Search results for: traumatic events

Authors: Jasmin H. Kwon , Thomas M. Brinthaupt

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There is a general lack of consumer behavior research on seasonal shopping events. Studying these kinds of events is interesting and important for several reasons. First, global shopping opportunities have implications for cross-cultural shopping events and effects on seasonal events in other countries. Second, seasonal shopping events are subject to economic conditions and may wane in popularity, especially with e-commerce options. Third, retailers can expand the success of their seasonal shopping events by taking advantage of cross-cultural opportunities. Fourth, it is interesting to consider how consumers from other countries might take advantage of different countries’ seasonal shopping events. Many countries have seasonal shopping events such as Black Friday. Research on these kinds of events can lead to the identification of cross-cultural similarities and differences in consumer behavior. We compared shopping motivations of college students who did (n=36) and did not (n=81) shop on Cyber Monday. The results showed that the groups did not differ significantly on any of the shopping motivation subscales. The Cyber Monday shoppers reported being significantly more likely to agree than disagree that their online shopping experience was enjoyable and exciting. They were more likely to disagree than agree that their experience was overwhelming. In addition, they agreed that they shopped only for deals, purchased the exact items they wanted, and thought that their efforts were worth it. Finally, they intended to shop again at next year’s Cyber Monday. It appears that there are many positive aspects to online seasonal shopping, independent of one’s typical shopping motivations. Different countries have seasonal events similar to the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping holiday (e.g., Boxing Day, Fukubukuro, China’s Singles Day). In Korea, there is increasing interest in taking advantage of U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday opportunities. Government officials are interested in adapting the U.S. holiday to Korean retailers, essentially recreating the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday there. Similarly, the Japanese Fukubukuro ('Lucky Bag') holiday is being adapted by other countries such as Korea and the U.S. International shipping support companies are also emerging that help customers to identify and receive products from other countries. U.S. department stores also provide free shipping on international orders for certain items. As these structural changes are occurring and new options for global shopping emerge, the need to understand the role of shoppers’ motivations becomes even more important. For example, the Cyber Monday results are particularly relevant to the new landscape with e-commerce and cross-cultural opportunities, since many of these events involve e-commerce. Within today’s global market, physical location of a retail store is no longer a limitation to growing one’s market share. From a consumer perspective, it is important to investigate how shopping motivations are related to e-commerce seasonal events. From a retail perspective, understanding the shopping motivations of international customers would help retailers to expand and better tailor their seasonal shopping events beyond the boundaries of their own countries. From a collaborative perspective, research on this topic can include interdisciplinary researchers, including those from fashion merchandising, marketing, retailing, and psychology.

Keywords: Black Friday, cross-cultural research, Cyber Monday, seasonal shopping behavior

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

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Authors: Milica Lazic, Jovana Jestrovic

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The aim of this research is to examine moderating role of positive and negative affect, defined as traits, in relationship between a number of stressful life events to which an individual is exposed and life satisfaction. The tendency to experience positive and negative emotions is considered as relatively independent, and life satisfaction depends on presence and intensity of emotions of different valence. However, the role of positive and negative affect can be much more complex. It can change the direction and/or intensity of correlation between a number of stressful life events and life satisfaction. Thus, this question is important for two reasons, (I) better comprehension of inconsistent result of correlation intensity between stressful events and life satisfaction (II) verification on what conditions positive and negative affect have a protective role, and on what conditions the positive and/or negative affect is vulnerability factor. Longitudinal data were collected in two waves from 660 adolescents. Firstly, participants completed the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule. A year later, Life events questionnaire, which measures the number of stressful events in the past six months and Satisfaction with Life Scale were administered. The data were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses: three-way interaction. The results show that number of life events, positive and negative effect contribute to the level of life satisfaction. The check of moderation role shows the significant three-way interaction of number of life event, and both, positive and negative affect. Individuals who report high level of positive affect, estimate to be moderate to highly satisfied with their lives, regardless of number of stressors to which they are exposed and also how often they experience negative emotions. Individuals, who often experience negative emotions and rarely positive, report the lowest level of life satisfaction. It doesn't change despite the number of stressors they were exposed to. Individuals who report that rarely experience not only positive than also negative emotions estimate different level of life satisfaction depending on number of stressors they were exposed to. Under the influence of numerous stressors, their level of life satisfaction is low, and it's equal to life satisfaction level of individuals who often experience negative and rarely positive emotions. The result of this research shows that tendency to often experience positive emotions is the protective factor in situation when individuals are exposed to high number of stressors. On the other hand, tendency to rarely experience positive emotions present vulnerability factor. Conclusions and practical implications are further discussed.

