Search results for: 2016 U.S. presidential election

Authors: Hale Kirer Silva Lecuna, Beyza Aydin

Abstract:

Health is one of the main components of human capital and sustainable development, and it is very important for economic growth. Health economics, which is an indisputable part of the science of economics, has five stages in general. These are health and development, financing of health services, economic regulation in the health, allocation of resources and efficiency of health services. A well-developed and efficient health sector plays a major role by increasing the level of development of countries. The most crucial pillars of the health sector are the hospitals that are divided into public and private. The main purpose of the hospitals is to provide more efficient services. Therefore the aim is to meet patients’ satisfaction by increasing the service quality. Health-related studies in Turkey date back to the Ottoman and Seljuk Empires. In the near past, Turkey applied 'Health Sector Transformation Programs' under different titles between 2003 and 2010. Our aim in this paper is to measure how effective these transformation programs are for the health sector, to see how much they can increase the efficiency of hospitals over the years, to see the return of investments, to make comments and suggestions on the results, and to provide a new reference for the literature. Within this framework, the public and private hospitals in Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Edirne, Istanbul, Kirklareli, Kocaeli, Sakarya, Tekirdağ, Yalova will be examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for the years between 2000 and 2019. DEA is a linear programming-based technique, which gives relatively good results in multivariate studies. DEA basically estimates an efficiency frontier and make a comparison. Constant returns to scale and variable returns to scale are two most commonly used DEA methods. Both models are divided into two as input and output-oriented. To analyze the data, the number of personnel, number of specialist physicians, number of practitioners, number of beds, number of examinations will be used as input variables; and the number of surgeries, in-patient ratio, and crude mortality rate as output variables. 11 hospitals belonging to the Marmara region were included in the study. It is seen that these hospitals worked effectively only in 7 provinces (Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Edirne, İstanbul, Kırklareli, Yalova) for the year 2001 when no transformation program was implemented. After the transformation program was implemented, for example, in 2014 and 2016, 10 hospitals (Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Edirne, İstanbul, Kocaeli, Kırklareli, Tekirdağ, Yalova) were found to be effective. In 2015, ineffective results were observed for Sakarya, Tekirdağ and Yalova. However, since these values are closer to 1 after the transformation program, we can say that the transformation program has positive effects. For Sakarya alone, no effective results have been achieved in any year. When we look at the results in general, it shows that the transformation program has a positive effect on the effectiveness of hospitals.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, efficiency, health sector, Marmara region

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Anthony S. Machi, Joseph Minardi

Abstract:

We present a case report of left atrial myxoma diagnosed by bedside transesophageal (TEE) ultrasound. Left atrial myxoma is the most common benign cardiac tumor and can obstruct blood flow and cause valvular insufficiency. Common symptoms consist of dyspnea, pulmonary edema and other features of left heart failure in addition to thrombus release in the form of tumor fragments. The availability of bedside ultrasound equipment is essential for the quick diagnosis and treatment of various emergency conditions including cardiac neoplasms. A 48-year-old Caucasian female with a four-year history of an untreated renal mass and anemia presented to the ED with two months of sharp, intermittent, bilateral flank pain radiating into the abdomen. She also reported intermittent vomiting and constipation along with generalized body aches, night sweats, and 100-pound weight loss over last year. She had a CT in 2013 showing a 3 cm left renal mass and a second CT in April 2016 showing a 3.8 cm left renal mass along with a past medical history of diverticulosis, chronic bronchitis, dyspnea on exertion, uncontrolled hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. Her maternal family history is positive for breast cancer, hypertension, and Type II Diabetes. Her paternal family history is positive for stroke. She was a current everyday smoker with an 11 pack/year history. Alcohol and drug use were denied. Physical exam was notable for a Grade II/IV systolic murmur at the right upper sternal border, dyspnea on exertion without angina, and a tender left lower quadrant. Her vitals and labs were notable for a blood pressure of 144/96, heart rate of 96 beats per minute, pulse oximetry of 96%, hemoglobin of 7.6 g/dL, hypokalemia, hypochloremia, and multiple other abnormalities. Physicians ordered a CT to evaluate her flank pain which revealed a 7.2 x 8.9 x 10.5 cm mixed cystic/solid mass in the lower pole of the left kidney and a filling defect in the left atrium. Bedside TEE was ordered to follow up on the filling defect. TEE reported an ejection fraction of 60-65% and visualized a mobile 6 x 3 cm mass in the left atrium attached to the interatrial septum extending into the mitral valve. Cardiothoracic Surgery and Urology were consulted and confirmed a diagnosis of left atrial myxoma and clear cell renal cell carcinoma. The patient returned a week later due to worsening nausea and vomiting and underwent emergent nephrectomy, lymph node dissection, and colostomy due to a necrotic colon. Her condition declined over the next four months due to lung and brain metastases, infections, and other complications until she passed away.

Keywords: bedside ultrasound, echocardiography, emergency medicine, left atrial myxoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Elena Chernyak, Ryan Ceresola

Abstract:

Intimate partner violence is a serious social problem that affects a million women worldwide and impacts their health and wellbeing. Some risk factors for intimate partner violence against women (e.g., disobeying or arguing with a partner, women’s age, education, and employment) are similar in many countries, both developed and developing. However, one of the principal and most significant contributors to women’s vulnerability to violence perpetrated by their intimate partners is the witnessing of interparental aggression in the family of origin. Witnessing interparental violence may lead to acceptance of intimate partner violence as a normal way to resolve conflicts. Thus, utilization of violence becomes the behavioral model: men who witnessed the parental violence are more likely to employ physical violence against their female partners whereas women who observed their fathers beating their mothers learn to tolerate aggressive behavior and become victims of domestic violence themselves. Taking into consideration the importance of this subject matter, the association between witnessing intimate partner violence in family-of-origin and experience of intimate partner violence in adulthood requires further attention. The objective of this research is to analyze and compare the prevalence of intimate partner violence in ten developing countries in different regions, namely: Mali, Haiti, Jordan, Peru, the Philippines, Pakistan, Cambodia, Egypt, the Dominican Republic and Nigeria. Specifically, this research asks whether witnessing interparental violence in a family of origin is associated with the woman’s experience of intimate partner violence during adulthood and to what extent this factor varies among the countries under investigation. This study contributes to the literature on domestic violence against women, prevalence and experience of intimate partner violence against women in developing countries, and the risk factors, using recently collected, nationally representative population-based data from above-mentioned countries. The data used in this research are derived from the demographic and health surveys conducted in the ten mentioned above countries from 2013-2016. These surveys are cross-sectional, nationally representative surveys of ever-married or cohabitating women of reproductive age and the good source of high quality and comprehensive information about women, their children, partners, and households. To complete this analysis, multivariate logistic regression was run for each of the countries, and the results are presented with odds ratios, in order to highlight the effect of witnessing intimate partner violence controlling for other factors. The results of this study indicated that having witnessed partner violence in a family of origin significantly (by 50-500%) increases the likelihood of experiencing later abuse for respondents in all countries. This finding provides robust support for the intergenerational transmission of violence theory that explains the link between interparental aggression and intimate partner violence in subsequent relationships in adulthood as a result of a learned model of behavior observed in childhood. Furthermore, it was found that some of the control variables (e.g., education, number of children, and wealth) are associated with intimate partner violence in some countries under investigation while are not associated with male partner’s abusive behavior in some other, which may be explained by specific cultural and economic factors.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, domestic violence against women, developing countries, demographic and health surveys, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Kaaryn M. Cater

Abstract:

Students with sensory processing sensitivity (SPS), Meares-Irlen Syndrome (MIS) and dyslexia can become overwhelmed and struggle to thrive in traditional tertiary learning environments. An estimated 50% of tertiary students who disclose learning related issues are dyslexic. This study explores the relationship between SPS, MIS and dyslexia. Baseline measures will be analysed to establish any correlation between these three minority methods of information processing. SPS is an innate sensitivity trait found in 15-20% of the population and has been identified in over 100 species of animals. Humans with SPS are referred to as Highly Sensitive People (HSP) and the measure of HSP is a 27 point self-test known as the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (HSPS). A 2016 study conducted by the author established base-line data for HSP students in a tertiary institution in New Zealand. The results of the study showed that all participating HSP students believed the knowledge of SPS to be life-changing and useful in managing life and study, in addition, they believed that all tutors and in-coming students should be given information on SPS. MIS is a visual processing and perception disorder that is found in approximately 10% of the population and has a variety of symptoms including visual fatigue, headaches and nausea. One way to ease some of these symptoms is through the use of colored lenses or overlays. Dyslexia is a complex phonological based information processing variation present in approximately 10% of the population. An estimated 50% of dyslexics are thought to have MIS. The study exploring possible correlations between these minority forms of information processing is due to begin in February 2017. An invitation will be extended to all first year students enrolled in degree programmes across all faculties and schools within the institution. An estimated 900 students will be eligible to participate in the study. Participants will be asked to complete a battery of on-line questionnaires including the Highly Sensitive Person Scale, the International Dyslexia Association adult self-assessment and the adapted Irlen indicator. All three scales have been used extensively in literature and have been validated among many populations. All participants whose score on any (or some) of the three questionnaires suggest a minority method of information processing will receive an invitation to meet with a learning advisor, and given access to counselling services if they choose. Meeting with a learning advisor is not mandatory, and some participants may choose not to receive help. Data will be collected using the Question Pro platform and base-line data will be analysed using correlation and regression analysis to identify relationships and predictors between SPS, MIS and dyslexia. This study forms part of a larger three year longitudinal study and participants will be required to complete questionnaires at annual intervals in subsequent years of the study until completion of (or withdrawal from) their degree. At these data collection points, participants will be questioned on any additional support received relating to their minority method(s) of information processing. Data from this study will be available by April 2017.

Keywords: dyslexia, highly sensitive person (HSP), Meares-Irlen Syndrome (MIS), minority forms of information processing, sensory processing sensitivity (SPS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: K. C. Sharda

Abstract:

Introduction: In the world, almost half of the population are lacking proper access to improved sanitation services. In Nepal, large number of people are living without access to any sanitation facility. Ecological sanitation toilet which is defined as water conserving and nutrient recycling system for use of human urine and excreta in agriculture would count a lot to utilize locally available resources, to regenerate soil fertility, to save national currency and to achieve the goal of elimination open defecation in country like Nepal. The objectives of the research were to test the efficacy of human urine for improving crop performance and to evaluate the feasibility of ecological sanitation in rural area of Central Nepal. Materials and Methods: The field investigation was carried out at Palung Village Development Committee (VDC) of Makawanpur District, Nepal from March – August, 2016. Five eco-san toilets in two villages (Angare and Bhot Khoriya) were constructed and questionnaire survey was carried out. During the questionnaire survey, respondents were asked about socio-economic parameters, farming practices, awareness of ecological sanitation and fertilizer value of human urine and excreta in agriculture. In prior to a field experiment, soil was sampled for analysis of basic characteristics. In the field experiment, cauliflower was cultivated for a month in the two sites to compare the fertilizer value of urine with chemical fertilizer and no fertilizer with three replications. The harvested plant samples were analyzed to understand the nutrient content in plant with different treatments. Results and Discussion: Eighty three percent respondents were engaged in agriculture growing mainly vegetables, which may raise the feasibility of ecological sanitation. In the study area, water deficiencies in dry season, high demand of chemical fertilizer, lack of sanitation awareness were found to be solved. The soil at Angare has sandier texture and lower nitrogen content compared to that in Bhot Khoriya. While the field experiment in Angare showed that the aboveground biomass of cauliflower in the urine fertilized plot were similar with that in the chemically fertilized plot and higher than those in the non-fertilized plots, no significant difference among the treatments were found in Bhot Khoriya. The more distinctive response of crop growth to the three treatments in the former might be attributed to the poorer soil productivity, which in turn could be caused by the poorer inherent soil fertility and the poorer past management by the farmer in Angare. Thus, use of urine as fertilizer could help poor farmers with low quality soil. The significantly different content of nitrogen and potassium in the plant samples among three treatments in Bhot Khoriya would require further investigation. When urine is utilized as a fertilizer, the productivity could be increased and the money to buy chemical fertilizer would be utilized in other livelihood activities. Ecological sanitation is feasible in the area with similar socio-economic parameter.

Keywords: cauliflower, chemical fertilizer, ecological sanitation, Nepal, urine

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Francisco Vidal Vázquez, Pekka Simell, Christian Frilund, Matti Reinikainen, Ilkka Hiltunen, Tim Böltken, Benjamin Andris, Paolo Piermartini

Abstract:

Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are one of the key topics in mitigation of CO2 emissions. There are many different technologies that are applied for the production of diverse chemicals from CO2 such as synthetic natural gas, Fischer-Tropsch products, methanol and polymers. Power-to-Gas and Power-to-Liquids concepts arise as a synergetic solution for storing energy and producing value added products from the intermittent renewable energy sources and CCU. VTT is a research and technology development company having energy in transition as one of the key focus areas. VTT has extensive experience in piloting and upscaling of new energy and chemical processes. Recently, VTT has developed and commissioned a Mobile Synthesis Unit (MOBSU) in close collaboration with INERATEC, a spin-off company of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT, Germany). The MOBSU is a multipurpose synthesis unit for CO2 upgrading to energy carriers and chemicals, which can be transported on-site where CO2 emission and renewable energy are available. The MOBSU is initially used for production of fuel compounds and chemical intermediates by combination of two consecutive processes: reverse Water-Gas Shift (rWGS) and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FT). First, CO2 is converted to CO by high-pressure rWGS and then, the CO and H2 rich effluent is used as feed for FT using an intensified reactor technology developed and designed by INERATEC. Chemical equilibrium of rWGS reaction is not affected by pressure. Nevertheless, compression would be required in between rWGS and FT in the case when rWGS is operated at atmospheric pressure. This would also require cooling of rWGS effluent, water removal and reheating. For that reason, rWGS is operated using precious metal catalyst in the MOBSU at similar pressure as FT to simplify the process. However, operating rWGS at high pressures has also some disadvantages such as methane and carbon formation, and more demanding specifications for materials. The main parts of FT module are an intensified reactor, a hot trap to condense the FT wax products, and a cold trap to condense the FT liquid products. The FT synthesis is performed using cobalt catalyst in a novel compact reactor technology with integrated highly-efficient water evaporation cooling cycle. The MOBSU started operation in November 2016. First, the FT module is tested using as feedstock H2 and CO. Subsequently, rWGS and FT modules are operated together using CO2 and H2 as feedstock of ca. 5 Nm3/hr total flowrate. On spring 2017, The MOBSU unit will be integrated together with a direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 unit, and a PEM electrolyser unit at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) premises for demonstration of the SoletAir concept. This would be the first time when synthetic fuels are produced by combination of DAC unit and electrolyser unit which uses solar power for H2 production.

Keywords: CO2 utilization, demonstration, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, intensified reactors, reverse water-gas shift

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Lilian Nantume Wampande

Abstract:

Group-based strategies in the delivery of HIV care have opened up new avenues not only for meaningful participation for HIV positive people but also platforms for deconstruction and reconstruction of knowledge about living with the virus. Yet the contributions of such strategies among patients who live in high risk areas are still not explored. This case study research assessed the impact of HIV support networks on sexual health outcomes of HIV positive out-of-school adolescents residing in fishing islands of Kalangala in Uganda. The study population was out-of-school adolescents living with HIV and their sexual partners (n=269), members of their households (n=80) and their health service providers (n=15). Data were collected via structured interviews, observations and focus group discussions between August 2016 and March 2017. Data was then analyzed inductively to extract key themes related to the approaches and outcomes of the groups’ activities. The study findings indicate that support groups unite HIV positive adolescents in a bid for social renegotiation to achieve change but individual constraints surpass the groups’ intentions. Some adolescents for example reported increased fear which led to failure to cope, sexual violence, self-harm and denial of status as a result of the high expectations placed on them as members of the support groups. Further investigations around this phenomenon show that HIV networks play a monotonous role as information sources for HIV positive out-of-school adolescents which limit their creativity to seek information elsewhere. Results still indicate that HIV adolescent groups recognize the complexity of long-term treatment and stay in care leading to improved immunity for the majority yet; there is still scattered evidence about how effective they are among adolescents at different phases in the disease trajectory. Nevertheless, the primary focus of developing adolescent self-efficacy and coping skills significantly address a range of disclosure difficulties and supports autonomy. Moreover, the peer techniques utilized in addition to the almost homogeneous group characteristics accelerates positive confidence, hope and belongingness. Adolescent HIV-support groups therefore have the capacity to both improve and/or worsen sexual health outcomes for a young adolescent who is out-of-school. Communication interventions that seek to increase awareness about ‘self’ should therefore be emphasized more than just fostering collective action. Such interventions should be sensitive to context and gender. In addition, facilitative support supervision done by close and trusted health care providers, most preferably Village Health Teams (who are often community elected volunteers) would help to follow-up, mentor, encourage and advise this young adolescent in matters involving sexuality and health outcomes. HIV/AIDS prevention programs have extended their efforts beyond individual focus to those that foster collective action, but programs should rekindle interpersonal level strategies to address the complexity of individual behavior.

