Search results for: utilization rate
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9520

Search results for: utilization rate

7810 Malaysian Challenges and Experiences with National Higher Education Fund Corporation’s Educational Loan Default

Authors: Anjali Dewi Krishnan

Abstract:

This paper attempts to explore the factors causing student loan defaults among NHEFC borrower besides measuring the enforcement actions that have been took by NHEFC to improve repayment rate. It starts by reviewing the causes of student loan default from the perspective of the loan borrowers besides finding out about the effectiveness of approaches taken by NHEFC (National Higher Education Fund Corporation) until now in order to increase the repayment rate and recover student loan default. The results gathered from the research used to investigate or identify the relationship between job statuses, gender, and ethnicity of the borrowers with repayment status, enforcement from the NHEFC side in the sense of student loan repayment; and respondent's opinion about enforcement in encouraging repayment of student loan and recover loan default. A combination of unemployment, financial constraint, inefficient repayment method and some other reasons of student loan defaults were discovered through this research. It finishes by presenting the reality whereby a student loan default is a result of inability to pay back and not about willingness to pay back.

Keywords: loan default, loan recovery, loan repayment, national higher education fund corporation

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
7809 Technology Changing Senior Care

Authors: John Kosmeh

Abstract:

Introduction – For years, senior health care and skilled nursing facilities have been plagued with the dilemma of not having the necessary tools and equipment to adequately care for senior residents in their communities. This has led to high transport rates to emergency departments and high 30-day readmission rates, costing billions of unnecessary dollars each year, as well as quality assurance issues. Our Senior care telemedicine program is designed to solve this issue. Methods – We conducted a 1-year pilot program using our technology coupled with our 24/7 telemedicine program with skilled nursing facilities in different parts of the United States. We then compared transports rates and 30-day readmission rates to previous years before the use of our program, as well as transport rates of other communities of similar size not using our program. This data was able to give us a clear and concise look at the success rate of reducing unnecessary transport and readmissions as well as cost savings. Results – A 94% reduction nationally of unnecessary out-of-facility transports, and to date, complete elimination of 30-day readmissions. Our virtual platform allowed us to instruct facility staff on the utilization of our tools and system as well as deliver treatment by our ER-trained providers. Delay waiting for PCP callbacks was eliminated. We were able to obtain lung, heart, and abdominal ultrasound imaging, 12 lead EKG, blood labs, auscultate lung and heart sounds, and collect other diagnostic tests at the bedside within minutes, providing immediate care and allowing us to treat residents within the SNF. Are virtual capabilities allowed for loved ones, family members, and others who had medical power of attorney to virtually connect with us at the time of visit, to speak directly with the medical provider, providing increased confidence in the decision to treat the resident in-house. The decline in transports and readmissions will greatly reduce governmental cost burdens, as well as fines imposed on SNF for high 30-day readmissions, reduce the cost of Medicare A readmissions, and significantly impact the number of patients visiting overcrowded ERs. Discussion – By utilizing our program, SNF can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary transports of residents, as well as create significant savings from loss of day rates, transportation costs, and high CMS fines. The cost saving is in the thousands monthly, but more importantly, these facilities can create a higher quality of life and medical care for residents by providing definitive care instantly with ER-trained personnel.

Keywords: senior care, long term care, telemedicine, technology, senior care communities

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
7808 Tribological Behavior of Pongamia Oil Based Biodiesel Blended Lubricant at Different Load

Authors: Yashvir Singh, Amneesh Singla, Swapnil Bhurat

Abstract:

Around the globe, there is demand for the development of bio-based lubricant which will be biodegradable, non toxic, and environmentally-friendly. This paper outlines the friction and wear characteristics of ponagamia biodiesel contaminated bio-lubricant by using pin-on-disc tribometer. To formulate the bio-lubricants, Ponagamia oil based biodiesel were blended in the ratios 5, 10, and 20% by volume with the base lubricant SAE 20 W 40. Tribological characteristics of these blends were carried out at 2.5 m/s sliding velocity and loads applied were 50, 100, 150 N. Experimental results showed that the lubrication regime that occurred during the test was boundary lubrication while the main wear mechanisms was the adhesive wear. During testing, the lowest wear was found with the addition of 5 and 10% Ponagamia oil based biodiesel, and above this contamination, the wear rate was increased considerably. The addition of 5 and 10% Ponagamia oil based biodiesel with the base lubricant acted as a very good lubricant additive which reduced the friction and wear rate during the test. It has been concluded that the PBO 5 and PBO 10 can act as an alternative lubricant to increase the mechanical efficiency at 2.5 m/s sliding velocity and contribute in reduction of dependence on the petroleum based products.

Keywords: friction, load, pongamia oil blend, sliding velocity, wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
7807 Incorporating Multiple Supervised Learning Algorithms for Effective Intrusion Detection

Authors: Umar Albalawi, Sang C. Suh, Jinoh Kim

Abstract:

As internet continues to expand its usage with an enormous number of applications, cyber-threats have significantly increased accordingly. Thus, accurate detection of malicious traffic in a timely manner is a critical concern in today’s Internet for security. One approach for intrusion detection is to use Machine Learning (ML) techniques. Several methods based on ML algorithms have been introduced over the past years, but they are largely limited in terms of detection accuracy and/or time and space complexity to run. In this work, we present a novel method for intrusion detection that incorporates a set of supervised learning algorithms. The proposed technique provides high accuracy and outperforms existing techniques that simply utilizes a single learning method. In addition, our technique relies on partial flow information (rather than full information) for detection, and thus, it is light-weight and desirable for online operations with the property of early identification. With the mid-Atlantic CCDC intrusion dataset publicly available, we show that our proposed technique yields a high degree of detection rate over 99% with a very low false alarm rate (0.4%).

