Search results for: predict

Authors: Vatsal M. Patel, Navin B. Patel

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The present studies deal with the developing a series bearing a diphenyl ethers nucleus using structure-based drug design concept. A newer series of diphenyl ether based azetidinone namely N-(3-chloro-2-oxo-4-(3-phenoxyphenyl)azetidin-1-yl)-2-(substituted amino)acetamide (2a-j) have been synthesized by condensation of m-phenoxybenzaldehyde with 2-(substituted-phenylamino)acetohydrazide followed by the cyclisation of resulting Schiff base (1a-j) by conventional method as well as microwave heating approach as a part of an environmentally benign synthetic protocol. All the synthesized compounds were characterized by spectral analysis and were screened for in vitro antimicrobial, antitubercular and antiprotozoal activity. The compound 2f was found to be most active M. tuberculosis (6.25 µM) MIC value in the primary screening as well as this same derivative has been found potency against L. mexicana and T. cruzi with MIC value 2.09 and 6.69 µM comparable to the reference drug Miltefosina and Nifurtimox. To provide understandable evidence to predict binding mode and approximate binding energy of a compound to a target in the terms of ligand-protein interaction, all synthesized compounds were docked against an enoyl-[acyl-carrier-protein] reductase of M. tuberculosis (PDB ID: 4u0j). The computational studies revealed that azetidinone derivatives have a high affinity for the active site of enzyme which provides a strong platform for new structure-based design efforts. The Lipinski’s parameters showed good drug-like properties and can be developed as an oral drug candidate.

Keywords: antimycobacterial, antiprotozoal, azetidinone, diphenylether, docking, microwave

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Authors: Giang Vu, Duong Nguyen, Yuan-Ling Chen

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Vietnam is a fast developing country with highly economic growth, and Vietnam organizations strive to utilize high performance work system (HPWS) in reinforcing employee in-role performance. HPWS, a bundle of human resource (HR) practices, are composed of eight sets of HR practices, namely selective staffing, extensive training, internal mobility, employment security, clear job description, result-oriented appraisal, incentive reward, and participation. However, whether HPWS stimulate employee extra-role behaviors remains understudied in a booming economic context. In this study, we aim to investigate organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) in a Vietnam context and, as a central issue, disentangle how HPWS elicits in employee OCB. On the other hand, recently, a deliberation of so-called 'black-box' HPWS issue has explored the role of employee commitment, suggesting that organizational commitment is a compelling source of employee OCB. We draw upon social exchange theory to predict that when employees perceive the organizational investment, like HPWS, in heightening their abilities, knowledge, and motivation, they are more likely to pay back with commitment; consequently, they will take initiatives in OCB. Hence, we hypothesize an individual level framework, in which organizational commitment mediates the positive relationship between HPWS and OCB. We collected data on HPWS, organizational commitment, OCB, and demographic variables, all at line managers of Vietnamese firms in Hanoi and Hochiminh. We conclude with research findings, implications, and future research suggestions.

Keywords: high performance work system, organizational citizenship behavior, organizational commitment, Vietnam

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Authors: Saurav S. Rath, Birendra K. David

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Generic pharmaceutical industry has to operate in strict timelines of product development and scale-up from lab to plant. Hence, detailed product & process understanding and implementation of appropriate mechanistic modelling and Quality-by-design (QbD) approaches are imperative in the product life cycle. This work provides example cases of such efforts in topical dosage products. Topical products are typically in the form of emulsions, gels, thick suspensions or even simple solutions. The efficacy of such products is determined by characteristics like rheology and morphology. Defining, and scaling up the right manufacturing process with a given set of ingredients, to achieve the right product characteristics presents as a challenge to the process engineer. For example, the non-Newtonian rheology varies not only with CPPs and CMAs but also is an implicit function of globule size (CQA). Hence, this calls for various mechanistic models, to help predict the product behaviour. This paper focusses on such models obtained from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with population balance modelling (PBM) and constitutive models (like shear, energy density). In a special case of the use of high shear homogenisers (HSHs) for the manufacture of thick emulsions/gels, this work presents some findings on (i) scale-up algorithm for HSH using shear strain, a novel scale-up parameter for estimating mixing parameters, (ii) non-linear relationship between viscosity and shear imparted into the system, (iii) effect of hold time on rheology of product. Specific examples of how this approach enabled scale-up across 1L, 10L, 200L, 500L and 1000L scales will be discussed.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, morphology, quality-by-design, rheology

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Authors: Levent Dumenci, Laura A. Siminoff

