Search results for: failure prediction

Authors: Minjuan Sun

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Ever since the late 1990s, China has experienced explosive growth in consumer lending, especially in short-term consumer loans, among which, the growth rate of non-bank lending has surpassed bank lending due to the development in financial technology. On the other hand, China does not have a universal credit scoring and registration system that can guide lenders during the processes of credit evaluation and risk control, for example, an individual’s bank credit records are not available for online lenders to see and vice versa. Given this context, the purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, we explore if and how alternative digital footprint data can be utilized to assess borrower’s creditworthiness. Then, we perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem of credit default prediction. Finally, we analyze, from an institutional point of view, the necessity of establishing a viable and nationally universal credit registration and scoring system utilizing online digital footprints, so that more people in China can have better access to the consumption loan market. Two different types of digital footprint data are utilized to match with bank’s loan default records. Each separately captures distinct dimensions of a person’s characteristics, such as his shopping patterns and certain aspects of his personality or inferred demographics revealed by social media features like profile image and nickname. We find both datasets can generate either acceptable or excellent prediction results, and different types of data tend to complement each other to get better performances. Typically, the traditional types of data banks normally use like income, occupation, and credit history, update over longer cycles, hence they can’t reflect more immediate changes, like the financial status changes caused by the business crisis; whereas digital footprints can update daily, weekly, or monthly, thus capable of providing a more comprehensive profile of the borrower’s credit capabilities and risks. From the empirical and quantitative examination, we believe digital footprints can become an alternative information source for creditworthiness assessment, because of their near-universal data coverage, and because they can by and large resolve the "thin-file" issue, due to the fact that digital footprints come in much larger volume and higher frequency.

Keywords: credit score, digital footprint, Fintech, machine learning

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Authors: Pranjali Sharma, Swati Neogi

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Composite pressure vessels are low weight structures mainly used in a variety of applications such as automobiles, aeronautics and chemical engineering. Fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) composite materials offer the simplicity of design and use, high fuel storage capacity, rapid refueling capability, excellent shelf life, minimal infrastructure impact, high safety due to the inherent strength of the pressure vessel, and little to no development risk. Apart from these preliminary merits, the subsidized weight of composite vessels over metallic cylinders act as the biggest asset to the automotive industry, increasing the fuel efficiency. The result is a lightweight, flexible, non-explosive, and non-fragmenting pressure vessel that can be tailor-made to attune with specific applications. The winding pattern of the composite over-wrap is a primary focus while designing a pressure vessel. The critical stresses in the system depend on the thickness, angle and sequence of the composite layers. The composite over-wrap is wound over a plastic liner, whose geometry can be varied for the ease of winding. In the present study, we aim to optimize the FRP vessel geometry that provides an ease in winding and also aids in weight reduction for enhancing the vessel performance. Finite element analysis is used to study the effect of dome geometry, yielding a design with maximum value of burst pressure and least value of vessel weight. The stress and strain analysis of different dome ends along with the cylindrical portion is carried out in ANSYS 19.2. The failure is predicted using different failure theories like Tsai-Wu theory, Tsai-Hill theory and Maximum stress theory. Corresponding to a given winding sequence, the optimum dome geometry is determined for a fixed internal pressure to identify the theoretical value of burst pressure. Finally, this geometry is used to decrease the number of layers to reach the set value of safety in accordance with the available safety standards. This results in decrease in the weight of the composite over-wrap and manufacturing cost of the pressure vessel. An improvement in the overall weight performance of the pressure vessel gives higher fuel efficiency for its use in automobile applications.

Keywords: Compressed Gas Storage, Dome geometry, Theoretical Analysis, Type-4 Composite Pressure Vessel, Improvement in Vessel Weight Performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: John-Nelson Ekumah, Selorm Yao-Say Solomon Adade, Mingming Zhong, Yufan Sun, Qiufang Liang, Muhammad Safiullah Virk, Xorlali Nunekpeku, Nana Adwoa Nkuma Johnson, Bridget Ama Kwadzokpui, Xiaofeng Ren

