Search results for: subjective evaluation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7022

Search results for: subjective evaluation

5492 Fast Aerodynamic Evaluation of Transport Aircraft in Early Phases

Authors: Xavier Bertrand, Alexandre Cayrel

Abstract:

The early phase of an aircraft development is instrumental as it really drives the potential of a new concept. Any weakness in the high-level design (wing planform, moveable surfaces layout etc.) will be extremely difficult and expensive to recover later in the aircraft development process. Aerodynamic evaluation in this very early development phase is driven by two main criteria: a short lead-time to allow quick iterations of the geometrical design, and a high quality of the calculations to get an accurate & reliable assessment of the current status. These two criteria are usually quite contradictory. Actually, short lead time of a couple of hours from end-to-end can be obtained with very simple tools (semi-empirical methods for instance) although their accuracy is limited, whereas higher quality calculations require heavier/more complex tools, which obviously need more complex inputs as well, and a significantly longer lead time. At this point, the choice has to be done between accuracy and lead-time. A brand new approach has been developed within Airbus, aiming at obtaining quickly high quality evaluations of the aerodynamic of an aircraft. This methodology is based on a joint use of Surrogate Modelling and a lifting line code. The Surrogate Modelling is used to get the wing sections characteristics (e.g. lift coefficient vs. angle of attack), whatever the airfoil geometry, the status of the moveable surfaces (aileron/spoilers) or the high-lift devices deployment. From these characteristics, the lifting line code is used to get the 3D effects on the wing whatever the flow conditions (low/high Mach numbers etc.). This methodology has been applied successfully to a concept of medium range aircraft.

Keywords: aerodynamics, lifting line, surrogate model, CFD

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5491 Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Impact in the Crop Productivity of East Gojjam Zone

Authors: Walelgn Dilnesa Cherie, Fasikaw Atanaw Zimale, Bekalu W. Asres

Abstract:

The most catastrophic condition for agricultural production is a drought event, which is also one of the most hydro-metrological-related hazards. According to the combined susceptibility of plants to meteorological and hydrological conditions, agricultural drought is defined as the magnitude, severity, and duration of a drought that affects crop production. The accurate and timely assessment of agricultural drought can lead to the development of risk management strategies, appropriate proactive mechanisms for the protection of farmers, and the improvement of food security. The evaluation of agricultural drought in the East Gojjam zone was the primary subject of this study. To identify the agricultural drought, soil moisture anomalies, soil moisture deficit indices, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) are used. The measured welting point, field capacity, and soil moisture were utilized to validate the soil water deficit indices computed from the satellite data. The soil moisture and soil water deficit indices in 2013 in all woredas were minimum; this makes vegetation stress also in all woredas. The soil moisture content decreased in 2013/2014/2019, and 2021 in Dejen, 2014, and 2019 in Awobel Woreda. The max/ min values of NDVI in 2013 are minimum; it dominantly shows vegetation stress and an observed agricultural drought that happened in all woredas. The validation process of satellite and in-situ soil moisture and soil water deficit indices shows a good agreement with a value of R²=0.87 and 0.56, respectively. The study area becomes drought detected region, so government officials, policymakers, and environmentalists pay attention to the protection of drought effects.

Keywords: NDVI, agricultural drought, SWDI, soil moisture

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5490 Development and Evaluation of New Complementary Food from Maize, Soya Bean and Moringa for Young Children

Authors: Berhan Fikru

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to develop new complementary food from maize, soybean and moringa for young children. The complementary foods were formulated with linear programming (LP Nutri-survey software) and Faffa (corn soya blend) use as control. Analysis were made for formulated blends and compared with the control and recommended daily intake (RDI). Three complementary foods composed of maize, soya bean, moringa and sugar with ratio of 65:20:15:0, 55:25:15:5 and 65:20:10:5 for blend 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The blends were formulated based on the protein, energy, mineral (iron, zinc an calcium) and vitamin (vitamin A and C) content of foods. The overall results indicated that nutrient content of faffa (control) was 16.32 % protein, 422.31 kcal energy, 64.47 mg calcium, 3.8 mg iron, 1.87mg zinc, 0.19 mg vitamin A and 1.19 vitamin C; blend 1 had 17.16 % protein, 429.84 kcal energy, 330.40 mg calcium, 6.19 mg iron, 1.62 mg zinc, 6.33 mg vitamin A and 4.05 mg vitamin C; blend 2 had 20.26 % protein, 418.79 kcal energy, 417.44 mg calcium, 9.26 mg iron, 2.16 mg zinc, 8.43 mg vitamin A and 4.19 mg vitamin C whereas blend 3 exhibited 16.44 % protein, 417.42 kcal energy, 242.4 mg calcium, 7.09 mg iron, 2.22 mg zinc, 3.69 mg vitamin A and 4.72 mg vitamin C, respectively. The difference was found between all means statically significance (P < 0.05). Sensory evaluation showed that the faffa control and blend 3 were preferred by semi-trained panelists. Blend 3 had better in terms of its mineral and vitamin content than FAFFA corn soya blend and comparable with WFP proprietary products CSB+, CSB++ and fulfills the WHO recommendation for protein, energy and calcium. The suggested formulation with Moringa powder can therefore be used as a complementary food to improve the nutritional status and also help solve problems associated with protein energy and micronutrient malnutrition for young children in developing countries, particularly in Ethiopia.

