Search results for: prediction interval

Authors: Ouafa Amira, Jiangshe Zhang

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Clustering is an unsupervised machine learning technique; its aim is to extract the data structures, in which similar data objects are grouped in the same cluster, whereas dissimilar objects are grouped in different clusters. Clustering methods are widely utilized in different fields, such as: image processing, computer vision , and pattern recognition, etc. Fuzzy c-means clustering (fcm) is one of the most well known fuzzy clustering methods. It is based on solving an optimization problem, in which a minimization of a given cost function has been studied. This minimization aims to decrease the dissimilarity inside clusters, where the dissimilarity here is measured by the distances between data objects and cluster centers. The degree of belonging of a data point in a cluster is measured by a membership function which is included in the interval [0, 1]. In fcm clustering, the membership degree is constrained with the condition that the sum of a data object’s memberships in all clusters must be equal to one. This constraint can cause several problems, specially when our data objects are included in a noisy space. Regularization approach took a part in fuzzy c-means clustering technique. This process introduces an additional information in order to solve an ill-posed optimization problem. In this study, we focus on regularization by relative entropy approach, where in our optimization problem we aim to minimize the dissimilarity inside clusters. Finding an appropriate membership degree to each data object is our objective, because an appropriate membership degree leads to an accurate clustering result. Our clustering results in synthetic data sets, gaussian based data sets, and real world data sets show that our proposed model achieves a good accuracy.

Keywords: clustering, fuzzy c-means, regularization, relative entropy

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Authors: Danladi Ali

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This work proposed to adopt and optimize the conventional method of estimating power generated from campus solid waste (CSW) using an intelligent technique. The chemical content of the CSW was analyzed, the population responsible for the generation of the CSW, the amount of CSW generated, power to grid predicted and forecasted were obtained, and sources of supply of electricity for Adamawa State University (ADSU) were compared with the PGPs estimated from the CSW. The percentage content of the chemical elements was obtained as 56.90% carbon, 8.40% hydrogen, 27.70% oxygen, 6.00% nitrogen and 1.00% sulfur. The amount of the CSW generated and power to grid predicted and forecasted for 10 years was determined as 287.74 tons/day, 13.12MW and 12.90 MW, respectively. A model for estimating power potential from CSW for ADSU was developed, and also the work revealed that the PGPs estimated from the CSW are adequate to power the University for 24 hours on a daily basis.

Keywords: prediction, intelligent, forecasting, environment, power to grid, campus solid waste

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Authors: Yulia V. Krasavtseva, Tatiana V. Kornilova

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Risk-taking behaviors are not only dictated by cognitive components but also involve emotional aspects. Anticipatory emotions, involving both cognitive and affective mechanisms, are involved in decision-making in general, and risk-taking in particular. Affective reactions are prompted when an expectation or prediction is either validated or invalidated in the achieved result. This study aimed to combine predictions, anticipatory emotions, affective reactions, and personality traits in the context of risk-taking behaviors. An experimental online method Emotion and Prediction In a Casino (EPIC) was used, based on a casino-like roulette game. In a series of choices, the participant is presented with progressively riskier roulette combinations, where the potential sums of wins and losses increase with each choice and the participant is given a choice: to 'walk away' with the current sum of money or to 'play' the displayed roulette, thus accepting the implicit risk. Before and after the result is displayed, participants also rate their emotions, using the Self-Assessment Mannequin [Bradley, Lang, 1994], picking a picture, representing the intensity of pleasure, arousal, and dominance. The following personality measures were used: 1) Personal Decision-Making Factors [Kornilova, 2003] assessing risk and rationality; 2) I7 – Impulsivity Questionnaire [Kornilova, 1995] assessing impulsiveness, risk readiness, and empathy and 3) Subjective Risk Intelligence Scale [Craparo et al., 2018] assessing negative attitude toward uncertainty, emotional stress vulnerability, imaginative capability, and problem-solving self-efficacy. Two groups of participants took part in the study: 1) 98 university students (Mage=19.71, SD=3.25; 72% female) and 2) 94 online participants (Mage=28.25, SD=8.25; 89% female). Online participants were recruited via social media. Students with high rationality rated their pleasure and dominance before and after choices as lower (ρ from -2.6 to -2.7, p < 0.05). Those with high levels of impulsivity rated their arousal lower before finding out their result (ρ from 2.5 - 3.7, p < 0.05), while also rating their dominance as low (ρ from -3 to -3.7, p < 0.05). Students prone to risk-rated their pleasure and arousal before and after higher (ρ from 2.5 - 3.6, p < 0.05). High empathy was positively correlated with arousal after learning the result. High emotional stress vulnerability positively correlates with arousal and pleasure after the choice (ρ from 3.9 - 5.7, p < 0.05). Negative attitude to uncertainty is correlated with high anticipatory and reactive arousal (ρ from 2.7 - 5.7, p < 0.05). High imaginative capability correlates negatively with anticipatory and reactive dominance (ρ from - 3.4 to - 4.3, p < 0.05). Pleasure (.492), arousal (.590), and dominance (.551) before and after the result were positively correlated. Higher predictions positively correlated with reactive pleasure and arousal. In a riskier scenario (6/8 chances to win), anticipatory arousal was negatively correlated with the pleasure emotion (-.326) and vice versa (-.265). Correlations occur regardless of the roulette outcome. In conclusion, risk-taking behaviors are linked not only to personality traits but also to anticipatory emotions and affect in a modeled casino setting. Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 19-29-07069.

