sustainability, implemented actions, process modelling, and redesign feasibility.

Keywords: applied electronic, challenge based learning, competencies, mezcal industry, thermofluids

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Obiora E. Anisiji, Jeremiah L. Chukwuneke, Chinonso H. Achebe, Paul C. Okolie

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This work developed a mathematical model of a biogas plant from a mechanistic point of view, for urban area clean energy requirement. It aimed at integrating thermodynamics; which deals with the direction in which a process occurs and Biochemical kinetics; which gives the understanding of the rates of biochemical reaction. The mathematical formulation of the proposed gas plant follows the fundamental principles of thermodynamics, and further analysis were accomplished to develop an algorithm for evaluating the plant performance preferably in terms of daily production capacity. In addition, the capacity of the plant is equally estimated for a given cycle of operation and presented in time histories. A nominal 1500m3 biogas plant was studied characteristically and its performance efficiency evaluated. It was observed that the rate of biogas production is essentially a function of enthalpy ratio, the reactor temperature, pH, substrate concentration, rate of degradation of the biomass, and the accumulation of matter in the system due to bacteria growth. The results of this study conform to a very large extent with reported empirical data of some existing plant and further model validations were conducted in line with classical records found in literature.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas plant, biogas production, bio-reactor, energy, fermentation, rate of production, temperature, therm

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Jaypalsinh B. Parmar, Pintu Nakrani, Ashish Chaurasia

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Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is considered as an important data in GIS-based terrain analysis for many applications and assessment of processes such as environmental and climate change studies, hydrologic modelling, etc. Vertical accuracy of DEM having geographically dynamic nature depends on different parameters which affect the model simulation outcomes. Vertical accuracy assessment in Indian landscape especially in low-lying coastal urban terrain such as lower Tapi Basin is very limited. In the present study, attempt has been made to evaluate the vertical accuracy of 30m resolution open source Indian National Cartosat-1 DEM v3 for Lower Tapi Basin (LTB) from western India. The extensive field investigation is carried out using stratified random fast static DGPS survey in the entire study region, and 117 high accuracy ground control points (GCPs) have been obtained. The above open source DEM was compared with obtained GCPs, and different statistical attributes were envisaged, and vertical error histograms were also evaluated.

Keywords: CartoDEM, Digital Elevation Model, GPS, lower Tapi basin

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Authors: Linda Boussaid, Farid Brahim Belaribi

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The physico-chemical properties of liquid materials in the industrial field, in general, and in that of the chemical industries, in particular, constitutes a prerequisite for the design of equipment, for the resolution of specific problems (related to the techniques of purification and separation, at risk in the transport of certain materials, etc.) and, therefore, at the production stage. Chloroalkanes, ethers constitute three chemical families having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. For example, these compounds are used in various applications in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, they contribute to the particular thermodynamic behavior (deviation from ideality, association, etc.) of certain mixtures which constitute a severe test for predictive theoretical models. Finally, due to the degradation of the environment in the world, a renewed interest is observed for ethers, because some of their physicochemical properties could contribute to lower pollution (ethers would be used as additives in aqueous fuels.). This work is a thermodynamic, experimental and theoretical study of the volumetric properties of liquid binary systems formed from compounds belonging to the chemical families of chloroalkanes, ethers, having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. Experimental determination of the densities and excess volumes of the systems studied, at different temperatures in the interval [278.15-333.15] K and at atmospheric pressure, using an AntonPaar vibrating tube densitometer of the DMA5000 type. This contribution of experimental data, on the volumetric properties of the binary liquid mixtures of 1,2-dichloroethane with an ether, supplemented by an application of the theoretical model of Prigogine-Flory-Patterson PFP, will probably contribute to the enrichment of the thermodynamic database and the further development of the theory of Flory in its Prigogine-Flory-Patterson (PFP) version, for a better understanding of the thermodynamic behavior of these liquid binary mixtures

Keywords: prigogine-flory-patterson (pfp), propriétés volumétrique , volume d’excés, ethers