Keywords: life events, life satisfaction, subjective well-being, positive and negative affect

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Authors: Eileen Y. Wong, Katherine Jin, Anat Talmon

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Background: Help seeking behaviors are highly contingent on socio-cultural factors such as ethnicity. Both Latino and Asian Americans underutilize mental health services compared to their White American counterparts. This difference may be related to the composite of one’s social support system, which includes family cohesion and social networks. Previous studies have found that Latino families are characterized by higher levels of family cohesion and social support, and Asian American families with greater family cohesion exhibit lower levels of help seeking behaviors. While both are broadly considered collectivist communities, within-culture variability is also significant. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between help seeking behaviors in the two cultures with levels of family cohesion and strength of social network. We also consider such relationships in light of previous traumatic events and diagnoses, particularly post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), to understand whether clinically diagnosed individuals differ in their strength of network and help seeking behaviors. Method: An adult sample (N = 2,990) from the National Latino and Asian American Study (NLAAS) provided data on participants’ social network, family cohesion, likelihood of seeking professional help, and DSM-IV diagnoses. T-tests compared Latino American (n = 1,576) and Asian American respondents (n = 1,414) in strength of social network, level of family cohesion, and likelihood of seeking professional help. Linear regression models were used to identify the probability of help-seeking behavior based on ethnicity, PTSD diagnosis, and strength of social network. Results: Help-seeking behavior was significantly associated with family cohesion and strength of social network. It was found that higher frequency of expressing one’s feelings with family significantly predicted lower levels of help-seeking behaviors (β = [-.072], p = .017), while higher frequency of spending free time with family significantly predicted higher levels of help-seeking behaviors (β = [.129], p = .002) in the Asian American sample. Subjective importance of family relations compared to that of one’s peers also significantly predict higher levels of help-seeking behaviors (β = [.095], p = .011) in the Asian American sample. Frequency of sharing one’s problems with relatives significantly predicted higher levels of help-seeking behaviors (β = [.113], p < .01) in the Latino American sample. A PTSD diagnosis did not have any significant moderating effect. Conclusion: Considering the underutilization of mental health services in Latino and Asian American minority groups, it is crucial to understand ways in which help seeking behavior can be encouraged. Our findings suggest that different dimensions within family cohesion and social networks have differential impacts on help-seeking behavior. Given the multifaceted nature of family cohesion and cultural relevance, the implications of our findings for theory and practice will be discussed.

Keywords: family cohesion, social networks, Asian American, Latino American, help-seeking behavior

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Authors: Santhani M. Selveindran

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Background: Natural disasters are traumatic global events that are becoming increasing more common, with significant psychosocial impact on survivors. This impact results not only in psychosocial distress but, for many, can lead to psychosocial disorders and chronic psychopathology. While there are currently available interventions that seek to prevent and treat these psychosocial sequelae, their effectiveness is uncertain. The evidence-base is emerging with more primary studies evaluating the effectiveness of various psychosocial interventions for survivors of natural disasters, which remains to be synthesized. Aim of Review: To identify, critically appraise and synthesize the current evidence-base on the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions in preventing or treating Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and/or Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) in adults and children who are survivors of natural disasters. Methods: A protocol was developed as a guide to carry out this review. A systematic search was conducted in eight international electronic databases, three grey literature databases, one dissertation and thesis repository, websites of six humanitarian and non-governmental organizations renowned for their work on natural disasters, as well as bibliographic and citation searching for eligible articles. Papers meeting the specific inclusion criteria underwent quality assessment using the Downs and Black checklist. Data were extracted from the included papers and analysed by way of narrative synthesis. Results: Database and website searching returned 3777 papers where 31 met the criteria for inclusion. Additional 2 papers were obtained through bibliographic and citation searching. Methodological quality of most papers was fair. Twenty-five studies evaluated psychological interventions, five, social interventions whereas three studies evaluated ‘mixed’ psychological and social interventions. All studies, irrespective of methodological quality, reported post-intervention reductions in symptom scores for PTSD, depression and/or anxiety and where assessed, reduced diagnosis of PTSD and MDD, and produced improvements in self-efficacy and quality of life. Statistically significant results were seen in 27 studies. However, three studies demonstrated that the evaluated interventions may not have been very beneficial. Conclusions: The overall positive results suggest that any psychosocial interventions are favourable and should be delivered to all natural disaster survivors, irrespective of age, country, and phase of disaster. Yet, heterogeneity and methodological shortcomings of the current evidence-base makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions needed to formulate categorical guidance or frameworks. Further, rigorously conducted research is needed in this area, although the feasibility of such, given the context and nature of the problem, is also recognized.