Keywords: corn soya blend, proximate composition, micronutrient, mineral chelating agents, complementary foods

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5489 Knowledge and Capabilities of Primary Caregivers in Providing Quality Care for Elderly Patients with Post- Operative Hip Fracture, Songklanagarind Hospital

Authors: Manee Hasap, Mongkolchai Hasap, Tasanee Nasae

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the primary caregivers’ knowledge and capabilities for providing quality care to be hospitalized post-hip fracture surgery elderly patients. The theoretical framework of the study was derived from the concepts of dependent care agency in Orem’s Self-Care theory, and family care provision for the elderly and chronically ill patients. 59 subjects were purposively selected. The subjects were primary caregivers of post-operated hip fracture elderly patients who had been admitted to the Orthopaedic Ward of Songklanagarind Hospital. Demographic data of the caregivers and patients were collected by non-participant observation using the evaluation and recording forms. The reliability of caregivers’ knowledge measurement (0.86) was obtained by KR-20 and that of caregivers’ capabilities for post-operative care evaluation form (0.97) obtained from 2 observers by interrater reliability. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistic, which were frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation. The result of this study indicated that elderly patients with post-hip fracture surgery had many pre-discharge self care limitations. Approximately, 75% of the caregivers had knowledge to respond to patient’s essential needs at a high level, while the rest (25%) had this knowledge a moderate level. For observation, 57.63% of the subjects had capabilities in care practice at a moderate level; 28.81% had capabilities in care practice at a high level, while 13.56% had at a low level. The result of this study can be used as basic information for patients and caregivers capabilities developing plan especially, providing patients’ activities, accident surveillance and complications prevention for a good life quality of elderly patients after hip surgery both hospitalization and rehabilitation at home.

Keywords: care givers’ knowledge, care givers’ capabilities, elderly hip fracture patients, patients

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5488 Library Screening and Evaluation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Ketol-Acid Reductoisomerase Inhibitors

Authors: Vagolu S. Krishna, Shan Zheng, Estharla M. Rekha, Luke W. Guddat, Dharmarajan Sriram

Abstract:

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to human health. This due to the fact that current drug treatments are less than optimal as well as the rising occurrence of multi drug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant strains of the etiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mt). Given the wide-spread significance of this disease, we have undertaken a design and evaluation program to discover new anti-TB drug leads. Here, our attention is focused on ketol-acid reductoisomerase (KARI), the second enzyme in the branched-chain amino acid biosynthesis pathway. Importantly, this enzyme is present in bacteria but not in humans, making it an attractive proposition for drug discovery. In the present work, we used high-throughput virtual screening to identify seventeen potential inhibitors of KARI using the Birla Institute of Technology and Science in-house database. Compounds were selected based on high docking scores, which were assigned as the result of favourable interactions between the compound and the active site of KARI. The Ki values for two leads, compounds 14 and 16 are 3.71 and 3.06 µM, respectively for Mt KARI. To assess the mode of binding, 100 ns molecular dynamics simulations for these two compounds in association with Mt KARI were performed and showed that the complex was stable with an average RMSD of less than 2.5 Å for all atoms. Compound 16 showed an MIC of 2.06 ± 0.91 µM and a 1.9 fold logarithmic reduction in the growth of Mt in an infected macrophage model. The two compounds exhibited low toxicity against murine macrophage RAW 264.7 cell lines. Thus, both compounds are promising candidates for development as an anti-TB drug leads.

Keywords: ketol-acid reductoisomerase, macrophage, molecular docking and dynamics, tuberculosis

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5487 Decision Support System for Fetus Status Evaluation Using Cardiotocograms

Authors: Oyebade K. Oyedotun

Abstract:

The cardiotocogram is a technical recording of the heartbeat rate and uterine contractions of a fetus during pregnancy. During pregnancy, several complications can occur to both the mother and the fetus; hence it is very crucial that medical experts are able to find technical means to check the healthiness of the mother and especially the fetus. It is very important that the fetus develops as expected in stages during the pregnancy period; however, the task of monitoring the health status of the fetus is not that which is easily achieved as the fetus is not wholly physically available to medical experts for inspection. Hence, doctors have to resort to some other tests that can give an indication of the status of the fetus. One of such diagnostic test is to obtain cardiotocograms of the fetus. From the analysis of the cardiotocograms, medical experts can determine the status of the fetus, and therefore necessary medical interventions. Generally, medical experts classify examined cardiotocograms into ‘normal’, ‘suspect’, or ‘pathological’. This work presents an artificial neural network based decision support system which can filter cardiotocograms data, producing the corresponding statuses of the fetuses. The capability of artificial neural network to explore the cardiotocogram data and learn features that distinguish one class from the others has been exploited in this research. In this research, feedforward and radial basis neural networks were trained on a publicly available database to classify the processed cardiotocogram data into one of the three classes: ‘normal’, ‘suspect’, or ‘pathological’. Classification accuracies of 87.8% and 89.2% were achieved during the test phase of the trained network for the feedforward and radial basis neural networks respectively. It is the hope that while the system described in this work may not be a complete replacement for a medical expert in fetus status evaluation, it can significantly reinforce the confidence in medical diagnosis reached by experts.

Keywords: decision support, cardiotocogram, classification, neural networks

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5486 The microbial evaluation of cow raw milk used in private dairy factories in of Zawia city, Libya

Authors: Obied A. Alwan, Elgerbi, M. Ali

Abstract:

This study was conducted on the cow milk which is used in the local milk factories of Zawia. This was completely random sampling the unscheduled samples. The microbiologic result have approved that the count of bacteria and the count of E.Coli are very high and all the manufacturing places which were included in the study have lacked the health conditions.

Keywords: raw milk, dairy factories, Libya, microbiologic

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5485 Management of Cultural Heritage: Bologna Gates

Authors: Alfonso Ippolito, Cristiana Bartolomei

Abstract:

A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.

