Search results for: mixed effects models

Authors: Grace Baptie, Jackie Andrade, Alison Bacon, Alyson Norman

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Background: Many women experience their childbirth as traumatic, and 4-6% of mothers present with postnatal posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as a result of their birth. Aims: To measure the relationship between obstetric and subjective experience of childbirth on mothers’ experience of postnatal trauma and identify salient aspects of the birth experience considered traumatic. Methods: Women who had given birth within the last year completed an online mixed-methods survey reporting on their subjective and obstetric birth experience as well as symptoms of postnatal trauma, depression and anxiety. Findings: 29% of mothers experienced their labour as traumatic and 15% met full or partial criteria for PTSD. Feeling supported and in control mediated the relationship between obstetric intervention and postnatal trauma symptoms. Five key themes were identified from the qualitative data regarding aspects of the birth considered traumatic including: obstetric complications; lack of control; concern for baby; psychological trauma and lack of support. Conclusion: Subjective birth experience is a significantly stronger predictor of postnatal trauma than level of medical intervention, the psychological consequences of which can be buffered by an increased level of support and control.

Keywords: birth trauma, perinatal mental health, postnatal PTSD, subjective experience

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Authors: Li Chen

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For an aerofoil or hydrofoil in high Reynolds number flows, broadband noise is generated efficiently as the result of the turbulence convecting over the trailing edge. This noise can be related to the surface pressure fluctuations, which can be predicted by either CFD or empirical models. However, in reality, the aerofoil or hydrofoil often operates at an angle of attack. Under this situation, the flow is subjected to an Adverse-Pressure-Gradient (APG), and as a result, a flow separation may occur. This study is to assess trailing-edge noise models for such flows. In the present work, the trailing-edge noise from a 2D airfoil at 6 degree of angle of attach is investigated. Under this condition, the flow is experiencing a strong APG, and the flow separation occurs. The flow over the airfoil with a chord of 300 mm, equivalent to a Reynold Number 4x10⁵, is simulated using RANS with the SST k-ɛ turbulent model. The predicted surface pressure fluctuations are compared with the published experimental data and empirical models, and show a good agreement with the experimental data. The effect of the APG on the trailing edge noise is discussed, and the associated trailing edge noise is calculated.

Keywords: aero-acoustics, adverse-pressure gradient, computational fluid dynamics, trailing-edge noise

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Authors: Wen-Goang Yang, Li-Wei Liu, Peli-Ling Liu

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The purpose of this study was to explore relations among athletic participant motivation, social support, and training satisfaction. The approach was tested using structural equation modeling, involving 300 Teakwondo Athletics from 2017 National Intercollegiate Athletic Games, using a revised scale for Participant Motivation, Social Support, and Training Satisfaction. Statistical method included descriptive statistics and PLS-SEM. The results of the research as a follow: (1) The athletes ‘participant motivation’ positively effects the ‘social support’. (2) The athletes ‘participant motivation’ positively effects the ‘training satisfaction’. (3) The athletes ‘social support’ positively effects the ‘training satisfaction’.

Keywords: teakwondo, collegiate athlete, PLS-SEM, social support

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Authors: A. C. Bennis, F. Dumas, F. Ardhuin, B. Blanke

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The mechanics of rip currents are complex, involving interactions between waves, currents, water levels and the bathymetry, that present particular challenges for numerical models. Here, the effects of a grid-spacing dependent horizontal mixing on the wave-current interactions are studied. Near the shore, wave rays diverge from channels towards bar crests because of refraction by topography and currents, in a way that depends on the rip current intensity which is itself modulated by the horizontal mixing. At low resolution with the grid-spacing dependent horizontal mixing, the wave motion is the same for both coupling modes because the wave deviation by the currents is weak. In high-resolution case, however, classical results are found with the stabilizing effect of the flow by feedback of waves on currents. Lastly, wave-current interactions and the horizontal mixing strongly affect the intensity of the three-dimensional rip velocity.