Keywords: psychosocial interventions, natural disasters, survivors, effectiveness

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Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

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Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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Authors: Cosette Maiky

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Background: In the context of the Syrian crisis, the past few years have witnessed an exponential growth in the number of refugee mental health studies, which have essentially focused either on the affected Syrian population and/or host communities. However, the Palestinian communities in the region did not receive sufficient that much of attention. Aim: The study aimed at identifying trends and patterns of mental health and and psychosocial conditions among Palestinian refugees in the context of the Syrian crisis, including the recognition of gaps in appropriate services. Methods: The research model comprised a systematic documentary review, a mapping of available contextual analyses, a quantitative survey, focus group discussions as well as key informant interviews (with relevant stakeholders and beneficiaries). Findings: Content analysis revealed multiple effects of transgenerational transmission of trauma among Palestinian refugees in the context of the Syrian crisis, which showed to be neither linear nor one-dimensional occurrence. In addition to highlights on exposure to traumatic events and psychological sequelae, the review outlines the most prevailing coping mechanisms and essential protective factors. Conclusion: Away from a trauma-centered or symptom-focused exercise, practitioners may take account of the present study to better focus research and intervention methodologies.

Keywords: Palestine refugees, Syria crisis, psychosocial, mental health

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Marie E. Docken

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At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

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Authors: Eric Muñoz de la Torre, Julián González Trinidad, Efrén González Ramírez

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Rain varies greatly in its duration, intensity, and spatial coverage, it is important to have sub-daily rainfall data for various applications, including risk prevention. However, the ground measurements are limited by the low and irregular density of rain gauges. An alternative to this problem are the Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) that use passive microwave and infrared sensors to estimate rainfall, as IMERG, however, these SPPs have to be validated before their application. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the IMERG: Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurament final run V06B SPP in a semi-arid region of Mexico, using 4 automatic rain gauges (pluviographs) sub-daily data of October 2019 and June to September 2021, using the Minimum inter-event Time (MIT) criterion to separate unique rain events with a dry period of 10 hrs. for the purpose of evaluating the rainfall properties (depth, duration and intensity). Point to pixel analysis, continuous, categorical, and volumetric statistical metrics were used. Results show that IMERG is capable to estimate the rainfall depth with a slight overestimation but is unable to identify the real duration and intensity of the rain events, showing large overestimations and underestimations, respectively. The study zone presented 80 to 85 % of convective rain events, the rest were stratiform rain events, classified by the depth magnitude variation of IMERG pixels and pluviographs. IMERG showed poorer performance at detecting the first ones but had a good performance at estimating stratiform rain events that are originated by Cold Fronts.

Keywords: IMERG, rainfall, rain gauge, remote sensing, statistical evaluation

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Authors: Aniket Alam, Sravya Gurram

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This paper proposes a categorization of sport that is based on the system of rules that a sport must adhere to. We focus on these systems of rules to examine how a winner is produced in different sports. The rules of a sport dictate the game play and the direction it takes. We propose to break down the game play into events. At this junction, we observe two kinds of events that constitute the game play of a sport –ones that follow sequential logic and ones that do not. Our focus is pertained to sports that are comprised of sequential events. To examine these events further, to understand how a winner emerges, we take the help of finite-state automaton from the theory of computation (Automata theory). We showcase how sequential sports are eligible to be represented as finite state machines. We depict these finite state machines as state diagrams. We examine these state diagrams to observe how a team/player reaches the final states of the sport, with a special focus on one final state –the final state which determines the winner. This exercise has been carried out for the following sports: Hurdles, Track, Shot Put, Long Jump, Bowling, Badminton, Pacman and Weightlifting (Snatch). Based on our observations of how this final state of winning is achieved, we propose a categorization of sports.

Keywords: sport classification, sport modelling, ontology, automata theory

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

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Authors: Theresa Slump, Paula Neumeister, Katharina Feldker, Carina Y. Heitmann, Thomas Straube

