Search results for: time series prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21470

Search results for: time series prediction

19850 High Accuracy Analytic Approximation for Special Functions Applied to Bessel Functions J₀(x) and Its Zeros

Authors: Fernando Maass, Pablo Martin, Jorge Olivares

Abstract:

The Bessel function J₀(x) is very important in Electrodynamics and Physics, as well as its zeros. In this work, a method to obtain high accuracy approximation is presented through an application to that function. In most of the applications of this function, the values of the zeros are very important. In this work, analytic approximations for this function have been obtained valid for all positive values of the variable x, which have high accuracy for the function as well as for the zeros. The approximation is determined by the simultaneous used of the power series and asymptotic expansion. The structure of the approximation is a combination of two rational functions with elementary functions as trigonometric and fractional powers. Here us in Pade method, rational functions are used, but now there combined with elementary functions us fractional powers hyperbolic or trigonometric functions, and others. The reason of this is that now power series of the exact function are used, but together with the asymptotic expansion, which usually includes fractional powers trigonometric functions and other type of elementary functions. The approximation must be a bridge between both expansions, and this can not be accomplished using only with rational functions. In the simplest approximation using 4 parameters the maximum absolute error is less than 0.006 at x ∼ 4.9. In this case also the maximum relative error for the zeros is less than 0.003 which is for the second zero, but that value decreases rapidly for the other zeros. The same kind of behaviour happens for the relative error of the maximum and minimum of the functions. Approximations with higher accuracy and more parameters will be also shown. All the approximations are valid for any positive value of x, and they can be calculated easily.

Keywords: analytic approximations, asymptotic approximations, Bessel functions, quasirational approximations

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19849 Predictive Semi-Empirical NOx Model for Diesel Engine

Authors: Saurabh Sharma, Yong Sun, Bruce Vernham

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of NOx emission is a continuous challenge in the field of diesel engine-out emission modeling. Performing experiments for each conditions and scenario cost significant amount of money and man hours, therefore model-based development strategy has been implemented in order to solve that issue. NOx formation is highly dependent on the burn gas temperature and the O2 concentration inside the cylinder. The current empirical models are developed by calibrating the parameters representing the engine operating conditions with respect to the measured NOx. This makes the prediction of purely empirical models limited to the region where it has been calibrated. An alternative solution to that is presented in this paper, which focus on the utilization of in-cylinder combustion parameters to form a predictive semi-empirical NOx model. The result of this work is shown by developing a fast and predictive NOx model by using the physical parameters and empirical correlation. The model is developed based on the steady state data collected at entire operating region of the engine and the predictive combustion model, which is developed in Gamma Technology (GT)-Power by using Direct Injected (DI)-Pulse combustion object. In this approach, temperature in both burned and unburnt zone is considered during the combustion period i.e. from Intake Valve Closing (IVC) to Exhaust Valve Opening (EVO). Also, the oxygen concentration consumed in burnt zone and trapped fuel mass is also considered while developing the reported model.  Several statistical methods are used to construct the model, including individual machine learning methods and ensemble machine learning methods. A detailed validation of the model on multiple diesel engines is reported in this work. Substantial numbers of cases are tested for different engine configurations over a large span of speed and load points. Different sweeps of operating conditions such as Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), injection timing and Variable Valve Timing (VVT) are also considered for the validation. Model shows a very good predictability and robustness at both sea level and altitude condition with different ambient conditions. The various advantages such as high accuracy and robustness at different operating conditions, low computational time and lower number of data points requires for the calibration establishes the platform where the model-based approach can be used for the engine calibration and development process. Moreover, the focus of this work is towards establishing a framework for the future model development for other various targets such as soot, Combustion Noise Level (CNL), NO2/NOx ratio etc.

Keywords: diesel engine, machine learning, NOₓ emission, semi-empirical

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19848 Comparison of Mean Monthly Soil Temperature at (5 and 30 cm) Depths at Compton Experimental Site, West Midlands (UK), between 1976-2008

Authors: Aminu Mansur

Abstract:

A comparison of soil temperature at (5 and 30 cm) depths at a research site over the period (1976-2008) was analyzed. Based on the statistical analysis of the database of (12,045) days of individual soil temperature measurements in sandy-loam of the (salwick series) soils, the mean soil temperature revealed a statistically significant increase of about -1.1 to 10.9°C at 5 cm depth in 1976 compared to 2008. Similarly, soil temperature at 30 cm depth increased by -0.1 to 2.1°C in 2008 compared to 1976. Although, rapid increase in soil temperature at all depths was observed during that period, but a thorough assessment of these conditions suggested that the soil temperature at 5 cm depth are progressively increasing over time. A typical example of those increases in soil temperature was provided for agriculture where Miscanthus (elephant) plant that grows within the study area is adversely affected by the mean soil temperature increase. The study concluded that these observations contribute to the growing mass of evidence of global warming and knowledge on secular trends. Therefore, there was statistically significant increase in soil temperature at Compton Experimental Site between 1976-2008.