Keywords: intrusion detection, supervised learning, traffic classification, computer networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 332
7806 Exergy Analyses of Wind Turbine

Authors: Muhammad Abid

Abstract:

Utilization of renewable energy resources for energy conservation, pollution prevention, resource efficiency and systems integration is very important for sustainable development. In this study, we perform energy and exergy analyses of a wind turbine, located on the roof of Mechanical Engineering Department, King Saud University, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The turbine is part of a hybrid photovoltaic (PV)-wind system with hydrogen storage. The power output from this turbine varies between 1.5 and 5.5 kW with a rated wind speed of 12 m/s and a cut-in wind speed of 2.4 m/s. We utilize a wide range of experimental data in the analysis and assessment. We determine energy and exergy efficiencies. The energy efficiency changes between 0% to 45% while the exergy efficiency varies between 0% and 31.3%. We also determined some of the exergoeconomic parameters that are the ratios of energy and exergy loss rates to the capital cost (R en and R ex), respectively. (R en) changes between 0.96% and 59.03% for different values of velocity while R ex has a maximum value of 53.62% for the highest wind speed.

Keywords: exergy, efficiency, performance evaluation, wind energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
7805 Investigation of Compliance of the Prevailing Import Murabah'a to Sharia

Authors: Aqeel Akhtar

Abstract:

One of prevailing modes of finance in emerging Islamic banking system is Murabah’a; a financial transaction in which cost and profit both must be recognized by buyer. Otherwise the transaction would become invalid. In this mainstream, import Murabah’a transaction is divergent in such a way that the cost is not recognized and identified due to execution of import transaction in foreign currency i.e. US Dollar and the next transaction of Murabaha’a with the client is executed in local currency. Since this transaction is executed in dual currency i.e. bank pays supplier in foreign currency and executes Murabah’a with its client in local currency and it is not allowed in according to Islamic Injunctions as mentioned in hadith narrated by Hazrat Ibn-e-Umar (May Allah be pleased with them) used to sell his camels with Dirhams and take dinars instead and vice versa. Upon revealing before the Prophet (SAW), he was advised that it must not be contingent in the agreement and the ready rate would be applied and possession of one of the consideration is compulsory. The solution in this regard is that the import Murabah’a transaction should be in single currency, however, other currency can be paid in payment at the time of payment in a very indispensable situation provided that ready rate would be applied. Moreover, some of other solutions have also been given in this regard.

Keywords: shariah compliance, import murabaha, islamic banking, product development

Procedia PDF Downloads 222
7804 Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in West African Business Cycles: Markov Switching Approach

Authors: Omolade Adeleke, Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti

Abstract:

This study empirically examined the monetary policy and economic growth in the classical cycles in 8 member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), using the Markov switching model for the Two-phase Regime, covering the period 1980Q1 to 2020Q4. Our estimates suggest that these countries demonstrate to have similar business cycles, and the economies stay more in an expansion regime than a recession regime. The result further shows that the union has an average duration period of 3.1 and 15.9 quarters for contraction and expansion periods, respectively. The business cycle duration, on average, suggests 19 quarters, varying from country to country. Therefore, the formulation of policies that can enhance aggregate demand by member countries in the union is an antidote for recession and is necessary to drive the economy into equilibrium. Also, a low-interest rate and reduced inflation rate would ginger long-run economic growth.

Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, economic growth, Markov switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
7803 Effect of Cryogenic Pre-stretching on the Room Temperature Tensile Behavior of AZ61 Magnesium Alloy and Dominant Grain Growth Mechanisms During Subsequent Annealing

Authors: Umer Masood Chaudry, Hafiz Muhammad Rehan Tariq, Chung-soo Kim, Tea-sung Jun

Abstract:

This study explored the influence of pre-stretching temperature on the microstructural characteristics and deformation behavior of AZ61 magnesium alloy and its implications on grain growth during subsequent annealing. AZ61 alloy was stretched to 5% plastic strain along rolling (RD) and transverse direction (TD) at room (RT) and cryogenic temperature (-150 oC, CT) followed by annealing at 320 oC for 1 h to investigate the twinning and dislocation evolution and its consequent effect on the flow stress, plastic strain and strain hardening rate. Compared to RT-stretched samples, significant improvement in yield stress, strain hardening rate and moderate reduction in elongation to failure were witnessed for CT-stretched samples along RD and TD. The subsequent EBSD analysis revealed the increased fraction of fine {10-12} twins and nucleation of multiple {10-12} twin variants caused by higher local stress concentration at the grain boundaries in CT-stretched samples as manifested by the kernel average misorientation. This higher twin fraction and twin-twin interaction imposed the strengthening by restricting the mean free path of dislocations, leading to higher flow stress and strain hardening rate. During annealing of the RT/CT-stretched samples, the residual strain energy and twin boundaries were decreased due to static recovery, leading to a coarse-grained twin-free microstructure. Strain induced boundary migration (SBIM) was found to be the predominant mechanism governing the grain growth during annealing via movement of high angle grain boundaries.

Keywords: magnesium, twinning, twinning variant selection, EBSD, cryogenic deformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
7802 Menopause Hormone Therapy: An insight into knowledge and attitudes of Obstetricians and Gynecologists in Singapore

Authors: Tan Hui Ying Renee, Stella Rizalina Sasha, Farah Safdar Husain

Abstract:

Introduction: Menopause Hormone Therapy (MHT) is an effective drug indicated for the treatment of menopausal symptoms and as replacement therapy in women who undergo premature menopause. In 2020, less than 8.8% of perimenopausal Singaporean women are on hormonal therapy, as compared to the Western population, where up to 50% may be on MHT. Factors associated with MHT utilization have been studied from patient characteristics, but the impact of locally prescribing physicians resulting in low MHT utilization has yet to be evaluated. The aim of the study is to determine the level of knowledge physicians in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology specialty have and their attitudes toward MHT. We believe that knowledge of MHT is lacking and that negative attitudes towards MHT may influence its use and undermine the benefits MHT may have for women. This paper is a part of a larger study on Singaporean physicians’ knowledge and attitudes towards MHT. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study intended to assess the knowledge and attitudes of physicians toward Menopausal Hormone Therapy. An anonymous questionnaire was disseminated via institutional internal circulations to optimize reach to physicians who may prescribe MHT, particularly in the fields of Gynaecology, Family Medicine and Endocrinology. Responses were completed voluntarily. Physicians had the option for each question to declare that they were ‘unsure’ or that the question was ‘beyond their expertise’. 21 knowledge questions tested factual recall on indications, contraindications, and risks of MHT. The remaining 6 questions were clinical scenarios crafted with the intention of testing specific principles related to the use of MHT. These questions received face validation from experts in the field. 198 responses were collected, 79 of which were from physicians in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology specialty. The data will be statistically analyzed to investigate areas that can be improved to increase the overall benefits of MHT for the Singaporean population. Results: Preliminary results show that the prevailing factors that limit Singaporean gynecologists and obstetricians from prescribing MHT are a lack of knowledge of MHT and a lack of confidence in prescribing MHT. Risks and indications of MHT were not well known by many physicians, with the majority of the questions having more than 25% incorrect and ‘unsure’ as their reply. The clinical scenario questions revealed significant shortcomings in knowledge on how to navigate real-life challenges in MHT use, with 2 of 6 questions with more than 50% incorrect or ‘beyond their expertise’ as their reply. The portion of the questionnaire that investigated the attitudes of physicians showed that though a large majority believed MHT to be an effective drug, only 40.5% were confident in prescribing it. Conclusion: Physicians in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology specialty lack knowledge and confidence in MHT. Therefore, it is imperative to formulate solutions on both the individual and institutional levels to fill these gaps and ensure that MHT is used appropriately and prescribed to the patients who need it.

Keywords: menopause, menopause hormone therapy, physician factors, obstetrics and gynecology, menopausal symptoms, Singapore

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7801 Assesment of Financial Performance: An Empirical Study of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Companies in India

Authors: Palash Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

Background and significance of the study: Crude oil and natural gas is of crucial importance due to its increasing demand in India. The demand has been increased because of change of lifestyle overtime. Since India has poor utilization of oil production capacity, constantly the import of it has been increased progressively day by day. This ultimately hit the foreign exchange reserves of India, however it negatively affect the Indian economy as well. The financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies in India has been trimmed down year after year because of underutilization of production capacity, enhancement of demand, change in life style, and change in import bill and outflows of foreign currencies. In this background, the current study seeks to measure the financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies of India in the post liberalization period. Keeping in view of this, this study assesses the financial performance in terms of liquidity management, solvency, efficiency, financial stability, and profitability of the companies under study. Methodology: This research work is encircled on yearly ratio data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database for the periods between 1993-94 and 2012-13 with 20 observations using liquidity, solvency and efficiency indicators, profitability indicators and financial stability indicators of all the major crude oil and natural gas companies in India. In the course of analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation statistics, and linear regression test have been utilized. Major findings: Descriptive statistics indicate that liquidity position is satisfactory in case of three crude oil and natural gas companies (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited, Oil India Limited and Selan exploration and transportation Limited) out of selected companies under study but solvency position is satisfactory only for one company (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited). However, efficiency analysis points out that Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited performs effectively the management of inventory, receivables, and payables, but the overall liquidity management is not well. Profitability position is very much satisfactory in case of all the companies except Tata Petrodyne Limited, but profitability management is not satisfactory for all the companies under study. Financial stability analysis shows that all the companies are more dependent on debt capital, which bears a financial risk. Correlation and regression test results illustrates that profitability is positively and negatively associated with liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and financial stability indicators. Concluding statement: Management of liquidity and profitability of crude oil and natural gas companies in India should have been improved through controlling unnecessary imports in spite of the heavy demand of crude oil and natural gas in India and proper utilization of domestic oil reserves. At the same time, Indian government has to concern about rupee depreciation and interest rates.

Keywords: financial performance, crude oil and natural gas companies, India, linear regression

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7800 High Strain Rate Behavior of Harmonic Structure Designed Pure Nickel: Mechanical Characterization Microstructure Analysis and 3D Modelisation

Authors: D. Varadaradjou, H. Kebir, J. Mespoulet, D. Tingaud, S. Bouvier, P. Deconick, K. Ameyama, G. Dirras

Abstract:

The development of new architecture metallic alloys with controlled microstructures is one of the strategic ways for designing materials with high innovation potential and, particularly, with improved mechanical properties as required for structural materials. Indeed, unlike conventional counterparts, metallic materials having so-called harmonic structure displays strength and ductility synergy. The latter occurs due to a unique microstructure design: a coarse grain structure surrounded by a 3D continuous network of ultra-fine grain known as “core” and “shell,” respectively. In the present study, pure harmonic-structured (HS) Nickel samples were processed via controlled mechanical milling and followed by spark plasma sintering (SPS). The present work aims at characterizing the mechanical properties of HS pure Nickel under room temperature dynamic loading through a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) test and the underlying microstructure evolution. A stopper ring was used to maintain the strain at a fixed value of about 20%. Five samples (named B1 to B5) were impacted using different striker bar velocities from 14 m/s to 28 m/s, yielding strain rate in the range 4000-7000 s-1. Results were considered until a 10% deformation value, which is the deformation threshold for the constant strain rate assumption. The non-deformed (INIT – post-SPS process) and post-SHPB microstructure (B1 to B5) were investigated by EBSD. It was observed that while the strain rate is increased, the average grain size within the core decreases. An in-depth analysis of grains and grain boundaries was made to highlight the thermal (such as dynamic recrystallization) or mechanical (such as grains fragmentation by dislocation) contribution within the “core” and “shell.” One of the most widely used methods for determining the dynamic behavior of materials is the SHPB technique developed by Kolsky. A 3D simulation of the SHPB test was created through ABAQUS in dynamic explicit. This 3D simulation allows taking into account all modes of vibration. An inverse approach was used to identify the material parameters from the equation of Johnson-Cook (JC) by minimizing the difference between the numerical and experimental data. The JC’s parameters were identified using B1 and B5 samples configurations. Predictively, identified parameters of JC’s equation shows good result for the other sample configuration. Furthermore, mean rise of temperature within the harmonic Nickel sample can be obtained through ABAQUS and show an elevation of about 35°C for all fives samples. At this temperature, a thermal mechanism cannot be activated. Therefore, grains fragmentation within the core is mainly due to mechanical phenomena for a fixed final strain of 20%.

