Search results for: call drop probability

Authors: Enemeri George Uweiyohowo

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Improved achievement with respect to output control of photovoltaic (PV) systems is one of the major focus of PV in recent times. This is evident to its low carbon emission and efficiency. Power failure or outage from commercial providers, in general, does not promote development to public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The need for a well-structured PV system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The purpose of this paper is to validate the maximum power point of an off-grid PV system taking into consideration the most effective tilt and orientation angles for PV's in the southern hemisphere. This paper is based on analyzing the system using a solar charger with MPPT from a pulse width modulation (PWM) perspective. The power conditioning device chosen is a solar charger with MPPT. The practical setup consists of a PV panel that is set to an orientation angle of 0∘N, with a corresponding tilt angle of 36∘, 26∘ and 16∘. Preliminary results include regression analysis (normal probability plot) showing the maximum power point in the system as well the best tilt angle for maximum power point tracking.

Keywords: poly-crystalline PV panels, information technology (IT), maximum power point tracking (MPPT), pulse width modulation (PWM)

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Authors: Foo Shen Hwang, Thomas Confrey, Stephen Scully, Barry Flannery

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Thermal characterization plays an important role in battery pack design. Lithium-ion batteries have to be maintained between 15-35 °C to operate optimally. Heat is generated (Q) internally within the batteries during both the charging and discharging phases. This can be quantified using several standard methods. The most common method of calculating the batteries heat generation is through the addition of both the joule heating effects and the entropic changes across the battery. In addition, such values can be derived by identifying the open-circuit voltage (OCV), nominal voltage (V), operating current (I), battery temperature (T) and the rate of change of the open-circuit voltage in relation to temperature (dOCV/dT). This paper focuses on experimental characterization and comparative modelling of the heat generation rate (Q) across several current discharge rates (0.5C, 1C, and 1.5C) of a 18650 cell. The analysis is conducted utilizing several non-linear mathematical functions methods, including polynomial, exponential, and power models. Parameter fitting is carried out over the respective function orders; polynomial (n = 3~7), exponential (n = 2) and power function. The generated parameter fitting functions are then used as heat source functions in a 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver under natural convection conditions. Generated temperature profiles are analyzed for errors based on experimental discharge tests, conducted at standard room temperature (25°C). Initial experimental results display low deviation between both experimental and CFD temperature plots. As such, the heat generation function formulated could be easier utilized for larger battery applications than other methods available.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, curve fitting, lithium-ion battery, voltage drop

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Authors: N. R. N. Idris, S. Baharom

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A meta-analysis may be performed using aggregate data (AD) or an individual patient data (IPD). In practice, studies may be available at both IPD and AD level. In this situation, both the IPD and AD should be utilised in order to maximize the available information. Statistical advantages of combining the studies from different level have not been fully explored. This study aims to quantify the statistical benefits of including available IPD when conducting a conventional summary-level meta-analysis. Simulated meta-analysis were used to assess the influence of the levels of data on overall meta-analysis estimates based on IPD-only, AD-only and the combination of IPD and AD (mixed data, MD), under different study scenario. The percentage relative bias (PRB), root mean-square-error (RMSE) and coverage probability were used to assess the efficiency of the overall estimates. The results demonstrate that available IPD should always be included in a conventional meta-analysis using summary level data as they would significantly increased the accuracy of the estimates. On the other hand, if more than 80% of the available data are at IPD level, including the AD does not provide significant differences in terms of accuracy of the estimates. Additionally, combining the IPD and AD has moderating effects on the biasness of the estimates of the treatment effects as the IPD tends to overestimate the treatment effects, while the AD has the tendency to produce underestimated effect estimates. These results may provide some guide in deciding if significant benefit is gained by pooling the two levels of data when conducting meta-analysis.

