Search results for: recruitment model
16675 Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method with Dynamic Normal Inverse Gaussian Mortality Index
Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür
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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 35416674 Combining the Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Range-GARCH Models to Improve Covariance Forecasts
Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár
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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 17816673 High Performance Computing Enhancement of Agent-Based Economic Models
Authors: Amit Gill, Lalith Wijerathne, Sebastian Poledna
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This research presents the details of the implementation of high performance computing (HPC) extension of agent-based economic models (ABEMs) to simulate hundreds of millions of heterogeneous agents. ABEMs offer an alternative approach to study the economy as a dynamic system of interacting heterogeneous agents, and are gaining popularity as an alternative to standard economic models. Over the last decade, ABEMs have been increasingly applied to study various problems related to monetary policy, bank regulations, etc. When it comes to predicting the effects of local economic disruptions, like major disasters, changes in policies, exogenous shocks, etc., on the economy of the country or the region, it is pertinent to study how the disruptions cascade through every single economic entity affecting its decisions and interactions, and eventually affect the economic macro parameters. However, such simulations with hundreds of millions of agents are hindered by the lack of HPC enhanced ABEMs. In order to address this, a scalable Distributed Memory Parallel (DMP) implementation of ABEMs has been developed using message passing interface (MPI). A balanced distribution of computational load among MPI-processes (i.e. CPU cores) of computer clusters while taking all the interactions among agents into account is a major challenge for scalable DMP implementations. Economic agents interact on several random graphs, some of which are centralized (e.g. credit networks, etc.) whereas others are dense with random links (e.g. consumption markets, etc.). The agents are partitioned into mutually-exclusive subsets based on a representative employer-employee interaction graph, while the remaining graphs are made available at a minimum communication cost. To minimize the number of communications among MPI processes, real-life solutions like the introduction of recruitment agencies, sales outlets, local banks, and local branches of government in each MPI-process, are adopted. Efficient communication among MPI-processes is achieved by combining MPI derived data types with the new features of the latest MPI functions. Most of the communications are overlapped with computations, thereby significantly reducing the communication overhead. The current implementation is capable of simulating a small open economy. As an example, a single time step of a 1:1 scale model of Austria (i.e. about 9 million inhabitants and 600,000 businesses) can be simulated in 15 seconds. The implementation is further being enhanced to simulate 1:1 model of Euro-zone (i.e. 322 million agents).Keywords: agent-based economic model, high performance computing, MPI-communication, MPI-process
Procedia PDF Downloads 12116672 The Establishment of RELAP5/SNAP Model for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant
Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu
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After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR
Procedia PDF Downloads 42316671 QoS-CBMG: A Model for e-Commerce Customer Behavior
Authors: Hoda Ghavamipoor, S. Alireza Hashemi Golpayegani
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An approach to model the customer interaction with e-commerce websites is presented. Considering the service quality level as a predictive feature, we offer an improved method based on the Customer Behavior Model Graph (CBMG), a state-transition graph model. To derive the Quality of Service sensitive-CBMG (QoS-CBMG) model, process-mining techniques is applied to pre-processed website server logs which are categorized as ‘buy’ or ‘visit’. Experimental results on an e-commerce website data confirmed that the proposed method outperforms CBMG based method.Keywords: customer behavior model, electronic commerce, quality of service, customer behavior model graph, process mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 40616670 Model Based Simulation Approach to a 14-Dof Car Model Using Matlab/Simulink
Authors: Ishit Sheth, Chandrasekhar Jinendran, Chinmaya Ranjan Sahu