Keywords: adolescent, HIV, support groups, Uganda

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Leonardo Parra, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Andrés Quiroz

Abstract:

One of the most important factors in beef and dairy production in the world as well as also in Chile, is related to the correct choice of cultivars or mixtures of forage grasses and legumes to ensure high yields and quality of grassland. However, a great problem is the persistence of the grasses as a result of the action of different hypogeous as epigean pests. The complex insect pests associated with grassland include white grubs (Hylamorpha elegans, Phytoloema herrmanni), blackworm (Dalaca pallens) and Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis). In Chile, the principal strategy utilized for controlling this pest is chemical control, through the use of synthetic insecticides, however, underground feeding habits of larval and flight activity of adults makes this uneconomic method. Furthermore, due to problems including environmental degradation, development of resistance and chemical residues, there is a worldwide interest in the use of alternative environmentally friendly pest control methods. In this sense, in recent years there has been an increasing interest in determining the role of endophyte fungi in controlling epigean and hypogeous pest. Endophytes from ryegrass (Lolium perenne), establish a biotrophic relationship with the host, defined as mutualistic symbiosis. The plant-fungi association produces a “cocktail of alkaloids” where peramine is the main toxic substance present in endophyte of ryegrass and responsible for damage reduction of L. bonariensis. In the last decade, few studies have been developed on the effectiveness of new ryegrass cultivars carriers of endophyte in controlling insect pests. Therefore, the aim of this research is to provide knowledge concerning to evaluate the alkaloid content, such as peramine and Lolitrem B, present in new experimental lines of ryegrass and feasible to be used in grasslands of southern Chile. For this, during 2016, ryegrass plants of six experimental lines and two commercial cultivars sown at the Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias Carrillanca (Vilcún, Chile) were collected and subjected to a process of chemical extraction to identify and quantify the presence of peramine and lolitrem B by the technique of liquid chromatography of high resolution (HPLC). The results indicated that the experimental lines EL-1 and EL-3 had high content of peramine (0.25 and 0.43 ppm, respectively) than with lolitrem B (0.061 and 0.19 ppm, respectively). Furthermore, the higher contents of lolitrem B were detected in the EL-4 and commercial cultivar Alto (positive control) with 0.08 and 0.17 ppm, respectively. Peramine and lolitrem B were not detected in the cultivar Jumbo (negative control). These results suggest that EL-3 would have potential as future cultivate because it has high content of peramine, alkaloid responsible for controlling insect pest. However, their current role on the complex insects attacking ryegrass grasslands should be evaluated. The information obtained in this research could be used to improve control strategies against hypogeous and epigean pests of grassland in southern Chile and also to reduce the use of synthetic pesticides.

Keywords: HPLC, Lolitrem B, peramine, pest

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

Abstract:

In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Jeremy Ritchey

Abstract:

Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. face many challenges when looking to progress in society, especially when pursuing post-secondary education. The majority of research done on state-level policy adoption pertaining to undocumented higher-education pursuits, specifically in-state resident tuition and financial aid eligibility policies, have framed the discussion on the potential and actual impacts which implementation can and has achieved. What is missing is a model to view the social, political and demographic landscapes upon which such policies (in their various forms) find a route to legislative enactment. This research looks to address this gap in the field by investigating the correlations and significant state-level variables which can be operationalized to construct a framework for adoption of these specific policies. In the process, analysis will show that past unexamined conceptualizations of how such policies come to fruition may be limited or contradictory when compared to available data. Circling on the principles of Policy Innovation and Policy Diffusion theory, this study looks to use variables collected via Michigan State University’s Correlates of State Policy Project, a collectively and ongoing compiled database project centered around annual variables (1900-2016) collected from all 50 states relevant to policy research. Using established variable groupings (demographic, political, social capital measurements, and educational system measurements) from the time period of 2000 to 2014 (2001 being when such policies began), one can see how this data correlates with the adoption of policies related to undocumented students and in-state college tuition. After regression analysis, the results will illuminate which variables appears significant and to what effect, as to help formulate a model upon which to explain when adoption appears to occur and when it does not. Early results have shown that traditionally held conceptions on conservative and liberal identities of the state, as they relate to the likelihood of such policies being adopted, did not fall in line with the collected data. Democratic and liberally identified states were, overall, less likely to adopt pro-undocumented higher education policies than Republican and conservatively identified states and vis versa. While further analysis is needed as to improve the model’s explanatory power, preliminary findings are showing promise in widening our understanding of policy adoption factors in this realm of policies compared to the gap of such knowledge in the publications of the field as it currently exists. The model also looks to serve as an important tool for policymakers in framing such potential policies in a way that is congruent with the relevant state-level determining factors while being sensitive to the most apparent sources of potential friction. While additional variable groups and individual variables will ultimately need to be added and controlled for, this research has already begun to demonstrate how shallow or unexamined reasoning behind policy adoption in the realm of this topic needs to be addressed or else the risk is erroneous conceptions leaking into the foundation of this growing and ever important field.

Keywords: policy adoption, in-state tuition, higher education, undocumented immigrants

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Aritra Das, Tanmay Mahapatra, Prabir Maharana, Sridhar Srikantiah

Abstract:

In the absence of adequate well-equipped neonatal-care facilities serving rural Bihar, India, the practice of essential home-based newborn-care remains critically important for reduction of neonatal and infant mortality, especially among pre-term and small-for-gestational-age (Low-birth-weight) newborns. To improve the child health parameters in Bihar, ‘Very-Low-Birth-Weight (vLBW) Tracking’ intervention is being conducted by CARE India, since 2015, targeting public facility-delivered newborns weighing ≤2000g at birth, to improve their identification and provision of immediate post-natal care. To assess the effectiveness of the intervention, 200 public health facilities were randomly selected from all functional public-sector delivery points in Bihar and various outcomes were tracked among the neonates born there. Thus far, one pre-intervention (Feb-Apr’2015-born neonates) and three post-intervention (for Sep-Oct’2015, Sep-Oct’2016 and Sep-Oct’2017-born children) follow-up studies were conducted. In each round, interviews were conducted with the mothers/caregivers of successfully-tracked children to understand outcome, service-coverage and care-seeking during the neonatal period. Data from 171 matched facilities common across all rounds were analyzed using SAS-9.4. Identification of neonates with birth-weight ≤ 2000g improved from 2% at baseline to 3.3%-4% during post-intervention. All indicators pertaining to post-natal home-visits by frontline-workers (FLWs) improved. Significant improvements between baseline and post-intervention rounds were also noted regarding mothers being informed about ‘weak’ child – at the facility (R1 = 25 to R4 = 50%) and at home by FLW (R1 = 19%, to R4 = 30%). Practice of ‘Kangaroo-Mother-Care (KMC)’– an important component of essential newborn care – showed significant improvement in postintervention period compared to baseline in both facility (R1 = 15% to R4 = 31%) and home (R1 = 10% to R4=29%). Increasing trend was noted regarding detection and birth weight-recording of the extremely low-birth-weight newborns (< 1500 g) showed an increasing trend. Moreover, there was a downward trend in mortality across rounds, in each birth-weight strata (< 1500g, 1500-1799g and >= 1800g). After adjustment for the differential distribution of birth-weights, mortality was found to decline significantly from R1 (22.11%) to R4 (11.87%). Significantly declining trend was also observed for both early and late neonatal mortality and morbidities. Multiple regression analysis identified - birth during immediate post-intervention phase as well as that during the maintenance phase, birth weight > 1500g, children of low-parity mothers, receiving visit from FLW in the first week and/or receiving advice on extra care from FLW as predictors of survival during neonatal period among vLBW newborns. vLBW tracking was found to be a successful and sustainable intervention and has already been handed over to the Government.

