Search results for: project performance forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 16997

Search results for: project performance forecasting

16847 A Comparative Asessment of Some Algorithms for Modeling and Forecasting Horizontal Displacement of Ialy Dam, Vietnam

Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

Abstract:

In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

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16846 Questionnaire for the Evaluation of Entrepreneurship Project Psychopedagogical Practices: Construction Proceedings and Validation

Authors: Cristina Costa-Lobo, Sandra Fernandes, Miguel Magalhães, José Dinis-Carvalho, Alfredo Regueiro, Ana Carvalho

Abstract:

This paper is a report on the findings of the construction and the validation of a questionnaire monetized in a portuguese higher education context with undergraduate students. The Questionnaire for the Evaluation of Entrepreneurship Project Psychopedagogical Practices consists of six scales: Critical appraisal of the project, Developed Learning and Skills, Teamwork, Teacher and Tutor Roles, Evaluation of Student Performance, and Project Effectiveness as a Teaching-Learning Methodology. The proceedings of its construction are analyzed, and the validity and internal consistency analysis are described. Findings indicate good indicators of validity, good fidelity and an interpretable factorial structure.

Keywords: entrepreneurship project, higher education, psychopedagogical practices, teacher and tutor roles

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16845 Create a Dynamic Model in Project Control and Management

Authors: Hamed Saremi, Shahla Saremi

Abstract:

In this study, control and management of construction projects is evaluated through developing a dynamic model in which some means are used in order to evaluating planning assumptions and reviewing the effectiveness of some project control policies based on previous researches about time, cost, project schedule pressure management, source management, project control, adding elements and sub-systems from cost management such as estimating consumption budget from budget due to costs, budget shortage effects and etc. using sensitivity analysis, researcher has evaluated introduced model that during model simulation by VENSIM software and assuming optimistic times and adding information about doing job and changes rate and project is forecasted with 373 days (2 days sooner than forecasted) and final profit $ 1,960,670 (23% amount of contract) assuming 15% inflation rate in year and costs rate accordance with planned amounts and other input information and final profit.

Keywords: dynamic planning, cost, time, performance, project management

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16844 Investor Sentiment and Commodity Trading Advisor Fund Performance

Authors: Tian Lan

Abstract:

Arbitrageurs participate in a variety of techniques in response to the existence of fluctuating sentiment, resulting in sparse sentiment exposures. This paper found that Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds in the top decile rated by sentiment beta outperformed those in the bottom decile by 0.33% per month on a risk-adjusted basis, with the difference being larger among skilled managers. This paper also discovered that around ten percent of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds could accurately predict market sentiment, which has a positive correlation with fund sentiment beta and acts as a determinant in fund performance. Instead of betting against mispricing, this research demonstrates that a competent manager can achieve remarkable returns by forecasting and reacting to shifts in investor sentiment.

Keywords: investment sentiment, CTA fund, market timing, fund performance

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16843 Project and Module Based Teaching and Learning

Authors: Jingyu Hou

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new teaching and learning approach-project and Module Based Teaching and Learning (PMBTL). The PMBTL approach incorporates the merits of project/problem based and module based learning methods, and overcomes the limitations of these methods. The correlation between teaching, learning, practice, and assessment is emphasized in this approach, and new methods have been proposed accordingly. The distinct features of these new methods differentiate the PMBTL approach from conventional teaching approaches. Evaluation of this approach on practical teaching and learning activities demonstrates the effectiveness and stability of the approach in improving the performance and quality of teaching and learning. The approach proposed in this paper is also intuitive to the design of other teaching units.

Keywords: computer science education, project and module based, software engineering, module based teaching and learning

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16842 Current Status and a Forecasting Model of Community Household Waste Generation: A Case Study on Ward 24 (Nirala), Khulna, Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Nazmul Haque, Mahinur Rahman

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The objective of the research is to determine the quantity of household waste generated and forecast the future condition of Ward No 24 (Nirala). For performing that, three core issues are focused: (i) the capacity and service area of the dumping stations; (ii) the present waste generation amount per capita per day; (iii) the responsibility of the local authority in the household waste collection. This research relied on field survey-based data collection from all stakeholders and GIS-based secondary analysis of waste collection points and their coverage. However, these studies are mostly based on the inherent forecasting approaches, cannot predict the amount of waste correctly. The findings of this study suggest that Nirala is a formal residential area introducing a better approach to the waste collection - self-controlled and collection system. Here, a forecasting model proposed for waste generation as Y = -2250387 + 1146.1 * X, where X = year.

