Search results for: decision based artificial neural network

Authors: Sima Najafzadehkhoei, George Vega Yon

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This paper presents an approach for calibrating Agent-Based Models (ABMs) efficiently, utilizing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. These machine learning techniques are applied to Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models, which are a core framework in the study of epidemiology. Our method replicates parameter values from observed trajectory curves, enhancing the accuracy of predictions when compared to traditional calibration techniques. Through the use of simulated data, we train the models to predict epidemiological parameters more accurately. Two primary approaches were explored: one where the number of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals is fully known, and another using only the number of infected individuals. Our method shows promise for application in other ABMs where calibration is computationally intensive and expensive.

Keywords: ABM, calibration, CNN, LSTM, epidemiology

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Authors: Jeremy Goldsmith

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The Gambia, the smallest country in mainland Africa and one of the poorest countries on Earth, is currently experiencing historically unprecedented levels of out-migration to Europe. As a result, Gambians are currently among the top four nationalities emigrating to Europe. The central question that this thesis will address is: what factors impact the migration-related decision-making capabilities of Gambians? Based on interviews with NGOs, as well as those who have migrated and returned, are planning to migrate, and their friends and families, a pattern will emerge. This pattern will be woven into first person narratives which will explore the politico-economic, environmental, and socio-cultural factors that inform individual decision-making with regards to migration.

Keywords: migration, The Gambia, Africa, politico-economic, sociocultural, environmental

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Authors: Mariam Shah

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Strict liability is frequently used in magistrate’s courts for TV license and driving offences.There is existing research suggesting that the strict liability approach to criminal offences can result in ‘absurd’ judicial outcomes, or potentially ‘injustice’.This paper will discuss the potential merits of strict liability as a method for dealing with shoplifting offences.Currently, there is disparity in sentencing outcomes in the UK, particularly in relation to shoplifting offences.This paper will question whether ‘injustice’ is actually in the differentiation of defendants based upon their ‘perceived’ circumstances, which could be resulting in arbitrary judicial decision making.

Keywords: arbitrary, decision making, judicial decision making, shoplifting, stereotypes, strict liability

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Authors: Rashid Ahmed , John N. Avaritsiotis

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Many signal subspace-based approaches have already been proposed for determining the fixed Direction of Arrival (DOA) of plane waves impinging on an array of sensors. Two procedures for DOA estimation based neural networks are presented. First, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to extract the maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector from signal subspace to estimate DOA. Second, minor component analysis (MCA) is a statistical method of extracting the eigenvector associated with the smallest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix. In this paper, we will modify a Minor Component Analysis (MCA(R)) learning algorithm to enhance the convergence, where a convergence is essential for MCA algorithm towards practical applications. The learning rate parameter is also presented, which ensures fast convergence of the algorithm, because it has direct effect on the convergence of the weight vector and the error level is affected by this value. MCA is performed to determine the estimated DOA. Preliminary results will be furnished to illustrate the convergences results achieved.

Keywords: Direction of Arrival, neural networks, Principle Component Analysis, Minor Component Analysis

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Authors: Abdelhamid Louliej, Younes Jabrane

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Satellites are becoming indispensable assets to fifth-generation (5G) new radio architecture, complementing wireless and terrestrial communication links. The combination of satellites and 5G architecture allows consumers to access all next-generation services anytime, anywhere, including scenarios, like traveling to remote areas (without coverage). Nevertheless, this solution faces several challenges, such as a significant propagation delay, Doppler frequency shift, and high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), causing signal distortion due to the non-linear saturation of the High-Power Amplifier (HPA). To compensate for HPA non-linearity in 5G satellite transmission, an efficient pre-distorter scheme using Neural Networks (NN) is proposed. To assess the proposed NN pre-distorter, two types of HPA were investigated: Travelling Wave Tube Amplifier (TWTA) and Solid-State Power Amplifier (SSPA). The results show that the NN pre-distorter design presents EVM improvement by 95.26%. NMSE and ACPR were reduced by -43,66 dB and 24.56 dBm, respectively. Moreover, the system suffers no degradation of the Bit Error Rate (BER) for TWTA and SSPA amplifiers.