Keywords: anticipatory emotions, casino game, risk taking, impulsiveness

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

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Authors: Eun Kyung Kim, Kyehan Rhee

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Viscoelastic wall properties of the arterial plaques change as the disease progresses, and estimation of wall viscoelasticity can provide a valuable assessment tool for plaque rupture prediction. Cross section of the stenotic coronary artery was modeled based on the IVUS image, and the finite element analysis was performed to get wall deformation under pulsatile pressure. The effects of viscoelastic parameters of the plaque on luminal diameter variations were explored. The result showed that decrease of viscous effect reduced the phase angle between the pressure and displacement waveforms, and phase angle was dependent on the viscoelastic properties of the wall. Because viscous effect of tissue components could be identified using the phase angle difference, wall deformation waveform analysis may be applied to predict plaque wall composition change and vascular wall disease progression.

Keywords: atherosclerotic plaque, diameter variation, finite element method, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Saqib Saleem Abdullah, Saima Masood, Hafsa Zaneb, Shela Gul Bokhari, Muti Ur Rehman, Jamil Akbar

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A 5- weeks feeding trial was carried out to determine the effectiveness of Bacterial Phytase (Phyzyme®) in broilers, at different dietary levels of Phosphorous. 140 d-old broilers (Hubbard) were randomly divided into 4 groups (n=4). Birds were fed corn-based basal diet or the same diet supplemented with 3 different levels of non Phytate Phosphorous (NPP) (0.45 %, 0.30 % and 0.15 %). Furthermore, the diets were supplemented with bacterial Phytase. Birds were fed ad libitum and kept under thermo neutral conditions. The parameters studied were; body weight gain (BWG), tibial bone characteristics (TBC), serum Calcium (Ca), Phosphorus (P) and Alkaline Phosphatase (AP) levels and tibia ash percentage (TAP). BWG of the broilers was calculated at weekly interval and remaining parameters were calculated after slaughtering the birds at 35thday. Results suggested that Phytase supplementation at 0.30% NPP (Non Phytate Phosphorus + Bacterial Phytase) increased (P < 0.05) the BWG, bone length, bone weight, tibiotarsal index, medullary canal diameter and diaphysis diameter however, rubosticity index was reduced to minimum (P < 0.05) at this dietary level of phosphorous when compared with other groups. Maximum (P < 0.05) rubosticity index was observed in control group with 0% Phytase. Furthermore, Phytase addition at 0.30 % NPP also improved (P < 0.05) Ca, P and AP levels in the blood. Phytase supplementation at lower phosphorus level (0.30%NPP) improved BWG and TBC including bone density and bone quality in broilers hence it can be concluded that addition of Phytase at 0.30% NPP may prove beneficial for bone and overall performance in broilers.