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A characteristic feature of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is the automatic processing of disorder-specific stimuli that expresses itself in intrusive symptoms such as intense physical and psychological reactions to trauma-associated stimuli. That automatic processing plays an essential role in the development and maintenance of symptoms. The aim of our study was, therefore, to investigate the behavioral and neural correlates of automatic processing of trauma-related stimuli in PTSD. Although interpersonal traumatization is a form of traumatization that often occurs, it has not yet been sufficiently studied. That is why, in our study, we focused on patients suffering from interpersonal traumatization. While previous imaging studies on PTSD mainly used faces, words, or generally negative visual stimuli, our study presented complex trauma-related and neutral visual scenes. We examined 19 female subjects suffering from PTSD and examined 19 healthy women as a control group. All subjects did a geometric comparison task while lying in a functional-magnetic-resonance-imaging (fMRI) scanner. Trauma-related scenes and neutral visual scenes that were not relevant to the task were presented while the subjects were doing the task. Regarding the behavioral level, there were not any significant differences between the task performance of the two groups. Regarding the neural level, the PTSD patients showed significant hyperactivation of the hippocampus for task-irrelevant trauma-related stimuli versus neutral stimuli when compared with healthy control subjects. Connectivity analyses revealed altered connectivity between the hippocampus and other anxiety-related areas in PTSD patients, too. Overall, those findings suggest that fear-related areas are involved in PTSD patients' processing of trauma-related stimuli even if the stimuli that were used in the study were task-irrelevant.

Keywords: post-traumatic stress disorder, automatic processing, hippocampus, functional magnetic resonance imaging

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Authors: Doki Naomi Onyeje, Doki Gowon Ama

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The past 4 years have been traumatic for Nigerians, having to deal with a number of complex economic issues with dire consequences for the economy. Households have had to respond variously to some of these problems in peculiar ways, depending, of course, on the nature and character of a particular shock. The type, magnitude, intensity and duration of a particular shock might be the determinant of different household responses. While households’ responses to the Global Financial Crisis and Covid 19 Pandemic have been documented by researchers, other economic shocks have continued to emerge in Nigeria. The dramatic turn of events since coming on board of the new government on May 29th 2023, has introduced a new economic twist that households will have to adjust to. This study, therefore, sets out to examine household responses by disaggregating them by their livelihood sources. A survey of 420 households across North Central Nigeria will be done to generate information on the respective responses. A Multinomial logit regression analysis will be employed to test the hypothesis that livelihood source(s) influences household responses to economic shocks. Consequently, responses from public and private households will be examined. The expected results should be that household responses might have some similarities, but it is expected that some peculiar responses across groups will emerge and these differences will guide for group-specific interventions. The Theatre for Development (TfD) approach will be used to disseminate and propagate results from this study to and among stakeholders for effective policy frameworks.

Keywords: drama, dynamics, economic shocks, household responses, Nigeria

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Authors: Elsher Lawson-Boyd

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In the wake of the Human Genome Project, the life sciences have undergone some fascinating changes. In particular, conventional beliefs relating to gene expression are being challenged by advances in postgenomic sciences, especially by the field of epigenetics. Epigenetics is the modification of gene expression without changes in the DNA sequence. In other words, epigenetics dictates that gene expression, the process by which the instructions in DNA are converted into products like proteins, is not solely controlled by DNA itself. Unlike gene-centric theories of heredity that characterized much of the 20th Century (where the genes were considered as having almost god-like power to create life), gene expression in epigenetics insists on environmental ‘signals’ or ‘exposures’, a point that radically deviates from gene-centric thinking. Science and Technology Studies (STS) scholars have shown that epigenetic research is having vast implications for the ways in which chronic, non-communicable diseases are conceptualized, treated, and governed. However, to the author’s knowledge, there have not yet been any in-depth sociological engagements with neuroepigenetics that examine how the field is affecting mental health and trauma discourse. In this paper, the author discusses preliminary findings from a doctoral ethnographic study on neuroepigenetics, trauma, and embodiment. Specifically, this study investigates the kinds of causal relations neuroepigenetic researchers are making between experiences of trauma and the development of mental illnesses like complex post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), both throughout a human’s lifetime and across generations. Using qualitative interviews and nonparticipant observation, the author focuses on two public-facing research centers based in Melbourne: Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health (FNMH), and Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI). Preliminary findings indicate that a great deal of ambiguity characterizes this infant field, particularly when animal-model experiments are employed and the results are translated into human frameworks. Nevertheless, researchers at the FNMH and MCRI strongly suggest that adverse and traumatic life events have a significant effect on gene expression, especially when experienced during early development. Furthermore, they predict that neuroepigenetic research will have substantial implications for the ways in which mental illnesses like complex PTSD are diagnosed and treated. These preliminary findings shed light on why medical and health sociologists have good reason to be chiming in, engaging with and de-black-boxing ideations emerging from postgenomic sciences, as they may indeed have significant effects for vulnerable populations not only in Australia but other developing countries in the Global South.