Keywords: aggregate data, combined-level data, individual patient data, meta-analysis

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Authors: Sireen Irsheid

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Despite concerted efforts to improve education attainment with progress in recent years, student achievement and attainment remain among the most significant challenges for school districts across the United States. Many scholars have argued that students who do not complete high school do not drop out of school voluntarily but are ‘pushed out’ of schools through multiple mechanisms related to structural and socioeconomic barriers, behavioral health challenges, pedagogical practices, and administrative procedures. Extant literature has shown that living in historically disadvantaged neighborhoods or attending under-resourced schools exacerbates student-level risk factors for grade retention and school pushout. Most efforts to respond to the school pushout phenomenon have focused on individual characteristics of students, with relatively little attention to addressing these multiple system-level characteristics related to perpetuating inequities. This study is built on a growing body of social justice-oriented research concerned with the systemic influences that shape the experiences and mental health challenges of young people. Specifically, this study examined how young people who have been experiencing education inequities make meaning and navigate the structural factors related to neighborhood and school disinvestment and access to resources and supports, and their risk for school pushout. Furthermore, schools as political, cultural, and ideologically reproductive spaces often serve as sites of resistance and can support students who are impacted by educational inequity. Study findings provide education, neighborhood, school psychology, social work practice, and policy considerations.

Keywords: education policy, mental health, school prison nexus, school pushout, structural trauma

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Authors: E. A. Alaswad, H. M. Choudhry, F. Z. Filimban

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Sickle Cell Anemia (SCA) is one type of blood diseases related to autosomal disorder. The sickle shaped red blood cells are the main cause of many problems in the blood vessels and capillaries. Aerva Javanica (J) and Ficus Palmata (P) are medicinal plants that have many popular uses and have been proved their efficacy. The aim of this study was to assess the antioxidants activity and the antisickling effect of J and P extractions. The period of this study, air-dried leaves of J, and P plants were ground and the active components were extracted by maceration in water (W) and methanol (M) as solvents. The antioxidants activity of JW, PW, JM, and PM were assessed by way of the radical scavenging method using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH). To determine the antisickling effect of J and P extracts. 20 samples were collected from sickle cell anemia patients. Different concentrations of J and P extracts (200 and 110 μg/mL) were added on the sample and incubated. A drop of each sample was examined with light microscope. Normal and sickled RBCs were calculated and expressed as the percent of sickling. The stabilization effect of the extracts was measured by the osmotic fragility test for erythrocytes. The finding suggests as estimated by DPPH method, all the extracts showed an antioxidant activity with a significant inhibition of the DPPH radicals. PM has the least IC50% with 71.49 μg/ml while JM was the most with 408.49 μg/ml. Sickle cells treated with extracts at different concentrations significantly reduced the percentage of sickling compering to control samples. However, JM 200 μg/mL give the highest anti-sickling affect with 17.4% of sickling compared to control 67.5 of sickling while PM at 200 μg/mL showed the highest membrane cell stability. In a conclusion, the results showed that J and P extracts have antisickling effects. Therefore, the Aerva javanica and Ficus palmata may have a role in SCA management and a good impact on the patient's lives.

Keywords: Aerva javanica, antioxidant, antisickling, Ficus palmata, sickle cell anemia

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Authors: Gulsah Olgun, Ozgur Bozdag, Yildirim Ertutar

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This paper mainly focuses on performance assessment of buildings by associating the damage level with the damage cost. For this purpose a methodology is explained and applied to the representative mid-rise concrete building residing in Izmir. In order to consider uncertainties in occurrence of earthquakes, the structural analyses are conducted for all possible earthquakes in the region through the hazard curve. By means of the analyses, probability of the structural response being in different limit states are obtained and used to calculate expected damage cost. The expected damage cost comprises diverse cost components related to earthquake such as cost of casualties, replacement or repair cost of building etc. In this study, inter-story drift is used as an effective response variable to associate expected damage cost with different damage levels. The structural analysis methods performed to obtain inter story drifts are response spectrum method as a linear one, accurate push-over and time history methods to demonstrate the nonlinear effects on loss estimation. Comparison of the results indicates that each method provides similar values of expected damage cost. To sum up, this paper explains an approach which enables to minimize the expected damage cost of buildings and relate performance level to damage cost.