Keywords: eco-friendly environment, household waste, linear regression, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
16841 A Risk Management Framework for Selling a Mega Power Plant Project in a New Market

Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

Abstract:

The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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16840 A Probability Analysis of Construction Project Schedule Using Risk Management Tool

Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

Abstract:

Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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16839 Bridging Minds, Building Success Beyond Metrics: Uncovering Human Influence on Project Performance: Case Study of University of Salford

Authors: David Oyewumi Oyekunle, David Preston, Florence Ibeh

Abstract:

The paper provides an overview of the impacts of the human dimension in project management and team management on projects, which is increasingly affecting the performance of organizations. Recognizing its crucial significance, the research focuses on analyzing the psychological and interpersonal dynamics within project teams. This research is highly significant in the dynamic field of project management, as it addresses important gaps and offers vital insights that align with the constantly changing demands of the profession. A case study was conducted at the University of Salford to examine how human activity affects project management and performance. The study employed a mixed methodology to gain a deeper understanding of the real-world experiences of the subjects and project teams. Data analysis procedures to address the research objectives included the deductive approach, which involves testing a clear hypothesis or theory, as well as descriptive analysis and visualization. The survey comprised a sample size of 40 participants out of 110 project management professionals, including staff and final students in the Salford Business School, using a purposeful sampling method. To mitigate bias, the study ensured diversity in the sample by including both staff and final students. A smaller sample size allowed for more in-depth analysis and a focused exploration of the research objective. Conflicts, for example, are intricate occurrences shaped by a multitude of psychological stimuli and social interactions and may have either a deterrent perspective or a positive perspective on project performance and project management productivity. The study identified conflict elements, including culture, environment, personality, attitude, individual project knowledge, team relationships, leadership, and team dynamics among team members, as crucial human activities to minimize conflict. The findings are highly significant in the dynamic field of project management, as they address important gaps and offer vital insights that align with the constantly changing demands of the profession. It provided project professionals with valuable insights that can help them create a collaborative and high-performing project environment. Uncovering human influence on project performance, effective communication, optimal team synergy, and a keen understanding of project scope are necessary for the management of projects to attain exceptional performance and efficiency. For the research to achieve the aims of this study, it was acknowledged that the productive dynamics of teams and strong group cohesiveness are crucial for effectively managing conflicts in a beneficial and forward-thinking manner. Addressing the identified human influence will contribute to a more sustainable project management approach and offer opportunities for exploration and potential contributions to both academia and practical project management.

Keywords: human dimension, project management, team dynamics, conflict resolution

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16838 Role of Macro and Technical Indicators in Equity Risk Premium Prediction: A Principal Component Analysis Approach

Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

Abstract:

Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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16837 Mechanical Properties of Fibre Reinforced High Performance Concrete

Authors: Laura Dembovska, Diana Bajare, Vitalijs Lusis, Genadijs Sahmenko, Aleksandrs Korjakins

Abstract:

This study focused on the mechanical properties of the fibre reinforced High Performance Concrete. The most important benefits of addition of fibres to the concrete mix are the hindrance of the development of microcracks, the delay of the propagation of microcracks to macroscopic cracks and the better ductility after microcracks have been occurred. This work presents an extensive comparative experimental study on six different types of fibres (alkali resistant glass, polyvinyl alcohol fibres, polypropylene fibres and carbon fibres) with the same binding High Performance Concrete matrix. The purpose was to assess the influence of the type of fibre on the mechanical properties of Fibre Reinforced High Performance Concrete. Therefore, in this study three main objectives have been chosen: 1) analyze the structure of the bulk cementitious matrix, 2) determine the influence of fibres and distribution in the matrix on the mechanical properties of fibre reinforced High Performance Concrete and 3) characterize the microstructure of the fibre-matrix interface. Acknowledgement: This study was partially funded by European Regional Development Fund project Nr.1.1.1.1/16/A/007 “A New Concept for Sustainable and Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings” and COST Action TU1404 Conference grants project.