Keywords: numerical modeling, wave-current interactions, turbulence modeling, rip currents

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Authors: Jun Hong Lee

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Background: Many dementia patients complain insomnia and depressive mood, and hypnotics and antidepressants are being prescribed. As prevalence of dementia is increasing, insomnia and depressive mood are becoming more important. Objective: We evaluated insomnia and depression in outpatients of dementia center. Patients and Methods/Material and Methods: We reviewed medical records of the patients who visited outpatients clinic of NHIS Ilsan Hospital Dementia Center during 2016. Results: Total 716 patients are included; Subjective Memory Impairment (SMI) : 143 patients (20%), non-amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI): single domain 70 (10%), multiple domain 34 (5%), amnestic MCI: single domain 74 (10%), multiple domain 159 (22%), Early onset Alzheimer´s disease (AD): 9 (1%), AD 121 (17%), Vascular dementia: 62 (9%), Mixed dementia 44 (6%). Hypnotics and antidepressants are prescribed as follows; SMI : hypnotics 14 patients (10%), antidepressants 27 (19%), non-amnestic MCI: single domain hypnotics 9 (13%), antidepressants 12 (17%), multiple domain hypnotics 4 (12%), antidepressants 6 (18%), amnestic MCI: single domain hypnotics 10 (14%), antidepressants 16 (22%), multiple domain hypnotics 22 (14%), antidepressants 24 (15%), Early onset Alzheimer´s disease (AD): hypnotics 1 (11%), antidepressants 2 (22%), AD: hypnotics 10 (8%), antidepressants 36 (30%), Vascular dementia: hypnotics 8 (13%), antidepressants 20 (32%), Mixed dementia: hypnotics 4 (9%), antidepressants 17 (39%). Conclusion: Among the outpatients of Dementia Center, MCI and SMI are majorities, and the number of MCI patients are almost half. Depression is more prevalent in AD, and Vascular dementia than MCI and SMI, and about 22% of patients are being prescribed by antidepressants and 11% by hypnotics.

Keywords: insomnia, depression, dementia, antidepressants, hypnotics

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

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Authors: A. Kahil, A. Nekmouche, N. Khelil, I. Hamadou, M. Hamizi, Ne. Hannachi

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The objective of this work is to study the influence of the nonlinear behavior models of the concrete (concrete_BAEL and concrete_UNI) as well as the confinement brought by the transverse reinforcement on the seismic response of reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame). These models as well as the confinement are integrated in the Cast3m finite element calculation code. The consideration of confinement (TAC, taking into account the confinement) provided by the transverse reinforcement and the non-consideration of confinement (without consideration of containment, WCC) in the presence and absence of a vertical load is studied. The application was made on a reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame) with 3 levels and 2 spans. The results show that on the one hand, the concrete_BAEL model slightly underestimates the resistance of the RC/frame in the plastic field, whereas the concrete_uni model presents the best results compared to the simplified model "concrete_BAEL", on the other hand, for the concrete-uni model, taking into account the confinement has no influence on the behavior of the RC/frame under imposed displacement up to a vertical load of 500 KN.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, nonlinear calculation, behavior laws, fiber model confinement, numerical simulation

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Ahmed Alqaoud

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This paper describes Publish/Subscribe Scientific Workflow Interoperability Framework (PS-SWIF) architecture and its components that collectively provide interoperability between heterogeneous scientific workflow systems. Requirements to achieve interoperability are identified. This paper also provides a detailed investigation and design of models and solutions for system requirements, and considers how workflow interoperability models provided by Workflow Management Coalition (WfMC) can be achieved using the PS-SWIF system.