Keywords: 3D simulation, fragmentation, harmonic structure, high strain rate, Johnson-cook model, microstructure

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7799 Federated Knowledge Distillation with Collaborative Model Compression for Privacy-Preserving Distributed Learning

Authors: Shayan Mohajer Hamidi

Abstract:

Federated learning has emerged as a promising approach for distributed model training while preserving data privacy. However, the challenges of communication overhead, limited network resources, and slow convergence hinder its widespread adoption. On the other hand, knowledge distillation has shown great potential in compressing large models into smaller ones without significant loss in performance. In this paper, we propose an innovative framework that combines federated learning and knowledge distillation to address these challenges and enhance the efficiency of distributed learning. Our approach, called Federated Knowledge Distillation (FKD), enables multiple clients in a federated learning setting to collaboratively distill knowledge from a teacher model. By leveraging the collaborative nature of federated learning, FKD aims to improve model compression while maintaining privacy. The proposed framework utilizes a coded teacher model that acts as a reference for distilling knowledge to the client models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of FKD, we conduct extensive experiments on various datasets and models. We compare FKD with baseline federated learning methods and standalone knowledge distillation techniques. The results show that FKD achieves superior model compression, faster convergence, and improved performance compared to traditional federated learning approaches. Furthermore, FKD effectively preserves privacy by ensuring that sensitive data remains on the client devices and only distilled knowledge is shared during the training process. In our experiments, we explore different knowledge transfer methods within the FKD framework, including Fine-Tuning (FT), FitNet, Correlation Congruence (CC), Similarity-Preserving (SP), and Relational Knowledge Distillation (RKD). We analyze the impact of these methods on model compression and convergence speed, shedding light on the trade-offs between size reduction and performance. Moreover, we address the challenges of communication efficiency and network resource utilization in federated learning by leveraging the knowledge distillation process. FKD reduces the amount of data transmitted across the network, minimizing communication overhead and improving resource utilization. This makes FKD particularly suitable for resource-constrained environments such as edge computing and IoT devices. The proposed FKD framework opens up new avenues for collaborative and privacy-preserving distributed learning. By combining the strengths of federated learning and knowledge distillation, it offers an efficient solution for model compression and convergence speed enhancement. Future research can explore further extensions and optimizations of FKD, as well as its applications in domains such as healthcare, finance, and smart cities, where privacy and distributed learning are of paramount importance.

Keywords: federated learning, knowledge distillation, knowledge transfer, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
7798 Optimization of Surface Finish in Milling Operation Using Live Tooling via Taguchi Method

Authors: Harish Kumar Ponnappan, Joseph C. Chen

Abstract:

The main objective of this research is to optimize the surface roughness of a milling operation on AISI 1018 steel using live tooling on a HAAS ST-20 lathe. In this study, Taguchi analysis is used to optimize the milling process by investigating the effect of different machining parameters on surface roughness. The L9 orthogonal array is designed with four controllable factors with three different levels each and an uncontrollable factor, resulting in 18 experimental runs. The optimal parameters determined from Taguchi analysis were feed rate – 76.2 mm/min, spindle speed 1150 rpm, depth of cut – 0.762 mm and 2-flute TiN coated high-speed steel as tool material. The process capability Cp and process capability index Cpk values were improved from 0.62 and -0.44 to 1.39 and 1.24 respectively. The average surface roughness values from the confirmation runs were 1.30 µ, decreasing the defect rate from 87.72% to 0.01%. The purpose of this study is to efficiently utilize the Taguchi design to optimize the surface roughness in a milling operation using live tooling.

Keywords: live tooling, surface roughness, taguchi analysis, CNC milling operation, CNC turning operation

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7797 Algal/Bacterial Membrane Bioreactor for Bioremediation of Chemical Industrial Wastewater Containing 1,4 Dioxane

Authors: Ahmed Tawfik

Abstract:

Oxidation of 1,4 dioxane produces metabolites by-products involving glycolaldehyde and acids that have geno- and cytotoxicity impact on microbial degradation. Thereby, the incorporation of algae with bacteria in the treatment system would eliminate and overcome the accumulation of metabolites that are utilized as a carbon source for the build-up of biomass. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to assess the potential of algae/bacteria-based membrane bioreactor (AB-MBR) for biodegradation of 1,4 dioxane-rich wastewater at a high imposed loading rate. Three identical reactors, i.e., AB-MBR1, AB-MBR2, and AB-MBR3, were operated in parallel at 1,4 dioxane loading rates of 641.7, 320.9, and 160.4 mg/L. d., and HRTs of 6.0, 12 and 24 h. respectively. The AB-MBR1 achieved 1,4 dioxane removal rate of 263.7 mg/L.d., where the residual value in the treated effluent amounted to 94.4±22.9 mg/L. Reducing the 1,4 dioxane loading rate (LR) to 320.9 mg/L.d in the AB-MBR2 maximized the removal rate efficiency of 265.9 mg/L.d., with a removal efficiency of 82.8±3.2%. The minimum value of 1,4 dioxane of 17.3±1.8 mg/L in the treated effluent of AB-MBR3 was obtained at an HRT of 24.0 h and loading rate of 160.4 mg/L.d. The mechanism of 1,4 dioxane degradation in AB-MBR was a combination of volatilization (8.03±0.6%), UV oxidation (14.1±0.9%), microbial biodegradation (49.1±3.9%) and absorption/uptake and assimilation by algae (28.8±2.%). Further, the Thioclava, Afipia, and Mycobacterium genera oxidized and produced the required enzymes for hydrolysis and cleavage of the dioxane ring into 2-hydroxy-1,4 dioxane. Moreover, the fungi, i.e., Basidiomycota and Cryptomycota, played a big role in the degradation of the 1,4 dioxane into 2-hydroxy-1,4 dioxane. Xanthobacter and Mesorhizobium were involved in the metabolism process by secreting alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH), aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH), and glycolate oxidase. Bacteria and fungi produced dehydrogenase (DH) for the transformation of 2-hydroxy-1,4 dioxane into 2-hydroxy-ethoxyacetaldehyde. The latter is converted into Ethylene glycol by Aldehyde hydrogenase (ALDH). Ethylene glycol is oxidized into acids using Alcohol hydrogenase (ADH). The Diatomea, Chlorophyta, and Streptophyta utilize the metabolites for biomass assimilation and produce the required oxygen for further oxidation of the dioxane and its metabolites by-products of bacteria and fungi. The major portion of metabolites (ethylene glycol, glycolic acid, and oxalic acid were removed due to uptake and absorption by algae (43±4.3%), followed by adsorption (18.4±0.9%). The volatilization and UV oxidation contribution for the degradation of metabolites were 8.7±0.7% and 12.3±0.8%, respectively. The capabilities of genera Defluviimonas, Thioclava, Luteolibacter, and Afipia. The genera of Defluviimonas, Thioclava, Luteolibacter, and Mycobacterium were grown under a high 1,4 dioxane LR of 641.7 mg/L.d. The Chlorophyta (4.1-43.6%), Streptophyta (2.5-21.7%), and Diatomea (0.8-1.4%) phyla were dominant for degradation of 1,4 dioxane. The results of this study strongly demonstrated that the bioremediation and bioaugmentation process can safely remove 1,4 dioxane from industrial wastewater while minimizing environmental concerns and reducing economic costs.