Keywords: high performance concrete, fibres, mechanical properties, microstructure

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16836 Feasibility Study on Developing and Enhancing of Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems in Thailand

Authors: Sitarrine Thongpussawal, Dasarath Jayasuriya, Thanaroj Woraratprasert, Sakawtree Prajamwong

Abstract:

Thailand grapples with recurrent floods causing substantial repercussions on its economy, society, and environment. In 2021, the economic toll of these floods amounted to an estimated 53,282 million baht, primarily impacting the agricultural sector. The existing flood monitoring system in Thailand suffers from inaccuracies and insufficient information, resulting in delayed warnings and ineffective communication to the public. The Office of the National Water Resources (OWNR) is tasked with developing and integrating data and information systems for efficient water resources management, yet faces challenges in monitoring accuracy, forecasting, and timely warnings. This study endeavors to evaluate the viability of enhancing Thailand's Flood Forecasting and Warning (FFW) systems. Additionally, it aims to formulate a comprehensive work package grounded in international best practices to enhance the country's FFW systems. Employing qualitative research methodologies, the study conducted in-depth interviews and focus groups with pertinent agencies. Data analysis involved techniques like note-taking and document analysis. The study substantiates the feasibility of developing and enhancing FFW systems in Thailand. Implementation of international best practices can augment the precision of flood forecasting and warning systems, empowering local agencies and residents in high-risk areas to prepare proactively, thereby minimizing the adverse impact of floods on lives and property. This research underscores that Thailand can feasibly advance its FFW systems by adopting international best practices, enhancing accuracy, and improving preparedness. Consequently, the study enriches the theoretical understanding of flood forecasting and warning systems and furnishes valuable recommendations for their enhancement in Thailand.

Keywords: flooding, forecasting, warning, monitoring, communication, Thailand

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16835 Simulating the Interaction of Strategy Development and Project Delivery

Authors: Nipun Agarwal, David Paul, Fareed Un Din

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Every organization develops a strategy that needs to be implemented and is undertaken through project delivery. In essence, project requirements should exactly replicate an organization’s strategy. In reality this does not happen, and behavioral factors deviate the project delivery from the strategic objectives. This occurs as project stakeholders can have competing objectives. Resultantly, requirements that are implemented through projects are less aligned to the strategy. This paper develops a game theoretic model to simulate why such deviations occur. That explains the difference between strategy development and implementation.

Keywords: strategy, simulation, project management, game theory

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16834 Machine Learning Approach to Project Control Threshold Reliability Evaluation

Authors: Y. Kim, H. Lee, M. Park, B. Lee

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Planning is understood as the determination of what has to be performed, how, in which sequence, when, what resources are needed, and their cost within the organization before execution. In most construction project, it is evident that the inherent nature of planning is dynamic, and initial planning is subject to be changed due to various uncertain conditions of construction project. Planners take a continuous revision process during the course of a project and until the very end of project. However, current practice lacks reliable, systematic tool for setting variance thresholds to determine when and what corrective actions to be taken. Rather it is heavily dependent on the level of experience and knowledge of the planner. Thus, this paper introduces a machine learning approach to evaluate project control threshold reliability incorporating project-specific data and presents a method to automate the process. The results have shown that the model improves the efficiency and accuracy of the monitoring process as an early warning.

Keywords: machine learning, project control, project progress monitoring, schedule

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16833 Construction Project Planning Using Fuzzy Critical Path Approach

Authors: Omar M. Aldenali

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Planning is one of the most important phases of the management science and network planning, which represents the project activities relationship. Critical path is one of the project management techniques used to plan and control the execution of a project activities. The objective of this paper is to implement a fuzzy logic approach to arrange network planning on construction projects. This method is used to finding out critical path in the fuzzy construction project network. The trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to represent the activity construction project times. A numerical example that represents a house construction project is introduced. The critical path method is implemented on the fuzzy construction network activities, and the results showed that this method significantly affects the completion time of the construction projects.

Keywords: construction project, critical path, fuzzy network project, planning

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16832 Wind Power Forecasting Using Echo State Networks Optimized by Big Bang-Big Crunch Algorithm

Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

Abstract:

In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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16831 Dilemmas of HRM in a Project-Oriented Organisation

Authors: Katarzyna Piwowar-Sulej

Abstract:

The functioning of a project-oriented organisation creates new and different, from the traditional ones, conditions for human resources management. In the analysed case HRM is primarily characterized by a double-track nature – on the one hand within the framework of permanent structures (departments) and, on the other, within the area of particular projects. The purpose of the article is to present the dilemmas associated with the development of selected HRM areas in project-oriented organisations. Theoretical discussion was supplemented by the results of empirical research.