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Health literacy has been shown to predict a variety of health outcomes. Reliable identification of persons with limited cancer health literacy (LCHL) has been proved questionable with existing instruments using an arbitrary cut point along a continuum. The CHLT-6, however, uses a latent mixture modeling approach to identify persons with LCHL. The purpose of this study was to estimate two-week and six-month stability of identifying persons with LCHL using the CHLT-6 with a discrete latent variable approach as the underlying measurement structure. Using a test-retest design, the CHLT-6 was administered to cancer patients with two-week (N=98) and six-month (N=51) intervals. The two-week and six-month latent test-retest agreements were 89% and 88%, respectively. The chance-corrected latent agreements estimated from Dumenci’s latent kappa were 0.62 (95% CI: 0.41 – 0.82) and .47 (95% CI: 0.14 – 0.80) for the two-week and six-month intervals, respectively. High levels of latent test-retest agreement between limited and adequate categories of cancer health literacy construct, coupled with moderate to good levels of change-corrected latent agreements indicated that the CHLT-6 classification of limited versus adequate cancer health literacy is relatively stable over time. In conclusion, the measurement structure underlying the instrument allows for estimating classification errors circumventing limitations due to arbitrary approaches adopted by all other instruments. The CHLT-6 can be used to identify persons with LCHL in oncology clinics and intervention studies to accurately estimate treatment effectiveness.

Keywords: limited cancer health literacy, the CHLT-6, discrete latent variable modeling, latent agreement

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Authors: K. C. Ching

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There is growing public concern over the increasing prevalence of student suicide in Hong Kong. Some identify the problem with insufficient social support, while some attribute it to the vast fluctuations in emotional experience and the hindrances to emotion-regulation, both typical of adolescence and emerging adulthood. This study is thus designed to explore the respective effect of perceived social support and emotion self-confidence, on positive emotions and negative emotions. Fifty-seven Hong Kong higher-education students (17 males, 40 females) aged between 18 and 25 (M = 21.78) responded to an online questionnaire consisted of self-reported measures of perceived social support, emotional self-confidence, positive emotions, and negative emotions. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that emotional self-confidence positively associated with positive emotions and negatively with negative emotions, while perceived social support positively associated with positive emotions but was not related to negative emotions. Perceived social support and emotional self-confidence both predicted positive emotions, but did not interact to predict any emotional outcome. It is concluded that students’ positive and negative emotional experiences are closely related to their emotion-regulation process. But for social support, its effect is merely protective, meaning that although perceived social support generally promotes positive emotions, it alone does not suffice to alleviate students’ negative emotions. These conclusions carry profound implications to suicide prevention practices, including that most existing suicide prevention campaigns should advance from merely fostering mutual support to directly promoting adaptive coping of emotional negativity.

Keywords: emerging adulthood, emotional self-confidence, hong kong, perceived social support, suicide prevention

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Talha A. Al-Dubai, Rashad A. Bantan, Ramadan H. Abu-Zied, Brian G. Jones, Aaid G. Al-Zubieri

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Contemporary foraminiferal samples sediments were collected from the intertidal sabkha of Al-Kharrar Lagoon, Saudi Arabia, to study the vertical distribution of Foraminifera and, based on a modern training set, their potential to develop a predictor of former sea-level changes in the area. Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the intertidal sabkha is divided into three vertical zones (A, B & C) represented by three foraminiferal assemblages, where agglutinated species occupied Zone A and calcareous species occupied the other two zones. In Zone A (high intertidal), Agglutinella compressa, Clavulina angularis and C. multicamerata are dominant species with a minor presence of Peneroplis planatus, Coscinospira hemprichii, Sorites orbiculus, Quinqueloculina lamarckiana, Q. seminula, Ammonia convexa and A. tepida. In contrast, in Zone B (middle intertidal) the most abundant species are P. planatus, C. hemprichii, S. orbiculus, Q. lamarckiana, Q. seminula and Q. laevigata, while Zone C (low intertidal) is characterised by C. hemprichii, Q. costata, S. orbiculus, P. planatus, A. convexa, A. tepida, Spiroloculina communis and S. costigera. A transfer function for sea-level reconstruction was developed using a modern dataset of 75 contemporary sediment samples and 99 species collected from several transects across the sabkha. The model provided an error of 0.12m, suggesting that intertidal foraminifers are able to predict the past sea-level changes with high precision in Al-Kharrar Lagoon, and thus the future prediction of those changes in the area.