Keywords: cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D-3D models

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5484 WWSE School Development in German Christian Schools Revisited: Organizational Development Taken to a Test

Authors: Marco Sewald

Abstract:

WWSE School Development (Wahrnehmungs- und wertorientierte Schulentwicklung) contains surveys on pupils, teachers and parents and enables schools to align the development to the requirements mentioned by these three stakeholders. WWSE includes a derivative set of questions for Christian schools, meeting their specific needs. The conducted research on WWSE is reflecting contemporary questions on school development, questioning the quality of the implementation of the results of past surveys, delivered by WWSE School Development in Christian schools in Germany. The research focused on questions connected to organizational development, including leadership and change management. This is done contoured to the two other areas of WWSE: human resources development and development of school teaching methods. The chosen research methods are: (1) A quantitative triangulation on three sets of data. Data from a past evaluation taken in 2011, data from a second evaluation covering the same school conducted in 2014 and a structured survey among the teachers, headmasters and members of the school board taken within the research. (2) Interviews with teachers and headmasters have been conducted during the research as a second stage to fortify the result of the quantitative first stage. Results: WWSE is supporting modern school development. While organizational development, leadership, and change management are proofed to be important for modern school development, these areas are widespread underestimated by teachers and headmasters. Especially in comparison to the field of human resource development and to an even bigger extent in comparison to the area of development of school teaching methods. The research concluded, that additional efforts in the area of organizational development are necessary to meet modern demands and the research also shows which areas are the most important ones.

Keywords: school as a social organization, school development, school leadership, WWSE, Wahrnehmungs- und wertorientierte Schulentwicklung

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5483 Evaluation of the Grammar Questions at the Undergraduate Level

Authors: Preeti Gacche

Abstract:

A considerable part of undergraduate level English Examination papers is devoted to grammar. Hence the grammar questions in the question papers are evaluated and the opinions of both students and teachers about them are obtained and analyzed. A grammar test of 100 marks is administered to 43 students to check their performance. The question papers have been evaluated by 10 different teachers and their scores compared. The analysis of 38 University question papers reveals that on an average 20 percent marks are allotted to grammar. Almost all the grammar topics are tested. Abundant use of grammatical terminology is observed in the questions. Decontextualization, repetition, possibility of multiple correct answers and grammatical errors in framing the questions have been observed. Opinions of teachers and students about grammar questions vary in many respects. The students responses are analyzed medium-wise and sex-wise. The Medium at the School level and the sex of the students are found to play no role as far as interest in the study of grammar is concerned. English medium students solve grammar questions intuitively whereas non-English medium students are required to recollect the rules of grammar. Prepositions, Verbs, Articles and Model auxiliaries are found to be easy topics for most students whereas the use of conjunctions is the most difficult topic. Out of context items of grammar are difficult to answer in comparison with contextualized items of grammar. Hence contextualized texts to test grammar items are desirable. No formal training in setting questions is imparted to teachers by the competent authorities like the University. They need to be trained in testing. Statistically there is no significant change of score with the change in the rater in testing of grammar items. There is scope of future improvement. The question papers need to be evaluated and feedback needs to be obtained from students and teachers for future improvement.

Keywords: context, evaluation, grammar, tests

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5482 Comprehensive Evaluation of Oral and Maxillofacial Radiology in "COVID-19"

Authors: Sahar Heidary, Ramin Ghasemi Shayan

Abstract:

The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurrence has carried considerabletrials to the world health system, comprising the training of dental and maxillofacial radiology (DMFR). DMFR will keep avital role in healthcare throughout this disaster. Severe acute breathing disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus producing the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, is not only extremely contagious but can make solemn consequences in susceptible persons comprising dental patients and dental health care personnel (DHCPs). Reactions to COVID-19 have been available by the Cores for Infection Switch and Inhibition and the American Dental Association, but a more detailed answer is necessary for the harmless preparation of oral and maxillofacial radiology. Our goal is to evaluation the existing information just how the illness threatens patients and DHCPs and how to define which patients are possible to be SARS-CoV-2 infected; study how the usage of private shielding utensils and contamination control measures based on recent top observes, and knowledge can decrease the danger of virus spread in radiologic trials; and scrutinize how intraoral radiography, with its actually superior danger of scattering the infection, might be changed by extraoralradiographic methods for definite diagnostic jobs. In the pandemic, teleradiology has been extensively recycled for diagnostic determinations of COVID-19 patients, for discussions with radiologists in crisis cases, or managing of distance among radiology clinics. Dentists can have the digital radiographic images of their emergency patients through online service area also by electronic message or messaging applications to view in their smart phones, laptops, or other electronic devices.

Keywords: radiology, dental, oral, COVID-19, infection

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5481 Performance Evaluation of Fingerprint, Auto-Pin and Password-Based Security Systems in Cloud Computing Environment

Authors: Emmanuel Ogala

Abstract:

Cloud computing has been envisioned as the next-generation architecture of Information Technology (IT) enterprise. In contrast to traditional solutions where IT services are under physical, logical and personnel controls, cloud computing moves the application software and databases to the large data centres, where the management of the data and services may not be fully trustworthy. This is due to the fact that the systems are opened to the whole world and as people tries to have access into the system, many people also are there trying day-in day-out on having unauthorized access into the system. This research contributes to the improvement of cloud computing security for better operation. The work is motivated by two problems: first, the observed easy access to cloud computing resources and complexity of attacks to vital cloud computing data system NIC requires that dynamic security mechanism evolves to stay capable of preventing illegitimate access. Second; lack of good methodology for performance test and evaluation of biometric security algorithms for securing records in cloud computing environment. The aim of this research was to evaluate the performance of an integrated security system (ISS) for securing exams records in cloud computing environment. In this research, we designed and implemented an ISS consisting of three security mechanisms of biometric (fingerprint), auto-PIN and password into one stream of access control and used for securing examination records in Kogi State University, Anyigba. Conclusively, the system we built has been able to overcome guessing abilities of hackers who guesses people password or pin. We are certain about this because the added security system (fingerprint) needs the presence of the user of the software before a login access can be granted. This is based on the placement of his finger on the fingerprint biometrics scanner for capturing and verification purpose for user’s authenticity confirmation. The study adopted the conceptual of quantitative design. Object oriented and design methodology was adopted. In the analysis and design, PHP, HTML5, CSS, Visual Studio Java Script, and web 2.0 technologies were used to implement the model of ISS for cloud computing environment. Note; PHP, HTML5, CSS were used in conjunction with visual Studio front end engine design tools and MySQL + Access 7.0 were used for the backend engine and Java Script was used for object arrangement and also validation of user input for security check. Finally, the performance of the developed framework was evaluated by comparing with two other existing security systems (Auto-PIN and password) within the school and the results showed that the developed approach (fingerprint) allows overcoming the two main weaknesses of the existing systems and will work perfectly well if fully implemented.

Keywords: performance evaluation, fingerprint, auto-pin, password-based, security systems, cloud computing environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
5480 GIS Model for Sanitary Landfill Site Selection Based on Geotechnical Parameters

Authors: Hecson Christian, Joel Macwan

Abstract:

Landfill site selection in an urban area is a critical issue in the planning process. With the growth of the urbanization, it has a mammoth impact on the economy, ecology, and environmental health of the region. Outsized amount of wastes are produced and the problem gets soared every day. Hence, selection of ideal site for sanitary landfill is a challenge for urban planners and solid waste managers. Disposal site is a function of many parameters. Among all, Geotechnical parameters are very vital as the same is related to surrounding open land. Moreover, the accessible safe and acceptable land is also scarce. Therefore, in this paper geotechnical parameters are used to develop a GIS model to identify an ideal location for landfill purpose. Metropolitan city of Surat is highly populated and fastest growing urban area in India. The research objectives are to conduct field experiments to collect data and to transfer the facts in GIS platform to evolve a model, to find ideal location. Planners’ preferences were obtained to use analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to find weights of each parameter. Integration of GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques are applied to improve decision-making. It augments an environment for transformation and combination of geographical data and planners’ preferences. GIS performs deterministic overlay and buffer operations. MCDA methods evaluate alternatives based on the decision makers’ subjective values and priorities. Research results have shown many alternative locations. Economic analysis of selected site from actual operations point of view is not included in this research.

Keywords: GIS, AHP, MCDA, Geo-technical

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5479 The Effects of the Introduction of a One-day Waiting Period on Absences for Ordinary Illness of Public Employees

Authors: Mohamed Ali Ben Halima, Malik Koubi, Joseph Lanfranchi, Yohan Wloczysiak

Abstract:

This article assesses the consequences on the frequency and duration of ordinary sick leave of the January 2012 and 2018 reforms modifying the scope of sick leave reimbursement in the French civil service. These reforms introduce a one-day waiting period which removes the compensation for the first day of ordinary sick leave. In order to evaluate these reforms, we use an administrative database from the National Pension Fund for local public employees (FPT). The first important result of our data analysis is that the one-day waiting period was not introduced at the same time in the French Local Public Service establishments, or even never in some. This peculiarity allows for an identification strategy using a difference-in-differences method based on the definition at each date of groups of employees treated and not treated by the reform, since establishments that apply the one-day waiting period coexist with establishments that do not apply it. Two types of estimators are used for this evaluation: individual and time fixed effects estimators and DIDM estimators which correct for the biases of the Two Way Fixed Effects one. The results confirm that the change in the sick pay system decreases the probability of having at least one ordinary sick leave as well as the number and duration of these episodes. On the other hand, the estimates show that longer leave episodes are not less affected than shorter ones. Finally, the validity tests of the estimators support the results obtained for the second period of 2018-2019, but suggest estimation biases for the period 2012-2013. The extent to which the endogeneity of the choices of implementation of the reform at the local level impact these estimates needs to be further tested.

Keywords: sick leave, one-day waiting period, territorial civil service, public policy evaluation

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5478 Evaluation of Cooperative Hand Movement Capacity in Stroke Patients Using the Cooperative Activity Stroke Assessment

Authors: F. A. Thomas, M. Schrafl-Altermatt, R. Treier, S. Kaufmann

Abstract:

Stroke is the main cause of adult disability. Especially upper limb function is affected in most patients. Recently, cooperative hand movements have been shown to be a promising type of upper limb training in stroke rehabilitation. In these movements, which are frequently found in activities of daily living (e.g. opening a bottle, winding up a blind), the force of one upper limb has to be equally counteracted by the other limb to successfully accomplish a task. The use of standardized and reliable clinical assessments is essential to evaluate the efficacy of therapy and the functional outcome of a patient. Many assessments for upper limb function or impairment are available. However, the evaluation of cooperative hand movement tasks are rarely included in those. Thus, the aim of this study was (i) to develop a novel clinical assessment (CASA - Cooperative Activity Stroke Assessment) for the evaluation of patients’ capacity to perform cooperative hand movements and (ii) to test its inter- and interrater reliability. Furthermore, CASA scores were compared to current gold standard assessments for upper extremity in stroke patients (i.e. Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Box & Blocks Test). The CASA consists of five cooperative activities of daily living including (1) opening a jar, (2) opening a bottle, (3) open and closing of a zip, (4) unscrew a nut and (5) opening a clipbox. Here, the goal is to accomplish the tasks as fast as possible. In addition to the quantitative rating (i.e. time) which is converted to a 7-point scale, also the quality of the movement is rated in a 4-point scale. To test the reliability of CASA, fifteen stroke subjects were tested within a week twice by the same two raters. Intra-and interrater reliability was calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for total CASA score and single items. Furthermore, Pearson-correlation was used to compare the CASA scores to the scores of Fugl-Meyer upper limb assessment and the box and blocks test, which were assessed in every patient additionally to the CASA. ICC scores of the total CASA score indicated an excellent- and single items established a good to excellent inter- and interrater reliability. Furthermore, the CASA score was significantly correlated to the Fugl-Meyer and Box & Blocks score. The CASA provides a reliable assessment for cooperative hand movements which are crucial for many activities of daily living. Due to its non-costly setup, easy and fast implementation, we suggest it to be well suitable for clinical application. In conclusion, the CASA is a useful tool in assessing the functional status and therapy related recovery in cooperative hand movement capacity in stroke patients.