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Authors: Alim Asamatdinov

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Superabsorbent polymer hydrogels can swell to absorb huge volumes of water or aqueous solutions. This property has led to many practical applications of these new materials, particularly in agriculture for improving the water retention of soils and the water supply of plants. This article reviews the methods of polymeric hydrogels, measurements and treatments of their properties, as well as their effects on soil and on plant growth. The thermodynamic approach used to describe the swelling behaviour of polymer networks proves to be quite helpful in modelling the hydrogel efficiency of water-absorbing additives. The paper presents the results of a study of the physical and chemical properties of hydrogels based on of the production of "Nitron" (Polyacrylonitrile) wastes fibre and salts of the 3-rd transition metals and formalin. The developed hydrogels HG-Al, HG-Cr and HG-formalin have been tested for water holding the capacity of sand. Such a conclusion was also confirmed by data from the method of determining the wilting point by vegetative thumbnails. In the entering process using a dose of 0.1% of the swelling polymeric hydrogel in sand with a culture of barley the difference between the wilting point in comparison with the control was negligible. This indicates that the moisture which was contained in the hydrogel is involved in moisture availability for plant growth, to the same extent as that in the capillaries.

Keywords: hydrogel, chemical, polymer, sandy, colloid

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Authors: Rana Muhammad Ayyub, Muhammad Bilal, Tahir Mahmood

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In multicultural societies, food preferences are taking dimensions in both minorities as well as majority ethnic groups. The food consumption behavior of minority ethnic groups has been studied adequately; however, this paper intends to study the consumer behavioral dimensions of majority ethnic groups regarding Halal foods (a minority-related food) in the USA. In this quantitative study, the online questionnaire survey (n=223) was collected through surveymonkey.com from non-Muslims living in various cities in the USA through random sampling. The theory of consumer animosity was a theoretical underpinning. The validated scales were adopted and adapted for all constructs. AMOS 24 was used to apply structural equation modelling (SEM) to the data. Among the majority of ethnic groups, it was found that consumer racism (β= -25) and consumer animosity (β= - 27) negatively affect intention to choose Halal foods, whereas food neophobia has a positive effect (β=36) on this intention. This study will prove instrumental in removing the blame of “Marketing Myopia” from marketing academics and will highlight the importance of prevalent market realities for one of the fastest growing ethnic food markets, i.e., Halal of the world. It has practical implications for Halal food marketers in particular and other ethnic food marketers in general.

Keywords: consumer racism, animosity, Halal foods, ethnic consumption, food neophobia

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Authors: M. Aladwani, Y. Alarfaj

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The construction industry is currently experiencing a shift towards digitisation. This transformation is driven by adopting technologies like Building Information Modelling (BIM), drones, and augmented reality (AR). These advancements are revolutionizing the process of designing, constructing, and operating projects. BIM, for instance, is a new way of communicating and exploiting technology such as software and machinery. It enables the creation of a replica or virtual model of buildings or infrastructure projects. It facilitates simulating construction procedures, identifying issues beforehand, and optimizing designs accordingly. Drones are another tool in this revolution, as they can be utilized for site surveys, inspections, and even deliveries. Moreover, AR technology provides real-time information to workers involved in the project. Implementing these technologies in the construction industry has brought about improvements in efficiency, safety measures, and sustainable practices. BIM helps minimize rework and waste materials, while drones contribute to safety by reducing workers' exposure to areas. Additionally, AR plays a role in worker safety by delivering instructions and guidance during operations. Although the digital transformation within the construction industry is still in its early stages, it holds the potential to reshape project delivery methods entirely. By embracing these technologies, construction companies can boost their profitability while simultaneously reducing their environmental impact and ensuring safer practices.