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Enhancing starch gel strength and stability is crucial. However, traditional gel property assessment methods are destructive, time-consuming and resource intensive. Thus, understanding ethanol treatment effects on kudzu starch gel strength and developing a rapid, nondestructive gel strength assessment method is essential for optimizing the treatment process and ensuring product quality consistency. This study investigated the effects of different ethanol concentrations on the microstructure of kudzu starch gels using a comprehensive microstructural analysis. We also developed a nondestructive method for predicting gel strength and classifying treatment levels using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, and advanced data analytics. Scanning electron microscopy revealed progressive network densification and pore collapse with increasing ethanol concentration, correlating with enhanced mechanical properties. NIR spectroscopy, combined with various variable selection methods (CARS, GA, and UVE) and modeling algorithms (PLS, SVM, and ELM), was employed to develop predictive models for gel strength. The UVE-SVM model demonstrated exceptional performance, with the highest R² values (Rc = 0.9786, Rp = 0.9688) and lowest error rates (RMSEC = 6.1340, RMSEP = 6.0283). Pattern recognition algorithms (PCA, LDA, and KNN) successfully classified gels based on ethanol treatment levels, achieving near-perfect accuracy. This integrated approach provided a multiscale perspective on ethanol-induced starch gel modification, from molecular interactions to macroscopic properties. Our findings demonstrate the potential of NIR spectroscopy, coupled with advanced data analysis, as a powerful tool for rapid, nondestructive quality assessment in starch gel production. This study contributes significantly to the understanding of starch modification processes and opens new avenues for research and industrial applications in food science, pharmaceuticals, and biomaterials

Keywords: kudzu starch gel, near-infrared spectroscopy, gel strength prediction, support vector machine (SVM), pattern recognition algorithms, ethanol treatment

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Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

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Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

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Authors: Vaibhavi Birle

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Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome is a rare clinic-radiological syndrome associated with acute changes in blood pressure during pregnancy. It is characterized symptomatically by headache, seizures, altered mental status, and visual blurring with radiological changes of white matter (vasogenic oedema) affecting the posterior occipital and parietal lobes of the brain. It is being increasingly recognized due to increased institutional deliveries and advances in imaging particularly magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In spite of the increasing diagnosis the prediction of PRES and patient factors affecting susceptibility is still not clear. Hence, we conducted the retrospective study to analyse the factors associated with PRES at our tertiary centre.

Keywords: pres syndrome, eclampsia, maternal outcome, fetal outcome

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Authors: Japhet N. Mwambusi

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High tropical forests deforestation for solid wood furniture industry is among of climate change contributing agents. This pressure indirectly is caused by furniture joints failure due to poor gluing technology based on improper use of different glues to different wood species which lead to low quality and weak wood-glue joints. This study was carried in order to run performance tests of wood glues on different wood species used in wood workshops: Morogoro Tanzania whereby three popular wood species of C. lusitanica, T. glandis and E. maidenii were tested against five glues of Woodfix, Bullbond, Ponal, Fevicol and Coral found in the market. The findings were necessary on developing a guideline for proper glue selection for a particular wood species joining. Random sampling was employed to interview carpenters while conducting a survey on the background of carpenters like their education level and to determine factors that influence their glues choice. Monsanto Tensiometer was used to determine bonding strength of identified wood glues to different wood species in use under British Standard of testing wood shear strength (BS EN 205) procedures. Data obtained from interviewing carpenters were analyzed through Statistical Package of Social Science software (SPSS) to allow the comparison of different data while laboratory data were compiled, related and compared by the use of MS Excel worksheet software as well as Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Results revealed that among all five wood glues tested in the laboratory to three different wood species, Coral performed much better with the average shear strength 4.18 N/mm², 3.23 N/mm² and 5.42 N/mm² for Cypress, Teak and Eucalyptus respectively. This displays that for a strong joint to be formed to all tree wood species for soft wood and hard wood, Coral has a first priority in use. The developed table of guideline from this research can be useful to carpenters on proper glue selection to a particular wood species so as to meet glue-bond strength. This will secure furniture market as well as reduce pressure to the forests for furniture production because of the strong existing furniture due to their strong joints. Indeed, this can be a good strategy on reducing climate change speed in tropics which result from high deforestation of trees for furniture production.

Keywords: climate change, deforestation, gluing technology, joint failure, wood-glue, wood species

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Authors: Ruchika Goyal, Ashwani Kumar, Sandeep Jain

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The experimental data for anticancer potential of curcumin nanoparticles was calculated by means of eclectic data. The optimal descriptors were examined using Monte Carlo method based CORAL SEA software. The statistical quality of the model is following: n = 14, R² = 0.6809, Q² = 0.5943, s = 0.175, MAE = 0.114, F = 26 (sub-training set), n =5, R²= 0.9529, Q² = 0.7982, s = 0.086, MAE = 0.068, F = 61, Av Rm² = 0.7601, ∆R²m = 0.0840, k = 0.9856 and kk = 1.0146 (test set) and n = 5, R² = 0.6075 (validation set). This data can be used to build predictive QSAR models for anticancer activity.