Keywords: publish/subscribe, scientific workflow, web services, workflow interoperability

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Authors: Luciana Abednego, Cecilia Nugraheni

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There are many approaches proposed for solving Sudoku puzzles. One of them is by modelling the puzzles as block world problems. There have been three model for Sudoku solvers based on this approach. Each model expresses Sudoku solver as a parameterized multi agent systems. In this work, we propose a new model which is an improvement over the existing models. This paper presents the development of a Sudoku solver that implements all the proposed models. Some experiments have been conducted to determine the performance of each model.

Keywords: Sudoku puzzle, Sudoku solver, block world problem, parameterized multi agent systems

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Authors: Wong Yat Cheung Maggie

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Occupational Safety and Health Ordinance (OS&HO) (Chap 509) was enacted in 1997, OHS in HK should be growing and maturing, with a holistic approach to occupational health and safety in the workplace including physical, mental, social and spiritual well-being. The question is “How effective are OHSPs in meeting the current needs of HK health workers?” This study was designed to explore the issue for the first time, to empirically analyse the views of those who work in the system. The study employed a mixed method approach to collect various data from Occupational Health Service Providers (OHSPs), Occupational Health Service Consumers (OHSC): Registered nurses working in the hospital setting. This study was designed in two phases and two stages. Phase I Stage I was a paper survey to collect the data on OHSP. Then Phase I Stage II was a follow-up interview. Phase II Stage I was a paper survey to collect the data on OHSC. Then Phase II Stage II was a follow-up focus group study on OHSC for further clarification of the Phase II and Stage I result. The Phase I result reflects HK OHSPs point of view and their experience in the existing OHS practice in the local hospitals. It reflects various styles of reporting systems, staff profiles background and resource in providing OHS in HK hospitals. However, the basic OHS concern is similar between hospitals. In general, the OHS policies and procedures are available on site even though they may have different foci. The Phase II result is reflecting the HKs OHSCs echoes the OHSP feedback at providing of OHS, OHS concern and related policies and procedure are available on site. However, the most significant feedback from the OHSC at Phase II Stage II shows, nurses experienced various OHS concern most commonly work stress, workplace harassment and back strain without formal or official report to the related parties. The lack of reporting was due to the management handling attitude, stakeholders’ compliance and term of definition still have room to be improved even the related policies and procedures are available on site.

Keywords: occupational health service, registered nurse, Hong Kong hospital, mixed method

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Authors: Idit Miller

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This paper examines the effect of a common organizational identity on intergroup relations of Israeli-Jews and non-Israeli Palestinians medical interns who are employed together within the Israeli hospitals, while asymmetrical relationships and ongoing conflict between the two groups still exist. Using mixed theory, which included the Intergroup contact, Othering, and the Common social identity theories, the study examines the intra-organizational identities dynamic involved within the hospital department and its effects on intergroup relations. In-depth, semi-structured interviews with the Palestinian and Jews physicians were conducted. Findings show three social identity responses are being constructed during the shared employment: Them vs. Us construction, Them vs. Us deconstruction, and an 'Organizational Us' reconstruction. Despite the inequality inherent within the intergroup relations, by holding a universal identity and using a deconstruction pattern, positive emotions are demonstrated by both sides. The adoption of a shared professional super-identity is found as an essential component for fostering and maintaining positive attitudes between the parties. This finding strengthens the significance of a long-term continuous intergroup contact inside the organization and especially between two polarized groups.

Keywords: common social identity theory, intergroup contact theory, inequality, intergroup conflict, othering theory

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Authors: Emel Yildiz, Nurcan Biçer, Fazilet Aksu, Arash Alizadeh Yegani

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Plants provide the wealth of bioactive compounds, which exert a substantial strategy for the treatment of neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease. Recently, a lot of studies have explored the medicinal properties of curcumin, including antitumoral, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antiviral, and anti-Alzheimer's disease effects. Metal complexes of curcumin (1,7-bis(4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-1,6-heptadiene-3,5-dione) were synthesized with Mn(II) and Fe(III). The structures of synthesized metal complexes have been characterized by using spectroscopic and analytic methods such as elemental analysis, magnetic susceptibility, FT-IR, AAS, TG and argentometric titration. It was determined that the complexes have octahedral geometry. The effects of the metal complexes on the disorder of memory, which is an important symptom of Alzheimer's Disease were studied on lab rats with Plus-Maze Tests at Behavioral Pharmacology Laboratory.