Keywords: wastewater, membrane bioreactor, bacterial community, algal community

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7796 Determination of Material Constants and Zener-Hollomon Parameter of AA2017 Aluminium Alloy under Hot Compression Test

Authors: C. H. Shashikanth, M. J. Davidson, V. Suresh Babu

Abstract:

The formability of metals depends on a number of variables such as strain, strain rate, and temperature. Though most of the metals are formable at room temperature, few are not. To evaluate the workability of such metals at elevated temperatures, thermomechanical experiments should be carried out to find out the forming temperatures and strain rates. Though a number of constitutive relations are available to correlate the material parameters and the corresponding formability at elevated temperatures, the constitutive rule proposed by Arrhenius has been used in this work. Thus, in the present work, the material constants such as A (constant), α (stress multiplier), β (constant), and n (stress exponent) of AA 2017 has been found by conducting a series of hot compression tests at different temperatures such as 400°C, 450°C, 500°C, and 550°C and at different strain rates such as 0.16, 0.18, and 0.2. True stress (σt), true strains (εt) deformation activation energy (Q), and the Zener-Hollomon parameter (Z value) were also calculated. The results indicate that the value of ln (Z) decreases as the temperature increases and it increases as the strain rate increases.

Keywords: hot compression test, aluminium alloy, flow stress, activation energy

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7795 Assessment of Susceptibility of the Poultry Red Mite, Dermanyssus gallinae (Acari: Dermanyssidae) to Some Plant Preparations with Focus on Exposure Time

Authors: Shahrokh Ranjbar-Bahadori, Nima Farhadifar, Leila Mohammadyar

Abstract:

Plant preparations from thyme and garlic have been shown to be effective acaricides against the poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae. In a layer house with a history of D. gallinae problem, mites were detected in the monitoring traps for the first time and number of them was counted. Then, some rows of layer house was sprayed twice using a concentration of 0.21 mg/cm2 thyme essential oil and 0.07 mg/cm2 garlic juice and a similar row was used as an untreated control group. Red mite traps made of cardboard were used to assess the mite density during days 1 and 7 after treatment and always removed after 24 h. the collected mites were counted and the efficacy against all mite stages (larvae, nymphs and adults) was calculated. Results showed that on day 1 and 7 after the administration of garlic extract efficacy rate was 92.05% and 74.62%, respectively. Moreover, efficacy rate on day 1 and 7 was 89.4% and 95.37% when treatment was done with thyme essential oil. It is concluded that using garlic juice to control of D. gallinae is more effective on short time. But thyme essential oil has a long time effect in compare to garlic preparation.

Keywords: Dermanyssus gallinae, essential oil, garlic, thyme, efficacy

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7794 Good Environmental Governance Realization among the Three King Mongkut's Institutes of Technology in Bangkok, Thailand

Authors: Pastraporn Thipayasothorn, Vipawan Tadapratheep, Jintana Nokyoo

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A physical realization of good environmental governance about an environmental principle, educational psychology and architecture in the three King Mongkut's Institutes of Technology, is generated for researching physical environmental factors which related to the good environmental governance, communication between the good environmental governance and a physical environmental, and a physical environmental design policy. Moreover, we collected data by a survey, observation and questionnaire that participants are students of the three King Mongkut's Institutes of Technology, and analyzed a relationship between a building utilization and the good environmental governance awareness. We found that, from the data analysis, a balance and creativity participation which played as the project users and communities of the good governance environmental promotion in the institutes helps the good governance and environmental development in the future.

Keywords: built environment, good governance, environmental governance, physical environmental

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7793 The Effects of Water Fraction and Salinity on Crude Oil-Water Dispersions

Authors: Ramin Dabirian, Yi Zhang, Ilias Gavrielatos, Ram Mohan, Ovadia Shoham

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Oil-water emulsions can be found in almost every part of the petroleum industry, namely in reservoir rocks, drilling cuttings circulation, production in wells, transportation pipelines, surface facilities and refining process. However, it is necessary for oil production and refinery engineers to resolve the petroleum emulsion problems as well as to eliminate the contaminants in order to meet environmental standards, achieve the desired product quality and to improve equipment reliability and efficiency. A state-of-art Dispersion Characterization Rig (DCR) has been utilized to investigate crude oil-distilled water dispersion separation. Over 80 experimental tests were ran to investigate the flow behavior and stability of the dispersions. The experimental conditions include the effects of water cuts (25%, 50% and 75%), NaCl concentrations (0, 3.5% and 18%), mixture flow velocities (0.89 and 1.71 ft/s), and also orifice place types on the separation rate. The experimental data demonstrate that the water cut can significantly affects the separation time and efficiency. The dispersion with lower water cut takes longer time to separate and have low separation efficiency. The medium and lower water cuts will result in the formation of Mousse emulsion and the phase inversion happens around the medium water cut. The data also confirm that increasing the NaCl concentration in aqueous phase can increase the crude oil water dispersion separation efficiency especially at higher salinities. The separation profile for dispersions with lower salt concentrations has a lower sedimentation rate slope before the inflection point. Dispersions in all tests with higher salt concentrations have a larger sedimenting rate. The presence of NaCl can influence the interfacial tension gradients along the interface and it plays a role in avoiding the Mousse emulsion formation.