Keywords: anticancer potential, curcumin, model, nanoparticles, optimal descriptors, QSAR

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Authors: Sait Ozsoy, Asude Gokmen, Mehtap Yondem, Hanife A. Alkan, Gulnaz T. Javan

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Deep neck infection often develops due to upper respiratory tract and odontogenic infections. Gastrointestinal System perforation can occur for many reasons and is in need of the early diagnosis and prompt surgical treatment. In both cases late or incorrect diagnosis may lead to increase morbidity and high mortality. A patient with a diagnosis of deep neck abscess died while under treatment due to sepsis and multiple organ failure. Autopsy finding showed duodenal ulcer and this is reported in the literature.

Keywords: peptic ulcer perforation, peritonitis, retropharyngeal abscess, sepsis

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Authors: Kweon Oh-Sang, Kim Heung-Youl

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Estimating the engineering properties of fires is important to be prepared for the complex and various fire risks of large-scale structures such as super-tall buildings, large stadiums, and multi-purpose structures. In this study, a mock-up of a compartment which was 2.4(L) x 3.6 (W) x 2.4 (H) meter in dimensions was fabricated at the 10MW LSC (Large Scale Calorimeter) and combustible office supplies were placed in the compartment for a real-scale fire test. Maximum heat release rate was 4.1 MW and total energy release obtained through the application of t2 fire growth rate was 6705.9 MJ.

Keywords: fire growth, fire experiment, t2 curve, large scale calorimeter

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Authors: Fathi Alwafie

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In this paper we present the simulation of the propagation characteristics of the picocellular propagation channel environment. The first aim has been to find a correct description of the environment for received wave. The result of the first investigations is that the environment of the indoor wave significantly changes as we change the electric parameters of material constructions. A modified 3D ray tracing image method tool has been utilized for the coverage prediction. A detailed analysis of the dependence of the indoor wave on the wide-band characteristics of the channel: Root Mean Square (RMS) delay spread characteristics and mean excess delay, is also investigated.

Keywords: propagation, ray tracing, network, mobile computing

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Authors: Monika Dmitrzak-Weglarz, Aleksandra Rajewska-Rager, Maria Skibinska, Natalia Lepczynska, Piotr Sibilski, Joanna Pawlak, Pawel Kapelski, Joanna Hauser

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Epidermal growth factor (EGF) is a well-known neurotrophic factor that involves in neuronal growth and synaptic plasticity. The proteomic research provided in order to identify novel candidate biological markers for mood disorders focused on elevated EGF serum level in patients during depression episode. However, the EGF association with mood disorder spectrum among adolescents and young adults has not been studied extensively. In this study, we aim to investigate the serum levels of EGF in adolescents and young adults during hypo/manic, depressive episodes and in remission compared to healthy control group. In our study, we involved 80 patients aged 12-24 years in 2-year follow-up study with a primary diagnosis of mood disorder spectrum, and 35 healthy volunteers matched by age and gender. Diagnoses were established according to DSM-IV-TR criteria using structured clinical interviews: K-SADS for child and adolescents, and SCID for young adults. Clinical and biological evaluations were made at baseline and euthymic mood (at 3th or 6th month of treatment and after 1 and 2 years). The Young Mania Rating Scale and Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression were used for assessment. The study protocols were approved by the relevant ethics committee. Serum protein concentration was determined by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA) method. Human EGF (cat. no DY 236) DuoSet ELISA kit was used (R&D Systems). Serum EGF levels were analysed with following variables: age, age under 18 and above 18 years old, sex, family history of affective disorders, drug-free vs. medicated. Shapiro-Wilk test was used to test the normality of the data. The homogeneity of variance was calculated with Levene’s test. EGF levels showed non-normal distribution and the homogeneity of variance was violated. Non-parametric tests: Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskall-Wallis ANOVA, Friedman’s ANOVA, Wilcoxon signed rank test, Spearman correlation coefficient was applied in the analyses The statistical significance level was set at p<0.05. Elevated EGF level at baseline (p=0.001) and at month 24 (p=0.02) was detected in study subjects compared with controls. Increased EGF level in women at month 12 (p=0.02) compared to men in study group have been observed. Using Wilcoxon signed rank test differences in EGF levels were detected: decrease from baseline to month 3 (p=0.014) and increase comparing: month 3 vs. 24 (p=0.013); month 6 vs. 12 (p=0.021) and vs. 24 (p=0.008). EGF level at baseline was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurrence at 24 months. EGF level at 24 months was positively correlated with depression and mania occurrence at 12 months. No other correlations of EGF levels with clinical and demographical variables have been detected. The findings of the present study indicate that EGF serum level is significantly elevated in the study group of patients compared to the controls. We also observed fluctuations in EGF levels during two years of disease observation. EGF seems to be useful as an early marker for prediction of diagnosis, course of illness and treatment response in young patients during first episode od mood disorders, which requires further investigation. Grant was founded by National Science Center in Poland no 2011/03/D/NZ5/06146.