Keywords: expected damage cost, limit states, loss estimation, performance based design

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Authors: Muhammad Jawad Hashmi

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The idea of nuclear terrorism is as old as nuclear weapons but the global concerns of likelihood of nuclear terrorism are uncertain. Post 9/11 trends manifest that terrorists are believers of massive causalities. Innovation in terrorist’s tactics, sophisticated weaponry, vulnerability, theft and smuggling of nuclear/radiological material, connections between terrorists, black market and rough regimes are signaling seriousness of upcoming challenges as well as global trends of “terror-transnationalism.” Furthermore, the International-Atomic-Energy-Agency’s database recorded 2734 incidents regarding misuse, unauthorized possession, trafficking of nuclear material etc. Since, this data also includes incidents from south Asia, so, there is every possibility to claim that such illicit activities may increase in future, mainly due to expansion of nuclear industry in South Asia. Moreover, due to such mishaps the region is vulnerable to threats of nuclear terrorism. This is also a reason that the region is in limelight along with issues such as rapidly growing nuclear arsenals, nuclear safety and security, terrorism and political instability. With this backdrop, this study is aimed to investigate the prevailing threats and challenges in South Asia vis a vis nuclear safety and security. A comparative analysis of the overall capabilities would be done to identify the areas of cooperation to eliminate the probability of nuclear/radiological terrorism in the region.

Keywords: nuclear terrorism, safety, security, South Asia, india, Pakistan

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Hilal

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The main purpose of the present study is to assess the role of active tectonics in influencing the emanation level of soil radon across two tectonically active structures of the Northern Dead Sea Fault (NDSF) in northwestern Syria: namely, the Qastoon and Al-Harif fault segments. The radon measurements were basically directed by the results drawn from earlier studies of archaeoseismic and paleoseismic investigation in Al-Harif, besides integrated geophysical and morphotectonic survey at the Qastoon site. In view of that, a total of 80 soil gas radon points were measured in this work with a sampling depth of 75 cm, using the AlphaGUARD PQ 2000Pro radon detector. The background range of normal radon emission from local soil was determined in area located away from the influence of the tectonic disturbances. The obtained radon data were statistically analyzed, and the mean values have been standardized in terms of probability of magnitude, which enhances the comparison process and so facilitating the separation of normal radon variations from other anomalous or geotectonic related values. The overall results revealed remarkable occurrences of fault-associated radon anomalies with maximum peak values of ~6 to 7 times above the background, trending in accordance with the predicted traces of the fault ruptures at the Qastoon and Al-Harif, respectively.

Keywords: soil gas radon, active tectonic structure, northern dead sea fault, western Syria

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Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos

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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.

Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Chenyu Huang, Minrong Cui, Hua Fang, Luqing Zhang, Yunlong Yu

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The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have become a pressing issue in global agricultural production. However, understanding how these ARGs spread across different spatial scales, especially when exposed to both pesticides and antibiotics, has remained a challenge. Here, metagenomic assembly and binning methodologies were used to determine the mechanism of ARG propagation within soil-lettuce systems exposed to both fungicides and antibiotics. The results of our study showed that the presence of fungicide and antibiotic stresses had a significant impact on certain bacterial communities. Notably, we observed that ARGs were primarily transferred from the soil to the plant through plasmids. The selective pressure exerted by fungicides and antibiotics contributed to an increase in unique ARGs present on lettuce leaves. Moreover, ARGs located on chromosomes and plasmids followed different transmission patterns. The presence of diverse selective pressures, a result of compound treatments involving antibiotics and fungicides, amplifies this phenomenon. Consequently, there is a higher probability of bacteria developing multi-antibiotic resistance under the combined pressure of fungicides and antibiotics. In summary, our findings highlight that combined fungicide and antibiotic treatments are more likely to drive the acquisition of ARGs within the soil-plant system and may increase the risk of human ingestion.