Keywords: Lagoonal foraminifers, intertidal sabkha, vertical zonation, transfer function, sea level

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Authors: Tarek Sabri Duzan

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Knowledge of the magnitude of Geo-pressures (Pore, Fracture & Over-burden pressures) is vital especially during drilling, completions, stimulations, Enhance Oil Recovery. Many times problems, like lost circulation could have been avoided if techniques for calculating Geo-pressures had been employed in the well planning, mud weight plan, and casing design. In this paper, we focused on the relationships between Geo-pressures and wave velocities (P-Wave (Vp) and S-wave (Vs)) in shallow Libyan carbonate reservoir in the western part of the Sirte Basin (Dahra F-Area). The data used in this report was collected from four new wells recently drilled. Those wells were scattered throughout the interested reservoir as shown in figure-1. The data used in this work are bulk density, Formation Mult -Tester (FMT) results and Acoustic wave velocities. Furthermore, Eaton Method is the most common equation used in the world, therefore this equation has been used to calculate Fracture pressure for all wells using dynamic Poisson ratio calculated by using acoustic wave velocities, FMT results for pore pressure, Overburden pressure estimated by using bulk density. Upon data analysis, it has been found that there is a linear relationship between Geo-pressures (Pore, Fracture & Over-Burden pressures) and wave velocities ratio (Vp/Vs). However, the relationship was not clear in the high-pressure area, as shown in figure-10. Therefore, it is recommended to use the output relationship utilizing the new seismic data for shallow carbonate reservoir to predict the Geo-pressures for future oil operations. More data can be collected from the high-pressure zone to investigate more about this area.

Keywords: bulk density, formation mult-tester (FMT) results, acoustic wave, carbonate shalow reservoir, d/jfield velocities

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Authors: Juzhong Tan, William Kerr

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Conching is one critical procedure in chocolate processing, where special flavors are developed, and smooth mouse feel the texture of the chocolate is developed due to particle size reduction of cocoa mass and other additives. Therefore, determination of the particle size and volatile compounds profile of cocoa bean is important for chocolate manufacturers to ensure the quality of chocolate products. Currently, precise particle size measurement is usually done by laser scattering which is expensive and inaccessible to small/medium size chocolate manufacturers. Also, some other alternatives, such as micrometer and microscopy, can’t provide good measurements and provide little information. Volatile compounds analysis of cocoa during conching, has similar problems due to its high cost and limited accessibility. In this study, a self-made electronic nose system consists of gas sensors (TGS 800 and 2000 series) was inserted to a conching machine and was used to monitoring the volatile compound profile of chocolate during the conching. A model correlated volatile compounds profiles along with factors including the content of cocoa, sugar, and the temperature during the conching to particle size of chocolate particles by genetic programming was established. The model was used to predict the particle size reduction of chocolates with different cocoa mass to sugar ratio (1:2, 1:1, 1.5:1, 2:1) at 8 conching time (15min, 30min, 1h, 1.5h, 2h, 4h, 8h, and 24h). And the predictions were compared to laser scattering measurements of the same chocolate samples. 91.3% of the predictions were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 5% deviation. 99.3% were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 10% deviation.

Keywords: cocoa bean, conching, electronic nose, genetic programming

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Authors: Parthiban Srinivasan

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With recent advances in computational power and access to enough data in biosciences, artificial intelligence methods are increasingly being used in drug discovery research. These methods are essentially a series of advanced statistics based exercises that review the past to indicate the likely future. Our goal is to develop a model that accurately predicts biological activity and toxicity parameters for novel compounds. We have compiled a robust library of over 150,000 chemical compounds with different pharmacological properties from literature and public domain databases. The compounds are stored in simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES), a commonly used text encoding for organic molecules. We utilize an automated process to generate an array of numerical descriptors (features) for each molecule. Redundant and irrelevant descriptors are eliminated iteratively. Our prediction engine is based on a portfolio of machine learning algorithms. We found Random Forest algorithm to be a better choice for this analysis. We captured non-linear relationship in the data and formed a prediction model with reasonable accuracy by averaging across a large number of randomized decision trees. Our next step is to apply deep neural network (DNN) algorithm to predict the biological activity and toxicity properties. We expect the DNN algorithm to give better results and improve the accuracy of the prediction. This presentation will review all these prominent machine learning and deep learning methods, our implementation protocols and discuss these techniques for their usefulness in biomedical and health informatics.