Keywords: activitites of daily living, clinical assessment, cooperative hand movements, reliability, stroke

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5477 Robust Segmentation of Salient Features in Automatic Breast Ultrasound (ABUS) Images

Authors: Lamees Nasser, Yago Diez, Robert Martí, Joan Martí, Ibrahim Sadek

Abstract:

Automated 3D breast ultrasound (ABUS) screening is a novel modality in medical imaging because of its common characteristics shared with other ultrasound modalities in addition to the three orthogonal planes (i.e., axial, sagittal, and coronal) that are useful in analysis of tumors. In the literature, few automatic approaches exist for typical tasks such as segmentation or registration. In this work, we deal with two problems concerning ABUS images: nipple and rib detection. Nipple and ribs are the most visible and salient features in ABUS images. Determining the nipple position plays a key role in some applications for example evaluation of registration results or lesion follow-up. We present a nipple detection algorithm based on color and shape of the nipple, besides an automatic approach to detect the ribs. In point of fact, rib detection is considered as one of the main stages in chest wall segmentation. This approach consists of four steps. First, images are normalized in order to minimize the intensity variability for a given set of regions within the same image or a set of images. Second, the normalized images are smoothed by using anisotropic diffusion filter. Next, the ribs are detected in each slice by analyzing the eigenvalues of the 3D Hessian matrix. Finally, a breast mask and a probability map of regions detected as ribs are used to remove false positives (FP). Qualitative and quantitative evaluation obtained from a total of 22 cases is performed. For all cases, the average and standard deviation of the root mean square error (RMSE) between manually annotated points placed on the rib surface and detected points on rib borders are 15.1188 mm and 14.7184 mm respectively.

Keywords: Automated 3D Breast Ultrasound, Eigenvalues of Hessian matrix, Nipple detection, Rib detection

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5476 Qualitative Analysis of Current Child Custody Evaluation Practices

Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

Abstract:

The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody

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5475 Neuron Point-of-Care Stem Cell Therapy: Intrathecal Transplant of Autologous Bone Marrow-Derived Stem Cells in Patients with Cerebral Palsy

Authors: F. Ruiz-Navarro, M. Matzner, G. Kobinia

Abstract:

Background: Cerebral palsy (CP) encompasses the largest group of childhood movement disorders, the patterns and severity varies widely. Today, the management focuses only on a rehabilitation therapy that tries to secure the functions remained and prevents complications. However the treatments are not aimed to cure the disease. Stem cells (SCs) transplant via intrathecal is a new approach to the disease. Method: Our aim was to performed a pilot study under the condition of unproven treatment on clinical practice to assessed the safety and efficacy of Neuron Point-of-care Stem cell Therapy (N-POCST), an ambulatory procedure of autologous bone marrow derived SCs (BM-SCs) harvested from the posterior superior iliac crest undergo an on-site cell separation for intrathecal infusion via lumbar puncture. Results: 82 patients were treated in a period of 28 months, with a follow-up after 6 months. They had a mean age of 6,2 years old and male predominance (65,9%). Our preliminary results show that: A. No patient had any major side effects, B. Only 20% presented mild headache due to LP, C. 53% of the patients had an improvement in spasticity, D. 61% improved the coordination abilities, 23% improved the motor function, 15% improved the speech, 23% reduced the number of convulsive events with the same doses or less doses of anti-convulsive medication and 94% of the patients report a subjective general improvement. Conclusions: These results support previous worldwide publications that described the safety and effectiveness of autologous BM-SCs transplant for patients wit CP.

Keywords: autologous transplant, cerebral palsy, point of care, childhood movement disorders

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5474 Household Climate-Resilience Index Development for the Health Sector in Tanzania: Use of Demographic and Health Surveys Data Linked with Remote Sensing

Authors: Heribert R. Kaijage, Samuel N. A. Codjoe, Simon H. D. Mamuya, Mangi J. Ezekiel

Abstract:

There is strong evidence that climate has changed significantly affecting various sectors including public health. The recommended feasible solution is adopting development trajectories which combine both mitigation and adaptation measures for improving resilience pathways. This approach demands a consideration for complex interactions between climate and social-ecological systems. While other sectors such as agriculture and water have developed climate resilience indices, the public health sector in Tanzania is still lagging behind. The aim of this study was to find out how can we use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) linked with Remote Sensing (RS) technology and metrological information as tools to inform climate change resilient development and evaluation for the health sector. Methodological review was conducted whereby a number of studies were content analyzed to find appropriate indicators and indices for climate resilience household and their integration approach. These indicators were critically reviewed, listed, filtered and their sources determined. Preliminary identification and ranking of indicators were conducted using participatory approach of pairwise weighting by selected national stakeholders from meeting/conferences on human health and climate change sciences in Tanzania. DHS datasets were retrieved from Measure Evaluation project, processed and critically analyzed for possible climate change indicators. Other sources for indicators of climate change exposure were also identified. For the purpose of preliminary reporting, operationalization of selected indicators was discussed to produce methodological approach to be used in resilience comparative analysis study. It was found that household climate resilient index depends on the combination of three indices namely Household Adaptive and Mitigation Capacity (HC), Household Health Sensitivity (HHS) and Household Exposure Status (HES). It was also found that, DHS alone cannot complement resilient evaluation unless integrated with other data sources notably flooding data as a measure of vulnerability, remote sensing image of Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Metrological data (deviation from rainfall pattern). It can be concluded that if these indices retrieved from DHS data sets are computed and scientifically integrated can produce single climate resilience index and resilience maps could be generated at different spatial and time scales to enhance targeted interventions for climate resilient development and evaluations. However, further studies are need to test for the sensitivity of index in resilience comparative analysis among selected regions.

Keywords: climate change, resilience, remote sensing, demographic and health surveys

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5473 The Conceptual Exploration of Comfort Zone by Using Content Analysis

Authors: Lilla Szabó Hangya, Szilvia Jambori

Abstract:

The comfort zone is less studied area in the field of psychology. One of the most important definitions is that comfort zone is a psychological state in which things feel familiar to a person with low level of anxiety and stress. But the validity of comfort zone does not confirm till now. The aim of our pilot research is to test which psychological factors could determine how young adults behave during their decision process to stay in one’s comfort zone or to leave it. Every person has a number of comfort zones, so we are not able to measure it directly, only those personality traits which predict if someone leaves his comfort zone easier or harder. In our study at first we wanted to clarify the meaning of comfort zone. 110 young adults (male: 37, female: 73; ages from 18 to 70, average age: 26,6) took part in the study. Beside their demographic datas we asked them what does the comfort zone mean for them. The results showed that the meaning of the comfort zone can be grouped in five dimensions: comfort (49,6 %), leaving it-change (8,1%), ambivalent feelings (10,6%), related to other people (10,6%), pursuit of self-realization (16,8%). Our results demonstrated age related characteristics. For young people at the age of 19 the comfort zone is related to other people, because during adolescents peer relationships become more important. Subjects at the age 20-30 answered that the comfort zone means comfort and stability for them. Their life becomes stable for a while, they are studying or working. But at the age of 25, when they finish university, most of them answered comfort zone means a changing process for them. On the other hand for subjects at the age of 27 the means of the comfort zone is pursuit of self-realization. After that period at the age of 31 when they have families and stable job the stability will also dominant. We saw that the comfort zone has much more meaning besides a pleasant psychological trait. Further we would like to determine which psychological factors relate to comfort zone, and what kind of personality traits could predict leaving or staying in one’s comfort zone. We want to observe the relationship between comfort zone and subjective well-being, life satisfaction self-efficacy or self-esteem.

Keywords: comfort zone, development, personality trait, young adults

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5472 Low-Cost Image Processing System for Evaluating Pavement Surface Distress

Authors: Keerti Kembhavi, M. R. Archana, V. Anjaneyappa

Abstract:

Most asphalt pavement condition evaluation use rating frameworks in which asphalt pavement distress is estimated by type, extent, and severity. Rating is carried out by the pavement condition rating (PCR), which is tedious and expensive. This paper presents the development of a low-cost technique for image pavement distress analysis that permits the identification of pothole and cracks. The paper explores the application of image processing tools for the detection of potholes and cracks. Longitudinal cracking and pothole are detected using Fuzzy-C- Means (FCM) and proceeded with the Spectral Theory algorithm. The framework comprises three phases, including image acquisition, processing, and extraction of features. A digital camera (Gopro) with the holder is used to capture pavement distress images on a moving vehicle. FCM classifier and Spectral Theory algorithms are used to compute features and classify the longitudinal cracking and pothole. The Matlab2016Ra Image preparing tool kit utilizes performance analysis to identify the viability of pavement distress on selected urban stretches of Bengaluru city, India. The outcomes of image evaluation with the utilization semi-computerized image handling framework represented the features of longitudinal crack and pothole with an accuracy of about 80%. Further, the detected images are validated with the actual dimensions, and it is seen that dimension variability is about 0.46. The linear regression model y=1.171x-0.155 is obtained using the existing and experimental / image processing area. The R2 correlation square obtained from the best fit line is 0.807, which is considered in the linear regression model to be ‘large positive linear association’.

Keywords: crack detection, pothole detection, spectral clustering, fuzzy-c-means

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5471 MRI Quality Control Using Texture Analysis and Spatial Metrics

Authors: Kumar Kanudkuri, A. Sandhya

Abstract:

Typically, in a MRI clinical setting, there are several protocols run, each indicated for a specific anatomy and disease condition. However, these protocols or parameters within them can change over time due to changes to the recommendations by the physician groups or updates in the software or by the availability of new technologies. Most of the time, the changes are performed by the MRI technologist to account for either time, coverage, physiological, or Specific Absorbtion Rate (SAR ) reasons. However, giving properly guidelines to MRI technologist is important so that they do not change the parameters that negatively impact the image quality. Typically a standard American College of Radiology (ACR) MRI phantom is used for Quality Control (QC) in order to guarantee that the primary objectives of MRI are met. The visual evaluation of quality depends on the operator/reviewer and might change amongst operators as well as for the same operator at various times. Therefore, overcoming these constraints is essential for a more impartial evaluation of quality. This makes quantitative estimation of image quality (IQ) metrics for MRI quality control is very important. So in order to solve this problem, we proposed that there is a need for a robust, open-source, and automated MRI image control tool. The Designed and developed an automatic analysis tool for measuring MRI image quality (IQ) metrics like Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), Signal to Noise Ratio Uniformity (SNRU), Visual Information Fidelity (VIF), Feature Similarity (FSIM), Gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), slice thickness accuracy, slice position accuracy, High contrast spatial resolution) provided good accuracy assessment. A standardized quality report has generated that incorporates metrics that impact diagnostic quality.