Keywords: soil-lettuce system, fungicide, antibiotic, ARG, transmission

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: M. A. Bayona, E. M. Cordoba, V. R. Guiza

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Highly porous carbon-based foams are used in a wide range of industrial applications, which include absorption, catalyst supports, thermal insulation, and biomaterials, among others. Particularly, silicon carbide (SiC) based foams have shown exceptional potential for catalyst support applications, due to their chemical inertness, large frontal area, low resistance to flow, low-pressure drop, as well as high resistance to temperature and corrosion. These properties allow the use of SiC foams in harsh environments with high durability. Commonly, SiC foams are fabricated from polysiloxane, SiC powders and phenolic resins, which can be costly or highly toxic to the environment. In this work, we propose a low-cost method for the fabrication of highly porous, three-dimensional SiC foams via template replica, using recycled polymeric sponges as sacrificial templates. A sucrose-based resin combined with a Si-containing pre-ceramic polymer was used as the precursor. Polymeric templates were impregnated with the precursor solution, followed by thermal treatment at 1500 °C under an inert atmosphere. Several synthesis parameters, such as viscosity and composition of the precursor solution (Si: Sucrose molar ratio), and the porosity of the template, were evaluated in terms of their effect on the morphology, composition and mechanical resistance of the resulting SiC foams. The synthesized composite foams exhibited a highly porous (50-90%) and interconnected structure, containing 30-90% SiC with a mechanical compressive strength between 0.01-0.1 MPa. The methodology employed here allowed the fabrication of foams with a varied concentration of SiC and with morphological and mechanical properties that contribute to the development of materials of high relevance in the industry, while using low-cost, renewable sources such as table sugar, and providing a recycling alternative for polymeric sponges.

Keywords: catalyst support, polymer replica technique, reticulated porous ceramics, silicon carbide

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Authors: Mohammad K. Rumjaun, Sana Amjed, Muhammad A. Ghazi, Safa G. Attar, Jason Raw

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Background: National Health Service (NHS) in England is one of the leading healthcare systems in the world and it heavily relies on the recruitment of overseas doctors. 30.7% of the doctors currently serving in NHS are overseas doctors. Most of these doctors do not receive the essential induction required to work in the NHS when they first arrive and therefore, they mostly struggle to work effectively in the first few months of their new jobs as compared to UK graduates. In our hospital, the clinical need for a dedicated induction programme for the International Medical Graduates (IMGs) was identified for their initial settling period and this programme was designed to achieve this. Methods: A questionnaire was designed for the previous 7 IMGs (Group 1) in order to identify the difficulties they faced in their initial phase. Thereafter, an induction programme consisting of presentations explaining the NHS and hospital framework, communication skills practice sessions, the clinical ceiling of care and patient simulation training was implemented for 6 new IMGs (Group 2). Another survey was done and compared with the previous. Results: After this programme, group 2 required only 1 week to understand the complexity of the IT systems as compared 3 weeks in group 1. 83% of group 2 was well-supported for their on-call duties after this programme as compared to 29% and 100% of group 2 was aware of their role in the job after the induction as compared to 0%. Furthermore, group 2 was able to function independently and confidently in their roles after only 1 month as compared to an average of 3 months for group 1. After running the PDSA cycles, our results show clear evidence that this programme has tremendously benefitted the IMGs in settling in the NHS. The IMGs really appreciated this initiative and have given positive feedback. Conclusion: Leaving your home country to begin your career in a different country is not an easy transition and undoubtedly, everyone struggles. It is important to invest in a well-structured induction programme for the IMGs in the initial phase of their jobs as this will improve not only their confidence and efficacy but also patients’ safety.

Keywords: induction programme, international medical graduates, NHS, overseas doctors struggles.