Keywords: satellites, 5G, neural networks, HPA, TWTA, SSPA, EVM, NMSE, ACPR

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Authors: S. Abera, T. Gidey, W. Terefe

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Introduction: Testing for HIV is the key entry point to HIV prevention, treatment, and care and support services. Hence, predictive data mining techniques can greatly benefit to analyze and discover new patterns from huge datasets like that of EDHS 2011 data. Objectives: The objective of this study is to build a predictive modeling for HIV testing and identify determinants of HIV testing for adults with age above fourteen years using data mining techniques. Methods: Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) was used to predict the model for HIV testing and explore association rules between HIV testing and the selected attributes among adult Ethiopians. Decision tree, Naïve-Bayes, logistic regression and artificial neural networks of data mining techniques were used to build the predictive models. Results: The target dataset contained 30,625 study participants; of which 16, 515 (53.9%) were women. Nearly two-fifth; 17,719 (58%), have never been tested for HIV while the rest 12,906 (42%) had been tested. Ethiopians with higher wealth index, higher educational level, belonging 20 to 29 years old, having no stigmatizing attitude towards HIV positive person, urban residents, having HIV related knowledge, information about family planning on mass media and knowing a place where to get testing for HIV showed an increased patterns with respect to HIV testing. Conclusion and Recommendation: Public health interventions should consider the identified determinants to promote people to get testing for HIV.

Keywords: data mining, HIV, testing, ethiopia

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Authors: Felix Liedel

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The rise of artificial intelligence has numerous and far-reaching consequences. In addition to the obvious consequences for entire professions, the increasing interaction with chatbots also has a wide range of social consequences and implications. We are already increasingly used to interacting with digital chatbots, be it in virtual consulting situations, creative development processes or even in building personal or intimate virtual relationships. A media-theoretical classification of these phenomena has so far been difficult, partly because the interactive element in the exchange with artificial intelligence has undeniable similarities to human-to-human communication but is not identical to it. The proposed study, therefore, aims to reformulate the concept of symbolic interaction in the tradition of George Herbert Mead as symbolic interactivity in communication with chatbots. In particular, Mead's socio-psychological considerations will be brought into dialog with the specific conditions of digital media, the special dispositive situation of chatbots and the characteristics of artificial intelligence. One example that illustrates this particular communication situation with chatbots is so-called consensus fiction: In face-to-face communication, we use symbols on the assumption that they will be interpreted in the same or a similar way by the other person. When briefing a chatbot, it quickly becomes clear that this is by no means the case: only the bot's response shows whether the initial request corresponds to the sender's actual intention. This makes it clear that chatbots do not just respond to requests. Rather, they function equally as projection surfaces for their communication partners but also as distillations of generalized social attitudes. The personalities of the chatbot avatars result, on the one hand, from the way we behave towards them and, on the other, from the content we have learned in advance. Similarly, we interpret the response behavior of the chatbots and make it the subject of our own actions with them. In conversation with the virtual chatbot, we enter into a dialog with ourselves but also with the content that the chatbot has previously learned. In our exchanges with chatbots, we, therefore, interpret socially influenced signs and behave towards them in an individual way according to the conditions that the medium deems acceptable. This leads to the emergence of situationally determined digital identities that are in exchange with the real self but are not identical to it: In conversation with digital chatbots, we bring our own impulses, which are brought into permanent negotiation with a generalized social attitude by the chatbot. This also leads to numerous media-ethical follow-up questions. The proposed approach is a continuation of my dissertation on moral decision-making in so-called interactive films. In this dissertation, I attempted to develop a concept of symbolic interactivity based on Mead. Current developments in artificial intelligence are now opening up new areas of application.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chatbot, media theory, symbolic interactivity

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Authors: O. A. Lawal, O. A Ojesanmi

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The demand for wireless cellular services continues to increase while the radio resources remain limited. Thus, network operators have to continuously manage the scarce radio resources in order to have an improved quality of service for mobile users. This paper proposes how to handle the problem of congestion in the mobile network by prioritizing handoff call, using the guard channel allocation scheme. The research uses specific threshold value for the time of allocation of the channel in the algorithm. The scheme would be simulated by generating various data for different traffics in the network as it would be in the real life. The result would be used to determine the probability of handoff call dropping and the probability of the new call blocking as a way of measuring the network performance.