Keywords: diaphysis diameter, phytase, rubosticity index, tibia

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Authors: Vignesh Ratnaraj, Jaewon Chang

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Background: Frailty is associated with poorer outcomes in cardiac surgery, but the heterogeneity in frailty assessment tools makes it difficult to ascertain its true impact in cardiac surgery. Slow gait speed is a simple, validated, and reliable marker of frailty. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the effect of slow gait speed on postoperative cardiac surgical patients. Methods: PubMED, MEDLINE, and EMBASE databases were searched from January 2000 to August 2021 for studies comparing slow gait speed and “normal” gait speed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were composite mortality and major morbidity, AKI, stroke, deep sternal wound infection, prolonged ventilation, discharge to a healthcare facility, and ICU length of stay. Results: There were seven eligible studies with 36,697 patients. Slow gait speed was associated with an increased likelihood of in-hospital mortality (risk ratio [RR]: 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87–2.87). Additionally, they were more likely to suffer from composite mortality and major morbidity (RR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.38–1.66), AKI (RR: 2.81; 95% CI: 1.44–5.49), deep sternal wound infection (RR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.59–1.98), prolonged ventilation >24 h (RR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.48–2.63), reoperation (RR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.05–1.82), institutional discharge (RR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.61–2.69), and longer ICU length of stay (MD: 21.69; 95% CI: 17.32–26.05). Conclusion: Slow gait speed is associated with poorer outcomes in cardiac surgery. Frail patients are twofold more likely to die during hospital admission than non-frail counterparts and are at an increased risk of developing various perioperative complications.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, gait speed, recovery, frailty

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Authors: Alexander B. Barker, Megan Parkin, Shreesh Sinha, Emma Wilson, Rachael L. Murray

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Objectives: Exposure to HFSS imagery is associated with consumption of foods high in fat, sugar, or salt (HFSS), and subsequently obesity, among young people. We report and compare the results of two content analyses, one of two popular terrestrial children’s television channels in the UK and the other of a selection of children’s programs available on video-on-demand (VOD) streaming sites. Design: Content analysis of three days’ worth of programs (including advertisements) on two popular children’s television channels broadcast on UK television (CBeebies and Milkshake) as well as a sample of 40 highest-rated children’s programs available on the VOD platforms, Netflix and Amazon Prime, using 1-minute interval coding. Setting: United Kingdom, Participants: None. Results: HFSS content was seen in 181 broadcasts (36%) and in 417 intervals (13%) on terrestrial television, ‘Milkshake’ had a significantly higher proportion of programs/adverts which contained HFSS content than ‘CBeebies’. In VOD platforms, HFSS content was seen in 82 episodes (72% of the total number of episodes), across 459 intervals (19% of the total number of intervals), with no significant difference in the proportion of programs containing HFSS content between Netflix and Amazon Prime. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that HFSS content is common in both popular UK children’s television channels and children's programs on VOD services. Since previous research has shown that HFSS content in the media has an effect on HFSS consumption, children’s television programs broadcast either on TV or VOD services are likely having an effect on HFSS consumption in children and legislative opportunities to prevent this exposure are being missed.

Keywords: public health, epidemiology, obesity, content analysis

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Authors: Ju-young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak, Hong Jae Yim

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This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical non-linearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, Prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC structures, heat transfer analysis, nonlinear analysis, after-cooling concrete model

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Authors: Li Zhang, Yuehong Su

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Lightpipe as a mature solar light tube technique has been employed worldwide. Accurately assessing the performance of lightpipe and evaluate daylighting available has been a challenging topic. Previous research had used regression model and computational simulation methods to estimate the performance of lightpipe. However, due to the nonlinear nature of solar light transferring in lightpipe, the methods mentioned above express inaccurate and time-costing issues. In the present study, a neural network model as an alternative method is investigated to predict the transmittance of lightpipe. Four types of commercial lightpipe with bended angle 0°, 30°, 45° and 60° are discussed under clear, intermediate and overcast sky conditions respectively. The neural network is generated in MATLAB by using the outcomes of an optical software Photopia simulations as targets for networks training and testing. The coefficient of determination (R²) for each model is higher than 0.98, and the mean square error (MSE) is less than 0.0019, which indicate the neural network strong predictive ability and the use of the neural network method could be an efficient technique for determining the performance of lightpipe.

Keywords: neural network, bended lightpipe, transmittance, Photopia

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Authors: Benjamin Leiby, Darryl Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression

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Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

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As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focuses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: auto-ID, construction logistic, fuzzy, monitoring, RFID, scheduling

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Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin

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This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.