Keywords: soil temperature, warming trend, environment science, climate and atmospheric sciences

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19847 A Series of Teaching Modules to Prepare International Students for Real-World China

Authors: Jui-Chien Wang

Abstract:

Because of China’s continued economic growth and dominance, increasingly many students of Chinese from western countries are interested in pursuing careers related to China. Unless we do more to teach them about contemporary Chinese society and Chinese cultural codes, however, few will be able to do so successfully. Most traditional language textbooks treat these topics only cursorily, and, because of the rapid pace of China’s social and economic development, what they do cover is frequently outdated and insufficient. However, understanding contemporary Chinese society and Chinese cultural codes is essential to successfully negotiating real-world China. The current paper details one of the main ways in which the presenter has dealt with this educational lacuna: the development and implementation of a series of teaching modules for advanced Chinese language classes. Each module explores a particular area, provides resources, and raises questions to engage students in strengthening their language and cultural competencies. The teaching modules address four main areas: (1) Chinese behavioral culture; (2) critical issues in contemporary China; (3) current events in China; and (4) great social transformations in contemporary China. The presenter will also discuss lessons learned and insights gained during the development and implementation process as well as the benefits of using these modules. In addition, the presenter will offer suggestions for the application of these modules, so that other language teachers will be able to make better use of them in their own classrooms.

Keywords: behavioral culture, contemporary Chinese society, cultural code, teaching module

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19846 Performance Enhancement of Hybrid Racing Car by Design Optimization

Authors: Tarang Varmora, Krupa Shah, Karan Patel

Abstract:

Environmental pollution and shortage of conventional fuel are the main concerns in the transportation sector. Most of the vehicles use an internal combustion engine (ICE), powered by gasoline fuels. This results into emission of toxic gases. Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) powered by electric machine and ICE is capable of reducing emission of toxic gases and fuel consumption. However to build HEV, it is required to accommodate motor and batteries in the vehicle along with engine and fuel tank. Thus, overall weight of the vehicle increases. To improve the fuel economy and acceleration, the weight of the HEV can be minimized. In this paper, the design methodology to reduce the weight of the hybrid racing car is proposed. To this end, the chassis design is optimized. Further, attempt is made to obtain the maximum strength with minimum material weight. The best configuration out of the three main configurations such as series, parallel and the dual-mode (series-parallel) is chosen. Moreover, the most suitable type of motor, battery, braking system, steering system and suspension system are identified. The racing car is designed and analyzed in the simulating software. The safety of the vehicle is assured by performing static and dynamic analysis on the chassis frame. From the results, it is observed that, the weight of the racing car is reduced by 11 % without compromising on safety and cost. It is believed that the proposed design and specifications can be implemented practically for manufacturing hybrid racing car.

Keywords: design optimization, hybrid racing car, simulation, vehicle, weight reduction

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19845 Utilizing Artificial Intelligence to Predict Post Operative Atrial Fibrillation in Non-Cardiac Transplant

Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

Abstract:

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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19844 Predictive Pathogen Biology: Genome-Based Prediction of Pathogenic Potential and Countermeasures Targets

Authors: Debjit Ray

Abstract:

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and recombination leads to the emergence of bacterial antibiotic resistance and pathogenic traits. HGT events can be identified by comparing a large number of fully sequenced genomes across a species or genus, define the phylogenetic range of HGT, and find potential sources of new resistance genes. In-depth comparative phylogenomics can also identify subtle genome or plasmid structural changes or mutations associated with phenotypic changes. Comparative phylogenomics requires that accurately sequenced, complete and properly annotated genomes of the organism. Assembling closed genomes requires additional mate-pair reads or “long read” sequencing data to accompany short-read paired-end data. To bring down the cost and time required of producing assembled genomes and annotating genome features that inform drug resistance and pathogenicity, we are analyzing the performance for genome assembly of data from the Illumina NextSeq, which has faster throughput than the Illumina HiSeq (~1-2 days versus ~1 week), and shorter reads (150bp paired-end versus 300bp paired end) but higher capacity (150-400M reads per run versus ~5-15M) compared to the Illumina MiSeq. Bioinformatics improvements are also needed to make rapid, routine production of complete genomes a reality. Modern assemblers such as SPAdes 3.6.0 running on a standard Linux blade are capable in a few hours of converting mixes of reads from different library preps into high-quality assemblies with only a few gaps. Remaining breaks in scaffolds are generally due to repeats (e.g., rRNA genes) are addressed by our software for gap closure techniques, that avoid custom PCR or targeted sequencing. Our goal is to improve the understanding of emergence of pathogenesis using sequencing, comparative genomics, and machine learning analysis of ~1000 pathogen genomes. Machine learning algorithms will be used to digest the diverse features (change in virulence genes, recombination, horizontal gene transfer, patient diagnostics). Temporal data and evolutionary models can thus determine whether the origin of a particular isolate is likely to have been from the environment (could it have evolved from previous isolates). It can be useful for comparing differences in virulence along or across the tree. More intriguing, it can test whether there is a direction to virulence strength. This would open new avenues in the prediction of uncharacterized clinical bugs and multidrug resistance evolution and pathogen emergence.

Keywords: genomics, pathogens, genome assembly, superbugs

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19843 The Application of Image Analyzer to Study the Effects of Pericarp in the Imbibition Process of Melia dubia Seeds

Authors: Satya Srii, V., Nethra, N.

Abstract:

An image analyzer system is described to study the process of imbibition in Melia dubia seeds. The experimental system consisted of control C (seeds with intact pericarp) with two treatments, namely T1 (seeds with pericarp punctured) and T2 (naked seeds without pericarp). The measurement software in the image analyzer can determine the area and perimeter as descriptors of changes in seed size during swelling resulting from imbibition. Using the area and perimeter parameter, the imbibition process in C, T1, and T2 was described by a series of curves similar to the triphasic pattern of water uptake, with the extent and rate depending upon the treatment. Naked seeds without pericarp (T2) took lesser time to reach phase III during imbition followed by seeds with pericarp punctured (T1) while the seeds with intact pericarp (C) were the slowest to attain phase III. This shows the effect of pericarp in acting as a potential inhibitor to imbibition inducing a large delay in germination. The sensitivity and feasibility of the method to investigate individual seeds within a population imply that the image analyzer has high potential in seed biology studies.

Keywords: germination, imbibition, image analyzer, Melia dubia, pericarp

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19842 Walkability and Urban Social Identity

Authors: Reihaneh Rafiemanzelat

Abstract:

One of the most recent fields of investigation in urban issues focuses on the walkability in urban spaces. The paper aims to establish the theoretical relationship between the people's link with definite urban public spaces and the social identity processes derived from the relation with these places. The theoretical aspects which are examined for this purpose are: the concept of walkability and its developments and the social identity theories derived from walkable spaces. In fact, the paper presents the main results obtained from an empirical investigation which concern to the genesis of urban social identity in particular street as one of the main elements of public spaces in cities. İsmet İnönü Blvd which known as Salamis Street in Famagusta, North Cyprus is one of the main street in city whit high level of physical and social activities all the time. The urban social identity of users was analyzed, focusing on three main factors: walkability of space, social identification, and image of the space. These three factors were analyzed in relation to a series of items in the initial questionnaire, evaluation of existing natural resources, and environmental attitudes.

Keywords: walkability, urban public space, pedestrian, social activity, social identity

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19841 A Numerical Studies for Improving the Performance of Vertical Axis Wind Turbine by a Wind Power Tower

Authors: Soo-Yong Cho, Chong-Hyun Cho, Chae-Whan Rim, Sang-Kyu Choi, Jin-Gyun Kim, Ju-Seok Nam

Abstract:

Recently, vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT) have been widely used to produce electricity even in urban. They have several merits such as low sound noise, easy installation of the generator and simple structure without yaw-control mechanism and so on. However, their blades are operated under the influence of the trailing vortices generated by the preceding blades. This phenomenon deteriorates its output power and makes difficulty predicting correctly its performance. In order to improve the performance of VAWT, wind power towers can be applied. Usually, the wind power tower can be constructed as a multi-story building to increase the frontal area of the wind stream. Hence, multiple sets of the VAWT can be installed within the wind power tower, and they can be operated at high elevation. Many different types of wind power tower can be used in the field. In this study, a wind power tower with circular column shape was applied, and the VAWT was installed at the center of the wind power tower. Seven guide walls were used as a strut between the floors of the wind power tower. These guide walls were utilized not only to increase the wind velocity within the wind power tower but also to adjust the wind direction for making a better working condition on the VAWT. Hence, some important design variables, such as the distance between the wind turbine and the guide wall, the outer diameter of the wind power tower, the direction of the guide wall against the wind direction, should be considered to enhance the output power on the VAWT. A numerical analysis was conducted to find the optimum dimension on design variables by using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) among many prediction methods. The CFD could be an accurate prediction method compared with the stream-tube methods. In order to obtain the accurate results in the CFD, it needs the transient analysis and the full three-dimensional (3-D) computation. However, this full 3-D CFD could be hard to be a practical tool because it requires huge computation time. Therefore, the reduced computational domain is applied as a practical method. In this study, the computations were conducted in the reduced computational domain and they were compared with the experimental results in the literature. It was examined the mechanism of the difference between the experimental results and the computational results. The computed results showed this computational method could be an effective method in the design methodology using the optimization algorithm. After validation of the numerical method, the CFD on the wind power tower was conducted with the important design variables affecting the performance of VAWT. The results showed that the output power of the VAWT obtained using the wind power tower was increased compared to them obtained without the wind power tower. In addition, they showed that the increased output power on the wind turbine depended greatly on the dimension of the guide wall.

Keywords: CFD, performance, VAWT, wind power tower

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19840 An Equivalent Circuit Model Approach for Battery Pack Simulation in a Hybrid Electric Vehicle System Powertrain

Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka

Abstract:

The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.

Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model

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19839 Tabu Search Algorithm for Ship Routing and Scheduling Problem with Time Window

Authors: Khaled Moh. Alhamad

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This paper describes a tabu search heuristic for a ship routing and scheduling problem (SRSP). The method was developed to address the problem of loading cargos for many customers using heterogeneous vessels. Constraints relate to delivery time windows imposed by customers, the time horizon by which all deliveries must be made and vessel capacities. The results of a computational investigation are presented. Solution quality and execution time are explored with respect to problem size and parameters controlling the tabu search such as tenure and neighbourhood size.

Keywords: heuristic, scheduling, tabu search, transportation

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19838 Electrical Decomposition of Time Series of Power Consumption

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

Abstract:

Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: electrical disaggregation, DTW, general appliance modeling, event detection

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19837 Application of Bayesian Model Averaging and Geostatistical Output Perturbation to Generate Calibrated Ensemble Weather Forecast

Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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19836 The Application of Bayesian Heuristic for Scheduling in Real-Time Private Clouds

Authors: Sahar Sohrabi

Abstract:

The emergence of Cloud data centers has revolutionized the IT industry. Private Clouds in specific provide Cloud services for certain group of customers/businesses. In a real-time private Cloud each task that is given to the system has a deadline that desirably should not be violated. Scheduling tasks in a real-time private CLoud determine the way available resources in the system are shared among incoming tasks. The aim of the scheduling policy is to optimize the system outcome which for a real-time private Cloud can include: energy consumption, deadline violation, execution time and the number of host switches. Different scheduling policies can be used for scheduling. Each lead to a sub-optimal outcome in a certain settings of the system. A Bayesian Scheduling strategy is proposed for scheduling to further improve the system outcome. The Bayesian strategy showed to outperform all selected policies. It also has the flexibility in dealing with complex pattern of incoming task and has the ability to adapt.