Keywords: oil-water dispersion, separation mechanism, phase inversion, emulsion formation

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7792 Thermohydraulic Performance of Double Flow Solar Air Heater with Corrugated Absorber

Authors: S. P. Sharma, Som Nath Saha

Abstract:

This paper deals with the analytical investigation of thermal and thermohydraulic performance of double flow solar air heaters with corrugated and flat plate absorber. A mathematical model of double flow solar air heater has been presented, and a computer program in C++ language is developed to estimate the outlet temperature of air for the evaluation of thermal and thermohydraulic efficiency by solving the governing equations numerically using relevant correlations for heat transfer coefficients. The results obtained from the mathematical model is compared with the available experimental results and it is found to be reasonably good. The results show that the double flow solar air heaters have higher efficiency than conventional solar air heater, although the double flow corrugated absorber is superior to that of flat plate double flow solar air heater. It is also observed that the thermal efficiency increases with increase in mass flow rate; however, thermohydraulic efficiency increases with increase in mass flow rate up to a certain limit, attains the maximum value, then thereafter decreases sharply.

Keywords: corrugated absorber, double flow, solar air heater, thermos-hydraulic efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
7791 Outcome of Obstetric Admission to General Intensive Care over a Period of 3 Years

Authors: Kamel Abdelaziz Mohamed

Abstract:

Intoduction:Inadequate knowledge about obstetric admission and infrequent dealing with the obstetric patients in ICU results in high mortality and morbidity. Aim of the work:To evaluate the indications, course, severity of illness, and outcome of obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients and Methods: We collected baseline data and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores. ICU mortality was the primary outcome. Results: Seventy obstetric patients were admitted to the ICU over 3 years, 36 of these patients (51.4 %) were admitted during the antepartum period. The primary obstetric indication for ICU admission was pregnancy-induced hypertension (22 patients, 31.4%), followed by sepsis (8 patients, 11.4%) as the leading non-obstetric admission. The mean APACHE II score was 19.6. The predicted mortality rate based on the APACHE II score was 22%, however, only 4 maternal deaths (5.7%) were among the obstetric patients admitted to the ICU. Conclusion: Evaluation of obstetric patients by (APACHE II) scores showed higher predicted mortality rate, however the overall mortality was lower. Regular follow up, together with early detection of complications and prompt ICU admission necessitating proper management by specialized team can improve mortality.

Keywords: obstetric, complication, postpartum, sepsis

Procedia PDF Downloads 291
7790 Characterization of Gamma Irradiated PVDF and PVDF/Graphene Oxide Composites by Spectroscopic Techniques

Authors: Juliana V. Pereira, Adriana S. M. Batista, Jefferson P. Nascimento, Clascídia A. Furtado, Luiz O. Faria

Abstract:

The combination of the properties of graphene oxide (OG) and PVDF homopolymer makes their combined composite materials as multifunctional systems with great potential. Knowledge of the molecular structure is essential for better use. In this work, the degradation of PVDF polymer exposed to gamma irradiation in oxygen atmosphere in high dose rate has been studied and compared to degradation of PVDF/OG composites. The samples were irradiated with a Co-60 source at constant dose rate, with doses ranging from 100 kGy to 1,000 kGy. In FTIR data shown that the formation of oxidation products was at the both samples with formation of carbonyl and hydroxyl groups amongst the most prevalent products in the pure PVDF samples. In the other hand, the composites samples exhibit less presence of degradation products with predominant formation of carbonyl groups, these results also seen in the UV-Vis analysis. The results show that the samples of composites may have greater resistance to the irradiation process, since they have less degradation products than pure PVDF samples seen by spectroscopic techniques.

Keywords: gamma irradiation, PVDF, PVDF/OG composites, spectroscopic techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 558
7789 Investigation and Comprehensive Benefit Analysis of 11 Typical Polar-Based Agroforestry Models Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process in Anhui Province, Eastern China

Authors: Zhihua Cao, Hongfei Zhao, Zhongneng Wu

Abstract:

The development of polar-based agroforestry was necessary due to the influence of the timber market environment in China, which can promote the coordinated development of forestry and agriculture, and gain remarkable ecological, economic and social benefits. The main agroforestry models of the main poplar planting area in Huaibei plain and along the Yangtze River plain were carried out. 11 typical management models of poplar were selected to sum up: pure poplar forest, poplar-rape-soybean, poplar-wheat-soybean, poplar-rape-cotton, poplar-wheat, poplar-chicken, poplar-duck, poplar-sheep, poplar-Agaricus blazei, poplar-oil peony, poplar-fish, represented by M0-M10, respectively. 12 indexes related with economic, ecological and social benefits (annual average cost, net income, ratio of output to investment, payback period of investment, land utilization ratio, utilization ratio of light energy, improvement and system stability of ecological and production environment, product richness, labor capacity, cultural quality of labor force, sustainability) were screened out to carry on the comprehensive evaluation and analysis to 11 kinds of typical agroforestry models based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results showed that the economic benefit of each agroforestry model was in the order of: M8 > M6 > M9 > M7 > M5 > M10 > M4 > M1 > M2 > M3 > M0. The economic benefit of poplar-A. blazei model was the highest (332, 800 RMB / hm²), followed by poplar-duck and poplar-oil peony model (109, 820RMB /hm², 5, 7226 RMB /hm²). The order of comprehensive benefit was: M8 > M4 > M9 > M6 > M1 > M2 > M3 > M7 > M5 > M10 > M0. The economic benefit and comprehensive benefit of each agroforestry model were higher than that of pure poplar forest. The comprehensive benefit of poplar-A. blazei model was the highest, and that of poplar-wheat model ranked second, while its economic benefit was not high. Next were poplar-oil peony and poplar-duck models. It was suggested that the model of poplar-wheat should be adopted in the plain along the Yangtze River, and the whole cycle mode of poplar-grain, popalr-A. blazei, or poplar-oil peony should be adopted in Huaibei plain, northern Anhui. Furthermore, wheat, rape, and soybean are the main crops before the stand was closed; the agroforestry model of edible fungus or Chinese herbal medicine can be carried out when the stand was closed in order to maximize the comprehensive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for forest farmers in the selection of poplar agroforestry model in the future and to provide the basic data for the sustainable and efficient study of poplar agroforestry in Anhui province, eastern China.