Keywords: ACR MRI phantom, MRI image quality metrics, SNRU, VIF, FSIM, GLCM, slice thickness accuracy, slice position accuracy

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5470 Examination of Forged Signatures Printed by Means of Fabrication in Terms of Their Relation to the Perpetrator

Authors: Salim Yaren, Nergis Canturk

Abstract:

Signatures are signs that are handwritten by person in order to confirm values such as information, amount, meaning, time and undertaking that bear on a document. It is understood that the signature of a document and the accuracy of the information on the signature is accepted and approved. Forged signatures are formed by forger without knowing and seeing original signature of person that forger will imitate and as a result of his/her effort for hiding typical characteristics of his/her own signatures. Forged signatures are often signed by starting with the initials of the first and last name or persons of the persons whose fake signature will be signed. The similarities in the signatures are completely random. Within the scope of the study, forged signatures are collected from 100 people both their original signatures and forged signatures signed referring to 5 imaginary people. These signatures are compared for 14 signature analyzing criteria by 2 signature analyzing experts except the researcher. 1 numbered analyzing expert who is 9 year experience in his/her field evaluated signatures of 39 (39%) people right and of 25 (25%) people wrong and he /she made any evaluations for signatures of 36 (36%) people. 2 numbered analyzing expert who is 16 year experienced in his/her field evaluated signatures of 49 (49%) people right and 28 (28%) people wrong and he /she made any evaluations for signatures of 23 (23%) people. Forged signatures that are signed by 24 (24%) people are matched by two analyzing experts properly, forged signatures that are signed by 8 (8%) people are matched wrongfully and made up signatures that are signed by 12 (12%) people couldn't be decided by both analyzing experts. Signatures analyzing is a subjective topic so that analyzing and comparisons take form according to education, knowledge and experience of the expert. Consequently, due to the fact that 39% success is achieved by analyzing expert who has 9 year professional experience and 49% success is achieved by analyzing expert who has 16 year professional experience, it is seen that success rate is directly proportionate to knowledge and experience of the expert.

Keywords: forensic signature, forensic signature analysis, signature analysis criteria, forged signature

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5469 The Relationship between Anthropometric Obesity Indices and Insulin in Children with Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

The number of indices developed for the evaluation of obesity both in adults and pediatric population is ever increasing. These indices are also used in cases with metabolic syndrome (MetS), mostly the ultimate form of morbid obesity. Aside from anthropometric measurements, formulas constituted using these parameters also find clinical use. These formulas can be listed as two groups; being weight-dependent and –independent. Some are extremely sophisticated equations and their clinical utility is questionable in routine clinical practice. The aim of this study is to compare presently available obesity indices and find the most practical one. Their associations with MetS components were also investigated to determine their capacities in differential diagnosis of morbid obesity with and without MetS. Children with normal body mass index (N-BMI) and morbid obesity were recruited for this study. Three groups were constituted. Age- and sex- dependent BMI percentiles for morbid obese (MO) children were above 99 according to World Health Organization tables. Of them, those with MetS findings were evaluated as MetS group. Children, whose values were between 85 and 15 were included in N-BMI group. The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Institution. Parents filled out informed consent forms to participate in the study. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure values were recorded. Body mass index, hip index (HI), conicity index (CI), triponderal mass index (TPMI), body adiposity index (BAI), body shape index (ABSI), body roundness index (BRI), abdominal volume index (AVI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist circumference+hip circumference/2 ((WC+HC)/2) were the formulas examined within the scope of this study. Routine biochemical tests including fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) were performed. Statistical package program SPSS was used for the evaluation of study data. p<0.05 was accepted as the statistical significance degree. Hip index did not differ among the groups. A statistically significant difference was noted between N-BMI and MetS groups in terms of ABSI. All the other indices were capable of making discrimination between N-BMI-MO, N-BMI- MetS and MO-MetS groups. No correlation was found between FBG and any obesity indices in any groups. The same was true for INS in N-BMI group. Insulin was correlated with BAI, TPMI, CI, BRI, AVI and (WC+HC)/2 in MO group without MetS findings. In MetS group, the only index, which was correlated with INS was (WC+HC)/2. These findings have pointed out that complicated formulas may not be required for the evaluation of the alterations among N-BMI and various obesity groups including MetS. The simple easily computable weight-independent index, (WC+HC)/2, was unique, because it was the only index, which exhibits a valuable association with INS in MetS group. It did not exhibit any correlation with other obesity indices showing associations with INS in MO group. It was concluded that (WC+HC)/2 was pretty valuable practicable index for the discrimination of MO children with and without MetS findings.