Keywords: ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling

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Authors: L. Vafaei, McDominic Eze

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The performance of thermal energy in homes and buildings is a significant factor in terms of energy efficiency of a building. In a large sense, the performance of thermal energy is dependent on many factors of which the amount of thermal insulation is at one end a considerable factor, as likewise the essence of mass and the wall thickness and also the thermal resistance of wall material. This study is aimed at illustrating the different wall system in Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC), acknowledge the problem and suggest a solution through comparing the effect of thermal radiation two model rooms- L1 (Ytong wall) and L2 (heat insulated wall using stone wool) set up for experimentation. The model room has four face walls. The study consists of two stage, the first test is to access the effect of solar radiation for south facing wall and the second stage is to test the thermal performance of Ytong and heat insulated wall, the effects of climatic condition during winter. The heat insulated wall contains material hollow brick, stone wool, and gypsum while the Ytong wall contains cement concrete, for the outer surface and the inner surface and Ytong stone. The total heat of the wall was determined, 7T-Type thermocouple was used with a data logger system to record the data, temperature change recorded at an interval of 10 minutes. The result obtained was that Ytong wall save more energy than the heat insulated wall at night while heat insulated wall saves energy during the day when intensity is at maximum.

Keywords: heat insulation, hollow bricks, south facing, Ytong bricks wall

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Debesh R. Roy

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The fundamental issue in understanding the origin and growth mechanism of nanomaterials, from a fundamental unit is a big challenging problem to the scientists. Recently, an immense attention is generated to the researchers for prediction of exceptionally stable atomic cluster units as the building units for future smart materials. The present study is a systematic investigation on the stability and electronic properties of a series of bimetallic (semiconductor-alkaline earth) clusters, viz., BxMg3 (x=1-5) is performed, in search for exceptional and/ or unusual stable motifs. A very popular hybrid exchange-correlation functional, B3LYP as proposed by A. D. Becke along with a higher basis set, viz., 6-31+G[d,p] is employed for this purpose under the density functional formalism. The magic stability among the concerned clusters is explained using the jellium model. It is evident from the present study that the magic stability of B4Mg3 cluster arises due to the jellium shell closure.

Keywords: atomic clusters, density functional theory, jellium model, magic clusters, smart nanomaterials

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Authors: M. Khalfa, H. Khachai, F. Chiker, K. Bougherara, R. Khenata, G. Murtaza, M. Harmel

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A theoretical study of structural, elastic, electronic and thermodynamic properties of Fe2VX, (with X = Al and Ga), were studied by means of the full-relativistic version of the full-potential augmented plane wave plus local orbitals method. For exchange and correlation potential we used both generalized-gradient approximation (GGA) and local-density approximation (LDA). Our calculated ground state properties like as lattice constants, bulk modulus and elastic constants appear more accurate when we employed the GGA rather than the LDA approximation, and these results agree very well with the available experimental and theoretical data. Further, prediction of the thermal effects on some macroscopic properties of Fe2VAl and Fe2VGa are given in this paper using the quasi-harmonic Debye model in which the lattice vibrations are taken into account. We have obtained successfully the variations of the primitive cell volume, volume expansion coefficient, heat capacities and Debye temperature with pressure and temperature in the ranges of 0–40 GPa and 0–1500 K.

Keywords: full Heusler, FP-LAPW, electronic properties, thermal properties

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Authors: Vivian Correa

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Hypothesis There are typical patterns - phenotypes - of sleep behaviors by age and biological sex groups of parasomnia patients where wearable devices could avoid injuries. Materials and methods We analyzed public video records on sleep-related behaviors likely representing parasomnias, looking for phenotypes in different groups. We searched public internet databases using the keywords “sleepwalking”, “sleep eating,” “sleep sex”, and “aggression in sleep” in six languages. Poor-quality vide-records and those showing apparently faked sleep behaviors were excluded. We classified the videos into estimated sex and age (children, adults, elderly) groups; scored the activity types by a self-made scoring scale; and applied binary logistic regression for analyzing the association between sleep behaviors versus the groups by STATA package providing 95% confidence interval and the probability of statistical significance. Results 224 videos (102 women) were analyzed. The odds of sleepwalking and related dangerous behaviors were lower in the elderly than in adults (P<0.025). Females performed complex risky behaviors during sleepwalking more often than males (P<0.012). Elderly people presented emotional behaviors less frequently than adults (P<0.004), and females showed them twice often as males. Elderly males had 40-fold odds compared to adults and children to perform aggressive movements and 70-fold odds of complex movements in the bed compared to adults. Conclusion Unlike other groups, the high chances of adults being sleepwalkers and elderly males performing intense and violent movements in bed showed us the importance of developing wearable parasomnia devices to prevent injuries.