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Authors: Nneka U. Igboeli, Maxwell O. Adibe

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Iron and folate supplementation in pregnancy are important interventions that prevent maternal anaemia and fetal anomaly. Thus, daily oral doses of iron and folic acid are recommended throughout pregnancy as part of antenatal care. However, low adherence has been a major drawback leading to low effectiveness of these programs. The effect of mobile text message reminders to pregnant women to take their routine medications on adherence was evaluated in this study. The first 100 women who consented to the study were recruited and randomized to either receive a text message reminder on adherence to routine medications or not. Adherence was assessed using the 8-item Modified Morisky Adherence Scale (8-MMAS). The folders of successfully recruited women were tagged with the a study number assigned to each of them. The womens’ phone numbers were collected and these were used to send text messages reminders on adhering to routine drugs only to women in the intervention group. The text messages were sent three times per week for a period of four weeks with an adherence reassessment at the one month follow-up antenatal visit for recruited women. At one month follow-up, the lost to follow-up were 6 (16%) women for the intervention group and 17 (34%) for the control group. The across group mean difference in adherence score was 0.07 (-0.96 – 1.10) at baseline and 0.3 (-0.31 – 0.92) after intervention, both insignificant at p > 0.05. The within group change were increases of 0.58 (0.00 – 1.16) (p = 0.05) from baseline for the intervention group and a 0.35 (-0.51 – 1.20) (p = 0.395) for the control group. Non-significant increase in adherence scores were recorded for both groups. However, the increase in adherence scores of women in the intervention group was greater and may be potentially transformed into more positive results if the study period is increased with possibly reduced study drop-outs shows great promise for more positive results.

Keywords: adherence, mobile phone, pregnant women, reminders

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Authors: Joshua Paul Steimel, Michael Pappas, Ethan Hall

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Particle-particle interactions are critical in determining the state of an active matter system. Unique and ubiquitous non-equilibrium behavior like swarming, vortexing, spiraling, and much more is governed by interactions between active units or particles. In hybrid active-passive matter systems, the attraction between spinning active units in a 2D monolayer of passive particles is controlled by the mechanical behavior of the passive monolayer. We demonstrate here that the range and dynamics of this attraction can be controlled by changing the composition of the passive monolayer by adding dopant passive particles. These dopant passive particles effectively pin the movement of dislocation motion in the passive media and reduce the probability of defect motion required to erode the bridge of passive particles between active spinners, thus reducing the range of attraction. Additionally, by adding an out of plane component to the magnetic moment and creating a top-like motion a short range repulsion emerges between the top-like particle. At inter-top distances less than four particle diameters apart, the tops repel but beyond that, distance attract up to 13 particle diameters apart. The tops were also able to locally and transiently anneal the passive monolayer. Thus we demonstrate that by tuning several parameters of the hybrid active matter system, one can observe very different emergent behavior.

Keywords: active matter, colloids, ferromagnetic, annealing

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Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Shaista Maseeh

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English Literature from the beginning itself has had psychological, social and environment concerns. Virgil, Shakespeare, John Milton, William Wordsworth to the most current Robert Hass have shown and proved their environmental and ecological interests as well as distress related to its loss. Pastoral literature is also one such genre that links literature with environment. Thanks to the contemporary literary theories that they successfully are relating Literature formally to the subjects other than written text. One of such literary theory is 'Ecocriticism.' It stands under the umbrella of the Economics term, Sustainable Development,' or it can also be understood as an ecological extension of it. Ecocriticism helps the reader to study the dynamic relation between literature and our degrading environment. It draws attention towards the ravaged condition of nature and animals, that how nature is exploited by human beings for their own benefit leaving nature at a repairable loss. For instance, deforestation is reducing the size of forest every year, injuring permanently flora, fauna and also the habitat of animals. This paper will study the ecological and environmental concerns in the latest novel by Pakistani British writer Kamila Shamsie, A God in every Stone (2014). The book is not only a literary masterpiece in elegant prose, but also a novel posing a lot of questions about 'nature and environment' in general and 'animals' in particular. It gives the glimpses of the interesting history of Temple of Zeus in Greece and Ancient Caria, and covers many episodes of history the Indian freedom struggle. In course of novel's narrative Kamila Shamsie poses disturbing question about environmental abuse, about how human beings are more 'beasts' than so call beasts, poor animals. She also glorifies the simplicity of past. The novel has enough instances to prove Shamsie's positive stand on saving the earth that is being more abused than used by human beings. This paper will provide an ecocritical approach to study A God in Every Stone (2014).