Keywords: children, insulin, metabolic syndrome, obesity indices

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5468 Value Proposition and Value Creation in Network Environments: An Experimental Study of Academic Productivity via the Application of Bibliometrics

Authors: R. Oleko, A. Saraceni

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to provide a rigorous evaluation of the existing academic productivity in relation to value proposition and creation in networked environments. Bibliometrics is a vigorous approach used to structure existing literature in an objective and reliable manner. To that aim, a thorough bibliometric analysis was performed in order to assess the large volume of the information encountered in a structured and reliable manner. A clear distinction between networks and service networks was considered indispensable in order to capture the effects of each network’s type properties on value creation processes. Via the use of bibliometric parameters, this review was able to capture the state-of-the-art in both value proposition and value creation consecutively. The results provide a rigorous assessment of the annual scientific production, the most influential journals, and the leading corresponding author countries. By means of citation analysis, the most frequently cited manuscripts and countries for each network type were identified. Moreover, by means of co-citation analysis, existing collaborative patterns were detected through the creation of reference co-citation networks and country collaboration networks. Co-word analysis was also performed in order to provide an overview of the conceptual structure in both networks and service networks. The acquired results provide a rigorous and systematic assessment of the existing scientific output in networked settings. As such, they positively contribute to a better understanding of the distinct impact of service networks on value proposition and value creation when compared to regular networks. The implications derived can serve as a guide for informed decision-making by practitioners during network formation and provide a structured evaluation that can stand as a basis for future research in the field.

Keywords: bibliometrics, co-citation analysis, networks, service networks, value creation, value proposition

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
5467 CAGE Questionnaire as a Screening Tool for Hazardous Drinking in an Acute Admissions Ward: Frequency of Application and Comparison with AUDIT-C Questionnaire

Authors: Ammar Ayad Issa Al-Rifaie, Zuhreya Muazu, Maysam Ali Abdulwahid, Dermot Gleeson

Abstract:

The aim of this audit was to examine the efficiency of alcohol history documentation and screening for hazardous drinkers at the Medical Admission Unit (MAU) of Northern General Hospital (NGH), Sheffield, to identify any potential for enhancing clinical practice. Data were collected from medical clerking sheets, ICE system and directly from 82 patients by three junior medical doctors using both CAGE questionnaire and AUDIT-C tool for newly admitted patients to MAU in NGH, in the period between January and March 2015. Alcohol consumption was documented in around two-third of the patient sample and this was documented fairly accurately by health care professionals. Some used subjective words such as 'social drinking' in the alcohol units’ section of the history. CAGE questionnaire was applied to only four patients and none of the patients had documented advice, education or referral to an alcohol liaison team. AUDIT-C tool had identified 30.4%, while CAGE 10.9%, of patients admitted to the NGH MAU as hazardous drinkers. The amount of alcohol the patient consumes positively correlated with the score of AUDIT-C (Pearson correlation 0.83). Re-audit is planned to be carried out after integrating AUDIT-C tool as labels in the notes and presenting a brief teaching session to junior doctors. Alcohol misuse screening is not adequately undertaken and no appropriate action is being offered to hazardous drinkers. CAGE questionnaire is poorly applied to patients and when satisfactory and adequately used has low sensitivity to detect hazardous drinkers in comparison with AUDIT-C tool. Re-audit of alcohol screening practice after introducing AUDIT-C tool in clerking sheets (as labels) is required to compare the findings and conclude the audit cycle.

Keywords: alcohol screening, AUDIT-C, CAGE, hazardous drinking

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5466 Review of Strategies for Hybrid Energy Storage Management System in Electric Vehicle Application

Authors: Kayode A. Olaniyi, Adeola A. Ogunleye, Tola M. Osifeko

Abstract:

Electric Vehicles (EV) appear to be gaining increasing patronage as a feasible alternative to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) for having low emission and high operation efficiency. The EV energy storage systems are required to handle high energy and power density capacity constrained by limited space, operating temperature, weight and cost. The choice of strategies for energy storage evaluation, monitoring and control remains a challenging task. This paper presents review of various energy storage technologies and recent researches in battery evaluation techniques used in EV applications. It also underscores strategies for the hybrid energy storage management and control schemes for the improvement of EV stability and reliability. The study reveals that despite the advances recorded in battery technologies there is still no cell which possess both the optimum power and energy densities among other requirements, for EV application. However combination of two or more energy storages as hybrid and allowing the advantageous attributes from each device to be utilized is a promising solution. The review also reveals that State-of-Charge (SoC) is the most crucial method for battery estimation. The conventional method of SoC measurement is however questioned in the literature and adaptive algorithms that include all model of disturbances are being proposed. The review further suggests that heuristic-based approach is commonly adopted in the development of strategies for hybrid energy storage system management. The alternative approach which is optimization-based is found to be more accurate but is memory and computational intensive and as such not recommended in most real-time applications.

Keywords: battery state estimation, hybrid electric vehicle, hybrid energy storage, state of charge, state of health

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
5465 Neural Network based Risk Detection for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia in Sinhala Language Speaking Children

Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

Abstract:

The educational system faces a significant concern with regards to Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, which are learning disabilities impacting reading and writing abilities. This is particularly challenging for children who speak the Sinhala language due to its complexity and uniqueness. Commonly used methods to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia rely on subjective assessments, leading to limited coverage and time-consuming processes. Consequently, delays in diagnoses and missed opportunities for early intervention can occur. To address this issue, the project developed a hybrid model that incorporates various deep learning techniques to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16, and YOLOv8 models were integrated to identify handwriting issues. The outputs of these models were then combined with other input data and fed into an MLP model. Hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, enabling the identification of optimal values for the model. This approach proved to be highly effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention. The Resnet50 model exhibited a training accuracy of 0.9804 and a validation accuracy of 0.9653. The VGG16 model achieved a training accuracy of 0.9991 and a validation accuracy of 0.9891. The MLP model demonstrated impressive results with a training accuracy of 0.99918, a testing accuracy of 0.99223, and a loss of 0.01371. These outcomes showcase the high accuracy achieved by the proposed hybrid model in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, dyslexia, dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

Procedia PDF Downloads 64
5464 Benchmarking Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Hotel Revenue

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
5463 Economic Evaluation of Varying Scenarios to Fulfill the Regional Electricity Demand in Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

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Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

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