Keywords: genetics, mental illness, neuroepigenetics, trauma

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Hasan Uzun

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Flood is the event which damage to the surrounding lands, residential places, infrastructure and vibrant, because of the streams overflow events from its bed for several reasons. Flood is a natural formation which develops due to its region's climatic conditions, technical and topographical characteristics. However, factors causing floods with global warming caused by human activity are events such as uncontrolled urbanization. Floods in Turkey are natural disasters which cause huge economic losses after the earthquake. At the same time, the flood disaster is one of the most observed hydrometeorological disasters, compared to 30%, in Turkey. Every year, there are around 200 flood-flood disasters and the disaster as a result of financial losses of $ 100 million per year are reported to occur in public institutions. The amount allocated for carrying out investment-project activities for reducing and controlling of flood damage control are around US $ 30 million per year. The existence of a linear increase in the number of flood disasters is noteworthy due to various reasons in the last 50 years of observation. In this study, first of all, big events of the flood in Turkey and their reasons were examined. And then, the information about the work to be done in order to prevent flooding by government was given with examples. Meteorological early warning systems, flood risk maps and regulation of urban development studies are described for this purpose. As a result, recommendations regarding in the event of the occurrence of floods disaster management were issues raised.

Keywords: flood, disaster, disaster management, Türkiye

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Authors: Carmen Soria

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The aim of this paper is the study of the cultural and anthropological consequences of the historical natural disasters in Abruzzo (Italy, Central Apennine). These events have left cultural marks in local traditions as well as mythological stories, specific cults, or sanctuary areas in apotropaic function to prevent catastrophic events. Despite the difficult to find archaeological evidence of natural disasters, neverthless, the analisys of micro placenames, directly or indirectly related to such events, represents an integrated and interdisciplinary approach between seismology studies and landscape analysis. Toponymic data, indeed, highlight the strong relation between geomorphological features of areas affected by natural disasters and heritage community resilience, such as, for example, the cult of St. Agatha, widespread in the nearby of healing spring-water and ancient caves as a place of worship, in continuity with pagan rituals.

Keywords: abruzzo, heritage community resilience, seismic planames, St. agata

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Authors: Lyndsey Kim

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We utilized country-level data on suicide rates from 1985 through 2015 provided by the WHO to explore global trends as well as country-specific trends. First, we find that up until 1995, there was an increase in suicide rates globally, followed by a steep decline in deaths. This observation is largely driven by the data from Europe, where suicides are prominent but steadily declining. Second, men are more likely to commit suicide than women across the world over the years. Third, the older generation is more likely to commit suicide than youth and adults. Finally, we turn to Durkheim’s theory and use it as a lens to understand trends in suicide across time and countries and attempt to identify social and economic events that might explain patterns that we observe. For example, we discovered a drastically different pattern in suicide rates in the US, with a steep increase in suicides in the early 2000s. We hypothesize this might be driven by both the 9/11 attacks and the recession of 2008.

Keywords: suicide trends, current events, data analysis, world health organization, durkheim theory

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Gökhan Altay, Cafer Kayadelen

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Rock fall is a movement of huge rock blocks from dip slopes due to physical effects. It generally occurs where loose tuffs lying under basalt flow or stringcourse is being constituted by limestone layers which stand on clay. By corrosion of some parts, big cracks occur on layers and these cracks continue to grow with the effect of freezing-thawing. In this way, the breaking rocks fall down from these dip slopes. Earthquakes which can induce lots of rock movements is another reason for rock fall events. In Turkey, we have a large number of regions prone to the earthquake as in the World so this increases the possibility of rock fall events. A great number of rock fall events take place in Turkey as in the World every year. The rock fall events occurring in urban areas cause serious damages in houses, roads and workplaces. Sometimes it also hinders transportation and furthermore it maybe kills people. In Turkey, rock fall events happen mostly in Spring and Winter because of freezing- thawing of water in rock cracks frequently. In mountain and inclined areas, rock fall is risky for engineering construction and environment. Some countries can invest significant money for these risky areas. For instance, in Switzerland, approximately 6.7 million dollars is spent annually for a distance of 4 km, to the systems to prevent rock fall events. In Turkey, we have lots of urban areas and engineering structure that have the rock fall risk. The embankments are preferable for rock fall events because of its low maintenance and repair costs. Also, embankments are able to absorb much more energy according to other protection systems. The current design method of embankments is only depended on field tests results so there are inadequate studies about this design method. In this paper, the field test modeled in three dimensions and analysis are carried out with the help of ANSYS programme. By the help of field test from literature the numerical model validated. After the validity of numerical models additional parametric studies performed. Changes in deformation of embankments are investigated by the changes in, geometry, velocity and impact height of falling rocks.