Keywords: call block, channel, handoff, mobile cellular network

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Hanan Farag

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Parallel Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSP) is a multi-objective and multi constrains NP- optimization problem. Traditional Artificial Intelligence techniques have been widely used; however, they could be trapped into the local minimum without reaching the optimum solution, so we propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence model (AI) with Discrete Breeding Swarm (DBS) added to traditional Artificial Intelligence to avoid this trapping. This model is applied in the cost minimization of the Car Sequencing and Operator Allocation (CSOA) problem. The practical experiment shows that our model outperforms other techniques in cost minimization.

Keywords: parallel job shop scheduling problem, artificial intelligence, discrete breeding swarm, car sequencing and operator allocation, cost minimization

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Authors: Ali A. Abdollahi

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During the last several decades, scientists have consistently applied Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods in making decisions about multi-faceted, complicated subjects. While making such decisions and in order to achieve more accurate evaluations, they have regularly used a variety of criteria instead of applying just one Optimum Evaluation Criterion. The method presented here utilizes both ‘quantity’ and ‘quality’ to assess the function of the Multiple-Criteria method. Applying Data envelopment analysis (DEA), weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), Weighted Sum Approach (WSA), Analytic Network Process (ANP), and Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes (CCR) methods, we have analyzed thirteen parks in Kerman city. It further indicates that the functions of WASPAS and WSA are compatible with each other, but also that their deviation from DEA is extensive. Finally, the results for the CCR technique do not match the results of the DEA technique. Our study indicates that the ANP method, with the average rate of 1/51, ranks closest to the DEA method, which has an average rate of 1/49.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Charnes Cooper Rhodes (CCR), Weighted Sum Approach (WSA)

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Authors: Nazmul Shahadat, Anthony S. Maida

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In recent years, hypercomplex inspired neural networks improved deep CNN architectures due to their ability to share weights across input channels and thus improve cohesiveness of representations within the layers. The work described herein studies the effect of replacing existing layers in an Axial Attention ResNet with their quaternion variants that use cross-channel weight sharing to assess the effect on image classification. We expect the quaternion enhancements to produce improved feature maps with more interlinked representations. We experiment with the stem of the network, the bottleneck layer, and the fully connected backend by replacing them with quaternion versions. These modifications lead to novel architectures which yield improved accuracy performance on the ImageNet300k classification dataset. Our baseline networks for comparison were the original real-valued ResNet, the original quaternion-valued ResNet, and the Axial Attention ResNet. Since improvement was observed regardless of which part of the network was modified, there is a promise that this technique may be generally useful in improving classification accuracy for a large class of networks.

Keywords: axial attention, representational networks, weight sharing, cross-channel correlations, quaternion-enhanced axial attention, deep networks

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Authors: Yazan Al-Kofahi, Jamal Alqawasmi.

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In this study, a comprehensive literature review (SLR) was conducted, with the main goal of assessing the existing literature about how artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) models are used in sustainable architecture applications and issues including thermal comfort satisfaction, energy efficiency, cost prediction and many others issues. For this reason, the search strategy was initiated by using different databases, including Scopus, Springer and Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria were used by two research strings related to DL, ML and sustainable architecture. Moreover, the timeframe for the inclusion of the papers was open, even though most of the papers were conducted in the previous four years. As a paper filtration strategy, conferences and books were excluded from database search results. Using these inclusion and exclusion criteria, the search was conducted, and a sample of 59 papers was selected as the final included papers in the analysis. The data extraction phase was basically to extract the needed data from these papers, which were analyzed and correlated. The results of this SLR showed that there are many applications of ML and DL in Sustainable buildings, and that this topic is currently trendy. It was found that most of the papers focused their discussions on addressing Environmental Sustainability issues and factors using machine learning predictive models, with a particular emphasis on the use of Decision Tree algorithms. Moreover, it was found that the Random Forest repressor demonstrates strong performance across all feature selection groups in terms of cost prediction of the building as a machine-learning predictive model.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, artificial intelligence, sustainable building