Keywords: weak newborn tracking, very low birth weight babies, newborn care, community response

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Kitoholi V. Zhimo

Abstract:

Unlike the cases of cases of homosexuals, haemophilic and or drug users in USA, France, Africa and other countries, in India the first case of HIV/AIDS was detected in heterosexual female sex workers (FSW) in Chennai in 1986. This image played an important role in understanding HIV/AIDS scenario in the country. Similar to popular and dominant metaphors on HIV/AIDS such as ‘gay plague’, ‘new cancer’, ‘lethal disease’, ‘slim disease’, ‘foreign disease’, ‘junkie disease’, etc. around the world, the social construction of the virus was largely attributed to women in India. It was established that women particularly sex workers are ‘carrier’ and ‘transmitter’ of virus and were categorised as High Risk Groups (HRG’s) alongside homosexuals, transgenders and injecting drug users. Recent literature reveals growing rate of HIV infection among housewives since 1997 which revolutionised public health scenario in India. This means shift from high risk group to general public through ‘bridge population’ encompassing long distance truckers and migrant labours who at the expense of their nature of work and mobility comes in contact with HRG’s and transmit the virus to the general public especially women who are confined to the domestic space. As HIV epidemic expands, married women in monogamous relationship/marriage stand highly susceptible to infection with limited control, right and access over their sexual and reproductive health and planning. In context of Nagaland, a small state in North-eastern part of India HIV/AIDS transmission through injecting drug use dominated the early scene of the epidemic. However, paradigm shift occurred with declining trend of HIV prevalence among injecting drug users (IDU’s) over the past years with the introduction of Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) and easy access/availability of syringes and injecting needles. Reflection on statistical data reveals that out of 36 states and union territories in India, the position of Nagaland in HIV prevalence among IDU’s has significantly dropped down from 6th position in 2003 to 16th position in 2017. The present face of virus in Nagaland is defined by (hetero) sexual mode of transmission which accounts for about 91% of as reported by Nagaland state AIDS control society (NSACS) in 2016 wherein young and married woman were found to be most affected leading to feminization of HIV/AIDS epidemic in the state. Thus, not only is HIV epidemic feminised but emerged victim to domestic violence which is more often accepted as normal part of heterosexual relationship. In the backdrop of these understanding, the present paper based on ethnographic fieldwork explores the plight, lived experiences and images of HIV+ve women with regard to sexual and reproductive rights against the backdrop of patriarchal system in Nagaland.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, monogamy, Nagaland, sex worker disease, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Bozena Tyliszczak, Anna Drabczyk, Sonia Kudlacik-Kramarczyk, Agnieszka Sobczak-Kupiec

Abstract:

Introduction: Nanomaterials become one of the leading materials in the synthesis of various compounds. This is a reason for the fact that nano-size materials exhibit other properties compared to their macroscopic equivalents. Such a change in size is reflected in a change in optical, electric or mechanical properties. Among nanomaterials, particular attention is currently directed into gold nanoparticles. They find application in a wide range of areas including cosmetology or pharmacy. Additionally, nanogold may be a component of modern wound dressings, which antibacterial activity is beneficial in the viewpoint of the wound healing process. Specific properties of this type of nanomaterials result in the fact that they may also be applied in cancer treatment. Studies on the development of new techniques of the delivery of drugs are currently an important research subject of many scientists. This is due to the fact that along with the development of such fields of science as medicine or pharmacy, the need for better and more effective methods of administering drugs is constantly growing. The solution may be the use of drug carriers. These are materials that combine with the active substance and lead it directly to the desired place. A role of such a carrier may be played by gold nanoparticles that are able to covalently bond with many organic substances. This allows the combination of nanoparticles with active substances. Therefore gold nanoparticles are widely used in the preparation of nanocomposites that may be used for medical purposes with special emphasis on drug delivery. Methodology: As part of the presented research, synthesis of composites was carried out. The mentioned composites consisted of the polymer matrix and gold nanoparticles that were introduced into the polymer network. The synthesis was conducted with the use of a crosslinking agent, and photoinitiator and the materials were obtained by means of the photopolymerization process. Next, incubation studies were conducted using selected liquids that simulated fluids are occurring in the human body. The study allows determining the biocompatibility of the tested composites in relation to selected environments. Next, the chemical structure of the composites was characterized as well as their sorption properties. Conclusions: Conducted research allowed for the preliminary characterization of prepared polymer composites containing gold nanoparticles in the viewpoint of their application for biomedical use. Tested materials were characterized by biocompatibility in tested environments. What is more, synthesized composites exhibited relatively high swelling capacity that is essential in the viewpoint of their potential application as drug carriers. During such an application, composite swells and at the same time releases from its interior introduced active substance; therefore, it is important to check the swelling ability of such material. Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank The National Science Centre (Grant no: UMO - 2016/21/D/ST8/01697) for providing financial support to this project. This paper is based upon work from COST Action (CA18113), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: nanocomposites, gold nanoparticles, drug carriers, swelling properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Omar Nouri, Wafa Mnejja, Fatma Dhouib, Syrine Zouari, Wicem Siala, Ilhem Charfeddine, Afef Khanfir, Leila Farhat, Nejla Fourati, Jamel Daoud

Abstract:

Purpose and Objective: Intensity modulated radiation (IMRT) technique, associated with induction chemotherapy (IC) and/or concomitant chemotherapy (CC), is actually the recommended treatment modality for nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the therapeutic results and the patterns of relapse with this treatment protocol. Material and methods: A retrospective monocentric study of 145 patients with NPC treated between June 2016 and July 2021. All patients received IMRT with integrated simultaneous boost (SIB) of 33 daily fractions at a dose of 69.96 Gy for high-risk volume, 60 Gy for intermediate risk volume and 54 Gy for low-risk volume. The high-risk volume dose was 66.5 Gy in children. Survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Log-rank test was used to compare factors that may influence survival. Results: Median age was 48 years (11-80) with a sex ratio of 2.9. One hundred-twenty tumors (82.7%) were classified as stages III-IV according to the 2017 UICC TNM classification. Ten patients (6.9%) were metastatic at diagnosis. One hundred-thirty-five patient (93.1%) received IC, 104 of which (77%) were TPF-based (taxanes, cisplatin and 5 fluoro-uracil). One hundred-thirty-eight patient (95.2%) received CC, mostly cisplatin in 134 cases (97%). After a median follow-up of 50 months [22-82], 46 patients (31.7%) had a relapse: 12 (8.2%) experienced local and/or regional relapse after a median of 18 months [6-43], 29 (20%) experienced distant relapse after a median of 9 months [2-24] and 5 patients (3.4%) had both. Thirty-five patients (24.1%) died, including 5 (3.4%) from a cause other than their cancer. Three-year overall survival (OS), cancer specific survival, disease free survival, metastasis free survival and loco-regional free survival were respectively 78.1%, 81.3%, 67.8%, 74.5% and 88.1%. Anatomo-clinic factors predicting OS were age > 50 years (88.7 vs. 70.5%; p=0.004), diabetes history (81.2 vs. 66.7%; p=0.027), UICC N classification (100 vs. 95 vs. 77.5 vs. 68.8% respectively for N0, N1, N2 and N3; p=0.008), the practice of a lymph node biopsy (84.2 vs. 57%; p=0.05), and UICC TNM stages III-IV (93.8 vs. 73.6% respectively for stage I-II vs. III-IV; p=0.044). Therapeutic factors predicting OS were a number of CC courses (less than 4 courses: 65.8 vs. 86%; p=0.03, less than 5 courses: 71.5 vs. 89%; p=0.041), a weight loss > 10% during treatment (84.1 vs. 60.9%; p=0.021) and a total cumulative cisplatin dose, including IC and CC, < 380 mg/m² (64.4 vs. 87.6%; p=0.003). Radiotherapy delay and total duration did not significantly affect OS. No grade 3-4 late side effects were noted in the evaluable 127 patients (87.6%). The most common toxicity was dry mouth which was grade 2 in 47 cases (37%) and grade 1 in 55 cases (43.3%).Conclusion: IMRT for nasopharyngeal carcinoma granted a high loco-regional control rate for patients during the last five years. However, distant relapses remain frequent and conditionate the prognosis. We identified many anatomo-clinic and therapeutic prognosis factors. Therefore, high-risk patients require a more aggressive therapeutic approach, such as radiotherapy dose escalation or adding adjuvant chemotherapy.