Keywords: deep learning, drug discovery, health informatics, machine learning, toxicity prediction

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Authors: Marija Knez, James C.R. Stangoulis, Manja Zec, Zoran Pavlovic, Jasmina D. Martacic, Mirjana Gurinovic, Maria Glibetic

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Background: Zinc is an essential micronutrient for humans with important physiological functions. A sensitive and specific biomarker for assessing Zn status is still needed. Objective: The major aim of this study was to examine if the changes in the content of plasma phospholipid LA, DGLA and LA: DGLA ratio can be used to efficiently predict the dietary Zn intake and plasma Zn status of humans. Methods: The study was performed on apparently healthy human volunteers. The dietary Zn intake was assessed using 24h recall questionnaires. Plasma phospholipid fatty acid analysis was done by gas chromatography and plasma analysis of minerals by atomic absorption spectrometry. Biochemical, anthropometrical and hematological parameters were assessed. Results: No significant relationship was found between the dietary and plasma zinc status (r=0.07; p=0.6). There is a statistically significant correlation between DGLA and plasma Zn (r=0.39, p=0.00). No relationship was observed between the linoleic acid and plasma Zn, while there was a significant negative correlation between LA: DGLA ratio and plasma Zn status (r=-0.35, p=0.01). Similarly, there were statistically significant difference in DGLA status (p=0.004) and LA: DGLA ratio (p=0.042) between the Zn formed groups. Conclusions: This study is an initial step in evaluating LA: DGLA ratio as a biomarker of Zn status in humans. The results are encouraging as they show that concentration of DGLA is decreased and LA: DGLA ratio increased in people with lower dietary Zn intake. However, additional studies are needed to fully examine the sensitivity of this biomarker.

Keywords: dietary Zn intake Zinc, fatty acid composition, LA: DGLA, healthy population, plasma Zn status, Zn biomarker

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Authors: Ciro Cursio, Pio Luigi Cursio, Giulia Cursio, Isabella Chiardi, Luigi Cursio

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Introduction: Full-face aesthetic treatments often present a difficult task: since different patients possess different anatomical and tissue characteristics, there is no guarantee that the same treatment will have the same effect on multiple patients; additionally, full-face rejuvenation and beautification treatments require not only a high degree of technical skill but also the ability to choose the right product for each area and a keen artistic eye. Method: We present an artificial intelligence-based algorithm that can generate realistic post-treatment 3D models based on the patient’s requests together with the doctor’s input. These 3-dimensional predictions can be used by the practitioner for two purposes: firstly, they help ensure that the patient and the doctor are completely aligned on the expectations of the treatment; secondly, the doctor can use them as a visual guide, obtaining a natural result that would normally stem from the practitioner's artistic skills. To this end, the algorithm is able to predict injection zones, the type and quantity of hyaluronic acid, the injection depth, and the technique to use. Results: Our innovation consists in providing an objective visual representation of the patient that is helpful in the patient-doctor dialogue. The patient, based on this information, can express her desire to undergo a specific treatment or make changes to the therapeutic plan. In short, the patient becomes an active agent in the choices made before the treatment. Conclusion: We believe that this algorithm will reveal itself as a useful tool in the pre-treatment decision-making process to prevent both the patient and the doctor from making a leap into the dark.

Keywords: hyaluronic acid, fillers, full face, artificial intelligence, 3D

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Authors: Hamidoddin Yousefi, Ahmad Nikbakht

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The Sistan Plain, situated in the Balochistan region of southeastern Iran, is renowned for its arid climatic conditions and prevailing winds that persist for approximately 120 days annually. The region faces multiple challenges, including drought susceptibility, exacerbated by wind erosion, temperature fluctuations, and the influence of policies implemented by neighboring Afghanistan and Iran. This study focuses on investigating the characteristics of jet streams within the Sistan Plain and their implications for global climate change. Various models are employed to analyze convective mass fluxes, horizontal moisture transport, temporal variance, and the calculation of radiation convective equilibrium within the atmosphere. Key considerations encompass the distribution of relative humidity, dry air, and absolute humidity. Moreover, the research aims to predict the interplay between jet streams and human activities, particularly regarding their environmental impacts and water scarcity. The investigation encompasses both local and global environmental consequences, drawing upon historical climate change data and comprehensive field research. The anticipated outcomes of this study hold substantial potential for mitigating global climate change and its associated environmental ramifications. By comprehending the dynamics of jet streams and their interconnections with human activities, effective strategies can be formulated to address water scarcity and minimize environmental degradation.