Keywords: human resources management, tracks of HRM, project, project-oriented organisation

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16830 The Role of Business Survey Measures in Forecasting Croatian Industrial Production

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

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While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: balance, business survey, confidence indicators, industrial production, forecasting

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16829 Redefining Solar Generation Estimation: A Comprehensive Analysis of Real Utility Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Data from Various Projects in New York

Authors: Haowei Lu, Anaya Aaron

Abstract:

Understanding historical solar generation and forecasting future solar generation from interconnected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is crucial for utility planning and interconnection studies. The existing methodology, which relies on solar radiation, weather data, and common inverter models, is becoming less accurate. Rapid advancements in DER technologies have resulted in more diverse project sites, deviating from common patterns due to various factors such as DC/AC ratio, solar panel performance, tilt angle, and the presence of DC-coupled battery energy storage systems. In this paper, the authors review 10,000 DER projects within the system and analyze the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data for various types to demonstrate the impact of different parameters. An updated methodology is proposed for redefining historical and future solar generation in distribution feeders.

Keywords: photovoltaic system, solar energy, fluctuations, energy storage, uncertainty

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16828 Analysis of Particle Reinforced Metal Matrix Composite Crankshaft

Authors: R. S. Vikaash, S. Vinodh, T. S. Sai Prashanth

Abstract:

Six sigma is a defect reduction strategy enabling modern organizations to achieve business prosperity. The practitioners are in need to select best six sigma project among the available alternatives to achieve customer satisfaction. In this circumstance, this article presents a study in which six sigma project selection is formulated as Multi-Criteria Decision-Making(MCDM) problem and the best project has been found using AHP. Five main governing criteria and 14 sub criteria are being formulated. The decision maker’s inputs were gathered and computations were performed. The project with the high values from the set of projects is selected as the best project. Based on calculations, Project “P1”is found to be the best and further deployment actions have been undertaken in the organization.

Keywords: six Sigma, project selection, MCDM, analytic hierarchy process, business prosperity

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16827 A Strategic Partner Evaluation Model for the Project Based Enterprises

Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung H. Han

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The optimal partner selection is one of the most important factors to pursue the project’s success. However, in practice, there is a gaps in perception of success depending on the role of the enterprises for the projects. This frequently makes a relations between the partner evaluation results and the project’s final performances, insufficiently. To meet this challenges, this study proposes a strategic partner evaluation model considering the perception gaps between enterprises. A total 3 times of survey was performed; factor selection, perception gap analysis, and case application. After then total 8 factors are extracted from independent sample t-test and Borich model to set-up the evaluation model. Finally, through the case applications, only 16 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 22 “Good” grade from existing model. On the contrary, 12 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 19 “Bad” grade from existing model. Consequently, the perception gaps based evaluation model is expected to improve the decision making quality and also enhance the probability of project’s success.

Keywords: partner evaluation model, project based enterprise, decision making, perception gap, project performance

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16826 Project Time Prediction Model: A Case Study of Construction Projects in Sindh, Pakistan

Authors: Tauha Hussain Ali, Shabir Hussain Khahro, Nafees Ahmed Memon

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Accurate prediction of project time for planning and bid preparation stage should contain realistic dates. Constructors use their experience to estimate the project duration for the new projects, which is based on intuitions. It has been a constant concern to both researchers and constructors to analyze the accurate prediction of project duration for bid preparation stage. In Pakistan, such study for time cost relationship has been lacked to predict duration performance for the construction projects. This study is an attempt to explore the time cost relationship that would conclude with a mathematical model to predict the time for the drainage rehabilitation projects in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. The data has been collected from National Engineering Services (NESPAK), Pakistan and regression analysis has been carried out for the analysis of results. Significant relationship has been found between time and cost of the construction projects in Sindh and the generated mathematical model can be used by the constructors to predict the project duration for the upcoming projects of same nature. This study also provides the professionals with a requisite knowledge to make decisions regarding project duration, which is significantly important to win the projects at the bid stage.