Keywords: ANSYS, embankment, impact height, numerical analysis, rock fall

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Authors: Salima Kerai, Muhammad Islam, Uzma Khan, Nargis Asad, Junaid Razzak, Omrana Pasha

Abstract:

Background: Pre-hospital care providers are exposed to various kinds of stressors. Their daily exposure to diverse critical and traumatic incidents can lead to stress reactions like Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Consequences of PTSD in terms of work loss can be catastrophic because of its compound effect on families, which affect them economically, socially and emotionally. Therefore, it is critical to assess the association between PTSD and Work performance in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) if exist any. Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out at AMAN EMS in Karachi, Pakistan. EMS personnel were screened for potential PTSD using impact of event scale-revised (IES-R). Work performance was assessed on basis of five variables; number of late arrivals to work, number of days absent, number of days sick, adherence to protocol and patient satisfaction survey over the period of 3 months. In order to model outcomes like number of late arrivals to work, days absent and days late; negative binomial regression was used whereas logistic regression was applied for adherence to protocol and linear for patient satisfaction scores. Results: Out of 536 EMS personnel, 525 were found to be eligible, of them 518 consented. However data on 507 were included because 7 left the job during study period. The mean score of PTSD was found to be 24.0 ± 12.2. However, weak and insignificant association was found between PTSD and work performance measures: number of late arrivals (RRadj 0.99; 95% CI 0.98-1.00), days absent (RRadj 0.98; 95% CI 0.96-0.99), days sick (Rradj 0.99; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00), adherence to protocol (ORadj 1.01: 95% CI 0.99 to 1.04) and patient satisfaction (0.001% score; 95% CI -0.03% to 0.03%). Conclusion: No association was found between PTSD and Work performance in the selected EMS population in Karachi Pakistan. Further studies are needed to explore the phenomenon of resiliency in these populations. Moreover, qualitative work is required to explore perceptions and feelings like willingness to go to work, readiness to carry out job responsibilities.

Keywords: trauma, emergency medical service, stress, pakistan

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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Authors: Tanu Khanuja, Harikrishnan N. Unni

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Head is the most vulnerable part of human body and may cause severe life threatening injuries. As the in vivo brain response cannot be recorded during injury, computational investigation of the head model could be really helpful to understand the injury mechanism. Majority of the physical damage to living tissues are caused by relative motion within the tissue due to tensile and shearing structural failures. The present Finite Element study focuses on investigating intracranial pressure and stress/strain distributions resulting from impact loads on various sites of human head. This is performed by the development of the 3D model of a human head with major segments like cerebrum, cerebellum, brain stem, CSF (cerebrospinal fluid), and skull from patient specific MRI (magnetic resonance imaging). The semi-automatic segmentation of head is performed using AMIRA software to extract finer grooves of the brain. To maintain the accuracy high number of mesh elements are required followed by high computational time. Therefore, the mesh optimization has also been performed using tetrahedral elements. In addition, model validation with experimental literature is performed as well. Hard tissues like skull is modeled as elastic whereas soft tissues like brain is modeled with viscoelastic prony series material model. This paper intends to obtain insights into the severity of brain injury by analyzing impacts on frontal, top, back, and temporal sites of the head. Yield stress (based on von Mises stress criterion for tissues) and intracranial pressure distribution due to impact on different sites (frontal, parietal, etc.) are compared and the extent of damage to cerebral tissues is discussed in detail. This paper finds that how the back impact is more injurious to overall head than the other. The present work would be helpful to understand the injury mechanism of traumatic brain injury more effectively.

Keywords: dynamic impact analysis, finite element analysis, intracranial pressure, MRI, traumatic brain injury, von Misses stress

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Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

Abstract:

Hosting international major sports events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. Most modern countries believe that MSEs can bring the hosting countries with substantial and considerable economic and non-economic benefits; so many cities also input a huge of resources to bid for hosting MSEs. Despite the growing importance of MSEs, limited longitudinal analysis has been carried out to understand and explain the long term economic effects of such events. This paper is to continue the focus of previous literature on the economic effects of hosting MSEs. The study periods are from 1950 to 2014 and the secondary macro-economic data are selected from the countries that have hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games (including summer and winter) to precede a longitudinal analysis. A comparison of the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade of hosting countries and the duration of these economic effects are also explored and discussed. Based on the countries’ attributes and locating area, aiming to ascertain whether hosting MSEs is economically worthwhile and whether the economic effects from MSEs are realized as anticipated. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like GDP growth or long-term employment may be a myth even for developing countries. However, the empirical findings can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.