Keywords: parasomnia, wearable devices, sleepwalking, RBD

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Authors: Radoslav Židek, Veronika Šidlová, Radovan Kasarda, Birgit Fuerst-Waltl

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Machine learning represents a set of topics dealing with the creation and evaluation of algorithms that facilitate pattern recognition, classification, and prediction, based on models derived from existing data. The data can present identification patterns which are used to classify into groups. The result of the analysis is the pattern which can be used for identification of data set without the need to obtain input data used for creation of this pattern. An important requirement in this process is careful data preparation validation of model used and its suitable interpretation. For breeders, it is important to know the origin of animals from the point of the genetic diversity. In case of missing pedigree information, other methods can be used for traceability of animal´s origin. Genetic diversity written in genetic data is holding relatively useful information to identify animals originated from individual countries. We can conclude that the application of data mining for molecular genetic data using supervised learning is an appropriate tool for hypothesis testing and identifying an individual.

Keywords: genetic data, Pinzgau cattle, supervised learning, machine learning

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Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

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Authors: Umit Duru

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of water balance and sediment yield in the Ankara gauged basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT in this region of Turkey. Thirteen years of monthly stream flow, and suspended sediment, data were used for calibration and validation. This research assessed model performance based on differences between observed and predicted suspended sediment yield during calibration (1987-1996) and validation (1982-1984) periods. Statistical comparisons of suspended sediment produced values for NSE (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency), RE (relative error), and R² (coefficient of determination), of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration period, and NSE, RE (%), and R² of 0.77, -2.61, and 0.87, respectively, during the validation period. Based on the analyses, SWAT satisfactorily simulated observed hydrology and sediment yields and can be used as a tool in decision making for water resources planning and management in the basin.

Keywords: calibration, GIS, sediment yield, SWAT, validation

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Authors: Omar Hussein El Ayadi, EmadY. El-Mansouri, Mohamed B. Dozan

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Production oil process require specific details i.e. oil composition. Generally, types of oil or differentiation between reservoir fluids depend specifically on composition. The main purpose of this study is to correlate and predict the Libyan oil (reservoir fluid and residual) composition utilizing tri-angle-coordinate plots discovered and tasked with Excel. The reservoir fluid data (61 old + 47 new), the residual oil data (33 new) collected from most of Libyan reservoirs were correlated with each others. Moreover, find a relation between stock tank molecular weight and stock tank oil gravity (oAPI), the molecular weight oh (C7+) versus residual oil gravity (oAPI). The average value of every oil composition was estimated including non-hydrocarbon (H2S, CO2, and N2). Nevertheless, the isomers (i-…) and normal (n-…) structure of (C4) and (C5) were also obtained. The summary of the conclusion is; utilizing excel Microsoft office to draw triangle coordinates to find two unknown component if only one is known. However, it is recommended to use the obtained oil composition plots and equations for any oil composition dependents i.e. optimum separator pressure.

Keywords: PVT, phase behavior, petroleum, chemical engineering

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Authors: Sasitharan Ambicapathy, J. Vignesh, P. Sivaraj, Godfrey Derek Sams, K. Sabarinath, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The external flow simulation of a flying car at take off phase is a daunting task owing to the fact that the prediction of the transient unsteady flow features during its deployment phase is very complex. In this paper 3D numerical simulations of external flow of Ferrari F430 proposed flying car with different NACA 9618 rectangular wings have been carried. Additionally, the aerodynamics characteristics have been generated for optimizing its geometry for achieving the minimum take off velocity with better overall performance in both road and air. The three-dimensional standard k-omega turbulence model has been used for capturing the intrinsic flow physics during the take off phase. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations is employed. Through the detailed parametric analytical studies we have conjectured that Ferrari F430 flying car facilitated with high wings having three different deployment histories during the take off phase is the best choice for accomplishing its better performance for the commercial applications.