Keywords: curcumin, Mn(II), Fe(III), Alzheimer disease, beta amyloid 25-35

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Authors: M. Ahmadi, Sh. Damanabi, F. Sadoughi

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National Health Information System plays an important role in ensuring timely and reliable access to Health information which is essential for strategic and operational decisions that improve health, quality and effectiveness of health care. In other words, by using the National Health information system you can improve the quality of health data, information and knowledge used to support decision making at all levels and areas of the health sector. Since full identification of the components of this system for better planning and management influential factors of performance seems necessary, therefore, in this study, different attitudes towards components of this system are explored comparatively. Methods: This is a descriptive and comparative kind of study. The society includes printed and electronic documents containing components of the national health information system in three parts: input, process, and output. In this context, search for information using library resources and internet search were conducted and data analysis was expressed using comparative tables and qualitative data. Results: The findings showed that there are three different perspectives presenting the components of national health information system, Lippeveld, Sauerborn, and Bodart Model in 2000, Health Metrics Network (HMN) model from World Health Organization in 2008 and Gattini’s 2009 model. All three models outlined above in the input (resources and structure) require components of management and leadership, planning and design programs, supply of staff, software and hardware facilities, and equipment. In addition, in the ‘process’ section from three models, we pointed up the actions ensuring the quality of health information system and in output section, except Lippeveld Model, two other models consider information products, usage and distribution of information as components of the national health information system. Conclusion: The results showed that all the three models have had a brief discussion about the components of health information in input section. However, Lippeveld model has overlooked the components of national health information in process and output sections. Therefore, it seems that the health measurement model of network has a comprehensive presentation for the components of health system in all three sections-input, process, and output.

Keywords: National Health Information System, components of the NHIS, Lippeveld Model

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Authors: Ahmed R. Abdelaziz, Zaki M. I. Osha

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Solar radiation data are of great significance for solar energy system design. This study aims at developing and calibrating new empirical models for estimating monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Alexandria, Egypt. Day length hours, sun height, day number, and declination angle calculated data are used for this purpose. A comparison between measured and calculated values of solar radiation is carried out. It is shown that all the proposed correlations are able to predict the global solar radiation with excellent accuracy in Alexandria.

Keywords: solar energy, global solar radiation, model, regression coefficient

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

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This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

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Authors: Jiahe Liu, Hongyang Yu, Feng Qian, Miao Luo

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SMPL-X was a powerful parametric human body model that included male, neutral, and female models, with significant gender differences between these three models. During the process of 3D human body reconstruction, the correct selection of standard templates was crucial for obtaining accurate results. To address this issue, we developed an efficient gender classification algorithm to automatically select the appropriate template for 3D human body reconstruction. The key to this gender classification algorithm was the precise analysis of human body features. By using the SMPL-X model, the algorithm could detect and identify gender features of the human body, thereby determining which standard template should be used. The accuracy of this algorithm made the 3D reconstruction process more accurate and reliable, as it could adjust model parameters based on individual gender differences. SMPL-X and the related gender classification algorithm have brought important advancements to the field of 3D human body reconstruction. By accurately selecting standard templates, they have improved the accuracy of reconstruction and have broad potential in various application fields. These technologies continue to drive the development of the 3D reconstruction field, providing us with more realistic and accurate human body models.