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Authors: Mohamed H. Khalil

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Water is one of the most crucial elements which influence human lives and development. Noteworthy, over the last few years, GIS plays a significant role in optimizing water management systems, especially after exponential developing in this sector. In this context, the Egyptian government initiated an advanced ‘GIS-Web Based System’. This system is efficiently designed to tangibly assist and optimize the complement and integration of data between departments of Call Center, Operation and Maintenance, and laboratory. The core of this system is a unified ‘Data Model’ for all the spatial and tabular data of the corresponding departments. The system is professionally built to provide advanced functionalities such as interactive data collection, dynamic monitoring, multi-user editing capabilities, enhancing data retrieval, integrated work-flow, different access levels, and correlative information record/track. Noteworthy, this cost-effective system contributes significantly not only in the completeness of the base-map (93%), the water network (87%) in high level of details GIS format, enhancement of the performance of the customer service, but also in reducing the operating costs/day-to-day operations (~ 5-10 %). In addition, the proposed system facilitates data exchange between different departments (Call Center, Operation and Maintenance, and laboratory), which allowed a better understanding/analyzing of complex situations. Furthermore, this system reflected tangibly on: (i) dynamic environmental monitor/water quality indicators (ammonia, turbidity, TDS, sulfate, iron, pH, etc.), (ii) improved effectiveness of the different water departments, (iii) efficient deep advanced analysis, (iv) advanced web-reporting tools (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annually), (v) tangible planning synthesizing spatial and tabular data; and finally, (vi) scalable decision support system. It is worth to highlight that the proposed future plan (second phase) of this system encompasses scalability will extend to include integration with departments of Billing and SCADA. This scalability will comprise advanced functionalities in association with the existing one to allow further sustainable contributions.

Keywords: GIS Web-Based, base-map, water network, decision support system

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Authors: Khairani Binti Supyan, Fatimah Khalid, Mas Rina Mustaffa, Azreen Bin Azman, Amirul Azuani Romle

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Perennial plant classification plays a significant role in various agricultural and environmental applications, assisting in plant identification, disease detection, and biodiversity monitoring. Nevertheless, attaining high accuracy in perennial plant image classification remains challenging due to the complex variations in plant appearance, the diverse range of environmental conditions under which images are captured, and the inherent variability in image quality stemming from various factors such as lighting conditions, camera settings, and focus. This paper proposes an adaptation approach to optimize perennial plant image classification by fine-tuning the pre-trained DNNs model. This paper explores the efficacy of fine-tuning prevalent architectures, namely VGG16, ResNet50, and InceptionV3, leveraging transfer learning to tailor the models to the specific characteristics of perennial plant datasets. A subset of the MYLPHerbs dataset consisted of 6 perennial plant species of 13481 images under various environmental conditions that were used in the experiments. Different strategies for fine-tuning, including adjusting learning rates, training set sizes, data augmentation, and architectural modifications, were investigated. The experimental outcomes underscore the effectiveness of fine-tuning deep neural networks for perennial plant image classification, with ResNet50 showcasing the highest accuracy of 99.78%. Despite ResNet50's superior performance, both VGG16 and InceptionV3 achieved commendable accuracy of 99.67% and 99.37%, respectively. The overall outcomes reaffirm the robustness of the fine-tuning approach across different deep neural network architectures, offering insights into strategies for optimizing model performance in the domain of perennial plant image classification.

Keywords: perennial plants, image classification, deep neural networks, fine-tuning, transfer learning, VGG16, ResNet50, InceptionV3

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Authors: Hsuan Yu Lai, Hsuan Hsuan Chang