Keywords: BIM, digital construction, construction technologies, digital transformation

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: S. Deswal, M. Pal

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The paper aims to compare the performance of vertical and inclined multiple plunging jets and to model and predict their mass transfer capacity by multi-linear regression based approach. The multiple vertical plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 90O; whereas, multiple inclined plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 600. The results of the study suggests that mass transfer is higher for multiple jets, and inclined multiple plunging jets have up to 1.6 times higher mass transfer than vertical multiple plunging jets under similar conditions. The derived relationship, based on multi-linear regression approach, has successfully predicted the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets with a correlation coefficient of 0.973, root mean square error of 0.002 and coefficient of determination of 0.946. The results suggests that predicted overall mass transfer coefficient is in good agreement with actual experimental values; thereby suggesting the utility of derived relationship based on multi-linear regression based approach and can be successfully employed in modelling mass transfer by multiple plunging jets.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, multi-linear regression, earth sciences

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Authors: Amit Saraswat, Ruchi Tewari

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Purpose: The research paper aims at understanding the alignment of business and IT in the Indian context and the business value attached to such an alignment. Methodology: The study is conducted in two stages. Stage one: Bibliographic research was conducted to evolve the parameters for defining alignment. Stage two: Evolving a model for strategic alignment to conduct an empirical study. The model is defined in terms of four fundamental domains of strategic management choice – business strategy, information strategy, organizational structure, and information technology structure. A survey through a questionnaire was conducted across organizations from 4 different industries and Structure Equation Modelling (SEM) technique is used for validating the model. Findings: In the Indian scenario all the subscales of alignment could not be validated. It could be validated that organizational strategy impacts information strategy and information technology structure. Research Limitations: The study is limited to the Indian context. Business IT alignment may be culture dependent so further research is required to validate the model in other cultures. Originality/Value: In the western world several models of alignment of business strategy and information systems is available but they do not measure the extent of alignment which the current study in the Indian context. Findings of the study can be used by managers in strategizing and understanding their business and information systems needs holistically and cohesively leading to efficient use of resources and output.

Keywords: business strategy, information technology (IT), business IT alignment, SEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Darren Edwards, Thomas Pinna

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Background: Interoception and heart rate variability have been found to predict outcomes of mental health and well-being. However, these have usually been investigated independently of one another. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the associations between interoception and heart rate variability (HRV) with emotion regulation (ER) and ER strategies within the existing literature and utilizing systematic review methodology. Methods: The process of article retrieval and selection followed the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Databases PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE were scanned for papers published. Preliminary inclusion and exclusion criteria were specified following the patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome (PICO) framework, whilst the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS) framework was used to help formulate the research question, and to critically assess for bias in the identified full-length articles. Results: 237 studies were identified after initial database searches. Of these, eight studies were included in the final selection. Six studies explored the associations between HRV and ER, whilst three investigated the associations between interoception and ER (one of which was included in the HRV selection too). Overall, the results seem to show that greater HRV and interoception are associated with better ER. Specifically, high parasympathetic activity largely predicted the use of adaptive ER strategies such as reappraisal, and better acceptance of emotions. High interoception, instead, was predictive of effective down-regulation of negative emotions and handling of social uncertainty, there was no association with any specific ER strategy. Conclusions: Awareness of one’s own bodily feelings and vagal activation seem to be of central importance for the effective regulation of emotional responses.

Keywords: emotional regulation, vagal tone, interoception, chronic conditions, health and well-being, psychological flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Edward Fosu

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Green innovation has emerged as a significant environmental concern across the world. Green innovation refers to the utilization of technological developments that facilitate energy savings and waste material recycling. The stakeholder theory and resourced-based theory were used to examine how stakeholders' expectations affect corporate green innovation activities and how corporate innovation initiatives affect the corporate image and social performance. This study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and hierarchical regression to test the effects of environmental corporate social responsibility on social performance through mediators: green innovation and corporate image. A quantitative design was employed using data from Chinese companies in Ghana for this study. The study assessed. The results revealed that environmental practices promote corporate social performance (β = 0.070, t = 1.974, p = 0.049), positively affect green product innovation (β = 0.251, t = 7.478, p < 0.001), and has direct effect on green process innovation (β = 0.174, t = 6.192, p < 0.001). Green product innovation and green process innovation significantly promote corporate image respectively (β = 0.089, t = 2.581, p = 0.010), (β = 0.089, t = 2.367, p = 0.018). Corporate image has significant direct effects on corporate social performance (β = 0.146, t = 4.256, p < 0.001). Corporate environmental practices have an impact on the development of green products and processes which promote companies’ social performance. Additionally, evidence supports that corporate image influences companies’ social performance.