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A fourteen degree of freedom (DOF) ride and handling control mathematical model is developed for a car using generalized boltzmann hamel equation which will create a basis for design of ride and handling controller. Mathematical model developed yield equations of motion for non-holonomic constrained systems in quasi-coordinates. The governing differential equation developed integrates ride and handling control of car. Model-based systems engineering approach is implemented for simulation using matlab/simulink, vehicle’s response in different DOF is examined and later validated using commercial software (ADAMS). This manuscript involves detailed derivation of full car vehicle model which provides response in longitudinal, lateral and yaw motion to demonstrate the advantages of the developed model over the existing dynamic model. The dynamic behaviour of the developed ride and handling model is simulated for different road conditions.Keywords: Full Vehicle Model, MBSE, Non Holonomic Constraints, Boltzmann Hamel Equation
Procedia PDF Downloads 21216669 Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model in Agile Construction Environment
Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė
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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 24816668 Formal Verification of Cache System Using a Novel Cache Memory Model
Authors: Guowei Hou, Lixin Yu, Wei Zhuang, Hui Qin, Xue Yang
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Formal verification is proposed to ensure the correctness of the design and make functional verification more efficient. As cache plays a vital role in the design of System on Chip (SoC), and cache with Memory Management Unit (MMU) and cache memory unit makes the state space too large for simulation to verify, then a formal verification is presented for such system design. In the paper, a formal model checking verification flow is suggested and a new cache memory model which is called “exhaustive search model” is proposed. Instead of using large size ram to denote the whole cache memory, exhaustive search model employs just two cache blocks. For cache system contains data cache (Dcache) and instruction cache (Icache), Dcache memory model and Icache memory model are established separately using the same mechanism. At last, the novel model is employed to the verification of a cache which is module of a custom-built SoC system that has been applied in practical, and the result shows that the cache system is verified correctly using the exhaustive search model, and it makes the verification much more manageable and flexible.Keywords: cache system, formal verification, novel model, system on chip (SoC)
Procedia PDF Downloads 48816667 Development of Simple-To-Apply Biogas Kinetic Models for the Co-Digestion of Food Waste and Maize Husk
Authors: Owamah Hilary, O. C. Izinyon
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Many existing biogas kinetic models are difficult to apply to substrates they were not developed for, as they are substrate specific. Biodegradability kinetic (BIK) model and maximum biogas production potential and stability assessment (MBPPSA) model were therefore developed in this study for the anaerobic co-digestion of food waste and maize husk. Biodegradability constant (k) was estimated as 0.11d-1 using the BIK model. The results of maximum biogas production potential (A) obtained using the MBPPSA model corresponded well with the results obtained using the popular but complex modified Gompertz model for digesters B-1, B-2, B-3, B-4, and B-5. The (If) value of MBPPSA model also showed that digesters B-3, B-4, and B-5 were stable, while B-1 and B-2 were unstable. Similar stability observation was also obtained using the modified Gompertz model. The MBPPSA model can therefore be used as alternative model for anaerobic digestion feasibility studies and plant design.Keywords: biogas, inoculum, model development, stability assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 41816666 Reflection on Using Bar Model Method in Learning and Teaching Primary Mathematics: A Hong Kong Case Study
Authors: Chui Ka Shing
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This case study research attempts to examine the use of the Bar Model Method approach in learning and teaching mathematics in a primary school in Hong Kong. The objectives of the study are to find out to what extent (a) the Bar Model Method approach enhances the construction of students’ mathematics concepts, and (b) the school-based mathematics curriculum development with adopting the Bar Model Method approach. This case study illuminates the effectiveness of using the Bar Model Method to solve mathematics problems from Primary 1 to Primary 6. Some effective pedagogies and assessments were developed to strengthen the use of the Bar Model Method across year levels. Suggestions including school-based curriculum development for using Bar Model Method and further study were discussed.Keywords: bar model method, curriculum development, mathematics education, problem solving
Procedia PDF Downloads 21316665 Alternating Current Photovoltaic Module Model
Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar
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This paper presents modeling of a Alternating Current (AC) Photovoltaic (PV) module using Matlab/Simulink. The proposed AC-PV module model is simple, realistic, and application oriented. The model is derived on module level as compared to cell level directly from the information provided by the manufacturer data sheet. DC-PV module, MPPT control, BC, VSI and LC filter, all were treated as a single unit. The model accounts for changes in variations of both irradiance and temperature. The AC-PV module proposed model is simulated and the results are compared with the datasheet projected numbers to validate model’s accuracy and effectiveness. Implementation and results demonstrate simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.Keywords: PV modeling, AC PV Module, datasheet, VI curves irradiance, temperature, MPPT, Matlab/Simulink