Keywords: agroforestry, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), comprehensive benefit, model, poplar

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
7788 Spatial Analysis in the Impact of Aquifer Capacity Reduction on Land Subsidence Rate in Semarang City between 2014-2017

Authors: Yudo Prasetyo, Hana Sugiastu Firdaus, Diyanah Diyanah

Abstract:

The phenomenon of the lack of clean water supply in several big cities in Indonesia is a major problem in the development of urban areas. Moreover, in the city of Semarang, the population density and growth of physical development is very high. Continuous and large amounts of underground water (aquifer) exposure can result in a drastically aquifer supply declining in year by year. Especially, the intensity of aquifer use in the fulfilment of household needs and industrial activities. This is worsening by the land subsidence phenomenon in some areas in the Semarang city. Therefore, special research is needed to know the spatial correlation of the impact of decreasing aquifer capacity on the land subsidence phenomenon. This is necessary to give approve that the occurrence of land subsidence can be caused by loss of balance of pressure on below the land surface. One method to observe the correlation pattern between the two phenomena is the application of remote sensing technology based on radar and optical satellites. Implementation of Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DINSAR) or Small Baseline Area Subset (SBAS) method in SENTINEL-1A satellite image acquisition in 2014-2017 period will give a proper pattern of land subsidence. These results will be spatially correlated with the aquifer-declining pattern in the same time period. Utilization of survey results to 8 monitoring wells with depth in above 100 m to observe the multi-temporal pattern of aquifer change capacity. In addition, the pattern of aquifer capacity will be validated with 2 underground water cavity maps from observation of ministries of energy and natural resources (ESDM) in Semarang city. Spatial correlation studies will be conducted on the pattern of land subsidence and aquifer capacity using overlapping and statistical methods. The results of this correlation will show how big the correlation of decrease in underground water capacity in influencing the distribution and intensity of land subsidence in Semarang city. In addition, the results of this study will also be analyzed based on geological aspects related to hydrogeological parameters, soil types, aquifer species and geological structures. The results of this study will be a correlation map of the aquifer capacity on the decrease in the face of the land in the city of Semarang within the period 2014-2017. So hopefully the results can help the authorities in spatial planning and the city of Semarang in the future.

Keywords: aquifer, differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DINSAR), land subsidence, small baseline area subset (SBAS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 168
7787 Considerations for the Use of High Intensity Interval Training in Secondary Physical Education

Authors: Amy Stringer, Resa Chandler

Abstract:

High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) involves a 3-10-minute circuit of various exercises which is a viable alternative to a traditional cardiovascular and strength training regimen. Research suggests that measures of health-related fitness can either be maintained or actually improve with the use of this training method. After conducting a 6-week HIIT research study with 10-14 year old children, considerations for using a daily HIIT workout are presented. Is the use of HIIT with children a reasonable consideration for physical education programs? The benefits and challenges of this type of an intervention are identified. This study is significant in that achieving fitness gains in a small amount of daily class time is an attractive concept – especially for physical education teachers who often do not have the time necessary to accomplish all of their curricular goals in the amount of class time assigned. Basic methodologies include students participating in a circuit of exercises for 7-10 minutes at 80-95% of max heart rate as measured by heart rate monitors. Student pre and post fitness test data were collected for cardio-vascular endurance, muscular endurance, and body composition. Research notes as well as commentary by the teachers and researchers who participated in the HIIT study contributed to the understanding of the cost-benefit analysis. Major findings of the study are that HIIT has limited effectiveness but is a good choice for limited class times. Student efficacy of their ability to complete the exercises and visible heart rate data were considered to be significant factors in success of the HIIT study. The effective use of technology promoting positive audience effect during the display of heart rate data was more important at the beginning of the study than at the end. Student ‘buy-in’ and motivation, teacher motivation and ‘buy-in’, the variety of activities in the circuit and the fitness level of the student at the beginning of the study were also findings influencing the fitness outcomes of the study. Concluding Statement: High intensity interval training can be used effectively in a secondary physical education program. It is not a ‘magic bullet’ to produce health-related fitness outcomes in every student but it is an effective tool to enhance student fitness in a limited time and contribute to the goals of the program.

Keywords: cardio vascular fitness, children, high intensity interval training, physical education

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
7786 Online Monitoring Rheological Property of Polymer Melt during Injection Molding

Authors: Chung-Chih Lin, Chien-Liang Wu

Abstract:

The detection of the polymer melt state during manufacture process is regarded as an efficient way to control the molded part quality in advance. Online monitoring rheological property of polymer melt during processing procedure provides an approach to understand the melt state immediately. Rheological property reflects the polymer melt state at different processing parameters and is very important in injection molding process especially. An approach that demonstrates how to calculate rheological property of polymer melt through in-process measurement, using injection molding as an example, is proposed in this study. The system consists of two sensors and a data acquisition module can process the measured data, which are used for the calculation of rheological properties of polymer melt. The rheological properties of polymer melt discussed in this study include shear rate and viscosity which are investigated with respect to injection speed and melt temperature. The results show that the effect of injection speed on the rheological properties is apparent, especially for high melt temperature and should be considered for precision molding process.