Keywords: Sistani plain, Baluchistan, Hamoun lake, climate change, jet streams, environmental impact, water scarcity, mitigation

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Authors: I. Hua Chu, Hsiang-Chi Yu, Hsuan Su

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Purpose: To examine the associations between self-determined motivation and physical activity in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) in a longitudinal study. Methods: Patients with CHD were recruited for this study. Their motivations for exercise were measured by the Behavioral Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire-2 (BREQ-2). Physical activity was assessed using the 7-day physical activity recall questionnaire. Duration and energy expenditure of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were used in data analysis. All outcome measures were assessed at baseline and 12 months follow up. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results: The results of the 45 participants (mean age 60.24 yr; 90.2% male) revealed that there were significant negative correlations between amotivation at baseline and duration (r=-.295, p=.049) and energy expenditure (r=-.300, p=.045) of MVPA at 12 months. In contrast, there were significant positive correlations between calculated relative autonomy index (RAI) at baseline and duration (r=.377, p=.011) and energy expenditure (r=.382, p=.010) of MVPA at 12 months. There was no significant correlation between other subscales of the BREQ-2 and duration or energy expenditure of MVPA. Regression analyses revealed that RAI was a significant predictor of duration (p=.011) and energy expenditure (p=.010) of MVPA at 12 months follow-up. Conclusions: These results suggest that the relative degree of self-determined motivation could predict long-term MVPA behaviors in CHD patients. Physical activity interventions are recommended to target enhancing one’s identified and intrinsic motivation to increase the likelihood of physical activity participation in this population.

Keywords: self-determined motivation, physical activity, coronary heart disease, relative autonomy index (RAI)

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Authors: Sakae Suzuki

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Although Japanese students study English for six years in secondary schools, they demonstrate little success with it when they enter higher education. Learners’ beliefs can predict the future behavior of students, so it may be effective to investigate how learners’ beliefs limit their success and how beliefs might be nudged in a positive direction. While many researchers still depend on a questionnaire called BALLI to reveal explicit beliefs, alternative approaches, especially those designed to reveal implicit beliefs, might be helpful for promoting learning. The present study seeks to identify beliefs with a discursive approach using visual metaphors and narratives. Employing a sociocultural framework, this study investigates how students’ beliefs are revealed by drawings of themselves and their surrounding environments and artifacts while they are engaged in language learning. Research questions are: (1) Can we identify beliefs through an analysis of students’ visual narratives? (2) What environments and artifacts can be found in students’ drawings, and what do they mean? (3) To what extent do students see language learning as a solitary, rather than a social, activity? Participants are university students majoring in science and technology in Japan. The questionnaire was administered to 70 entering students in April, 2014. Data included students drawings of themselves as learners of English as well as written descriptions of students’ backgrounds, English-learning experiences, and analogies and metaphors that they used in written descriptions of themselves as learners. Data will be analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Anticipated results include students’ perceptions of themselves as language learners, including their sense of agency, awareness of artifacts, and social contexts of language learning. Comments will be made on implications for teaching, as well as the use of visual narratives as research tools, and recommended further research.

Keywords: drawings, learners' beliefs, metaphors, BALLI

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Authors: Suwapitch Chalongkulasak, Teerasak E-Kobon, Pramote Chumnanpuen

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Acne vulgaris is a common skin disease mainly caused by the Gram–positive pathogenic bacterium, Propionibacterium acnes. This bacterium stimulates inflammation process in human sebaceous glands. Giant African snail (Achatina fulica) is alien species that rapidly reproduces and seriously damages agricultural products in Thailand. There were several research reports on the medical and pharmaceutical benefits of this snail mucus peptides and proteins. This study aimed to in silico predict multifunctional bioactive peptides from A. fulica mucus peptidome using several bioinformatic tools for determination of antimicrobial (iAMPpred), anti–biofilm (dPABBs), cytotoxic (Toxinpred), cell membrane penetrating (CPPpred) and anti–quorum sensing (QSPpred) peptides. Three candidate peptides with the highest predictive score were selected and re-designed/modified to improve the required activities. Structural and physicochemical properties of six anti–P. acnes (APA) peptide candidates were performed by PEP–FOLD3 program and the five aforementioned tools. All candidates had random coiled structure and were named as APA1–ori, APA2–ori, APA3–ori, APA1–mod, APA2–mod and APA3–mod. To validate the APA activity, these peptide candidates were synthesized and tested against six isolates of P. acnes. The modified APA peptides showed high APA activity on some isolates. Therefore, our biomimetic mucus peptides could be useful for preventing acne vulgaris and further examined on other activities important to medical and pharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: Propionibacterium acnes, Achatina fulica, peptidomes, antibacterial peptides, snail mucus

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: climate change, Coastal Vulnerability Index, global warming, sea level rise