Keywords: Asian Games, economic effects, major sports events (MSEs), olympic games

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Authors: Padma Sree Potru

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Abstract: A co-relational descriptive study was conducted to assess the impact of cancer event on self, on family, coping strategies of cancer clients and quality of life among them in G.G.H., Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India. Aim: The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of cancer events on self, on family, coping of clients and quality of life among cancer patients. Methods: 50 cancer patients were selected through random sampling technique. The data were obtained by using impact of events scale, impact on family scale, coping health inventory and WHOQOL-BREF scale. Results: The results revealed that majority (32%) of them were in the age group of 36-45 years, 72% were females, 44% were having the income of Rs. 5001-10000/- per month, 40% were working for daily wage, and 15% were newly diagnosed of cancer. Among 50 cancer patients, 65% had extreme impact of events, 61% shows extreme impact on family, 46% possess minimal coping strategies and 68% had poor quality of life. This study focuses on that there is a strong positive correlation between quality of life and coping behavior r=0.603 and also between impact of event and impact on family r=0.610, but a negative correlation existed between quality of life and impact of events r= -0.201. ANOVA test reveals that there is a significant difference between subscales of impact on family and coping behavior with f values = 3.893, 3.957 respectively. Chi-square highlights that there is a significant association between impact of events with age, occupation and impact on family with duration of illness. Conclusion: Even though cancer is a dreadful disease still there are many emerging treatment modalities and innovative procedures which are focusing on improving the standards of life among cancer clients. But all this can happen only when the clients accepts the reality, increase their willpower and confidence, desire to live, focusing on coping mechanisms and good ongoing support from the family members.

Keywords: impact of event, impact on family, coping, quality of event

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Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

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We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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Authors: Carmen Nechita

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This research explores the world of Syrian refugee women living in Dresden and their efforts to reconstruct their lives in the state of Saxony in Germany. The focus is on the initial period of adjustment and understanding how refugee women use culture, family ties, and tradition to contest and rebuild new relationships with the host country. Faced with a new status as “the refugee”, women have to re-imagine their ethno-cultural identity in order to cope with life in Diaspora. In order to understand the coping mechanism and the displacement effects on Syrian women, interviews with twelve refugee women were conducted. Traumatic experiences of loss and oppression are at the core of their confessions. While gender violence, abuse and patriarchal framework shape their narratives, this research argues that there is a need to look at this from a cultural perspective and try to distance ourselves from the western paradigm. The way Syrian women refute and rebuild their national and ethno-cultural identity in order to negotiate for themselves new space within German borders is explored. Two discourses are bridged: one of multiculturalism and one of tradition in order to explain how Syrian women experience western notions of family, womanhood and spousal dynamics. The process is painful, traumatic and marked by feelings of low self-worth, but in the end, new codes emerge and these women come out more empowered. The paper includes the migration experience and explores the ways in which Syrian refugee women tend to tell their complex stories, and how they reconstruct their identity in a new territory while faced with a different culture that discriminates against them. During the research, four distinct phases in the acculturation period were identified: “the survival”, “the honeymoon period”, “the isolation period” and “the anger period”. Each phase is analyzed in order to understand what triggers them, how women migrate from one phase to another and what can be done to make the process easier. This paper contributes to the field of refugee studies by offering a thorough understanding of the initial phases of the acculturation process in the case of Syrian refugee women. The study examines the fleeing and settlement experience in order to understand the complex ways that refugee women cope with the traumatic experience of settlement in another country and in a different culture. *Almanya: The Arabic word for Germany.

Keywords: displacement, migration, refugee women, Syria

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Authors: Renu Saini, Deepak Agrawal

Abstract:

Background: Patients with head and spinal cord injury frequently have deranged coagulation profiles and require blood products transfusion perioperatively. Thromboelastography (TEG) is a ‘bedside’ global test of coagulation which may have role in deciding the need of transfusion in such patients. Aim: To assess the usefulness of TEG in department of neurosurgery in decreasing transfusion rates and coagulation-related mortality in traumatic head and spinal cord injury. Method and Methodology: A retrospective comparative study was carried out in the department of neurosurgery over a period of 1 year. There are two groups in this study. ‘Control’ group constitutes the patients in whom data was collected over 6 months (1/6/2009-31/12/2009) prior to installation of TEG machine. ‘Test’ group includes patients in whom data was collected over 6months (1/1/2013-30/6/2013) post TEG installation. Total no. of platelet, FFP, and cryoprecipitate transfusions were noted in both groups along with in hospital mortality and length of stay. Result: Both groups were matched in age and sex of patients, number of head and spinal cord injury cases, number of patients with thrombocytopenia and number of patients who underwent operation. Total 178 patients (135 head injury and 43 spinal cord injury patents) were admitted in neurosurgery department during time period June 2009 to December 2009 i.e. prior to TEG installation and after TEG installation a total of 243 patients(197 head injury and 46 spinal cord injury patents) were admitted. After TEG introduction platelet transfusion significantly reduced (p=0.000) compare to control group (67 units to 34 units). Mortality rate was found significantly reduced after installation (77 patients to 57 patients, P=0.000). Length of stay was reduced significantly (Prior installation 1-211days and after installation 1-115days, p=0.02). Conclusion: Bedside TEG can dramatically reduce platelet transfusion components requirement in department of neurosurgery. TEG also lead to a drastic decrease in mortality rate and length of stay in patients with traumatic head and spinal cord injuries. We recommend its use as a standard of care in the patients with traumatic head and spinal cord injuries.