Keywords: therapeutic results, prognostic factors, intensity-modulated radiotherapy, nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Maria Luiza Fulga, Georgeta Truca, Mihaela Alexandru, Andriescu Mariana, Crin Marcean

Abstract:

The significance of nursing as a subject in the post-secondary healthcare curriculum is a major. We aimed to enable our students to assess the patient's risk, to establish prevention measures and to adapt to a specific learning context, in order to acquire the skills and abilities necessary for the nursing profession. In order to achieve these objectives, during the three years of study, teachers put an emphasis on acquiring communication skills, because in our country after the first cycle of hospital accreditation concluded in 2016, the National Authority for Quality of Health Management has introduced the criteria for the implementation and application of the nursing process according to the accreditation standards. According to these requirements, the nurse has to carry out the nursing assessment, based on communication as a distinct component, so that they can identify nursing diagnoses and implement the nursing plan. In this respect, we, the teachers, have refocused, by approaching various teaching strategies and preparing students for the real context of learning and applying what they learn. In the educational process, the tutors in the hospitals have an important role to play in acquiring professional skills. Students perform their activity in the hospital in accordance with the curriculum, in order to verify the practical applicability of the theoretical knowledge acquired in the school classes and also have the opportunity to acquire their skills in a real learning context. In clinical education, the student nurse learns in the middle of a guidance team which includes a practice tutor, who is a nurse that takes responsibility for the practical/clinical learning of the students in their field of activity. In achieving this objective, the tutor's abilities involve pedagogical knowledge, knowledge for the good of the individual and nursing theory, in order to be able to guide clinical practice in accordance with current requirements. The aim of this study is to find out the students’ confidence level in practice tutors in hospitals, the students’ degree of satisfaction in the pedagogical skills of the tutors and the practical applicability of the theoretical knowledge. In this study, we used as a method of investigation a student satisfaction questionnaire regarding the clinical practice in the hospital and the sample of the survey consisted of 100 students aged between 20 and 50 years, from the first, second and third year groups, with the General Nurse specialty (nurses responsible for general care), from 'Fundeni' Healthcare Post-Secondary School, Bucharest, Romania. Following the analysis of the data provided, we arrived the conclusion that the hospital tutor needs to improve his/her pedagogical skills, the knowledge of nursing diagnostics, and the implementation of the nursing plan, so that the applicability of the theoretical notions would be increased. Future plans include the pedagogical training of the medical staff, as well as updating the knowledge needed to implement the nursing process in order to meet current requirements.

Keywords: clinical training, nursing process, pedagogical skills, tutor

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Rida Wanbha Nongbri, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

Abstract:

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2016-2030 were adopted in response to Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which focused on access to sustainable water and sanitations. For over a decade, water has been a significant subject that is explored in various facets of life. Our day-to-day life is significantly impacted by water poverty at the socio-economic level. Reducing water poverty is an important policy challenge, particularly in emerging economies like India, owing to its population growth, huge variation in topology and climatic factors. To design appropriate water policies and its effectiveness, a proper measurement of water poverty is essential. In this backdrop, this study uses the Alkire Foster (AF) methodology to estimate a multidimensional water poverty index for India at the household level. The methodology captures several attributes to understand the complex issues related to households’ water deprivation. The study employs two rounds of Indian Human Development Survey data (IHDS 2005 and 2012) which focuses on 4 dimensions of water poverty including water access, water quantity, water quality, and water capacity, and seven indicators capturing these four dimensions. In order to quantify water deprivation at the household level, an AF dual cut-off counting method is applied and Multidimensional Water Poverty Index (MWPI) is calculated as the product of Headcount Ratio (Incidence) and average share of weighted dimension (Intensity). The results identify deprivation across all dimensions at the country level and show that a large proportion of household in India is deprived of quality water and suffers from water access in both 2005 and 2012 survey rounds. The comparison between the rural and urban households shows that higher ratio of the rural households are multidimensionally water poor as compared to their urban counterparts. Among the four dimensions of water poverty, water quality is found to be the most significant one for both rural and urban households. In 2005 round, almost 99.3% of households are water poor for at least one of the four dimensions, and among the water poor households, the intensity of water poverty is 54.7%. These values do not change significantly in 2012 round, but we could observe significance differences across the dimensions. States like Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are ranked the most in terms of MWPI, whereas Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Chandigarh are ranked the lowest in 2005 round. Similarly, in 2012 round, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa rank the highest in terms of MWPI, whereas Goa, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh rank the lowest. The policy implications of this study can be multifaceted. It can urge the policy makers to focus either on the impoverished households with lower intensity levels of water poverty to minimize total number of water poor households or can focus on those household with high intensity of water poverty to achieve an overall reduction in MWPI.

Keywords: .alkire-foster (AF) methodology, deprivation, dual cut-off, multidimensional water poverty index (MWPI)

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Filip Varga, Nina Jeran, Martina Biosic, Zlatko Satovic, Martina Grdisa

Abstract:

Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir./ Sch. Bip.), a species endemic to the eastern Adriatic coastline, is the source of natural insecticide pyrethrin. Pyrethrin is a mixture of six compounds (pyrethrin I and II, cinerin I and II, jasmolin I and II) that exhibits high insecticidal activity with no detrimental effects to the environment. A recently optimized matrix-solid phase dispersion method (MSPD), using florisil as the sorbent, acetone-ethyl acetate (1:1, v/v) as the elution solvent, and sodium sulfate anhydrous as the drying agent was utilized to extract the pyrethrins from 10 wild populations (20 individuals per population) distributed along the Croatian coast. All six components in the extracts were qualitatively and quantitatively determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). Pearson’s correlation index was calculated between pyrethrin compounds, and differences between the populations using the analysis of variance were tested. Additionally, the correlation of each pyrethrin component with spatio-ecological variables (bioclimate, soil properties, elevation, solar radiation, and distance from the coastline) was calculated. Total pyrethrin content ranged from 0.10% to 1.35% of dry flower weight, averaging 0.58% across all individuals. Analysis of variance revealed significant differences between populations based on all six pyrethrin compounds and total pyrethrin content. On average, the lowest total pyrethrin content was found in the population from Pelješac peninsula (0.22% of dry flower weight) in which total pyrethrin content lower than 0.18% was detected in 55% of the individuals. The highest average total pyrethrin content was observed in the population from island Zlarin (0.87% of dry flower weight), in which total pyrethrin content higher than 1.00% was recorded in only 30% of the individuals. Pyrethrin I/pyrethrin II ratio as a measure of extract quality ranged from 0.21 (population from the island Čiovo) to 5.88 (population from island Mali Lošinj) with an average of 1.77 across all individuals. By far, the lowest quality of extracts was found in the population from Mt. Biokovo (pyrethrin I/II ratio lower than 0.72 in 40% of individuals) due to the high pyrethrin II content typical for this population. Pearson’s correlation index revealed a highly significant positive correlation between pyrethrin I content and total pyrethrin content and a strong negative correlation between pyrethrin I and pyrethrin II. The results of this research clearly indicate high intra- and interpopulation diversity of Dalmatian pyrethrum with regards to pyrethrin content and composition. The information obtained has potential use in plant genetic resources conservation and biodiversity monitoring. Possibly the largest potential lies in designing breeding programs aimed at increasing pyrethrin content in commercial breeding lines and reintroduction in agriculture in Croatia. Acknowledgment: This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project ‘Genetic background of Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir/ Sch. Bip.) insecticidal potential’ - (PyrDiv) (IP-06-2016-9034).