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The consumer decision process steps through problems by weighing evidence, examining alternatives, and choosing a decision path. Currently, the COVID 19 made the tourism industry encounter a huge challenge and suffer the biggest amount of economic loss. It would be very important to reexamine the decision-making process model, especially after the pandemic, and consider the differences among different generations. The tourism industry has been significantly impacted by the global outbreak of COVID-19, but as the pandemic subsides, the sector is recovering. This study addresses the scarcity of research on travel decision-making patterns among generations in Taiwan. Specifically targeting individuals who frequently traveled abroad before the pandemic, the study explores differences in decision-making at different stages post-outbreak. So this study investigates differences in travel decision-making among individuals from different generations during/after the COVID-19 pandemic and examines the moderating effects of social media usage and individuals' perception of health risks. The study hypotheses are “there are significant differences in the decision-making process including travel motivation, information searching preferences, and criteria for decision-making” and that social-media usage and health-risk perception would moderate the results of the previous study hypothesis. The X, Y, and Z generations are defined and categorized based on a literature review. The survey collected data including their social-economic background, travel behaviors, motivations, considerations for destinations, travel information searching preferences, and decision-making criteria before/after the pandemic based on the reviews of previous studies. Data from 656 online questionnaires were collected between January to May 2023 and from Taiwanese travel consumers who used to travel at least one time abroad before Covid-19. SPSS is used to analyze the data with One-Way ANOVA and Two-Way ANOVA. The analysis includes demand perception, information gathering, alternative comparison, purchase behavior, and post-travel experience sharing. Social media influence and perception of health risks are examined as moderating factors. The findings show that before the pandemic, the Y Generation preferred natural environments, while the X Generation favored historical and cultural sites compared to the Z Generation. However, after the outbreak, the Z Generation displayed a significant preference for entertainment activities. This study contributes to understanding changes in travel decision-making patterns following COVID-19 and the influence of social media and health risks. The findings have practical implications for the tourism industry.

Keywords: consumer decision-making, generation study, health risk perception, post-pandemic era, social media

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Authors: Alexander Hudson, Shaogang Gong

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Structure determination is key to understanding protein function at a molecular level. Whilst significant advances have been made in predicting structure and function from amino acid sequence, researchers must still rely on expensive, time-consuming analytical methods to visualise detailed protein conformation. In this study, we demonstrate that it is possible to make accurate (≥80%) predictions of protein class and architecture from structures determined at low (>3A) resolution, using a deep convolutional neural network trained on high-resolution (≤3A) structures represented as 2D matrices. Thus, we provide proof of concept for high-speed, low-cost protein structure classification at low resolution, and a basis for extension to prediction of function. We investigate the impact of the input representation on classification performance, showing that side-chain information may not be necessary for fine-grained structure predictions. Finally, we confirm that high resolution, low-resolution and NMR-determined structures inhabit a common feature space, and thus provide a theoretical foundation for boosting with single-image super-resolution.

Keywords: transfer learning, protein distance maps, protein structure classification, neural networks

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Authors: Rashida Suleiman, Asamoah Jnr. Boakye, Suleiman Ahmed Ibn Ahmed

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In recent years, there has been an enormous success in discoveries of scientific knowledge in medicine coupled with the advancement of technology. Despite all these successes, diagnoses and treatment of diseases have become complex. MYCIN is a groundbreaking illustration of a clinical decision support system (CDSS), which was developed to assist physicians in the diagnosis and treatment of bacterial infections by providing suggestions for antibiotic regimens. MYCIN was one of the earliest expert systems to demonstrate how CDSSs may assist human decision-making in complicated areas. Relevant databases were searched using google scholar, PubMed and general Google search, which were peculiar to clinical decision support systems. The articles were then screened for a comprehensive overview of the functionality, consultative style and statistical usage of MYCIN, a clinical decision support system. Inferences drawn from the articles showed some usage of MYCIN for problem-based learning among clinicians and students in some countries. Furthermore, the data demonstrated that MYCIN had completed clinical testing at Stanford University Hospital following years of research. The system (MYCIN) was shown to be extremely accurate and effective in diagnosing and treating bacterial infections, and it demonstrated how CDSSs might enhance clinical decision-making in difficult circumstances. Despite the challenges MYCIN presents, the benefits of its usage to clinicians, students and software developers are enormous.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, MYCIN, diagnosis, bacterial infections, support systems

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Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Ruan S., Digonnet H., Antonioli D.