Procedia PDF Downloads 56016664 Model of Optimal Centroids Approach for Multivariate Data Classification
Authors: Pham Van Nha, Le Cam Binh
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Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a population-based stochastic optimization algorithm. PSO was inspired by the natural behavior of birds and fish in migration and foraging for food. PSO is considered as a multidisciplinary optimization model that can be applied in various optimization problems. PSO’s ideas are simple and easy to understand but PSO is only applied in simple model problems. We think that in order to expand the applicability of PSO in complex problems, PSO should be described more explicitly in the form of a mathematical model. In this paper, we represent PSO in a mathematical model and apply in the multivariate data classification. First, PSOs general mathematical model (MPSO) is analyzed as a universal optimization model. Then, Model of Optimal Centroids (MOC) is proposed for the multivariate data classification. Experiments were conducted on some benchmark data sets to prove the effectiveness of MOC compared with several proposed schemes.Keywords: analysis of optimization, artificial intelligence based optimization, optimization for learning and data analysis, global optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 20216663 Lean Impact Analysis Assessment Models: Development of a Lean Measurement Structural Model
Authors: Catherine Maware, Olufemi Adetunji
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The paper is aimed at developing a model to measure the impact of Lean manufacturing deployment on organizational performance. The model will help industry practitioners to assess the impact of implementing Lean constructs on organizational performance. It will also harmonize the measurement models of Lean performance with the house of Lean that seems to have become the industry standard. The sheer number of measurement models for impact assessment of Lean implementation makes it difficult for new adopters to select an appropriate assessment model or deployment methodology. A literature review is conducted to classify the Lean performance model. Pareto analysis is used to select the Lean constructs for the development of the model. The model is further formalized through the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in defining the underlying latent structure of a Lean system. An impact assessment measurement model developed can be used to measure Lean performance and can be adopted by different industries.Keywords: impact measurement model, lean bundles, lean manufacturing, organizational performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 47716662 Development of an Analytical Model for a Synchronous Permanent Magnet Generator
Authors: T. Sahbani, M. Bouteraa, R. Wamkeue
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Wind Turbine are considered to be one of the more efficient system of energy production nowadays, a reason that leads the main industrial companies in wind turbine construction and researchers in over the world to look for better performance and one of the ways for that is the use of the synchronous permanent magnet generator. In this context, this work is about developing an analytical model that could simulate different situation in which the synchronous generator may go through, and of course this model match perfectly with the numerical and experimental model.Keywords: MATLAB, synchronous permanent magnet generator, wind turbine, analytical model
Procedia PDF Downloads 54116661 Forecasting Materials Demand from Multi-Source Ordering
Authors: Hui Hsin Huang
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The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.Keywords: recency, ordering time, materials demand quantity, multi-source ordering
Procedia PDF Downloads 52916660 Survival Analysis Based Delivery Time Estimates for Display FAB
Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek
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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model
Procedia PDF Downloads 53416659 A Platform to Analyze Controllers for Solar Hot Water Systems
Authors: Aziz Ahmad, Guillermo Ramirez-Prado
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Governments around the world encourage the use of solar water heating in residential houses due to the low maintenance requirements and efficiency of the solar collector water heating systems. The aim of this work is to study a domestic solar water heating system in a residential building to develop a model of the entire solar water heating system including flat-plate solar collector and storage tank. The proposed model is adaptable to any households and location. The model can be used to test different types of controllers and can provide efficiency as well as economic analysis. The proposed model is based on the heat and mass transfer equations along with assumptions applied in the model which can be modified for a variety of different solar water heating systems and sizes. Simulation results of the model were compared with the actual system which shows similar trends.Keywords: solar thermal systems, solar water heating, solar collector model, hot water tank model, solar controllers