Keywords: environmental CSR, corporate image, green innovation, coprorate social performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Hadjer Sadoune, Liza Lamini, Scherazade Krim, Amel Djouadi, Rachida Rihani

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Deep neural networks are highly regarded for their accuracy in predicting intricate fermentation processes. Their ability to learn from a large amount of datasets through artificial intelligence makes them particularly effective models. The primary obstacle in improving the performance of these models is to carefully choose the suitable hyperparameters, including the neural network architecture (number of hidden layers and hidden units), activation function, optimizer, learning rate, and other relevant factors. This study predicts biogas production from real wastewater treatment plant data using a sophisticated approach: hybrid Bayesian optimization with a tree-structured Parzen estimator (BO-TPE) for an optimised deep neural network (DNN) model. The plant utilizes an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) digester that treats industrial wastewater from soft drinks and breweries. The digester has a working volume of 1574 m3 and a total volume of 1914 m3. Its internal diameter and height were 19 and 7.14 m, respectively. The data preprocessing was conducted with meticulous attention to preserving data quality while avoiding data reduction. Three normalization techniques were applied to the pre-processed data (MinMaxScaler, RobustScaler and StandardScaler) and compared with the Non-Normalized data. The RobustScaler approach has strong predictive ability for estimating the volume of biogas produced. The highest predicted biogas volume was 2236.105 Nm³/d, with coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.712, 164.610, and 223.429, respectively.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas production, deep neural network, hybrid bo-tpe, hyperparameters tuning

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Authors: Yuandanis Wahyu Salam, Irfi Panrepi, Nuraeni

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The increased of greenhouse gases, that is CO2 (carbondioxide) in atmosphere induce the rising of earth’s surface average temperature. One of the largest contributors to greenhouse gases is motor vehicles. Smoke which is emitted by motor’s exhaust containing gases such as CO2 (carbondioxide) and CO (carbon monoxide). Chemically, chitosan is cellulose like plant fiber that has the ability to bind like absorbant foam. Chitosan is a natural antacid (absorb toxins), when chitosan is spread over the surface of water, chitosan is able to absorb fats, oils, heavy metals, and other toxic substances. Judging from the nature of chitosan is able to absorb various toxic substances, it is expected that chitosan is also able to filter out gas emission from the motor vehicles. This study designing a carbondioxide filter in the exhaust of motor vehicles using chitosan as its absorbant. It aims to filter out gases in the exhaust so that CO2 and CO can be reducted before emitted by exhaust. Form of this reseach is study of literature and applied with experimental research of tool manufacture. Data collected through documentary studies by studying books, magazines, thesis, search on the internet as well as the relevant reference. This study will produce a filters which has main function to filter out CO2 and CO emissions that generated by vehicle’s exhaust and can be used as portable.

Keywords: filter, carbon, carbondioxide, exhaust, chitosan

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Authors: Yong Hwang, Kang Yeol Suh, Yundeok Jang, Tae Hoon Kim

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Introduction: Rhabdomyolysis is a syndrome characterized by muscle necrosis and the release of intracellular muscle constituents into the circulation. Acute kidney injury is a potential complication of severe rhabdomyolysis and the prognosis is substantially worse if renal failure develops. We try to identify the factors that were predictive of AKI in severe trauma patients with rhabdomyolysis. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at the emergency department of a level Ⅰ trauma center. Patients enrolled that initial creatine phosphokinase (CPK) levels were higher than 1000 IU with acute multiple trauma, and more than 18 years older from Oct. 2012 to June 2016. We collected demographic data (age, gender, length of hospital day, and patients’ outcome), laboratory data (ABGA, lactate, hemoglobin. hematocrit, platelet, LDH, myoglobin, liver enzyme, and BUN/Cr), and clinical data (Injury Mechanism, RTS, ISS, AIS, and TRISS). The data were compared and analyzed between AKI and Non-AKI group. Statistical analyses were performed using IMB SPSS 20.0 statistics for Window. Results: Three hundred sixty-four patients were enrolled that AKI group were ninety-six and non-AKI group were two hundred sixty-eight. The base excess (HCO3), AST/ALT, LDH, and myoglobin in AKI group were significantly higher than non-AKI group from laboratory data (p ≤ 0.05). The injury severity score (ISS), revised Trauma Score (RTS), Abbreviated Injury Scale 3 and 4 (AIS 3 and 4) were showed significant results in clinical data. The patterns of CPK level were increased from first and second day, but slightly decreased from third day in both group. Seven patients had received hemodialysis treatment despite the bleeding risk and were survived in AKI group. Conclusion: We recommend that HCO3, CPK, LDH, and myoglobin should be checked and be concerned about ISS, RTS, AIS with injury mechanism at the early stage of treatment in the emergency department.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, emergencies, multiple trauma, rhabdomyolysis