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Introduction: Deep Learning (DL) is a very powerful tool for analyzing image data. But for tabular data, it cannot compete with machine learning methods like XGBoost. The research question becomes: can tabular data be transformed into images that can be analyzed by simple CNNs (Convolutional Neuron Networks)? Will DL be the absolute tool for data classification? All current solutions consist in repositioning the variables in a 2x2 matrix using their correlation proximity. In doing so, it obtains an image whose pixels are the variables. We implement a technology, DeepNIC, that offers the possibility of obtaining an image for each variable, which can be analyzed by simple CNNs. Material and method: The 'ROP' (Regression OPtimized) model is a binary and atypical decision tree whose nodes are managed by a new artificial neuron, the Neurop. By positioning an artificial neuron in each node of the decision trees, it is possible to make an adjustment on a theoretically infinite number of variables at each node. From this new decision tree whose nodes are artificial neurons, we created the concept of a 'Random Forest of Perfect Trees' (RFPT), which disobeys Breiman's concepts by assembling very large numbers of small trees with no classification errors. From the results of the RFPT, we developed a family of 10 statistical information criteria, Nguyen Information Criterion (NICs), which evaluates in 3 dimensions the predictive quality of a variable: Performance, Complexity and Multiplicity of solution. A NIC is a probability that can be transformed into a grey level. The value of a NIC depends essentially on 2 super parameters used in Neurops. By varying these 2 super parameters, we obtain a 2x2 matrix of probabilities for each NIC. We can combine these 10 NICs with the functions AND, OR, and XOR. The total number of combinations is greater than 100,000. In total, we obtain for each variable an image of at least 1166x1167 pixels. The intensity of the pixels is proportional to the probability of the associated NIC. The color depends on the associated NIC. This image actually contains considerable information about the ability of the variable to make the prediction of Y, depending on the presence or absence of other variables. A basic CNNs model was trained for supervised classification. Results: The first results are impressive. Using the GSE22513 public data (Omic data set of markers of Taxane Sensitivity in Breast Cancer), DEEPNic outperformed other statistical methods, including XGBoost. We still need to generalize the comparison on several databases. Conclusion: The ability to transform any tabular variable into an image offers the possibility of merging image and tabular information in the same format. This opens up great perspectives in the analysis of metadata.

Keywords: tabular data, CNNs, NICs, DeepNICs, random forest of perfect trees, classification

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Authors: Ashwini Gowda K. S, Archana M. R, Anjaneyappa V

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This paper presents pavement maintenance and management system (PMMS) to obtain optimum pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and maintenance scheduling for a network using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA). Optimal pavement maintenance & rehabilitation strategy is to maximize the pavement condition index of the road section in a network with minimum maintenance and rehabilitation cost during the planning period. In this paper, NSGA-II is applied to perform maintenance optimization; this maintenance approach was expected to preserve and improve the existing condition of the highway network in a cost-effective way. The proposed PMMS is applied to a network that assessed pavement based on the pavement condition index (PCI). The minimum and maximum maintenance cost for a planning period of 20 years obtained from the non-dominated solution was found to be 5.190x10¹⁰ ₹ and 4.81x10¹⁰ ₹, respectively.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, maintenance and rehabilitation, optimization technique, pavement condition index

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Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

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Authors: M. Macchiaroli, V. Pellecchia, L. Dolores

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Within any European and world model of management of the integrated water service (in Italy only since 2012 is regulated by a national Authority, that is ARERA), a significant part is covered by the development of assets in terms of hydraulic networks and wastewater collection networks, including all their relative building works. The process of selecting the investments to be made starts from the preventive analysis of critical issues (water losses, unserved areas, low service standards, etc.) who occur in the managed territory of the Operator. Through the Program of Interventions (Provision by ARERA n. 580/2019/R/idr), the Operator provides to program the projects that can meet the emerged needs to determine the improvement of the water service levels. This phase (analyzed and solved by the author with a work published in 2019) involves the use of evaluation techniques (cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria, and multi-objective techniques, neural networks, etc.) useful in selecting the most appropriate design answers to the different criticalities. However, at this point, the problem of establishing the time priorities between the various works deemed necessary remains open. That is, it is necessary to hierarchize the investments. In this decision-making moment, the interests of the private Operator are often opposed, which favors investments capable of generating high profitability, compared to those of the public controller (ARERA), which favors investments in greater social impact. In support of the concertation between these two actors, the protocol set out in the research has been developed, based on the AHP and capable of borrowing from the programmatic documents an orientation path for the settlement of the conflict. The protocol is applied to a case study of the Campania Region in Italy and has been professionally applied in the shared decision process between the manager and the local Authority.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision making, economic evaluation of projects, integrated water service