Keywords: biological marker, epidermal growth factor, mood disorders, prediction

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: Prakash M.N, Mahesh G, Muhammed Rafi K.M, Shiju P. Nair

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Introduction: In launch vehicle missions, Reaction Control thrusters are being used for the three-axis stabilization of the vehicle during the coasting phases. A pressure-fed propulsion system is used for the operation of these thrusters due to its less complexity. In liquid stages, these thrusters are designed to draw propellant from the same tank used for the main propulsion system. So in order to regulate the propellant flow rates of these thrusters, flow control orifices are used in feed lines. These orifices are calibrated separately as per the flow rate requirement of individual thrusters for the nominal operating conditions. In some missions, it was observed that the thrusters were operated at higher thrust than nominal. This point was addressed through a series of cold flow and hot tests carried out in-ground and this paper elaborates the details of the same. Discussion: In order to find out the exact reason for this phenomenon, two flight configuration thrusters were identified and hot tested in the ground with calibrated orifices and feed lines. During these tests, the chamber pressure, which is directly proportional to the thrust, is measured. In both cases, chamber pressures higher than the nominal by 0.32bar to 0.7bar were recorded. The increase in chamber pressure is due to an increase in the oxidizer flow rate of both the thrusters. Upon further investigation, it is observed that the calibration of the feed line is done with ambient pressure downstream. But in actual flight conditions, the orifices will be subjected to operate with 10 to 11bar pressure downstream. Due to this higher downstream pressure, the flow through the orifices increases and thereby, the thrusters operate with higher chamber pressure values. Conclusion: As part of further investigatory tests, two numbers of fresh thrusters were realized. Orifice tuning of these thrusters was carried out in three different ways. In the first trial, the orifice tuning was done by simulating 1bar pressure downstream. The second trial was done with the injector assembled downstream. In the third trial, the downstream pressure equal to the flight injection pressure was simulated downstream. Using these calibrated orifices, hot tests were carried out in simulated vacuum conditions. Chamber pressure and flow rate values were exactly matching with the prediction for the second and third trials. But for the first trial, the chamber pressure values obtained in the hot test were more than the prediction. This clearly shows that the flow is detached in the 1st trial and attached for the 2nd & 3rd trials. Hence, the error in tuning the flow control orifices is pinpointed as the reason for this higher chamber pressure observed in flight.

Keywords: reaction control thruster, propellent, orifice, chamber pressure

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Authors: Afri Ananda Nugroho

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Privatization is one of the public policies closely related to the role of government in the economy due to the failure of the centralized system in the communist countries. This paper will discuss the basic issues of privatization as a global trend, the purpose of privatization, implementation, and impact on the success of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) in Indonesia. The analysis is done by looking at some important issues about the privatization problem, and some public policies are being applied such as why and how privatization is necessary and what impact it has. This paper also discusses the implications for top leaders of State-Owned Enterprises.

Keywords: privatization, state-owned enterprises, Indonesia, public policy

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: Vince Scolaro, Lakshman Prasad, Ted Polley, Sanjivan Deshpande