Keywords: BTC Model, project time, relationship of time cost, regression

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16825 Forecasting Optimal Production Program Using Profitability Optimization by Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network

Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin

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In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network. The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters. Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output. This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc. From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.

Keywords: project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, neural networks

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16824 An Introduction to Critical Chain Project Management Methodology

Authors: Ranjini Ramanath, Nanjunda P. Swamy

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Construction has existed in our lives since time immemorial. However, unlike any other industry, construction projects have their own unique challenges – project type, purpose and end use of the project, geographical conditions, logistic arrangements, largely unorganized manpower and requirement of diverse skill sets, etc. These unique characteristics bring in their own level of risk and uncertainties to the project, which cause the project to deviate from its planned objectives of time, cost, quality, etc. over the many years, there have been significant developments in the way construction projects are conceptualized, planned, and managed. With the rapid increase in the population, increased rate of urbanization, there is a growing demand for infrastructure development, and it is required that the projects are delivered timely, and efficiently. In an age where ‘Time is Money,' implementation of new techniques of project management is required in leading to successful projects. This paper proposes a different approach to project management, which if applied in construction projects, can help in the accomplishment of the project objectives in a faster manner.

Keywords: critical chain project management methodology, critical chain, project management, construction management

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16823 AI-Driven Forecasting Models for Anticipating Oil Market Trends and Demand

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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16822 Fiber Based Pushover Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Frame

Authors: Shewangizaw Tesfaye Wolde

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The current engineering community has developed a method called performance based seismic design in which we design structures based on predefined performance levels set by the parties. Since we design our structures economically for the maximum actions expected in the life of structures they go beyond their elastic limit, in need of nonlinear analysis. In this paper conventional pushover analysis (nonlinear static analysis) is used for the performance assessment of the case study Reinforced Concrete (RC) Frame building located in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia where proposed peak ground acceleration value by RADIUS 1999 project and others is more than twice as of EBCS-8:1995 (RADIUS 1999 project) by taking critical planar frame. Fiber beam-column model is used to control material nonlinearity with tension stiffening effect. The reliability of the fiber model and validation of software outputs are checked under verification chapter. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a way for structural performance assessment of existing reinforced concrete frame buildings as well as design check.

Keywords: seismic, performance, fiber model, tension stiffening, reinforced concrete

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16821 Role of Leadership in Project Management

Authors: Miriam Filipová, Peter Balco

Abstract:

At present, in Slovak and Czech Republic, the education within the field of Project Management is carried out either within the higher education or via commercial entities, whilst the most used contents are the commonly used methodologies of project management. Obtaining a diploma after completing a university degree or a training certificate does not automatically mean the success of the project or the success of the project manager. The importance of leadership and soft skills in project management is either not included at all within the training of project managers, or it is only partially reflected. From the methodology perspective, the most important things during the preparation and management of the projects are preparation of the project plan, resource planning, and project realization in accordance with the chosen methodology. However, the key element on which the success of the project depends on are the people – whether they are team members on the supplier's side, the stakeholders, or the end users. This research focuses on the real needs of working project managers, on the development of their strengths, expertise, skills, and knowledge regarding leadership and soft skills. At the same time, it looks into identifying the elements that they consider to be key to the success of the projects they have managed and successfully delivered. The result of this research is the input for creating recommendations for a comprehensive education of project managers in the field of leadership and soft skills.

Keywords: project management, leadership, soft skills, education, academic degree, certificates, skills, talents, knowledge

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16820 Analyzing the Effectiveness of Communication Practices and Processes within Project-Based Firms

Authors: Paul Saah, Charles Mbohwa, Nelson Sizwe Madonsela

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The capacity to deliver projects on schedule, within budget, and to the pleasure of the client depends on effective communication, which is the lifeblood of project-based businesses. In order to pinpoint areas for development and shed light on the crucial role that communication plays in project success, the aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of communication practises and processes inside project-based organisations. In order to analyse concepts and get a greater grasp of their theoretical basis, this study's methodology combines a careful review of the relevant literature with a conceptual analysis of the subject. Data from a varied sample of project-based businesses spanning all industries and sizes were collected via document analysis. The relationship between communication practises, and processes were investigated in connection to key performance measures such as project outcomes, client satisfaction, and team dynamics. According to the study's findings, project-based businesses that adopt effective communication practises, and procedures experience a reduction in unfavourable experiences, stronger integration, and coordination, clarity of purpose, and practises that can hasten problem resolution. However, failing to adopt effective communication practises and procedures in project-based company result in counter issues, including project derailment from the schedule, failure to meet goals, inefficient use of existing resources, and failure to meet organisational goals. Therefore, optimising their communication practises, and procedures are crucial for sustainable growth and competitive advantage as project-based enterprises continue to play a crucial part in today's dynamic business scene.