Procedia PDF Downloads 26216658 A Controlled Mathematical Model for Population Dynamics in an Infested Honeybees Colonies
Authors: Chakib Jerry, Mounir Jerry
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In this paper, a mathematical model of infested honey bees colonies is formulated in order to investigate Colony Collapse Disorder in a honeybee colony. CCD, as it is known, is a major problem on honeybee farms because of the massive decline in colony numbers. We introduce to the model a control variable which represents forager protection. We study the controlled model to derive conditions under which the bee colony can fight off epidemic. Secondly we study the problem of minimizing prevention cost under model’s dynamics constraints.Keywords: honey bee, disease transmission model, disease control honeybees, optimal control
Procedia PDF Downloads 41616657 Hospital 4.0 Maturity Assessment Model Development: Case of Moroccan Public Hospitals
Authors: T. Benazzouz, K. Auhmani
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This paper presents a Hospital 4.0 Maturity Assessment Model based on the Industry 4.0 concepts. The self-assessment model defines current and target states of digital transformation by considering multiple aspects of a hospital and a healthcare supply chain. The developed model was validated and evaluated on real-life cases. The resulting model consisted of 5 domains: Technology, Strategy 4.0, Human resources 4.0 & Culture 4.0, Supply chain 4.0 management, and Patient journeys management. Each domain is further divided into several sub-domains, totally 34 sub-domains are identified, that reflect different facets of a hospital 4.0 mature organization.Keywords: hospital 4.0, Industry 4.0, maturity assessment model, supply chain 4.0, patient
Procedia PDF Downloads 7916656 Numerical Simulations of the Transition Flow of Model Propellers for Predicting Open Water Performance
Authors: Huilan Yao, Huaixin Zhang
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Simulations of the transition flow of model propellers are important for predicting hydrodynamic performance and studying scale effects. In this paper, the transition flow of a model propeller under different loadings are simulated using a transition model provided by STAR-CCM+, and the influence of turbulence intensity (TI) on the transition, especially friction and pressure components of propeller performance, was studied. Before that, the transition model was applied to simulate the transition flow of a flat plate and an airfoil. Predicted transitions agree well with experimental results. Then, the transition model was applied for propeller simulations in open water, and the influence of TI was studied. Under the heavy and moderate loadings, thrust and torque of the propeller predicted by the transition model (different TI) and two turbulence models are very close and agree well with measurements. However, under the light loading, only the transition model with low TI predicts the most accurate results. Above all, the friction components of propeller performance predicted by the transition model with different TI have obvious difference.Keywords: transition flow, model propellers, hydrodynamic performance, numerical simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 26016655 Strategic Model of Implementing E-Learning Using Funnel Model
Authors: Mohamed Jama Madar, Oso Wilis
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E-learning is the application of information technology in the teaching and learning process. This paper presents the Funnel model as a solution for the problems of implementation of e-learning in tertiary education institutions. While existing models such as TAM, theory-based e-learning and pedagogical model have been used over time, they have generally been found to be inadequate because of their tendencies to treat materials development, instructional design, technology, delivery and governance as separate and isolated entities. Yet it is matching components that bring framework of e-learning strategic implementation. The Funnel model enhances all these into one and applies synchronously and asynchronously to e-learning implementation where the only difference is modalities. Such a model for e-learning implementation has been lacking. The proposed Funnel model avoids ad-ad-hoc approach which has made other systems unused or inefficient, and compromised educational quality. Therefore, the proposed Funnel model should help tertiary education institutions adopt and develop effective and efficient e-learning system which meets users’ requirements.Keywords: e-learning, pedagogical, technology, strategy
Procedia PDF Downloads 44716654 The Grand Unified Theory of Everything as a Generalization to the Standard Model Called as the General Standard Model
Authors: Amir Deljoo