Keywords: injection molding, melt viscosity, shear rate, monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
7785 Sildenafil Citrate (Viagra) Suppositories Are Promising Approach for Treatment of Unexplained Infertility

Authors: Shahinaz El-Shourbagy El-Shourbagy, Ahmed M. E Ossman Ossman, Ashraf El-Mohamady El-Mohamady

Abstract:

Objective: To investigate if there is a role of sildenafil citrate (Viagra) in the treatment of infertile couples for idiopathic cause. Design: An observational study. Setting: Infertility outpatient clinic of Tanta University Hospital Egypt. Patient(s): 50 unexplained infertility women {endometrial thickness (EM) and the mean resistance index (RI)} compared to 50 fertile control group attended for check-up in the same period and receiving no treatment. Intervention(s): unexplained infertility women were given 25 mg of sildenafil citrate suppositories four times per day for seven days starting from the 5th day of the menstrual cycle for three cycles. Main Outcome Measures: EM and RI of endometrial spiral artery were assessed by transvaginal color-pulsed Doppler ultrasound in unexplained infertility women before and after sildenafil citrate treatment and compared with control. The conception rate and pregnancy outcome were recorded in the two groups. Result(s): Women with unexplained infertility had significantly thinner endometrium and a higher spiral artery resistance index, meaning lower peri-implantation blood flow than the fertile controls. Sildenafil citrate treated women showed a statistically significant increase in endometrial thickness (p < 0.001) and a significant decrease in the mean spiral artery resistance index (p < 0.001) giving a better conception rate. Conclusion: Sildenafil citrate suppositories treatment enhance the endometrial blood flow through decreasing spiral artery resistance index 'RI' and consequently improve endometrial growth and receptivity in cases of unexplained infertility thus giving a better conception rate.

Keywords: Unexplained infertility, endometrial blood flow, endome¬trial receptivity, color-pulsed Doppler ultrasound; RI (resis¬tance index, Sildenafil citrate (Viagra)

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
7784 Measurement of Radon Exhalation Rate, Natural Radioactivity, and Radiation Hazard Assessment in Soil Samples from the Surrounding Area of Kasimpur Thermal Power Plant Kasimpur (U. P.), India

Authors: Anil Sharma, Ajay Kumar Mahur, R. G. Sonkawade, A. C. Sharma, R. Prasad

Abstract:

In coal fired thermal power stations, large amount of fly ash is produced after burning of coal. Fly ash is spread and distributed in the surrounding area by air and may be deposited on the soil of the region surrounding the power plant. Coal contains increased levels of these radionuclides and fly ash may increase the radioactivity in the soil around the power plant. Radon atoms entering into the pore space from the mineral grain are transported by diffusion and advection through this space until they in turn decay or are released into the atmosphere. In the present study, Soil samples were collected from the region around a Kasimpur Thermal Power Plant, Kasimpur, Aligarh (U.P.). Radon activity, radon surface exhalation and mass exhalation rates were measured using “sealed can technique” using LR 115-type II nuclear track detectors. Radon activities vary from 92.9 to 556.8 Bq m-3 with mean value of 279.8 Bq m-3. Surface exhalation rates (EX) in these samples are found to vary from 33.4 to 200.2 mBq m-2 h-1 with an average value of 100.5 mBq m-2 h-1 whereas, Mass exhalation rates (EM) vary from 1.2 to 7.7 mBq kg-1 h-1 with an average value of 3.8 mBq kg-1 h-1. Activity concentrations of radionuclides were measured in these samples by using a low level NaI (Tl) based gamma ray spectrometer. Activity concentrations of 226Ra 232Th and 40K vary from 12 to 49 Bq kg-1, 24 to 49 Bq kg-1 and 135 to 546 Bq kg-1 with overall mean values of 30.3 Bq kg-1, 38.5 Bq kg-1 and 317.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. Radium equivalent activity has been found to vary from 80.0 to 143.7 Bq kg-1 with an average value of 109.7 Bq kg-1. Absorbed dose rate varies from 36.1 to 66.4 nGy h-1 with an average value of 50.4 nGy h-1 and corresponding outdoor annual effective dose varies from 0.044 to 0.081 mSv with an average value of 0.061 mSv. Values of external and internal hazard index Hex, Hin in this study vary from 0.21 to 0.38 and 0.27 to 0.50 with an average value of 0.29 and 0.37, Respectively. The results will be discussed in light of various factors.

Keywords: natural radioactivity, radium equivalent activity, absorbed dose rate, gamma ray spectroscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 346
7783 Efficient of Technology Remediation Soil That Contaminated by Petroleum Based on Heat without Combustion

Authors: Gavin Hutama Farandiarta, Hegi Adi Prabowo, Istiara Rizqillah Hanifah, Millati Hanifah Saprudin, Raden Iqrafia Ashna

Abstract:

The increase of the petroleum’s consumption rate encourages industries to optimize and increase the activity in processing crude oil into petroleum. However, although the result gives a lot of benefits to humans worldwide, it also gives negative impact to the environment. One of the negative impacts of processing crude oil is the soil will be contaminated by petroleum sewage sludge. This petroleum sewage sludge, contains hydrocarbon compound and it can be calculated by Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH).Petroleum sludge waste is accounted as hazardous and toxic. The soil contamination caused by the petroleum sludge is very hard to get rid of. However, there is a way to manage the soil that is contaminated by petroleum sludge, which is by using heat (thermal desorption) in the process of remediation. There are several factors that affect the success rate of the remediation with the help of heat which are temperature, time, and air pressure in the desorption column. The remediation process using the help of heat is an alternative in soil recovery from the petroleum pollution which highly effective, cheap, and environmentally friendly that produces uncontaminated soil and the petroleum that can be used again.

Keywords: petroleum sewage sludge, remediation soil, thermal desorption, total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

Procedia PDF Downloads 226
7782 DeClEx-Processing Pipeline for Tumor Classification

Authors: Gaurav Shinde, Sai Charan Gongiguntla, Prajwal Shirur, Ahmed Hambaba

Abstract:

Health issues are significantly increasing, putting a substantial strain on healthcare services. This has accelerated the integration of machine learning in healthcare, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic. The utilization of machine learning in healthcare has grown significantly. We introduce DeClEx, a pipeline that ensures that data mirrors real-world settings by incorporating Gaussian noise and blur and employing autoencoders to learn intermediate feature representations. Subsequently, our convolutional neural network, paired with spatial attention, provides comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art pre-trained models while achieving a threefold improvement in training speed. Furthermore, we provide interpretable results using explainable AI techniques. We integrate denoising and deblurring, classification, and explainability in a single pipeline called DeClEx.

Keywords: machine learning, healthcare, classification, explainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 19
7781 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 210