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Authors: T. Yılmaz, Ş. Tavman

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In this study, optimization of ultrasound assisted extraction (UAE) of hemicellulose based polysaccharides from plant waste material has been studied. Selected material is hazelnut skin. Extraction variables for the operation are extraction time, amplitude and application temperature. Optimum conditions have been evaluated depending on responses such as amount of wet crude polysaccharide, total carbohydrate content and dried sample. Pretreated hazelnut skin powders were used for the experiments. 10 grams of samples were suspended in 100 ml water in a jacketed vessel with additional magnetic stirring. Mixture was sonicated by immersing ultrasonic probe processor. After the extraction procedures, ethanol soluble and insoluble sides were separated for further examinations. The obtained experimental data were analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA). Second order polynomial models were developed using multiple regression analysis. The individual and interactive effects of applied variables were evaluated by Box Behnken Design. The models developed from the experimental design were predictive and good fit with the experimental data with high correlation coefficient value (R2 more than 0.95). Extracted polysaccharides from hazelnut skin are assumed to be pectic polysaccharides according to the literature survey of Fourier Transform Spectrometry (FTIR) analysis results. No more change can be observed between spectrums of different sonication times. Application of UAE at optimized condition has an important effect on extraction of hemicellulose from plant material by satisfying partial hydrolysis to break the bounds with other components in plant cell wall material. This effect can be summarized by varied intensity of microjets and microstreaming at varied sonication conditions.

Keywords: hazelnut skin, optimization, polysaccharide, ultrasound assisted extraction

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Authors: Dafna Knani, Sarit S. Sivan

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Aggrecan, one of the main components of the intervertebral disc (IVD), belongs to the family of proteoglycans (PGs) that are composed of glycosaminoglycan (GAG) chains covalently attached to a core protein. Its primary function is to maintain tissue hydration and hence disc height under the high loads imposed by muscle activity and body weight. Significant PG loss is one of the first indications of disc degeneration. A possible solution to recover disc functions is by injecting a synthetic hydrogel into the joint cavity, hence mimicking the role of PGs. One of the hydrogels proposed is GAG-analogues, based on sulfate-containing polymers, which are responsible for hydration in disc tissue. In the present work, we used molecular dynamics (MD) to study the effect of the hydrogel crosslinking (type and degree) on the swelling behavior of the suggested GAG-analogue biomimetics by calculation of cohesive energy density (CED), solubility parameter, enthalpy of mixing (ΔEmix) and the interactions between the molecules at the pure form and as a mixture with water. The simulation results showed that hydrophobicity plays an important role in the swelling of the hydrogel, as indicated by the linear correlation observed between solubility parameter values of the copolymers and crosslinker weight ratio (w/w); this correlation was found useful in predicting the amount of PEGDA needed for the desirable hydration behavior of (CS)₄-peptide. Enthalpy of mixing calculations showed that all the GAG analogs, (CS)₄ and (CS)₄-peptide are water-soluble; radial distribution function analysis revealed that they form interactions with water molecules, which is important for the hydration process. To conclude, our simulation results, beyond supporting the experimental data, can be used as a useful predictive tool in the future development of biomaterials, such as disc replacement.