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Authors: Ferhat Erdal, Osman Tunca, Serkan Tas, Serdar Carbas

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Web-expanded steel beams provide an easy and economical solution for the systems having longer structural members. The main goal of manufacturing these beams is to increase the moment of inertia and section modulus, which results in greater strength and rigidity. Until recently, there were two common types of open web-expanded beams: with hexagonal openings, also called castellated beams, and beams with circular openings referred to as cellular beams, until the generation of sinusoidal web-expanded beams. In the present research, the optimum design of a new generation beams, namely sinusoidal web-expanded beams, will be carried out and the design results will be compared with castellated and cellular beam solutions. Thanks to a reduced fabrication process and substantial material savings, the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes (Angelina™ Beam) meets the economic requirements of steel design problems while ensuring optimum safety. The objective of this research is to carry out non-linear finite element analysis (FEA) of the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes. The FE method has been used to predict their entire response to increasing values of external loading until they lose their load carrying capacity. FE model of each specimen that is utilized in the experimental studies is carried out. These models are used to simulate the experimental work to verify of test results and to investigate the non-linear behavior of failure modes such as web-post buckling, shear buckling and vierendeel bending of beams.

Keywords: steel structures, web-expanded beams, angelina beam, optimum design, failure modes, finite element analysis

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Authors: Jaballah Jamil

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KLD (Peter Kinder, Steve Lydenberg and Amy Domini) research & analytics is an independent intermediary of social performance information that adopts an investor-pay model. KLD rating agency does not have an explicit monitoring on the rated firm which suggests that KLD ratings may not include private informations. Moreover, the incapacity of KLD to predict accurately the extra-financial rating of Enron casts doubt on the reliability of KLD ratings. Therefore, we first investigate whether KLD ratings affect investors' perception by studying the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances. Second, we study the impact of the Enron scandal on investors' perception of KLD rating changes by comparing the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances before and after the failure of Enron. We propose an empirical study that relates a number of equally-weighted portfolios returns, excess stock returns and book-to-market ratio to different dimensions of KLD social responsibility ratings. We first find that over the last two decades KLD rating changes influence significantly and negatively stock returns and book-to-market ratio of rated firms. This finding suggests that a raise in corporate social responsibility rating lowers the firm's risk. Second, to assess the Enron scandal's effect on the perception of KLD ratings, we compare the effect of KLD rating changes before and after the Enron scandal. We find that after the Enron scandal this significant effect disappears. This finding supports the view that the Enron scandal annihilates the KLD's effect on Socially Responsible Investors. Therefore, our findings may question results of recent studies that use KLD ratings as a proxy for Corporate Social Responsibility behavior.

Keywords: KLD social rating agency, investors' perception, investment decision, financial performance

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Authors: Teng lin, Li Yuxing, Han Hui, Zhao Pengfei, Zhang Datong

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With the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the flow assurance of CO2 transportation becomes more important, particularly for supercritical CO2 pipelines. The relieving system using the choke valve is applied to control the pressure in CO2 pipeline. However, the temperature of fluid would drop rapidly because of Joule-Thomson cooling (JTC), which may cause solid CO2 form and block the pipe. In this paper, a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model, using the modified Lagrangian method, Reynold's Stress Transport model (RSM) for turbulence and stochastic tracking model (STM) for particle trajectory, was developed to predict the deposition characteristic of solid carbon dioxide. The model predictions were in good agreement with the experiment data published in the literature. It can be observed that the particle distribution affected the deposition behavior. In the region of the sudden expansion, the smaller particles accumulated tightly on the wall were dominant for pipe blockage. On the contrary, the size of solid CO2 particles deposited near the outlet usually was bigger and the stacked structure was looser. According to the calculation results, the movement of the particles can be regarded as the main four types: turbulent motion close to the sudden expansion structure, balanced motion at sudden expansion-middle region, inertial motion near the outlet and the escape. Furthermore the particle deposits accumulated primarily in the sudden expansion region, reattachment region and outlet region because of the four type of motion. Also the Stokes number had an effect on the deposition ratio and it is recommended for Stokes number to avoid 3-8St.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, carbon dioxide pipeline, gas-particle flow, deposition

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Authors: Faisal Islam, J. Ramkumar