Keywords: effective communication, project-based firms, communication practices, project success, communication strategies

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16819 Empirical Study on Causes of Project Delays

Authors: Khan Farhan Rafat, Riaz Ahmed

Abstract:

Renowned offshore organizations are drifting towards collaborative exertion to win and implement international projects for business gains. However, devoid of financial constraints, with the availability of skilled professionals, and despite improved project management practices through state-of-the-art tools and techniques, project delays have become a norm these days. This situation calls for exploring the factor(s) affecting the bonding between project management performance and project success. In the context of the well-known 3M’s of project management (that is, manpower, machinery, and materials), machinery and materials are dependent upon manpower. Because the body of knowledge inveterate on the influence of national culture on men, hence, the realization of the impact on the link between project management performance and project success need to be investigated in detail to arrive at the possible cause(s) of project delays. This research initiative was, therefore, undertaken to fill the research gap. The unit of analysis for the proposed research excretion was the individuals who had worked on skyscraper construction projects. In reverent studies, project management is best described using construction examples. It is due to this reason that the project oriented city of Dubai was chosen to reconnoiter on causes of project delays. A structured questionnaire survey was disseminated online with the courtesy of the Project Management Institute local chapter to carry out the cross-sectional study. The Construction Industry Institute, Austin, of the United States of America along with 23 high-rise builders in Dubai were also contacted by email requesting for their contribution to the study and providing them with the online link to the survey questionnaire. The reliability of the instrument was warranted using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.70. The appropriateness of sampling adequacy and homogeneity in variance was ensured by keeping Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) and Bartlett’s test of sphericity in the range ≥ 0.60 and < 0.05, respectively. Factor analysis was used to verify construct validity. During exploratory factor analysis, all items were loaded using a threshold of 0.4. Four hundred and seventeen respondents, including members from top management, project managers, and project staff, contributed to the study. The link between project management performance and project success was significant at 0.01 level (2-tailed), and 0.05 level (2-tailed) for Pearson’s correlation. Before initiating the moderator analysis test for linearity, multicollinearity, outliers, leverage points and influential cases, test for homoscedasticity and normality were carried out which are prerequisites for conducting moderator review. The moderator analysis, using a macro named PROCESS, was performed to verify the hypothesis that national culture has an influence on the said link. The empirical findings, when compared with Hofstede's results, showed high power distance as the cause of construction project delays in Dubai. The research outcome calls for the project sponsors and top management to reshape their project management strategy and allow for low power distance between management and project personnel for timely completion of projects.

Keywords: causes of construction project delays, construction industry, construction management, power distance

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16818 Models, Resources and Activities of Project Scheduling Problems

Authors: Jorge A. Ruiz-Vanoye, Ocotlán Díaz-Parra, Alejandro Fuentes-Penna, José J. Hernández-Flores, Edith Olaco Garcia

Abstract:

The Project Scheduling Problem (PSP) is a generic name given to a whole class of problems in which the best form, time, resources and costs for project scheduling are necessary. The PSP is an application area related to the project management. This paper aims at being a guide to understand PSP by presenting a survey of the general parameters of PSP: the Resources (those elements that realize the activities of a project), and the Activities (set of operations or own tasks of a person or organization); the mathematical models of the main variants of PSP and the algorithms used to solve the variants of the PSP. The project scheduling is an important task in project management. This paper contains mathematical models, resources, activities, and algorithms of project scheduling problems. The project scheduling problem has attracted researchers of the automotive industry, steel manufacturer, medical research, pharmaceutical research, telecommunication, industry, aviation industry, development of the software, manufacturing management, innovation and technology management, construction industry, government project management, financial services, machine scheduling, transportation management, and others. The project managers need to finish a project with the minimum cost and the maximum quality.

Keywords: PSP, Combinatorial Optimization Problems, Project Management; Manufacturing Management, Technology Management.

Procedia PDF Downloads 398