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The LH Ford Bridge, built in the 1960s, comprises 28 spans, is 800m long and crosses the Macquarie River at Dubbo, NSW. The main bridge spans comprise three spans with a 63m center span (25m drop-in section) supported by halving joints from the main cantilevers and back spans of 28m. The main bridge spans were built using complex construction staging (the first of this type in NSW). They comprise twin precast boxes, in-situ reinforced concrete infills, and cantilevered outriggers stressed both longitudinally and transversely. Since construction, this bridge has undergone significantly increased design vehicle loads and showed signs of excessive shrinkage and creep leading to significant sagging of the centre span with evidence of previous failure and remediation of the halving joints. A comprehensive load rating assessment was undertaken taking account of the original complex construction staging. Deficiencies identified included inadequate capacity of the halving joints, failure of the bearings at the halving joints, inadequate shear capacity of the girder webs and inadequate girder flexural capacity to carry B-Double design vehicles. A unique strengthening system comprising two new piers (under each of the halving joints), new bearings and installation of external prestressing to the soffit of both drop-in-span and back spans was adopted. A portion of the dead load had to be transferred from the superstructure to the new piers via innovative soft/stiff bearing combinations to reduce new locked-in stresses resulting from the new pier supports. Significant temporary works comprised a precast concrete shell beam forming the pile cap/pier structure, addition of a temporary suspended scaffold (without overstressing the existing superstructure) and the installation of jacking stays for new bearing top and bottom plates. This paper presents how this existing historic and socially important bridge was strengthened and updated to increase its design life without the need for replacement.

Keywords: strengthening, creep, construction, box girder

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Authors: Ahmed Jedidi, Mesfer Mohammed Alshamrani, Alwi Mohammad A. Bamhdi

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Optical performance monitoring and optical network management are essential in building a reliable, high-capacity, and service-differentiation enabled all-optical network. One of the serious problems in this network is the fact that optical crosstalk is additive, and thus the aggregate effect of crosstalk over a whole AON may be more nefarious than a single point of crosstalk. As results, we note a huge degradation of the Quality of Service (QoS) in our network. For that, it is necessary to identify and monitor the impairments in whole network. In this way, this paper presents new system to identify and monitor crosstalk in AONs in real-time fashion. particular, it proposes a new technique to manage intra-crosstalk in objective to relax QoS of the network.

Keywords: all-optical networks, optical crosstalk, optical cross-connect, crosstalk, monitoring crosstalk

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Authors: Chihab Benmoussa

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Could the Work System Approach (WSA) function as a framework for designing high-impact knowledge mobilization systems? This paper put forward arguments in favor of the applicability of WSA for knowledge mobilization design based on evidences from a practical research. Normative approaches for practitioners are highly needed especially in the field of knowledge management (KM), given the abysmal rate of disappointment and failure of KM projects. The paper contrasts knowledge management and knowledge mobilization, presents the WSA and showed how the WSA’s concepts and ideas fit with the approach adopted by a multinational company in designing a successful knowledge mobilization initiative.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge mobilizations, work system method

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Authors: Reham Hajomer, Ikram Elsiddig, Amna Hamad

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Lepidium sativum (Garden Cress) belonging to Brassicaceae family is an annual herb locally known as El-rshad. In Ayurveda it is an important medicinal plant, traditionally used for the treatment of jaundice, liver problems, spleen diseases, gastrointestinal disorders, menstrual problems, fracture, arthritis, inflammatory conditions and for treatment of hypothyroidism. Hypothyroidism is a condition in which the thyroid gland does not produce enough thyroid hormones (Triiodithyronine T3 and Thyroxine T4) which are commonly caused by iodine deficiency. It’s divided into primary and secondary hypothyroidism, the primary caused by failure of thyroid function and secondary due to the failure of adequate thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) secretion from the pituitary gland or thyroid -releasing hormone (TRH) from the hypothalamus. The disease is most common in women over age 60. The objective regarding this study is to know whether Lepidium sativum would affect the level of thyroid hormones. The extract was prepared with 96% ethanol using Soxhlet apparatus. The anti-hypothyroidism activity was tested by using thirty male Wistar rats weighing (100-140 g) were used in the experiment. They were grouping into five groups, Group 1: Normal group= Administered only distilled water. Then 10 mg/kg Propylthiouracil was added to the drinking water of all other groups to induce hypothyroidism. Group 2: Negative control without any treatment; Group 3: Test group= treated with oral administration of 500mg/kg extract; Group 4: treated with oral administration of 250mg/kg of the extract; Group 5: Standard group (positive control) = treated with intraperitoneal Levothyroxine. All rats were incubated for 20 days at animal house with room temperature of proper ventilation provided with standard diet. The result show that the Lepidium sativum extract was found to increases the T3 and T4 in the propylthiouracil induced rats with values (0.29 ng/dl T3 and 0.57 U T4) for the 500mg/kg and (0.27 ng/dl T3 and 0.517 U T4) for the 250mg/kg in comparison with standard with values (0.241 ng/dl T3 and 0.516 U T4) so that Lepidium sativum can be stimulatory to thyroid function and possess significant anti-hypothyroidism effect with p-values ranges from (0.000006*-0.893472). In conclusion, from results obtained, Lepidium sativum plant extract was found to posses anti-hypothyroidism effects so its act as an agent that stimulates thyroid hormone secretion.