Keywords: aerodynamics of flying car, air taxi, negative lift, roadable airplane

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Authors: Tzu-Hao Li, Yen-Ying Kung, Chang-Youh Tsai

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Oral dryness is a common chief complaint among patients with Sjőgren syndrome (SS), which is a disorder currently known as autoantibodies production; however, to author’s best knowledge, there has been no satisfying pharmacy to relieve the associated symptoms. Hence the effectiveness of other non-pharmacological interventions such as acupuncture should be accessed. We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) which evaluated the effectiveness of xerostomia in SS. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Chongqing Weipu Database (CQVIP), China Academic Journals Full-text Database, AiritiLibrary, Chinese Electronic Periodicals Service (CEPS), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) Database were searches through May 12, 2018 to select studies. Data for evaluation of subjective and objective xerostomia was extracted and was assessed with random-effects meta-analysis. After searching, a total of 541 references were yielded and five RCTs were included, covering 340 patients dry mouth resulted from SS, among whom 169 patients received acupuncture and 171 patients were control group. Acupuncture group was associated with higher subjective response rate (odds ratio 3.036, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.828 – 5.042, P < 0.001) and increased salivary flow rate (weighted mean difference [WMD] 3.066, 95% CI 2.969 – 3.164, P < 0.001), as an objective marker. In addition, two studies examined IgG levels, which were lower in the acupuncture group (WMD -166.857, 95% CI -233.138 - -100.576, P < 0.001). Therefore, in the present meta-analysis, acupuncture improves both subjective and objective markers of dry mouth with autoantibodies reduction in patients with SS and is considered as an option of non-pharmacological treatment for SS.

Keywords: acupuncture, meta-analysis, Sjogren syndrome, xerostomia

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Authors: Raphael M. Ritti-Dias, Marilia A. Correia, Wagner J. R. Domingues, Aline C. Palmeira, Paulo Longano, Nelson Wolosker, Lauro C. Vianna, Gabriel G. Cucato

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Patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) have a high prevalence of hypertension, which contributes to a high risk of acute cardiovascular events and cardiovascular mortality. Strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk of these patients are needed. Meta-analysis studies have shown that isometric handgrip training promotes reductions in clinical blood pressure in normotensive, pre-hypertensive and hypertensive individuals. However, the effect of this exercise training on other cardiovascular function indicators in PAD patients remains unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to analyze the effects of isometric handgrip training on blood pressure in patients with PAD. In this clinical trial, 28 patients were randomly allocated into two groups: isometric handgrip training (HG) and control (CG). The HG conducted the unilateral handgrip training three days per week (four sets of two minutes, with 30% of maximum voluntary contraction with an interval of four minutes between sets). CG was encouraged to increase their physical activity levels. At baseline and after eight weeks blood pressure and heart rate were obtained. ANOVA two-way for repeated measures with the group (GH and GC) and time (pre- and post-intervention) as factors was performed. After 8 weeks of training there were no significant changes in systolic blood pressure (HG pre 141 ± 24.0 mmHg vs. HG post 142 ± 22.0 mmHg; CG pre 140 ± 22.1 mmHg vs. CG post 146 ± 16.2 mmHg; P=0.18), diastolic blood pressure (HG pre 74 ± 10.4 mmHg vs. HG post 74 ± 11.9 mmHg; CG pre 72 ± 6.9 mmHg vs. CG post 74 ± 8.0 mmHg; P=0.22) and heart rate (HG pre 61 ± 10.5 bpm vs. HG post 62 ± 8.0 bpm; CG pre 64 ± 11.8 bpm vs. CG post 65 ± 13.6 bpm; P=0.81). In conclusion, our preliminary data indicate that isometric handgrip training did not modify blood pressure and heart rate in patients with PAD.

Keywords: blood pressure, exercise, isometric, peripheral artery disease

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Authors: Anneke Van Biljon

Abstract:

Background: Exercise is a primary form of preventing and improving cardiometabolic disease risk factors; however specific exercise variables and their associated health benefits in children are inconclusive. A preliminary study revealed that different exercise variables may improve particular cardiometabolic health benefits. Objectives: This study further investigated the specific cardiometabolic health benefits associated with three isocaloric exercise interventions set at different intensities. Methods: Hundred-and-twenty (n = 120) participants between the ages of 10 – 14 years old were assigned to four different study groups 1. High intensity interval training (HIIT) at > 80% MHR 2. Moderate intensity continuous training (MICT) at 65% – 70% MHR 3. Alternative intensities (ALT) of HIIT and MICT 4. Control group. Exercise interventions were designed to generate isocaloric workloads of ~154.77 kcal per session, three times per week for five weeks. The one-way ANOVA test established comparisons between group means. Post hoc tests were calculated to determine specific group differences. Results: Although, all exercise groups improved cardiometabolic health, the MICT group showed greater improvements in fasting glucose (-9.30%), whereas cardiorespiratory fitness increased most by 31.33% (p = 0.000) within the HIIT group. Finally, ALT group recorded overall superior and additional cardiometabolic health benefits compared with both MICT and HIIT groups. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that superior benefits may be elicited when combining and alternating MICT and HIIT. These results provide specific exercise recommendations for achieving optimal and substantial cardiometabolic health benefits in children which will contribute towards achieving the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 2030.