Keywords: gender classification, joint detection, SMPL-X, 3D reconstruction

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Authors: J. Sharon Mano Pappu, Sathyanarayana N. Gummadi

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Growth of Debaryomyces nepalensis on mixed substrates in batch culture follows diauxic pattern of completely utilizing glucose during the first exponential growth phase, followed by an intermediate lag phase and a second exponential growth phase consuming xylose. The present study deals with the development of cybernetic mathematical model for prediction of xylitol production and yield. Production of xylitol from xylose in batch fermentation is investigated in the presence of glucose as the co-substrate. Different ratios of glucose and xylose concentrations are assessed to study the impact of multi substrate on production of xylitol in batch reactors. The parameters in the model equations were estimated from experimental observations using integral method. The model equations were solved simultaneously by numerical technique using MATLAB. The developed cybernetic model of xylose fermentation in the presence of a co-substrate can provide answers about how the ratio of glucose to xylose influences the yield and rate of production of xylitol. This model is expected to accurately predict the growth of microorganism on mixed substrate, duration of intermediate lag phase, consumption of substrate, production of xylitol. The model developed based on cybernetic modelling framework can be helpful to simulate the dynamic competition between the metabolic pathways.

Keywords: co-substrate, cybernetic model, diauxic growth, xylose, xylitol

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Authors: Zhaoming Yang, Qi Xiang, Qian He, Michael Havbro Faber, Enrico Zio, Huai Su, Jinjun Zhang

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Resilience is one of the key factors for system safety assessment and optimization, and resilience studies of natural gas pipeline systems (NGPS), especially in terms of process descriptions, are still being explored. Based on the three main stages, which are function loss process, recovery process, and waiting process, the paper has built functions and models which are according to the practical characteristics of NGPS and mainly analyzes the characteristics of deterministic interruptions. The resilience of NGPS also considers the threshold of the system function or users' satisfaction. The outcomes, which quantify the resilience of NGPS in different evaluation views, can be combined with the max flow and shortest path methods, help with the optimization of extra gas supplies and gas routes as well as pipeline maintenance strategies, the quick analysis of disturbance effects and the improvement of NGPS resilience evaluation accuracy.

Keywords: natural gas pipeline system, resilience, process modeling, deterministic disturbance

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Authors: Vigen Barkhudaryan

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The influence of external effects (γ-, UV–radiations, high temperature) in presence of air oxygen on structural transformations of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) have been investigated dependent on the polymers’ thickness, the intensity and the dose of external actions. The methods of viscosimetry, light scattering, turbidimetry and gelation measuring were used for this purpose. The comparison of influence of external effects on LDPE shows, that the destruction and cross-linking processes of macromolecules proceed simultaneously with all kinds of external effects. A remarkable growth of average molecular mass of LDPE along with the irradiation doses and heat treatment exposure growth was established. It was linear for the mass average molecular mass and at the initial doses is mainly the result of the increase of the macromolecular branching. As a result, the macromolecular hydrodynamic volumes have been changed, and therefore the dependence of viscosity average molecular mass on the doses was going through the minimum at initial doses. A significant change of molecular mass, sizes and shape of macromolecules of LDPE occurs under the influence of external effects. The influence is limited only by diffusion of oxygen during -irradiation and heat treatment. At UV–irradiation the influence is limited both by diffusion of oxygen and penetration of radiation. Consequently, the molecular transformations are deeper and evident in case of -irradiation, as soon as the polymer is transformed in a whole volume. It was also established, that the mechanism of molecular transformations in polymers from the surface layer distinctly differs from those of the sample deeper layer. A comparison of the results of these investigations allows us to conclude, that the mechanisms of influence of investigated external effects on polyethylene are similar.