Keywords: cloud computing, scheduling, real-time private cloud, bayesian

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19835 Bright Light Effects on the Concentration and Diffuse Attention Reaction Time, Tension, Angry, Fatigue and Alertness among Shift Workers

Authors: Mohammad Imani, JabraeilNasl Seraji, Abolfazl Zakerian

Abstract:

Background: Reaction time is the amount of time it takes to respond to a stimulus. In fact The time that passes between the introduction of a stimulus and the reaction by the subject to that stimulus. The aim of this interventional study is evaluation of bright light effects on concentration and diffuse attention reaction time, tension, angry, fatigue and alertness among shift workers. There are several incentives that can reduce the reaction time or added. Bright light as one of the environmental factors can reduce reaction time. Material &Method: This cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in 1391, in 88 subjects (44 Fixed morning worker and 44 shift worker ) In a 24 h time (13-16-19-22-1-4-7-10) in an ordinary light situation after a randomly selected sample size calculation, concentration and diffuse attention test (reaction time) has been done. After intervention and using of bright light (4500lux), again reaction time test was done. After analyzing by ElISA method obtained data were analyzed by statistical software SPSS 19 and using T-test and ANOVA statistical analysis. Results: Between average of reaction time tests in ordinary light exposed to fixed morning workers and bright light exposed to shift worker, with 95% CI, (P>%5) there was no significant relationship. After the intervention and the use of bright light (4500 lux),between average of concentration and diffused attention reaction time tests in ordinary light exposure on the fixed morning workers and bright light exposure shift workers with 95% CI, (P<5%) there was significant relationship. Conclusion: In sometimes of 24 h during ordinary light exposure concentration and diffused attention reaction time has changed in shift workers. After intervention, during bright light (4500lux) exposure as a light shower, focused and diffuse attention reaction time, tension ,angry and fatigue decreased.

Keywords: bright light, reaction time, tension, angry, fatigue, alertness

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19834 A Macroeconomic Analysis of Defense Industry: Comparisons, Trends and Improvements in Brazil and in the World

Authors: J. Fajardo, J. Guerra, E. Gonzales

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This paper will outline a study of Brazil's industrial base of defense (IDB), through a bibliographic research method, combined with an analysis of macroeconomic data from several available public data platforms. This paper begins with a brief study about Brazilian national industry, including analyzes of productivity, income, outcome and jobs. Next, the research presents a study on the defense industry in Brazil, presenting the main national companies that operate in the aeronautical, army and naval branches. After knowing the main points of the Brazilian defense industry, data on the productivity of the defense industry of the main countries and competing companies of the Brazilian industry were analyzed, in order to summarize big cases in Brazil with a comparative analysis. Concerned the methodology, were used bibliographic research and the exploration of historical data series, in order to analyze information, to get trends and to make comparisons along the time. The research is finished with the main trends for the development of the Brazilian defense industry, comparing the current situation with the point of view of several countries.

Keywords: economics of defence, industry, trends, market

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19833 Design Improvement of Worm Gearing for Better Energy Utilization

Authors: Ahmed Elkholy

Abstract:

Most power transmission cases use gearing in general, and worm gearing, in particular for energy utilization. Therefore, designing gears for minimum weight and maximum power transmission is the main target of this study. In this regard, a new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using a well-established criteria. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire worm gear set loading and stressing was determined. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analytical accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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19832 Generating Real-Time Visual Summaries from Located Sensor-Based Data with Chorems

Authors: Z. Bouattou, R. Laurini, H. Belbachir

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This paper describes a new approach for the automatic generation of the visual summaries dealing with cartographic visualization methods and sensors real time data modeling. Hence, the concept of chorems seems an interesting candidate to visualize real time geographic database summaries. Chorems have been defined by Roger Brunet (1980) as schematized visual representations of territories. However, the time information is not yet handled in existing chorematic map approaches, issue has been discussed in this paper. Our approach is based on spatial analysis by interpolating the values recorded at the same time, by sensors available, so we have a number of distributed observations on study areas and used spatial interpolation methods to find the concentration fields, from these fields and by using some spatial data mining procedures on the fly, it is possible to extract important patterns as geographic rules. Then, those patterns are visualized as chorems.

Keywords: geovisualization, spatial analytics, real-time, geographic data streams, sensors, chorems

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19831 The Study on Corpse Floating Time in Shanghai Region of China

Authors: Hang Meng, Wen-Bin Liu, Bi Xiao, Kai-Jun Ma, Jian-Hui Xie, Geng Fei, Tian-Ye Zhang, Lu-Yi Xu, Dong-Chuan Zhang

Abstract:

The victims in water are often found in the coastal region, along river region or the region with lakes. In China, the examination for the bodies of victims in the water is conducted by forensic doctors working in the public security bureau. Because the enter water time for most of the victims are not clear, and often lack of monitor images and other information, so to find out the corpse enter water time for victims is very difficult. After the corpse of the victim enters the water, it sinks first, then corruption gas produces, which can make the density of the corpse to be less than water, and thus rise again. So the factor that determines the corpse floating time is temperature. On the basis of the temperature data obtained in Shanghai region of China (Shanghai is a north subtropical marine monsoon climate, with an average annual temperature of about 17.1℃. The hottest month is July, the average monthly temperature is 28.6℃, and the coldest month is January, the average monthly temperature is 4.8℃). This study selected about 100 cases with definite corpse enter water time and corpse floating time, analyzed the cases and obtained the empirical law of the corpse floating time. For example, in the Shanghai region, on June 15th and October 15th, the corpse floating time is about 1.5 days. In early December, the bodies who entered the water will go up around January 1st of the following year, and the bodies who enter water in late December will float in March of next year. The results of this study can be used to roughly estimate the water enter time of the victims in Shanghai. Forensic doctors around the world can also draw on the results of this study to infer the time when the corpses of the victims in the water go up.

Keywords: corpse enter water time, corpse floating time, drowning, forensic pathology, victims in the water

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19830 Estimation of the Parameters of Muskingum Methods for the Prediction of the Flood Depth in the Moudjar River Catchment

Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

Abstract:

The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model

Procedia PDF Downloads 280
19829 Basic Calibration and Normalization Techniques for Time Domain Reflectometry Measurements

Authors: Shagufta Tabassum

Abstract:

The study of dielectric properties in a binary mixture of liquids is very useful to understand the liquid structure, molecular interaction, dynamics, and kinematics of the mixture. Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is a powerful tool for studying the cooperation and molecular dynamics of the H-bonded system. In this paper, we discuss the basic calibration and normalization procedure for time-domain reflectometry measurements. Our approach is to explain the different types of error occur during TDR measurements and how these errors can be eliminated or minimized.

Keywords: time domain reflectometry measurement techinque, cable and connector loss, oscilloscope loss, and normalization technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 210
19828 An excessive Screen Time of High School Students in Their Free Time Promotes Our Young People’s Risk of Obesity

Authors: Susana Aldaba Yaben, Marga Echauri Ozcoidi, Rosario Osinaga Cenoz

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It was decided to make a diagnosis with students of Berriozar High School between 12 and 15 years (both included) for their lifestyles in relation to eating habits, BMI (Body Mass Index), physical activity, drugs, interpersonal relationships and screen time. The aim of this survey is identifying needs of this population and depending on the results, we could program socio-educational activities. This action is part of the Community Health Promotion Programme and healthy lifestyles in childhood and youth of Berriozar. The eating habits, a lack of physical activity and an excessive screen time are causes of 26,75% of obese or overweight young people. First of all, many of them have got a diet enriched in saturated fats and sugars. Secondly, most of them do not practise physical exercise daily and finally, their screen time are higher than the recommendation (until 2 hours a day).

Keywords: lifestyle, diet, BMI, physical activity, screen time, education, youth

Procedia PDF Downloads 578
19827 Skin-Dose Mapping for Patients Undergoing Interventional Radiology Procedures: Clinical Experimentations versus a Mathematical Model

Authors: Aya Al Masri, Stefaan Carpentier, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

Abstract:

Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, an accurate calculation of the patient skin-dose mapping is essential. For most machines, the 'Dose Area Product (DAP)' and fluoroscopy time are the only information available for the operator. These two parameters are a very poor indicator of the peak skin dose. We developed a mathematical model that reconstructs the magnitude (delivered dose), shape, and localization of each irradiation field on the patient skin. In case of critical dose exceeding, the system generates warning alerts. We present the results of its comparison with clinical studies. Materials and methods: Two series of comparison of the skin-dose mapping of our mathematical model with clinical studies were performed: 1. At a first time, clinical tests were performed on patient phantoms. Gafchromic films were placed on the table of the IR machine under of PMMA plates (thickness = 20 cm) that simulate the patient. After irradiation, the film darkening is proportional to the radiation dose received by the patient's back and reflects the shape of the X-ray field. After film scanning and analysis, the exact dose value can be obtained at each point of the mapping. Four experimentation were performed, constituting a total of 34 acquisition incidences including all possible exposure configurations. 2. At a second time, clinical trials were launched on real patients during real 'Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)' procedures for a total of 80 cases. Gafchromic films were placed at the back of patients. We performed comparisons on the dose values, as well as the distribution, and the shape of irradiation fields between the skin dose mapping of our mathematical model and Gafchromic films. Results: The comparison between the dose values shows a difference less than 15%. Moreover, our model shows a very good geometric accuracy: all fields have the same shape, size and location (uncertainty < 5%). Conclusion: This study shows that our model is a reliable tool to warn physicians when a high radiation dose is reached. Thus, deterministic effects can be avoided.