Keywords: molecular dynamics, proteoglycans, enthalpy of mixing, swelling

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Authors: Stuti Modi, Aditi Kambli

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This paper addresses the need for intelligent water management and distribution system in smart cities to ensure optimal consumption and distribution of water for drinking and sanitation purposes. Water being a limited resource in cities require an effective system for collection, storage and distribution. In this paper, applications of two mostly widely used particular types of data-driven models, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic-based models, to modelling in the water resources management field are considered. The objective of this paper is to review the principles of various types and architectures of neural network and fuzzy adaptive systems and their applications to integrated water resources management. Final goal of the review is to expose and formulate progressive direction of their applicability and further research of the AI-related and data-driven techniques application and to demonstrate applicability of the neural networks, fuzzy systems and other machine learning techniques in the practical issues of the regional water management. Apart from this the paper will deal with water storage, using ANN to find optimum reservoir level and predicting peak daily demands.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, fuzzy systems, peak daily demand prediction, water management and distribution

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Authors: Atefeh Abedini, Fatemeh Razavi, Mihan Pourabdollah Toutkaboni, Hossein Mehravaran, Arda Kiani

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In countries with the highest prevalence of tuberculosis, such as Iran, the differentiation of malignant tumors from non-malignant is very important. In this study, which was conducted for the first time among the Iranian population, the utility of the ultrasonographic morphological characteristics in patients undergoing EBUS was used to distinguish the non-malignant versus malignant lymph nodes. The morphological characteristics of lymph nodes, which consist of size, shape, vascular pattern, echogenicity, margin, coagulation necrosis sign, calcification, and central hilar structure, were obtained during Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Trans-Bronchial Needle Aspiration and were compared with the final pathology results. During this study period, a total of 253 lymph nodes were evaluated in 93 cases. Round shape, non-hilar vascular pattern, heterogeneous echogenicity, hyperechogenicity, distinct margin, and the presence of necrosis sign were significantly higher in malignant nodes. On the other hand, the presence of calcification and also central hilar structure were significantly higher in the benign nodes (p-value ˂ 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression showed that size>1 cm, heterogeneous echogenicity, hyperechogenicity, the presence of necrosis signs and, the absence of central hilar structure are independent predictive factors for malignancy. The accuracy of each of the aforementioned factors is 42.29 %, 71.54 %, 71.90 %, 73.51 %, and 65.61 %, respectively. Of 74 malignant lymph nodes, 100% had at least one of these independent factors. According to our results, the morphological characteristics of lymph nodes based on Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Trans-Bronchial Needle Aspiration can play a role in the prediction of malignancy.

Keywords: EBUS-TBNA, malignancy, nodal characteristics, pathology

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Authors: Parmeet Kaur, Nighat Yaseen Sofi, Shakti Kumar Gupta, Veena Pandey, Rajvaedhan Azad

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Nutritional status and prevailing blood glucose level trends amongst hospitalized patients has been linked to clinical outcome. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to assess hospitalized Diabetic Eye Disease (DED) patients' anthropometric and dietary intake trends. DED patients with type 1 or 2 diabetes > 20 years were enrolled. Actual food intake was determined by weighed food record method. Mifflin St Joer predictive equation multiplied by a combined stress and activity factor of 1.3 was applied to estimate caloric needs. A questionnaire was further administered to obtain reasons of inadequate dietary intake. Results indicated validity of joint analyses of body mass index in combination with waist circumference for clinical risk prediction. Dietary data showed a significant difference (p < 0.0005) between average daily caloric and carbohydrate intake and actual daily caloric and carbohydrate needs. Mean fasting and post-prandial plasma glucose levels were 150.71 ± 72.200 mg/dL and 219.76 ± 97.365 mg/dL, respectively. Improvement in food delivery systems and nutrition educations were indicated for reducing plate waste and to enable better understanding of dietary aspects of diabetes management. A team approach of nurses, physicians and other health care providers is required besides the expertise of dietetics professional. To conclude, findings of the present study will be useful in planning nutritional care process (NCP) for optimizing glucose control as a component of quality medical nutrition therapy (MNT) in hospitalized DED patients.