Keywords: animals, ecocriticism, environment, nature

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Authors: Raghunath Arnab

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The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

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Authors: Sahana Selladurai, Christine DeWolf

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Lung surfactant comprises a lipid-protein film that coats the alveolar surface and serves to prevent alveolar collapse upon repeated breathing cycles. Exposure of lung surfactant to high concentrations of airborne pollutants, for example tropospheric ozone in smog, can chemically modify the lipid and protein components. These chemical changes can impact the film functionality by decreasing the film’s collapse pressure (minimum surface tension attainable), altering it is mechanical and flow properties and modifying lipid reservoir formation essential for re-spreading of the film during the inhalation process. In this study, we use Langmuir monolayers spread at the air-water interface as model membranes where the compression and expansion of the film mimics the breathing cycle. The impact of ozone exposure on model lung surfactant films is measured using a Langmuir film balance, Brewster angle microscopy and a pendant drop tensiometer as a function of film and sub-phase composition. The oxidized films are analyzed using mass spectrometry where lipid and protein oxidation products are observed. Oxidation is shown to reduce surface activity, alter line tension (and film morphology) and in some cases visibly reduce the viscoelastic properties of the film when compared to controls. These reductions in functionality of the films are highly dependent on film and sub-phase composition, where for example, the effect of oxidation is more pronounced when using a physiologically relevant buffer as opposed to water as the sub-phase. These findings can lead to a better understanding on the impact of continuous exposure to high levels of ozone on the mechanical process of breathing, as well as understanding the roles of certain lung surfactant components in this process.

Keywords: lung surfactant, oxidation, ozone, viscoelasticity

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Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

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Authors: Sony, Ashok N. Bhaskarwar

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Production of hydrogen from a renewable raw material without any co-synthesis of harmful greenhouse gases is the current need for sustainable energy solutions. The sulfur-iodine (SI) thermochemical cycle, using intermediate chemicals, is an efficient process for producing hydrogen at a much lower temperature than that required for the direct splitting of water. No net byproduct forms in the cycle. Hydrogen iodide (HI) decomposition is a crucial reaction in this cycle, as the product, hydrogen, forms only in this step. It is an endothermic, reversible, and equilibrium-limited reaction. The theoretical equilibrium conversion at 550°C is just a meagre of 24%. There is a growing interest, therefore, in enhancing the HI conversion to near-equilibrium values at lower reaction temperatures and by possibly improving the rate. The reaction is relatively slow without a catalyst, and hence catalytic decomposition of HI has gained much significance. Bi-metallic Ni-Co, Ni-Mn, Co-Mn, and tri-metallic Ni-Co-Mn catalysts over zirconia support were tested for HI decomposition reaction. The catalysts were synthesized via a sol-gel process wherein Ni was 3wt% in all the samples, and Co and Mn had equal weight ratios in the Co-Mn catalyst. Powdered X-ray diffraction and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller surface area characterizations indicated the polycrystalline nature and well-developed mesoporous structure of all the samples. The experiments were performed in a vertical laboratory-scale packed bed reactor made of quartz, and HI (55 wt%) was fed along with nitrogen at a WHSV of 12.9 hr⁻¹. Blank experiments at 500°C for HI decomposition suggested conversion of less than 5%. The activities of all the different catalysts were checked at 550°C, and the highest conversion of 23.9% was obtained with the tri-metallic 3Ni-Co-Mn-ZrO₂ catalyst. The decreasing order of the performance of catalysts could be expressed as: 3Ni-Co-Mn-ZrO₂ > 3Ni-2Co-ZrO₂ > 3Ni-2Mn-ZrO₂ > 2.5Co-2.5Mn-ZrO₂. The tri-metallic catalyst remained active till 360 mins at 550°C without any observable drop in its activity/stability. Among the explored catalyst compositions, the tri-metallic catalyst certainly has a better performance for HI conversion when compared to the bi-metallic ones. Owing to their low costs and ease of preparation, these trimetallic catalysts could be used for large-scale hydrogen production.