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Authors: I. A. Farhat

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The dynamic economic dispatch (DED) problem is one of the complex, constrained optimization problems that have nonlinear, con-convex and non-smooth objective functions. The purpose of the DED is to determine the optimal economic operation of the committed units while meeting the load demand. Associated to this constrained problem there exist highly nonlinear and non-convex practical constraints to be satisfied. Therefore, classical and derivative-based methods are likely not to converge to an optimal or near optimal solution to such a dynamic and large-scale problem. In this paper, an Artificial Immune System technique (AIS) is implemented and applied to solve the DED problem considering the transmission power losses and the valve-point effects in addition to the other operational constraints. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, two case studies are considered. The results obtained using the AIS are compared to those obtained by other methods reported in the literature and found better.

Keywords: artificial immune system, dynamic economic dispatch, optimal economic operation, large-scale problem

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) for countries with different disasters is very important. In the world different disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters occurs and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters arisen at the same time, this means to handle multi-risk situations. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs deal with one (in the case of an earthquake-tsunami combination with two) disaster and often with one particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better realtime response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture, and well-defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: decision support system, disaster management system, multi-risk, multiagent system

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Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

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This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou, Stefanos Katsavounis, Ria Kalfakakou

Abstract:

In an urban area the determination of transportation routes should be planned so as to minimize the provoked pollution taking into account the cost of such routes. In the sequel these routes are cited as pollution routes. The transportation network is expressed by a weighted graph G= (V, E, D, P) where every vertex represents a location to be served and E contains unordered pairs (edges) of elements in V that indicate a simple road. The distances/cost and a weight that depict the provoked air pollution by a vehicle transition at every road are assigned to each road as well. These are the items of set D and P respectively. Furthermore the investigated pollution routes must not exceed predefined corresponding values concerning the route cost and the route pollution level during the vehicle transition. In this paper we present an algorithm that generates such routes in order that the decision maker selects the most appropriate one.

Keywords: bi-criteria, pollution, shortest paths, computation

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Authors: Mohammad Rahmani Rezaiyeh, Mojtaba Rahmani Rezaiyeh, Mehrdad Rahmani Rezaiyeh

Abstract:

Smart speed bump is a new invention and I am invented it. Smart speed bump is a system that can change the position of speed bumps either active or passive in necessary situations. The basic system of smart speed bumps is based on a robotic system which includes mechanic, electronic and artificial intelligence. The smart speed bump is capable of smart decision making and can change its position by anticipating the peak of terrific hours. It can be noted to the advantages of this system such as preventing the waste of petrol while crossing speed bumps, traffic management, accelerating, flowing and securing traffic, reducing accidents and judicial records.

Keywords: invention, smart, robotic system, speed bump, traffic, management

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Authors: Justin Woulfe

Abstract:

Siloed logistics and supply chain management systems throughout the Department of Defense (DOD) has led to disparate approaches to modeling and simulation (M&S), a lack of understanding of how one system impacts the whole, and issues with “optimal” solutions that are good for one organization but have dramatic negative impacts on another. Many different systems have evolved to try to understand and account for uncertainty and try to reduce the consequences of the unknown. As the DoD undertakes expansive digital transformation initiatives, there is an opportunity to fuse and leverage traditionally disparate data into a centrally hosted source of truth. With a streamlined process incorporating machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), advanced M&S will enable informed decisions guiding program success via optimized operational readiness and improved mission success. One of the current challenges is to leverage the terabytes of data generated by monitored systems to provide actionable information for all levels of users. The implementation of a cloud-based application analyzing data transactions, learning and predicting future states from current and past states in real-time, and communicating those anticipated states is an appropriate solution for the purposes of reduced latency and improved confidence in decisions. Decisions made from an ML and AI application combined with advanced optimization algorithms will improve the mission success and performance of systems, which will improve the overall cost and effectiveness of any program. The Systecon team constructs and employs model-based simulations, cutting across traditional silos of data, aggregating maintenance, and supply data, incorporating sensor information, and applying optimization and simulation methods to an as-maintained digital twin with the ability to aggregate results across a system’s lifecycle and across logical and operational groupings of systems. This coupling of data throughout the enterprise enables tactical, operational, and strategic decision support, detachable and deployable logistics services, and configuration-based automated distribution of digital technical and product data to enhance supply and logistics operations. As a complete solution, this approach significantly reduces program risk by allowing flexible configuration of data, data relationships, business process workflows, and early test and evaluation, especially budget trade-off analyses. A true capability to tie resources (dollars) to weapon system readiness in alignment with the real-world scenarios a warfighter may experience has been an objective yet to be realized to date. By developing and solidifying an organic capability to directly relate dollars to readiness and to inform the digital twin, the decision-maker is now empowered through valuable insight and traceability. This type of educated decision-making provides an advantage over the adversaries who struggle with maintaining system readiness at an affordable cost. The M&S capability developed allows program managers to independently evaluate system design and support decisions by quantifying their impact on operational availability and operations and support cost resulting in the ability to simultaneously optimize readiness and cost. This will allow the stakeholders to make data-driven decisions when trading cost and readiness throughout the life of the program. Finally, sponsors are available to validate product deliverables with efficiency and much higher accuracy than in previous years.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, digital transformation, machine learning, predictive analytics

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Authors: Yang Yang, Dan Liu

Abstract:

Anomaly detection models for network flow based on machine learning have poor detection performance under extremely unbalanced training data conditions and also have slow detection speed and large resource consumption when deploying on network edge devices. Embedding multi-teacher knowledge distillation (mKD) in anomaly detection can transfer knowledge from multiple teacher models to a single model. Inspired by this, we proposed a state-of-the-art model, mKDNAD, to improve detection performance. mKDNAD mine and integrate the knowledge of one-dimensional sequence and two-dimensional image implicit in network flow to improve the detection accuracy of small sample classes. The multi-teacher knowledge distillation method guides the train of the student model, thus speeding up the model's detection speed and reducing the number of model parameters. Experiments in the CICIDS2017 dataset verify the improvements of our method in the detection speed and the detection accuracy in dealing with the small sample classes.

Keywords: network flow anomaly detection (NAD), multi-teacher knowledge distillation, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Yossiri Ariyakul, Piyakiat Insom, Poonyawat Sangiamkulthavorn, Takamichi Nakamoto

Abstract:

In this paper, the method of optimization algorithm for sensor network comprised of movable sensor nodes which can be used for odor source localization was proposed. A sensor node is composed of an odor sensor, an anemometer, and a wireless communication module. The odor intensity measured from the sensor nodes are sent to the processor to perform the localization based on optimization algorithm by which the odor source localization map is obtained as a result. The map can represent the exact position of the odor source or show the direction toward it remotely. The proposed method was experimentally validated by creating the odor source localization map using three, four, and five sensor nodes in which the accuracy to predict the position of the odor source can be observed.

Keywords: odor sensor, odor source localization, optimization, sensor network

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Authors: Haodong Huang, Zida Zhao, Shilong Sun, Chiyao Li, Wenfu Xu

Abstract:

The control methods for legged robots based on deep reinforcement learning have seen widespread application; however, the inherent black-box nature of neural networks presents challenges in understanding the decision-making motives of the robots. To address this issue, we propose a fully interpretable deep reinforcement learning training method to elucidate the underlying principles of legged robot motion. We incorporate the dynamics of legged robots into the policy, where observations serve as inputs and actions as outputs of the dynamics model. By embedding the dynamics equations within the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) computation process and making the parameters trainable, we enhance interpretability. Additionally, Bayesian optimization is introduced to train these parameters. We validate the proposed fully interpretable motion control algorithm on a legged robot, opening new research avenues for motion control and learning algorithms for legged robots within the deep learning framework.

Keywords: deep reinforcement learning, interpretation, motion control, legged robots

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