Keywords: blood component transfusion, mortality, neurosurgery ICU, thromboelastography

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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The design of sewerage systems is directly related to rainfall, which has a highly random character. Showers are usually described by three characteristics: intensity, volume and duration. Several studies considered only in two of the three models. The objective of our work is to perform an analysis of the impact of three variables on put in charge of sewerage system, responsible for misbehavior, origin of urban flooding. 30 events were considered events for the longest, most rushed and most intense period which runs from 1986 -2001. We built the IDF curves and heavy projects double symmetrical triangles associated with this selection. A simulation of the operation, with the model canoe, sewage from the city of Annaba (Algeria) in the three rain solicitation project, double triangles associated with events considered. It appears that the sewage of the city of Annaba, in terms of charging, is much more sensitive to rain most precipitous, and the more intense causing loadings and last the longest. Further analysis of all the rain and the field measurements are underway to confirm the test simulations.

Keywords: intensity, volume, duration, sewerage, design, simulation

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Authors: Soheila Zhaeentan, Anders Von Heijne, Elisabet Hagert, André Stark, Björn Salomonsson

Abstract:

Recommended treatment for traumatic rotator cuff tear (TRCT) is surgery within a few weeks after injury if the diagnosis is made early, especially if a functional impairment of the shoulder exists. This may lead to the assumption that a poor outcome then can be expected in delayed surgical treatment, when the patient is diagnosed at a later stage. The aim of this study was to investigate if a surgical repair later than three months after injury may result in successful outcomes and patient satisfaction. There is evidence in literature that good results of treatment can be expected up to three months after the injury, but little is known of later treatment with cuff repair. 73 patients (75 shoulders), 58 males/17 females, mean age 59 (range 34-­‐72), who had undergone surgical intervention for TRCT between January 1999 to December 2011 at our clinic, were included in this study. Patients were assessed by MRI investigation, clinical examination, Western Ontario Rotator Cuff index (WORC), Oxford Shoulder Score, Constant-­‐Murley Score, EQ-­‐5D and patient subjective satisfaction at follow-­‐up. The patients treated surgically within three months ( < 12 weeks) after injury (39 cases) were compared with patients treated more than three months ( ≥ 12 weeks) after injury (36 cases). WORC was used as the primary outcome measure and the other variables as secondary. A senior consultant radiologist, blinded to patient category and clinical outcome, evaluated all MRI-­‐images. Rotator cuff integrity, presence of arthritis, fatty degeneration and muscle atrophy was evaluated in all cases. The average follow-­‐up time was 56 months (range 14-­‐149) and the average time from injury to repair was 16 weeks (range 3-­‐104). No statistically significant differences were found for any of the assessed parameters or scores between the two groups. The mean WORC score was 77 (early group, range 25-­‐ 100 and late group, range 27-­‐100) for both groups (p= 0.86), Constant-­‐Murley Score (p= 0.91), Oxford Shoulder Score (p= 0.79), EQ-­‐5D index (p= 0.86). Re-­‐tear frequency was 24% for both groups, and the patients with re-­‐tear reported less satisfaction with outcome. Discussion and conclusion: This study shows that surgical repair of TRCT performed later than three months after injury may result in good functional outcomes and patient satisfaction. However, this does not motivate an intentional delay in surgery when there is an indication for surgical repair as that delay may adversely affect the possibility to perform a repair. Our results show that surgeons may safely consider surgical repair even if a delay in diagnosis has occurred. A retrospective cohort study on 75 shoulders shows good functional result after traumatic rotator cuff tear (TRCT) treated surgically up to one year after the injury.

Keywords: traumatic rotator cuff injury, time to surgery, surgical outcome, retrospective cohort study

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