Keywords: anti-hypothyroidism, extract, lepidium, sativum

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Authors: Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martinez, Arturo Galvan, Xavier Chavez Cardenas, Hiram Arroyo

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Several methods have been utilized to study the prediction of cracking of concrete structural under loading. The finite element analysis is an alternative that shows good results. The aim of this work was the numerical study of the width crack in reinforced concrete beams with dapped ends, these are frequently found in bridge girders and precast concrete construction. Properly restricting cracking is an important aspect of the design in dapped ends, it has been observed that the cracks that exceed the allowable widths are unacceptable in an aggressive environment for reinforcing steel. For simulating the crack width, the discrete crack approach was considered by means of a Cohesive Zone (CZM) Model using a function to represent the crack opening. Two cases of dapped-end were constructed and tested in the laboratory of Structures and Materials of Engineering Institute of UNAM. The first case considers a reinforcement based on hangers as well as on vertical and horizontal ring, the second case considers 50% of the vertical stirrups in the dapped end to the main part of the beam were replaced by an equivalent area (vertically projected) of diagonal bars under. The loading protocol consisted on applying symmetrical loading to reach the service load. The models were performed using the software package ANSYS v. 16.2. The concrete structure was modeled using three-dimensional solid elements SOLID65 capable of cracking in tension and crushing in compression. Drucker-Prager yield surface was used to include the plastic deformations. The reinforcement was introduced with smeared approach. Interface delamination was modeled by traditional fracture mechanics methods such as the nodal release technique adopting softening relationships between tractions and the separations, which in turn introduce a critical fracture energy that is also the energy required to break apart the interface surfaces. This technique is called CZM. The interface surfaces of the materials are represented by a contact elements Surface-to-Surface (CONTA173) with bonded (initial contact). The Mode I dominated bilinear CZM model assumes that the separation of the material interface is dominated by the displacement jump normal to the interface. Furthermore, the opening crack was taken into consideration according to the maximum normal contact stress, the contact gap at the completion of debonding, and the maximum equivalent tangential contact stress. The contact elements were placed in the crack re-entrant corner. To validate the proposed approach, the results obtained with the previous procedure are compared with experimental test. A good correlation between the experimental and numerical Load-Displacement curves was presented, the numerical models also allowed to obtain the load-crack width curves. In these two cases, the proposed model confirms the capability of predicting the maximum crack width, with an error of ± 30 %. Finally, the orientation of the crack is a fundamental for the prediction of crack width. The results regarding the crack width can be considered as good from the practical point view. Load-Displacement curve of the test and the location of the crack were able to obtain favorable results.

Keywords: cohesive zone model, dapped-end beams, discrete crack approach, finite element analysis

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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Authors: Nataliya V. Dolgushina, Elena A. Gorodnova, Olga S. Beznoshenco, Andrey Yu Romanov, Irina V. Menzhinskaya, Lyubov V. Krechetova, Gennady T. Suchich

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In patients with COVID-19, generalized hypercoagulability can lead to the development of severe coagulopathy. This event is accompanied by the development of a pronounced inflammatory reaction. The observational prospective study included 39 patients with mild COVID-19 and 102 patients with moderate and severe COVID-19. Patients were then stratified into groups depending on the risk of venous thromboembolism. vWF to ADAMTS-13 concentrations and activity ratios were significantly higher in patients with a high venous thromboembolism risks in patients with moderate and severe forms COVID-19.

Keywords: ADAMTS-13, COVID-19, hypercoagulation, thrombosis, von Willebrand factor

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Authors: Hussain K. Chaiel

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The development in the field of the digital signal processing (DSP) and the microelectronics technology reduces the complexity of the iterative algorithms that need large number of arithmetic operations. Virtex-Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) are programmable silicon foundations which offer an important solution for addressing the needs of high performance DSP designer. In this work, Virtex-7 FPGA technology is used to implement an iterative algorithm to estimate the earthquake location. Simulation results show that an implementation based on block RAMB36E1 and DSP48E1 slices of Virtex-7 type reduces the number of cycles of the clock frequency. This enables the algorithm to be used for earthquake prediction.