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The endeavor to comprehend the existence have been the center of thought for human in form of different disciplines and now basically in physics as the theory of everything. Here, after a brief review of the basic frameworks of thought, and a history of thought since ancient up to present, a logical methodology is presented based on a core axiom after which a function, a proto-field and then a coordinates are explained. Afterwards a generalization to Standard Model is proposed as General Standard Model which is believed to be the base of the Unified Theory of Everything.Keywords: general relativity, grand unified theory, quantum mechanics, standard model, theory of everything
Procedia PDF Downloads 9216653 ISIS Women Recruitment in Spain and De-Radicalization Programs in Prisons
Authors: Inmaculada Yuste Martinez
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Since July 5, 2014, Abubaker al Bagdadi, leader of the Islamic State since 2010 climbed the pulpit of the Great Mosque of Al Nuri of Mosul and proclaimed the Caliphate, the number of fighters who have travelled to Syria to join the Caliphate has increased as never before. Although it is true that the phenomenon of foreign fighters is not a new phenomenon, as it occurred after the Spanish Civil War, Republicans from Ireland and the conflict of the Balkans among others, it is highly relevant the fact that in this case, it has reached figures unknown in Europe until now. The approval of the resolution 2178 (2014) of the Security Council, foreign terrorist fighters placed the subject a priority position on the International agenda. The available data allow us to affirm that women have increasingly assumed operative functions in jihadist terrorism and in the activities linked to it in the development of attacks in the European Union, including minors and young adults. In the case of Spain, one in four of the detainees in 2016 were women, a significant increase compared to 2015. This contrasts with the fact that until 2014 no woman had been prosecuted in Spain for terrorist activities of a jihadist nature. It is fundamental when we talk about the prevention of radicalization and counterterrorism that we do not underestimate the potential threat to the security of countries like Spain that women from the West can assume to the global jihadist movement. This work aims to deepen the radicalization processes of these women and their profiles influencing the female inmate population. It also wants to focus on the importance of creating de-radicalization programs for these inmates since women are a crucial element in radicalization processes. A special focus it is made on young radicalized female inmate population as this target group is the most recoverable and on which it would result more fruitful to intervene. De-radicalization programs must also be designed to fit their profiles and circumstances; a sensitive environment will be prisons and juvenile centers, areas that until now had been unrelated to this problem and which are already hosting the first convicted in judicial offices in Spanish territory. A qualitative research and an empirical and analytical method has been implemented in this work, focused on the cases that took place in Spain of young women and the imaginary that the Islamic State uses for the processes of radicalization for this target group and how it does not fit with their real role in the Jihad, as opposed to other movements in which women do have a real and active role in the armed conflict as YPJ do it as a part of the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party of Syria.Keywords: caliphate, de-radicalization, foreign fighter, gender perspective, ISIS, jihadism, recruitment
Procedia PDF Downloads 16616652 Definition of a Computing Independent Model and Rules for Transformation Focused on the Model-View-Controller Architecture
Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira
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This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML
Procedia PDF Downloads 39016651 1D Velocity Model for the Gobi-Altai Region from Local Earthquakes
Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut
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We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest
Procedia PDF Downloads 16016650 An Elbow Biomechanical Model and Its Coefficients Adjustment
Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao
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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search
Procedia PDF Downloads 53916649 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model
Authors: Yuzhi Cai
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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model
Procedia PDF Downloads 35916648 Surveying Energy Dissipation in Stepped Spillway Using Finite Element Modeling
Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah
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Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 36516647 Monitoring Three-Dimensional Models of Tree and Forest by Using Digital Close-Range Photogrammetry
Authors: S. Y. Cicekli
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In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model
Procedia PDF Downloads 38116646 A Mathematical-Based Formulation of EEG Fluctuations
Authors: Razi Khalafi
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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal
Procedia PDF Downloads 426