Keywords: clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, mathematical model, patient's skin-dose mapping.

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
19826 Predicting Open Chromatin Regions in Cell-Free DNA Whole Genome Sequencing Data by Correlation Clustering  

Authors: Fahimeh Palizban, Farshad Noravesh, Amir Hossein Saeidian, Mahya Mehrmohamadi

Abstract:

In the recent decade, the emergence of liquid biopsy has significantly improved cancer monitoring and detection. Dying cells, including those originating from tumors, shed their DNA into the blood and contribute to a pool of circulating fragments called cell-free DNA. Accordingly, identifying the tissue origin of these DNA fragments from the plasma can result in more accurate and fast disease diagnosis and precise treatment protocols. Open chromatin regions are important epigenetic features of DNA that reflect cell types of origin. Profiling these features by DNase-seq, ATAC-seq, and histone ChIP-seq provides insights into tissue-specific and disease-specific regulatory mechanisms. There have been several studies in the area of cancer liquid biopsy that integrate distinct genomic and epigenomic features for early cancer detection along with tissue of origin detection. However, multimodal analysis requires several types of experiments to cover the genomic and epigenomic aspects of a single sample, which will lead to a huge amount of cost and time. To overcome these limitations, the idea of predicting OCRs from WGS is of particular importance. In this regard, we proposed a computational approach to target the prediction of open chromatin regions as an important epigenetic feature from cell-free DNA whole genome sequence data. To fulfill this objective, local sequencing depth will be fed to our proposed algorithm and the prediction of the most probable open chromatin regions from whole genome sequencing data can be carried out. Our method integrates the signal processing method with sequencing depth data and includes count normalization, Discrete Fourie Transform conversion, graph construction, graph cut optimization by linear programming, and clustering. To validate the proposed method, we compared the output of the clustering (open chromatin region+, open chromatin region-) with previously validated open chromatin regions related to human blood samples of the ATAC-DB database. The percentage of overlap between predicted open chromatin regions and the experimentally validated regions obtained by ATAC-seq in ATAC-DB is greater than 67%, which indicates meaningful prediction. As it is evident, OCRs are mostly located in the transcription start sites (TSS) of the genes. In this regard, we compared the concordance between the predicted OCRs and the human genes TSS regions obtained from refTSS and it showed proper accordance around 52.04% and ~78% with all and the housekeeping genes, respectively. Accurately detecting open chromatin regions from plasma cell-free DNA-seq data is a very challenging computational problem due to the existence of several confounding factors, such as technical and biological variations. Although this approach is in its infancy, there has already been an attempt to apply it, which leads to a tool named OCRDetector with some restrictions like the need for highly depth cfDNA WGS data, prior information about OCRs distribution, and considering multiple features. However, we implemented a graph signal clustering based on a single depth feature in an unsupervised learning manner that resulted in faster performance and decent accuracy. Overall, we tried to investigate the epigenomic pattern of a cell-free DNA sample from a new computational perspective that can be used along with other tools to investigate genetic and epigenetic aspects of a single whole genome sequencing data for efficient liquid biopsy-related analysis.

Keywords: open chromatin regions, cancer, cell-free DNA, epigenomics, graph signal processing, correlation clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
19825 Cirrhosis Mortality Prediction as Classification using Frequent Subgraph Mining

Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

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In this work, we use machine learning and novel data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
19824 Designing Electronic Kanban in Assembly Line Tailboom at XYZ Corp to Reducing Lead Time

Authors: Nadhifah A. Nugraha, Dida D. Damayanti, Widia Juliani

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Airplanes manufacturing is growing along with the increasing demand from consumers. The helicopter's tail called Tailboom is a product of the helicopter division at XYZ Corp, where the Tailboom assembly line is a pull system. Based on observations of existing conditions that occur at XYZ Corp, production is still unable to meet the demands of consumers; lead time occurs greater than the plan agreed upon by the consumers. In the assembly process, each work station experiences a lack of parts and components needed to assemble components. This happens because of the delay in getting the required part information, and there is no warning about the availability of parts needed, it makes some parts unavailable in assembly warehouse. The lack of parts and components from the previous work station causes the assembly process to stop, and the assembly line also stops at the next station. In its completion, the production time was late and not on the schedule. In resolving these problems, the controlling process is needed, which is controlling the assembly line to get all components and subassembly in the right amount and at the right time. This study applies one of Just In Time tools, namely Kanban and automation, should be added as efficiently and effectively communication line becomes electronic Kanban. The problem can be solved by reducing non-value added time, such as waiting time and idle time. The proposed results of controlling the assembly line of Tailboom result in a smooth assembly line without waiting, reduced lead time, and achieving production time according to the schedule agreed with the consumers.