Keywords: Dalmatian pyrethrum, HPLC, MSPD, pyrethrin

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Sookbin Im, Myounglyun Heo

Abstract:

This study aims at analyzing composition and effects of the preliminary intervention to promote resiliency of children whose parents suffer mental illness, and considerations according to the program, and developing the resiliency promotion program for children of psychiatric patients. For participants of preliminary intervention, they were recruited through a community mental health and social welfare center in a city, and there were 10 children (eight girls and two boys) who are from second to five graders in elementary school, and whose parents suffer schizophrenia, depression, or alcoholism, etc. The program was conducted in the seminar room of the community mental illness and social welfare center from October to December 2015 and from July to September 2016. The elements of resiliency were figured out by reviewing the literature. And therapeutic activities to promote resiliency was composed, and total twice, 8 sessions(two hours, once a week) were applied. Each session consisted of playgroup activities, art activities, and role-playing with feedback for achieving goals to promote self-awareness, self-efficacy, positive outlook, ability to solve problems, empathy for others, peer group acceptance, having goals and aspirations, and assertiveness. In addition, auxiliary managers as many as children played a role as mentor and role model, and children's behaviors were collected by participatory observation. As a result of the study, four children quit the program because the schedules of their own school programs were overlapped with it. Therefore, six children completed the program. Children who completed it became active, positive, decreased compulsive actions, and increased self-expressions. The participants reacted the 8-session program is too short and regretted about it. However, recruiting the participants were difficult, and too distracting children caused negative influences in the group activities. Based on the results, the program was developed as follows: The program would consist of total 11 sessions, and the first eight sessions would be made of plays, art activities, role-plays, and presentations for promoting self-understanding, improving positiveness, providing meaning for experiences, emotional control, and interpersonal relations. In order to balance various contents, methods such as structuring environments, storytelling, emotional coaching, and group feedback would be applied, and the ninth to eleventh sessions would be booster sessions consisting of optional activities for children. This program is for children who attend school with active linguistic communications and interactions with peers. Especially, considering that effective development starts at around 10 years old, it would be for children who are third and fourth graders in elementary school. These result showed that this program was useful for improving the key elements of resiliency such as positive thinking or impulse control. It is suggested the necessary of resiliency promoting program model and practical guidance with comprehensive measuring methods(narratives, drawing, self-reported questionnaire, behavioral observation). Also, it is necessary to make a training program for the coaches or leaders to operate this program to spread out for child health.

Keywords: children, mental, parents, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

Abstract:

Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: S. J. Kim, Y. J. Yoo

Abstract:

Slack-tide sampling was carried out at seven stations at high and low tides for a tidal cycle, in summer (7, 8, 9) and fall (10), 2016 to determine the differences of water quality according to tides in Masan Bay. The data were analyzed by Pearson correlation and factor analysis. The mixing state of all the water quality components investigated is well explained by the correlation with salinity (SAL). Turbidity (TURB), dissolved silica (DSi), nitrite and nitrate nitrogen (NNN) and total nitrogen (TN), which find their way into the bay from the streams and have no internal source and sink reaction, showed a strong negative correlation with SAL at low tide, indicating the property of conservative mixing. On the contrary, in summer and fall, dissolved oxygen (DO), hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and chemical oxygen demand with KMnO4 (CODMn) of the surface and bottom water, which were sensitive to an internal source and sink reaction, showed no significant correlation with SAL at high and low tides. The remaining water quality parameters showed a conservative or a non-conservative mixing pattern depending on the mixing characteristics at high and low tides, determined by the functional relationship between the changes of the flushing time and the changes of the characteristics of water quality components of the end-members in the bay. Factor analysis performed on the concentration difference data sets between high and low tides helped in identifying the principal latent variables for them. The concentration differences varied spatially and temporally. Principal factors (PFs) scores plots for each monitoring situation showed high associations of the variations to the monitoring sites. At sampling station 1 (ST1), temperature (TEMP), SAL, DSi, TURB, NNN and TN of the surface water in summer, TEMP, SAL, DSi, DO, TURB, NNN, TN, reactive soluble phosphorus (RSP) and total phosphorus (TP) of the bottom water in summer, TEMP, pH, SAL, DSi, DO, TURB, CODMn, particulate organic carbon (POC), ammonia nitrogen (AMN), NNN, TN and fecal coliform (FC) of the surface water in fall, TEMP, pH, SAL, DSi, H2S, TURB, CODMn, AMN, NNN and TN of the bottom water in fall commonly showed up as the most significant parameters and the large concentration differences between high and low tides. At other stations, the significant parameters showed differently according to the spatial and temporal variations of mixing pattern in the bay. In fact, there is no estuary that always maintains steady-state flow conditions. The mixing regime of an estuary might be changed at any time from linear to non-linear, due to the change of flushing time according to the combination of hydrogeometric properties, inflow of freshwater and tidal action, And furthermore the change of end-member conditions due to the internal sinks and sources makes the occurrence of concentration difference inevitable. Therefore, when investigating the water quality of the estuary, it is necessary to take a sampling method considering the tide to obtain average water quality data.

Keywords: conservative mixing, end-member, factor analysis, flushing time, high and low tide, latent variables, non-conservative mixing, slack-tide sampling, spatial and temporal variations, surface and bottom water

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

Abstract:

Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

Abstract:

Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: R. S. Giraddi, B. Thirupam Reddy, D. N. Kambrekar

Abstract:

Chilli (Capsicum annum L.) an important commercial vegetable crop is ravaged by a number of insect-pests during both vegetative and reproductive phase resulting into significant crop loss.Thrips, Scirtothripsdorsalis, mite, Polyphagotarsonemuslatus and whitefly, Bemisiatabaci are the key sap feeding insects, their infestation leads to leaf curl, stunted growth and yield loss.During flowering and fruit formation stage, gall midge fly, Asphondyliacapparis (Rubsaaman) infesting flower buds and young fruits andHelicoverpaarmigera (Hubner) feeding on matured green fruits are the important insect pests causing significant crop loss.The pest is known to infest both flower buds and young fruits resulting into malformation of flower buds and twisting of fruits.In order to manage these insect-pests a combi product consisting of imidacloprid and betacyfluthrin (Soloman 300 OD) was evaluated for its bio-efficacy, phytotoxicity and effect on predator activity.Imidacloprid, a systemic insecticide belonging to neo-nicotinoid group, is effective against insect pests such as aphids, whiteflies (sap feeders) and other insectsviz., termites and soil insects.Beta-Cyfluthrin is an insecticide of synthetic pyrethroid group which acts by contact action and ingestion. It acts on the insects' nervous system as sodium channel blocker consequently a disorder of the nervous system occurs leading finally to the death. The field experiments were taken up during 2015 and 2016 at the Main Agricultural Research Station of University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka, India.The trials were laid out in a Randomized Block Design (RBD) with three replications using popular land race of Byadagi crop variety.Results indicated that the product at 21.6 + 50.4% gai/ha (240 ml/ha) and 27.9 + 65% gai/ha (310 ml/ha) was found quite effective in controlling thrips (0.00 to 0.66 thrips per six leaves) as against the standard check insecticide recommended for thrips by the University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad wherein the density of thrips recorded was significantly higher (1.00 to 2.00 Nos./6 leaves). Similarly, the test insecticide was quite effective against other target insects, whiteflies, fruit borer and gall midge fly as indicated by lower insect population observed in the treatments as compared to standard insecticidal control. The predatory beetle activity was found to be normal in all experimental plots. Highest green fruit yield of 5100-5500 kg/ha was recorded in Soloman 300 OD applied crop at 310 ml/ha rate as compared to 4750 to 5050 kg/ha recorded in check. At present 6-8 sprays of insecticides are recommended for management of these insect-pests on the crop. If combi-products are used in pest management programmes, it is possible to reduce insecticide usages in crop ecosystem.