Keywords: sulfur-iodine cycle, hydrogen production, hydrogen iodide decomposition, bi-, and tri-metallic catalysts

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Authors: Pandega Gama Mahardika, Muhammad Rifki Al Iksan, Datuk Fachrul Razy

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Oil And Gas Tanker Driver is a high-risk jobdesc. drivers drive with sleep circadian rhythm disturbances. Therefore, FAMOUS (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System) conducted a diagnostic test on the effectiveness and accuracy of the Psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) in the field to capture the fatigue level of Oil And Gas Tanker Driver. Fatigue examination with the PVP method for 3 minutes using the Pertamina FAMOUS system (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System). The research sample was Oil And Gas Tanker Driver Elnusa petrofin drivers as many as 2205 people. PVT is categorical data that states a driver has a low or high fatigue level. The quality of sleep at home was recorded by filling in a score of 1 = not well, 2 = not well, 3 = well, per person. A total of 1852 (84%) driver had a low fatigue level, while 353 (16%) driver had a high fatigue level. Poor sleep quality was experienced by 68 (79%) driver who had a high fatigue level. Oil And Gas Tanker Driver who slept soundly at home as many as 1804 (87%) had a low fatigue level. The correlation coefficient of sleep quality home and fatigue level is significant because it shows a probability value of 0.00 (p <5%). Fatigue level can be diagnosed through examining sleep quality, using FAMOUS Program for occupational medicine, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

Keywords: psychomotor vigilance test, fatigue, sleep, oil and gas tanker driver drivers, pertamina FAMOUS

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Authors: P. Mambanga, Goon, L. O. Amusa

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The purpose of the study was to investigate the socio-cultural factors hindering sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science, University of Venda. A descriptive survey of 100 female student selected by simple random sampling was used and utilises the close ended questionnaire designed in a likert format was use for data collection. Face and content validity was employed in which the supervisor went through the instrument and correct and accept it thus checking the validity of the instrument. The test-retest approach was used to test the reliability of the instrument. Ethical considerations were ensured and confidentiality respected. Data was collected and presented in tables and results interpreted. Chi square which is a measure of non-parametric investigation was employed in order to analyse the observed and expected scores, with the probability value was set at 0.05 levels of significance on a two-tailed test of the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings of the study established significant socio-cultural factors that hinder female sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science. The study concluded that the low level participation of female students at the University of Venda might be as a result of socio-cultural factors.

Keywords: female students, sport participation, University of Venda, biokinetic

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Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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Authors: S. Wakim, M. Nemer, B. Zeghondy, B. Ghannam, C. Bouallou