Keywords: cross-linking, destruction, high temperature, LDPE, γ-radiations, UV-radiations

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Ghada Elshafei, A. Elazim Negm

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Recently, Green architecture becomes a significant way to a sustainable future. Green building designs involve finding the balance between comfortable homebuilding and sustainable environment. Moreover, the utilization of the new technologies such as artificial intelligence techniques are used to complement current practices in creating greener structures to keep the built environment more sustainable. The most common objectives are green buildings should be designed to minimize the overall impact of the built environment on ecosystems in general and particularly on human health and on the natural environment. This will lead to protecting occupant health, improving employee productivity, reducing pollution and sustaining the environmental. In green building design, multiple parameters which may be interrelated, contradicting, vague and of qualitative/quantitative nature are broaden to use. This paper presents a comprehensive critical state of art review of current practices based on fuzzy and its combination techniques. Also, presented how green architecture/building can be improved using the technologies that been used for analysis to seek optimal green solutions strategies and models to assist in making the best possible decision out of different alternatives.

Keywords: green architecture/building, technologies, optimization, strategies, fuzzy techniques, models

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Authors: Valentina Rodas, Luis Almache

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The interaction effects between the existing soil and the substructure of a 5-story building with an underground one were evaluated in such a way that the structural-geotechnical concepts were validated through the method of impedance factors with a program based on the method of the finite elements. The continuous wall-type foundation had a constant thickness and followed inclined and orthogonal directions, while the ground had homogeneous and medium-type characteristics. The soil considered was type C according to the Ecuadorian Construction Standard (NEC) and the corresponding foundation comprised a depth of 4.00 meters and a basement wall thickness of 40 centimeters. This project is part of a mid-rise building in the city of Azogues (Ecuador). The hypotheses raised responded to the objectives in such a way that the model implemented with springs had a variation with respect to the embedded base, obtaining conservative results.

Keywords: interaction, soil, substructure, springs, effects, modeling , embedment

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Authors: Ragy Raafat Gaber Attaalla

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PIP: This review, based on 2 large-scale studies, discusses the pharmacology and physiology of oral steroid contraceptives (OCs). The pharmacological distinction between synthetic and naturally occurring steroids centers on changes in biological activity dependent on compound formulation and an individual's metabolism. OC mechanism of action is explained as the main prevention of ovulation by interference with gonadotropin-releasing hormone. Since some 52 metabolic alterations have been reported in OC users, these phenomena are dealt with in 3 categories: 1) effects on the primary target organs of the female reproductive tract (ovary, myometrium, endometrium, cervix, vagina, breasts, and hypothalamus), 2) general metabolic effects (serum proteins, carbohydrate metabolism, lipid metabolism, water and electrolyte metabolism, body weight, tryptophan metabolism, and vitamins and minerals), and 3) effects on other organ systems (liver, central nervous system, skin, genitourinary, gastrointestinal tract, eye, immune phenomena, and effect on subsequent fertility). The choice of the proper OC formulation and use of OCs by adolescents are discussed. Assessment of OC safety, contraindications, and patient monitoring are provided.

Keywords: steroid oral contraceptives, ovulation, female reproductive tract, metabolic effects

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Authors: Luqman Afolabi

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This paper measures the impacts of trade and institutions on environmental quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To examine the direction and the magnitude of the effects, the study employs the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation technique on the panel data obtained from the World Bank’s World Development and Governance Indicators, between 1996 and 2018. The empirical estimates validate the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC) for the region, even though there have been inconclusive results on the environment – growth nexus. Similarly, a positive coefficient is obtained on the impact of trade on the environment, while the impact of the institutional indicators produce mixed results. A significant policy implication is that the governments of the SSA countries pursue policies that tend to increase economic growth, so that pollutants may be reduced. Such policies may include the provision of incentives for sustainable growth-driven industries in the region. In addition, the governance infrastructures should be improved in such a way that appropriate penalties are imposed on the pollutants, while advanced technologies that have the potentials to reduce environmental degradation should be encouraged. Finally, it is imperative from these findings that the governments of the region should promote their trade relations and the competitiveness of their local industries in order to keep pace with the global markets.