Keywords: Imidacloprid, Betacyfluthrin, gallmidge fly, thrips, chilli

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Ezzi Olfa, Bouafia Nabiha, Ammar Asma, Ben Cheikh Asma, Mahjoub Mohamed, Bannour Wadiaa, Achour Bechir, Khelif Abderrahim, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Background: In hematology/oncology, health care improvement has allowed increasingly aggressive management in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Nevertheless, these intensified procedures have been associated with higher risk of healthcare associated infections (HAIs). We undertook this study to estimate the burden of HAIs in the cancer patients in an onco -hematology unit in a Tunisian university hospital. Materials/Methods: A prospective, observational study, based on active surveillance for a period of 06 months from Mars through September 2016, was undertaken in the department of onco-hematology in a university hospital in Tunisia. Patients, who stayed in the unit for ≥ 48 h, were followed until hospital discharge. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria (CDC) for site-specific infections were used as standard definitions for HAIs. Results: One hundred fifty patients were included in the study. The gender distribution was 33.3% for girls and 66.6% boys. They have a mean age of 23.12 years (SD = 18.36 years). The main patient’s diagnosis is: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL): 48.7 %( n=73). The mean length of stay was 21 days +/- 18 days. Almost 8% of patients had an implantable port (n= 12), 34.9 % (n=52) had a lumber puncture and 42.7 % (n= 64) had a medullary puncture. Chemotherapy was instituted in 88% of patients (n=132). Eighty (53.3%) patients had neutropenia at admission. The incidence rate of HAIs was 32.66 % per patient; the incidence density was 15.73 per 1000 patient-days in the unit. Mortality rate was 9.3% (n= 14), and 50% of cases of death were caused by HAIs. The most frequent episodes of infection were: infection of skin and superficial mucosa (5.3%), pulmonary aspergillosis (4.6%), Healthcare associated pneumonia (HAP) (4%), Central venous catheter associated infection (4%), digestive infection (5%), and primary bloodstream infection (2.6%). Finally, fever of unknown origin (FUO) incidence rate was 14%. In case of skin and superficial infection (n= 8), 4 episodes were documented, and organisms implicated were Escherichia.coli, Geotricum capitatum and Proteus mirabilis. For pulmonary aspergillosis, 6 cases were diagnosed clinically and radiologically, and one was proved by positive aspergillus antigen in bronchial aspiration. Only one patient died due this infection. In HAP (6 cases), four episodes were diagnosed clinically and radiologically. No bacterial etiology was established in these cases. Two patients died due to HAP. For primary bloodstream infection (4 cases), implicated germs were Enterobacter cloacae, Geotricum capitatum, klebsiella pneumoniae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Conclusion: This type of prospective study is an indispensable tool for internal quality control. It is necessary to evaluate preventive measures and design control guides and strategies aimed to reduce the HAI’s rate and the morbidity and mortality associated with infection in a hematology/oncology unit.

Keywords: cohort prospective studies, healthcare associated infections, hematology oncology department, incidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Magdalena Maria Rost-Roszkowska, Alina Chachulska-Żymełka, Monika Tarnawska, Maria Augustyniak, Alina Kafel, Agnieszka Babczyńska

Abstract:

The digestive system of insects is composed of three distinct regions: fore-, mid- and hingut. The middle region (the midgut) is treated as one of the barriers which protects the organism against any stressors which originate from external environment, e.g. toxic metals. Such factors can activate the cell death in epithelial cells to preserve the entire tissue/organs against the degeneration. Different mechanisms involved in homeostasis maintenance have been described, but the studies of animals under field conditions do not give the opportunity to conclude about potential ability of subsequent generation to inherit the tolerance mechanisms. It is possible only by a multigenerational strain of an animal led under laboratory conditions, exposed to a selected toxic factor, present also in polluted ecosystems. The main purpose of the project was to check if changes, which appear in the midgut epithelium after Cd treatment, can be fixed during the following generations of insects with the special emphasis on apoptosis. As the animal for these studies we chose 5th larval stage of the beet armyworm Spodoptera exigua Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), which is one of pest of many vegetable crops. Animals were divided into some experimental groups: K, Cd, KCd, Cd1, Cd2, Cd3. A control group (K) fed a standard diet, and was conducted for XX generations, a cadmium group (Cd), fed on standard diet supplemented with cadmium (44 mg Cd per kg of dry weight of food) for XXX generations. A reference Cd group (KCd) has been initiated: control insects were fed with Cd supplemented diet (44 mg Cd per kg of dry weight of food). Experimental groups Cd1, Cd2, Cd3 developed from the control one: 5 mg Cd per kg of dry weight of food, 10 mg Cd per kg of dry weight of food, 20 mg Cd per kg of dry weight of food. We were interested in the activation of apoptosis during following generations in all experimental groups. Therefore, during the 1st year of the experiment, the measurements were done for 6 generations in all experimental group. The intensity and the course of apoptosis have been examined using transmission electron microscope (TEM), confocal microscope and flow cytometry. During apoptosis the cell started to shrink, extracellular spaces appeared between digestive and neighboring cells, the nucleus achieved a lobular shape. Eventually, the apoptotic cells was discharged into the midgut lumen. A quantitative analysis revealed that the number of apoptotic cells depends significantly on the generation, tissue and cadmium concentration in the insect rearing medium. In the following 6 generations, we observed that the percentage of apoptotic cells in the midguts from cadmium-exposed groups decreased gradually according to the following order of strains: Cd1, Cd2, Cd3 and KCd. At the same time, it was still higher than the percentage of apoptotic cells in the same tissues of the insects from the control and multigenerational cadmium strain. The results of our studies suggest that changes caused by cadmium treatment were preserved during 6-generational development of lepidopteran larvae. The study has been financed by the National Science Centre Poland, grant no 2016/21/B/NZ8/00831.

Keywords: cadmium, cell death, digestive system, ultrastructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: Mohammad Javaherian, Siamak Bashardoust Tajali, Monavvar Hadizadeh

Abstract:

Objective: This systematic review study was conducted to evaluate the effects of Pulsed Electromagnetic (PEMF) and Static Magnetic Fields (SMG) on pain relief and functional improvement in patients with musculoskeletal Low Back Pain (LBP). Methods: Seven electronic databases were searched by two researchers independently to identify the published Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on the efficacy of pulsed electromagnetic, static magnetic, and therapeutic nuclear magnetic fields. The identified databases for systematic search were Ovid Medline®, Ovid Cochrane RCTs and Reviews, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and EMBASE from 1968 to February 2016. The relevant keywords were selected by Mesh. After initial search and finding relevant manuscripts, all references in selected studies were searched to identify second hand possible manuscripts. The published RCTs in English would be included to the study if they reported changes on pain and/or functional disability following application of magnetic fields on chronic musculoskeletal low back pain. All studies with surgical patients, patients with pelvic pain, and combination of other treatment techniques such as acupuncture or diathermy were excluded. The identified studies were critically appraised and the data were extracted independently by two raters (M.J and S.B.T). Probable disagreements were resolved through discussion between raters. Results: In total, 1505 abstracts were found following the initial electronic search. The abstracts were reviewed to identify potentially relevant manuscripts. Seventeen possibly appropriate studies were retrieved in full-text of which 48 were excluded after reviewing their full-texts. Ten selected articles were categorized into three subgroups: PEMF (6 articles), SMF (3 articles), and therapeutic nuclear magnetic fields (tNMF) (1 article). Since one study evaluated tNMF, we had to exclude it. In the PEMF group, one study of acute LBP did not show significant positive results and the majority of the other five studies on Chronic Low Back Pain (CLBP) indicated its efficacy on pain relief and functional improvement, but one study with the lowest sessions (6 sessions during 2 weeks) did not report a significant difference between treatment and control groups. In the SMF subgroup, two articles reported near significant pain reduction without any functional improvement although more studies are needed. Conclusion: The PEMFs with a strength of 5 to 150 G or 0.1 to 0.3 G and a frequency of 5 to 64 Hz or sweep 7 to 7KHz can be considered as an effective modality in pain relief and functional improvement in patients with chronic low back pain, but there is not enough evidence to confirm their effectiveness in acute low back pain. To achieve the appropriate effectiveness, it is suggested to perform this treatment modality 20 minutes per day for at least 9 sessions. SMFs have not been reported to be substantially effective in decreasing pain or improving the function in chronic low back pain. More studies are necessary to achieve more reliable results.