Keywords: kanban, e-Kanban, lead time, pull system

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
19823 Empirical Decomposition of Time Series of Power Consumption

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

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19822 Subjective Temporal Resources: On the Relationship Between Time Perspective and Chronic Time Pressure to Burnout

Authors: Diamant Irene, Dar Tamar

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Burnout, conceptualized within the framework of stress research, is to a large extent a result of a threat on resources of time or a feeling of time shortage. In reaction to numerous tasks, deadlines, high output, management of different duties encompassing work-home conflicts, many individuals experience ‘time pressure’. Time pressure is characterized as the perception of a lack of available time in relation to the amount of workload. It can be a result of local objective constraints, but it can also be a chronic attribute in coping with life. As such, time pressure is associated in the literature with general stress experience and can therefore be a direct, contributory burnout factor. The present study examines the relation of chronic time pressure – feeling of time shortage and of being rushed, with another central aspect in subjective temporal experience - time perspective. Time perspective is a stable personal disposition, capturing the extent to which people subjectively remember the past, live the present and\or anticipate the future. Based on Hobfoll’s Conservation of Resources Theory, it was hypothesized that individuals with chronic time pressure would experience a permanent threat on their time resources resulting in relatively increased burnout. In addition, it was hypothesized that different time perspective profiles, based on Zimbardo’s typology of five dimensions – Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Hedonistic, Present Fatalistic, and Future, would be related to different magnitudes of chronic time pressure and of burnout. We expected that individuals with ‘Past Negative’ or ‘Present Fatalist’ time perspectives would experience more burnout, with chronic time pressure being a moderator variable. Conversely, individuals with a ‘Present Hedonistic’ - with little concern with the future consequences of actions, would experience less chronic time pressure and less burnout. Another temporal experience angle examined in this study is the difference between the actual distribution of time (as in a typical day) versus desired distribution of time (such as would have been distributed optimally during a day). It was hypothesized that there would be a positive correlation between the gap between these time distributions and chronic time pressure and burnout. Data was collected through an online self-reporting survey distributed on social networks, with 240 participants (aged 21-65) recruited through convenience and snowball sampling methods from various organizational sectors. The results of the present study support the hypotheses and constitute a basis for future debate regarding the elements of burnout in the modern work environment, with an emphasis on subjective temporal experience. Our findings point to the importance of chronic and stable temporal experiences, as time pressure and time perspective, in occupational experience. The findings are also discussed with a view to the development of practical methods of burnout prevention.

Keywords: conservation of resources, burnout, time pressure, time perspective

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
19821 BIM-based Construction Noise Management Approach With a Focus on Inner-City Construction

Authors: Nasim Babazadeh

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Growing demand for a quieter dwelling environment has turned the attention of construction companies to reducing the propagated noise of their project. In inner-city constructions, close distance between the construction site and surrounding buildings lessens the efficiency of passive noise control methods. Dwellers of the nearby areas may file complaints and lawsuits against the construction companies due to the emitted construction noise, thereby leading to the interruption of processes, compensation costs, or even suspension of the project. Therefore, construction noise should be predicted along with the project schedule. The advantage of managing the noise in the pre-construction phase is two-fold. Firstly, changes in the time plan and construction methods can be applied more flexibly. Thus, the costs related to rescheduling can be avoided. Secondly, noise-related legal problems are expected to be reduced. To implement noise mapping methods for the mentioned prediction, the required detailed information (such as the location of the noisy process, duration of the noisy work) can be exported from the 4D BIM model. The results obtained from the noise maps would be used to help the planners to define different work scenarios. The proposed approach has been applied for the foundation and earthwork of a site located in a residential area, and the obtained results are discussed.

Keywords: building information modeling, construction noise management, noise mapping, 4D BIM

Procedia PDF Downloads 189