Keywords: cardiometabolic disease risk factors, exercise, pediatrics, interventions

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Authors: Lan Nguyen, Lam Cao Van

Abstract:

Thuan Phuoc is a suspension bridge built in Danang city, Vietnam. Because this bridge locates near the estuary, its structure has degraded rapidly. Many cracks have currently occurred on most of the concrete piers of the curved approach spans. This paper aims to present the results of diagnostic analysis of causes for cracks as well as some calculations for strengthening piers by carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP). Besides, it describes how to use concrete nonlinear analysis software ATENA to diagnostically analyze cracks, strengthening designs. Basing on the results of studying the map of distributing crack on Thuan Phuoc bridge’s concrete piers is analyzed by the software ATENA is suitable for the real conditions and CFRP would be the best solution to strengthen piers in a sound and fast way.

Keywords: ATENA, bridge pier strengthening, carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), crack prediction analysis

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Authors: Samah Laalej, Abdelfattah Bouatem

Abstract:

In the field of wind turbine blades, it is complicated to evaluate the aerodynamic performances through experimental measurements as it requires a lot of computing time and resources. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid BEM-CFD numerical technique is developed to predict power and aerodynamic forces acting on the blades. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation was conducted to calculate the drag and lift forces through Ansys software using the K-w model. Then an enhanced BEM code was created to predict the power outputs generated by the wind turbine using the aerodynamic properties extracted from the CFD approach. The numerical approach was compared and validated with experimental data. The power curves calculated from this hybrid method were in good agreement with experimental measurements for all velocity ranges.

Keywords: blade element momentum, aerodynamic forces, wind turbine blades, computational fluid dynamics approach

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Authors: Anit S. Malhotra, Ajay Duseja, Neelam Chadha

Abstract:

Endothelial dysfunction is a precursor to atherosclerosis, and flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) in the brachial artery is the commonest method to evaluate endothelial function in humans. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common liver disorders encountered in clinical practice. An earlier meta-analysis had quantitatively assessed the degree of endothelial dysfunction using FMD. However, the largest study investigating the relation of FMD with NAFLD was published after that meta-analysis. In addition, that meta-analysis did not include some studies, including one from our centre. Therefore, an updating the previous meta-analysis was considered important. We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Scopus, SCI, Google Scholar, conference proceedings, and references of included studies till June 2017 to identify observational studies evaluating endothelial function using FMD in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Data was analyzed using MedCalc. Fourteen studies were found eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Patients with NAFLD had lower brachial artery FMD as compared to controls, standardized mean difference (random effects model) being –1.279%; 95% confidence interval (CI), –1.478 to –0.914. The effect size became smaller after addition of the recent study with the largest sample size was included compared with the earlier meta-analysis. In conclusion, patients with NAFLD had low FMD values indicating that they are at a higher risk of cardiovascular disease although our results suggest the effect size is not as large as reported previously.

Keywords: endothelial dysfunction, flow-mediated dilatation, meta-analysis, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

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Authors: Ngozi Claribelle Nwogu, Mohammed Nasir Kajama, Oyoh Kechinyere, Edward Gobina

Abstract:

Atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions are considered as the greatest environmental challenge the world is facing today. The challenges to control the emissions include the recovery of CO2 from flue gas. This concern has been improved due to recent advances in materials process engineering resulting in the development of inorganic gas separation membranes with excellent thermal and mechanical stability required for most gas separations. This paper therefore evaluates the performance of a highly selective inorganic membrane for CO2 recovery applications. Analysis of results obtained is in agreement with experimental literature data. Further results show the prediction performance of the membranes for gas separation and the future direction of research. The materials selection and the membrane preparation techniques are discussed. Method of improving the interface defects in the membrane and its effect on the separation performance has also been reviewed and in addition advances to totally exploit the potential usage of this innovative membrane.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, gas separation, inorganic ceramic membrane, permselectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 320