Keywords: pulsed electromagnetic field, static magnetic field, magnetotherapy, low back pain

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Marzieh Nojomi, Azadeh Mottaghi, Arghavan Haj-Sheykholeslami, Narjes Khalili, Arash Tehrani Banihashemi

Abstract:

Background and objectives: Domestic violence is a global problem with severe consequences throughout the life of the victims. Iran’s Ministry of Health has launched an intimate partner violence (IPV) prevention program, integrated in the primary health care services since 2016. The present study is a part of this national program’s evaluation. In this section, we aimed to examine spousal abuse victims’ knowledge and attitude towards domestic violence before and after receivingthese services. Methods: To assess the knowledge and attitudes of victims, a questionnaire designed by Ahmadzadand colleagues in 2013 was used. This questionnaire includes 15 questions regarding knowledge in the fields of definition, epidemiology, and effects on children, outcomes, and prevention of domestic violence. To assess the attitudes, this questionnaire has 10 questions regarding the attitudes toward the causes, effects, and legal or protective support services of domestic violence. To assess the satisfaction and the effect of the program on prevention or reduction of spousal violence episodes, two more questions were also added. Since domestic violence prevalence differs in different parts of the country, we chose nine areas with the highest, the lowest, and moderate prevalence of IPVfor the study. The link to final electronic version of the questionnaire was sent to the randomly selected public rural or urban health centers in the nine chosen areas. Since the study had to be completed in one month, we used newly identified victims as pre-intervention group and people who had at least received one related service from the program (like psychiatric consultation, education about safety measures, supporting organizations and etc.) during the previous year, as our post- intervention group. Results: A hundred and ninety-two newly identified IPV victims and 267 victims who had at least received one related program service during the previous year entered the study. All of the victims were female. Basic characteristics of the two groups, including age, education, occupation, addiction, spouses’ age, spouses’ addiction, duration of the current marriage, and number of children, were not statistically different. In knowledge questions, post- intervention group had statistically better scores in the fields of domestic violence outcomes and its effects on children; however, in the remaining areas, the scores of both groups were similar. The only significant difference in the attitude across the two groups was in the field of legal or protective support services. From the 267 women who had ever received a service from the program, 91.8% were satisfied with the services, and 74% reported a decrease in the number of violent episodes. Conclusion: National IPV prevention program integrated in the primary health care services in Iran is effective in improving the knowledge of victims about domestic violence outcomes and its effects on children. Improving the attitude and knowledge of domestic violence victims about its causes and preventive measures needs more effective interventions. This program can reduce the number of IPV episodes between the spouses, and satisfaction among the service users is high.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, assessment, health services, efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Claudio Lamilla, Misael Riquelme, Victoria Saez, Fernanda Sepulveda, Monica Pavez, Leticia Barrientos

Abstract:

Biosurfactants are compounds synthesized by microorganisms that show various chemical structures, including glycolipids, lipopeptides, polysaccharide-protein complex, phospholipids, and fatty acids. These molecules have attracted attention in recent years due to the amphipathic nature of these compounds, which allows their application in various activities related to emulsification, foaming, detergency, wetting, dispersion and solubilization of hydrophobic compounds. Microorganisms that produce biosurfactants are ubiquitous, not only present in water, soil, and sediments but in extreme conditions of pH, salinity or temperature such as those present in Antarctic ecosystems. Due to this, it is of interest to study biosurfactants producing bacterial strains isolated from Antarctic environments, with the potential to be used in various biotechnological processes. The objective of this research was to characterize biosurfactants produced by bacterial strains isolated from Antarctic environments, with potential use in biotechnological processes for the cleaning of sites contaminated with hydrocarbons. The samples were collected from soils and sediments in the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, during the Antarctic Research Expedition INACH 2016, from both pristine and human occupied areas (influenced). The bacteria isolation was performed from solid R2A, M1 and LB media. The selection of strains producing biosurfactants was done by hemolysis test on blood agar plates (5%) and blue agar (CTAB). From 280 isolates, it was determined that 10 bacterial strains produced biosurfactants after stimulation with different carbon sources. 16S rDNA taxonomic markers, using the universal primers 27F-1492R, were used to identify these bacterias. Biosurfactants production was carried out in 250 ml flasks using Bushnell Hass liquid culture medium enriched with different carbon sources (olive oil, glucose, glycerol, and hexadecane) during seven days under constant stirring at 20°C. Each cell-free supernatant was characterized by physicochemical parameters including drop collapse, emulsification and oil displacement, as well as stability at different temperatures, salinity, and pH. In addition, the surface tension of each supernatant was quantified using a tensiometer. The strains with the highest activity were selected, and the production of biosurfactants was stimulated in six liters of culture medium. Biosurfactants were extracted from the supernatants with chloroform methanol (2:1). These biosurfactants were tested against crude oil and motor oil, to evaluate their displacement activity (detergency). The characterization by physicochemical properties of 10 supernatants showed that 80% of them produced the drop collapse, 60% had stability at different temperatures, and 90% had detergency activity in motor and olive oil. The biosurfactants obtained from two bacterial strains showed a high activity of dispersion of crude oil and motor oil with halos superior to 10 cm. We can conclude that bacteria isolated from Antarctic soils and sediments provide biological material of high quality for the production of biosurfactants, with potential applications in the biotechnological industry, especially in hydrocarbons -contaminated areas such as petroleum.

Keywords: antarctic, bacteria, biosurfactants, hydrocarbons

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Echo Wang, Andrew Li

Abstract:

Transparency could be defined as the voluntary release of information by institutions that is relevant to their own evaluation. Transparency based on information disclosure is recognised to be vital for the Third Sector, as civil society organisations are under pressure to become more transparent to answer the call for accountability. The growing importance of social enterprises as hybrid organisations emerging from the nexus of the public, the private and the Third Sector makes their transparency a topic worth exploring. However, transparency for social enterprises has not yet been studied: as a new form of organisation that combines non-profit missions with commercial means, it is unclear to both the practical and the academic world if the shift in operational logics from non-profit motives to for-profit pursuits has significantly altered their transparency. This is especially so in China, where informational governance and practices of information disclosure by local governments, industries and civil society are notably different from other countries. This study investigates the transparency-seeking behaviour of social enterprises in Greater China to understand what factors at the organisational level may affect their transparency, measured by their willingness to disclose financial information. We make use of the Survey on the Models and Development Status of Social Enterprises in the Greater China Region (MDSSGCR) conducted in 2015-2016. The sample consists of more than 300 social enterprises from the Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan. While most respondents have provided complete answers to most of the questions, there is tremendous variation in the respondents’ demonstrated level of transparency in answering those questions related to the financial aspects of their organisations, such as total revenue, net profit, source of revenue and expense. This has led to a lot of missing data on such variables. In this study, we take missing data as data. Specifically, we use missing values as a proxy for an organisation’s level of transparency. Our dependent variables are constructed from missing data on total revenue, net profit, source of revenue and cost breakdown. In addition, we also take into consideration the quality of answers in coding the dependent variables. For example, to be coded as being transparent, an organization must report the sources of at least 50% of its revenue. We have four groups of predictors of transparency, namely nature of organization, decision making body, funding channel and field of concentration. Furthermore, we control for an organisation’s stage of development, self-identity and region. The results show that social enterprises that are at their later stages of organisational development and are funded by financial means are significantly more transparent than others. There is also some evidence that social enterprises located in the Northeast region in China are less transparent than those located in other regions probably because of local political economy features. On the other hand, the nature of the organisation, the decision-making body and field of concentration do not systematically affect the level of transparency. This study provides in-depth empirical insights into the information disclosure behaviour of social enterprises under specific social context. It does not only reveal important characteristics of Third Sector development in China, but also contributes to the general understanding of hybrid institutions.

Keywords: China, information transparency, organisational behaviour, social enterprise

Procedia PDF Downloads 184