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The applications of composite materials in aerospace, sporting and automotive industries need high quality machined surfaces and dimensional accuracy. Some studies have been done to understand the fiber failure mechanisms encountered during milling machining of CFRP composites but none are capable of explaining the exact nature of the orientation-based fiber failure mechanisms encountered in the milling machining process. The objective of this work is to gain a better understanding of the orientation-based fiber failure mechanisms occurring on the slot edges during CFRP milling machining processes. The occurrence of damage is predicted by a schematic explanation based on the mechanisms of material removal which in turn depends upon fiber cutting angles. A geometric model based on fiber cutting angle and fiber orientation angle is proposed that defines the critical and safe zone during machining and predicts the occurrence of delamination. Milling machining experiments were performed on composite samples of varying fiber orientations to verify the proposed theory. Mean fiber pulled out length was measured from the microscopic images of the damaged area to quantify the amount of damage produced. By observing the damage occurring for different fiber orientation angles and fiber cutting angles for up-milling and down-milling edges and correlating it with the material removal mechanisms as described earlier, it can be concluded that the damage/delamination mainly depends on the portion of the fiber cutting angles that lies within the critical cutting angle zone.

Keywords: unidirectional composites, milling, machining damage, delamination, carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRPs)

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Authors: Milad Abbasi

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Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures are increasingly being utilized in the automotive industry due to their lightweight and specific energy absorption capabilities. Although it is impossible to predict composite mechanical properties directly using theoretical methods, various research has been conducted so far in the literature for accurate simulation of CFRP structures' energy-absorbing behavior. In this research, axial compression experiments were carried out on hand lay-up unidirectional CFRP composite tubes. The fabrication method allowed the authors to extract the material properties of the CFRPs using ASTM D3039, D3410, and D3518 standards. A neural network machine learning algorithm was then utilized to build a robust prediction model to forecast the axial compressive properties of CFRP tubes while reducing high-cost experimental efforts. The predicted results have been compared with the experimental outcomes in terms of load-carrying capacity and energy absorption capability. The results showed high accuracy and precision in the prediction of the energy-absorption capacity of the CFRP tubes. This research also demonstrates the effectiveness and challenges of machine learning techniques in the robust simulation of composites' energy-absorption behavior. Interestingly, the proposed method considerably condensed numerical and experimental efforts in the simulation and calibration of CFRP composite tubes subjected to compressive loading.

Keywords: CFRP composite tubes, energy absorption, crushing behavior, machine learning, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Stevens Phaphadi Mamorobela

Abstract:

The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the use of social media in SMEs to stay abreast with information about the latest news and developments and to predict the future world of business. The national shutdown regulations for curbing the spread of the Covid-19 virus resulted in SMEs having to distribute large volumes of information through social media platforms to collaborate and conduct business remotely. How much of the information shared on social media is used by SMEs as significant knowledge for economic rent is yet to be known. This study aims to investigate the facilitating conditions that enable SMEs’ intention to use social media as a knowledge-sharing platform to create economic rent and to cope with the Covid-19 challenges. A qualitative research approach was applied where semi-structured interviews were conducted with 13 SME owners located in the Gauteng province in South Africa to identify and explain the facilitating conditions of SMEs towards their intention to use social media as a knowledge-sharing tool in the Covid-19 era. The study discovered that the national lockdown regulations towards curbing the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic had compelled SMEs to adopt digital technologies that enabled them to quickly transform their business processes to cope with the challenges of the pandemic. The facilitating conditions, like access to high bandwidth internet coverage in the Gauteng region, enable SMEs to have strong intentions to use social media to distribute content and to reach out to their target market. However, the content is shared informally using diverse social media platforms without any guidelines for transforming content into rent-yielding knowledge.

Keywords: facilitating conditions, knowledge sharing, social media, intention to use, SME

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Guoyang Fu, Wei Yang

Abstract:

A significant portion of current water networks is made of cast iron pipes. Due to aging and deterioration with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism, the failure rate of cast iron pipes is very high. Although considerable research has been carried out in the past few decades, most are on the effect of corrosion on the structural capacity of pipes using strength theory as the failure criterion. This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for the assessment of corrosion affected cast iron pipe cracking failures. A nonlinear limit state function taking into account all three fracture modes is proposed for brittle metal pipes with mixed mode fracture. A stochastic model of the load effect is developed, and time-dependent reliability method is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. A case study is carried out using the proposed methodology, followed by sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of the random variables on the probability of failure. It has been found that the larger the inclination angle or the Mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is. It has also been found that the multiplying and exponential coefficients k and n in the power law corrosion model and the internal pressure have the most influence on the probability of failure for cast iron pipes. The methodology presented in this paper can assist pipe engineers and asset managers in developing a risk-informed and cost-effective strategy for better management of corrosion-affected pipelines.