Keywords: nutritional status, diabetic eye disease, nutrition care process, medical nutrition therapy

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Authors: Aniket Alam, Sravya Gurram

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This paper proposes a categorization of sport that is based on the system of rules that a sport must adhere to. We focus on these systems of rules to examine how a winner is produced in different sports. The rules of a sport dictate the game play and the direction it takes. We propose to break down the game play into events. At this junction, we observe two kinds of events that constitute the game play of a sport –ones that follow sequential logic and ones that do not. Our focus is pertained to sports that are comprised of sequential events. To examine these events further, to understand how a winner emerges, we take the help of finite-state automaton from the theory of computation (Automata theory). We showcase how sequential sports are eligible to be represented as finite state machines. We depict these finite state machines as state diagrams. We examine these state diagrams to observe how a team/player reaches the final states of the sport, with a special focus on one final state –the final state which determines the winner. This exercise has been carried out for the following sports: Hurdles, Track, Shot Put, Long Jump, Bowling, Badminton, Pacman and Weightlifting (Snatch). Based on our observations of how this final state of winning is achieved, we propose a categorization of sports.

Keywords: sport classification, sport modelling, ontology, automata theory

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Gaddafi Sani Shehu, Tankut Yalcınoz, Abdullahi Bala Kunya

Abstract:

Multilevel inverters such as flying capacitor, diode-clamped, and cascaded H-bridge inverters are very popular particularly in medium and high power applications. This paper focuses on a cascaded H-bridge module using a single direct current (DC) source in order to generate an 11-level output voltage. The noble approach reduces the number of switches and gate drivers, in comparison with a conventional method. The anticipated topology produces more accurate result with an isolation transformer at high switching frequency. Different modulation techniques can be used for the multilevel inverter, but this work features modulation techniques known as selective harmonic elimination (SHE).This modulation approach reduces the number of carriers with reduction in Switching Losses, Total Harmonic Distortion (THD), and thereby increasing Power Quality (PQ). Based on the simulation result obtained, it appears SHE has the ability to eliminate selected harmonics by chopping off the fundamental output component. The performance evaluation of the proposed cascaded multilevel inverter is performed using PSIM simulation package and THD of 0.94% is obtained.

Keywords: cascaded H-bridge multilevel inverter, power quality, selective harmonic elimination

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Authors: Seong Jun Yoon, Jasurbek Doliev, Sang Min Oh, Rodi Hartono, Kyoojae Shin

Abstract:

Electric power steering (EPS), which is commonly used in electric vehicles recently, is an electric-driven steering device for vehicles. Compared to hydraulic systems, EPS offers advantages such as simple system components, easy maintenance, and improved steering performance. However, because the EPS system is a nonlinear model, difficult problems arise in controller design. To address these, various machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches, notably artificial neural networks (ANN), have been applied. ANN can effectively determine relationships between inputs and outputs in a data-driven manner. This research explores two main areas: designing an EPS identifier using an ANN-based backpropagation (BP) algorithm and enhancing the EPS system controller with an ANN-based Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm. The proposed ANN-based BP algorithm shows superior performance and accuracy compared to linear transfer function estimators, while the LM algorithm offers better input angle reference tracking and faster response times than traditional PID controllers. Overall, the proposed ANN methods demonstrate significant promise in improving EPS system performance.

Keywords: ANN backpropagation modelling, electric power steering, transfer function estimator, electrical vehicle driving system

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Authors: D. S. Naumann, B. J. Evans, O. Hassan

Abstract:

This paper outlines the development of an automated aerodynamic optimisation algorithm using a novel method of parameterising a computational mesh by employing user–defined control nodes. The shape boundary movement is coupled to the movement of the novel concept of the control nodes via a quasi-1D-linear deformation. Additionally, a second order smoothing step has been integrated to act on the boundary during the mesh movement based on the change in its second derivative. This allows for both linear and non-linear shape transformations dependent on the preference of the user. The domain mesh movement is then coupled to the shape boundary movement via a Delaunay graph mapping. A Modified Cuckoo Search (MCS) algorithm is used for optimisation within the prescribed design space defined by the allowed range of control node displacement. A finite volume compressible NavierStokes solver is used for aerodynamic modelling to predict aerodynamic design fitness. The resulting coupled algorithm is applied to a range of test cases in two dimensions including the design of a subsonic, transonic and supersonic intake and the optimisation approach is compared with more conventional optimisation strategies. Ultimately, the algorithm is tested on a three dimensional wing optimisation case.