Keywords: DSP, earthquake, FPGA, iterative algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Chung-Ming Lo, Chung-Chien Lee

Abstract:

In many countries, the lifetime prevalence of shoulder pain is up to 70%. In America, the health care system spends 7 billion per year about the healthy issues of shoulder pain. With respect to the origin, up to 70% of shoulder pain is attributed to rotator cuff lesions This study proposed a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system to assist radiologists classifying rotator cuff lesions with less operator dependence. Quantitative features were extracted from the shoulder ultrasound images acquired using an ALOKA alpha-6 US scanner (Hitachi-Aloka Medical, Tokyo, Japan) with linear array probe (scan width: 36mm) ranging from 5 to 13 MHz. During examination, the postures of the examined patients are standard sitting position and are followed by the regular routine. After acquisition, the shoulder US images were drawn out from the scanner and stored as 8-bit images with pixel value ranging from 0 to 255. Upon the sonographic appearance, the boundary of each lesion was delineated by a physician to indicate the specific pattern for analysis. The three lesion categories for classification were composed of 20 cases of tendon inflammation, 18 cases of calcific tendonitis, and 18 cases of supraspinatus tear. For each lesion, second-order statistics were quantified in the feature extraction. The second-order statistics were the texture features describing the correlations between adjacent pixels in a lesion. Because echogenicity patterns were expressed via grey-scale. The grey-scale co-occurrence matrixes with four angles of adjacent pixels were used. The texture metrics included the mean and standard deviation of energy, entropy, correlation, inverse different moment, inertia, cluster shade, cluster prominence, and Haralick correlation. Then, the quantitative features were combined in a multinomial logistic regression classifier to generate a prediction model of rotator cuff lesions. Multinomial logistic regression classifier is widely used in the classification of more than two categories such as the three lesion types used in this study. In the classifier, backward elimination was used to select a feature subset which is the most relevant. They were selected from the trained classifier with the lowest error rate. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to evaluate the performance of the classifier. Each case was left out of the total cases and used to test the trained result by the remaining cases. According to the physician’s assessment, the performance of the proposed CAD system was shown by the accuracy. As a result, the proposed system achieved an accuracy of 86%. A CAD system based on the statistical texture features to interpret echogenicity values in shoulder musculoskeletal ultrasound was established to generate a prediction model for rotator cuff lesions. Clinically, it is difficult to distinguish some kinds of rotator cuff lesions, especially partial-thickness tear of rotator cuff. The shoulder orthopaedic surgeon and musculoskeletal radiologist reported greater diagnostic test accuracy than general radiologist or ultrasonographers based on the available literature. Consequently, the proposed CAD system which was developed according to the experiment of the shoulder orthopaedic surgeon can provide reliable suggestions to general radiologists or ultrasonographers. More quantitative features related to the specific patterns of different lesion types would be investigated in the further study to improve the prediction.

Keywords: shoulder ultrasound, rotator cuff lesions, texture, computer-aided diagnosis

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

Abstract:

a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: S. Lecheb, A. Chellil, H. Mechakra, S. Attou, H. Kebir

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Although leaf springs are one of the oldest suspension components they are still frequently used, especially in commercial vehicles. Being able to capture the leaf spring characteristics is of significant importance for vehicle handling dynamics studies. The main function of leaf spring is not only to support vertical load but also to isolate road induced vibrations. It is subjected to millions of load cycles leading to fatigue failure. It needs to have excellent fatigue life. The objective of this work is its use of Abaqus software to locate the most stressed areas and predict the areas in which it occurs in fatigue and crack of leaf spring and calculate the stress and frequencies of this model.

Keywords: leaf spring, crack, stress, natural frequencies

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Vishwajit Ghatge, David Looper

Abstract:

Over the last few decades, oilfield service rolling equipment has significantly increased in weight, primarily because of emissions regulations, which require larger/heavier engines, larger cooling systems, and emissions after-treatment systems, in some cases, etc. Larger engines cause more vibration and shock loads, leading to failure of electronics and control systems. If the vibrating frequency of the engine matches the system frequency, high resonance is observed on structural parts and mounts. One such existing automated control equipment system comprising wire rope mounts used for mounting computers was designed approximately 12 years ago. This includes the use of an industrial- grade computer to control the system operation. The original computer had a smaller, lighter enclosure. After a few years, a newer computer version was introduced, which was 10 lbm heavier. Some failures of internal computer parts have been documented for cases in which the old mounts were used. Because of the added weight, there is a possibility of having the two brackets impact each other under off-road conditions, which causes a high shock input to the computer parts. This added failure mode requires validating the existing mount design to suit the new heavy-weight computer. This paper discusses the modal finite element method (FEM) analysis and experimental modal analysis conducted to study the effects of vibration on the wire rope mounts and the computer. The existing mount was modelled in ANSYS software, and resultant mode shapes and frequencies were obtained. The experimental modal analysis was conducted, and actual frequency responses were observed and recorded. Results clearly revealed that at resonance frequency, the brackets were colliding and potentially causing damage to computer parts. To solve this issue, spring mounts of different stiffness were modeled in ANSYS software, and the resonant frequency was determined. Increasing the stiffness of the system increased the resonant frequency zone away from the frequency window at which the engine showed heavy vibrations or resonance. After multiple iterations in ANSYS software, the stiffness of the spring mount was finalized, which was again experimentally validated.