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Designing the optimal heat exchanger is still an essential objective to be achieved. Parametrical optimization involves the evaluation of the heat exchanger dimensions to find those that best satisfy certain objectives. This method contributes to an enhanced design rather than an optimized one. On the contrary, topology optimization finds the optimal structure that satisfies the design objectives. The huge development in metal additive manufacturing allowed topology optimization to find its way into engineering applications especially in the aerospace field to optimize metal structures. Using topology optimization in 3d heat and mass transfer problems requires huge computational time, therefore coupling it with CFD simulations can reduce this it. However, existed CFD models cannot be coupled with topology optimization. The CFD model must allow creating a uniform mesh despite the initial geometry complexity and also to swap the cells from fluid to solid and vice versa. In this paper, a porous media approach compatible with topology optimization criteria is developed. It consists of modeling the fluid region of the heat exchanger as porous media having high porosity and similarly the solid region is modeled as porous media having low porosity. The switching from fluid to solid cells required by topology optimization is simply done by changing each cell porosity using a user defined function. This model is tested on a plate and fin heat exchanger and validated by comparing its results to experimental data and simulations results. Furthermore, this model is used to perform a material reallocation based on local criteria to optimize a plate and fin heat exchanger under a constant heat duty constraint. The optimized fin uses 20% fewer materials than the first while the pressure drop is reduced by about 13%.

Keywords: computational methods, finite element method, heat exchanger, porous media, topology optimization

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Authors: Jurica Hižak

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Getting to know the agents, i.e., identifying the free riders in a population, can be considered one of the main challenges in establishing cooperation. An ordinary memory-one agent such as Tit-for-tat may learn “who is who” in the population through direct interactions. Past experiences serve them as a landmark to know with whom to cooperate and against whom to retaliate in the next encounter. However, this kind of learning is risky and expensive. A cheaper and less painful way to detect free riders may be achieved by gossiping. For this reason, as part of this research, a special type of Tit-for-tat agent was designed – a “Gossip-Tit-for-tat” agent that can share data with other agents of its kind. The performances of both strategies, ordinary Tit-for-tat and Gossip-Tit-for-tat, against Always-defect have been compared in the finite-game framework of the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma via the Moran process. Agents were able to move in a random-walk fashion, and they were programmed to play Prisoner’s Dilemma each time they met. Moreover, at each step, one randomly selected individual was eliminated, and one individual was reproduced in accordance with the Moran process of selection. In this way, the size of the population always remained the same. Agents were selected for reproduction via the roulette wheel rule, i.e., proportionally to the relative fitness of the strategy. The absorption probability was calculated after the population had been absorbed completely by cooperators, which means that all the states have been occupied and all of the transition probabilities have been determined. It was shown that gossip increases absorption probabilities and therefore enhances the evolution of cooperation in the population.

Keywords: cooperation, gossip, indirect reciprocity, Moran process, prisoner’s dilemma, tit-for-tat

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Authors: Kiana Keshavarz, Carmen Jaca, María J. Álvarez

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The shift to a circular economy necessitates a substantial change in consumer behavior, a complex and unpredictable actor that proves challenging to guide toward sustainability. This systematic literature review addresses the pivotal role that consumers play in propelling a circular economy, emphasizing the critical gap between positive attitudes and responsible actions. In this review, we utilized two prominent databases, Scopus and Web of Science, during the months of July and August 2023. A comprehensive screening process considered 467 articles, ultimately including 115 in the study for detailed analysis. Recognizing the transformative potential of consumer behavior, the study examines three key phases of consumer interaction with products —pre-purchasing decision, careful usage, and post-use management—identifying consumer-centric strategies that boost sustainability in each phase. Contrary to the prevailing emphasis on post-management strategies in society, the synthesis highlights the profound impact of strategies enacted during the pre-purchasing decision phase. In the investigation of the persistent attitude-behavior gap, factors influencing this gap and impeding consumers from engaging in sustainable actions are identified based on behavioral theories. Subsequently, strategies aimed at diminishing barriers and boosting motivators, as outlined in the literature, are presented. Recognizing the transformative potential of consumer behavior, the study underscores the pivotal roles of policymakers, businesses, and governments in fostering a more sustainable future. Ultimately, there is a call for further research to enhance the depth of analysis. This could be achieved through a more focused approach, such as narrowing the scope to a specific industry or applying a specific behavioral theory.

Keywords: circular economy, consumer behavior, sustainability, attitude-behavior gap, systematic literature review

Procedia PDF Downloads 62