Keywords: environmental quality, institutional quality sustainable development goals, trade

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Authors: Feiyu Fang, Han Wang, Xin Chen, Jun Zeng, Feng Liang, Peixuan Wu

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The 'rope coiling' effect is a normal instability phenomenon widespread exists in viscous fluid, elastic rods and polymeric fibers owing to compressive stress when they fall into a moving belt. Near-field electro-spinning is the modified electro-spinning technique has the ability to direct write micro fibers. In this research, we study the “rope coiling” effect in near-field electro-spinning. By changing the distance between nozzle and collector or the speed ratio between the charge jet speed and the platform moving speed, we obtain a pile of different models coils including the meandering, alternating and coiling patterns. Therefore, this instability can be used to direct write micro structured fibers with a one-step process.

Keywords: rope coiling effects, near-field electrospinning, direct write, micro structure

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Authors: M. Kamil, Rahber Husain Khan

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In the present study, the Interaction of anionic polymer, sodium carboxymethylcellulose (NaCMC), with cationic gemini surfactants 2,2[(oxybis(ethane-1,2-diyl))bis(oxy)]bis(N-hexadecyl1-N,N-[di(E2)/tri(E3)]methyl1-2-oxoethanaminium)chloride (16-E2-16 and 16-E3-16) and conventional surfactant (CTAC) in aqueous solutions have been studied by surface tension measurement of binary mixtures (0.0- 0.5 wt% NaCMC and 1 mM gemini surfactant/10 mM CTAC solution). Surface tension measurements were used to determine critical aggregation concentration (CAC) and critical micelle concentration (CMC). The maximum surface excess concentration (Ґmax) at the air-water interface was evaluated by the Gibbs adsorption equation. The minimum area per surfactant molecule was evaluated, which indicates the surfactant-polymer Interaction in a mixed system. The effect of changing surfactant chain length on CAC and CMC values of mixed polymer-surfactant systems was examined. From the results, it was found that the gemini surfactant interacts strongly with NaCMC as compared to its corresponding monomeric counterpart CTAC. In these systems, electrostatic interactions predominate. The lowering of surface tension with an increase in the concentration of surfactants is higher in the case of gemini surfactants almost 10-15 times. The measurements indicated that the Interaction between NaCMC-CTAC resulted in complex formation. The volume of coacervate increases with an increase in CTAC concentration; however, above 0.1 wt. % concentration coacervate vanishes.

Keywords: anionic polymer, gemni surfactants, tensiometer, CMC, interaction

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Nowshin Nabila Siddique, S. M. Mustafizur Rahman

Abstract:

There is evidence of cyclonic events in Bay of Bengal (BoB) throughout the year. These cyclones cause a variety of fluctuations along its track including the is the influence in Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration. The main purpose of this paper is to justify this variation pattern. Six Tropical Cyclones (TC) are studied using observational method. The result suggests that there is a noticeable change in productivity after a cyclone passes, when the pre cyclonic and post cyclonic condition is observed. In case of Cyclone Amphan, it shows 1.79 mg/m3 of chlorophyll-a concentration increase after a week of cyclonic occurrence. This change is affected by several attributes such as translation speed, intensity and Ocean Pre-condition, specifically Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). Translation Speed and MLD shows a strong negative correlation with the induced chlorophyll concentration. Whereas the effect of the intensity on a cyclone is not that prominent. It is also found that the period of starting an induction is not same for all cyclone such as in case of Cyclone Amphan, the changes started to occur after one day however for Cyclone Sidr and Cyclone Mora it started after three days. Furthermore, a slightly increase in overall productivity is also observed after a cyclone. In the case of Cyclone Amphan, Hudhud, Phailin it shows a rise up to 0.12 mg/m3 in productivity which decreases gradually taking around the period of two months. On a whole this paper signifies the changes in chlorophyll concentration caused by numerous cyclones and its different characteristics that regulates these changes.

Keywords: tropical cyclone, chlorophyll-a concentration, mixed layer depth, translation speed

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

Abstract:

Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 304