Keywords: mesh movement, aerodynamic shape optimization, cuckoo search, shape parameterisation

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Authors: Musaab Mohammed Ahmed Ali, Vladimir Vodichev

Abstract:

work deals with an universal control technique or single controller for linear and nonlinear stabilization and tracing control systems. These systems may be structured as SISO and MIMO. Parameters of controlled plants can vary over a wide range. Introduced a novel control systems design method, construction of stable platform orbits using derivative balance, solved transfer function stability preservation problem of linear system under partial substitution of a rational function. Universal controller is proposed as a polar system with the multiple orbits to simplify design procedure, where each orbit represent single order of controller transfer function. Designed controller consist of proportional, integral, derivative terms and multiple feedback and feedforward loops. The controller parameters synthesis method is presented. In generally, controller parameters depend on new polynomial equation where all parameters have a relationship with each other and have fixed values without requirements of retuning. The simulation results show that the proposed universal controller can stabilize infinity number of linear and nonlinear plants and shaping desired previously ordered performance. It has been proven that sensor errors and poor performance will be completely compensated and cannot affect system performance. Disturbances and noises effect on the controller loop will be fully rejected. Technical and economic effect of using proposed controller has been investigated and compared to adaptive, predictive, and robust controllers. The economic analysis shows the advantage of single controller with fixed parameters to drive infinity numbers of plants compared to above mentioned control techniques.

Keywords: derivative balance, fixed parameters, stable platform, universal control

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Authors: Susanne Fridsten, Kristina Hellman, Anders Sundin, Lennart Blomqvist

Abstract:

Background: Patients diagnosed with locally advanced cervical carcinoma are treated with definitive concomitant chemo-radiotherapy. Treatment failure occurs in 30-50% of patients with very poor prognoses. The treatment is standardized with risk for both over-and undertreatment. Consequently, there is a great need for biomarkers able to predict therapy outcomes to allow for individualized treatment. Aim: To explore the role of T2- and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for early prediction of therapy outcome and the optimal time point for assessment. Methods: A pilot study including 15 patients with cervical carcinoma stage IIB-IIIB (FIGO 2009) undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy. All patients underwent MRI four times, at baseline, 3 weeks, 5 weeks, and 12 weeks after treatment started. Tumour size, size change (∆size), visibility on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and change of ADC (∆ADC) at the different time points were recorded. Results: 7/15 patients relapsed during the study period, referred to as "poor prognosis", PP, and the remaining eight patients are referred to "good prognosis", GP. The tumor size was larger at all time points for PP than for GP. The ∆size between any of the four-time points was the same for PP and GP patients. The sensitivity and specificity to predict prognostic group depending on a remaining tumor on DWI were highest at 5 weeks and 83% (5/6) and 63% (5/8), respectively. The combination of tumor size at baseline and remaining tumor on DWI at 5 weeks in ROC analysis reached an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. After 12 weeks, no remaining tumor was seen on DWI among patients with GP, as opposed to 2/7 PP patients. Adding ADC to the tumor size measurements did not improve the predictive value at any time point. Conclusion: A large tumor at baseline MRI combined with a remaining tumor on DWI at 5 weeks predicted a poor prognosis.

Keywords: chemoradiotherapy, diffusion-weighted imaging, magnetic resonance imaging, uterine cervical carcinoma

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Authors: Abdelmalk Brahma

Abstract:

Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the hardening of hydraulic materials. It can, if it is not prevented, lead to significant spontaneous dimensional variations, which the cracking is one of events. In this context, cracking promotes the transport of aggressive agents in the material, which can affect the durability of concrete structures. Drying shrinkage develops over a long period almost 30 years although most occurred during the first three years. Drying shrinkage stabilizes when the material is water balance with the external environment. The drying shrinkage of cementitious materials is due to the formation of capillary tensions in the pores of the material, which has the consequences of bringing the solid walls of each other. Knowledge of the shrinkage characteristics of concrete is a necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable shrinkage movement in reinforced or prestressed concrete and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. This study is concerned the modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic materials during hardening. The model developed takes in consideration the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes correctly.

Keywords: drying, hydraulic concretes, shrinkage, modeling, prediction

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