Keywords: corrosion, inclined surface cracks, pressurized cast iron pipes, stress intensity

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Emad A. Mohammed

Abstract:

The concept of hydraulic flow units (HFU) has been used for decades in the petroleum industry to improve the prediction of permeability. This concept is strongly related to the flow zone indicator (FZI) which is a function of the reservoir rock quality index (RQI). Both indices are based on reservoir porosity and permeability of core samples. It is assumed that core samples with similar FZI values belong to the same HFU. Thus, after dividing the porosity-permeability data based on the HFU, transformations can be done in order to estimate the permeability from the porosity. The conventional practice is to use the power law transformation using conventional HFU where percentage of error is considerably high. In this paper, neural network technique is employed as a soft computing transformation method to predict permeability instead of power law method to avoid higher percentage of error. This technique is based on HFU identification where Amaefule et al. (1993) method is utilized. In this regard, Kozeny and Carman (K–C) model, and modified K–C model by Hasan and Hossain (2011) are employed. A comparison is made between the two transformation techniques for the two porosity-permeability models. Results show that the modified K-C model helps in getting better results with lower percentage of error in predicting permeability. The results also show that the use of artificial intelligence techniques give more accurate prediction than power law method. This study was conducted on a heterogeneous complex carbonate reservoir in Oman. Data were collected from seven wells to obtain the permeability correlations for the whole field. The findings of this study will help in getting better estimation of permeability of a complex reservoir.

Keywords: permeability, hydraulic flow units, artificial intelligence, correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida

Abstract:

Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.

Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Takwiir Tahriim Khan, Tausif Khalid, Mohammad Redwan Ahamed, Md Soebur Rahman

Abstract:

The mutual connection in joints has a significant impact on the safe and cost-effective design of steel structures. Generally, the end plates are welded at the end of the beam and columns are bolted with the end plates. Thus, the moment will be transferred at the interface, which is a critical segment at the connection. 3-D Finite Element Models (FEM) has been developed using ABAQUS 2017 software to predict the yield capacity of the end plate connections. The parameters used in this study are the depth, width, and thickness of the end plate, dimensions of the bolt, sectional and material properties of beams and columns. The influence width, depth, and thicknesses of the end plate connection on yield capacity were investigated through parametric studies. The results showed that, for increasing plate thickness from 0.3 inch to 0.8 inch by an increment of 0.1 inch the yield capacity increased by 2.85% on average, for decreasing the end plate depth from 13 inch to 11 inch the yield capacity increased by 25.4 %, and for decreasing the end plate width from 6.5 inch to 5.75 inch the yield capacity increased by 35.4%. Variation in yield capacity was also found by changing the beam and column section. Besides, the numerical results showed a good agreement with published experimental literature with an average variation of less than 8.3 % in yield capacity. So the study allows for a more effective combination of beam, column, and end plate dimensions.

Keywords: steel beam-column joints, finite element analysis, yield moment capacity, parametric study, ABAQUS, bolted joints, flush end plates, moment vs rotation curves

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

Abstract:

Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Aid Abdelkrim

Abstract:

A method of fatigue damage accumulation based upon application of energy parameters of the fatigue process is proposed in the paper. Using this model is simple, it has no parameter to be determined, it requires only the knowledge of the curve W–N (W: strain energy density N: number of cycles at failure) determined from the experimental Wöhler curve. To examine the performance of nonlinear models proposed in the estimation of fatigue damage and fatigue life of components under random loading, a batch of specimens made of 6082 T 6 aluminium alloy has been studied and some of the results are reported in the present paper. The paper describes an algorithm and suggests a fatigue cumulative damage model, especially when random loading is considered. This work contains the results of uni-axial random load fatigue tests with different mean and amplitude values performed on 6082T6 aluminium alloy specimens. The proposed model has been formulated to take into account the damage evolution at different load levels and it allows the effect of the loading sequence to be included by means of a recurrence formula derived for multilevel loading, considering complex load sequences. It is concluded that a ‘damaged stress interaction damage rule’ proposed here allows a better fatigue damage prediction than the widely used Palmgren–Miner rule, and a formula derived in random fatigue could be used to predict the fatigue damage and fatigue lifetime very easily. The results obtained by the model are compared with the experimental results and those calculated by the most fatigue damage model used in fatigue (Miner’s model). The comparison shows that the proposed model, presents a good estimation of the experimental results. Moreover, the error is minimized in comparison to the Miner’s model.

Keywords: damage accumulation, energy model, damage indicator, variable loading, random loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 381