Keywords: experimental modal analysis, FEM Modal Analysis, frequency, modal analysis, resonance, vibration

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Authors: Gevorgianiene Violeta, Sumskiene Egle

Abstract:

Background. Child removal is a profound and life-altering measure that significantly impacts both children and their mothers. Unfortunately, mothers with intellectual disabilities are disproportionately affected by the removal of their children. This action is often taken due to concerns about the mother's perceived inability to care for the child, instances of abuse and neglect, or struggles with addiction. In many cases, the failure to meet society's standards of a "good mother" is seen as a deviation from conventional norms of femininity and motherhood. From an institutional perspective, separating a child from their mother is sometimes viewed as a step toward restoring justice or doing what is considered "right." In another light, this act of child removal can be seen as the removal of a mother from her child, an attempt to shield society from the complexities and fears associated with motherhood for women with disabilities. This separation can be likened to the Greek legend of the Minotaur, a fearsome beast confined within an impenetrable labyrinth. By reimagining this legend, we can see the social fears surrounding 'mothering with intellectual disability' as deeply sealed within an unreachable place. The Aim of this Presentation. Our goal with this presentation is to draw from our research and the metaphors found in the Greek legend to delve into the profound challenges faced by mothers with intellectual disabilities in raising their children. These challenges often become entangled within an insurmountable labyrinth, including navigating complex institutional bureaucracies, enduring persistent doubts cast upon their maternal competencies, battling unfavorable societal narratives, and struggling to retain custody of their children. Coupled with limited social support networks, these challenges frequently lead to situations resulting in maternal failure and, ultimately, child removal. On a broader scale, this separation of a child from their mother symbolizes society’s collective avoidance of confronting the issue of 'mothering with disability,' which can only be effectively addressed through united efforts. Conclusion. Just as in the labyrinth of the Minotaur legend, the struggles faced by mothers with disabilities in their pursuit of retaining their children reveal the need for a metaphorical 'string of Ariadne.' This string symbolizes the support offered by social service providers, communities, and the loved ones these women often dream of but rarely encounter in their lives.

Keywords: motherhood, disability, child removal, support.

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Chin T. Cheung, Ho C. Yu

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Based on an indoor environmental quality (IEQ) index established by previous work that indicates the overall IEQ acceptance from the prospect of an occupant in residential buildings in terms of four IEQ factors - thermal comfort, indoor air quality, visual and aural comforts, this study develops a user-friendly IEQ calculator for iOS and Android users to calculate the occupant acceptance and compare the relative performance of IEQ in apartments. The calculator allows the prediction of the best IEQ scenario on a quantitative scale. Any indoor environments under the specific IEQ conditions can be benchmarked against the predicted IEQ acceptance range. This calculator can also suggest how to achieve the best IEQ acceptance among a group of residents.

Keywords: calculator, indoor environmental quality (IEQ), residential buildings, 5-star benchmarks

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: C. Lalitha, R. Sayee, D. Apoorva

Abstract:

Reproductive failure or infertility may be due to several factors that are not limited to one sex. It remains a common problem causing significant psychological distress to those affected individuals and who are increasingly seeking medical advice. Male infertility means inability to induce conception in normal woman within a year. The etiological factors associated with male infertility are anatomical, developmental, seminal, hormonal, immunological and environmental factors. The paper was aimed to highlight the environmental factors and its association to male infertility and seasonality of birth and its influence. The data was collected from the 75 male patients referred with infertility for karyotyping and counseling. Their age ranged from 21 to 45 years. It is opined that certain occupations are preferentially associated with male infertility.

Keywords: environmental, occupational, seasonal, male infertility

Procedia PDF Downloads 253